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Lejun James Shao is the founder of www.myIRAs.net (http://www.myIRAs.net/), WhitePine Investment Inc of USA, and CEO of WhitePine Software Inc, Beijing, China. He was the top finisher in MSN's 1st US One Million Dollar Investment Contest, "Strategy Open Tournament," with a +45.88%... More
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  • Market Drop Is Imminent - It Could Start From Tomorrow 4 comments
    Oct 28, 2013 9:36 AM | about stocks: SPY, VXX

    Market moved up last week with Dow leading the gains, up 1.11%, followed by S&P 500's 0.88% move. NASDAQ trailed with 0.74% gain. So far this month, US stocks have another impressive runs as S&P 500 gained 4.65%, Nasdaq rose 4.56% and Dow returned 2.91%.

    Market started its tireless run from last November. It moved up seven months in a row. S&P 500's monthly gains, for example, were

    11/2012 - 0.28%
    12/2012 - 0.71%
    01/2013 - 5.04%
    02/2013 - 1.11%
    03/2013 - 3.60%
    04/2013 - 1.81%
    05/2013 - 2.98%

    But the run stopped in June and has been in trading range since then

    06/2013 - -1.50%
    07/2013 - 4.95%
    08/2013 - -3.13%
    09/2013 - 2.97%
    10/2013 - ?

    and now is at the top of its recent trading range and the drop will be imminent. See S&P 500 daily chart below

    My View - Market Drop is Imminent - It could start from tomorrow

    Here is Why

    1. The recent strength on Nasdaq is only supported by huge moves from few big blues such as GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT etc. But most tech stocks have been weak and this is particularly true for semiconductor, telecommunication, solar and new energy stocks. Many dropped big last week even market was up. The list is long:

    ATML, ALTR, CREE, RMBS, MU, FIO, OVTI, ONNN, MVDA, RFMD, CSCO, CIEN, JDSU, TQNT, FORM, STM, FSL, CY, SLAB, MLNX, BRCM, ADI, AMD, XLNX, SIMG, VTSS, PSMI, AMCC, PXLW, DIOD, PMCS, SWKS, RBCN, HIMX, MCHP, REGI, GPRE, GEVO, RVLT, GRPN, etc.

    On the other hand, gold stocks have been strong recently.

    2. The big blue tech stocks are all topped:

    MSFT - $35.73. Up $2.01 after company reported its earnings. MSFT has been in $27.50 - $35 most of the time since 2001 and now it is at the top of its 13 year trading range. We will see stock gradually moving down in the following weeks;

    AMZN - $363.39. Up nearly 10% after it released its earnings and reached all time high. On the other hand, stock tended to move lower after earning release as can be seen in previous quarters. That means, stock topped.

    GOOG - $1015.20. This stock is still quite strong and we will see how it will perform in the following weeks.

    3. Most of DJI 30 stocks are topped

    Eleven stocks are now at/near the tops of their recent trading ranges: CVS, DIS, INTC, JNJ, PFE, PG, T, WMT, XOM, GS, MSFT

    Three stocks are now at the tops of their uptrend channel: MMM, TRV, V,

    Seven stocks are or started their down trend: CSCO, HD, IBM, KO, MCD, UTH, UTX

    Five stocks are strong with break-out but may face pull backs: BA, AXP, GE, NKE, DD.

    On the other hand, VXX, the reverse of S&P 500 futures, showed the strength last week with no new lows even S&P 500 was up.

    Disclosure: I am long VXX.

    Stocks: SPY, VXX
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Comments (4)
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  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (5858) | Send Message
     
    js,
    interesting info,

     

    i can add to the recent overbought technicals that are now in play

     

    Both RSI and the Stochastics...

     

    Similar to the last three times the S & p has made new highs in MAy , Aug & Sept.

     

    I expect similar action this time taking the S & P down only 3-4%, if that , maybe 1690 - 1700 ? --setting up for the run to continue into year end .

     

    my .02

     

    Best of Luck
    28 Oct 2013, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • jsIRA
    , contributor
    Comments (2973) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yes, our short term target is 1,660.
    28 Oct 2013, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Regarded Solutions
    , contributor
    Comments (18706) | Send Message
     
    How did this work for ya?
    14 Jul 2014, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • jsIRA
    , contributor
    Comments (2973) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » My Portfolios beat the market by big margins in all time frames.

     

    My short term play gained 72.25% since April this year;

     

    $5K Portfolio up from $5K in June 1, 2009 to $59,038 as of today. Up 1,080% in 5 years;

     

    Core Portfolio grew from $223K in Feb 2009 to $935K as of today in 5 year and 4 months.
    14 Jul 2014, 07:03 PM Reply Like
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