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Sandy Lighthouse
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Self employed for 35 years in construction. PHD from school of hard knocks. Tend to have a macro macro perspective.
  • My Fearless New Years Predictions: The worst that can happen is that I will be proven to be a complete idiot. 0 comments
    Dec 27, 2011 2:26 PM

    1. The housing market is bottoming nationwide right now. I've been in residential construction for 35 years, and this a purely instinctive call. If you have any interest in real estate, the next year offers a once in a lifetime opportunity of low prices and low interest rates.


    2. The national economy will grow at a higher than expected rate for the foreseeable future. Obama's Keynesian economic moves, ugly as they were, have worked. Large industrial economies need a source of cheap energy to grow, and worldwide natural gas discoveries have taken that issue off the table. The European situation is all noise and no signal. The German's aren't stupid. The Euro will will depreciate against other currencies. Great time to vacation in Europe for Americans.


    3. Treasuries and bonds will suffer as money flows into equities and real estate. There's a massive amount of "fear" money on the sidelines. Once it becomes clear that sustained economic growth and profits are on the horizon, a surge of money will lift worldwide equity markets. If you’ve got a serious tolerance for risk, invest in European equities now. I don't.


    4. Obama will win by a 5-10% landslide against any Republican candidate.
    Economy: Point to Obama once my #2 prediction becomes clear. 

    Foreign policy: Point to Obama for ending Iraq war and killing Bin Laden. Didn't start any wars (not easy for some Presidents). 

    Family values: Point to Obama for walking not talking- check out his family.
    Obama 3, Republicans 0. I'm gonna vote for Ron Paul: it's a vote for true conservativisim AND Obama.


    5. Global warming will be totally discredited in 3-5 years. Sea levels won't rise as they already haven't. Huge dynamic systems like the planet earth are impossible to accurately account for and explain in the past, much less predict in the future. Statistical deviations are the norm and have no trend predicting value.


    6. Transportation in the US will remain predominantly the internal combustion automobile for the next twenty years. Natural gas will take over commercial and governmental fleets due to cost and emission advantages. NG filling stations will be built in the eastern US first due to population density and supply proximity. Then consumer owned NG vehicles will take off. Hybrid vehicles will remain a niche market due to cost disadvantages and lack of further efficiency gains. Electric vehicles will never get past niche market status due to cost and lack of battery efficiency gains. Fuel cell vehicles will eventually follow on the NG infrastructure created for internal combustion vehicles.


    7. Photo voltaics will continue to be “five years from large scale profitability” for another twenty years, just like they’ve been since 1980. PV’s compete directly with the fossil fuel of the day, which is now natural gas. Investing in PV companies is a bet on government subsidies. Good luck.

    8. Commodities are my weak point so I'm just guessing...  Precious metals will get clobbered. Industrial metals will flatten as new supply comes online. Oil will be range bound as natural gas infrastructure gets built. Ag commodities will go up over time due to demand and productivity increase constraints.


    Well, as my uncle Ken used to say, "If you can't dazzle them with your brilliance, baffle them with your BS!". Have a great New Year!

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
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