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John A. Gordon is Principal and Founder of Pacific Management Consulting Group (http://www.pacificmanagementconsultinggroup.com), an independent restaurant analyst providing research and niche earnings analysis, management consulting and advisory expertise to those who need to know about chain... More
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  • Restaurant Earnings Fundamentals: Six Standouts 0 comments
    Sep 4, 2012 11:32 AM | about stocks: EAT, TXRH, RUTH, PLKI, PNRA, PZZA

    Restaurants Earning Fundamentals, Q2 2012: Outstanding OPTEMPO

    In watching the Q2 2012 restaurant space earnings, six brands interested us by exhibiting what we define as outstanding operating tempo (OPTEMPO). Not only significant EPS beats of $.02 or more (meets or a penny over doesn't excite us much), but also positive traffic and positive early peek Q3 trends-that early Q3 trend prerelease info that some companies give. This quarter's entire group has performed well recently.

    · Brinker (NYSE:EAT)

    · Texas Roadhouse (NASDAQ:TXRH)

    · Ruth Chris (NASDAQ:RUTH)

    · Popeye's (AFCE)

    · Panera (NASDAQ:PNRA)

    · Papa John's (NASDAQ:PZZA)

    Common Denominators: Two casual dining operators, one fine dine operator, one bakery/café, one QSR pizza, one Chicken QSR operator. Two of the six are steak centric (RUTH, TXRH), with one other making inroads into higher steak menu mix (EAT). No big restaurant conglomerates (ala' DRI) involved, but of the two with two brands under the HOLDCO, one brand greatly predominates over the other (EAT: Chill's v. Maggiano's) and RUTH (Ruth Chris v. Mitchell's).
     

    • Steak centric: we noted in 2011 that steak centric operators did well, no doubt by the improving travel/expense account traffic. RUTH's peer, DelFrisco (NASDAQ:DFRG) via its first call since IPO noted +SSS of 5.1% and traffic of +2.2% at the flagship Double Eagle units.
    • Positive traffic and early peek looks: All had positive traffic-RUTH greatest at +3.9%; AFCE and PZZA don't reveal traffic/check but one can so deduce it was positive).
    • All had consensus earnings move up $.02 or more over the last 90 days-PNRA highest at +$.11, PZZA +$.09, EAT +$.07. Three of the six had 5 analysts or less providing estimates, with PNRA, TXRH and EAT well in double digit analyst coverage territory.
    • None of these chains had eyeball high debt. Interestingly, none of the chains was actively refranchising, all were growing company units, with even franchisee heavy AFCE planning a significant slug of new company units.


    Four of the six chains (RUTH, AFCE, PNRA, PZZA) had positive free cash flow increases from quarter to quarter. EAT and TXRH free cash flow was off from prior year but EAT is doing heavy duty remodels (and is still a huge cash generator) and TXRH is building new units.

    Price/earnings ratios: only RUTH cheap but…

    CompanyEATTXRHRUTHAFCEPNRAPZZA
    TTM PE18.6 X18.6 X10.8 X22.5 X30.4 X21.8X

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Themes: retail, restaurants Stocks: EAT, TXRH, RUTH, PLKI, PNRA, PZZA
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