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John A. Gordon is Principal and Founder of Pacific Management Consulting Group (http://www.pacificmanagementconsultinggroup.com/), an association of service sector senior management professionals providing management consulting and advisory expertise to restaurant, hospitality and multi-unit... More
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  • QSR "Weakness" vs. Casual Dining Optimism 0 comments
    Sep 10, 2009 02:03 PM | about stocks: YUM, MCD, WEN, BKC, DRI, CAKE, EAT, DIN
    Yesterday’s news about McDonald’s (MCD) sales softness made the restaurant universe move, and pulled down other QSR operators (YUM, BKC) yesterday, so far today, September 10.
    But this should not have been new news. The QSR sector has been weakening for some time, as the table of selected “national/international” QSR and Casual Dining operators, 6 quarters of SSS shows:  
     
    SSS, CQ
     
     
    Q1 2008
    Q2 2008
    Q3 2008
    Q4 2008
    Q1 2009
    Q2 2009
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
    McDonald's
     
    s
    2.9
    3.4
    4.7
    5
    4.7
    3.5
    Wendy's
     
    c
    -1.6
    0.1
    -0.2
    3.6
    0.3
    -0.4
    Taco Bell (est’d)
     
    s
    7.4
    7.0
    8
    9
    2
    1
    Burger King
     
    s
    5.6
    5.6
    3
    1.7
    1.6
    -4.5
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
    Olive Garden
     
    s
    5.7
    5.8
    2.4
    0.8
    -1.4
    -0.6
    Cheesecake Factory
    c
    -1.8
    -4.1
    -4.7
    -7
    -3.2
    -3
    Chili's
     
    c
    1.6
    3.4
    -3
    -4.2
    -5.2
    -9.4
    Applebee's
     
    s
    0.5
    -1.7
    -3.1
    -4.6
    -3
    -4.3
     
    But we are not sure yet we can see that the casual dining operator’s same store sales have stabilized absolutely, but they should improve relatively, versus depressed Q3/ especially Q4 2008.  Improved restaurant operator optimism, of casual dining operators same store sales trend has returned, second month in a row, as the RBC/Larry Miller Operator & Buyside Survey, notes below. And the National Restaurant Association Operators, Conference Board and Reuters/UM surveys are better, as well.

    Note: Taco Bell data: Per Restaurant Research, YUM does not breakout routinely.
     
    Disclosure: no stock positions. 
    Themes: Restaurants, Retail Stocks: YUM, MCD, WEN, BKC, DRI, CAKE, EAT, DIN
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