The 15 day free trial for Arena's (NASDAQ:ARNA) Belviq presents some interesting dynamics. Debate as to whether 15 days is enough time for a consumer to see results can happen all day long, but what I want to focus on here is the impact on script numbers.
Script numbers count a sale as a sale. If it is a 30 day script, it is counted the same as a 90 script, or with the 15 day program, a 15 day script.
Let's consider a person getting a free 15 day script on June 11th. That person would be counted as 1 sale. On June 25th, if they elect to stay on the drug, they would generate a second sale.
I use a 30% adjustment on my data, and will keep it at that level until such time that the company offers up more detail. It is something to consider though as we look at scripts. In theory, there should be several that were prescribed Belviq in the second week after launch, that should already be refilling in the first week of July.
Simply food for thought.
Disclosure: I am long ARNA.