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Spencer Osborne
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Spencer Osborne is founder of Satellite Standard Group [SSG], and a partner of Sirius Buzz (http://siriusbuzz.com/). Sirius Buzz covers the satellite radio industry as well as companies that do business in this sector. Sirius Buzz provides information and opinion to readers with an interest in... More
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  • The Arena 15 Day Dynamic 4 comments
    Jul 8, 2013 2:06 PM | about stocks: ARNA

    The 15 day free trial for Arena's (NASDAQ:ARNA) Belviq presents some interesting dynamics. Debate as to whether 15 days is enough time for a consumer to see results can happen all day long, but what I want to focus on here is the impact on script numbers.

    Script numbers count a sale as a sale. If it is a 30 day script, it is counted the same as a 90 script, or with the 15 day program, a 15 day script.

    Let's consider a person getting a free 15 day script on June 11th. That person would be counted as 1 sale. On June 25th, if they elect to stay on the drug, they would generate a second sale.

    I use a 30% adjustment on my data, and will keep it at that level until such time that the company offers up more detail. It is something to consider though as we look at scripts. In theory, there should be several that were prescribed Belviq in the second week after launch, that should already be refilling in the first week of July.

    Simply food for thought.

    Disclosure: I am long ARNA.

    Stocks: ARNA
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Comments (4)
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  • Day Trader001
    , contributor
    Comments (672) | Send Message
     
    15 days are more than enough to see weight loss improvement, as long as the person does the recommended! “Diet, exercise, and take their Belviq”.
    They must keep in mind the pill alone is not magic just like all the hokey diet pills out there.

     

    I see the stock itself back over $9.00 within 60-days. Could be less depending on marketing/ media push.
    8 Jul 2013, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • oneotherfool
    , contributor
    Comments (135) | Send Message
     
    This may balance out the fact that last week was a short week...we'll see.

     

    3rd paragraph, first word, did you mean to say "Let's"?
    9 Jul 2013, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • Day Trader001
    , contributor
    Comments (672) | Send Message
     
    No, "I", and could be Less than 60-days pending on company's media blitz if any. Hopefully they will start televising the product.
    9 Jul 2013, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • oneotherfool
    , contributor
    Comments (135) | Send Message
     
    Day Trader, I meant "Let's" in the third paragraph in the instablog, which I can see that Spencer had already fixed.

     

    Btw, I agree with you that the stock back up within the next month or two given solid growth in prescriptions.

     

    Cheers!
    9 Jul 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
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