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Spencer Osborne
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Spencer Osborne is founder of Satellite Standard Group [SSG], and a partner of Sirius Buzz (http://siriusbuzz.com/). Sirius Buzz covers the satellite radio industry as well as companies that do business in this sector. Sirius Buzz provides information and opinion to readers with an interest in... More
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  • Arena And Vivus - It Is Prescripts Sold, Not Written!!! 8 comments
    Oct 27, 2013 12:10 AM | about stocks: ARNA, VVUS

    It seems that a week can not go by where I do not receive a communication from an investor insinuating that one or the other company is "double counting scripts". The most common thing I see typically involves an Arena (ARNA) investor (typically an over passionate one) saying that Vivus (VVUS) instructs doctors to write two scripts to a patient. One is for the titration dose (which is free, and one is for the higher dose that the patient will start out on.

    NEWS FLASH -----NEWS FLASH-----NEWS FLASH

    IMS and Symphony count scripts SOLD, not scripts WRITTEN.

    In many ways, both Arena and Vivus are getting "ahead" in the counting of scripts with free trials. Essentially two weeks of free pills from BOTH companies is counted as a script. This is followed up by a more regular prescription that is filled monthly.

    Let's get crystal clear here. A doctor could sit down and write 1,000,000 scripts for either Belviq or Qsymia and it would have ZERO impact on the IMS or Symphony numbers.

    The weekly numbers for both companies are what they are. There is no "funny business" or double counting here outside the benefit of an extra script the 15 days worth of free pills give BOTH companies.

    This is the situation...If these companies were selling a ton of pills not a single person would be bringing up a myriad of excuses....Food for thought.

    Disclosure: I am long ARNA.

    Additional disclosure: I have no position in Vivus

    Stocks: ARNA, VVUS
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Comments (8)
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  • The Opportunist
    , contributor
    Comments (147) | Send Message
     
    Spencer, you write all the time, mostly on nonsense.......why don't you try waiting until there is something significant to write about and then bless us w/ your insights then.......I'm tired of pulling up vvus or arna new and seeing your constant mostly worthless musings
    27 Oct 2013, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • Spencer Osborne
    , contributor
    Comments (6619) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » jaybird...

     

    Thank you for the comment. You do not have to read what I write. Many people do, and express their gratitude. I choose to write for those people rather than not write. I apologize if this frustrates you, but given the choice of satisfying thousands, or bowing to the few that seem to have an axe to grind, I will keep my current course. I appreciate the feedback you have offered though. Please do not take it as an insult that I will continue to write.

     

    The equity moves on weekly scripts. I cover that with a simple article each week. The equity is beginning to take refills into consideration. I cover that.
    28 Oct 2013, 12:39 AM Reply Like
  • jakes101
    , contributor
    Comments (505) | Send Message
     
    jaybird74,

     

    Amazing, truly amazing! Why the hell do you read them then?
    29 Oct 2013, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • The Opportunist
    , contributor
    Comments (147) | Send Message
     
    surely you realize by now that the weekly scripts numbers are not accurate at all !!! (as you like to use lol)
    28 Oct 2013, 07:02 AM Reply Like
  • Spencer Osborne
    , contributor
    Comments (6619) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » jaybird....

     

    You have your belief regarding that. That is quite fine. You can run with it, And you think they are off by what exactly? Please don't tell me you are one of the people in the "Wal Mart is missing" camp.
    28 Oct 2013, 07:46 AM Reply Like
  • The Opportunist
    , contributor
    Comments (147) | Send Message
     
    I just looked at the diff between the 8k vvus filed and the scripts that ims/symphony had suggested prior to it.........again, you must know that they are not accurate
    28 Oct 2013, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • Spencer Osborne
    , contributor
    Comments (6619) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » jaybird....

     

    Again, you can do with the information anything you want. In my opinion, getting down to single digit accuracy is not the imperative goal. The ability to assess the trending and traction is.

     

    In general, the pharma industry places a high level of faith in IMS and Symphony to track what is happening. If you can not comprehend the value in that, it is quite fine.

     

    Are we really going to spend the next several hours discussing such minutia? Really? No....Really???

     

    You have expressed your opinion. It is noted.
    28 Oct 2013, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • jakes101
    , contributor
    Comments (505) | Send Message
     
    Spencer,

     

    Yeah.......I can't believe you had to write a blog on this topic, between what is sold and what is written. Really?

     

    I would rather you write a one of your detailed articles on what we can PERHAPS expect on Tue Nov. 5th.

     

    Thank you as always.
    29 Oct 2013, 09:53 PM Reply Like
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