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How Many Free Belviq Scripts Are There?

|Includes:Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARNA)

One burning question that many people have is how many free trial scripts exist in the sales numbers for Belviq. Try as we all might, there is simply not enough data to answer the question, and both Eisai and Arena are not too forthcoming.

Here is an interesting look at this issue. We know from the Eisai quarterly call that free scripts increased 200% since the ad campaign started. We know that the ad campaign started on April 14th (essentially the beginning of Q2). We know that 77,000 scripts were sold in Q1 and that 110,000 were sold in Q2. Now the fun.

  • If we assume that in Q1 15% of the scripts were free, that would give us 65,450 paid scripts and 11,550 free scripts.
  • If the scripts increased 200%, then the 11,500 would be 34,650 in Q2.
  • If 34,650 scripts were free in Q2, then that would leave 75,350 as paid.
  • The revenue for paid scripts in Q1 was $2.7 million. If we divide that by the 65,450 we arrive at about $41.25 per paid script
  • The revenue for paid scripts in Q2 was about $3.1 million. If we divide that by 75,350 we arrive at $41.17 per paid script..Essentially in the same neighborhood.

Thus, the percentage of free scripts to paid scripts would have gone from 15% in Q1 to about 30% in Q2.

Just a shot at looking at this considering the statement made by Eisai that the freebies have gone up 200%. Any comments?

Disclosure: The author is long ARNA.

Stocks: ARNA