Moby Waller's  Instablog

Oil prices peaked out around $147 a barrel on July 11, 2008.  We are now about 11 months after that bubble burst, and Oil has recently climbed as high as $70 a barrel.  A scan of the best and worst performing ETFs over a 52 week time frame (excluding Ultra and Short ETFs) shows the damage that has been seen in the Energy Sector since that time.

On the Worst Performers list below, you can see 3 directly related Energy ETFs, all down 56%+ over the past 52 weeks:  Natural Gas (UNG), Crude Oil (USO), and Heating Oil (UHN).  Interestingly enough, an "alternative energy" ETF that is involved in Solar stocks (TAN) is also down over 56%.

ETF Table Sorted By 52 Week Performance

Data from MSN Money

You can see from the above data that while Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and Solar have recovered over 4 & 13 week time frames (all are up 40%+ over the past 13 weeks), Natural Gas is down over those time frames as well and continues to be an energy laggard.

On the Outperformer List, a Gold ETF (IAU) stands out for both its 52 week and 3 year performance ... namely that both are positive.  However, when looking at the more recent 13 week performance, it is lagging the USO, UHN, and TAN.

Bottom Line:  Gold has been a long-term bulwark during these turbulent market times.  However, it is being outpaced in the recent market recovery by Energy/Oil;  barring Natural Gas which continues to be in a severe performance drain.  In addition, it is interesting that there may be more positive correlation between Solar and Fossil Fuel performance than is the conventional wisdom ... more research may need to be done on that.

Moby Waller
BigTrends.com
1-800-244-8736

disclosure:  Moby Waller has recommended bullish option spread positions in TOT & ABX currently