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InvestBaboo
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Casual investor with a flair for investing.
  • Don't try outsmart the market! 0 comments
    May 4, 2009 1:46 AM

    Frankly, I am getting tired of reading bearish posts and articles on Seeking Alpha each one trying to outdo the other by trying to present one rationale or another postulating that the market will reverse course and go down. This supposedly will happen for a variety of reasons including housing, jobs, banks, and what have you. However, none of these guys can explain coherently how the market climbed this wall of worry they are putting forth thus far in the past few weeks. By their logic the market should have been meandering around Dow 7000! Then the bears jump to technical parameters to explain why this rally is not solid or that recent market action indicates that it is running out of steam. The bears look to me like a slot gambler who after having spent hundreds of dollars feeding a machine not winning a jackpot keeps hoping that it is the next spin that will turn out to be the winner! I have seen these desperate gamblers who make another trip to the ATM and come back with a crisp big bill and say "This is it! It will happen any moment now!"

    I am reminded of a scene from a favorite movie of mine titled "What about Bob?" In that movie a psych patient befriends an unwilling Doctor and stalks him to his vacation home ending up having dinner with the doc's family all to much frustration of the doctor. The doc's family really digs the patient played quite charmingly by Bill Murray. The doc (played brilliantly by Richard Dreyfuss) wants to send the patient back home but the sky pours and rains and the family insists that the patient should stay the night at the Doctor's vacation home. "No, no!" pleads the doc. "Can you hear the skys? They are clearing! The rain is stopping!" As soon as the words escape his lips there is yet another tremendous downpour and the sky opens up and pours again. The doc does not give up and stays the whole night watching the sky saying to himself that the skies would clear any minute! The sky of course does not clear and the patient ends up spending the night at the doc's house even wearing the doc's jammies! I laugh at the bears who probably watch the market and keep hoping that the collapse is imminent any day any minute and getting desperate when the market continues to defy bear logic and climb north. Eventually the bears will jump in not wanting to miss the rally and as fate may have it that is probably when the market has reached its limit and begins a pullback leaving the bears as the bagholders!

    Look, I can take both sides of the table and make a successful argument as a bull or bear. Today, I spent quite a bit of time writing a rebuttal to a bearish article that was more gloom and doom than even the fame Dr. Roubini! This article on Seeking Alpha seemed to predict that America would collapse, civil unrest would erupt, and many of us would end up without food and shelter! Wow, you can go so far and be bearish but arguing that this great nation is going to end up in the dumpster just about made me lose my patience and composure.

    So instead of ending this post giving the readers pagefuls of reasons why I am bullish I will just say that the market is always right and you can never go wrong following the market. As the famous saying goes "Ride the trend till the bend at the end!" NASDAQ celebrated its sixth week of weekly confirmation on the charts and this past week S&P registered its first weekly chart confirmation! That's right -- thus far we had S&P buy confirmations only on daily charts but this pas week S&P reached over and did it on weekly charts as well! When will the market be done rising you ask and I really don't know but a reasonable guess would be it (S&P)will try breaching the 200 DMA which is at 975. That is a full 100 points away from today's levels so there are handsome profits yet to be made in this market! Always protect your gains with stop losses and be prepared to end your trades when you see that bend at the end!

    Happy trading to you all and again let us call upon God to bless the United States of America!

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