Cyclesguy's  Instablog

Cyclesguy
Send Message
A professional in an industry unrelated to finance. I have a passion for the markets and started following them very closely in 2011. I manage a portfolio for myself, spouse and business, abiding by the framework of Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio (with some slight variations). I have special... More
My blog:
Cyclesguy's investing blog
  • Speculating To Victory: Bullion, Miners Or Streamers?  0 comments
    May 25, 2014 2:05 PM | about stocks: SLW, CEF, SLV, GLD, GDX, SAND, GDXJ

    Speculating to victory: Bullion, Miners or Streamers?

    No question gold exemplifies the definition of a speculative investment. I traded in and out of this market for over 3 years and experienced the serious volatility.

    Several options exist for investors to play the gold market: physical bullion (you can hold in your hand), closed-end funds (such as Central Gold trust, Central fund of Canada), shares in the the mining companies that pull gold from the ground, and last, the streamers (shares in companies that profit in the buying/selling of bullion, through deals with junior miners to purchase bullion at a fixed price).

    If timed correctly, I'm under the impression that miners outweigh all others in the massive gains possible, but timing is the million dollar question, where is the bottom, is now a bottom?

    I'm back testing and eventually, aft-casting returns from the various precious metal options to see which provides the average joe investor like me the best opportunity of huge winnings if the trade goes in my favor.

    PERFECT TIMING:

    Here are gains from the 2008-09 lows to the 2011 peaks (if timed perfectly). Some assumptions -monthly charts, buying or selling on the first or last day only of a peak/bottom month, no one can pick the exact top within each month can they? This also mimics how I plan to buy/sell going forward, typically when I get my monthly chart technical indicator, I go in or out on the first day of the next month.

    GTU-UN (Canadian Central Gold Trust):
    buy Sep 01, 2008 at 34.40, exit Aug 31, 2011 at 70.31: 104% return

    XGD.TO (general miners index):
    buy Oct 31, 2008 at 9.32, exit Sept 30, 2011 at 24.49: 162% return

    FNV.TO (franco nevada gold streamer):
    buy Oct 31, 2008 at 17.27, exit Dec 31, 2012 at 57.51: 233% return, add trace more /year dividend

    SSL.TO (Sandstorm gold, smaller streamer), limited history chart only started around fiscal cliff crisis:
    buy 2008-05-31 at 2.50, exit Oct 31, 2012 at 13.99: 459% return

    SLW.TO (Silver Wheaton, Silver streamer):
    buy Nov 30, 2008 at 4.32, exit Apr 30, 2011 at 38.50: 791% return , add trace more /year dividend

    As a last comparison, the HUI Gold bugs index, a higher portion of juniors in the basket:
    HUI Index
    buy Oct 31, 2008 at 194, exit Sept 30, 2011 at 526: 171% return

    RISK AND REWARD :
    Another important way of analyzing these products is the potential risk, how far did they drop from high to low? I'm sure other investors somewhere have utilized a similar calculation, nothing formal here, let's assume the best case winnings divided by the worst case losses in percentage terms:

    GTU-UN (Canadian Central Gold Trust):
    70.31 aug 31, 2011 down to 44.25 Dec 31, 2013 = 37% loss
    Reward/Risk = 104% / 37% = 2.81

    HUI :
    526 Sept 30, 2011 down to 198 Dec 31, 2013 = 62% loss
    Reward/Risk = 171% / 62% = 2.75

    Franco-Nevada:
    56.22 on Dec 31, 2012 down to 37.65 June 30, 2013 = 33% loss
    Reward / Risk = 233% / 33% = 7 .06

    Sandstorm and Silver Wheaton were used above for illustrative purposes about the gains, but I believe it will be difficult for those companies to replicate the share appreciation they experienced going from micro-cap companies to larger companies. Sandstorm is still relatively small, so I would consider a speculative position when the time is right.

    SLW.TO:
    38.50 April 30, 2011 down to 18.59 June 30, 2013 = 52% loss
    Reward / Risk = 791%/ 52% = 15.2

    For comparison, price of silver comex:
    Gains - 9.73 up to 48.58 = 399%
    Losses- 48.58 down to 19.45 = 60%
    Reward / Risk = 6.65

    Sandstorm Gold:
    13.99 Oct 31, 2012 down to 4.59 Dec 31, 2013 = 67% loss
    Reward / Risk = 459% / 67% = 6.85

    Conclusions:
    Gold streamer performance reflects possibly, a more favorable reward/risk balance for a speculative investment when compared with miners or bullion.

    Silver bullion and silver wheaton experienced monumental gains magnitudes higher than similar gold products.

    Disclosure: I am long CEF.

    Stocks: SLW, CEF, SLV, GLD, GDX, SAND, GDXJ
Back To Cyclesguy's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.