58robbo's  Instablog

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Armchair economist.
  • Housing has bottomed! 0 comments
    Sep 24, 2009 9:33 AM

    ... In nominal terms at least.  This is unless you still have equity in your home. If this is the case and you're strapped for cash the highest offer on the table, regardless how low, is the offer which stands.  For the rest of the market, the price your underwater home sells for is out of your hands.

    Unemployment, access to mortgage loans and interest rates are all irrelevant.  Banks have set a bottom past which they will not go.  Another 10 million homeowners can default.  These will just be boarded and mothballed or the banks might delay foreclosure proceedings all to keep supply off the market.

    The reason for this is that this administration, the one before, the Fed and central banks around the globe are committed to the same inflationary solution followed by Greenspan after the bursting of the tech bubble.  they will borrow and monetize until they reach the likes of Krugman and Bernanke's goal of around 8%.

    The key however, is how this money makes its way into the hands of the consumer.  I personally believe we'll get 40-50 year mortgages and much of it will make its way into the economy through healthcare reform.

    Will real estate prices recover?  I doubt it.  I think they'll just flatline for a decade or so or perhaps start climbing again when a gallon of gas or a pack of smokes costs you $15!

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