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Gary Townsend - Founding member and Chairman, GBT Capital Management, LLC, a macro long/short fund based in Chevy Chase, Maryland. Also, 2007-2013, a founding partner, CEO and Portfolio Manager of Hill-Townsend Capital LLC, a long/short equity financial sector fund. Mr. Townsend has 35 years... More
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  • U.S. Futures Edge Higher Ahead Of FOMC; Asia Mixed, Europe Edges Higher 0 comments
    Sep 18, 2013 8:47 AM

    This morning. Since September 8th, the U.S. equity trend is "confirmed uptrend", following conclusion of a corrective trend that began on August 15th. Today, economic reporting is light, but news reporting focuses on the conclusion of this week's 2-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which is followed by a news conference. It is expected that the FOMC will initiate the "taper" of its bond purchase program. U.S. equity futures are moderately higher, but off the morning's best levels.

    Tuesday, on lower and below average volume, U.S. equity markets closed moderately higher, but near the top of the morning's range. No new records were set on any of the major indexes.

    Trading desks reported a quiet session with light flows and thin liquidity. Themes remain largely unchanged: nervousness regarding September, a static political narrative, possibly better clarity regarding Fed policy and leadership, and a greater probability of a Federal government shutdown - and doubts that markets will move through recent 52-week highs.

    Technicals were largely unchanged. Most S&P 500 (SPX) market segments closed higher. Market breadth was positive. Volatility rose. U.S. Treasury 10-year bond yields fell -1.75 basis points to 2.8468%, from 2.8643% the prior day.

    Today, U.S. economic reporting focuses on the latest week's mortgage applications (+11.2% following the prior week's -13.5% decline) and August housing starts and building permits. Syrian concerns have faded to immaterial. Immediate foci are the FOMC policy meeting, the 2:00 release of policy guidance (which is likely to spur debate), and the Bernanke press conference at 2:30 pm.

    In Asia, Japanese equity markets enjoyed a strong day, while Chinese markets closed mixed. The Shanghai Composite, which was grossly overbought late last week, was lower by late morning, but reversed higher in early afternoon. Thursday's Nikkei 225 (NKU3) equity futures are up +0.069%. In Europe, equities are moderately higher and near their intraday highs. The EuroStoxx50, CAC 40, and DAX are all at 52-week highs. Commentary focuses on the FOMC meeting and its aftermath.

    This morning, long-term U.S. Treasury yields are 2.8496%, up +0.28 bps from 2.8668% at the prior close. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields are 4.40% and 4.38%, respectively, compared to 4.41% and 4.40% the prior day. The U.S. dollar is mixed. U.S. options markets improved to neutral to bullish, from neutral the prior day. The CBOE skew moved above a neutral range, but hasn't yet signaled a market top.

    In pre-market futures trading, September SPX equity futures are higher, but near the bottom of the 1699-1702 range. After a fair value adjustment of -1.09 points, SPX equity futures are at 1699.75, up +2.31 points. The SPX opens +2.60% and +1.77% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +3.26% and +8.04% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving averages.

    In Asia, equity markets closed mixed, with better results in Japan. The Hang Seng (HSI) and Nikkei 225 (NYSEARCA:NKY) are bull markets. The NKY closed up +1.35%. The HSI fell -0.27%. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) closed up +0.29%, but -2.83% below its September 12th 2,255.60 3-month high. Volumes are unavailable.

    Commentary focused on the 2-day FOMC policy meeting.

    The NKY's relative strength index (RSI) is 62.06, compared to 58.30 the prior day, in a neutral 30-70 range. The index's RSI is down from an overbought 82.61 on May 22nd, up from a low of 34.42 on June 13th, and down from the recent peak of 64.16 on July 23rd. The HSI's RSI fell to 66.76, from 68.88 the prior day and in a neutral range. The SHCOMP's RSI improved to 60.05, from 58.95 the prior session, 72.36 the session before, and down from the grossly overbought 80.85 on September 12th. The SHCOMP is up +12.4% since June 27th.

    This week, the NKY is up +0.70%, the HSI is up +0.88%, and the SHCOMP is down -1.98%, Last week, the NKY closed up +3.92%. The HSI rose +1.32%. The SHCOMP gained +4.50%. In September, the NKY is up +8.34%, the HSI is up +6.38%, and SHCOMP is up +4.45%. In August, the NKY closed up +2.27%, the HSI closed up +2.33%, and the SHCOMP closed with a +6.49% gain.

    In 2013, the NKY is up +39.5%. The HSI is up +2.03%. The SHCOMP is down -3.41%. In 2012, the NKY rose +1.37%. The HSI rose +22.9%. The SHCOMP rose +3.17%.

    In Japan, the NKY closed at 14,505.36, compared to 14,311.67 the prior day, and -7.18% below its May 22nd 15,627.26 high. The index gapped higher to open above 14,400 and rallied through the morning session to an early afternoon 14,625.97 intraday high. By mid-afternoon, the index pulled back to 14,450, then improved to 14,500 in the final hour. The index closed +4.77%, +3.27%, +3.94% and +14.9% above its respective 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. All market segments closed at least +0.10% higher. Leaders were consumer services, financials, and telecommunications, which rose at least +1.25%. Laggards were basic materials, oil and gas, and utilities.

    In China, the HSI closed at 23,117.45, compared to 23,180.52 at the prior close. The index closed -2.96% below its January 30th 23,882.06 high, but +27.1% above its 18,185.59 June 4, 2012 low. The index opened above 23,210, but reversed lower in early trading and fell through the morning session to an early aftrnoon23,080.59 intraday low. By mid-afternoon, however, the index rallied and reversed higher to its 23,214.68 intraday high. In the final hour, sellers returned, and the index reversed lower to support at 23,080 before improving again into the close. The index closed +3.32% and +4.97% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages. Most market segments closed lower. Leaders were financials, utilities, and industrials, which closed at least +0.00% higher. Laggards were oil and gas, telecommunications, and technology, which fell at least -0.39%.

    In Shanghai, the SHCOMP closed at 2,191.85, up +0.29% from 2,185.56 at the prior close and +12.4% above the 1,950.01 June 27th closing low. The index opened modestly higher and traded narrowly through the session, with somewhat greater weakness late in the morning session, when the index set its 2,172.28 intraday low. The index reversed higher in early afternoon and rose to a late session 2,195.90 intraday high, then eased into the close. The SHCOMP closed +2.17% and +5.16% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages. Most market segments closed higher. Leaders were telecommunications, consumer services, and health care, which rose +1.23%. Laggards were consumer goods, which rose +0.33%, and financials and oil and gas, which fell at least -0.00%.

    In Europe, the major equity indexes are moderately higher and near intraday highs. The Euro Stoxx50 (SX5E), FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +0.53%, +0.16%, +0.44%, and +0.41%, respectively. The Spanish IBEX 35 is up +0.53%. The Italian FTSE MIB is up +0.54%.

    Commentary focuses on the this week's FOMC meeting.

    The SX5E currently trades at a new 52-week high, though -44.6% below its March 31, 2000, all-time closing high. European bourses have recently outperformed U.S. equity indexes. SX5E relative strength (RSI) is 67.87, compared to 65.99 at the prior close, down from an overbought 72.74 on August 14th, but near the top of a neutral 30-70 range.

    From its 2,890.95 prior day's close, the SX5E opened at 2,895, fell to an early 2,888.36 intraday low, then rallied to 2,909.15 in early afternoon. below 2,890 and fell to a mid-morning 2,878.10 intraday low. The index currently trades at 2,907.35. Most market segments are higher. Leaders are financials, technology, and industrials, which are up at least +0.95%. Laggards are utilities, health care, and oil and gas, which are down -0.11%.

    This week, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +1.39%, +0.01%, +1.22%, and +1.50%, respectively. Last week, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed up +2.27%, +0.56%, +1.61%, and +2.82%, respectively. In September, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +6.82%, +2.67%, +5.87%, and +6.59%, respectively. In August, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed down -1.18%, -3.14%, -1.48%, and -2.09%, respectively. In 2013, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +10.3%, +11.6%, +14.4%, and +13.5%. In 2012, the indexes closed up +13.8%, +5.84%, +15.2%, and +29.1%, respectively.

    3Q2013 SPX Earnings. Of 1 (of 496) reporting companies, 0 or 0.00% surprised positively on earnings, with a -5.04% surprise average. Of reporting companies, 0 or 0.0% reported sales or revenues in excess of estimates. The average sales/revenue surprise is -1.52%.

    Valuation. The SPX trades at 16.5x 2012 earnings ($103.41), 15.4x estimated 2013 earnings ($110.51), 13.9x estimated 2014 earnings ($122.57), and 12.6x estimated 2015 earnings ($135.54). The 10-year average median price/earnings multiple is 15.9x. Analysts expect 2013, 2014, and 2015 earnings to grow +6.87% and +10.9%, and +10.6%respectively.

    Composite, index, and equity options. Options markets improved to neutral to bullish, from neutral the prior session. Composite options are bullish, index options are bullish, and equity options are neutral. The composite put/call ratio is 0.75, compared to 0.90 the prior day, and better than 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.83 and 0.81, respectively. The index put/call ratio is 0.88, compared to 1.02 the prior day, and worse than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.92 and 0.88, respectively. The equity put/call ratio closed the day at 0.72, compared to 0.85 the prior day, and better than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.80 and 0.77, respectively.

    NYSE Volume, Breadth Indicators. Volume fell -11.9% to 577.06 million shares, from 654.67 million shares the prior day, 0.89x the 645.43 million share 20-day moving average. Market breadth was positive, and up volume led down volume. Advancing stocks led decliners by +1,016 (compared to +1,099 the prior day), or 2.02:1. Up volume was 2.65:1 down volume.

    Distribution day count. The current "confirmed uptrend" resumed on September 8th, following a corrective trend that began on August 15th. The distribution day count is 0.

    Libor, LOIS, Currencies, Treasuries, Commodities:

    · USD LIBOR is 0.11150%, compared to 0.11150% the prior day. USD 3-month LIBOR is 0.25245%, down from 0.25195% the prior day, and compares to the January 4, 2013, recent peak of 0.58250%.

    · The US Libor-OIS (LOIS) spread is 16.055 bps, compared to 15.795 bps the prior day, and compares to the January 6th high of 50.050 bps. Euribor-OIS is 12.900 bps, down from 13.600 bps the prior day, and down from the December 27, 2011, high of 98.80 bps. Moves in the LOIS indicate changes in intra-bank lending risk premiums.

    · The 3-month Euro basis swap is -8.621 bps, compared to -8.747 bps the prior day, up from a trough of -147.00 bps on December 14, 2011, but below a normal -10 bps and -40 bps range.

    · Spanish 10-year debt yields are 4.41%, down from 4.42% the prior day and up from the 4.039% May 3rd low. Italian 10-year debt yields are at 4.43%, down from 4.45% the prior day, but up from the 3.822% May 3rd low. German 10-year debt yields are 1.95%, compared to 1.94% the prior day. Japanese 10-year debt yields are 0.72%, compared to 0.73% the prior day.

    · The U.S. government overnight repo rate is 8 bps, compared to 7 bps the prior day. The January 2, 2013, 45 bps rate was the highest since late 2008. The 0.00 bps low was on January 31, 2009.

    · U.S. Treasury yields are lower, with 2- and 10-year maturities yielding 0.387% and 2.840%, respectively, compared to 0.387% and 2.864% Monday. The yield curve narrowed -2.410 bps, with the 2- to 10-year spread at +2.453%, compared to +2.477% the prior day. In the past year, the 2- and 10-year spread varied from a low of +1.342% on November 16, 2012, to a high of +2.498% on September 10, 2013.

    · The U.S. dollar is mixed, weaker to the British pound, but stronger compared to the euro and Japanese yen. The dollar trades at US$81.116, compared to its US$81.070 intraday low and US$81.143 the prior day, and worse compared to its $81.801 50-day, US$82.304 100-day, and US$81.733 200-day averages. The euro trades at US$1.3351, compared to a US$1.3364 intraday high and US$1.3359 the prior day. The euro trades mixed compared to its US$1.3262 50-day and US$1.3160 100-day averages, and compares to a multi-year low of US$1.1877 on June 7, 2010. In Japan, the dollar trades at ¥99.03, compared to ¥99.13 the prior day. The yen trades worse than its 50-day moving average ¥98.68, and better than its May 17th 103.21 closing low.

    · Citigroup Economic Surprise Index worsened to 40.70, compared to 46.20 the prior day. The index is worse compared to its respective +49.38 and +50.16 5-day and 10-day moving averages. The index signaled exhaustion on December 20th, and from 55.76 moved lower to -30.80 on January 30th. The index turned positive on February 25th and moved to a March 25th high of 30.20, but turned negative again on May 6th and fell to a low of -32.90 on June 10th. The index improved and turned positive on July 30th. After a lag, the CESIUSD correlates with EPS revisions.

    · Commodities prices are mostly lower, with mixed energy, lower precious metals, lower aluminum and copper, and mixed agriculture prices.

    Volatility, Skew:

    · The CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 14.53, up +1.04% from 14.38 at the prior close. The VIX is -5.38% below its 15.38 20-day moving average. Its 30-day high is 17.81. Its 30-day low is 12.06. The index's all-time closing low is 11.26 on June 30, 1993. The long-term average is 20.18.

    · At mid-session, the Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index (V2X) is 18.71, down -1.44% from 19.01 at the prior day's close. The V2X index trades -7.72% below its 20.28 20-day moving average, -22.9% below the 24.27 30-day high, and +16.7% above the 16.04 30-day low.

    · The Hang Seng volatility index (VHSI) closed Wednesday at 17.41, up +0.81% from 17.27 the prior day. The VHSI index trades -4.32% below its 18.20 20-day moving average. Its lowest historical close was 11.72, on June 30, 2005.

    · CBOE SKEW (SKEW) closed at 121.59, up +2.31% from 118.84 at the prior day's close, and moving above a neutral (115-120) range. The recent low was 112.47 on May 25, 2013. Spikes in excess of 130 (as on February 15 and 18, 2013 and previously on September 21, and March 12, 15, and 16, 2012) correlate well with short-term market tops. The recent high closes were 130.46 on February 15th and 130.60 on September 21st. The index rarely falls below 110, last on July 31, 2009. The index correlates with market tail risks, the cost of buying out-of-the-money, long-dated options, i.e., options not affected by expirations. A rise suggests that investors are buying more puts than calls, a bearish signal.

    U.S. Economic Reporting and News:

    · At 7:00, the latest week's MBA mortgage applications rose +11.2%, compared to -13.5% the prior week.

    · At 8:30, August MoM housing starts rose 0.9%, compared to +2.3% survey and +5.9% prior.

    · August MoM building permits fell -3.8%, compared to -0.4% survey and +3.9% revised prior.

    Overseas Economic Reporting and News:

    · Eurozone - July MoM construction output rose +0.3%, compared to +0.9% revised prior.

    · Portugal - August MoM PPI was 0.0%, compared to +0.6% revised prior.

    · United Kingdom - BOE Monetary Policy Committee minutes.

    Company Ratings/News:
     

    • None.


    Tuesday's Trade. On lower and below average volume, U.S. equity markets closed moderately higher. The Nasdaq closed at a new 52-week high, but is -18.1% below its March 31, 2000 all-time closing high. The other indexes failed to crack recent historical highs. Since September 10th, the U.S. equity market trend is in "confirmed uptrend".

    The Nasdaq rose +0.75%, followed by the SPX, NYSE composite, and DJI, which rose +0.42%, +0.36%, and +0.23%, respectively. Market breadth was positive, with gainers 2.02:1 losing stocks. All SPX market segments closed at least +0.02% higher. Leaders were consumer services, technology, and utilities, which rose at least +0.53%. Laggards were consumer goods, health care, and basic materials.

    NYSE volume fell -11.9% to 577.06 million shares, from 654.67 million shares the prior day, 0.89x the 645.43 million share 20-day moving average volume. U.S. 10-year yields fell -1.75 bps to 2.8468%, from 2.8643% at the prior close.

    SPX futures pointed to a strong open, and from its 1697.60 prior day's close, the SPX opened just below 1700 and immediately moved higher to mid-morning resistance at 1704. Moving into the afternoon session, the index improved to 1705, which proved resistance through the close. The SPX closed at 1704.76, -0.29% below its 1709.67 August 2nd record close. The index closed +58.6% above the 1074.77 October 4, 2011, intraday low.

    The DJ Transportation Index (TRAN) did not confirm the DJI's advance. The TRAN ended at 6,604.57, up +0.11% compared the DJI's +0.23% gain. From its 6,597.15 prior close, the TRAN set an early 6,610.13 intraday high, then quickly reversed lower to a late morning 6,574.47 intraday low. By mid-session, the TRAN improved to breakeven, but had difficulty holding any gain until the final hour, when the index reversed higher to preserve the day's modest gain. The index closed at 6,604.57, -0.98% below its August 1st 6,670.06 record close. Volume fell -13.8% to 0.67:1 average volume. The TRAN closed +2.72%, +2.27%, +3.65%, and +8.59% above its respective 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages.

    Market volatility rose. From its prior 14.38 prior close, the VIX fell to a mid-morning 14.28 intraday low, then rose to a late afternoon 14.61 intraday high, despite increasing strength in the equity indexes. The index closed at 14.53, up +1.04% on the day and -5.38% below its 15.36 20-day moving average. The VIX's all-time closing low was 11.26, set June 30, 1993.

    The broader market's technical factors were little changed. The SPX closed above its 5-, 10-, 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. SPX relative strength (RSI) improved to 66.50, from 64.18 the prior day, and moving into the upper end of a neutral 30-70 range. The CBOE put/call skew rose +2.31% to 121.59, from 118.84 the prior day, and moving above a neutral 115-120 range.

    This week, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +0.99%, +1.00%, +0.63%, and +1.08%, respectively. Last week, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +1.98%, +3.04%, +1.70%, and +2.07%, respectively. In September, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +4.40%, +4.86%, +4.34%, and +5.05%, respectively. In August, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed down -3.01%, -4.36%, -0.91%, and -2.61%, respectively.

    In 2013, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +19.5%, +18.5%, +24.1%, +15.3%, respectively. All closed at least +5.91% higher in 2012. Immediate SPX resistance is 1708. Immediate support is 1700, then 1695.

    KBW Bank Index (BKX). On lower and below average volume, the BKX closed at 64.58, up +0.61% from 64.19 at the prior day's close. The index opened tentatively, set an early 64.08 intraday low, then reversed higher and traded near 64.40 through mid-afternoon, then improved to a late 64.59 intraday high. Volume fell -1.02% to 39.117 million shares, from 39.521 million shares the prior day, 0.86x the 45.328 million share 15-day moving average.

    Large cap banks underperformed the regional banks' performance, as the KBW regional banking index (KRX) rose +1.40%.

    This week, the BKX is up +1.41%, compared to +0.82% the prior week. In September, the BKX is up +3.81%. In August, the BKX closed down -5.41%. For the year, the BKX is up +25.9%, better than the SPX's +19.5% rise. In 2012, the index rose +18.1%, compared to a +13.4% rise in the SPX.

    The BKX is now +9.11% better than the June 24th 59.19 close, its worst since May 13th. The index crossed above 50 on December 17th and 60 on August 5, 2012. The BKX closed +98.3% above the 32.56 intraday low on October 4, 2011. Large-cap bank stocks have outperformed the broader market's rebound, with the SPX up +58.6% in the same period.

    The BKX index closed -46.7% below its February 20, 2007, record 121.06 high. The BKX is up +246.8% from its 18.62 March 6, 2009, closing low.

    Technical indicators were little changed, as the index remained below its 50-day moving average. The index closed +1.53% above, but -0.19% below its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages. The index closed +3.32% and +10.9% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving averages. The index has closed above its 100-day moving average since August 7, 2012. The 20-day moving average rose +4 bps, its first increase since August 15th. The 50-day moving average was unchanged. Its 100-day moving average rose +7 bps, and the 200-day moving average rose +8 bps. The 20-day closed (by -1.10 points) below the 50-day, and the gap narrowed -3 bps. The 50-day moving average closed (by +6.47 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap narrowed -8 bps. The 100-day moving average closed (by +4.27 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap was unchanged.

    The directional movement indicator improved to +1.649, from -0.789 the prior day, and its first positive reading since August 15th. Relative strength rose to 55.83, from 52.73 the prior day, up from the recent 34.64 August 27th low and in the middle of a neutral 30-70 range. The most recent RSI lowest level was 31.08 on November 14, 2012, which is also the BKX's 52-week closing low. Next resistance is 64.75; next support is at 64.24.

    Price and Selling Exhaustion/Trend Reversal (based on TD sequential):

    S&P 500 Index (SPX) - On a monthly basis, the SPX initiated a buy setup in June 2008, with the month's 1404.05 high setting the resistance level. The setup perfected at 735.09 in February 2009. A sell setup ensued in May 2009. In September 2010, a follow-on setup began. The May 2009 setup perfected in January 2010. Its countdown completed in January 2012, closing at 1312.41 and setting a 1429.36 risk level. The follow-on setup perfected in May 2011. In March 2012, the index closed at 1408.47, above resistance, suggesting further upside. In September 2012, the index closed at 1440.67, above the 1429.36 risk level and suggesting the likelihood of further upside. In October and November, the index closed below the risk level, but above support. Also, the follow-on countdown rose to 8 in September 2012, but hasn't subsequently progressed. In August 2012, the index initiated a new sell setup, which perfected in April 2013. In May, the sell countdown stemming with the May 2011 perfection completed, setting a risk level of 1793.08, based on May's 105.90 range and 1687.18 high. In August, the index closed at 1632.97, down -3.13% from 1685.73 the prior month and 1597.57 four months prior. The May 2013 3 sell countdown is unchanged since June. The index closed -8.93% below the risk level.

    On a weekly basis, the SPX signaled selling exhaustion the week ended June 8th, during which the SPX traded to an intraweek 1266.74 low on June 4th, and then perfected a weekly buy setup with its 1325.66 close. The next week's bullish price flip initiated a sell setup that perfected on August 10th at 1405.87. On January 4th, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup, which perfected the week ending March 1. On January 31st, the sell countdown associated with August 10th perfection completed. On August 2nd, the March 1st sell countdown completed and set a 1737.48 risk level, based on the week's 27.81 point range and 1709.67 high. The week ending August 16th, a bearish price flip initiated a buy setup. In the week ending September 13th, the index rose +1.98% to 1687.99, compared to 1655.17 the prior week and its 1655.83 close four weeks prior. The bullish price flip canceled the August 16th 4 buy setup and initiated a sell setup. The index closed -2.85% below the 1737.48 risk level.

    On a daily basis, the SPX perfected a sell setup on March 13th, with a 1552.52 close. On April 29th, the March 13th sell countdown. On May 2nd, a bullish price flip initiated a follow-on sell setup, and on May 14th, the sell setup perfected and initiated a sell countdown, which completed on July 8th. On June 26th, a bullish price flip initiated another follow-on sell setup, and this setup perfected on July 9th and initiated a sell countdown. On September 3rd, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup, which perfected on September 13th. The associated sell countdown initiated on September 16th. Also on September 16th, the July 9th sell countdown completed and set a 1718.66 risk level, based on the day's 13.25 point range and 1704.95 intraday high. On Tuesday, the SPX rose +0.42% to 1704.76, compared to 1697.60 the prior day and 1689.13 4 days prior. The index closed -0.81% below the 1718.66 risk level.

    KBW Bank Index (BKX) - On a monthly basis, the BKX perfected a buy setup in December 2007, but has yet to complete its associated buy countdown, which is has been a deferred 13 since April 2011. That same month, the BKX initiated a buy setup, but the setup has remained unperfected since December 2011, when the index closed at 39.38. The buy countdown would complete with a close below 28.72, the February 2009 close with an 8 buy countdown. In September 2012, the index initiated a sell setup, which perfected in May 2013. In August, the index closed at 62.98, down -5.41% from 65.77 at July-end and 61.60 four months prior. The May 2013 sell countdown progressed to 4.

    On a weekly basis, a bullish price flip occurred on July 27, 2012, and the sell setup perfected the following September 21st. Subsequent trends were weak until December 7, when the index initiated a new sell setup, which perfected on February 1, 2013. On February 22nd, the September 21st sell countdown completed and set a 56.93 risk level. On July 19th, the February 1st sell countdown completed and set a 68.29 risk level, based on the day's 2.24 point range and 66.05 intraday high. For the week ending September 13th, the BKX closed at 63.68, up +0.82% compared to 63.16 the prior week and 64.71 four weeks prior. The August 16th buy setup progressed to 5. The index closed -6.75% below the 68.29 risk level.

    On a daily basis, on December 17th, the 50.62 close above the November 1st 50.45 close and above the prior two days' close completed a sell countdown and initiated a sell setup, which perfected on February 13th. On March 14th, the sell setup closed above 57.22 and perfected. On March 19th, a bearish price flip initiated a buy setup with a 56.84 close. On April 1st, the buy setup perfected. On May 3rd, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup. On May 15th, the sell setup perfected. On June 26th, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup, which perfected on July 9th and initiated a sell countdown. On July 2nd, the index completed its May 15th sell countdown, which set a 64.06 risk level, based on the May 30th 1.14 point high/low range and 62.92 close. On July 24th, the July 12th sell setup perfected, but did not initiate a sell countdown. On August 8th a bearish price flip initiated a buy setup, which completed on August 19th and initiated a buy countdown. On September 16th, the September 4th sell setup perfected and initiated a sell countdown. Tuesday, the index rose +0.61% to 64.58, compared to 64.19 the prior day and 63.97 four days prior. The September 16th sell countdown progressed to 2. The index closed +0.81% above its 64.06 risk level.

    CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX) - On a monthly basis, the VIX perfected a sell setup in October 2007. The associated sell countdown progressed to a deferred 13 in June 2012, but is subsequently unchanged. In May a bullish flip initiated a sell countdown. The VIX ended August at 17.01, up +26.5% from 17.01, compared to 13.45 at the end of July and 13.52 at the end of April. The May 2013 sell setup progressed to 4.

    On a weekly basis, the VIX perfected a buy setup on January 27, 2012, and a sell setup on June 8th, followed by another perfected buy setup on August 10th. On April 12th, the VIX completed the buy countdown associated with the August 10th, setup, which also established a 9.17 risk level. The week ending September 13th, the VIX fell -10.7% to 14.16, compared to 15.85 the prior week, and 14.37 4 weeks prior. The bearish index flip canceled the August 16th 4 sell setup and initiated a buy setup. The index closed +54.4% above the risk level.

    On a daily basis, on May 20th a bullish flip initiated a sell setup, which perfected on May 31st and initiated a sell countdown. On June 26th, a bearish flip initiated a buy countdown, which perfected on July 9th, when a sell countdown was initiated. On September 13th, the September 4th buy setup perfected. Since September 3rd, the July 9th buy countdown is a deferred 13. Tuesday, the VIX rose +1.04% to 14.53, compared to 14.38 the prior day and 13.82 at the 4 days' prior close. The VIX closed +39.6% above the 10.41 risk level.

    U.S. 10-year Bond Index (USGG10YR) - On a monthly basis, the USGG10YR began a downward trend from 5.0506% in May 2006, perfecting a sell setup in April 2008 (at 3.7295%) and completing the associated buy countdown in June 2011 (at 3.1600%), when it produced a 1.1121% risk factor. A subsequent 9 buy setup perfected in May 2012, with the rate at 1.5578%. In September 2012, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup. The rate ended August at 2.7839%, compared to 2.5762% the prior month and 1.6717% 4 months prior. The May 2013 sell setup progressed to 4.

    On a weekly basis, on December 7th, a bullish rate flip (at 1.6215%) initiated a sell setup, which perfected on February 1st. The perfection initiated a sell setup. Subsequent trends were weak until a May 3rd bullish rate flip (at 1.7382%) initiated a sell setup, which perfected on June 28th, when the rate ended at 2.4857%. For the week ended September 13th, the rate ended at 2.8846%, down -4.960 bps from 2.9342% the prior Friday and 2.8251% four weeks prior. The bearish price flip canceled the August 16th 4 sell setup and initiated a buy setup. The February 1st 12 sell countdown was unchanged. The rate closed 177.27 bps above the 1.119% risk level.

    On a daily basis, on February 20th, a bearish rate flip initiated a buy setup, which perfected on March 4th. On April 8th, the buy setup perfected. On April 15th, the buy countdown associated with the March 4th perfection completed and set a 1.6098% risk level, based on the April 5th 10.61 bps range between the intraday high and low rate and 1.7159% close. On May 15th, the May 3rd buy setup perfected. On June 24th, the May 20th sell countdown completed, setting a 2.8150% risk level, based on the June 24th 15.03 bps trading range and 2.6647% intraday high. On Tuesday, the rate fell -1.75 bps to 2.8468%, compared to 2.8643% the prior day and 2.9122% four days prior. The September 11th buy setup progressed to 5. The rate closed +3.180 bps above the 2.8150% risk level.

    EURUSD Spot Exchange Rate (EURUSD Cross) - On a monthly basis, Euro Dollar cross perfected a buy setup on May 30, 2008, at 1.554. Subsequent monthly trends were weak until December 31, 2009, when a monthly decline of -4.56% brought the index to 1.4321. The downward move continued until July 2010, when from 1.2238, the index rose +7.10%, with an unperfected buy setup in August 2010. The index failed to establish much strong upward momentum, however, peaking at the end of April 2011 at 1.4807, but then trending lower to retest the July 2010 lows. In March, a bearish price initiated a buy setup. The cross ended August at 1.3222, down -0.60% from 1.3302 the prior month and 1.3168 4 months prior. The July 2013 sell setup progressed to 2. The 9 buy countdown progressed is unchanged since March.

    On a weekly basis, the cross perfected a buy setup on January 6th, followed by another buy setup and completed countdown on June 1, 2012, when the cross closed at 1.2434. The cross completed a buy countdown on July 27th, and set a 1.1964 risk level. The index initiated an sell setup the week ended August 3rd, when it closed at 1.2387, and the setup perfected on September 28, with a 1.2860 close. On January 18th, the index completed a sell setup at 1.336. The week of September 13th, the index rose +0.88% to end at 1.3294, compared to 1.3178 the prior week and 1.3255 4 weeks prior. The August 30th buy setup progressed to 2. The sell countdown associated with the September 28th perfection is a deferred 13, unchanged since June 7th. The cross closed +10.3% above the 1.1964 risk level.

    On a daily basis, on February 14th, a bearish price flip initiated a sell setup, which subsequently perfected on February 26th. On April 4th, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup, which perfected on April 12th. On June 7th, the sell countdown associated with the April 12th perfection completed. The completion set a 1.3537 risk level, based on the June 6th 0.0231 trading range and 1.3306 intraday high. On June 11th, the May 29th sell setup perfected and initiated a sell countdown. On July 2nd, the June 20th buy setup perfected and initiated a buy countdown. On July 10th, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup, which perfected on July 22nd. On September 16th, the July 2nd sell countdown completed. With Wednesday's +0.19% higher close, the EURUSD cross ended at 1.3334, compared to 1.3294 the prior day and 1.3299 four days prior. The September 9th sell setup progressed to 7. The cross closed -1.36% below the 1.3537 risk level.

    Euro Stoxx 50 (SX5E) - On a monthly basis, the Euro Stoxx50 perfected a sell setup on May 31, 2007. It perfected a buy setup on September 30, 2008. The buy countdown completed in May 2012. A bullish price flip in August 2012 initiated a sell setup, which perfected in May 2013 and initiated a sell countdown. In August, the index closed at 2,721.37, down -1.18% from 2,753.97 the prior month and 2,712.00 four months prior. The July 31st sell setup progressed to 2. The May 2013 sell countdown is unchanged since May 2013.

    On a weekly basis, a bullish price flip the week of November 23rd (2,557.03 close) initiated a sell setup that perfected on January 18th at 2,709.59, up +5.97%. The sell countdown associated with the August 10th perfection also completed on January 18th, when the index closed at 2,709.59, up +24.2% over the June 15th bullish price flip. The completion set a 2,785.45 risk level. Since January 18th, the subsequent trend was lower, until a bullish price flip in the week ending July 12th. On August 16th, the sell countdown stemming from the January 18th perfection completed and set a 2,909.37 risk level, based on the August 16th week's 53.48 range and 2,855.89 intraweek high. In the week ended September 13th, the index rose +2.27% to 2,867.11, compared to 2,803.42 the prior week and 2,854.27 at the 4 weeks' prior close. The bullish price flip canceled the August 30th buy setup and initiated a sell setup. The index closed -1.45% below the 2,909.37 risk level.

    On a daily basis, on January 3rd, the index completed the associated countdown (with a 2,701.22 close) and set a 2,786.57 risk level, based on the prior day's 2,711.25 high and 51.46 intraday range. On March 14th, the March 4th sell setup perfected. On March 18th, a bearish price flip initiated a buy setup, which perfected on March 28th, and initiated a buy countdown. On April 23rd, a bullish price flip initiated a sell countdown, which perfected on May 3rd. On June 12th, the May 31st buy setup perfected and initiated a buy countdown. On July 8th, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup, which perfected on July 18th and initiated a sell countdown. On August 15th, the July 18th sell countdown completed and set a 2,876.19 risk level, based on the day's 32.11 point range and 2835.86 close. Tuesday, the index fell -0.13% to 2,890.95, compared to 2,894.64 the prior day and 2,863.44 at the prior 4 days' close. The September 5th sell setup perfected and initiated a sell countdown. The index closed +0.51% above the 2,876.19 risk level.

    Nikkei 225 (NKY) - On a monthly basis, the NKY perfected a buy setup on April 30, 2009 (at 8,828.26), but subsequently traded narrowly until November, 2012, when the index rose +5.80%, following an increase of +1.50% in October, and initiated a sell setup. In July 2013, the November 2012 sell setup progressed to 9, but did not perfect. In August, the index fell -2.04% at 13,388.86, compared to 13,668.32 the prior month and 13,860.86 four months prior. The bearish price flip initiated a buy setup.

    On a weekly basis, the NKY perfected a sell setup on March 9th, and a subsequent buy setup on June 1st with a countdown of 8. The index initiated a sell setup on October 26th, and on December 21st, the sell setup perfected. Notably, on December 28th, the index closed at 10,395.18, +2.01% above 10,190.35 resistance (its April 4th weekly high), suggesting further upside. The sell countdown associated with the December 21st perfection completed April 5th and set a 14,645.46 risk level, based on the 1,419.84 point range on that day and 13,225.62 intraday high. For the week ending September 13th, the index closed up +3.92% at 14,404.67, compared to 13,860.81 the prior week and 13,650.11 four weeks' prior. The September 6th sell setup progressed to 2. The index closed -5.36% below the risk level.

    On a daily basis, on March 27th, a bearish price flip initiated a buy setup, which perfected on April 15th. On May 7th, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup. On May 17th, the sell setup perfected; also, the sell countdown associated with the April 26th perfection completed. The completion set a 15,412.34 risk level, which is based on the May 16th 15,155.72 intraday high and 276.21 point range. On June 4th, the May 23rd buy setup perfected and initiated a buy countdown. On July 10th, the June 28th sell setup perfected, cancelled the June 4th 7 buy countdown, and initiated a sell countdown. On August 2nd, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup. On September 4th, the July 10th sell countdown completed. The completion set a 15,493.30 risk level, based on the July 19th 540.01 point range and 14,953.29 high. On September 12th, the September 2nd sell setup perfected. Wednesday, the index rose +1.35% to 14,505.36, compared to 14,311.67 the prior day and 14,425.07 four days prior. The bullish price flip initiated a sell setup. The index closed -6.38% below the 15,412.34 risk level.

    Hang Sang Index (HSI)- On a monthly basis, the HSI perfected a buy countdown on March 31, 2009, and two subsequent perfected upward setups on December 31, 2009 and May 31, 2011. In February, the index closed at 23,020.27, completing the sell countdown stemming from the May 2011 perfection. The completed countdown set a 27,194.16 risk level. A bullish price flip in September 2012 initiated a sell setup. A bearish price flip in May 2013 initiated a buy setup. In August, the index declined -0.70% to 21,731.37, compared to 21,883.66 the prior month and 22,737.01 four months prior. The May 2013 buy setup progressed to 4. The index closed -20.1% below the risk level.

    On a weekly basis, the HSI perfected a sell setup on March 2, 2012, and the associated sell countdown completed on September 21, 2012, and set a 22,357.00 risk level, based on the September 14, 2012, when it set a 22,357.00 risk level. The index perfected two sell setups on November 9th and February 1st. A buy setup initiated the following week and perfected on April 5th, initiating a sell countdown. On September 13th, the index closed up +1.30% to 22,915.28, compared to 22,621.22 the prior week and 22,517.81 four weeks prior. The September 6th sell setup progressed to 2. The April 5th 7 buy countdown is unchanged since August 30th. The index closed +2.50% above the risk level.

    On a daily basis, on April 19th, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup, which perfected on May 2nd and initiated a sell countdown. On June 4th, the May 23rd buy setup perfected and initiated a buy countdown. On June 20th, a bearish price flip initiated a buy setup. On June 25th, the June 4th buy countdown completed and set a 18,860.42 risk level, which is based on the day's 565.94 trading range and 19,426.36 intraday low. On September 12th, the September 2nd sell setup perfected and on September 16th, a sell countdown initiated. On Wednesday, the index fell -0.27% to 23,117.45, compared to 23,180.52 the prior day and 22,937.14 four days prior. The September 16th 2 sell countdown was unchanged. The index closed +22.6% above the 18,860.42 risk level.

    Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) - On a monthly basis, the SHCOMP perfected a buy setup on September 30, 2008, and subsequently rallied to an August 31, 2009, high, but without perfecting a subsequent sell setup. In May 2011, the SHCOMP assumed a downward trend and perfected a buy setup on January 31, 2012. The perfection initiated a buy setup. In April 2013, a bearish price flip initiated a buy setup. In August, the index closed up +5.25% at 2,098.38, compared to 1,993.80 the prior month and 2,177.91 four months prior. The April 30th buy setup progressed to 5. The January 2012 9 buy countdown was unchanged.

    On a weekly basis, the SHCOMP last perfected a buy setup on April 8, 2011. The index has subsequently trended lower, with a downward perfected setup on September 23, 2011, and January 6, 2012 countdown completion, when it closed at 2,163.40. The index rallied to a high of 2,476.22 during the week ending March 16th, but without perfecting an upward setup. On July 13th, the index perfected a buy setup. In subsequent weeks, it traded below the sales exhaustion target of 2148.45 to a 1980.12 close on November 30th, when the buy countdown reached 11. On December 14th, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup at 2,059.47. That setup perfected on February 8th, with a 2,432.40 close, up +18.1%. On September 13th, the index closed the week up +4.50% at 2,236.22, compared to 2,139.99 the prior week and 2,068.45 four weeks prior. The July 26th sell setup progressed to 8.

    On a daily basis, On December 4th, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup. On January 14th, the sell setup that began on December 25th perfected; also, the bullish price flip initiated a follow-on sell setup. On March 26th, a bearish price flip initiated a buy setup, which perfected on April 9th. On June 3rd, a bearish price flip initiated a buy setup, which perfected on June 19th, and initiated a buy countdown. On June 7th, the April 9th buy countdown completed and set a 2,142.63 buy risk level. On July 30th, the June 19th buy countdown completed and set a 1,735.74 risk level, based on the June 25th 113.91 point trading range and 1,849.65 intraday low. On August 13th, the August 1st sell setup perfected and initiated a sell countdown. On September 3rd a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup, which perfected on September 13th and initiated a sell countdown. Wednesday, the index fell -1.98% to 2,191.85, compared to 2,185.56 at the prior close and 2,255.60 4 days prior. The September 16th buy setup progressed to 3. The index closed +26.3% above the July 30th 1,735.74 risk level.

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