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Gary Townsend - Founding partner and Chairman, GBT Capital Management, LLC, a macro long/short fund based in Chevy Chase, Maryland. Also, 2007-2013, a founding partner, CEO and Portfolio Manager of Hill-Townsend Capital LLC, a long/short equity financial sector fund. Mr. Townsend has 35 years... More
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  • U.S. Futures Higher Despite Shutdown Sideshow; Japan, Europe Advance 0 comments
    Oct 1, 2013 8:38 AM

    This morning. Since September 8th, the U.S. equity trend is "confirmed uptrend", following conclusion of a corrective trend that began on August 15th.

    Today, U.S. economic reporting included September Markit PMI, and ISM manufacturing. Government data releases are postponed due to the government shutdown, which commenced overnight. Other foci are the Congress, the presidency, the 2014 Federal budget, and pending Treasury debt reauthorization. This morning, U.S. equity futures are lower and near their intraday lows.

    Monday, U.S. equity markets closed lower on increased and above average volume. All the major exchanges distributed. Despite the late month distributions, the major U.S. indexes ended September with strong gains.

    Trading desks reported a "remarkably quiet" session after a volatile open, with a focus on developments in the sideshows in Washington and Rome, but greater interest in this month's earnings reports. The market seems to expect a resumed rally once the current "consolidation and digestion" of recent gains complete. Treasury bond markets strengthened.

    Technicals worsened. All S&P 500 (SPX) market segments closed at least -0.11% lower, with consumer goods down -0.85%. Financials were again laggards, down -0.76%. For a 2nd consecutive session, market breadth was negative, and up volume lagged down volume. Volatility rose. U.S. Treasury 10-year bond yields fell -1.45 basis points (bps) to 2.6100%, from 2.6245% the prior day.

    In Asia, equity markets were closed for holiday in China, but Japan closed higher. Hong Kong re-opens tomorrow, but Shanghai is closed through until October 8th. In September, all closed with strong gains. Wednesday's Nikkei 225 (NKZ3) equity futures are down -0.689%. In Europe, equities are mostly higher. Commentary focuses on the U.S. government shutdown and in Italy, tomorrow's parliamentary confidence vote.

    This morning, long-term U.S. Treasury yields are 2.6464%, up +3.64 bps from the prior close. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields are 4.22% and 4.54%, respectively, compared to 4.30% and 4.43% the prior day. The U.S. dollar is lower. U.S. options markets worsened to bearish to neutral, from neutral to bullish the prior session. The CBOE skew moved lower Monday, but remains above a neutral range.

    In pre-market futures trading, December SPX equity futures are higher, but in the middle of the 1677-1683 range. After a fair value adjustment of +0.30 points, SPX equity futures are at 1679.50, up +5.55 points. The SPX opens -0.33% below and +1.31% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +1.31% and +5.71% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving averages.

    In Asia, equity markets are closed for holiday in China, but in Japan, the Nikkei 225 (NKY) rose +0.20%. Monday, the Hang Seng (HSI) closed down -1.50%. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) rose +0.68%. All ended September with strong gains. The NKY and HSI are bull markets. Volumes are unavailable.

    Economic reporting focuses on the latest Chinese PMI, which expanded, but came in slightly less than forecast. Otherwise, commentary focused on the U.S. government shutdown. Chinese equity markets are closed October 1st through 7th for its National Day holiday. Hong Kong markets are closed only on October 1st.

    Monday, the NKY's relative strength index (RSI) rose to 54.95, from 54.27 the prior day, within a neutral 30-70 range. The index's RSI is down from an overbought 82.61 on May 22nd, up from a low of 34.42 on June 13th, and below the most recent peak of 64.16 on July 23rd. Monday, the HSI's RSI ended at 52.30, down from 62.00 the prior day. The SHCOMP's RSI closed Monday at 53.08, up from 50.09 the prior session, but down from an overbought 80.85 on September 12th. The SHCOMP is up +11.5% since June 27th, but down -4.16% from its recent September 12th 2,255.60 close.

    Last week, the NKY closed up +0.12%. The HSI closed down -1.26%, and the SHCOMP is down -1.45%. The prior week, the NKY closed up +2.34%. The HSI rose +2.56%. The SHCOMP fell -0.98%. In September, the NKY closed up +7.97%, the HSI closed up +5.19%, and SHCOMP closed up +3.64%. In August, the NKY closed up +2.27%, the HSI closed up +2.33%, and the SHCOMP closed with a +6.49% gain.

    In 2013, the NKY is up +39.3%. The HSI is up +0.90%. The SHCOMP is down -4.16%. In 2012, the NKY rose +1.37%. The HSI rose +22.9%. The SHCOMP rose +3.17%.

    In Japan, the NKY closed at 14,484.72, compared to 14,455.80 the prior day, and -7.31% below its May 22nd 15,627.26 high. The index opened above 14,500 and rallied to a late morning 14,642.97 intraday high, but fell to support at 14,480 in early afternoon and again late in the session. The index closed +1.13%, +2.92%, +3.36% and +12.9% above its respective 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. Market segments closed mixed. Leaders were telecommunications, consumer goods, and consumer services, which rose at least +0.21%. Financials rose +0.18%. Laggards were basic materials, utilities, and oil and gas which fell at least -0.47%.

    In China, the HSI closed Monday at 22,859.86, compared to 23,207.04 at the prior close. The index closed -4.04% below its January 30th 23,207.04, but +25.7% above its 18,185.59 June 4, 2012 low. The HSI gapped lower to open below 22,960 and traded to support at 22,900 in early trading. Support held until late in the session, falling in the final 15 minutes to a late 22,845.44 intraday low. The index closed -0.07% below and +2.46% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages. Most market segments closed lower. Leaders were utilities, which rose +0.42%, and consumer services and industrials, which fell at least -1.18%. Financials fell -1.54%. Laggards were basic materials, consumer goods, and technology, which fell -1.84%.

    In Shanghai, the SHCOMP closed Monday at 2,174.67, compared to 2,160.03 at the prior close and +11.5% above the 1,950.01 June 27th closing low. The index opened at 2,168 and traded to an early 2,176.01 intraday high. The index found support at 2,166.00 through the session and rallied strongly in the final hour to extend the session's gains. The SHCOMP closed -0.11% below and +3.50% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages. All market segments closed at least +0.11% higher. Leaders were technology, consumer services and consumer goods, which rose at least +1.77%. Laggards were health care, financials, and oil and gas.

    In Europe, the major equity indexes are mostly higher, but off their best levels. The Euro Stoxx50 (SX5E), CAC 40, and DAX are up +0.53%, +0.68%, and +0.52%, respectively, while the FTSE 100 is down -0.32%. The Spanish IBEX 35 is up +0.79%. The Italian FTSE MIB is up +0.86%. All closed higher in September.

    Economic reporting focuses on individual country September PMIs. Commentary focuses on the latest developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown and Italian government's confidence.

    The SX5E currently trades -0.88% below its September 19th 52-week high close, and -44.6% below its March 31, 2000, all-time closing high. European bourses have recently outperformed U.S. equity indexes. SX5E relative strength (RSI) is 59.89, compared to 56.97 at the prior close, down from an overbought 72.74 on August 14th, but in a neutral 30-70 range.

    From its 2,893.15 prior day close, the SX5E rallied to a mid-morning 2,915.77 intraday high, then eased below 2,910 moving into the afternoon. The index trades currently at 2,909.22. Most market segments are higher. Leaders are industrials, financials, and consumer services, which are at least +0.95% higher. Laggards are basic materials and utilities, which are up at least +0.06%, and consumer goods, which is down -0.59%.

    Last week, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed down are down -0.27%, -1.27%, -0.40%, and -0.16%, respectively. The prior week, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed up +2.10%, +0.19%, +2.17%, and +1.95%, respectively. In September, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed up +6.31%, +0.77%, +5.33%, and +6.06%, respectively. In August, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed down -1.18%, -3.14%, -1.48%, and -2.09%, respectively. In 2013, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +10.4%, +9.38%, +14.7%, and +13.6%. In 2012, the indexes closed up +13.8%, +5.84%, +15.2%, and +29.1%, respectively.

    3Q2013 SPX Earnings. Of 19 (of 498) reporting companies, 13 or 68.4% surprised positively on earnings, with a +3.72% surprise average. Of reporting companies, 13 or 68.4% reported sales or revenues in excess of estimates. The average sales/revenue surprise is +0.60%.

    Valuation. The SPX trades at 16.4x 2012 earnings ($103.41), 15.3x estimated 2013 earnings ($110.09), 13.8x estimated 2014 earnings ($122.16), and 12.5x estimated 2015 earnings ($135.05). The 10-year average median price/earnings multiple is 15.9x. Analysts expect 2013, 2014, and 2015 earnings to grow +6.46% and +11.0%, and +10.6%respectively.

    Composite, index, and equity options. Options markets worsened to bearish to neutral, from neutral to bullish the prior session. Composite options are neutral, index options are bullish, and equity options are bearish. The composite put/call ratio is 1.10, compared to 0.94 the prior day, and worse than 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.91 and 0.90, respectively. The index put/call ratio is 1.07, compared to 0.98 the prior day, and worse than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 1.07 and 1.05, respectively. The equity put/call ratio closed the day at 1.12, compared to 0.92 the prior day, and worse than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.86 and 0.84, respectively.

    NYSE Volume, Breadth Indicators. Volume rose +35.6% to 878.14 million shares, from 647.72 million shares the prior day, 1.16x the 754.07 million share 20-day moving average. Market breadth was negative, and up volume lagged down volume. Advancing stocks lagged by -622 (compared to -1,062 the prior day), or 0.66:1. Up volume was 0.41:1 down volume.

    Distribution day count. The current "confirmed uptrend" resumed on September 8th, following a corrective trend that began on August 15th. Monday's distributions raised the distribution count to 3 on the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE Composite.

    Libor, LOIS, Currencies, Treasuries, Commodities:

    · USD LIBOR is 0.10500%, compared to 0.10500% the prior day. USD 3-month LIBOR is 0.24585%, up from 0.24885% the prior day, and compares to the January 4, 2013, recent peak of 0.58250%.

    · The US Libor-OIS (LOIS) spread is 14.385 bps, compared to 14.785 bps the prior day, and compares to the recent June 12, 2012 46.785 bps high. Euribor-OIS is 12.350 bps, up from 12.300 bps the prior day, and down from the December 27, 2011, high of 98.80 bps. Moves in the LOIS indicate changes in intra-bank lending risk premiums.

    · The 3-month Euro basis swap is -6.412 bps, compared to -6.875 bps the prior day, up from a trough of -147.00 bps on December 14, 2011, but far below a normal -10 bps and -40 bps range.

    · Spanish 10-year debt yields are 4.22%, down from -4.30% the prior day and up from the 4.039% May 3rd low. Italian 10-year debt yields are at 4.54%, up from 4.43% the prior day, but up from the 3.822% May 3rd low. German 10-year debt yields are 1.80%, compared to 1.78% the prior day. Japanese 10-year debt yields are 0.67%, compared to 0.69% the prior day.

    · The U.S. government overnight repo rate is 8 bps, compared to 5 bps the prior day. The January 2, 2013, 45 bps rate was the highest since late 2008. The 0.00 bps low was on January 31, 2009.

    · U.S. Treasury yields are higher, with 2- and 10-year maturities yielding 0.329% and 2.648%, respectively, compared to 0.317% and 2.610% Monday. The yield curve widened +2.630 bps, with the 2- to 10-year spread at +2.320%, compared to +2.293% the prior day. In the past year, the 2- and 10-year spread varied from a low of +1.342% on November 16, 2012, to a high of +2.498% on September 10, 2013.

    · The U.S. dollar is weaker compared to the British pound, euro, and Japanese yen. The dollar trades at US$80.032, compared to US$79.864 intraday low and US$80.221 the prior day, and worse compared to its $81.376 50-day, US$82.091 100-day, and US$81.765 200-day averages. The euro trades at US$1.3542, compared to a US$1.3588 intraday high and US$1.3527 the prior day. The euro trades better compared to its US$1.3335 50-day and US$1.3202 100-day averages, and compares to a multi-year low of US$1.1877 on June 7, 2010. In Japan, the dollar trades at ¥97.77, compared to ¥98.27 the prior day. The yen trades better than its 50-day moving average ¥98.48, and better than its May 17th 103.21 closing low.

    · Citigroup Economic Surprise Index improved to 50.50, compared to 46.50 the prior day. The index is better compared to its respective +47.60 and +45.26 5-day and 10-day moving averages. The index signaled exhaustion on December 20th, and from 55.76 moved lower to -30.80 on January 30th. The index turned positive on February 25th and moved to a March 25th high of 30.20, but turned negative again on May 6th and fell to a low of -32.90 on June 10th. The index improved and turned positive on July 30th. After a lag, the CESIUSD correlates with EPS revisions.

    · Commodities prices are mostly lower, with mixed energy, lower precious metals, higher aluminum and copper, and mixed higher agriculture prices.

    Volatility, Skew:

    · The CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 16.60, up +7.37% from 15.46 at the prior close. The VIX is +13.0% above its 14.69 20-day moving average. Its 30-day high is 17.81. Its 30-day low is 12.52. The index's all-time closing low is 11.26 on June 30, 1993. The long-term average is 20.18.

    · At mid-session, the Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index (V2X) is 18.74, down -3.64% from 19.45 at the prior day's close. The V2X index trades +0.03% above its 18.74 20-day moving average, -22.8% above the 24.27 30-day high, and +16.8% above the 16.04 30-day low.

    · The Hang Seng volatility index (VHSI) closed Monday at 16.95, up +12.3% from 15.10 the prior day. The VHSI index trades -1.02% below its 17.13 20-day moving average. Its lowest historical close was 11.72, on June 30, 2005.

    · CBOE SKEW (SKEW) closed at 123.46, down -0.82% from 124.48 at the prior day's close, and above a neutral (115-120) range for a 3rd consecutive day. The recent low was 112.47 on May 25, 2013. Spikes in excess of 130 (as on February 15 and 18, 2013 and previously on September 21, and March 12, 15, and 16, 2012) correlate well with short-term market tops. The recent high closes were 130.46 on February 15th and 130.60 on September 21st. The index rarely falls below 110, last on July 31, 2009. The index correlates with market tail risks, the cost of buying out-of-the-money, long-dated options, i.e., options not affected by expirations. A rise suggests that investors are buying more puts than calls, a bearish signal.

    U.S. Economic Reporting and News:

    · At 8:58, September final Markit US PMI, with 53.1 survey.

    · At 10:00, August MoM construction spending, with +0.4% survey and +0.6% prior.

    · September ISM manufacturing, with 55.0 survey and 55.7 prior. September ISM prices paid, with 55.0 survey and 54.0 prior.

    Overseas Economic Reporting and News:

    · Australia - September AiG manufacturing performance was 51.7, compared to 46.4 prior.

    · China - September manufacturing PMI was 51.1, compared to 51.6 survey and 51.0 prior. Subsector PMIs indicated areas of contraction.

    · Japan - August jobless rate rose to 4.1%, compared to 3.8% survey and prior.

    · Eurozone - September final manufacturing PMI was 51.1, with 51.1 survey and prior. August unemployment fell to 12.0%, with 12.1% survey and 12.0 revised prior.

    · France - September final manufacturing PMI was 49.8, with 49.5 survey and prior.

    · Germany - September final manufacturing PMI was 51.1, with 51.3 survey and 51.3 prior.

    · Italy - September manufacturing PMI was 50.8, with 51.1 survey and 51.3 prior.

    · Spain - September manufacturing PMI was 50.7, with 51.2 survey.

    · United Kingdom - September manufacturing PMI was 56.7, with 57.5 survey and 57.1 prior.

    Company Ratings/News:
     

    • None.


    Monday's Trade. On increased and above average volume, U.S. equity markets gapped lower in early trading, but halved losses by mid-afternoon, then eased lower into the close to end with moderate losses. The DJI fell -0.84%, followed by the NYSE composite, SPX, and Nasdaq, which fell -0.65%, -0.60%, and -0.27%, respectively. The DJ Transport Index (TRAN) closed with a modest loss. Since September 10th, the U.S. equity market trend is in "confirmed uptrend".

    Market breadth was negative, with gainers 0.66:1 losing stocks. All SPX market segments closed at least -0.11% lower. Leaders were utilities, health care, and basic materials. Laggards were financials, oil and gas, and consumer goods, which fell at least -0.76%.

    NYSE volume rose +35.6% to 878.14 million shares, from 647.72 million shares the prior day, 1.16x the 754.07 million share 20-day moving average volume. U.S. 10-year yields rose +3.64 bps to 2.6464%, from 2.6100% at the prior close.

    SPX futures suggested a large downward move at the open, and from its 1691.75 prior close, the SPX gapped lower to 1679 and fell immediately to 1674.99 in early trading. Support held, however, and the index improve to 1684 by mid-morning and rose to 1687 by mid-afternoon, when selling pressure increased again. The index tested support at 1678 in the final hour, then improved in the final minutes. The SPX closed at 1681.55, -2.55% below its September 18th 1725.52 record close. The index closed +56.5% above the 1074.77 October 4, 2011, intraday low.

    The TRAN ended at 6,582.43, down -0.23%, compared to the DJI's -0.84% loss. From its 6,597.59 prior close, the TRAN gapped lower to open below 6,5560 and fell to an early 6,522.66 intraday low, then improved to 6,580 by mid-morning and briefly reversed higher to 6,606.48 in late afternoon. The index weakened in the final hour. Volume rose +5.79% to 0.79:1 average volume. The TRAN closed +0.42%, +1.43%, +2.66%, and +7.02% above its respective 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages.

    Market volatility rose. From its prior 15.46 prior close, the VIX opened at its 17.49 intraday high, then eased to a mid-afternoon 16.16 intraday low. The index rose above 17.00 in the final hour, but settled at 16.60, up +7.37% on the day, and 13.0% above its 14.69 20-day moving average. The VIX's all-time closing low was 11.26, set June 30, 1993.

    The broader market's technical factors worsened, as the SPX surrendered its 20-day moving average, and the DJI closed below its 50-day moving average. The SPX also closed below its 5- and 10-day moving averages. The index closed above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. SPX relative strength (RSI) fell to 48.32, from 53.14 the prior day, and down from an overbought 72.13 on September 18th, when indexes closed at new records. The CBOE put/call skew fell -0.82% to 123.46, from 124.48 the prior day, and above a neutral 115-120 range for a 3rd consecutive day.

    Last week, the Nasdaq closed up +0.18%, while the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed down -1.06%, -1.25%, and -0.88%, respectively. The prior week, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +1.30%, +0.49%, +1.41%, and +1.40%, respectively. In September, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +2.97%, +2.16%, +5.06%, and +3.787%, respectively. In August, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed down -3.01%, -4.36%, -0.91%, and -2.61%, respectively.

    In 2013, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +17.9%, +15.5%, +24.9%, +14.0%, respectively. All closed at least +5.91% higher in 2012. Immediate SPX resistance is 1687. Immediate support is 1675, then 1669.

    KBW Bank Index (BKX). On higher and above average volume, the BKX closed at 62.25, down -0.27% from 62.31 at the prior day's close. The index gapped lower and set an immediate 61.49 intraday low, but improved quickly and rose to breakeven in early afternoon, then eased into the close. Volume rose +38.6% to 63.627 million shares, from 45.904 million shares the prior day, 1.15x the 55.507 million share 15-day moving average.

    Large cap banks underperformed the regional banks' performance, as the KBW regional banking index (KRX) rose +0.61%.

    Last week, the BKX closed down -1.84%, compared to a loss of -0.14% the prior week. In September, the BKX is up +0.34%. In August, the BKX closed down -5.41%. For the year, the BKX is up +21.4%, better than the SPX's +17.9% rise. In 2012, the index rose +18.1%, compared to a +13.4% rise in the SPX.

    The BKX is now +5.17% better than the June 24th 59.19 close, its worst since May 13th. The index crossed above 50 on December 17, 2012, and 60 on May 15th, 2013. The BKX closed +91.2% above the 32.56 intraday low on October 4, 2011. Large-cap bank stocks have outperformed the broader market's rebound, with the SPX up +56.5% in the same period.

    The BKX index closed -48.6% below its February 20, 2007, record 121.06 high. The BKX is up +234.3% from its 18.62 March 6, 2009, closing low.

    Technical indicators were little changed. The index closed below its 5-, 10-, 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages. The index closed -1.70% and -3.33% below its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages. The index closed -1.24% below and +5.75% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving averages. The index closed above its 100-day moving average from August 6, 2012 through September 20, 2013, when the average rose from 46.12 to 62.72. Monday, the 20-day moving average was unchanged. The 50-day moving average fell -7 bps. Its 100-day moving average rose +4 bps, and the 200-day moving average rose +6 bps. The 20-day closed (by -1.07 points) below the 50-day, and the gap narrowed +8 bps. The 50-day moving average closed (by +5.52 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap narrowed -8 bps. The 100-day moving average closed (by +4.16 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap narrowed -3 bps.

    The directional movement indicator worsened to -14.645, from -9.795 the prior day, its 6th consecutive negative reading, but in a neutral 30-70 range. Relative strength fell to 38.62, from 39.85 the prior day, down from 56.62 on September 18th, but up from the recent 34.64 August 27th low. The most recent lowest RSI level was 31.08 on November 14, 2012, which is also the date of the BKX's 52-week closing low. Next resistance is 62.68; next support is at 61.66.

    Price and Selling Exhaustion/Trend Reversal (based on TD sequential):

    S&P 500 Index (SPX) - On a monthly basis, the SPX initiated a buy setup in June 2008, with the month's 1404.05 high setting the resistance level. The setup perfected at 735.09 in February 2009. A sell setup ensued in May 2009. In September 2010, a follow-on setup began. The May 2009 setup perfected in January 2010. Its countdown completed in January 2012, closing at 1312.41 and setting a 1429.36 risk level. The follow-on setup perfected in May 2011. In March 2012, the index closed at 1408.47, above resistance, suggesting further upside. In September 2012, the index closed at 1440.67, above the 1429.36 risk level and suggesting the likelihood of further upside. In October and November, the index closed below the risk level, but above support. Also, the follow-on countdown rose to 8 in September 2012, but hasn't subsequently progressed. In August 2012, the index initiated a new sell setup, which perfected in April 2013. In May, the sell countdown stemming with the May 2011 perfection completed, setting a risk level of 1793.08, based on May's 105.90 range and 1687.18 high. In September, the index closed up +2.97% at 1681.55, compared to 1632.97 the prior month and 1630.74 four months prior. The May 2013 3 sell countdown is unchanged since June. The index closed -6.22% below the risk level.

    On a weekly basis, the SPX signaled selling exhaustion the week ended June 8th, during which the SPX traded to an intraweek 1266.74 low on June 4th, and then perfected a weekly buy setup with its 1325.66 close. The next week's bullish price flip initiated a sell setup that perfected on August 10th at 1405.87. On January 4th, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup, which perfected the week ending March 1. On January 31st, the sell countdown associated with August 10th perfection completed. On August 2nd, the March 1st sell countdown completed and set a 1737.48 risk level, based on the week's 27.81 point range and 1709.67 high. The week ending August 16th, a bearish price flip initiated a buy setup. In the week ending September 27th, the index fell -1.06% to 1691.75, compared to 1709.91 the prior week and its 1632.97 close four weeks prior. The September 13th sell setup progressed to 3. The index closed -2.63% below the 1737.48 risk level.

    On a daily basis, the SPX perfected a sell setup on March 13th, with a 1552.52 close. On April 29th, the March 13th sell countdown. On May 2nd, a bullish price flip initiated a follow-on sell setup, and on May 14th, the sell setup perfected and initiated a sell countdown, which completed on July 8th. On June 26th, a bullish price flip initiated another follow-on sell setup, and this setup perfected on July 9th and initiated a sell countdown. On September 3rd, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup, which perfected on September 13th. The associated sell countdown initiated on September 16th. Also on September 16th, the July 9th sell countdown completed and set a 1718.66 risk level, based on the day's 13.25 point range and 1704.95 intraday high. On Monday, the SPX fell -0.60% to 1681.55, compared to 1691.75 the prior day and 1697.42 4 days prior. The September 24th buy setup progressed to 6. The September 16th 4 sell countdown is unchanged since September 19th. The index closed -2.16% below the 1718.66 risk level.

    KBW Bank Index (BKX) - On a monthly basis, the BKX perfected a buy setup in December 2007, but has yet to complete its associated buy countdown, which is has been a deferred 13 since April 2011. That same month, the BKX initiated a buy setup, but the setup has remained unperfected since December 2011, when the index closed at 39.38. The buy countdown would complete with a close below 28.72, the February 2009 close with an 8 buy countdown. In September 2012, the index initiated a sell setup, which perfected in May 2013. In September, the index closed up +0.06% at 62.25, compared to 62.21 at August-end and 61.41 four months prior. The May 2013 sell countdown is unchanged since August 30th.

    On a weekly basis, a bullish price flip occurred on July 27, 2012, and the sell setup perfected the following September 21st. Subsequent trends were weak until December 7, when the index initiated a new sell setup, which perfected on February 1, 2013. On February 22nd, the September 21st sell countdown completed and set a 56.93 risk level. On July 19th, the February 1st sell countdown completed and set a 68.29 risk level, based on the day's 2.24 point range and 66.05 intraday high. For the week ending September 27th, the BKX closed down -1.84% at 62.42, compared to from 63.59 the prior week and 62.21 four weeks prior. The bearish price flip canceled the September 20th 1 sell setup and initiated a buy setup. The index closed -8.60% below the 68.29 risk level.

    On a daily basis, on December 17th, the 50.62 close above the November 1st 50.45 close and above the prior two days' close completed a sell countdown and initiated a sell setup, which perfected on February 13th. On March 14th, the sell setup closed above 57.22 and perfected. On March 19th, a bearish price flip initiated a buy setup with a 56.84 close. On April 1st, the buy setup perfected. On May 3rd, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup. On May 15th, the sell setup perfected. On June 26th, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup, which perfected on July 9th and initiated a sell countdown. On July 2nd, the index completed its May 15th sell countdown, which set a 64.06 risk level, based on the May 30th 1.14 point high/low range and 62.92 close. On July 24th, the July 12th sell setup perfected, but did not initiate a sell countdown. On August 8th a bearish price flip initiated a buy setup, which completed on August 19th and initiated a buy countdown. On September 16th, the September 4th sell setup perfected and initiated a sell countdown. Monday, the index fell -0.27% to 62.25, compared to 62.42 the prior day and 62.29 four days prior. The September 20th buy setup progressed to 7. September 16th 3 sell countdown is unchanged since September 18th. The index closed -2.83% below its 64.06 risk level.

    CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX) - On a monthly basis, the VIX perfected a sell setup in October 2007. The associated sell countdown progressed to a deferred 13 in June 2012, but is subsequently unchanged. In May a bullish flip initiated a sell countdown. The VIX ended September down -2.41% at 16.60, compared to 17.01 at the end of August and 16.30 at the end of May. The May 2013 sell setup progressed to 5.

    On a weekly basis, the VIX perfected a buy setup on January 27, 2012, and a sell setup on June 8th, followed by another perfected buy setup on August 10th. On April 12th, the VIX completed the buy countdown associated with the August 10th, setup, which also established a 9.17 risk level. The week ending September 27th, the VIX rose +17.8% to 15.46, compared to 13.12 the prior week, and 17.01 4 weeks prior. The September 13th buy setup progressed to 3. The index closed +48.5% above the risk level.

    On a daily basis, on May 20th a bullish flip initiated a sell setup, which perfected on May 31st and initiated a sell countdown. On June 26th, a bearish flip initiated a buy countdown, which perfected on July 9th, when a sell countdown was initiated. On September 13th, the September 4th buy setup perfected. On September 18th, a bearish flip initiated a buy setup. On September 20th, the July 9th buy countdown completed. Monday, the VIX rose +7.37% to 16.60, compared to 15.46 the prior day and 14.08 at the 4 days' prior close. The September 24th sell setup progressed to 5. The VIX closed +59.5% above the 10.41 risk level.

    U.S. 10-year Bond Index (USGG10YR) - On a monthly basis, the USGG10YR began a downward trend from 5.0506% in May 2006, perfecting a sell setup in April 2008 (at 3.7295%) and completing the associated buy countdown in June 2011 (at 3.1600%), when it produced a 1.1121% risk factor. A subsequent 9 buy setup perfected in May 2012, with the rate at 1.5578%. In September 2012, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup. The rate ended September 2013 down -17.21 bps at 2.6136%, compared to 2.7839% the prior month and 2.1282% 4 months prior. The May 2013 sell setup progressed to 5.

    On a weekly basis, on December 7th, a bullish rate flip (at 1.6215%) initiated a sell setup, which perfected on February 1st. The perfection initiated a sell setup. Subsequent trends were weak until a May 3rd bullish rate flip (at 1.7382%) initiated a sell setup, which perfected on June 28th, when the rate ended at 2.4857%. For the week ended September 20th, the rate ended at 2.6245%, down -10.92 bps from 2.7337% the prior Friday and 2.7839% four weeks prior. The September 20th buy setup progressed to 2. The February 1st 12 sell countdown is unchanged since September 13th. The rate closed 151.27 bps above the 1.119% risk level.

    On a daily basis, on February 20th, a bearish rate flip initiated a buy setup, which perfected on March 4th. On April 8th, the buy setup perfected. On April 15th, the buy countdown associated with the March 4th perfection completed and set a 1.6098% risk level, based on the April 5th 10.61 bps range between the intraday high and low rate and 1.7159% close. On May 15th, the May 3rd buy setup perfected. On June 24th, the May 20th sell countdown completed, setting a 2.8150% risk level, based on the June 24th 15.03 bps trading range and 2.6647% intraday high. On September 24th, the September 11th buy setup perfected and initiated a buy countdown. On Monday, the rate fell -1.45 bps to 2.6100%, compared to 2.6245% the prior day and 2.6552% four days prior. The September 24th buy countdown progressed to 3, its first change since September 25th. The rate closed -20.50 bps below the 2.8150% risk level.

    EURUSD Spot Exchange Rate (EURUSD Cross) - On a monthly basis, Euro Dollar cross perfected a buy setup on May 30, 2008, at 1.554. Subsequent monthly trends were weak until December 31, 2009, when a monthly decline of -4.56% brought the index to 1.4321. The downward move continued until July 2010, when from 1.2238, the index rose +7.10%, with an unperfected buy setup in August 2010. The index failed to establish much strong upward momentum, however, peaking at the end of April 2011 at 1.4807, but then trending lower to retest the July 2010 lows. In March, a bearish price initiated a buy setup. The cross ended September up +2.28% at 1.3222, compared to 1.3322 the prior month and 1.2999 4 months prior. The July 2013 sell setup progressed to 3. The 9 buy countdown progressed is unchanged since March.

    On a weekly basis, the cross perfected a buy setup on January 6th, followed by another buy setup and completed countdown on June 1, 2012, when the cross closed at 1.2434. The cross completed a buy countdown on July 27th, and set a 1.1964 risk level. The index initiated an sell setup the week ended August 3rd, when it closed at 1.2387, and the setup perfected on September 28, with a 1.2860 close. On January 18th, the index completed a sell setup at 1.336. On September 20th, the April 12th sell countdown completed. The week of September 27th, the index fell -0.01% to end at 1.3522, compared to 1.3524 the prior week and 1.3222 4 weeks prior. The September 20th sell setup progressed to 2. The cross closed +12.8% above the 1.1964 risk level.

    On a daily basis, on February 14th, a bearish price flip initiated a sell setup, which subsequently perfected on February 26th. On April 4th, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup, which perfected on April 12th. On June 7th, the sell countdown associated with the April 12th perfection completed. The completion set a 1.3537 risk level, based on the June 6th 0.0231 trading range and 1.3306 intraday high. On June 11th, the May 29th sell setup perfected and initiated a sell countdown. On July 2nd, the June 20th buy setup perfected and initiated a buy countdown. On July 10th, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup, which perfected on July 22nd. On September 16th, the July 2nd sell countdown completed. On September 19th, the September 9th sell setup perfected and initiated a sell countdown. With Monday's +0.01% higher close, the EURUSD cross ended at 1.3524, compared to 1.3522 the prior day and 1.3474 four days prior. The September 27th sell setup progressed to 2. The September 19th 1 sell countdown is unchanged since September 19th. The cross closed -0.11% below the 1.3537 risk level.

    Euro Stoxx 50 (SX5E) - On a monthly basis, the Euro Stoxx50 perfected a sell setup on May 31, 2007. It perfected a buy setup on September 30, 2008. The buy countdown completed in May 2012. A bullish price flip in August 2012 initiated a sell setup, which perfected in May 2013 and initiated a sell countdown. In September, the index closed up +6.31% at 2,893.15, compared to 2,721.37 the prior month and 2,769.64 four months prior. The July 31st sell setup progressed to 3. The May 2013 sell countdown progressed to 2, its first changed since May 2013.

    On a weekly basis, a bullish price flip the week of November 23rd (2,557.03 close) initiated a sell setup that perfected on January 18th at 2,709.59, up +5.97%. The sell countdown associated with the August 10th perfection also completed on January 18th, when the index closed at 2,709.59, up +24.2% over the June 15th bullish price flip. The completion set a 2,785.45 risk level. Since January 18th, the subsequent trend was lower, until a bullish price flip in the week ending July 12th. On August 16th, the sell countdown stemming from the January 18th perfection completed and set a 2,909.37 risk level, based on the August 16th week's 53.48 range and 2,855.89 intraweek high. In the week ended September 27th, the index fell -0.27% to 2,919.34, compared to 2,927.19 the prior week and 2,721.37 at the 4 weeks' prior close. The September 13th sell setup rose to 3. The index closed +1.50% above the 2,909.37 risk level.

    On a daily basis, on January 3rd, the index completed the associated countdown (with a 2,701.22 close) and set a 2,786.57 risk level, based on the prior day's 2,711.25 high and 51.46 intraday range. On March 14th, the March 4th sell setup perfected. On March 18th, a bearish price flip initiated a buy setup, which perfected on March 28th, and initiated a buy countdown. On April 23rd, a bullish price flip initiated a sell countdown, which perfected on May 3rd. On June 12th, the May 31st buy setup perfected and initiated a buy countdown. On July 8th, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup, which perfected on July 18th and initiated a sell countdown. On August 15th, the July 18th sell countdown completed and set a 2,876.19 risk level, based on the day's 32.11 point range and 2835.86 close. On September 17th, the September 5th sell setup perfected and initiated a sell countdown. Monday, the index fell -0.90% to 2,893.15, compared to 2,919.34 the prior day and 2,922.93 at the prior 4 days' close. The bearish price flip canceled the September 27th 2 sell setup and initiated a buy setup. The September 17th 4 sell countdown is unchanged since September 20th. The index closed +1.50% above the 2,876.19 risk level.

    Nikkei 225 (NKY) - On a monthly basis, the NKY perfected a buy setup on April 30, 2009 (at 8,828.26), but subsequently traded narrowly until November, 2012, when the index rose +5.80%, following an increase of +1.50% in October, and initiated a sell setup. In July 2013, the November 2012 sell setup progressed to 9, but did not perfect. In September, the index rose +7.97% to 14,455.80, compared to 13,388.86 the prior month and 13,774.54 four months prior. The bullish price flip canceled the August 31st 1 buy setup and initiated a sell setup.

    On a weekly basis, the NKY perfected a sell setup on March 9th, and a subsequent buy setup on June 1st with a countdown of 8. The index initiated a sell setup on October 26th, and on December 21st, the sell setup perfected. Notably, on December 28th, the index closed at 10,395.18, +2.01% above 10,190.35 resistance (its April 4th weekly high), suggesting further upside. The sell countdown associated with the December 21st perfection completed April 5th and set a 14,645.46 risk level, based on the 1,419.84 point range on that day and 13,225.62 intraday high. For the week ending September 27th, the index closed up +0.12% at 14,760.07, compared to 14,742.42 the prior week and 13,388.86 four weeks prior. The September 6th sell setup progressed to 4. The index closed +0.66% above the 14,645.46 risk level.

    On a daily basis, on March 27th, a bearish price flip initiated a buy setup, which perfected on April 15th. On May 7th, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup. On May 17th, the sell setup perfected; also, the sell countdown associated with the April 26th perfection completed. The completion set a 15,412.34 risk level, which is based on the May 16th 15,155.72 intraday high and 276.21 point range. On June 4th, the May 23rd buy setup perfected and initiated a buy countdown. On July 10th, the June 28th sell setup perfected, cancelled the June 4th 7 buy countdown, and initiated a sell countdown. On August 2nd, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup. On September 4th, the July 10th sell countdown completed. The completion set a 15,493.30 risk level, based on the July 19th 540.01 point range and 14,953.29 high. On September 12th, the September 2nd sell setup perfected. Tuesday, the index rose +0.20% to 14,484.72, compared to 14,455.80 the prior day and 14,620.53 four days prior. The September 30th buy setup progressed to 2. The September 18th 5 sell countdown is unchanged since September 27th. The index closed -6.51% below the 15,493.30 risk level.

    Hang Sang Index (HSI) - On a monthly basis, the HSI perfected a buy countdown on March 31, 2009, and two subsequent perfected upward setups on December 31, 2009 and May 31, 2011. In February, the index closed at 23,020.27, completing the sell countdown stemming from the May 2011 perfection. The completed countdown set a 27,194.16 risk level. A bullish price flip in September 2012 initiated a sell setup. A bearish price flip in May 2013 initiated a buy setup. In September, the index rose +5.19% to 22,859.86, compared to 21,731.37 the prior month and 22,392.16 four months prior. The bullish price flip cancelled the May 2013 4 buy setup and initiated a sell setup. The index closed -15.9% below the risk level.

    On a weekly basis, the HSI perfected a sell setup on March 2, 2012, and the associated sell countdown completed on September 21, 2012, and set a 22,357.00 risk level, based on the September 14, 2012, when it set a 22,357.00 risk level. The index perfected two sell setups on November 9th and February 1st. A buy setup initiated the following week and perfected on April 5th, initiating a sell countdown. For the week ended September 27th, the index closed down -1.26% to 23,207.04, compared to 23,502.51 the prior week and 21,731.37 four weeks prior. The September 6th sell setup progressed to 4. The April 5th 7 buy countdown is unchanged since August 30th. The index closed +3.80% above the risk level.

    On a daily basis, on April 19th, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup, which perfected on May 2nd and initiated a sell countdown. On June 4th, the May 23rd buy setup perfected and initiated a buy countdown. On June 20th, a bearish price flip initiated a buy setup. On June 25th, the June 4th buy countdown completed and set a 18,860.42 risk level, which is based on the day's 565.94 trading range and 19,426.36 intraday low. On September 12th, the September 2nd sell setup perfected and on September 16th, a sell countdown initiated. On Monday, the index fell -1.50% to 22,859.86, compared to 23,207.04 the prior day and 23,371.54 four days prior. The September 26th buy setup progressed to 3. The September 16th 4 sell countdown progressed is unchanged since September 23. The index closed +21.2% above the 18,860.42 risk level.

    Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) - On a monthly basis, the SHCOMP perfected a buy setup on September 30, 2008, and subsequently rallied to an August 31, 2009, high, but without perfecting a subsequent sell setup. In May 2011, the SHCOMP assumed a downward trend and perfected a buy setup on January 31, 2012. The perfection initiated a buy setup. In April 2013, a bearish price flip initiated a buy setup. In September, the index closed up +3.64% at 2,174.67, compared to 2,098.38 the prior month and 2,300.60 four months prior. The April 30th buy setup progressed to 6. The January 2012 9 buy countdown is unchanged since July 2013.

    On a weekly basis, on December 14th, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup at 2,059.47. That setup perfected on February 8th, with a 2,432.40 close, up +18.1%. On September 20th, the July 26th sell setup perfected and initiated a sell countdown. On September 27th, the index closed the week down -1.45% at 2,160.03, compared to 2,191.85 the prior week and 2,098.38 four weeks prior. The September 20th sell countdown was unchanged.

    On a daily basis, On December 4th, a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup. On January 14th, the sell setup that began on December 25th perfected; also, the bullish price flip initiated a follow-on sell setup. On March 26th, a bearish price flip initiated a buy setup, which perfected on April 9th. On June 3rd, a bearish price flip initiated a buy setup, which perfected on June 19th, and initiated a buy countdown. On June 7th, the April 9th buy countdown completed and set a 2,142.63 buy risk level. On July 30th, the June 19th buy countdown completed and set a 1,735.74 risk level, based on the June 25th 113.91 point trading range and 1,849.65 intraday low. On August 13th, the August 1st sell setup perfected and initiated a sell countdown. On September 3rd a bullish price flip initiated a sell setup, which perfected on September 13th and initiated a sell countdown. Monday, the index rose +0.68% to 2,174.67, compared to 2,160.03 at the prior close and 2,207.53 4 days prior. The September 26th buy setup progressed to 3. The August 13th 12 sell countdown is unchanged since September 24th. The index closed +25.3% above the July 30th 1,735.74 risk level.

    SPX, DJI, RTY, TRAN, CCMP, NYA, VIX, SKEW, NKY, EURUSD, USGG10YR, HSI, SHCOMP, SX5E, CAC, DAX, FTSE, JPY, GBP, EUR

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