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Gary Townsend - Founding member and Chairman, GBT Capital Management, LLC, a macro long/short fund based in Chevy Chase, Maryland. Also, 2007-2013, a founding partner, CEO and Portfolio Manager of Hill-Townsend Capital LLC, a long/short equity financial sector fund. Mr. Townsend has 35 years... More
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  • U.S. Futures Reverse Higher On Citigroup Earnings, Retail Sales; Asia Modestly Mixed; Europe Rallies Following Early Losses 0 comments
    Apr 14, 2014 9:29 AM | about stocks: C, MTB

    This morning. Today, U.S. equity futures have reversed higher and suggest moderate gains following last week's consecutive distributions. In Asia, equity markets closed mixed. In Europe, indexes have reversed positively and modestly higher in early afternoon. The dollar is slightly stronger. Commodities are mostly higher. Tuesday's Nikkei 225 June 2014 (NKM4) equity futures are up +0.932%. The U.S. trading week is shortened by this Friday's Good Friday holiday.

    U.S. economic reporting focuses on Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) component Citigroup, which surprised with stronger than expected earnings and revenues.

    On April 4th, the U.S. equity markets distributed, and the market outlook worsened to "in correction", ending a brief "confirmed uptrend" that began on April 1st. The SPX opens -3.98% below the April 2nd record 1890.90 close.

    Friday, on greater and above average volume, major equity indexes distributed for a 2nd consecutive session, though losses weren't nearly so sharp as on Thursday. The S&P 500 (SPX), DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed down -0.95%, -0.89%, -1.34%, and -0.83%, respectively. The DJ Transports (TRAN) fell -0.93%.

    U.S. equity markets gapped lower, but attempted a late morning rally, which failed. Indexes trended lower through the afternoon session to a late afternoon loans. Notably, NYSE volume rose +5.70% to 1.05x its 20-day moving average. All the major indexes are now at least -1.15% lower in 2014.

    The damage was worse in other notable indexes. The Russell 2000 (RTY), Nasdaq Internet (QNET), and Nasdaq Biotech (NBI) fell -1.44%, -1.81%, and -2.84%, respectively. The QNET is in correction, down -16.8%, while the NBI fell into bear market territory, down 21.1%, from recent highs.

    The 1Q2014 earnings reports began on March 15th, though only 30 of 500 SPX companies have now reported.

    Trading desks reported Chinese equity market outperformance, while Europe focused early on Ukrainian developments, though most European bourses improved following positive Citigroup earnings at 8:00 and better than expected March U.S. retail sales. In Friday's trading, desk flows were heavy (though orderly) through the morning session, but faded through the afternoon. Sentiment is poor.

    Price earnings multiples remain elevated. With SPX equities trading at a 16.5 (compared to 16.6x the prior day) 2013 earnings multiple, attention focuses on 2014 earnings and valuations (16.5x times survey $117.10 2014 SPX operating earnings suggests a 1,930.20 SPX level next year, a +6.31% rise).

    Technicals worsened. Led by consumer services and health care, all SPX market segments closed at least -0.36%. Market breadth was negative, and up volume lagged down volume. Volatility rose. Treasury bond markets strengthened. On the day, the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond yield fell -2.27 bps to 2.6247%, compared to 2.6474% at the prior close.

    This morning, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are up +1.36 bps at 2.6373%, compared to the prior close. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields are near their lowest levels since 2005, at 3.15% and 3.19%, respectively, compared to 3.19% and 3.21% the prior day.

    U.S. options markets are unchanged at bearish to bullish, compared to bearish to bullish the prior day. The CBOE SKEW is in a neutral range.

    In pre-market futures trading, June SPX equity futures (SPM4) price near the bottom of a 1804-1819 trading range. After a fair value adjustment of -2.46 points, the SPM4 future prices at 1818.25, up +8.71 points. The SPX opens -2.47%, -1.52%, and -0.68% below its respective 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages, and +3.08% above its 200-day moving averages. Initial resistance is 1860.12. Initial support is 1829.05, then 1808.34.

    In Asia, equity markets closed mixed, with continued weakness in Japan, but modest gains in China. On the day, the Nikkei 225 (NYSEARCA:NKY) fell -0.36%. The NKY is in correction. The Hang Sang index (HSI) rose +0.15%. The Shanghai SE composite (SHCOMP) index rose +0.05%. Today's volumes are unavailable.

    In Japan, commentary focused currency and commodity price developments. Last week, the NKY closed down -7.33%%, while the HSI and SHCOMP closed up +2.19% and +3.48%, respectively, compared to the NKY, HSI, and SHCOMP which closed up +2.50%, +2.01%, and +0.84%, respectively. In April, the NKY is down -6.19%, while the HSI and SHCOMP are up +4.01% and +4.83%, respectively, compared to March, when the NKY, HSI, and SHCOMP lost -0.09%, -3.00%, and -1.12%, respectively.

    In 2014, the NKY and HSI are down -14.6% and -1.15%, respectively, while the SHCOMP is up +0.74%. In 2013, the NKY rose +56.7%. The HSI closed up +2.87%. The SHCOMP closed down -6.75%.

    In China, short-term interbank lending rates remained volatile and fell -14 bps to 3.56%, compared to 3.70% on Friday, up from a 2.26% low on March 11th, but down from the February 7th 5.41% recent high.

    Regional relative strength indexes (RSI) show Tokyo in the lower end of a neutral range, while Hong Kong and Shanghai are near the top of neutral ranges. The NKY RSI fell to 33.06, compared to 33.84 the prior day, up from an oversold 27.92 on February 4th, the most recent prior yearly low. The HSI RSI fell to 64.45, compared to 63.92 the prior day. The SHCOMP's RSI rose to 66.00, compared to 65.83 the prior session. On June 27, 2013, the index's RSI fell to a low of 15.27, which was also last year's low index close.

    In Japan, the NKY closed at 13,910.16, compared to 13,960.05 the prior day, -14.6% below its recent year-end 16,291.31 high and -64.3% below its late-1989 38,915.87 high close. The index gapped lower to open below 13,900, but rallied to reserve higher through most of the session, then weakened into the close. The early morning intraday low was 13,885.22 intraday low, but rallied to a late morning 14,008.29 intraday high. The index closed -4.42%, -5.17%, -7.96%, and -4.78% below its respective 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. Most market segments closed lower. Leaders were oil and gas, technology, and consumer goods, which rose +0.33%. Laggards were financials, telecommunications, and consumer services, which fell at least -0.39%.

    In China, the HSI closed at 23,038.80, compared to 23,003.64 at the prior close. The index opened at the 22,911.82 intraday low, but quickly reversed higher, set an early 23,090.94 intraday high, then traded narrowly around breakeven through the close. Most market segments closed higher. Leaders were consumer goods, utilities, and industrials, which rose at least +0.45%. Laggards were financials, which rose +0.09%, and consumer services, and telecommunications, which fell at least -0.04%. The index closed -3.65% below its recent December 3rd 23,910.47 high, but +26.7% above its 18,185.59 June 4, 2012 low.

    In Shanghai, the SHCOMP closed at 2,131.54, compared to 2,130.54 at the prior close, +9.31% above the 1,950.01 June 27th close, last year's low. The index opened modestly lower, then rose to an early 2,134.43 intraday high, then reversed lower to a late morning 2,116.69 intraday low. The index rallied through the afternoon, reversing higher in the session's final minutes. Most market segments closed higher. Leaders were technology, oil and gas, and consumer goods, which rose at least +0.48%. Laggards were utilities, which rose +0.01%, and financials and telecommunications, which fell at least -0.48%.

    In Europe, after opening sharply lower, major equity indexes have reversed positively to modest gains. The Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +0.26%, +0.06%, +0.15%, and +0.05%, respectively. The Spanish IBEX 35 is down -0.40%, and the Italian FTSE MIB up +0.23%. Commentary focuses on the Ukrainian tensions and commodity and currency pricing developments.

    Economic reporting is light. Commentary focuses on today's U.S. earnings reports.

    European bourses have recently outperformed U.S. equity indexes. Intraday Euro Stoxx50 relative strength (RSI) is 46.83, compared to 46.42 at the prior close, in a neutral (30-70) range, but better than its recent February 5th 33.57 low, which coincided with its 2014 low. The indexes lowest recent RSI level was 25.77 on June 24th, which marked the 2013 2,494.54 closing low.

    Today, the Euro Stoxx50 trades at 3,117.16, -3.50% below its 3,230.33 April 4th post-2008 high close, and -40.6% below its 5,249.55 March 31, 2000, all-time closing high. From its prior day 3,116.54 close, the index gapped lower to open below 3,105 and fell to a late morning 3,083.43 intraday low. The index subsequently rallied to an early afternoon 3,118.69 intraday high. Most market segments are now higher. Leaders are oil and gas, consumer goods, and basic materials, which are up at least +0.65%. Laggards are utilities, financials, and industrials, which are down at least -0.21%.

    Last week, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed down -3.52%, -2.00%, -2.65%, and -3.29%, respectively. The prior week, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed up +1.83%, +1.21%, +1.66%, and +1.13%, respectively. In April, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, and CAC 40 are down -1.40%, -0.58%, -0.62%, and -2.64%, respectively. In March, Euro Stoxx50 closed up +0.39%, while the FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed down -3.10%, -0.38%, and -1.40%, respectively.

    In 2014, the indexes are mixed. The Euro Stoxx50 and CAC 40 are up +0.24% and 1.57%, respectively, while the FTSE 100 and DAX are down -2.84%, and -2.47%, respectively. In 2013, the indexes closed up +18.0%, +14.4%, +18.0%, and +25.5%, respectively.

    1Q2014 SPX Earnings. Of 30 (of 500) reporting companies, 17 or 56.7% surprised positively on earnings, with an average +2.86% surprise average. Of reporting companies, 15 or 51.7% reported sales or revenues above estimates. The average sales/revenue surprise is -0.01%. Consumer discretionary leads with respective +6.72% and +0.33% earnings and revenue surprises. Industrials lag with respective -10.9% and -0.96% revenues surprises.

    Valuation. The SPX trades at 16.5x estimated 2013 earnings ($110.15), 15.5x estimated 2014 earnings ($117.10), 13.9x estimated 2015 earnings ($130.56), and 12.5x estimated 2016 earnings ($145.03). The 10-year average median price/earnings multiple is 15.9x. Analysts expect 2014, 2015, and 2016 earnings to grow +5.83%, +11.5%, and 12.1%, respectively.

    The KBW Bank Index (BKX) trades at 13.3x 2013 adjusted EPS ($5.16), 12.5x estimated 2014 earnings ($5.46), 11.2x estimated 2015 earnings ($6.09), and 10.0x 2016 earnings ($6.83). Analysts expect 2014, 2015, 2016 EPS will grow +5.83%, +11.5%, and +12.1%, respectively.

    Composite, index, and equity options. Options markets are unchanged at bearish to bullish, compared to bearish to bullish the prior session. Composite options are neutral, index options are bullish, and equity options are bearish. The composite put/call ratio is 1.18, compared to 1.01 the prior day, and worse than 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.94 and 0.91, respectively. The index put/call ratio is 0.99, compared to 0.88 the prior day, and worse than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.94 and 0.97, respectively. The equity put/call ratio closed the day at 1.26, compared to 1.12 the prior day, and worse than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.96 and 0.90, respectively.

    NYSE Volume, Breadth Indicators. Volume rose +5.70% to 815.15 million shares, compared to 771.16 million shares the prior day, 1.05x the 778.74 million share 20-day moving average. By large margins, market breadth was negative, and up volume lagged down volume. Advancing stocks lagged by -1,364 (compared to -1,738 the prior day), or 0.38:1. Up volume was 0.25:1 down volume.

    Market Outlook and Distribution Day Count. On April 4th, the U.S. equity markets distributed and the market outlook worsened to "in correction", ending a brief "confirmed uptrend" that began on April 1st. The SPX opened April 4th at a record 1888.77, up +0.88% from the April 1st 1872.34 open. Today, the SPX opens -3.98% below the April 2nd record close.

    Libor, LOIS, Currencies, Treasuries, Commodities:

    · USD LIBOR is 0.08700%, compared to 0.08700% the prior day. USD 3-month LIBOR is 0.22865%, down from 0.22645% the prior day, and compares to the January 4, 2013, recent peak of 0.58250%.

    · The US Libor-OIS (LOIS) spread is 18.535 bps, compared to 14.445 bps the prior day, and compares to the recent June 12, 2012, 46.785 bps high. Euribor-OIS is 13.400 bps, up from 13.500 bps the prior day, and down from the December 27, 2011, high of 98.800 bps. Moves in the LOIS indicate changes in intra-bank lending risk premiums.

    · The 3-month Euro basis swap is -1.777 bps, compared to -1.459 bps the prior day, up from a trough of -147.00 bps on December 14, 2011, but far better than a normal -10 bps and -40 bps range.

    · German 10-year debt yields are 1.51%, compared to 1.50% the prior day. Japanese 10-year debt yields are 0.61%, compared to 0.61% the prior day.

    · Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields are at their best levels since 2005. Spanish 10-year debt yields are 3.15%, compared to 3.19% the prior day. Italian 10-year debt yields are at 3.19%, compared to 3.21% the prior day.

    · U.S. Treasury yields are slightly higher, with 2- and 10-year maturities yielding 0.359% and 2.629%, respectively, compared to 0.355% and 2.625% Friday. The yield curve widened +0.050 bps, with the 2- to 10-year spread at +2.270%, compared to 2.270% the prior day. In the past year, the 2- and 10-year spread varied from a low of +1.429% on May 1, 2013, to a high of +2.648% on December 31, 2013.

    · The U.S. dollar is slightly stronger compared to the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound. The dollar trades at US$79.706, compared to a US$79.771 intraday high and US$79.452 the prior day, and worse compared to its $80.085 50-day, US$80.333 100-day, and US$80.731 200-day averages. The euro trades at US$1.3826, compared to a US$1.3816 intraday low and US$1.3885 the prior day. The euro trades better compared to its US$1.3764 50-day and US$1.3708 100-day averages, and compares to a multi-year low of US$1.1877 on June 7, 2010. In Japan, the dollar trades at ¥101.75, compared to ¥101.62 the prior day. The yen trades better than its 50-day moving average ¥102.35, and better than its January 1st 105.31 closing low, its weakest prior multi-year closing low.

    · Citigroup Economic Surprise Index improved to -40.20, compared to -41.80 the prior day, at its worst level since May 2012 and continuing its string of consecutive negative readings since February 18th. The index is mixed compared to its respective -43.66 5-day and -40.34 10-day moving averages. Last June 10th, the index fell to a then 52-week low of -33.26. The index improved and turned positive on July 30th and rose to 53.30 on October 1st, but subsequently fell on dollar weakness to -2.10 on October 31st. It subsequently strengthened to a +72.70 high on January 15th, but then subsequently trended lower and turned negative on February 19th and fell to a -43.80 124-week low on April 7th . After a lag, the CESIUSD correlates with EPS revisions.

    · Commodities prices are mostly higher, with higher energy, mixed precious metals, mixed aluminum and copper, and mostly higher agriculture prices.

    Volatility, Skew:

    · The CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX) rose +7.17% to 17.03, compared to 15.09 at the prior close. The VIX is +16.5% above the 14.62 20-day moving average. Its 30-day high is 18.22. Its 30-day low is 12.60. The index's all-time closing low is 9.31 on December 22, 1993. The long-term average is 20.14.

    · The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index (V2X) is 19.77, up +8.08% compared to 18.30 at the prior day's close. The V2X index trades +10.6% above its 17.88 20-day moving average, -18.8% below the 24.35 30-day high, and +27.6% above the 15.50 30-day low.

    · The Hang Seng volatility index (VHSI) closed at 15.80, down -2.65%, compared to 16.34 at the prior close. The VHSI index trades -3.22% below its 16.34 20-day moving average. Its lowest historical close was 11.72, on June 30, 2005.

    · CBOE SKEW (SKEW) fell -2.01% to 122.59, compared to 125.11 the prior session, above a neutral reading (115-120), but again below 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops. The recent record high was 143.20 on December 20th. Its recent low was 112.47 on May 25, 2013. Spikes in excess of 130 correlate well with short-term market tops, though not in October or November. The index rarely falls below 110, last on July 31, 2009. The index correlates with market tail risks, the cost of buying out-of-the-money, long-dated options, i.e., options not affected by expirations. A rise suggests that investors are buying more puts than calls, a bearish signal.

    U.S. Economic Reporting and News:
     

    • March MoM advance retail sales rose 1.1%, compared to t+0.9% survey and +0.7% revised prior.
    • March MoM retail sales ex auto and gas rose 1.0%, compared to +0.4% survey and +0.4% revised prior.
    • At 10:00, February business inventories, with +0.5% survey and +0.4% prior.


    Overseas Economic Reporting and News:
     

    • Eurozone - February MoM industrial production rose +0.2%, compared to +0.2% survey and +0.0% revised prior.
    • United Kingdom - April MoM Rightmove house prices rose +2.6%, compared to +1.6% prior.


    Company Ratings/News:
     

    • Citigroup (NYSE:C) - Reported 1Q2014 adjusted EPS of $1.300, compared to $1.137 survey. Revenues were $20.117 billion, compared to $19.385 billion survey.
    • M&T Bank Corp (NYSE:MTB) - Reported 1Q2014 adjusted EPS of $1.610, compared to $1.613 survey. Revenues were $1.082 billion, compared to $1.104 billion survey.


    Friday's Trade. On greater and above average NYSE volume, U.S. equity indexes distributed again. On the day, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite fell -0.95%, -0.89%, -1.34%, and -0.83%, respectively. All ended lower on the week, in April, and in 2014.

    Other notable indexes fared even more poorly as the sector rotation continued. The Russell 2000 (RTY) fell -1.44%, and is -8.04% below its March 4th record close. The Nasdaq Internet Index (QNET) fell -1.81%, and is in correction at -16.8% below its March 6th closing high. The Nasdaq Biotech Index (NBI) fell -2.84%, in a bear market, down -21.1% from its recent February 25th record high.

    On April 4th, the U.S. equity markets distributed, and the market outlook worsened to "in correction", ending a brief "confirmed uptrend" that began on April 1st. Today, the SPX opens -3.98% below the April 2nd record 1890.90 close.

    Market breadth was negative, with gainers 0.38x losing stocks. All SPX market segments closed at least -0.11% lower. Leaders were utilities, oil and gas, and telecommunications. Laggards were basic materials, consumer services, and financials, which fell at least -1.13%.

    NYSE volume rose +5.70% to 815.15 million shares, compared to 771.16 million shares the prior day, 1.05x the 778.74 million share 20-day moving average volume. On the day, bond markets strengthened markedly. The U.S. 10-year yield opened at 2.6392%, and traded narrowly around 2.650% through early afternoon, when yields fell as low at 2.6040% before easing higher to the close. The yield closed at 2.6247%, down -2.27 bps compared to the 2.6474% prior close.

    From its prior day 1833.08 SPX close, June 2014 SPX futures (SPM4) suggested a moderately lower open. The SPX index gapped lower to open below 1825, found early support at 1820 and then rallied to a late morning 1835.07 intraday high. Ahead of the weekend, buying demand eased and the index trended lower through the afternoon to a late afternoon 1814.36 intraday low. The SPX ended at 1815.69, -3.98% below its 1890.90 April 2nd record close. The index closed +68.9% above the 1074.77 October 4, 2011, intraday low, the bottom of the most recent correction.

    The DJ Transportation index (TRAN) fell -0.93%, compared to DJI's -0.89% loss. From its prior 7,431.23 close, the TRAN traded narrowly lower through mid-morning, then weakened with the broader market and trended lower through the session to a late 7,424.30 intraday low. The TRAN closed at 7,431.23, its worst since March 27th. Volume fell -5.29% to 14.061 million shares, compared to 14.074 million shares the prior session, and 1.14x the 15-day moving average volume. The TRAN closed -2.21% and -0.62% below its 20- and 50-day moving averages, but +0.30% and +5.63% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving averages.

    Market volatility rose +7.17%, as the CBOE SPX volatility index (VIX) closed at 17.03, compared to 15.89 at the prior close. The VIX opened at 16.50, and traded narrowly through early afternoon, then trended higher to a late afternoon 17.85 intraday high. The VIX's all-time closing low was 9.31, on December 22, 1993. Its record high was 89.53 in December 2008. Its lifetime average is 20.01. The CBOE put/call SKEW fell -2.01% to 122.59, compared to 125.11 the prior session, above a neutral 115-120 range, but below 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops.

    The market's technical factors worsened, as the NYSE composite closed below its 50-day moving average. All major indexes closed below their 5-, 10-, 20-, and 50-day moving averages. The SPX relative strength (RSI) fell to 38.61, compared to 42.53 the prior day, in a neutral range, and better than an oversold 31.24 on February 3rd. The RSI is also down from an overbought 71.26 on December 31st, when the SPX closed at an earlier record high, but above earlier oversold levels of 35.14 on August 27th and 39.19 on October 9th. Last week, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed down -2.26%, -1.82%, -3.75%, and -1.48%, respectively. The prior week, the SPX and NYSE composite closed down -0.48% and -2.83% respectively, while the DJI and NYSE composite rose +0.12% and +0.41%. In April, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are down -3.03%, -2.62%, -4.75%, and -2.34%, respectively. In March, the DJI and NYSE composite closed up +0.01% and +0.09%, respectively, while the SPX and Nasdaq are down -0.10% and -3.54%, respectively.

    In 2014, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are down -1.77%, -3.32%, -4.23%, and -1.15%, respectively. In 2013, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +29.6%, +26.5%, +38.2%, +23.2%, respectively. All closed at least +5.91% higher in 2012.

    KBW Bank Index (BKX). On greater and above average volume, the BKX fell -1.12% to 68.09, compared to 68.86 at the prior day's close, its 2nd consecutive below 70.0, its lowest close since March 4th, and -6.61% below its 72.91 March 20th post-2008 closing high. The index opened lower and fell to an immediate 67.40 intraday low, then rallied by late morning back to breakeven and the 68.93 intraday high. The index trended lower to 68.0 by late afternoon, then traded narrowly to the close. Volume rose +17.7% to 73.655 million shares, compared to 62.584 million shares the prior day, and 1.40x the 52.680 million share 15-day moving average.

    Large cap banks underperformed the regional banks, as the KBW regional banking index (KRX) fell -0.99%.

    Last week, the BKX is down -4.69%, compared to a decline of -1.73% the prior week. In April, the BKX is down -5.81%, compared to March, when the BKX closed up +4.94%. In 2014, the BKX is down -1.69%, compared to the SPX's -1.77% loss. In 2013, the BKX rose +35.1%, better than the SPX's +29.6% rise.

    The BKX is now +15.0% better than the June 24th 59.19 close, its worst since May 13, 2013. The index crossed above 50 on December 17, 2012, 60 on May 15, 2013, and 70 on January 8, 2014, but then dropped back below 70 on January 24th, which persisted until March 6th. The BKX closed +109.1% above the 32.56 intraday low on October 4, 2011, the bottom of that year's correction. Large-cap bank stocks have outperformed the broader market's rebound, with the SPX up +68.9% in the same period.

    The BKX index closed -43.8% below its February 20, 2007, record 121.06 high. The BKX is up +265.7% from its 18.62 March 6, 2009, closing low.

    Technical indicators were little changed. The index closed -4.70%, -2.39%, and -1.50% below its respective 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages, but +2.10% above its 200-day moving averages. The 20-day moving average fell -7 bps to 71.454. The 69.76 50-day moving average was unchanged. Its 100-day moving average rose +2 bps to 69.12, and the 200-day moving average rose +4 bps to 66.69. The 20-day closed (by +1.69 points) above the 50-day, but the gap narrowed -7 bps. The 50-day moving average closed (by +3.07 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap narrowed -4 bps. The 100-day moving average closed (by +2.44 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap narrowed -2 bps.

    The directional movement indicator worsened to -17.939, compared to -14.693 the prior day, its 5th consecutive negative reading. Relative strength fell to 33.81, compared to 37.06 the prior day, in a neutral range, up from the recent 32.95 low on February 3rd, but down from an overbought 75.56 and 71.88 on January 9th and 10th, respectively. The recent low RSI level 31.08 on November 14, 2012, which is also the date of the BKX's 2012 closing low. Next resistance is 68.88; next support is 67.34.

    SPX, DJI, RTY, TRAN, CCMP, NYA, VIX, SKEW, NKY, EURUSD, USGG10YR, HSI, SHCOMP, SX5E, CAC, DAX, FTSE, JPY, GBP, EUR

    Themes: SPX, DJI, RTY, TRAN, CCMP, NYA, VIX, SKEW, NKY, EURUSD, USGG10YR, HSI, SHCOMP, SX5E, CAC, DAX, FTSE, JPY, GBP, EUR Stocks: C, MTB
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