This morning. U.S. equity futures are moderately higher and near their pre-session highs. In Asia, equity markets distributed, with particular weakness in Japan, following disappointing Chinese economic reports. In Europe, equities indexes sold off early, but have improved to mixed, with somewhat greater strength in Germany. The dollar is weaker. Treasury 10-year yields are modestly higher, but the worldwide sovereign bond market rally continues. Commodities are mixed. Thursday's Nikkei 225 June 2014 (NKM4) equity futures are modestly higher.
On April 4th, the U.S. equity markets distributed, and the market outlook worsened to "in correction", ending a brief "confirmed uptrend" that began on April 1st. The SPX opens -1.23% below the April 2nd record 1890.90 close.
Trading desks note the distress in today's Asia equity markets, while European markets are mostly modestly higher on earnings and reports of Russia's willingness to negotiate on Ukrainian developments. European stocks are generally at their highs. Tuesday's trade was most notable in that "momentum" sectors internet and biotech were again for sale. Financials were the day's weakest sector. The weeks-old 1840-1890 trading range continues to hold. Conviction remains low as 10-year bond strength continues to weigh on equity prices. Sentiment remains poor, and advances are regarded skeptically as indexes remain near the top of recent trading ranges. Breaks above SPX 1890 appear likely to be sold.
U.S. economic reporting focuses on the latest week's mortgage applications (higher) and non-farm productivity and unit labor costs, which disappointed. Fed Chairman Yellen testifies before the Joint Economic Committee at 10:00. The ECB meets this week, though no new actions are expected.
Tuesday, on lower and below average volume, U.S. major equity indexes gapped lower and generally trended lower through the session, with greater weakness late in the afternoon. The S&P 500 (SPX), DJ Industrials (Private:DJI), Nasdaq, and NYSE composite fell -0.90%, -0.78%, -1.38%, and -0.58%, respectively.
The DJ Transports (TRAN) fell -0.25%, and closed -1.11% below its recent April 23rd record high.
NYSE volume rose +14.9% to 0.96x its 20-day moving average. The SPX and NYSE composite are now +1.05% and +1.62% higher in 2014, while the DJI and Nasdaq are down -1.06% and -2.29%, respectively.
Other notable indexes closed lower. The Russell 2000 (RTY) fell -1.62%, while the Nasdaq Internet (QNET) and Nasdaq Biotech (NBI) fell -2.73% and -1.66%, respectively. The QNET and NBI are in correction, down -17.8% and -16.1%, respectively, from recent highs.
The 1Q2014 earnings reports began on March 15th, with 421 of 500 SPX companies having now reported, with respective +6.17% EPS, but -0.05% revenue surprises.
Price earnings multiples are elevated. With SPX equities trading at a 17.0 (compared to 17.1 the prior day) 2013 earnings multiple, attention focuses on 2014 earnings and valuations (17.0x times survey $117.83 2014 SPX operating earnings suggests a 1997.94 SPX level this year, a +6.97% rise).
Technicals continued to worsen overall. Most SPX market segments closed lower. Market breadth was negative, and up volume lagged down volume. Volatility rose. Treasury bond markets strengthened. On the day, the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond yield fell -1.52 bps to 2.5914%, compared to 2.6068% at the prior close.
This morning, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are up +1.63 bps at 2.6077%, compared to the prior close. World sovereign bond markets continue to rally, too. Notably, Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields are at their lowest levels since 2005, at 2.96% and 3.02%, respectively.
U.S. options markets are bearish to bullish, compared to neutral to bullish the prior day. The CBOE SKEW remains above a neutral range.
In pre-market futures trading, June SPX equity futures (SPM4) price near the top of a 1861-1869 trading range. After a fair value adjustment of -2.58 points, the SPM4 future prices at 1868.00, up +6.33 points. The SPX opens +0.17% and +0.19% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +1.52% and +4.99% above its 200-day moving averages. Initial resistance is 1878.37. Initial support is 1862.40, then 1857.07.
In Asia, equity markets reopened in Japan and Hong Kong, but sold off hard. The Nikkei 225 (NYSEARCA:NKY) closed down -2.93% and is in correction, with its 50-day moving average below its 200-day moving average and its 200-day moving average now below its 100-day moving average. The Hang Sang index (HSI) closed down -1.05%. The Shanghai composite (SHCOMP) fell -0.89%. Both HSI and SHCOMP 50-day moving averages are also below their respective 200-day moving averages. Today's volumes are unavailable.
Commentary focused on this week's weak Chinese manufacturing PMI report and currency and commodity price developments.
This week, the NKY, HSI, and SHCOMP are down -2.93%, -2.31%, and -0.80%, respectively. Last week, the NKY rose +0.20%. The HSI closed up +0.17%, and the SHCOMP closed off -0.50%. In May, the NKY is down -1.89%, the HSI is down -2.31%, and the SHCOMP is down -0.80%. In April, the NKY closed down -3.53%, while the HSI and SHCOMP closed down -0.08% and -0.34%, respectively.
In 2014, the NKY and HSI are down -13.9% and -6.69%, respectively, while the SHCOMP is down -5.00%. In 2013, the NKY rose +56.7%. The HSI closed up +2.87%. The SHCOMP closed down -6.75%.
In China, short-term interbank lending rates remain volatile, as the SHIBO 7-day rate rose +2.00 bps to 3.11%, compared to 3.09% Tuesday, up from a 2.26% low on March 11th, but down from the February 7th 5.41% recent high.
Regional relative strength indexes (RSI) show Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Shanghai in the lower end of neutral ranges. The NKY RSI ended at 39.01, compared to 49.40 the prior day, up from an oversold 27.92 on February 4th, the most recent prior yearly low. The HSI RSI fell to 38.00, compared to 41.62 the prior day. The SHCOMP's RSI fell to 37.32, compared to 41.37 the prior session. On June 27, 2013, the index's RSI fell to a low of 15.27, which was also last year's low index close.
In Japan, the NKY closed at 14,033.45, compared to 14,457.51 the prior day, -13.9% below its recent year-end 16,291.31 high and -64.0% below its late-1989 38,915.87 high close. The index gapped lower to open at the 14,299.13 intraday high and trended lower through the session to end at the intraday low. The index closed -2.58% and -3.98% below its 20- and 50-day moving averages, and -6.32% and -4.31% below its respective 100- and 200-day moving averages. All market segments closed at least -0.39% lower. Leaders were utilities, technology, and consumer goods. Financials fell -2.67%. Laggards were oil and gas, industrials, and telecommunications, which fell at least -3.06%.
In China, the HSI closed at 21,746.26, compared to 22,260.67 at the prior close. The index gapped lower, set an early 21,976.33 intraday high, then fell quickly to 21,800 and trended lower to a mid-afternoon 21,680.3 intraday low. The index improved slightly through the final two hours, harrowing the session's loss. Most market segments closed lower. Leaders were telecommunications, which rose +0.34%, and utilities and consumer goods, which fell at least -0.06%. Financials fell -0.83%. Laggards were basic materials, consumer services, and technology, which fell at least -1.19%. The index closed -9.05% below its recent December 3rd 23,910.47 high, but +19.6% above its 18,185.59 June 4, 2012 low.
In Shanghai, the SHCOMP closed at 2,010.08, compared to 2,028.04 at the prior close, +3.08% above the 1,950.01 June 27, 2013 close, last year's low. The index opened lower, but traded narrowly around 2,020 through mid-afternoon, then fell through the final two hours to a late 2,008.87 intraday low. All market segments closed at least -0.36% lower. Leaders were financials, telecommunications, and oil and gas. Laggards were health care, consumer goods, and technology, which fell at least -1.55%.
In Europe, equities reversed early modest gain and are now moderately lower and near intraday lows. The Euro Stoxx50, CAC 40, and DAX are down -0.081%, -0.50%, -0.79%, and -0.82%, respectively. The Spanish IBEX 35 is down -0.37%. The Italian FTSE MIB down -0.50%.
Economic reporting focuses on Asian weakness, and China's HSBC services and composite PMI reports.
European bourses have recently outperformed U.S. equity indexes. Intraday Euro Stoxx50 relative strength (RSI) is 49.93, compared to 48.25 at the prior close, in the middle of a neutral (30-70) range, but better than its recent February 5th 33.57 low, which coincided with its 2014 low. The indexes lowest recent RSI level was 25.77 on June 24th, which marked the 2013 2,494.54 closing low.
The Euro Stoxx50 trades -2.18% below its 3,230.33 April 4th post-2008 high close, and -39.8% below its 5,249.55 March 31, 2000, all-time closing high. From its prior day 3,149.79 close, the index gapped lower in early trading to the 3,129.08 intraday low, but rallied and reversed higher in early afternoon. The index rose to an early afternoon 3,167.01, but currently trades at 3,159.87. Most market segments are higher. Leaders are oil and gas, utilities, and consumer services, which are up +0.61%. Laggards are financials, which are up +0.11%, and consumer goods and telecommunications, which are down at least -0.25%.
This week, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are down -0.57%, -0.48%, -0.39%, and -0.37%, respectively. Last week, the Euro Stoxx50 and FTSE 100, closed up +0.97% and +0.43%, respectively, while the CAC 40 and DAX closed down -0.65% and -0.49%. In May, the FTSE 100 is up +0.14%, compared to the Euro Stoxx50, CAC 40, and DAX, which are down -1.20%, -1.04%, and -0.86%, respectively. In April, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed up +1.16%, +2.75%, +2.18%, and +0.50%, respectively.
In 2014, the indexes are mixed. The Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, and CAC 40, are up +1.64%, +0.60%, and +3.37%, respectively, while the DAX is down -0.33%. In 2013, the indexes closed up +18.0%, +14.4%, +18.0%, and +25.5%, respectively.
1Q2014 SPX Earnings. Of 416 (of 500) reporting companies, 312 or 75.2% surprised positively on earnings, with an average +6.11% surprise average. Of reporting companies, 214 or 51.9% reported sales or revenues above estimates. The average sales/revenue surprise is -0.06%. Energy leads with respective +9.36% and -2.47% earnings and revenue surprises. Financials have a respective +5.71% and +0.21% earnings and revenue surprises. Consumer staples lags with respective +0.27% and -0.58% earnings and revenue surprises.
Valuation. The SPX trades at 17.0x estimated 2013 earnings ($110.15), 15.9x estimated 2014 earnings ($117.83), 14.3x estimated 2015 earnings ($131.04), and 12.8x estimated 2016 earnings ($145.62). The 10-year average median price/earnings multiple is 15.9x. Analysts expect 2014, 2015, and 2016 earnings to grow +6.97%, +11.2%, and 11.1%, respectively.
The KBW Bank Index (BKX) trades at 13.0x 2013 adjusted EPS ($5.16), 12.5x estimated 2014 earnings ($5.37), 11.1x estimated 2015 earnings ($6.02), and 10.0x 2016 earnings ($6.72). Analysts expect 2014, 2015, 2016 EPS will grow +4.07%, +12.1%, and +11.6%, respectively.
Composite, index, and equity options. Options markets worsened to bearish to bullish, compared to neutral to bullish the prior session. Composite options are neutral, index options are bullish, and equity options are bearish. The composite put/call ratio is 0.90, compared to 0.86 the prior day, and worse than 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.86 and 0.90, respectively. The index put/call ratio is 0.71, compared to 0.96 the prior day, and better than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.83 and 0.97, respectively. The equity put/call ratio closed the day at 0.98, compared to 0.83 the prior day, and worse than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.87 and 0.89, respectively.
NYSE Volume, Breadth Indicators. Volume rose +14.9% to 699.66 million shares, compared to 608.75 million shares the prior day, 0.96x the 725.23 million share 20-day moving average. Market breadth was negative, and up volume lagged down volume. Advancing stocks lagged by -1,124 (compared to -36 the prior day) or 0.46:1. Up volume was 0.32:1 down volume.
"In Correction" Market Outlook and Distribution Day Count. On April 4th, the U.S. equity markets distributed, and the market outlook worsened to "in correction", ending a brief "confirmed uptrend" that began on April 1st. The SPX opened April 3rd at a record 1890.90, up +0.99% from the April 1st 1872.34 open. Today, the SPX opens -1.23% below the April 2nd record close.
Libor, LOIS, Currencies, Treasuries, Commodities:
· USD LIBOR is 0.08910%, compared to 0.09050% the prior day. USD 3-month LIBOR is 0.22395%, down from 0.22485% the prior day, and compares to the January 4, 2013, recent peak of 0.58250%.
· The US LIBOR-OIS (LOIS) spread is 13.395 bps, compared to 12.985 bps the prior day, and compares to the recent June 12, 2012, 46.785 bps high. Euribor-OIS is 16.000 bps, compared to 16.700 bps the prior day, and down from the December 27, 2011, high of 98.800 bps. Moves in the LOIS indicate changes in intra-bank lending risk premiums.
· The 3-month Euro basis swap is -3.343 bps, compared to -2.723 bps the prior day, up from a trough of -147.00 bps on December 14, 2011, but far better than a normal -10 bps and -40 bps range.
· German 10-year debt yields are 1.44%, compared to 1.46% the prior day.
· Japanese 10-year debt yields are 0.60%, compared to 0.61% the prior day.
· Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields are at their best levels since 2005. Spanish 10-year debt yields are 2.95%, compared to 2.95% the prior day. Italian 10-year debt yields are at 3.00%, compared to 3.00% the prior day. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt years peaked at 7.621% and 7.261% in July 2012 and November 2011, respectively.
· U.S. Treasury yields are slightly lower, with 2- and 10-year maturities yielding 0.415% and 2.586%, respectively, compared to 0.423% and 2.591% Tuesday. The yield curve widened +0.250 bps, with the 2- to 10-year spread at +2.171%, compared to 2.169% the prior day. In the past year, the 2- and 10-year spread varied from a low of +1.429% on May 1, 2013, to a high of +2.648% on December 31, 2013.
· The U.S. dollar is mixed, weaker compared to the Euro and Japanese yen, but stronger compared to the British pound. The dollar trades at US$79.120, compared to a US$79.182 intraday high and US$79.093 the prior day, and worse compared to its $79.815 50-day, US$80.216 100-day, and US$80.487 200-day averages. The euro trades at US$1.3928, compared to a US$1.3935 intraday high and US$1.3928 the prior day. The euro trades better compared to its US$1.3823 50-day and US$1.3737 100-day averages, and compares to a multi-year low of US$1.1877 on June 7, 2010. In Japan, the dollar trades at ¥101.61, compared to ¥101.68 the prior day. The yen trades better than its 50-day moving average ¥102.37, and better than its January 1st 105.31 closing low, its weakest prior multi-year closing low.
· Citigroup Economic Surprise Index improved to -12.00, compared to -12.60 the prior day, better than its recent -45.90 worst on April 7th, but continuing its string of consecutive negative readings since February 18th. The index is better compared to its respective -20.94 5-day and -22.69 10-day moving averages. Last year, on June 10th, the index fell to a then 52-week low of -33.26. The index improved and turned positive on July 30th and rose to 53.30 on October 1st, but subsequently fell on dollar weakness to -2.10 on October 31st. It subsequently strengthened to a +72.70 high on January 15th, but then subsequently trended lower and turned negative on February 19th and fell to a -45.90 124-week low on April 7th . After a lag, the CESIUSD correlates with EPS revisions.
· Commodities prices are mixed, with mixed energy, higher precious metals, mixed aluminum and copper, and mostly lower agriculture prices.
· The CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX) rose +3.84% to 13.80, compared to 13.29 at the prior close. The VIX is -2.24% below the 14.12 20-day moving average. Its 30-day high is 17.85. Its 30-day low is 12.60. The index's all-time closing low is 9.31 on December 22, 1993. The long-term average is 20.14.
· The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index (V2X) is 18.18, down -1.79% compared to 18.51 at the prior day's close. The V2X index trades +3.00% above its 17.65 20-day moving average, -11.0% below the 20.43 30-day high, and +17.3% above the 15.50 30-day low.
· The Hang Seng volatility index (VHSI) closed Friday at 15.96, up +2.64% compared to 15.55 at the prior close. The VHSI index trades +5.82% above its 15.08 20-day moving average. Its lowest historical close was 11.72, on June 30, 2005.
· CBOE SKEW (SKEW) fell -1.93% to 121.18, compared to 123.56 the prior session, above a neutral reading (115-120), but below 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops. The recent record high was 143.20 on December 20th. Its recent low was 112.47 on May 25, 2013. Spikes in excess of 130 correlate well with short-term market tops, though not in October or November. The index rarely falls below 110, last on July 31, 2009. The index correlates with market tail risks, the cost of buying out-of-the-money, long-dated options, i.e., options not affected by expirations. A rise suggests that investors are buying more puts than calls, a bearish signal.
U.S. Economic Reporting and News:
- The latest week's MBA mortgage applications rose +5.3%, compared to -5.9% prior.
- At 8:30, 1Q2014 preliminary nonfarm productivity fell -1.7%, compared to -1.2% survey and +2.3% revised prior.
- 1Q2014 preliminary labor costs soared +4.2%, compared to +2.8% survey and -0.4% revised prior.
- At 3:00, March consumer credit, with $15.5 billion survey and $16.5 billion prior.
Overseas Economic Reporting and News:
- China - April HSBC services PMI was 51.4, compared to 51.9 prior. HSBC composite PMI was 49.5, compared to 49.3 prior.
- Eurozone - April Markit retail PMI was 51.2, compared to 49.2 and prior.
- France - March MoM industrial production fell -0.7%, compared to +0.3% survey and +0.1% prior. MoM manufacturing production fell -0.7%, compared to +0.1% survey and +0.3% prior.
- Germany - March MoM factory orders fell -2.8%, compared to +0.3% survey and +0.9% revised prior. April Markit construction PMI was 49.7, compared to 52.5 prior. Markit retail PMI was 53.1, compared to 50.2 survey and prior.
- Italy - April Markit retail PMI was 49.5, compared to 46.5 prior.
Tuesday's Trade. On greater, but below average NYSE volume, major U.S. equity indexes opened lower and generally trended lower to late session intraday lows. The SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite fell -0.90%, -0.78%, -1.38%, and -.58%, respectively. The SPX and NYSE composite remain higher in 2014. Market breadth was negative, with gainers 0.46x losing stocks. Most SPX market segments closed lower. Leaders were oil and gas, which rose +0.17%, and telecommunications and basic materials, which fell at least -0.29%. Laggards were technology, consumer services, and financials, which fell at least -1.18%.
Other notable indexes also distributed. The Russell 2000 (RTY) fell -1.62%, and closed -8.83% below its March 4th record close. The Nasdaq Internet Index (QNET) fell -2.73% and is in correction at -17.8% below its March 6th closing high. The Nasdaq Biotech Index (NBI) fell -1.66% and is in correction, down -16.1% from its recent February 25th record high.
On April 4th, the U.S. equity markets distributed, and the market outlook worsened to "in correction", ending a brief "confirmed uptrend" that began on April 1st. Today, the SPX opens -1.23% below the April 2nd record 1890.90 close.
NYSE volume fell -13.1% to 608.75 million shares, compared to 700.64 million shares the prior day, 0.83x the 732.04 million share 20-day moving average volume. On the day, bond markets weakened. The U.S. 10-year yield opened at the 2.5843%, and traded narrowly until the 9:45 U.S. PMI reports, when yields spiked higher to the 2.6114% intraday high. Yields moved narrowly to the close. The yield ended at 2.6068%, up +2.25 bps compared to the 2.5843% prior close.
From its prior day 1884.66 SPX close, June 2014 SPX futures (SPM4) suggested a moderately lower open. The index gapped lower and opened at 1880, traded narrowly at that lever through mid-morning, then eased to 1876 by mid-afternoon. The index weakened to 1870 by 2:00, then eased further in the final hour to close at the 1867.72 intraday low. The index closed +73.8% above the 1074.77 October 4, 2011, intraday low, the bottom of the most recent correction.
The DJ Transportation index (TRAN) fell -0.25%, compared to the DJI's -0.78% loss. From its prior 7,675.88 close, the TRAN fell to an early 7,641.24 intraday low, but reversed higher by mid-morning, when it set its 7,698.43 intraday high. The index reversed lower again in mid-afternoon and retested support at 7,645 before improving to the close. The index closed at 7,656.51. Volume rose +1.08% to 10.826 million shares, 10.710 million shares, compared to 10.710 million shares the prior session, and 0.80x the 15-day moving average volume. The TRAN closed +0.72% and +1.52% above its 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +3.30% and +8.27% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving averages.
Market volatility rose +3.84%, as the CBOE SPX volatility index (VIX) closed at 13.80, compared to 13.29 at the prior close. In early trading, the VIX gapped higher to open above 13.60, but eased to 13.28 in early afternoon. The index rose as markets weakened through the afternoon, finding late resistance at 13.90. The VIX's all-time closing low is 9.31, on December 22, 1993. Its record high is 89.53 in December 2008. Its lifetime average is 20.01. The CBOE put/call SKEW rose to 124.13, compared to 123.44 the prior session, above a neutral 115-120 range, but below 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops.
The market's technical factors were little changed. The SPX relative strength (RSI) fell to 50.02, compared to 57.38 the prior day, in the middle of a neutral range, but better than an oversold 31.24 on February 3rd. The RSI is also down from an overbought 71.26 on December 31st, when the SPX closed at an earlier record high, but above earlier oversold levels of 35.14 on August 27th and 39.19 on October 9th. This week, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +0.23%, +0.24%, +0.13%, and +0.61%, respectively. Last week, the SPX DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +0.95%, +0.93%, +1.19%, and +1.19%, respectively. In May, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are down -0.86%, -1.08%, -0.82%, and -0.55%, respectively. In April, the SPX, DJI, and NYSE composite closed up +0.62%, +0.75%, and +0.94%, respectively, while the Nasdaq closed off -2.01%.
In 2014, the SPX and NYSE composite are up +1.05% and +1.62%, respectively, while the DJI and Nasdaq are down -1.06% and -2.29%, respectively. In 2013, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +29.6%, +26.5%, +38.2%, +23.2%, respectively. All closed at least +5.91% higher in 2012.
KBW Bank Index (BKX). On greater, but below average volume, the BKX fell -1.48% to 67.13, compared to 68.14 at the prior day's close, its 19th consecutive close below 70.0, -7.93% below its 72.91 March 20th post-2008 closing high, and its worst close since 66.11 on February 5th. In early trading, the index moved below 68.00, and trended lower through the session to a late 67.12 intraday low. Volume rose +1.28% to 48.271 million shares, compared to 37.842 million shares the prior day, and 0.93x the 52.072 million share 15-day moving average.
Large cap banks underperformed the regional banks, as the KBW regional banking index (KRX) fell -1.47%.
This week, the BKX is down -2.07%, compared to last week, when the BKX closed unchanged. In May, the BKX is down -1.90%, compared to April, when the BKX closed off -5.34%. In 2014, the BKX is down -3.08%, compared to the SPX's +1.05% gain. In 2013, the BKX rose +35.1%, better than the SPX's +29.6% rise.
The BKX is now +13.4% better than the June 24, 2013 59.19 close, its worst since May 13, 2013. The index crossed above 50 on December 17, 2012, 60 on May 15, 2013, and 70 on January 8, 2014, but then dropped back below 70 on January 24th, which persisted until March 6th. On April 10th, the BKX fell below 70.00 and then eased consistently to yesterday's 67.13 closing low, its lowest close since early February. The BKX closed +106.2% above the 32.56 intraday low on October 4, 2011, the bottom of that year's correction. Large-cap bank stocks have outperformed the broader market's rebound, with the SPX up +73.8% in the same period.
The BKX index closed -44.6% below its February 20, 2007, record 121.06 high. The BKX is up +260.5% from its 18.62 March 6, 2009, closing low, its low during the 2008-09 financial panic.
Technical indicators worsened. The index's 20-day moving average moved below its 100-day moving average and remains below its 50-day moving average. The index closed -2.51% and -4.21% below its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, but -3.20% below and +0.08% above its 100- and 200-day moving average. The 20-day moving average fell -17 bps to 68.86. The 70.08 50-day moving average fell -4 bps. Its 100-day moving average fell -1 bp to 69.35, and the 200-day moving average rose +1 bp to 67.08. The 20-day closed (by -1.22 points) below the 50-day, and the negative gap widened -14 bps. The 50-day moving average closed (by +3.00 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap narrowed -4 bps. The 100-day moving average closed (by +2.27 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap narrowed -1 bp.
The directional movement indicator worsened to -16.311, compared to -13.444 the prior day, its 21st consecutive negative reading. Relative strength fell to 34.96, compared to 40.53 the prior day, in the lower end of a neutral range, up from the recent 32.95 low on February 3rd, but down from an overbought 75.56 and 71.88 on January 9th and 10th, respectively. The recent low RSI level was 31.08 on November 14, 2012, which is also the date of the BKX's 2012 closing low. Next resistance is 67.74; next support is 66.82.
SPX, DJI, RTY, TRAN, CCMP, NYA, VIX, SKEW, NKY, EURUSD, USGG10YR, HSI, SHCOMP, SX5E, CAC, DAX, FTSE, JPY, GBP, EUR