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  • U.S. Futures Rise; Asia Reverses Positively; Europe Off Moderately 0 comments
    Jun 13, 2014 9:08 AM

    This morning. U.S. equity futures are modestly higher. The market outlook is "confirmed uptrend". In Asia, equity markets closed higher after positive reversals from moderate opening losses. In early afternoon, European bourses are moderately lower and near their intraday lows. The euro is slightly weaker. U.S. Treasury 10-year yields are higher at 2.6313%. Commodities are mixed. Iraq is relatively unchanged overnight. Monday's Nikkei 225 June 2014 (NKM4) equity futures are moderately lower.

    Thursday, on greater but below average volume, major U.S. indexes distributed, their first since the market outlook improved to "confirmed uptrend" on May 27th. All major indexes closed lower. The S&P 500 index (SPX), DJ Industrial index (Private:DJI), Nasdaq, and NYSE composite fell -0.71%, -0.65%, -0.79%, and -0.44%, respectively. This week, all are at least -0.55% lower, but in June, indexes are up least +0.10%. In 2014, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are +4.42%, +0.95%, +2.90%, and +4.08% higher in 2014, respectively. NYSE volume rose +16.9% to 0.98x its 20-day moving average.

    Other notable indexes also closed lower. The DJ Transports (TRAN) fell -1.95%. The Russell 2000 (RTY) fell -0.65% to close -4.07% below early March highs. The Nasdaq Internet (QNET) index fell -0.99%, and the Nasdaq Biotech (NBI) index fell -0.45%. The QNET is in correction, down -11.5%, while the NBI closed -9.33% from its recent high.

    Trading desks report busy overnight markets with BOE Mark Carney's comments that housing debt may threaten the country's economy and that interest rates may rise earlier than expected. His comments are seen as increasing the focus on next week's FOMC meeting. The BOJ policy announcement was in-line with expectations. Iraq was relatively quiet compared to the prior two days (no new cities fell), as ISIS consolidates its recent military gains. Regarding yesterday's distributions, weaker than expected retails sales lowered 1Q2014 GDP revision expectations and thereby lowered growth expectations in 2Q2014 and 2014. Correction calls remain muted.

    Today's economic reporting focuses on May U.S. PPI and June preliminary University of Michigan confidence after the market open. Relative strength indicators have fallen back within a neutral range.

    The 1Q2014 earnings reports began on March 15th, and 499 of 500 SPX companies have now reported, with respective +5.91% EPS and +0.20% revenue surprises. Forward estimates are moving up. Compared to February 28th, the May-end 2014 EPS estimate rose +0.39% to $118.20, from $117.74. Respective estimates for 2015 and 2016 are now $131.08 and $145.36, compared to $130.81 and $144.98 at February-end, respective increases of +0.45% and +0.55%.

    Price earnings multiples fell, but remain elevated. With SPX equities trading at a 17.5x (compared to 17.7x the prior day) 2013 earnings multiple, attention focuses on 2014 earnings and valuations (17.5x times survey $118.19 2014 SPX operating earnings suggests a 2071.00 SPX level in the next year, a +7.30% rise from yesterday's close).

    Technicals were little changed. Led by consumer services, most SPX market segments declined. Market breadth was negative, and up volume lagged down volume. Volatility rose, but remains near the lower end of historical ranges. Treasury bond markets weakened. On the day, the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond yield fell -4.43 bps to 2.5951%, compared to 2.6394% at the prior close.

    This morning, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are up +0.37 bps at 2.5988%, compared to 2.6494% at the prior close. World sovereign bond markets are modestly stronger. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields are 2.68% and +2.80%, respectively, compared to 2.70% and +2.82% the prior day.

    U.S. options markets were unchanged at neutral to bullish, compared to neutral to bullish the prior day. The CBOE SKEW rose, and remains above a neutral range, though below 130.

    In pre-market futures trading, June SPX equity futures (SPM4) price near the middle of a 1919-1927 trading range. After a fair value adjustment of -1.99 points, the SPM4 future prices at 1924.75, up +3.99 points. The SPX opens +0.80% and +2.24% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +3.68% and +6.73% above its 200-day moving averages. Initial resistance is 1940.38. Initial support is 1922.81, then 1915.51.

    "Confirmed Uptrend" Market Outlook and Distribution Day Count. Major indexes distributed, their first since May 27th, when based on the Nasdaq follow-through and the SPX record close, the market outlook improved to "confirmed uptrend", ending a period of market "in correction" that began on April 4th. The SPX closed June 9th at a record 1951.27, +7.47% above the 1815.69 close on April 11th, the low close. On March 5, 2014, the Nasdaq peaked at a multi-year 4,357.97 high (compared to its 4,572.83 March 31, 2000 record close), then fell -8.22% to 3,999.73 before recovering +8.46% to the June 10th 4,338.00 close.

    In Asia, equity markets reversed early losses and closed moderately higher, despite yesterday's U.S. equity weakness. The Nikkei 225 (NYSEARCA:NKY) rose +0.83%. The Hang Seng (HSI) Index rose +0.62%, and the Shanghai SE (SHCOMP) rose +0.93%. The NKY, HSI, and SHCOMP 50-day moving averages are below their respective 200-day moving averages. Today's volumes are unavailable.

    Asian economic commentary focused on Chinese industrial production reports.

    This week, the NKY is up +0.14%, the HSI is up +1.60%, and the SHCOMP is up +2.01%, respectively. Last week, the NKY closed up +3.04%, while the HSI lost -0.57% and the SHCOMP -0.45%. In June, the NKY is up +3.18%, the HSI is up +1.03%, and the SHCOMP is up +1.54%. In May, the NKY closed up +2.29%, the HSI rose +4.28%, and the SHCOMP rose +0.63%.

    In 2014, the NKY is down -7.33%, while the HSI is up +0.05%. The SHCOMP is down -2.14%. In 2013, the NKY rose +56.7%. The HSI closed up +2.87%. The SHCOMP closed down -6.75%.

    In China, short-term interbank lending rates remain volatile, as the SHIBO 7-day rate fell -14 bps to 3.02%, compared to 3.16% the prior day, up from a 2.26% low on March 11th, but down from the February 7th 5.41% recent high.

    Regional relative strength indexes (RSI) show Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Shanghai in neutral ranges. The NKY RSI ended at 63.77, compared to 60.15 the prior day, up from an oversold 27.92 on February 4th, the most recent prior yearly low. The HSI RSI rose to 62.51, compared to 59.02 the prior day. The SHCOMP's RSI rose to 60.51, compared to 54.61 the prior session. On June 27, 2013, the index's RSI fell to a low of 15.27, which was also last year's low index close.

    In Japan, the NKY closed at 15,097.84, compared to 14,973.53 the prior day, -7.33% below its recent year-end 16,291.31 high and -61.2% below its late-1989 38,915.87 high close. The index gapped lower to open at the 14,830.99 intraday low, but improved and reversed higher in early afternoon, rallying to a late 15,121.64 intraday high. All market segments closed at least +0.35% higher. Leaders were telecommunications, health care, and oil and gas, which rose at least +1.20%. Financials rose +0.70%. Laggards were utilities, consumer goods, and basic materials.

    In China, the HSI closed at 23,319.17, compared to 23,175.02 at the prior close. The index opened at its 23,099.87 intraday low, but quickly reversed higher and rallied to an early afternoon 23,397.77 intraday high. The index eased slightly to the close. Most market segments closed higher. Leaders were oil and gas, industrials, and financials, which rose at least +0.65%. Laggards were consumer services and telecommunications, which rose at least +0.18%, and consumer goods, which fell -0.43%. The index closed -2.47% below its recent December 3rd 23,910.47 high, but +27.4% above its 18,185.59 June 4, 2012 low.

    In Shanghai, the SHCOMP closed at 2,070.72, compared to 2,051.71 at the prior close, +6.19% above the 1,950.01 June 27, 2013 close, last year's low. The index also opened lower and set an early 2,048.76 intraday low, but reversed higher in early trading and rose to an early afternoon 2,073.45 intraday high. The index traded narrowly to the close. All market segments closed at least +0.05% higher. Leaders were financials, consumer goods, and industrials, which rose at least +0.83%. Laggards were health care, telecommunications, and utilities.

    In Europe, equities opened modestly lower, but have trended lower through the morning session to early afternoon intraday low. The Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are down -0.68%, -1.16%, -0.83%, and -0.86%, respectively. The Spanish IBEX 35 is down -0.38%. The Italian FTSE MIB is down -0.64%.

    Economic reporting is light. The euro is weaker compared to the dollar.

    European bourses have recently outperformed U.S. equity indexes. Intraday Euro Stoxx50 relative strength (RSI) is 56.09, compared to 62.84 at the prior close, in a neutral (30-70) range, better than its recent February 5th 33.57 low, which coincided with its 2014 low. The indexes lowest recent RSI level was 25.77 on June 24th, which marked the 2013 2,494.54 closing low.

    The Euro Stoxx50 trades -37.9% below its 5,249.55 March 31, 2000, all-time closing high. From its prior day 3,284.28 close, the index trended lower through the morning session to an early afternoon 3,254.53 intraday low. The index currently trades at 3,262.51. Most market segments are lower. Leaders are oil and gas, telecommunications, and utilitieis, which are up at least +0.19%. Laggards are financials, industrials, and basic materials, which are down at least -1.04%.

    This week, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are down -0.96%, -1.22%, -1.34%, and -1.35%, respectively. Last week, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed up +1.53%, +0.20%, +1.36%, and +0.44%, respectively. In June, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +0.96%, -1.22%, -1.34%, and -1.35%, respectively. In May, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed up +1.44%, +0.95%, +0.72%, +3.54%, respectively.

    In 2014, the indexes are higher. The Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +4.94%, +0.37%, +5.20%, and +3.14%, respectively. In 2013, the indexes closed up +18.0%, +14.4%, +18.0%, and +25.5%, respectively.

    1Q2014 SPX Earnings. Of 499 (of 500) reporting companies, 370 or 74.5% surprised positively on earnings, with an average +5.91% surprise average. Of reporting companies, 263 or 53.0% reported sales or revenues above estimates. The average sales/revenue surprise is +0.20%. Energy leads with respective +10.0% and -1.01% earnings and revenue surprises. Financials have a respective +5.67% and +0.26% earnings and revenue surprises. Consumer staples lags with respective +0.34% and -0.66% earnings and revenue surprises.

    Valuation. The SPX trades at 17.5x estimated 2013 earnings ($110.15), 16.3x estimated 2014 earnings ($118.19), 14.7x estimated 2015 earnings ($131.40), and 13.4x estimated 2016 earnings ($145.77). The 10-year average median price/earnings multiple is 15.9x. Analysts expect 2014, 2015, and 2016 earnings to grow +7.30%, +11.2%, and 10.9%, respectively.

    The KBW Bank Index (BKX) trades at 13.7x 2013 adjusted EPS ($5.16), 13.2x estimated 2014 earnings ($5.34), 11.8x estimated 2015 earnings ($5.99), and 10.6x 2016 earnings ($6.67). Analysts expect 2014, 2015, 2016 EPS will grow +3.56%, +12.1%, and +11.4%, respectively.

    Composite, index, and equity options. Options markets are unchanged at neutral to bullish, compared to neutral to bullish the prior session. Composite options are bullish, index options are bullish, and equity options are neutral. The composite put/call ratio is 0.79, compared to 0.74 the prior day, and better than 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.80 and 0.80, respectively. The index put/call ratio is 0.79, compared to 0.81 the prior day, and better than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.84 and 0.94, respectively. The equity put/call ratio closed the day at 0.80, compared to 0.70 the prior day, and worse than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.75 and 0.75, respectively.

    NYSE Volume, Breadth Indicators. Volume fell -4.59% to 531.56 million shares, compared to 557.12 million shares the prior day, 0.84x the 630.80 million share 20-day moving average. Market breadth was negative, and up volume lagged down volume. Advancing stocks lagged by -849 (compared to -458 the prior day) or 0.56:1. Up volume was 0.56:1 down volume.

    Libor, LOIS, Currencies, Treasuries, Commodities:

    · USD LIBOR is 0.09220%, compared to 0.09190% the prior day. USD 3-month LIBOR is 0.23210%, down from 0.23060% the prior day, and compares to the January 4, 2013, recent peak of 0.58250%.

    · The US LIBOR-OIS (LOIS) spread is 12.860 bps, compared to 13.180 bps the prior day, and compares to the recent June 12, 2012, 46.785 bps high. Euribor-OIS is 19.100 bps, compared to 20.000 bps the prior day, and down from the December 27, 2011, high of 98.800 bps. Moves in the LOIS indicate changes in intra-bank lending risk premiums.

    · The 3-month Euro basis swap is -13.50 bps, compared to -12.114 bps the prior day, up from a trough of -147.00 bps on December 14, 2011, and within a normal -10 bps and -40 bps range.

    · German 10-year debt yields are 1.37%, compared to 1.39% the prior day.

    · Japanese 10-year debt yields are 0.60%, compared to 0.60% the prior day.

    · Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields fell to new multi-year lows. Spanish 10-year debt yields are 2.68%, compared to 2.70% the prior day, modestly above the U.S. 10-year yield. Italian 10-year debt yields are at 2.80%, compared to 2.82% the prior day and their June 9th 2.704% recent low. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt years peaked at 7.62% and 7.26%, respectively, in July 2012 and November 2011.

    · U.S. Treasury yields are modestly mixed, with 2- and 10-year maturities yielding 0.455% and 2.592%, respectively, compared to 0.437% and 2.595% Thursday. The yield curve narrowed -2.100 bps, with the 2- to 10-year spread at 2.137%, compared to 2.158% the prior day. In the past year, the 2- and 10-year spread varied from a low of +1.429% on May 1, 2013, to a high of +2.648% on December 31, 2013.

    · The U.S. dollar is mixed, stronger compared to the euro and Japanese yen, but weaker compared to the British pound. The dollar trades at US$80.641, compared to US$80.650 intraday high and US$80.017 the prior day, and better compared to its $80.017 50-day, US$80.121 100-day, and US$80.310 200-day averages. The euro trades at US$1.3533, compared to a US$1.3530 intraday low and US$1.3552 the prior day. The euro trades worse compared to its US$1.3737 50-day and US$1.3736 100-day averages, and compares to a multi-year low of US$1.1877 on June 7, 2010. In Japan, the dollar trades at ¥102.03, compared to ¥101.70 the prior day. The yen trades better than its 50-day moving average ¥102.08, but better than its January 1st 105.31 closing low, its weakest prior multi-year closing low.

    · Citigroup Economic Surprise Index worsened to -17.60, compared to -13.00 the prior day, its 9th consecutive negative reading. The index is mixed compared to its respective -13.98 5-day and -10.78 10-day moving averages. From a +72.70 high on January 15th, the index subsequently trended lower and turned negative on February 19th and fell to a -45.90 124-week low on April 7th . After a lag, the CESIUSD correlates with EPS revisions.

    · Commodities prices are mostly higher, with higher energy, mixed precious metals, lower aluminum and copper, and mostly higher agriculture prices.

    Volatility, Skew:

    · The CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX) rose +8.28% to 12.56, compared to 11.60 at the prior close. The VIX is +6.13% above the 11.83 20-day moving average. Its 30-day high is 14.49. Its 30-day low is 10.73. Its all-time closing low is 9.31 on December 22, 1993. The long-term average is 20.00.

    · The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index (V2X) is 15.08,up +8.94% compared to 13.85 at the prior day's close. The V2X index trades +0.08% below its 15.07 20-day moving average, -23.0% below the 19.59 30-day high, and +16.2% above the 12.98 30-day low.

    · The Hang Seng volatility index (VHSI) closed at 13.10, up +0.77% compared to 13.00 at the prior close. The VHSI index trades -8.65% below its 14.34 20-day moving average. Its lowest historical close was 11.72, on June 30, 2005.

    · CBOE SKEW (SKEW) rose +0.88% to 127.82, compared to 126.71 the prior session, above a neutral reading (115-120), but below 130, a level that correlates with short-term market tops. The recent record high was 143.20 on December 20, 2013. Its recent low was 112.47 on May 25, 2013. Spikes in excess of 130 correlate well with short-term market tops, though not in October or November. The index rarely falls below 110, last on July 31, 2009. The index correlates with market tail risks, the cost of buying out-of-the-money, long-dated options, i.e., options not affected by expirations. A rise suggests that investors are buying more puts than calls, a bearish signal.

    U.S. Economic Reporting and News:
     

    • At 8:30, May MoM PPI final demand fell -0.2%, compared to +0.1% survey and +0.6% prior. YoY PPI final demand fell -0.01%, compared to +2.4% survey and +2.1% prior.
    • May MoM PPI ex food and energy rose +2.0%, compared to +0.1% survey and +0.5% prior. YoY PPI ex food and energy rose 2.0%, compared to +2.3% survey and +1.9% prior.
    • At 9:55, June preliminary University of Michigan confidence, with 83.0 survey and 81.9 prior.


    Overseas Economic Reporting and News:
     

    • China - May YoY retails sale rose +12.5%, compared to +12.1% survey and +11.9% prior. May YoY industrial production rose +8.8%, compared to +8.8% survey and +8.7% prior.
    • Hong Kong - 1Q2014 YoY industrial production rose +2.1%, compared to +0.5% prior.
    • Japan - April final MoM industrial production fell -2.8%, compared to -2.5% prior. MoM capacity utilization fell -2.2%, compared to +0.4% prior.
    • France - 1Q2014 final non-farm payrolls fell -0.1%, compared to -0.1% survey and prior.
    • Germany - May final MoM CPI fell -0.1%, compared to -0.1% survey and prior.
    • United Kingdom - April MoM construction output rose +1.2%, compared to +1.5% survey and -0.2% revised prior.


    Company Ratings/News:
     

    • None.


    Thursday's Trade. On greater lower, but slightly below average NYSE volume, major U.S. equity indexes distributed, their first since May 27th, the start of the current "confirmed uptrend" market outlook. The SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite fell -0.71%, -0.65%, -0.79%, and -0.44%, respectively. The SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are at least +0.95% higher in 2014. Market breadth was negative, with gainers 0.70x losing stocks. Most SPX market segments closed lower. Leaders were oil and gas and utilities, which rose at least +0.26%, and telecommunications, which fell at least -0.30%. Financials fell -0.60%. Laggards were basic materials, industrials, and consumer services, which fell at least -1.07%.

    Other notable indexes closed mixed. The Russell 2000 (RTY) fell -0.63% and closed -4.07% below its March 4th record. The Nasdaq Internet Index (QNET) fell -0.99% and is again in correction, -11.5% below its March 6th closing high. The Nasdaq Biotech Index (NBI) fell -0.45%, down -9.33% from its recent February 25th record high.

    NYSE volume rose +16.9% to 621.17 million shares, compared to 531.56 million shares the prior day, 0.99x the 630.85 million share 20-day moving average volume. Bond markets strengthened. The U.S. 10-year yield opened at 2.6403%, but weakened after the morning's disappointing May retail sales report, and fell through the session to a late 2.5735% intraday low. On the session, the yield fell -4.4.43 bps to 2.5951%, compared to 2.6394% at the prior close.

    From its prior day 1943.89 SPX close, June 2014 SPX futures (SPM4) weakened following weak retail sales numbers and suggested a moderately lower open. In early trading, the index fell to 1940, then traded narrowly through early afternoon, before weakening to a late 1925.78 intraday low. The index closed at 1930.11, +79.6% above the 1074.77 October 4, 2011, intraday low, the bottom of the most recent correction.

    From its prior day 8,141.55 close, the DJ Transportation index (TRAN) fell -1.95%, compared to the DJI's -0.65% loss. The TRAN opened at the 8,135.64 intraday high and fell to a mid-morning 7,960.47 intraday low, then traded narrowly to the close. The TRAN closed at 7,983.04. Volume rose +45.0% to 18.956 million shares, compared to 13.073 million shares the prior session, and 1.59x the 15-day moving average volume. The TRAN closed -0.63% below and +2.39% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +5.20% and +9.84% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving averages.

    Market volatility rose +8.28%, as the CBOE SPX volatility index (VIX) closed at 12.56, compared to 11.60 at the prior close. The index opened at 11.80, fell to a late morning 11.71, then trended higher to a late 12.81 intraday high. The VIX's all-time closing low is 9.31, on December 22, 1993. Its record high is 89.53 in December 2008. Its lifetime average is 20.01. The CBOE put/call SKEW rose +0.88% to 127.82, compared to 126.71 the prior session, above a neutral 115-120 range, but below 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops.

    The market's technical factors were little changed. The SPX relative strength (RSI) fell to 58.90, compared to 68.06 the prior day, in a neutral range, down from an overbought 73.73 on June 9th, but far better than an oversold 31.24 on February 3rd. The RSI compared to an overbought 71.26 on December 31st, when the SPX closed at an earlier record high, and compares to earlier oversold levels of 35.14 on August 27th and 39.19 on October 9th.

    This week, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are down -0.99%, -1.12%, -0.55%, and -0.73%, respectively. Last week, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +1.34%, +1.24%, +1.86%, and +1.38%, respectively. In June, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +0.34%, +0.10%, +1.30%, and +0.64%, respectively, compared to May, when the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +2.10%, +0.82%, +3.11%, and +1.22%, respectively.

    In 2014, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +4.42%, +0.95%, +2.90%, and +4.08%, respectively. In 2013, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +29.6%, +26.5%, +38.2%, +23.2%, respectively. All closed at least +5.91% higher in 2012.

    KBW Bank Index (BKX). On much lower and below average volume, the BKX fell -0.63% to 70.67, compared to 71.12 at the prior day's close, its 6th consecutive close above 70, but -3.07% below its 72.91 March 20th post-2008 closing high. In early trading, the index fell to 70.80, but immediately rallied to an early 71.24 intraday high before weakening again to support at 70.80. The index weakened again moving into the afternoon and fell to a late 70.51 intraday low. Volume rose +9.96% to 38.580 million shares, compared to 35.087 million shares the prior day, and 1.01x the 38.197 million share 15-day moving average.

    Large cap banks underperformed the regional banks, as the KBW regional banking index (KRX) fell -0.34%.

    This week, the BKX is down -0.21%, compared to last week, when the BKX closed up +2.77%. In June, the BKX is up +2.55%, compared to May, when the BKX closed up +0.70%. In 2014, the BKX is up +2.04%, compared to the SPX's +4.42% gain. In 2013, the BKX rose +35.1%, better than the SPX's +29.6% rise.

    The BKX is now +19.4% better than the June 24, 2013, 59.19 close, its worst since May 13, 2013. The index crossed above 50 on December 17, 2012, 60 on May 15, 2013, and 70 on January 8, 2014, but then dropped back below 70 on January 24th, which persisted until March 6th. On April 10th, the BKX fell below 70.00 and then eased consistently to the May 15th 66.81 closing low, its lowest close since early February. The BKX closed +117.1% above the 32.56 intraday low on October 4, 2011, the bottom of that year's correction. Large-cap bank stocks have outperformed the broader market's rebound, with the SPX up +80.9% in the same period.

    The BKX index closed -41.6% below its February 20, 2007, record 121.06 high. The BKX is up +279.5% from its 18.62 March 6, 2009, closing low, its low during the 2008-09 financial panic.

    Technical indicators were little changed. The index closed +2.29% and +2.24% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +1.96% and +4.67% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving average. The 20-day moving average rose +15 bps to 69.09. The 69.16 50-day moving average fell -4 bps. Its 69.31 100-day moving average was unchanged, and the 200-day moving average rose +3 bps to 67.52. The 20-day closed (by -0.03 points) below the 50-day, and the negative gap narrowed +18 bps. The 50-day moving average closed (by +1.60 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap narrowed -7 bps. The 100-day moving average closed (by +1.80 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap fell -2 bps.

    The directional movement indicator narrowed to +14.040, compared to +19.232 the prior day, its 13th consecutive positive reading. Relative strength fell to 60.01, compared to 64.66 the prior day, in a neutral range, but down from an overbought 73.14 on June 9th, and up from the recent 32.95 low on February 3rd. The lowest RSI level was 31.08 on November 14, 2012, which is also the date of the BKX's 2012 closing low. Next resistance is 71.10; next support is 70.27.

    SPX, DJI, RTY, TRAN, CCMP, NYA, VIX, SKEW, NKY, EURUSD, USGG10YR, HSI, SHCOMP, SX5E, CAC, DAX, FTSE, JPY, GBP, EUR

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