This morning. U.S. equity futures are modestly lower, but in the middle of their trading range and improving following a better than expected June Empire manufacturing report. The market outlook is "confirmed uptrend". In Asia, equity markets closed mixed, with weakness in Japan, but strength in Shanghai. In early afternoon, European bourses are moderately lower and near their intraday lows. The euro is slightly weaker. U.S. Treasury 10-year yields are higher at 2.5861%. Commodities are mostly higher as Iraq continues to generate concerns that petroleum supplies will be disrupted by the recent sectarian violence. Tuesday's Nikkei 225 June 2014 (NKM4) equity futures are moderately lower.
Friday, on lower and below average volume, major U.S. indexes rebound moderately from mid-week losses. All major indexes closed higher. The S&P 500 index (SPX), DJ Industrial index (Private:DJI), Nasdaq, and NYSE composite rose +0.31%, +0.25%, +0.30%, and +0.29%, respectively. Last week, all are at least -0.25% lower, but in June, indexes are up least +0.35%. In 2014, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are +4.75%, +1.20%, +3.21%, and +4.38% higher in 2014, respectively. NYSE volume rose +16.9% to 0.98x its 20-day moving average.
Other notable indexes were mixed. The DJ Transports (TRAN) rose +0.75%. The Russell 2000 (RTY) rose +0.28% to close -3.80% below early March highs. The Nasdaq Internet (QNET) index rose +0.41%, but the Nasdaq Biotech (NBI) index fell -0.03%. The QNET is in correction, down -11.2%, while the NBI closed -9.36% from its recent high.
Trading desks report relatively quiet markets over the weekend, with mixed reports out of Iraq. Regarding Friday's U.S. market rebound, attention turns to Wednesday's FOMC decision. Traders expect an uncontroversial meeting as economic trends have tracked the last statement's (April 30th) expectations, with another $10 billion taper, a conclusion of quantitative easing by year-end and no increase in the Fed Funds rate before mid-next year. Last week's equity weakness shows consolidation, with sentiment suggesting near-term caution, but correction calls remain muted.
Today's economic reporting focuses on June empire manufacturing, which exceeded survey and prior, followed at 9:15 by May industrial production, capacity utilization, and manufacturing production. Relative strength indicators are within a neutral range.
The 2Q2014 earnings seasons begins today. In 1Q2014, 499 of 499 SPX companies reported with respective +5.91% EPS and +0.20% revenue surprises. Forward estimates moved up. Compared to February 28th, the May-end 2014 EPS estimate rose +0.39% to $118.20, from $117.74. Respective estimates for 2015 and 2016 are now $131.49 and $145.88, compared to $130.81 and $144.98 at February-end, respective increases of +0.52% and +0.62%. Price earnings multiples remain elevated. With SPX equities trading at a 17.6x (compared to 17.5x the prior day) 2013 earnings multiple, attention focuses on 2014 earnings and valuations (17.6x times survey $118.24 2014 SPX operating earnings suggests a 2078.40 SPX level in the next year, a +7.35% rise from yesterday's close).
Technicals were little changed. Led by oil and gas, most SPX market segments rose. Market breadth was positive, and up volume led down volume. Volatility fell and remains near the lower end of historical ranges. Treasury bond markets weakened. On the day, the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond yield rose +0.82 bps to 2.6033%, compared to 2.5951% at the prior close.
This morning, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are down -1.72 bps at 2.5861%, compared to 2.6033% at the prior close. World sovereign bond markets are modestly stronger. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields are 2.64% and +2.76%, respectively, compared to 2.66% and +2.77% the prior day.
U.S. options markets were unchanged at neutral to bullish, compared to neutral to bullish the prior day. The CBOE SKEW fell modestly, but remains above a neutral range, though below 130.
In pre-market futures trading, June SPX equity futures (SPM4) price near the middle of a 1919-1928 trading range. After a fair value adjustment of -0.59 points, the SPM4 future prices at 1924.75, down -2.91 points. The SPX opens +0.94% and +2.51% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +3.95% and +6.97% above its 200-day moving averages. Initial resistance is 1939.74. Initial support is 1930.13, then 1924.11.
"Confirmed Uptrend" Market Outlook and Distribution Day Count. On May 27th , the market outlook improved to "confirmed uptrend", ending a period of market "in correction" that began on April 4th. The SPX closed June 9th at a record 1951.27, +7.47% above the 1815.69 close on April 11th, the low close. On March 5, 2014, the Nasdaq peaked at a multi-year 4,357.97 high (compared to its 4,572.83 March 31, 2000 record close), then fell -8.22% to 3,999.73 before recovering +8.46% to the June 10th 4,338.00 close. Since May 27th, there was one distribution on the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite.
In Asia, equity markets closed mixed. The Nikkei 225 (NYSEARCA:NKY) fell -1.09%. The Hang Seng (HSI) Index fell -0.08%, and the Shanghai SE (SHCOMP) rose +0.74%. The NKY, HSI, and SHCOMP 50-day moving averages are below their respective 200-day moving averages. Today's volumes are unavailable.
Asian economic commentary focused on Chinese industrial production reports.
Last week, the NKY closed up +0.14%, the HSI rose +1.60%, and the SHCOMP rose +2.01%. The prior week, the NKY closed up +3.04%, while the HSI lost -0.57% and the SHCOMP -0.45%. In June, the NKY is up +2.06%, the HSI is up +0.95%, and the SHCOMP is up +2.29%. In May, the NKY closed up +2.29%, the HSI rose +4.28%, and the SHCOMP rose +0.63%.
In 2014, the NKY is down -8.34%, the HSI is down -0.02%. The SHCOMP is down -1.42%. In 2013, the NKY rose +56.7%. The HSI closed up +2.87%. The SHCOMP closed down -6.75%.
In China, short-term interbank lending rates remain volatile, as the SHIBO 7-day rate fell -2 bps to 3.00%, compared to 3.02% the prior day, up from a 2.26% low on March 11th, but down from the February 7th 5.41% recent high.
Regional relative strength indexes (RSI) show Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Shanghai in neutral ranges. The NKY RSI ended at 56.46, compared to 63.77 the prior day, up from an oversold 27.92 on February 4th, the most recent prior yearly low. The HSI RSI fell to 61.79, compared to 62.51 the prior day. The SHCOMP's RSI rose to 64.51, compared to 60.51 the prior session. On June 27, 2013, the index's RSI fell to a low of 15.27, which was also last year's low index close.
In Japan, the NKY closed a14,933.29, compared to 15,097.84 the prior day, -8.34% below its recent year-end 16,291.31 high and -61.6% below its late-1989 38,915.87 high close. The index gapped lower to open at the 15,056.75 intraday high and trended lower to a mid-afternoon 14,867.15 intraday low. Most market segments closed lower. Leaders were technology, which rose +0.38%, and basic materials and utilities, which fell at least -0.44%. Laggards were financials, telecommunications, and consumer services, which fell at least -1.26%.
In China, the HSI closed at 23,300.67, compared to 23,319.17 at the prior close. In early trading, the index fell to an early 23,232.56 intraday low, then rallied to breakeven in early afternoon. The index traded narrowly lower late in the session. Leaders were technology and oil and gas, which rose at least +0.30%, and utilities, which fell at least -0.03%. Laggards were basic materials, consumer services, and consumer goods, which fell at least -0.45%. The index closed -2.55% below its recent December 3rd 23,910.47 high, but +27.4% above its 18,185.59 June 4, 2012 low.
In Shanghai, the SHCOMP closed at 2,085.98, compared to 2,070.72 at the prior close, +6.97% above the 1,950.01 June 27, 2013 close, last year's low. The index traded narrowly through the morning session, then strengthened and rallied to a late 2,087.32 intraday high. All market segments closed at least +0.04% higher. Leaders were telecommunications, oil and gas, and industrials. Financials rose +0.77%. Laggards were utilities, consumer services, and health care.
In Europe, equities have trended lower through mid-afternoon, and are moderately lower and near their intraday lows. The Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are down -0.60%, -0.41%, -0.56%, and -0.29%, respectively. The Spanish IBEX 35 is down -1.19%. The Italian FTSE MIB is down -0.94%.
Economic reporting is light. The euro is slightly stronger compared to the dollar.
European bourses have recently outperformed U.S. equity indexes. Intraday Euro Stoxx50 relative strength (RSI) is 55.85, compared to 56.09 at the prior close, in a neutral (30-70) range, better than its recent February 5th 33.57 low, which coincided with its 2014 low. The indexes lowest recent RSI level was 25.77 on June 24th, which marked the 2013 2,494.54 closing low.
The Euro Stoxx50 trades -37.8% below its 5,249.55 March 31, 2000, all-time closing high. From its prior day 3,282.84 close, the index trended lower through the morning session to an early afternoon 3,259.82 intraday low. The index currently trades at 3,262.61. Most market segments are lower. Leaders are technology, which is up +0.76%, and oil and gas, and health care, which are down -0.32%. Laggards are telecommunications, consumer services, and financials, which are down at least -0.83%.
Last week, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed down -0.35%, -1.17%, -0.83%, and -0.74%, respectively. The prior week, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed up +1.53%, +0.20%, +1.36%, and +0.44%, respectively. In June, the Euro Stoxx50 is up +0.54%, while the FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are down -1.37%, -0.06%, and -0.59%, respectively. In May, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed up +1.44%, +0.95%, +0.72%, +3.54%, respectively.
In 2014, the indexes are higher. The Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +4.93%, +0.03%, +5.14%, and +3.48%, respectively. In 2013, the indexes closed up +18.0%, +14.4%, +18.0%, and +25.5%, respectively.
2Q2014 SPX Earnings. SPX 1Q2014 are complete. Of 499 (of 499) reporting companies, 370 or 74.5% surprised positively on earnings, with an average +5.91% surprise average. Of reporting companies, 263 or 53.0% reported sales or revenues above estimates. The average sales/revenue surprise was +0.20%. Energy led with respective +10.0% and -1.01% earnings and revenue surprises. Financials had a respective +5.67% and +0.26% earnings and revenue surprises. Consumer staples lagged with respective +0.34% and -0.66% earnings and revenue surprises.
Valuation. The SPX trades at 17.5x estimated 2013 earnings ($110.15), 16.3x estimated 2014 earnings ($118.19), 14.7x estimated 2015 earnings ($131.40), and 13.4x estimated 2016 earnings ($145.77). The 10-year average median price/earnings multiple is 15.9x. Analysts expect 2014, 2015, and 2016 earnings to grow +7.35%, +11.2%, and 10.9%, respectively.
The KBW Bank Index (BKX) trades at 13.7x 2013 adjusted EPS ($5.16), 13.2x estimated 2014 earnings ($5.34), 11.8x estimated 2015 earnings ($6.00), and 10.6x 2016 earnings ($6.67). Analysts expect 2014, 2015, 2016 EPS will grow +3.49%, +12.3%, and +11.2%, respectively.
Composite, index, and equity options. Options markets are unchanged at neutral to bullish, compared to neutral to bullish the prior session. Composite options are bullish, index options are bullish, and equity options are neutral. The composite put/call ratio is 0.76, compared to 0.79 the prior day, and better than 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.76 and 0.78, respectively. The index put/call ratio is 0.67, compared to 0.79 the prior day, and better than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.80 and 0.91, respectively. The equity put/call ratio closed the day at 0.83, compared to 0.80 the prior day, and worse than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.75 and 0.74, respectively.
NYSE Volume, Breadth Indicators. Volume fell -7.52% to 574.43 million shares, compared to 621.17 million shares the prior day, 0.84x the 622.06 million share 20-day moving average. Market breadth was positive, and up volume led down volume. Advancing stocks lagged by +451 (compared to -548 the prior day) or 1.35:1. Up volume was 2.39:1 down volume.
Libor, LOIS, Currencies, Treasuries, Commodities:
· USD LIBOR is 0.09221%, compared to 0.09220% the prior day. USD 3-month LIBOR is 0.23060%, down from 0.23210% the prior day, and compares to the January 4, 2013, recent peak of 0.58250%.
· The US LIBOR-OIS (LOIS) spread is 12.680 bps, compared to 12.810 bps the prior day, and compares to the recent June 12, 2012, 46.785 bps high. Euribor-OIS is 19.700 bps, compared to 19.100 bps the prior day, and down from the December 27, 2011, high of 98.800 bps. Moves in the LOIS indicate changes in intra-bank lending risk premiums.
· The 3-month Euro basis swap is -15.771 bps, compared to -13.776 bps the prior day, up from a trough of -147.00 bps on December 14, 2011, and within a normal -10 bps and -40 bps range.
· German 10-year debt yields are 1.35%, compared to 1.37% the prior day.
· Japanese 10-year debt yields are 0.60%, compared to 0.60% the prior day.
· Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields fell. Spanish 10-year debt yields are 2.64%, compared to 2.66% the prior day, modestly above the U.S. 10-year yield and compares to its 2.575% June 9th low. Italian 10-year debt yields are at 2.76%, compared to 2.77% the prior day and their June 9th 2.704% recent low. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt years peaked at 7.62% and 7.26%, respectively, in July 2012 and November 2011.
· U.S. Treasury yields are modestly mixed, with 2- and 10-year maturities yielding 0.468% and 2.584%, respectively, compared to 0.449% and 2.603% Friday. The yield curve narrowed -3.720 bps, with the 2- to 10-year spread at 2.117%, compared to 2.154% the prior day. In the past year, the 2- and 10-year spread varied from a low of +1.429% on May 1, 2013, to a high of +2.648% on December 31, 2013.
· The U.S. dollar is mixed, weaker compared to the euro and Japanese yen, but stronger compared to the British pound. The dollar trades at US$80.590, compared to US$80.501 intraday low and US$80.576 the prior day, and better compared to its $80.023 50-day, US$80.121 100-day, and US$80.304 200-day averages. The euro trades at US$1.3541, compared to a US$1.3552 intraday high and US$1.3540 the prior day. The euro trades worse compared to its US$1.3733 50-day and US$1.3735 100-day averages, and compares to a multi-year low of US$1.1877 on June 7, 2010. In Japan, the dollar trades at ¥101.83, compared to ¥102.04 the prior day. The yen trades worse than its 50-day moving average ¥102.06, but better than its January 1st 105.31 closing low, its weakest prior multi-year closing low.
· Citigroup Economic Surprise Index worsened to -19.50, compared to -17.60 the prior day, its 10h consecutive negative reading. The index is worse compared to its respective -15.30 5-day and -12.25 10-day moving averages. From a +72.70 high on January 15th, the index subsequently trended lower and turned negative on February 19th and fell to a -45.90 124-week low on April 7th . After a lag, the CESIUSD correlates with EPS revisions.
· Commodities prices are mostly higher, with higher energy, higher precious metals, higher aluminum and copper, and mostly higher agriculture prices.
· The CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX) fell -3.03% to 12.18, compared to 12.56 at the prior close. The VIX is +3.35% above the 11.79 20-day moving average. Its 30-day high is 14.49. Its 30-day low is 10.73. Its all-time closing low is 9.31 on December 22, 1993. The long-term average is 20.00.
· The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index (V2X) is 15.23,up +7.60% compared to 14.15 at the prior day's close. The V2X index trades +1.58% below its 14.99 20-day moving average, -20.2% below the 19.09 30-day high, and +17.3% above the 12.98 30-day low.
· The Hang Seng volatility index (VHSI) closed at 13.23, up +0.99% compared to 13.10 at the prior close. The VHSI index trades -7.17% below its 14.25 20-day moving average. Its lowest historical close was 11.72, on June 30, 2005.
· CBOE SKEW (SKEW) fell -0.03% to 127.78, compared to 127.82 the prior session, above a neutral reading (115-120), but below 130, a level that correlates with short-term market tops. The recent record high was 143.20 on December 20, 2013. Its recent low was 112.47 on May 25, 2013. Spikes in excess of 130 correlate well with short-term market tops, though not in October or November. The index rarely falls below 110, last on July 31, 2009. The index correlates with market tail risks, the cost of buying out-of-the-money, long-dated options, i.e., options not affected by expirations. A rise suggests that investors are buying more puts than calls, a bearish signal.
U.S. Economic Reporting and News:
- At 8:30, June Empire manufacturing was 19.28, compared to 15.00 survey and 19.01 revised prior.
- At 9:15, May MoM industrial production, with +0.5% survey and -0.6% prior.
- May capacity utilization, with 78.9% survey and 78.6% prior.
- May manufacturing production, with +0.6% survey and -0.4% prior.
Overseas Economic Reporting and News:
- Eurozone - MoM CPI fell -0.1%, compared to -0.1% survey and +0.2% prior. YoY CPI rose +0.5%, compared to +0.5% survey and prior.
Friday's Trade. On lower and below average NYSE volume, major U.S. equity indexes rose moderately. The SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite rose +0.31%, +0.25%, +0.30%, and +0.29%, respectively. The SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are at least +1.20% higher in 2014. Market breadth was positive, with gainers 1.35x losing stocks. Most SPX market segments closed higher. Leaders were oil and gas, technology, and utilities, which rose at least +0.64%. Laggards were financials and consumer services, which rose at least +0.01%, and health care, which fell -0.02%.
Other notable indexes closed mixed. The Russell 2000 (RTY) rose +0.28% and closed -3.80% below its March 4th record. The Nasdaq Internet Index (QNET) rose +0.40%, but is in correction, -11.1% below its March 6th closing high. The Nasdaq Biotech Index (NBI) fell -0.03%, down -9.36% from its recent February 25th record high.
NYSE volume fell -7.52% to 574.43 million shares, compared to 621.17 million shares the prior day, 0.92x the 622.06 million share 20-day moving average volume. Bond markets strengthened. The U.S. 10-year yield opened at 2.6023%, strengthened to an mid-morning 2.5843% intraday low, then weakened and rose to the session's 2.6422% intraday high following after the 10:00 confidence report. The index strengthened again late in the session. On the session, the yield rose +0.82 bps to 2.6033%, compared to 2.5951% at the prior close.
From its prior day 1930.11 SPX close, June 2014 SPX futures (SPM4) suggested a modestly higher open. In early trading, the index opened higher, but reversed lower after the 10:00 release of lower than expected June preliminary University of Michigan confidence. From its mid-morning 1927.69 intraday low, the index reversed higher by late morning, then traded narrowly around 1936 to a final hour 1937.30 intraday high. The index closed at 1936.16, +80.2% above the 1074.77 October 4, 2011, intraday low, the bottom of the most recent correction.
From its prior day 8,141.55 close, the DJ Transportation index (TRAN) rose +0.75%, compared to the DJI's +0.25% gain. The TRAN rose to 8,030 by mid-morning and subsequently traded narrowly through the session with a late 8,057.79 intraday high. The index closed at 8,042.85, -2.10% below its June 9th 8,214.99 record close. Volume fell -31.9% to 12.910 million shares, compared to 18.956 million shares the prior session, and 1.05x the 15-day moving average volume. The TRAN closed -0.05% below and +3.06% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +5.91% and +10.5% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving averages.
Market volatility fell -3.03%, as the CBOE SPX volatility index (VIX) closed at 12.18, compared to 12.56 at the prior close. The index rose to an early 12.69 intraday high, but eased by mid-morning to 12.10, where it traded through the session with a late session 11.89 intraday low. The VIX's all-time closing low is 9.31, on December 22, 1993. Its record high is 89.53 in December 2008. Its lifetime average is 20.01. The CBOE put/call SKEW fell -0.03% to 127.78, compared to 127.82 the prior session, above a neutral 115-120 range, but below 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops.
The market's technical factors were little changed. The SPX relative strength (RSI) rose to 61.36, compared to 58.90 the prior day, in a neutral range, down from an overbought 73.73 on June 9th, but far better than an oversold 31.24 on February 3rd. The RSI compared to an overbought 71.26 on December 31st, when the SPX closed at an earlier record high, and compares to earlier oversold levels of 35.14 on August 27th and 39.19 on October 9th.
Last week, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed down -0.68%, -0.88%, -0.25%, and -0.44%, respectively. The prior week, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +1.34%, +1.24%, +1.86%, and +1.38%, respectively. In June, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +0.65%, +0.35%, +1.60%, and +0.93%, respectively, compared to May, when the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +2.10%, +0.82%, +3.11%, and +1.22%, respectively.
In 2014, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +4.75%, +1.20%, +3.21%, and +4.38%, respectively. In 2013, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +29.6%, +26.5%, +38.2%, +23.2%, respectively. All closed at least +5.91% higher in 2012.
KBW Bank Index (BKX). On greater and above average volume, the BKX rose +0.06% to 70.71, compared to 70.67 at the prior day's close, its 7th consecutive close above 70, but -3.02% below its 72.91 March 20th post-2008 closing high. The index rose to a mid-morning 71.24 intraday high, but bell back to breakeven by mid-session, then traded narrowly to the close with a late 70.50 intraday high. Volume rose +15.7% to 44.620 million shares, compared to 38.580 million shares the prior day, and 1.15x the 38.871 million share 15-day moving average.
Large cap banks outperformed the regional banks, as the KBW regional banking index (KRX) fell -0.30%.
Last week, the BKX closed off -0.16%, compared to last week, when the BKX closed up +2.77%. In June, the BKX is up +2.61%, compared to May, when the BKX closed up +0.70%. In 2014, the BKX is up +2.09%, compared to the SPX's +4.75% gain. In 2013, the BKX rose +35.1%, better than the SPX's +29.6% rise.
The BKX is now +19.5% better than the June 24, 2013, 59.19 close, its worst since May 13, 2013. The index crossed above 50 on December 17, 2012, 60 on May 15, 2013, and 70 on January 8, 2014, but then dropped back below 70 on January 24th, which persisted until March 6th. On April 10th, the BKX fell below 70.00 and then eased consistently to the May 15th 66.81 closing low, its lowest close since early February. The BKX closed +117.2% above the 32.56 intraday low on October 4, 2011, the bottom of that year's correction. Large-cap bank stocks have outperformed the broader market's rebound, with the SPX up +80.2% in the same period.
The BKX index closed -41.6% below its February 20, 2007, record 121.06 high. The BKX is up +279.8% from its 18.62 March 6, 2009, closing low, its low during the 2008-09 financial panic.
Technical indicators were little changed. The index closed +2.07% and +2.36% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +2.02% and +4.66% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving average. The 20-day moving average rose +19 bps to 69.28. The 69.08 50-day moving average fell -8 bps. Its 69.31 100-day moving average was unchanged, and the 200-day moving average rose +4 bps to 67.56. The 20-day closed (by +0.20 points) below the 50-day, and the gap widened +22 bps. The 50-day moving average closed (by +1.52 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap narrowed -8 bps. The 100-day moving average closed (by +1.75 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap fell -5 bps.
The directional movement indicator narrowed to +12.963, compared to +14.040 the prior day, its 14th consecutive positive reading. Relative strength rose to 60.28, compared to 60.01 the prior day, in a neutral range, but down from an overbought 73.14 on June 9th and up from the recent 32.95 low on February 3rd. The lowest RSI level was 31.08 on November 14, 2012, which is also the date of the BKX's 2012 closing low. Next resistance is 71.13; next support is 70.39.
SPX, DJI, RTY, TRAN, CCMP, NYA, VIX, SKEW, NKY, EURUSD, USGG10YR, HSI, SHCOMP, SX5E, CAC, DAX, FTSE, JPY, GBP, EUR