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Gary Townsend - Founding member and Chairman, GBT Capital Management, LLC, a macro long/short fund based in Chevy Chase, Maryland. Also, 2007-2013, a founding partner, CEO and Portfolio Manager of Hill-Townsend Capital LLC, a long/short equity financial sector fund. Mr. Townsend has 35 years... More
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  • U.S. Futures Advance Modestly; Asia Ends Mixed; Europe Consolidates  0 comments
    Jun 17, 2014 8:40 AM

    This morning. U.S. equity futures are modestly higher and in the middle of their trading range. This morning's May U.S. CPIs and housing starts and building permits had little impact when released at 8:30. The FOMC starts its 2-day meeting today. The market outlook is "confirmed uptrend". In Asia, equity markets closed mixed, with weakness in Japan, but strength in Shanghai. In early afternoon, European bourses are moderately lower and near their intraday lows. The euro is slightly weaker. U.S. Treasury 10-year yields are higher at 2.5861%. Commodities are mostly higher as Iraq continues to generate concerns that petroleum supplies will be disrupted by the recent sectarian violence. Wednesday's Nikkei 225 June 2014 (NKM4) equity futures are modestly higher.

    Monday, on lower and below average volume, major U.S. indexes rebound moderately from mid-week losses. All major indexes closed higher. The S&P 500 index (SPX), DJ Industrial index (DJI), Nasdaq, and NYSE composite rose +0.31%, +0.25%, +0.30%, and +0.29%, respectively. Last week, all are at least -0.25% lower, but in June, indexes are up least +0.35%. In 2014, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are +4.75%, +1.20%, +3.21%, and +4.38% higher in 2014, respectively. NYSE volume rose +16.9% to 0.98x its 20-day moving average.

    Other notable indexes were mixed. The DJ Transports (TRAN) rose +0.75%. The Russell 2000 (RTY) rose +0.28% to close -3.80% below early March highs. The Nasdaq Internet (QNET) index rose +0.41%, but the Nasdaq Biotech (NBI) index fell -0.03%. The QNET is in correction, down -11.2%, while the NBI closed -9.36% from its recent high.

    Trading desks report another quiet overnight, as Asia closed mixed with somewhat greater weakness in China following disappointing FDI. Europe opened higher but eased to breakeven by mid-session. Regarding Monday's trade, value underperformed momentum stocks as U.S. markets continued to consolidate recent gains and last week's overbought conditions ease. Relative strength indicators are again within a neutral range. Traders expect an uncontroversial FOMC meeting as economic trends have tracked the last statement's (April 30th) expectations, with another $10 billion taper, a conclusion of quantitative easing by year-end and no increase in the Fed Funds rate before mid-next year.

    The 2Q2014 earnings seasons begins today. In 1Q2014, 499 of 499 SPX companies reported with respective +5.91% EPS and +0.20% revenue surprises. Forward estimates moved up. Compared to February 28th, the May-end 2014 EPS estimate rose +0.39% to $118.20, from $117.74. Respective estimates for 2015 and 2016 are now $131.49 and $145.88, compared to $130.81 and $144.98 at February-end, respective increases of +0.52% and +0.62%. Price earnings multiples remain elevated. With SPX equities trading at a 17.6x (compared to 17.5x the prior day) 2013 earnings multiple, attention focuses on 2014 earnings and valuations (17.6x times survey $118.24 2014 SPX operating earnings suggests a 2078.40 SPX level in the next year, a +7.35% rise from yesterday's close).

    Technicals were little changed. Led by utilities, most SPX market segments rose. Market breadth was modestly positive, but up volume lagged down volume. Volatility rose, but remains near the lower end of historical ranges. Treasury bond markets strengthened. On the day, the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond yield fell -0.63 bps to 2.5970%, compared to 2.6033% at the prior close.

    This morning, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are down -0.46 bps at 2.5934%, compared to 2.5970% at the prior close. World sovereign bond markets are modestly weaker. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields are 2.70% and +2.81%, respectively, compared to 2.67% and +2.79% the prior day.

    U.S. options markets were unchanged at neutral to bullish, compared to neutral to bullish the prior day. The CBOE SKEW fell modestly, but remains above a neutral range, though below 130.

    In pre-market futures trading, June SPX equity futures (SPM4) price near the middle of a 1929-1935 trading range. After a fair value adjustment of -0.59 points, the SPM4 future prices at 1924.75, down -2.91 points. The SPX opens +0.87% and +2.54% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +3.98% and +6.97% above its 200-day moving averages. Initial resistance is 1942.32. Initial support is 1932.08, then 1926.37.

    "Confirmed Uptrend" Market Outlook and Distribution Day Count. On May 27th , the market outlook improved to "confirmed uptrend", ending a period of market "in correction" that began on April 4th. The SPX closed June 9th at a record 1951.27, +7.47% above the 1815.69 close on April 11th, the low close. On March 5, 2014, the Nasdaq peaked at a multi-year 4,357.97 high (compared to its 4,572.83 March 31, 2000 record close), then fell -8.22% to 3,999.73 before recovering +8.46% to the June 10th 4,338.00 close. Since May 27th, there was one distribution on the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite.

    In Asia, equity markets closed mixed. The Nikkei 225 (NYSEARCA:NKY) rose +0.29%. The Hang Seng (HSI) Index fell -0.42%, and the Shanghai SE (SHCOMP) fell -0.92%. The NKY, HSI, and SHCOMP 50-day moving averages are below their respective 200-day moving averages. Today's volumes are unavailable.

    Asian economic commentary focused on slowing foreign direct investment in China.

    This week, the NKY, HSI, and SHCOMP are down -0.81%, -0.50%, and -0.19%, respectively. Last week, the NKY closed up +0.14%, the HSI rose +1.60%, and the SHCOMP rose +2.01%. In June, the NKY is up +2.35%, the HSI is up +0.53%, and the SHCOMP is up +1.35%. In May, the NKY closed up +2.29%, the HSI rose +4.28%, and the SHCOMP rose +0.63%.

    In 2014, the NKY is down -8.07%, the HSI is down -0.44%. The SHCOMP is down -2.33%. In 2013, the NKY rose +56.7%. The HSI closed up +2.87%. The SHCOMP closed down -6.75%.

    In China, short-term interbank lending rates remain volatile, as the SHIBO 7-day rate rose +3 bps to 3.03%, compared to 3.00% the prior day, up from a 2.26% low on March 11th, but down from the February 7th 5.41% recent high.

    Regional relative strength indexes (RSI) show Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Shanghai in neutral ranges. The NKY RSI ended at 57.81, compared to 56.46 the prior day, up from an oversold 27.92 on February 4th, the most recent prior yearly low. The HSI RSI fell to 57.97, compared to 61.79 the prior day. The SHCOMP's RSI rose to 56.70, compared to 64.51 the prior session. On June 27, 2013, the index's RSI fell to a low of 15.27, which was also last year's low index close.

    In Japan, the NKY closed at 14,975.97, compared to 14,933.29 the prior day, -8.07% below its recent year-end 16,291.31 high and -61.5% below its late-1989 38,915.87 high close. The index rallied to a late morning 15,026.96 intraday high, then eased lower through the afternoon. Most market segments closed higher. Leaders were consumer staples, information technology, and industrials, which rose at least +0.51%. Laggards were consumer discretionary, which rose +0.23%, and energy and telecommunications, which fell at least -0.08%.

    In China, the HSI closed at 23,203.59, compared to 23,300.67 at the prior close. The index opened below 23,240, set and early 23,242.69 intraday high, then fell to a late morning 23,127.02 intraday low. The index improved modestly through the afternoon. Leaders were consumer staples, energy and telecommunications, which rose at least +0.03%. Laggards were financials, consumer goods, and technology, which fell at least -0.56%. The index closed -2.96% below its recent December 3rd 23,910.47 high, but +27.6% above its 18,185.59 June 4, 2012 low.

    In Shanghai, the SHCOMP closed at 2,066.70, compared to 2,085.98 at the prior close, +5.98% above the 1,950.01 June 27, 2013 close, last year's low. The index opened at the 2,080.48 intraday high, then eased through early afternoon before finding support at 2,066. Most market segments closed lower. Leaders were technology, which rose +0.39%, and energy and utilities, which fell at least -0.61%. Financials fell -1.03%. Laggards were industrials, telecommunications, and consumer goods, which fell at least -1.03%.

    In Europe, equities opened higher and traded to mid-morning highs, but then traded back to breakeven in early afternoon and currently trade with modest gains. The Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +0.16%, +0.06%, +0.22%, and +0.25%, respectively. The Spanish IBEX 35 is up +0.25%. The Italian FTSE MIB is up +0.25%.

    Economic reporting is light. The euro is slightly weaker compared to the dollar.

    European bourses have recently outperformed U.S. equity indexes. Intraday Euro Stoxx50 relative strength (RSI) is 56.66, compared to 55.85 at the prior close, in a neutral (30-70) range, better than its recent February 5th 33.57 low, which coincided with its 2014 low. The indexes lowest recent RSI level was 25.77 on June 24th, which marked the 2013 2,494.54 closing low.

    The Euro Stoxx50 trades -37.9% below its 5,249.55 March 31, 2000, all-time closing high. From its prior day 3,261.42 close, the index rallied to an early 3,284.73 intraday high, then fell to an early afternoon 3,260.23 intraday low. The index currently trades at 3,266.60. Most market segments are higher. Leaders are consumer goods, technology, and consumer services, which are up +0.44%. Laggards are utilities, which are up +0.15%, and financials and energy, which are down at least -0.17%.

    This week, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are down -0.46%, -0.27%, -0.47%, and -0.01%, respectively. Last week, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed down -0.35%, -1.17%, -0.83%, and -0.74%, respectively. In June, the Euro Stoxx50 and CAC 40 are up +0.71% and +0.06%, respectively, while the FTSE 100 and DAX are down -1.24% and -0.31%, respectively. In May, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed up +1.44%, +0.95%, +0.72%, +3.54%, respectively.

    In 2014, the indexes are higher. The Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +5.10%, +0.15%, +5.26%, and +3.77%, respectively. In 2013, the indexes closed up +18.0%, +14.4%, +18.0%, and +25.5%, respectively.

    2Q2014 SPX Earnings. SPX 1Q2014 are complete. In 1Q2014, of 499 (of 499) reporting companies, 370 or 74.5% surprised positively on earnings, with an average +5.91% surprise average. Of reporting companies, 263 or 53.0% reported sales or revenues above estimates. The average sales/revenue surprise was +0.20%. Energy led with respective +10.0% and -1.01% earnings and revenue surprises. Financials had a respective +5.67% and +0.26% earnings and revenue surprises. Consumer staples lagged with respective +0.34% and -0.66% earnings and revenue surprises.

    Valuation. The SPX trades at 17.6x estimated 2013 earnings ($110.15), 16.4x estimated 2014 earnings ($118.26), 14.7x estimated 2015 earnings ($131.51), and 13.3x estimated 2016 earnings ($145.84). The 10-year average median price/earnings multiple is 15.9x. Analysts expect 2014, 2015, and 2016 earnings to grow +7.36%, +11.2%, and 10.9%, respectively.

    The KBW Bank Index (BKX) trades at 13.6x 2013 adjusted EPS ($5.16), 13.1x estimated 2014 earnings ($5.34), 11.7x estimated 2015 earnings ($6.00), and 10.5x 2016 earnings ($6.67). Analysts expect 2014, 2015, 2016 EPS will grow +3.52%, +12.3%, and +11.2%, respectively.

    Composite, index, and equity options. Options markets are unchanged at neutral to bullish, compared to neutral to bullish the prior session. Composite options are bullish, index options are bullish, and equity options are neutral. The composite put/call ratio is 0.69, compared to 0.76 the prior day, and better than 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.74 and 0.78, respectively. The index put/call ratio is 0.78, compared to 0.67 the prior day, and worse than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.77 and 0.87, respectively. The equity put/call ratio closed the day at 0.66, compared to 0.83 the prior day, and better than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.73 and 0.75, respectively.

    NYSE Volume, Breadth Indicators. Volume rose +5.09% to 603.66 million shares, compared to 574.43 million shares the prior day, 0.98x the 613.48 million share 20-day moving average. Market breadth was modestly positive, but up volume lagged down volume. Advancing stocks led by +66 (compared to +451 the prior day) or 1.04:1. Up volume was 0.96:1 down volume.

    Libor, LOIS, Currencies, Treasuries, Commodities:

    · USD LIBOR is 0.09400%, compared to 0.09210% the prior day. USD 3-month LIBOR is 0.23100%, down from 0.23060% the prior day, and compares to the January 4, 2013, recent peak of 0.58250%.

    · The US LIBOR-OIS (LOIS) spread is 12.680 bps, compared to 12.810 bps the prior day, and compares to the recent June 12, 2012, 46.785 bps high. Euribor-OIS is 19.300 bps, compared to 19.700 bps the prior day, and down from the December 27, 2011, high of 98.800 bps. Moves in the LOIS indicate changes in intra-bank lending risk premiums.

    · The 3-month Euro basis swap is -12.875 bps, compared to -14.995 bps the prior day, up from a trough of -147.00 bps on December 14, 2011, and within a normal -10 bps and -40 bps range.

    · German 10-year debt yields are 1.37%, compared to 1.35% the prior day.

    · Japanese 10-year debt yields are 0.60%, compared to 0.60% the prior day.

    · Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields fell. Spanish 10-year debt yields are 2.70%, compared to 2.67% the prior day, modestly above the U.S. 10-year yield and compares to its 2.575% June 9th low. Italian 10-year debt yields are at 2.81%, compared to 2.79% the prior day and their June 9th 2.704% recent low. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt years peaked at 7.62% and 7.26%, respectively, in July 2012 and November 2011.

    · U.S. Treasury yields are modestly mixed, with 2- and 10-year maturities yielding 0.472% and 2.593%, respectively, compared to 0.468% and 2.597% Friday. The yield curve narrowed -0.780 bps, with the 2- to 10-year spread at 2.122%, compared to 2.130% the prior day. In the past year, the 2- and 10-year spread varied from a low of +1.429% on May 1, 2013, to a high of +2.648% on December 31, 2013.

    · The U.S. dollar is mixed, stronger compared to the euro and Japanese yen, but weaker compared to the British pound. The dollar trades at US$80.487, compared to US$80.556 intraday high and US$80.471 the prior day, and better compared to its $80.035 50-day, US$80.119 100-day, and US$80.297 200-day averages. The euro trades at US$1.3567, compared to a US$1.3587 intraday high and US$1.3574 the prior day. The euro trades worse compared to its US$1.3729 50-day and US$1.3734 100-day averages, and compares to a multi-year low of US$1.1877 on June 7, 2010. In Japan, the dollar trades at ¥101.98, compared to ¥101.83 the prior day. The yen trades better than its 50-day moving average ¥102.06, and better than its January 1st 105.31 closing low, its weakest prior multi-year closing low.

    · Citigroup Economic Surprise Index improves to -15.40, compared to -19.50 the prior day, its 11th consecutive negative reading. The index is worse compared to its respective -15.74 5-day and -13.47 10-day moving averages. From a +72.70 high on January 15th, the index subsequently trended lower and turned negative on February 19th and fell to a -45.90 124-week low on April 7th . After a lag, the CESIUSD correlates with EPS revisions.

    · Commodities prices are mostly lower, with lower energy, lower precious metals, higher aluminum and copper, and mostly lower agriculture prices.

    Volatility, Skew:

    · The CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX) rose +3.86% to 12.65, compared to 12.18 at the prior close. The VIX is +7.24% above the 11.80 20-day moving average. Its 30-day high is 14.49. Its 30-day low is 10.73. Its all-time closing low is 9.31 on December 22, 1993. The long-term average is 20.00.

    · The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index (V2X) is 15.29, down -0.56% compared to 15.37 at the prior day's close. The V2X index trades +2.16% above its 14.96 20-day moving average, -19.9% below the 19.09 30-day high, and +17.8% above the 12.98 30-day low.

    · The Hang Seng volatility index (VHSI) closed at 12.73, down -3.78% compared to 13.23 at the prior close. The VHSI index trades -10.2% below its 14.15 20-day moving average. Its lowest historical close was 11.72, on June 30, 2005.

    · CBOE SKEW (SKEW) fell -0.09% to 127.67, compared to 127.78 the prior session, above a neutral reading (115-120), but below 130, a level that correlates with short-term market tops. The recent record high was 143.20 on December 20, 2013. Its recent low was 112.47 on May 25, 2013. Spikes in excess of 130 correlate well with short-term market tops, though not in October or November. The index rarely falls below 110, last on July 31, 2009. The index correlates with market tail risks, the cost of buying out-of-the-money, long-dated options, i.e., options not affected by expirations. A rise suggests that investors are buying more puts than calls, a bearish signal.

    U.S. Economic Reporting and News:
     

    • At 8:30, May MoM CPI rose +0.4%, compared to +0.2% survey and +0.3% prior.
    • MoM CPI ex-food and energy rose +0.3%, compared to +0.2% survey and prior.
    • May MoM housing starts fell -6.5%, compared to -3.9% survey and +12.7% revised prior.
    • May MoM building permits fell -6.4%, compared to -0.9% survey and +5.9% revised prior.
    • FOMC 2-day meeting begins with decision report at 2:00 pm tomorrow, followed by Yellen news conference.


    Overseas Economic Reporting and News:
     

    • Japan - May final YoY machine tool orders rose +24.1%, compared to +24.1% prior.
    • Eurozone - June ZEW survey expectations were 58.4, compared to 55.2 prior. YoY 1Q2014 labor costs rose +0.9%, compared to +1.6% revised prior.
    • Germany - June current situation was 67.7, compared to 62.1 survey and prior.
    • Spain - 1Q2014 YoY labor costs fell -0.2%, compared to +2.1% prior.
    • United Kingdom - MoM May CPI fell -0.1%, compared to +0.2% survey and +0.4% prior.


    Company Ratings/News:
     

    • None.


    Friday's Trade. On greater, but below average NYSE volume, major U.S. equity indexes rose moderately. The SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite rose +0.08%, +0.03%, +0.24%, and +0.06%, respectively. The SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are at least +1.23% higher in 2014. Market breadth was modestly positive, with gainers 1.045x losing stocks. Most SPX market segments closed higher. Leaders were utilities, energy, and consumer discretionary, which rose at least +0.34%. Laggards were materials, industrials, and financials, which fell at least -0.15%.

    Other notable indexes closed mixed. The Russell 2000 (RTY) rose +0.36% and closed -3.46% below its March 4th record. The Nasdaq Internet Index (QNET) rose +0.23%, but is in correction, -11.0% below its March 6th closing high. The Nasdaq Biotech Index (NBI) rose +0.31%, down -9.08% from its recent February 25th record high.

    NYSE volume rose +5.09% to 603.66 million shares, compared to 574.43 million shares million shares the prior day, 0.98x the 613.48 million share 20-day moving average volume. Bond markets strengthened. The U.S. 10-year yield opened at 2.5997%, strengthened to a mid-morning 2.5744% intraday low, then weakened and rose to the session's 2.6105% intraday high. At the close, the yield fell -0.63 bps to 2.5970%, compared to 2.6033% at the prior close.

    From its prior day 1930.11 SPX close, June 2014 SPX futures (SPM4) suggested a modestly lower open. In early trading, the index traded to its 1930.91 intraday low, but then immediately reversed higher to the 1941.15 intraday high. The index reversed lower by mid-session, but found support at 1932 and improved to breakeven in early afternoon and traded around 1936 through the close. The index closed at 1937.78, +80.3% above the 1074.77 October 4, 2011, intraday low, the bottom of the most recent correction.

    From its prior day 8,042.85 close, the DJ Transportation index (TRAN) fell -0.25%, compared to the DJI's +0.03% gain. The TRAN fell to 8,010 in early trading, the index reversed higher by mid-morning, when it set its 8,054.08 intraday high. The index reversed lower to the late morning 8,004.50 intraday low. A mid-afternoon rally attempt failed, and the index eased through the final two hours. The index closed at 8,023.09, -2.34% below its June 9th 8,214.99 record close. Volume fell -3.84% to 12.414 million shares, compared to 12.910 million shares the prior session, and 0.99x the 15-day moving average volume. The TRAN closed -0.40% below and +2.72% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +5.59% and +10.1% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving averages.

    Market volatility rose +3.86%, as the CBOE SPX volatility index (VIX) closed at 12.65, compared to 12.18 at the prior close. In early trading, the index fell to the 12.28 intraday low, then rose to the 12.87 intraday high by late morning. The index traded narrowly around 12.60 through the close. The VIX's all-time closing low is 9.31, on December 22, 1993. Its record high is 89.53 in December 2008. Its lifetime average is 20.01. The CBOE put/call SKEW fell -0.09% to 127.67, compared to 127.78 the prior session, above a neutral 115-120 range, but below 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops.

    The market's technical factors were little changed. The SPX relative strength (RSI) rose to 62.02, compared to 61.36 the prior day, in a neutral range, down from an overbought 73.73 on June 9th, but far better than an oversold 31.24 on February 3rd. The RSI compared to an overbought 71.26 on December 31st, when the SPX closed at an earlier record high, and compares to earlier oversold levels of 35.14 on August 27th and 39.19 on October 9th.

    Last week, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed down -0.68%, -0.88%, -0.25%, and -0.44%, respectively. The prior week, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +1.34%, +1.24%, +1.86%, and +1.38%, respectively. In June, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +0.74%, +0.38%, +1.85%, and +0.99%, respectively, compared to May, when the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +2.10%, +0.82%, +3.11%, and +1.22%, respectively.

    In 2014, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +4.84%, +1.23%, +3.461%, and +4.45%, respectively. In 2013, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +29.6%, +26.5%, +38.2%, +23.2%, respectively. All closed at least +5.91% higher in 2012.

    KBW Bank Index (BKX). On lower and below average volume, the BKX fell -0.71% to 70.21, compared to 70.71 at the prior day's close, its 8th consecutive close above 70, but -3.70% below its 72.91 March 20th post-2008 closing high. The index fell to a 70.21 in early trading, then traded narrowly to the close, with a mid-afternoon 70.03. Volume fell -14.6% to 38.093 million shares, compared to 44.620 million shares the prior day, and 0.97x the 39.284 million share 15-day moving average.

    Large cap banks outperformed the regional banks, as the KBW regional banking index (KRX) fell -0.72%.

    Last week, the BKX closed off -0.16%, compared to last week, when the BKX closed up +2.77%. In June, the BKX is up +1.89%, compared to May, when the BKX closed up +2.77%. In 2014, the BKX is up +1.37%, compared to the SPX's +4.84% gain. In 2013, the BKX rose +35.1%, better than the SPX's +29.6% rise.

    The BKX is now +18.6% better than the June 24, 2013, 59.19 close, its worst since May 13, 2013. The index crossed above 50 on December 17, 2012, 60 on May 15, 2013, and 70 on January 8, 2014, but then dropped back below 70 on January 24th, which persisted until March 6th. On April 10th, the BKX fell below 70.00 and then eased consistently to the May 15th 66.81 closing low, its lowest close since early February. The BKX closed +115.6% above the 32.56 intraday low on October 4, 2011, the bottom of that year's correction. Large-cap bank stocks have outperformed the broader market's rebound, with the SPX up +80.3% in the same period.

    The BKX index closed -42.0% below its February 20, 2007, record 121.06 high. The BKX is up +277.1% from its 18.62 March 6, 2009, closing low, its low during the 2008-09 financial panic.

    Technical indicators were little changed. The index closed +1.10% and +1.71% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +1.31% and +3.86% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving average. The 20-day moving average rose +17 bps to 69.45. The 69.03 50-day moving average fell -5 bps. Its 69.30 100-day moving average fell -1 bp, and the 200-day moving average rose +4 bps to 67.60. The 20-day closed (by +0.42 points) above the 50-day, and the gap widened +22 bps. The 50-day moving average closed (by +1.43 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap narrowed -9 bps. The 100-day moving average closed (by +1.70 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap fell -5 bps.

    The directional movement indicator narrowed to +7.651, compared to +12.963 the prior day, its 15th consecutive positive reading. Relative strength fell to 55.20, compared to 60.28 the prior day, in a neutral range, but down from an overbought 73.14 on June 9th and up from the recent 32.95 low on February 3rd. The lowest RSI level was 31.08 on November 14, 2012, which is also the date of the BKX's 2012 closing low. Next resistance is 70.56; next support is 69.95.

    SPX, DJI, RTY, TRAN, CCMP, NYA, VIX, SKEW, NKY, EURUSD, USGG10YR, HSI, SHCOMP, SX5E, CAC, DAX, FTSE, JPY, GBP, EUR

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