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Gary Townsend - Since 2007, a founding partner, CEO and Portfolio Manager of Hill-Townsend Capital LLC, a long/short equity financial sector fund based in Chevy Chase, Maryland. Mr. Townsend has 30 years banking, regulatory, and investment experience. He started his business career in 1978, as... More
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  • U.S. Futures Unchanged Ahead Of FOMC; Asia Mixed, Europe Budges Higher 0 comments
    Jun 18, 2014 8:59 AM | about stocks: FDX, ADBE

    This morning. U.S. equity futures are largely unchanged and in the middle of their trading range. This morning's economic reporting is light, though 1Q2014 current account was worse than expected and suggestive that 1Q2014 GDP may be further reduced. Market focus is squarely on the 2:00 FOMC report, followed by Yellen's press conference at 2:30. The market outlook is "confirmed uptrend". In Asia, equity markets closed mixed, where Japan closed at intraday highs, while China fell and closed near intraday lows. In early afternoon, European bourses are modestly higher, but off their intraday highs. The euro is slightly stronger compared to the dollar. U.S. Treasury 10-year yields are lower at 2.6278%. Commodities are mostly higher. Thursday's Nikkei 225 June 2014 (NKM4) equity futures are modestly higher.

    Tuesday, on lower and below average volume, major U.S. indexes rose modestly. The S&P 500 index (SPX), DJ Industrial index (Private:DJI), Nasdaq, and NYSE composite rose +0.22%, +0.16%, +0.37%, and +0.21%, respectively. This week, all are at least +0.20% higher. In June, indexes are up least +0.55%. In 2014, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are +5.07%, +1.40%, +3.85%, and +4.67% higher in 2014, respectively. NYSE volume fell -0.60% to 0.98x its 20-day moving average.

    Other notable indexes were mixed. The DJ Transports (TRAN) rose +0.41%. The Russell 2000 (RTY) rose +0.84% to close -2.65% below early March highs. The Nasdaq Internet (QNET) index rose +0.63%, but the Nasdaq Biotech (NBI) index fell -0.26%. The QNET is in correction, down -10.4%, while the NBI closed -9.31% from its recent high.

    Trading desks report another quiet overnight, as various economic reports left the overarching narrative unchanged. Regarding Tuesday's trade, markets feel tired, though individual sectors (notably financials) performed well. Relative strength indicators are within a neutral range. Traders expect an uncontroversial FOMC meeting as economic trends have tracked the last statement's (April 30th) expectations, with another $10 billion taper, a conclusion of quantitative easing by year-end and no increase in the Fed Funds rate before mid-next year.

    The 2Q2014 earnings seasons began today with a positive earnings reports from Adobe Systems (ABDE) and Federal Express (NYSE:FDX). In 1Q2014, 499 of 499 SPX companies reported with respective +5.91% EPS and +0.20% revenue surprises. Forward estimates moved up. Compared to February 28th, the May-end 2014 EPS estimate rose +0.39% to $118.20, from $117.74. Respective estimates for 20014, 2015 and 2016 are now $118.24, $131.52 and $145.92, respectively compared to $117.74, $130.81 and $144.98 at February-end, respective increases of +0.42%, +0.52% and +0.62%. Price earnings multiples remain elevated. With SPX equities trading at a 17.6x (compared to 17.6x the prior day) 2013 earnings multiple, attention focuses on 2014 earnings and valuations (17.6x times survey $118.24 2014 SPX operating earnings suggests a 2084.56 SPX level in the next year, a +7.34% rise from yesterday's close).

    Technicals were little changed. Led by financials, SPX market segments closed mixed. Market breadth was positive, and up volume lagged down volume. Volatility fell to levels near the lower end of historical ranges. Treasury bond markets weakened. On the day, the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond yield rose +5.53 bps to 2.6523%, compared to 2.5970% at the prior close.

    This morning, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are down -2.45 bps at 2.6278%, compared to 2.6523% at the prior close. World sovereign bond markets are modestly mixed. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields are 2.73% and +2.82%, respectively, compared to 2.71% and +2.82% the prior day.

    U.S. options markets were unchanged at neutral to bullish, compared to neutral to bullish the prior day. The CBOE SKEW rose and closed at 130.18, above 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops.

    In pre-market futures trading, June SPX equity futures (SPM4) price near the middle of a 1932-1936 trading range. After a fair value adjustment of -0.16 points, the SPM4 future prices at 1933.50, down -0.05 points. The SPX opens +0.94% and +2.68% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +4.15% and +7.12% above its 200-day moving averages. Initial resistance is 1945.94. Initial support is 1935.80, then 1929.60.

    "Confirmed Uptrend" Market Outlook and Distribution Day Count. On May 27th , the market outlook improved to "confirmed uptrend", ending a period of market "in correction" that began on April 4th. The SPX closed June 9th at a record 1951.27, +7.47% above the 1815.69 close on April 11th, the low close. On March 5, 2014, the Nasdaq peaked at a multi-year 4,357.97 high (compared to its 4,572.83 March 31, 2000 record close), then fell -8.22% to 3,999.73 before recovering +8.46% to the June 10th 4,338.00 close. Since May 27th, there was one distribution on the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite.

    In Asia, equity markets closed mixed, with Japan closing near its intraday high, while China closed near intraday lows. The Nikkei 225 (NYSEARCA:NKY) rose +0.93%. The Hang Seng (HSI) Index fell -0.09%, and the Shanghai SE (SHCOMP) fell -0.54%. The NKY, HSI, and SHCOMP 50-day moving averages are below their respective 200-day moving averages. Today's volumes are unavailable.

    Asian economic commentary focused on today's expected FOMC report.

    This week, the NKY is up +0.12%, while the HSI and SHCOMP are down -0.59% and -0.73%, respectively. Last week, the NKY closed up +0.14%, the HSI rose +1.60%, and the SHCOMP rose +2.01%. In June, the NKY is up +3.30%, the HSI is up +0.43%, and the SHCOMP is up +0.80%. In May, the NKY closed up +2.29%, the HSI rose +4.28%, and the SHCOMP rose +0.63%.

    In 2014, the NKY is down -7.22%, the HSI is down -0.53%. The SHCOMP is down -2.86%. In 2013, the NKY rose +56.7%. The HSI closed up +2.87%. The SHCOMP closed down -6.75%.

    In China, short-term interbank lending rates remain volatile, as the SHIBO 7-day rate rose +4 bps to 3.07%, compared to 3.03% the prior day, up from a 2.26% low on March 11th, but down from the February 7th 5.41% recent high.

    Regional relative strength indexes (RSI) show Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Shanghai in neutral ranges. The NKY RSI ended at 61.98, compared to 57.81 the prior day, up from an oversold 27.92 on February 4th, the most recent prior yearly low. The HSI RSI fell to 57.12, compared to 57.97 the prior day. The SHCOMP's RSI fell to 52.72, compared to 56.70 the prior session. On June 27, 2013, the index's RSI fell to a low of 15.27, which was also last year's low index close.

    In Japan, the NKY closed at 15,115.80, compared to 14,975.97 the prior day, -7.22% below its recent year-end 16,291.31 high and -61.2% below its late-1989 38,915.87 high close. The index rallied through the session, with greater strength in the afternoon, to a late 15,139.99 intraday high. Most market segments closed higher. Leaders were telecommunications, industrials, and materials, which rose at least +1.04%. Financials rose +0.87%. Laggards were utilities and consumer staples, which rose at least +0.11%, and energy, which fell -0.05%.

    In China, the HSI closed at 23,181.72, compared to 23,203.59 at the prior close. The index traded narrowly around breakeven until mid-afternoon, when it rallied to the 23,299.36 intraday high, then reversed lower in the final hour. Market segments closed mixed. Leaders were energy, technology, and telecommunications, which rose at least +0.30%. Financials fell -0.15%. Laggards were industrials, consumer discretionary, and consumer staples, which fell at least -0.73%. The index closed -3.05% below its recent December 3rd 23,910.47 high, but +27.6% above its 18,185.59 June 4, 2012 low.

    In Shanghai, the SHCOMP closed at 2,055.52, compared to 2,066.70 at the prior close, +5.41% above the 1,950.01 June 27, 2013 close, last year's low. The index set an early 2,066.70 intraday high, then fell through early afternoon to the 2,051.80 intraday low. Most market segments closed lower. Leaders were telecommunications, which rose +0.44%, and materials and health care, which fell at least -0.04%. Laggards were consumer discretionary, industrials, and financials, which fell at least -0.69%.

    In Europe, equities opened higher, traded to mid-morning highs, but then eased to modest gains in early afternoon. The Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +0.16%, +0.36%, +0.03%, and +0.23%, respectively. The Spanish IBEX 35 is up +0.30%. The Italian FTSE MIB is down -0.05%.

    Economic reporting is light. The euro is slightly stronger compared to the dollar.

    European bourses have recently outperformed U.S. equity indexes. Intraday Euro Stoxx50 relative strength (RSI) is 59.80, compared to 58.64 at the prior close, in a neutral (30-70) range, better than its recent February 5th 33.57 low, which coincided with its 2014 low. The indexes lowest recent RSI level was 25.77 on June 24th, which marked the 2013 2,494.54 closing low.

    The Euro Stoxx50 trades -37.5% below its 5,249.55 March 31, 2000, all-time closing high. From its prior day 3,275.33 close, the index rallied to a late morning 3,289.09 intraday high, then eased back to 3,280 in early afternoon. The index currently trades at 3,280.70. Most market segments are higher. Leaders are information, energy, and utilities, which are up at least +0.61%. Laggards are financials, materials, and consumer staples, which are down at least -0.14%.

    This week, the Euro Stoxx50 and CAC 40 are down -0.07% and -0.13%, respectively, while the FTSE 100 and DAX are up +0.18% and +0.30%. Last week, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed down -0.35%, -1.17%, -0.83%, and -0.74%, respectively. In June, the Euro Stoxx50 and CAC 40 are up +1.10% and +0.39%, respectively, while the FTSE 100 and DAX are down -0.79% and -0.01%, respectively. In May, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed up +1.44%, +0.95%, +0.72%, +3.54%, respectively.

    In 2014, the indexes are higher. The Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +5.51%, +0.61%, +5.62%, and +4.09%, respectively. In 2013, the indexes closed up +18.0%, +14.4%, +18.0%, and +25.5%, respectively.

    2Q2014 SPX Earnings. The 2nd quarter earnings season began today, 2 of 499 SPX reporting firms have reported, with respective +7.85% EPS and +1.44% revenue surprises.

    In 1Q2014, of 499 (of 499) reporting companies, 370 or 74.5% surprised positively on earnings, with an average +5.91% surprise average. Of reporting companies, 263 or 53.0% reported sales or revenues above estimates. The average sales/revenue surprise was +0.20%. Energy led with respective +10.0% and -1.01% earnings and revenue surprises. Financials had a respective +5.67% and +0.26% earnings and revenue surprises. Consumer staples lagged with respective +0.34% and -0.66% earnings and revenue surprises.

    Valuation. The SPX trades at 17.6x estimated 2013 earnings ($110.15), 16.4x estimated 2014 earnings ($118.24), 14.8x estimated 2015 earnings ($131.52), and 13.3x estimated 2016 earnings ($145.92). The 10-year average median price/earnings multiple is 15.9x. Analysts expect 2014, 2015, and 2016 earnings to grow +7.34%, +11.2%, and 11.0%, respectively.

    The KBW Bank Index (BKX) trades at 13.8x 2013 adjusted EPS ($5.16), 13.3x estimated 2014 earnings ($5.34), 11.9x estimated 2015 earnings ($6.00), and 10.6x 2016 earnings ($6.67). Analysts expect 2014, 2015, 2016 EPS will grow +3.40%, +12.4%, and +11.4%, respectively.

    Composite, index, and equity options. Options markets are unchanged at neutral to bullish, compared to neutral to bullish the prior session. Composite options are bullish, index options are bullish, and equity options are neutral. The composite put/call ratio is 0.81, compared to 0.69 the prior day, and worse than 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.76 and 0.77, respectively. The index put/call ratio is 0.93, compared to 0.78 the prior day, and worse than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.80 and 0.82, respectively. The equity put/call ratio closed the day at 0.74, compared to 0.66 the prior day, and better than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.75 and 0.75, respectively.

    NYSE Volume, Breadth Indicators. Volume fell -0.60% to 600.05 million shares, compared to 603.66 million shares the prior day, 0.98x the 614.26 million share 20-day moving average. Market breadth was positive, and up volume led down volume. Advancing stocks led by +754 (compared to +66 the prior day) or 1.66:1. Up volume was 2.02:1 down volume.

    Libor, LOIS, Currencies, Treasuries, Commodities:

    · USD LIBOR is 0.09600%, compared to 0.09400% the prior day. USD 3-month LIBOR is 0.23100%, down from 0.23100% the prior day, and compares to the January 4, 2013, recent peak of 0.58250%.

    · The US LIBOR-OIS (LOIS) spread is 12.600 bps, compared to 12.400 bps the prior day, and compares to the recent June 12, 2012, 46.785 bps high. Euribor-OIS is 16.950 bps, compared to 19.300 bps the prior day, and down from the December 27, 2011, high of 98.800 bps. Moves in the LOIS indicate changes in intra-bank lending risk premiums.

    · The 3-month Euro basis swap is -12.618 bps, compared to -12.958 bps the prior day, up from a trough of -147.00 bps on December 14, 2011, and within a normal -10 bps and -40 bps range.

    · German 10-year debt yields are 1.39%, compared to 1.40% the prior day.

    · Japanese 10-year debt yields are 0.60%, compared to 0.60% the prior day.

    · Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields rose. Spanish 10-year debt yields are 2.74%, compared to 2.71% the prior day, modestly above the U.S. 10-year yield and compares to its 2.575% June 9th low. Italian 10-year debt yields are at 2.83%, compared to 2.82% the prior day and their June 9th 2.704% recent low. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt years peaked at 7.62% and 7.26%, respectively, in July 2012 and November 2011.

    · U.S. Treasury yields are modestly lower, with 2- and 10-year maturities yielding 0.472% and 2.639%, respectively, compared to 0.480% and 2.652% Tuesday. The yield curve narrowed -0.570 bps, with the 2- to 10-year spread at 2.167%, compared to 2.173% the prior day. In the past year, the 2- and 10-year spread varied from a low of +1.429% on May 1, 2013, to a high of +2.648% on December 31, 2013.

    · The U.S. dollar is mixed, stronger compared to the Japanese yen, but weaker compared to the euro and British pound. The dollar trades at US$80.545, compared to US$80.528 intraday low and US$80.629 the prior day, and better compared to its $80.060 50-day, US$80.121 100-day, and US$80.292 200-day averages. The euro trades at US$1.3567, compared to a US$1.3571 intraday high and US$1.3574 the prior day. The euro trades worse compared to its US$1.3723 50-day and US$1.3733 100-day averages, and compares to a multi-year low of US$1.1877 on June 7, 2010. In Japan, the dollar trades at ¥102.18, compared to ¥102.15 the prior day. The yen trades worse than its 50-day moving average ¥102.07, and better than its January 1st 105.31 closing low, its weakest prior multi-year closing low.

    · Citigroup Economic Surprise Index improved to -11.60, compared to -15.40 the prior day, its 12th consecutive negative reading. The index is worse compared to its respective -15.42 5-day and -14.42 10-day moving averages. From a +72.70 high on January 15th, the index subsequently trended lower and turned negative on February 19th and fell to a -45.90 124-week low on April 7th . After a lag, the CESIUSD correlates with EPS revisions.

    · Commodities prices are mostly higher, with higher energy, higher precious metals, mixed aluminum and copper, and mostly higher agriculture prices.

    Volatility, Skew:

    · The CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX) fell -4.66% to 12.06, compared to 12.65 at the prior close. The VIX is +2.40% above the 11.78 20-day moving average. Its 30-day high is 14.49. Its 30-day low is 10.73. Its all-time closing low is 9.31 on December 22, 1993. The long-term average is 20.00.

    · The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index (V2X) is 13.58, down -5.27% compared to 14.34 at the prior day's close. The V2X index trades -8.79% below its 14.89 20-day moving average, -23.7% below the 17.80 30-day high, and +4.67% above the 12.98 30-day low.

    · The Hang Seng volatility index (VHSI) closed at 12.57, down -1.26% compared to 12.73 at the prior close. The VHSI index trades -10.3% below its 14.02 20-day moving average. Its lowest historical close was 11.72, on June 30, 2005.

    · CBOE SKEW (SKEW) rose +1.97% to 130.18, compared to 127.67 the prior session, above a neutral reading (115-120), and above 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops. The recent record high was 143.20 on December 20, 2013. Its recent low was 112.47 on May 25, 2013. Spikes in excess of 130 correlate well with short-term market tops, though not in October or November. The index rarely falls below 110, last on July 31, 2009. The index correlates with market tail risks, the cost of buying out-of-the-money, long-dated options, i.e., options not affected by expirations. A rise suggests that investors are buying more puts than calls, a bearish signal.

    U.S. Economic Reporting and News:

    • At 7:00, the latest week's MBA mortgage applications fell -9.2%, compared to +10.3% prior.
    • At 8:30, 1Q2014 current account was -$111.2 billion, compared to -$97.0 billion survey and -$87.3 billion revised prior.
    • At 2:00, Fed QE3 pace, with $35 billion survey and $45 billion prior, with $20 billion Treasury and $15 billion MBS purchases.
    • FOMC rate decision, with +0.25% survey and prior.

    Overseas Economic Reporting and News:

    • Japan - May YoY department store sales fell -4.2%, compared to -12.0% prior.
    • Eurozone - April MoM construction output rose +0.8%, compared to -0.3% revised prior. YoY output rose +8.0%, compared to +6.4% revised prior.
    • Portugal - May MoM PPI was unchanged, with +0.1% prior. YoY PPI fell -0.5%, compared to -0.6% prior.
    • United Kingdom - Bank of England suggests that a 2014 rate increase is more likely than predicted.

    Company Ratings/News:

    • ADBE - Reported adjusted EPS of $0.37, compared to $0.298 survey, and $1.068 billion revenues, compared to $1.027 billion survey.
    • FDX - Reported adjusted EPS of $2.460, compared to $2.358 survey, and $11.80 billion revenues, compared to $11.658 billion survey.

    Tuesday's Trade. On lower and below average NYSE volume, major U.S. equity indexes rose moderately. The SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite rose +0.22%, +0.16%, +0.37%, and +0.21%, respectively. The SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are at least +1.40% higher in 2014. Market breadth was positive, with gainers 1.66x losing stocks. SPX market segments closed mixed. Leaders were financials, consumer discretionary, and industrials, which rose at least +0.24%. Laggards were telecommunications, energy, and utilities, which fell at least -0.10%.

    Other notable indexes closed mixed. The Russell 2000 (RTY) rose +0.84% and closed -2.65% below its March 4th record. The Nasdaq Internet Index (QNET) rose +0.63%, but is in correction, -10.4% below its March 6th closing high. The Nasdaq Biotech Index (NBI) fell -0.26%, down -9.31% from its recent February 25th record high.

    NYSE volume fell -0.60% to 60.05 million shares, compared to 603.66 million shares the prior day, 0.98x the 614.26 million share 20-day moving average volume. Bond markets weakened. The U.S. 10-year yield opened at 2.5961%, and strengthened after stronger than expected CPI reports and rose through the session to a late 2.6550%. At the close, the yield rose +5.53 bps to 2.6523%, compared to 2.5970% at the prior close.

    From its prior day 1937.78 SPX close, June 2014 SPX futures (SPM4) suggested a moderately lower open. In early trading, the index fell to its 1933.55 intraday low, but reversed higher late in the morning session and rose to a mid-afternoon 1943.69 intraday high. The index closed at 1941.99, +80.7% above the 1074.77 October 4, 2011, intraday low, the bottom of the most recent correction.

    From its prior day 8,042.85 close, the DJ Transportation index (TRAN) rose +0.41%, compared to the DJI's +0.16% gain. The TRAN fell to 7,990.52 in early trading, but the index reversed higher before 10:00 and rose to an early afternoon 8,079.16 intraday high. The index eased through the final 3 hours. The index closed at 8,056.30, -1.93% below its June 9th 8,214.99 record close. Volume fell -11.6% to 10.978 million shares, compared to 12.414 million shares the prior session, and 0.87x the 15-day moving average volume. The TRAN closed -0.08% below and +3.02% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +5.95% and +10.5% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving averages.

    Market volatility fell -4.66%, as the CBOE SPX volatility index (VIX) closed at 12.06, compared to 12.65 at the prior close. In early trading, the index set its 12.89 intraday high, then trended lower after mid-morning to its closing intraday low. The VIX's all-time closing low is 9.31, on December 22, 1993. Its record high is 89.53 in December 2008. Its lifetime average is 20.01. The CBOE put/call SKEW rose +1.97% to 130.18, compared to 127.67 the prior session, above a neutral 115-120 range, but below 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops.

    The market's technical factors were little changed. The SPX relative strength (RSI) rose to 63.74, compared to 62.02 the prior day, in a neutral range, down from an overbought 73.73 on June 9th, but better than 58.90 on June 12th, and an oversold 31.24 on February 3rd. The RSI compares to an overbought 71.26 on December 31st, when the SPX closed at an earlier record high, and compares to earlier oversold levels of 35.14 on August 27th and 39.19 on October 9th.

    This week, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +0.30%, +0.20%, +0.62%, and +0.21%, respectively. Last week, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed down -0.68%, -0.88%, -0.25%, and -0.44%, respectively. In June, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +0.96%, +0.55%, +2.23%, and +0.21%, respectively, compared to May, when the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +2.10%, +0.82%, +3.11%, and +1.22%, respectively.

    In 2014, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +5.07%, +1.40%, +3.85%, and +4.67%, respectively. In 2013, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +29.6%, +26.5%, +38.2%, +23.2%, respectively. All closed at least +5.91% higher in 2012.

    KBW Bank Index (BKX). On greater and above average volume, the BKX rose +1.25% to 71.09, compared to 70.21 at the prior day's close, its 9th consecutive close above 70, but -2.50% below its 72.91 March 20th post-2008 closing high. The index set an early 70.08 intraday low, but immediately reversed higher and rose to an early afternoon 71.34 intraday high. The index traded narrowly to the close. Volume rose +7.16% to 40.820 million shares, compared to 38.093 million shares the prior day, and 1.07x the 38.191 million share 15-day moving average.

    Large cap banks outperformed the regional banks, as the KBW regional banking index (KRX) rose +1.89%.

    This week, the BKX is up +0.54%. Last week, the BKX closed off -0.16%. In June, the BKX is up +3.16%, compared to May, when the BKX closed up +2.77%. In 2014, the BKX is up +2.64%, compared to the SPX's +5.07% gain. In 2013, the BKX rose +35.1%, better than the SPX's +29.6% rise.

    The BKX is now +20.1% better than the June 24, 2013, 59.19 close, its worst since May 13, 2013. The index crossed above 50 on December 17, 2012, 60 on May 15, 2013, and 70 on January 8, 2014, but then dropped back below 70 on January 24th, which persisted until March 6th. On April 10th, the BKX fell below 70.00 and then eased consistently to the May 15th 66.81 closing low, its lowest close since early February. The BKX closed +118.3% above the 32.56 intraday low on October 4, 2011, the bottom of that year's correction. Large-cap bank stocks have outperformed the broader market's rebound, with the SPX up +80.7% in the same period.

    The BKX index closed -41.8% below its February 20, 2007, record 121.06 high. The BKX is up +281.8% from its 18.62 March 6, 2009, closing low, its low during the 2008-09 financial panic.

    Technical indicators were little changed. The index closed +2.10% and +3.00% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +2.57% and +5.10% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving average. The 20-day moving average rose +18 bps to 69.63. The 69.02 50-day moving average fell -1 bp. Its 69.31 100-day moving average rose +1 bp, and the 200-day moving average rose +4 bps to 67.64. The 20-day closed (by +0.61 points) above the 50-day, and the gap widened +19 bps. The 50-day moving average closed (by +1.38 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap narrowed -5 bps. The 100-day moving average closed (by +1.67 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap fell -3 bps.

    The directional movement indicator widened to +13.130, compared to +7.651 the prior day, its 16th consecutive positive reading. Relative strength rose to 61.37, compared to 51.20 the prior day, in a neutral range, but down from an overbought 73.14 on June 9th and up from the recent 32.95 low on February 3rd. The lowest RSI level was 31.08 on November 14, 2012, which is also the date of the BKX's 2012 closing low. Next resistance is 71.59; next support is 70.33.

    SPX, DJI, RTY, TRAN, CCMP, NYA, VIX, SKEW, NKY, EURUSD, USGG10YR, HSI, SHCOMP, SX5E, CAC, DAX, FTSE, JPY, GBP, EUR

    Stocks: FDX, ADBE
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