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Gary Townsend - Founding member and Chairman, GBT Capital Management, LLC, a macro long/short fund based in Chevy Chase, Maryland. Also, 2007-2013, a founding partner, CEO and Portfolio Manager of Hill-Townsend Capital LLC, a long/short equity financial sector fund. Mr. Townsend has 35 years... More
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  • U.S Bank Earnings Surprise Positively; Asia Up Modestly, While Europe Moves Lower  0 comments
    Jul 15, 2014 8:56 AM | about stocks: CMA, GS, JPM

    This morning. Since July 8, the market outlook is "uptrend under pressure", with 3 distributions in the past 6 sessions. Today, U.S. equity futures are modestly higher and near the top of their pre-market range. U.S. bank earnings continue with a better than expected 2Q2014 earnings report from JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM), Goldman Sachs, and Comerica (NYSE:CMA), which all beat EPS and revenues estimates. In Asia, equities closed higher. In Europe, equities are moderately weaker, with somewhat greater weakness in Madrid and Milan. The dollar is mixed. The U.S. Treasury 10-year yields are higher. Commodities are mixed. Wednesday's Nikkei 225 September 2014 (NKU4) equity futures are modestly lower.

    Monday, on better, but below average volume, major U.S. indexes rallied in early trading, then traded narrowly to their moderately higher close. The S&P 500 Index (SPX), DJ Industrials (DJI), Nasdaq, and NYSE composite rose +0.48%, +0.66%, +0.56%, and +0.50%, respectively. Last week, major indexes closed off at least -0.73%, led by the Nasdaq, which was down -1.57%. In July, indexes are at least +0.11% higher. In 2014, the SPX, DJI, and Nasdaq are up +6.97%, +2.89%, +6.32%, and +5.68% higher, respectively.

    NYSE volume rose +1.65% to 0.82x its 20-day moving average.

    Other notable indexes were also mixed. The DJ Transports (TRAN) rose +0.71% and closed at a new record high. The Russell 2000 (RTY) rose +0.49%. The Nasdaq Internet (QNET) index rose +1.17%, and the Nasdaq Biotech (NBI) index rose +0.35%. The QNET is down -8.31%, from recent highs, while the NBI closed -5.44% below its recent high.

    Trading desks note mixed global equity markets, though without any notable underperformers. Focus is on this morning's Yellen Congressional testimony. Regarding yesterday's trade, equities rebounded but all the day's action was over by 10:00. Desk flows were quiet after the open, when shorts covered. The equity bias appears higher, with expectations that gains will become more difficult, compared to the recent linear move higher. Conviction remains low, and the equity uptrend remains under pressure.

    The 2Q2014 earnings seasons began June 18th, and now 31 of 500 SPX companies have reported with respective +8.40% and +2.26% adjusted EPS and revenues surprises. In 1Q2014, 499 of 499 SPX companies reported with respective +5.91% EPS and +0.20% revenue surprises. Forward estimates moved up. Respective estimates for 2014, 2015 and 2016 are now $118.59, $132.30, and $146.49, respectively compared to $117.20, $130.50 and $144.96 at March-end, respective increases of +1.19%, +1.38% and +1.05%. Price earnings multiples remain elevated. With SPX equities trading at a 17.3x (compared to 17.2x the prior day) average 2014-15 earnings ($125.45), attention focuses on 2014-15 earnings and valuations (17.3x times survey 2014-15 SPX average operating earnings suggests a 2171.51 SPX level in the next year, a +9.83% rise from yesterday's close).

    Technicals were little changed. Most SPX market segments closed higher. Market breadth was modestly positive, and up volume led down volume. Volatility fell and remains well below average historical levels. Treasury bond markets weakened. On the day, the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond yield rose +3.08 bps to 2.5468%, compared to 2.5160% at the prior close.

    This morning, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are up +0.54 bps at 2.5522%, compared to the prior close. World sovereign bond markets are stronger. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields are 2.73% and +2.86%, respectively, compared to 2.77% and +2.88% the prior day.

    U.S. options markets are unchanged at neutral to bullish, compared to neutral to bullish the prior day. The CBOE SKEW rose +0.86% to 139.94, compared to 138.74 the prior day, well above 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops. The SKEW closed at a record 143.60 on June 20th.

    In pre-market futures trading, September SPX equity futures (SPM4) price near the top of their 1967-1975 trading range. After a fair value adjustment of -0.35 points, the SPU4 future prices at 1973.00, up +2.35 points. The SPX opens +0.70% and +2.50% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +4.31% and +7.55% above its 200-day moving averages. Initial resistance is 1981.35. Initial support is 1971.36, then 1965.61.

    "Uptrend Under Pressure" Market Outlook and Distribution Day Count. On July 9th, the market outlook worsened to "uptrend under pressure", as distribution day counts mounted. Since May 27th, distribution days number 6 for the SPX, DJI, and NYSE composite, and 5 for the Nasdaq.

    On May 27th, the market outlook improved to "confirmed uptrend", ending a period of market "in correction" that began on April 4th. The SPX closed July 3rd at a record 1985.44, +9.35% above the 1815.69 close on April 11th, the recent low close. On February 3rd, the Nasdaq closed at its 3,996.96 year-to-date low, but then recovered +11.6% to the July 3rd 4,458.65 multi-year record close.

    In Asia, equity markets closed higher. The Nikkei 225 (NYSEARCA:NKY) rose +0.64%. The Hang Seng (HSI) Index rose +0.49%. The Shanghai SE composite (SHCOMP) rose +0.18%. The NKY, HSI, and SHCOMP 50-day moving averages are below their respective 200-day moving averages. Today's volumes are unavailable.

    Economic reporting was light. Commentary focused on last week's regional equity weakness, the direction of monetary policy, currency, and commodity price developments.

    This week, the NKY, HSI, and SHCOMP are up +1.52%, +0.97%, and +1.14%, respectively, compared to the prior week, when the NKY closed down -1.77%, the HSI fell -1.33% , and the SHCOMP lost -0.60%. In July, the NKY is up +1.54%, the HSI is up +1.16%, and the SHCOMP is up +1.14%. In June, the NKY gained +3.62%, the HSI gained +0.47%, and the SHCOMP gained +0.58%.

    In 2014, the NKY is down -5.50%, the HSI is up +0.66%, and the SHCOMP is down -2.16%. In 2013, the NKY rose +56.7%. The HSI closed up +2.87%. The SHCOMP closed down -6.75%.

    In China, short-term interbank lending rates remain volatile, and the SHIBO 7-day rate fell -6 bps at 3.64%, compared to 3.70% the prior day, up from a 2.26% low on March 11th, but down from the February 7th 5.41% recent high.

    Regional relative strength indexes (RSI) show Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Shanghai are in a neutral ranges. The NKY RSI rose to 59.69, compared to 56.05 the prior session, up from an oversold 27.92 on February 4th, the most recent prior yearly low. The HSI RSI rose to 58.72, compared to 55.28 the prior day. The SHCOMP's RSI rose to 58.73, compared to 57.50 the prior session. On June 27, 2013, the index's RSI fell to a low of 15.27, which was also last year's low index close.

    In Japan, the NKY closed at 15,395.16, compared to 15,296.82 the prior day, -5.50% below its recent year-end 16,291.31 high and -60.4% below its late-1989 38,915.87 high close. The index rallied to an early 15,441.54 intraday high, then trended modestly lower to the close. All market segments closed at least +0.06% higher. Leaders were financials, utilities, and materials, which rose at least +0.82%. Laggards were telecommunications, industrials, and energy.

    In China, in Shanghai, the SHCOMP closed at 2,070.36, compared to 2,066.65 at the prior close, +6.17% above the 1,950.01 June 27, 2013 close, last year's low. The index traded narrowly through the session, with somewhat greater volatility during the afternoon, when the index fell to its 2,059.83 intraday low, then reversed higher in the final minutes to the session's closing intraday high. Most market segments closed higher. Leaders were consumer staples, health care and financials, which rose at least +0.21%. Laggards included technology, consumer discretionary, and telecommunications, which fell at least -0.23%.

    In Europe, most equities are moderately lower, with greater weakness in Madrid and Milan. The Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are down -0.41%, -0.06%, -0.31%, and -0.15%, respectively. The Spanish IBEX 35 is down -0.89%. The Italian FTSE MIB is down -0.66%.

    Economic reporting is light. Commentary focuses on currency and commodity developments. The euro is weaker compared to the dollar.

    European bourses have recently underperformed U.S. equity indexes. Intraday Euro Stoxx50 relative strength (RSI) is 40.24, compared to 42.08 at the prior close, in the lower end of a neutral (30-70) range, better than its recent February 5th 33.57 closing low, which coincided with its 2014 low. The index's lowest recent RSI level was 25.77 on June 24, 2013, which marked the year's 2,494.54 closing low.

    The Euro Stoxx50 trades -39.6% below its 5,249.55 March 31, 2000, all-time closing high. From its prior day 3,185.86 close, the index opened lower, found support at 3,155 in early afternoon, and then improved somewhat by mid-afternoon. The index currently trades at 3,171.80. Most market segments are at lower. Leaders are utilities and consumer discretionary, which are up at least +0.23%, and consumer staples, which is down -0.015. Laggards are energy, technology, and financials, which are down at least -0.62%.

    This week, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC, and DAX are up +0.50%, +0.77%, +0.47%, and +1.06%, respectively, compared to the prior week, when the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed down -3.47%, -2.56%, -3.41%, and -3.42%, respectively. In July, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are down -1.72%, -0.03%, -1.94%, and -0.65%, respectively. In June, the Euro Stoxx50 closed up +0.03%, while the FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed down -0.88%, -1.53%, and -0.84%, respectively.

    In 2014, the indexes are mixed. The Euro Stoxx50, CAC 40, and DAX are up +2.05%, +0.95%, and +2.27%, respectively, while the FTSE 100 is down -0.11%. In 2013, the indexes closed up +18.0%, +14.4%, +18.0%, and +25.5%, respectively.

    2Q2014 SPX Earnings. The 2nd quarter earnings season began June 18th, and now 31 of 500 SPX reporting firms have reported, with respective +8.40% EPS and +2.26% revenue surprises. Financials (6 of 84 reporting) lead with a 13.7% EPS surprise and 4.80% revenue surprise.

    In 1Q2014, of 499 (of 499) reporting companies, 370 or 74.5% surprised positively on earnings, with an average +5.91% surprise average. Of reporting companies, 263 or 53.0% reported sales or revenues above estimates. The average sales/revenue surprise was +0.20%. Energy led with respective +10.0% and -1.01% earnings and revenue surprises. Financials had a respective +5.67% and +0.26% earnings and revenue surprises. Consumer staples lagged with respective +0.34% and -0.66% earnings and revenue surprises.

    Valuation. The SPX trades at 17.9x estimated 2013 earnings ($110.15), 16.7x estimated 2014 earnings ($118.59), 14.9x estimated 2015 earnings ($132.30), and 13.5x estimated 2016 earnings ($146.49). The 10-year average median price/earnings multiple is 15.9x. Analysts expect 2014, 2015, and 2016 earnings to grow +7.66%, +11.6%, and 10.7%, respectively.

    The KBW Bank Index (BKX) trades at 13.8x 2013 adjusted EPS ($5.16), 13.4x estimated 2014 earnings ($5.32), 11.9x estimated 2015 earnings ($5.97), and 10.7x 2016 earnings ($6.65). Analysts expect 2014, 2015, 2016 EPS will grow +3.07%, +12.2%, and +11.5%, respectively.

    Composite, index, and equity options. Options markets are unchanged at neutral to bullish, compared to neutral to bullish the prior session. Composite options are bullish, index options are bullish, and equity options are neutral. The composite put/call ratio is 0.88, compared to 0.88 the prior day, and worse than 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.91 and 0.84, respectively. The index put/call ratio is 0.98, compared to 1.27 the prior day, and worse than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.95 and 0.95, respectively. The equity put/call ratio closed the day at 0.82, compared to 0.72 the prior day, and better than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.87 and 0.85, respectively.

    NYSE Volume, Breadth Indicators. Volume rose +1.65% to 592.21 million shares, compared to 582.57 million shares the prior day, 0.82x the 722.69 million share 20-day moving average. Market breadth was positive, and up volume led down volume. Advancing stocks led by +874 (compared to +261 the prior day) or 1.79:1. Up volume was 1.90:1 down volume.

    Libor, LOIS, Currencies, Treasuries, Commodities:

    · USD LIBOR is 0.09420%, compared to 0.09340% the prior day. USD 3-month LIBOR is 0.23310%, unchanged from 0.23260% the prior day, and compares to the January 4, 2013, recent peak of 0.58250%.

    · The US LIBOR-OIS (LOIS) spread is 13.560 bps, compared to 13.760 bps the prior day, and compares to the recent June 12, 2012, 46.785 bps high. Euribor-OIS is 14.000 bps, compared to 14.300 bps the prior day, and down from the December 27, 2011, high of 98.800 bps. Moves in the LOIS indicate changes in intra-bank lending risk premiums.

    · The 3-month Euro basis swap curve is -10.768 bps, compared to -11.265 bps the prior day, up from a trough of -147.00 bps on December 14, 2011, and within a normal -10 bps and -40 bps range.

    · German 10-year debt yields 1.19%, compared to 1.21% the prior day.

    · French 10-year debt yields 1.43%, compared to 1.43% the prior day.

    · Japanese 10-year debt yields are 0.54%, compared to 0.54% the prior day.

    · Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields are lower. Spanish 10-year debt yields are 2.74%, compared to 2.77% the prior day, modestly above the U.S. 10-year yield and compares to its 2.575% June 9th low. Italian 10-year debt yields are at 2.86%, compared to 2.88% the prior day and their June 9th 2.704% recent low. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields peaked at 7.62% and 7.26%, respectively, in July 2012 and November 2011.

    · U.S. Treasury yields are higher, with 2- and 10-year maturities yielding 0.460% and 2.543%, respectively, compared to 0.460% and 2.547% Monday. The yield curve narrowed -0.360 bps, with the 2- to 10-year spread at 2.083%, compared to 2.087% the prior day. In the past year, the 2- and 10-year spread varied from a low of +2.074% on July 11, 2014, to a high of +2.648% on December 31, 2013.

    · The U.S. dollar is mixed, stronger compared to the euro and Japanese yen, but weaker compared to the British pound. The dollar trades at US$80.207, compared to US$80.079 intraday low and US$80.188 the prior day, and mixed compared to its $80.244 50-day, US$80.043 100-day, and US$80.264 200-day averages. The euro trades at US$1.3610, compared to a US$1.3628 intraday high and US$1.3619 the prior day. The euro trades worse compared to its US$1.3641 50-day and US$1.3730 100-day averages, and compares to a multi-year low of US$1.1877 on June 7, 2010. In Japan, the dollar trades at ¥101.59, compared to ¥101.54 the prior day. The yen trades better than its 50-day moving average ¥101.88, and better than its January 1st 105.31 closing low, its weakest prior multi-year closing low.

    · Citigroup Economic Surprise Index worsened to -15.90, compared to -13.10 the prior day. The index is mixed compared to its respective -13.84 5-day and -14.07 10-day moving averages. From a +72.70 high on January 15th, the index subsequently trended lower and turned negative on February 19th and fell to a -45.90 124-week low on April 7th. The index turned briefly positive in the latter half of May, but has been negative since May 29th. After a lag, the CESIUSD correlates with EPS revisions.

    · Commodities prices are mixed, with lower energy, higher precious metals, mixed aluminum and copper, and mostly lower agriculture prices.

    Volatility, Skew:

    · The CBOE SPX Volatility Index (VIX) fell -2.15% to 11.82, compared to 12.08 at the prior close. The VIX is +2.92% above the 11.90 20-day moving average. Its 30-day high is 13.23. Its 30-day low is 10.28. Its all-time closing low is 9.31 on December 22, 1993. The long-term average is 20.00.

    · The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index (V2X) is 15.67, up +4.67% compared to 14.99 at the prior day's close. The V2X index trades +8.94% above its 14.39 20-day moving average, -12.7% below the 17.96 30-day high, and +27.4% above the 12.30 30-day low.

    · The Hang Seng volatility index (VHSI) closed at 12.90, down -2.49% compared to 13.23 at the prior close. The VHSI index trades +2.36% above its 12.60 20-day moving average. Its lowest historical close was 11.72, on June 30, 2005.

    · CBOE SKEW (SKEW) rose +0.86% to 139.94, compared to 138.74 the prior session, above a neutral reading (115-120) and since June 19th, above 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops. The recent record high was 143.26 on June 20, 2014. Its recent low was 112.47 on May 25, 2013. Spikes in excess of 130 correlate well with short-term market tops, as occurred last December, ahead of market declines last January. The index rarely falls below 110, last on July 31, 2009. The index correlates with market tail risks, the cost of buying out-of-the-money, long-dated options, i.e., options not affected by expirations. A rise suggests that investors are buying more puts than calls, a bearish signal.

    U.S. Economic Reporting and News:
     

    • At 8:30, July Empire manufacturing was , with 17.00 survey and 19.28 revised prior.
    • June MoM advance retail sales rose %, compared to +0.6% survey and +0.3% revised prior.
    • June MoM retail sales excluding auto and gas rose %, compared to +0.5% survey and +0.0% revised prior.
    • June MoM import price index rose %, compared to +0.4% survey and +0.1% revised prior.
    • At 10:00, May business inventories rose %, compared to +0.6% survey and revised prior.


    Overseas Economic Reporting and News:
     

    • Japan - YoY Tokyo condominium sales fell -28.3%, compared to -13.4 prior. June final YoY machine tool orders rose 34.1%, compared to 34.2% prior.
    • Eurozone - July ZEW survey expectations fell to 48.1, compared to 58.4 prior.
    • Germany - July ZEW expectations were 27.1, compared to 28.2 survey and 29.8 prior.
    • United Kingdom - June MoM CPI rose +0.2%, compared to -0.1% survey and prior. YoY core CPI rose +2.0%, compared to +1.7% survey and +1.6% prior.


    Company Ratings/News:
     

    • Comerica (CMA) - Reported 2Q2014 adjusted EPS of $0.80, compared to the $0.762 estimate, and $637.0 million in revenues, compared to the $626.57 million estimate.
    • Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) - Reported 2Q2014 adjusted EPS of $4.10, compared to the $3.089 estimate, and $9.13 billion in revenues, compared to the $7.975 billion estimate.
    • JP Morgan (JPM) - Reported 2Q2014 adjusted EPS of $1.59, compared to the $1.306 estimate, and $25.350 billion in revenues, compared to the $23.894 billion estimate.


    Monday's Trade. On greater, but below average NYSE volume, major U.S. equity indexes closed moderately higher. The SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, NYSE composite rose +0.48%, +0.66%, +0.56%, and +0.50%, respectively. In July, indexes are at least +0.11% higher. The SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are at least +2.83% higher in 2014. Market breadth was positive, with gainers 1.19x losing stocks. Most SPX market segments closed higher. Leaders were energy, technology, and financials, which rose at least +0.61%. Laggards were consumer discretionary and materials, which rose at least +0.01%, and utilities, which fell at least -1.20%.

    Other notable indexes closed higher. The Russell 2000 (RTY) rose +0.49% and closed -3.56% below its March 4th record high. The Nasdaq Internet Index (QNET) rose +1.17% and is down -8.31% below its March 6th closing high. The Nasdaq Biotech Index (NBI) rose +0.35%, -5.44% below its February 25th record high.

    NYSE volume rose +1.65% to 592.21 million shares, compared to 582.57 million shares the prior day, 0.82x the 722.69 million share 20-day moving average volume. Bond markets weakened. The U.S. 10-year yield moved narrowly through until 8:00 am, when it set a low of 2.5160%, then moved thigh to a late morning 2.55486% intraday high. The index traded ended at 2.5468%, up +3.08 bps compared to the 2.5160% prior close.

    From its prior day 1972.83 SPX close, September 2014 SPX futures (SPM4) suggested a sharply higher open. The index gapped higher to 1978, then traded narrowly through the session, with a late morning 1979.85 intraday high. The index closed at 1977.10, +83.4% above the 1074.77 October 4, 2011, intraday low, the bottom of the most recent correction.

    From its prior day 8,254.31 close, the DJ Transportation index (TRAN) rose +0.71%, compared to the DJI's +0.66% gain. The index rallied sharply at the open and rose to a late morning 8,338.72 intraday high, then eased to support at 8,310 in early afternoon. The TRAN closed at a record 8,313.11. Volume fell -7.28% to 13.077 million shares, compared to 13.986 million shares the prior session, and 0.79x the 15-day moving average volume. The TRAN closed +1.48% and +3.32% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +6.82% and +11.7% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving averages.

    Market volatility fell -2.15%, as the CBOE SPX volatility index (VIX) closed at 11.82, compared to 12.08 at the prior close. The index opened at 11.60, fell to an early 11.40 intraday low, then trended higher through the session to a late 11.83 intraday high. The VIX's all-time closing low is 9.31, on December 22, 1993. Its record high is 89.53 in December 2008. Its lifetime average is 20.01. The CBOE put/call SKEW rose +0.86%, to 139.94, compared to 138.74 the prior session, above a neutral 115-120 range, and well above 130, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops. Its record 143.26 high came on June 20th.

    The market's technical factors were little changed. The SPX relative strength (RSI) rose to 62.00, compared to 57.98 the prior day, in a neutral range, down from an overbought 73.73 on June 9th and up from an oversold 31.24 on February 3rd. The RSI compares to an overbought 71.26 on December 31st, when the SPX closed at an earlier record high, and compares to earlier oversold levels of 35.14 on August 27th and 39.19 on October 9th.

    Last week, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are down -0.90%, -0.73%, -1.57%, and -1.52%, respectively. The prior week, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +1.29%, +1.28%, +2.00%, and +1.19%, respectively. In July, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +0.86%, +1.36%, +0.73%, and +0.11%, respectively. In June, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite rose +1.91%, +0.65%, +3.90%, and +2.07%, respectively.

    In 2014, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +6.97%, +2.89%, +6.32%, and +5.68%, respectively. In 2013, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +29.6%, +26.5%, +38.2%, +23.2%, respectively. All closed at least +5.91% higher in 2012.

    KBW Bank Index (BKX). On lower and below 15-day average volume, the BKX rose +0.35% to 71.22, compared to 70.97 at the prior day's close, its 27th consecutive close above 70, but -2.32% below its 72.91 March 20th post-2008 closing high. The index gapped higher and set an early 71.84 intraday low, then trended lower through the session to a late 71.16 intraday low. Volume rose +7.69% to 40.571 million shares, compared to 37.675 million shares the prior day, and 1.001x the 40.525 million share 15-day moving average.

    Large cap banks outperformed the regional banks, as the KBW regional banking index (KRX) rose +0.03%.

    Last week, the BKX is down -1.95%, compared to the prior week, when the BKX rose +2.36%. In July, the BKX is down -0.13%, compared to June, when the BKX rose +3.48%. In 2014, the BKX is up +2.83%, compared to the SPX's +6.97% gain. In 2013, the BKX rose +35.1%, better than the SPX's +29.6% rise.

    The BKX is now +20.3% better than the June 24, 2013, 59.19 close, its worst since May 13, 2013. The index crossed above 50 on December 17, 2012, 60 on May 15, 2013, and 70 on January 8, 2014, but then dropped back below 70 on January 24th, which persisted until March 6th. On April 10th, the BKX fell below 70.00 and then eased consistently to the May 15th 66.81 closing low, its lowest close since early February. The BKX closed +118.7% above the 32.56 intraday low on October 4, 2011, the bottom of that year's correction. Large-cap bank stocks have outperformed the broader market's rebound, with the SPX up +84.0% in the same period.

    The BKX index closed -41.2% below its February 20, 2007, record 121.06 high. The BKX is up +282.5% from its 18.62 March 6, 2009, closing low, its low during the 2008-09 financial panic.

    Technical indicators were little changed. The index closed -0.15% below and +1.97% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +1.79% and +4.18% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving average. The 20-day moving average rose +3 bps to 71.33. The 69.84 50-day moving average rose +6 bps. Its 69.97 100-day moving average rose +4 bps, and the 200-day moving average rose +4 bps to 68.36. The 20-day closed (by +1.48 points) above the 50-day, and the gap narrowed -4 bps. The 50-day moving average closed (by +1.49 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap widened +2 bps. The 100-day moving average closed (by +1.61 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap was unchanged.

    The directional movement indicator is -1.842, compared to -2.162 the prior day, its 3rd consecutive negative reading. Relative strength rose to 52.78, compared to 50.44 the prior day, in a neutral range, down from an overbought 73.14 on June 9th, but up from the recent 32.95 low on February 3rd. The lowest recent RSI level was 31.08 on November 14, 2012, which is also the date of the BKX's 2012 closing low. Next resistance is 71.65; next support is 70.97.

    SPX, DJI, RTY, TRAN, CCMP, NYA, VIX, SKEW, NKY, EURUSD, USGG10YR, HSI, SHCOMP, SX5E, CAC, DAX, FTSE, JPY, GBP, EUR

    Themes: SPX, DJI, RTY, TRAN, CCMP, NYA, VIX, SKEW, NKY, EURUSD, USGG10YR, HSI, SHCOMP, SX5E, CAC, DAX, FTSE, JPY, GBP, EUR Stocks: CMA, GS, JPM
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