This morning. U.S. futures are moderately higher and near the top of their pre-session ranges. In Asia, equities closed higher, with better strength in China. In Europe, major indexes have shrugged off Germany's 2Q2014 economic contraction, rallied, and trade near their intraday highs. The dollar is weaker compared to the euro. U.S. Treasury 10-year yields are lower. Commodities are mostly lower. Monday's Nikkei 225 September 2014 (NKU4) equity futures are modestly higher.
Thursday, on lower and below average volume, U.S. equity indexes closed moderately higher. The S&P 500 Index (SPX), DJ Industrials (DJI), Nasdaq, and NYSE composite rose +0.43%, +0.37%, +0.43%, and +0.43%, respectively. This week, indexes are up at least +0.96%, compared to last week, when major indexes closed at least -2.18% lower. In August, indexes are at least +0.71% higher. In July, indexes closed off at least -0.87%. In 2014, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +5.78%, +0.83%, +6.62%, and +3.87%, respectively.
NYSE volume fell -7.56% to 0.80x its 20-day moving average.
Other notable indexes also rose. The DJ Transports (TRAN) rose +0.66%. The Russell 2000 (RTY) rose +0.14%. The Nasdaq Internet (QNET) index rose to +0.28%, and the Nasdaq Biotech (NBI) index rose +1.50%. The TRAN, RTY, QNET, and NBI are down -2.41%, -5.40%, -6.63% and -4.35%, respectively, from their recent record highs.
Trading desks report a quiet overnight, but with global equity markets as Russian/Ukrainian tensions ease and Japanese, German, Italian economic contraction appears trumped by expected dovish comments from Yellen next week and continued aggressive monetary ease from all monetary authorities. With regard to yesterday's trade, despite a soft weekly unemployment report, the SPX moved back within its 1950-1985 trading range. Sentiment remains gloomy.
The 2Q2014 earnings season began June 18th and is now largely complete as 468 of 500 SPX companies have reported with respective +5.19% and +1.57% adjusted EPS and revenues surprises. Financials (84 of 84 reporting) lead with respective +9.47% and +2.38% EPS and revenue surprises. In 1Q2014, 499 of 499 SPX companies reported with respective +5.91% EPS and +0.20% revenue surprises.
Forward estimates have moved up. Respective estimates for 2014, 2015 and 2016 are now $119.58, $132.81, and $147.07, respectively compared to $118.05, $131.36 and $145.70 at June-end, respective increases of +1.30%, +1.11% and +0.94%. Price earnings multiples remain elevated. With SPX equities trading at a 16.9x (compared to 16.9x the prior day) average 2014-15 earnings ($126.20), attention focuses on prospective 2014-15 earnings and valuations (16.9x times survey 2014-15 SPX average operating earnings suggests a 2128.12 SPX level in the next year, a +10.1% rise from yesterday's close).
Technicals improved, as the SPX recaptured its 20-day moving average. Led by health care, most SPX market segments closed higher. SPX market breadth was positive, and up volume led down volume. Volatility fell, and the VIX now suggests a 68% probability that the 30-day change in the SPX will be less than ±4.30%. Treasury bond markets strengthened. On the day, the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond yield fell -1.51 bps to end at 2.4015%, compared to 2.4166% at the prior close.
This morning, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are down -1.06 bps at 2.3909%, compared to the prior close. World sovereign bond markets are also stronger, with the German 10-year yield at 1.005%, near a record low. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields are lower at 2.423% and 2.607%, respectively, compared to 2.486% and +2.657% the prior day.
U.S. options markets improved to neutral, compared to bearish to bullish the prior day. The CBOE SKEW rose +4.36% to 132.46, compared to 126.93 the prior day, moving above 130 for the 1st time in 7 sessions, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops. The SKEW closed at a record 143.60 on June 20th.
In pre-market futures trading, September SPX equity futures (SPM4) price near the top of their 1952-1959 trading range. After a fair value adjustment of -1.98 points, the SPU4 future prices at 1943.50, up +0.73 points. The SPX opens +0.12% above and -0.08% below its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +1.97% below and +4.75% above its 200-day moving averages. Initial resistance is 1957.80. Initial support is 1949.98, then 1944.79.
"Confirmed Uptrend" Market Outlook. Based on Nasdaq's August 13th follow-through, the U.S. equity outlook improved to "confirmed uptrend", concluding a brief "in correction" that commenced on August 6th, which followed a period of "uptrend under pressure" that began on July 8th. 2Q2014 earnings continue to surprise positively, with financials' earnings leading other sectors.
On May 27th, the market outlook improved to "confirmed uptrend", ending a period of market "in correction" that began on April 4th. The SPX closed July 24th at a record 1987.01, +8.99% above the 1815.69 close on April 11th, the recent low. On February 3rd, the Nasdaq closed at its 3,996.96 year-to-date low, but then recovered +11.6% to the July 3rd 4,458.65 multi-year record close.
In Asia, equity markets closed higher, with better strength in China. The Nikkei 225 (NKY) closed up +0.02%. In China, the Hang Seng (HSI) Index rose +0.62%, and the Shanghai SE composite (SHCOMP) closed up +0.92%. The NKY, HSI, and SHCOMP 50-day moving averages are above their respective 200-day moving averages. Today's volumes are unavailable.
Commentary focused on earnings, economic reports, and currency developments.
This week, the NKY, HSI, and SHCOMP closed up +3.65%, +2.56%, and +1.47%, respectively. Last week, the NKY closed down -4.80%, while the HSI fell -0.82%, and the SHCOMP gained +0.42%. In August, the NKY is down -1.94%, while the HSI and SHCOMP are up +0.80%, and +1.14%, respectively. In July, the NKY closed up +3.03%, the HSI rose +6.75%, and the SHCOMP rallied +7.48%.
In 2014, the NKY is down -5.97%, the HSI is up +7.07%, and the SHCOMP is up +5.23%. In 2013, the NKY rose +56.7%. The HSI closed up +2.87%. The SHCOMP closed down -6.75%.
In China, short-term interbank lending rates remain volatile, but the SHIBO 7-day fell -1 bp to 3.35%, compared to 3.36% the prior day, up from a 2.26% low on March 11th, but down from the February 7th 5.41% recent high.
Regional relative strength indexes (RSI) have Tokyo in a neutral range, while the Hong Kong and Shanghai are in the upper end of neutral ranges. The NKY RSI rose to 51.47, compared to 51.35 the prior session, up from an oversold 27.92 on February 4th, the most recent prior yearly low. The HSI RSI fell to 70.28, compared to 67.50 the prior day and down from an overbought 81.00 on July 31st. The SHCOMP's RSI rose to 70.28, compared to 64.39 the prior day. On July 28th, the index's RSI set a record 81.72. On June 27, 2013, the index's RSI fell to a low of 15.27, which was also last year's low index close.
In Japan, the NKY closed at 15,318.34, compared to 15,314.57 the prior day, -5.97% below its year-end 16,291.31 high and -60.6% below its late-1989 38,915.87 high close. The index set an opening 15,328.34 intraday high, but dropped immediately to the 15,276.99 intraday low. The index gradually improved and reversed modestly higher by mid-afternoon, then traded narrowly to the close. All market segments closed at least +0.27% higher. Leaders were technology, health care, and financials, which rose at least +0.37%. Laggards were materials, telecommunications and energy, which fell at least -0.42%.
In China, in Shanghai, the SHCOMP closed at 2,226.73, compared to 2,206.47 at the prior close, +14.2% above the 1,950.01 June 27, 2013 close, last year's low. In early trading the index eased to its 2,203.52 intraday low, then rallied through the morning session to an early afternoon 2,230.83 intraday high. All market segments closed at least +0.62% higher. Leaders were telecommunications, consumer discretionary, and technology, which rose at least +1.03%. Financials rose +0.92%. Laggards included health care, energy , and utilities.
In Europe, major equity indexes have rallied through the session and in mid-afternoon trade near their intraday highs. The Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +0.98%, +0.73%, +1.01%, and +0.88%, respectively. The Spanish IBEX 35 is up +0.97%. The Italian FTSE MIB is down -0.29%. The Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are down -6.83%, -2.83%, -7.63%, and -7.41%, respectively, from their recent highs.
Economic reporting is light. Commentary focuses on easing Russian/Ukrainian concerns. The euro is slightly stronger compared to the dollar.
European bourses have recently underperformed U.S. equity indexes. Intraday Euro Stoxx50 relative strength (RSI) is 45.77, compared to 40.51 at the prior close, in a neutral (30-70) range. Last Friday, its RSI closed at 28.17, well below its prior February 5th 33.57 low, which coincided with its prior 2014 low. The index's lowest recent RSI level was 25.77 on June 24, 2013, which marked the year's 2,494.54 closing low.
The Euro Stoxx50 trades -6.83% below its recent June 18th 3,314.80 multi-year high and -41.2% below its 5,249.55 March 31, 2000, all-time closing high. From its prior day 3,058.16 close, the index has trended higher through the session with a mid-afternoon 3,089.32 intraday high. The index currently trades at 3,086.86. All market segments are at least +0.38% higher. Leaders are materials, industrials, and utilities, which are up at least +1.25%. Laggards are consumer discretionary, technology, and energy.
This week, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are up +2.71%, +2.54%, +2.41%, and +3.29%, respectively. Last week, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed down -2.14%, -2.42%, -2.32%, and -4.23%, respectively. In August, the FTSE 100 and CAC 40 are up +0.06% and +0.04%, respectively, while the Euro Stoxx50 and DAX are down -0.87% and -1.08%, respectively. In July, the Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX closed down -3.49%, -0.21%, -4.00%, and -4.33%, respectively.
In 2014, the indexes are lower. The Euro Stoxx50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX are down -0.67%, -0.22%, -1.12%, -2.58%, respectively. In 2013, the indexes closed up +18.0%, +14.4%, +18.0%, and +25.5%, respectively.
2Q2014 SPX Earnings. The 2nd quarter earnings season began June 18th and is now largely complete, with 468 of 500 SPX reporting firms having reported, with respective +5.19% EPS and +1.57% revenue surprises. Financials (84 of 84 reporting) lead with a 9.47% EPS surprise and +2.38% revenue surprise.
In 1Q2014, of 499 (of 499) reporting companies, 370 or +74.5% surprised positively on earnings, with an average +5.91% surprise average. Of reporting companies, 263 or 53.0% reported sales or revenues above estimates. The average sales/revenue surprise was +0.20%. Energy led with respective +10.0% and -1.01% earnings and revenue surprises. Financials had respective +5.67% and +0.26% earnings and revenue surprises. Consumer staples lagged with respective +0.34% and -0.66% earnings and revenue surprises.
Valuation. The SPX trades at 17.8x estimated 2013 earnings ($110.15), 16.4x estimated 2014 earnings ($119.54), 14.7x estimated 2015 earnings ($132.80), and 13.3x estimated 2016 earnings ($147.42). The 10-year average median price/earnings multiple is 15.9x. Analysts expect 2014, 2015, and 2016 earnings to grow +8.53%, +11.1%, and 11.0%, respectively.
The KBW Bank Index (BKX) trades at 13.4x 2013 adjusted EPS ($5.16), 12.6x estimated 2014 earnings ($5.51), 11.7x estimated 2015 earnings ($5.94), and 10.5x 2016 earnings ($6.63). Analysts expect 2014, 2015, 2016 EPS will grow +6.79%, +7.82%, and +11.7%, respectively.
Composite, index, and equity options. Options markets improved to neutral, compared to bearish to bullish the prior session. Composite options are neutral, index options are neutral, and equity options are neutral. The composite put/call ratio is 0.98, compared to 0.94 the prior day, and worse than 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.96 and 1.05, respectively. The index put/call ratio is 1.05, compared to 0.89 the prior day, and worse than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 1.03 and 1.13, respectively. The equity put/call ratio closed the day at 0.84, compared to 0.96 the prior day, and better than its 5- and 10-period moving averages of 0.91 and 1.01, respectively.
NYSE Volume, Breadth Indicators. Volume fell -7.56% to 516.67 million shares, compared to 558.95 million shares the prior day, 0.80x the 643.10 million share 20-day moving average. Market breadth was positive, and up volume led down volume. Advancing stocks led by +1,080 (compared to +1,472 the prior day), or 2.10:1. Up volume was 1.82:1 down volume.
Libor, LOIS, Currencies, Treasuries, Commodities:
· USD LIBOR is 0.09030%, compared to 0.09010% the prior day. USD 3-month LIBOR is 0.23360%, down from 0.23310% the prior day, and compares to the January 4, 2013, recent peak of 0.58250%.
· The US LIBOR-OIS (LOIS) spread is 14.360 bps, compared to 14.060 bps the prior day, and compares to the recent June 12, 2012, 46.785 bps high. Euribor-OIS is 15.500 bps, compared to 14.900 bps the prior day, and down from the December 27, 2011, high of 98.800 bps. Moves in the LOIS indicate changes in intra-bank lending risk premiums.
· The 3-month Euro basis swap curve is -13.212 bps, compared to -13.250 bps the prior day, up from a trough of -147.00 bps on December 14, 2011, and within the lower end of a normal -10 bps and -40 bps range.
· German 10-year debt yields 1.005%, compared to 1.017% the prior day.
· French 10-year debt yields 1.242%, compared to 1.268% the prior day.
· Japanese 10-year debt yields are 0.503%, compared to 0.506% the prior day.
· Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields are lower and near multi-year lows. Spanish 10-year debt yields are 2.423%, compared to 2.486% the prior day. Italian 10-year debt yields are at 2.607%, compared to 2.657% the prior day. Spanish and Italian 10-year debt yields peaked at 7.62% and 7.26%, respectively, in July 2012 and November 2011.
· U.S. Treasury yields are lower, with 2- and 10-year maturities yielding 0.416% and 2.391%, respectively, compared to 0.416% and 2.402% Thursday. The yield curve narrowed -1.030 bps, with the 2- to 10-year spread at +1.975%, compared to 1.986% the prior day. In the past year, the 2- and 10-year spread varied from a low of +0.690% on July 29, 2014, to a high of +2.648% on December 31, 2013.
· The U.S. dollar is mixed, weaker compared to the euro and British pound, but stronger compared to the Japanese yen. The dollar trades at US$81.489, compared to US$81.479 intraday low and US$81.588 the prior day, and better compared to its $80.699 50-day, US$80.336 100-day, and US$80.390 200-day averages. The euro trades at US$1.3387, compared to a US$1.3392 intraday high and US$1.3349 the prior day. The euro trades worse compared to its US$1.3522 50-day and US$1.3640 100-day averages, and compares to a multi-year low of US$1.1877 on June 7, 2010. In Japan, the dollar trades at ¥102.57, compared to ¥102.45 the prior day. The yen trades worse than its 50-day moving average ¥101.94, and better than its January 1st 105.31 closing low, its weakest prior multi-year closing low.
· Citigroup Economic Surprise Index worsened to -2.60, compared to -0.30 the prior day, its 2nd consecutive negative reading. The index is mixed compared to its respective +1.50 5-day and -3.43 10-day moving averages. From a +72.70 high on January 15th, the index subsequently trended lower and turned negative on February 19th and fell to a -45.90 124-week low on April 7th. The index turned briefly positive in the latter half of May, then turned negative on May 29th and remained negative through August 5th. After a lag, the CESIUSD correlates with EPS revisions.
· Commodities prices are mixed, with mixed energy, lower precious metals, lower aluminum and copper, and mostly lower agriculture prices.
Volatility, Skew:
· The CBOE SPX volatility index (VIX) -3.72% to 12.42, compared to 12.90 at the prior close. The VIX is -11.5% below the 14.04 20-day moving average. Its 30-day high is 17.57. Its 30-day low is 10.28. Its all-time closing low is 9.31 on December 22, 1993. The long-term average is 20.00.
· The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index (V2X) is 16.07, down -7.08% compared to 17.30 at the prior day's close. The V2X index trades -10.8% below its 18.03 20-day moving average, -27.4% below the 22.15 30-day high, and +18.0% above the 13.62 30-day low.
· The Hang Seng volatility index (VHSI) closed at 14.97, down -3.11% compared to 15.45 at the prior close. The VHSI index trades -1.61% below its 15.22 20-day moving average. Its lowest historical close was 11.72, on June 30, 2005.
· CBOE SKEW (SKEW) rose +4.36% to 132.46, compared to 126.93 the prior session, above a neutral reading (115-120) and, after its 4 consecutive readings under 130, back above that level, which correlates well with short-term market tops. The recent record high was 143.26 on June 20, 2014. Its recent low was 112.47 on May 25, 2013. Spikes in excess of 130 correlate well with short-term market tops, as occurred last December, ahead of market declines last January. The index rarely falls below 110, last on July 31, 2009. The index correlates with market tail risks, the cost of buying out-of-the-money, long-dated options, i.e., options not affected by expirations. A rise suggests that investors are buying more puts than calls, a bearish signal.
U.S. Economic Reporting and News:
· At 8:30, August empire manufacturing was 14.69, compared to 20.00 survey and 25.60 revised prior.
· July MoM PPI ex food and energy rose +0.2%, compared to +0.2% survey and +0.2% revised prior.
· At 9:15, July MoM industrial production, with +0.3% survey and +0.2% prior.
· July capacity utilization, with 79.2% survey and 79.1% prior.
· July manufacturing production, with +0.4% survey and +0.1% prior.
· At 9:55, August preliminary University of Michigan confidence, with 82.5 survey and 81.8 prior.
Overseas Economic Reporting and News:
· United Kingdom - 2Q2014 preliminary GDP rose +0.08%, compared to +0.8% and +0.8% prior.
Notable Company Ratings/News:
· None.
Thursday's Trade. On lower and below average NYSE volume, major U.S. equity indexes closed moderately higher, but near their intraday highs. The SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite rose +0.43%, +0.37%, +0.43%, and +0.43%, respectively. This week, indexes are up at least +0.96%. In August, indexes are at least +0.71% higher. In July, indexes closed down at least -1.51%. In 2014, indexes are up at least +0.45%. Market breadth was positive, with gainers 2.10x losing stocks. Most SPX market segments closed higher. Leaders were health care, utilities, and consumer discretionary, which rose at least +0.77%. Financials rose +0.54%. Laggards were technology and materials, which rose at least +0.08%, and energy, which fell -0.50%.
Other notable indexes closed higher. The Russell 2000 (RTY) rose +0.14%, and closed -5.40% below its March 4th record high. The Nasdaq Internet Index (QNET) rose +0.28% and is down -6.63% below its March 6th closing high. The Nasdaq Biotech Index (NBI) rose +1.50% and ended -4.35% below its February 25th record high.
NYSE volume fell -7.56% to 516.67 million shares, compared to 558.95 million shares the prior day, 0.80x the 643.10 million share 20-day moving average volume. Bond markets weakened. In early trading, the U.S. 10-year yield rose to an early 2.4405% intraday high,but moved lower as world bond markets strengthened, with a late morning 2.3891% intraday low. The index ended at 2.3927%, down -0.88 bps from the 2.4015% prior close.
From its prior day 1946.72 SPX close, September 2014 SPX futures (SPM4) suggested a moderately higher open. In early trading, the index rose to the 1950, then trended higher through the session to a late 1955.23. The index closed at 1955.18, +81.9% above the 1074.77 October 4, 2011, intraday low, the bottom of the most recent correction.
From its prior day 8,209.57 close, the DJ Transportation index (TRAN) rose +0.66%, outpacing the DJI's +0.37% gain, closing -2.41% off its July 24th record close. The index initially traded narrowly around breakeven, but rallied from late morning through the afternoon to a late 8,264.46 intraday high. The index closed at 8,264.15. Volume rose +19.1% to 10.044million shares, compared to 8.431 million shares the prior session, and 0.82x the 15-day moving average volume. The TRAN closed +0.33% and +0.65% above its respective 20- and 50-day moving averages, and +3.75% and +8.44% above its respective 100- and 200-day moving averages.
Market volatility fell, as the CBOE SPX volatility index (VIX) fell -3.72% to 12.42, compared to 12.90 at the prior close. The VIX set an early 13.13 intraday high, but quickly fell to 12.50, then moved narrowly around 12.70 through late afternoon, when it fell to close at its intraday low. The VIX's all-time closing low is 9.31, on December 22, 1993. Its record high is 89.53 in December 2008. Its lifetime average is 20.01. The CBOE put/call SKEW rose +2.62% to 126.93, compared to 123.69 the prior session, above a neutral 115-120 range, but below 130 for the first time since June 18th, a level that correlates well with short-term market tops. Its record 143.26 high came on June 20th.
The market's technical factors improved. The SPX relative strength (RSI) rose to 52.59, compared to 49.43 the prior day, in the middle of a neutral range. The latest RSI compares to an oversold 32.85 on August 7th, an overbought 73.73 on June 9th, and an oversold 31.24 on February 3rd, its previous yearly low. The RSI compares to an overbought 71.26 on December 31st, when the SPX closed at an earlier record high, and compares to earlier oversold levels of 35.14 on August 27th and 39.19 on October 9th.
This week, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +1.22%, +0.96%, +1.88%, and +0.76%, respectively. Last week, the SPX, DJI, and Nasdaq closed up +0.33%, +0.37%, and +0.42%, respectively, but the NYSE composite closed off -0.01%. In August, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +1.27%, +0.91%, +1.90%, and +0.71%, respectively. In July, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed down up -1.51%, -1.56%, -0.87%, and -2.30%, respectively.
In 2014, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite are up +5.78%, +0.83%, +6.62%, and +3.87%, respectively. In 2013, the SPX, DJI, Nasdaq, and NYSE composite closed up +29.6%, +26.5%, +38.2%, +23.2%, respectively. All closed at least +5.91% higher in 2012.
KBW Bank Index (BKX). On still lower and below 15-day average volume, the BKX rose +0.32% to 69.35, compared to 69.13 at the prior day's close, -4.88% below its 72.91 March 20th post-2008 closing high. The index gapped higher and rallied to 69.40 in early trading, which proved resistance through early afternoon. The index dipped back to 69.30 in the final hours, but improved into the close. Volume fell -16.5% to 24.123 million shares, compared to 28.880 million shares the prior day, and 0.61x the 39.400 million share 15-day moving average.
Large cap banks outperformed the regional banks, as the KBW regional banking index (KRX) fell -0.18%.
This week, the BKX is up +0.44%. Last week, the BKX closed off -0.48%. In August, the BKX is down -1.44%, compared to July, when the BKX closed off -1.64%. In 2014, the BKX is down -0.19%, compared to the SPX's +5.32% gain. In 2013, the BKX rose +35.1%, better than the SPX's +29.6% rise.
The BKX is now +17.2% better than the June 24, 2013, 59.19 close, its worst since May 13, 2013. The index crossed above 50 on December 17, 2012, 60 on May 15, 2013, and 70 on January 8, 2014, but then dropped back below 70 on January 24th, which persisted until March 6th. On April 10th, the BKX fell below 70.00 and then eased consistently to the May 15th 66.81 closing low, its lowest close since early February. On June 5th, the BKX rose back above 70, but then again surrendered that level on August 1st.
The BKX closed +113.0% above the 32.56 intraday low on October 4, 2011, the bottom of that year's correction. Large-cap bank stocks have outperformed the broader market's rebound, with the SPX up +81.9% in the same period. The BKX index closed -42.7% below its February 20, 2007, record 121.06 high. The BKX is up +272.5% from its 18.62 March 6, 2009, closing low, its low at the end of the 2008-09 financial panic.
Technical indicators were little changed, as the index again closed above its 200-day moving average, but the 50-day moving average was unchanged after declining the prior day. The average closed -0.82%, -1.94%, and -0.89% below its 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages, but +0.34% above its 200-day moving average. The 20-day moving average fell -4 bps to 69.92. The 70.72 50-day moving average was unchanged. Its 69.98 100-day moving average fell -3 bps, and the 200-day moving average rose +2 bps to 69.11. The 20-day closed (by -0.80 points) below the 50-day, and the negative gap widened -3 bps. The 50-day moving average closed (by +1.61 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap fell -2 bps. The 100-day moving average closed (by +0.86 points) above the 200-day moving average, and the gap narrowed -6 bps.
The directional movement indicator improved to -9.078, compared to -11.206 the prior day, its 11th consecutive negative reading since July 30th. Relative strength improved to 45.21, compared to 43.16 the prior day, in a neutral range, down from an overbought 73.14 on June 9th, but compares to up from the recent lows of 32.95 on February 3rd and 31.08 on November 14, 2012, which is also the date of the BKX's 2012 closing low. Next resistance is 69.50; next support is 68.18.
SPX, DJI, RTY, TRAN, CCMP, NYA, VIX, SKEW, NKY, EURUSD, USGG10YR, HSI, SHCOMP, SX5E, CAC, DAX, FTSE, JPY, GBP, EUR