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H. T. Love
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Spent over 30 years in computer systems work, many different functions. Owned my own business for awhile. Got tired of it (managing employees is not my baliwick) and stopped doing it professionally. Did other things, off and on, for some more years and finally bumped into this investing/trading... More
  • AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 9/6/2012 - Xx/xx/2012 19 comments
    Oct 13, 2012 5:18 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    This is the third installment off the original "AXPW: Some Intra-Day Trade Charting" instablogs I've started doing on Seeking Alpha. The others grew, as I added daily commentary and FINRA data, to the point I was afraid the load time might become an irritant for folks that have less internet bandwidth or older computing equipment so I've started rolling to new one aperiodically.

    Versions subsequent to the original (latest to oldest) can be found here.

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 7/7/2012 - 9/5/2012

    I've started chopping off the daily EOD summary lines that have low, high, close, short and buy:sell stuff so that only more recent, and therefore likely more useful, data will be available. This is an effort to keep the blog from getting ever longer. They remain in past versions in earlier editions of this instablog.

    I've been manually collecting this data while volume was low and it was therefore reasonable to do so. I'll stop when it gets too large unless I can craft a mechanized capture of most of the stuff.

    I'll update this daily as long as I can for anybody that might find it useful. The chart will stay here and the text updates expressing my most recent thoughts will follow after the chart.

    The prior instablog contained some links and brief discussion regarding who might be selling and when these big sellers may be exhausted. That discussion has been excised from this edition, but is still available in the instablog ending 9/5/2012..

    A new concern, for me, is that JP noted that Special Situations, who had been exiting their position, seems to be increasing their position. I suspect they may have mutated into swing traders. If that is the case, they have the wherewithal to move price and increase the volatility of the equity. We need to watch their filings going forward to see if their actions support that concern.

    THOUGHTS ABOUT DAILY SHORT SALES
    Because 9/7 daily short sales were so low I took the time to examine the lowest 23 occurrences, including zero values, and most cases of short sales this low led to flat and down sequences unless the buy percentages were in more normal territory and even some of these led to down or flat and then down near-term moves.

    We do have to keep in mind that most of these instances were already in strong down trends when we know we had large sellers from various sources dumping shares. But that's not what's interesting.

    Most of the time, recently, a spike up is followed by a choppy trend down to extremely low percentages followed by spikes up again, in a cycle.

    What's interesting is the potential answer to "If short sales are weak, what's forcing weak price action?". In the past I've stated what I believe are the mechanics that allow this. Some discount this scenario but what I see supports it. Iterating ...

    If shares are sold that are not in the control of the seller FINRA and SEC rules mandate that the sell be flagged as a short sale. Shares from prior sell orders, which the market-maker shorted, can flow into the market-makers' portfolios leaving them (temporarily) in a long position with shares from which they've already profited. They can let these shares get "netted out" by normal settlement procedures or, if they have covered some or all of these shorts with covering buys, sell these incoming shares to the market and maintain or increase their profit.

    We know:
    - we've had heavy selling pressure almost continuously since I began tracking this stuff;
    - a very high percentage of the early selling pressure would result in short sales (certificate conversion);
    - spike-to-low cycle(s) prior to June was a long and steady down trend;
    - most shares already in street name will hit the market-maker(s) in T+3 days or less;
    - spike-to-low interval has become much shorter since the start of June than it was prior to that;
    - this is around the time the Mega-C shares may have become available;
    - the Mega-C shares were already in street name (meaning no certificate conversion was needed);
    - Manatuck Hill shares are not in certificate form(?) - we don't know if they are selling;
    - Blackrock has shares in street name(?) and has sold some, may be selling some;
    - Special Situations sold some, bought some and should be in street name and could be selling;
    - sell orders most often result in short sales as the market-maker doesn't "own" these shares yet;
    - most shares being sold now do not require certificate conversion and delivery in <= T+3 is normal;
    - shares backing sell orders will generally flow to the market-maker in three (or fewer) days;
    - the market-makers can let the incoming shares net out their short positions;
    - market-makers can set opening price ranges and can move price in low-volume environments;
    - the market-makers can choose to make covering buys in the market if prices are attractive;
    - if (some) prior short-sold shares have been covered already, arriving shares can be sold:
    - the market-makers are profit-driven and do try to maximize profit.

    I believe:
    - selling pressure has been consistent enough that if the market-maker(s) are never getting long, short sales percentages would be more consistent - less volatility - how much unknown because;
    - the variable arrival times and sporadic changes in selling behavior mask the trends;
    - the current share price and volume of AXPW is such that many market-makers, with good capitalization, can be temporarily long in AXPW with little or no substantive impact on the capital reserve requirements mentioned by John Peterson;
    - the volatility and down trend of price, both long-term and intra-day, make covering buys attractive;
    - the trends and choppiness shown on the price and short sales chart suggest market-makers may be doing covering buys and then selling arriving shares backing prior short sales;
    - this strategy would result in a smaller (reducing?) percentage of short sales;
    - the market-makers have incentive to get the best price on these incoming shares;
    - the best way to do that, when buying is sufficient, is to post high asks and let buyers meet the ask;
    - the new "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" metric, although as yet unproven, supports this scenario because;
    - even if selling is high (suggested by buy:sell ratio), market-maker short sales percentage is reduced by selling market-maker long positions;
    - at some point the long position of the market-maker(s) is reduced to normal (near-zero long?);
    - incoming sell orders which must be flagged short are then a larger percentage of market-maker sells.

    I have seen no other rational scenario advanced that accounts for what we see on the charts viz-a-viz buy:sell, daily short sales, price action and the as-yet-unproven "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" metric (see daily commentary for running values and averages).

    Until another rational scenario appears, I believe that the above accounts for:
    - the tendency for short percentage to trend lower after every spike except the recent one of 8/17 (I believe other factors dominated then - see below);
    - the tendency of price to not trend up, in most cases, even as buy:sell and daily short percentages improve to more normal ranges, and even very positive ranges in many cases;
    - the tendency to see another spike in daily short sales percentage after it has moved to and below averages in every case except the recent 8/17 case (but that cycle may not be yet completed - see below) as market-maker long positions are quickly depleted (and this is masked by the constant ebb and flow of trades and positions).

    8/17/2012 is different.
    Looking at the short sales and volume chart, we see, effectively, a double or triple spike in the daily short sales percentages. If you compare it to the prior spikes you note that the retrace was both initially shallower and shorter before another spike occurred - it was, in fact, no re-trace at all! The real re-trace did not begin until 8/27. Even then, again note the difference - no choppy, but sustained, trend down occurred. Instead, about mid-way down, we observe, for about a week, vacillation around the longer-term averages. Then in the span of four days, we see an almost straight down move to an extreme low of daily short percentages.

    What's it all about Alfie?

    We can only guess. We may have seen the equivalent of a "blow-off" as the last vestiges of the current bigger sellers finished up. It did occur leading into EOM. The near-straight drop to an extreme low percentage (and absolute short volume) began the first week of the new month. Based on JP's rough estimates and what I've been seeing on the charts, I've been suggesting that the bigger sellers were near exhausted here. Since the volume has been relatively low and the $0.30 level, which demonstrated some support in the past, held up ...

    I think we need to watch over the next week or so and see what happens to all these metrics. If the sellers are indeed done with their dastardly deeds for a while, we stand a decent chance to see some price appreciation. Daily short sales percentages should move up, but only into more-or-less normal ranges.

    In the below chart note that the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!

    (click to enlarge)AXPW Intra-day Statistics Chart 20121012

    In the charts above I had to:
    - estimate 3/27 buy:sell ratio because I couldn't get ADVFN screen-shots that day,
    - omit 3/28 data due to garbage from the ADVFN feed.

    10/12/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 35, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 238970, AvTrSz: 6828
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3250, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3108
    # Buys, Shares: 20 104095, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3121
    # Sells, Shares: 15 134875, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3098
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.30 (43.6% "buys"), DlyShts 34150 (14.3%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 25.32%

    On the traditional TA front, we continue to see reducing volume coming off the bump up to a high of $0.334 on 10/9 with price holding strong at $0.30 or more (only ~11K traded below that price since). What I am calling a "pause" and is normally termed "short-term consolidation" seems to be going on and there are, as yet, no signs of a lengthening of a leg down. The lows are staying right around the 50-day SMA (which, as I mentioned before, will change from descending to flattening).

    In the three days subsequent to that high, we've had generally lower highs and higher lows (price compression), a further indication of consolidation. Our intra-day VWAPs ($0.3105, $0.3160 and $0.3108) have stayed above all the SMAs (all but the 200-day are at $0.3038 or lower) by a penny or more except the 200-day SMA at $0.3726. The 200-day has begun to flatten out and will shortly begin a substantial rise, eventually going parabolic, unless price drops really big-time (like 5 to 10 cents or more quite quickly).

    A notable thing about the price action is that it is supporting my contention that volatility is leaving our beloved penny stock for now. We've not had this many days hovering around or above the 50-day SMA since a long-term consolidation ended back on 5/15. That extended period around and above the 50-day SMA ran from 4/3 (a bit over two months after hitting $0.64) through 5/14, about 1.5 months.

    A few oscillators have, naturally, begun to weaken, going from slightly bullish towards more neutral as we consolidate. But the RSI is more bullish at 64+ than last time we were in this range off a short run up (peaking at 61+ during 7/20-7/30 period, which has a similar price-action configuration and range). This "positive divergence" is considered important by many of the traditional TA folks and should be given some weight, although I personally am unsure of how much. MFI, a money-flow oscillator, is also still strong at ~79.2, just below "overbought" and also stronger than in that prior period.

    Between the 50-day SMA and the falling resistance (currently ~$0.32) it looks like price is trying to decide whether to break down or up or just go sideways for a while. At least we did pull away from the descending support, as I was hoping we would. I don't believe we'll revisit it (now at ~$0.265 and falling) because there's several minor support points above it.

    With the 10-day SMA having just crossed above the 50, and the 20-day not far behind (about a penny) with slightly lower prices getting ready to fall out of the measurement period, I'm thinking that our exit should be up towards the $0.33 range or above again. But that thought is likely influenced by wishful thinking, not dispassionate analysis.

    What's my experimental stuff suggesting (and am I interpreting it correctly)?

    First, a note on today's average trade size. We know that 4 trades totaling 100K shares for Poul went off, two at 50K and 40K respectively. Backing those two out would move today's value from right in all the averages and on the long-term trend line, looking to be right in the midst of "retail" sizes, to 4,418 - below what appears to be long-term (around 4 months) "normal" retail trading ranges. This would also bump our VWAP slightly to $0.3114.

    Our daily short-sales percentages continue to trend towards lower peaks and higher valleys, with all the averages becoming more consolidated with our 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages respectively standing at 27.74%, 24.67%, 25.74% and 26.52%. We did have that double spike on 10/3 and 10/5 as we exited the 18-days below a VWAP of $0.30, but that should be expected as profit-takers appear.

    Our low, high and VWAP price are above the 10 and 25-day averages and, for all intents and purposes, at the 50-day average. Prices have been in an up trend since 10/1, risking becoming one of the longer runs up in recent times if our move from here is up.

    Our buy:sell has begun to recover from the recent profit taking and is moving back toward the "buy" averages of 55%, 48%, 50% and 54%, for my usual average intervals - 10, 25, 50 and 100 days.

    Following this stuff is my last extended discussion of daily short sales unless something extraordinary happens. I feel that I've about exhausted the circumstantial evidence suggesting that market-makers do get long and do affect both our intra-day and multi-day price action. No evidence has been presented to counter my conclusions and to continue discussing it sans any contrary facts that might circumstantially refute my conclusions would be wasteful of everybody's time and interest.

    That discussion has been omitted from the concentrator in consideration of the participants here.

    When I do a new instablog, I will be pursuing the inflection point calculations which seems to have offered some promise of leading price changes. A more in-depth visual inspection of my preliminary charts for them has reinforced that preliminary conclusion and they appear to hold great promise.

    The first 26400 shares today went at a VWAP of $0.3139.

    I continue to suspect the normal early-morning activity has a relation to shares backing prior short sales flowing in to market-maker portfolios. On 10/8 there were 31K in short sales and the VWAP for the total volume was $0.3016, with a low of $0.30 and a high of $0.3190. Using a T+3 time, these shares should have arrived into the market-maker portfolios last evening at the latest. On 10/8, 92,825 shares were traded at or above $0.3139, with a VWAP of $0.3165.

    Subsequent intra-day price ranges were:
    10/09 0.3100, 0.3340, VWAP 0.3222
    10/10 0.2920, 0.3300, VWAP 0.3105
    10/11 0.3051, 0.3300, VWAP 0.3160

    As you can see the lows for each day would offer attractive "covering buy" prices and two of the three day's VWAP would also leave room for profit if covering buys were done. So if larger, well-capitalized market-makers (e.g. Citadel, Knight Capital management, ...) were in the markets, and we know they were, I think it highly likely covering buys were done.

    So ~26K early would leave only 5K of the 10/8 short sales unaccounted and there were lots of reasons they could be out of play - covered later today, allowed to net at the DTCC, arrived in a MM portfolio in less than T+3 days, etc.

    More interesting, and possibly supportive of market-makers doing covering buys, is the fact that only 34K shares got shorted today when we know that 100K went at $0.31 ("sells" to Poul) whose trades appear on NITE. If NITE was not long and NITE shorted these (of course the sell could come from any market-maker) there should be at least 100K shorted shares. Ditto if any other market-maker was involved and not long shares.

    The easy conclusion is that one or more market-makers were in a net long position as the day began. But ...

    The obvious counter here is that the trades could have been intra-broker or inter-broker trades, both of which bypass market-makers. I don't know how likely these scenarios are though. An argument against these scenarios and supportive of market-maker involvement is that the 100K went of in several "chunks" - 50K, 40K, 500 and 11.4K over a period of slightly less than six minutes.

    This is indicative of market-maker activity, whereas an intra or inter-broker trade would likely go in a single negotiated trade.

    I conclude again that market-makers are at least temporarily in net-long positions via "covering buys" that increase there profits through both price arbitrage and increase fees from exchanges for more trades being executed by the market-makers.

    The following is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 114.17%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%

    1012 Vol 0238970, Sht 0034150 14.29% LHC 0.3000 0.3250 0.3199 b:s 1:1.30
    1011 Vol 0247500, Sht 0043900 17.74% LHC 0.3051 0.3300 0.3121 b:s 1:1.83
    1010 Vol 0386884, Sht 0030120 07.79% LHC 0.2920 0.3300 0.3099 b:s 1:2.69
    1009 Vol 0317310, Sht 0041475 13.07% LHC 0.3100 0.3340 0.3200 b:s 1.02:1
    1008 Vol 0217663, Sht 0031000 14.24% LHC 0.3000 0.3190 0.3170 b:s 1.02:1[50]
    1005 Vol 0387473, Sht 0233663 60.30% LHC 0.2965 0.3079 0.3079 b:s 10.15:1[49]
    1004 Vol 0269932, Sht 0113567 42.07% LHC 0.2965 0.3100 0.2965 b:s 1.54:1[48]
    1003 Vol 0392737, Sht 0215214 54.80% LHC 0.2850 0.3000 0.3000 b:s 8.93:1[47]
    1002 Vol 0597796, Sht 0103751 17.36% LHC 0.2610 0.3050 0.2900 b:s 2.87:1
    1001 Vol 0543197, Sht 0193537 35.63% LHC 0.2520 0.2780 0.2650 b:s 1.08:1
    0928 Vol 0348776, Sht 0085189 24.43% LHC 0.2530 0.2810 0.2700 b:s 1.03:1[46]
    0927 Vol 0498773, Sht 0034858 06.99% LHC 0.2650 0.2840 0.2700 b:s 1:3.11
    0926 Vol 0376833, Sht 0160300 42.54% LHC 0.2790 0.2945 0.2880 b:s 1.11:1
    0925 Vol 0842898, Sht 0280168 33.24% LHC 0.2705 0.2865 0.2850 b:s 1:1.91
    0924 Vol 0505646, Sht 0022580 04.47% LHC 0.2800 0.2923 0.2800 b:s 1:7.23
    0921 Vol 0236689, Sht 0036000 15.21% LHC 0.2870 0.2960 0.2960 b:s 1.87:1[45]
    0920 Vol 0258805, Sht 0054400 21.02% LHC 0.2840 0.2940 0.2900 b:s 1:1.03[44]
    0919 Vol 0319516, Sht 0032210 10.08% LHC 0.2840 0.2950 0.2890 b:s 1:2.59[43]
    0918 Vol 0433675, Sht 0038829 08.95% LHC 0.2830 0.3050 0.2850 b:s 1:2.51[42]
    0917 Vol 0181500, Sht 0042600 23.47% LHC 0.2900 0.3090 0.2950 b:s 1:2.44[41]
    0914 Vol 0259600, Sht 0116800 44.99% LHC 0.2910 0.3100 0.2910 b:s 3.29:1[40]
    0913 Vol 0171280, Sht 0099505 58.09% LHC 0.2886 0.3000 0.3000 b:s 3.34:1
    0912 Vol 0482927, Sht 0084685 17.54% LHC 0.2806 0.3000 0.2900 b:s 1:1.58[39]
    0911 Vol 0230273, Sht 0048678 50.20% LHC 0.2910 0.3000 0.3000 b:s 1.37:1
    0910 Vol 0464034, Sht 0068918 14.85% LHC 0.2904 0.3040 0.2949 b:s 1:1.62[38]
    0907 Vol 0258695, Sht 0005000 01.93% LHC 0.3000 0.3098 0.3000 b:s 1:1.79
    0906 Vol 0419000, Sht 0055006 13.13% LHC 0.3010 0.3190 0.3080 b:s 1:3.77[37]
    0905 Vol 0234720, Sht 0036857 15.70% LHC 0.3150 0.3250 0.3150 b:s 1:2.00
    0904 Vol 0100094, Sht 0014955 14.94% LHC 0.3151 0.3240 0.3200 b:s 3.80:1[36]
    0831 Vol 0347000, Sht 0148300 42.74% LHC 0.3120 0.3250 0.3200 b:s 1.47:1[35]
    0830 Vol 0158350, Sht 0029517 18.64% LHC 0.3110 0.3297 0.3155 b:s 1:2.34[34]
    0829 Vol 0171061, Sht 0065081 38.05% LHC 0.3152 0.3300 0.3200 b:s 1.83:1[33]
    0828 Vol 0244930, Sht 0091679 33.88% LHC 0.3275 0.3349 0.3300 b:s 1:1.58
    0827 Vol 0379015, Sht 0076050 20.07% LHC 0.3260 0.3400 0.3300 b:s 1:1.37
    0824 Vol 0354522, Sht 0194727 54.93% LHC 0.3256 0.3400 0.3299 b:s 2.68:1
    0823 Vol 0925685, Sht 0454735 49.12% LHC 0.3012 0.3380 0.3380 b:s 1.85:1[32]
    0822 Vol 0525637, Sht 0339699 64.63% LHC 0.3000 0.3050 0.3049 b:s 12.9:1
    0821 Vol 0304212, Sht 0156380 51.40% LHC 0.2900 0.3050 0.3049 b:s 2.03:1
    0820 Vol 0427246, Sht 0217826 50.98% LHC 0.3000 0.3050 0.3000 b:s 1.53:1
    0817 Vol 0930726, Sht 0582984 62.64% LHC 0.2800 0.3025 0.3000 b:s 5.32:1[31]
    0816 Vol 1171040, Sht 0207630 17.73% LHC 0.2961 0.3100 0.3000 b:s 1.93:1[30]
    0815 Vol 0764351, Sht 0155100 20.29% LHC 0.2860 0.3050 0.2996 b:s 2.53:1
    0814 Vol 0444854, Sht 0011257 02.53% LHC 0.2900 0.3070 0.3000 b:s 1:4.82
    0813 Vol 0184415, Sht 0039200 21.26% LHC 0.3000 0.3085 0.3069 b:s 1:5.48
    0810 Vol 0353845, Sht 0082200 23.23% LHC 0.3024 0.3100 0.3050 b:s 1:2.18
    0809 Vol 0099470, Sht 0035000 35.19% LHC 0.3023 0.3100 0.3099 b:s 1.10:1
    0808 Vol 0235510, Sht 0005100 02.17% LHC 0.3010 0.3199 0.3099 b:s 1:1.185
    0807 Vol 0115193, Sht 0010981 09.53% LHC 0.3100 0.3199 0.3103 b:s 2.41:1
    0806 Vol 0164530, Sht 0015600 09.48% LHC 0.3010 0.3200 0.3199 b:s 1.11:1[29]
    0803 Vol 0256566, Sht 0000000 00.00% LHC 0.3000 0.3200 0.3013 b:s 1:3.64
    0802 Vol 0471500, Sht 0133000 28.21% LHC 0.3000 0.3300 0.3025 b:s 1:1.51
    0801 Vol 0180429, Sht 0003900 02.16% LHC 0.3220 0.3398 0.3300 b:s 1:10.14
    0731 Vol 0119399, Sht 0026781 22.43% LHC 0.3330 0.3399 0.3394 b:s 1:1.13
    0730 Vol 0196534, Sht 0086700 44.11% LHC 0.3221 0.3400 0.3390 b:s 2.85:1
    0727 Vol 0166660, Sht 0095130 57.08% LHC 0.3350 0.3450 0.3351 b:s 6.04:1[28]
    0726 Vol 0468100, Sht 0020500 04.38% LHC 0.3300 0.3450 0.3400 b:s 1:1.27[27]
    0725 Vol 0279175, Sht 0023812 08.53% LHC 0.3300 0.3500 0.3400 b:s 1:1.05[26]
    0724 Vol 0267464, Sht 0097464 36.44% LHC 0.3190 0.3498 0.3290 b:s 2.32:1[25]
    0723 Vol 0425158, Sht 0139089 32.71% LHC 0.3100 0.3445 0.3445 b:s 2.63:1
    0720 Vol 0494205, Sht 0250209 50.63% LHC 0.3000 0.3300 0.3250 b:s 2.63:1[24]
    0719 Vol 0742608, Sht 0103200 13.90% LHC 0.2650 0.3150 0.2950 b:s 1:2.92
    0718 Vol 0155930, Sht 0094130 60.37% LHC 0.3000 0.3100 0.3030 b:s 1.95:1[23]
    0717 Vol 0699896, Sht 0193437 27.64% LHC 0.2955 0.3200 0.3000 b:s 1:1.12
    0716 Vol 0454228, Sht 0329088 72.45% LHC 0.3100 0.3220 0.3150 b:s 4.07:1
    0713 Vol 0296133, Sht 0044000 14.86% LHC 0.3125 0.3260 0.3220 b:s 2.08:1
    0712 Vol 0084702, Sht 0035802 42.27% LHC 0.3220 0.3420 0.3250 b:s 2.32:1[21]
    0711 Vol 0613489, Sht 0083397 13.59% LHC 0.3220 0.3444 0.3270 b:s 1:2.26
    0710 Vol 1256989, Sht 0266270 21.18% LHC 0.3220 0.3500 0.3271 b:s 1:2.88
    0709 Vol 0273667, Sht 0084923 31.03% LHC 0.3440 0.3599 0.3450 b:s 1.63:1[20]
    0706 Vol 0357574, Sht 0216160 60.45% LHC 0.3406 0.3500 0.3450 b:s 6.75:1[19]
    0705 Vol 0033600, Sht 0002500 07.44% LHC 0.3300 0.3500 0.3500 b:s 1.64:1[18]
    0703 Vol 0068869, Sht 0009588 13.92% LHC 0.3498 0.3500 0.3499 b:s 5.89:1
    0702 Vol 0155306, Sht 0038196 24.59% LHC 0.3350 0.3500 0.3500 b:s 50.77:1
    0629 Vol 0132580, Sht 0014400 10.86% LHC 0.3300 0.3439 0.3439 b:s 1:1.17[17]
    0628 Vol 0178419, Sht 0012875 07.22% LHC 0.3303 0.3498 0.3350 b:s 1.55:1
    0627 Vol 0038050, Sht 0001000 02.63% LHC 0.3370 0.3500 0.3450 b:s 1:1.10[16]
    0626 Vol 0146951, Sht 0068051 46.31% LHC 0.3391 0.3500 0.3450 b:s 6.62:1[15]
    0625 Vol 0110396, Sht 0043600 39.49% LHC 0.3350 0.3500 0.3350 b:s 1.67:1[14]
    0622 Vol 0307804, Sht 0130667 42.45% LHC 0.3349 0.3500 0.3500 b:s 4.61:1
    0621 Vol 0105850, Sht 0032150 30.37% LHC 0.3321 0.3500 0.3479 b:s 51.93:1
    0620 Vol 0096235, Sht 0016685 17.34% LHC 0.3400 0.3500 0.3499 b:s 5.16:1[13]
    0619 Vol 0304080, Sht 0159006 52.29% LHC 0.3300 0.3500 0.3495 b:s 3.16:1
    0618 Vol 0079382, Sht 0005000 06.30% LHC 0.3052 0.3449 0.3311 b:s 2.10:1
    0615 Vol 0210011, Sht 0073800 35.14% LHC 0.3010 0.3400 0.3400 b:s 10.76:1
    0614 Vol 0434858, Sht 0050925 11.71% LHC 0.3000 0.3090 0.3090 b:s 1:3.96
    0613 Vol 0096728, Sht 0019048 19.69% LHC 0.3010 0.3100 0.3060 b:s 1.11:1
    0612 Vol 0588233, Sht 0136133 23.14% LHC 0.3052 0.3250 0.3070 b:s 1:2.60
    0611 Vol 0198576, Sht 0053800 27.09% LHC 0.3150 0.3345 0.3250 b:s 1:1.43
    0608 Vol 0131165, Sht 0006000 04.57% LHC 0.3240 0.3500 0.3479 b:s 1:1.24
    0607 Vol 0013803, Sht 0001900 13.77% LHC 0.3421 0.3500 0.3490 b:s 3.18:1
    0606 Vol 0204575, Sht 0133750 65.38% LHC 0.3420 0.3500 0.3500 b:s 2.28:1
    0605 Vol 0157000, Sht 0073858 47.04% LHC 0.3401 0.3500 0.3500 b:s 6.85:1
    0604 Vol 0152292, Sht 0013200 08.67% LHC 0.3220 0.3500 0.3380 b:s 1:4.53
    0601 Vol 0062000, Sht 0008000 12.90% LHC 0.3320 0.3409 0.3409 b:s 1.57:1
    0531 Vol 0158067, Sht 0030319 19.18% LHC 0.3310 0.3500 0.3450 b:s 1:3.28
    0530 Vol 0389900, Sht 0157100 40.29% LHC 0.3400 0.3650 0.3500 b:s 1.59:1
    0529 Vol 0118006, Sht 0035506 30.09% LHC 0.3400 0.3800 0.3640 b:s 12.15:1
    0525 Vol 0140057, Sht 0040600 28.99% LHC 0.3480 0.3555 0.3480 b:s 1.96:1
    0524 Vol 0220877, Sht 0073291 33.18% LHC 0.3300 0.3598 0.3594 b:s 1:1.50
    0523 Vol 0482294, Sht 0180210 37.37% LHC 0.3400 0.3698 0.3501 b:s 1.02:1
    0522 Vol 0133015, Sht 0032150 24.17% LHC 0.3450 0.3650 0.3501 b:s 2.46:1[12]
    0521 Vol 0253600, Sht 0085000 33.52% LHC 0.3500 0.3754 0.3500 b:s 2.66:1
    0518 Vol 0354724, Sht 0065695 18.52% LHC 0.3310 0.3600 0.3500 b:s 1:1.44
    0517 Vol 0525836, Sht 0070200 13.35% LHC 0.3400 0.3799 0.3500 b:s 1:5.07
    0516 Vol 0571819, Sht 0238018 41.62% LHC 0.3601 0.4100 0.3799 b:s 1:1.12[11]
    0515 Vol 0503859, Sht 0116091 23.04% LHC 0.3700 0.4200 0.3801 b:s 1:2.64
    0514 Vol 0278334, Sht 0078500 28.20% LHC 0.4100 0.4280 0.4200 b:s 1.31:1
    0511 Vol 0236187, Sht 0020200 08.55% LHC 0.4106 0.4280 0.4200 b:s 1:1.27
    0510 Vol 0117575, Sht 0000000 00.00% LHC 0.4100 0.4200 0.4150 b:s 2.43:1
    0509 Vol 0116441, Sht 0004141 03.56% LHC 0.4100 0.4200 0.4150 b:s 1:2.76
    0508 Vol 0079083, Sht 0012524 15.84% LHC 0.4120 0.4280 0.4121 b:s 3.46:1
    0507 Vol 0080830, Sht 0009734 12.04% LHC 0.4110 0.4289 0.4200 b:s 1:4.25
    0504 Vol 0190417, Sht 0008500 04.46% LHC 0.4241 0.4400 0.4241 b:s 2.07:1
    0503 Vol 0181530, Sht 0028500 15.70% LHC 0.4300 0.4400 0.4350 b:s 1:1.04
    0502 Vol 0143270, Sht 0016000 11.17% LHC 0.4300 0.4549 0.4410 b:s 1:1.39
    0501 Vol 0222824, Sht 0008132 03.65% LHC 0.4300 0.4500 0.4301 b:s 1.23:1

    [11] Including 45K in pre-market trades in both total and short sales gives 616,819 and 283,018 respectively. This would put the short sales percentage at ~45.9%.
    [12] AH "sells" of 11K @ $0.35 don't appear in the FINRA numbers. Adding that to shorts, because they were "sells", gives 43,150 and 30%.
    [13] 10K pre-market trades not included. Including those moves volume to 106,235 and short percentage to 15.7%.
    [14] Including AH 11K sell @ $0.335 as short would make short percentage 45%.
    [15] Including 2 AH trades of 16K and 20K takes volume to 182,951. Treated as non-short (since they are "buys") would move short to 37.2%. If they were short sales that figure moves to 56.9%.
    [16] An AH trade of 3.8K does not appear in FINRA data. Volume's so low it doesn't see worthwhile to calculate the effect on short sales, but you can do the scenarios if you desire.
    [17] An AH trade of 13K, which doesn't show in FINRA numbers, is almost exactly 10% of daily volume through EOD, 132580 (FINRA's total). This trade at $0.34 (classified as "buy" with bid/ask $0.33/$0.344 then) seems most likely to be a short sale by the market-maker that accounts for shares (to be?) sold by Quercus. Excluding this trade entirely from EOD stats would move buy:sell ratio to 1:1.46. Presuming it was a short sale, not a "buy", would move the ratio to 1:1.70. Moreover, adding it to the FINRA volume as *not* a short sale would move the short sale percentage to 9.9% from the reported 10.86%. If those shares were short sales, the volume of short would move to 27,400 (18.8%), when including the 13K in both total and short sales volume.
    [18] An AH trade of 9.4K @ $0.3450, almost precisely 10% of the volume prior, 94.4K. I believe this is a Quercus-related trade. This volume is *not* included on FINRA-provided data. Adding that volume to both total and short sales would bring TO BE CONTINUED - FINRA REPORTED ERRONEOUS DATA (MISSING ~75% OF TRADES)!
    UPDATE: FINRA reported corrected data 7/12 with a short volume of 8,200 (7.9%) vs. the originally reported volume of 33,600 and short sales of 2,500 07.44%. I've changed the record above to reflect the correct values.
    [19] There was a 35K AH trade @ $0.345 that was 9.8% of the volume prior to that trade and I believe this was a Quercus-related trade. Adding this volume to both the day's total (upping it to 392,574) and short sales (taking that volume to 251,160) would yield 64% short sales for the day.
    [20] AH trade of 28K @ $0.3450, likely Quercus since it's 1/11th (~10%) of day's preceding volume).
    [21] There was a 5K "buy" @ $0.3420 just barely before the open, 09:29:38, that will not appear in the FINRA-reported daily volumes. With that, FINRA volumes indicate 42.27% short, higher than what I would report. *IF* that was a short sale, which we don't know, my calculated short percentage using FINRA numbers with the 5K added to both total and short volume, would be 45.5%
    [22] AH trade of 9K @ $0.30 a buy. Adding this to daily volume would take short percentage down to 27.3%. If we also include it as a short sale (reasonable as most after hour sales seem related to a Quercus sale, although it was only ~1.3% of daily total prior to that trade - much lower than the normal 10%), short percentage moves to 28.6%.
    [23] An apparent Quercus-related AH trade of 15.5K, which would not appear in FINRA data, would move the calculated short percentage to 54.91%, if include in just the total volume, and to 63.4% if included there and in short sales both.
    [24] AH trade of 15K shares at $0.31. It is not near 1/11th of the daily volume, as has been the case when we saw trades apparently associated with Quercus selling. If the normal 10% was involved, the size would have been around 46.3K. Adding the 15K to total volume would move short sales percentage to 49.1%. Adding it to short sales as well would but the percentage at 52.1%.
    [25] AH trade of 5,566 shares doesn't show on FINRA data. Adding to the day's volume would move short sales percentage to 35.7% and adding also to short sales would more the percentage to 37.7%.
    [26] A pre-market trade of 14K @ $0.35. Adding this to FINRA volume lowers the short percentage to 8.1%. If I also add it to the short sales, it goes to 37,812, ~12.9%.
    [27] 4,401 shares traded after-hours. It set the day's low at $0.33 and doesn't seem of the nature that we could attribute it to Quercus or any of our other larger sellers. With it being less than 1% of our total volume, it wouldn't have a noticeable effect on either short sales or buy:sell ratio.
    [28] It looks like Quercus was in - we had a 16K AH "buy" at $0.335, almost exactly 10% of the volume prior to that trade. Adding the 16K AH trade to FINRA day's volume would lower that short percentage to my calculated percentage, 52.1%. Adding it to the short sales too would increase the FINRA and my calculated percentage to 60.8%.
    [29] There was an AH trade of 930 shares at $0.3050, below the close of $0.3199. But the trade was marked pr. seq. by ADVFN, indicating that it was a trade that occurred earlier in the day.
    [30] 45 seconds after the close the was an AH trade of 27.7K @ $0.30 which is not included on the FINRA data. Adding this to the FINRA-reported volume moves short percentage from 17.73% to 17.2%. If we assume it was a short sale and also add it to the short sales volume, the percentage moves to 19.5%.
    [31] At 9:18:40 a pre-market trade of 5K at $0.30 went that will not appear on the FINRA-reported data. Adding this to the FINRA volume would bring the short sales percentage from 62.64% to 62.3% Adding it also to the short sales would move the percentage to 62.8%.
    [32] Two pre-market 25K trades, one at $0.305 and the other at $0.307, aren't included in the FINRA data. Adding them to total volume would move it to 975,685 and short percentage from 49.12% to 46.6%. If, however, we also add those to the short sales the percentage moves to 51.7%.
    [33] The short sales included a reporting of 6,846 "exempt" shares in the daily short sales. Backing these out of the short sales would yield a short percentage of 34.04%, about 4 basis-points down from what I report.
    [34] Two items of note today. An AH trade of 15K @ $0.3155 @ 04:13:49 doesn't appear in the FINRA-reported data. Including this in total volume yields a short sales percentage of 18.64%. If we also include it in short sales, it yields 25.7% short sales. We also had exempt short sales, 10,563, for the second day in a row. Backing these out from the FINRA-reported data moves the calculated percentage from 18.64% to 11.97%. Adding the 15K AH trade to, first, the total volume and then also the adjusted short sales would yield 10.9% and 19.6%.
    [35] A pre-market sale of 5K @ $0.3150 doesn't appear in the FINRA-reported totals. Adding this to the FINRA-reported total volume drops short percentage to 42.1% from the calculated 42.7%. Adding this 5K to shorts as well would move the percentage to 43.6%.
    [36] An AH trades of 10K at $0.3200 is not included in FINRA-reported data. Including this in the volume would move the FINRA-based percentage calculated to my intra-day chart value, 13.6%. If we also assume it was a short sale, the percentage moves to 22.7%.
    [37] An AH trade of 7.6K @ $0.305, a "sell", is not included on the FINRA daily short sales data. Adding this to the FINRA-reported day's volume moves the short s ales percentage from 13.13% to my calculated figure of 12.9%. If it is also added t o the shorts sales, it moves to 14.7%.
    [38] Three pre-market trades occurred, totaling 7.8K at $0.303. Two totaling 7.5K are not included (I don't know why the 300 shares are in there - somebody goofed?) in the FINRA provided volumes. Adding this to the FINRA total volume moves the short sales from the reported 14.85% to my calculated 14.6%. If the 7.5K is also added to the short sales, the short percentage moves to 16.2%.
    [39] An AH trade of 48K at $0.2900 doesn't appear on the FINRA-reported daily short sales. Adding this to FINRA's reported volume of 482,927 moves the short sales from 17.54% percentage to 16%. Adding also to the short sales would yield 25% daily short sales.
    [40] A 10K AH trade @ $0.291, the same price as the last in-market trade of 15K, occurred at 16:23. If this is combined with that 15K trade, it equates to ~10% of the volume prior to those to trades (1/11th of total volume). This makes me think those two trades were a "sell" from Quercus to the market-maker covering his intra-day short sales at a higher price (VWAP was $0.2987). If we add this 10K to the total volume FINRA reports, short sales percentage moves from 44.99% to 43.3%. If we also add it to the short sales the percentage moves to 47%.
    [41] A 2K AH trade at $0.2902 is excluded from the FINRA-provided volumes. If we include this in the total volume the short percentage drops from the calculated 23.47% to 23.2%. If it's also added to short sales, the percentage moves to 24.3%.
    [42] An AH trade @ $0.285 of 16,450 shares is not included in FINRA-provided volumes. Adding this to total volume reduces the calculated short percentage to 8.6% from the calculated 8.95%. If we also add it to the short volume, the percentage moves to 12.3%, a noticeable difference.
    [43] An AH trade of 31K is not included in the FINRA-reported volumes. Adding this to total volume would move the short sale percentage from 10.8% to 9.2%. If we also add it to the short sales, it moves to 19.2%. However, we have about concluded that these are usually "covering buys" and will stop reporting this aspect in the future.
    [44] An AH trade of 25K @ $0.2900 is not reported in the FINRA-reported data. Adding this to the total volume moves the short percentage from 21.02% to 19.2%. We have decided that in most cases this is a covering buy for intra-day short sales and so will cease adding this to shorts and reporting what short percentage might result if those were short sales.
    [45] An AH trade of 4k @ $0.2913 is not included in the FINRA-provided data. Adding ot to the total volume would move the short percentage from 15.21% to 15%. If it's added to short sales as well, the percentage moves to 16.6%.
    [46] Pre-market and AH trades, 5K @ $0.2720 (a "buy") and 5,507 @ $0.26 (a sell) respectively, are not included in the FINRA-reported short sales file. Adding thi s volume to the total volume moves the short percentage from FINRA's 24.43% to my calculated 23.7%. If both were short sales the percentage moves to 25.6%.
    [47] 2 AH trades, 2x10K $0.30 are not in the FINRA-reported numbers. Adding these to total volume move short percentage from 54.8% to 52.1%. If we also add them to short sales, it becomes 57%. I thought these might be Quercus related, but the price is wrong and an Axionista reported at least one was his.
    [48] A pre-market trade of 500 shares at $0.31 and an AH trade of 10K at $0.30 are not included in the FINRA data. Adding these to the FINRA-reported volume lowers the short percentage from 42.07% to 40.5%. If we also add them to the
    short sales it moves to 44.24%.
    [49] We had a strange congruence today of a single identifiable trade that exactly matched the "short exempt" quantity in today's FINRA-reported short sales data. This is a rare event. Moreover, someone suggested the quantity is quite close to the estimated remaining shares held by Quercus. Adding to the intrigue is the fact that ~10% of daily volume is ~35,224 shares so if this was Quercus-related it is a big exception to past behavior of limiting transaction to 10% of the day's volume. What's the magic number? 82,950 shares were reported as "short exempt" and a trade went at 15:52:22 at $0.30 for that quantity. Adding to today's exceptionalism is the fact that 49 trades, or ~72.1% were at $0.30, accounting for 330.8K shares, 77.6% of the day's volume.
    [50] There was a small, 5K, AH trade at $0.319. Adding it to the FINRA total volume moves the short percentage from 14.24% to 13.9%, If we also add it to th e short volume, the percentage moves to 16.2%.

    10/11/2012: EOD stuff, partially posted to concentrator.
    # Trds: 38, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 49750, Vol 247500, AvTrSz: 6513
    Min. Pr: 0.3051, Max Pr: 0.3300, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3160
    # Buys, Shares: 15 87250, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3201
    # Sells, Shares: 22 159750, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3138
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3225
    Buy:Sell 1:1.83 (35.3% "buys"), DlyShts 43900 (17.7%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 27.48%

    Short sales began the recovery I erroneously expected yesterday, from trying to second-guess the T+3 operation I think. If I can learn from my mistakes, I'll try and avoid doing that henceforth. Anyway, as I suggested yesterday, if the market-makers weren't very long from incoming shares the buyers and sellers would be in control. Today it appeared that way as I saw few instances of potential "lures". With the next three days seeing only ~115K shares backing short sales flowing in, I expect that the buyers and sellers will continue in control and the short sales should continue to rise as any new sell orders arriving at the market-makers will require flagging as short unless we have very low volumes of trading.

    This is entirely possible if I've misjudged and we are actually starting a consolidation rather than just taking a pause before pushing up again.

    As I suggested some days back, the volume has indeed tailed off (since 9/24), as we hit $0.33 and withdrew, and is now below all the averages. In normal times I would suggest this says we are entering short-term consolidation again. But this feels a bit different. This feels more like a very brief pause before we start up again. I may be influenced by John's calculation that Quercus is out of shares though, so let's not rely on this feeling too much just yet.

    But there is some potential support for this - see the discussion of the buy:sell inflection points below.

    Considering this, I want to mention my potential maximum 1.5MM shares that might be involved in some profit-taking. First, if we use John's divide by 2, that drops to ~750K. But even if not I suggested I felt it would be much lower because some of the folks that bought in the 18 days below $0.30 would be longer-term holders. Since the price spread narrowed to something closer to normal today and the volume fell off noticeably, those near-term profit-takers might well be gone already. Six consecutive days of VWAP above $0.30 (average VWAP $0.3106) have offered selling opportunities that short-term folks might see as attractive and a move up was rejected at $0.33, which ought to have encouraged any that didn't take advantage on the way up to get out as we started down.

    The fact that selling seemed rather patient today and the buy:sell was in a reasonable range makes me think that almost all the short-term profit-takers might be out now. Any remaining are likely awaiting better prices.

    Had one outlier trade of 49,750 shares at $0.315 today that skewed the trade size noticeably. Removing it takes the average trade size down to 5,345, below the averages of 6050, 6250, 6593, and 6315 for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages respectively. This leaves us in what I think is the low side of the "mid-range" for retail investors.

    Recall that yesterday I suggested that a continued noticeable price drop and/or high(er) volume on a down day would be needed to say we were starting another leg down. We didn't get either of those IMO. VWAP $0.3105 yesterday vs. $0.3160 today with volume of ~396K vs ~248K.

    The buy:sell 10-day average continues improvement and now the 25-day is getting near to tagging along. My four averages are 0.55%, 0.48%, 0.50%, and 0.55% for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages respectively.

    Speaking of which ...

    Mathieu Malecot gave me the key to calculating inflection points some time back. I've been running 10, 25, 50 and 100-day buy:sell inflection point averages since. Today I took a look at the 10-day average since we've had a nice little price bump off of the 18 consecutive days of sub-$0.30 price. I need to examine more periods, but this looks promising.

    Since 9/28, we have inflection point calculations and VWAP as follows.

    -1229.39 0.2715 9/28
    -864.15 0.2596 10/1
    -349.46 0.2873 10/2
    -135.75 0.2983 10/3
    35.27 0.3026 10/4
    -35.56 0.3000 10/5
    349.89 0.3106 10/8
    447.68 0.3222 10/9
    411.06 0.3105 10/10
    612.12 0.3161 10/11

    Share price lows, highs and VWAP have been above the rising 10-day average VWAP six consecutive days now and above the rising 25 and 100-day average VWAP five consecutive days, except that the low has been moving below and above the rising 100-day and is currently above it.

    The following is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 124.04%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%

    10/10/2012: EOD stuff, partially posted to concentrator.
    # Trds: 59, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 39000, Vol 395884, AvTrSz: 6710
    Min. Pr: 0.2920, Max Pr: 0.3300, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3105
    # Buys, Shares: 15 97820, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3133
    # Sells, Shares: 26 263064, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3089
    # Unkn, Shares: 18 35000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3150
    Buy:Sell 1:2.69 (24.7% "buys") DlyShts 30120 (7.6%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 11.45%

    As I suggested earlier, we hit resistance at $0.33 and began a move lower to test support I expected at $0.30. That held, with a small overshoot (only 15,745 shares below $0.30), and I expect today to see narrowing price spread (the spread of 4 cents was excessive for this stock) and reducing volume if the support will hold. If the spread widens and/or volume comes in a lot stronger, then I believe we are in another extended (relatively speaking, of course) leg down back into the $0.2x area. That is not my expectation currently.

    Part of this move was due, I think, to the flow in of shares from prior short sales that had been "covered" and the market-makers were "long" cheap shares. Today we should catch the tail of the last large short day (234K 10/5) since T+3 settlement would have been last evening. Going forward the shorts sales, including today, are just 30K-40K for three days running. So market makers should not be releasing many shares that arrive in their portfolio over the next few days.

    But this means they also have no reason to support price and will just participate in whatever the market wants to do.

    Buyer and seller sentiment should control price over the next few days and short sales should rebound towards a more normal level.

    The average trade size has moved to the upper range of what I think are retail transactions. On a down day, with profit-taking and panicky exits, this is not surprising.

    ====================================================
    From a comment here seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion...
    Only 15,745 shares below 30 - likely panicked retailers jumping out.

    ATDF on both sides now: bid/ask $0.2931x10K/$0.3143x10K. What I'm seeing ATM suggests only the ATDF offers will move to allow buys below $0.30.

    From a comment here seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion...
    John: I'm thinking that this is all part of that *maximum* potential 1.5MM in the hands of potential profit-takers I theorized might be left from the 18 days below $0.30.

    I don't think anywhere near that amount will be unloaded as some will be longer-term holders.

    With the small volume gone today at $0.29xx and bids coming right back (from ATDF MM no less), I think there's a decent chance that the $0.29 is an overshoot.

    I expect daily shorts move up again today, but not to an extreme.

    It's early though and I've got lots of time left to be wrong.

    Through 14:32 ...
    # Trds: 59, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 39000, Vol 353784, AvTrSz: 5996
    Min. Pr: 0.2920, Max Pr: 0.3300, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3111
    # Buys, Shares: 13 86820, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3137
    # Sells, Shares: 22 231964, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3096
    # Unkn, Shares: 24 35000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3150
    Buy:Sell 1:2.67 (24.5% "buys")

    From a comment here seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion...
    I got surprised: shorts down again. This surprised me and does say that some of our downward pressure was because shares were flowing in from prior short sales that were covered and now sold I think. I had thought many of the prior few days' shorts might have cleared early, but today's volume and low shorts says that wasn't so.
    ====================================================
    From a comment here seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion...
    MrI: "Not sure why the 30.5 bid doesn't drop a penny to where everyone else is"

    Well, might have along-term buyer there who believes this is a good price and doesn't try to "time the market"?

    TFH version: MM has a buy we can't see lined up at >= $0.305? Likely $0.31?

    Remember, MM doesn't care what market is doing, really, only cares can he make a trade that yields profit plus any fees from the exchange.

    From a comment here seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion...

    MrI: Did you notice that right after the $0.305 trades were made, a $0.3098 went off?

    Looks like TFH version was the one as ATDF is not top on the bid side now (down at $0.3101 again) and Citadel has jumped in there. ATDF was on both sides prior to the $0.305 trades went off.
    ====================================================
    From a comment here seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion...
    ...
    I'm not suggesting we'll have three days down, but I'm not going to be surprised if it works out that way either.

    I think the key to watch will be volume tomorrow. Today's was up on the start of a move down, as it should be if a re-trace is definitely beginning, but will need to be supported by decent volume tomorrow on a down day to say it has some legs.

    If it either doesn't weaken in price or it does but has low(er) volume, then we're likely just doing a normal re-trace after a nice little move up. My starting point for that sort of thing would be "reversion to the mean" (although another Fibonacci point could just as well be the end point).

    *If* all the ~396K today were profit taking and *if* we really had 1.5MM shares to be sold (doubtful) to clean out the profit-takers, we're now down to ~1.1MM.

    My "real world" guess would be *much* lower than that.

    I'm encouraged by the late-day action recovering some of the early losses and closing ~$0.31. Look for tomorrow to have lower volume, tighter price spread (today's ~$0.04 was "excessive" for this stock) if it's just doing a normal re-trace, IMHO.
    ====================================================

    The following is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 136.11%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%

    10/9/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 52, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 15000, Vol 317310, AvTrSz: 6102
    Min. Pr: 0.3100, Max Pr: 0.3340, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3222
    # Buys, Shares: 28 154125, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3254
    # Sells, Shares: 22 151385, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3187
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 11800, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3242
    Buy:Sell 1.02:1 (48.6% "buys"), DlyShts 41475 (13.1%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 27.40%

    On the traditional TA front, we penetrated the falling resistance, ~$0.32, as if it wasn't there, and then close right on it AFAICT. Volume was "decent" and above yesterday's on this nice little move up.

    Oscillators looking decent: RSI just under overbought, accumulation slightly positive, MFI good at ~63, momentum 1.18 (last time we got in that vicinity we were up around ~$0.60), stochastic in overbought and ADX looking good at 30 with DI+ also there while DI- trends down.

    With daily short percentage down, we can see the price was supported by MMs having some long positions from incoming shares from prior short sales (prior three days roughly 114K, 234K and 31K) and they "painted the tape" yesterday with an AH trade at $0.319 to start us off right.

    The total of those three days' shorts are roughly 378.23K. See the similarity to today's "Vol 317310"? Of course, there's some slop in there, but the circumstantial evidence for my suspected correlation between daily shorts and subsequent action keeps getting stronger.

    VWAP penetrated the 100-day SMA today, along with the high. Average trade size continues in the lower region of "retail" and buy percentage 10-day average continues its recovery to normal range.

    We might see a bit more strength tomorrow, but I'm suspecting it'll turn tomorrow or the next day to test support around $0.30. This is my suspicion *only* because of low short sales yesterday and today. If the market-makers are not long, they have no reason to hold price up - may be why today price was allowed to close at $0.32 with no tape painting going on.

    If we see good buying pressure though it doesn't matter about the market-maker positions.

    The following is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 153.92%, min: 27.40%, max: 565.73%

    10/8/2012: APXW EOD stuff partially copied to concentrator.
    # Trds: 42, MinTrSz: 325, MaxTrSz: 14990, Vol 222663, AvTrSz: 5302
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3190, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3106
    # Buys, Shares: 19 112325, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3144
    # Sells, Shares: 23 110338, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3069
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.02:1 (50.4% "buys"), DlyShts 31000 (13.9%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 28.10%The following is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 175.00%, min: 28.10%, max: 565.73%

    10/5/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partially copied to concentrator.
    # Trds: 68, MinTrSz: 160, MaxTrSz: 82950, Vol 387473, AvTrSz: 5698
    Min. Pr: 0.2965, Max Pr: 0.3079, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3000
    # Buys, Shares: 61 277213, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2999
    # Sells, Shares: 7 110260, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3002
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.51:1 (71.5% "buys"), DlyShts 233663 (0.603%)

    We had a strange occurrence today of a single identifiable trade that exactly matched the "short exempt" quantity in today's FINRA-reported short sales data. This is a rare event. Moreover, someone suggested the quantity is quite close to the estimated remaining shares held by Quercus. Adding to the intrigue is the fact that ~10% of daily volume is ~35,224 shares so if this was Quercus-related it is a big exception to past behavior of limiting transaction to 10% of the day's volume. What's the magic number? 82,950 shares were reported as "short exempt" and a trade went at 15:52:22 at $0.30 for that quantity. Adding to today's exceptionalism is the fact that 49 trades, or ~72.1% were at $0.30, accounting for 330.8K shares, 77.6% of the day's volume.

    More to come, but I took the weekend off ... more or less.

    Close above 50-day SMA.

    MM manipulated to keep price up?

    The following is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 202.50%, min: 67.10%, max: 565.73%

    10/4/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partially copied to concentrator.
    # Trds: 38, MinTrSz: 250, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 280432, AvTrSz: 7380
    Min. Pr: 0.2965, Max Pr: 0.3100, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3026
    # Buys, Shares: 22 170100, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3016
    # Sells, Shares: 16 110332, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3042
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.54:1 (60.7% "buys"), DlyShts 113567 (40.5%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 102.93%

    Looking at the close of $0.2965, it might seem like weakness if only the price action were considered. After trading all day at $0.30 or so I guess somebody just wanted to lock in whatever they could and there were 7 trades totaling 17,015 shares (~6% of day's total) with a VWAP of $0.29656. The only sub-$0.30 trade prior was a 1K $0.2971 at 12:05.

    A pre-market trade of 500 shares at $0.31 and an AH trade of 10K at $0.30 are not included in the FINRA short sales data. Adding these to the FINRA-reported volume lowers the short percentage from 42.07% to 40.5%. If we also add them to the short sales it moves to 44.24%.

    The short percentage and volumes are reassuring because they are acting as expected. Recall that we are expecting volume to taper off at least a few days and we expected a "high" short sales percentage today. At ~40% it's "high" but continues the trend of lower peaks and is lower than Wednesday's ~57%. I'm hesitant about what it might do next. Last time we had this pattern, around 8/27, coming on a rise in price, the short sales percentage didn't drop really low but vacillated, seemingly centered around the 30% range for a while. Volumes were not comparable, generally, so maybe it won't behave similarly.

    Price is above the 10 and 25-day averages, but we've been here before with no long-term benefit.

    I'm looking at the average trade size continuing to trend down now (just barely though). It did come back to normal range today. I think it means the market maker is having to work harder to fill smaller orders. This suggests to me both that larger buyers are "full up", limiting the available upside pressure on volume for now, and a higher percentage of smaller traders, not investors, may be taking advantage of small price moves.

    If that latter scenario is the case, we may be set up for some more upward movement in the next few days as I suspect those folks likely bought in 9/27-10/1 when we had VWAPs in the $0.27xx to $0.26 range on aggregate volume around 1.4MM shares. Since then we've traded about 1.3MM, 92.1% of that prior period volume, with VWAPs at $0.2873 through $0.3026 today. Combined with the short sales percentage "spiking" up and remaining in the "higher" range, I'm assuming that cleaned out most short-term traders taking profit at this level.

    Buy:sell has been recovering since the 24th though and the 10-day has crossed above the 50-day and 25-day averages. The 25-day average has also been trending up, but I expect it to flatten out for a while unless we have sustained ratios similar to today's.

    I think all that opens the door for a move to $0.33, just above the falling resistance line of my traditional TA chart, if there's any buyers looking for signs of my long-desired "grind up" beginning. Since we did "bounce" off the descending support line, after a two-day overshoot, this is looking more likely than in the recent past.

    Speaking of traditional TA, we have the early signs of bullishness appearing at last. Stochastic, momentum, MFI and ADX-related are moving to the upside. Stochastic is barely below oversold and RSI and momentum are already slightly in the bullish area. Price is trying to get through the falling 50-day SMA while parabolic SAR is showing bullish.

    The following is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 202.50%, min: 67.10%, max: 565.73%

    (OTCQB:AXPW): 10/3/2012 EOD stuff
    # Trds: 144, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 21700, Vol 412737, AvTrSz: 2866
    Min. Pr: 0.2850, Max Pr: 0.3000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2983
    # Buys, Shares: 81 371160, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2987
    # Sells, Shares: 14 41577, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2940
    # Unkn, Shares: 49 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 8.93:1 (89.9% "buys"), DlyShts 215214 (52.1%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 517.63%

    Pretty good day. I'll just note that shorts came higher, as I suggested they should earlier today, but did not get excessive. It continued the trend of making lower highs on these spikes up, although from where it started (17.4% yesterday) I don't know it's really a "spike". Also, with the volume of "sells" so low (most trades hitting the ask) the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" really carries no useful information today, so just ignore it.

    One thing to watch for, I think, is whether the market-makers try to push price a little tomorrow to do covering buys on some of the 512.5K short sales seen over the last three days. With VWAPs of $0.2596, $0.2873 and $0.2983 they might be better off just letting these net out at the DTCC when the shares backing these shorts flow in if they can't move price to some average that is attractive. I think their decision will depend on whether we see strong buying pressure again.

    If they can't get prices that make covering buys attractive, we'll likely see shorts come in high again.

    Last thought on shorts: I suspect a lot of it was due to folks that bought when VWAP was $0.2596, 10/1, when volume was ~543K. 15.6% in a couple of days is hard to resist.

    Volume is now starting to fall off a bit, also something I suggested should start to happen if the big sellers were out and we got no catalyst. It's not bad, but as we near important levels folks will often wait to see what happens. The 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages are 466K, 362K, 379K, and 335K respectively. So we haven't really dropped as low as I'm expecting yet.

    The average trade size today was down significantly from recent levels (8183, 6978, 5733, 4491, 6391, 7290, and 2866 today) and below the averages significantly as well: 466K, 362K, 379K, and 335K. However, it's not worrisome to me because we guessed that as the bigger sellers left and the larger buyers were likely sated we should see average trade sizes drop. And some of this drop is likely market-makers having to work hard to fill smaller orders from other smaller orders rather than drawing from large blocks from large sellers.

    The following is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 219.66%, min: 67.10%, max: 517.63%

    10/2/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator
    # Trds: 82, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 150000, Vol 597796, AvTrSz: 7290
    Min. Pr: 0.2610, Max Pr: 0.3050, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2873
    # Buys, Shares: 53 443168, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2890
    # Sells, Shares: 29 154628, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2827
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.87:1 (% "buys"), DlyShts 103751 (%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 67.10%

    A strange bifurcated day. Details are laid out in the comments I copied below and here I'll just do a brief description and a few thoughts about it.

    First, very low volume through 13:12:45 and no trades whatsoever from then through 15:19. Then the flood gates opened. As seen in the comments below, the first part had only 119.2K shares traded and the second part had ~478.6K traded, ~80% of the day's volume. Along with the volume was a price disparity: VWAP $0.2716 and $0.2913, for the early low-volume part and late high-volume parts respectively.

    As it turns out, our short sales percentage behaved well too - coming in lower than yesterday, as past behavior suggested would be the case, but not absurdly low. Looking at things in light of my T+3 (or less) in-flow scenario, today's ~104K vs. yesterday's ~194K (17.4% and 35.6% respectively) caught my eye. This almost looks like most of the Friday 85K short volume flowed in: 104 + 85 = 192K - pretty close. Yes, it could easily be coinkydink, but what use is a TFH if we rely on that? :-))

    I feel that market-maker(s) have been doing some accumulation to fill a larger order and today allowed them to complete it.

    Volume has had eight days with a general up trend. All of those days have been above all but the 10-day average and only one day dipped below that one. As mentioned, daily short sales have been behaving as expected and continues to exhibit lower volatility, vacillating with highs and lows converging towards the 50 and 100-day averages.

    The average trade size was looking weak until the late-day surge. We had 5,528 average without the 150K trade that came in the late surge. This would be in the low range and below all the averages. With the 150K trade included it put us above all the averages a bit, but right in the range of them.

    The buy:sell is touched on in the comments in the concentrator yesterday. All I'll add here is that we've had three days in a row of improving ratio and we are now above all averages for the second consecutive day.

    When you look at the comments below, pay attention to the changes in buy:sell that occurred from the early to the late part of the day. The change that appeared is really quite striking.

    ============== Posted in a comment in the concentrator today begin ==============
    ----- At 12:59 -----
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion...

    (OTCQB:AXPW) through 12:43
    # Trds: 64, MinTrSz: 139, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 96317, AvTrSz: 3567
    Min. Pr: 0.2610, Max Pr: 0.2750, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2711

    Through 12:29 ...

    # Buys, Shares: 17, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2714
    # Sells, Shares: 9, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2659
    Buy:Sell 4.21:1

    Yesterday's VWAP was $0.2596, so we've a nice little bump in that.

    As expected, volume has come down. I expect short sales absolute volume will, of course, but percentage is hard to judge. If trend holds, it ought to be a bit lower than yesterday's ~36%, but not in the absurd region.

    EDIT: delayed stuff came in, buy:sell 5.65:1 now, buy VWAP $0.2720, sell $0.2662.

    ----- At 16:31 -----
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion...

    Jon: my guess is MMs accumulating all day(s) long to satisfy a decent buy order or two: saw 150K go @ $0.298, 30K $0.289, 34.6K $0.285, 40.2K $0.2725.

    I suspect larger, but they were in parts. Temporal proximity and similar price makes me think there were more larger ones.

    A little after 17:30, when shorts become available and I've looked at stuff, maybe I'll have a better guess.

    Keep in mind that MMs, for big clients, can spend days moving price down so they can then accumulate to fill a big order. That "Market Participants Guide", or whatever it's title is, that I linked some time back details this sort of stuff. In our case, if it was over days, the EOQ sellers did the work for them.

    We know that NITE has one or two big clients, as well as creditors now, don't we?

    No trades for 2:08 hrs/min and then the last 40 minutes 44 trades for 476K shares. roughly 79.6% of the day's total volume. So I think my guess is likely.

    I just hope it's not that *^#$%@#$ Special Sits or Blackrock.

    ----- At 17:32 -----
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion...

    (OTCQB:AXPW): A little preliminary info about that surge.

    b4 surge: 119217, VWAP 0.2716, buy 99328 VWAP $0.2725, sell 19889 VWAP $0.2672
    Lst 40 m: 478579, VWAP 0.2913, buy 343840 VWAP $0.2937, sell 134739 VWAP $0.2849
    ============== Posted in a comment in the concentrator today end ==============

    The following is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 70.67%, min: 67.10%, max: 74.24%

    10/1/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator
    # Trds: 85, MinTrSz: 175, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 543197, AvTrSz: 6391
    Min. Pr: 0.2520, Max Pr: 0.2780, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2596
    # Buys, Shares: 52 282518, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2602
    # Sells, Shares: 33 260679, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2590
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.08:1 (52.0% "buys"), DlyShts 193537 (35.6%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 74.24%

    ============== Posted in a comment in the concentrator yesterday begin ==============
    Recall that yesterday (Friday) had an AH trade of $0.26, which I wondered might be a covering buy for a prior short sale. I also though it might induce stop-loss selling and thought I posted that thought but I can't find it.

    Maybe I posted only in my mind's "virtual reality".

    Anyway, my thought this morning, when there were no trades for over thirty minutes and I then watched ~94.5K go at prices from $0.2699 down to as low as $0.2520, was that the triggering of stop-losses worked and some market-maker cleaned up. Recall that the prior day's short sales were 85,189 (excluding the out-of-hours trades @ $0.2720 and $0.2600, which would add a tad over 10K). If we take the reported shorts and the two extra trades we get ~95K possibly sold short.

    Does that number sound familiar? Does a VWAP of $0.2552 in "covering buys" for today's early 95K in trades look like an attractive profit to a market-maker that naked-shorted into yesterday's VWAP of 0.2715? Add in fees from the exchanges for both the naked shorting trades and the covering buys (larger fees for the buys than the sells) and it must have been an okay day. Doesn't sound like much, but it all adds up doesn't it?

    On a more general note ...

    The shorts sales peaks continue to get lower while the lows continue higher. Still looking like volatility is leaving this metric. Today's value is right around the area I'm expecting to be "normal" if the big sellers are out. Combined with volume showing a slight up trend, it looks like some stability is not far off. I do expect volume to start to reduce until we get some news, if the big sellers are out. This is predicated on the assumption that a large percentage of former big seller shares have migrated to the hands of investors, not traders.

    That may be a risky assumption.

    The average trade sizes are hanging in at the 10, 25 and 100-day averages, but we had a couple trades today that were at the extremes of what we commonly see. A "sell" of 39,373 @ $0.2520 within that early 95K I discussed, and a "buy" of 50K at $0.2540 at 11:07. If I take these two out of the calculation, our average trade size drops to 5,468, which would put the size near the low end of what we've been seeing and around 1.5K below the 10, 25 and 100-day averages.

    I'm not concerned because if the majority of the larger sellers are now out I would expect to see the average trade size start to trend a bit lower, especially if the retail buyers that "go large" are pretty-much sated for now. I expect many potential buyers are awaiting both good news and positive price movements.

    On the traditional TA front, I have to laugh. To make sure I read this as accurately as possible, I started up the magnifier on the computer and AFAICT the closing price of $0.265 is a fraction more then 1/10th of a penny below the descending support line of the trading channel, apparently $0.266x. The price just doesn't want to break below, so far. The bad news is that now every oscillator is showing weakness and the prices have finally started a round of lower highs and lows again - three days in a row now. I'm waiting to see what happens in another day or two when any shares backing prior short sales will have flowed through the system. With the market-makers apparently doing covering buys regularly, we should start getting waves of price appreciation and depreciation as they manipulate our market to maximize their profits since (we hope) they don't have any big customers pressuring them to sell regardless of price.
    ============== Posted in a comment in the concentrator yesterday end ==============

    The following is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 74.24%, min: 74.24%, max: 74.24%

    9/28/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 80, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 18300, Vol 359283, AvTrSz: 4491
    Min. Pr: 0.2530, Max Pr: 0.2810, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2715
    # Buys, Shares: 42 168869, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2750
    # Sells, Shares: 38 190414, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2684
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.13 (47% "buys"), DlyShts 85189 (23.7%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 44.74%

    Pre-market and AH trades, 5K @ $0.2720 (a "buy") and 5,507 @ $0.26 (a sell) respectively, are not included in the FINRA-reported short sales file. Adding thi s volume to the total volume moves the short percentage from FINRA's 24.43% to my calculated 23.7%. If both were short sales the percentage moves to 25.6%.

    First, the good news. We again closed at $0.27, above the traditional TA descending trend support line, which is around the $0.266 area now. So in spite of the lower low (which penetrated that line), we apparently are moving away from that descending support line and may not be quite as weak as it would appear. Don't believe me?

    First, the $0.26 last trade you all will see at the open Monday was an AH trade - my guess is a market-maker did a covering buy for a 5K short sale at a higher price. How likely is this? Very, as you'll see in a moment.

    Some breakdown of the days action - sorry folks that were drooling at $0.25: $0.2530, 1K (0.28%) ; $0.2600-$0.2650, ~59.2K (16.47%); $0.2651-$0.2700 80.7K (22.46%); $0.2701-$0.2750 ~150.3K (41.84%); $0.2760-$0.2810 ~68.1K (18.95%); VWAP $0.2715, with about ~61% of volume at >= $0.2701.

    Now I ask you, who would put in a 1K sell for $0.2530 at 15:35 P.M. when the trades within 7 minutes prior went as high as $0.27 and were all $0.26 or higher? Do you think someone was trying to trigger stop-loss selling? Who would be so nefarious? That's a rhetorical question folks - I have two parties in mind and one of them would be a market-maker.

    Here's another interesting factoid: there was a window of 28 to 35 seconds when the bid was $0.253/$0.254 and that was the only time during the whole day when the bid was below $0.26. Some coincidence, huh? This doesn't qualify as a "lure", it's more a "stick of dynamite tossed into the water to see what floats to the surface after detonation".

    I sincerely hope that all of us Axionistas are savvy enough now to be not distracted by such shenanigans.

    In spite of the nasty price action of late, volatility continues to come out of the daily short sales percentages as the peaks are lower and the lows higher since 8/3. Just as with the prior "spikes", we saw a drop to an absurdly low percentage and the start of a recovery towards more normal values. With my recent connecting the dots of "T+3" and daily shorts, I hope to be able to garner more and better intelligence from this as time passes and I begin to be better able to correlate it with "what's next".

    The bright spot in the daily short percentages is that now we have three of my four averages (10, 25 and 50-day) all in healthy down-trends with only the 100-day yet to respond. Some older lower values are "falling out" of that latter average and the future direction of it will be responding to the numbers going forward: if we see numbers in the 30% or so range, it will continue to rise a while longer (a week or two?) and then it too will begin to slowly flatten and roll over.

    There's a somewhat similar trend, lower volatility, in the average trade sizes as the highs have been moving lower since 7/11, but the lows have remained relatively steady. I presume this is an effect of the larger sellers having exhausted most of the larger buyers over time and the smaller retail buyers having to absorb the volume that has been getting put into the market by the larger sellers.

    With quarter end out of the way, selling pressure should see a dramatic reduction now and the volume and short sales should both move lower, although the percentage of daily shorts should continue to gravitate towards "normal" - my best guess is somewhere in the low-30% range over time.

    The last piece of good news: I think what we just went through these weeks is the equivalent of "blood in the streets". Those who bought and held strong will benefit.

    Concomitant with this selling pressure we have seen all the averages, not just the short-term ones, for the buy:sell ratio finally going negative.

    The descending trend lines for the share price have never had a stronger correlation - all are now >= 75% correlated.

    If we didn't know that the volume was from price-insensitive "dumpers", I would think the volume was a bright spot - it's on a steady trend up. But I suspect that now we'll see that disappear as sellers will be out and we'll be awaiting some big news to move the volume and price up. If shares have been transferring to "strong hands", price appreciation will begin to appear on low volume.

    Some random thoughts on the days action (next) and the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" (following those) have been omitted from the concentrator.

    The first five trades of the day, all "buys", took ~25.5K at a VWAP of $0.2738, -$0.0125 below yesterdays VWAP. This might indicate support for my thought, in a comment today, that early action might include covering buys of some of the 34.8K shares shorted yesterday. A 1.25 penny spread is real gravy to a market-maker with sufficient volume and fees paid from the exchanges. Later two trades, 3K @ $0.276 and 5K @ $0.271 went (the first "sells" of the day) might suggest that low-priced trades of only 5K more are needed for an MM to fully offset the shorts with "covering buys". Of course I don't know this is what's happening, but I do want to see if there's a possible correlation.

    In the meantime, the asks have been moving up and we've seen trades now go at $0.2789, a possible "lure" at $0.2810 (although I really think this is part of a retail "buy").

    At 10:57, 5 trades in the $0.27-$0.274 range, totaling 38K went off. This could also be the "covering buys" I'm thinking likely to occur. Trade then came right back, in 1.5 minutes, with 8K @ $0.28 and then a couple potential "lures" of 800 shares, one at $0.272 and then $0.275. Might be an MM trying to entice sales to accumulate to satisfy an order at a higher price.

    This saw our first weakening of the asks, along with the bid dropping back to $0.267 by Citadel, as NITE jumped ahead of ATDF's $0.28 offer with a $0.275 ask. But it looks like a "real" order since it's not the "standard" 5K multiple - 9,200 shown. If this goes off, $0.28 is next up if nobody else jumps in front of ATDF's $0.28.

    The timing, coming after two plausible "covering buys" scenarios having occurred, is at least interesting even though it proves nothing.

    After a normal(?) late-morning small price weakness episode, on very small volumes, that lasted until after lunch, we saw the asks move up to $0.28 again (unfortunately NITE and ATDF - so some jostling is likely) with 40K offered. With the best bid being 5K presented at $0.266 I suspect mid-to-low $0.27xx will be the next trades.

    Crap! I like being right, but to a very small degree would be quite satisfactory, thank you! Instead, we get a short ~20-minute "burst" of ~48.2K shares that take us to $0.2750, $0.2749, ... $0.2720. Best bid now $0.2701 from Citadel, but ATDF only has 7.9K left on the ask at $0.2749. NITE holding steady, so far, at $0.28.

    He-he! Price comes back in 6 minutes with a 5K $0.2749, 1.3K $0.28 and a "lure" of 600 at $0.28. Now NITE and ATDF best offers at $0.28. Who'll "cave" first? Neither?! Bids moved up from $0.2701 to $0.2702, but most importantly, some volume came with t, moving from5K bid to 15K bid to offset some of the 40K @ $0.28 offered. Next trdae a small 2K @ $0.2749.

    Around 14:15, bid/ask began to converge slightly as both sides moved in the best spirit of "negotiation". This put 5K @ $0.274 on the bid and 10K @ $0.2789 on the ask. Citadel on the bid and ATDF on the ask ... Hold the phone! TEJS jumps in front on the ask at $0.278 at 14:29. And the flood gates opened. Next was a spate of 43.7K trading $0.274 down to $0.27. Bid/ask settles back in at Citadels 6,969 $0.2666 bid, then supplanted by ATDF's $0.2667, with the ask from ATDF @ $0.27, 20K. Next best ask is TEJS 5K $0.2775.

    This looks scary folks!

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%

    9/27/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partly copied to concentrator.
    # Trds: 87, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 27900, Vol 498773, AvTrSz: 5733
    Min. Pr: 0.2650, Max Pr: 0.2840, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2734
    # Buys, Shares: 28 121480, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2735
    # Sells, Shares: 59 377293, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2734
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell, 1:3.11 (24.4% "buys"), DlyShts 34858 (7%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 9.24%

    Isn't it interesting how close the total short volumes for the prior three days, ~463K, plus today's short volume comes so close to our total daily volume?

    In short form, combined volume, buy:sell and low short sales suggests that the high short sales percentage (and ~440K absolute shares) from the prior two days flowed into market-maker hands at a low price and they sold. The ~$0.015 cent spread the prior two days gave ample room for "covering buys" and Citadel, one of the larger MMs in the market and which has been a new entrant at the "top of the heap" the last couple days, has been in competition to unload with ATDF, FANC, etc. I believe that answers my question from yesterday about "would they let them clear at DTCC or not".

    Our "short spike" from yesterday obviously held and continues the trend of lower spikes in this metric. In spite of appearances, volatility is apparently leaving this metric. Average trade size hanging right in there - essentially steady-to-up, slightly, over the last month, in the "retail" range I think.

    On the traditional TA front, the close held slightly above the falling trend support, which appears to be $0.269. The intra-day penetration is not worrisome if we are in a bottoming process, which may have been suggested by yesterday's possible volume "spike" (although it was marginal in that assessment). With today's volume, the slight penetration of that support and the recovery of price above that line later in the day on reasonable volume ... Let me regress here.

    Total shares traded below $0.27 were only 11 trades, 32,801 shares, just 6.6% of the day's volume and somewhat similar to the short sales percentage and volume for today. VWAP for these trades were $0.2680. So I'm hopeful that this penetration of that line was nothing more than an overshoot.

    Sans these few shares our VWAP was $0.2738, around a ha'-penny above the line mate!

    Interesting, but significance unknown, is that "Dly Sht % of 'sells' 9.24%" yields 34,862, quite near those sub-$0.27 shares' volume. Throw in one of the day's 2K trades, or smaller ones combined, slightly above that price and we have a match.

    From this we can surmise that all the day's sub-$0.27 trades were sellers scared out of their wits coming in while the market-makers, who were apparently long shares, coolly collected additional profits on shares flowing into their portfolios from prior sell orders.

    The following has been omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 57.33%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%

    9/26/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partly copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 54, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 28000, Vol 376833, AvTrSz: 6978
    Min. Pr: 0.2790, Max Pr: 0.2945, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2863
    # Buys, Shares: 33 197850, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2883
    # Sells, Shares: 21 178983, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2841
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.11:1 (52.5% "buys"), DlyShts 160300 (42.5%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 89.56%

    Not a bad day. Watch out for T+3? Two days of "healthy" shorting by the market-makers now - yesterday was ~260K. Will they "buy to cover" and then sell the incoming to the market or let the DTCC clearing process net their positions.

    Regardless, I'm glad to see them coming back to normal levels.

    As with yesterday, concerns about the possiblility that we have more larger sellers left than anticipated, possible EOQ and/or tax-loss selling keeps me from trying to "read the tea leaves" here.

    The following has been omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 60.16%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%

    9/25/2012: EOD stuff partly copied from my insta (later).
    # Trds: 103, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 77000, Vol 842898, AvTrSz: 8183
    Min. Pr: 0.2705, Max Pr: 0.2865, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2780
    # Buys, Shares: 48 289933, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2807
    # Sells, Shares: 55 552965, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2765
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.91 (34.4% "buys"). DlyShts 280168 (33.2%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 50.67%

    Well, where were these shorts yesterday? Were they saving them up? I suspect some "pre-loading" of the MM portfolios was done. Today looks much more like what we would see with heavy selling.

    Oh well, another "mystery of the universe".

    Regardless, I'm beginning to wonder if we are as near to exhausting the big sellers as we believed. Add in that we may be seeing some kind of EOQ and/or tax-loss stuff (one of the folks in the Concentrator mentioned that a lot of the big institutions and mutual funds(?) have a fiscal year that ends in September) and I don't know what will be going on.

    Every time I think these experimental charts are suggesting some usefulness, another surprise arises.

    I think I'll stop right here as right now I don't seem to be able to draw anything useful from what's going on.

    The following has been omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 58.32%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%

    9/24/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partly copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 71, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 62000, Vol 505646, AvTrSz: 7122
    Min. Pr: 0.2800, Max Pr: 0.2923, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2824
    # Buys, Shares: 21 61471, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2864
    # Sells, Shares: 50 444175, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2819
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:7.23 (12.2% "buys"), DlyShts 22580 (4.5%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 5.08%

    I got shocked today. I was expecting that we'd see a big spike in short sales. Didn't happen. What's this mean? Lot's of intra-broker trade volumes? Lot's of inter-broker trade volumes? Could the market-maker have been that long that 444K could be sells and only ~22.6K shares would be shorted by the market-makers? We had another case recently where shorts were very low and I commented on it here. It doesn't explain today's stuff, but there's a possibility similar mechanisms are at play.

    If T+3 is working, I don't see how. Here's the rounded shorts for the last few days prior: 100K, 117K, 43K, 39K, 32K, 54K, and 36K. If all of those hit the market-makers and had already been covered they would still only be ~420K. Is it possible the market-makers would hold for this long just to ... sell at lower prices? VWAPs for the same periods were $0.2978, $0.2987, $0.2966, $0.2909, $0.2875, $0.2889, and $0.2913. Even today's VWAP buy price was only $0.2864! The VWAP sell price was only $0/2819.

    Obliviously (and there's a lot of truth in that I guess), there's something going on here that I have yet to account for. Well, we had some suspected Quercus sales in the recent past that needed certificate conversion before they could enter the market-maker portfolio. Allowing up to two weeks ... estimates include 25K 9/20, 31K 9/19, 44K 9/18, 25K 9/14. So there's 125K that might have hit and we can bank on it being bought at low prices by the market-makers.

    Has it all hit? I don't know. Was it even involved today? I don't know. Is it possible that Blackrock or Special Situations or Manatuck, all of which have shares in electronic form, are clearing portfolios of unloved equities before EOD? Seems very likely to me.

    Moving on ...

    I saw one trade that might have been Quercus, but it's only based on a approximation nearing 10% of volume to that point. I wouldn't wager on it. 32K went at 14:02:04 @ $0.285 and 10% of prior volume would've been ~37K.

    This short percentage move interrupted our return towards normal levels. If some of this was normal T+3 stuff, you can see from the above that short sales should continue to trend up to whatever "normal" is quite quickly as there's very little volume that should flow in from the last few days, including today - ~145K maximum. If we don't see short percentage move towards normal, we know something odd (or at least something not yet understood by me) is going on.

    I wonder if today's volume qualifies as a "spike" ending a trend? The last several days were 184K, 450K, 351K, 284K, and 241K. The daily averages I track (10, 25, 50 and 100-day) are at 322K, 345K, 372K, and 309K respectively. With today at ~505.6K, it's a good possibility. In that case, going forward we shouldn't see price sink much, if at all.

    Average trades sizes are remaining very consistent now - in the retail range, if I'm judging correctly. But I suspect that's because the sellers are masking their activities and/or the market-makers are having to break trades into chunks to get the trades done.

    Everything else is pretty much unchanged: the price continues to diverge up and away from the falling trend support, now at ~$0.267 and none of the traditional TA oscillators are showing bullish signs.

    The following has been omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 58.83%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%

    9/21/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partly copied to concentrator.
    # Trds: 53, MinTrSz: 250, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol 240689, AvTrSz: 4541
    Min. Pr: 0.2870, Max Pr: 0.2960, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2913
    # Buys, Shares: 28 156750, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2923
    # Sells, Shares: 13 83939, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2896
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell .87:1 (65.1% "buys"), DlyShts 36000 (15%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 42.89%

    An AH trade of 4k @ $0.2913 is not included in the FINRA-provided data. Adding ot to the total volume would move the short percentage from 15.21% to 15%. If it's added to short sales as well, the percentage moves to 16.6%.

    I don't believe Quercus was in today. 1/11th of the total volume, including the 4K AH trade at $0.291, would be ~21.9K. The last six trades would hit 21K shares, but the VWAP of $0.2949 would be near the high, not what I would expect if the market-maker is making covering purchases near EOD. And the AH trade was much smaller than what we normally observe when it appears Quercus has been here. There were a series of smaller trades earlier that would be at a lower price that might be Quercus-related, but they began around 14:30, much earlier than normally seen. The other larger trades that might have been related seem to be at $0.29 or greater. Some could be Quercus shares, but there's not even any strong indications I can detect that suggest this - they were even earlier in the day.

    Well, I expected a small rise to start moving towards the averages in a few days, but it starts on a Friday? Yes, it's really no big deal: low +$0.003, high +0.002 and VWAP + 0.0024. But the shorts are behaving well (i.e. as we expected) by moving slowly into the lower areas of normal (22.83%, 30.32%, 27.25%, and 25.21% for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages respectively), buy:sell trending up ("buys" 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages 48%, 53%, 52%, and 54% respectively) and volume, although low currently, is not falling off a cliff here - since 9/5 it's been vacillating right around my four averages. Coming off the downward cycle and abysmal short spike and poor buy:sell, I'm impressed.

    On the traditional TA front, price continues to move further away from the falling support of the downward channel, currently ~$0.269. And it's not just the line falling away - the lows are trying to move up ($0.2830, $0.2840, $0.2840, and $0.2870). And the highs are trying to help out, but having a harder time ATM - $0.3050, $0.2950, $0.2940, and $0.2960. But all this is early still and only the MFI, at 45.6, is nearing getting actually bullish (over 50).

    One thing bears repeating. I mentioned a few days back that the leg down looked like it didn't want to complete the run to the support line. I think this is confirmation of that change in behavior - even with the large short sales spike and bad buy:sell seen off and on since 9/13, the low has refused to go back to that seen, $0.2806, on 9/12.

    As I mentioned previously, the short sales percentage spike peaks have been getting lower since the 7/16 high. Putting all this together, along with the lowered volume, I think we are seeing confirmation of less pressure from big sellers. It's not going to take much for retail investors to see the much-reduced downside risk and become willing to dip a toe in, which I think has been going on for a while now.

    Related to that discussion, Mathieu suggested that next week we might pause between $0.34 and $0.35. I feel that's an unlikely case and put my reasons in this comment. Since it's a bit lengthy I won't repeat it here.

    The following has been omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 62.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%

    9/20/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partly copied to concentrator.
    # Trds: 37, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol 283805, AvTrSz: 7670
    Min. Pr: 0.2840, Max Pr: 0.2940, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2889
    # Buys, Shares: 18 124700, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2913
    # Sells, Shares: 16 128765, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2873
    # Unkn, Shares: 3 30340, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2860
    Buy:Sell (43.0% "buys") 1:1.03, DlyShts 54400 (19.2%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 42.25%

    Things looking pretty much normal today. Short percentage coming back, as we suspected it might, buy:sell recovering, also as suspected, and Quercus was apparently in, as suggested by an AH trade approximating 10% of preceding volume, 25K, @ $0.29, which we think is a "covering buy" by the market-maker.

    Average trade size is still in what I judge to be retail trade size and the price range has been stable for three days now with the low going flattish and price compressing as the highs get pushed down. Volume is also "flattish", hanging around below it's 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages of 320K, 401K, 364K, and 305K. We are once again in the "wunnerful, wunnerful" land of a 1-penny spread.

    Ain't "consolidation" grand?

    It's about time for the price to start to recover to a bit nearer the averages of $0.2947, $0.3067, $0.3120, and $0.3360 for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages, respectively, considering the recent short-sales behavior, the new and untested T+3 considerations, improving buy:sell, and low volume.

    But I don't believe any recovery in price will be big just yet. No coordinated strength in any of my experimental indicators, or their corresponding averages, is in the charts yet.

    The following has been omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 64.20%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%

    9/19/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partly copied to concentrator.
    # Trds: 52, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 350516, AvTrSz: 6741
    Min. Pr: 0.2840, Max Pr: 0.2950, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2875
    # Buys, Shares: 20 96640, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2912
    # Sells, Shares: 29 250576, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2860
    # Unkn, Shares: 3 3300, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2900
    Buy:Sell 1:2.59 (27.6% "buys"), DlyShts 32210 (9.2%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 12.85%

    It looked like Quercus was in again today, suggested by a 31K AH trade of 31K (1/11th of total volume would be ~32K) at $0.2850 which is believed to be a "covering buy", slightly below the VWAP.

    Short sales and "buys" percentages have begun to recover, as expected, and should continue for a few days more before anything dramatic happens.

    An odd day in many ways. Short action is at the top of my list. The following couple of paragraphs are copied from comments in the concentrator.

    -----------------------------------------------------
    MrI's first comment here:
    My trading screen has shown some unusual behavior this afternoon. Some recent trades didn't change the MM's best bid # of shares, like the 1st 50k at .286 and the 13.3k both hitting UBSS' 52k shares bid, and the 10k hitting ETRF's 15k shares at .285. I've only seen that outta NITE and FANC, etc., when they show 5k shares, not outta UBSS and ETRF or about anyone else when they have >5k.

    Snobirdac11's comment here:
    I was looking at TDAmeritrade level 2 screen during the last ten minutes before the close today. There were several good size bids at .286 and one 5k ask at .289. The .289 ask did not take the .286 bids. If there was a big seller, he could have sold over 50k at .286 right before the closing.

    Hopefully, this is the sign that the big seller is gone.

    MrI's reply here
    snowbird, he did. But it took the second 50k sold at .286 (at 15:53:35) to take out the 52.6k UBSS bid. Strange that the first 50k sold at that price 20 minutes earlier nor the 13.3k sold 10 minutes later did not reduce the 52.6k shares bid size. I suppose there could have been a fakey 5k bid as part of the 52.5k, but to also see the same behavior with the ETRF bid was unusual to me.

    From my first comment here
    MrI: My *guess* is that those trades were not made in the market. Nasdaq (where OTC is apparently hosted) runs "windows" (read that as "dark pools" I guess) throughout the day that allow the market-makers to be bypassed.

    That's enabling inter-broker trades - you know, just like the old days when a h00m0n being picked up a phone and spoke to another h00m0n being?

    It' also possible it was an intra-broker trade, which also bypasses the market-makers.

    The last possibility I can think of is that a larger customer called his favored MM (they're co-dependent is my bet) and said I want to move these ...

    MM, being beholden, does the unthinkable and picks up the phone ...

    Voila and *whew*, "Got 'er done"!

    If this last was the case, that may be why we saw two trades 22 minutes apart. One takes the shares and the other puts them - order is irrelevant in this case.

    Of course, it could be two unrelated - mustn't overlook the obvious.

    Ah, another factoid eliminates the MM involvement *unless* he was long those shares from 9/13 or later T+(1..3) delivery to his portfolio: Shorts today only 32210, 9.2%. Not enough to cover either of those 50K trades.
    -----------------------------------------------------
    From my second comment here
    Just as a weird reminder to myself to investigate further ...

    In reply to Dastar above, it occurred to me that if some shorts reported were related to Quercus trades, we had almost zero short sales today outside of Quercus, ~31k?

    It's happened a few times in the past that we had zero, and very near-zero, but it is not common. And even ignoring Quercus in today's 32.2K+ is low: average is ~75K, median is ~47.7 and 32K resides in the bottom 1/3rd of the instances.

    It carries significance if my recent success in executing 2+2=4 (connecting short sales with "normal" delivery within three days after the trade) holds water.

    It says that either the market-makers were long enough today to get 350.5K shares, less the 31K for Quercus, traded without shorting hardly anything *or* a whole lot of shares bypassed the market-maker. We(?) *do* suspect that two reported 50K trades (100K total) may have done this, leaving about 220K more that we would *guess* went through the market-makers.

    N.B. 9/13-9/14 shorts totaled ~217.3K. Theoretically 9/13's (99.5K) would *normally* hit the MMs' portfolios no later than EOD yesterday (9/18) and the 9/14 ones (~117K) no later than EOD today.

    220K traded with few shorts, 217K from prior shorts possibly arriving "in the nick of time"?

    And now we know what to look for when time to back-test comes.

    Apologies to those without interest.

    TFH notwithstanding, sometimes I feel justified feeling like I'm the person in this.

    http://bit.ly/RyYXj9
    -----------------------------------------------------

    The following has been omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 66.02%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%

    9/18/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partly copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 94, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 28000, Vol 450125, AvTrSz: 4789
    Min. Pr: 0.2830, Max Pr: 0.3050, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2909
    # Buys, Shares: 40 122509, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2955
    # Sells, Shares: 52 307616, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2895
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 20000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2850
    Buy:Sell 1:2.51 (27.2% "buys"), DlyShts 38829 (8.6%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 12.62%

    The following has been omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 70.86%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%

    It looks like we have once again entered window dressing season. This is when a lot of organizations dump their losers and add to their winners. Our volume and price action suggests this may be affecting our price action. If some of our larger institutional players (Manatuck, Blackrock, Special Situations) are engaged in this activity, selling pressure should continue. However, it could be quite choppy if the market-maker(s) are receiving shares for prior sells orders for which they have made covering buys. In this case they would have a floor they would want to maintain to maximize their profit on these shares. They could, and likely would, just let some shares get netted by the DTCC, in which case they don't work to keep a floor in place.

    Looking at past behavior, once we hit a very low short percentage there seems to be a tendency to for it to make a choppy sideways movement before starting back up again. With my new thoughts about T+3 delivery effects and the shorts for the two days subsequent to 9/12 totaling ~217K short sales, I expect we'll see a similar behavior as the incoming shares from these two days may have been covered, to some extent, by the market makers, reducing the percentage of short sales as the market-makers take profits by selling these incoming shares. This has two potential effects: short sales percentage is reduced as these "sells" are not short, and the proceeds might be used to buy shares from sell orders that arrive, giving them some long positions (T+3 days later?) at a very attractive cost. I don't know how likely this second scenario is, but it could explain the choppy nature of short sales percentage and price action after we've had a short percentage spike.

    More investigation is needed.

    It looks like Quercus was in today with a difference - apparently 2 trades, one earlier than normal and one normal after hours. The first came at 14:57:09 with a $0.29 28K trade, ~10 of volume prior to that trade. The second came in after-hours, at 16:04:27, with a trade @ $0.285 of 16,450 shares. This was ~10% of the volume after the first trade. This suggests that Quercus now has 44K shares less to dump.

    The AH trade @ $0.285 of 16,450 shares is not included in FINRA-provided volumes. Adding this to total volume reduces the calculated short percentage to 8.6% from the calculated 8.95%. If we also add it to the short volume, the percentage moves to 12.3%, a noticeable difference.

    Watching to see if my thoughts on shorts and subsequent T+3 actions hold any water, I posted this comment this morning. It says, in essence, the early sell-off at low prices had volume very close to Wednesday's (9/12) short volume and I thought there might be a relationship and Thursday's short sales volume, ~99K might be incoming or might have been netted at the DTCC - we don't know. After that volume was "satisfied" price inched up minimally.

    An additional thought occurred: the T+3 is just the maximum normal delivery time - shares can arrive sooner. I'm wondering, since the short percentage is so low (as is common after spikes in this metric) if some large percentage of T+2 or T+1 shares might commonly roll in after a spike. This will take some study to see if it has any merit in explaining price and volume action caused by market-makers. So I'll leave it alone until I get something that looks very likely to have value.

    The following has been omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 70.86%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%

    9/17/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partly copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 32, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol 183500, AvTrSz: 5734
    Min. Pr: 0.2900, Max Pr: 0.3090, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2966
    # Buys, Shares: 11 53400, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3032
    # Sells, Shares: 21 130100, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2939
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0
    Buy:Sell 1:2.44 (29.1% "buys"), DlyShts 42600 (23.2%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 32.74%

    Not much to say today that wouldn't be repetitive, so I'll just mention the usual short-related stuff and a couple brief comments.

    A 2K AH trade at $0.2902 is excluded from the FINRA-provided volumes. If we include this in the total volume the short percentage drops from the calculated 23.47% to 23.2%. If it's also added to short sales, the percentage moves to 24.3%.

    As usual, following a short percentage spike Thursday last, it's doing it's usual drop even as buy:sell weakens (see the instablog charts). I'm beginning to think I've got a handle on some of this crap ... at least until another 8/17-like aberration occurs again. Let's see if short percentage continues to drop one more day and buy:sell and/or price strengthens again either tomorrow or Wednesday as Thursday's T+3 elapses. This assumes we don't have a plethora of new sell orders hit the market.

    On price action today we had the usual ATDF, FANC and NITE market-maker's behavior: started decently positive, weakened a bit, came back a bit and weakened into the close. But there was apparent good support at $0.29 and above all day long and even a couple bumps up on the ATDF bid.

    I'll go out on a limb here and, based on past behavior, suggest that we've passed the point of risk of going to $0.28xx in this cycle if we don't hit it tomorrow. The reason I hedge that is that there is advantage to the brokers (in certain ways) to holding the client's shares as long as possible before making delivery. I don't know how many do this "take as long as possible without going into fails-to-deliver" and I also don't know the cycle time once the broker starts the delivery process.

    However, apparently Quercus has been in two consecutive days, so that gives another T+3 opportunity when the market-maker might still be a little long, although less long each passing day as the reducing volume reduces the volume of arriving shares from those prior sell orders. But keep in mind those last two trades today might have been covering short sales for a Quercus order, meaning that the arriving shares have a lower cost-basis for the market-maker. That could allow the market-maker to unload at a lower price or encourage him to move price up to get better profit on the arriving shares. Ideally, from my POV, the market-maker would just leave them alone and let the DTCC net his position so that us folks in the market could set the price.

    Fat chance that!

    Wrapping up, average trade sizes remain in "retail" area, I think.

    The following was omitted from the daily concentrator posting.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 76.68%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%

    9/14/2012: (OTCQB:AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 40, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 31000, Vol 269600, AvTrSz: 6740
    Min. Pr: 0.2910, Max Pr: 0.3100, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2987
    # Buys, Shares: 32 206800, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3001
    # Sells, Shares: 8 62800, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2942
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 3.29:1 (76.7% "buys"), DlyShts 116800 (43.3%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 185.99%

    A 10K AH trade @ $0.291, the same price as the last in-market trade of 15K, occurred at 16:23. If this is combined with that 15K trade, the total equates to ~10% of the volume prior to those to trades (1/11th of total volume). This makes me think those two trades were a "sell" from Quercus to the market-maker covering his intra-day short sales at a higher price (VWAP was $0.2987).

    If we add this 10K to the total volume FINRA reports, short sales percentage moves from 44.99% to 43.3%. If we also add it to the short sales the percentage moves to 47%.

    Well, I think there's a positive trend here - no, not price getting ready to rocket or anything like that. The volatility seems to be draining out of a couple different areas, which should eventually show in some stability in price behavior. I think this sort of fits with John's cross of the 200-day rolling average of volume.

    First, since the short sales peak on 8/16 (highest since I began tracking), the peaks have been topping at lower percentages during each cycle. This is clearly visible on the charts. The lows have also been generally slowly moving towards the middle since 8/5. Even 9/7's low is slightly more towards the middle and that was coming off an exceptional short sales percentage pattern not seen before.

    The large volume spikes are getting smaller since 4/26. The volume lows are also gravitating towards more consistently hanging around the averages since 6/7 and the volume is definitely trending up near-term.

    Average trade size highs have been moving more toward the longer-term averages since 7/11 and the lows are slightly higher and stable.

    The buy percentage lows, after hitting their nadir for the second time (4/10 and 8/3), have been "floating" upwards, steadily. Conversely, the "highs" have been trending down towards the more normal ranges on each cycle.

    All this has continued even when we hit the recent resistance around $0.30, which I did not expect, and even as price moved to the $0.29-$0.28 range again. Speaking of price (nobody thinks of that do they? :-)) ), in spite of some feeling that we would go to $0.27 again and maybe even $0.25, we saw an increase in price with some volume improvement, in spite of another short sales percentage spike up (but we had predicted that the percentage would be moving up again). Yes, the VWAP move wasn't huge, just back to $0.2981, but it is again centered around the $0.30 area that I suggested has done pretty well as an area of demonstrated strength in the recent past.

    Since I've not seen these "stability trends" in the past and we've been in "exceptional circumstances", beginning before I started this tracking, I take these as positive signs that the "exceptional circumstances" are, at long last, abating. Even if we have some bigger players in the game, who may or may not be buying or selling during any period, things are beginning to behave more like a normal stock is involved rather than one under assault by distressed folks that just want to dump out.

    Maybe the recent move back to a VWAP near $0.30, when the potential for going lower was seen as being much more likely than not, is the first manifestation of smaller investors' comfort combined with larger distressed (and distressing too!) sellers actually being finally exhausted, which I've been suggesting they were near to for a couple of weeks now. Mathieu hit on this, I think, when he mentioned that the inability of the price to be driven lower was a very positive indication.

    Increasing stability bodes well for peace of mind and may allow, at long last, some folks to enter without worrying that the price will get hammered just a few days after they make their purchase and they will have missed an opportunity for a much better price or won't be able to take "the pain" and will jump out.

    Maybe all this suggests, at long last, the beginning of the "grind up" that I've wanted to see and incorrectly thought I might have seen beginning several times in the past.

    Moving to traditional TA for a couple of items, we see three consecutive days of higher lows and the last day has a higher high as well. Stochastic has moved out of oversold and moved above its average. On the ADX front, the DI+ and DI- are converging and it looks like a few positive days will allow a cross to the positive side.

    The price is definitely trying to diverge upwards away from the descending support line (~$0.27), which it had been moving towards on this recent leg down. However, I'm guessing that $0.33-$0.34 will show resistance again as when we got VWAP prices below $0.30 ($0.2969, $0.2945, $0.2915, $0.2978, and $0.2987) we had ~1.63MM shares change hands. That seems sufficient to safely assume that gains of 10% or more will entice some profit-taking. With our descending resistance line at ~$0.333, this seems even more likely.

    However, do keep in mind my prior thoughts about volatility in several of my experimental metrics. With the recent Rosewater product PR, CEDIA discussion that APMarshall kindly contributed in the concentrator, ... we might have a smaller percentage of "weak hands" participating this time around.

    I had mentioned that we needed to see what happened last week to make a stab at "what's next".

    Overall I think we have positive trends beginning to develop, which we've seen come to fruition and get crushed in the past. This time I think last week's behavior says no crush is likely in the near-term.

    The following was omitted from the daily concentrator posting.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 81.56%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%

    9/13/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 31, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 15000, Vol 171280, AvTrSz: 5525
    Min. Pr: 0.2886, Max Pr: 0.3000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2978
    # Buys, Shares: 23 131855, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2987
    # Sells, Shares: 8 39425, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2948
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 3.34:1 (77% "buys"), DlyShts 99505 (58.1%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 252.39%

    Today's short sales qualify as a spike, being well above the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day rolling averages of 21.31%, 30.37%, 28.17%, and 24.74% respectively. It may be just an effect of an unexpected price recovery on low volume "pulling" a few sellers into the market. This seems to be supported by "Dly Sht % of 'sells' 252.39%" and buy:sell, since "sells" were only 23%, ~39.4K shares in 8 trades.

    Since folks deciding to sell "on the fly" likely didn't have their shares already in market-maker hands - shares were probably sitting in brokerage accounts - the result would be a high percentage of short sales as these must be flagged as short sales, by FINRA and SEC rule.

    Another implication is that the market-makers were not long in their portfolios, but that also implies that they might become so as the shares backing the sells flow in. For this to happen the market-makers would need to be making covering buys (of today's and some subsequent short sales) at lower prices so that when the backing shares arrived they could be sold rather than just letting the DTCC net out the short positions. This was unlikely today as ...

    After the first three trades of $0.2900 x 1000, $0.2886 x 300 and $0.2900 x 5000, price never went below $0.29 again. Excluding those first three trades, VWAP was $0.2981. 70,125 shares traded below that price and 94,855 traded above (notice how close that is to the 99,505 that were shorted?). So even if the market-maker(s) bought every share traded below that VWAP, there would still be ~25K outstanding market-maker short positions. Not a large number, but nevertheless ...

    So I doubt (m)any "covering buys" were done today. First, there's no need - they can just let the DTCC net the positions when the shares arrive. Second, the volumes and prices seen suggest it would not be very profitable to do covering buys. If a market maker wanted to attempt that, some sustained lower prices would need to be seen in the next day or two to make it worthwhile. If the minimum 25K possibly remaining short is anywhere near close (I do think it would be higher as very few covering buys likely got done), why bother with such a small volume?

    The market-maker(s) can set a lower price range on Friday to try and do covering buys, but if few folks sell into the lower range, the market-makers will have to let the netting process take care of the short positions. Even if some sellers appear, if volume remains low enough, the market-makers may not be able to cover the shorts by buying either. This would be because they likely would be making additional short sales for some of the new batch of sellers unless the sellers were really, really motivated to get out at some lower price. Of course, the short positions are "rolling" as new orders roll in and shares from past orders also roll in, but with a lag.

    As noted, for the most part we've seen decent support around the $0.30 area. Even yesterday (see my comments for 9/12) with higher volume (~531K), $0.28x hit, and a bias to the sell side (1:1.58), the VWAP held at $0.2915. And if my commentary for that day is correct, the market-maker(s) pushed price down to fill a larger order. It may not have gone there otherwise.

    If the scenarios are correct, it removes a market-maker(s) long portfolio as a cause of reduced prices and leaves only retail and larger sellers (notably absent today based on volume and buy:sell) to push prices lower. If the sellers exercise discipline, we can expect continued low volume on flat or rising price again. If buyers come in big, a distinct possibility when the stuff I describe is considered, price could move higher. But Friday is often "flat", in terms of volume and price.

    Having said that, last time we explored the $0.28 range (check around 8/15-8/20 or so) we had a "double dip" served up to us. So at that time, at least, "weak hands" came in and helped out some "bottom feeders". Did they get exhausted at this price level last time? I don't know. It seems likely as during that period (check the instablog charts) we had generally much higher volume, short sales volume and a very high percentage of "buys".

    I believe some of those buyers then were responsible for the resistance seen around $0.33. If volume doesn't pick up and price go to ~$0.28 again, they may not be able to pull that flip again.

    The following was omitted from the daily concentrator posting.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 68.51%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%

    9/12/2012: EOD stuff partially copied from my instablog.
    # Trds: 82, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 48000, Vol 530927, AvTrSz: 6475
    Min. Pr: 0.2806, Max Pr: 0.3000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2915
    # Buys, Shares: 43 205846, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2936
    # Sells, Shares: 39 325081, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2901
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.58 (38.8% "buys"), DlyShts 84685 (16.0%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 26.05%

    A note about the AH trade: I'm strongly suspicious that it indicates a market-maker moved us lower today to acquire these shares to fill a larger buy order, possibly from a "good" (i.e. "large") customer. I sorted the trades on size and price and found that 48,062 shares in 10 trades, mostly below $0.29 (one 2,685 share trade at $0.29), all "sells" (as I would expect), traded during the day with a VWAP of $0.2869. I think the AH trade, at $0.29, was the fill of the market-maker's customer buy order and provided a profit (and fees from the exchange too) to the market-maker.

    The first four trades below $0.29 went off in 19 seconds starting at 10:49:42. Three more went off at 13:45:58 through 13:51:33, 2 more at 14:28:55 and the $0.29 trade I suspect was part of the process went at 15:47:26. Again, these were all "sells" and I believe the market-maker was the buyer.

    The question, for me, is "is that all there is or is there more to the order?". Regardless, it appears to me the market-maker successfully spooked some poor retail investor or trader into releasing those shares cheaply.

    Going back to the normal narrative on my experimental stuff ...

    The AH trade of 48K at $0.2900 doesn't appear on the FINRA-reported daily short sales. Adding this to FINRA's reported volume of 482,927 moves the short sales from FINRA's 17.54% percentage to 16%. Adding also to the short sales would yield 25% daily short sales.

    Early in the day it appeared that we might move up but around 14:00 I commented "Early on 1.65:1 buy:sell morphed into 1:1.34 so far along with price weakness". At the end, including the AH trade, we ended at 1:1.58. Without the AH trade, it would be 1:1.35. I now attribute this to the market-maker moving us as described above for the purpose of satisfying a buy order.

    Daily short sales continue to trend downward from the "triple top" that began 8/17 and it looks likely that they will stabilize around a more normal level in the short-term, maybe around 25% or so.

    Volume has been trending up since 9/4, as the daily short sales trended downward, and the average trade size remains in what seems to be the retail trade range, right around the 100-day average.

    Today's buy:sell was not excessively bad and the buy:sell continues to trend towards the more normal range, which should be around the 55% "buys" area if the 50 and 100-day averages are to be believed.

    On the traditional TA front, now that we've hit the $0.28 range again, will price start to recover, as it did last time it got this low? Continued watching of how it plays this week, as I mentioned some days back, will likely tell the tale. Does price rebound, as it did before or continue towards the falling support (~$0.2725) of the descending trading channel.

    There's one thing for sure - I have been slow to recognize that someone has been playing this channel since 5/29 as we've seen 100% transitions from the highs to the lows on every leg of the swings thus far since the channel began (the 7th leg is in progress now - almost 3.5 cycles so far). None of the traditional oscillators are positive ATM and if we used solely the traditional indicators we would be looking for a continued down to the $0.27 area.

    My new and untested "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" continues to trend lower from August's ending average of ~114%. and currently shows: Sep Avg: 42.24%, min: 3.01%, max: 148.07%. These are big changes from what went on the last few months and I'm looking forward to getting them charted to see what we can see.

    The following was omitted from the daily concentrator posting.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 42.24%, min: 3.01%, max: 148.07%

    9/11/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 51, MinTrSz: 170, MaxTrSz: 20700, Vol 230273, AvTrSz: 4515
    Min. Pr: 0.2910, Max Pr: 0.3000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2945
    # Buys, Shares: 39 133303, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2962
    # Sells, Shares: 12 96970, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2922
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.37:1 (57.9% "buys"), DlyShts 48678 (21.1%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 50.20%

    Good support is being demonstrated around that $0.29-$0.30 level as we have extreme price compression demonstrated. Early selling predominated with the lows of the day being established and buy:sell going as low as 1:3.6. But it began to rebound earlier than normal and demonstrated good strength as well, moving from $0.2912 to $0.30 on trades that comprised almost 1/3rd of the day's total volume at the end of the move to $0.30.

    This is quite positive but we do need to see confirmation with volume being "decent".

    Buy:sell continues to rebound, as expected, ending the day at 57.9%, above the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day rolling averages of 46%, 52%, 54% and 55%.

    Short sales continue to move towards more normal levels (as we knew they should and we needed to see). This seems to be fitting with the scenario described in the instablog header suggesting that the extremely low short sales were a result of shares flowing to the market-makers, which they may have been selling rather than "netting out", and that short sales would return to normal as the market-maker long positions became exhausted. I believe that this removes some selling pressure as the market-makers have fewer shares that they bought cheaply that will be sold into the market at lower prices than what we might expect. This is all just a SWAG though.

    If that is the case, we can look for some more relief from the selling pressure at these lower prices and maybe not see it return until we get to around $0.33 or higher again. Recall that I was surprised to see apparent resistance at around $0.33 instead of $0.35-$0.37. Let's keep an eye out to see what happens.

    Average trade sizes continue to be in the retail trade ranges, but at the lower end of what seems "normal". This may be a result of the extremes seen in so many areas over the last days as investors and traders both would be skittish not having any strong indications of direction or its strength when indications are what they've been in both these experimental charts and in the traditional TA charts. Speaking of which ... (segway in progress).

    The descending trading channel continues down, ranging from about $0.271 - $0.336 today. Our price action today does suggest that we might not be headed to that lower support area as price stuck essentially right in the middle of the range.

    This suggests the possibility that a truncated leg down may be in progress which will reverse and move towards resistance without making the full swing to support. This is suggestive of increasing bullishness and the possibility of trading range establishing at a higher level. I don't expect it to move a lot higher in short order, but a range of $0.30-$0.33 short-term with highs moving towards the $0.35 area medium-term seems entirely reasonable.

    An important thing, IMO, to watch is what happens around $0.33, where we saw the unexpected resistance. If this resistance was a result of the extraordinary short-sales action, which began 8/17 and I described elsewhere, we might blow right on through $0.33 to the expected $0.35-$0.37 resistance range. If it does this on good volume, we have a positive sign. Yes, selling could, and probably should be expected to, come back in this area. But if the current crop of big sellers are really about done, as we suspect, this should only be some profit-taking and risk reduction by retail investors.

    I'll end this with a mention that the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" might have demonstrated value, as yesterday's numbers prompted me to mention that I thought it might be suggesting a reduction in the selling pressure. This is the first time I've looked and haven't checked the history yet, but it's a potential first occurrence of a potential pattern. We'll see over time.

    The following was omitted from the daily concentrator posting.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 44.94%, min: 3.01%, max: 148.07%

    9/10/2012: (OTCQB:AXPW) EOD stuff partialy copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 67, MinTrSz: 158, MaxTrSz: 46500, Vol 471534, AvTrSz: 7038
    Min. Pr: 0.2904, Max Pr: 0.3040, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2969
    # Buys, Shares: 39 180101, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2973
    # Sells, Shares: 28 291433, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2967
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.62 (38.2% "buys"), DlyShts 68918 (14.6%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 23.65%

    Three pre-market trades occurred, totaling 7.8K at $0.303. Two totaling 7.5K are not included (I don't know why the 300 shares are in there - somebody goofed?) in the FINRA provided volumes. Adding this to the FINRA total volume moves the short sales from the reported 14.85% to my calculated 14.6%. If the 7.5K is also added to the short sales, the short percentage moves to 16.2%.

    Well, last time we entered $0.29xx territory (8/14-8/17) we touched $0.286 and $0.28 in two days of that four-day stretch when "buys" leading to the dip were generally higher (52.4%, 31.4%, 15.4% and 17.2%) than today's lead-in (27.6%, 21%, 35.8% and 38.2%, including today). Short percentages then leading into that period (35.2%, 23.2%, 21.3% and 2.5%) were higher, on average, than the lead-in to today (including today, 15.7%, 12.9%, 1.9%, and 14.6%). Volume leading into that decline was generally lower (in thousands, 11.3, 155.1, 207.6 and 583.0) than the lead-in to today's (234.7, 426.6, 258.7 and 471.5 including today), with that prior period's spike ending the trend and we moved back to $0.3000 - $0.3050 the next day.

    The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" leading into that period (73.89%, 33.88%, 25.13% and 3.06%) were generally higher than today's lead-in (28.40%, 16.32%, 3.01% and 23.65%). We don't know yet if this value, but if it does this seems positive, as do the declining averages which I track in my instablog.

    I see that even with today's higher volume and (expected) increase in daily short sales, our VWAP didn't weaken as much as might be expected, finishing just barely below the 8/14 value of 0.2988. This was even though our "buys" percentage was still biased to the sell side. Earlier in the day we had been as sour as 1:3.96 so we recovered later as price weakened, just as we have so often. There's still buying support all around this $0.30 level.

    If the improved metrics mean anything, we may not see those $0.28xx. But they occurred on the second and fourth days of the period. I can't guess if the better metrics suggest we won't see that range, but it certainly seems possible.

    On the traditional TA front, we're still above the falling trading channel support (~$0.272), but on slightly increasing volume (bad) just a little above the 25-period average (not so bad).

    As I mentioned before, we need to see what happens through this week to see if we're sticking with the established descending channel or going to move the trading range up slightly. The next couple days should give us a clue.

    The following was omitted from the daily concentrator posting.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 43.89%, min: 3.01%, max: 148.07%

    9/7/2012: (OTCQB:AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 39, MinTrSz: 187, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol 258695, AvTrSz: 6633
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3098, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3034
    # Buys, Shares: 22 92670, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3053
    # Sells, Shares: 17 166025, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3023
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.79 (35.8% "buys"), DlyShts 5000 (1.93%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 3.01%

    Again, I'm really interested in the short sales and "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" today, as I was yesterday. The header of this instablog contains some current thoughts on it. In summary, if we hadn't had a change in behavior on 8/17 and subsequently, I would be looking for downward price movement. But the nature of the change makes me wonder if behavior is about to change, for at least the short-term.

    The buy percentage recovered some already, although it is still below all of its averages. Average trade size remains in the area that I believe is retail-trade and daily short sales hit an extreme low (see the header of the instablog) and volume is piddling around its averages, being slightly to the downside ATM, probably not bad for a Friday.

    The combination of all that with price holding at $0.30 makes me ... alert for a small move up to begin.

    You may recall that recently I felt a change was coming and it appeared in the form of a small price drop. But we are in a descending trading channel and just exited a triangular formation that foretold the likelihood of a change. The change has just begun and I think it's important to see if we move down towards the falling support line or begin to establish a higher bottom range here.

    I commented on this in FPA's new instablog. So I won't repeat that here.

    The following was omitted from the daily concentrator posting.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 48.95%, min: 3.01%, max: 148.07%

    9/6/2012: (OTCQB:AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 63, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 33600, Vol 426600, AvTrSz: 6771
    Min. Pr: 0.3010, Max Pr: 0.3190, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3080
    # Buys, Shares: 27 89500, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3100
    # Sells, Shares: 36 337100, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3074
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell (21% "buys"), 1:3.77, DlyShts 55006 (12.9%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 16.32%

    An AH trade of 7.6K @ $0.305, a "sell", is not included on the FINRA daily short sales data. Adding this to the FINRA-reported day's volume moves the short s ales percentage from 13.13% to my calculated figure of 12.9%. If it is also added t o the shorts sales, it moves to 14.7%.

    Daily short sales continues to trend lower. It looks like the 10-day average will go below the 25 and 50-day averages (they are both quite close) today or Monday. Volume came up as price weakened again and may have achieved "spike" status - details below. Average trade sizes continue to suggest predominately retail trading. "Buy" percentage ranks in the bottom 10 - looks like about 9th lowest since I began tracking.

    There's quite a few things, when combined, that make me think we are "bottomed" out, or at least very near so. But last time I thought this we did touch $0.28 (but only two trades IIRC) and did a solid $0.29. So be wary.

    More recently a VWAP of $0.30 demonstrated good support for 6 consecutive days and then began a move up. So be opportunistic.

    A possible volume "spike"? The 10 through 100-day averages are (in thousands) 352, 387, 361, and 317. Today's (9/6) volume of 427 exceeds all those averages and more than doubles the average of the last week, 208.3K. If it is a spike, a change is suggested - in this case from weakening price.

    The low "buy" percentage is invariably followed by increase in that metric, although price has no strong correlation in its movement.. At current price levels, I think as the "buy" percentage comes back towards normal range the price will at least stabilize and, considering the potential higher general awareness of Axion now, likely will begin to appreciate.

    Using more traditional TA, we've been in a consolidation triangle and are now at the point where a break out, one way or the other, becomes increasingly likely as time passes (usually around 60%-%75% of the lateral distance, but these are only the most likely areas - it's not uncommon to "go the distance").

    The following was omitted from the daily concentrator posting.

    I'm really interested in the short sales and "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" today.

    If JP is right and my thoughts about how things generally work "behind the curtain" would seldom (never?) happen, all this is wasted effort. Since the share price is so low I discount his argument about "capital requirements" impact because the market-maker could get really long AXPW and still have almost no significant impact on capital requirements for any major market-maker. I believe my conclusions, based on extensive digging over time, may have some validity. Proceeding on that basis ...

    Heavy selling today with a very low short sales percentage suggests a couple of things.

    First, few certificate conversions are occurring and the short sales come from one of two places: new sell orders from retail brokerage customers or even some larger sellers that have shares in street name and ready access to market-maker(s), possibly evening owning one. I discount the latter as hitting the bid as price was driven downward in conjunction with a high daily short sales was the common scenario. This may have been evidenced by the high "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" seen during those times.

    Another possibility is that shares backing prior sell orders flowed to the market-makers and they have a very low cost basis for these shares. They could easily sell at lower prices and still make (additional?) profit.

    Looking at the "buy:sell" ratio, short sales percentage and "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", I suspect there was a lot of this as a low short sales percentage suggests most "sells" came from shares already in a market-maker's portfolio (most likely flowing in from prior sell orders which were shorted?). Market-makers that had shares with a low cost basis flowing in could easily sell at these lower prices and still maintain or increase profit. Short sales would be new sell orders for shares not in a market-maker's portfolio. For this, keep in mind there are multiple market-makers and some could be neutral, others short and still others (getting?) long as shares flow in. All this suggests two things: a low volume of new sell orders and selling pressure from new sellers was low, both cases because of the short sales level. Considered in light of average trade size, this conclusion seems to be reinforced as the average trade size suggest retail trades dominated.

    We don't know if "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" has any value yet, but at 16.32% (a very low value, as seen below) it does suggest that sellers were more patient that in some past times and let the trade come up to the ask - a distinct change from past behavior of the big sellers. This smacks more of market-makers with a long position as shares from past sell orders flow in, if the statistic has any validity. Retail sellers tend to get more impatient as the day progresses and I believe this metric would be higher if retail selling occurred in volume and dominated trading.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 64.26%, min: 16.32%, max: 148.07%

    9/5/2012: Following partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 38, MinTrSz: 113, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol 234720, AvTrSz: 6177
    Min. Pr: 0.3150, Max Pr: 0.3250, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3189
    # Buys, Shares: 19 64807, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3212
    # Sells, Shares: 17 129800, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3174
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 40113, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3200
    Buy:Sell 1:2.00 (27.6% "buys"), DlyShts 36857 (15.7%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 28.40%

    First a note about "buys" today. Note the unusual "unknown" volume, which usually is zero. 40K of that was one trade of $0.32 at 10:30 with bid/ask at $0.316/$0.324. Prior to that it could have been a "buy" or a "sell" (only three trades at that price). After that trade it would have been a "buy" in every case, 10 trades. Trying to get a proper sense of the sentiment associated with that particular trade, I go with the majority and think it was truly a "buy". This would put the buy percentage at 44.7%, much more in line with what we've seen recently (percentages of 70.4, 42.2, 38.7, 64.6, 29.9, 59.6, 90.8).

    We continue to see intra-day indications of positive sentiment. After the early action, before 12:00, asks tended to the weaker side dropping from an early $0.325 to as low as 32. Bids started at $0.32 and moved lower to $0.316. After that with asks at $0.32 at 12:13, bidders began doing a little shoving, moving to $0.3162 ... getting to as high as $0.32 but mostly $0.3172 in the last hour-and-a-half before weakening again to $0.3155 in the last 17 minutes. This is the third(?) time recently that we've seen a little jostling as people try to get to the window and place their bets on the winning entry.

    Other than that, volume remains low and daily short sales remain low and seem to be trending down, although they can't go too low without becoming completely "stupid low" again. Combining that with the continued price stability and now-severe compression (1 penny spread!), trade sizes down in the retail range (NYSEMKT:IMO) and the "buys" percentage near-term averages working towards convergence with the long-term averages, it looks like we are in a short-term consolidation pattern again. Been there a few days, I think, but didn't want to rush to judgment.

    As I look at everything, especially the low volume, reducing daily short sales and price compression, I don't expect us to get far into medium-term consolidation, if at all. My best guess is that the profit-taking and/or risk-reduction by (what I guess are) retail participants I thought might be going on is still in progress, but near an end. With the 10-day price average now above the 25-day and near crossing the 50-day average, I expect some movement soon. The last few days' VWAP trend seems to suggest this: $0.3155, $0.3190, $0.3197, and $0.3189, and early in the day it was $0.321 for the first hour and 10 minutes (82.6K shares traded).

    The following was omitted from the daily concentrator posting.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 88.23%, min: 28.40%, max: 148.07%

    9/4/2012: (OTCQB:AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the APC.
    # Trds: 25, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 15000, Vol 110094, AvTrSz: 4404
    Min. Pr: 0.3151, Max Pr: 0.3240, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3197
    # Buys, Shares: 23 99994, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3202
    # Sells, Shares: 2 10100, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3151
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 9.90:1 (90.8% "buys"), DlyShts 14955 (13.6%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 148.07%

    An AH trades of 10K at $0.3200 is not included in FINRA-reported data. Including this in the volume would move the FINRA-based percentage calculated to my intra-day chart value, 13.6%. If we also assume it was a short sale, the percentage moves to 22.7%.

    I'm still good with volume continuing downward, especially with the daily short sales following a similar trend. When I add in that our near-term re-trace seems to be ending and price made a small turn up, average trade sizes seems to be moving more and more towards retail investors' sizes and buy:sell trending positive, what's not to like?

    Well, some folks want a pop and may get it, but I'm still hoping for and seeing near-term suggestions that this is a grind upward in progress. I like that.

    I remain positive on the price action and near-term prospects and still foresee only small downside risk. Regardless of a "pause" earlier than I expected (some short-term profit taking and risk reduction?), I'm still expecting the $0.35-$0.37 range to present another opportunity to "take a breather".

    This technical assessment of my experimental stuff seems to be bolstered by the recent positive press in the green space and from Rosewater. I believe that as John has surmised, when the market becomes aware of the Axion story it will have a huge move. I believe we are seeing the beginnings of this now, which I hope will manifest as a grind upwards.

    The following was omitted from the daily concentrator posting.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg (through 9/4): 148.07%

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

    Additional disclosure: I'm early on a learning curve and also experimenting. A jaundiced view of my writings would be appropriate.

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Comments (19)
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  • greengirl64
    , contributor
    Comments (226) | Send Message
     
    Thank you for your analysis, but how big an upside surprise will it take to drive out the shorts? It's been mighty demoralizing to see this price erosion even as AXPW seems poised to start selling its products.
    10 Sep 2012, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18517) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Greengirl64:

     

    I think these are not "short sales" as we retail investors normally think of them, but rather are just normal effects of "market making" mechanical activities and rules.

     

    Market-makers are exempt from certain "naked shorting" rules (SEC Reg SHO) to facilitate their market-making function. They do not have to borrow shares prior to sale, as a normal shorter would have to do.

     

    The "shorts" are not active in AXPW as far as I can tell. The "daily short sales" I reference are (mostly?) just the normal market-maker activities. FINRA and SEC rules require that if the sold shares are not already in the portfolio of the seller (market-maker in our case), it must be flagged as a short sale.

     

    Normal process is:
    - someone long, with shares at a brokerage or in certificate form, wants to sell and places the order;
    - the market-maker receives the order but doesn't have the shares yet in their portfolio;
    - the market-maker may buy the shares but there is normally up to three days before the transfer of "ownership" is completed (by a DTCC subsidiary, maybe CEDE?) and longer if conversion from certificate is needed and some other delays are also possible;
    - the market-maker may sell before buying as well (usual case I think);
    - either way, the market-maker completes the sell order by making a "naked short sale" and flagging the order as "Short Sale";
    - subsequently the sold shares at the brokerage (certificates will be converted first and then registered as appropriate to be electronically handled from that point onward) are transferred to the market-maker's control.

     

    The incoming shares backing the original sell order may be used to "net out" the short sales (100 sold short, 100 received = zero balance). If the market-maker chose, shares could be purchased in the market to cover the short sale ("buy to cover" or "covering buy"). Then the incoming from the original order would make the market-maker "long" and they can be sold when they arrive (100 shorted + 100 bought in the market + 100 received = 100 long position).

     

    I don't know if "netting out" or doing a "covering buy" and then sale is most common. I believe that the situation of the market-makers that allows the best balance of risk, profit and regulatory compliance drives their decisions. So action could be different each day and order and market-maker.

     

    If you'd like to check OTC short reports (issued every two weeks),
    http://bit.ly/wN1uvi
    and go down to "Short Sale by Symbol" and type in AXPW in the box.

     

    You'll see that even the largest numbers are not significant. I believe that what you do see is nothing more than the effects of "lag" (usually three days or less, but there are exceptions) causing the "running balance" from day-to-day activities to be other than zero on the "as of date" of required reporting.

     

    A good example is the May 31st entry. Looking at the short sales chart (the top one) in this instablog, you can see the effects of the higher short sales and lag causing a larger-than-normal short position to be reported on the required reporting date. In this particular case, I believe that delays caused by conversion from certificate form to registration in street name (as described by John Petersen) caused the "bump".

     

    Scrolling back, you can see many other instances. We know, from SEC filings, that holders of certificates were doing a lot of selling (for reasons totally unrelated to AXPW) over the last couple of years.

     

    HTH,
    HardToLove

     

    EDIT: I forgot to mention that my concern with them is for the intelligence they may provide in guessing "what's going on and what's next" when combined with other metrics we can assemble. It's all experimental right now.
    11 Sep 2012, 07:26 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1264) | Send Message
     
    declining shorts = less future supply at current prces because MM are the shorts. reading that right?
    16 Sep 2012, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18517) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Mathieu: "less future supply at current prces because MM are the shorts. reading that right"

     

    If you're referring to the declining peak short percentage spikes mentioned in the header, that's my guess. I'm thinking it means that the selling pressure is less aggressive, as a percentage of activity, as the MM shorts are the effective "(somewhat murky) window into what the sellers look like in context".

     

    Moreover, I suspect it might mean the same at some higher prices. Not that we won't see an increase, but that the increase may be less than we might expect. I suspect this because the declining peaks occurred at higher prices and volumes as well. So we have to suspect that some selling at, e.g. $0.35, reduced the seller supply at that price level and replaced them with sellers at, e.g. $0.40. But not 100% replacement of near-term sellers - some of the buyers will be "stronger hands".

     

    As you and others have mentioned, the effect of volume exhibits in tendencies toward certain actions by investors and traders. When this is combined with what's appearing in the short sales percentages peaks I think the peak-to-peak decline when volume was strong was important but when volume was weak even more important. Combined with the volume peaks getting lower and the buy:sell ratios behaving well during these times, I have to believe that supply at these levels is weakening.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    17 Sep 2012, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1264) | Send Message
     
    can't wait to see if we hold around 27 today. could reverse today/ monday or continue trend. i won't be able to check up on AXPW today, in-laws and card tourney but i look forward to reading your stuff here and in the concentrator.
    28 Sep 2012, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18517) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks Mathieu!

     

    Early bid/ask has Citadel again dancing with FANC and TEJS on the ask side, moving early offers downward to $0.272 currently.

     

    On the bid side though there is lots of offers at $0.25 (46.8K *presented* - how many are behind those are unknown) by CSTI, NITE, UBSS, BNCH and FANC and TEJS already began the shuffling that should result from a substantial buy-side imbalance by moving the bid to $0.2525. I'm suspecting a very small portion of the bids to be "covering buys" from the MMs to offset yesterdays ~34.8K that sold short.

     

    Right now, 9:00, control is in the hands of the sellers - if they hold the line early we should see bidders start to get antsy in an hour or two.

     

    I'm sure most of the folks follow at least the traditional TA type of stuff offered on their platforms and recognize the same possible bottoming signs I see.

     

    So, with you, xxx <<--- fingers crossed!

     

    Enjoy the respite from the grind here and win big in the tournament!

     

    HardToLove
    28 Sep 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6169) | Send Message
     
    Hi HT
    Based on a rough calculation, I came up with about 14.7M shares being purchased since the start of June. Does that sound about right?
    6 Oct 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18517) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FPA: Are you referring to "buy:sell" "purchase" or a more general figure?

     

    HardToLove
    6 Oct 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6169) | Send Message
     
    Hi HT
    I am looking for a net total number of shares acquired since the start of June. Can I calculate that by adding up the daily volume's from June on, and dividing by two?
    10 Oct 2012, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18517) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » FPA: I have never thought about that. ISTM that for every acquisition (other than share issuance) there is a sale, so no net change.

     

    I'm guessing that the pertinent item would be net money flows? I think most standard charting tools have one or more - Chailkin, MFI, accumulation distribution. I'm not sure how they would be interpreted,

     

    I also have money, daily, segregated by buy, sell and unknown that I could provide in various forms if you thought it might be useful.

     

    As to divide by two, only if we think every sale involved a buy and sell by an intermediary, such as a market-maker. But we know there are inter and intra-broker trades that don't involve a market-maker - shares go directly from a holder to a buyer. There's "dark pools", although I would be surprised if AXPW was involved in these, which are primarily for *very* large players like mutual funds and such.

     

    If we assume a very high percentage of trades went through a market-maker purchase/sale process (and I have no idea if that would be a safe assumption), for a ballpark estimate the divide by two might be very reasonable.

     

    I just don't see though how we determine that the shares landed where they've not been sold over and over as time passed.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    10 Oct 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6169) | Send Message
     
    I think you are right, its not likely that they would be large dark pools associated with AXPW... So as a rough guess, about 14.7M shares have been accumulated since June... There might be some trading action, but most of the time, the range on the stock price was pretty small, Thanks HT.
    10 Oct 2012, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1264) | Send Message
     
    hey HTL, wil you comment on cocentrator AND here as inflection reults get made. even if concentrator stuff is just "added inflection data."

     

    how do the longer day calca compare to the shorter day? do they take longer/shorter periods to flip between positive and negative? do they spend more time around zero fliping between positive and negative from day to day)?
    13 Oct 2012, 11:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18517) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Mathieu: I post most of each day's comments both places and will continue that practice unless it appears that most would rather I don't.

     

    I update the top of the instablog each day (*usually* - sometimes get bogged down) with new charts and comments right in the "header" so that the latest is near the top - little scrolling needed unless you want to see older comments. I'll continue that in the new blog as well.

     

    As to the calculations, I added a five-day too. The behavior is somewhat unexpected - sometimes longer ones "flip" first, sometimes there's a "sequence" of flipping that was unexpected by me. These things seem very reliable so far, but with more "noise" in the five-day and it looks like best indications would be a combination of periods, changes in the rate of change and/or reversals, depending on how "fine grained" we want to get.

     

    I *suspect* that a good backtest will allow derivation of a good formula that will offer a high-reliability "signal" to issue. But we will want to take some time and care to be sure we've "got it right".

     

    We may want to add some more inflection poin calcs too - ISTM that a combination of inflections over different sets of data (or maybe an inflection points union or intersect - harkening back to some very shallow understanding of set theory).

     

    I'm hoping that more folks participate this time as spotting the "best" or "likely" "symptoms" could use an eye or two more attuned to this stuff than am I.

     

    If I can get a good layout determined, I'll throw up a new instablog later today with the charts and a minimal header just touching on my thoughts so far.

     

    As always, I'm willing to send my spreadsheets along too so that folks with the skills can add important calcs and/or charts that I might not be so adept at without assistance.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2012, 07:46 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1264) | Send Message
     
    it should act that smaller days flip more. longer should flip less. is that not what you are seeing? also, backing out strong hands you know of is a bad idea imo because the formula is really just trying to predict when buyers take control of the price action versus sellers. that make sense?

     

    the hard part of making inflection calculations is that you are guessing at relationships between variables but i'll think on it and maybe make a primer so that people that want to help will have an idea about what they should look for and how it will likely be represented in a formula.
    14 Oct 2012, 01:05 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1264) | Send Message
     
    flip more from day to day short term, with longer term flips having less back and forth days. i realize reading that i could be misread. anyway is that not what you are seeing?
    14 Oct 2012, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18517) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Mathieu: I've not yet tried to correlate the inflection points with other things like volume, short sales, etc. Just took a look initially at price and calculated points.

     

    There's plenty of follow-on possibilities that might be worth exploring that I haven't even begun to recognize yet.

     

    A plain-English primer would fit right at the top of the instablog I think.

     

    That would be a big enhancement, IMO, over what I might be able to offer.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2012, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18517) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As mentioned in my reply above, haven't even looked yet.

     

    There's some off-and-on real-life distractions that slow me down - today was paying some bills and of course one of the needed web-sites was down for a bit.

     

    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2012, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1264) | Send Message
     
    cool, i'll think on it and try and get something up about the formation of this formula and how that should guide efforts.
    14 Oct 2012, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18517) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » New instablog incorporating buy:sell inflection point calculations is up.

     

    Fast read right now.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    14 Oct 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
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