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H. T. Love
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Spent over 30 years in computer systems work, many different functions. Owned my own business for awhile. Got tired of it (managing employees is not my baliwick) and stopped doing it professionally. Did other things, off and on, for some more years and finally bumped into this investing/trading... More
  • AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 67 comments
    Nov 14, 2012 8:20 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    This is the fourth installment off the original "AXPW: Some Intra-Day Trade Charting" instablogs I've started doing on Seeking Alpha. The others grew, as I added daily commentary and FINRA data, to the point I was afraid the load time might become an irritant for folks that have less internet bandwidth or older computing equipment so I've started rolling to a new one aperiodically.

    Versions subsequent to the original (latest to oldest) can be found here.

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 9/6/2012 - Xx/xx/2012

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 7/7/2012 - 9/5/2012

    I've been manually collecting this data while volume was low and it was therefore reasonable to do so. I'll stop when it gets too large unless I can craft a mechanized capture of most of the stuff.

    I'll update this daily as long as I can for anybody that might find it useful. The chart will stay near the top and the text updates expressing my most recent thoughts will follow after the chart.

    ============== NEW STUFF FOLLOWS ============

    I'm going minimalist to start here.

    First, I've arranged the chart segments to put what I think are related stuff close together.

    Should I break the chart into one or more manageable pieces? If so, suggestions for "clumping" are welcome.

    Second, the buy:sell inflection point calculations have periods that may not be appropriate for what we are attempting. Is there a preferred set of periods better than my 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 (200 will come when enough data is available). Should I drop one or more?

    I'm not going to comment on what I think I saw on the chart yet - I would love to have unpolluted minds not trapped in my box helping out here.

    I'm going to reduce my commentary on the EOD stuff regarding shorts and such as I'd rather see our thoughts gravitate towards the inflection points and don't want to distract from that.

    In the below chart note that the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!

    (right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

    AXPW Intra-day Statistics Chart 20121113

    The following are modified inflection point calculations bracketing a price chart for comparison. Note that the false bullish moves and contrary moves of the 5-day has been eliminated.

    The two inflection points are calculated differently from each other and differently from the original above. More work to do, this is a start, hopefully.

    Comments and further suggestions welcome.

    (right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

    AXPW Intra-day Statistics Chart Test IP Calculations 20121113

    In all the charts above I had to:
    - estimate 3/27 buy:sell ratio because I couldn't get ADVFN screen-shots that day,
    - omit 3/28 data due to garbage from the ADVFN feed.

    11/13/2012: (NASDAQ:AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 57, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 29049, Vol 317942, AvTrSz: 5578
    Min. Pr: 0.2210, Max Pr: 0.2510, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2406
    # Buys, Shares: 41 249537, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2428
    # Sells, Shares: 16 68405, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2327
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 3.65:1 (78.5% "buys"), DlyShts 79738 (25.08%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 116.57%

    I'm feeling better now - shorts are returning towards normal levels, suggesting that whatever was causing, IMO, the market-makers to be long (and likely increasing downward price pressure as well as producing nasty buy:sell ratios) is abating. This is supported by a nice price rebound and a really steady pattern of price and buy:sell progress throughout the day, resulting in a close just 1/10th of a penny below the day's high.

    Volume wasn't bad for the first day's price rise following two consecutive relatively high-volume (446K and 395K) down days. Axion-nl's notice of the hammer formation proved prescient. We closed, AFAICT above the falling support, ~$0.2490 AFAICT, of our descending trading channel. All the oscillators I follow, except the ADX and related, have started turning positive and left the oversold condition. Even the DI- component (the "selling" tracker) of the ADX has started to weaken now. Momentum was so far down that it will take a while for it to go positive from it's current 0.8621 reading, sans large volume and price movement upward.

    Last note on the traditional TA: I've a short-term (began at the high of 10/17, $0.34) descending resistance which has been defining the falling highs very reliably since. It now forms an apex of a triangle with the falling support of our long-term trading channel. Bulkowski has noted that strong trend changes are noted with high frequency when the apex of a triangle is formed and encountered (during lateral movement across the chart) even if the price action is well outside the boundaries of the triangle. Putting that together with everything else, don't be surprised to see continued price movement up to the interior of our trading channel today. Good volume wouldn't surprise me either - in fact I think we need it to confirm that a turn has been made.

    If we had enough time before the quarterly report I would target a minimum move to $0.27 just on normal reversion to the mean behavior. We could do it in a day - after all 8% up from here is, as JP has termed it, "lunch money" for smaller trades and we saw a one-day 25% move up from Monday's low of $0.2018 and ~6.4% from the close.

    On my experimental charts front, the similarities to the lead-in to the August report keep strengthening: price action, volume, short sales behavior, ...

    Daily shorts moved right past the shorter-term averages and smacked right into the 100-day average, volume is amid all the averages, and buy percentage just leapfrogged all its percentage averages (44%, 46%, 48%, and 52%). Average trade size is still at the lower end of what I judge to be "retail" and still below it's averages. Not surprising, I guess, with the quarterly report so near - market-makers having to work harder with all the negative pressure seen.

    If my original inflection point calculations, and my interpretation of them, are valid we have a move up beginning. All the "correct" conditions exist: five-day called a rise early and then rolled over just before the price rise started; three of the other four periods curled up the following day and I expect the 25-day will follow suit today. It would seem we could expect a price rise of 3-4 pennies if no potential catalytic effects (the quarterly report) were in play. These don't predict range, but I just took a quick look at past price behavior when these conditions were seen to make a guess at what appreciation might develop.

    On another note, even with the increased daily shorts and very low "sells" in the "buy:sell" ratio, the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" continues to support John's assessment that our aggravating big sellers were essentially exhausted, if my thoughts about them being more likely to hit the bid are on target. The monthly average continues at a low value and even today's wasn't outlandish.

    The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
    Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64% 139.27%
    Mon. 10/22: 194.20% 19.54% 25.53% 15.21% 15.17%
    Wed. 10/31: 62.24% 149.46% 39.90%
    Mon. 11/05: 30.92% 7.61% 6.98% 3.53% 10.10%
    Mon. 11/12: 4.01% 116.57%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 41.01%, min: 3.53%, max: 149.46%

    1113 Vol 0317942, Sht 0079738 25.08% LHC 0.2210 0.2510 0.2500 b:s 3.65:1
    1112 Vol 0394606, Sht 0011750 02.98% LHC 0.2018 0.2505 0.2350 b:s 1:3.27
    1109 Vol 0446285, Sht 0031790 07.12% LHC 0.2490 0.2624 0.2549 b:s 1:2.49
    1108 Vol 0184350, Sht 0005300 02.87% LHC 0.2510 0.2645 0.2550 b:s 1:4.36
    1106 Vol 0451107 Vol 0234275, Sht 0010000 04.27% LHC 0.2550 0.2600 0.2552 b:s 1:1.49
    8734, Sht 0025782 05.62% LHC 0.2550 0.2745 0.2550 b:s 1:2.83
    1105 Vol 0413112, Sht 0073575 17.81% LHC 0.2651 0.2800 0.2700 b:s 1:1.36
    1102 Vol 0121685, Sht 0033240 27.32% LHC 0.2700 0.2900 0.2775 b:s 1:2.17
    1101 Vol 0064550, Sht 0013900 21.53% LHC 0.2650 0.2900 0.2900 b:s 4.87:1
    1031 Vol 0237627, Sht 0030993 13.04% LHC 0.2700 0.2800 0.2700 b:s 3.99:1[52]
    1026 Vol 0214540, Sht 0021142 09.85% LHC 0.2651 0.2905 0.2800 b:s 1:1.85
    1025 Vol 0189057, Sht 0016124 08.53% LHC 0.2870 0.3000 0.2950 b:s 1:1.28
    1024 Vol 0208128, Sht 0030500 14.65% LHC 0.2812 0.3000 0.2900 b:s 1:1.35
    1023 Vol 0308459, Sht 0035253 11.43% LHC 0.2800 0.2994 0.2890 b:s 1:1.41
    1022 Vol 0314476, Sht 0137200 43.63% LHC 0.2550 0.3000 0.2975 b:s 3.45:1
    1019 Vol 0115753, Sht 0052700 45.53% LHC 0.2901 0.3000 0.2960 b;s 2.06:1
    1018 Vol 0563350, Sht 0135400 24.03% LHC 0.2900 0.3139 0.3019 b:s 1:1.44[51]
    1017 Vol 0944468, Sht 0300576 31.82% LHC 0.3100 0.3400 0.3100 b:s 1.19:1
    1016 Vol 0309537, Sht 0026508 08.56% LHC 0.3000 0.3300 0.3299 b:s 1:1.004
    1015 Vol 0375477, Sht 0070800 18.86% LHC 0.3100 0.3250 0.3199 b:s 1.32:1
    1012 Vol 0238970, Sht 0034150 14.29% LHC 0.3000 0.3250 0.3199 b:s 1:1.30
    1011 Vol 0247500, Sht 0043900 17.74% LHC 0.3051 0.3300 0.3121 b:s 1:1.83
    1010 Vol 0386884, Sht 0030120 07.79% LHC 0.2920 0.3300 0.3099 b:s 1:2.69
    1009 Vol 0317310, Sht 0041475 13.07% LHC 0.3100 0.3340 0.3200 b:s 1.02:1
    1008 Vol 0217663, Sht 0031000 14.24% LHC 0.3000 0.3190 0.3170 b:s 1.02:1[50]
    1005 Vol 0387473, Sht 0233663 60.30% LHC 0.2965 0.3079 0.3079 b:s 10.15:1[49]
    1004 Vol 0269932, Sht 0113567 42.07% LHC 0.2965 0.3100 0.2965 b:s 1.54:1[48]
    1003 Vol 0392737, Sht 0215214 54.80% LHC 0.2850 0.3000 0.3000 b:s 8.93:1[47]
    1002 Vol 0597796, Sht 0103751 17.36% LHC 0.2610 0.3050 0.2900 b:s 2.87:1
    1001 Vol 0543197, Sht 0193537 35.63% LHC 0.2520 0.2780 0.2650 b:s 1.08:1
    0928 Vol 0348776, Sht 0085189 24.43% LHC 0.2530 0.2810 0.2700 b:s 1.03:1[46]
    0927 Vol 0498773, Sht 0034858 06.99% LHC 0.2650 0.2840 0.2700 b:s 1:3.11
    0926 Vol 0376833, Sht 0160300 42.54% LHC 0.2790 0.2945 0.2880 b:s 1.11:1
    0925 Vol 0842898, Sht 0280168 33.24% LHC 0.2705 0.2865 0.2850 b:s 1:1.91
    0924 Vol 0505646, Sht 0022580 04.47% LHC 0.2800 0.2923 0.2800 b:s 1:7.23
    0921 Vol 0236689, Sht 0036000 15.21% LHC 0.2870 0.2960 0.2960 b:s 1.87:1[45]
    0920 Vol 0258805, Sht 0054400 21.02% LHC 0.2840 0.2940 0.2900 b:s 1:1.03[44]
    0919 Vol 0319516, Sht 0032210 10.08% LHC 0.2840 0.2950 0.2890 b:s 1:2.59[43]
    0918 Vol 0433675, Sht 0038829 08.95% LHC 0.2830 0.3050 0.2850 b:s 1:2.51[42]
    0917 Vol 0181500, Sht 0042600 23.47% LHC 0.2900 0.3090 0.2950 b:s 1:2.44[41]
    0914 Vol 0259600, Sht 0116800 44.99% LHC 0.2910 0.3100 0.2910 b:s 3.29:1[40]
    0913 Vol 0171280, Sht 0099505 58.09% LHC 0.2886 0.3000 0.3000 b:s 3.34:1
    0912 Vol 0482927, Sht 0084685 17.54% LHC 0.2806 0.3000 0.2900 b:s 1:1.58[39]
    0911 Vol 0230273, Sht 0048678 50.20% LHC 0.2910 0.3000 0.3000 b:s 1.37:1
    0910 Vol 0464034, Sht 0068918 14.85% LHC 0.2904 0.3040 0.2949 b:s 1:1.62[38]
    0907 Vol 0258695, Sht 0005000 01.93% LHC 0.3000 0.3098 0.3000 b:s 1:1.79
    0906 Vol 0419000, Sht 0055006 13.13% LHC 0.3010 0.3190 0.3080 b:s 1:3.77[37]
    0905 Vol 0234720, Sht 0036857 15.70% LHC 0.3150 0.3250 0.3150 b:s 1:2.00
    0904 Vol 0100094, Sht 0014955 14.94% LHC 0.3151 0.3240 0.3200 b:s 3.80:1[36]
    0831 Vol 0347000, Sht 0148300 42.74% LHC 0.3120 0.3250 0.3200 b:s 1.47:1[35]
    0830 Vol 0158350, Sht 0029517 18.64% LHC 0.3110 0.3297 0.3155 b:s 1:2.34[34]
    0829 Vol 0171061, Sht 0065081 38.05% LHC 0.3152 0.3300 0.3200 b:s 1.83:1[33]
    0828 Vol 0244930, Sht 0091679 33.88% LHC 0.3275 0.3349 0.3300 b:s 1:1.58
    0827 Vol 0379015, Sht 0076050 20.07% LHC 0.3260 0.3400 0.3300 b:s 1:1.37
    0824 Vol 0354522, Sht 0194727 54.93% LHC 0.3256 0.3400 0.3299 b:s 2.68:1
    0823 Vol 0925685, Sht 0454735 49.12% LHC 0.3012 0.3380 0.3380 b:s 1.85:1[32]
    0822 Vol 0525637, Sht 0339699 64.63% LHC 0.3000 0.3050 0.3049 b:s 12.9:1
    0821 Vol 0304212, Sht 0156380 51.40% LHC 0.2900 0.3050 0.3049 b:s 2.03:1
    0820 Vol 0427246, Sht 0217826 50.98% LHC 0.3000 0.3050 0.3000 b:s 1.53:1
    0817 Vol 0930726, Sht 0582984 62.64% LHC 0.2800 0.3025 0.3000 b:s 5.32:1[31]
    0816 Vol 1171040, Sht 0207630 17.73% LHC 0.2961 0.3100 0.3000 b:s 1.93:1[30]
    0815 Vol 0764351, Sht 0155100 20.29% LHC 0.2860 0.3050 0.2996 b:s 2.53:1
    0814 Vol 0444854, Sht 0011257 02.53% LHC 0.2900 0.3070 0.3000 b:s 1:4.82
    0813 Vol 0184415, Sht 0039200 21.26% LHC 0.3000 0.3085 0.3069 b:s 1:5.48
    0810 Vol 0353845, Sht 0082200 23.23% LHC 0.3024 0.3100 0.3050 b:s 1:2.18
    0809 Vol 0099470, Sht 0035000 35.19% LHC 0.3023 0.3100 0.3099 b:s 1.10:1
    0808 Vol 0235510, Sht 0005100 02.17% LHC 0.3010 0.3199 0.3099 b:s 1:1.185
    0807 Vol 0115193, Sht 0010981 09.53% LHC 0.3100 0.3199 0.3103 b:s 2.41:1
    0806 Vol 0164530, Sht 0015600 09.48% LHC 0.3010 0.3200 0.3199 b:s 1.11:1[29]
    0803 Vol 0256566, Sht 0000000 00.00% LHC 0.3000 0.3200 0.3013 b:s 1:3.64
    0802 Vol 0471500, Sht 0133000 28.21% LHC 0.3000 0.3300 0.3025 b:s 1:1.51
    0801 Vol 0180429, Sht 0003900 02.16% LHC 0.3220 0.3398 0.3300 b:s 1:10.14
    0731 Vol 0119399, Sht 0026781 22.43% LHC 0.3330 0.3399 0.3394 b:s 1:1.13
    0730 Vol 0196534, Sht 0086700 44.11% LHC 0.3221 0.3400 0.3390 b:s 2.85:1
    0727 Vol 0166660, Sht 0095130 57.08% LHC 0.3350 0.3450 0.3351 b:s 6.04:1[28]
    0726 Vol 0468100, Sht 0020500 04.38% LHC 0.3300 0.3450 0.3400 b:s 1:1.27[27]
    0725 Vol 0279175, Sht 0023812 08.53% LHC 0.3300 0.3500 0.3400 b:s 1:1.05[26]
    0724 Vol 0267464, Sht 0097464 36.44% LHC 0.3190 0.3498 0.3290 b:s 2.32:1[25]
    0723 Vol 0425158, Sht 0139089 32.71% LHC 0.3100 0.3445 0.3445 b:s 2.63:1
    0720 Vol 0494205, Sht 0250209 50.63% LHC 0.3000 0.3300 0.3250 b:s 2.63:1[24]
    0719 Vol 0742608, Sht 0103200 13.90% LHC 0.2650 0.3150 0.2950 b:s 1:2.92
    0718 Vol 0155930, Sht 0094130 60.37% LHC 0.3000 0.3100 0.3030 b:s 1.95:1[23]
    0717 Vol 0699896, Sht 0193437 27.64% LHC 0.2955 0.3200 0.3000 b:s 1:1.12
    0716 Vol 0454228, Sht 0329088 72.45% LHC 0.3100 0.3220 0.3150 b:s 4.07:1
    0713 Vol 0296133, Sht 0044000 14.86% LHC 0.3125 0.3260 0.3220 b:s 2.08:1
    0712 Vol 0084702, Sht 0035802 42.27% LHC 0.3220 0.3420 0.3250 b:s 2.32:1[21]
    0711 Vol 0613489, Sht 0083397 13.59% LHC 0.3220 0.3444 0.3270 b:s 1:2.26
    0710 Vol 1256989, Sht 0266270 21.18% LHC 0.3220 0.3500 0.3271 b:s 1:2.88
    0709 Vol 0273667, Sht 0084923 31.03% LHC 0.3440 0.3599 0.3450 b:s 1.63:1[20]
    0706 Vol 0357574, Sht 0216160 60.45% LHC 0.3406 0.3500 0.3450 b:s 6.75:1[19]
    0705 Vol 0033600, Sht 0002500 07.44% LHC 0.3300 0.3500 0.3500 b:s 1.64:1[18]
    0703 Vol 0068869, Sht 0009588 13.92% LHC 0.3498 0.3500 0.3499 b:s 5.89:1
    0702 Vol 0155306, Sht 0038196 24.59% LHC 0.3350 0.3500 0.3500 b:s 50.77:1

    [18] An AH trade of 9.4K @ $0.3450, almost precisely 10% of the volume prior, 94.4K. I believe this is a Quercus-related trade. This volume is *not* included on FINRA-provided data. Adding that volume to both total and short sales would bring TO BE CONTINUED - FINRA REPORTED ERRONEOUS DATA (MISSING ~75% OF TRADES)!
    UPDATE: FINRA reported corrected data 7/12 with a short volume of 8,200 (7.9%) vs. the originally reported volume of 33,600 and short sales of 2,500 07.44%. I've changed the record above to reflect the correct values.
    [19] There was a 35K AH trade @ $0.345 that was 9.8% of the volume prior to that trade and I believe this was a Quercus-related trade. Adding this volume to both the day's total (upping it to 392,574) and short sales (taking that volume to 251,160) would yield 64% short sales for the day.
    [20] AH trade of 28K @ $0.3450, likely Quercus since it's 1/11th (~10%) of day's preceding volume).
    [21] There was a 5K "buy" @ $0.3420 just barely before the open, 09:29:38, that will not appear in the FINRA-reported daily volumes. With that, FINRA volumes indicate 42.27% short, higher than what I would report. *IF* that was a short sale, which we don't know, my calculated short percentage using FINRA numbers with the 5K added to both total and short volume, would be 45.5%
    [22] AH trade of 9K @ $0.30 a buy. Adding this to daily volume would take short percentage down to 27.3%. If we also include it as a short sale (reasonable as most after hour sales seem related to a Quercus sale, although it was only ~1.3% of daily total prior to that trade - much lower than the normal 10%), short percentage moves to 28.6%.
    [23] An apparent Quercus-related AH trade of 15.5K, which would not appear in FINRA data, would move the calculated short percentage to 54.91%, if include in just the total volume, and to 63.4% if included there and in short sales both.
    [24] AH trade of 15K shares at $0.31. It is not near 1/11th of the daily volume, as has been the case when we saw trades apparently associated with Quercus selling. If the normal 10% was involved, the size would have been around 46.3K. Adding the 15K to total volume would move short sales percentage to 49.1%. Adding it to short sales as well would but the percentage at 52.1%.
    [25] AH trade of 5,566 shares doesn't show on FINRA data. Adding to the day's volume would move short sales percentage to 35.7% and adding also to short sales would more the percentage to 37.7%.
    [26] A pre-market trade of 14K @ $0.35. Adding this to FINRA volume lowers the short percentage to 8.1%. If I also add it to the short sales, it goes to 37,812, ~12.9%.
    [27] 4,401 shares traded after-hours. It set the day's low at $0.33 and doesn't seem of the nature that we could attribute it to Quercus or any of our other larger sellers. With it being less than 1% of our total volume, it wouldn't have a noticeable effect on either short sales or buy:sell ratio.
    [28] It looks like Quercus was in - we had a 16K AH "buy" at $0.335, almost exactly 10% of the volume prior to that trade. Adding the 16K AH trade to FINRA day's volume would lower that short percentage to my calculated percentage, 52.1%. Adding it to the short sales too would increase the FINRA and my calculated percentage to 60.8%.
    [29] There was an AH trade of 930 shares at $0.3050, below the close of $0.3199. But the trade was marked pr. seq. by ADVFN, indicating that it was a trade that occurred earlier in the day.
    [30] 45 seconds after the close the was an AH trade of 27.7K @ $0.30 which is not included on the FINRA data. Adding this to the FINRA-reported volume moves short percentage from 17.73% to 17.2%. If we assume it was a short sale and also add it to the short sales volume, the percentage moves to 19.5%.
    [31] At 9:18:40 a pre-market trade of 5K at $0.30 went that will not appear on the FINRA-reported data. Adding this to the FINRA volume would bring the short sales percentage from 62.64% to 62.3% Adding it also to the short sales would move the percentage to 62.8%.
    [32] Two pre-market 25K trades, one at $0.305 and the other at $0.307, aren't included in the FINRA data. Adding them to total volume would move it to 975,685 and short percentage from 49.12% to 46.6%. If, however, we also add those to the short sales the percentage moves to 51.7%.
    [33] The short sales included a reporting of 6,846 "exempt" shares in the daily short sales. Backing these out of the short sales would yield a short percentage of 34.04%, about 4 basis-points down from what I report.
    [34] Two items of note today. An AH trade of 15K @ $0.3155 @ 04:13:49 doesn't appear in the FINRA-reported data. Including this in total volume yields a short sales percentage of 18.64%. If we also include it in short sales, it yields 25.7% short sales. We also had exempt short sales, 10,563, for the second day in a row. Backing these out from the FINRA-reported data moves the calculated percentage from 18.64% to 11.97%. Adding the 15K AH trade to, first, the total volume and then also the adjusted short sales would yield 10.9% and 19.6%.
    [35] A pre-market sale of 5K @ $0.3150 doesn't appear in the FINRA-reported totals. Adding this to the FINRA-reported total volume drops short percentage to 42.1% from the calculated 42.7%. Adding this 5K to shorts as well would move the percentage to 43.6%.
    [36] An AH trades of 10K at $0.3200 is not included in FINRA-reported data. Including this in the volume would move the FINRA-based percentage calculated to my intra-day chart value, 13.6%. If we also assume it was a short sale, the percentage moves to 22.7%.
    [37] An AH trade of 7.6K @ $0.305, a "sell", is not included on the FINRA daily short sales data. Adding this to the FINRA-reported day's volume moves the short s ales percentage from 13.13% to my calculated figure of 12.9%. If it is also added t o the shorts sales, it moves to 14.7%.
    [38] Three pre-market trades occurred, totaling 7.8K at $0.303. Two totaling 7.5K are not included (I don't know why the 300 shares are in there - somebody goofed?) in the FINRA provided volumes. Adding this to the FINRA total volume moves the short sales from the reported 14.85% to my calculated 14.6%. If the 7.5K is also added to the short sales, the short percentage moves to 16.2%.
    [39] An AH trade of 48K at $0.2900 doesn't appear on the FINRA-reported daily short sales. Adding this to FINRA's reported volume of 482,927 moves the short sales from 17.54% percentage to 16%. Adding also to the short sales would yield 25% daily short sales.
    [40] A 10K AH trade @ $0.291, the same price as the last in-market trade of 15K, occurred at 16:23. If this is combined with that 15K trade, it equates to ~10% of the volume prior to those to trades (1/11th of total volume). This makes me think those two trades were a "sell" from Quercus to the market-maker covering his intra-day short sales at a higher price (VWAP was $0.2987). If we add this 10K to the total volume FINRA reports, short sales percentage moves from 44.99% to 43.3%. If we also add it to the short sales the percentage moves to 47%.
    [41] A 2K AH trade at $0.2902 is excluded from the FINRA-provided volumes. If we include this in the total volume the short percentage drops from the calculated 23.47% to 23.2%. If it's also added to short sales, the percentage moves to 24.3%.
    [42] An AH trade @ $0.285 of 16,450 shares is not included in FINRA-provided volumes. Adding this to total volume reduces the calculated short percentage to 8.6% from the calculated 8.95%. If we also add it to the short volume, the percentage moves to 12.3%, a noticeable difference.
    [43] An AH trade of 31K is not included in the FINRA-reported volumes. Adding this to total volume would move the short sale percentage from 10.8% to 9.2%. If we also add it to the short sales, it moves to 19.2%. However, we have about concluded that these are usually "covering buys" and will stop reporting this aspect in the future.
    [44] An AH trade of 25K @ $0.2900 is not reported in the FINRA-reported data. Adding this to the total volume moves the short percentage from 21.02% to 19.2%. We have decided that in most cases this is a covering buy for intra-day short sales and so will cease adding this to shorts and reporting what short percentage might result if those were short sales.
    [45] An AH trade of 4k @ $0.2913 is not included in the FINRA-provided data. Adding it to the total volume would move the short percentage from 15.21% to 15%. If it's added to short sales as well, the percentage moves to 16.6%.
    [46] Pre-market and AH trades, 5K @ $0.2720 (a "buy") and 5,507 @ $0.26 (a sell) respectively, are not included in the FINRA-reported short sales file. Adding this volume to the total volume moves the short percentage from FINRA's 24.43% to my calculated 23.7%. If both were short sales the percentage moves to 25.6%.
    [47] 2 AH trades, 2x10K $0.30 are not in the FINRA-reported numbers. Adding these to total volume move short percentage from 54.8% to 52.1%. If we also add them to short sales, it becomes 57%. I thought these might be Quercus related, but the price is wrong and an Axionista reported at least one was his.
    [48] A pre-market trade of 500 shares at $0.31 and an AH trade of 10K at $0.30 are not included in the FINRA data. Adding these to the FINRA-reported volume lowers the short percentage from 42.07% to 40.5%. If we also add them to the short sales it moves to 44.24%.
    [49] We had a strange congruence today of a single identifiable trade that exactly matched the "short exempt" quantity in today's FINRA-reported short sales data. This is a rare event. Moreover, someone suggested the quantity is quite close to the estimated remaining shares held by Quercus. Adding to the intrigue is the fact that ~10% of daily volume is ~35,224 shares so if this was Quercus-related it is a big exception to past behavior of limiting transaction to 10% of the day's volume. What's the magic number? 82,950 shares were reported as "short exempt" and a trade went at 15:52:22 at $0.30 for that quantity. Adding to today's exceptionalism is the fact that 49 trades, or ~72.1% were at $0.30, accounting for 330.8K shares, 77.6% of the day's volume.
    [50] There was a small, 5K, AH trade at $0.319. Adding it to the FINRA total volume moves the short percentage from 14.24% to 13.9%, If we also add it to the short volume, the percentage moves to 16.2%.
    [51] A small AH trade of 543 shares at $0.3019 is not included in the FINRA data. Adding this to the day's volume moves the short percentage to 24% from 24.03%. If we add it to shorts too, the percentage becomes 24.11%.
    [52] There were two AH trades, 2K at $0.271 and 8.9K at $0.270, that aren't included in the FINRA-reported data. If we add these two total FINRA-reported volume the short percentage moves from 13.4% to 12.47%. If we also add it to the short sales it moves to 16.86%. Although we believe Quercus is not in the market any longer, it seems worthwhile to consider the possibility they might be because we keep seeing selling pressure. It could be do to other players though. Anyway, 1/11th of the days volume, including the AH trades, would be ~22.6K. Depending on what trades near the end of the day we include, including the AH trades regardless, we can see 20.9K to 25.9K at prices of $0.270-$0.271 that might be some kind of market-maker balancing trades if Quercus or someone else selling ~10% of volume is in the market.

    11/12/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 74, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 394606, AvTrSz: 5333
    Min. Pr: 0.2018, Max Pr: 0.2505, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2352
    # Buys, Shares: 22 89558, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2333
    # Sells, Shares: 50 293048, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2352
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 12000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2500
    Buy:Sell 1:3.27 (22.7% "buys"), DlyShts 11750 (2.98%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 4.01%

    Interesting day. The below shows evidence of ... panic? Prices bouncing all over the place after a fairly stable morning through close to 14:00. Interesting that even with all this and the large price spread, volume was lower than yesterday's. Could this wide price spread, price instability and slightly lower volume be the confirmation that we have bottomed? Normally we would expect this to have a big volume spike (yesterday's was, as mentioned, a potential spike, but not all that big) if this was the case. But with a lot of shares in Axionista hands maybe the supply just wasn't there at these prices. This thought might be supported by a rise well off the lows into the close. Buyers had to pay higher prices later in the day. That might bode well going forward.

    5 trades, 23000 shares, 0.2018-0.2050, VWAP 0.2028, 14:42-14:50
    2 trades, 11200 shares, 0.2122-0.2150, VWAP 0.2135, 14:41-14:42
    15 trades, 92700 shares, 0.2200-0.2222, VWAP 0.2209, 14:21-14:50
    6 trades, 19077 shares, 0.2250-0.2229, VWAP 0.2283, 14:59-15:17
    7 trades, 35250 shares, 0.2300-0.2300, VWAP 0.2300, 14:36-15:49
    3 trades, 6500 shares, 0.2350-0.2390, VWAP 0.2353, 15:45-15:53
    9 trades, 43923 shares, 0.2400-0.2449, VWAP 0.2405, 13:58-15:43
    5 trades, 13400 shares, 0.2490-0.2490, VWAP 0.2490, 09:30-13:57
    22 trades, 149556 shares, 0.2500-0.2505, VWAP 0.2500, 09:52-13:55

    On the traditional TA front, we decisively broke the descending support of the falling trading channel and closed well below it. This could be the first pipe of a double-pipe bottom, which would suggest a strong price move upward, although the last one I saw on another stock took a while to come to fruition. It did move up steadily though. The stochastic has crossed up and has exited oversold. Williams %R has left oversold as well. Go figure.

    The other oscillators I use appear to have bottomed, but for the ADX stuff.

    Daily short sales continue at a low level and I'm beginning to suspect, in the context of price and volume action, that some market-makers either have their portfolios getting "pre-loaded" with shares to be sold or one or more of them are aggressively playing the stock. The latter strikes me as a somewhat remote possibility though - just not enough volume. An occasional play like this by a market-maker or two seems reasonable, but to do it longer-term with low volumes on mostly low-penny price spreads just doesn't seem rational. So the first scenario seems somewhat more likely.

    On my experimental charts, any indications of a "stealth rally" have vanished into the sunset. Buy:sell averages falling, average trade sizes continue to weaken now, ...

    As I've mentioned several times, the current charts bear a strong resemblance to what was seen approaching the 8/15 report by Axion. If we are indeed emulating that action we can expect a reversal of price action and most of the other indicators unless the report and conference call has some negative surprises or, maybe, lack of positive indicators.

    My original experimental inflection point calculations, which we have identified as being somewhat flaky, has the 5-day just starting to roll over after rising and there's no turn in the longer-term lines yet. If the five-day continues to roll over and one or more of the longer-term ones start to curl upwards in the next few days, we will have what appears, based on past behavior of these, a bullish price indication. But remember this is flaky and experimental and we've only got data since last February.

    The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
    Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64% 139.27%
    Mon. 10/22: 194.20% 19.54% 25.53% 15.21% 15.17%
    Wed. 10/31: 62.24% 149.46% 39.90%
    Mon. 11/05: 30.92% 7.61% 6.98% 3.53% 10.10%
    Mon. 11/12: 4.01%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 31.56%, min: 3.53%, max: 149.46%

    11/09/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 67, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 60000, Vol 446285, AvTrSz: 6661
    Min. Pr: 0.2490, Max Pr: 0.2624, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2516
    # Buys, Shares: 33 126425, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2545
    # Sells, Shares: 33 314860, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2505
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2501
    Buy:Sell 1:2.49 (28.3% "buys"), DlyShts 31790 (7.12%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 10.10%

    Starting with a comment I posted over the weekend seems reasonable.
    =======================================
    Here's a link to the comment and I copied it with one correction into here.

    John: Yes. Only 4,390 shares traded below $0.25 in two trades within 3:05 of each other. I think this was just a normal "overshoot". At $0.2490, they honored the descending support of our trading channel, as near as I can tell ($0.2493?), and recovered to >= $0.25 on all subsequent trades.

    As to the gravestone doji, Bulkowski says "They believe that it signals a bearish reversal. It does, but only 51% of the time. I call that random".

    Since we are already in a down-trend a bearish reversal is currently impossible! :-)) Thassa goot!

    His identification criteria says "Look for a candle with a tall upper shadow and little or no lower one. The opening and closing prices should be within pennies of each other". Well, that last part qualifies! LoL!

    First part could qualify, but "tall" would be quite subjective here as the close was almost exactly midway in the days range: close $0.2549 and mid-point $0.2557 ($0.2552 if we discount the two "overshoot" trades). Further, we have a close above the open, yielding a "white" or "green" candle, if considered in isolation. Our only bearish suggestion is that we did make a lower low and high and closed 1/100th penny lower than Thursday - hardly a strong bearish indication - at worst just a continuation of trend IMO.

    Looking at other stuff ...

    We have a "cupped" volume pattern and it's ending in a "spike" (albeit not a "strong" one) - often an indicator of end of trend. In Ks: 459, 239, 184, and 446. Looking on a one-year chart we see that volume spikes (even less-strong ones) do correlate quite well to end of trends, whether the trend was flat, up or down.

    Daily short sales are also starting to move up towards "normal", but a way to go yet. In Ks: 25.78, 10.00, 5.30, and 31.79.

    Note the shorts up 6x while volume was up 2.42x.

    I had mentioned the other day that my experimental-period (13) lower Bollinger was getting pushed and the longest run for that condition, on a one-year chart, was 16 days IIRC. We've done 15 days now and our low "pulled away". We need to see that continue though.

    The descending support I mentioned above originated at the low of 6/14 and has been tested 5 times now. All, including two overshoots (including today's maybe - hard to be sure), resulted in a leg up to eventually contact (and overshoot on the highs in one seven-day period) the falling resistance.

    Our resistance Friday sat at $0.31 AFAICT.

    Most of the oscillators I watch are now oversold and the stochastic does look to meet or cross up Monday if price and volume don't deteriorate severely.

    On another note, someone had PM'd me about "lock-up" shares, which I had totally forgotten about. If there were some from the Feb issuance, they could have started entering in August? Thoughts on if that might be the source of selling pressure?
    =======================================
    There's more to his reply but, in short, John's reply to that last question is he thought they were long gone.

    Looking at my experimental stuff, we can add daily short sales to items I believe are acting as they did approaching the August quarterly report. This especially apparent if you look at the 10-day average of the short sales. Although not as striking, there is also a fair amount of similarity in the buy:sell 10-day average behavior.

    The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" continues to suggest that John's assessment that the big sellers are gone is correct, if my thesis that big sellers trying to dump out are more likely to hit the bid and also cause elevated daily market-maker short sales.

    On my original inflection point calculations, the 5-day has a consistent record of calling a move up before it happens and then rolling over just before or at the same time the move up begins. But it was way too sensitive, even predicting the very small very short-term bump up 10/23 to 10/25, and two later calculation versions attempt to suppress that excess sensitivity. They suppressed the excess sensitivity, but I think need some more work yet. Anyway, the original now has the five-day rising. On that original, the rise seems to be consistently confirmed when a couple of the other periods curl up, not always in the expected sequence of the 10, then the 25, then ... and then the five-day rolls over about the time the price rise begins. It'll be interesting to see if this patterns holds and if the predictive ability that I thought I saw is really there.

    The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
    Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64% 139.27%
    Mon. 10/22: 194.20% 19.54% 25.53% 15.21% 15.17%
    Wed. 10/31: 62.24% 149.46% 39.90%
    Mon, 11/05: 30.92% 7.61% 6.98% 3.53% 10.10%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 35.50%, min: 3.53%, max: 149.46%

    11/8/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 33, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 32400, Vol 184350, AvTrSz: 5586
    Min. Pr: 0.2510, Max Pr: 0.2645, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2552
    # Buys, Shares: 12 34400, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2575
    # Sells, Shares: 21 149950, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2546
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:4.36 (18.7% "buys"), DlyShts 5300 (2.87%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 3.53%

    On the traditional TA front, our lows continue to honor the descending support line of the trading channel we re-entered. AFAICT, that's $0.251. RSI still just atop oversold at 30.07, down from yesterday's 30.16. MFI and stochastic in oversold and %K is curling up preparing to cross above the %D line. A near-term descending trend resistance will intersect the descending channel support in two days and we will have a break one way or the other I think - possibly before the intersection occurs. With (now) three instances of support demonstrated at $0.25 (but the third is current price level and support is not yet confirmed), there's a decent chance the break will be up. However, we know the current action doesn't conform to "decent" expectations and we don't know what or who is driving price action right now. So I'm not placing any bets.

    If our action is caused by active traders, or computers, that look at TA there's a chance that they see this as their entry point. If it's driven by MM activity, who can naked-short with impunity, I don't have any idea if they want price up or down from here. With the daily short sales continuing to fall off the cliff, percentage-wise and by volume, I have no guess as to what's in store.

    The only potential bright spots are the near-oversold and oversold conditions I've mentioned and the fact that my experimental 13-period lower Bollinger has now been pushed by price 14 days. Within this trading channel the longest period for this condition was 1 days (9/10-10/1) and was ended at these price levels and followed by a subsequent push up to the $0.32-$0.34 range for the highs 10/8-10/10/17.

    On my experimental charts front, average trade size remains around, but below, the averages and buy:sell percentage continues to deteriorate. That percentage is nearing an all-time (since Feb. When I started tracking) low, 6.4% on 4/10. All the averages are now dropping too, as would be expected now.

    The new inflection point calculations continue downward.

    The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff, which I proposed might indicate whether big sellers were present or not (and we don't know if this is valid, although the numbers seen in my instablog suggest it may be), continue to support John's feeling that big sellers were pretty much gone: Nov Avg: 39.73%, min: 3.53%, max: 149.46%. These figures continue to remain low at this time. Details in my instablog.

    The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
    Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64% 139.27%
    Mon. 10/22: 194.20% 19.54% 25.53% 15.21% 15.17%
    Wed. 10/31: 62.24% 149.46% 39.90%
    Mon, 11/05: 30.92% 7.61% 3.53%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 39.73%, min: 3.53%, max: 149.46%

    11/7/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 43, MinTrSz: 250, MaxTrSz: 17900, Vol 239275, AvTrSz: 5565
    Min. Pr: 0.2550, Max Pr: 0.2600, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2575
    # Buys, Shares: 18 95925, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2594
    # Sells, Shares: 25 143350, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2563
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.49 (4.01% "buys"), DlyShts 10000 (4.18%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 6.98%

    Talk about "narrow spread" or "price compression" - how does a $0.005 spread strike you? Let's add in some oddities. A pre-market trade, very unusual, of 5K went at $0.26. Daily shorts continue very low, especially considering the buy:sell ratio.

    On the traditional TA front, we have stayed inside the descending trading channel we re-entered on 10/17 and haven't yet hit the falling support, currently ~$0.25. But a setup for a bounce is now in place with the RSI sitting right atop oversold at 30.16 and MFI, Williams %R, and stochastic all oversold. As price compressed today, volume fell off. A bounce could happen today, but more likely we'll consolidate a day or two first.

    On my experimental stuff, we see average trade size has recovered to more "normal" levels, buy:sell may have bottomed and has started moving back towards normal, and volume has dropped back to below three of the averages.

    The new inflection point calculations have four still trending down and three below zero.

    The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff, which I suspect my indicate whether big sellers are in, continues at a low value. I think this does support John's thesis that they are primarily exhausted and, as I suspect and mentioned before, we have a new cadre of sellers that are different from the big dumpers of the past. It might even just be market-makers playing.

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 46.97%, min: 6.98%, max: 149.46%

    The rest of the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
    Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64% 139.27%
    Mon. 10/22: 194.20% 19.54% 25.53% 15.21% 15.17%
    Wed. 10/31: 62.24% 149.46% 39.90%
    Mon, 11/05: 30.92% 7.61% 6.98%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 46.97%, min: 6.98%, max: 149.46%

    11/6/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 65, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 53200, Vol 458734, AvTrSz: 7057
    Min. Pr: 0.2550, Max Pr: 0.2745, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2619
    # Buys, Shares: 31 119884, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2639
    # Sells, Shares: 34 338850, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2612
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.83 (26.1% "buys"), DlyShts 25782 (5.62%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 7.61%

    I'm really impressed today that we could see this of kind buy:sell and total volume with such a low absolute number of short sales. This suggests either a high percentage of inter-broker or intra-broker trades or market-makers being quite long.

    Regardless of that, I have to ask where the shares are coming from. Heavy selling at low and declining price suggests we have a big seller or two back. Can we assume it's someone like Special Situations, Manatuck Hill or Blackrock? Is it possible that many retail traders or investors are dumping out? Looking at the last few days short volumes (in thousands, 21.14, 30.99, 13.90, 33.24, and 73.58) I can't see a ton of shares flowing in. BTW, the VWAPs for those days were $0.2807, $0.2723, $0.2798, $0.2814, and $0.2708. Anyway, if the " Dly Sht % of 'sells" does provide any indication of large sellers dumping (via hitting the bid at a high rate), we can't see it in the percentages.

    Taking a look at my charts' short behavior, price and volume, this continues to make me think of the August approach to the quarterly report.

    The experimental inflection point calculations continue to weaken, with the 25-day period now joining the rush down. With the increased volume the last two days even the 100-day is now showing a start down.

    On the traditional TA front, everything says there is no up in sight yet. With the volume increasing a bit today as price weakened further it seems likely that we may see even weaker prices. Not knowing where the selling is coming from bother me.

    The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
    Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64% 139.27%
    Mon. 10/22: 194.20% 19.54% 25.53% 15.21% 15.17%
    Wed. 10/31: 62.24% 149.46% 39.90%
    Mon, 11/05: 30.92% 7.61%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 56.97%, min: 7.61%, max: 149.46%

    11/5/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 52, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 90000, Vol 413112, AvTrSz: 7944
    Min. Pr: 0.2651, Max Pr: 0.2800, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2708
    # Buys, Shares: 25 175175, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2711
    # Sells, Shares: 27 237937, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2706
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.36 (42.4% "buys"), DlyShts 73575 (17.81%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 30.92%

    Yesterday I said
    ====================================
    If volume remains low, the short sales percentage should at least remain in this area. With shares backing prior sell orders flowing to the market-makers being so few recently I wouldn't be surprised to see daily short sales continue to climb, percentage-wise, especially if any volume on stronger prices appears. I'm not expecting much of that ATM.
    ====================================
    Both right and wrong. Short sales more-than-doubled from 33.24K, but volume came in well above the averages of 220K, 336K, 350K, and 343K. In spite of that, our behavior is still emulating the lead up to the August quarterly report, IMO. Similar low-volume volatility leading into the report can be seen on the charts.

    I wish I'd seen those "stronger prices" along with the volume though.

    I shouldn't complain - at one point during the day the buy:sell was almost 1:9. I forgot to mention in my partial APC post that the buy:sell had improved from Friday's 1:2.17. This might be significant going forward.

    We got what I believe was a single trade of 100K (went as a block of 90K, $2720, and either a 10K block, $0.2720, or two smaller blocks of 1.2K and 8.8K @ $0.2721). This was a sell. Later had a couple other larger trades, 41.7K at $0.2699 and 50K at $0.27. These were "buys".

    These represented 46.4% of today's volume. They dragged the average trades size up to above the averages of 5865, 6405, 6371, and 6526.

    I don't know where the sells are coming from: the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" continues in the lower ranges seen since we thought the "big" sellers were becoming exhausted. I'm still suspicious that we're seeing the market-makers being much more active and this might be the cause. Considering the recent (over the last month or so?) increase larger market-makers (NITE, CDEL, e.g.) this may be a major factor. I can't think of other participants that can make money buying and selling frequently at these levels. Since the market markers get fees from the exchange for every trade they make, they can still make money even if the price spread is minimal.

    The price pattern is in a consolidation triangle and the candlestick made a "doji" today. Both of these say a change should be very near. The oscillators are all weaker than they were Friday. But with the volume"spike" today, we might get a move to the upside since we were trending down overall. But the volume"spike" isn't all that large, so I don't know if we can bank on it.

    With the VWAP remaining above $0.27, it is looking like we do have support in that area, suggesting Maya's triple bottom might hold and the foray in to the $0.265x price may have been an overshoot. However, we had more volume in the $0.26xx area then in the other recent excursions into that range.

    My experimental inflection point calculations are showing flat on the two short-term periods, five and ten day, while the twenty-five day has begun to roll over from it's upward bias. The 50-day is trying to join the party forming up around zero. All this suggests we can't make in educated guesses based on what they are doing now. If we had more experience, we might judge they are saying "flat".

    The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
    Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64% 139.27%
    Mon. 10/22: 194.20% 19.54% 25.53% 15.21% 15.17%
    Wed. 10/31: 62.24% 149.46% 39.90%
    Mon, 11/05: 30.92%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 73.43%, min: 30.92%, max: 149.46%

    11/2/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 22, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol 121685, AvTrSz: 5531
    Min. Pr: 0.2700, Max Pr: 0.2900, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2814
    # Buys, Shares: 11 38370, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2834
    # Sells, Shares: 11 83315, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2804
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.17 (31.5% "buys"), DlyShts 33240 (27.32%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 39.90%

    Daily short sales continue the expected behavior of rising, especially on low volume, towards "normal" and is now above the averages of 21.90%, 23.45%, 25.20% and 25.62%. These don't imply larger absolute numbers because the volume has been so low recently. If volume remains low, the short sales percentage should at least remain in this area. With shares backing prior sell orders flowing to the market-makers being so few recently I wouldn't be surprised to see daily short sales continue to climb, percentage-wise, especially if any volume on stronger prices appears. I'm not expecting much of that ATM.

    Although price action doesn't look "hale and hearty" ATM, consider it in light of recent volumes and price (low, high and VWAP) the prior three days: 0.2651 0.2905 0.2807; 0.2700 0.2800 0.2723; 0.2650 0.2900 0.2798. We're hanging in there.

    Buy:sell is flopping around the averages, today on the low side of the average percentages: 53%, 52%, 51% and 54%.

    Average trade size is still recovering from the recent depths: 4291, 6372, 3074. Size is trying to claw it's way back to the averages of 5900, 6317, 6314 and 6537.

    On the traditional TA front, everything is "status quo": consolidation pattern denoted by reducing volumes, narrow price spread, oscillators mostly in neutral areas with disagreement in their direction of movement.

    My new experimental inflection point calculations are collecting right around the zero-line, except for the 100-day which hasn't started to trend down yet. But if volume remains low and price stays steady the next five days or so it should start to drop as some much larger volumes and higher prices will be "falling out". None, from the shortest five-day to the longest, are suggesting lower prices, in aggregate. I say "in aggregate" because AFAICT they seem to "predict" most reliably when they act "in concert", except on the original version when the five-day often would lead and then go contrary. This behavior is not seen on the two newer versions.

    As a reminder, we don't know the value or reliability of these yet and I mention them only because they have been showing some promise and there may be folks that want to visit my instablog and assess for themselves.

    The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
    Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64% 139.27%
    Mon. 10/22: 194.20% 19.54% 25.53% 15.21% 15.17%
    Wed. 10/31: 62.24% 149.46% 39.90%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 94.68%, min: 39.90%, max: 149.46%

    11/1/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 21, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 64550, AvTrSz: 3074
    Min. Pr: 0.2650, Max Pr: 0.2900, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2798
    # Buys, Shares: 15 45250, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2824
    # Sells, Shares: 5 9300, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2699
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2775
    Buy:Sell 4.87:1 (70.1% "buys"), DlyShts 13900 (21.53%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 149.46%

    Pretty good day, but let's not get over-excited as we had no volume.

    Short sales continue it's usual convergence of the peaks and valleys and I'm thinking today will continue with a percentage-up move to somewhere in the 3x% area.

    Now I feel more certain we are essentially duplicating price behavior seen heading into the August quarterly report period. I think continuation of the revenues improvement is expected and if it appears a short-term bump is likely. It'll be interesting to see if it lasts longer this time. I think any positive surprise - sales or partnerships, ... - will have substantially greater impact this time around.

    Buy:sell percentage averages have a sustained positive divergence going on now (think of a MACD). I expect we'll stabilize in the positive area until the profit-takers show themselves in strength. Which reminds me, I wanted to mention the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff, which I usually avoid in the concentrator.

    John had suggested some time back that we were exhausting big sellers, but with the blunt instruments available depth of exhaustion and actual exhaustion period were uncertain. Sometime later, I conceived the theory that larger sellers would be more likely to hit the bid and the ratio of shorts (which are closely linked to sell orders IMO) to "sells" might be useful. I believe this is borne out now and supports John's contention. Here's an abbreviated snippet from my instablog.

    ==========================================
    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    ==========================================

    Note the trend up and then down in the percentages - both maximums and averages. If I could figure a way to associate buys with shorts sales going forward there may be some utility there as well. Maybe just present both percentages. I'll have to think on it.

    My new experimental inflection point calculations (all three versions) began giving early indication of a price move up somewhere around 10/23-10/24. If we'd had volume today, I be all giddy. But without volume, I'm still suspicious. I do have more confidence in the later two versions as additional factors are included and there's more to go yet, I think.

    On the traditional TA front, ignoring volume as it's been mentioned already, all the oscillators are curling upwards, although none are in bullish stance yet. A follow-though in continued price appreciation with increased volume would go a long way to confirming Maya's suggestion that the triple-bottom was in.

    The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
    Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64% 139.27%
    Mon. 10/22: 194.20% 19.54% 25.53% 15.21% 15.17%
    Wed. 10/31: 62.24% 149.46%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 149.46%, min: 149.46%, max: 149.46%

    10/31/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 39, MinTrSz: 393, MaxTrSz: 63100, Vol 248527, AvTrSz: 6372
    Min. Pr: 0.2700, Max Pr: 0.2800, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2723
    # Buys, Shares: 29 198734, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2726
    # Sells, Shares: 10 49793, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2708
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 3.99:1 (80.0% "buys"), DlyShts 30993 (12.47%)

    There were two AH trades, 2K at $0.271 and 8.9K at $0.270, that aren't included in the FINRA-reported data. If we add these two total FINRA-reported volume the short percentage moves from 13.4% to 12.47%. If we also add it to the short sales it moves to 16.86%. Although we believe Quercus is not in the market any longer, it seems worthwhile to consider the possibility they might be because we keep seeing selling pressure. It could be do to other players though. Anyway, 1/11th of the days volume, including the AH trades, would be ~22.6K. Depending on what trades near the end of the day we include, including the AH trades regardless, we can see 20.9K to 25.9K at prices of $0.270-$0.271 that might be some kind of market-maker balancing trades if Quercus or someone else selling ~10% of volume is in the market.

    First in the traditional TA area ...

    In the prior post (Friday, 10/26), while looking for positives, I commented "From this, it seems that we have good support at the $0.27 area now as both times we saw trading come right back into the $0.27xx+ and higher area. This can be seen by checking the VWAPs for those days - $0.2807 on 215K for 10/26 and $0.2873 on 598K for 10/2".

    So far, so good if you check today's narrow spread and the buy:sell in this price range. It's also encouraging that as the price today had a higher low and a lower high in a lower price range, we didn't see a big increase in volume, which would've suggested that downward momentum was developing.

    The low, which was below my experimental lower Bollinger (which is still dropping) Friday, managed to ride on it today rather than pushing below again. But I'm not taking heart yet - on Level 2 I see MAXM market-maker on the ask at $0.271 (08:43) and I expect that they, ATDF, maybe NITE, BTIG might do their usual jumping to the head of the line on the ask unless we see someone on the bid side start showing up with strength.

    Further, all the oscillators are showing weakness again. However, keep in mind the volume ("The Truth Teller") is not yet supportive of a downward momentum.

    Moving on to my experimental stuff ...

    Daily short sales percentage remains low, albeit climbing, continuing the apparent long-term reduction in volatility. Factoring the recent short sales counts (in thousands) and VWAPs, 137.20 ($0.2919), 35.25 ($0.2866), 30.50 ($0.2881), 16.12 ($0.2912), 21.14 ($0.2807), and 30.99 ($0.2723), it's apparent to me that the market-makers are taking advantage of falling price to do covering buys and releasing the incoming shares, which backed prior sell orders received, into the market. This increases their profit and also drives price lower.

    It will take strong buying to overcome this pressure. At some point the "covering buys" will become unattractive (when price spread is too narrow? Possibly as with yesterday?) and shorts will jump higher again and price will have the opportunity to improve. I'm hoping that yesterday's narrow spread has brought us to that point.

    Average trade sizes continue to consolidate with the highs and lows move semi-progressively towards the averages in the retail range, IMO.

    The new buy:sell inflection-point calculations (all three versions) are looking interesting. The longer-term numbers are moving rapidly from well above the zero value (which is expected in light of recent vs. Distant-past action) as the short-term ones have come from well-below the zero value to now be at or above that level. If my examination is correct, in the past when the three short-term ones all flip upwards together we get some price movement upwards.

    I'll stop here so I can post this before the open, hopefully.

    The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
    Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64% 139.27%
    Mon. 10/22: 194.20% 19.54% 25.53% 15.21% 15.17%
    Wed. 10/31: 62.24%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%

    10/26/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 50, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 35700, Vol 214540, AvTrSz: 4291
    Min. Pr: 0.2651, Max Pr: 0.2905, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2807
    # Buys, Shares: 27 75200, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2804
    # Sells, Shares: 23 139340, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2809
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.85 (35.1 "buys"), DlyShts 21142 (9.85%)

    Starting first with traditional TA stuff, all the oscillators I follow continue to weaken except the stochastic, which is trying to curl up. The readings though are mostly only at a neutral area and there's nothing in play I can see that suggests any strength towards the upside is developing. Our closing price is pretty much centered in the descending trading channel we reentered on 10/17. The range appears to be $0.25-$0.31 and we closed at $0.28.

    There is a barely rising trend line, very short-term, that might offer support at the $0.255 area if we should move that direction. It is as yet untested, having only the low of 10/1 as its origin and only one touch at the low of 10/22, $0.255.

    Our latest candlestick is a black candlestick that is not part of a pattern I can discern, giving no hints to direction - it's followed by pattern continuation 52% of the time, more or less random.

    I had mentioned in days past that if price didn't pull away from my experimental lower Bollinger, we would likely move down. We didn't and we did, after unsuccessfully trying to support the weak pull-away of Thursday.

    Right now, since price has weakened, it appears that the 50-day SMA (~$0.3021) has gone from flat to starting to weaken again. Prices exiting the back end of the calculation period are right around the $0.30 range and if we stay in this area below $0.30 the 50-day will continue to weaken.

    Trying to find some positives ...

    I see a potential short-term rising support that we can construct using the lows of 10/22, $0.255, and 10/26, $0.2651. To build any forecasts on that at this time, before any more days can be seen that might include higher lows, would be premature though.

    The price pattern and volume behavior does remind somewhat of last time we were coming into earnings reporting in August, after which we saw a nice move up from lows of $0.28 to highs of $0.33. Considering non-TA stuff, if the revenues continue to show improvement YoY, as they did last time, and we get any positive news from the reporting and CC, we could expect price to again show strong recovery.

    Mayascribe had suggested that we might be seeing the end of an Elliot Wave Theory fifth wave down. If his assessment is correct, this could be significant as, possibly after some consolidation ("extension" in EWT?), we should see motive waves up begin, wave one in this case.

    Moving now to my experimental charts ...

    It looks like average trade sizes are continuing to shed volatility, after I was concerned that it might be entering a trend to go lower. The 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages are 6788, 6609, 6464 and 6494 respectively. The buy:sell seems to be also vacillating around the "center" with "buy" averages of 51%, 49%, 51%, and 54% respectively for the same periods. Daily short sales, after a brief divergence from trend the first week of October, has returned to having highs and lows gravitating towards the averages, These trends are most easily seen on the charts.

    What can we say about price? It stinks and grows stinkier. Continuing to look for positive signs ...

    10/1 and 10/2 were at the end of our 18 days below $0.30. 10/1 had a VWAP of $0.2596. It appears that we may have exhausted available sellers at those low prices because 10/2 was much improved and the trades in the $0.26xx range that day and Friday, 10/26, had some strong similarities. Both were very few shares (6K or 2.8% of volume 10/26 vs. 10/2's ~24.4K or ~4.1% of volume). From this, it seems that we have good support at the $0.27 area now as both times we saw trading come right back into the $0.27xx+ and higher area. This can be seen by checking the VWAPs for those days - $0.2807 on 215K for 10/26 and $0.2873 on 598K for 10/2.

    My experimental inflection point calculations are showing no relief in sight yet. A couple of the periods had been trying to move up but, as I said a few days ago, did not get support from the other periods and the best I could offer was "keep an eye open". That's unchanged as only some possibilities are being suggested at the moment.

    The rest of the inflection points discussion and "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff is omitted from the concentrator.

    Our experience with the inflection points is quite new for now and I can't decide if what's shown there is indicative of further price deterioration or just price stabilization. The three longest-term periods are saying down but the five and ten-day lines have flattened out. My bias would be to give the two shorter periods, since they are more affected by recent activity, the nod, especially since they are in agreement. If they are, indeed, forecasting "what's next", or maybe more appropriately "what's not next", we could expect price to at least hold in this range. Keeping in mind that these metrics are volume-sensitive and we've been seeing reducing volume since the spike of the 17th, these two shorter periods may be showing the precursor to a pending reversal in trend towards up. If volume should return and the buy:sell shows even minimal improvement there might be a fairly quick change in these two indicators.

    Rehashing my prior thoughts on the daily short sales percentage ...
    ===============================================
    With the volume being so low today, a cursory glance at my experimental charts would suggest a higher short percentage. But if we factor in T+3 delivery, possible short covering buys, ... it might make sense. Looking at my experimental charts for the period of 10/8 - 10/16, we had somewhat similar lower trading volumes and low short percentages after a big short percentage spike. With our current volumes being generally slightly lower and our most recent short sales percentage spike lower, I don't think we'll see this low short sales percentage period last quite as long if we don't get some days of bigger trading volume quickly.
    ===============================================
    Those thoughts still hold AFAICT.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
    Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64% 139.27%
    Mon. 10/22: 194.20% 19.54% 25.53% 15.21% 15.17%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 86.19%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%

    10/25/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 21, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol 189057, AvTrSz: 9003
    Min. Pr: 0.2870, Max Pr: 0.3000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2912
    # Buys, Shares: 17 83077, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2963
    # Sells, Shares: 4 105980, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2872
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.28 (43.94% "buys"), DlyShts 16124 (8.53%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 15.21%

    I want to mention one outlier that was big enough to skew results in several areas, a 100K "sell" at $0.287, but which couldn't completely overcome some apparent bullishness at these price levels. I removed that trade and the change was absolutely ridiculous in its effect: think of a buy:sell around 16:1, the effect on VWAP, etc. There's enough data above for you to calculate anything you're interested in. Anyway, even with that trade notice that our "buys" improved from yesterdays 42.6% (1:1.35) and regardless of a drop in short sales percentage (low percentage with volume this low suggests market-makers had some incoming cheap shares to sell). Speaking of which ...

    I'm omitting the discussion of it in the APC as I suspect it has become a boring topic here. It's in my instablog though.

    Last thing regarding the 100K trade: without it our average trades size was around 4.4K, still low and right around yesterday's 4.6K. So the market-makers are apparently dealing with much smaller average order sizes, low volume and (as we observed today and many other days) significant spreads between the bid and ask for extended periods. If it wasn't for ATDF jumping in front all the time, we might have almost no volume at all. I guess we ought to be thankful they're in even if we hate what they do.

    My new inflection points stuff all weakened, except the 10-day which remains above 0 at 103.82. But without support from any of the other periods and no suggestion from any other source of anything but a sideways move at the moment, I wouldn't be making any moves here.

    Most other things are status quo: narrowing trading range, low volume, buy:sell hanging in the normal areas. Nothings really changed on the traditional TA front either.

    The short sales and "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff is omitted from the concentrator.

    With the volume being so low today, a cursory glance at my experimental charts would suggest a higher short percentage. But if we factor in T+3 delivery, possible short covering buys, ... it might make sense. Looking at my experimental charts for the period of 10/8 - 10/16, we had somewhat similar lower trading volumes and low short percentages after a big short percentage spike. With our current volumes being generally slightly lower and our most recent short sales percentage spike lower, I don't think we'll see this low short sales percentage period last quite as long if we don't get some days of bigger trading volume quickly.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
    Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64% 139.27%
    Mon. 10/22: 194.20% 19.54% 25.53% 15.21%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 89.93%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%

    10/24/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 45, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 11000, Vol 208128, AvTrSz: 4625
    Min. Pr: 0.2812, Max Pr: 0.3000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2881
    # Buys, Shares: 19 88650, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2898
    # Sells, Shares: 26 119478,VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2868
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.35 (42.6% "buys"), DlyShts 30500 (14.65%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 25.53%

    Daily shorts sales continues to do it's normal up and down with apparent loss of volatility in the long-term trend. Volume was down from yesterday about 33% and shorts were down only 4K, ~13.5%. I just think it's shorts doing covering buys and increasing their profits by selling shares backing prior sell orders when they flow in.

    There was little remarkable about today's price or volume - it continues behaving as it so often does with ATDF apparently sparking most moves down by being impatient and moving to the top of both the ask and bid lines. Iindelco mentioned the possibility that computers were doing the trading, which I had been considering for some days recently. It wouldn't surprise me if this was an arbitrage algorithm running on a computer somewhere - just too much predictability to be the normal mix of humans with different price points and considerations driving their decisions.

    On the traditional TA front, nothing has really changed. Price compression, falling volume, still pushing down on my experimental lower Bollinger and pushing up on the short-term rising resistance (11 days old now) and the 50-day SMA.

    Price formed a "spinning top" candlestick again - price is apparently getting ready to do something but the normal oscillators can't find agreement among themselves. DRich did mention that the MACD he follows suggests a move up in five days.

    On my experimental charts ...

    Average trade size continues to bounce a bit. The short-term trend may be moving towards smaller sizes, breaking the trend towards larger average sizes it had been in. It's had to tell for sure yet - it may be just volatility leaving this metric, as is happening in the daily short sales. It will bear watching though.

    Buy:sell is staying mostly right around the mid-range since the 10/17 944K trading day on 10/17, but VWAP flattened now, ceasing its slow creep down.

    On my new inflection point calculations, the 10 period has moved above 0, now sitting at +53.63, up from yesterday's (80.79). All but the five-day are moving up and the 50-period has crossed above the 100-period metric. Another day or two of this and I might be convinced they're telling us a move up is near.

    The following is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
    Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64% 139.27%
    Mon. 10/22: 194.20% 19.54% 25.53%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 94.08%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%

    10/23/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 41, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 71100, Vol 308459, AvTrSz: 7523
    Min. Pr: 0.2800, Max Pr: 0.2994, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2866
    # Buys, Shares: 24 128059, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2906
    # Sells, Shares: 17 180400, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2838
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.41 (41.52% "buys"), DlyShts 35253 (41.52%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 19.54%

    Today started off pretty much normal, after 15 minutes of no trades, with some early low-volume price weakness in the subsequent 4 trades over 20 minutes that totaled 18.6K shares with a VWAP of $0.2848. Then trading went at $0.29 or higher, after another 52 minutes of no trades, through 14:00 on 19 trades totaling 112,153 shares at a VWAP of $0.2914.

    Then, after 47 minutes of no trades, the bottom fell out as 4 trades totaling 100K went off at VWAP of $0.2809 in 57 seconds. We did recover a little bit, but on little volume and the improvement could not be maintained as the usual suspects began jostling at the sell window. We managed to trade another ~77.7K at a VWAP of $0.2873.

    Frankly, I was surprised that the buy:sell didn't end up worse than it did. DRich mentioned in a comment he thought someone with a larger position was trying to back away, and he sure looks right today. Just a few minutes after he mentioned that, those 100K shares went off.

    There is a possible brighter side though. Price stayed far away from $0.25xx. We made a candlestick called a "spinning top", which suggests a change in trend may appear. Since we have been in a very short-term down trend, this suggests a move up might be at hand. This is not negated by volume (notice I didn't say "is supported by ..."). The volume is essentially flat from yesterday, 314K vs. Today's 308K. We may be just seeing the effects of the price trying to move through that short term line I started, now 10 days old, that was short-term supportive and is now resistance.

    I think if tomorrow price doesn't move off that experimental lower Bollinger I mentioned yesterday, we might see further weakness. None of the other TA oscillators I watch are suggesting anything definitive: some slightly bullish, some showing weakness and some just plain don't care yet.

    On my experimental stuff, I note again that we had a large drop in the daily short sales accompanying a weakness in price. We moved from 43.6% yesterday to 11.4% today and VWAP moved from $0.2919 to $0.2866 today. My thought is that we saw incoming shares with a low-cost basis to market-makers sold into the market that helped add to downward pressure. This is suggested because on a day with essentially the same volume as yesterday and a similar price range (VWAPS of $0.2919 and $0.2866) the shorts were so much lower (~137K vs. ~35K).

    Our average trades size has recovered to normal from its extremely low point of 3734 on 10/19. This leads me into ...

    On 10/19 I included "... last time we had this combination of a short-sales spike followed by high and then reducing volume and short-sales bottoming and then trending higher (check my charts for the 6/4-6/25 period) with trade size falling way below the long-term trend in a day, we had a nice little bump up ...". I mention it only to say let's keep an eye out to see if over the next few days the patterns emulate that 6/4-6/25 period. If the pattern doesn't get broken, we might challenge the mid-$0.30xx range again over the next week or two. I hope we develop a bit faster this time since we think our really large sellers are out of the game now and we expected a behavioral change subsequent to their supposed exit.

    I just want to mention the new inflection point calculations long enough to say that the 100K sell quashed the coordinated up moves that were just beginning. Prior to the 100K sell, the 10-day had crossed above zero and made +3.11, IIRC, and after it was down below zero again at (94.xx) IIRC.

    As I mentioned, they looked "discordant" to me and I wasn't ready to suggest anything other than careful observation. I'm still in that camp at this time.

    The following is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
    Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64% 139.27%
    Mon. 10/22: 194.20% 19.54%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 98.12%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%

    10/22/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 48, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 314476, AvTrSz: 6552
    Min. Pr: 0.2550, Max Pr: 0.3000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2919
    # Buys, Shares: 32 243828, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2952
    # Sells, Shares: 16 70648, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2803
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 3.45:1 (77.5% "buys"), DlyShts 137200 (43.63%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 194.20%

    The most notable thing today was the odd opening and an odd trade later in the day. At the open, 1,980 shares traded at $0.255 in the first two trades in the first 15 seconds. In the next 43 seconds 4 trades totaling 14K went at prices between $0.28 and $0.294, the latter being the end of that run. At 15:41:35 there was apparently another trade at $0.255 of 3K. But as I was writing this up I saw that ADVFN reported it as a "prior ref" trade.

    Anyway, with only three reported transactions at that price, I think it's worth seeing what things look like without them. Average trade size bumps up a bit to 6,522, VWAP moves to $0.2945 and buy:sell would move to 4.91:1 (83.1% "buys").

    In a more traditional TA view ...

    An interesting, to me, fact about this odd-ball trade was that it went exactly, AFAICT, to the falling resistance of the trading channel we re-entered last Thursday and bounced immediately back to the $0.29xx range, with only one other lower trade of 3,800 shares at $0.2800 in that opening salvo.

    Another interesting fact is that we topped out right at that new short-term rising trend, now 9 days long, which was support and now represents short-term resistance.

    Because we came out of a short three-day move down in which we saw volume plummet in a classic volume bottoming pattern and then saw volume come back strong today on an up move (albeit quite small), I believe we have an excellent chance to see price move above that short-term line quite quickly - back into the $0.30+ area. This is bolstered by the fact that we closed above my experimental 13-period lower Bollinger band, currently $0.2903. This fits in with what I mentioned previously about if it moves off that in a couple of days it has proven positive in the past. It's not "off" it yet as I want to see the lows stay at or above it.

    My experimental upper Bollinger is at $0.3303. Some surprise, huh?

    As could be expected in such a short view, the various oscillators are mixed ATM and I would read them as more or less neutral for now.

    In my experimental stuff ...

    Volume and daily short sales have begun recovering already, suggesting we are going to move into normal trading behavior again. I already mentioned the trading sizes are recovering and are right back at three of my four averages and the buy:sell displayed good strength today.

    My new inflection point calculations now have four of the five calculations curling upward in concert. Only the five day is going against the grain, but this seems normal in that in past cases where we saw early signal of bullishness from these the five-day signaled early, which it did this time too, and then flipped down as the others flipped up in all the prior cases.

    I'll iterate that the most reliable indications of change come when several show a similar behavioral change in close proximity to each other, often with a non-sequential progression. We have that now but I encourage all to look for themselves - they are very new and I don't have confidence yet in either my interpretation of them or their reliability. One difference I note is that in the past cases the various lines where much closer to each other and had generally longer trends in the same direction. Right now we are coming out of a visually "discordant" period.

    This makes me say I wouldn't place much weight on them yet. But for me, they are worth considering and watching to see what results ensue.

    The following is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
    Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64% 139.27%
    Mon. 10/22: 194.20%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 103.03%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%

    10/19/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 31, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 115753, AvTrSz: 3734
    Min. Pr: 0.2901, Max Pr: 0.3000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2962
    # Buys, Shares: 22 77913, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2980
    # Sells, Shares: 9 37840, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2926
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.06:1 (67.3% "buys"), DlyShts 52700 (45.53%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 139.27%

    As expected, the short sales percentage increased. In all honesty, I had predicted this based on past behavior of the shorts in isolation and then added in the expectation of falling volume. All this was based on my (possibly wishful?) expectation that our recent and current high-volume foray to the $0.29xx lows might be just an "overshoot" as the last of the "flippers" (my best guess) from our 18 days below $0.30 got out in a hurry in fear that they might miss all the profit potential.

    Will it be just an "overshoot"? Hard to say, but the two days of lowering volume while VWAP movement was quite small ($0.3004 & $0.2962) subsequent to the ~944K "sell off" 10/17, and the buy:sell remaining relatively strong in the face of severe selling pressure and then recovering (five consecutive days' approximate volume and "buy" percentages: 375K 56.5%, 310K 49.9%, 944K 52.8%, 564K 40.9%, and 116K 67.3%) would be suggestive of "overshoot". Add in that four times in the past $0.30 has generally demonstrated support (although it failed miserably to support anything in the 9/10 - 10/5 period).

    So is there anything that either supports or negates the possibility it's just an "overshoot"?

    On the traditional TA front, yes. The first is a positive divergence of RSI. Last time we had prices in the current range (9/10 - 9/17) before the step down to the lows of 9/28 and 10/1 when we hit $0.25xx, RSI average over that period was ~37. The last two days have been ~46.4 and ~42.6 - the former higher than the highest in that prior period and the latter just below the high then , ~47. The prior period's low was ~32. A similar divergence is seen vs. an even earlier period in this range, 8/2 - 8/22, which had RSI ranges similar to those mentioned, although I've not bothered to calculate the average. Some folks give this divergence a fair amount of weight - I'm unsure how much to give it, especially short-term.

    I also note that only one day after the foray into the $0.25xx area we had highs >= to $0.30, a very quick recovery. And we now have 14 consecutive days with highs of $0.30 or greater (we hit $0.34 one day - the day that had the high-volume sell-off) even with the apparent selling pressure with volume (~944K) noted on 10/17. I think the sell-off on a day we hit the $0.34 reinforces my thoughts that "flippers" from the 18 days below $0.30 took their profits and could be exhausted now.

    Trade volume for the 18 days and subsequent to that period are 7319.41K and 4399.36K respectively. Is it safe to assume that the remainder are either "strong hands" or awaiting a much higher price to take profit? I can't say. But we know we've now traded about 60% of that 18-day volume. You might want to apply your own best guesstimates here.

    My experimentally-short Bollinger Bands (13 periods instead of the normal 20) show the bottom one rising rapidly and our current low is "pushing" on it. My observation with these experimental settings is that price "bounces" off this bottom level within roughly 4 days, usually, at the most. If it doesn't we tend to go lower. So if we see a bounce up in the next day or two, the prognosis is pretty good.

    That new short-term rising support I mentioned the other day is now at ~$0.30 (with magnifier, seems to be $0.2997) and if we are in an "overshoot" we should move right back above it in just a day or two.

    On my experimental charts front ...

    With the low volume today we had a big fall-off in average trade size. Market-makers having to work harder to make trades is my guess as to the cause. Anyway, last time we had this combination of a short-sales spike followed by high and then reducing volume and short-sales bottoming and then trending higher (check my charts for the 6/4-6/25 period) with trade size falling way below the long-term trend in a day, we had a nice little bump up from 6/14's $0.30 low and VWAP that "flattened" out in the VWAP area of $0.34/$0.35 for three weeks ... before continuing the down trend. A difference to be considered ...

    Are our "big sellers" really gone? If so, we might not "top out" as before and then trend down. What we might see, and what I hope for, is the continued "grind" behavior that is symptomatic of a "healthier" market with a normal mixture of investors and traders actively working their portfolios.

    One thing I'm certain of - if we don't spend an extended period below $0.30 again any short-term traders will be looking to sell at higher prices if they start buying in quantity.

    The following is omitted from the concentrator.

    On my new inflection point calculations I'll only say a couple things. The most reliable indications of change come when several show a similar behavioral change in close proximity to each other, often with a non-sequential progression. We don't have that now. We did have that in four of the five metrics beginning 10/1, right at the start of the rise, with an early indication given by the five-day that it might be coming. We also had three of the five signal the approaching drop starting as early as 10/8 and that was apparently confirmed (in retrospect) 10/10.

    This led the recent high-volume move lower by about a week. Visual interpretation of these signs is not yet easy with so little history in hand. I will continue to consider them only as a learning tool, with some potential utility, for the moment.

    The current situation respecting those is an early indication of a possible rise in the offing, suggested by the 5-day. But that thing is really "noisy" and often goes opposite the others just as they are confirming an approaching move! It's going to be interesting to see what these metrics, and price, do going forward and what correlation appears, if any.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
    Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64% 139.27%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 96.95%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%

    10/18/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 68, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 81250 Vol 563893, AvTrSz: 8293
    Min. Pr: 0.2900, Max Pr: 0.3139, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3004
    # Buys, Shares: 45 230743, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2996
    # Sells, Shares: 23 333150, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3009
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.44 (40.92% "buys"), DlyShts 135400 (24%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 40.64%

    A small AH trade of 543 shares at $0.3019 is not included in the FINRA data. Adding this to the day's volume moves the short percentage to 24% from 24. 03%. If we add it to shorts too, the percentage becomes 24.11%.

    The big deal today was the early-morning action pushing price as low as $0.29. Reference the comment copied below ...

    Buy:sell made a very nice recovery to more normal range after the market-makers completed their dirty deeds. Notice that the first push down might have allowed them to cover short sales for yesterday (~300.5K) at a near-2 cent profit and by the end of the mornings dealings (11:33) they could cover the last three day's shorts (~398K) at an aggregate VWAP of $0.3181 might have a profit margin around ~$0.014.

    That does not include fees from the exchanges for the trades.

    Last thing on short percentages: usual bouncing and today happened to finish quite near the long-term averages and the rising trend line: 24%, 21.02%, 23.60%, and 26.99% for my usual 10, 25, 50 and 100-day periods. I'll iterate that in the recent past the huge percentage spikes have appeared after high-volume days, such as yesterday's. I can't say the pattern will repeat (maybe the big sellers really are out and the patterns will change?) but I won't be surprised if we see it Friday or Monday.

    Here's the APC comments from earlier today. After them, the normal daily commentary appears.
    =============================================================
    seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion...

    (AXPW): notes on the early action (through 11:33).

    Yesterday's short volume 300576, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3219.

    09:30 - 11:11 min $0.2995, max $0.3139, VWAP $0.3027, volume 307,950 shares traded, AvTrSz: 17500, and 21 trades had been done with a buy:sell of 1:13.59 (5.7% "buys").

    So, potentially, all of yesterday's short sales could have been covered at a near 2 cents profit. And all this likely induced some additional "panic" selling.

    Immediately thereafter, a few trades went at $0.30. And then the pressure continued, but the buying improved big-time - my guess MMs taking advantage in an "accumulation phase".

    Through 11:24, min $0.2955, max $0.3139, 30 trades VWAP $0.3023, average trade size 10,750, buy:sell 1:5.41 (15.6% "buys"). Note the big buy:sell improvement.

    Through 11:33 min. $0.2900, max $0.3139, VWAP $0.301, volume 394K, average trade size 6,355, 37 trades with buy:sell 1:4.13 (19.5% "buys"). Note the buy:sell continues to improve.

    Total short sales last three days ~397.88.

    Trading then went dead. MMs accomplished their goals.

    Bid/ask currently TEJS 5K $0.2905, BTIG ask 5K $0.295.

    =============================================================

    No comment on volume - need to let it settle out a day or two. Shorts have been touched on above.

    The last two days have been sufficient to weaken both the 10-day and 25-day buy:sell ratio averages. This seems bearish when I look back over my experimental charts. Recent history has price falling when this condition exists.

    Average trade size continues to move to the higher ranges - trending above the averages and the long-term trend line. This is in conflict with the bearishness of the buy:sell. Is the apparent conflict just an effect of the last (hopefully!) "flippers" that bought during the 18 days under $0.30 exiting or an indication that the market-makers are in "accumulation mode" building a larger sale block for a good customer? Last time we had this particular combination (10 and 25 buy:sell averages starting a decline while average trade size strengthened) in mid-to-late March our price went from around $0.38 to $0.46 or so around 4/18. It took about a month though.

    I'm not going to discuss the inflection point calculations except to encourage you to look at them. As with everything using different periods, there's mixed signals. Some suggested this price weakness might be coming, others were still suggesting this would not happen yet ... and it may work out, after we understand enough, that relationship among the periods to each other is significant.

    On the traditional TA front, the 10/16 volatility I mentioned that suggested a change was in the works seems prescient ATM. We got as high as $0.34 yesterday (Wed.) and got as low as $0.29 today. Today closed barely below the 50-day SMA ($0.3035) and just above a very short-term rising support (~$0.30, which also happens to be a prior price-point support). I had added it Wednesday and it now spans only 7 days, including today.

    Volume dropped off today but I think it has more to go before we can start looking for a rise in price to appear on the horizon.

    The $0.33 resistance I was worried about has apparently won this round as we are, ATM, back in the descending channel after nine days of trying to move on above it. Couldn't get the job done. It's now at ~$0.315 and we stayed under it today.

    So the battle now becomes which is stronger - the falling longer-term resistance or the prior $0.30 support and short-term rising support.

    The following is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
    Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 93.92%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%

    10/17/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 111, MinTrSz: 140, MaxTrSz: 74250, Vol 944468, AvTrSz: 8509
    Min. Pr: 0.3100, Max Pr: 0.3400, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3219
    # Buys, Shares: 64 499004, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3253
    # Sells, Shares: 45 420464, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3175
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 25000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3280
    Buy:Sell 1.19:1 (52.8% "buys"), DlyShts 300576 (31.8%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 71.49%

    In a comment here seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion... I wondered if a market-maker had gotten caught out of position by the early strong price rise and volume on the buying (buy:sell of 4.14:1, 259,556 vs. 62,500, ~80.5% "buys", VWAP $0.3332). I surmised that they then moved price down to get to a more market-neutral position: "... move price to make both additional shorting (both drive price lower and bring his market position closer to market at the time) and "covering buys" possible.

    *If* that is what happened, it worked well. From 12:37 through 13:05, VWAP was $0.3132, well below the $0.3332 VWAP seen through 11:15. 157K shares traded during this period, a bit less than half the 347K through 11:15". Then the intra-day statistics through 13:05 EDT showed things had moved to a more balanced stance.

    I expected a high short sales percentage, possibly above 60%, but it came in ultimately well below that, although in both quantity and percentage it was a hefty move: as detailed in this comment: seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion....

    In response to Bang's comment that MACD might be indicating a stumble, I pointed out that many positive indicators were in play here seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion....

    One thing I want to mention briefly: in the recent past short sales spikes have come after high-volume days. I've not yet been able to figure what this means, but have some working theories around MMs pushing price lower to do covering buys at lower prices, relatively few shares backing sell orders prior to the high-volume flowing in, ... but there's absolutely nothing I can examine so far and reach any even tentative conclusion as to the reason.

    Not much to add other than maybe yesterday's high price early got the rest of the folks who are traders and bought during that 18 days below $0.30 out of the market. Can't know, but with 8 days of trying to break above both $0.33 and the descending resistance line (currently ~$0.316 AFAICT) of our falling trading channel, on aggregate volume of ~578.5K, there's at least a reason to be hopeful. This might let us finally break up (after the market-makers take care of themselves?) and away from them and the 50-day SMA (currently $0.3037 and flat and getting ready to rise).

    The following is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
    Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 98.02%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%

    10/16/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partially copied from instablog.
    # Trds: 50, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 56500, Vol 309537, AvTrSz: 6191
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3300, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3111
    # Buys, Shares: 37 154437, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3163
    # Sells, Shares: 13 155100, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3058
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.004 (49.9% "buys" rounding error), DlyShts 26508 (8.6%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 17.09%

    Daily short sales continue their typical bounce along at low percentage after a big spike (10/3-10/5) and we should see a move up begin shortly.

    There was apparently some effect on price when the (AONE) bankruptcy became common knowledge as I posted in a comment at 11:32: "Our little flood of risk-averse folks did 6 trades in less than one minute of 131.5K shares taking pps from $0.32 to $0.305". This was from 10:48:11 to 10:49:03. But we still looked pretty good at 11:46 IMO, seen here seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion... and we did end up finishing near the high, closing at $0.3299 with a push up in the last few minutes. Volume during the push could have been better, but let's not look a gift-horse in the mouth, shall we not?

    We did have a slight dip in volume on an up day and we're still riding predominately above the 50-day SMA, which is just a few days from starting to rise if we stay around or above this price area, as some older lower prices begin to fall out of scope.

    All the traditional oscillators, except ADX and related, have moved into bullish stances now and, I'm finally pleased to say, we have finally closed above the falling former resistance (~$0.318?) of our descending trading channel. We've been trying to get away from that for six days. If we confirm it with a small rise in volume and close above again tomorrow, that's a positive.

    On my experimental charts, the intra-day high has been above the falling 100-day SMA for seven straight days. The VWAP 10-day average has crossed above both the 25 and 50-day SMAs.

    On my new inflection point calculations, the 5 and 10-day points are a bit weaker, but not to a degree worth trying to assign any change in what's being indicated.

    The following is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
    Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 100.23%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%

    10/15/2012: AXPW EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 41, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 375477, AvTrSz: 9158
    Min. Pr: 0.3100, Max Pr: 0.3250, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3146
    # Buys, Shares: 22 212040, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3158
    # Sells, Shares: 18 160687, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3130
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 2750, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3100
    Buy:Sell 1.32:1 (56.5% "buys"), DlyShts 70800 (18.9%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 44.06%

    In summary, we had a late-day surge begin after 15:00 in price and volume after all day of being in the doldrums. It was very low volume and prices stayed in the $0.31-$0.3051 range with a VWAP of $0.3112 on volume of 175,477. From 15:00 on the volume more than doubled and we gained substantially on the VWAP.

    Our daily short sales continue movement towards a more normal percentage, suggesting the T+3 thought laid out in my prior instablog has some validity.

    Our close, $0.3199, was above the 100-day VWAP of $0.3183. The combination of rising volume, close higher than open, higher low, high same as yesterday's, and continued price-push against the falling resistance (as near as I can tell, ~$0.3195) suggests we may shortly leave consolidation and indications are that a move towards $0.33 is the most likely move.

    Looking at the inflection point calculations on the chart, none are suggesting a down move at this time. Rather, a couple that had small negative divergences developing have flattened out. A couple have resumed an upward slope.

    The following is omitted from the concentrator.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
    Mon. 10/15: 44.06%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 107.79%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%

    Disclosure: I am long AXPW.

    Stocks: AXPW
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Comments (67)
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  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1290) | Send Message
     
    so what i am looking for is points when values shift from positive to negative.

     

    on Aug 14 the 25 day crossed positive (suggesting buyer strength) joining the 50 day on the positive side (50 day flipped 7/5 and undulated a couple of times near 0 point), followed by an Aug 15th 10 day cross into the positive (further strength to the buyer). then on Aug 16th the 100 day crossed into the positive for the first time ever. that 3 day crossing suggests a big sea change imo, but it's the 10 day that seem the most predictive of nearer term stock pricing.

     

    with the 25 day negative, we are probably consolidating. i want it to turn positive before i'd expect a rally higher. also have to watch 10 day for weakness.

     

    10 day likely approaches 0 from the + side while 25 nears 0 from the negative. i wonder if the slope (rate of change) can help us figure out if 10 day will break through into negative or if 25 will break positive...

     

    just not sure how useful 5 day is, but we don't have enough data to eliminate anything yet.
    14 Oct 2012, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Mathieu: "... i wonder if the slope (rate of change) can help us figure out if 10 day will break through into negative or if 25 will break positive..."

     

    Great minds ... My second thoughts, while looking for even a slightly longer advanced signal, was that some combo of rate of change on one or more periods might be just the ticket.

     

    If we can spot some such correlation among the various periods visually, we might be able to put that into formulas that lengthen the lead-time we get. It might be (slightly?) less reliable but might allow identification of some following confirmation indicator.

     

    What periods to use was open in mind thoughts.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Oct 2012, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4848) | Send Message
     
    Running FF on windows XT system a right-click, "open in new tab" sequence opened the image in a new tab okay, but the image did not scroll. However, a right-click, "view image" displayed a larger version of the charts in the same window with the cursor appearing as a plus sign inside a circle. Left-clicking on the image opened a new tab containing an enlarged, scrollable image.

     

    I can say nothing in the charts really leaped out to me on my first time through, but I have spent very little time on stock price/volume technical analysis so my current perception(s) probably have limited value to others and it will take me a while to absorb all the info presented. On the question of evaluation periods, I wonder whether there is any particular strength in confining one's self to looking only at multiples of trading weeks (5 days and multiples thereof).
    14 Oct 2012, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » D-inv: I also run FF. Right-click works as you say, but then the cursor inside the image, for me, becomes a magnifying glass when I position it on the image. A Left-click then magnifies it and the scroll bar appears, allowing scrolling.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Oct 2012, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    , contributor
    Comments (2109) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    Love your work. And I am a sucker for TA charts. But I look at these and ask. What does it show me that a long term daily chart does not?

     

    I am looking at when to buy. What do you think. From a TA perspective. Should I buy?
    14 Oct 2012, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1290) | Send Message
     
    well, firt off the thing doesn't measure price. it only considers buying and selling pressure. so when you see the #s go positive, it means more people are hitting the ask price. this has predicted price movement up an ddown ahead of the price. right now, we are in uncharted territory with the hundred day finally turning positive. i would think we consolidate until 25 day (blue) gets positive for 2 days in a row.
    14 Oct 2012, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Futurist: reinforcing what Mathieu said ...

     

    The buy:sell is a "finer grained" look into what traditional TA purports to show historically. The use of "buy:sell" inflection points calculation should show change in sentiment earlier than traditional TA.

     

    One reason is that the buying pressure (or selling pressure) could or should change before it shows up in price.

     

    The easy example of this potential can be seen if you look at the 10-day inflection point line between 2/27 and 3/5. Look at price action for that same period. Then watch both moving forward.

     

    Price doesn't really start to respond until after 3/15.

     

    Note that volume starts to respond after 3/12, over a week later than the 10-day inflection suggests a price rise.

     

    Note also that price spread increasing, one of the traditional TA indicators that a change may be in the works, also doesn't come in until after 3/12, lagging the inflection point by over a week.

     

    Fast-forward to around 4/23-4 and note that 3 of the inflection points flip to a negative *slope* more than a week before a sustained down trend in price begins. Further, the 5-day shows the beginning of reduced buying pressure 4/3 even though price initially continues to behave as if there's a lot of upside pressure.

     

    Another case around 6/4 shows the five-day suggesting weakness starting just before 5/21 and the other three seem to confirm by going from a decidedly upward bias to flattening 5/29-6/4 while the big price move down doesn't begin to exhibit until 6/8.

     

    Of course, there's lots of uncertainty right now as no refinement of periods used, correlations, rate of change, ... has yet been considered. Exactly what we might use and when is the purpose of this instablog.

     

    I think if you take the time to look in detail, you might find some things that seem to have potential.

     

    Or maybe not.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Oct 2012, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4848) | Send Message
     
    HTL, I think I may see suggestions of a 10-day inflection point lead indication of VWAP change in direction but I find it a bit hard to follow VWAP on its chart (couldn't follow on the display so printed the chart on a single page and trying to read that).

     

    Could you try rescaling VWAP or 10-day inflection and plotting both on the same chart?
    14 Oct 2012, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » D-inv: Certainly possible. But since that takes more work, and I am getting a bit stretched, try viewing on-screen in magnified mode and let me know if you think we need to do something.

     

    I know and agree that some simplification of the charts will be benificial but would like to avoid doing this until we have nailed down some agreed-upon parameters - which periods, should we use rate of change considerations, ...

     

    HardToLove
    15 Oct 2012, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1290) | Send Message
     
    D-inv, it is hard to read. save image and see if you can invert the background color. that might make it easier to see.
    15 Oct 2012, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Mathieu: I never thought of that! If y'all get a good background, let me know and I'll try and emulate that.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Oct 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4848) | Send Message
     
    Mathieu, your suggestion prompted a learning experience. In the words of my 28 month old granddaughter - I DID IT (reverse the background color)! Now to play with the color scheme a bit.
    15 Oct 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4848) | Send Message
     
    Returning to the task of trying different background colors I find the steps I took before produce different results. I can invert the background color but seem unable to change the background color otherwise.

     

    I fairly doubt that I will be able to make any positive contribution to the efforts here but will try again from time to time.
    15 Oct 2012, 09:45 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Just wanted to thank everyone who is taking the time. I know this draws from time you need for other things.

     

    having the additional eyes and brains looking at this stuff should help speed the proof of usefulness or lack of usefulness. And if there is usefulness, the refinement and distillation process should go faster.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Oct 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1290) | Send Message
     
    10 day gonna hold?
    18 Oct 2012, 01:28 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Mathieu: I don't know - haven't looked at what's in the 10-day window. Regardless, the five-day has gone from flat to curling up and if the buy:sell times volume is strong enough to the buy side, I think the 10-day should flatten out.

     

    OK. Looking at the chart for the buy:sell daily, were going to be dropping some high buy percentages out of the 10-day window. That's going to weaken the 10-day unless we come with high buy percentages with "decent" volume over the next few days.

     

    But we don't know yet if a single period really indicates near, medium or long-term moves. The five-day is above zero and rising, the 25-day is rising, the 50 and 100 are both over zero and flattened.

     

    Looking further back on the chart and matching to price and buy:sell, we generally saw confirmation by multiple inflection point changes and the 5-day often, but not always led. The 25-day will continue to strengthen for a few more days, if we don't get any major buy:sell weakness now, and will likely cross above zero around the time the 10-day goes below, if it does.

     

    With VWAP above the 100-day SMA and the highs above it for 8 days now, I don't think we can make a call on a single inflection point line here. And average trade sizes continues its strong up trend.

     

    I'll have a new chart and commentary up in an hour or so and we'll be able to see what I described more clearly.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Oct 2012, 07:13 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    HardToLove:

     

    I do not know almost anything about technical analysis, but I congratulate you for your work and continue to learn from you.

     

    Have a good day-Muchas gracias mi amigo.
    Carlos.
    18 Oct 2012, 07:38 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (UQM): "UQM-Powered Proterra Transit Bus Passes Rigorous FTA New Model Bus Testing Program"

     

    "Proterra EcoRide™ BE35 is the first heavy-duty electric bus to pass FTA Altoona bus testing "

     

    "The program includes a series of tests to simulate a 12-year/500,000 mile service life that encompasses safety, structural integrity and durability, reliability, performance, maintainability, noise and fuel economy.".

     

    More details http://bit.ly/V9TX6B

     

    HardToLove
    18 Oct 2012, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1290) | Send Message
     
    next week we resume move upward imo. i just wonder how long trading around 33 cents is going to happen. with 32 cents becoming a bigger TA number we probably see more strength into MM 33/34 sells. its gonna be a big fight there.
    21 Oct 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » If my guess that most of those that bought during that 18 days under $0.30 that are "flipping" are done now, $0.33 fight should be a lot shorter than the period we just went though - 11 of 12 days VWAP >= $0.30 with 7 days of highs >= $0.3250.

     

    Enough challenges and volume repeatedly around those price levels should eventually exhaust the sellers ... *if* our big sellers are really gone now.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Oct 2012, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1290) | Send Message
     
    looks like the 10 day is crossing back into the + side. that is bullish as i read it. i don't really care about slope except as it might predict cross over of other intervals.
    23 Oct 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Mathieu: I don't care much about the slope but I'm leaning heavily towards "concurrence" between the periods, except that the 5-day looks to often be a contrary indicator when the others are in agreement. It leads them all and then when they begin to agree with each other, the 5-day often goes opposite. I wonder if this might relate to the strength of movement.

     

    For me the ideal pattern can be seen around 8/13-8/20 where all said "Fly me to the moon" and once it started flying the 5-day said "Uh, I'm not so sure about this".

     

    But the other four said "Screw you - we've lifted off"! I also note that the 25-day led the 10-day there. In other cases the 10-day led.

     

    Also attractive to me was that it didn't matter whether above or below 0 - it was the change in direction and then the rates of change for all the periods that caught my eye.

     

    I also liked their congruence, something missing in the current period. I don't know how significant all this is yet - experimenting is fun learning.

     

    Once we visually see a *consistnet* repeated pattern we might be able to make a formula that gives buy, sell and (maybe?) hold signals. That would be pretty neat.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Oct 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1290) | Send Message
     
    the five is going to go negative slope anytime prices consolidate 'cause it only considers 5 days of data. congruence just means bullish pattern over each period. once the longer periods flip they should remain on the positive side of zero longer than the ten day. the fact that the 25 day is lagging the 10 day is not negative and i'd expect it to break positive and stay positive at least as long as the ten day.
    23 Oct 2012, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As to the relative "lengths" of the periods, yes. But since they are produced with volume as one of the factors, we won't see the consistency of, say, an SMA. And I think the relative volumes are important in assessing if indicators are strong or not. Since the formula incorporates volume over the periods, I think we'll see surprises that are not common with such as SMA, maybe even MACD.

     

    Being "unconventional", we need to look with an unbiased lens to possibly see that which we may not have expected.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    23 Oct 2012, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1290) | Send Message
     
    the volume weighting should make less of a difference to longer intervals. just thinking out loud here. you think?
    23 Oct 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The volume is a daily factor, so it has immediate effect each day, ameliorated by its inclusion into the periods aggregate volume. Some smoothing over time occurs because of the aggregation in the various periods. The only change I've considered so far is adding an exponential so that more recent action has more dramatic effect. But that has the potential to introduce more noise along with increased sensitivity.

     

    Right now, I'm holding what I've got until I understand it better and then will see where we can see improvements and assess the potential effects.

     

    What I *think* we are trying to detect is sentiment change that precedes price movement. Volume at the time would be an important component of that, just like in traditional TA where "Volume is the truth teller". It's given a lot of weight as to determining the strength of a developing trend, e.g. topping, bottoming, more to go, etc.

     

    Unfortunately, in traditional TA, you can't see where the volume was in relation to price spread, or buys and sells, during any day. We have the ability to see price effects, although it's not currently charted. But a close proximity to strength suggested by volume should already be incorporated into the formula since volume percent of buys and sells are separately calculated.

     

    If intra-day price was important for this, which on the surface I believe it isn't, I have the $ volume for buys and sells available that could be incorporated, although VWAP price might be sufficient.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Oct 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1290) | Send Message
     
    that exponential could make longer dated more useful but 5 and 10 and even 25 seem responsive enough. in the shorter intervals it probably just makes things oscillate too much for it to be useful.
    23 Oct 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yeah, maybe later on consider adding it to longer ones and see if we get a faster "confirmation", which to me is signified by congruence of behavior in a short(er) time-frame, although right now, for the limited time we've tracked, the confirmation does seem to occur relatively quickly.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Oct 2012, 12:24 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well, that 100K sell around 14:455 quashed the 10-day move towards above zero. At one point it was +3.11, now (96.4) at 15:08.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Oct 2012, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4848) | Send Message
     
    It sure occurs to me that someone is working to push the share price down.
    23 Oct 2012, 06:48 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1290) | Send Message
     
    their goal in that case is only to add shares then. otherwise, they want high prices so they earn more as they unload. that's why i like the inflection calc. it seems to make the most sense of buy/sell data.
    23 Oct 2012, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » D-inv: If that's the case it has to be MM accumulating for a big buy order. But I don't think a sell of 100K, even if short, would be the way they would do it.

     

    I'm leaning more towards the usual short sales followed by covering buys leaving a market-maker long with really cheap, to the MM, shares.

     

    Remember we had, excluding today 301K, 135K, 53K, 137K with VWAPs of $0.3219, $0.3004, $0.2962, $0.2919 the prior four days. Those 301K that likely got sold short @ $0.3219 would yield a nice profit if covered any of the following days. Then the shares backing the original sell orders flow in and the MMs have cheap shares to unload at additional profit.

     

    We shouldn't overlook that today 130,753 shares went at a VWAP of $0.2905 before the 100K at $0.28xx VWAP. That could be a MM shorting the 130K+ knowing (because he can see deep into his order book) that he can cover at $0.28xx.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Oct 2012, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1290) | Send Message
     
    that's the most likely play. i don't mind really, but i'd like some idea about who's sellin'
    23 Oct 2012, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4848) | Send Message
     
    I concede that the comment was most likely quite wide of the target.

     

    I had been engaged in "honey do" activities for a couple of hours and on re-connection elected to read this blog before any price screens or anything else. It was an inconvenient choice and I was way too quick to comment after reading your report of the 100K sell @ ~14:45 and thinking 1/2 to 2/3 a recent day's volume on one sell order in the middle of the afternoon following a near opening above average volume sale order at well below the previous day's close. It looked a bit too coincidental to me at the time. And, I thought about deleting the comment within minutes and would have if I had not already moved to another blog.

     

    I was very please to see share price bounced back quickly and closed very near $.29. That strikes me as a strong positive on a day when all the major indexes too hits.

     

    After looking at the OTCQB price chart, I can see some unloading of AXPW as a "lesser of evils" proposition to meet margin calls on exchange listed equities the past few days, particularly today.
    23 Oct 2012, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Mathieu: I got to thinking about the price aspect after yesterday's exchanges. As price moves up down, intra-day buy:sell behavior changes. Maybe I dismissed including price as a factor too quickly.

     

    I already have total dollars by buy and sell and it would be simple enough to see if factoring price in would yield a more useful set of metrics.

     

    Here's the problem: we know that generally "buys" will tend to go at higher volumes and prices with less lowering of the asks when sentiment is strong and buys come in strongly only on dropping asks when sentiment is weak. So including the price might mask what's really going on if, e.g., we got little buying volume when intra-day price was higher but large volume came in to buy as the ask dropped, which we've seen many times.

     

    I got to thinking a trend line factor might be just the ticket. Taking the degree of positive or negative slope of the intra-day trade prices as an additional factor ...?

     

    I'm thinking that something as simple as using it to augment either the buy or the sell results or maybe both (increase one, decrease the other).

     

    Most days the adjustment would be very small, I think, but the cumulative effect should allow a more accurate assessment.

     

    I think this might be worth some thought.

     

    This is the great thing about the interactive aspect of this stuff: if you hadn't mentioned price I would've never approached this.

     

    I wonder how many potentially useful ideas have been missed in life just because folks weren't able to interact.

     

    There's some potential pitfalls in this idea: will the tendency almost always be to see volume come in as asks drop and seldom when asks rise? Will this tend to make a price trend-line factor inclusion less useful? Maybe rather than intra-day we should use a trend line across similar periods (meh - would this just tend to reflect what's already being calculated without adding either granularity or new information?).

     

    HardToLove
    EDIT: Need to factor in shorts somehow? Thinking of the mechanics of the MMs and the potential distortion from day to day as they short, possibly cover, possibly release incoming shares from prior shorts into the market, possibly don't cover and just let DTCC net out prior shorts, ...?
    24 Oct 2012, 06:08 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4848) | Send Message
     
    Have you considered # of transactions as a variable? Seems to me that factoid is the closest thing available to reflect number of different investors. ISTM trade volume is generally thought of as an indicator of breadth of interest in a stock, but trade volume is not independent of share price.
    24 Oct 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1290) | Send Message
     
    i think # of transactions is less useful than volume, only because you have MM luring and people like me putting in multiple orders on days i buy/sell. average volume per transaction might be useful if someone could prove to me that certain volume per transaction means something. that might be the case, but i don't know how that knowledge could predict future price.

     

    thinking on price. the only reason i wanted to include it earlier is 'cause i think a buy or sell is more likely as the price changes. when the price isn't changing you might find an average churn rate. the problem is does knowing that average churn allow us to more accurately gauge sentiment. would an increase/decrease in churn suggest anything about future price? D-inv and the notion of price consideration might be combined together. but for now i am just not sure that info will offer us additional insight.
    24 Oct 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » D-Inv: # of transactions is much more a reflection of MM activity as they have to often trade chunks of orders over time to fill any particular order.

     

    What I am using, although it's not embedded in other calculations, is the average trade size. My working theory is that when larger players are in the market in quantity, larger trades are easier to make and we see a larger trade size average.

     

    When the larger players aren't there, the MMs have to aggregate lots of smaller trades to "build" a fill for larger orders.

     

    You can see the trends at the bottom of the chart. Look at the periods from 3/12 or so and 7/9. Also check the verbiage around “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” history posted each day and see the changes shown in the monthly averages.

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2012, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4848) | Send Message
     
    "D-Inv: # of transactions is much more a reflection of MM activity as they have to often trade chunks of orders over time to fill any particular order."

     

    I can understand that perspective, HTL. But then, doesn't MM aggregation/disaggrega... activity to fill those 'chunky' orders still reflect the number of "players" or market participants/investors? ISTM the agg/dagg activity reflects something comparable to a GINI distribution of income - disparity in size of AXPW investor pocketbooks/capital allocations to Axion shares. If buyers and sellers all wanted to execute comparably sized share transactions, there would be fewer transactions while if more transactions are needed to dispose of/acquire a finite number of shares it likely signals more investors.
    25 Oct 2012, 01:54 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1290) | Send Message
     
    another spinning top. actually looking at it now it looks like a doji... i dunno. thats a belt hold, white spinning top and a doji. seems like no one knows where axpw's stock price is headed.
    25 Oct 2012, 12:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Mathieu: Yes. I noted this in the comments I penned last night, but haven't posted yet (dinner called): "Price formed a “spinning top” candlestick again – price is apparently getting ready to do something but the normal oscillators can't find agreement among themselves. DRich did mention that the MACD he follows suggests a move up in five days".

     

    Good news is that the 10-day inflection point did what you were hunting for: "On my new inflection point calculations, the 10 period has moved above 0, now sitting at +53.63, up from yesterday's (80.79). All but the five-day are moving up and the 50-period has crossed above the 100-period metric. Another day or two of this and I might be convinced they're telling us a move up is near".

     

    The quotes above are from comments written last night and will be up shortly in the APC and then here within 30 minutes or so along with the updated charts.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Oct 2012, 05:50 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4848) | Send Message
     
    HTL, do your data files include trade execution times?
    25 Oct 2012, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » D-Inv. Yes. And more.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Oct 2012, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I've added some improved, I think, inflection point calculation charts wrapped around a copy of the price chart. Some false positives have been eliminated on the 5-day calculations and some erroneous contrary indications have also been reduced.

     

    Components of the calculation have been tweaked a bit. Two different versions using slightly different data.

     

    More to do.

     

    Comments and suggestions, if any, would be appreciated.

     

    TIA,
    HardToLove
    29 Oct 2012, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1290) | Send Message
     
    i want details if you change the formula. are you using redundant inputs (like counting two different sets of data about the same trade), that is awesome if you can do that.

     

    the five day looks "fixed" so, that looks like you did something very right in the calculation process. the indicator is long term bullish (50-100d) and short term neutral. i like us to break up inspite of recent price weakness because i think with the 100 day positive the trend is positive - i know that is early in traditional TA terms to call, but i am confident if only because this whole inflection thing began as a way to estimate shares moving out of weak hands.

     

    very interested to know how you worked price into the thing, i am assuming that's what you did.
    29 Oct 2012, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Mathieu: "i want details if you change the formula".

     

    You forgot to say "Pretty Please"! :-))

     

    Yes, I worked some variations of price and another factor into it, so two different charts with what seems, so far, to really have differences only in the scale of results. But more "eyeballs" by more knowledgeable folks are needed to confirm and maybe identify other opportunities. I'm currently looking at other data points that might be applied as well. It's slow going though since I'm uneducated.

     

    I also changed the formula to use more array-specific functions, although AFAICT, by examining the numerical values, it produced no difference in results. But it looks a lot cleaner.

     

    As to details ...

     

    I had a dream (no, not MLK's!). And not women either. :-((

     

    <rant>
    I awoke a few nights ago and recalled that anything published on SA is theirs to do use as they wish and we retain no rights. I recalled that they give no weight to the instabloggers and don't count activities, such as page views, likes, followers, ... do rankings, like they do for their authors of published articles (they used to treat all equally). I recalled that they don't have consistent enforcement and application of their TOU (lots of discussion on that long ago). I recalled that I decided not to submit any articles for publication long ago because of that even though it would fit with my philosophy and I had one of my "published" articles picked up by the Financial Times on-line, which was nice for the ego but not much else.

     

    They don't fix fix the bugs reported even when you post the needed algorithm to implement the fix. If you e-mail support@seekingalpha.com with a bug or enhancement request you get instead a nice "Thank you for reporting ..." and they don't even bother to tell you you're SOL.

     

    They could at least publish an obituary for any bug reports or enhancement requests going to their so-called "support" on technical issues! :-))

     

    IOW, I'm disgusted with SA's lack of support for us bloggers and commenters. I do believe we add value that they are able to monetize and they give too little in return.

     

    I guess we don't fit their business model well.
    </rant>

     

    I also began to wonder if stuff we all share in the blogs wasn't being used against "us", although that strikes me as a bit far-fetched. But I might be too trusting.

     

    I began to wonder if there might be a better use of this stuff down the road. I don't want to end up in a position of having no rights to it or it's use as I see fit because of SA's TOU.

     

    So I'm thinking no more posting of details of the stuff on-line on SA. Won't harm them but *might* help us (me?) down the road.

     

    I'm leaning towards e-mails not using SA's facilities. This would address most of the concerns I mention above and might entice more folks to participate more in helping me get this stuff refined and useful as well.

     

    I've also considered, in the past, doing a private invitation-only web site, since that's hosted so cheaply now, Then we could have all the things SA seems loathe to provide, including such as true (sub-)topic threading, correct flagging of new comments, ...

     

    But there's a down side in our own web site in that we have to support it and time is already at a premium. It would distract from my (our?) learning and investing time.

     

    I'll e-mail the revised formulas later after I get some shut-eye.

     

    BTW, I've not forgotten the other things on the table. Just been pushed for time.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Oct 2012, 02:34 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1290) | Send Message
     
    i guess just hit me up with an email. would be pretty lame to leave you work unattended online and have someone walk off with it.

     

    i dunno what to think of the reworked chart. again, a buy or sell signal for me only happens when there is a cross of the 0 line so i just never thought the five day was useful. looking at it now, while five day behaves more like i'd expect it to, the rest of the durations lose their predictive function as far as i can tell. if you factored in price that would make sense, or at least mean it is too big a factor in the longer intervals.
    30 Oct 2012, 05:31 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1290) | Send Message
     
    next week we test we move up or down. interested in how this times up with the CC.
    11 Nov 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Based on what happened last time - as I've mentioned we look very similar - I expect we'll see a move up. I posted a question for John about the possibility that we'd seen lock-up shares from the February issuance being dumped. I had totally forgotten about them. If it was six-month lock-up they could have started hitting in August.

     

    HardToLove
    11 Nov 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1290) | Send Message
     
    finally real tests of support. 202 to 234 is a victory even if we close under 25 cents. interested in where volume was felt more (@ what price more shares traded).
    12 Nov 2012, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    how was this a victory?... i'm over 200 messages behind on the APCs... had other things going on yesterday while AXPW got crushed to new lows...

     

    was there a news triggering event? (my outlook for catching APCs today is not good... article I published yesterday has lit my e-mail on fire)
    13 Nov 2012, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Jon: No news. AFAICT just repeating what happened leading to last quarterly reporting.

     

    Some have wondered aloud if some investors that are interested in the next financing might be trying to hammer the price to make shares cheaper.

     

    I don't know anything other than behavior seems similar to that we've seen before. We've also wondered if maybe tx law effects might be in play, but no way to even try an educated guess.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Nov 2012, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Thanks.

     

    It is most unfortunate. Thought we'd turn the corner soon. Seems less and less likely.
    13 Nov 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1290) | Send Message
     
    7 trades, 35250 shares, 0.2300-0.2300, VWAP 0.2300, 14:36-15:49

     

    is this an error?

     

    it might be more useful when tracking stock price to worry about mode more than closing price. i am sure this is something you've already figured out. anyway, so much @25+ cents is awesome.
    13 Nov 2012, 07:36 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » It is correct. What I did was look at price bands - sorted on price and then volume. Of course the prices were interspersed prior to the sort. My purpose was to see what it looked like in various bands to see where the strength was.

     

    BTW, Axion-nl caught that we had a hammer candlestick and Bulkowski says it does do a reversal a respectable part of the time - 60%?

     

    HardToLove
    13 Nov 2012, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1290) | Send Message
     
    so my buy of .234 is accounted in this band? it is too early for me right now.
    13 Nov 2012, 07:50 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I checked both my spreadsheet and the "Time & Sales" for yesterday (Monday) on Power ETrade Pro and there seems to be no $0.234 trade.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Nov 2012, 08:00 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1290) | Send Message
     
    lol. maybe 'cause i paid 24 cents. i need to go back to sleep. 6/10ths of a cent is serious business. rule #6 of AXPW trading handbook (rules 1-5= 1/10th is serious, 2/10th etc).
    13 Nov 2012, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LoL! Of course those fractions are serious - everybody measures success in percentage terms!

     

    Look at the swing yesterday - absolutely HUGE. Worthy of what's seen with huge negative PR.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Nov 2012, 08:27 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13581) | Send Message
     
    Adding more shares...

     

    I hate being out of pocket traveling when drama breaks out.
    13 Nov 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    want some of mine?

     

    I'm getting tired...

     

    Kidding... but only somewhat.
    13 Nov 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You'll feel better after Thursday Jon.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Nov 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    Well... yeah... there's even going to be a birthday party for me this year on Thursday ! (at a Chinese restaurant... not sure what the cake will be like... when I was in Hong Kong I had a dessert made of black sesame and seaweed... interesting, and good, but not exactly sweet tooth material)

     

    Anyway... will feel better after lunch... going for shrimp & grits at Fleet's Landing in Charleston...

     

    (yes... I seldom stop moving... but I'd like to... in January)
    13 Nov 2012, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Charleston is a nice place to be.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Nov 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1290) | Send Message
     
    nice action so far... jinx?
    13 Nov 2012, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I don't think it's a jinx to note it. Hammer, volume, 5-day inflection and looking at my charts intra-day the original inflection 10, 50 and 100 day versions are curling up as 5-day weakens - just like the other times.

     

    Buy:sell through 14:03 3.16:1 and VWAP $0.2381 and been climbing almost all morning from ~$0.23. Trade size recovering to, >5K ATM.

     

    HardToLove
    13 Nov 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19538) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » A new version of the instablog is up: trying to shorten it. Don't forget to click on the "Track new comments on this article" if you want to catch any comments.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    18 Nov 2012, 06:05 PM Reply Like
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