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AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 11/14/2012

|Includes:Axion Power International, Inc. (AXPW)

This is the fifth installment of the original "AXPW: Some Intra-Day Trade Charting" instablogs I've started doing on Seeking Alpha. The others grew, as I added daily commentary and FINRA data, to the point I was afraid the load time might become an irritant for folks that have less internet bandwidth or older computing equipment so I've started rolling to a new one aperiodically.

Versions subsequent to the original (latest to oldest) can be found here.

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 9/6/2012 - Xx/xx/2012

AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 7/7/2012 - 9/5/2012

I've been manually collecting this data while volume was low and it was therefore reasonable to do so. I'll stop when it gets too large unless I can craft a mechanized capture of most of the stuff.

I'll update this daily as long as I can for anybody that might find it useful. The chart will stay near the top and the text updates expressing my most recent thoughts will follow after the chart.

I've arranged the chart segments to put what I think are related stuff close together.

Should I break the chart into one or more manageable pieces? If so, suggestions for "clumping" are welcome.

The buy:sell inflection point calculations have periods that may not be appropriate for what we are attempting. Is there a preferred set of periods better than my 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 (200 will come when enough data is available). Should I drop one or more?

In the below chart note that the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!

(right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

AXPW Intra-day Statistics Chart 20121127Click to enlarge

The following are modified inflection point calculations bracketing a price chart for comparison. Note that the false bullish moves and contrary moves of the 5-day has been eliminated.

The two inflection points are calculated differently from each other and differently from the original above. More work to do, this is a start, hopefully.

I've identified some changes I want to try on the new inflection point calculations but haven't had time to implement them yet. I'll work them in over time after a little experimentation.

Comments and further suggestions welcome.

(right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

AXPW Intra-day Statistics Chart Test IP Calculations 20121127Click to enlarge

In all the charts above I had to:
- estimate 3/27 buy:sell ratio because I couldn't get ADVFN screen-shots that day,
- omit 3/28 data due to garbage from the ADVFN feed.

- estimate the buy:sell for the first 28 trades of 11/26 as the ADVFN feed did not properly classify then because the bid/ask was missing. I put all the $0.26xx trades below $0.2650 as sells and ones at or above $0.2650 as buys. This was 41% of the days volume, 227,698 shares.

Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values is now only in the latest daily comment - attempting to keep things shorter for faster loading.



12/05/2012: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 60, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 19003, Vol 284222, AvTrSz: 4737
Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3199, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3105
# Trds: 60, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 19003, Vol 284222, AvTrSz: 4737
Buy:Sell 1:2.25 (30.8% "buys"), DlyShts 20766 (7.31%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 10.55%

Glad to see that price is behaving as expected: hit resistance at $0.32 (I called $0.32-$0.33 range as likely). Since my last post, we've seen highs of $0.30, $0.2899, $0.296, $0.32, $0.3189 and $0.3199. The lows have held up reasonably well too: 0.262, $0.275, $0.28, $0.2931, $0.3095 and $0.30. During this period volume has been trending down, in thousands: 379, 231, 109, 315, 167 and 284. With price compression and reducing volume, we have a typical "consolidation" going on. While this has been happening, the VWAP has been generally trending upwards: $0.2874, $0.2793, $0.2917, $0.3089, $0.3112 and $0.3105.

The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff continues to support exhaustion of "big sellers", if that has any meaning, and smaller average trade sizes seem also to support this thesis.

My experimental inflection point calculations (updated charts not posted yet) suggest the end of the up trend that started 11/12 and price should begin to flatten out now. Everything but the five-day is still above zero though. But all are rolling over to head to, or below, zero again.

"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff omitted from the concentrator.

Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64% 139.27%
Mon. 10/22: 194.20% 19.54% 25.53% 15.21% 15.17%
Wed. 10/31: 62.24% 149.46% 39.90%
Mon. 11/05: 30.92% 7.61% 6.98% 3.53% 10.10%
Mon. 11/12: 4.01% 116.57% 30.19% 16.71% 39.58%
Mon. 11/19: 14.90% 3.88% 259.67% T'gvg Day 8.97% (1/2 day)
Mon. 11/26: 65.57% 142.31% 59.83% 11.20% 69.26%
Mon. 12/03: 29.97% 13.19% 10.55%

Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
Dec Avg: 17.90%, min: 10.55%, max: 29.97%

12/04/2012: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 28, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol 166912, AvTrSz: 5961
Min. Pr: 0.3095, Max Pr: 0.3189, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3112
# Buys, Shares: 15 57237, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3133
# Sells, Shares: 13 109675, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3101
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.92 (34.3% "buys"), DlyShts 14462 (8.66%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 13.19%

12/03/2012: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 62, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol 315316, AvTrSz: 5086
Min. Pr: 0.2931, Max Pr: 0.3200, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3089
# Buys, Shares: 37 199510, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3105
# Sells, Shares: 23 102506, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3061
# Unkn, Shares: 2 13300, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3051
Buy:Sell 1.95:1 (63.3% "buys"), DlyShts 30725 (9.74%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 29.97%

11/30/2012: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 36, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 108750, AvTrSz: 3021
Min. Pr: 0.2800, Max Pr: 0.2960, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2917
# Buys, Shares: 29 75810, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2929
# Sells, Shares: 6 27940, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2883
# Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2925
Buy:Sell 2.71:1 (69.7% "buys"), DlyShts 19350 (17.79%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 69.26%

11/29/2011: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 41, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 54500, Vol 230691, AvTrSz: 5627
Min. Pr: 0.2750, Max Pr: 0.2899, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2793
# Buys, Shares: 19 65491, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2816
# Sells, Shares: 22 165200, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2784
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.52 (28.4% "buys"), DlyShts 18500 (8.02%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 11.20%

11/28/2012: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 55, MinTrSz: 250, MaxTrSz: 47950, Vol 379318, AvTrSz: 6897
Min. Pr: 0.2750, Max Pr: 0.2899, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2874
# Buys, Shares: 42 268250, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2878
# Sells, Shares: 13 111068, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2867
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 2.42:1 (70.7% "buys"), DlyShts 66450 (17.52%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 59.83%

1205 Vol 0284222, Sht 0020766 08.66% LHC 0.3095 0.3189 0.3103 b:s 1:1.92
1204 Vol 0166912, Sht 0014462 08.66% LHC 0.3095 0.3189 0.3103 b:s 1:1.92
1203 Vol 0315316, Sht 0030725 09.74% LHC 0.2931 0.3200 0.3199 b:s 1.95:1
1130 Vol 0108750, Sht 0019350 17.79% LHC 0.2800 0.2960 0.2949 b:s 2.71:1
1129 Vol 0230691, Sht 0018500 08.02% LHC 0.2750 0.2899 0.2800 b:s 1:2.52
1128 Vol 0357400, Sht 0066450 18.59% LHC 0.2620 0.3000 0.2900 b:s 2.42:1[55]
1127 Vol 0435082, Sht 0119272 27.41% LHC 0.2799 0.3000 0.3000 b:s 4.13:1
1126 Vol 0538442, Sht 0173700 32.26% LHC 0.2600 0.2850 0.2700 b:s 1.08:1[54]
1123 Vol 0181320, Sht 0008920 04.92% LHC 0.2500 0.2600 0.2600 b:s 1:1.21
1121 Vol 0435540, Sht 0236170 54.22% LHC 0.2325 0.2600 0.2600 b:s 3.79:1
1120 Vol 0250730, Sht 0001684 00.67% LHC 0.2420 0.2590 0.2440 b:s 4.88:1[53]
1119 Vol 0255034, Sht 0013417 05.26% LHC 0.2400 0.2700 0.2500 b:s 1.83:1
1116 Vol 0122091, Sht 0031850 26.09% LHC 0.2450 0.2900 0.2599 b:s 1:1.67
1115 Vol 0134800, Sht 0013776 10.22% LHC 0.2450 0.2600 0.2451 b:s 1:1.93
1114 Vol 0265673, Sht 0035550 13.38% LHC 0.2411 0.2800 0.2700 b:s 1.26:1
1113 Vol 0317942, Sht 0079738 25.08% LHC 0.2210 0.2510 0.2500 b:s 3.65:1
1112 Vol 0394606, Sht 0011750 02.98% LHC 0.2018 0.2505 0.2350 b:s 1:3.27
1109 Vol 0446285, Sht 0031790 07.12% LHC 0.2490 0.2624 0.2549 b:s 1:2.49
1108 Vol 0184350, Sht 0005300 02.87% LHC 0.2510 0.2645 0.2550 b:s 1:4.36
1107 Vol 0234275, Sht 0010000 04.27% LHC 0.2550 0.2600 0.2552 b:s 1:1.49
1106 Vol 0458734, Sht 0025782 05.62% LHC 0.2550 0.2745 0.2550 b:s 1:2.83
1105 Vol 0413112, Sht 0073575 17.81% LHC 0.2651 0.2800 0.2700 b:s 1:1.36
1102 Vol 0121685, Sht 0033240 27.32% LHC 0.2700 0.2900 0.2775 b:s 1:2.17
1101 Vol 0064550, Sht 0013900 21.53% LHC 0.2650 0.2900 0.2900 b:s 4.87:1
1031 Vol 0237627, Sht 0030993 13.04% LHC 0.2700 0.2800 0.2700 b:s 3.99:1[52]
1026 Vol 0214540, Sht 0021142 09.85% LHC 0.2651 0.2905 0.2800 b:s 1:1.85
1025 Vol 0189057, Sht 0016124 08.53% LHC 0.2870 0.3000 0.2950 b:s 1:1.28
1024 Vol 0208128, Sht 0030500 14.65% LHC 0.2812 0.3000 0.2900 b:s 1:1.35
1023 Vol 0308459, Sht 0035253 11.43% LHC 0.2800 0.2994 0.2890 b:s 1:1.41
1022 Vol 0314476, Sht 0137200 43.63% LHC 0.2550 0.3000 0.2975 b:s 3.45:1
1019 Vol 0115753, Sht 0052700 45.53% LHC 0.2901 0.3000 0.2960 b:s 2.06:1
1017 Vol 0944468, Sht 0300576 31.82% LHC 0.3100 0.3400 0.3100 b:s 1.19:1
1016 Vol 0309537, Sht 0026508 08.56% LHC 0.3000 0.3300 0.3299 b:s 1:1.004
1015 Vol 0375477, Sht 0070800 18.86% LHC 0.3100 0.3250 0.3199 b:s 1.32:1
[52] There were two AH trades, 2K at $0.271 and 8.9K at $0.270, that aren't included in the FINRA-reported data. If we add these two total FINRA-reported volume the short percentage moves from 13.4% to 12.47%. If we also add it to the short sales it moves to 16.86%. Although we believe Quercus is not in the market any longer, it seems worthwhile to consider the possibility they might be because we keep seeing selling pressure. It could be do to other players though. Anyway, 1/11th of the days volume, including the AH trades, would be ~22.6K. Depending on what trades near the end of the day we include, including the AH trades regardless, we can see 20.9K to 25.9K at prices of $0.270-$0.271 that might be some kind of market-maker balancing trades if Quercus or someone else selling ~10% of volume is in the market.
[53] There were two premarket trades totaling 4K at $0.25 and one AH trade of 285 shares at $0.2509. These are not included in the FINRA-reported data. If we add them in, the daily short percentage drops to 0.66% from the reported 0.67%. If we also add them to the short sales, the percentage moves to 2.34%.
[54] FINRA-reported quantity has two issues, related to the feed problems today I guess. First, the after-hour trades totaling 4.5K shares are not included and, beyond that, the reported total volume is down another 7,200 shares. The after-hour shares were not AH trades as they were tagged "seq", meaning they occurred earlier but were reported out of sequence. For these reasons I'll skip the usual attempt to detail possible adjustments.
[55] There was one AH trade at $0.285 of 21,918 shares. This is not included in FINRA-reported data. Including it in total volume move the short percentage from 18.59% to 17.52%. If we also include it in the short sales, the percentage moves to 23.3%.

11/27/2012: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.# Trds: 91, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 60000, Vol 435082, AvTrSz: 4781
Min. Pr: 0.2799, Max Pr: 0.3000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2956
# Buys, Shares: 69 346272, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2965
# Sells, Shares: 20 83810, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2915
# Unkn, Shares: 2 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2960
Buy:Sell 4.13:1 (79.6% "buys"), DlyShts (27.41%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 142.31%

Purty good day. First, the unusual. All day long, up until the expected late-day profit taking began (around 15:35) we had bids moving up much more often than asks moving down, even with ATDF and NITE on the scene. Even after that began, at 15:45 we moved back to $0.2999 from the $0.2902-$0.2904 seen and closed with a final 12K trade at $0.30. This opens the door to the question: who gets taken out first - the steadfast sellers who held sway most of the day at $0.300 with little-to-no negotiation or the buyers? With volume only ~100K lower than yesterday's ~543K I think we have at least another day around this level - maybe more.

On the traditional TA front, we see good volume with the 50-day SMA ($0.2832) solidly broken and our high ready to try and push through the descending resistance of our long-term trading channel, ~$0.304(?). We have a short-term rising support, originated at the low of $0.2018 on 11/12 with a touch at the low of 11/21 of $0.2325. Those are the only touches yet so we don't know it's strength. If it is good support, it's notable that it has crossed above the falling support of our descending trading channel, currently about $0.242. Our rising short-term support is ~0.247 and sloped ~0.004/day.

Our trading range today was completely above an intermediate-term falling resistance originating at the high, $0.34, of 10/17 with a touch at the high of $0.29 11/15. Since we moved right through this over the last two days, we can surmise that it offers little chance of support if it is revisited. It's ~$0.271 today and slopes (~$0.01)/day. All the oscillators I follow are showing strong bullish tendencies: RSI ~68, MFI ~86.5, stochastic entering oversold at ~74.7 and even the ADX has finally arrived (on volume too!) with DI+ of 29 and DI- of 14. Need to see the ADX itself move now from it's current 24 to 30+. Last, my experimental 13-period upper Bollinger is being pushed. Should see at least one more day of that and, if we have a strong run started, could go much longer.

On my experimental charts, the average trade size continues to suggest that the market-makers are having to work for their bread, as John suggested. No need to say much about today's buy:sell other than even with the late-day profit-taking it couldn't be depressed to levels we'd seen in the past. Selling pressure described as "weak" would be generous to the sellers. Take a look at the buy:sell averages on my experimental charts and I think you'll see good indications of bullishness developing.

Based on today's price action I expected to see "reasonable" short sales. Came in at 119,272, 27.41%, continuing, I think, to recover to more "normal" as it moved above all the averages and long-term trend, all of which had been depressed by the recent abnormally low figures. If volume stays "good" we should see it start to stabilize somewhat. I also expected to see "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" show some strength as with the very high buy:sell the shorts I expected had to be to the high side of "sells", and they were.

Volume, since the 16th, has been trending up nicely and today moved above all the averages.

Looking at my experimental inflection point calculations gives me a warm fuzzy feeling. The trend suggested beginning around the 12th is apparently coming to fruition and gaining strength. Let's hope it's not just another few-days "blip" up followed by a retreat. I think not because the move has been long and strong enough to move all, including the newly added 200-day calculation, into an upward attitude.

11/26/2012: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 92, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 37700, Vol 550142, AvTrSz: 5980
Min. Pr: 0.2600, Max Pr: 0.2850, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2694
# Buys, Shares: 56 285244, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2723
# Sells, Shares: 36 264898, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2663
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.08:1 (51.8% "buys"), DlyShts 173700 (31.57%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 65.57%

NOTE: ADVFN had feed issues through the first 28 trades, 227,698 shares (~41% of volume), with no bid/ask and erroneous classification of all as "buys". By the time I recognized it, the bid/asks had disappeared from my Power Etrade Pro platform, due to other issues today, and I had no way to classify. So I set all the trades of ~$0.26 to "sells" (I know some were "buys") and those >= $0.265 to "buys". From the 29th and forward trade, I had notified ADVFN and the new stuff started acting correctly. We can not rely on today's buy:sell and their effect on my experimental inflection point calculations.

FINRA-reported quantity has two issues, related to the feed problems today I guess. First, the after-hour trades totaling 4.5K shares are not included and, beyond that, the reported total volume is down another 7,200 shares from what I track. The after-hour shares were not AH trades as they were tagged "seq", meaning they occurred earlier but were reported out of sequence.

For these reasons I'll skip the usual attempt to detail possible adjustments.

On the traditional TA front, today we had good volume on a nice rise, bumped through the 50-day SMA ($0.2834) and fell back, broke and closed above a short-term triangle formation suggesting consolidation is over, started pushing my experimental upper Bollinger band up (generally get around three days of push before separation occurs) and all the oscillators I watch have moved to a bullish attitude. Momentum has progressed to 1.12, RSI 59.76, accumulation/distribution is slightly positive at ~.31 and even the ADX has finally crossed with the DI- at 17 and the DI+ at 25. This last must continue to strengthen though for much weight to be given it.

We closed above an intermediate-term descending channel resistance begun 10/17 and are about centered in the long-term descending trading channel, ostensibly heading to the resistance, currently around $0.307.

Heading to my experimental stuff, all this seems to be in sync with my experimental buy:sell inflection calculations, which began an early suggestion of a move up from ~10/12 onward. This is the original "flaky" one, so I expect the five-day to roll over as the others strengthen to confirm some move up. However, if this move is of longer and stronger duration than prior ones, which were all short-lived, the five-day may behave differently. I've not yet had a chance to look at the two later versions.

Short sales continues to move towards, IMO, more normal behavior and buy:sell has moved positive long enough for the 10-day SMA to cross above the three longer-term calculations. Average trade size is right at the 50-day average now, moving above the 25-day SMA.

All things considered, especially approaching EOY, I'm cautiously optimistic that this move may have some legs for a week or so. I wouldn't be surprised to see us touch $0.30+ before we have a pause. That would be an important point I think, based on past behavior.

With apparent confirmation, on the experimental stuff I'm working, that the big sellers really are gone (see my experimental charts and instablog regarding "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and the different attitude of the buy:sell inflection point charts), I may be overly cautious here. Maybe not though. We keep getting surprised regardless of what we think, news, charts, ...

11/23/2012: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 33, MinTrSz: 120, MaxTrSz: 52100, Vol 181320, AvTrSz: 5495
Min. Pr: 0.2500, Max Pr: 0.2600, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2555
# Buys, Shares: 23 81920, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2597
# Sells, Shares: 10 99400, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2520
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.21 (45.2% "Buys"), DlyShts 8920 (4.92%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 8.97%

Half-day of trading, to me, says don't read much into anything.

Average trade size moved up above the 10-day average, which was nice to see. Buy:sell is back to just below normal around the 50% range, continuing the improvement started since 11/8. VWAP did a teeny push up, following what the inflection point calculations have continued to suggest (if we can believe them). And the daily short sales did what we've seen so many times after a large spike up - plummeted to an absurdly low percentage. The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff continues to suggest, if I'm interpreting it right, no big sellers as the November average is still trending down, now at 46.44%.

11/21/2012: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 82, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 109700, Vol 435540, AvTrSz: 5311
Min. Pr: 0.2325, Max Pr: 0.2600, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2498
# Buys, Shares: 61 344590, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2507
# Sells, Shares: 21 90950, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2465
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 3.79:1 (79.1% "buys"), DlyShts 236170 (54.22%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 259.67%

Well, after yesterday's very odd behavior, today was a big relief to me. We had "normal" intra-day price movements, a mixture of "buys" and "sells" throughout the day, indications of the market-maker(s) having to work for their bread (as JP mentioned in a comment), as evidenced by an apparent pushing price down to accumulate shares for a larger buy by a market-maker customer, and decent rise with volume into the close to finish +6.26% (IIRC) on the day at $0.26 on a 10K "buy". Best of all ...

The daily shorts are back to normal behavior (I thought I would see it yesterday but I was unusually wise and kept my mouth shut), indicating that the abnormal environment (my best guess is MMs excessively long or a lot of intra/inter-broker trades) is ended for the moment. This was with "decent"volume on the day.

Our low for the day may be disturbing until you realize that we have what would appear to be a "normal" distribution for a "normal" market, as opposed to yesterday's quixotic behavior. At the two extremes, we have an essentially "balanced" distribution as a percentage of the days activity. I note this only because I'm looking for confirmation that things are apparently getting back to rational behavior. Seeing an approximation of a "bell curve" (albeit a bit skewed) in the following, I am comforted. :-))

0.2325-0.2399 62070 14.25%, 13500 Sell, 48570 Buy All 09:37-10:07
0.2600-0.2600 6882015.80%, 05000 Sell, 63820 Buy 11:04 on, intermittent

Betwixt those extremes:
0.2400-0.2499 042000 09.64%, 15500 Sell, 026500 Buy
0.2500-0.2549 214800 49.32%, 56950 Sell, 157850 Buy
0.2550-0.2599 047850 10.99%, 00000 Sell, 047850 Buy
0.2600-0.2600 068820 15.80%, 05000 Sell, 063820 Buy

On the traditional TA front ...

We have an outside reversal exhibiting, in this case, as a "bullish engulfing pattern". Bulkowski notes it acts as a bullish reversal 63% of the time, which is pretty good - ranking in the top quarter at 22nd out of 103 patterns. Unfortunately, indicated performance after 10 days is not good. In the times I've watched this though, there is generally at least a short-term bullish move that can be quite "decent".

Price continues to push through and come back above our falling support, now at ~$0.2445. We also touched and bounced off my experimental 13-period lower Bollinger, 0.2353. Most of the oscillators are again(!) curling up and only the stochastic and ADX have yet to begin moving more bullishly. Momentum has actually moved above neutral now at 1.02 - not strong but much better than recent readings. Combined with an early bullish PSAR (which I generally don't consider - I don't have a lot of faith in it) and all the other things I've mentioned, I think we can again go challenge the 50-day SMA, $0.2844 and falling.

On my experimental charts, the trend in average trade size continues lower, suggesting as JP noted, that market-makers are having to work harder, with the big sellers ostensibly out of play. At the same time, the trend in recent buy:sell continues to recover from a down trend that seems to have started around 10/1 and ended around 11/8. Volume continues to strengthen from the lows of 11/15 and 11/16 and finished above all it's averages. Hopefully it continues to rise slowly rather than making a reversion to a level below the averages again.

My experimental inflection point calculations are approaching a critical test I think. I consider it critical because, unlike past bullish indications I've examined, the values are much more widely separated on their charts as they seem rotate towards bullishness. For the recent action, here's what I've noted.

- 11/19 "All three versions of my inflection point calculations are suggesting that some price appreciation may occur" and "The original (and "flaky" I must remind) inflection point calculations are lining up to suggest a price rise I think" and a bunch more in way of explanation;
- 11/20, in part, " all my original inflection point calculations, except the five-day, to start curling up and sustain that attitude. Since we know on this version the five-day usually goes contrary ... those suggest some upward pressure may be developing. My two newer versions of that chart, which consider factors in addition to buy:sell, are in a similar attitude";
- 11/13, ... and my interpretation of them, are valid we have a move up beginning

So, what are the results and are we indeed getting some advance notice? Subsequently we've seen closes of: 11/13 $0.25, 11/14 $0.27, 11/15 $0.2599, 11/16 $0.2451, 11/19 $0.25, 11/20 $0.244, 11/21 $0.26.

As of now, the original buy:sell only calculations have all periods moving up with the four longer-term periods moving quite smartly. The current readings are 299.95, 128.61, -42.09, -485.54 and 832.13 for the 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100-day rolling calculations respectively. With 3 above zero and the two remaining moving strongly towards zero, the behavior is similar to that seen in past instances of some small moves up that would have been predicted.

The two newer variations, that consider some factors other than buy, are also suggesting upward movement. Readings for the simpler one are 104.67, 32.80, -7.63, -124.64 and 291.78, while the more discerning one has readings of 107.82, 37.32, 7.21, -94.59 and 348.73. With three and four, respectively, readings from each set being above zero and all moving smartly up we ought to see at least very little downward price pressure and, ideally, would actually see some movement up.

But even if it works out, all is not coming up roses. All three of the calculations seem to have reliably suggested some movement up, when the period readings are used in combination, but they have all been short-term moves that quickly faded and reversed as we remained in the long-term down trend seen since I began tracking in February.

I have not considered, and can not now envision, a way to predict strength or duration of changes in price from these calculations. There are some ideas on the back-burner though.

"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" continue to suggest that John's call that the big sellers are gone is correct.


: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.# Trds: 64, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 22500, Vol 255015, AvTrSz: 3985
Min. Pr: 0.2420, Max Pr: 0.2590, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2497
# Buys, Shares: 53 211614, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2506
# Sells, Shares: 11 43401, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2453
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 4.88:1 (83% "buys"), DlyShts 1684 (0.66%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 3.88%

There were two pre-market trades totaling 4K at $0.25 and one AH trade of 285 shares at $0.2509. These are not included in the FINRA-reported data. If we add them in, the daily short percentage drops to 0.66% from the reported 0.67%. If we also add them to the short sales, the percentage moves to 2.34%.

Daily short sales continue at an abnormally low level. This suggests that the market-makers are long (or lying to FINRA about shorts? Nah, they wouldn't) and since recent daily short sales don't suggest a lot of shares from prior sell orders flowing in (in K: 79.74, 35.55, 13.78, 31.85, 13.42 and 1.68 today) we have to look for other mechanisms that allow the market-makers to sell shares without flagging them as "short". We have the normal(?) inter-broker and intra-broker (I'm favoring this one) trades that could allow this condition to occur. With the same two or three at the top of the bid and ask, essentially, all day long, it's easy to guess that intra-broker trades are making a higher percentage of trades than is normal. This seems more likely on very low volumes, as we've been seeing recently.

Another possibility is that the market-maker(s) are being more active in accumulating and distributing shares over very short time frames to increase their profits. This might be supported by yesterday's odd action. To wit ...

The day began with 2 pre-market trades (very unusual) totaling 4K at $0.25. Through 11:39 there were 22 trades totaling 84,084 shares that were all buys at $0.25 and one $0.2499, except one "sell" of 900 shares at $0.2441. The buy:sell was 81.32:1. At 11:54 price started moving around, moving to $0.2550 and going as low as $0.2420 through the rest of the day with a VWAP of $0.2496. Even with that, you can see from the "buys" percentage above that buying was still relatively strong. Looking back at my experimental charts, normally when "buys" were excessively high there was a high percentage of short sales.

There was a change in this behavior in October and that change has continued through the present. I'm going to hazard a guess that there's a lot more intra-broker trades or the market-makers are getting "pre-loaded" with shares as folks at the brokerages started doing things based on ... the election? Expected tax effects since the election? Clearing "losers" off the books before EOY? I can't say, but behavior, as evidenced by market-maker shorts, has changed.

Leaving that topic ...

On the traditional TA front, volume was flat (~1K variation), price again penetrated the descending support (~$0.244) and recovered above it and weakened into the close to end the day right there. This caused the oscillators I follow to become muddled again and I can draw no hint as to near-term direction from them. At least we are hanging in the descending trading channel, albeit at the bottom of it.

My experimental 13-period Bollingers are now converging, so that suggests we might just twaddle around here (also called "consolidation") for a while.

On my experimental charts, volume finished just below all its averages, short sales doing the same, average trade sizes doing the same. Only the buy:sell blew away all its averages, continuing a recent general rising trend since 11/8. This has been sustained long enough and strongly enough to ...

Cause all my original inflection point calculations, except the five-day, to start curling up and sustain that attitude. Since we know on this version the five-day usually goes contrary after suggesting a price rise and before the others also indicate a rise, and the five-day is now going down as these others rise, those suggest some upward pressure may be developing. My two newer versions of that chart, which consider factors in addition to buy:sell, are in a similar attitude.

I'm always cautious with these, because of my inexperience with them and their unconfirmed reliability as yet. With the odd behavior recently I'm even more suspicious. When there's abnormal influences and actions I don't think charts are all that reliable.

"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" continue to suggest that John's call that the big sellers are gone is correct.

11/19/2012: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 48, MinTrSz: 250, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol 255034, AvTrSz: 5313
Min. Pr: 0.2400, Max Pr: 0.2700, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2517
# Buys, Shares: 31 164957, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2514
# Sells, Shares: 17 90077, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2521
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.83:1 (64.7% "buys"), DlyShts 13417 (13.42%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 14.90%

Well, it may be surprising to know we had an up day on improving volume. We had a penetration below the descending support (~$0.246?) of our falling trading channel. But it was only 12,417 shares on 6 out of 48 trades. All were "sells". After each group of occurrences, 3, price quickly recovered to $0.25 and once to $0.26. Unfortunately, our $0.27 high was a single7,407 share trade right at the open and the first sub-$0.25 trades came in 15 minutes.

The oscillators I watch are still mixed with RSI and MFI improving while the stochastic is trying to weaken. Only the ADX is worth mentioning: the DI+ and DI- have essentially converged (20 and 19 respectively) and look to cross, as predicted if tomorrow does at least as well as today. Our price range is still slightly below my experimental 13-day Bollinger mid-point. But it is still off the bottom. Doesn't suggest any particular movement except possibly continued centering to the mid-point. This would be up a wee bit, maybe to ~$0.26xx, which we did encompass today.

Looking at my experimental stuff ...

Volume and daily short sales continue their piddling, not suggesting much of anything. I've been watching the price vs. Trend lines for a long time and the correlation continues to strengthen, with all now being 80% or greater. I had been hoping to see a divergence develop, but it hasn't happened, except for some sort-term periods, yet.

There's some good indication of some upward price: buy:sell and it's averages, have apparently bottomed out and begun to move towards more normal levels. Average trade size has improved from the abysmal depths in the last two days. Still at the low end of what I believe indicates "retail" though.

The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff, if I read it's meaning correctly, continues to say that the large, long-term, heavy sellers are out. We are, AFAICT, seeing action (Nov. Avg: 36.19%, min: 3.53%, max: 149.46%) reflective of only retail investors awaiting a positive catalyst before making a decision.

All three versions of my inflection point calculations are suggesting that some price appreciation may occur. The reliability of these is yet unknown and I'm not yet confident I've sussed all the nuances they may have.

The full listing of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff and a more extensive discussion of the inflection points are omitted from the concentrator.

The original (and "flaky" I must remind) inflection point calculations are lining up to suggest a price rise I think. The five-day is drooping while the 10, 25 and 50-day version have begun to curl up. Recall that this version considers only "buy:sell" ratios while the two later versions have different versions of price considerations included. The original has demonstrated behavior of an early indication by the five-day rising and then dropping while the longer terms are rising. This is generally followed by a price rise of at least a small degree.

The newer version incorporating the simplest consideration of price is suggesting that a move up is in the offing. But it's still an early indication and I don't have enough experience with it, subsequent to the apparent exodus of the heavy sellers, to know how reliable it is. With the five-day calculation crossing above 0 and the 10 through 50-day all curling up, past chart results suggest at least a moderate rise is likely if we presume it's reliability is unaffected by the presence or lack of presence of the big sellers.

The newer version with the more complex price consideration is making the same suggestion and for the same reasons.

11/16/2012: (NASDAQ:AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 25, MinTrSz: 420, MaxTrSz: 23500, Vol 122091, AvTrSz: 4884
Min. Pr: 0.2450, Max Pr: 0.2600, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2496
# Buys, Shares: 14 41621, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2505
# Sells, Shares: 11 80470, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2492
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.93 (34.1% "buys"), DlyShts 31850 (26.09%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 39.58%

The first thing I want to mention is that TB's next buy point of $0.16 would mean price has regressed to 2003 levels and all gains in the business prospects and revenues and irons in the fire and volume and ... have mattered not one whit to the &*(^%#$#%#) market yet. I don't understand how this might come about when other highly-touted stocks fall by the wayside in spite of strong government support and Axion survives with almost no governmental benefit at all. Obliviously (sic) the market doesn't get it. Great for crying "free market" and "if government would get out of the way" but the market actions are speaking louder than the words. Obviously addicted to government support, including grants and QE-infinity.

On the traditional TA front one of the few things that I think may be worth noting from the last few days is that our close Friday was almost precisely at the "reversion to the mean" price of the range encompassed by the low of $0.2018 on Mon. 11/12 through the high of $0.29 the day of the report 11/15. Since this was on very low volume as well and the price is sitting right on the descending support of our falling trading channel, there's a chance that we could see some push up resulting from this. As could be expected, the oscillators have again weakened though so that few are suggesting upward price movement like they were a few days back.

Momentum has strengthened to ~0.96 from the ~0.86 I mentioned recently. That's still not a positive though - just less negative. On the day of the conference call we pushed to the falling 50-day SMA ($0.2888) and promptly got rejected, closing at $0.2599. The high was also just below my experimental 13-period upper Bollinger band, $0.2917. We have pulled away from the lower band, but still haven't moved back to mid-range of the two limits.

The ADX is quite close to making a bullish cross, but it will require a couple days of bullish behavior (i.e a higher "buy" percentage) to actually accomplish the cross.

On my experimental charts stuff, daily short sales continues to make the choppy moves towards more normal range, moving again above all four averages and hitting smack-dab on the rising long-term trend line.

Buy:sell seems to be moving towards more normal as well, now being above the 10-day "buy" average of 38%. It has flattened and looks like it may start moving towards the longer-term averages (46%, 47% and 51% for the 25, 50 and 100-day averages respectively). It doesn't currently look like it'll be a fast move though unless some larger percentages of "buys" are seen over the next few days.

Average trade sizes remain very small, but have recovered to what I consider the low end of retail trading sizes. It's still below all the averages though.

The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff is omitted from the concentrator.

11/15/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff NOT copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 44, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 10300, Vol 131800, AvTrSz: 2995
Min. Pr: 0.2450, Max Pr: 0.2900, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2546
# Buys, Shares: 17 49350, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2621
# Sells, Shares: 27 82450, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2501
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.67 (37.4% "buys"), DlyShts 13776 (10.45%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 16.71%

11/14/2012: (AXPW) EOD stuff NOT copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 67, MinTrSz: 370, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 265673, AvTrSz: 3965
Min. Pr: 0.2411, Max Pr: 0.2800, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2617
# Buys, Shares: 40 147920, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2651
# Sells, Shares: 27 117753, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2575
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.26:1 (55.7% "buys"), DlyShts 35550 (13.38%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 30.19%

Nothing remarkable about volume or daily short sales - doing the same things as approach to last quarterly report - both low and bouncing a bit.

Price continued to recover nicely from the nadir of $0.20xx on Monday. We saw some early strength taking us from the open of $0.2411 to $0.28 by 10:16 on total volume of 91,853 shares. Then things settled and we spent most of the day forward in the $0.255x-$0.26 area and pulled out a small rise to the $0.27xx area in the last 12 minutes, with a close at $0.27. Volume wasn't great during this rise, so it didn't really suggest any strength.

We're solidly back into our descending trading channel, which showed support at ~0.2475, and we did break above that short-term descending resistance I mentioned that made the apex of a triangle formed with the falling support of the trading channel. Bulkowski was right on this one - we got a break and it was up as I theorized was suggested by what was going on around this area. We got that 3-4 penny move I was expecting.

The oscillators I follow continued to strengthen and even the ADX's DI- and DI+ converged substantially, preparing to cross if we aren't tanked by the quarterly report.

We topped right at the 50-day SMA and withdrew and we've also pulled away solidly from the lower Bollinger band. On the 16th day, we closed above it and on the 17th, our range was above - so the 16 days record on the one-year chart stands.

On my experimental charts front, I only want to mention that trade sizes continue to be quite small, buy:sell continues to recover nicely, and my original inflection point calculations remain status quo with normal variations in the indicators and the 25-day slightly up, as expected. If I was watching something, I would look first for the five-day to again curl up and/or the other periods to weaken a second day. "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" continues to suggest no big players doing nasty things.

The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff now only included in the latest post to help shorten the loading time for readers and is omitted from the concentrator.

Disclosure: I am long AXPW.

Stocks: AXPW