Seeking Alpha

H. T. Love's  Instablog

H. T. Love
Send Message
Spent over 30 years in computer systems work, many different functions. Owned my own business for awhile. Got tired of it (managing employees is not my baliwick) and stopped doing it professionally. Did other things, off and on, for some more years and finally bumped into this investing/trading... More
  • AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 12/15/2012 18 comments
    Dec 24, 2012 7:24 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    This is the sixth installment of the original "AXPW: Some Intra-Day Trade Charting" instablogs I've started doing on Seeking Alpha. The others grew, as I added daily commentary and FINRA data, to the point I was afraid the load time might become an irritant for folks that have less internet bandwidth or older computing equipment so I've started rolling to a new one aperiodically.

    Versions subsequent to the original (latest to oldest) can be found here.

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 11/14/2012

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 9/6/2012 - Xx/xx/2012

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 7/7/2012 - 9/5/2012

    I've been manually collecting this data while volume was low and it was therefore reasonable to do so. I'll stop when it gets too large unless I can craft a mechanized capture of most of the stuff.

    I'll update this daily as long as I can for anybody that might find it useful. The chart will stay near the top and the text updates expressing my most recent thoughts will follow after the chart.

    I've arranged the chart segments to put what I think are related stuff close together.

    Should I break the chart into one or more manageable pieces? If so, suggestions for "clumping" are welcome.

    The buy:sell inflection point calculations have periods that may not be appropriate for what we are attempting. Is there a preferred set of periods better than my 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200? Should I drop one or more?

    In the below chart note that the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!

    (right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

    AXPW Intra-day Statistics Chart 20130131

    The following are modified inflection point calculations bracketing a price chart for comparison. Note that the false bullish moves and contrary moves of the 5-day has been eliminated.

    The two inflection points are calculated differently from each other and differently from the original above. More work to do, this is a start, hopefully.

    I've identified some changes I want to try on the new inflection point calculations but haven't had time to implement them yet. I'll work them in over time after a little experimentation.

    Comments and further suggestions welcome.

    (right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

    AXPW Intra-day Statistics Chart Test IP Calculations 20130131

    In all the charts above I had to:
    - estimate 3/27 buy:sell ratio because I couldn't get ADVFN screen-shots that day,
    - omit 3/28 data due to garbage from the ADVFN feed.
    - estimate the buy:sell for the first 28 trades of 11/26 as the ADVFN feed did not properly classify then because the bid/ask was missing. I put all the $0.26xx trades below $0.2650 as sells and ones at or above $0.2650 as buys. This was 41% of the days volume, 227,698 shares.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values is now only in the latest daily comment - attempting to keep things shorter for faster loading.

    1/31/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 18, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 63453, AvTrSz: 3525
    Min. Pr: 0.3156, Max Pr: 0.3240, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3209
    # Buys, Shares: 9 31561, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3222
    # Sells, Shares: 6 24392, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3195
    # Unkn, Shares: 3 7500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3200
    Buy:Sell 1.29:1 (49.7% "buy:sells"), DlyShts 0 (00.0%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 0.00%

    Well, if not for John's instablog on the results of the ePower trip, this would have been a rather boring day. Fortunately, he saved the day for me.

    Not a lot to say - contrast to yesterday is pronounced with very low volume, tight spread of 2.66%, the bids and asks didn't jump around much, nothing large appeared. Yes, we did finish up 0.03% (that's three one-hundredths percent or one one-hundredth of a penny!) so I guess there's still joy in Mudville.

    Other than that, I'll keep it short (of which there were none today). Traded blow the 200-day SMA of $0.3237 except for one 1K trade of $0.3240. Lower high and almost flat low ($0.3155 yesterday). Oscillators I follow that were trying to curl up gave up on that today and went to flat or turning slightly down except for the stochastic, which is just below neutral at ~49.36. We closed exactly on the potential new rising support, so it's still unknown if this will be a new rising channel support. My gut says unlikely right now.

    On my experimental stuff, everything's pretty much just as it was yesterday.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points omitted from the concentrator.

    Rolling 5-day inflection point calculation aggregate percentage change (now abbreviated):
    ***** ****** 5 Day* 10 Day* ***25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200
    01/02 5 Day__ +1.7311 0.8801 -0.0558 +0.2866 +0.9093 0.3548
    01/03 5 Day__ +2.8928 1.1418 -0.4169 +0.2347 +0.8716 0.3026
    01/04 5 Day__ +2.5147 1.1596 -0.1110 +0.3407 +1.0791 0.4436
    01/07 5 Day_ 115.9265 1.8286 +0.3990 +0.4807 +2.1187 0.6169
    01/08 5 Day__ +7.4156 2.1889 +0.4208 +0.5852 +2.8340 0.7242
    01/09 5 Day__ +0.5320 7.8836 +0.2393 +0.6268 16.6772 0.8250
    01/10 5 Day__ +1.6836 6.8097 +0.5376 +0.7086 12.5582 1.0029
    01/11 5 Day__ +1.1175 8.1745 +0.9853 +1.2435 19.3472 1.6578
    01/14 5 Day__ +0.0573 1.0754 +1.2790 +1.2745 +0.0055 1.9391
    01/15 5 Day__ +0.9586 0.0692 +0.5985 -0.0491 +1.4061 0.3115
    01/16 5 Day__ +0.1023 0.2720 +1.7258 +1.7945 +0.6391 5.4648
    01/17 5 Day__ +0.2965 0.2411 +2.1847 +1.9185 +1.1112 231.89
    01/18 5 Day__ +0.9670 0.2984 31.5189 +0.7955 +1.4562 0.1043
    01/22 5 Day__ +1.0912 0.5329 +1.8751 +1.2372 +2.1753 0.2188
    01/23 5 Day__ 15.3998 0.3083 +3.3973 +1.8862 -0.9149 2.2813
    01/24 5 Day__ +1.4354 0.7040 +0.8388 +0.9657 +2.4958 0.7080
    01/25 5 Day__ +1.7061 0.8786 +0.6529 +1.3018 -7.3447 0.9677
    01/28 5 Day__ +8.5118 1.2078 +0.8914 +0.2141 -0.6465 0.3657
    01/29 5 Day__ -1.5467 1.3559 +1.2324 +0.1753 -0.2369 0.1058
    01/30 5 Day__ +1.3545 0.3916 +1.0512 +0.0247 -0.50380.0607
    01/31 5 Day__ +0.6500 2.0413 +0.5244 +0.0840 -0.2844 0.5583

    Average % change/day, 5 days
    ______ *5 Day 10 Day_ *25 Day 50 Day* 100 Day 200 Day
    01/02 +0.2641 +0.1523 -0.0263 +0.0374 +0.2040 +0.0483
    01/03 +0.4101 +0.1606 -0.0961 +0.0106 +0.1422 +0.0300
    01/04 +0.3721 +0.1805 -0.0199 +0.0396 +0.1836 +0.0673
    01/07 22.9868 +0.2999 +0.1697 +0.0710 +0.3478 +0.0987
    01/08 +1.2607 +0.3645 +0.1506 +0.0784 +0.4593 +0.1237
    01/09 -0.2398 +1.4007 +0.0590 +0.0680 +3.1536 +0.0940
    01/10 -0.2418 +1.1336 +0.1909 +0.0948 +2.3373 +0.1401
    01/11 -0.2794 +1.4030 +0.2193 +0.1806 +3.6536 +0.2428
    01/14 -23.174 -0.1506 +0.1760 +0.1588 -0.4226 +0.2644
    01/15 -1.2914 -0.4239 +0.0355 -0.1269 -0.2856 -0.0826
    01/16 -0.0859 -1.5223 +0.2973 +0.2335 -3.2076 +0.9280
    01/17 -0.2774 -1.3137 +0.3294 +0.2420 -2.2894 46.1771
    01/18 -0.0301 -1.5752 +6.1067 -0.0896 -3.5782 -0.3107
    01/22 +0.2068 -0.1085 +0.1192 -0.0075 +0.4340 -0.3441
    01/23 +2.8882 +0.0478 +0.5598 +0.3871 -0.4642 +0.3940
    01/24 +0.2666 +0.0864 -0.1774 -0.1658 +0.3713 -0.9514
    01/25 +0.2819 +0.1275 -0.3064 -0.1233 -1.6912 -46.1841
    01/28 +1.5090 +0.1819 -6.1255 -0.1163 -0.4205 +0.0523
    01/29 -0.5276 +0.1646 -0.1285 -0.2124 -0.4824 -0.0226
    01/30 -2.8090 +0.0167 -0.4692 -0.3723 +0.0822 -0.4441
    01/31 -0.1571 +0.2675 -0.0629 -0.1763 -0.5560 -0.0299

    I encourage those with an interest to look at the charts and notice the prior patterns similar to the current one and the resulting price activity.

    Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
    Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64% 139.27%
    Mon. 10/22: 194.20% 19.54% 25.53% 15.21% 15.17%
    Wed. 10/31: 62.24% 149.46% 39.90%
    Mon. 11/05: 30.92% 7.61% 6.98% 3.53% 10.10%
    Mon. 11/12: 4.01% 116.57% 30.19% 16.71% 39.58%
    Mon. 11/19: 14.90% 3.88% 259.67% T'gvg Day 8.97% (1/2 day)
    Mon. 11/26: 65.57% 142.31% 59.83% 11.20% 69.26%
    Mon. 12/03: 29.97% 13.19% 10.55% 15.57% 40.42%
    Mon. 12/10: 3.59% 9.24% 135.35% 6.19% 12.73%
    Mon. 12/17: 26.17% 8.82% 44.97% 3.63% 15.11%
    Mon. 12/24: 258.33% 92.71% 31.98% 1.54%
    Mon. 12/31: 14.36% H'lday 262.58% 6.39% 131.03%
    Mon. 01/07: 45.09% 77.18% 52.53% 36.35% 52.72%
    Mon. 01/14: 27.99% 0.70% 48.48% 11.09% 11.21%
    Tues. 01/22: 00.26% 23.79% 12.89% 8.36%
    Mon. 01/28: 69.26% 42.03% 7.96% 0.00%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
    Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%

    ============ 2013 ===============
    Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 262.58%

    0131 Vol 0063453, Sht 0000000 00.00% LHC 0.3156 0.3240 0.3200 b:s 1.29:1
    0130 Vol 0159470, Sht 0008500 05.33% LHC 0.3155 0.3300 0.3199 b:s 1:2.02
    0129 Vol 0145105, Sht 0014627 10.08% LHC 0.3216 0.3311 0.3290 b:s 3.17:1
    0128 Vol 0094400, Sht 0018700 19.81% LHC 0.3140 0.3300 0.3250 b:s 2.50:1
    0125 Vol 0473350, Sht 0027500 05.81% LHC 0.2960 0.3220 0.3140 b:s 1:2.28
    0124 Vol 0416640, Sht 0033450 08.03% LHC 0.3000 0.3440 0.3222 b:s 1:1.67
    0123 Vol 0210763, Sht 0029000 13.76% LHC 0.3380 0.3500 0.3440 b:s 1:1.55
    0122 Vol 0257760, Sht 0000660 00.26% LHC 0.3456 0.3579 0.3500 b:s 1.04:1
    0118 Vol 0278075, Sht 0020530 07.38% LHC 0.3500 0.3600 0.3585 b:s 1:1.93
    0117 Vol 0439978, Sht 0029800 0.0677% LHC 0.3505 0.3757 0.3600 b:s 1:1.60
    0116 Vol 1005050, Sht 0033500 03.33% LHC 0.3475 0.3600 0.3550 b:s 13.5:1
    0115 Vol 0943341, Sht 0005957 05.96% LHC 0.3470 0.3789 0.3551 b:s 1:9.74
    0114 Vol 0684858, Sht 0xxxxxx xx.xx% LHC 0.3650 0.3775 0.3708 b:s 1.46:1
    0111 Vol 1213987, Sht 0198230 16.33% LHC 0.3370 0.3800 0.3650 b:s 2.23:1
    0110 Vol 0151803, Sht 0014641 09.64% LHC 0.3304 0.3393 0.3364 b:s 2.77:1
    0109 Vol 0179487, Sht 0008800 04.90% LHC 0.3304 0.3392 0.3370 b:s 9.72:1
    0108 Vol 0464487, Sht 0127965 27.55% LHC 0.3300 0.3480 0.3346 b:s 1.74:1
    0107 Vol 1460809, Sht 0246800 16.89% LHC 0.3013 0.3449 0.3297 b:s 1.65:1
    0104 Vol 0333439, Sht 0126782 04.18% LHC 0.2951 0.3094 0.3043 b:s 1:2.84
    0103 Vol 0178207, Sht 0007450 04.18% LHC 0.2951 0.3094 0.3043 b:s 1:2.84
    0102 Vol 0529058, Sht 0173888 32.87% LHC 0.2751 0.3048 0.3047 b:s 6.70:1[58]
    1231 Vol 0335909, Sht 0019837 05.91% LHC 0.2780 0.2938 0.2800 b:s 1.43:1
    1228 Vol 0348380, Sht 0002500 00.72% LHC 0.2800 0.2937 0.2900 b:s 1.15:1
    1227 Vol 0273202, Sht 0058940 21.57% LHC 0.2781 0.2938 0.2899 b:s 1:2.07
    1226 Vol 0291990, Sht 0106190 36.37% LHC 0.2875 0.2939 0.2881 b:s 1.55:1
    1224 Vol 0092461, Sht 0031000 33.53% LHC 0.2775 0.2940 0.2899 b:s 6.08:1 1/2 day
    1221 Vol 0177767, Sht 0017200 02.97% LHC 0.2760 0.2822 0.2822 b:s 1:2.11
    1220 Vol 0518010, Sht 0015400 02.97% LHC 0.2780 0.2825 0.2800 b:s 1:4.50
    1219 Vol 0461037, Sht 0079930 17.34% LHC 0.2750 0.2899 0.2762 b:s 1.57:1
    1218 Vol 0643912, Sht 0045500 07.07% LHC 0.2790 0.2900 0.2800 b:s 1:4.03
    1217 Vol 1159260, Sht 0194200 16.75% LHC 0.2800 0.3150 0.2869 b:s 1:1.77[57]
    1214 Vol 0314472, Sht 0026728 08.50% LHC 0.2710 0.2975 0.2810 b:s 1:2.01
    1213 Vol 0180859, Sht 0008340 04.61% LHC 0.2812 0.2990 0.2835 b:s 1:2.91
    1212 Vol 0051900, Sht 0013400 25.82% LHC 0.2880 0.2989 0.2931 b:s 4.24:1
    1211 Vol 0432678, Sht 0033000 07.63% LHC 0.2845 0.3016 0.2851 b:s 1:4.73
    1210 Vol 0245295, Sht 0003711 01.51% LHC 0.2900 0.3084 0.2999 b:s 1.41:1[56]
    1207 Vol 0341475, Sht 0115000 33.68% LHC 0.3000 0.3100 0.3049 b:s 1:4.99
    1206 Vol 0383650, Sht 0039617 10.33% LHC 0.2975 0.3179 0.3049 b:s 1:1.97
    1205 Vol 0284222, Sht 0020766 08.66% LHC 0.3095 0.3189 0.3103 b:s 1:1.92
    1204 Vol 0166912, Sht 0014462 08.66% LHC 0.3095 0.3189 0.3103 b:s 1:1.92
    1203 Vol 0315316, Sht 0030725 09.74% LHC 0.2931 0.3200 0.3199 b:s 1.95:1
    1130 Vol 0108750, Sht 0019350 17.79% LHC 0.2800 0.2960 0.2949 b:s 2.71:1
    1129 Vol 0230691, Sht 0018500 08.02% LHC 0.2750 0.2899 0.2800 b:s 1:2.52
    1128 Vol 0357400, Sht 0066450 18.59% LHC 0.2620 0.3000 0.2900 b:s 2.42:1[55]
    1127 Vol 0435082, Sht 0119272 27.41% LHC 0.2799 0.3000 0.3000 b:s 4.13:1
    1126 Vol 0538442, Sht 0173700 32.26% LHC 0.2600 0.2850 0.2700 b:s 1.08:1[54]
    1121 Vol 0435540, Sht 0236170 54.22% LHC 0.2325 0.2600 0.2600 b:s 3.79:1
    1120 Vol 0250730, Sht 0001684 00.67% LHC 0.2420 0.2590 0.2440 b:s 4.88:1[53]
    1119 Vol 0255034, Sht 0013417 05.26% LHC 0.2400 0.2700 0.2500 b:s 1.83:1
    1116 Vol 0122091, Sht 0031850 26.09% LHC 0.2450 0.2900 0.2599 b:s 1:1.67
    1115 Vol 0134800, Sht 0013776 10.22% LHC 0.2450 0.2600 0.2451 b:s 1:1.93
    1114 Vol 0265673, Sht 0035550 13.38% LHC 0.2411 0.2800 0.2700 b:s 1.26:1
    1113 Vol 0317942, Sht 0079738 25.08% LHC 0.2210 0.2510 0.2500 b:s 3.65:1
    1112 Vol 0394606, Sht 0011750 02.98% LHC 0.2018 0.2505 0.2350 b:s 1:3.27
    1109 Vol 0446285, Sht 0031790 07.12% LHC 0.2490 0.2624 0.2549 b:s 1:2.49
    1108 Vol 0184350, Sht 0005300 02.87% LHC 0.2510 0.2645 0.2550 b:s 1:4.36
    1107 Vol 0234275, Sht 0010000 04.27% LHC 0.2550 0.2600 0.2552 b:s 1:1.49
    1106 Vol 0458734, Sht 0025782 05.62% LHC 0.2550 0.2745 0.2550 b:s 1:2.83
    1105 Vol 0413112, Sht 0073575 17.81% LHC 0.2651 0.2800 0.2700 b:s 1:1.36
    1102 Vol 0121685, Sht 0033240 27.32% LHC 0.2700 0.2900 0.2775 b:s 1:2.17
    1101 Vol 0064550, Sht 0013900 21.53% LHC 0.2650 0.2900 0.2900 b:s 4.87:1
    1031 Vol 0237627, Sht 0030993 13.04% LHC 0.2700 0.2800 0.2700 b:s 3.99:1[52]
    1026 Vol 0214540, Sht 0021142 09.85% LHC 0.2651 0.2905 0.2800 b:s 1:1.85
    1025 Vol 0189057, Sht 0016124 08.53% LHC 0.2870 0.3000 0.2950 b:s 1:1.28
    1024 Vol 0208128, Sht 0030500 14.65% LHC 0.2812 0.3000 0.2900 b:s 1:1.35
    1023 Vol 0308459, Sht 0035253 11.43% LHC 0.2800 0.2994 0.2890 b:s 1:1.41
    1022 Vol 0314476, Sht 0137200 43.63% LHC 0.2550 0.3000 0.2975 b:s 3.45:1
    1019 Vol 0115753, Sht 0052700 45.53% LHC 0.2901 0.3000 0.2960 b:s 2.06:1
    1017 Vol 0944468, Sht 0300576 31.82% LHC 0.3100 0.3400 0.3100 b:s 1.19:1
    1016 Vol 0309537, Sht 0026508 08.56% LHC 0.3000 0.3300 0.3299 b:s 1:1.004
    1015 Vol 0375477, Sht 0070800 18.86% LHC 0.3100 0.3250 0.3199 b:s 1.32:1
    [52] There were two AH trades, 2K at $0.271 and 8.9K at $0.270, that aren't included in the FINRA-reported data. If we add these two total FINRA-reported volume the short percentage moves from 13.4% to 12.47%. If we also add it to the short sales it moves to 16.86%. Although we believe Quercus is not in the market any longer, it seems worthwhile to consider the possibility they might be because we keep seeing selling pressure. It could be do to other players though. Anyway, 1/11th of the days volume, including the AH trades, would be ~22.6K. Depending on what trades near the end of the day we include, including the AH trades regardless, we can see 20.9K to 25.9K at prices of $0.270-$0.271 that might be some kind of market-maker balancing trades if Quercus or someone else selling ~10% of volume is in the market.
    [53] There were two pre-market trades totaling 4K at $0.25 and one AH trade of 285 shares at $0.2509. These are not included in the FINRA-reported data. If we add them in, the daily short percentage drops to 0.66% from the reported 0.6 7%. If we also add them to the short sales, the percentage moves to 2.34%.
    [54] FINRA-reported quantity has two issues, related to the feed problems today I guess. First, the after-hour trades totaling 4.5K shares are not included and, beyond that, the reported total volume is down another 7,200 shares. The after-hour shares were not AH trades as they were tagged "seq", meaning they occurred earlier but were reported out of sequence. For these reasons I'll skip the usual attempt to detail possible adjustments.
    [55] There was one AH trade at $0.285 of 21,918 shares. This is not included in FINRA-reported data. Including it in total volume move the short percentage from 18.59% to 17.52%. If we also include it in the short sales, the percentage moves to 23.3%.
    [56] There was one pre-market trade of 4K shares @ $0.3084 which are excluded from the FINRA-reported data. Adding this to volume moves the short sales percentage from the reported 1.51% to 1.49%. If we also add it to short sales, the percentage moves to 3.09%.
    [57] There was one pre-market trade of 2.5K @ $0.30 which are not in the FINRA-reported data. Adding this to the total volume moves the reported short percentage from 16.75% to 16.72%. If we also add it to short sales the percentage moves to 16.93%
    [58] 9.9K in pre-market trades are not included on the FINRA-reported data. If these are included in total volume, the short percentage moves from 32.87% to 32.26%. If they are also included as short sales, the percentage moves to 34.10%.

    1/30/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 33, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 30500, Vol 159470, AvTrSz: 4832
    Min. Pr: 0.3155, Max Pr: 0.3300, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3236
    # Buys, Shares: 12 52720, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3244
    # Sells, Shares: 21 106750, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3232
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.02 (33.1% "buys"), DlyShts 8500 (5.33%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 7.96%

    On the traditional TA front, I'm comforted that it's behaving as expected - today a 4.596% spread with increasing volume matches my Monday speculation that "I believe there's a decent chance we'll have a little pause here and maybe some volatility, in a day or two(?), with a little push to that $0.30 area again and a little overshoot (seems to be common)". Part 1 is happening, which is a relief since Tuesday surprised me with a (premature?) bounce up with no appreciable rise in volume.

    We have a lower high and low on rising volume and the low touched exactly, AFAICT, the potential new rising support. It's still only potential though and I don't have confidence yet that it is defining a new rising trading channel. If things go as I think, we should trade below this back to the older rising support, currently ~$0.30, and maybe a little overshoot.

    The oscillators I watch continue mixed with some moving towards a neutral stance and others weakening a bit.

    On my experimental stuff, not much change - very small short sales volume and percentage, still very small average trade size, buy:sell down continuing the vacillation around the "normal" that suggests uncertainty, volume still low even though up from yesterday, and VWAP, $0.3236 finally dropped below the falling 200-day SMA VWAP of $0.3239. It looks like that will try to drag us lower along with the other weakening indicators. My experimental 13-period lower Bollinger suggests another two or three days of price weakening if everything behaves as has been common in the past.

    My experimental inflection point calculations continue to weaken. However, the patterns do seem similar in many respects to the set ups before signaling a rise that were seen in the past. All we can do is wait and see. These have always taken a while to develop.

    I do think this down movement is short-term as I do expect that we'll start another leg up once we drop to the rising support again. Nothing technical says this yet - just my best SWAG combining everything.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    1/29/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 29, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 145105, AvTrSz: 5004
    Min. Pr: 0.3216, Max Pr: 0.3311, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3288
    # Buys, Shares: 21 110305, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3295
    # Sells, Shares: 8 34800, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3263
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 3.17:1 (76% "buys"), DlyShts xxx (%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 42.03%

    On the traditional TA front, it looks like a little indecision is ruling the day as we move essentially sideways (the higher low and high is too small to consider significant in just the second day of pushing against $0.33). If we do go sideways, I think it will be only for short-term (3 - 5 days?). The $0.33 is an old friend - an area seen in past times of "churn". All the oscillators are heading up towards neutral and none are in oversold any longer.

    I don't think another dip into the $0.30xx area should be unexpected here, and maybe a little overshoot. Beyond that feeling, there's nothing suggestive of direction or timing. We're still inside the rising trading channel (both the older and newer one), we're futzing around with the 200-day SMA ($0.3249), pretty much centered inside the "standard" 20-period Bollingers (~$0.3319).

    IOW, "Too Much of Nothing".

    On my experimental front, our VWAP is above the 200-day SMA ($0.3244), average trade still below what I think is normal retail (MMs working hard?), buy:sell is up, volume still low and if the price spread wasn't so narrow we'd still be pushing my experimental 13-period lower Bollinger. The experimental inflection point calculations are in transition with a way to go yet, so there's no help there.

    More "nothing to see here - move along, move along".

    Something I've not mentioned for a while that is positive is the price vs. the trend lines. You may recall it wasn't too long ago that correlation was running in the 82 area. For sometime now, due to the nice appreciation since November, the correlation is down to 62 and 63. I think it's positive because we've not had a sustained break above these lines for a long time. My guess is we'll be slowly pulling them up rather than them yanking us back down.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest post at the top.

    1/28/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 25, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 16000, Vol 94400, AvTrSz: 3776
    Min. Pr: 0.3140, Max Pr: 0.3300, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3219
    # Buys, Shares: 19 67400, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3227
    # Sells, Shares: 6 27000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3198
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.50:1 (71.4% "buys"), DlyShts 18700 (19.81%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 69.26%

    Well, I got a little surprise today. Yesterday I said "Since volume stayed relatively flat and price seemed to have easily found support in the $0.30 and above area, we might see a quick reversal to the next leg up with the trading channel. With price below the mid-point of the "standard" 20-period Bollingers, but not pushing the lower bound, this seems more likely than not".

    I was thinking in terms of 2 - 3 days with some reducing volume. Instead we got reducing volume and a 3.91% boost in the VWAP. But volume this low and the number of trades being so small, I figure this is just a "bounce" since we did bottom at, or very near, our old rising trading channel support the last two days. My guess is that a small cadre of folks that had been awaiting a bounce off support, watching their own charts, figured this was a good buy point, and I can't argue with that. But we'll need to see volume come in to believe that the next leg up has really begun.

    This is not a worrisome situation, IMO, as our low is above the rising support (~$0.30 & rises ~$0.01/week) and our high popped briefly above the 200-day SMA ($0.3258 yesterday). The close finished just below that, which is something not unexpected. We even had our low stay above the potential new rising channel support, ~$0.309(?).

    On top of that, we seem to be trading around the mid-range of our 2-day drop, ~$0.32. Combined with the range, ~$0.016, and volume, I believe there's a decent chance we'll have a little pause here and maybe some volatility, in a day or two(?), with a little push to that $0.30 area again and a little overshoot (seems to be common).

    The oscillators I watch are curling from low levels towards neutral, except MFI which is still falling. With low volume I wouldn't read too much into the oscillators curling up here - it's likely just relief from downward pressure allowing them to "float" to a more neutral stance here.

    We continue to "push" my experimental 13-period lower Bollinger and the "standard" 20-period mid-point is at ~$0.33, so I think we can expect some movement centered around our current area for a day or two. This will have the effect of trying to push the 200-day SMA below our price - we should watch to see if that acts to push price along with it.

    On my experimental charts stuff, trade size is below what I think of as "retail" (MMs working hard to make some scratch today?) and buy:sell just above "normal" range. Daily short sales continues to move towards a "normal" area from the abnormally low range.

    My experimental inflection point stuff continues to set up for a rise, but is not yet indicating such, if I read it correctly.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    1/25/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 85, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol 473350, AvTrSz: 5569
    Min. Pr: 0.2960, Max Pr: 0.3220, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3097
    # Buys, Shares: 33 144250, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3110
    # Sells, Shares: 52 329100, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3092
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.28 (30.5% "buys"), DlyShts 27500 (5.81%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 8.36%

    On the traditional TA front, we saw the expected first signs of a "consolidation" with VWAP slightly below the mid-range of the Thursday spike down. However, volume hasn't yet started to drop, but neither has it moved up. This leaves me thinking in terms of "uncertainty" as to "what's next".

    The low for the day was one trade of 2.5K and the next low, $0.2970, was two trades of 9.2K and 1K. All the other trades were >= $0.30 and, as can be seen in the VWAP, demonstrated good price support in spite of the "weak" buy:sell.

    Discounting the three trades below $0.30, price found support at the old rising trading channel support line. The trades below were likely just an "overshoot" as a few stops were triggered or a few folks pulled the trigger out of fear.

    Interestingly, the close was just above the potential new rising channel, ~$0.307(?), leaving it as possibly in play.

    With a second down day, the MFI oscillator has moved to oversold territory, but it's still lonely there. The other oscillators I follow continued to weaken, as one would expect, except the ADX (and related DI- and DI+) and the stochastic, which has started to curl up.

    Since volume stayed relatively flat and price seemed to have easily found support in the $0.30 and above area, we might see a quick reversal to the next leg up with the trading channel. With price below the mid-point of the "standard" 20-period Bollingers, but not pushing the lower bound, this seems more likely than not.

    Conversely, the price is "pushing" the lower bound for a second consecutive day. In the past this has portended lower price. With some oscillators showing positive transitions and the rising support of the older rising trading channel seeming to provide strong support I wouldn't be surprised to see price pull away (above) that lower bound quite quickly.

    Price-range breakdown:
    $0.2960-$0.2970 12700, 2.68%, VWAP $0.2968
    $0.3000-$0.3020 41800, 8.83%, VWAP $0.3006
    $0.3050-$0.3089 65850, 13.91%, VWAP $0.3063
    $0.3100-$0.3148 294600, 62.24%, VWAP $0.3107
    $0.3150-$0.3195 26100, 5.51%, VWAP $0.3161
    $0.3200-$0.3220 32300, 6.82%, VWAP $0.3201

    The trend was high in the morning, dip to lows as the day progressed, 10:30 - 1:03, and then recover to predominately at and above $0.31 from 11:45 onwards.

    On my experimental charts, trade size was in what I think is mid-range of retail, buy:sell weakened (but buyers stepped up and supported price regardless), daily short sales continued it halting typical move of up and down while making the usual short-term rise off of extreme lows, in percentage terms.

    My inflection point calculations have now began another "set up" towards indicating a rising price. I'll holler when it looks like the pattern will complete.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    1/24/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 82, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 34000, Vol 416640, AvTrSz: 5081
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3440, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.3278
    # Buys, Shares: 31 155641, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3307
    # Sells, Shares: 50 259499, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3261
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 1500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3185
    Buy:Sell 1:1.67 (37.4% "buys"), DlyShts 33450 (8.03%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 12.89%

    First a CORRECTION! Yesterday I talked about a potential new rising trading range that rose more steeply than the old channel: "... if it is the channel in play, the support is currently ~$0.3270 ...". Well, today, I can clearly see it was ~$0.321(?). I think I inadvertently plugged the 200-day SMA into that statement yesterday, which was $0.3269 then.

    The interesting thing is that after price plunged to $0.30 today, we came right back into that (the corrected) area, closing at $0.322. So there is a possibility that this is support for a new rising trading channel.

    Yesterday I also said "The mid-point of my experimental 13-period Bollinger band is currently $0.32". It looks like that came into play as, again, we are right back in that area.

    And "Potential recently-seen support prices reside at $0.32-$0.33, which I wouldn't call strong, but if we get a penetration of that I suspect stops will get triggered and we'd see a higher-volume break below it". It looks like that's what happened?

    ~09:30 - ~10:30, $0.3400-$0.3440 051,640, VWAP $0.3428, 12.39% of volume.
    ~10:30 - ~10:30, $0.3350-$0.3375 040,915, VWAP $0.3365, 09.82% of volume.
    ~10:30 - ~10:33, $0.3300-$0.3320 149,035, VWAP $0.3303, 35.77% of volume.

    Then prices got volatile when some trigger points kick in? Times below are just where it looks like the majority of trades in that price range occurred. There's other lower and higher prices mixed in some of them.

    ~10:33 - ~10:33, $0.3000-$0.3000 017,200, VWAP $0.3000, 04.13% of volume
    ~10:35 - ~11:44, $0.3250-$0.3290 032,500, VWAP $0.3258, 07.80% of volume.
    ~15:04 - ~15:50, $0.3200-$0.3223 106,350, VWAP $0.3207, 25.53% of volume.
    Random times -, $0.3100-$0.3195 019,000, VWAP $0.3165, 04.56% of volume.

    Volume at prices below $0.33 was 175,050, 42% of total volume.

    The encouraging part is that price bounced immediately off the low matching the rising support of our older trading channel. So even as stops may have been triggered, there was enthusiastic(?) buying willing to sop up shares as prices moved back to the day's mid-range.

    On the traditional TA front, we closed below the 200-day SMA of $0.3264, considered a bearish sign. We closed down on a rise in volume, suggesting there may be further to go. All the oscillators I follow are in definite bearish territory, but none made it into oversold yet.

    On the positive side, I've already mentioned we bounced off the rising support. We're still trading above a rising 50-day SMA (which we just missed touching) at $0.2996. Our volume did not exceed the 25-day average of the prior day, ~505.82K, so it's not a really strong suggestion of severe downward pressure. That's not a lot to hang a hot on.

    However, any "big" move in either direction generally takes a few days to "settle". This often occurs in the mid-range of the "big" move. If it's going to settle the tendency will be for spread to begin to narrow and volume to start to taper off.

    At this time I feel there's a good chance that the support will hold but we'll need to be alert.

    On my experimental stuff, nothing exceptional - trade size at the very low end of what I think is "retail", 10-day buy:sell average moved below normal, daily short sales moved slightly below the 10-day average (~7.8%), volume is right in the area of the 50 and 100-day SMA, and my experimental inflection point continue to suggest weakness in store.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    1/23/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 49, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol 210763, AvTrSz: 4301
    Min. Pr: 0.3380, Max Pr: 0.3500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3430
    # Buys, Shares: 24 78848, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3445
    # Sells, Shares: 23 121915, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3419
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3450
    Buy:Sell 1:1.55 (37.4% "buys"), DlyShts 29000 (13.76%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 23.79%

    As I stated I suspected yesterday, I believe we are seeing beginning of the leg down towards support in our rising trading channel. We broke below the pennant support, below the 10-day SMA of yesterday ($0.3532) and we can identify the beginning of a descending trading channel (although its yet quite early to say it will be a channel) within the rising trading channel which is still definitely in play.

    N.B. With the price action seen since the start of the trading channel in November it's now possible that the channel is rising move steeply than the original configuration. The support and resistance each have at least two additional touches beyond the origin and so are almost as "strong" as the originals. I used the previous penetrations of the original channel as touch points to construct this new potential channel. Anyway, if it is the channel in play, the support is currently ~$0.3270 and would lend support in that range rather than the $0.30 the old channel would suggest. We'll need to watch it when price nears that support line. The mid-point of my experimental 13-period Bollinger band is currently $0.32.

    Potential recently-seen support prices reside at $0.32-$0.33, which I wouldn't call strong, but if we get a penetration of that I suspect stops will get triggered and we'd see a higher-volume break below it.

    All the oscillators I watch are now either very near neutral or slightly below and continue weakening.

    Being in a down leg and the measurement period of the 50-day SMA being where it is, the 50-day SMA will cease the move towards going "parabolic" for now and will be pushed further out, likely to somewhere after the next up leg after we bounce off the rising support (but see the next item) of the trading channel begun in November.

    There is a chance that we won't make a full leg down to support of the old trading channel. I don't know the likelihood of this - a mid-channel reversal. It's not totally uncommon, but it's too early for anything I see to be suggesting that's likely, other than the potential new trading channel support.

    Because the volume has gotten quite low there's a possibility we have bottomed. But I don't think so. I'm expecting more downward movement with rising volume for now as the down leg develops.

    The 200-day will continue to drop for quite a while yet and will begin to accelerate down, albeit slowly for a while, as the leg down develops. This should leave the 200-day SMA somewhere around the mid-to-low $0.32xx area (currently at $0.3269) by the time share price is likely to intersect it in just a few days. So there is some potential support that may appear from that metric. With it dropping though, it's unlikely to be strong or long-lasting support.

    If your investing, I think there's no worry - this sure appears to be my long-sought "grind up" in play with a "reversion to the mean" ending around the $0.30-$0.31 area (ignoring the potential new trading channel) where it will be encountering the rising support of our old trading channel.

    If you're a trader, "heads up".

    On my experimental charts front, average trade size is volatile and today went to the low side of what I think is retail range. Buy:sell is just a bit lower than normal still, but has improved from the recent low.

    Daily short sales are moving up towards normal again and hit the 25 and 50-day SMAs today, on a percentage basis.

    My original experimental inflection point calculations continue to suggest weakening but are in a transition state ATM. The newer ones are similar.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    1/22/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator
    # Trds: 39, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 57350, Vol 257760, AvTrSz: 6609
    Min. Pr: 0.3456, Max Pr: 0.3579, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3490# Buys, Shares: 19 131160, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3499# Sells, Shares: 20 126600, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3481# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000Buy:Sell 1.04:1 (50.9% "buys"), DlyShts (0.26%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 0.52%

    Daily short sales behavior is definitely changing. My thinking is that with so many MMs being associated with brokers now and those(?) same MMs being so often on both sides of the trades, they are not selling shares not in their control as much, but selling right out of the brokerage. Compared to when the "big uglies" were hammering the price, the extreme low short volumes and percentages are generally more frequent and the extremely higher short sales volumes and percentages are lower and less frequent. I think this means, in its effect, its as if market makers are generally more often long than in the past. I expect this will be unlikely to change until we see more ("real"?) MMs more frequently involved in making this market.

    On the traditional TA front, signs of weakening continue to grow. It appears that we will exit the potential banner to the down side as we've had today's low and close below the rising support. We do have a "southern doji" candlestick that is supposed to be a bullish reversal. Bulkowski notes that it acts that way only 52% of the time - nearly random.

    Trading range is back under the resistance of the rising trading channel - I expect a leg down to support unless it breaks above again on strong volume tomorrow or the next day. All the oscillators I follow are now in agreement - developing weakness.

    In contrast to that potential doom & gloom, we do need to keep in mind that we are at a demonstrated price support level - $0.35. Our recent penetrations of that have been shallow, but today is the largest in the last 5 trading days and is combined with falling highs. Nothing in the volume suggests an end to this weakening yet, other than the falling volume itself - but it's not low enough to make me feel semi-confident that we might have bottomed. Our shorter-term averages are on the rise, and in the correct order though, with the 10-day SMA above the 200-day and the 20-day about to push above the 200-day.

    The best I'm hoping for short-term ATM is a sideways trading, but I'm not expecting it.

    On my experimental stuff, the 10-day average buy:sell percentage is moving lower towards the longer-term averages again and trade size is about what I judge to be mid-retail.

    My original experimental inflection point calculations say we are headed lower now and my two newer versions seem to be in agreement. They are early in the formation of the pattern, but I've begun to gain some confidence in them. We'll see.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    1/18/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 48, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 35000, Vol 278075, AvTrSz: 5793
    Min. Pr: 0.3500, Max Pr: 0.3600, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3530
    # Buys, Shares: 23 94965, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3568
    # Sells, Shares: 25 183110, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3511
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.93 (34.2% "buys"), DlyShts 20530 (7.38%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 11.21%

    Little remarkable in today's stuff. With the falling volume and narrow price spread, we might do another short-term consolidation. We've had continued rising, albeit barely, lows with reducing highs, continuing a possible banner formation. AFAICT, my new short-term rising support is still in play, but price is right on it. The high did peek above the rising trading channel resistance. Of course, we have a long weekend in play, so I don't think we can place much emphasis on this Friday behavior.

    Regardless, oscillators I watch continue mixed, with only the RSI (still "overbought") and accumulation/distribution showing "strength". Momentum is still positive (1.07) but weakening. The others are also moving towards neutral.

    On my experimental stuff, it's pretty much as we could expect. Average trade size in the middle of what I think is retail, daily shorts starting the now-expected move higher, albeit slowly, volume a bit below averages, buy:sell vacillating in a pattern of "return to normalcy", and the experimental inflection point calculations are suggesting coming price weakness. As with above, a long weekend in play suggests we might not want to think too hard about this stuff.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    1/17/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 73, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 439978, AvTrSz: 6027
    Min. Pr: 0.3505, Max Pr: 0.3757, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3620
    # Buys, Shares: 36 168300, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3635
    # Sells, Shares: 36 268678, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3611
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 3000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3590
    Buy:Sell 1:1.60 (38.3% "buys"), DlyShts 29800 (6.77%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 11.09%

    On the traditional TA front, price broke above the resistance of the rising channel I've been tracking, hit my expected resistance of $0.37 and slightly beyond, retraced into the mid-$0.35 range and then staged a reasonable push back up into the close to finish the day at $0.36. I believe this move has some strength, based on the various VWAPs in summary above. The low honored my new short-term rising support, and it appears that in the next couple days price will either go below that line or above the rising trading channel resistance, which rises only about a penny a week.

    Recall that we appeared to have a "break out" of the rising trading channel confirmed 1/11-1/12 and then price moved back into that range 1/15, the next trading day. On 1/16 we then see the 614K, and another 100K, in two block trades go at $0.35. My working thought is an MM was accumulating shares to fill a big order (dollar value very near a quarter million) and was moving price around to accomplish that.

    This might be supported by the fact that on the day of the sale the VWAP buy was lower than the VWAP sell, one of only 18 occurrences, out of 237 trading days, since I began tracking. I need to go look at those other occurrences and see if any pattern is suggested.

    Anyway, the next day we have price move right back up on decent volume. In conjunction with all that, various oscillators I watch were affected in different ways, since they look at different things, and I don't think I can read much into the mixed signals they are sending ATM. The MACD lines are still in a bullish stance, but the histogram is weakening a bit. I'm suspecting this is a temporary condition, based on the trading I discussed above.

    On my experimental stuff, in summary, it seems things are returning to normal with volume back near typical ranges and daily short sales starting the normal push back up from the extreme lows.

    Average trade size is back to what seems mid-retail size while the buy:sell is below norms for now. Since price hit one of my resistance points ($0.37) I presume this is normal profit-taking. The buy:sell averages are moving in a positive direction though, suggesting that this "top" may be short-lived. We do need to keep in mind though that the 614K the other day trade was a buy and would skew the shorter-term buy:sell and trade size averages.

    My experimental inflection point calculations have been whipsawed, just like the other metrics. This caused them all to roll over, in what appears to be a start down, but I think we need to allow a couple days of more normal trading to get a reliable(?) read from them.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points omitted from the concentrator.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    1/16/13: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 52, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 614000, Vol 1005050, AvTrSz: 19328
    Min. Pr: 0.3475, Max Pr: 0.3600, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3505
    # Buys, Shares: 40 935950, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3504
    # Sells, Shares: 12 69100, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3518
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 13.54:1 (93.1% "buys"), DlyShts 33500 (3.33%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 48.48%

    Things of note suggest that any in-depth considerations would be a waste since abnormal forces are at work. A block trade of 614K at $0.35 was done, so average trade size is off the chart at 19,328. Today's buy:sell is a nice contrast to yesterday's 1:9.74 (today's "buys" of 93.1% vs 9.3% ).

    Without the big trade, daily shorts would be more normal. As it is, nothing seems to be worth considering.

    None of the usual TA or experimental stuff can be considered of use, IMO, in this situation because a general sentiment-based behavior is not being reflected in the price and volume or buy:sell or ...

    Well, you see how this is going. One of my shorter posts as I end by saying we have to let things start behaving normally before even I think there might be some use in reading the squiggles again.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    1/15/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator
    # Trds: 84, MinTrSz: 210, MaxTrSz: 200000, Vol 943341, AvTrSz: 11230
    Min. Pr: 0.3470, Max Pr: 0.3789, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3597
    # Buys, Shares: 26 87845, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3659
    # Sells, Shares: 58 855496, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3591
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:9.74 (9.3%), DlyShts 5957 (5.96%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 0.70%

    Daily short sales of 5,957 are similar to what we've seen recently after high-volume days. As usual, I believe the Mms are short-term long from their activities in the prior days and releasing to the market the shares that flow in from prior sell orders. This seems rational given today's action.

    Well, our "confirmation" of a break out yesterday got trashed today. It's not that the move was so big or horrendous - only closed down $0.0158. It's just they way it was done. Started off looking like another reasonable day with an early range of $0.3601-$0.3789 through 09:57. Then some weakness came in with a 40K trade, a "sell" at $0.3576. From there to 10:37 we stepped quickly to trade mostly in the low-$0.35 range, with only two trades at $0.36, and ended that leg at $0.3470 at 10:31. From then through 14:13 it looked like we had recovered as we traded 18 times for 31,372 shares at a VWAP of $0.3595.

    Then things changed with a big 200K trade at $0.3626. Rather than recount all that, read the series of comments beginning here. Summarizing, it's like someone opened the flood gates of stop-losses as through the EOD (and one 300 share AH trade at $0.355) we traded 544.7K at a VWAP of $0.361. But there were periods included that were worse, detailed in those comments.

    Overall, not really a horrible day, even considering the 4.26% decline, when you think about where we've come from recently (a low of $0.2751 on 1/2/13) with only a sideways pause on the way up. As LT posted in APC # 196, "Don't get worried or surprised at selling into the rally, many have purchased shares at .25-.28 and they may sell off trading blocks for a 50%+ gain. We also have politics on the debt ceiling that may encourage some to profit take along with a % of their holdings. This should be taken as "normal". Not negative, and maybe just sound investing/profit taking".

    OK, on to the "normal" stuff. On the traditional TA front, we closed just below the resistance line of my rising trading channel, which seems to have been confirmed since 11/13/12. We were aware that it might move back inside the channel (which we don't yet know for sure has happened) and if it has, I now have some dry powder for acquisition if we get back around $0.33 to increase my position, if I don't blow it elsewhere first. This seems likely with the falling 200-day SMA at $0.3266, and the rising 50-day at $0.2891, and the rising channel support at $0.30 (AFAICT and rising ~$0.01/week), and my experimental Bollingers having a big spread (upper $0.3805 and lower $0.2661, suggesting a likely move to mid-range - today at $0.3223), and the standard 20-period Bollingers ranging from $0.2492-$9.3695, suggesting a move to a mid-point of $0.3094 (today).

    In spite of today's "weakness", it wasn't enough to actually move any of the oscillators substantially out of their bullish areas. All of them rolled over and I do believe we've finally started the re-trace which must occur, sooner or later, after a big run up. A target around $0.325 seems reasonable, considering the range of the run. This would be nothing more than a "reversion to the mean" of the leg from the low of 1/2 to the high of 1/11.

    I swear, this is sure starting to look a lot like a "grind up" scenario.

    The MACD shows a little weakness in the histogram and the signal line flattened while the average continues to rise. Too early to say "OMG"!

    A big CORRECTION is needed on my comments about my experimental inflection point calculations on the chart at the bottom of the three-part chart in my instablog. I had stated that it was suggesting a move up was still possible while the other two versions said "down". What I didn't realize until I began setting up the chart for today was that I hadn't updated that chart to pick up the new data points when I was writing yesterday's EOD comments. It had also begun to show the earliest signs of a possible decline, once it picked up the new data. So all three charts agreed.

    No comment on the average trade size today as we had a couple outliers that moved the size up into beyond normal retail sizes I think. You can see that it hit the "cap" suggested by a trend line I had added with only two prior touch points.

    The buy percentage wasn't the worst ever, but it's in the lead pack - the lowest ever was 6.4%. All three versions of the experimental inflection point calculations are hollering "down", which they began hinting at two days ago.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    1/14/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 138, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol 684858, AvTrSz: 4963
    Min. Pr: 0.3650, Max Pr: 0.3775, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3710
    # Buys, Shares: 97 406182, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3723
    # Sells, Shares: 41 278676, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3691
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.46:1 (59.3% "buys"), DlyShts 78000 (11.39%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 27.99%

    Pretty good day. There were only a few negatives, IMO, one of which is that we did have some trades, with volume, below $0.37. 82,476 shares, 12.04% of day's volume, traded $0.3650-$0.3690 with a VWAP of $0.3665. Not bad but it was a noticeable portion of the volume and was in the lower part of the range. 524,882 shares, 76.64% of volume, traded $0.3700-$0.3749 with a VWAP of $0.3709, again in the lower range. Finally, 77,500 shares, 11.32%, traded $0.3750-$0.3775 with a VWAP of $0.3762, in the higher range.

    Another negative is that we made a lower high. But considered in light of the nice run since 1/2 and the two recent pops, this is not too distressing. We are doing what should be done - starting into a short-term pause or consolidation. Since we had really decent volume, ~59% over yesterday's 25-day average, on an up day, I don't see this as suggesting any big downward pressure yet.

    Read the following keeping in mind that we are coming of some positive PR. The immediate large effects of this tend to dissipate over a three or four day period. We then start looking for longer-term sustainability of the sentiment in terms of less radical indications.

    The MACD that Drich brought to our attention continues to improve: +0.018 and +0.011 for the signal and average lines and the histogram keeps improving, now at +0.008. I wouldn't be surprised to see the histogram exceed the recent top seen around the first week in December.

    This is our fifth day trading completely ABOVE the 200-day SMA, currently at $0.3288. The 200-day should continue to decline, but at a reduced rate since we have moved into a higher price range. The 50-day SMA, $0.2878, has begun to go parabolic and will accelerate unless we have a big price drop. The 10-day SMA will cross above the 200-day tomorrow. The 20-day is only a few days behind unless price weakens substantially.

    We've started "pushing" my experimental upper Bollinger again and are also pushing the standard 20-day. The upper and lower are diverging, suggesting the possibility of higher volatility. On my experimental ones, a move back to mid-point would put us in the $0.30xx range. Considering context, I think the lower will start to turn up first, suggesting some price higher for the mid-point if a re-trace begins.

    I'm of a mind that the 200-day SMA will likely provide some support if we do re-trace. This would also be supported by a short-term (low of 1/2 through high of 1/11) "reversion to the mean" to ~$0.3275.

    As with yesterday, all the oscillators that have an overbought area are in that area. Normally folks start being concerned this suggests a pullback is likely soon. But looking at thing in total, I think this is one of those cases where it can stay in this state for some time. Maybe some readings and reasoning will clarify why I think this is possible.

    First, in the RSI we have a big positive divergence. Last time we were around this price range, while in the bottom of the cup formed Feb. through Mar. of last year, RSI was down in the 30 range. We are now at 86.23. This is right up there with the maximum reading of 89.43 on 1/11/12 when price was $0.47-$0.58 and running up to a high of $0.64 on 1/26 and 1/27/12. Even with today's price and volume action, momentum is still at ~1.22, slightly weaker than yesterday's ~1.31. Considering the volume difference, not yet a big concern. One I really like is that ADX is above 30 at 36. This is supposedly an indication of strong and continued bullish sentiment and is supported by the fact that DI- is now down to 5 while DI+ is at 41, quite a bullish reading. Leaving the other oscillators behind ...

    After bumping off the rising trading channel's resistance on 1/7 and 1/8, we broke above it on 1/11 when it read, AFAICT, ~$0.355. We traded completely above it again today on good volume - a supposed confirmation that we had a "break out". We could still end up back in it if we trade sideways for a while, but I expect it will act as support, a traditional role-reversal that accompanies a confirmed break past a trend line.

    On my experimental charts, average trade size continues choppy, today being around the low side of average retail, I think, and below it averages. Buy:sell is acting normally, coming off a "peak" and moving back towards a more normal ratio. The buy percentage averages are still rising. As seen so many times, daily short sales percentage spike are followed by trends lower. Considering recent trading volume and short volumes and percentages, looks completely normal and I'm not concerned with it's action right now.

    My original inflection point calculations - the "flaky" one - suggests that upward pressure has abated. It's not suggesting down movement yet - just a weakening in the upward pressure. My newer ones, especially the top one on the three-part chart, agrees with the "flake". But the bottom on that three-part chart, suggests more upside is coming. By way of explanation, they are attempts to incorporate price-sensitivity two different ways. It'll be instructive to see which ends up being "better" this time.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    1/11/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 217, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol 1213987, AvTrSz: 5594
    Min. Pr: 0.3370, Max Pr: 0.3800, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.3620
    # Buys, Shares: 162 837953, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3632
    # Sells, Shares: 55 376034, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3595
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.23:1 (69% "buys"), DlyShts 198230 (16.33%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 52.72%

    With today's news that the last skids of batteries for the $475K NSC order had shipped in December, we had a pop on the news that took us as high as $0.38, +12.96%. As mentioned many times I had expected resistance at $0.35, which seems to have occurred, and $0.37. For today, anyway, $0.37 seems to have been resistance and the $0.38 is an overshoot.

    I base this on the relative behavior of the price and volumes. $0.38 accounted for 2 trades totaling 10K shares, 1 trade of 5K @ $0.3799, 5 trades totaling 22K at $0.3790, 2 trades of 19.5K at $0.3720. All told, these 56.5K shares were 4.65% of the day's total. This isn't to say the run up is over, but to advise caution in that just looking at the charts would tell a different story than can be seen from these numbers. But as the first concrete news in a long time that confirms NSC's commitment to AXPW's batteries - and it got wide distribution as it appeared on many news channels due to NSC's mention in the PR - it could be that this will begin a push up in share price. Just don't know, but see below.

    Continuing a break down, we see 72.25K traded at $0.37 (5.95%), 311.9K (25.69%) at $0.3650-$0.3699, 566.8K (46.69%) at $0.3600-$0.3649, 53.7K (4.43%) at $0.3550-$0.3559, 31.1K (2.56%) at $0.3500-$0.3540, 24.3K (2%) at $0.3460-$0.3498, 82.9K (6.83%) at $0.3400-$0.3450, and 14.5K (1.19%) below $0.34.

    The high was hit at 14:36 after trending fairly steadily up since the open. After the high we hit $0.37 by 14:54 and never got above that afterward. The total volume after the highs were hit was 501.1K, 41.27% of volume.

    So I conclude that $0.37 did provide resistance and ...

    The question becomes "does it have legs?". Generally real news will sustain a "pop" 2-3 days and then begin a re-trace to at least some small degree. But with APC readers likely suspecting that the shipments had been made, or at least having confidence that they would be, I think buying pressure has to come from those awaiting confirmation, those awaiting strong price appreciation and those that were previously pretty much unaware of Axion and its developing relationships.

    Will there be enough folks interested in a penny stock - e.g. NSC longs who would have also likely seen the news - to come in and take what is generally considered a high-risk position? I can't say. Will one of the "pump rags" pick up on it an entice a bunch of "fast money" traders to jump on it? Does the news suggest substantially reduced risk to the degree that some awaiting that situation will jump? Stay tuned.

    On the traditional TA front, all I'll say about the oscillators I watch is that a big price move on decent volume (about triple the 25-day average) had the effect one would expect. Everything that has an "overbought" area is there.

    The close ($0.365) was a bit above my ascending trading channel resistance line (~$0.356). The big thing I'll watch for over the next couple days is a tendency to either move further above that line (rising about $0.01/week) or indications it wants to move back into the channel.

    On my experimental stuff, the average trade size seems much lower than I would judge it to be from watching trades in close proximity that I would bet were a single trade. The charted size looks to be near the mid-range of what I would call retail while I would judge us to actually be near the top of that range. But we don't want to go ignoring real data and favoring subjective assessments here.

    The 10-day buy percentage had been improving steadily since mid-December and it has now moved above a falling top trend line I had recently added. The other 3 averages have also started to move up. So regardless of today's action there seems to have been a building bullish sentiment.

    On my experimental inflection point calculations, all periods bu the 25-day are above zero. This creates a pattern, which began to form in mid-December and generally seemed to strengthen subsequently, precisely like others that have resulted in short-term strong price rises. I'll now switch to watching for any indications of weakening, rather than strengthening.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points stuff are in the latest daily post above.

    1/10/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 39, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 151803, AvTrSz: 3892
    Min. Pr: 0.3304, Max Pr: 0.3393, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3347
    # Buys, Shares: 23 111529, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3353
    # Sells, Shares: 16 40274, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3330
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.77:1 (73.5% "buys"), DlyShts 14641 (9.64%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 36.35%

    So far, price and volume behaving well (meaning as I expected), which gives me comfort.

    On the traditional TA front, we have extreme price compression with a low and high that are "flat" (high actually +$0.0001 up today) while volume is off ~15%, continuing the expected fall-off. Recall that yesterday was the sixth day of "pushing" my experimental upper Bollinger and today we got separation. The upper and lower have a wide spread still and the price targets mentioned yesterday, $0.31/$0.305 still seem reasonable if we take a week to do a "reversion to the mean". All the oscillators I watch have shown the first signs of weakness, but are just starting to roll over, except the ADX continues to climb - now 27 from 23 - even as the DI+ weakens to 29 from 30. ADX doesn't care about which is stronger - it just works absolute values.

    We are still above the descending 200-day SMA (many more days of falling in store without a big "pop" into the mid-$0.4x range) and the 50-day SMA continues to rise. If price holds in this range the rise will accelerate noticeably in less than a week,

    Trading range is dropping away from our rising trading channel's resistance, as expected for now.

    The MACD continues to gain, showing +0.007 and +0.012 for the average and signal respectively and the histogram has gone flat. Not surprising at all on relatively flat short-term price and short-term falling volume on a long-term plot.

    On my experimental stuff, the daily short sales began to recover in terms of both absolute volume and percentage. The average trade size recovered a minuscule amount, remaining at the very bottom of what I believe is typical retail trading range. The buy:sell remains strong even sans price appreciation. I think the reasons are as I stated yesterday - market-makers doing their thing after our recent strong price move up accompanied by large daily short sales swings suggesting they are momentarily long low-cost shares ATM.

    My experimental inflection point calculations still have the 5-day value weakening. It hasn't yet reached the level that makes me feel strongly that a move down is in the works, but if it continues a bit longer and the other periods start to weaken, I think we'll have a signal. This should occur in conjunction with continued (and substantial?) increase in daily short sales, both volume and percentage if there's much trading volume, when the market-maker long positions are about sapped.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points in the latest daily post above.

    1/9/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 56, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 179487, AvTrSz: 3205
    Min. Pr: 0.3304, Max Pr: 0.3392, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3361
    # Buys, Shares: 48 162736, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3359
    # Sells, Shares: 8 16751, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3373
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 9.72:1 (90.7% "buys"), DlyShts 8800 (4.90%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 52.53%

    The comments linked below were all in APC # 195 and you may have seen them already.

    I commented about what I thought was unusual activity today, including what I thought was an unusually large ATDF ask. My real concern was whether what I was seeing might suggest very low short sales today. MrI corrected me on the ask size just below that comment and when daily shorts were available I posted a comment suggesting maybe I have learned something useful.

    I'll avoid repeating much of what's in those comments.

    On the traditional TA front, it looks like we may be starting a "reversion to the mean", after a decent rise from the low of $0.2751 1/2/13 to the high of $0.348 yesterday, 1/9/13. This would dictate a ~$0.31 target and, likely, a little overshoot to around $0.30x. It's very early to suspect this action but there are several supporting indicators.

    First is that we appear to actually have entered that rising trading channel I've been suspecting was forming. We have the rising support origin (low of 11/13), touches at the lows of 11/21 and12/27/12-1/3/13 followed by a move up off that line. We then encounter the rising resistance originated at the high of 11/14 with touches at the highs of 11/27-8, trades at and above 11/3/12-12/6/12 (then price was "pushed" back into the channel by my newer long-term descending resistance lines) and more touches at the highs of 1/7-1/8 followed by the first day of what I believe will be a down leg.

    If my take on what's going on with the market-makers holds any water, this seems a very likely behavior. Any positive PR could destroy the scenario, of course. More on market-makers later.

    Anyway, since we have, including the origins, 4 touches of the resistance and three touches of the support and what seems to be the start of a leg down, I'm feeling strongly that we have established a rising trading channel. My long-desired "grind up" may have materialized!

    With a slope of ~$0.01/week, if we take a week and make a full "leg down", the target price would be ~$0.3050, where the rising support would be encountered. This fits well with a "reversion to the mean" scenario. But do not be surprised if a full re-trace doesn't happen (ignoring my take on the short sales implications). If a turn in sentiment is in progress it is relatively common for only a partial leg down to be done before reversing. This is often seen as a bullish indicator, but I've seen it fail to rise above the resistance about as often as it does rise above.

    This completed the sixth day of "pushing" my experimental upper Bollinger band, which matches the recent behavior prior to a re-trace. All the oscillators I track have gone flat, many in the overbought range, except ADX, which rose to 23 while DI- is flat down at 8 and DI+ weakened from 32 to 23.

    The MACD is still strengthening, up to 0.011 and 0.006 on the signal and average respectively. Being a long-term oscillator, this is not in conflict with a short-term retrace scenario nor a rising trading channel.

    Today had an opportunity to apparently confirm part of my understanding about market-makers, JP's thoughts that there is double counting, and one of the scenarios that don't generate short sales. I posted a comment identifying activity I thought related to my trade. When the trade confirmation came available, I believe another small piece of the puzzle(s) were filled in, as detailed in my response to that comment, which follows immediately after the prior link.

    On my experimental stuff, average trade size was below what I think is normal retail size - as JP mentioned in the past, market-makers working hard to make the trades. But note that when we saw this same situation in early December we took a leg down and, as I noted above, I think that's what is beginning again now. Also in that period we had a relatively strong buy:sell ratio along with lower volume and today was relatively low volume which was well below all my averages.

    My experimental inflection calculations have begun to show weakness in the 5-day version. This appears in the original version and the two new modified versions which include some attempts at greater sensitivity with fewer false indications.

    Past instances of this suggest we get some sideways movement before any big drop comes about and this indicator would continue to weaken substantially if a drop is likely.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    1/8/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 79, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 28300, Vol 464487, AvTrSz: 5880
    Min. Pr: 0.3300, Max Pr: 0.3480, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3369
    # Buys, Shares: 49 288695, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3382
    # Sells, Shares: 29 165792, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3344
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3423
    Buy:Sell 1.74:1 (62.2% "buys"), DlyShts 127965 (27.55%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 77.18%

    Traded above, and closed above the 200-day SMA of $0.3295 at EOD. Range continues to depart from rising support of potential rising trading channel and, so far, is being restrained by the rising resistance of that channel, which slopes up about $0.01/week.

    All the oscillators I watch have a definite bullish slope either developing or already there. In the "there" category: RSI 77 (highest since 1/26/12's 77.77 and a BIG positive divergence from prior instances of trading in this range); accumulation held well at 0.548 considering yesterday's reduced (but still improved from recent averages) volume that we'd expect after a decent price move and big volume the prior day; MFI ~86.7; Williams %R holding flattish at ~-18.4, a decent reading; stochastic remains in overbought with readings of 80+ on the %D and 81+ on the signal line (%K); ADX up to 18 from 1/3's 11 and the DI- continues to weaken at 8 while the DI+ moves to 32; momentum up to 1.16+.

    The MACD DRich brought to our attention recently continues it's improvement - now +0.004 and +0.009 for the average and signal lines respectively and accelerating upwards.

    Normally I would expect a few days of sideways here, but with such readings I'm unsure if that will happen. We have three of the SMAs, 10, 20 and 50, "in order" and rising and the PSAR, which I normally don't mention (lack of trust), rising.

    A note on my $0.33, $0.35 and $0.37 price points seems in order. These are not points traditional TAs would identify as critical points. I use them because they are demonstrated strong points of "consolidation" or "churn" highs and lows and I know that they often present the same behavior when again encountered. With this in mind, normally it appears that the current $0.33-0.34x (which will become $0.35 IMO) should offer the same behavior as in the past, with the difference being that the current oscillator and SMA readings and rising trading channel (if I've correctly identified it) suggest a break up instead of down. ATM I'm leaning towards little or no sideways movement before continuing to move up. Once we pass $0.37 we should be free to run to ~0.42 and then ~$0.45-$0.47+ with no other observable resistance points on a one-year chart.

    Having said that, since I believe we have more traders in our market now, I wouldn't be surprised to see some halting progression as we move towards those points as folks trading with percentage-gain targets take their profits. It is this that I believe will cause confirmation of the rising trading channel, eventually, as the legs up and down caused by traders will come to the fore. The channel spread is around $0.06 so you can see that at current price levels that's a nice percentage spread, which will make it hard for traders to resist playing the swings.

    CAVEAT: A break above the rising resistance will likely leave them wailing in the dust about missed upside. I'll be wailing too as I'll have to try and ID the new rising channel or a big pop in progress - hard to know which.

    On my experimental charts, everything's coming up roses except that the average trade size remains slightly into the lower end of what I think is "retail". I don't know - maybe this is the "new normal" with such ATDF, TEJS, NITE and others playing in our sandbox now. Daily shorts are behaving as expected, buy:sell in normal range and my new experimental inflection point calculations continue to suggest more upside is in store near-term.

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points stuf in the latest daily post above.

    1/7/2013

    : EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 154, MinTrSz: 125, MaxTrSz: 220000, Vol 1460809, AvTrSz: 9486
    Min. Pr: 0.3013, Max Pr: 0.3449, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.3228
    # Buys, Shares: 101 903444, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3227
    # Sells, Shares: 52 547365, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3234
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3049
    Buy:Sell 1.65:1 (61.8% "buys"), DlyShts 246800 (16.89%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 45.09%

    Just because I mentioned it yesterday - don't know if it has utility - the daily short sales percentage of "buys" today was 27.32%.

    Daily short sales were strong, on a stand-alone volume basis, but as I suspected, not quite so strong on a percentage basis. This says either a lot of trades were intra/inter-broker (most likely intra) and/or MMs selling into the market were long in their portfolios (some from shares flowing in backing some of the 183.79K shorted on 1/2 when we had high volume and a VWAP of $0.2955, some of which likely were covered by some MMs in the subsequent trading days?). I suspect we also had some longs "pulled" into selling, based on the "break" from the high of $0.3449 at 14:19 to a lower price of $0.33 at 14:36. We did briefly get to $0.3232 at 14:42 but came right back to just below $0.33 immediately. Including that high and onward, the buy:sell was 1:1.14 - reasonably well balanced - and the VWAP was $0.3318.

    An unusual feature today was a VWAP buy price lower than the VWAP sell price. Haven't seen this since 12/11 when we had $0.2939 and $0.2967 for those two respectively. That was a down day on high (for that period) volume.

    On the traditional TA front, I'll be briefer than normal. Another day of higher lows, highs and close. Bullishness indications in the oscillators I watch continues to improve (see prior posts for some comparisons): RSI 75.31 (overbought territory and highest since 1/26/2012 - we have a "positive divergence" compared to other times we were in this price range and getting a little rise), accum/distr continues improvement to -2.65 (1 year chart), MFI 85.02 (overbought territory), momentum ~1.14, Williams %R weakens slightly to -21.8 (*not* bearish - just moving to less extreme), stochastic in overbought, ADX's DI- down to 9 with DI+ up to 34. We need to see ADX creep to 30+ to have it suggest continuing strength is likely.

    We continue to have the trading range pull above and away from the now-rising 50-day SMA, $0.2815, and we had an "overshoot" (from the perspective my expected $0.33 resistance) to $0.3449 (exceeding the 200-day SMA of $0.3299 at EOD), a pullback and, finally, a close just $0.0002 below it - $0.3297. I commented early that we were at risk of blowing right past the expected $0.33 resistance. I don't know whether to stroke my ego because $0.33 did what I thought it would or rue the fact that we couldn't just gallop on up to the $0.35 next resistance I expect (was the high of $0.3449 close enough? Nah - it was just an "overshoot"!).

    Trading range also continues a "departure pattern" regarding my rising trading channel support and traded all day above one of those two new long-term descending resistance lines I had recently established. It traded above the other from 11:07 forward.

    The range and close both exceeded the traditional 20-period upper Bollinger limit today. This argues for a move back to a more centered attitude, especially since the lower limit is still descending. I make this guess only because the "pinch" of the upper and lower limits never got all that tight. I'm not calling for that move yet - too many other things suggest it won't happen right away. If it did we'd likely see ~$0.2925 or so.

    We have the fourth day of price "pushing" my experimental 13-period upper Bollinger. Will we make six straight, as we did the last two times? Stay tuned to find out! It's looking quite likely even if we don't push strongly up right away.

    The MACD that Drich brought to our attention continues it's improvement - +0.007 and +0.003 on the signal and average respectively.

    Finished up 7.75%. This all on volume nearing five times the average volumes I posted yesterday for all the periods.

    The inflection point calculations continue to improve.

    Detailed discussions of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points omitted from the concentrator.

    Inflection point calculation stuff is in the latest daily post above.

    1/7/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 154, MinTrSz: 125, MaxTrSz: 220000, Vol 1460809, AvTrSz: 9486
    Min. Pr: 0.3013, Max Pr: 0.3449, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.3228
    # Buys, Shares: 101 903444, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3227
    # Sells, Shares: 52 547365, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3234
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3049
    Buy:Sell 1.65:1 (61.8% "buys"), DlyShts 246800 (16.89%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 45.09%

    Just because I mentioned it yesterday - don't know if it has utility - the daily short sales percentage of "buys" today was 27.32%.

    Daily short sales were strong, on a stand-alone volume basis, but as I suspected, not quite so strong on a percentage basis. This says either a lot of trades were intra/inter-broker (most likely intra) and/or MMs selling into the market were long in their portfolios (some from shares flowing in backing some of the 183.79K shorted on 1/2 when we had high volume and a VWAP of $0.2955, some of which likely were covered by some MMs in the subsequent trading days?). I suspect we also had some longs "pulled" into selling, based on the "break" from the high of $0.3449 at 14:19 to a lower price of $0.33 at 14:36. We did briefly get to $0.3232 at 14:42 but came right back to just below $0.33 immediately. Including that high and onward, the buy:sell was 1:1.14 - reasonably well balanced - and the VWAP was $0.3318.

    An unusual feature today was a VWAP buy price lower than the VWAP sell price. Haven't seen this since 12/11 when we had $0.2939 and $0.2967 for those two respectively. That was a down day on high (for that period) volume.

    On the traditional TA front, I'll be briefer than normal. Another day of higher lows, highs and close. Bullishness indications in the oscillators I watch continues to improve (see prior posts for some comparisons): RSI 75.31 (overbought territory and highest since 1/26/2012 - we have a "positive divergence" compared to other times we were in this price range and getting a little rise), accum/distr continues improvement to -2.65 (1 year chart), MFI 85.02 (overbought territory), momentum ~1.14, Williams %R weakens slightly to -21.8 (*not* bearish - just moving to less extreme), stochastic in overbought, ADX's DI- down to 9 with DI+ up to 34. We need to see ADX creep to 30+ to have it suggest continuing strength is likely.

    We continue to have the trading range pull above and away from the now-rising 50-day SMA, $0.2815, and we had an "overshoot" (from the perspective my expected $0.33 resistance) to $0.3449 (exceeding the 200-day SMA of $0.3299 at EOD), a pullback and, finally, a close just $0.0002 below it - $0.3297. I commented early that we were at risk of blowing right past the expected $0.33 resistance. I don't know whether to stroke my ego because $0.33 did what I thought it would or rue the fact that we couldn't just gallop on up to the $0.35 next resistance I expect (was the high of $0.3449 close enough? Nah - it was just an "overshoot"!).

    Trading range also continues a "departure pattern" regarding my rising trading channel support and traded all day above one of those two new long-term descending resistance lines I had recently established. It traded above the other from 11:07 forward.

    The range and close both exceeded the traditional 20-period upper Bollinger limit today. This argues for a move back to a more centered attitude, especially since the lower limit is still descending. I make this guess only because the "pinch" of the upper and lower limits never got all that tight. I'm not calling for that move yet - too many other things suggest it won't happen right away. If it did we'd likely see ~$0.2925 or so.

    We have the fourth day of price "pushing" my experimental 13-period upper Bollinger. Will we make six straight, as we did the last two times? Stay tuned to find out! It's looking quite likely even if we don't push strongly up right away.

    The MACD that Drich brought to our attention continues it's improvement - +0.007 and +0.003 on the signal and average respectively.

    Finished up 7.75%. This all on volume nearing five times the average volumes I posted yesterday for all the periods.

    The inflection point calculations continue to improve.

    Detailed discussions of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points omitted from the concentrator.

    Since I've mentioned the normal stuff, I'll just add the new stuff I've been showing here.

    Rolling 5-day aggregate percentage change:
    ***** ****** 5 Day* 10 Day* ***25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200
    12/21 1 Day__ 0.0435 0.1069 -0.0279 -0.0381 -0.1986 0.0769
    12/24 2 Day__ 0.4105 0.1188 +0.0759 +0.0995 -0.1108 0.1135
    12/26 3 Day__ 0.8424 0.3386 +0.0634 +0.1819 +0.1608 0.1527
    12/27 4 Day__ 0.6542 0.2573 -0.2106 +0.1426 +0.1609 0.1070
    12/28 5 Day__ 0.9927 0.3289 -0.4495 +0.1258 +0.3797 0.1237
    12/31 5 Day__ 1.1121 0.3664 -0.3321 +0.1933 +0.5376 0.1059
    01/02 5 Day__ 1.7311 0.8801 -0.0558 +0.2866 +0.9093 0.3548
    01/03 5 Day__ 2.8928 1.1418 -0.4169 +0.2347 +0.8716 0.3026
    01/04 5 Day__ 2.5147 1.1596 -0.1110 +0.3407 +1.0791 0.4436
    01/07 5 Day 115.9265 1.8286 +0.3990 +0.4807 +2.1187 0.6169
    Average % change/day, 5 days
    *5 Day 10 Day *25 Day 50 Day 100 Da 200 Day
    0.1985 0.0658 -0.0899 0.0252 0.0759 0.0247
    0.2137 0.0519 -0.0609 0.0463 0.1472 0.0058
    0.2641 0.1523 -0.0263 0.0374 0.2040 0.0483
    0.4101 0.1606 -0.0961 0.0106 0.1422 0.0300
    0.3721 0.1805 -0.0199 0.0396 0.1836 0.0673
    22.9868 0.2999 +0.1697 0.0710 0.3478 0.0987

    I encourage those with an interest to look at the charts and notice the prior patterns similar to the current one and the resulting price activity.

    Following omitted from the concentrator.

    Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
    Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64% 139.27%
    Mon. 10/22: 194.20% 19.54% 25.53% 15.21% 15.17%
    Wed. 10/31: 62.24% 149.46% 39.90%
    Mon. 11/05: 30.92% 7.61% 6.98% 3.53% 10.10%
    Mon. 11/12: 4.01% 116.57% 30.19% 16.71% 39.58%
    Mon. 11/19: 14.90% 3.88% 259.67% T'gvg Day 8.97% (1/2 day)
    Mon. 11/26: 65.57% 142.31% 59.83% 11.20% 69.26%
    Mon. 12/03: 29.97% 13.19% 10.55% 15.57% 40.42%
    Mon. 12/10: 3.59% 9.24% 135.35% 6.19% 12.73%
    Mon. 12/17: 26.17% 8.82% 44.97% 3.63% 15.11%
    Mon. 12/24: 258.33% 92.71% 31.98% 1.54%
    Mon. 12/31: 14.36% H'lday 262.58% 6.39% 131.03%
    Mon. 01/07: 45.09%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
    Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%

    ============ 2013 ===============
    Jan Avg: 111.27%, min: 6.39%, max: 262.58%

    Dly Sht % of 'sells' values are in the latest daily post above.

    1/4/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 60, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 40765, Vol 333439, AvTrSz: 5557
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3097, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.3046
    # Buys, Shares: 47 236682, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3047
    # Sells, Shares: 13 96757, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3046
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.45:1 (71.0% "buys"), DlyShts 126782 (%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 131.03%

    Well, as I suggested earlier, the daily short sales came back strong, although I didn't expect this much increase to be shown with today's volume, which is just "average" when you look at the averages, in thousands, of 309, 337, 311 and 361 for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages respectively. Later in the day when I saw the VWAP holding up well I did start to doubt my earlier assessment though because I knew some longs would be enticed to sell and, more importantly IMO, some market-makers would be enticed (or "forced"?) to short to increase profit potential or protect their positions from excess damage.

    The short sales constitute 53.57% of today's "buys". I've been mulling for some time if this might be even more useful than the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" now. This is because, as opposed to the tendency to "hit the bid" when the "big uglies" were around and heavily selling, the tendency now should be for MMs to short more aggressively on price appreciation, especially if volume is there. It might also reflect my originally-posited "pull" effect by enticing longs to sell, also causing short sales in most(?) cases.

    Moving to traditional TA, we now have the third consecutive day of higher highs and lows. The lows have begun to pull above and away from the short-term ascending support begun at the low of 11/13, which I have detailed before and last adjusted around a week(?) ago. This is the same line that caused me to speculate very early on that we might be entering a rising trading channel. We also continue to "push" my experimental upper Bollinger and, if recent past behavior holds, should have another three days or so of this. That's not considering any knock-on effects from today's PR about the PC's UL certification being issued and (hopefully soon?) follow-on Rosewater PR. The traditional 20-period Bollinger bands continue to converge, albeit quite slowly for now.

    Something I seldom mention, the PSAR (Parabolic SAR) flipped to bullish mode today.

    The close today was above the two new long-term descending resistance lines I recently added. We also, AFAICT, traded at or above the lower one. I'll detail these only in my instablog, for those with an interest, so that they can duplicate them and judge for themselves. This will spare folks without an interest.

    We've solidly left the 50-day SMA, $0.2808 today, behind. Since we did have price appreciation today, we won't get the second day of falling 50-day SMA I suggested yesterday. Instead, it has started to rise (+$0.0002 today over yesterday) and unless price falls tomorrow, the 50-day SMA will continue to slowly rise for at least a couple days more.

    Last, the potential C & H (Cup & Handle) pattern formation I mentioned yesterday continues to shape up nicely. When (and if) we hit a high around $0.3179-$0.3199, we will have the right-side "rim" in place and it could be either a "jumping off point" or the start of the handle formation, which can form either in a concave or convex form (that is, "sag" lower initially or "bubble" up initially, either one after a possible very short sideways movement).

    The MACD, which DRich brought to our attention a short while ago, continues to strengthen - now reading 0.004 and 0.002 for the signal and average lines respectively.

    In summary, the long-term down trend seems certainly at risk of being broken.

    On my experimental stuff we see the low, the high and the VWAP all above all averages except the 200-day SMA. This trending up has been three consecutive days now. The VWAP 25-day SMA has crossed above the 100-day, as I mentioned it would yesterday. The 10-day should cross both of those tomorrow, leaving only the 50-day and 200-day "out of order".

    I want to also mention that the calculated long-term linear trend lines continue to lose correlation. This is a result of the price movement being of sufficient magnitude that the daily new calculations can't "keep up". They have weakened further from their highs of 80%-82% to 77%-78% now.

    Buy:sell, and the averages, are solidly back where they belong now. Only average trade size remains in a weak area.

    Regarding my experimental inflection point calculations I'll only say that they continue to support movement upward, as first suggested again just before Christmas. As I mentioned later, that first rise was weak and short-lived and I expected the new set-up, which came around right near the EOY, to be stronger and more sustainable. In support of that, the 100-day period closed above zero at 51.51, placing it in positive territory with the 5 and 10-day readings. The 50 and 200-day calculations are also on the rise. Only the 25-day is still fighting the trend. This is setting up to suggest a very strong upward movement, IMO.

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", new trend lines discussion and inflection points detailed discussions omitted from the concentrator.

    First, I established my two new descending trend lines from two points because there's the "traditional" way of taking the origin of the highest high before an up-trend is broke and my experimental way of establishing the origin at the last high leaving a consolidation and starting entry to a new down trend. This put the origin of the more steeply descending resistance at the high of 4/30/12, $0.47. My experimental one originates at the high of 5/14/12, $0.428. Both lines have "touches" at the highs of 12/3-12/6 and 12/17. As we've attempted to move above, new touches occurred 1/2 for the first line and 1/3 for the second. If we continue making the "cup", both of these are departing the scene.

    The inflection point calculations continue to improve. Since I've mentioned the normal stuff, I'll just add the new stuff I've been showing here.

    Rolling 5-day aggregate percentage change in latest post up top.

    Dly Sht % of 'sells' values found in the last daily post up top.

    1/3/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.

    # Trds: 39, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 17000, Vol 178207, AvTrSz: 4569
    Min. Pr: 0.2951, Max Pr: 0.3094, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3015
    # Buys, Shares: 20 41100, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3034
    # Sells, Shares: 16 116607, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3015
    # Unkn, Shares: 3 20500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2976
    Buy:Sell 1:2.84 (23.1% "buys"), DlyShts 7450 (4.18%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 6.39%

    Daily short sales doing the usual yo-yo: very low again today. Considering the buy:sell I'm guessing the market-maker(s) had plenty of shares flowing in from recent activity at lower prices short sales at lower prices. Here's some VWAP prices, which I believe the MMs work off of as well: $0.2840, $0.2854, $0.2813, $0.2807, $0.2803, $0.2783, $0.2882, $0.2896, $0.2831, $0.2870, $0.2840 and $0.2955. This would also, IMO, account for the bad buy:sell ratio as the MM could hit the bid quite a bit and still make money with yesterday's and today's VWAP.

    Looking at the traditional TA stuff, I'm feeling decent about what I see. First, we had higher a low and high and closed almost flat - $0.3047 vs. Today's $0.3043. Considering volume, not bad. Although we didn't get the confirmation of the run up taking hold, we didn't break it yet either.

    Every oscillator I watch continued to essentially hold flat or improve in spite of the low volume: RSI dropped only ~0.04, accum/distribution improved ~0.08, MFI ~+11 to bullish now at ~53.5, momentum down ~0.017 to ~1.09, stochastic continues to rise and ADX holds flat while its components improve to -DI down two to 13 and DI+ is up one to 20.

    The MACD Drich has been watching has now moved positive to +0.002 and +0.03 for the average and signal readings respectively.

    The two new long-term descending resistances I added yesterday are, again, right atop the price. That didn't stop the price range from moving slightly higher though. Further, the medium term rising trend I established starting at the low of 11/13, which caused me to suggest we might be entering a rising trading channel, continues to offer support. With my final adjustment made several days ago, price still continues to stay at or above it, with only one intra-day penetration below it yesterday, 1/2/13, when we had the nice volume.

    The traditional 20-day Bollingers are converging, suggesting that the move out of range is drawing near. My experimental 13-period settings have the upper band being "pushed", suggesting, based on b past behavior. The most recent case pushed it six days and today is only the second day. The time before that was the same.

    If the pattern I'm seeing holds, we have an excellent chance of completing the "cup" portion of a "cup and handle" formation. According to Bulkowski, this should take another two weeks or so, although the trend I'm seeing right now suggests less time could be needed. If it does complete, we should see a modest rise off that pattern. A side-effect is that we would break above those two new long-term descending trend lines and would confirm a break out. That would free price to move to $0.33 and then $0.35. Of course, this could occur without the formation of the handle - the right rim of the cup could just keep on running up.

    On my experimental stuff, the average trade size today dropped back to the very low end of what I think is "retail" - not surprising I guess since, as JP mentioned, the market-maker(s) have to work harder on these low-volume days to make their money. The buy:sell wasn't excessively weak, so I figure it's "normal" after yesterday's strength. As suggested in my short sales comments, MMs were likely long and taking profit.

    Of note, I think, is that the VWAP has risen two consecutive days, along with the high, and caused the 25-day average for the VWAP to cross above the 100-day average (25-day $0.2916 vs. The 100-day $0.2910) along with the intra-day low, high and VWAP (the latter two accomplished this yesterday when that average was $0.2911).

    On my experimental inflection point calculations, we know have both the 5 and day periods above zero at 311.58 and 146.96. Here's an update to what I presented for the first time yesterday.

    The rest of the inflection point calculations and the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff omitted from the concentrator.

    Rolling 5-day aggregate percentage change in latest post up top.

    Dly Sht % of 'sells'" re in the latest posting above.

    1/2/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 83, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 66700, Vol 538958, AvTrSz: 6493
    Min. Pr: 0.2751, Max Pr: 0.3048, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2955
    # Buys, Shares: 68 468966, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2960
    # Sells, Shares: 15 69992, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2922
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 6.70:1 (87% "buys), DlyShts 183788 (34.10%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 262.58%

    Closed up 8.82% on rising, and relatively strong, volume. Just like last year, after a "sell off" and strong downward price pressure in the end of 2011, we had strong volume and price appreciation on the first trading day of the new year. Last year we had an ultimate rise of +137%, as also mentioned in my 12/31/12 comment linked below. Are the same forces at work? Will we repeat? It looks possible, as detailed in this comment responding again to Ranma.

    9.9K in pre-market trades are not included on the FINRA-reported short sales data. If these are included in total volume, the short percentage moves from 32.87% to 32.26%. If they are also included as short sales, the percentage moves to 34.10%.

    After those initial trades, and two more at $0.2751 for a total of 5.1K, it was mostly straight up, as the bids kept stepping up and the ask sporadically did the same, through 14:51, when we hit the day's high of $0.3048. Even after that high, buying enthusiasm remained reasonably strong as the later trades, 58.8K (10.91% of total volume), had a VWAP of $0.3030.

    I posted a mid-day update that shows just how strong the buying pressure was through 12:35. And later I posted another comment mentioning how strong the VWAP was at $0.2937 then. Since we did end strongly, I believe a run up is quite likely here and I will address that below where I briefly touch on my experimental stuff. As I mentioned in that first comment, "If the MMs don't short, greater price and buy:sell strength could be seen". Well, it looks to me like they did short (see the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" above) and we still finished strong.

    In my 12/31 comments I suggested that the market-makers were in control and would be shorting as price tried to rise. Today seems to support that thesis. I used to think, months ago, that we had a "pull effect", enticing low-cost longs to sell into strength. Observing the behavior over time, that may have been true somewhere along the line, but I no longer believe that's the case. There's just too many times we've seen daily short sales spike on strength and fall as price is "pushed" down. And the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff seems to support market-maker action as it tends to spike when price, buy:sell and (sometimes?) volume exhibit strength.

    Enough of that and on to traditional TA.

    First, in a nod to DRich, the MACD signal crossed above its average. He mentioned some days ago that at last the long-term trend was suggesting some strengthening. It's not a ton yet, but every journey ... etc.

    Volume was ~55% above my 25-day SMA. VWAP price is above the 50-day SMA of yesterday's $0.2807 ($0.2806 today and it will drop two more days if price just stays flat). All the oscillators I watch but two are definitely in a transition to bullish mode, as would be expected with high volume and strong price appreciation. RSI is at ~63 now and climbing, accumulation/distribution is near going positive from a current reading of -0.084, stochastic is at 72.5 and climbing above and away from its average line, Williams %R is just below its peak of zero at -0.337 and climbing.

    We have closed six consecutive days above my older descending long-term trend line, which was resistance and should now act as support. Going forward, near-term, this should put our bottom around $0.28 if we don't pull away from it. Pulling away from it does seem likely to me.

    The volatility in the price today would lead traditional technical analysts to say "indecision with a move either direction likely". Then they would address the strength into the close, if they were watching, and say a move up looks likely. If they weren't watching, they would advise caution and say wait for confirmation. I can take this stance, using two new long-term trend lines, both of which intersect today's high and close. A continued trading predominately above $0.304x with a close above that on volume would provide confirmation.

    This behavior would put any market-makers trying to play the stock behind the eight-ball and they would be put into a mode of shorting into rising prices trying to keep their VWAP near the then-current price so they could cover when weakness appeared. If this is what will happen we should see continued increasing daily short sales if price and volume continue to strengthen. The subsequent market-maker covering buys would limit, for a short while and to a small degree, any downward movement.

    Moving to my experimental stuff, today's VWAP moved above all averages but the 200-day SMA. The 25-day average VWAP will move above the 100-day average tomorrow. I'm expecting the downward sloping linear trend lines' correlations to continue to weaken from their current 0.78/0.79 readings if appreciation continues strongly. Buy:sell averages are right back where they belong and the average trade size continues to slowly move back towards its long-term linear trend and is back at its averages and is back in what I believe to be "retail" mid-range.

    I had mentioned in my 12/31 instablog post and APC commentary that:
    "... suggest a price bump is getting set up again. We got one from the last set up, but it was quite small and short-lived as the follow-through from the set up never developed. I'm suspecting EOY stuff might be responsible for some of that. If so the completion of the next set up, barring any catalyst prior to that, should result in a stronger move".

    Well, speak of the devil. I'll show some numbers in the concentrator, but the visual representation available on the charts really shows the movement better and how it compares to prior moves.

    ------ Rolling 5-day aggregate percentage change ------
    xxxxxxxxxx 5 Dayx 10 Day 25 Dayx 50 Dayx 100 Day 200 Day
    12/21 1 Day 0.0435 0.1069 -0.0279 -0.0381 -0.1986 0.0769
    12/24 2 Day 0.4105 0.1188 +0.0759 +0.0995 -0.1108 0.1135
    12/26 3 Day 0.8424 0.3386 +0.0634 +0.1819 +0.1608 0.1527
    12/27 4 Day 0.6542 0.2573 -0.2106 +0.1426 +0.1609 0.1070
    12/28 5 Day 0.9927 0.3289 -0.4495 +0.1258 +0.3797 0.1237
    12/31 5 Day 1.1121 0.3664 -0.3321 +0.1933 +0.5376 0.1059
    01/02 5 Day 1.7311 0.8801 -0.0558 +0.2866 +0.9093 0.3548

    Average % change/day, 5 days
    xxxxx 5 Day 10 Day 25 Day 50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
    12/28 0.1985 0.0658 -0.0899 0.0252 0.0759 0.0247
    12/31 0.2137 0.0519 -0.0609 0.0463 0.1472 0.0058
    01/02 0.2641 0.1523 -0.0263 0.0374 0.2040 0.0483

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff ound in the latest post after the charts.

    12/31/2012: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 64, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 335909, AvTrSz: 5249
    Min. Pr: 0.2780, Max Pr: 0.2938, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2840
    # Buys, Shares: 37 197813, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2850
    # Sells, Shares: 27 138096, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2826
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.43:1 (58.9% "buys"), DlyShts 19837 (5.91%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 14.36%

    On the traditional TA front not much change. Price continues to seem to be certainly into medium-term consolidation, riding just above the weakening 50-day SMA (which will continue to weaken another 4-5 days if there's no price movement), has the traditional 20-period Bollingers moving sideways while my experimental 13-period bands have pinched down and started the same sideways movement, continues to have "flat" volume and price action, and the oscillators I follow continuing to be mixed and flip-flopping from day-to-day. IOW, "directionless" price action for now.

    If some of this is related to closing of books for EOY, tax considerations, ... we might see a repeat of last year's January action, as JP and others have suggested, start to develop. I'm not saying it will happen though - just mentioning that the "unexpected" seems to be fairly common for this equity. Last year it started right at the beginning of the year and moved from a close of $0.27 on 12/30/11 to a close of $0.64, +137%, on 1/26/12. Well, we've closed this year a penny higher (+3.07%), so would we look for a high of at least $0.66? Any "catalyst" would just add to that, if the movement does appear.

    On my experimental charts stuff, we see the average trade size at the low end of what I think is "retail" and seeming to consolidate towards the middle of the range over this month. The buy:sell percentage is above the normal ranges and the 10-day average is rapidly moving back to above the 25-day average and likely will move above the longer-term ones again: 48% and 49% for the 50 and 1-day averages respectively.

    The price action continues to suggest we are entering medium-term consolidation as the VWAP has remained relatively flat ($0.2882, $0.2896, $0.2831, $0.2870 and $0.2840), the lows are the same ($0.2775, $0.2875, $0.2781, $0.2800 and $0.2780) and the highs also are behaving that way ($0.2940, $0.2939, $0.2938, $0.2937 and $0.2938) with volume remaining low, right around the longer-term averages (in thousands, 349, 322 and 355 for the 25, 50 and 100-day averages respectively).

    The daily short sales are doing the usual, recently, pattern of spiking, going absurdly low and then climbing up again to make another spike. It's interesting to note, if you look at my charts, to see how the averages began a long-term trend lower near the end of September through the end of October. This movement began shortly after JP's thoughts that the big sellers were getting exhausted and after my "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff caused me to suggest the nearing exhaustion beginning in August. This can be seen in the instablog where I show the monthly averages.

    My thinking on that is the exit of the "big uglies" returned control to the market-makers, particularly ATDF, who are now playing the market like a fine violin. This condition will likely exist until either a catalyst appears or some sustained buying pressure overwhelms the MMs' ability to control the action. Daily short sales should take a big initial spike and settle at a higher level when that happens and sustain until the pressure abates and the MMs can regain control again. Don't ask me when.

    I've got some discussion of my experimental inflection point calculations that suggest a price bump is getting set up again. We got one from the last set up, but it was quite small and short-lived as the follow-through from the set up never developed. I'm suspecting EOY stuff might be responsible for some of that. If so the completion of the next set up, barring any catalyst prior to that, should result in a stronger move.

    I'm more suspicious that the daily short sales reflect market-maker action which is holding price in a tight range. Notice how we see, on my charts, short-sales percentage spikes through November and December, as price begins to show any real appreciation, followed by a big drop as price is forced down again. Since we believe the "big uglies" are out of the picture, this leaves traders and market-makers as the likely suspects. I've been positing that market-makers are culpable because I believe they are playing with the stock for fun and profit.

    That discussion and the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff are omitted from the concentrator.

    Since the experimental charts don't present the magnitude of small move very well, I thought that some numbers might be useful. Beginning with the 5-day calculation low of -1044.21 on 12/20, we see the following readings for the 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods.

    12/21 1 Day Chg: 0.0435 0.1069 -0.0279 -0.0381 -0.1986 0.0769
    12/24 2 Day Chg: 0.4105 0.1188 +0.0759 +0.0995 -0.1108 0.1135
    12/26 3 Day Chg: 0.8424 0.3386 +0.0634 +0.1819 +0.1608 0.1527
    12/27 4 Day Chg: 0.6542 0.2573 -0.2106 +0.1426 +0.1609 0.1070
    12/28 5 Day Chg: 0.9927 0.3289 -0.4495 +0.1258 +0.3797 0.1237
    12/31 5 Day Chg: 1.1121 0.3664 -0.3321 +0.1933 +0.5376 0.1059

    Average % change/day, over 5 days, for calculation periods of ...
    5 Day 10 Day 25 Day 50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
    0.1985 0.0658 -0.0899 0.0252 0.0759 0.0247
    0.2137 0.0519 -0.0609 0.0463 0.1472 0.0058

    The set up for another move up seems to be in progress and this time the shortest period, 5 days, has crossed above zero quite strongly. The 10 and 100-day calculations look to be flowing this move up as well. If the 25-day comes on-board strongly, we have another set up completed that suggests price appreciation again. But as before, we need to see some volume support this move. Without it we are subject to the vagaries of the market-makers and/or traders.

    Dly Sht % of 'sells'" in the latest post above.

    12/28/2012: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 73, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 32600, Vol 348380, AvTrSz: 4772
    Min. Pr: 0.2800, Max Pr: 0.2937, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2870
    # Buys, Shares: 45 186100, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2906
    # Sells, Shares: 28 162280, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2829
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.15:1 (53.4% "buys"), DlyShts 2500 (00.72%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 1.54%

    On the traditional TA front, not much has changed. Volume hangs in at my 25-day average, ~342.7K; price range compression continues; the $0.271 low of 12/14 seems secure since lows have been trending higher (most apparent on my instablog charts); we have four consecutive days of closes above the former descending long-term resistance, suggesting we have indeed had a "break out" of the falling trading channel, likely into a (now developing?) medium-term consolidation; most oscillators I follow are maintaining, predominately, a neutral attitude with a couple showing a slight positive bias and a couple showing a slight negative bias.

    It looks like DRich's notice of the long-term improvement in MACD is about to make a "bullish call", as the histogram has now improved to almost exactly neutral and a cross of the signal line above it's average appears imminent. As with any indicator at such a stance, adverse moves with good volume could reverse that near-term though. But I've not seen anything that suggests that's likely in my stuff - in fact, just the opposite. I think the worst is that we may have, indeed, entered a medium-term consolidation and the MACD cross would be delayed and the histogram would remain predominately neutral for a while.

    On my experimental stuff, notable today is the, again, very low percentage of short sales. ATM I'm thinking that the frequency with which we see the same market-maker(s) "jumping to the top" (ATDF being the most common, but not the only one) on both sides of the trade is the near-term cause of this. This seems supported by the fact that three of the top four most active [EDIT: click on the sort by share volume]. on OTC Market's most active list are our "nemeses". Since this is a daily listing, it might be interesting if we tracked them daily.

    FYI, here's the daily short sales volumes seen beginning with 11/26, in thousands.

    173.70 119.27 88.37 18.50 19.35 30.73 14.46 20.77 39.62 115.00 3.71 33.00
    13.40 8.34 26.73 194.20 45.50 79.93 15.40 17.20 31.00 106.19 58.94 2.50

    John sent me a note regarding his long-term tracking of short sales statistics and noted we've had an almost two-sigma deviation from past behavior. That prompted me to look at my stuff and notice that the long-term linear trend line has transitioned from a slight positive bias to a slight negative bias. Even when I tested it with log, power and exponential calculations it's apparent that no upward bias exists any longer. This fits with my statement long ago that the volatility was leaving that metric. I expect this will continue at least until we see volumes surge with strong price moves. My belief for the long-term is that we'll see that metric mimic other stocks I follow, but not until "the dust settles".

    Regardless of all that, if my interpretation of the meaning of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff is correct, we continue to see John's suggestion that the "big uglies" (sellers) are no longer present apparently confirmed. For a more extensive view of this, see my instablog. Here I just show August onward, when I thought these data began supporting John's thoughts that they might be getting exhausted.

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
    Dec Avg: 40.00%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%

    Today's volume is right at the 25, 50 and 100-day averages level, which is surprising since I thought volume might be low during this EOY holiday period. If we presume that many potential retail investors are not heavily trading during this period it raises the question of who causes the volume? Maybe there's a clue in the average trade size, which is again at the lower end of what I believe is retail size? Maybe our list of most active market-makers above is a clue? Unfortunately any guess would be just that.

    Price continues to hold up well near-term: $0.2852, $0.2838, $0.2892, $0.2804, $0.2915 and $0.3316 showing for the 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200-day averages respectively. As time passes I gain more confidence that the $0.27-$0.28 range seems to have put in the bottom of the re-trace at the $0.271 low of 12/14 because our lows have been trending higher as well. This is easy to see on my instablog charts.

    Last, my buy:sell experimental inflection point calculations continue to show improvement. I'll have some short-term numbers for them after Monday's trading, which BTW will be an abbreviated trading day - maybe not the best time to take a snapshot of those numbers.

    A longer discussion of these is omitted from the concentrator, along with the full listing of the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'".

    My newer ones, which have different ways of implementing price-sensitivity, are more bullish on the 5-day calculations. The original (buy:sell only) reads -7.65, an improvement from -1044.21 on the 20th. The two newer ones have crossed above 0, improving to 0.74 from -303.13 on one and to 1.27 from -290.33 on the other. Regardless, over the days since I thought they had nearly achieved the "set up" for a price move higher, the better volume I mentioned would be needed hasn't yet appeared. The buy:sell has improved while the price has been rather steady and the volume has not come in to the degree I think is needed to complete the pattern and start the coordinated move that indicates price is starting a near-term run up. If buy:sell gets radically bullish enough for just a few days the pattern could complete even on so-so volume. Otherwise I suspect sideways consolidation with minimal price movement would result until several more of the period calculations start showing a consistent move upward.

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff omitted in the latest day only now.

    12/27/2012: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 45, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 32000, Vol 273202, AvTrSz: 6071
    Min. Pr: 0.2781, Max Pr: 0.2938, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2831
    # Buys, Shares: 16 88887, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2863
    # Sells, Shares: 29 184315, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2816
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.07 (32.5% "buys"), DlyShts 58940 (21.57%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 31.98%

    ATM looking like we might be entering "medium-term consolidation" but it's early yet. The price is staying above the former falling resistance, which would become support, and may ride it down or just goes sideways to depart from it - too soon to guess which. Price is also staying at or above my short-term descending former resistance and may ride it or depart above. As before, too soon to guess yet. Also staying mostly at and above the falling 50-day SMA, $0.2823. Volume steady and daily short sales near normal. Oscillators again mixed with some improving, some flat and some mixed.

    With the holiday right around the corner I don't feel any suggestion of movement can be drawn from all this right now. Continued sideways wouldn't surprise me.

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff omitted in the latest day only now.

    12/26/2012: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 35, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 74500, Vol 291990, AvTrSz: 8343
    Min. Pr: 0.2875, Max Pr: 0.2939, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2896
    # Buys, Shares: 20 177450, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2900
    # Sells, Shares: 15 114540, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2890
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.55:1 (60.8% "buys"), DlyShts 106190 (36.37%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 92.71%

    Pretty good day overall. We had some volume come back in, which wasn't bad for the interstitial between Christmas and New Year's holidays when we often see lower general market volumes. Also, the daily short sales continues to rebound into the normal ranges, although Friday's extremely low volume must be kept in mind when thinking of any "trend" in this metric. Regardless, in a PM earlier I suggested we might see higher today because of something I saw - two "last minute" trades that I interpreted as possible manipulation. Today's short sales continuing to rise may support that scenario, but it's far from a certainty.

    Anyway, on a percentage basis it's above the recent medium "spike" of the 7th of 33.68% and above the 4 averages of 16.26%, 16.37%, 16.45% and 21.24% for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day SMAs. No long-term significance should be read into this, but it does suggest a short-term change in market-maker actions, possibly as response to customer activity or just market-makers playing their usual games. I'll be watching to see if it tries to move towards or past my recently-added descending trend line as a better indication of some longer-term change.

    On the traditional TA front, we saw a "flat" high ($0.294 vs. today's $0.2939) which remains above my long-term descending (former now) resistance. It also stayed above my-long-term descending (now former, hopefully) resistance and the 50-day SMA, now at $0.2889 (yesterday was $0.2834) and the 50-day SMA should continue to weaken, barring any price "spike" for another week or so. But I will not be surprised to see a "spike", figuring the "coiled spring" scenario may now be in play, as touched on below.

    We also had a higher low ($0.2775 vs. today's $0.2875) which stayed above my short-term rising support which had led me to suspect a rising channel might be beginning. AFAICT it is right at $0.28 after what I believe will be it's final adjustment to touch yesterday's low. It now makes a solid 3 - 5 touches (depending on precision desired), plus its origin, without being broken and the low has begun the first day of trying to move further above that trend line.

    A few of the oscillators I normally follow have weakened a bit while a few others continue to strengthen. Keep in mind that some of these (partly) work off closing price, which I suspect was manipulated today. As an example, today shows "down" on both the candlestick and volume bars even though our VWAP from my experimental stuff was up today, as well as over the last nine days ($0.2895, $0.2840, $0.2854, $0.2813, $0.2807, $0.2803, $0.2783, $0.2882, and $0.2896). If what I believe were the real last trades, 10K and 20K at $0.2899 and $0.29 respectively, were the cutoff we would have green on both the candlestick and volume bar. It may not matter if my experimental stuff, discussed later, is correct. Anyway, two 1K trades, in the last minute-and-a-half and at the same second at $0.2881, affected the charts and readings.

    I note, with some interest I'll admit, that this appears to be exactly atop my long-term descending (now former?) resistance. What's the odds of that being a "coinky-dink"? Of course traditional TA says this is now support since we've closed two consecutive days at or above it, allowing for teeny pixels and some imprecision in my "drawing" that line. So maybe it's not that odd.

    Anyway, those oscillators weakening include RSI at 52.12, but still above a neutral reading, the Williams %R barely changed at ~-61.14 from the prior ~-57.05, accumulation/distribution and ADX (steady at 13 with DI- also steady at 17 with the DI+ weakening slightly to 21 from 22 but still positive).

    The "standard" 20-period Bollinger band still suggests a little room to move towards its middle (~$0.2921) with the upper limit ($0.3165) beginning to flatten from a compressing progression and the lower limit weakening very slightly as it ceases its "compressive" behavior. My 13-period experimental settings are exhibiting the same behavior and the price lows are trying to pull further above the lower limit too.

    It looks like the MACD may shortly go positive, continuing a long-term improvement which DRich noted in a comment today.

    On my experimental stuff, note that the average trade size would be influenced by the 74.5K trade seen at 10:22. Removing it would have us at 6,397 average trade size, still near recent averages and about mid-point of what I believe to be "retail" in nature. Just want to bring that up since the trade was 25.5% of the day's volume.

    10-day average buy percentage is back above the rising trend I recently added and is approaching the longer-term averages just below 50%.

    My experimental inflection point calculations continue to strengthen, exhibiting behavior similar to that which preceded and accompanied noticeable short-term price appreciation in the past.

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff omitted in the latest day only now.

    12/24/2012: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 35, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 17500, Vol 92461, AvTrSz: 4203
    Min. Pr: 0.2775, Max Pr: 0.2940, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2882
    # Buys, Shares: 18 72961, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2889
    # Sells, Shares: 3 12000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2854
    # Unkn, Shares: 14 7500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2850
    Buy:Sell 6.08:1 (78.9% "buys"), DlyShts 31000 (33.53%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 258.33%

    First, keep in mind a shortened trading day often has a divergence from recent trends. So any estimates of coming action based on it must be viewed with caution. OTOH, I've been wondering if our little stock might reveal more of the true investor sentiment on such days as the higher-volume market-maker (and other possible parties?) manipulations would be substantially reduced. Quandaries, quandaries!

    First, don't worry about Dly Sht % of 'sells' above - seems very common for low-volume days and does not suggest "big sellers". Just suggests that more trades went through the "normal" channels and inter/inter-broker trades or MM long positions were not the dominant case.

    On the traditional TA front, we had very low volume on a price move up, closing +2.73%. With volume, it would've been a good day. We had both a higher low and a higher high, with the low staying above my short (adjusted yesterday) rising support around $0.2775, AFAICT, and the high breaking above the falling long-term resistance, around $0.2910 AFAICT, before we got a close just below it @ $0.2899.

    Something maybe more significant may be a trend line I failed to identify until this morning before trading began. Drawing a short-term falling trend line originating at the high of 12/5, ignoring the "overshoot" to $0.315 (only 2K shares at the open) of 12/17, with several subsequent touches, the last being yesterday's high, made a "consolidation triangle" with the rising short-term support I've been tracking. These form an apex today. Bulkowski has noted that this very often is accompanied by a movement in price. Possible support for this? Let's see ...

    Lows, since the 13th onward are holding up pretty well: 0.2812, 0.2710, 0.2800, 0.2790, 0.2750, 0.2780, 0.2760, 0.2775. Highs for the same period doing the same: 0.2990, 0.2975, 0.3150, 0.2900, 0.2899, 0.2825, 0.2822, 0.2940. This seems supported by all the oscillators I watch now curling up in a move towards more bullish attitudes, although not yet in bullish territory: RSI ~53.8, MFI ~37.15, momentum flat at ~0.989. Even the stochastic and ADX related have made the turn. But we must be mindful of the low volume here.

    The traditional 20-period lower Bollinger is now rising and the upper limit is reducing it's drop rate. On my experimental 13-period settings the same situation exists and the price is still above the lower band so it is not "pushing" it.

    And the MACD, which I don't normally follow, continues to become less negative.

    All considered, I can't say a bull move is coming - entry into medium consolidation is certainly possible. But my thoughts that we are setting up for a leg up in a rising trading channel is not yet broken and may now have support from my experimental stuff ...

    Today's VWAP moved above it's shortest 3 averages, 10, 25 and 50-day, of $0.2856, $0.2849 and $0.2821. Note that those three are "stacked" in order of increasing duration - considered by some to be a bullish indicator. On my price chart, the long-term calculated descending trend lines had seen a correlation recently as high 82 and over the last few days the low price one has weakened to 78, suggesting another departure from its trend, and the VWAP and high price trend correlations have weakened to 79. When I've noticed these weakening before we've generally had at least a noticeable short-term price rise before more downward movement returned.

    The buy:sell percentage continues its recovery towards "normal", as indicated by changes in the 10-day SMA over the last 8 days: 43%, 39%, 37%, 35%, 38%, 37%, 38% and 40%. The 10-day average now resides right at the rising trend I recently added to that chart, looking to move back above it.

    Last, my experimental inflection point calculations appear to have almost made the necessary alignments to suggest a price rise. The similarities, and differences, to prior periods where these preceded a noticeable move up can be seen on the chart, with some careful inspection. The biggest difference, leaving me still unsure of their validity, is that the range the longer-term calculations are in right now is lower than what has been seen before. I can't say, due to lack of experience with them, if this is significant or not. My feeling for now is that the range is not important and only the congruence of behavior in the period calculations is important. Numerically, the short-term change is presented by the following showing percentage improvement or deterioration in the 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200-day calculations. The third line shows the net change over the three days.

    12/20-12/21: 04.35, 10.69, 02.79, 03.81 -19.86, 07.69
    12/21-12/24: 38.37, 01.33, 10.09, 13.26, 07.32, 03.96
    12/20-12/24: 41.05, 11.88, 07.59, 09.95, -11.08, 11.35

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff omitted in the latest day only now.

    12/21/2012: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 25, MinTrSz: 777, MaxTrSz: 44625, Vol 177767, AvTrSz: 7111
    Min. Pr: 0.2760, Max Pr: 0.2822, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2783
    # Buys, Shares: 10 53927, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2801
    # Sells, Shares: 14 113840, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2772,
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2800
    Buy:Sell 1:2.11 (30.3% "buys"), DlyShts (9.68%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 15.11%

    Well, an abbreviated assessment from the traditional TA front seems in order. The first thing is the low volume and tight price range, which continues unabated. In normal times I would read this as confirmation that we are in and maybe near ending a short-term consolidation. But this is a Friday, which can commonly come with low volume, and we've entered the holidays season, which also brings lower volume. That tends to be accompanied by tight price spreads. Adding in that we're only into a possible consolidation for the 4th day, it would be presumptive to read a low-volume day with a tight spread as signaling the end of the consolidation, if we are really in one - which I do believe.

    Price continues to honor that rising support, but just barely. We finished up +0.79% - not impressive if you think about it in terms of fractional pennies.

    Maybe a note on the trend line is in order. I always try to start establishing these things early. This leads to some false starts and requires adjustment as data points become available. Over a relatively brief span, the assessment of the trend line firms up. This can take longer if we start to slide into a medium-term or longer consolidation of sideways movement, which is quite common. The risk that there really is no trend established during this time is relatively high and real. Those two things alone suggest that when I fail to highlight this, I may mislead some folks. I'll try to keep that in mind in the future.

    I had mentioned a needed "time to recover from the 17th's high volume and volatility". We've begun to see some recovery from that frenetic day as RSI has now recovered to an almost neutral reading of ~47.3. Accumulation has started to recover, moving from Thursday's -0.55xx to end this day at -0.38 - still low but moving in the right direction. Momentum is clawing back towards neutral as well, ending today with a near-neutral reading of 0.9898.

    Price is hanging right around the 50-day SMA of $0.2838, which will continue to fade unless we get a little move up because some higher prices are falling out the back end of the sliding window of the calculation period. This should work to keep share price near that average sans any price drop, which is looking less likely as time passes now.

    The traditional 20-period Bollinger Bands are not suggesting a "pop" yet, although price positioning does suggest some upward mobility to get back into the mid-range of the band. But that's not saying it ought to do that. My experimental settings on those do suggest a small rise as price is tracking just above the lower one (it's not "pushing" on it, which has proven negative with this setting in the past) with lots of headroom (LoL! A whole $0.0078 up to ~$0.29) to get back to mid-range.

    The few others I normally watch haven't done anything new worth noting yet.

    The MACD, which I normally don't watch, has at least temporarily abandoned it's negative slide and now started to move back towards a more neutral attitude. There's still a bit to go though, so I'm not throwing a party yet.

    On my experimental stuff, daily short sales moved towards more normal, but we must be mindful of the low volume and discount any possible meaning I think. The average trade size snapped back to mid-retail size and right on the long-term trend reading. Nothing notable there I think.

    My experimental inflection point calculations have now stabilized and made the first indications that a price turn may be coming. But as before, they're not quite there yet. It's going to require some "normal" volumes, in conjunction with a steadier positive buy:sell, to actually cause a signal I think.

    So, same old, same old - we wait seems to be the order of the day.

    Happy holidays to all.

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff omitted in the latest day only now.

    12/20/2012: EOD stuff partially copied to concentrator.
    # Trds: 51, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 102000, Vol 518010, AvTrSz: 10157
    Min. Pr: 0.2780, Max Pr: 0.2825, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2803
    # Buys, Shares: 19 94200, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2812
    # Sells, Shares: 32 423810, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2801
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:4.50 (18.2% "buys"), DlyShts 15400 (2.97%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 3.63%

    Well, the daily short sales are determined to keep me perplexed. I'm not going to worry about that very low percentage appearing again though - for now I'll chalk it up to one of the "mysteries of the universe". We know the possible causes: inter/intra-broker trades dominating (with the same MMs on both sides so frequently, most likely?), shares from prior sell orders flowing in that have already been covered by MM "covering buys", etc. Since the recent days when we saw these percentages seemed to have little deleterious effect on price, I guess we'll just have to see what develops over time without trying to gather much "intelligence" (if my SWAGs about the cause can be termed such) from the data for now.

    Looking first at the traditional TA stuff, we had a very narrow spread in price, suggesting consolidation. But the volume came in rising from yesterday's level of ~461K by 12.4% on a higher close. This is normally seen as bullish and, I think, when coming out of a consolidation, even if a very short one, even more bullish. But I'm going to reserve judgment here as it's really much too soon to exit consolidation for my taste, especially considering today's buy:sell. Somebody is still releasing shares into the market and we have no idea of the source.

    Price honored our short-term rising support, which I believe is the start of a rising trading channel. This gives us the origin and three touches without penetration now - suggesting the trend does have some potential for decent support. Since I'm still thinking we are in consolidation though, I'm also holding my piece on this one for now.

    A couple of the oscillators I watch stopped their descent (I mentioned yesterday that time might be needed to overcome the nasty effects of the big-volume high-volatility of the 17th) while others continued down, albeit very minimally.

    Price stayed just below the 50-day SMA ($0.2845 and falling) today. The fact we didn't pull further away I'll read as a positive in light of the buy:sell ratio today.

    I mentioned the MACD yesterday and I'm pleased to report that it seems to be holding flat ATM rather than deteriorating further. But we really are very early in any possible change here, so I reserve judgment again.

    On my experimental stuff I first note that the average trade size has now made a very positive and substantial move, recovering from absurdly low sizes. I believe we've now transitioned from the normal "high" range of retail traders and investors. I'm not suggesting institutions are buying us, but I am suggesting that some investors and traders with a higher risk tolerance and cash to support that attitude are now in our sandbox. This is great on the upside and if they are predominately "strong hands", but can be painful if they are frequent traders. Let us hope for many more of the former than the latter. Regardless, let's welcome them as it is that sort that can prevent price from getting hammered if some party is trying to do that. We need all the help we can get here. They can even confound some (smaller?) market-makers who might want to push price around to increase volume and profits, leaving them (the MMs) in a difficult position if they aren't careful.

    Nothing else of my older metrics I want to touch on here. I've got a brief discussion of a theory on why the inflection point calculations behave as they do here that is not in the concentrator.

    I got to thinking about why the inflection point calculations seen to need a "set up" scenario before they seem to suddenly flip to indicating a bullish run. My visual examination of the charts suggests that this is very common and almost a required precursor.

    Thinking about what I'm trying measure, there's some possible "common sense" that may be emerging. I'm trying to measure a change in sentiment. My thesis is that the disparity in aggregate volumes and prices (and other things in the future?) when the bids or asks are hit might be an indicator of a change. According to common traditional TA wisdom, IIRC, inflection points and/or major changes in behavior can occur when either the buy or sell side at a particular price level gets exhausted. Also an inrush to participants on either side can cause this.

    So what I think is happening is a "real-time" micro-version of John's long-term supply/demand imbalance analysis. Just as his experience indicates these imbalances change over time and cause sudden unexpected moves, I think what I'm attempting to measure is exactly the same thing, but affected by a few more things. In my case the market-maker is a very real and very present strong influence. They are subject to their own version of the supply and demand forces that we, as investors and traders, are subjected to.

    So my thought is that the inflection point calculations, in the way that I'm doing them, aggregates the effects of the actions of retail traders and investors along with the actions of the market-makers as they move price and volume around to suit their needs.

    In summary, the raw actions are "distilled" into a numerical variation that displays on the charts.

    And there, I think, is my answer. Why that severe negative movement seems to be needed before we see a bullish indication appear is likely because we must exhaust the sellers who will be biased to hitting the bids heavily. Once that exhaustion occurs, the normal buyers, along with any MMs that now enter accumulation mode for whatever reason, hitting the asks likely becomes the predominate action.

    I don't know, but this starts to sound reasonable in light of more traditional thoughts. It may also explain some of the daily short sales behavior, but I really need to give that much more thought and may still never be able to reach a strong assessment of the "why" of that sometimes oddball behavior.

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff omitted in the latest day only now.

    12/19/2012: EOD stuff partially copied to concentrator.
    # Trds: 57, MinTrSz: 450, MaxTrSz: 45107, Vol 461037, AvTrSz: 8088
    Min. Pr: 0.2750, Max Pr: 0.2899, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2807
    # Buys, Shares: 29 278787,VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2809
    # Sells, Shares: 26 177750, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2805
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 4500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2806
    Buy:Sell 1.57:1 (60.5% "buys"), DlyShts 79930 (17.34%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 44.97%

    On the traditional TA front ... First some bearish considerations.

    A short-term falling resistance, originated at the high of 10/17 with touches at 12/3-12/6 and 12/17 (the high volume "spike" day with extreme price volatility - a 20% spread) suggests further downward movement. It currently sits at ~$0.315, presenting a possible "cap" on near-term appreciation.

    Price finally closed below the 50-day SMA, $0.2853 and "flat" ATM. However, the 50-day will continue weakening unless we get a push to $0.30+ as prices in this range are falling out of the 50-day window. This could keep price above the 50-day if we just hold "flat" on the VWAP, which is what I've been expecting because consolidation is what I believe is going on.

    The last two days our highs again moved back into our long-term descending trading channel (~$0.2911?). But the second "penetration" above that falling resistance has been both higher and of longer duration than the penetration seen 10/9-10/17, suggesting that the strength of resistance may be weakening, or a new pattern may be getting established.

    We continue to see lower highs, albeit I'm not sure 1/100th of a penny would qualify - $0.29 vs. $0.2899. If we consider this instead to be "flat", we have to discount this.

    The MACD, which I normally don't examine, has gone negative. The MACD can't be ignored as it's considered a reliable indicator. It is very early into this bearish stance though and we'll need to see if it strengthens or weakens over the next few days.

    The oscillators I watch have yet to recover from the hammering they took on 12/17's volume spike and extreme volatility (20% price spread). They have moved from the prior day's attempts to start to "curl upwards" to now being bearish in attitude again. This might be just a result of insufficient time and volume for the "neutral" activity of consolidation to begin to hold sway though, so I can't say that I think they are strongly suggesting further price depreciation yet.

    BTW, the volume doesn't seem as low as I would expect if we were very near ending consolidation (only two days in, nor surprise there I guess). My 25-day average sits at 333.4K and today's 461K is around 38% over that. So I do suspect a few more days of "consolidation" may pass before we see movement. This always presents a risk of further downward movement.

    Last, price has a history of always weakening after trying to make moves up, which we did to the tune of +58.6% from the low of $0.2018 on 11/12 (or +44.8% if you choose to use the low of $0.221 on 11/13) to the high of $0.32 on 12/3.

    Looking at things through my more bullish POV ...

    I thought we might have an inverted hammer candlestick pattern, which breaks bearish 65% of the time, but the first candle of this two-candle pattern is not "tall" enough. If we did have it and broke out upward, the average rise is over 6% according to Bulkowski, so I'm sort of disappointed we didn't get it. OTOH, we don't, apparently, have the suggestion of a 65% risk of downward break. That's good.

    I had been suggesting the bullish move since early November and when we topped I suggested a re-trace to the $0.27-$0.28 range. This is not to toot my own horn, but to set context since I try and view everything in context. For me this is important as I'm more comfortable when things act as I expect than when they don't. DOH!

    Considering recent action, trading volume is behaving quite nicely IMO. It conforms to expected behavior after first touching and then solidly hitting my re-trace targets of $0.27-$0.28 beginning 12/11 and apparently bottoming out (so far anyway?) on 12/14. The end of the down trend was apparently indicated by the volume spike (~1.162MM) on Monday, 12/17, as since then we have entered what appears to be a consolidation (is this what some call "basing"?) suggested by reducing volume with tight price spreads, after the 20% spread seen that day. Of course, this is only the second day after that volume spike, so I might be premature in calling this situation. But some supporting indicators are contained in my older experimental metrics mentioned down below and there's others I'll touch on here.

    There's a potential establishment of a short-term rising trading channel being established. This can be seen by originating a support at the low of 11/13 (I ignore 11/12's low as being an "overshoot") with touches now at lows of 11/21, 12/14 and now 12/19. The resistance for this channel can be established at the high of 11/15 and touching the highs of 12/3-12/5. BTW, these have moved since I originally mentioned them. This is a result of my attempts to be very early at identification of trends and then making adjustments as more data points come into view. The critical thing here, IMO. is the rising (~6 cents per month?) support, currently at ~$0.276, as we want to confirm that a base is being established or not for a rising channel. This could easily become a sideways trading channel or even break downward.

    It could even become a rising channel but in a different range and slope than what is currently suggested.

    Some notes on my older experimental metrics ...

    Daily short sales continues to move back towards "normal" range, suggesting that trading activity is recovering from whatever abnormal conditions were causing the low single-digit percentages we saw for a week or so. Today's reading puts us above three of the four averages I track: 13.32%, 15.28%, 15.85% and 21.62% for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day SMAs respectively. This bodes well, I think, since the short percentage is still far from excessive, indicating that we didn't have a ton of new sell orders flowing to the market makers, among other possibilities. The long-term trend line sits ~21%, with a slight rising slope.

    If I interpret this metric correctly, the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" metric continues to indicate that the "big uglies" are not a force here: Dec Avg: 27.44%, min: 3.59%, max: 135.35%. The numbers compare very favorably to other months, which can be seen below.

    The average trade size has been moving quite smartly back to what I think is retail high-range (?) over the last week. The averages are 6989, 5757, 6085 and 6321 for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day SMAs and the rising trend line is just above 6880.

    Today's buy:sell was strong enough to bring our 10-day moving average right back to the trend line I recently added to my experimental charts so it looks like the "big fear" from Monday's extreme actions were unwarranted as, indeed, it seems it was more retail investors or traders protecting their profits than some form of determined manipulation to drive price lower as I first believed.

    All told, I assess the above items as being positive indicators.

    Looking at some other things on my experimental charts ...

    We currently sit at what I believe is an important point. Our price range is "trapped" ATM between the falling resistance line (~$0.2925?) of our long-term descending channel begun 5/29/2012 and a short-term support (~$0.2775?) of what I believe is the start of a rising trading channel.

    The long-term falling resistance has been presenting strong and consistent resistance since it's inception. We do have two recent penetrations (10/9-10/17 and 12/3-12/17 - the day of the spike) that suggest it's strength may be weakening. The short-term rising support is relatively untested as yet so we don't know how serious it is. Anyway, a break below this on strength and volume for more than a day or so will suggest more price deterioration I think. A break above the falling long-term resistance will support a bullish outlook, near-term. These two lines are near making the apex of a triangle, being only ~$0.015 apart, and we should have an indication of future movement in just another few days as one of these will certainly be violated.

    It might be useful to check where the "weight" of trading was to try and assess the likelihood of breaking below that rising short-term support at $0.2775(?).

    $0.2750-$0.2771, 040,500 VWAP $0.2758
    $0.2780-$0.2799, 086,200 VWAP $0.2794
    $0.2800-$0.2848, 311,837 VWAP $0.2813
    $0.2850-$0.2899, 022,500 VWAP $0.2872

    So we can see that 91.2% of the day's volume occurred above the short-term rising support of what I think is a new rising trading channel being initiated. Barring a change in the behavior, I think the rising support has a decent chance of holding for now.

    I believe the chances of a break above that long-term descending resistance are "decent".

    The last thing I want to mention is my experimental inflection point calculations. Through visual inspection, patterns similar to what we observe now seem to have an excellent record of predicting moves up, even for short-term. I mentioned a few days back that we were seeing a precursor set up that leads to this. We are now a a critical point in that the oscillators are "primed" to call a rise, but not quite there yet. If the pattern continues to develop in the next day or two, I believe it's almost certain that we get a noticeable rise in price.

    But these are very experimental and haven't been back-tested in any way yet. Take a look for yourself if interested.

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff omitted in the latest day only now.

    12/18/2012: EOD stuff partially copied to concentrator.
    # Trds: 77, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol 643912, AvTrSz: 8362
    Min. Pr: 0.2790, Max Pr: 0.2900, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2813
    # Buys, Shares: 38 127962, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2844
    # Sells, Shares: 39 515950, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2805
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:4.03 (19.9% "buys"), DlyShts 45500 (7.07%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 8.82%

    Short sales continue a halting move toward normalcy. Relatively speaking though, not as much as it seems. Total volume was down 44.57% while short volume was down 76.57%. With the same market-maker on both sides of the NBBO bid/ask, I assume many trades ended up being intra-broker in net effect, so a lower short percentage is not a big concern at these percentage levels. If we start seeing the low single digits, I do take notice though.

    Today was more normal, IMO, than yesterday. I jumped all over that "manipulation" thing yesterday, but maybe I got smarter today when replying to Occam's_Razor: "... Keep in mind that as recently as 11/12 we had a low of $0.2018 and rising price with slowly rising, and halting, volume since.

    From there to the high of $0.32 on 12/3, there's a lot of potential profit in hand if some retail traders or investors got in. It would be poor risk management for many if they didn't take some off the table ...".

    I had forgotten all about that stuff yesterday as I watched the action. Today being more restful seems to have put me back on a more even keel (MHO only, of course :-)).

    All I'll say today is that in retrospect I guess we should've expected some "consolidation" action after touching what I think was the end of the re-trace. Time will tell and, if I'm unlucky, pps will surprise me again.

    OH! Had some large trades by UBSS and others, multiple 100K stuff, that skewed the average trade size. So we don't want to read much into the improvement here. If we get continued increases, on average, over a few days it'll be worth noting.

    On the traditional TA front we see that short-term rising support I discussed with DRich earlier (yesterday?) is still holding - low stayed above it. Price compression, reducing volume after a re-trace, ... All seems normal.

    Nothing worth noting on my experimental charts - inflection point calculations continue in what seems may be a set up for calling a move up shortly, but it's not there yet.

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff omitted in the latest day only now.

    12/17/2012: EOD stuff partially copied to concentrator.
    # Trds: 165, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 1161760, AvTrSz: 7041
    Min. Pr: 0.2800, Max Pr: 0.3150, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2854
    # Buys, Shares: 75 419720, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2888
    # Sells, Shares: 90 742040, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2834
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.77 (36.1% "buys"), DlyShts 194200 (16.72%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 26.17%

    Interesting day, as you already know. Very high price volatility (12.5% range), high volume, early price rise followed by apparent attempts at hammering down. In spite of that the price kept coming back to push above the 50-day SMA ($0.2862 - yesterday was $0.2865). Theories surfaced, which I support 100%, that someone was trying to depress price in preparation for the next share offering.

    Why do I support it? Because I can think of no combination of retail investor or trader action, in light of (recent) past volume and price combinations that make this behavior likely. We had recently (Friday) completed an expected re-trace to the $0.27-$0.28 area and the "natural" next step would be an attempt to continue the up trend began 11/21. Apparently the attempt was being made - that's obvious from the uptake of offered shares every time price dipped below the 50-day SMA - which may have no relation to anything other than that's what I observed happening.

    The net result was that we both closed up 2.1% in spite of the pressure and the VWAP managed to eke out 1/2% gain! Yeah, no biggie, but in light of the pressure ...

    The only downside is that the selling pressure tried to continue right into the close, preventing a rising volume on rising price into the close. Got the price, but not the volume.

    Had a couple 50K trades go and others I'm sure were as large but were broken up into smaller tranches. Late in the day the seller(s) put 172.9K, that went at an aggregate $49,020.81, into the market in the last 16 minutes as part of the effort to hammer price.

    I suspect that the "unexpected" uptake accounts for the rise seen in short sales, which I noted in the concentrator. I'm wondering if the seller had to put in a late sell order in an attempt to keep price suppressed.

    In a more normal vein, we closed above the 50-day SMA and I can't say the attempt to move up has failed yet. We got rejected, today, by a short term descending resistance ($0.3153 AFAICT). But we were at (what I believe to be) the end of the re-trace and saw a typical (for other stocks) end-of-trend possibility suggested by the volume "spike". We also saw (as I would expect) a higher low and higher high coming off what I think was the bottom of the re-trace at $0.27-$0.28.

    Unfortunately, for AXPW, the end-of-trend spike doesn't work out as often or as reliably as I've seen on some other stocks.

    Recent price action's similarity to last year's EOY action was noted by several in the concentrator. You may recall that it seems Special Situations exited their position and then had re-entered in early 2012.

    Anyway, in spite of all that the oscillators I watch on the charts are curling up towards a bullish attitude. All are still weak though as they just started the turn. Several have left oversold now.

    If the uptake is as strong tomorrow, we might see that $0.3153 broken and the up trend continuation will have room to continue. If not, ...

    On my experimental charts stuff, the average trade size today moved right above the moving averages and settled at the trend line, near the middle of what I believe is retail sizes. As noted though, we did have some larger trades that would skew the results, but with today's volume I think it would be inconsequential.

    The buy:sell managed to continue improvement towards a more normal range in spite of the selling pressure. We've got some big numbers falling out of the 10-day SMA though, so unless a major buy percentage emerges in these few days we'll see the 10-day SMA continue lower for another day or two.

    A discussion of the inflection point calculations is omitted in the concentrator, other than to say that they are currently in a negative attitude that seems to be a precursor for a coming bullish signal. They aren't there yet, but are close if behavior remains consistent.

    On my V1.0 inflection point calculations, the 5-period seems to be suggesting a nearing up move. Looking at it, you wouldn't think so but it has a history of leading and then rolling over before the move up really develops. It may be doing just that now but doesn't yet have the confirmation from the other periods, which was seen in the past. For that reason alone I wouldn't yet bet it's calling it right. Adding in that all period calculations are yielding a negative number ATM, unseen since mid-August, and the situation seems even less clear.

    In that August case we got a curl up in all the periods, a sideways move for around a week, and then a ~10% move up. So they did give advance warning that the move was coming and may do the same in this case. We'll just have to wait and see I guess. Everything is still too new to hang much confidence on them yet. I wonder if that will ever change.

    More recently, regardless of configuration, they did point the way, starting in early November, to the move up that began to develop 11/12-11/19 and continued through the first week of December. The period configurations were fairly similar at that time to what's being seen ATM.

    Maybe it's time to give those calculations some "street cred"? Nah! I'm still too chicken for that.

    The newer versions of those calculations, which include other factors, seem to support what V1.0 is showing except that the 200-period (newly added) is more positive in its movement on the new versions. In each case the various periods are coming into conformance in a negative attitude, which seems to be a condition that presages a rotation to a rapid upward bias that foretells a price rise. But the condition is (apparently) not confirmed until a curl upwards occurs in multiple periods.

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff omitted in the latest day only now.

    12/14/2012: EOD stuff partially posted from instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 66, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 314472, AvTrSz: 4765
    Min. Pr: 0.2710, Max Pr: 0.2975, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2840
    # Buys, Shares: 33 104574, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2879
    # Sells, Shares: 33 209898, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2821
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.01 (33.3% "buys"), DlyShts 26728 (8.50%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 12.73%

    I seem to be back in good health and should be able to post daily again. Picking up from my prior posts ...

    We hit my targets of $0.27-$0.28 and apparently have started to recover from those levels. I had also mentioned that if Maya's 5th Elliot wave completion was correct, we should see an ABC "corrective wave". Although I am really, really, really uncertain WRT EWT (Elliot Wave Theory), I believe we've seen that corrective wave (but it's down at the "fractal" level that I make this judgment and so I could be way off) and will shortly begin a "motive wave" up, wave 1 of a 5-wave sequence. Waves 1, 3 and 5 are "motive waves" and should be up. Waves 2 and 4 are "corrective waves" and should be down. Our target for Wave 1 is $0.34 before any real risk of reversal comes into play. But this is a "no man's land" area and I expect resistance below or above it. $0.34 should be only a pause at most.

    Repeating, I'm very poorly versed in this stuff and I mention this only because Maya had brought the subject up and he does have experience in this area.

    Turning to more traditional TA ...

    We have now penetrated, and fallen back below, our falling resistance of the long-term descending trading channel the last two times it was challenged. The last penetration was stronger and I expect we will now break (permanently?) above it very shortly. It currently sits at ~$0.30. We have several oscillators in oversold condition, often considered a strong indication that a reversal will occur. But only the stochastic is showing early bullish indications. Volume profile is still uncertain and doesn't yet support a strong assessment of bullishness.

    Price is trading at (and predominately above now?) the 50-day SMA of $0.2863 recently, except for Friday when it struggled.

    In my experimental charts areas, the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff continues to suggest, if I interpret correctly, that the "big uglies" (thanks John!) are no longer with us as the current reading shows substantial change from the days when we know they were in:

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
    Dec Avg: 27.68%, min: 3.59%, max: 135.35%

    The loss of "big uglies" may also be supported by Reg SHO & Rule 4320 Status, where we see that (OTCQB:AXPW) fell off the threshold flag listing after 9/28/2012.

    Volatility in averages for daily short sales, buy:sell and trade size continues to reduce. I've added some trend lines to these charts (will be up later today) that make this more apparent.

    My V1.0 inflection point calculations suggest another move up will begin. The later versions (still need much refinement) also support this. I've enough data that I can now show 200-day calculation for these. This also suggests that a long-term change in the buy:sell trend is under way with a bias towards improvement.

    A last note: the daily short sales have been abnormally low. This strongly suggests that one or more market-makers are playing our stock from both sides, making covering buys, having temporary long positions, and selling to the market to increase profits. This morning's early action seems to support this as an early attempt to rise was absolutely crushed by quick market-maker sales (IMO) driving price back down to $0.282 - an action no retail trader or investor would take in this scenario. Regardless, buying pressure seems to be developing as price is now back to $0.29 as I pen this.

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff omitted in the latest day only now.

    12/13/2012: EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 36, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 22600, Vol 180859, AvTrSz: 5024
    Min. Pr: 0.2812, Max Pr: 0.2990, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2895
    # Buys, Shares: 12 46204, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2948
    # Sells, Shares: 24 134655, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2877
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.91 (25.5% "buys"), DlyShts 8340 (4.61%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 6.19%

    12/12/2012: EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 13, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 51900, AvTrSz: 3992
    Min. Pr: 0.2880, Max Pr: 0.2989, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2945
    # Buys, Shares: 8 42000, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2939
    # Sells, Shares: 5 9900, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2967
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 4.24:1 (80.9%), DlyShts 13400 (25.82%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 135.35%

    12/11/2012: EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 49, MinTrSz: 332, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 432678, AvTrSz: 8830
    Min. Pr: 0.2845, Max Pr: 0.3016, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2935
    # Buys, Shares: 14 75564, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2935
    # Sells, Shares: 35 357114, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2935
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:4.73 (17.5% "buys"), DlyShts 33000 (7.63%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 9.24%

    12/10/2012: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 47, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 38000, Vol 249295, AvTrSz: 5304
    Min. Pr: 0.2900, Max Pr: 0.3084, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2990
    # Buys, Shares: 22 145800, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3006
    # Sells, Shares: 25 103495, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2968
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.41:1 (58.5% "buys"), DlyShts 3711 (1.49%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 3.59%

    Same ol' same ol': Short percentage spikes high then drops big. I'm becoming more convinced that such as ATDF are working the stock with some transitory long positions.

    I didn't mention yesterday's increase in average trade size was due to a couple outlier trades (100K and 43K) that skewed the results since they were 41.9% of the day's volume. Consider it mentioned now. Anyway, seeing today's size drop back into the low end of what I believe is retail is not surprising.

    Volume is futzing around the averages - today being slightly below all of them.

    Today the VWAP was below $0.30, continuing what I think is a "reversion to the mean" around the $0.27-$0.28 area. I wouldn't be surprised to see it break below the 100-day SMA of $0.2965 tomorrow.

    All three versions of my experimental inflection point calculations still show no strength appearing in the buy:sell calculations.

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff still suggesting the big bad wolves are gone. December average is down at 18.88%, very low. It may come up but looks set approach the lowest seen, 31.5% back in April before (we think) the really heavy selling of the Mega-C trustee shares began.

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" stuff omitted in the latest day only now.

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

Back To H. T. Love's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (18)
Track new comments
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Following...
    17 Dec 2012, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (956) | Send Message
     
    34 cents by mid jan. or bust on elliot wave imo.
    17 Dec 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Disregarding today's action thus far, I'm thinking $0.34 would not be a problem. But if John's scenario about a vulture fund manipulating is true, it'll be one hell of a struggle.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2012, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (956) | Send Message
     
    if they find a strategic partner i'm not worried about it. i trust the buy:sell. a vulture can hold down shares to pick up more later but the end game is the same. the more shares in our hands, the less they can do too...
    17 Dec 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm with you on the "strategic investor". If one comes in and some vulture is trying to manipulate all they will have accomplished is booking their losses.

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3768) | Send Message
     
    One or more of PowerCube sale, HUB UL cert and orders, follow on hybrid truck battery order could make "vulture investor" pickin's pretty scarce
    17 Dec 2012, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » D-Inv: Yep, we could pick over their bones for a change, eh? ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    17 Dec 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • robert.b.ferguson
    , contributor
    Comments (10660) | Send Message
     
    H.T.Love: Seasons greetings. Thanks for the analysis.
    20 Dec 2012, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Robert: have good holidays, in case I don't "see" you before them.

     

    Thanks for the comment on the analysis - I'm always fearful that I overlooked something important or made invalid assumptions or misunderstood how something works or ...

     

    It's never-ending.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Dec 2012, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • InsuranceDude
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    HTL--let me help you out a bit since it seems you are trying to do a good thing here(disregarding your jabs at my authenticity). I am not sure how you do your buy/sells, but today I sold 125,560 at .29. That 74,500 was part of my sale. If you want the exact trade by trade, I can give you that. Tomorrow after the open, I will have the remaining 106,237 for sale. Maybe knowing these things will give you some more insight into what is actually happening.
    26 Dec 2012, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I.D.: "disregarding your jabs at my authenticity"

     

    Please correct me if I am wrong, but I have been initially agnostic and later raised a question to you about your investing such a sum before *apparently* digging as deep as you seemed to begin to do.

     

    You did not answer my question, which was a *potential* red flag. If you missed my Q because of SA's errors in flagging new comments, you can find it here.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Then when you decided to bail out of participation, and I can't blame any non-troll for doing so, I just forgot about it all, other than commenting about the possible self-correcting nature of the concentrators.

     

    If you've followed my posts I hope that you see what I think I wanted to project as to giving time for things to develop and *proper* assessment of "trollness" to be made with reduced chance of reaching an erroneous conclusion.

     

    A quick scan of my comment stream may allow you to properly assess if my take on my behavior is correct or not, if that's of interest. Start here and move forward and you'll see my feelings adequately expressed, I believe, if I didn't overlook anything. If APH has deleted a comment to which I responded, that comment may not be there anymore. Should only take a few minutes to scan and identify and read pertinent stuff.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    ATM I'm only leaning heavily towards Grobertson1 being a true "troll" (and I posted such to him in one of JP's articles) as he has *again* posted the same comment multiple places, received counter-points which he never addressed and ... But my opinion doesn't matter on that as APH and the board participants ultimately decide that regardless of any single individual feelings such as mine.

     

    Further in a private conversation I did point out there had been some trades I identified as possibly being the completion of your purchase.

     

    <quote>
    ... yesterday(?) he said he had about 76K(?) more to go. This am at around 10:34 quantities went off at $0.276x that would fill that quantity. Was it him? Don't know, don't care., but it could be he is doing what he says. ...
    </quote>

     

    And in full disclosure in another PM
    <quote>
    My initial suspicion really was anybody that would include "Dude" in his moniker. This from a person that chooses "HardToLove". Hmm .... :-))
    </quote>

     

    Responding to your "... I am not sure how you do your buy/sells, ..."

     

    I appreciate the offer and that is generous of you, but generally I avoid using this sort of information because being experimental, basically uneducated and h00m0n, I'm afraid that I might start skewing my assessments based on specifics I hear about rather than the general trends I see. It's fun to hear that I got something right, but beyond that I try to avoid incorporating such in my thinking. My goal is to be able to use something purely resulting from observable data that might be available to all.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Dec 2012, 07:49 AM Reply Like
  • InsuranceDude
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    No worries HTL. Like I said in the other board, I thought you a decent person. I offered the info so you could tweak the results you are seeing.

     

    As to your question, I bought a small position based on preliminary promising info on the technology. I had searched around the battery space for my personal needs for some time. PbC looked like a great idea on paper, and the price was plumbing the lows. I had confidence the price would not drop since JP was cranking out "supportive" articles and comments at a furious pace. I figured that was timed to coincide with some upcoming offering. However, I am now uncomfortable with the whole mess. If I am lucky, I will be out this morning completely.
    27 Dec 2012, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks for informing and GL on your exit. If that trade I thought might be yours is, and if the price does continue act as my experimental inflection points suggest, you should get a small profit.

     

    Best of luck on that part.

     

    HardToLove
    27 Dec 2012, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • InsuranceDude
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    All out with a few spare coins in my pocket.
    27 Dec 2012, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • InsuranceDude
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    ...and HTL, could you inform the tools on that concentrator that once again are calling me a liar that I indeed told you I was selling 106,237 shares BEFORE I did it. I know they find it hard to believe, and I am sure the apologies will pour out of their loving pie holes, but nonetheless, I told you last night, I put the order in this morning for all to see, and it sold.
    27 Dec 2012, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (956) | Send Message
     
    don't worry about it ID. he's letting everyone know and GL on your future investments.
    27 Dec 2012, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I.D.: I've done all I want to do in this dust up. Generally I try to avoid getting into this stuff. I did post some of what you had passed on.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Dec 2012, 07:22 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (16953) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » New shortened (for a while) instablog here.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    2 Feb 2013, 01:48 PM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.