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H. T. Love
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Spent over 30 years in computer systems work, many different functions. Owned my own business for awhile. Got tired of it (managing employees is not my baliwick) and stopped doing it professionally. Did other things, off and on, for some more years and finally bumped into this investing/trading... More
  • AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 02/01/2013 11 comments
    Feb 2, 2013 1:46 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    I've been manually collecting this data for a year now while volume was low and it was therefore reasonable to do so. I'll stop when it gets too large unless I can craft a mechanized capture of most of the stuff.

    I'll update this daily as long as I can for anybody that might find it useful. The chart will stay near the top and the text updates expressing my most recent thoughts will follow after the chart.

    I've arranged the chart segments to put what I think are related stuff close together.

    This is the seventh installment of the original "AXPW: Some Intra-Day Trade Charting" instablogs I've started doing on Seeking Alpha. The others grew, as I added daily commentary and FINRA data, to the point I was afraid the load time might become an irritant for folks that have less internet bandwidth or older computing equipment so I've started rolling to a new one aperiodically.

    Versions subsequent to the original (latest to oldest) can be found here.

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 12/15/2012

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 11/14/2012

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 9/6/2012 - Xx/xx/2012

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 7/7/2012 - 9/5/2012

    In the below chart note that the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!

    (right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

    AXPW Intra-day Statistics Chart 20130228

    The following are modified inflection point calculations bracketing a price chart for comparison. Note that the false bullish moves and contrary moves of the 5-day has been eliminated.

    The two inflection points are calculated differently from each other and differently from the original above. More work to do, this is a start, hopefully.

    I've identified some changes I want to try on the new inflection point calculations but haven't had time to implement them yet. I'll work them in over time after a little experimentation.

    Comments and further suggestions welcome.

    (right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

    Third chart below missing - undergoing revision

    AXPW Intra-day Statistics Chart Test IP Calculations 20130228

    In all the charts above I had to:
    - estimate 3/27 buy:sell ratio because I couldn't get ADVFN screen-shots that day,
    - omit 3/28 data due to garbage from the ADVFN feed.
    - estimate the buy:sell for the first 28 trades of 11/26 as the ADVFN feed did not properly classify then because the bid/ask was missing. I put all the $0.26xx trades below $0.2650 as sells and ones at or above $0.2650 as buys. This was 41% of the days volume, 227,698 shares.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point calculations values are now only in the latest daily comment - attempting to keep things shorter for faster loading.

    02/28/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 20, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 24600, Vol 77100, AvTrSz: 3855
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3200, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3059
    # Buys, Shares: 7 11600, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3147
    # Sells, Shares: 13 65500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3043
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:5.65 (15.0% "buys"), DlyShts 4550 (05.90%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 6.95%

    Yesterday I mentioned a potential short-term falling resistance that might come into play: " It's currently ~$0.3185 and drops ~2/10ths of a cent each day". Today, after seeing it hit and hold, one would be tempted to say it looks like it's in play, but that would be premature. Not enough volume today and it's only the first day after a relatively high-volume (compared to recent volumes) price improvement coming out of the doldrums (hopefully!). However, I do have to say I didn't like what I saw in NITE (Knight Capital management) market-maker actions today. They spent a large part of the day, starting right from the open, keeping the bid/ask very narrow at $0.31/$0.3109. Then they moved the ask up to $0.32 and NITE was joined by UBSS. But at 15:10 NITE caved and dropped the ask to $0.31 shortly after some trades went at $0.3055, starting at 15:06. So, no "strong hands" there! The "late-day fade" is alive and well, albeit at a slightly higher price level, at least temporarily.

    Our usual nemeses, ATDF and TEJS, were relatively quite today.

    Moving on, we had a higher low and high for the second day. With the volume, I guess, the oscillators I watch became mixed again - some continued up, others weakened a bit. Nothing worth noting though. The 50-day SMA continues to rise slightly and the spread to the 200-day widens a bit.

    With the 50-day SMA ($0.3161), the 200-day SMA ($0.313) and the potential descending resistance all right at the price area seen today, I'm not surprised to see some hesitation here. Since tomorrow is both a Friday and the first day of a new month, I don't know what to expect (as if I ever really do know!). Another slow day wouldn't be a surprise I guess.

    With all that, I can think of only one thing from my experimental charts that warrant a mention - everything else is just like yesterday except that the buy:sell flopped over again. That one thing is a continued intra-day VWAP improvement: $0.3080, $0.3003, $0.2973, $0.2967, $0.2932, $0.2973, $0.2992, $0.3015 and $0.3059. Regardless of volume and other technical indicators, I see this as an important trend to continue, regardless of opens or closes. Let's hope it does so.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points omitted from the concentrator.

    CORRECTED A FORUMLA ERROR IN THE BELOW DISCOVERED 2/13/2013.

    Rolling 5-day inflection point calculation aggregate percentage change (now abbreviated):
    ******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
    01/30 5 Day +0866.65 -0265.85 +0771.96 -0013.11 -0309.28 -0020.52
    01/31 5 Day +0215.08 +0875.69 +0499.71 -0051.67 -0188.43 +0122.69
    02/01 5 Day +0447.86 +0555.75 +0197.11 -0181.73 +0257.43 +0356.92
    02/04 5 Day +0335.19 +0010.19 +0409.45 -0152.94 +0277.03 +0137.54
    02/05 5 Day +0184.50 +0053.40 -0023.72 -0456.15 +0376.02 +0130.39
    02/06 5 Day +0227.50 +0639.16 -0111.32 -0439.74 +0461.61 +0143.88
    02/07 5 Day +0135.51 +0350.59 -0430.29 -0479.89 +0534.89 +0125.89
    02/08 5 Day +0082.14 +0530.00 -0196.94 +0572.54 +0289.80 +0130.24
    02/11 5 Day -0038.26 +0296.93 -0536.82 +0666.04 -0032.08 -0001.61
    02/12 5 Day -0100.15 +0084.36 -1010.70 +0454.31 -0208.34 -0096.65
    02/13 5 Day +0274.49 -0046.99 -1216.20 +0661.98 -0129.21 +0295.96
    02/14 5 Day +0411.71 -0276.20 +1081.39 +0856.82 -0212.70 +0091.72
    02/15 5 Day +0572.66 +0490.52 +1294.17 -0607.93 -0182.21 +0175.81
    02/19 5 Day +0510.46 +0548.72 +1658.49 -0383.65 -0153.35 +0121.88
    02/20 5 Day -0279.22 -0379.37 +1340.30 -0268.50 +0242.27 +0133.24
    02/21 5 Day +0006.75 -0267.74 +0306.09 +0150.56 +0463.85 -0237.46
    02/22 5 Day +0191.65 -0220.06 -0960.23 +0271.98 +0357.77 -0133.57
    02/25 5 Day +0199.79 -0372.87 -0846.48 +0443.21 +0551.64 -0273.40
    02/26 5 Day +0331.14 -0179.32 -0207.39 +0390.72 +0735.02 -0204.52
    02/27 5 Day +0287.32 +0008.10 -0038.65 +0399.71 +0376.27 -0127.76
    02/28 5 Day +0128.41 +0135.16 -0778.48 +0262.26 -0190.55 -0194.80

    Average % change/day, 5 days
    ____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
    01/25 +250.30 -305.64 -166.61 -043.34 -372.91 -261.19
    01/28 +288.99 +390.74 -016.37 -018.60 -367.10 -024.57
    01/29 -229.09 +421.88 +078.00 -034.62 -263.04 +014.45
    01/30 +053.17 +007.34 -053.76 -228.52 -003.20 -124.50
    01/31 -175.14 +379.19 +013.01 -070.78 -258.78 +131.08
    02/01 -111.15 +361.45 -051.90 -108.05 +209.45 +200.12
    02/04 +002.04 -286.95 -021.36 -047.98 +117.24 +063.57
    02/05 +063.12 -218.41 -170.41 -107.29 +105.06 +034.85
    02/06 -127.83 +181.00 -176.66 -085.33 +154.18 +032.88
    02/07 -015.91 -105.02 -186.00 -085.65 +144.66 +000.64
    02/08 -073.14 -005.15 -078.81 +150.85 +006.47 -045.34
    02/11 -074.69 +057.35 -189.25 +163.79 -061.82 -027.83
    02/12 -056.93 +006.19 -197.40 +182.09 -116.87 -045.41
    02/13 +009.40 -137.23 -220.98 +220.34 -118.16 +030.42
    02/14 +055.24 -125.36 +302.34 +267.34 -149.52 -006.83
    02/15 +098.10 -007.90 +298.22 -236.09 -094.40 +009.11
    02/19 +109.74 +050.36 +439.06 -209.94 -024.25 +024.70
    02/20 -035.81 -092.74 +470.20 -144.56 +090.12 +045.98
    02/21 -053.55 -044.15 +304.46 -102.28 +118.61 -106.69
    02/22 -044.01 +011.23 -408.33 -116.97 +114.09 -045.06
    02/25 -074.57 -172.68 -428.13 +210.23 +146.77 -089.84
    02/26 -035.86 -145.61 -373.17 +154.87 +177.67 -065.28
    02/27 +113.31 +077.49 -275.79 +133.64 +026.80 -052.20
    02/28 +024.33 +080.58 -216.91 +022.34 -130.88 +008.53

    I encourage those with an interest to look at the charts and notice the prior patterns similar to the current one and the resulting price activity.

    Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
    Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64% 139.27%
    Mon. 10/22: 194.20% 19.54% 25.53% 15.21% 15.17%
    Wed. 10/31: 62.24% 149.46% 39.90%
    Mon. 11/05: 30.92% 7.61% 6.98% 3.53% 10.10%
    Mon. 11/12: 4.01% 116.57% 30.19% 16.71% 39.58%
    Mon. 11/19: 14.90% 3.88% 259.67% T'gvg Day 8.97% (1/2 day)
    Mon. 11/26: 65.57% 142.31% 59.83% 11.20% 69.26%
    Mon. 12/03: 29.97% 13.19% 10.55% 15.57% 40.42%
    Mon. 12/10: 3.59% 9.24% 135.35% 6.19% 12.73%
    Mon. 12/17: 26.17% 8.82% 44.97% 3.63% 15.11%
    Mon. 12/24: 258.33% 92.71% 31.98% 1.54%
    Mon. 12/31: 14.36% H'lday 262.58% 6.39% 131.03%
    Mon. 01/07: 45.09% 77.18% 52.53% 36.35% 52.72%
    Mon. 01/14: 27.99% 0.70% 48.48% 11.09% 11.21%
    Tues. 01/22: 00.26% 23.79% 12.89% 8.36%
    Mon. 01/28: 69.26% 42.03% 7.96% 0.00% 28.33%
    Mon. 02/04: 17.36% 28.73% 18.53% 12.68% 39.65%
    Mon. 02/11: 25.67% 5.99% 16.57% 17.04% 8.23%
    Tues. 02/19: 19.57% 19.88% 10.17% 30.54%
    Mon. 02/25: 2.88% 55.65% 28.57% 6.95%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
    Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%

    ============ 2013 ===============
    Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 262.58%
    Feb Avg: 20.90%, min: 2.88%, max: 55.65%

    0228 Vol 0077100, Sht 0004550 05.90% LHC 0.3000 0.3200 0.3001 b:s 1:5.65
    0227 Vol 0132545, Sht 0020429 15.41% LHC 0.2926 0.3109 0.3100 b:s 1:1.17
    0226 Vol 0044241, Sht 0012740 28.80% LHC 0.2880 0.3095 0.2926 b:s 1:1.07
    0225 Vol 0073600, Sht 0002000 02.72% LHC 0.2890 0.3089 0.2900 b:s 1:17.38
    0222 Vol 0115700, Sht 0020000 17.29% LHC 0.2880 0.3108 0.2990 b:s 1:1.63
    0221 Vol 0020650, Sht 0002100 10.17% LHC 0.2911 0.3001 0.3001 b:s 0:20650
    0220 Vol 0108250, Sht 0016350 15.10% LHC 0.2910 0.3109 0.2910 b:s 1:3.16
    0219 Vol 0255826, Sht 0033217 12.98% LHC 0.2910 0.3109 0.3000 b:s 1:2.14
    0215 Vol 0114625, Sht 0005030 04.39% LHC 0.2970 0.3100 0.3100 b:s 1:1.14
    0214 Vol 0450402, Sht 0037600 08.35% LHC 0.2990 0.3240 0.3000 b:s 1:1.71
    0212 Vol 0269141, Sht 0012439 04.62% LHC 0.3200 0.3300 0.3200 b:s 1:3.37
    0211 Vol 0262950, Sht 0039950 15.19% LHC 0.3200 0.3395 0.3300 b:s 1:1.45
    0208 Vol 0170389, Sht 0022205 13.03% LHC 0.3246 0.3289 0.3260 b:s 2.04:1
    0207 Vol 0147700, Sht 0007700 05.21% LHC 0.3250 0.3395 0.3269 b:s 1.43:1
    0206 Vol 0078900, Sht 0009350 11.85% LHC 0.3210 0.3300 0.3300 b:s 1:1.77
    0205 Vol 0075565, Sht 0011465 15.17% LHC 0.3204 0.3300 0.3235 b:s 1:1.12
    0204 Vol 0211835, Sht 0013500 06.37% LHC 0.3200 0.3289 0.3288 b:s 1.72:1
    0201 Vol 0247850, Sht 0026400 10.65% LHC 0.3200 0.3295 0.3245 b:s 1.66:1
    0131 Vol 0063453, Sht 0000000 00.00% LHC 0.3156 0.3240 0.3200 b:s 1.29:1
    0130 Vol 0159470, Sht 0008500 05.33% LHC 0.3155 0.3300 0.3199 b:s 1:2.02
    0129 Vol 0145105, Sht 0014627 10.08% LHC 0.3216 0.3311 0.3290 b:s 3.17:1
    0128 Vol 0094400, Sht 0018700 19.81% LHC 0.3140 0.3300 0.3250 b:s 2.50:1
    0125 Vol 0473350, Sht 0027500 05.81% LHC 0.2960 0.3220 0.3140 b:s 1:2.28
    0124 Vol 0416640, Sht 0033450 13.76% LHC 0.3000 0.3440 0.3222 b:s 1:1.67
    0123 Vol 0210763, Sht 0029000 13.76% LHC 0.3380 0.3500 0.3440 b:s 1:1.55
    0122 Vol 0257760, Sht 0000660 00.26% LHC 0.3456 0.3579 0.3500 b:s 1.04:1
    0118 Vol 0278075, Sht 0020530 07.38% LHC 0.3500 0.3600 0.3585 b:s 1:1.93
    0117 Vol 0439978, Sht 0029800 0.0677% LHC 0.3505 0.3757 0.3600 b:s 1:1.60
    0116 Vol 1005050, Sht 0033500 03.33% LHC 0.3475 0.3600 0.3550 b:s 13.5:1
    0115 Vol 0943341, Sht 0005957 05.96% LHC 0.3470 0.3789 0.3551 b:s 1:9.74
    0114 Vol 0684858, Sht 0078000 11.39% LHC 0.3650 0.3775 0.3708 b:s 1.46:1
    0111 Vol 1213987, Sht 0198230 16.33% LHC 0.3370 0.3800 0.3650 b:s 2.23:1
    0110 Vol 0151803, Sht 0014641 09.64% LHC 0.3304 0.3393 0.3364 b:s 2.77:1
    0109 Vol 0179487, Sht 0008800 04.90% LHC 0.3304 0.3392 0.3370 b:s 9.72:1
    0108 Vol 0464487, Sht 0127965 27.55% LHC 0.3300 0.3480 0.3346 b:s 1.74:1
    0107 Vol 1460809, Sht 0246800 16.89% LHC 0.3013 0.3449 0.3297 b:s 1.65:1
    0104 Vol 0333439, Sht 0126782 04.18% LHC 0.2951 0.3094 0.3043 b:s 1:2.84
    0103 Vol 0178207, Sht 0007450 04.18% LHC 0.2951 0.3094 0.3043 b:s 1:2.84
    0102 Vol 0529058, Sht 0173888 32.87% LHC 0.2751 0.3048 0.3047 b:s 6.70:1[58]
    1231 Vol 0335909, Sht 0019837 05.91% LHC 0.2780 0.2938 0.2800 b:s 1.43:1
    1228 Vol 0348380, Sht 0002500 00.72% LHC 0.2800 0.2937 0.2900 b:s 1.15:1
    1227 Vol 0273202, Sht 0058940 21.57% LHC 0.2781 0.2938 0.2899 b:s 1:2.07
    1226 Vol 0291990, Sht 0106190 36.37% LHC 0.2875 0.2939 0.2881 b:s 1.55:1
    1224 Vol 0092461, Sht 0031000 33.53% LHC 0.2775 0.2940 0.2899 b:s 6.08:1 1/2 day
    1221 Vol 0177767, Sht 0017200 02.97% LHC 0.2760 0.2822 0.2822 b:s 1:2.11
    1220 Vol 0518010, Sht 0015400 02.97% LHC 0.2780 0.2825 0.2800 b:s 1:4.50
    1219 Vol 0461037, Sht 0079930 17.34% LHC 0.2750 0.2899 0.2762 b:s 1.57:1
    1218 Vol 0643912, Sht 0045500 07.07% LHC 0.2790 0.2900 0.2800 b:s 1:4.03
    1217 Vol 1159260, Sht 0194200 16.75% LHC 0.2800 0.3150 0.2869 b:s 1:1.77[57]
    [57] There was one pre-market trade of 2.5K @ $0.30 which are not in the FINRA-reported data. Adding this to the total volume moves the reported short percentage from 16.75% to 16.72%. If we also add it to short sales the percentage moves to 16.93%
    [58] 9.9K in pre-market trades are not included on the FINRA-reported data. If these are included in total volume, the short percentage moves from 32.87% to 32.26%. If they are also included as short sales, the percentage moves to 34.10%.

    02/27/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 28, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 12329, Vol 132545, AvTrSz: 4734
    Min. Pr: 0.2926, Max Pr: 0.3109, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3015
    # Buys, Shares: 13 61045, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3067
    # Sells, Shares: 15 71500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2970
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.17 (46.1%), DlyShts 20429 (15.41%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 28.57%

    FYI: there was one trade of 9K that was classified as a "sell" due to the timing of new bids coming in the same second the trade executed against the ask at the time. From talking with FINRA about certain discrepancies in the past I have learned that it's possible for trades to have time stamps that are off by fractions of a second to over several seconds, causing the trade to appear out of order. I think that's what happened here. Anyway, if that trade was properly classified the buy:sell would be 1.12:1, 52.8%.

    Very interesting day! To me it was the change in behavior that is most significant.

    We had our "late-day weakness" come early, as we saw our intra-day low hit again (first was 3 minutes past the open) in a $0.29xx selling spree that began at 12:58:32, about 45 minutes after I made my second block of purchases for the day @ $0.30, and ended at 13:10:04. VWAP was $0.2960 on 40.5K shares, 30.56% of the day's volume.

    Then trading silence ... for an hour and 3/4. But something magical was happening! The ... bids ... were ... slowly ... creeping ... upward! It was strange, but when I saw the $0.29xx flush occur, I thought "That takes out the sellers at this level". I don't know why, but that's what I thought. Anyway, bids went from the standing $0.2926 to $0.293, $0.295, $0.30, $0.3005, $0.301, $0.3015, $0.302, $0.3025, $0.305, $0.3055, $0.3056, $0.3075 and $0.31, where it ended the day. Yes, there were some trades up and down and bids moved up and down a bit, but it was a lollapalooza(sp?) episode of jostling at the ticket window, comparatively. So, for us, saying "strength into the close" would be understatement. We were up as much as 6.25% briefly today. Closed up 5.95%. On to traditional TA stuff ...

    Got a higher high and low, first in a while. Our high matched the highs seen at the start of this sideways leg on 2/15. Price continues to depart upward from my experimental 13-period lower Bollinger and from the potential descending support I mentioned yesterday.

    Every oscillator I watch, except the ADX-related, improved substantially and we had rising, albeit not great, volume on this up move. So we can risk giving some credence to this move up. Stochastic left oversold and is still above its average, Williams %R neared its top at -3.93, momentum jumped to 1.03 from yesterday's 0.914, MFI exited oversold but is still low at ~22.1, and RSI moved to just above neutral at ~51.

    The 50-day slightly rising SMA, $0.3158, is above the slightly falling 200-day SMA, $0.3136. The 50-day will continue to rise, barring a severe price retrace, and will slowly begin to accelerate over the next 2.5 weeks. Again, barring a retrace. The spread between the 200 and 50 will continue to widen for an extended time.

    We have a potential resistance, based on a descending trend line tracking the high of 1/11 to the high of 2/13, with some additional touches right after 1/11 and on 2/11. It's currently ~$0.3185 and drops ~2/10ths of a cent each day. With the 50-day above the 200-day SMA and today's action (possibly) suggesting that sellers at this level are being outweighed by buyers, it may not present any resistance at all. We'll see - I'm betting not.

    We have some prior resistance that could appear at "churn" points, in the $0.32-$0.33 area. I'm thinking $0.33 more likely, based on frequency seen.

    On 2/14, I repeated that I thought we would try to move back into our rising trading range after a few days. Well, it's taken longer, but if this is the start of that, that (now) resistance is sitting at ~$0.3425 and rises ~$0.01/week. I figure it should take at least a week to get there, if that's what's happening, so the price point of that resistance would be around $0.3525 - right where we would expect normal price-point resistance seen in the past.

    On my experimental charts, average trade size is back into what I think is retail, but at the lower side of mid-range I think. The 10-day buy percentage, which had fallen severely below range over the last seven days or so, has started to recover, but it has a way to go to overcome what we've been seeing and get back into a normal range.

    My experimental original inflection point calculations are still in disarray but, as mentioned over the last couple of days, when I look at the numbers improvement is surfacing. Today four of the six periods are improving - marked down from 5 improving. So although the squiggles on the charts didn't tell me a lot, the underlying numbers were suggesting that things might be getting better.

    While working on one of the newer versions today to put a one-year snapshot of it up, I think I detected that it was showing a "signal". I haven't studied it enough to say, but I will be looking at it more closely now that I have a version to throw into the one-year bin.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    02/26/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 15, MinTrSz: 155, MaxTrSz: 5600, Vol 44241, AvTrSz: 2949
    Min. Pr: 0.2880, Max Pr: 0.3095, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2992
    # Buys, Shares: 7 21346, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3072
    # Sells, Shares: 8 22895, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2916
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.07 (48.2% "buys"), DlyShts 12740 (28.8%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 55.65%

    On the traditional TA front - all readings are suspect because volume was even lower than yesterday - down ~39.9%. Add in that the daily short sales were about 600% of yesterday's and we have to be at least suspicious of everything. So I'll be brief today.

    Lower low (1/10th of a cent) and higher high (6/100ths of a cent), giving a 7.47% spread today, suggests folks are getting antsy and a move may be in the making, even with low volume (actually, that's a part of the consolidation we look for before price "busts a move"). With a close at $0.2926, we still have support demonstrating there. The lows were caused by the usual impatient suspects at TEJS and ATDF, for the most part, AFAICT. There were a couple that I didn't see which MM they came from though.

    Trades below $0.30 were 22,130 shares in seven trades and were 50% of volume. Trades at $0.30 and above were 22,111 shares in 8 trades that represented ~50% of volume.

    A possible positive is that low price is departing not only above my experimental 13-period lower Bollinger, but is also departing above a potential descending support (I want to emphasize potential - it's way too short-term and is just a duplicate of the short-term resistance line I mentioned yesterday). However, it has been hit by the lows six times without breaking out, so it might be real.

    All the oscillators are at low levels with MFI in oversold and stochastic dipping back into that area. No sign of movement up from them yet.

    However, from my experimental charts, there may be something brewing. Recall yesterday we had VWAP starting to show recovery. It continued today, in a very stealthy manner: $0.3003, $0.2973, $0.2967, $0.2932, $0.2973 and $0.2992 today.

    Average trade size is still low though. At least buy:sell moved back to normal range. With this low volume I don't know we can give much credence to anything. My experimental inflection point calculations, which are still disorganized on the chart but showing some slightly positive trends, shouldn't be given any weight. So even though the underlying numbers continue to show improvement, their sensitivity to volume dictates that we must have some volume before we can consider them seriously.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    02/25/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 20, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 73600, AvTrSz: 3680
    Min. Pr: 0.2890, Max Pr: 0.3089, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2973
    # Buys, Shares: 1 4000, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3089
    # Sells, Shares: 18 69500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2967
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 100, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2990
    Buy:Sell 1:17.38 (5.40% "buys"), DlyShts 2000 (2.72%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 2.88%

    Well, one 400 share trade at $0.289 at 9:30:07 and one 4K trade at $0.3089 at 9:30:08 set the range for the day.

    All other trades went at $0.2900-$0.3000. We saw the "late day weakness" start during the lunch hour as the first trade below $0.30 since 9:30:07 occurred at 12:22:45 with a 6.4K trade @ $0.2951. Over that four hours and eight minutes a flood of orders - 7 whole trades - additionally traded one at $0.295, four at $0.291 and one at $0.29. Total of shares in these trades was 30K, ~40.8% of the day's volume, at a VWAP of $0.2924. There's not enough volume or variability to break it down further.

    In spite of that, we managed to generate a higher VWAP - here's the last five days, including today: $0.3003, $0.2973, $0.2967, $0.2932 and $0.2973. May be an early indicator that folks are deciding the risk is justified here? OTOH, every trade was a "sell" except one 4K at $0.3089. Even all the $0.30 trades were "sells".

    Essentially, $0.29 is still holding as support and we're waiting to see whether the sellers or buyers get exhausted first. 39K, 53.1% of day's volume, traded at $0.30.

    Our low was 1/10th cent higher and our high was 19/100ths lower than Friday's. I call it essentially flat until we get some successive days of such behavior and can see a trend. Speaking of which ...

    We do have a short-term descending (about $0.002/day) potential resistance that's currently at $0.3220.

    On the traditional TA, nothing much to say other than the experimental 13-period lower Bollinger departed from our price range today. If price wants to go back to mid-range, that's now at $0.311, with the upper limit flat and the lower falling. If price holds steady, the 50-day SMA of $0.3152, above the 200-day SMA of $0.3147, will start to creep up again while the 200-day continues to fall. Most of the oscillators I watch are still weakening slowly except the stochastic, which is trying to rise, having moved just out of oversold and barely above its average.

    On my experimental stuff, average trade size was below what I consider normal retail, buy:sell below "normal" and volume is "what volume!". My inflection point calculations are in visual disarray, suggesting nothing but more of the same for now. But when I look at the numbers for the five-day aggregate percentage changes, five of the six are improving, suggesting that a turn may be in the works. We'll have to wait and see,

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    02/22/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 27, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 15000, Vol 115700, AvTrSz: 4285
    Min. Pr: 0.2880, Max Pr: 0.3108, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2932
    # Buys, Shares: 11 40222, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2959
    # Sells, Shares: 14 65478, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2919,
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2910
    Buy:Sell 1:1.63 (34.8% "buys"), DlyShts 20000 (17.29%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 30.54%

    In the traditional TA arena, we had better volume today and it looked like $0.29 would hold again until the last 17 minutes. Then we had two lousy small trades, probably by someone that forgot to take their meds ;-)) and had the typical late-day jitters.

    Here's a breakdown of the ranges, for context.
    $0.2880-$0.2880: 003751, 03.24% of volume, VWAP $0.2880
    $0.2900-$0.2940: 62599, 54.10% of volume, VWAP $0.2907
    $0.2950-$0.2990: 37500, 32.41% of volume, VWAP $0.2955
    $0.3000-$0.3000: 11850, 10.24% of volume, VWAP $0.3009

    If those two $0.2880 trades at 15:30:14 and 15:43:31 hadn't come in, apparently the typical late-day weakness we've seen so often, it wouldn't have been a bad day at all as we would've seen the $0.29 continue to act as support and a high within 1/100th of a penny of the recent $0.3109 on Wednesday. Come to think of it, I think I'll just ignore them and focus on the "strengthening" that also appeared, in the last 15 minutes. We had three trades totaling 15K shares, two trades at $0.29 for 10K and one trade at $0.2990 of 5K. This doesn't change anything, but I feel better looking at a half-full glass.

    With this low volume there's really not much I'd hang my hat on here - oscillators I watch had some steady, some improving and some a tad weaker. No moves big enough to even comment on. We do continue to separate a bit from my experimental 13-period Bollinger lower band, now at $0.2868 and marked down from yesterday's $0.2893.

    We shouldn't overlook that we closed higher, at $0.299, than we opened, $0.292. Traditional chartists will note this, as well as the fact that we closed down a smidgen, 11/100ths of a cent, from yesterday's $0.3001.

    There may be some good news. IIRC, UBSS had been showing offers for some time now that suggested folks were trying to get out and having no success. Today, and a little yesterday, I saw their offers get taken. After the close today, when often a lot of bids and asks get "uncovered" as potential trades are canceled, their best ask had moved back up to $0.31. TEJS was showing $0.309 and NITE was showing $0.319 as their best asks. We had been seeing successive UBSS offers over time moving lower, getting into the low $0.30xx area yesterday (IIRC) and finally the $0.29xx area today. So maybe that little slice of weakness is gone. We'll see.

    I wonder if today's $0.288 was a typical overshoot? With the low volume at that area, I suspect it's so. Again, we'll see.

    On my experimental charts stuff, average trade size remains low, buy:sell is back near normal today, volume remains well below all the averages (in thousands: 202, 213, 355 and 338 for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day SMAs respectively), daily short sales remain low and my experimental inflection points lost most of their brief upward movement bias for now and have a slight negative movement starting. Without volume I can't say any of this is at all meaningful though.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    02/21/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 9, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 9000, Vol 20650, AvTrSz: 2294
    Min. Pr: 0.2911, Max Pr: 0.3001, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2967
    # Buys, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0000
    # Sells, Shares: 9 20650, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2967
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 0:20650 (0% "buys"), DlyShts 2100 (10.17%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 10.17%

    Zero "buys" today. In spite of that and the low volume, when sellers are often quick to lower their ask, ask stepped down only a couple of times and it wasn't by the NITE best offer already in place before the open @ $0.3109. The bid opened at $0.291 and moved to $0.2911 five minutes later before falling back again. About 1.5 hours passed between trade # 1 (9:46:11 $0.2911) and #2 ($0.2921 11:17:21). That's pretty much how it went all day - with the bids inching up every so often and the ask staying at $0.3001 and higher all day.

    With a tight spread, volume so low we need a snorkel to see it, a higher low and the offers being very reluctant to drop price, and then in smaller quantities, I think we see strong evidence of a bottom. As Mayascribe suggested today, it looks like (most of?) the fast-money crowd that wanted to exit with their profits may have done so.

    This ought to have a favorable effect on folks waiting to get long as it seems to be solid evidence that downside risk, near-term anyway, is minimal. But I think they'll need to get past worrying about the financing that is needed in Q2, latest, before they are willing to step up big-time.

    Oh! The low detached from my experimental 13-period lower Bollinger limit, $0.2893, today. We can squeeze some Charmin between them, so it counts!

    Other than those comments, I don't think traditional (or even experimental for that matter) TA can carry much weight on today's volume, but since we finished up, and with a higher low, I think a following higher low and rising high over the next few days (tomorrow's Friday - if it's dead don't read much into it) will confirm a near-term, at least, bottom.

    However, having said that, passage of excessive time with no volume, little price movement and no news can change perceptions. Just sayin'!

    On my experimental charts, only my inflection point calculations are worth noting I think. Most periods, which had slowing descents in progress, which IIRC I mentioned yesterday, are actually reversed now. Some had been reversing before, but the overall trend I interpreted as slowing descent. Today I looked at the numbers, rather than just the squiggles. All but two are showing upward bias for the last three days and the squiggles have started making the pattern that leads to a signal that an up move may appear. But there is a caveat: with the recent low volume I can't yet place as much reliance on them as I did in November and subsequent periods.

    In spite of that, my risk-acceptance personality surfaced yesterday and I added a couple trading blocks.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    02/20/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 22, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 22000, Vol 108250, AvTrSz: 4920
    Min. Pr: 0.2910, Max Pr: 0.3109, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2973
    # Buys, Shares: 5 26000, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3002
    # Sells, Shares: 17 82250, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2963
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:3.16 (24.0% "buys"), DlyShts 16350 (15.10%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 19.88%

    Yesterday and today is more like what I expected Friday, other than hitting lows ~ 1/2 penny lower than I anticipated. But as mentioned yesterday, looking at the range from the low of $0.2018 11/12/13 to the high of $0.38 1/11/13 would give a reversion to the mean at ~$0.29. I never expected that long a period would be in play for this on our little micro-cap.

    Anyway, good to see that low hold again today - maybe we are bottoming here. There's some indication this might be - volume falling off, RSI oversold at ~29.6, MFI headed there, needing only another 1.15 down to hit the magic 20 from the current 21.15, Williams %R at -100 (the "magic" number if it's going to work its magic), stochastic oversold but crossed above its average.

    ATM I do have a concern that we've not had an "overshoot" of that reversion to the mean price point. Maybe we won't get one. We'll see I guess.

    The "standard" 20-period Bollingers are at $0.3441 and $0.2963 with both upper and lower trending downward, but beginning to converge as the upper has a steeper decline rate ATM. A move to the midpoint would hit $0.3202. Price has "pushing" the lower band four days now. I don't see any relatively consistent pattern of how long this goes - sometimes it's a very short period and sometimes much longer.

    My experimental 13-period Bollinger bands are at $0.343 and $0.2925, yielding a mid-point of $0.318 if a move back to normal midpoint is gong to occur. The range is broadening and normally we have only about one more day of price "pushing" the lower band before a move towards the middle begins. This is not cast in stone - it could start earlier, later or go the other way. Past behavior does suggest movement back towards $0.32 is most likely though.

    I just noticed that what seems to be support ATM, ~$0.29 is the high that originates my ascending trading channel resistance line at $0.29 on 11/15/12. If traditional TA carries any weight, this former resistance should now act as support, which it seems to be doing for two days now. It's also just below the low ($0.296) that ended our prior leg down on 1/25 before we started trading sideways (consolidating or "churning") and also acted once as support on 7/19/12 that ended a down leg and started an up leg, back in our long slow sideways trend. With volume dropping today this is looking like it might hold. I think it seems possible also because of yesterdays strong action at the $0.30xx, and above, price points. Speaking of which, today:
    - $0.2910-$0.2920, 27000 shares, 24.94% of volume, VWAP $0.2912;
    - $0.2950-$0.2990, 32950 shares, 30.44% of volume, VWAP $0.2971;
    - $0.3000-$0.3109, 48300 shares, 44.62% of volume, VWAP $0.3008.

    Not as strong as yesterday, but I guess on lower volume we shouldn't expect it to be so.

    Based on all the above I wouldn't be surprised to see the rebound begin in the next few days - with the oscillators at their extremes or into oversold and volume suggesting bottoming with a lower-bound price holding so far it seems reasonable. But I'm not betting on it - I expected a rebound after a few days and I may just be experiencing "confirmation bias".

    On my experimental charts stuff, the average trade size was at the lower end of what I think is retail today, the daily short sales percentage moved down a bit from yesterday along with the volumes, "buys" weakened a bit more, and my experimental inflection points continue to weaken, although it looks like the rate is now starting to slow. There's nothing here indicating an upturn yet.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    02/19/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 49, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 22500, Vol 255826, AvTrSz: 5221
    Min. Pr: 0.2910, Max Pr: 0.3109, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3003
    # Buys, Shares: 20 79126, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3025
    # Sells, Shares: 28 169700, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2992
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 7000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3035
    Buy:Sell 1:2.14 (30.9%), DlyShts 33217 (12.98%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 19.57%

    On the traditional side, today looks more like what I expected than Friday did. I was surprised that we went as low as $0.291 now - I had expected $0.295 or so a couple weeks back IIRC. $0.296 was our low at the end of the prior down leg on 1/25 before we started the latest churn.

    It's interesting that today's low is almost exactly a "reversion to the mean" from the low of $0.2018 on 11/12/12 to the high of $0.38 on 1/11/13. With our "grind up" well established I had been figuring shorter time-frames with medians in the legs' ranges for that and then a continued move up.

    The sideways trading has let the rising support move ever higher (currently at ~$0.32 AFAICT, rising ~$0.01/week, and would now be resistance, matching resistance seen in our first leg up in the rising trading channel began in November, and matching the recent "floor" in our consolidation). This $0.29xx area has been a "churn" area support and resistance over the last year. With the volume nearly back to near-term averages today (in thousands for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day SMAs respectively: 207, 308, 370 and 353) on a down day, we have to cross our fingers that it will once again act as support.

    Here's the breakdown of today's price/volume action (I thought it might help to have some perspective):
    - $0.2910-$0.2950, VWAP $0.2945, 36500 shares, 14.27% of day's volume;
    - $0.2951-$0.2995, VWAP $0.2987, 29200 shares, 11.41% of day's volume;
    - $0.3000-$0.3047, VWAP $0.3008, 161526 shares, 63.14% of day's volume;
    - $0.3050-$0.3092, VWAP $0.3054, 21000 shares, 8.21% of day's volume;
    - $0.3100-$0.3109, VWAP $0.3101, 7600 shares, 2.97% of day's volume.

    We see volume on prices >=$0.30 is almost triple the percentage of prices below that level. Moreover, the low prices, as is normal, began to come in later in the day with 65.75% of volume and all but two of the 21 trades coming after 13:21. With the weakness coming in the normal afternoon time it suggests there's nothing new or unusual going on.

    We have four days with my experimental 13-period lower Bollinger band being "pushed" by price, which has three consecutive days of lower lows. A move back to the middle would put price at ~$0.32 right now. All the oscillators have continued to weaken now and a couple are verging on oversold while the stochastic decides to go the other way and start rising, although it's still oversold.

    I'm not seeing anything suggesting a reversal here.

    On my experimental charts stuff, I think the average trade size is in mid-retail range, buy:sell is not abysmal yet (but the to short-term averages are sinking pretty quickly right now), and my experimental inflection point calculations continue to weaken, showing no signs of any potential move up yet.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    02/15/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 23, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol 114625, AvTrSz: 4984
    Min. Pr: 0.2970, Max Pr: 0.3100, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3080
    # Buys, Shares: 9 53500, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3093
    # Sells, Shares: 14 61125, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3068
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.14 (46.7% "buys"), DlyShts 5030 (4.39%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 8.23%

    Although it was a low-volume day, I was pleasantly surprised to see the price stay in the $0.3050-$0.31 range, after 1K went at $0.297 and 100 went at $0.299 at the open. If this is an indicator, this soon after the (small?) drop I expected, we might recover even faster than I had anticipated. I'm with a comment by MrI on this though - I want to see what it looks like in the early part of next week after the long weekend. And I want to see it with some volume so we can try and gauge the "truth" of what we see.

    Since we had low volume, I'll keep it short as the stuff I normally mention mostly can't be given too much weight without volume. All the oscillators, except MFI and ADX related, made small moves in the bullish direction. Stochastic is still in oversold and the others are still below neutral. Williams %R has started up and I wanted to mention it only because once we entered our up trend in November this oscillator seems to have a little move credibility, hinting correctly at both up and down moves except for one time. But remember it has a long lead-time and the move doesn't seem (usually) assured until the oscillator crosses the 50% level on the way up (and may have to re-trace briefly and cross again). Of course, the failure was on it's latest move up as we went almost flat while %R went clear up to -6% and started down, foretelling the down move but faking us by forecasting an up move before that which never developed.

    Speaking of fakes, I got one laid on me today! Because of today's surprising price strength, to me - I had called for a quick recovery but expected a couple of days, we got our "Golden Cross" two days earlier than my latest estimate, with readings today of $0.3158 and $0.3151 for the 50 and 200-day SMAs respectively. For serious TA folks, this is supposed to be a big deal. Let's see if we get some confirmation of this next week. If I see price pushing our rising resistance, formerly support, around $0.325 or so by Friday, I'll think we have something to look forward to. That would start to pressure the 50-day to accelerate its move higher again even as the 200-day continues to decline.

    On my experimental stuff we shouldn't expect any major changes with this volume today. We have a low average trade size, buy:sell near even, and continued low daily shorts volume and percentage. It is interesting that our low stayed above the rising 100-day SMA of $0.2988.

    My inflection point calculations have already begun to flatten. If we had some volume I would be all a-twitter (no relation to any social media platform ;-).

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    02/14/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 74, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol 450402, AvTrSz: 6087
    Min. Pr: 0.2990, Max Pr: 0.3240, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.3054
    # Buys, Shares: 35 128664, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3133
    # Sells, Shares: 37 220638, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3032
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 101100, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3002
    Buy:Sell 1:1.71 (28.6% "buys"), DlyShts 37600 (8.35%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 17.04%

    I posted a separate comment about the second consecutive day with a late-day 100K trade @ $0.30 trying to figure out what seems the most likely scenario.

    Yesterday (Wed.) I said I expected the price to challenge the 200-day SMA in the next day or two and that I didn't expect any bounce without a challenge to our rising support line. I mention this only because I get comfort when things act as I expect - it suggests I have a handle on what's going on and I might suffer with fewer incorrect decisions.

    Anyway, price challenged the 200-day SMA ($0.3181) and blew right past it and our rising support, an "overshoot" as I've been suggesting would occur. So now we need (want) to see a bounce up occur, hopefully in just a few days. We can't reliably assess the effect or number of any remaining 100K block trades we've seen. So there is some risk that it won't come back as quickly to the rising support (now resistance ~$0.318) as we might have expected (hoped for?). If there is more to go, the MMs should be holding price >=$0.30 so they can short at the higher price and then cover their short position (possible - evidence doesn't indicate they are shorting) with the 100K block. Since tomorrow is Friday, we might not see any evidence of this - the MM might be more cautious about shorting into the long weekend or the seller might be thinking of the long weekend.

    The 50-day SMA ($0.3157) is going to go flat for a day or two if price stays flat in this range. This puts the "Golden Cross" out about two more days - middle of next week looks likely if price stays flat. It'll be interesting to see if it provides any immediate (a couple of days?) boost in price from a TA sentiment change.

    As would be expected, the oscillators I follow reacted strongly - all went decidedly more negative in attitude. Stochastic went to extremely oversold at a %K reading of ~1.28, as did RSI at ~29 while Williams %R fought the trend and went up slightly to -97.53%. Keep in mind while we were in that long down trend we didn't see price respond by moving higher very often after %R suggested that was in the cards. However, just before we started our up trend, %R did bottom 5 days before we began our grind up and a subsequent %R low reading was eventually (11 days) followed by price moves up, so this is a change from what often happened in the down trend - usually only small rises were seen of short duration. Our up moves were generally longer and stronger.

    The big spike in volume makes me think we've seen capitulation and are now positioned for the up move to begin. We were 92K above the 25-day average, which included some high-volume days from the second through third weeks of January. It was also almost double the prior days volume, missing only by ~47K. We should spend no more than a few days "basing" before seeing an attempt to move back to the trading channel area, where I expect we'll see a pause. That should be around the $0.325 area if it takes a week.

    On my experimental charts stuff, average trades size moved solidly to the mid-point of what I think is "retail" (bear in mind the 100K trade - ~22% of the days volume). Even discounting that, we'd be in the low mid-range I think, at 4.8K.

    A pleasing sign, to me, is the continued deterioration in the correlations of the long-term trend lines for the price down to the 56%-58% range. At some point I need t add some shorter-term trend lines to track the new trend because the long-term ones will be too old and slow moving to be of any use.

    My experimental inflection point calculations continue to move more strongly towards a negative attitude. But they did their job and gave a signal, by my interpretation, a couple days before the move down fully developed and gave me the confidence to say it would happen in a day or two. So now I switch to watching for a signal of coming upside.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    02/13/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 74, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol 450402, AvTrSz: 6087
    Min. Pr: 0.2990, Max Pr: 0.3240, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.3054
    # Buys, Shares: 35 128664, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3133
    # Sells, Shares: 37 220638, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3032
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 101100, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3002
    Buy:Sell 1:1.71 (28.6% "buys"), DlyShts 37600 (8.35%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 17.04%

    I posted a separate comment about the second consecutive day with a late-day 100K trade @ $0.30 trying to figure out what seems the most likely scenario.

    Yesterday (Wed.) I said I expected the price to challenge the 200-day SMA in the next day or two and that I didn't expect any bounce without a challenge to our rising support line. I mention this only because I get comfort when things act as I expect - it suggests I have a handle on what's going on and I might suffer with fewer incorrect decisions.

    Anyway, price challenged the 200-day SMA ($0.3181) and blew right past it and our rising support, an "overshoot" as I've been suggesting would occur. So now we need (want) to see a bounce up occur, hopefully in just a few days. We can't reliably assess the effect or number of any remaining 100K block trades we've seen. So there is some risk that it won't come back as quickly to the rising support (now resistance ~$0.318) as we might have expected (hoped for?). If there is more to go, the MMs should be holding price >=$0.30 so they can short at the higher price and then cover their short position (possible - evidence doesn't indicate they are shorting) with the 100K block. Since tomorrow is Friday, we might not see any evidence of this - the MM might be more cautious about shorting into the long weekend or the seller might be thinking of the long weekend.

    The 50-day SMA ($0.3157) is going to go flat for a day or two if price stays flat in this range. This puts the "Golden Cross" out about two more days - middle of next week looks likely if price stays flat. It'll be interesting to see if it provides any immediate (a couple of days?) boost in price from a TA sentiment change.

    As would be expected, the oscillators I follow reacted strongly - all went decidedly more negative in attitude. Stochastic went to extremely oversold at a %K reading of ~1.28, as did RSI at ~29 while Williams %R fought the trend and went up slightly to -97.53%. Keep in mind while we were in that long down trend we didn't see price respond by moving higher very often after %R suggested that was in the cards. However, just before we started our up trend, %R did bottom 5 days before we began our grind up and a subsequent %R low reading was eventually (11 days) followed by price moves up, so this is a change from what often happened in the down trend - usually only small rises were seen of short duration. Our up moves were generally longer and stronger.

    The big spike in volume makes me think we've seen capitulation and are now positioned for the up move to begin. We were 92K above the 25-day average, which included some high-volume days from the second through third weeks of January. It was also almost double the prior days volume, missing only by ~47K. We should spend no more than a few days "basing" before seeing an attempt to move back to the trading channel area, where I expect we'll see a pause. That should be around the $0.325 area if it takes a week.

    On my experimental charts stuff, average trades size moved solidly to the mid-point of what I think is "retail" (bear in mind the 100K trade - ~22% of the days volume). Even discounting that, we'd be in the low mid-range I think, at 4.8K.

    A pleasing sign, to me, is the continued deterioration in the correlations of the long-term trend lines for the price down to the 56%-58% range. At some point I need t add some shorter-term trend lines to track the new trend because the long-term ones will be too old and slow moving to be of any use.

    My experimental inflection point calculations continue to move more strongly towards a negative attitude. But they did their job and gave a signal, by my interpretation, a couple days before the move down fully developed and gave me the confidence to say it would happen in a day or two. So now I switch to watching for a signal of coming upside.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily posts above.

    02/13/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 31, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol 247690, AvTrSz: 7990
    Min. Pr: 0.3200, Max Pr: 0.3270, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3214
    # Buys, Shares: 11 36690, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3245
    # Sells, Shares: 19 201000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3208
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3208
    Buy:Sell 1:5.48 (14.8% "buys"), DlyShts 33300 (13.44%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 16.57%

    We now have a very short-term descending triangle formed by three days of $0.32 lows with descending highs. Since Bulkowski deals with longer-term stuff, I shouldn't cite him here. But if I did, it wouldn't be bullish.

    We formed a Black Marubozu candlestick, described as "an extremely strong bearish candlestick pattern", but it's in the low reliability category and requires confirmation, per Candlesticker.com, http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs22.asp. Essentially, this is in agreement with Bulkowski, who says it "acts as a continuation candle 53% of the time, which I consider "near random."" http://thepatternsite.com/BlackMarubozu.html

    I'm not seeing anything making me want to bet on the other 47% occurring.

    Although volume weakened a bit today (down about 21K) it's still "strong" relative to recent consolidation volumes, being well above the "bottom" of the cup pattern formed by the volume highs. This is NOT suggesting that we have bottomed. Daily short sales almost tripled in spite of the lower volume but are still only a small percentage.

    Just FYI: average trade would be much weaker if the single 100K trade (a "sell @ $0.3201 @ 15:43:04) had not occurred. We would have ended with 30 trades with an average trade size of 4,764, into the lower range of what I think is retail. We also would have ended with a big volume drop. As it is, we show an average trade size near the higher end of what I believe is retail.

    Including that 100K trade, we had only 8 trades >= 10K.

    The 200-day SMA at EOD is $0.3193. I expect price to challenge this tomorrow. I've mentioned before the behavior I expect, near-term, so I'll forgo iterating that here. The 50-day SMA is $0.3162 at EOD. It'll take a few days more for the fabled "Golden Cross" to occur. So I don't expect any "bounce" without at least a touch of our rising channel support, currently ~$0.3165 as near as I can judge.

    All oscillators, except the MFI, are below neutral and going more bearish. The MFI is headed there. Stochastic is into oversold, where it will remain for some days I think. Williams %R is maxed (or "minimumed? ;0) out at -100%, also an oversold indicator. As mentioned before, it's often an indicator of reversal but often (with our stock) leaves that area with no price appreciation occurring.

    My experimental 13-period Bollinger band now has a $0.0125 spread. Can we say SPROING? With a price spread today of 0.844%, I think we better learn how to pronounce that. As mentioned before, I do expect an overshoot of the rising support.

    On my experimental charts stuff, just a few notes. The three averages for buy:sell are all trending down now, but still in a normal range around the 50% mark. I believe my experimental inflection points are now signaling lower - the pattern has progressed to the point that I have only a very small amount of uncertainty left in my mind now.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection are in the latest daily post above.

    02/12/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 47, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 23930, Vol 269141, AvTrSz: 5726
    Min. Pr: 0.3200, Max Pr: 0.3300, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3215
    # Buys, Shares: 17 61639, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3236
    # Sells, Shares: 30 207502, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3208
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:3.37 (22.9% "buys"), DlyShts 12439 (4.62%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 5.99%

    On the traditional TA front, I <think> the move I've been expecting is beginning. We had the larger price spreads two days out of the last 4 with "cupping" volume 7 days and slightly higher volume again (+ ~ 6K) today, continuing the "cupping" in the volume. We've gotten a high which couldn't go above the prior close coming after this stuff too. Finally, all the oscillators I watch are in agreement - all weakening. Only Williams %R, at -100, is at an extreme where we look for reversal. That can go low and recover though without seeing any change in price direction for a long time. We have many occurrences of that on the charts.

    I expect tomorrow or the next day to see price penetrate the 200-day SMA, $0.3198 at EOD today. This should put us in position to test the rising support of our "grind up" channel, around $0.315. It's not uncommon to get a bit of overshoot even if a bounce off support occurs. Whether it would "bounce" the same day or the next couple days, if it is going to, I can't say. Since we really have no idea of who the sellers are right now we can't even make a SWAG about their potential behavior or reasons, other than raking some off the table.

    I do think we have a good handle on potential buyers though - Axionista or not. If they have been following either the discussions and news here in the APCs, or following the charts, they certainly have reason to see any dip as a good buying opportunity. The question is whether the bottom-feeding mentality is dominant or John's thoughts on "those days are pretty much over" holds sway. For me, it's the latter.

    This seems supported by the rising trading channel, which hadn't been seen for a long time, apparently holding strong since November of last year. CAVEAT: in a PM with one of the regulars a possible (but I don't judge it as likely yet) ascending broadening wedge was identified. These break down 73% of the time, per Bulkowski. Reminder: I don't see it as likely yet and it's pretty early in development. For now I think the rising trading channel is the path being followed.

    On my experimental charts stuff, daily short volume and percentage retreats again, average trade size stays right there in the mid-range of what I believe to be retail, buy:sell weakens substantially, and we continue to see numbers of trades above what had been seen for a while that are sized >= 10K - today 16 of them.

    These were mostly "sells" in the $0.3200-$0.3250 range (3 "buys"). They totaled 206K @ VWAP of $0.3210 and represented 76.55% of the day's volume. The questions become "does several days of larger blocks trading, increasing volume, in this sideways-to-lower scenario indicate the nearing end of the sellers", or "is it indicating increased selling to come", and/or "will it spook some less determined longs to dump or trigger stops".

    I think the directional answer may be in my experimental inflection point calculations, which continue to weaken. The development of the pattern signaling a down move is much stronger now in my original version. The versions designed to consider other stuff to help eliminate some of the "flakiness" seen in the original are also showing a likely down move.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    02/11/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 43, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 34500, Vol 262950, AvTrSz: 6115
    Min. Pr: 0.3200, Max Pr: 0.3395, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3302
    # Buys, Shares: 24 107350, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3325
    # Sells, Shares: 19 155600, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3286
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.45 (40.8% "buys"), DlyShts 39950 (15.19%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 25.67%

    On the traditional TA front, another day of interesting action suggesting a move is near. Looking at volume over the last 7 days, the "cupping" continues. Those readings, in thousands were: 248, 212, 76, 79, 148, 170 and 263.

    We also had another day of increased volatility to support that seen two days ago which first suggested a coming move of some kind. Today's was more volatile, having a 6.09% spread, $0.32 - $0.3395. The volume distribution in price ranges was well distributed:
    $0.3200-$0.3245, 041400, 15.74%, VWAP $0.3227, 09:30-10:59
    $0.3279-$0.3299, 049700, 18.90%, VWAP $0.3288, infrequently throughout the day
    $0.3300-$0.3330, 134400, 51.11%, VWAP $0.3304, frequently throughout the day
    $0.3379-$0.3395, 037450, 14.24%, VWAP $0.3394, 09:30-11:02

    It looks like a bell curve distribution. We closed pretty-much at the mid-point of the day's range.

    Price briefly penetrated the 200-day SMA from Friday of $0.3208, but only 7,900 shares at 10:59 after trading ~43K at $0.3300-$0.3301, and price moved right back to $0.3379.

    As we might expect with this intra-day volatility, the oscillators I watch are mixed, mostly neutral in their readings and not to be relied upon at this time. Three remained consistent in their disagreement: stochastic continued to weaken to just below neutral; the DI+ component of the ADX (still low at 21) continued to rise (but DI+ is still below 30 at 27); the MFI reversed course again and is just below the overbought area, reading ~67.2. So there's not yet consistent suggestion of a trend up. Only the MFI, which is supposed to be leading is saying a move up is likely.

    I think we are now entering medium-term consolidation and trying to exit that status. Last time we got there, we exited pretty quickly. My experimental 13-period Bollinger bands are showing a $0.018 spread, $0.3156-$0.3336, so the intra-day VWAP is near to pushing on the upper limit. The conventional expectation would be for a move towards the center around $0.3250. The standard 20-period readings are $0.3033 and $0.368. This would suggest a movement to ~$0.337 from our current levels, using conventional wisdom.

    My original rising support is around $0.314. With the volatility seen twice in the last four days, I wouldn't be surprised to see this support tested soon. The 50-day SMA is right there too - $0.3149.

    On my experimental stuff, daily shorts up a little bit, average trade size is right back to the longer-term averages and what I think is roughly the middle of retail trade sizes. We had 10 trades of >= 10K spread throughout the price range of $0.3220-$0.3395. The larger trade sizes have been showing up for three days now. Buy percentage weakened, overall, in spite of a small move up in VWAP.

    My original experimental inflection point calculations are all weakening and I believe are suggesting price wants to weaken. My newer ones are in the same state. None have completed the "pattern" I want to see yet. But I think they are edging closer to that set up. If my prior assessment that we should move a bit lower, briefly break support and recover quickly is correct, I don't think they'll make the full signal. These calculations have, in the past, warned of even small moves a day or two in advance of the occurrence of those moves. With the support line, the 50-day SMA and my experimental Bollingers where they are, I can't imagine a large move down will occur.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    02/08/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 28, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 17500, Vol 170389, AvTrSz: 6085
    Min. Pr: 0.3246, Max Pr: 0.3289, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3263
    # Buys, Shares: 15 114389, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3265
    # Sells, Shares: 13 56000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3258
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.04:1 (67.1% "buys"), DlyShts 22205 (13.03%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 39.65%

    Well, it's starting to get interesting now. On Thursday I noted "... what I think is the first stirrings suggesting a move is nearing". I couldn't see a direction suggested, but one of the factors suggesting that, volume increase and a wider spread, continues to to suggest it - volume continued to increase. In thousands for the last six days they are 248, 212, 76, 79, 148 and 170. Visually, this makes a "cupping" pattern, which I've mentioned in the past as one of the things that suggest a move may be imminent.

    Unfortunately, the traditional TA stuff is not suggesting upward movement at this time. All the oscillators I watch, except the ADX and related, continue their very slow deterioration. From two days ago (Wed.), RSI is down to 47.87 from 51.52, accum/distr is at -28.32 from -11.47 and momentum at 0.9909 from 1.051. Others are behaving similarly, notably the stochastic which shows the signal crossing below the average. One that behaved slightly differently is the MFI, which tried to move up Thursday, but fell lower Friday. So, as I mentioned before, the ADX and related get no respect here from the others.

    Although the MACD histogram has started to improve, it's still in the negative territory and not yet moved to where it could suggest a rise - at least it's suggesting a reducing downward bias though. But it would be dicey, IMO, to read "bullishness" into it at this time. It does appear that the longer-term trend of reducing negative readings seems to be still in play.

    The only thing I see which says we should move up is the "standard" 20-period Bollinger Band. It's mid-point right now is $0.3376 and a normal scenario is that price has an affinity for that mid-point when it's "far away". Conversely, my experimental 13-period band has price almost right in the middle, ~$0.3251, with the $0.3260 close Friday. Those experimental ones are rapidly converging, suggesting the "pinch-induced" move should be appearing shortly. Not quite there yet - our spread is $0.0271, which is relatively wide for the "consolidation" action seen, for the most part.

    Finishing up on the "traditional TA" side, the "new" faster-rising potential support line I mentioned a while back seems destined to "fail" unless price appreciates in the next day. If it doesn't we can take that line, which rises ~$0.011/week, out of play. That will leave the support line originating back in November, currently ~$0.311 and rising ~$0.01/week, the now very slowly rising 50-day SMA ($0.3141) and the rising lower Bollinger ($0.3121) as our potential supports if a brief (my expectation) down move occurs. Allowing for typical "overshoots", I would think that somewhere in the mid $0.30 would be our low point before starting the next leg up in our "grind up" scenario.

    Keep in mind that in that "starting the next leg up in our grind up scenario" there's a lot of reliance on the behavior within this rising trading channel "rhyming". The last leg down was followed by a sideways range for ~9 days and the break into the next up-leg occurred with a brief move down, to $0.271 (slightly below the lows of that sideways consolidation), on the same day starting the run up to highs of mid-$0.34 and then $0.38 over seven trading days.

    If all this doesn't start to happen in the next couple days, I think we enter medium-term consolidation and end up waiting for our rising support line to come up and meet price, which would take another week or so if price holds steady in the current range. This would be about the same time the 50-day SMA would intersect our price range, plus or minus a day or two, and cross above the 200-day SMA, which is at $0.3208 and falling. We are, so far, holding our trading range above that for the last seven days, not being "dragged" down.

    Moving to my experimental charts stuff, volume increased 15% and daily short sales increased 188% over yesterday's readings, continuing it's erratic vacillation in the low absolute volume (22.2K) and percentage range, 13.03% today.

    We've had other factors that exhibit a behavior similar to that of the trading volume discussed up in the traditional TA area. I think this also suggests a move is nearing.

    Hm, I just noticed that daily shorts are doing this too, in thousands: 26.40, 13.50, 11.47, 9.35, 7.70 and 22.21. Anyway ...

    Average trade size is "cupping", with these values over the same period as the volume "cupping": 5,901, 5,725, 3,778, 3,288, 5,681 and 6,085. These last two readings are in what I think is mid-retail size and we've had the second consecutive day with the number of 10K and larger blocks being substantially above what has been "normal" for our recent "consolidation". We have moved above the average trade size 10-day average (4,760) and are now in the range seen in the 25, 50 and 100-day averages: 6,004, 6,166 and 6,125 respectively.

    The buy percentages are similar: 65.9, 63.3, 47.2, 36.1, 58.9 and 67.1.

    Intra-day VWAP is not cooperating though: $0.3256, $0.3266, $0.3266, $0.3228, $0.3302 and $0.3263.

    On my experimental original inflection point calculations, the consolidation around the zero-mark continues with the three shorter-term values, 5, 10 and 25-days, all above zero and continuing to become more positive over the last three days. Looking at my later versions, which include other factors in two different ways, they are in a similar positive configuration, but not strengthening as much. This is what was intended for them - remove some of the "volatility" that made me describe the original as "flaky". My near-term assessment is that all versions are transitioning to signal an upward movement. If this continues for another day or two with the same degree of strengthening, I'll be calling a bullish move indicated.

    I hope it doesn't start before I holler it - most of the numbers are there and it's just my caution about relying too much on my experimental stuff that prevents me opening my yap now. Seriously, I want another day or so before I get "convinced".

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    02/07/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 26, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 147700, AvTrSz: 5681
    Min. Pr: 0.3250, Max Pr: 0.3395, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3302
    # Buys, Shares: 15 86955, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3304
    # Sells, Shares: 11 60745, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3299
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.43:1 (58/9% "buys), DlyShts 7700 (5.21%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 12.68%

    First, I want to note that we saw what I think is the first stirrings suggesting a move is nearing. Through the first 45K of trades and 11:23:33 today we had a 1/100th penny spread - $0.3299 - $0.33. Subsequently the spread widened to $0.0145, 4.46%, with a low of $0.3250 and a high of $0.3395 (but only 600 shares). This is something I mentioned a few days back that I wanted to see to suggest a move is near. If w take the high as an aberration and just look at the high that had some volume, $0.3350, we get a ~3.1% spread, which still is a big enough change from recent behavior to suggest a move is near.

    Also notable in this action is that we got a higher low and higher high than yesterday. This is normally bullish, but since we closed well off our high and close to our low, with price falling from the high of $0.3395 at 12:03:39 (only 600 shares too!) to close at $0.3269, below yesterday's close of $0.33, I can't say this suggests bullishness. Add in that the trades below $0.33 at the end of the day ($0.3350 and $0.3369), from 14:45 forward, totaled 53K shares. So there was definite demonstrated weakness into the close.

    Since that high was on few shares, I looked to see if the rest of the action suggests anything. Prior to that $0.3395 high the VWAP was $0.3320 on ~75K shares. Subsequent to that trade the VWAP was $0.3282 on ~72K shares. So we did have weakness into the close as price subsequent to that trade went from $0.3349 down to $0.325 and $0.3269 at the close.

    On the oscillators I watch, the MFI went almost to overbought, reading ~75.241, bullish. Unfortunately it gets no support except in an early cross of the DI+ above the DI-, with those and the ADX all at low levels where they don't really offer any strong support yet. The MFI is supposed to be a leading indicator though, so maybe it will prove correct. Me? I'm doubtful of its reliability.

    The rest of the oscillators I watch all weakened a bit from yesterday. They are all small moves, but are consistent with each other and consistently a reversal from the very short-term moves up they had been trying to make.

    So I don't see a bullish move, yet, in these things.

    Last, we had some volume come back - unfortunately on a down day. It's not large volume, but it increased 87.2% and that's what counts.

    Leaving the traditional stuff behind ...

    Our VWAP did move up 2.29%. If that carries more weight than closes, we have some bullishness there. I don't know that it should carry more weight though because most people don't watch VWAP - they watch closing prices and would be more likely, I think, to respond to those. Since it is the response of people we are trying to anticipate, I think assuming little, if any, bullish sentiment would be the wise course here.

    The average trade size moved up into what I think is mid-retail size and we saw more trades up around the 10K area than had been common recently. Buy:sell is in normal range, and both daily short and trade volume and are still low.

    Something caught my eye that I think bodes well moving forward. I should have expected it since I had been talking "grind up" since mid-November.

    If you look at my price chart (or a standard one for that matter), there is a pattern that had not been seen previously since my charts began in February of 2012. We had a couple nice legs up that were not followed by a retreat to below the up-legs' lows. This is a big change in behavior. It's big enough and sustained enough that the descending long-term trend lines on my charts have retreated from the correlation highs of ~82/83 down to the 59/60 range for many days (2 weeks or so?) now. We see instead the down legs after an up leg revert to somewhere above the prior leg's low and settle around a 50% re-trace price and hold strongly. If this is the new pattern, which my "grind up" scenario would suggest, the next sustained move should be to the upside. There might be a small pocket of fearful longs that could dump out (suggested by the weakness mentioned in the price action discussion above) and cause a brief spike down, but it should be quickly followed by a recovery in price.

    This suggests far greater upside than downside risk is the scenario now.

    Finally, my original experimental inflection point calculations are still in disarray, but now most are consolidating near the 0 line. If this consolidation continues, it will be setting up to possibly signal a move shortly. My later versions, which include factors beyond just buy:sell and trade volume, are doing the same. Direction of likely move isn't discernible yet. I'll be keeping an eye on this.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    02/06/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 24, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 78900, AvTrSz: 3288
    Min. Pr: 0.3210, Max Pr: 0.3300, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3228
    # Buys, Shares: 12 28450, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3240
    # Sells, Shares: 12 50450, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3221
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.77 (36.1% "buys"), DlyShts 9350 (11.85%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 18.53%

    Most of the day was BORING! But we did get one little thing that got my adrenalin up a bit. For the first time in a long while saw some suggestion that the sellers might be getting exhausted at this price level. It was based on TEJS and ATDF asks at $0.3225 and $0.3250 getting taken out and exposing best offers of $0.33 at ~15:00, which held steady and was accompanied by two trades at that price totaling 5K at $0.33 to close the day.

    <sigh> Could've been stronger than 5K on the volume, but Hey! Got to bask in the little ray of sunshine when we see it, right? OK, back to work ...

    Our spread was 2.8%, our volume was abysmal, our average trade size stunk, the buy:sell was to the bearish side (but not excessively) ... Exactly what you might look for if (short-term?) consolidation might be about to end.

    We continued to trade predominately above the descending 200-day SMA ($0.3222 yesterday), as indicated by our VWAP. But it was a squeaker. ADX and related are continuing to trend negative. Accumulation/distribution, MFI, RSI and momentum oscillators are a smidgen above neutral now, while Williams %R and stochastic have entered overbought territory. I think these latter two being where they are while everything else is neutral and volume and price are doing what they are doing might be a negative sign ... or a positive sign.

    If they foretell a move down to our rising support, you may see that as bad. I see it as good because I think we should bounce off that and finally start our next leg up. Currently that support looks to be at $0.31. Allow a little overshoot into the mid-to-high $0.30xx range?

    A possible good sign from those two are that I've noticed that often when stochastic gets to overbought it can hang there quite a while and we note a price rise that accompanies that situation. But usually that rise has begun and been dragging many other oscillators along with it.

    We don't have that situation so I don't know how to view it. I do think some kind of move is now quite near.

    On my experimental charts stuff, pretty much status quo. Very small average trade size, buy:sell "normal" right in range of all averages, low volume and low daily short sales.

    The original inflection point calculations are still in a state of disarray, albeit with a slightly increased negative bias or decreased positive bias on four periods and slightly improved readings on two periods. The two going more positive are the 5 and 10-day periods, so there is some possibility the patterns will return to starting to form up for a positive signal issuance. But I've learned that our current configuration is not a good place to try and make a call on what's next.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    02/05/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 20, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 23100, Vol 75565, AvTrSz: 3778
    Min. Pr: 0.3204, Max Pr: 0.3300, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3266 (same as yesterday)
    # Buys, Shares: 12 35665, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3238
    # Sells, Shares: 8 39900, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3291
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.12 (47.2% "buys"), DlyShts 11465 (15.17%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 28.73%

    Today we had, for the 19th time, the VWAP sell price above the VWAP buy price - $0.3291 vs. $0.3238. The history of what follows such occurrences (IP = already in progress):
    - price rise follows 3/22/12, 4/2/12, 10/4-10/5/12 (NYSE:IP), 11/12/12, 11/19 (IP?), 1/7 & 1/9/13 (IP)
    - price flat follows 6/20/12
    - price drop follows 4/13/12, 4/23/12, 7/11/12, 7/24/12, 10/18/12, 10/26/12 (IP), 12/11-12/12/12 (IP), 1/14/13

    So we have seven occurrences where a price rise either continued or began shortly after the occurrences and eight times a drop either continued or started shortly after the occurrences. The only conclusion from that is we likely won't go flat.

    However, 3 of the rises came in the latter part of 2012 when we had entered the low $0.3x range and two more in 2013 when we were well ensconced in my beloved "grind up". We can't easily compare that to the drops because only one is in 2013 and we are in an up trend, overall. But we can note that six of the drops occurred prior to beginning the "grind up".

    Combining all that, AND NOTHING ELSE, I would say we're more likely to go up. But that's not the way my mind works.

    First, on the traditional TA front we see a continued "consolidation" apparently in progress with continued weakening volume and still-tight spreads occurring all at or below $0.33 and a couple lows in the $0.3156 in the last week. We are "stuck" around the 200-day SMA, yesterday $0.3227, as it continues to slowly drop. I think we were fortunate to have a close above that today. The oscillators continue mixed with only the stochastic in bullish territory. Momentum is almost exactly neutral, 1.004, and the ADX related stuff is weakening. MFI and accumulation are moving upward but not in bullish territory.

    The new very short-term falling resistance I had recently added is out of play as we've moved sideways long enough that it was left behind. It'll take a couple days to see if any other very short-term resistance can be identified.

    If I stopped there, I would suggest price weakening further based on what the ADX and related are doing: the ADX, DI- and DI+ are all weakening. But this can be just the effect of flat price.

    On my experimental stuff, average trade size is below what I think is retail, buy:sell is right in the average range, daily shorts continue low but climbing, as has been the recent behavior, and VWAP remains slightly above the falling 200-day SMA of $0.3217. My original inflection point calculations have broken the pattern of "forming up" to signal a rise. From here they may start forming up to signal a rise or drop or continue as "broken", suggesting it's not forming up for anything. My newer versions are in the same state.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    02/04/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 37, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 27500, Vol 211835, AvTrSz: 5725
    Min. Pr: 0.3200, Max Pr: 0.3289, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3266
    # Buys, Shares: 18 134055, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3278
    # Sells, Shares: 19 77780, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3247
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.72:1 (63.3% "buys"), 1.72:1 DlyShts 13500 (6.37%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 17.36%

    Well, essentially another sideways day with volume continuing to weaken and no big price spread appearing. We "wrapped" the 200-day SMA, $0.3232 yesterday, continued to have a VWAP and close above it. The oscillators I watch continued to benefit from the lack of downward pressure and most are at a pretty much neutral reading with an upward bias. But these are not bullish indicators yet.

    With pressure on hiatus, the MACD histogram has begun to recover a bit. But this also is not yet a bullish indicator.

    Tomorrow might be important - there's a short-term descending resistance defined by a line from the high of 1/15 and now touches at the highs of 1/17, 1/21 and 2/4 (today). We also have a "Dragonfly Doji", which is followed by a reversal ... 50% of the time, or randomly! Even if we did reverse, where would we go? We've been sideways and all I can see is going backwards towards January! :))

    But it does signal uncertainty and I do give weight to that descending resistance as something to be watched. Especially with pps just below $0.33 - an old nemesis. It's looking a lot like that potential new rising support may be a wash out and our older one, at ~$0.305 as of yesterday, might be the one to watch. We should know in another day or two for sure.

    On my experimental charts, average trade size remains in what I believe is the low-to-mid area of retail, buy:sell back to normal range, daily short sales continue low, and the inflection point calculations continue to "form up", but don't signal any pending move yet. They are showing a mild upward bias is all ATM.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    02/01/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 42, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 35500, Vol 247850, AvTrSz: 5901
    Min. Pr: 0.3200, Max Pr: 0.3295, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3256
    # Buys, Shares: 27 154650, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3257
    # Sells, Shares: 15 93200, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3255
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.66:1 (65.9% "buys"), DlyShts 26400 (10.65%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 28.33%

    Well, today was better than yesterday. Had some volume come back, traded mostly above yesterday's 200-day SMA of $0.3237 and closed above it as well. Normally folks would see this as bullish, and it may be. But I recognize that we're above the 200-day only because it is dropping, so I've put away the party favors for now. Another complaint I have is the narrow spread - I look to see a bigger spread if we're getting ready to go somewhere.

    Now that we've been in this price range 5 days I can voice that which I've been trying to avoid ... short-term consolidation. I can't speak for you but I really do get tired of it even though I know it's a normal part of my beloved "grind up", which I firmly believe is well underway.

    The readings for the oscillators I watch are better today - all made slight moves up. None are yet in bullish territory though and we know that we've been getting whipsawed due to the low volume. Today's volume was better but still below 3 of my averages of, in thousands, 235, 436, 391 and 364 for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day SMAs. So I would be cautious about reading much into the oscillator swings.

    Next week we should know if the new faster-rising trading channel support is in play. This week has seen trading right around it, but we've been sideways. If we continue sideways next week the price will be below that line and we can take it out of play. Today it's ~$0.3242 and rises about $0.011/week, about 10% faster than the old one. If the new one is not in play, that means our old one from November is still controlling. Today that support is ~$0.3035 and rises roughly $0.01/week.

    The last thing on the traditional front is the MACD - the histogram seems to have given up a good part of the strength that DRich first noticed a few weeks back. But I believe it's temporary as we do this sideways thing, with some small dips and bounces, until we hit our support, and overshoot a little bit, and start our next leg up.

    On my experimental stuff, it's refreshing to see average trade size back into the low-to-mid retail range. I also like that the VWAP is above its 200-day SMA of $0.3227, but keep in mind the average is dropping so we can't read much into this other than at least we aren't being dragged down (yet?).

    My experimental inflection point calculations have reduced their rate of weakening, one of the stages in the set up for signaling a coming rise. As is common at this stage, a couple longer-term ones have started curling up, supporting the five-day's trend up which has been underway since 1/28. Today the 5-day crossed above zero - an early indication that a rise will be coming if the other periods start rising in concert and then the five-day rolls over ... normally. But, as always, it's early yet and we must wait for the configuration to appear.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

    Additional disclosure: I am very experimental, still learning TA and am not very conservative in my trading. But I am conservative regarding my confidence in what I'm learning and my attempts to share with others what I think I see coming. Your own DD is mandatory.

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Comments (11)
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  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4152) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL!
    2 Feb 2013, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    ^
    5 Feb 2013, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    Lot of work embodied in those charts, HT. Thanks for sharing.

     

    I've misplaced the TA reference volume you were kind enough to provide some time back. Could I trouble you for the volume name and author one more time? I've recently acquired Bulknowski's "Getting Started in Chart Patterns" but think I probably need something with a more statistical/mathematical orientation to completion/supplement it.

     

    2 Feb 2013, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » D-Inv: Are sure it was me? I don't recall posting much other than a link to Bulkowski's stuff on the web. He has quite a few books and I think several of them are more statistical than the one you picked.

     

    Here's the link to his site and you can click through the links to read a synopsis of his books and comments by others as well.

     

    http://bit.ly/MicL1r

     

    HTH,
    HardToLove
    3 Feb 2013, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    :-) Must have been you, HT, because that is what I thought and I am never wrong about anything except when not correct.

     

    Thanks for the link.
    3 Feb 2013, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » After finally getting enough data for the charts to potentially become useful to folks other than myself, I've taken a "snapshot" that will remain fixed.

     

    The daily charts will now become a moving window, dropping older data as new is added. I'm thinking that a window size of around 9 months might be about right. This will give a little more granularity - thoughts welcomed.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    25 Feb 2013, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3926) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for setting up the snapshot record, HTL. The moving window sounds good. Why 9 months rather than any other time frame?
    25 Feb 2013, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » D-Inv: the number of squiggles was increasing within the unchanging amount of real estate, making it harder to detect small moves of the individual lines - a visual "loss of granularity". I thought it might be better to keep more granularity.

     

    I don't know if 1 year or 9 months or ... is "about right", but it seemed a reasonable starting point.

     

    HardToLove
    25 Feb 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • pascquale
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    What's the status of the golden cross John and you were expecting in the not too distant past?
    Thanks
    27 Feb 2013, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Pascquale: I mention it, although not by name, in the latest daily post above. The 50-day has again crossed above the 200-day SMA. It's prior recent cross, a couple days back also addressed that day, couldn't hold as we had price edge down a bit. If price stays at our above the current range for just a few days, it's locked in I think.

     

    Do be aware that the ideal cross would be with both averages rising, but that's not mandatory AFAIK. And it may not be all that common - I've never checked.

     

    HardToLove
    28 Feb 2013, 05:20 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17297) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » New version, dated 3/1/2013, with a couple new links in the header, is available here.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    2 Mar 2013, 01:43 PM Reply Like
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