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H. T. Love
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Spent over 30 years in computer systems work, many different functions. Owned my own business for awhile. Got tired of it (managing employees is not my baliwick) and stopped doing it professionally. Did other things, off and on, for some more years and finally bumped into this investing/trading... More
  • (GWMGF): A short-term technical look 39 comments
    Mar 27, 2011 6:21 PM | about stocks: GWMGF
    4/3/11
    (OTCQX:GWMGF): Time for a little update.
    A little recap of recent action includes the release, at 10:30 in the morning of 3/31/11 of “bad” news about Great Western abandoning efforts on the Deep Sands project. This “tanked” the price, taking it as low as $0.83 that day with a close at $0.8429.
    Just that morning I had posted a comment, begun on the prior day, 3/30, that said, in part, “At some point an attempt to move towards $0.83 will be made, but will fail. There's too many support points under the price now for it to get to $0.83 again … unless there's either a catalyst or a general REE sector market move downward. Technical traders of every bent will see too many indicators that say buy, due to these rising indicators“.
    So much for excellent timing. There was, indeed, a “catalyst” and it did move to $0.83.
    Not realizing that the EOQ/EOY results were to be also released that evening, I later commented:
    Offsetting all that is "reversion to the mean", ... well sort of.
    Today's range was larger than recent normal and often it will tend to migrate back to the middle of a "big" move. But it can take a few days to accomplish that feat.
    OK. The set up is done and some might want to review some of the prior comments by all the folks below so that assessments about what I'm posting now can be done.
    The earnings PR was apparently well received because on 4/1 we did “revert to the mean”, much sooner that I had expected, it being I was unaware of the reporting – a major oversight on my part.
    But more significant is that during the down day of 3/31 we didn't violate $0.83.
    Further, we didn't get to $0.83 until 14:01 after a long, slow, low-volume grind downward. Then it was just bouncing between $0.83 and $0.8499 on low volume (many minutes with 0 trades). The range narrowed further at 14:47 and finally got to $0.83/$0.84 just before the EOD move up was done at 15:42, just 18 minutes prior to the close.
    At that minute, 108K shares traded at $0.85/$0.8535. No more shares traded until 15:53. Then 23.68K traded, 2.5K at $0.85 and the rest at $0.90. The last trade was 4 minutes before the close – 5.5K at $0.8429/$0.85 and we closed at $0.8429.
    The next day, 4/1, was interesting in several respects.
    The most significant thing was that it had a higher open, low and close, although the high was lower at $0.89. But the volume, 866.84K, was substantially higher than the prior down day's volume of 762.51K. Should that carry the weight it would normally? I don't know, but consider …
    The day opened at $0.8575, moved as high as $0.877 by 10:10 and moved as low as $0.846 by 12:01. At 12:16 the price began a slow tortuous grind upwards on very low volume. By 14:32 we had traded only 197.16K shares. Then …
    At 14:32 a single block of 500K shares traded at $0.878. That's 57.7% of the day's volume.
    We traded the rest of the day on extremely low volume, dropping as low as $0.86 at 15:04 and rising rising to close at $0.89.
    I've been wondering, due to the very low volume, if price was being manipulated up. But there would be no need for the large block trades to do that when volume is so low. So, in this case at least, I don't think that's what it is.
    I think someone with a few extra pennies sees something that makes him or her think this stock is a good reason to lay out $439K plus fees.
    Should we follow the money? Well, let's see what the chart is telling us right now.
    Without repeating what has been posted before, I'll summarize it this way.
    The 10, 20, and 50 day SMAs are still rising and at $0.8714, $0.8376 and $0.8865 respectively. The 50 day may be again providing some support. The 10 day will be rising at least a few more days and the 20 will continue flat for a few more days. After that some older lower prices start dropping out of the window and it will start rising slowly. The 50 day has some rise left in it yet.
    We closed above our long-term rising support, which was ~$0.875 AFAICT on 4/1. That line is rising about $0.007/day.
    Our “Right-Angled and Descending Broadening Formation”, which is overall bullish if we break above it, is still in play.
    We still have mixed technical indicators with RSI, accum./distr., MFI, momentum, OBV and stochastic all starting to curl upwards again.
    The Bollinger bands are slightly converging and share prices is reasonably centered in the band.
    Only the ADX, DI+ and DI- are still trending slightly negative.
    Combined with the rising volume, it seems to me we ought to continue the painful slow creep upwards. But ...
    We have a new potentially bullish wrinkle in the chart pattern. Combined with the technical indicator positions noted above and what I describe below, I'm going to stick my neck out again (?? Yes, I've still got a sliver of one left!) and say tomorrow, Monday 4/4, we close above the resistance line of the triangle described below. This would be defined as a breakout to the upside and must be confirmed. Sometimes there's a throwback and reversal again, which leads to stronger performance, according to Bulkowski.
    I believe that this triangle is a continuation pattern rather than a reversal. Triangles can be either. My assessment is based on the combination of the technical indicators and volume improvements and a rising trend into the pattern.
    We have enough touch points now to define a falling right triangle. The horizontal demand (support) is at $0.83 (Fibonacci 50%) and/or $0.84 (prior and now recent support) and the falling supply (resistance) originates at the high of $0.969 on 3/25 and slopes to touch the highs of 3/30-4/1 (falling green line at the upper right of the price action). The negative slope of ~$0.016.day indicates price points of ~$0.874, ~$0.858, ~$0.843 and ~0.827 during the 4/4-4/7 (Mon-Thu) period.
    So, we must break out of the triangle Thursday since the apex will be there. Does that mean we have to move up or down? No. It just means there's the potential that we could break. But since most breaks occur between 66% and 75% of the lateral distance, we ought to cast a jaundiced eye on this if we don't get a break in the next two or three days.
    (Click to enlarge)
    GWMGF 20110401 Daily 120 day chart.
    Bulkowski points out that falling triangles are one of the top performers, 5 out of 23 where 1 is best. The average rise is 47% on a break to the upside with a throwback occurring about one-third of the time. The price target is met 84% of the time.
    But, the breakout is down 64% of the time – odds which are not too bad given the other positive indicators and support areas we've got. But with a rising price trend into the pattern the break is up 73% of the time. And if we don't break until Wednesday or so, the performance is likely to be much better.
    Using his measure rule, if we get a breakout up, we should expect the price to move up ~$0.117 from the resistance value at the time of the breakout. So, using the expected resistance levels from above, we could look for moves, over some time, to ~$0.99, ~$0.97, ~$0.96. I'm only listing three because if we don't break in the next few days I think the triangle effect is dead.
    Since this pattern is near the top of a recent run up, we likely won't see as strong a performance as we might expect. So we may have to take all those targets with a grain of salt.
    Add in that we have what seems to be strong resistance at $0.93/$0.94. We should expect at least a pause, and maybe a throwback, at that level. Keep in mind that throwbacks can hurt performance about a third of the time.
    We could breakout down. Price target would be ~$0.71/$0.72, near our Fibonacci 61.8% retrace point of $0.73.
    If it did do that, it still leaves our “Right-Angled and Descending Broadening Formation” in play with a potentially stronger run up, due to the higher low as compared to our prior falling lows, when the breakout to the up side from that pattern occurs.

    3/27/2011

    Something's happening here, what it is ain't exactly clear … (Buffalo Springfield)
     
    Well, that's not exactly true. What is happening is either a triple top, bearish in a bull market, or a textbook example of a Right-Angled and Descending Broadening Formation, per Bulkowski's definitions, a decidedly bullish pattern. See the Wonk Section for a complete discussion. 
    I'm new, chart settings are experimental, and maybe I should also be considered experimental! 
    So, take all this as raw data for your own deliberations! 
    SUMMARY 
    I believe we are about to make another leg down move, possibly abbreviated, as compared to the two prior down legs, because we now have several potential support points near the $0.83-$0.85 level. 
    Before continuing, bear in mind that there are many lower levels that may be achieved and I only consider the $0.83-$0.85 level as the most likely (heh, probably really the most desirable) reversal point. But this is by no means assured. 
    I'm thinking this is most likely because there are four cases where the ~$0.83/~$0.84 range has acted as resistance and/or support, the 20 day SMA (blue line) is $0.8389 and rising, the Fibonacci 50% is at ~$0.83, the lower Bollinger band (orange) is $0.8236 and rising and a potential trend support (long straight red) line is currently at ~$0.84 and rising ~$0.0067/day. We also have price action over a long period indicating trading range has done a reversion to the mean, we have seen that price has been trading around that level, on average, (details in the Wonk Section) which resides at $0.83, and action has been in a medium-term consolidation pattern. 
    Some other potential indicators of support include the fact that the 50 day SMA (yellow line) is at $0.8647 and rising (but we have no prior indication it has acted on the price action), we have the RSI lows and highs with a divergence up, as compared to price, and many of the other technical indicators are showing improving trends. 
    Last, we have a beautiful correlation to Bulkowski's Right-Angled and Descending Broadening Formation (defined by the top pink and pink sloping lines on the graphic), which is a bullish pattern if it completes.
    So, we should have an initial move down, followed by a reversal marching up towards that $0.93 level again as if we will make another top and reverse. But I think the chances are decent that we will keep going up from there. 
    But that is an iffy call since we don't know if we are near done with consolidation. I believe an early reversal from the downtrend we are going to start will be a positive indication that a break out is coming. Early in this case would be any substantial distance above a descending trend line currently at $0.59 and falling about ~$0.02/5 days and preferably above $0.6246 and $0.68, the lows of 3/15 and 2/23 respectively. 
    Other potential reversal points exist at ~$0.72-$0.75, $0.68, $0.62-$0.63 and one moving target currently at $0.59 and falling about 2 cents every 5 days. On a 5 day drop, it would be ~$0.57, in 10 days ~$0.55, etc. 
    WONK SECTION 
    At first I was convinced that we had the triple top going, but something didn't look right. I finally decided, after lots of investigation that the pattern couldn't reasonably qualify as a triple top because we had a down trend leading to the pattern and the “valleys” were too far askew from a common low price. Bulkowski notes that an uptrend should lead into the pattern and, he didn't say it but his sample pattern demonstrated it, the valleys should be about the same depth. Since this is a consolidation pattern that makes sense. 
    Also, the volume patterns, although almost as he stated they should be, didn't quite meet the “sniff” test. He says it trends downward 59% of the time, but is usually high beneath formation of each peak. 
    My best assessment is that the volume is relatively flat or trending slightly higher. And for each peak so far, the highest volume was achieved just prior to the peak itself, which consistently had noticeably slightly lower volume than the day preceding, even trending down a couple of days in one case. But I can't use this to disqualify the triple top as it is perfectly normal for volume to be lower as potential reversal points, which a top is, are achieved. 
    So although I couldn't disqualify a triple top, I had strong doubts. 
    So I kept digging and right there at the bottom of Bulkowski's triple top page on his site was “A broadening formation, right-angled and descending can also look like a triple top”. 
    So I meandered over there – it wasn't far, I just clicked through to the page – and “Voila”! The pattern matched exactly what I was seeing on the chart for GWMGF! 
    The light bulb came on! What I had not been able to see, likely because of my newness at this stuff, is that we had two effects going on that are common after big runs to the upside – a reversion to the mean and an intermediate-term (so far) consolidation. 
    Using the rise from the low $0.40 on 12/27/2010 and the all-time high of $1.26 on 2/3/2011, we have a range of $0.86 with a mid point of $0.83. And, of course, this is also a Fibonacci 50% re-trace point when using that same spread. 
    Can we confirm this reversion? Yes. Visually you can see a bias to be trading a range approximately equidistant above and below that level initially. We must allow for a little bias to the lower side because, as we know, prices usually tend to fall farther and faster than they rise. So with that slop allowed, we get a visual confirmation. 
    Do we have a mathematical confirmation of consolidation? Yes! 
    In a spreadsheet, taking the average mid-point price of the daily high and low across the span of 2/23 through 3/25, via the formula 
    {average(low of 2/23 cell:high of 3/25 cell)} 
    we get a calculated value of $0.8324, which we round to $0.83. 
    So we have confirmation of consolidation occurring at the reversion to the mean price point. 
    Both a triple top and  “Bulkowski's right-angled and descending broadening formation” are consolidation patterns that occur prior to a continuation or a reversal of a prior trend.
    The triple top is bearish in implication while the other is a bullish indicator. 
    Rather than describe all the points that define what I'm seeing, I'll just throw in a graphic that let's you visually confirm or discount what I think I'm seeing and I'll move on to what I expect to happen next.
     
    (click to enlarge)
    Gwmgf 120 day 3/25/2011
     
    THE NEAR-TERM UPSIDE CASE 
    The case for a continued move up here is predominately the technical indicators and the new higher high and higher low on 3/25 which penetrated prior resistance at $0.93 and exceeded the highs of the previous legs up. But I consider this case weak, for reasons I'll detail in THE NEAR-TERM DOWNSIDE CASE below. 
    First, the volume has generally been trending slightly up, giving support to a possibility of a continued rise. The DI+, DI- are showing a positive price trend and the ADX is curling up, although weak being still below 30. 
    Momentum is 1.26 and rising, OBV has been in a general up trend, MFI is 73.23 and rising, accumulation/distribution has been generally rising and is at 9.29 and RSI has been generally rising and is ~59.14. 
    There is also a divergence going on between price action and RSI. On 2/22, the end of that down leg at $0.7107 and close of $0.7195, RSI was at its low during that leg at 25.3619. Yet on 3/15 when we made a lower low of $0.6246 and a lower close of $0.7069, the RSI low for the leg was at 27.89. So, as the second major leg made a lower low and close, the RSI for that run made a higher low. This divergence is indicative of a longer-term strengthening in price. 
    Supporting that, on the up leg ending 2/28 with a high and close of $0.92, RSI was 55.5132. But on the high (I believe) of this most recent up leg on 3/24, a high and close of $0.92 and $0.90 respectively yielded an RSI of 60.8292. 
    So with lower highs, lows and closes we had higher RSI readings. We are heading towards a break out, but when is undetermined. I don't believe its near yet. 
    THE NEAR-TERM DOWNSIDE CASE 
    First let me debunk the THE NEAR-TERM UPSIDE CASE. 
    Stochastic has just left overbought and crossed below its signal line. Every time stochastic has rolled over a down trend has followed, even if of short duration. And the other technical indicators are no better than, and actually weaker than most, prior occurrences. 
    I next looked at the intra-day one-minute chart for 3/25, when we seemed to break resistance and make a new high. 
    All is not as it seems on first glance! 
    First, the high of $0.969, was made early, was short-lived and weak, occurring in the 7th minute of trading, from an open of $0.907 and a low of $0.90. 
    Then as soon as the high was made, on high one-minute volume, the volume plummeted to zilch (seriously, 0 shares traded from 09:38 through 09:42, five full minutes) and so, of course, price was flat at $0.959, the close at 09:37. 
    We then commenced a steady step down on initially higher volume (it's not hard to trump zero!) which tapered off over time. By 10:06 we had dropped back to $0.938, made some more zero-volume minutes and bottomed at $0.919 on 1.45K shares at 10:10. 
    Summarizing the action following that, it was predominately low-volume throughout the rest of the day with a heavy bias downward, making a new intra-day low of $0.8825 at 15:34 on a 2K trade, which was followed by a move back to $0.90 on a 10K trade 4 minutes later. 
    We closed the day, on very low volume, at $0.9009. 
    This is certainly a sign of weakness even considering it's a Friday, an often low volume and weak price-action day. 
    So in summary the near-term upside case is quite weak. 
    Let's take a look at what may be supporting a near-term downside case. 
    We can see we are at a top again and may continue above it or reverse and move down. As with the prior tops, you can see by examination of the graphic that we again have a higher volume at the end of the leg up, which is prior to the peak price, and lower volume as we make the peak. The peak price in the prior runs up actually occurred on the start of the down leg, as can be seen by noting that the closing price is lower than the prior close in each case, including this latest potential reversal to the down side. That should indicate we are likely to behave as before and start moving downward from here. 
    But this is never certain! So we must be alert that the higher peak this time may indicate we are likely to continue up from here. 
    Sans a catalyst or a big shift in overall market sentiment in the REE space, I'm betting against it. I believe it will again reverse. Why? 
    My assessment is again influenced by what is seen on the daily chart – refer to the graphic again to see what I'm discussing here. 
    The upper Bollinger band (orange line) is falling and currently at $0.9152, above the opening an closing price a bit. It should offer strong resistance and tend to depress price. On the other hand, the lower Bollinger is clear down at $0.8236 and sharply rising. Even if it rises a couple of pennies Monday, it's only going to hit $0.84 or so. Price bottom seems likely to drop to meet it, considering the lack of price and volume strength discussed above. 
    This is also supported in that this behavior was seen last time the Bollinger bands were in a similar state around the March 4 time-frame, as were many of the other technical indicators. 
    Further, the low for the day is substantially above the 10 (green line), 20 (blue line), and 50 day SMAs - $0.8011, $0.8389 and $0.8647 respectively. The 50 day has not been habitually demonstrating support recently either, and price just moved above it a few days ago. So I'm expecting no support from that venue. 
    That low is also substantially above a long-term trend support (which may not be in play because it has been strongly violated – we'll have to wait and see). 
    Last, as discussed above, the price point that it wants to trade around is $0.83. So until consolidation is over, it will tend to gravitate towards that price level and overshoot in both directions as folks (including me before this time) misread the signals being thrown off. 
    Where is it likely to drop to? I'm going to mention seven, IMO, likely points where we should be watching for signs of reversal to an up trend. None will be precise, of course, but they should be “in the ball park”. 
    My first watch point is $0.83-$0.85 initially, maybe a pause there, and then close the gap, which is my second watch point, of $0.789-$0.8039 from Friday March 18 and Monday March 21. Initially higher volume should occur and should taper off as these points are neared or slightly overshot. If volume doesn't weaken, we should look for continued price deterioration. 
    Why would it stop in one of those ranges? 
    Because then it will be at or below two of the the three SMAs I mentioned (likely since all are rising now), below the Fibonacci 50% point, below that longer-term trend (potential) support, $0.83-$0.85 has displayed symptoms of being a decision point in the past, and it will have violated, or pushed lower, the lower Bollinger band. And sometimes things like to return to the most recent trend, an up leg. 
    And there's one more thing. Remember the old “reversion to the mean”? This last leg down has a mean price of $0.797, almost right smack-dab in the middle of that gap. So if the gap is closed, it's retraced half of the recent up leg and it's below SMAs and trend - there could be an impetus to turn around. 
    If it does reverse there and start to run up, I think we break through the recent resistance of ~$0.94/$0.95 and it keeps going for a bit.  
    The down leg that sets up this reversal, in this case, should play out in 5 days or so. If it gets one of these levels and reverses within the next 5 trading days, I see it as a buy/add point as the general up trend may start gaining control again. And even if it doesn't break out to the upside, down side is limited, IMO, and taking of profit could be done at the ~$0.95 level again. 
    However, ... 
    There's one more gap, my third watch point, from 3/17-3/18 at $0.7433-$0.747 that could get closed, but it's so small I don't know if we should consider it. But it is a possibility as we've seen lower lows on the the prior legs down. 
    Lower lows combined with the higher high on this last peak, is an indication of increasing volatility. That is to say, the swings are becoming more pronounced. So we should keep that miniscule gap on our radar, and even some lower possibilities. 
    My fourth watch point is at the Fibonacci 61.8% retrace of $.073, which also happens to be just above a prior resistance point of $0.716 from 1/12/2011. But it has been tested and failed to hold twice since, so I don't expect much support from it. 
    My fifth and sixth points are at the two prior lows of the down legs, $0.68 from 2/23 and ~$0.625 from 3/15. The first has been tested and failed, so I wouldn't count on it. The latter one has yet to be tested. 
    If it breaks through all those points and continues down, the last watch point is in the range of $0.57-$0.55. This is predicated on the trend line of the lows of 2/23 and 3/15, which has a descent rate of ~2 cents/5 days. So if we trend down 5 days and near this line around 4/1, we'd be looking at roughly $0.57 and if it takes longer we'd be looking at about $0.55 on 4/8, 10 days. PPS within those intervals would be adjusted proportionately. 
    One caveat: the Bollinger may offer unexpected support, so be alert for a reversal to start moving up if the lower Bollinger displays some strength. And keep in mind it is trying to rise now. But also bear in mind that the upper and lower are converging, indicating a change is coming but giving no guidance as to direction. In point of fact, with the lower Bollinger rising so rapidly, relative to the rate of fall of the upper band, it could be we'll bust a move up. But the last time this style of convergence happened at the previous top, we tried but failed to move up substantially and instead moved back down. But this is the third run at the top, so we'll see. 
    CONCLUSIONS 
    It may behave differently this time than the previous times we hit the ~$0.93 levels. And it may not. But I do think it will. Here's why. 
    We have several potential support points now near the $0.83 level. 
    There are four cases where ~$0.83/~$0.84 has acted as resistance and/or support, the 20 day SMA is $0.8389 and rising, the Fibonacci 50% is at ~$0.83, the lower Bollinger is $0.8236 and rising and the potential trend support line is currently at ~$0.84 and rising ~$0.006/day. And we mustn't forget the reversion to the mean, which resides at $0.83 and we have seen that it wants to trade around that level, on average. 
    Some other potential indicators of support include the fact that the 50 day SMA is at $0.8647 and rising, we have the RSI lows and highs with a divergence up, as compared to price, and many of the other technical indicators are showing improving trends. 
    Last, we have that beautiful correlation to Bulkowski's Right-Angled and Descending Broadening Formation (defined by the top pink and pink sloping lines on the graphic). 
    So, we should have an initial move down, followed by a reversal marching up towards that $0.93 level again as if we will make another top and reverse. But I think the chances are strong that we will keep going up from there. But that is an iffy call since we don't know if we are near done with the consolidation. I believe an early reversal from the downtrend we are going to start will be a positive indication that a break out is coming.
     
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Comments (39)
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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    You have created a masterpiece, HTL.

     

    I read it twice (once to savor the opus, and a second time to see just how much of it I could grok).

     

    Amazingly, I find that it makes good sense to me, a tribute to your ability to render complex matters into layman's terms!

     

    I have been looking over my own charts for the various REE/Stat stocks which I track on the ASX (including Lynas, of course), and I am detecting a shift from that exchange leading those stocks on our own exchanges to following - and I suspect we are about to see signs of that Monday.

     

    ASX is of course about to crank up, and I am watching events there.

     

    IF the American markets start to lead rather than follow the Asian markets, in general, this could mean that weighting for North American stocks in general could strengthen this week, a factor that might add momentum to stocks like Great Western. I have also been expecting to hear news from GW regarding their pursuit of a JV partner at Steenkampskraal. Obviously, this would be a powerful news item.
    27 Mar 2011, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks for the compliment. I worked on it all day trying to get something reasonable, understandable, but complete and still open to critique in case I missed something.

     

    Coming from you, it means a lot.

     

    You may recall that I commented a couple days back that it was looking like Lynas in the U.S was starting to lead. But Friday we had that indecisive action, so we'll have to assess that again I guess.

     

    I suspect that we could be taking the lead, generally in the markets, as we may have a smaller amount of exposure to the knock-on affects of Japan's ills.

     

    This is predicated that as a percentage of our economy, Japan affects a smaller percentage than countries such as Australia and other Asian-centric economies and raw material markets specifically.

     

    Does that hold any water?

     

    ISTM that here it's mostly the automotive sector that is most severely affected while many of those other countries get their major export products affected.

     

    Based on GWM relationship with that investment banker, I think also there is something in the works. But those things take time - lots of details to hammer out.

     

    I just hope that IB relationship is *not* to underwrite a big share issuance.

     

    HardToLove

     

    P.S. I'm going to have to read what I wrote *again*. Last look it was "satisfactory", but I saw no opus in it! In fact, I was really worried it might be less than useful

     

    No, I'm not fishing, just honest! :-))
    27 Mar 2011, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    It was very useful - particularly for GWM (Lynas is more knowable, at least to me, where we have a very defined schedule of likely events and proximate major production startup). Stocks which still have a long leadtime before they startup their mines are, imo, better candidates for fundamental analysis and tighter charting. Sure, the odd announcement will still turn their worlds upside down, but those events and their impact are less predictable. Many of them tend to react to subtle, cyclic forces which either lend themselves to charting (like trading channels) or other traditional formations which can be interpreted.

     

    I believe GWM will first seek to ally with joint venture partners (something you need an IB for), but there's no denying that they WILL fall back upon further dilution if they have to... Though the credit facility they already have in place will allow them to do this slowly, over time, as evidenced by their dipping into it not long ago. This low level dilution is, imo, already baked into the stock price by the more astute (one reason it went south from its recent high, lots of investors seeing the new credit facility working via equity financing as essentially a large dilution, even though the initial draw was fairly small).

     

    I agree on your take re. the impact of the Japanese catastrophe on our economy. This is always the way of it - it is MUCH easier to find an alternative SOURCE rather than a new MARKET. Australia needs Japan as a MARKET for their commodities, and will take a commensurate hit vs the U.S., which will just shift orders from Japan Inc. to Taiwan/SouthKorea/Chin... Inc.

     

    Proprietory technology (such as specialized electronic parts for automobiles, most of them Japanese name brands assembling cars and trucks in the U.S.) will present a problem, but again, those companies will see market losses and corporate losses but NOT much impact on the American economy.

     

    In fact, companies like Ford, GM, Hyundai, Kia and Volkswagen may gain market share at the expense of the Japanese automakers, which would have a net benefit to our economy.
    27 Mar 2011, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Hard: Stellar work! Searching out the best entry pointy is always important. Sometimes, just holding your nose and buying the gray horse in the eighth gate works out, too. If one believes in corporate premise.

     

    I read your fine piece before I went to the annual B-Day family bash(Lots of birthdays from now through mid-April).

     

    My research agrees in that I'm thinking that your WMGF 83 cent price target is a buy. I was thinking of buying more shares. Alas...

     

    But I'm not going to buy more shares. Rather park more $ in Axion. And will be buying approximately 37,000 more shares tomorrow, or definitely within the next couple of days.

     

    Suggest to read JP's article coming out tomorrow on SA.
    28 Mar 2011, 12:30 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Here is the link:

     

    www.altenergystocks.com/
    28 Mar 2011, 12:34 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    WMGF? (GWMGF) Gee! I skipped the "G."
    28 Mar 2011, 01:39 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (GWMGF): Based on today's volume, range, late day weakening, I don't believe $0.83 is going to hold.

     

    I'll be checking over the next day or two and see if I'm able to grok which of the lower points seems likely.

     

    Tomorrows volume and price action should give the early clues.

     

    Of course, trying to nail a low is really difficult for me, so keep that in mind and focus on "watch points' more than what I may think will happen.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    28 Mar 2011, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6161) | Send Message
     
    Wow... that's a lot of great work HT... I consider this a must read...
    30 Mar 2011, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Just cashed in half my Great Western in the BA. Was up well over 100%. What remains is all house money. Not sure if I caught it, but my broker has a buy in for another 10K shares of Axion with some of the proceeds at $1.14. Hurt to sell fav GWMGF. But I don't see it leaping as soon as Axion.

     

    Hoping you guys noticed the post I put in QC about where JP expects Axion to be in a mere few months. I'll take even half his expectation.

     

    With the conference call tomorrow at 11:00, this also could be a neat little two-day trade. Always risky! But the chances of Axion going down tomorrow are slimmed because of the conference call.

     

    30 Mar 2011, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » It bounced above our $1.14 support this A.M. after going to $1.12. Keep in mind the rate of rise on that line too.

     

    Saw you post over there - that's a great target to have in sight.

     

    HardToLove
    30 Mar 2011, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (GWMGF): I started writing this well before the close 3/30/11, so please be tolerant of any temporal anomalies you may observe.

     

    I'm becoming cautiously optimistic that $0.83 will hold, in fact may not be touched before we see $0.93 again.

     

    The day I commented that I was afraid it wouldn't, due to the range and volume on 3/28, it bottomed at $0.84. This is a prior support point. But I gave it no credence at the time because of the rise in volume on a move down and the large range that day.

     

    The next day, 3/29, it opened higher ($0.876), closed higher at $0.88, both above the open. The low was $0.8540, higher than 3/28 low. So, we had higher low and high.

     

    But it did all this on falling volume, so I still couldn't trust it.

     

    Now today we see that pattern repeated. Higher open, low, high and close with even lower volume.

     

    On top of all that, the price has not penetrated the long-term rising support originated on12/27/10 at $0.40. But that had only one touch point, the low of 2/23 until ... 3/28 when it was at $0.8396, as close as I can tell, and the low stopped at $0.84. So we have another touch point @ $0.84 from the low of that day.

     

    This lends some credence to that rising support. And today my best estimate of the trend support is $0.856 and pps has started to pull away from it, making a low of $0.8684. So we have another touch point. Is there apparent support for moving up?

     

    Maybe. Today, we have a higher open again, $0.902, a higher high, $0.92, a low so far of $0.8684. Well, that seems positive.

     

    And something new has occurred - it acts as if the 50 day SMA is providing support and is rising. On 3/28 the 50 day SMA was $0.869 and on 3/29 it was $0.8742 and (as EOD ended up) 3/30 had a value of $0.8792. We broke below that level each of these days, intra-day, but only closed below it on the scary day, 3/28.

     

    But again, all on very low, and declining volume.

     

    So, what can we envision?

     

    The lower volume is both a warning and encouragement. Lower volume on rising prices are generally not good. But it's also a harbinger of a change coming and being in a period of consolidation. It also implies a very large amount of pent up energy just waiting to break out one way or the other.

     

    What's my best guess, and I emphasize guess here, about the near-term future action?

     

    A little sideways trading with a slight upward bias as all the moving averages continue to rise, the trend support continues to rise, the Bollinger bands continue to converge. At some point an attempt to move towards $0.83 will be made, but will fail. There's too many support points under the price now for it to get to $0.83 again … unless there's either a catalyst or a general REE sector market move downward. Technical traders of every bent will see too many indicators that say buy, due to these rising indicators.

     

    10, 20, 50 day SMAs EOD 3/30 $0.8492, $0.8369, $0.8792.
    Trend support, today, $0.8633, AFAICT.
    PSAR, bullish.
    RSI, 3/30 EOD, a little better than neutral and flat @ 75.633
    Momentum and OBV, 3/30 EOD neutral and stochastic seems to have bottomed above over sold and is curling up, as is ADX, DI+ and DI- is falling.

     

    Then, as we approach $0.93, that pent-up energy will be released as a move up rapidly.

     

    MHO
    HardToLove
    31 Mar 2011, 09:32 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL. I just spent some time sweeping up the dust in the backrooms of the powerful (ie, doing searches of every news source I can find), and my opinion just hit the re-set button.

     

    GWM has been actively meeting with prospective customers/joint venture partners (seeking to replicate what Lynas and MCP have accomplished in that area), and I am seeing hints that they HAVE gotten nibbles, but not the hungry strike they had hoped for.

     

    This means that it is unlikely that they have found the big fish which MCP and Lynas landed, but that they may have found a "big enough" lead to now cut a deal. Frankly, so long as REE prices continue to climb, there is no immediate incentive driving them to cut a deal today vs tomorrow, so their negotiating position just improves as time goes on...

     

    Which explains the lack of news thus far.

     

    The chart behavior supports my thesis, imo.

     

    I have to keep reminding myself just how patient GWM has shown themselves to be in this process. And they really don't NEED a giant whale partner to do what they want to do, their scale of operations will be a fraction of that envisioned by Lynas and MCP.

     

    SO, I believe the technicals will guide this stock while we wait for the news to drop out of the sky, like Groucho Marx' rubber ducky, and give us "The Word of the Day".
    31 Mar 2011, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » And I have such beeeooootiful timing too!

     

    As detailed here, www.marketwire.com/pre..., a negative result was announced at 10:30 this morning on the Deep Sands project which will cause the project to be put on the back burner.

     

    PPS dropped to $0.849 so far while the high for the day had been$0.892.

     

    Well, let's see how strong the technicals are today.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Mar 2011, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    News rules.
    31 Mar 2011, 11:01 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6161) | Send Message
     
    I have been thinking about moving into Great Western, but I wonder about their cash position... What do you think?
    31 Mar 2011, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    I believe they are keeping their operations idling along from whatever cash flow they can get from their UK and Michigan facilities, plus their ongoing dilution credit facility (which I expect them to dip into again soon, if they can't snag a JV partner and get a cash infusion).

     

    Their dilution will be more of the low level stuff needed just to fund a few months of operations at a time... IMO.

     

    I don't believe they can do sufficient dilution to pay for all the work they need at Steenkampskraal. There they either get a partner or wait.

     

    Right as they announce another mini-dilution might be a good time to buy in, though last time it hardly dented their share price because of the timing and the general news background.
    31 Mar 2011, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6161) | Send Message
     
    That's just what I was looking for... thanks Trip
    31 Mar 2011, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (GWMGF): for those who may not be following the REE Concentrator, I posted a reply to a Q over there about if we could get into the $0.7x range.

     

    This is a link to the reply.

     

    seekingalpha.com/autho...

     

    If you are *not* following the concentrator, I believe you are missing some *great* information.

     

    HardToLove
    31 Mar 2011, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (GWMGF): For those of you that may not be onboard with TripleBlack's REE Concentrator blogs:

     

    seekingalpha.com/user/...

     

    OptionsGirl posted in the latest blog a comment with a link to register for the GWM conference call on April 6th.

     

    seekingalpha.com/user/...

     

    And I commented there with a link to the PR reporting the EOQ/EOY results.

     

    seekingalpha.com/autho...

     

    HardToLove
    2 Apr 2011, 07:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (GWMGF): 4/3 added updates at the top of the blog and a new chart.

     

    The prior version follows the new stuff in the blog.

     

    HardToLove
    3 Apr 2011, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (GWMGF): Volume confirms breakout to upside today. Now, can we penetrate prior resistance @ Fibonacci $0.93, pps resistance $0.94/$0.95?

     

    Considering all I included in the top of updates to the blog text and chart, I believe we will now move steady up for a while.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Apr 2011, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    MolyCorp's SIlmet purchase has energized their base, stock is soaring, wild gyration...

     

    Yet I see this purchase as very puzzling.

     

    Energy within the REE sector is getting keyed up, though, so look for GWM to benefit.

     

    MCP is in M&A phase, now they need ore for Silmet (Tasman?).

     

    They still have their same problems here in North America, of course...

     

    AVL? Maybe, but I'm thinking an alliance with Quest instead...
    4 Apr 2011, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Just bought TASXF and QSURF.
    4 Apr 2011, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Hi H.T.L. I agree with the very first sentence that was posted in response to your outstanding effort here. Quoting one Mr. Tripleblack, "You have created a masterpiece, HTL". I'm not sure if you know Mr. Tripleblack personally H.T, but he's a pretty good friend of mine, a well known goat trader residing in his gorgeous ocean side villa overlooking the beautiful Pacific on the point of land not far from the town of Vegueta, Peru. He also dabbles in the equities markets as a lucrative secondary hobby. At least I 'think' it's the same guy :-)

     

    H.T., I'm pretty sure you'll forgive me for this, but I'm going to take the liberty of asking for some help here. I know that many of the people who follow you also know me, so I want to ask for a bit of help in publishing my first insta. I'm not even asking for help from you personally H.T, but from anybody who's willing to help me with it. Here's why I'm seriously considering trying it for the first time:

     

    As you may or may not know, in the past 6 months I've barely commented on SA at all. To be honest I seem to have lost contact with all my friends here. I don't know where they are most of the time now. It seems very, very few of them are commenting and I just know that's not the case. In any event, in the same past 6 months I've been approached 4 times by sites that are asking me to publish articles, something which until last week I'd never done. I'll be honest, I don't know what it is about my writing that they find worthy enough that they'd approach me about it, and secondly... it scares me a bit to author what would be considered as an official 'article'. I honestly find it a bit daunting.

     

    One of those 4 sites is SA. I imagine that a couple of weeks ago they simply broadcast the same email message to hundreds and hundreds of top commenters, so I just took that particular invitation with a grain of salt. But I did send a return email to Rebecca and have to admit that I was a bit surprised that she responded quickly. Ironically, only a day or two later I was approached yet again and was invited to publish articles on a website. This time though, I could see a fantastic symbiotic relationship available. It just made good sense, so I took the plunge. So I'm now publishing articles on a regular basis in conjunction with an internet friend of mine named Michael Eckert who specializes in technical analysis as do I. He too is a goat trader. lol And this time I'm serious, as you'll see when you visit his site which is located here:
    elliottwavetrendsandch.../

     

    So as a beginning effort to try increase exposure to any of my own articles that henceforth are 'not' published on SA, and in lieu of the fact that SA is encouraging me to write articles here, I guess it makes sense to use the two in conjunction with each other. The problem is that I don't know how to publish an insta (and make it look good). I've never tried it and strangely I find that for some reason I'm a bit intimidated to do so. I'm pretty certain that if I be honest with myself, I'd have to admit that that's the 'only' reason I've never published an insta.

     

    If anybody can advise me or is willing to take the time to walk me through the process of publishing an insta (which might become an article) I'd certainly appreciate the guidance. I'm also guessing somebody out there has some valuable tips for me that I'd never even thought of. For all I know it might be relatively simple and it might turn out that I had nothing to be concerned about. Here are two recent examples of what I'd consider turning into an insta. I definitely would like somebody to take a look at them before I go any further with it:

     

    elliottwavetrendsandch.../

     

    elliottwavetrendsandch.../

     

    I realize this comment iis off topic H.T.L., but you're probably the best choice as an acquaintance for me to approach on SA since it was apparent on the first day we met that you had a growing interest in technical analysis. I'd noticed right away that you were also a bit of a sponge for knowledge. lol That was more than 2 years ago now I believe. On a side note, if TA is a topic that really intrigues you, you might even consider bookmarking Michael Eckert's site. The chat room is absolutely outstanding. Thanks buddy... I'm trusting you'll forgive me for approaching you here.

     

    And yes... you've done an outstanding job here. Well done!
    .
    4 Apr 2011, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » A.R. I'll PM to you tonight after I've had time to look at the links and get through today's trading activities.

     

    It's good to hear your skills are in demand. I've always like your thoroughness and conversational style too. Makes for an easy read while conveying a lot of information, IMO.

     

    The TripleBlack you're thinking of is not the same one. Click on TB's avatar and you'll see more info in his profile.

     

    HardToLolve
    4 Apr 2011, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    I clicked on trip's avatar and yup... that's the same tripleblack alright. lol

     

    Thanks for the offer to pm me H.T. Unfortunately I work 5 evenings per week and tonight is one of them. But I'm here Tues. and Wed. evening if that works :-)
    4 Apr 2011, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The message will stay in your SA mailbox until you have time to read it.

     

    So, no rush if you don't get to it right away.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Apr 2011, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Oh yes.. of course. I was thinking of it as a chat room since I've gotten used to that lately. Thanks again.
    4 Apr 2011, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    LOL, he's just jerking my chain, HTL.

     

    Everyone knows I'm actually an alien hybrid living in Roswell, New Mexico (I claim to live near Roswell, Georgia, but its all just a clever ruse).
    4 Apr 2011, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    LOL, you're onto me. How are you bud?
    4 Apr 2011, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    Good. Go ahead, give the SA geekmeisters some wave charts to digest - I'll check them every time they get a hit, and you'll make some cash.

     

    I believe the site needs this sort of thing. You could start with reviving your old Heidelberg Watch, which is always a stayer...

     

    Then get on predicting when the commodities will start to tail off, and the dollar go up (some of the less well-informed think this will happen if they stop the official QE2, or just finish it, but I think the Fed tells lies...)...

     

    Next call the likelihood of Great Recession Double Dip when (if) they really do stop dropping the dime in the market slot, and begin selling off big chunks of their balance sheet instead...

     

    Throw in the long-awaited interest rate increase (start with a 1/4 point, but don't stop there)...

     

    And you have a chance to really make a difference.
    4 Apr 2011, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Thanks trip. I actually do a ton of analysis on those very topics. But I've been told by 2 TA guys here that SA is not particularly interested in supporting technical analysis. I think you're right, it's sorely missing on Seeking Alpha. In fact one of the articles I wrote on the weekend talks about that very issue (the S&P priced in oil). It was certainly an eye opener even for myself. In any event, there are sites like Michael Eckert's where this kind of thing is studied in depth but most investors' eyes just glaze over when looking at tech. analysis. Sad, because it's very powerful stuff. It's just based on math so there's not really a whole lot of subjective mumbo mumbo involved.
    4 Apr 2011, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    They want articles that lead with "12 Stocks That Will Survive the Coming Crash" headlines, and link to a whole forest of seminar sellers and get rich (guaranteed) system sellers.

     

    Get a slew of folks to "Recommend" your article, and a legion of myrmidons to "Tweet" it, and you're golden.
    4 Apr 2011, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    "They want articles that lead with "12 Stocks That Will Survive the Coming Crash" headlines, and link to a whole forest of seminar sellers and get rich (guaranteed) system sellers."

     

    Oh, I thought they were more after articles that lead with "12 Stocks That Will Explode Higher Once The Current Correction Has Run It's Course." lol But this FED driven liquidity run-up has to be one of the most impressive (but phony and dangerous) things I've ever seen. It might continue... I don't know, but I'm sure as heck trying to identify when it might end. I doubt there are many people who "wouldn't" want have information which suggests that.

     

    I never even thought of getting people to 'recommend' an article or insta and I have to admit that I've never even noticed the recommend button until now. I feel just a wee bit like a 'loser' for having to admit that. Oh well... if the shoe fits.....

     

    And I'm going to make another admission... I don't really even know what tweeting is all about. How do I get people to tweet it and recommend it? Ask them to? That might make me sound just a little bit 'needy'. Oh well... if the shoe fits.

     

    Thanks for the suggestions... see I've already learned some new things today.
    4 Apr 2011, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10418) | Send Message
     
    Trip is correct, Rocks. Since a lot of what I've read about your work includes (SPX) and other ETFs, you should have no problem getting published. Highly recommend including some tilt on stocks within your article's premise.

     

    First beer is on me in Copan late next year if you get published. Ahh....make it the first two beers, first one is just for making it there in your new kayak! ;-)

     

    Looking forward to reading your TA!
    4 Apr 2011, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • Albertarocks
    , contributor
    Comments (2233) | Send Message
     
    Hi Maya. I've got about 2 minutes here before I head back out to work. Some of my TA stuff was published this week. If you like, you can see it right now in the links I provided to H.T.L. (above).
    4 Apr 2011, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (GWMGF): Just a reminder that 11:00 A.M. EDT, 4/6, GWMGF at Stone conference call. If you're registered you should have received a reminder e-mail.

     

    HardToLove
    5 Apr 2011, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18412) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » (GWMGF): We should have a move start today or tomorrow for a couple of reasons.

     

    On the technical side we have the rising trend line supporting price and squeezing pps into resistance in the $0.93/$0.95 area. The spread is now only 3-5 cents. SMAs and other technical indicators all support price at the current level. As expected, several have flattened and the upward momentum they indicated has dissipated.

     

    The conference at Stone Communications goes off at 11:00 EDT today. If Great Western has any hint of "coming attractions", either positive or negative, I believe we should see a move to a new trading range start to develop.

     

    If the conference is "ho-hum", I can't guess. But we do have many technical support items. Of course, they could all be negated by "ho-hum" or worse.

     

    HardToLove
    6 Apr 2011, 06:34 AM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13585) | Send Message
     
    I'm thinking we get good news, and GWM goes up (whereas Lynas goes down on profit taking).
    6 Apr 2011, 08:39 AM Reply Like
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