Spent over 30 years in computer systems work, many different functions. Owned my own business for awhile. Got tired of it (managing employees is not my baliwick) and stopped doing it professionally. Did other things, off and on, for some more years and finally bumped into this investing/trading... More
I threw a few hundred shares in the basket the other day as a trade. But I've been watching the company for a while looking at it as a potential growth story. Today I went to the web site and again read everything there, looked at past performance (woefully inconsistent and under-achieving, especially in management performance compared to its peers in the segment) and looked at recent developments.
In fiscal 2010 they generated about $114.5K per employee (alternately, they are projected to generate $132K/employee using 2011 fiscal year estimates) in revenue annually, but there has been a transition undertaken that should bump that considerably if they are successful. Since fiscal 2010 actual revenues were only $8.3M, you can see from the estimates below that revenue per employee should jump substantially when you add in a new manufacturing facility being so automated. There should not be commensurate jump in head count.
P/S and P/B are nasty ATM. Fiscal estimates are for 2011 @ $10.3M, 2012 @ $33.2MM and 2013 @ $79.6M. If some of the irons in the fire hit, these could be absurdly low estimates, assuming they were generated before all these things came into play.
The most significant thing is the transition they are attempting from a more-or-less one-off design, engineering and contract firm to a high-volume-capable manufacturing outfit with supporting design and engineering services for both in-house and contract use. They have restructured into 4 operating segments to better suit their new strategy.
Along this same transition vein, they support their customers with GUI interfaces for the programming of control modules, reducing cost and shortening lead-times for them, especially important to the automotive industry.
The biggest steps in this transition are the new management team, brought in last year, that has large-scale automotive experience, a new manufacturing facility, DOE grants for the transition, Rolls-Royce selection of UQM for their EV, development fleets in test with SAAB and Audi, and production contracts with CODA (start-up, so can't really bank on that) and Proterra (has sales already in So. Cal. and elsewhere, but also new).
Remaining from their past activities, they also supply control modules to Eaton.
They sponsor a motorcycle racing team that just set new records with UQM equipment. Performance PR can't hurt.
Not listed in their materials yet is another start-up that uses their motors, Wrightspeed. You may recall that their initial target is class 2(?)-6 delivery vehicles and they received funding from California to get their manufacturing going.
ISTM that *if* just one of the start-ups or the majors hit it big, UQM will be OK. *If* oil prices remain high, *if* consumers begin to accept the various EVs they will be offered, *if* UQM can execute, ... they may become a quite profitable concern. That's a lot of big "ifs" just off the top of my head.
On the competition side, I only recall Parker-Hannifin, used in the CPST auto solution. But I've not yet gone looking. Barriers to entry should be fairly high as UQM holds many patents that make their motors more efficient, smaller, lighter, flexible, and they claim packaging makes them easier to integrate than many of their peers' products.
Adding to the barriers to entry would be the facilities, expertise, automotive validation process, and technology needed to enter a market where very high efficiency, reliability and longevity are at a premium.
As with any new application for a product, the first adopters may set the stage for a long trend of adoption by others. With high-end brands like Audi, Jaguar and Saab possibly getting the ball rolling, I can foresee some potential growth going on here. If any of the start-ups - Wrightspeed, CODA, Proterra - take off, that's icing on the cake.
At this point I still call it a speculative play, but one that seems to hold a little less fear for dipping a toe in the water. There are options available but I see no strike price, delta and pricing combinations that I like. OI is small so there's also not much liquidity in them
Under these conditions, it's better to just play the stock directly, IMO. I plan a small core position with trading blocks around it, as I do with most of my long-term holds.
Next reporting, IIRC, is for around 5/23. I'm not expecting any earth-shattering results and with the recent expenses of transition going on there might be a miss. However, with $45M in funding from the DOE, their cash position should remain quite reasonable.
Here's some links for folks that might have an interest. Your own DD and considertion of your personal profile should be paramount as this is certainly no slam-dunk at this point.
Since CODA is the largest single contract right now and it's a start-up, I thought investigastion into CODA's web site might be warranted - it's slim pickens (no, not the old western actor!) though.
As always, your own DD and profile should guide you and you should keep in mind my experimental nater (that is, I'm new and all).
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H.T.Love: Greetings. Good analysis and side bar. This one looks to be smack in the middle of the valley of death. I'm putting it on my watch list but not opening a position as yet. Thanks for the heads up.
I'm also cautious on it - only 300 shares right now, just so it's on my screen. I saw today that Wrightspeed is looking to get another $20M from PE for their conversion kit start-up. And that same article says California has mandated that trucking companies begin switching out or converting truck engines to meet tighter standards.
If you like, I'll go find the link - I should've bookmarked it when I encountered it. I need it in my links anyway.
Oh! Thank you for the kind words!
HardToLove
P.S. I remembered where I saw it and just stuck the link here to InvestorVillage post that links to the articles.
Interesting that there was big selling pressure last evening. If we see big buying pressure this morning this may tell us something beyond the effects of PR after it's released. I'll have to start looking a short interest history and related.
A correction: I had mentioned Jaguar as using UQM - wrong. It's Rolls-Royce. I have corrected the body of the article within a few minutes of this post.
(UQM): UQM Technologies CEO Eric Ridenour to Present UQM Strategies and Capabilities at Lazard Capital Markets Alternative Energy Summit
"... June 1, 2011"
"... will be part of the Electric Vehicle Infrastructure panel on Wednesday, June 1, 2011 at 2:35 p.m"
There appears to be no webcast or dial in presentation available, but we might see a pop after the conference just based on enthusiasm the presentation *might* generate if Ridenour has the goods and presents well.
(UQM): CC Thursday June 2, 2011 at 4:30 P.M. Eastern Time
"... reviewing the Company’s operating results for the quarter and fiscal year ended March 31, 2011".
"To participate in the call dial 1-866-966-5335 approximately 10 minutes before the conference is scheduled to begin and provide confirmation code “UQM” to access the call. International callers should dial 1-212-999-6659"
Replay available from ~2 hours after the CC for 7 days by dial-in.
(UQM): Just FYI, pps blew right through three potential resistance points - a falling trend from low of 3/15 with 3 solid touches since (currently ~$2.39), a old prior resistance at $2.43 and a short-term falling resistance from the high of 5/10 with four touches.
CC 16:30 6/2: 1-866-966-5335 confirmation code UQM 10 minutes before.
A recording will be available for 48 hours beginning at 6:30 p.m. Eastern Time today. To access the playback call 1-888-203-1112 and give replay code 4693438. International callers should dial 1-647-436-0148.
1-800-867-0938 approximately 10 minutes before the conference is scheduled to begin and provide conference ID code “4462602” to access the call. International callers should dial 1-480-293-0647.
(UQM): Technologies Updates Product Branding Strategy to Include Production-validated Systems and Reflect Overall Growth of Product Line
I found this new product-branding category to be most interesting in that it suggests that the trials with SAAB, AUDI and others has gone well and the production-level QC consistency is either already confirmed or near beiing so.
"PowerPhase Pro electric propulsion systems are production-validated and ready to drive your high-volume electric vehicles".
(UQM) at Wedbush Clean Technology & Industrial Growth Conference, September 14, 2011 at 8:35 a.m. Pacific Time
(NVAX) recently presented at a Wedbush conference and after a few days delay saw a pop of 75.6% from the low of $1.19 on 8/23 to a high of $2.09 on 8/31.
Will the same happen with UQM? No way to tell, of course.
"... 1-800-762-8908 approximately 10 minutes before the conference is scheduled to begin and provide conference ID code “4483010” to access the call. International callers should dial 1-480-629-9868"
UQM Technologies Begins Volume Production of Its PowerPhase Pro® Electric Propulsion System
============== * UQM begins high-volume manufacturing of its PowerPhase Pro® 100 electric propulsion system * UQM’s fully validated production line has a capacity of 40,000 units on two shifts * High volume production will improve UQM revenue, future growth prospects and opportunities in the electric propulsion sector ==============
"Operations for the second quarter resulted in a net loss of $1,586,185 or $0.04 per common share on total revenue of $2,334,223 versus a net loss of $377,793 or $0.01 per common share on total revenue of $2,027,558 for the second quarter last fiscal year. Net loss for the second quarter last year includes an expense reduction for the recovery of costs from earlier periods under our DOE grant of $2,008,981.".
“Gross profit margins for the quarter and six month period ended September 30, 2011 improved to 43.7 percent and 44.1 percent, respectively, compared to 11.2 percent and 26.0 percent for the same periods last fiscal year due to improved raw material costs and overhead absorption and changes in product mix”.
Highlights, IMO: - New staff hired and trained, ready for lean-manufacturing. - Pre-production validation process, including supplier chain, complete. - CODA first production vehicles to be available for sale in CA before the end of CY 2011. - CODA letter of intent with Great Wall, an independent auto manufacturer in China giving access to the Chinese market as well as Europe; CODA will supply the propulsion and battery systems for new vehicle platforms being developed by Great Wall and UQM will work very hard to be the supplier of choice for the motors and controllers powering these new vehicle platforms. - Electric Vehicles International (EVI) received order from UPS for 100 all-electric delivery trucks powered by UQM® electric propulsion systems. - 20 Audi A1 e-trons will be under test in Munich with UQM propulsion systems in them. - Power Phase HD 220 product - begun testing first concept motor and controller and expect to start DV builds in Q1 CY2012. - In discussions with several potential Chinese partners, looking at several alternatives to provide potential of rapid sales growth while protecting IP.
Nice, I've been in UQM for a while hoping they might get a large contract. This isn't it but it's a step. I also hope they get into volume production so I can someday get my hands on used motor cheap for a conversion. They have the annoying habit of many US companies of not selling their product to individuals, leaving dollars on the table.
I've had a Jeep project in the back of my head that needs a high torque water cooled motor to do everything that I want. It also needs to be reasonably affordable, i.e. less than the $30K UQM has quoted individuals in the past! I need to find a wrecked UPS truck someday ;)
If the project is off-the-wall enough, maybe you can enter a joint-development project with them where they "loan" a motor and related. If the project is successful, you take ownership.
I know they probably have some engineers on staff that would love to do something too.
Just come with a good justification, written plan, mileposts, .... Who knows? They might go for it.
(UQM): UQM Technologies CEO Eric Ridenour to Discuss 2012 Growth Prospects and Strategy at Needham Clean Technology Conference
"UQM has begun shipments of its automotive qualified PowerPhase Pro® 100 electric propulsion system to CODA Automotive, improving revenue and future growth prospects".
"... Eric R. Ridenour, will present at the 14th Annual Needham Growth Conference at the New York Palace Hotel in New York City on January 12, 2012 at 9:20 a.m. EST".
We'll have to grub around and see if there's a webcast or archive of the presentation - nothing about it in the PR.
(UQM): Conference Call Tuesday, January 31, 2012 at 4:30 P.M. Eastern Time
"... be reviewing the Company’s operating results for the quarter and nine months ended December 31, 2011".
" ... dial 1-877-941-8631 approximately 10 minutes before the conference is scheduled to begin and provide conference ID code “4509986” to access the call. International callers should dial 1-480-629-9644".
(UQM) UQM Technologies Selected the SBE Inc. Power Ring Film Capacitor™ for Its PowerPhase Pro® Electric Propulsion System
"... working since 2007 with the design team at UQM to develop a capacitor solution for its PowerPhase Pro® electric propulsion system.
UQM's PowerPhase Pro® electric propulsion system delivers 100 kilowatts (134 horsepower) of peak power, 300 newton meters (221 pound feet) of peak torque and a peak system efficiency of 94%, all in a small 280 millimeter (11 inch) diameter by 252 millimeter (10 inch) long package. UQM recently began volume production of this system for the CODA Automotive's all-electric sedan.".
(UQM) UQM Technologies Reports Third Quarter Operating Results
Looks like the SAAB bankruptcy is responsible for a good portion of the drop in operating results, along with costs for acquiring the new V.P. of sales.
Looks "green" to me! :-)) If there's any "range anxiety" ;-)) the next step is a small Capstone C-30 (light weight) with a small fuel tank for maybe CNG or LNG or (bio)diesel or propane or landfill gas, ... or whatever else is available.
Oh! Solar panels on the flat surfaces or solar concentrators into a heat (steam?) generator!
Solar and electric boats are a good fit, there is usually a good amount of free surface area and they spend most of the time parked in a slip sitting in the sun. This is one of my favorite examples: http://bit.ly/z6GeRG
Of course the ultimate green backup system is a sail ;)
That's a good looking boat. I like sail too, but it does take some skill to be able to tack quickly and effectively. Lot's of folks wouldn't care to learn how.
But it's a great weight loss regimen on a shifting-winds day.
I have no idea. The testing protocols for auto manufacturers is so long and involves so many progressive stages, I'd always be afraid to take a stab at it.
I'd like to see something too - that would reduce the degree of dependence on CODA, which is a *very* large chunk of the UQM risk ATM.
"... all-electric EV Commodore proof-of-concept vehicles"
"... could yield higher volume orders"
"Leading automotive suppliers in Australia are working collaboratively to demonstrate technical viability and attractiveness of electric vehicles to customers"
"... led by EV Engineering, a collaborative venture between leading Australian automotive suppliers: ..."
Hey ... I've already got a "turn-key" propulsion system :-)
And why are they building "LARGE comfortable" cars?
Didn't they get the memo?
Isn't Australia sitting on tons of (offshore?) natural gas? Guess they're gonna export it all to Japan and China. Shades of the US in 10 years? Been trying to figure out where I stand on US Nat Gas ... should we move much of our "Big Rig" transportation and more electrical generation to it only to have the producers start exporting it and driving the price up to nearer old levels?
Where does national responsibility and free trade end? Just how far out can you lock in a future price?
With foreign NG prices being around 9-10 times what we pay here, the export is a natural for the companies that can get it exported cheaply enough.
However, with only one liquifaction plant (Alaska) in the U.S., can't export that much. Most of that goes to Japan.
Cheniere Energy(?) has converted Sabine Pass plant, which used to be import only, to be able to export, but they can't liquefy it. That's a multi-billion and multi-year effort, for a new plant. I don't have the vaguest on a *conversion* cost or time-frame.
So it seems we're good for a while yet.
Heavy trucks are being converted and companies like CLNE are putting up stations. Pilot is adding NG fueling to about 100 of their stations right now.
The good thing is it's all private investment, not tax-payer dollars.
As to the general point, all energy costs go up and down and we can't change that. But we can utilize what is cheaper and local and even if the price does rise, it's dollars spent and circulated (with appropriate multiplier effects) *here*.
Australia has a lot of NG and is also working on large CSG (coal seam gas). I think their best bet is an HEV which can have an on-board small NG-powered generator for the batteries for longer trips.
Either pure EV or HEV would likely use the series electric drive (most likely - that less expensive than a parallel drive) and could provide a very nice compromise.
WBlanchard posted a couple links to CODA over in the Axion Power Concentrator. I'm posting a link to his comment and the destination links he provided since UQM has a heavy dependency, currently, on CODA's efforts.
A consideration of it being really a Chinese car, with some potential hurdles related to that, in spite of a small U.S. assembly plant and U.S. drivetrain (UQM). http://bit.ly/xhcG0y
Well, as a startup, probably can't spend too much on non-essential issues like styling right now. And probably influenced by Chinese taste to some degree.
If they are successful, I think the revenues would come to allow a more robust styling effort.
I think they have an excellent chance of success because they have picked the best place, IMO, for introduction due to population density, sentiment, state government and business support for green initiatives, etc.
If the EV is going to catch on, this seems like the ideal scenario. And it doesn't rally matter if it spreads to all areas of the nation or not. Just getting good acceptance in similar major metropolitan areas would provide both the environmental benefits and be a success *if* the companies manage to *that* scenario, rather than a "conquer the world" scenario.
Along the lines of different technologies for different applications that JP mentions for the batteries, I think vehicles could be viewed similarly.
Styling of a product, especially an automobile, is hardly non essential. It doesn't cost any more to make a nice looking car compared to an ugly one. I'm sure there is a market for "bland", I just hope it's larger than I think.
(UQM): "U.S. Department of Energy Extends Term of UQM Technologies American Recovery and Reinvestment Grant to Five Years"
"$45.1 million ARRA Grant’s period of performance extended from 3 years to 5 years"
And a reminder from the article: "In addition to the ARRA Grant, the Company also has a $4 million program for the development of non-rare-earth magnet electric motors for use in electric and hybrid electric vehicles, with $3 million of the program funding provided by the DOE".
Yes. That puts UQM in direct competition with them. UQM has a DOE grant to fund their efforts. Depending om motoer size, either copper rotor (which can compete with REE-magnet motors in all areas and has a big advantage in cost) or regular sintered-iron magnet motors (in certain size ranges) can compete with REE-magnet motors.
It'll be interesting, since both companies have a lot of expertise in this area, to see who comes out ahead and what they come out with.
With copper prices being relatively stable within a fairly narrow price spread, I hope they look at the copper-rotor design since it matches REE-magnet performance in a wider range than does the alternative.
Induction motors can be very efficient when the aluminum rotor is replaced.
"UQM Technologies Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2012 Operating Results"
"Revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2012 grew 61 percent to $3.8 million compared to $2.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2011, due primarily to shipments to CODA. Net loss for the fourth quarter was $1.5 million or $0.04 per common share versus a net loss of $0.2 million or $0.01 per common share for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011 due primarily to expanded production engineering activities".
"For the fiscal year ended March 31, 2012, total revenue increased 12 percent to $10.1 million compared to $9.0 million in fiscal 2011. Gross profit contribution dollars increased year-over-year by 25% to $3.0 million due to increased margins and higher revenue. Net operating loss for fiscal 2012 was $4,928,520 or $0.14 per common share versus a net loss of $1,992,358 or $0.06 per common share for fiscal 2011. Net loss increased primarily due to the expansion of our production engineering group who are working on new products and business development activities to add new customers. The net loss in fiscal 2011 included the benefit of DOE reimbursements from prior periods of approximately $1.5 million and a recovery from a customer bankruptcy of $0.3 million".
Comments about being excited as CODA shipments began and the new HD motors have been qualified.
Better excitement may be in the release in the next comment.
They've been counting on, in the past, a big move by CODA, even looking for being a potential supplier to them in China. *If* any electric car market has the potential to develop, it's CODA's initial market - southern California. Population density and attitude seems as favorable as that anywhere to make an EV attractive.
However, they do have other efforts, most notably the recent announcement of testing by FedEx in Colorado. They also supply Proterra and have efforts underway with a couple European auto manufacturers.
But it's all very early and speculative in their attempt to move to volume manufacturing. We shouldn't overlook the risk, in spite of a product line that includes all sizes of motors from windows to wipers to motors for truck propulsion.
I think some of the risk comes from the fact that in spite of being a supplier to Parket Hannefin for some components, they are also a potential competitor to them in some of these motors.
For all those reasons, I've kept my positions very small so far.
(UQM): FedEx will be testing UQM PowerPhase HD Motors.
"UQM Technologies PowerPhase HD® Electric Drive Systems Selected to Power Boulder EV Delivery Vans for FedEx Express "
"We just introduced the PowerPhase HD 220 electric drive system last month at EVS26 and have been selected to power the Boulder EV delivery vans as part of the FedEx Express all-electric fleet of vehicles".
TB: You know there's no hurt feelings with a free exchange of ideas here.
I appreciate your taking the time. I was thinking of adding a couple small trading blocks because this should give a typical three day move and I can lower my cost basis and "compound" my cash effectiveness.
I stopped following UQM some time back due to loss of confidence in company management, poor prospects for development of EV markets, and escalating prices of rare earth's used in making permanent magnets. FedEx's selection is definitely prospective for a short-term play in UQM (if nothing else).
I've not looked at the charts, but just thinking about the risk-on/risk-off environment we live in and expecting macro events to hold sway, I believe they will.
There are also company-specific actions, increasing certain expenses such as R & D in anticipation of future market products, that will have some some revenue & P & L effects near-term.
Taking a quick look at a 1-year chart, pps is trapped in a descending channel and the short-term pattern suggests a near-term break down may be in the offing that will keep pps in this channel. The oscillators I track to not contradict this assessment yet.
(UQM): "UQM PowerPhase Pro® 100 Propels KleenSpeed® World KAR Platform "
"The KleenSpeed® World KAR is an all-electric concept vehicle that will begin real world testing in July 2012"
"... a concept electric vehicle that was presented at the Stanford University 2012 Vehicle Concept Showcase event on June 12, 2012. The event highlights emerging electric vehicle transportation companies ..."
(UQM): Wondering about the pop in pps Friday, 6/29, went snooping a little.
Nothing really new, other than we know the annual; meeting is coming 8/8.
But I had seen something that suggested UQM lost CODA - forget where I saw that. But the EOY makes no mention of it and I've not seen any news on it.
As long as I was googling, since UQM depends on CODA a lot right now, I thought I see if there was any news. Thought I'd put some stuff here that we can compare against 6 months or a year from now.
In February, they announced that sales would be through dealers, not "experience centers".
The deal with Great Wall (who sold 500K worldwide last year), inked in April had something we need to bear in mind: ========== He said Coda isn’t disclosing sales volume for the sedan — “It’s a small number” — because the California-only launch strategy is aimed at perfecting the company’s sales and service system rather than at building volume. ==========
Anyway, UQM is vying to be the power train supplier in this deal, so it's worth watching. Target for first production is 2014, according to the PR.
3 sold to retail buyers and a fleet sale. Got to start the ball rolling somehow. I won't comment on the nature of the fleet buyer - it's sort of natural they would be in the space they are.
First was a surprise, "2012 Coda Automotive Electric Sedan Gets Price Cut" by $6,755 to $38,145 (125 mile version).
The only interesting thing, to me, from the following link was: ========== The company has estimated that it will sell about 14,000 Sedans during its first full year of production and will be making 50,000 vehicles a year by 2015, according to Wards Auto, Coda sells a version of its Sedan with a single-charge range of up to 150 miles for $39,900, as well as a $37,250 version with a 125-mile single-charge range ========== http://aol.it/O3E8OL
It has a button if you want to read the whole press release.
Then, "Coda Automotive makes first fleet sale of electric car for AEP Ohio's smart grid testing"
"... purchased the Coda all-electric car after testing a preproduction vehicle in 2011".
And a reminder ...
"In November 2010, Coda announced deals with both Hertz and Enterprise to provide electric cars for both companies to place in their respective rental fleets".
In April they added to customer support convenience by selecting "Mr. Electric" as the supplier for charging station installation. They take care of estimates, permitting, planning and installation.
Me too! But more than that, I like them because they provide a lot of smaller utility motors used for wipers, windows, seats, ... As fuel efficiency requirements force pursuit of weight reduction I think their new volume manufacturing capability positions them to see growth as automakers pare ounces with such as REE motors at every possible place.
And if Buick's scheme of using motors for acceleration assist catches on, UQM has a range of motors suitable for that too.
I think the dark horse in this is Wrightspeed. They've got a proprietary two-speed electric transmission that is *very* efficient, they are addressing what I believe is *the* most suitable market (essentially fixed-route medium-duty trucks and vans) and they can do both (P)EV and HEV setups (currently via CPST and they've got cool videos of their early roadster that waxes the big-name high-performance sport cars).
>H.T.Love ... I think the transportation network in the US will look much different in 20 years. I see the class 8 transcontinental OTR as a thing of the past and relegated to regional terminal service out of rail intermodal depots. I know the heavy REE-free motors are of interest (& useful) right now but I think this is just a temporary sourcing aberration.
I don't know much about Wrightspeed, so I have some research to do. Much I like Capstone I still think they have a lot of engineering to do before becoming the success small turbines hold promise of. I do hope they can do it while improving an existing commercial line instead of having to start from perfection any work on improving from there. Just me.
DRich: I think you hit everything right there. Wrightspeed is still private, but worth looking at for their potential effect on UQM (whose motors they used in their prototype roadster used to demonstrate their concept).
"... relegated to regional terminal service out of rail intermodal depots".
Yes! The only reason the OTR trucking got so overblown in the first place was, IMO, the growing "bubble" in everybody and his brother thinking JIT was the panacea to all problems. That relegated RRs to "too slow".
Now that the economy is in the process of "normalizing" from the excessive credit bubble expansion, all of a sudden money again matters and JIT is revealed to be appropriate in some places and not others.
As a move towards more balanced transportation needs is achieved, I really believe RRs will gain a *lot* of market share, even beyond what it has already recaptured.
I've been eying (NSC) for a good entry - the re-entry I expect into recessionary territory later this year should hammer the stock price and make it very attractive.
The only negative is coal - but I think that will be more than offset by inter-modal activities increases and their corridor expansion.
I wonder too about how radically the prices have fallen since the big bubble in them end of '10 to now. If nothing happens that overcomes the new new supplies coming available in the next 2-3 years or so, I think users of REEs can develop more confidence that the supply will be assured, multi-sourced (to a small degree - heavies are less common) and prices will be stable. This should make REE magnet-based motors continue to be the more attractive alternative.
But we can't rule out China manipulations to work towards whatever their objectives are. Tightening quotas again, maintaining a big difference between China-internal prices and FOB prices might have effects we can't predict. Further, it has been suggested that their internal supplies of certain REE materials will be exhausted in 10 years or so. That should place big demand on external supplies, and so affect prices, as they try to satisfy their internal high-tech needs.
Regardless, with UQM's recent patent application that maintains near REE-magnet performance without those magnets, they should be able to handle any scenario quite well.
>H.T.Love ... JIT is appropriate in some industries but it was a disaster for small business and for refurbishment/restoration industries. Here in Texas JIT inspired the implementation of carried inventory tax which means that there is no economic reason for business to stock old, out-of-date or little used items necessary for repairing stuff that would work just fine for a little TLC.
Don't count coal out. In fact, if you have some money to put into a 3-5 years time frame I'd say this is a good time to invest in coal. The world needs it, natgas in LNG form is not going to get that much cheaper and can't possibly generate the electricity needed. It's an emerging economy play. My favorites in this are Norfolk Southern (NSC) and Consol Energy (mines & port terminal) for the East Coast (throw in Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) for shear size) for Africa & EU and Canadian National (http://bit.ly/MavPyu) and Peabody (http://bit.ly/N0RHhU) for Asia.
I know nothing about Burlington Northern's traffic composition, but seems to me they would have some potential play on coal exports to Asia out of the Powder River Basin coal fields of Montana-Wyoming.
>D-inv ... All rails carry the same mix of commodity cartage but some carry more of one than another. They are identified and priced by the loads they dominate. The BNSF carries coal out of WY to the southern Great Plains & Southwest but is identified as the dominate hauler of fresh fruits & vegetables, grain & oil. In the West & northern Great Plains, coal would be more the province of Union Pacific & Canadian National to export terminals & power plants.
>H.T.Love ... "Blood in the street" investing. Coal has been beaten senseless. Watch those balance sheets to know if the thesis investment company is correct. Now I wait for the rails to get hammered.
One thing to keep in mind is that the rest of the world is still heavily dependent on coal-fired generation (and are building more capacity) and don't (yet?) have the NG infrastructure (or the low prices either) that we have here.
That may keep coal demand high as the reset of the world continues to progress to greater electrification and higher living standards.
That would suggest that RR transporting coal here, to ports for export at least, could remain strong for a very long time. This may become even more likely if increased usage pushes NG price up substantially to nearer BTU-equivalent pricing. This can be not only from local use, but the majors all want to start exporting NG because out-of-country prices are so much higher than here - $10-$11 per million BTU or something like that. If they don't get blocked, that will put coal and NG closer to parity again here.
>jrp ... Good to see your reading comprehension hasn't improved. My thesis for coal is as an export commodity, but if you want to know what I think of the "EVIL" EPA and it's MATS ... I'm all for it. These rules were supposed to be in-place in 2002 and with the demise of "cap & trade" in mercury in 2007 the stage was set for something to happen ... none too soon to suit me.
To blame the EPA for the shut down of coal fired plants is just plain wrong and is a "false flag" to extend profit from the cheapest capital investment. No, what ails the coal generation industry is age & NatGas. Look at the following list and find the year that so many plants were scheduled for shutdown & wonder why this year is the one the dirtiest operators are squealing the loudest about. As with SO2, 10% of generation is responsible for nearly 33% of violations in 2008 (approx 40% in 2011) and to this day somewhere in the neighborhood of 2/3 of coal fired plants have no remediation equipment installed. Thank the legacy effect from cap & trade and good political clout which is loosing its grip because of NatGas.
I could go into great detail because this, electric generation, is one of my favorite investment topics, but it is not the topic of this forum. I'll let you rattle around the site I noted above as a fairly good starting point. Much as people love hating the EPA ... I'm on their side ... both for cleaner air and expanding the USA industrial technology base ... and the jobs we are best suited in the world to create.
Not sure where you got the idea that I'm in anyway against MATS or the EPA. In deference to our host HT who has always managed to engage with me without personal attacks I'll not respond to yours.
>jrp ... I, after reading many of your contributions in many places, would definitely draw the conclusion that you would be totally in favor of the EPA MATS rules. They just weren't the subject at hand and not relevant.
You can tell a lot about an independent operator by the trailer they pull. ..
We move platform freight which is freight that doesn't go in a box. Furthermore, we are specialized in that we can put items taller than what can go on a standard flatbed but not too specialized - we pull a step deck that can accommodate a 40' high cube container (non-standard). I also move freight that is wider than 102". We are also a team and can do the JIT piece. However, my team mate is looking to spend time with her mom so it will be oversize in daylight hours.
Basically my market is everything that does not make sense for rail or terminal to terminal operations so we are in total agreement. However, this is not a small market so do not discount it too much.
I am looking for an entry point for UQM and NSC...
Tim: Re UQM entry. I would be patient with this, as I am (holding just a few hundred shares for a time now just to keep it on the radar). It entered a sustained downtrend beginning 3/20 and just recently broke above and out 7/3. With the holiday and low volume it's hard to tell if the low volume is because of holidays or lack of upward pressure.
Anyway, it's offered a lot of "head fakes" while in this downtrend that might lead one to think it was going to run up.
Keeping that in mind, it should see substantial resistance at $1.10 (demonstrated support or resistance a total of four times recently beginning 4/23) and will bump into the falling 50-day before that (currently $1.04 and falling ~0.009/day). Then there's the old psychological "round numbers" that might delay or reverse things at $1.
I would wait to see what it does at $1.10 and what the TA indicators (especially volume) suggest will happen next.
Good scenario # 1 is a good move up is suggested and you've missed a few pennies of potential upside. With next demonstrated price points in the $1.30 area, a possible ~18% gain on a trade could be made if it runs up and you are in around $1.10. This assumes that in the $1.30-$1.35 area a risk of reversal is seen and you decide to take profit and reenter when it starts to run up again after another down leg (in which case you are "swing trading").
If it runs on by $1.3x, on strength, it could do $1.45 before hiitting points of resistance based on a 1-year chart.
My initial most likely scenario ATM is a touch of $1.10 and then a typical retrace to ~$0.90, a reversion to the mean. From there it's, again, a toss-up as to which way it might want to go.
Of course, any catalyst would affect my assumptions and lack of them would leave me adjusting things as the TA stuff progresses.
Right now, the TA oscillators all say "bullish" but they are only to be viewed cautiously on these small-cap, volatile and speculative (enough negative adjectives? :-) stocks.
This is one of those that, for long-term investors, I would always advocate heavy consideration of pain tolerance and, depending on that, maybe looking to enter when things suggest the bottom has been seen (might be already - $0.70 6/28-29) and there's a decent chance that it will be moving to some sustainable higher "fair value".
Thanks HTL. was hoping you might "download" your thoughts into a post. I will start watching from the sidelines and keep the above check box checked...
(UQM) & CODA: Over in the AXPW Concentrator 124, Iindelco posted a link to this article on CODA's effort with Great Wall manufacturing in China. It adds a some color to what we already know, so I thought I'd add it in here.
Of note is that one of CODA's divisions, Coda EV Propulsion Systems, will apparently supply the powertrain. "...The new EV will feature Coda's propulsion and battery technologies ...".
This must be the piece (UQM) is hoping to participate in. Since CODA will already have familiarity and various agreements in place with UQM, I think there's a reasonable chance the UQM inks the deal. This possibility seems enhanced by Phil Murtaugh's (the CEO) links with China, described in the article. There's experienced "boots on the ground".
My biggest concern would be if there's insistence that IP and/or manufacturing know-how be transferred to China, possibly via a JV manufacturing arrangement, of the UQM product.
I would prefer to see assemblies just shipped from here.
H.T.Love ... Here is the latest article I've found could be good competition to UQM. Not easy to follow but since they displayed and electric Ford F-150 in 2010 I've been interested.
Interesting indeed, HTL. I've wondered about the current status of those in-wheel motors since first reading about them a year or two ago.
The article's discussion of battery packs left some questions though. Li-ion packs underneath and outside the passenger compartment did not strike me as feasible from a safety standpoint.
This is no competition to UQM or any other motor builder in the foreseeable future, if ever. Subjecting a motor to the impacts of the road without any suspension in between means the components have to be built much stronger, which means more expensive. Electric motors are already smaller than ICE motors and can fit underneath the vehicle without intruding into storage or passenger areas, as Tesla has shown. I don't think the advantages of wheel motors outweigh their negatives.
>jpr ... I nearly saddens me to agree that in general transport wheel motors make not a lick of sense. I do see a market for them in material handling & civil engineering.
JRP3: Eh, not so quick. Yes, those are valid concerns. But recall that there is a suspension in between. Many folks overlook the fact that a pneumatic tire is a vital part of the suspension and provides very predictable and tunable "cushioning" (read: reduces rates of acceleration and deceleration) to anything moving in concert with it. As the article notes, the majority of the forces are transmitted and absorbed by the suspension, not the components. There is *usually* very little "shock" as long as tires are kept properly inflated (and replaced as tread wears) and the suspension is maintained (replace dampers, etc.).
The article raises the basic issue and acknowledges that suspension tuning will be needed. For very heavy vehicles, the added unsprung weight s/n/b an issue for ride quality and handling, so there's lots of room for strengthening components *if* that is indeed needed, I think. As with anything, the trades-offs may justify the cost in weight, handling and $. The gains for heavy vehicles look to be substantial.
Also, some of the stuff may be ICs - which are *relatively* immune to the g-forces that might be expected and (to a large degree) the "shocks".
Being a guy that likes to drive well-handling vehicles, I am most concerned with "unsprung weight". Even if strengthening of components is not needed, the added mass, especially at the end of the momentum arm, would be a big negative for me since it makes it more difficult for the suspension to maintain contact patch as effectively under extremes.
I think an overlooked (maybe?) negative is the anticipated damage to those components being placed, effectively, outboard of the vehicle. During any mishap, those things closest to the outside suffer first and most, as a rule, lending some credence to your "strengthening needed" issue. But that would really only be an insurance-cost issue ISTM. Even if one of the wheels were damaged to the point of inoperability, the remaining wheel(s) could still move the vehicle.
There is also the loss of torque multiplication through gear reduction, and the loss of efficiency by running at lower motor speeds. A single 200ftlb motor with a 6:1 gear reduction provides 1200ft.lb. wheel torque, you don't get that from a hub motor. The hub motor is also forced to run at lower less efficient motor speeds. I also think you are discounting the hardening and extra cost that will be needed for a hub motor to survive for years with nothing but a tire between it and the road. I do think there are some applications where a hub motor makes good sense, but probably not passenger vehicles.
Good points, and I certainly can't speak with any knowledge about hardening and it's associated costs.
As to torque loss, that's somewhat made up for by torque x #_of_wheels. Remove losses from differentials, drive shafts, weight, ... and it might come near being a wash for some (many?) applications. Of course, if they are really talking *heavy* vehicles, I think you have a strong argument - unless the number of wheel motors gets larger, e.g. greater than 4(?), they wouldn't be able to get as much torque.
Ignoring my concerns about unsprung weight, damage, etc., ISTM they would be more appropriate for passenger vehicles, which need less torque than heavy stuff. Also recall that they *might* be able to have a relatively flat torque curve a la UQM, if patents don't prevent that.
Good thoughts all around - it'll be interesting to see if they make any headway and, if so, in what areas. It would be good, if they do make progress, to see them license some of patent-protected stuff from UQM, like the electronic phase control that gives a broad torque curve.
That might give us another revenue stream w/o any capital costs or COGS.
>jpr & H.T.Love ... Where I see these wheel motors gaining in in tracked vehicles, rail & gantry cranes. In heavy wheeled vehicles these might work in slow load moving types where suspension weight can be transferred via non-drive wheels. Gear reduction is going to be a fact of life under load until some super motor can be designed or the load is considered light (cars?) or graduated (fans?). I find them interesting (they are an old idea just now coming into reality) but no real dominant technology. Still like UQM better.
(UQM): "KleenSpeed® Electric Race Car Sets New Record, Powered by UQM PowerPhase® Electric Propulsion System"
Fourth consecutive year, used PowerPhasse Select 145 motor and controller, and ...
"The car beat its previous record by more than six seconds, for a new EV record lap time of 1 minute, 32.046 seconds on Mazda Raceway Laguna Seca. In addition to setting a new lap time record, the KleenSpeed EV-X11 took first place in the Open Prototype class, beating a Tesla Model S Prototype and other vehicles. It also had the fastest lap time of all competitors in all classes".
Iindelco posted a link to another article about that in-wheel motor set up - looks to have a touch of PR as it seems to make efficiency gains claims that would be possible only if they were comparing to some vehicle that didn't take full advantage of re-gen etc.
"UK-developed wheel motor system wins $84m of funding to enter production in China "
Well, it won't take long for the Chinese to start competing with them.
JRP3: I see it! I wonder if he might benefit by talking to the Wrightspeed folks. I don't know how much that step-down gearbox on the plane weighs, but I know Wrightspeed has an electric two-speed that one man can handle easily.
If the Wrightspeed unit is lighter, that's always a plus in aircraft. On a second view though, that gearbox looks like it couldn't weigh much at all.
It looks like the output shaft goes straight through to the backside too. I assume that's to drive pumps and whatnot for hydraulics?
In that terrain, it would be unusual for even a novice pilot to not successfully glide in and land. With weight and balance within design limits and the glide ratio known in advance from the design stage, all the pilot has to do is pick their touchdown point and maintain max glide range speed (part of the pilot's manual for the craft) and adjust it to account for distance to touch down, etc. That's the hard part - judging how much speed to bleed off without losing so much that you land short.
'Course, there it wouldn't make much difference - even on the sand would be a good landing. As they say, "any landing you walk away from is a good one".
(UQM): "UQM Technologies to Hold Conference Call Tuesday, July 31, 2012 at 4:30 P.M. Eastern Time"
"... dial 1-877-941-8631 approximately 10 minutes before the conference is scheduled to begin and provide conference ID code “4556393” to access the call. International callers should dial 1-480-629-9867".
(UQM): "UQM Technologies Reports First Quarter Operating Results"
Their bullet points: Total revenue increased 82% year-over-year to $2.4 million Gross profit increased 58% year-over-year to $0.9 million Strong growth in product revenue was driven by deliveries to an automotive OEM and others.
ETrade shows expected earnings of ($0.03). Reported was ($0.04), "... increase in net loss for the first quarter was due primarily to higher recruiting, relocation and payroll costs related to recent additions to the senior management team and increased levels of marketing and travel expenditures related to our business development strategy for the Chinese market".
UQM stands a chance of becoming cashflow positive this year and profitable by the end of their fiscal year. Now the challenge is to figure out when it might emerge from "The Valley of Death".
I just finished listening to the CC. The only thing I didn't like, but I know it's endemic to the auto industry (and Riddenhour(sp?) confirms), reminded me of (TSLA): ramp up delayed to address final issues before going to volume production.
That caused all of the inventory they had bought for CODA to be on the books for the full quarter. Combined with the increased SG&A from efforts in China (Great Wall & CODA), expense related to adding executive talent, ... I think that caused their miss on earnings.
If CODA performs the way Eric indicated they would, based on sit-downs he had with CODA's head, the inventory should get eaten in the next few quarters I guess and turn into revenues and profit.
SAAB is being resurrected and UQM is talking with their new management.
AUDI's phase 2 build is completed.
Much more, but I can't remember it all now.
They sounded positive though. No need to raise cash is foreseen at this time.
As soon as the results came out, pps dropped to $0.80. If it does similar over the next couple days, I think I'll add a couple small lots. My position is so small right now that if it rocketed I wouldn't care. I just want to wait until it either bottoms in the downward channel or breaks above it though.
Might be tough with "all things green" being out of favor in the investment community ATM.
I think the valley exit is easy *if* one of the big delivery outfits buy in. If they don't, it's likely a long slog depending on auto (and we *know* how fast that goes, don't we!) and/or smaller outfits like Wrightspeed.
Like you, I'm hopeful that CFP and maybe even a small profit in a year will materialize. But there was one point about that in the CC - margins get smaller in large-scale production as compared to the various smaller efforts they have been doing.
The good part, to me, was I didn't hear anything that sounded like a show-stopper and there was a brief description of the CODA dealers clamoring for product. If true, we may be surprised how fast cash and profitability improve.
(UQM): Some more positive PR from the Olympics in London. The difference is a statement "... that plans to put the vehicles into full production after a successful test program in 2012".
"UQM PowerPhase Pro® 100 Powering Zero Emission Taxicabs During London 2012 Summer Olympics "
Some bullet points, the last of which seems to deliver a possibility.
- Iconic London taxicabs include a fleet of zero-emission vehicles used to transport Olympic athletes and dignitaries - The vehicle has a range of 250 miles and refuels in five minutes Consortium of companies developed proposal to create zero-emission taxicab - Full production of the vehicle is possible with successful test fleet results
Later in the article ...
"... A consortium of companies – Intelligent Energy, Lotus Engineering, TRW Conekt and London Taxi International – put forward a proposal to develop hydrogen fuel cell taxicabs and approached the British Government for research support and funding.
The UQM PowerPhase Pro 100 electric motor provides power to the rear wheels of the vehicle. A fuel cell system designed by Intelligent Energy works in conjunction with a high voltage battery pack and a UQM DC-to-DC converter to provide power for the vehicle. According to Intelligent Energy, the company plans to put the vehicles into full production after a successful test program in 2012".
Unfortunately the negative PR of having to shut down the hydrogen fueling stations and truck the cars away for fueling because of safety concerns points out yet another short coming of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. I don't see a realistic future for HFCV's so I can't get too excited by any projects using UQM for them. We need real volume EV production using UQM.
"(UQM) PowerPhase Select® Drive System Powers EV Engineering All-Electric Passenger Car to an Unofficial World EV Distance Record"
- EV Engineering sets an unofficial world distance record for an all-electric car of 1,172 miles within a 24 hour period - Australian-based EV Engineering uses the UQM PowerPhase Select® electric propulsion system to power its fleet of all-electric EV Commodore passenger cars
"The EV Engineering project converted a fleet of locally manufactured Holden Commodore passenger cars to proof-of-concept electric vehicles to demonstrate the technical viability and attractiveness to customers of a full-size electric car. If successful, technologies used in the project could be considered for possible future mass production".
"... swap battery packs via stations created by infrastructure provider Better Place. The team swapped battery packs after completing each loop during this long-distance run".
(UQM), (RMYI): Just tracking some potential competition, thanks to a link from the APC by Iindelco, IIRC.
"Progressive Concept Heavy-Duty Hybrid Truck Powered by Remy Motor"
They claim "... will use Remy's HVH410 electric traction motor and generator, a customizable assembly that is proven to have the highest efficiency and most power density available". But no specs are given there.
Don't know if this makes you more or less worried :-)
(and I have no idea when this was announced)
Remy Receives Grant for Electric Motors
"Remy International, Inc. has been nominated to receive a $60.2 million grant under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act - Electric Drive Vehicle Battery and Component Manufacturing Initiative. This is a matching funds grant to support U.S. manufacturing of components used to produce hybrid electric and electric vehicles. It will support Remys efforts to build the next generation of lower cost, higher performance electric motors and controls."
Wtb: No worry. Glad to see government investing in something that has demonstrated some past success for a change. There's lots of room in the sector for multiple companies and competition will keep 'em on their toes.
UQM has the DOE grant for development of non-REE magnet motors in hand as well. There could well be some cross-licensing between these companies that benefit them both.
Wtb: that's a great find, IMO. That puts UQM facilities right where they need to be to *know* in advance how a particular combination of components will perform in the end product.
That's got to provide a boost to initial potential customer discussions.
I'm thinking part of this is likely funded with some of the DOE funds too, but I'm not sure.
(UQM): "UQM Technologies Will Display All-new PowerPhase HD® Drive System at 2012 HTUF "
- The all-new PowerPhase HD® 220, the most powerful electric motor launched by the company, was developed specifically to meet the needs of the commercial vehicle market
- The HTUF conference and expo is focused on the commercialization of hybrid, electric and advanced technologies for the medium- and heavy-duty vehicle industries
(UQM): WTBlanchard posted links to articles about CODA over in the Axion concentrator. Since UQM has a dependence on CODA, I thought we would link here too.
A little more upbeat is "CODA: We Have 1,000 Reservations, And We Are Going To Take 15% Of The EV Market", although when you look at the numbers it's not *that* upbeat in nature.
JRP3: Yep. And worse, even in the eco-friendly areas here, we don't see the numbers of EV sales available (yet?) that suggest a boom coming.
We might see better results in China (Great Wall), which CODA is working with, since their centrally-planned and funded mandates can have greater effect than free-market forces in a nation used to cheap energy and maximum personal flexibility.
If CODA does have the expertise mentioned and other manufacturers want to take advantage, CODA might do well, but sell few cars, hurting (UQM)'s prospects in the automotive sector.
There is a *possibility* that others, such as Wrightspeed, Audi, ... that are using UQM product might eventually succeed, but that sure is an iffy proposition with the world economies going through reducing growth ATM.
(UQM): "UQM Technologies Announces Strategic Alliance in China to Broaden its Global Customer Base"
"... signed a memorandum of understanding with a major Chinese company for the development and marketing of UQM electric propulsion systems for New Energy Vehicles (NEV) in China ..."
"... work collaboratively to introduce UQM products into the Chinese market for use in New Energy Vehicles. The China State Council published its New Energy Vehicles plan in July, 2012, setting a goal of 500,000 energy-efficient and clean vehicles on the road in China by 2015, and five million vehicles by 2020".
“With annual revenue of over $5 billion, our Chinese partner has a substantial footprint throughout China and is well-positioned to introduce our products to the country’s developing New Energy Vehicle market".
I wonder if this is "Great Wall", which they have mentioned in the past?
"... signed a memorandum of understanding with a major Chinese company for the development and marketing of UQM electric propulsion systems for New Energy Vehicles (NEV) in China ..."
"Development" is the word I'm unsure about ... if they're developing something better, what's the risk it becomes "all theirs?"
Not clear exactly what they're "developing" ... that is whether they're referring to the motor or to EVs in general or BOTH.
Wtb: good questions. With no additional detail, I wouldn't have any idea how to assess the IP risk.
There's many levels in which development and marketing could occur that would pose no risk. Others would, I think, pose a high risk.
If the JV is limited to, say, energy management systems that made the U.S. built motors most efficient for the Chinese market use, I would see little risk. This could be encompassed in "systems". Ditto with assembly-only operations and, of course marketing which might be unique to the Chinese market.
If it includes, or even touches on, the proprietary motor management algorithms and/or the magnets and/or motors, I'd say the U.S. taxpayer financed another successful Chinese rip-off.
With all the publicity, I'd think UQM management has to be aware of those risks and are taking appropriate precautions.
My big concern ATM would be the price of REEs in China are much lower than ex-China right now (and will be so for a long time). If those lower prices lure the UQM management into manufacturing either the magnets or motors there, it's "Sayonara" from me after a while.
(UQM): "UQM Technologies Expands its Marine Applications with Electric Propulsion System for Mylne Bolt 18 Yacht Tender"
"PowerPhase Pro® 100 electric propulsion system is powering the new all-electric Mylne Bolt 18 yacht tender, which debuted in September at the 2012 Monaco Yacht Show."
"Mylne has been making distinctive yachts since 1896, and the Bolt 18 is the company’s first all-electric vessel."
"The boat is exceeding all of our expectations in terms of speed, acceleration, power-to-weight ratio, quietness and ride quality,” said David Gray, President and Owner of Mylne Yacht Design. “The UQM electric motor propels the Bolt 18 from 0-30 knots in just three seconds, raising the eyebrows of several groups at the Monaco Yacht Club.".
>H.T.Love ... Marine applications is what I hold UQM for. These guys could become the Cummins of the hybrid marine propulsion world. So far in ferries & tenders I don't see anyone else that is of UQM's scale.
I also think there's a good future there. If combined with CPST micro-turbines running either NG or diesel (preferred for a lot of reasons I think) (they have some in Europe doing this already) for more demanding applications ...
"Marine applications is what I hold UQM for. These guys could become the Cummins of the hybrid marine propulsion world."
Interesting. I haven't held UQM for a couple of years now because I just did not see where growth needed to turn a profit might come from. Time for another look perhaps.
>D-inv ... People have been fixated on auto EV to the exclusion of all else. Someday the economy will recover, take a breath and look around for real growth & conservation. I don't know when or within my life time. Changes in marine technology is similar to electric utilities for speed of up-take. Don't get in a rush.
(UQM): "UQM Technologies to Hold Conference Call Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 4:30 P.M. Eastern Time"
"To participate in the call dial 1-888-561-1799 approximately 10 minutes before the conference is scheduled to begin and provide conference ID code “4570874” to access the call. International callers should dial 1-480-629-9678".
"... access to a recording will be available for 48 hours following the call. Dial 1-800-406-7325 and enter replay access code 4570874# to access the playback. International callers should dial +1-303-590-3030. Please allow one hour from the time of the conference call for initial setup before access".
Really? No web access in either real time or afterwards?
No transcript? (that I could find on the investor relations tab)
On the other hand, I did like this from the Investor Relations FAQ
16. Is it possible to tour the Company’s facilities?
Yes, it is possible to tour our facilities; however, the tour may be restricted to only certain areas of our facilities due to the confidential nature of our work for customers. In addition, visits are limited to personnel availability and scheduling considerations. If you would like to arrange a visit, please contact investor relations at 303-682-4900 x4918 or e-mail investor@uqm.com.
Wtb: I think because of the relatively small size, government loans, ... history of running on their own dime and little analyst coverage yet (even on the CC not many analysts yet), they just haven't considered spending $ for that yet. I don't know what it costs.
I'm with them on this if it costs much - they are still very early in getting to some commercial scale. And lots of risk in the current customer base.
"UQM Technologies Reports Second Quarter Operating Results"
"Total revenue was $1.2 million, a decrease of 49% year-over-year versus $2.3 million for the second quarter of last year. Net loss for the second quarter was $2.6 million, or $0.07 per common share, versus a net loss of $1.6 million, or $0.04 per common share, for the comparable period last year.
Meanwhile, we took significant steps this quarter to further diversify our customer base and grow our worldwide presence, by entering emerging territories such as China. These business development activities are a critical investment in the future growth of the business.”
“Second quarter revenue was impacted by the slow pace of the CODA vehicle launch. We remain optimistic that CODA will resume its production ramp-up given its announced plans, including ..."
Tim: took a look at the charts and it seemed certain to get there on first glance. Beyond that, the slowness of CODA is presenting a real risk and the Great Wall hook-up (China), if that's the one they're working ATM, is some distance off.
However, looking more closely, it's paused just above a rising trend (currently ~0.80) and looks to be consolidating with almost all the oscillators in oversold - often a signal that it may reverse.
There's no rush on this as I think the long-term news stories will control the action forward. That's why my current positions a quite small - just enough to keep them on the radar.
Personally, I'm waiting to add when it bottoms, which it *may* be doing. But from there it can just as likely go sideways for a long time before deciding to break either up or down.
>Tim Enright ... I, too, am waiting and will add in the low 80's and 70's while leaving room for an Axion-like experience. I don't see this company doing much price appreciation until 2016-2017. The saving grace for this company is their engineering department. They do a lot of designing/evaluation for other companies and it doesn't hurt they have a shop floor for prototyping.
They do need to make enough income to keep the doors open on their shiny new factory. My hope (bad investment thesis) is that marine, DOD & DOE will keep cashflow at or above break even. There is better than even chance that hybrid tractor trucking could be what becomes the mainstay business. We shall see.
DRich: another good possibility is buses - Proterra and others are doing a lot with electric drive on buses.
I'm also hopeful that the taxi biz they tested with for the Olympics might pay off. Taxi's are almost always in urban settings, close to their depot, spend a lot of time stopping and starting, ... Seems like a very good potential application because there's no appreciable "range anxiety" in play.
If they have cab stands in use, convenient recharging for pure EV's might be available too. Then a PbC might top it off nicely - fast recharge and total energy content less concern! :-)
>H.T.Love ... I don't believe in pure EV's for anything that doesn't have a fixed route or very limited range. Taxis are not on my list. Hybrids like the Prius or Volt (if they fix that plug problem) with electric motors are my preference.
(UQM): "UQM Technologies PowerPhase® System Delivers Record-breaking Performance for Ecotricity Nemesis Electric Vehicle "
-UQM PowerPhase® controller and motor were used to power Nemesis vehicle to a new UK land speed record of 151 m.p.h.
"According to Ecotricity, the Nemesis can accelerate 0-100 m.p.h. in 8.5 seconds, and under road legal conditions, has a range of up to 150 miles. The UQM PowerPhase electric motor and controller are powered by green electricity produced by Ecotricity windmills, for delivery over the grid".
(UQM): "UQM Technologies Makes Breakthrough in Non-Rare-Earth Electric Motor Design Under DOE Development Program"
- Patent-pending electric motor design provides competitive power-density and efficiency without using rare-earth magnets
- Work is funded through a $4 million cost-share award to UQM as part of a DOE Advanced Research and Development Grant
“The key to using non-rare-earth magnets in electric motors for vehicles is our patent-pending motor geometry, which in part defines the shape and magnetization direction of the permanent magnets,” said Jon Lutz, UQM Technologies’ Vice President of Engineering. “The completion of the electromagnetic design and analysis task is a significant step in the process of advancing motor and generator technology for electric and hybrid electric vehicles, providing an alternative to rare-earth magnets in permanent-magnet motor designs".
(UQM): " UQM Technologies PowerPhase® System Drives Newly-developed Parallel-Series-Electric Powertrain Developed by EDI "
"... highly adaptable to existing vehicle platforms" "UQM motors and controllers are central to the electric-drive powertrain which ..."
"... initial testing of the platform has been completed, and EDI is currently in contract discussions with multiple truck manufacturers and a bus manufacturer ..."
Drich et al: My hope as well. But it makes so much sense that I doubt that we'll see any great support from TPTB for this sort of solution in spite of the fact that the concept has proven both environmentally beneficial and economically viable, via consumer acceptance of such as the Prius, and we are talking about, essentially, scaling up to implement a solution like this.
The only real downside I see is the up-front cost being higher for the parallel hybrid solution vs. a pure serial solution. But over the long-haul I think the TCO would at least come even. Compared to an all-Li-ion BEV it might even come a winner.
As we know, (UQM) had a heavy near-term dependence on CODA's success to have a chance of making relatively quick ramps in key metrics. With CODA's near-term success seemingly off the table, we are left settled into our small starter positions awaiting some of the longer-term, but likely more probable, successes in other areas as the path forward. With major manufacturers pushing out more HEVs over the next few years (Nissan recently announced 15 new models in planning) and public acceptance of such as the Prius suggesting many successes possible there, I think that UQM is still a good "sock drawer" stock. There's also activity in heavier commercial vehicle applications on the horizon.
But I'll tell ya' - patience is way over-rated. :-((
I've been thinking about it too. Can't decide whether the larger motors for trucking applications and the foundation business of general-purpose motors (windshield wiperws, window motors, ...) justifies hanging in there or not. Oh, they're a supplier to Parker-Hannefin to for some converters and such, IIRC.
One of the major European auto-makers that are testing could come through, but I think only hybrid applications will ever achieve any real volume and I don't recall any PR that those folks are doing hybrids.
You can now buy a Coda for less than UQM was charging individuals for the motor and inverter, a lot less with rebates. http://edmu.in/VraZj3 Cheapest way to get a UQM system to date. Pull everything out of that crappy looking Chinese glider and put it all into a decent used ICE of your choice for a sweet conversion.
"Total revenue for the quarter was down 29% year-over-year to $1.9 million" - due principally to no shipments to CODA in the quarter versus the $1.5 million we shipped in the same quarter last year - sales to our existing customers increased 52% versus last year - [HTL: regarding CODA] "... However, the passing of another quarter without payments and the recent CODA announcement that they were furloughing employees has created substantial uncertainty for us. As a result, we made the decision to record a charge of $3.8 million during the quarter, which Don will detail later. In the event CODA is unable to secure funding, we may need to record additional charges in future periods, we believe that these would fall in the range of $1 million to $2 million".
"... new PowerPhase Pro system that we're shipping to CODA is rightsized for many passenger, medium-duty truck and marine applications. We've already sold some of the units out of the CODA inventory to other customers ... we can also utilize certain components from this inventory in our other products as well. These additional sales will allow us to monetize the inventory and improve our cash position over time".
"We're also taking further steps to proactively manage our cash position and lower our expenses in light of the lack of news from CODA. These actions include a staff reduction of approximately 20% announced today and other cost reduction initiatives to improve our operating efficiency. We've also reconfigured our high volume production line to allow it to build either the PowerPhase Pro used for CODA or the PowerPhase HD used for our commercial customers. This provides needed capacity for the growth of the HD without requiring an all-new line and will save us $2 million to $3 million in future CapEx".
"... We expect these actions to substantially reduce our cost base and lower our cash burn rate by as much as 1/3".
"... First, shipments to EVI hit their stride this quarter, adding nearly $0.75 million to our revenue. Their first units were used by UPS for internal testing and confirmation, and these units are being built into completed trucks by EVI and sent to UPS. Having successfully completed that phase, the trucks are now in field service, collecting valuable data. The early indications are very positive".
"Proterra recently announced an additional capital infusion of $23 million. We shipped units to Proterra in third quarter and will increase shipments in subsequent quarters. Proterra is currently in discussions with or has signed contracts with municipalities in California, Florida, Massachusetts, Texas and South Carolina for the potential sales of an additional 70 electric buses. We also shipped units to Boulder EV for their all electric delivery van in the third quarter and will ship additional units ongoing".
"ReGen Nautic displayed 5 different products with UQM systems in them at the Paris boat show".
[HTL] There's several paragraphs discussing their China efforts, including the activities of NEVS, the SAAB successor. They think that due to prior work with SAAB UQM offers the best path forward for NEVS.
From French's financials starting on page 3.
"Excluding CODA shipments from last year's revenue, total revenue increased 52% year-over-year. This increase was driven by an acceleration in propulsion system deliveries to Electric Vehicles International to $735,000 as deliveries by EVI of all electric delivery vehicles to UPS grew".
[HTL] discussing future possible charges and reserves related to CODA weakness: "We estimate the potential amount of these settlements, in the aggregate, to be in the range of $1 million to $2 million".
[HTL] He then discusses the drawdown of the CODA inventory for use elsewhere and to monetize that inventory. Adds some words about other cost-cutting measures.
"We believe our current cash balances will be sufficient to fund our operations for more than 2 years. The expected proceeds from the sale of our old facility in Frederick will add an additional year of runway. In addition to our foreign liquidity, our expenditures on future development activities and equipment will be aided significantly by our $45 million DOE grant, of which approximately $25 million remains available to fund activities through January of 2015".
[HTL] from the Q&A regarding drawsown of CODA inventory: "...On the standpoint of the drawdown, we have people that we're aware of that we've already shipped units to that are testing those. With success we'll start seeing again follow-on orders and again, the kind of follow-up pattern, they'll send us a few for testing and then it's a good handful, and then some significant numbers over that. ...".
[HTL] Discussion of what's happening in China begins with a question from Unknown Attendee on the last page. They cut him off as he started grousing about disparity between PR and results.
Then discussion continues with Unknown Analyst that is interesting to me.
[HTL] Regarding progress on the HD 220 product .. "One is from a customer looking at the specifications and reacting, we've got nothing but positive signs. And then in addition, we have now a number of them heading into real production and in vehicles and running tests and accumulating mileage. And those have all also been positive and obviously, we'll continue to do that. So at this point, it looks like we definitely have got a motor in the sweet spot. Stay tuned, because we might have other things coming in the future along that way, ... We're not quite ready to announce, but stay tuned".
[HTL] Some discussion of the military stuff and non-REE efforts takes place - no detailed stuff.
Sorry. Missed the link at the end of your very long (over a browser page) quote-a-thon. Also missed the word transcript at the start ... assumed it was from the PR on the earnings release. My bad.
D Lane: I would wait for one of the "stay tuned" items to appear. In the charts, nothing right now suggests a strong run up.
Of course, might be the best time to buy, but ...
(UQM) was really counting on CODA and until they either get themselves going in a positive direction or one or more of UQM's "stay tuned" items bears fruit, I think the potential opportunity cost is too high for other than a small speculative position. We can see the risk, but the potential reward for now is undefined. So we can't really determine any kind of future direction ATM. We have little visibility very far out for now other than they are reacting positively to control costs and have lots of runway left due to the cash balance and cost reductions.
(UQM): UQM Technologies and Proterra Complete New Three-Year Electric Propulsion System Supply Agreement
- UQM is the exclusive supplier of electric propulsion systems to Proterra - Proterra to purchase newly introduced UQM PowerPhase HD® 220 propulsion system - New agreement expands the volume of systems that UQM will provide Proterra for its EcoRide™ BE35 battery-electric buses - Initial orders for 20 systems have already been placed under the agreement
D Lane: Proterra has some other advantages. Recharge in 10 minutes vs. the overnight (5-6 hrs. I think the article said?), for one. I'm sure some locations would be fine with overnight charging, others might not be. I didn't see any range/charge in the Proterra stuff, but I didn't really look very hard.
UQM). If BYD is successful, they might find the more-efficient(?) UQM motors attractive too and become a customer, and as "local production" has some cost, service and political advantages ... their planned California plant might be a potential buyer of UQM stuff.
I would love to see other OEM's embrace UQM. The use of federal funds for transit buses means I believe 60% of the bus has to be US origin.
The electric bus market will get a big boost soon (albeit from a starting point of next to nothing) as the emissions laws in Southern California require transit agencies to have a percentage of vehicles that are zero emissions. LA MTA will be ordering 30 this year and eventually have 300 in their fleet, their contract should be awarded in June or July. Long Beach will have 10 and an option to buy up to 20 more.
>H.T.Love ... This is great news into a market where UQM should do very well. This 220 motor, I think, will become their signature product because I think it could work into trucking. Maybe not Class 8 (may have to wait for just a little more h.p. for single motor solution, though I'm not convinced) but below that .... gensets for everyone.
DRich: I wouldn't be surprised if some low-level development on a larger motor wasn't underway. Wrightspeed is using some of UQM's stuff for their conversions, which I suspect will be quite successful in the class ... 5-7(?) market.
With the ePower conversion effort I'm sure UQM is alert enough to both notice it and maybe be working on a relationship.
>H.T.Love ... I don't know how much these 220's cost but I was thinking that ePower could make a mountain goat with two motors driving the tandem and do it with the same or smaller diesel. That would be about 400 h.p. to the wheels and a huge improvement in delivered H.P. over a 400-500 h.p. engine. It would work the batteries really, really hard ... but that doesn't worry me.
Also totally free speculation ... but donations are willingly accepted.
DRich: A "two-wheeler" was my thought too when you mentioned the HP. I didn't mention it because I didn't know if the motor cost was larger enough that two would ruin the economics.
I'm unsure about the same or smaller diesel though. There's some really long hills in some parts of the country that would likely drain the batteries, leaving the unit reliant on the IC HP, via the generator, for the remainder of the climb. I would *think* if I had the need for more motor (in the electrical sense), I'd also have need for more motor (in the NASCAR sense) too. This because we really don't want the added weight of more and more batteries where we have really long hills, even if infrequent.
I'd still have good fuel gains and we'd just tweak the software so the diesel could ramp up when *needed*, not just when the driver pushes the pedal to the metal. With route-mapping and GPS, the software could be "The Enforcer" (you feeling lucky today driver?).
Oh! I also wondered about two motors in-line. If the drive-line has enough room, different sizes of motors could be used to tailor available HP more precisely for very little overhead.
>H.T.Love ... If I'm thinking your thought of "in-line", like one output shaft connected to input, that makes no mechanical sense because for twice the electrical power expended you couldn't get any more than (lets say) 80% of the difference in h.p. rating. If they are the same ... your just wasting electricity. My idea of two motors ( the 220 can deliver 260 h.p.) is one right, one left which would be 190 - 240 kW @ 440 Vdc (how get there electrically I don't have a clue) and isn't the existing ePower engine ~200 h.p with a peak ~300?
DRich: my in-line thought didn't have them both powered continuously - separate circuits. There would be some overhead, in additional drag, from the motor that was "idling", but shouldn't be much, should it?
As to the "two-wheeler", I got that. That's what I would expect the normal two-motor installation to be. I was just thinking outside the box wondering if a two-motor in-line, separately controlled might have any advantage or not.
In a way, I envisioned it similar to the RR "consist" with in-line genset locos mated with one or more electrical ones.
>H.T.Love ... Can't get more out of a generator than it can produce no matter how many circuits it goes into. Your idea would work just like a train ... just add more engines, generators & driven wheels.
It's logical fallacy that is easy enough to make because it is made by "experts" all the time. Think about it 100 hp motor shafted to a 200 hp motor. It is true (forgetting the generator thingy) that under heavy load the 200 hp would overdrive the 100 beyond its operational limits but not by an additional 100 hp. The smaller motor would act as a brake or resistor or whatever functional "drag" name you want & make getting to 200 hp output with 300 hp of motor very hard and very hot.
(UQM): " Audi Expands Testing of A1 e-tron with UQM Technologies PowerPhase® Electric Drive System "
- Audi has logged over 50,000 kilometers in its first phase of testing with the A1 e-tron extended-range electric vehicles - The company will expand testing the vehicle in the NPE (National Platform of Electrification) in Germany in 2013 - The test vehicles are equipped with UQM PowerPhase Select® 125 drive systems
"The German Federal Ministry of Education and Research is promoting this program to demonstrate and further develop the viability of electric vehicles. Audi will participate in the regions of Bavaria/Saxony, Berlin-Brandenburg and Baden-Württemberg, addressing different focal topics in each area". http://bit.ly/11GUw0x
BYD won the contract but the buyers put in an insurance clause: http://bit.ly/10L2tz0
Not good for Proterra, especially since BYD says its building a factory in SoCal and thats where most of the market is at the moment. Over time, though, I would expect electric buses to play well in cities with cheap hydropower (or other cheap electricity)
D lane: Thx for that update. Now let's see if BYD does what the other article suggested - build a factory (near) there (or somewhere in CA) and/or bring their corporate office up to 150 employees they (apparently?) promised rather than the 40 they actually delivered on.
Regarding Long Beach buying electric buses from BYD instead of Proterra, there was a presentation on-line last night that seems to now be taken down. I was surprised that it showed BYD buses (I believe using a big LFP battery) costing the same up front as Proterra buses (using a smaller lithium-titanate battery) but less when you consider that BYD's bigger battery does not require expensive charging equipment. There was also other fuel costs noted that favored BYD. I suspect that is a plan to recharge at night vs. paying high prices in Long Beach California to recharge during peak periods.
They might be taking a chance on the range though.
D lane: there's another U.S. manufacturer that might appear here and there - Designline U.S. They have BEV and range-extended versions with Capstone C30/C65 turbines, and probably some conventional IC - I haven't checked this last.
They've had a tough time thus far - financial difficulties - but have had good results in Charlotte NC - near their plant - and a few other wins.
Yeah, DesignLine is more competition for Proterra--but a potential nice customer for Capstone. Not sure, but I think DesignLine uses proprietary motors.
Complete Coach Works takes old buses and converts them to electric using LiFePO4. Not sure of the motor. http://bit.ly/16iviEy Jay Leno takes a look http://bit.ly/YFbXv0
Any idea (sorry, don't follow these guys closely) if these components are the same ones as might have been in cancelled orders that they might have already built? Guessing most of the cancelled orders were for cars, not buses ...
Not to say that satisfied repeat customers aren't a good thing to have and publicize. PR would have been a little stronger with a quote from the Denver folks, preferably lauding the durability and or value. Wonder if there was a second bidder, and whether they had to give away much (or any) margin to seal the deal.
Wtb: Since the motors are UQM, I would suspect that "factory reconditioned" would carry some weight with the customer. There should be some profit margin in there, as with any service.
Probably not a huge percentage of revenue, but every little bit ...
I'm just holding on UQM ATM and (CPST) looks like it *might* be breaking out. But I want a second day of volume plus remaining above $0.95 and $0.93 before I add more. I'm happy with my $0.87 blocks ATM.
UQM is so far aligned with Proterra. I'm keeping an eye on the competition in the electric bus space.
BYD uses proprietary motors and controllers. http://bit.ly/10E0AHo (They also have their own iron phosphate batteries with proprietary battery management system)
Siemens will supply permanent magnet excited motors, inverters and voltage protection modules for the rear-axle drive systems of seven new all-electric buses being manufactured by DesignLine.
Formidable competition. UQM needs to make sure that tax-payer support for expended manufacturing capability doesn't end up being another DOE boondoogle.
I'm thinking UQM's best shot now is Audi/Saab - and I don't have any feel for the odds there - or Great Wall (or some other co.) in China. If anything offers volume, that's where it will be if Coda can't get resurrected. With what we know now about PHEV acceptance in the U.S. that seems unlikely.
Thanks for your thoughts, HTL. I don't have a feel for UQMs advantage in the space, but I am focused on heavy-duty EVs, especially buses. While the implementation is in its infancy, the potential operational cost savings that I see quoted (especially in areas where electricity is cheap) are certainly impressive!
DRich: More importantly, maybe, is since Protera and Designline(?) have established customers, passed the Altoona DOT tests, has manufacturing in the U.S. ... There's a decent chance that one of the two might garner the order.
One gets us (UQM) motors and the other gets (maybe range-extended, if needed) (CPST). Either way, two U.S. companies may benefit.
Unfortunately, Long Beach Transit voted to go ahead with BYD even after the above unflattering information was revealed in the press. . .They did add a clause which says BYD has to pay them back if certain performance metrics are not met:
"The motion carried with it a $14 million performance insurance policy that must be taken out by BYD to ensure that their buses are not only delivered before the June 2014 due date, but are also Altoona tested and Buy American approved. Company representatives say their Lancaster production plant will be producing by the beginning of next year and that a Chinese-built model constructed according to American specifications is currently on its way to Altoona. If the company should fail at any of the provisions listed on the performance insurance policy, BYD must repay the cost of the contract." http://tinyurl.com/bs4...
I think Proterra's best hope for this contract specifically is that BYD will not/can not live up to its own promises and eventually the contract goes back out for new bids.
At the bottom of this article, right before the comments, one can scroll through the criteria and rationale for choosing BYD over Proterra (and other bidders including DesignLine) http://bit.ly/186wSew It looks to me like the BYD bigger battery was favored here because of the cost of the quick chargers that Proterra has developed and because they can "opportunity charge" instead of recharge frequently during the day. BYD was also very competitive on the cost of the bus, despite the bigger battery. (I suspect a loss leader strategy?) I think the calculation will be very different in cities where electricity cost is very low, as in the Pacific Northwest. Especially, when BYD's quoted range proves to be a bit of a sham. http://bit.ly/L09Hs2
Last I knew Proterra was using Altairnano nano titante batteries, one of the most expensive, where BYD is I think using LiFePO4, one of the least expensive.
JRP3, Thanks. Any idea why lithium titanate would cost more? Or is it just because they *can* charge more since the battery has the reputed ability to cycle rapidly.
(Proterra is no doubt counting on BYD range claims to be proven to be hopium, so their rapid charging scheme can show itself to be the game-changer they planned it to be)
Not mentioned in the article is Wrightspeed. I'm optimistic that a couple years down the road they will be an important customer. They've been using the UQM motors since their earliest street-legal prototype sporty-car and, AFAIK, continue to use them in their truck conversions.
D Lane: I'd add some seasoning to that until more concrete details become available. The proprietary part might be their unit integration of motor and electronic-shift two-speed gear box, all in a single unit IIRC. That would necessitate a custom controller to sync the motor speed with the gears for the up and down-shifts.
I *guess* all this because they started with UQM and I don't believe Ian Wright would want to re-invent the wheel when he had such good success with UQM, and UQM has all the engineering talent, suppliers, *production capacity*, ... to be a good supplier to Wrightspeed.
I would love to hear more out of Wrightspeed about their progress. But watching these technologies progress leaves lots of time for other things in between.
Froggey77 posed a comment in the APC # 231 with links to EV related things. http://seekingalpha.co...
One of them was about the Audi e-tron getting a play in the Iron movie. IIRC, this is one of the models utilizing (UQM) motors, but I'd have to go dig to confirm it..
Let's hope some of the PR somehow bleeds over to UQM.
DRich: "That was easy"! :-)) I *am* getting old I guess. I thought the movie was doing an R8 (am I remembering correctly)... Per the Froggy post, it is. So A1 vs. R8?
More publicity regarding Long Beach Transit choosing BYD over Proterra. "Chinese company wins US subsidy" is the thrust of the article but that is not what interests me the most. I am convinced that BYD battery buses will not get anywhere near 150 miles in real world conditions. Hopefully, the buyers are aware of this. . . http://abcn.ws/17xBoSa
Nevertheless, the bigger battery won. Looks like Proterra's quick-charge solution worked against them in this case:
"Micheal Austin, a BYD vice president, tells ABC News that what tipped the procurement decision, he thinks, was the ability of BYD's buses to re-charge in a single overnight charge of 4-5 hours. "That was unique," he tells ABC. "The others had smaller batteries and needed in-route charging."
D Lane: I hope we can follow this as it plays out down the road. I think you've got a good chance of being on the money with the battery longevity in the route. Seldom are the testing protocols really right on with the real-world usage.
Garrett E. Mikita has been selected by the Proterra Board of Directors as the new president/CEO of Proterra Inc., the leading provider of zero-emission commercial transit solutions and the maker of the world's first all-electric fast-charge transit bus.
Mikita has spent 25 years in senior leadership roles in Fortune 50 companies and brings with him a wealth of experience and innovative approaches. He recently served as the president of the Defense & Space strategic business unit of Honeywell Aerospace, where he led the $5.3 billion organization. As president of the unit, Mikita was responsible for a wide range of engineering services, advanced technology products and logistical services to the U. S. Department of Defense, NASA, and international ministries of defense. http://bit.ly/YL7WaI
From president of the Defense & Space strategic business unit of Honeywell Aerospace (where he led the $5.3 billion organization) to Proterra. On paper, they have attracted someone who did not need to take this job. He must see something in the business.
D Lane: Prolly the same things we see? Great potential as they continue to expand their product line. Add in that REE prices haved tanked, giving (UQM) the potential of lower prices while still maintaining margin ... if volume starts to come in.
(UQM): "UQM Technologies to Hold Conference Call Thursday, May 23, 2013, at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time"
Thursday, May 23, 2013, at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time. To participate in the call, dial 1-888-549-7880 approximately 10 minutes before the conference is scheduled to begin and provide conference ID code “4620332” to access the call. International callers should dial +1-480-629-9770.
"... a recording will be available for 7 days following the call. Dial 1-800-406-7325 and enter replay access code 4620332# to access the playback. International callers should dial +1-303-590-3030. Please allow two hours from the time of the conference call for initial setup before access".
(UQM): " UQM Technologies Expands Its Production-Ready Commercial Vehicle Product Lineup with the Introduction of the High-Torque PowerPhase HD® 950T System "
- Newly introduced UQM PowerPhase HD® 950T is rated at 950 Nm of peak torque and is ideal for heavier commercial trucks and buses needing higher levels of torque, as well as parallel hybrid applications - UQM continues to expand its lineup of production-ready electric propulsion systems
"... designed for heavier commercial trucks and buses that require higher torque".
"... 144 kW of peak power and 100 kW of continuous power. This high torque level delivers better launch performance, grade climbing and acceleration for heavier vehicles. The power and speed range also make it possible to use this electric motor in conjunction with simplified transmissions.
In addition to full-electric vehicle applications, the PowerPhase HD® 950T is ideal for use in parallel hybrid applications. The higher torque and lower speed range optimizes the system for operation at engine speeds, a requirement in these types of powertrain systems".
>H.T.Love ... This is motor I've thought was the one for Class 6,7 & 8 trucks and light marine. Geared to each wheel or each side of a tandem your now talking of 200 h.p. @ 700 ft-lb directly to the wheels & operation exactly like a railroad locomotive. This should make mountain climbing a reality.
DRich: I sure hope ePower is looking. They've got a winning combo, I think, when they get it "fine tuned". The right battery and right motor/generator combo(s) would expand their range in the potential markets too.
A speculative play on UQM 271 comments
In fiscal 2010 they generated about $114.5K per employee (alternately, they are projected to generate $132K/employee using 2011 fiscal year estimates) in revenue annually, but there has been a transition undertaken that should bump that considerably if they are successful. Since fiscal 2010 actual revenues were only $8.3M, you can see from the estimates below that revenue per employee should jump substantially when you add in a new manufacturing facility being so automated. There should not be commensurate jump in head count.
P/S and P/B are nasty ATM. Fiscal estimates are for 2011 @ $10.3M, 2012 @ $33.2MM and 2013 @ $79.6M. If some of the irons in the fire hit, these could be absurdly low estimates, assuming they were generated before all these things came into play.
The most significant thing is the transition they are attempting from a more-or-less one-off design, engineering and contract firm to a high-volume-capable manufacturing outfit with supporting design and engineering services for both in-house and contract use. They have restructured into 4 operating segments to better suit their new strategy.
Along this same transition vein, they support their customers with GUI interfaces for the programming of control modules, reducing cost and shortening lead-times for them, especially important to the automotive industry.
The biggest steps in this transition are the new management team, brought in last year, that has large-scale automotive experience, a new manufacturing facility, DOE grants for the transition, Rolls-Royce selection of UQM for their EV, development fleets in test with SAAB and Audi, and production contracts with CODA (start-up, so can't really bank on that) and Proterra (has sales already in So. Cal. and elsewhere, but also new).
Remaining from their past activities, they also supply control modules to Eaton.
They sponsor a motorcycle racing team that just set new records with UQM equipment. Performance PR can't hurt.
Not listed in their materials yet is another start-up that uses their motors, Wrightspeed. You may recall that their initial target is class 2(?)-6 delivery vehicles and they received funding from California to get their manufacturing going.
ISTM that *if* just one of the start-ups or the majors hit it big, UQM will be OK. *If* oil prices remain high, *if* consumers begin to accept the various EVs they will be offered, *if* UQM can execute, ... they may become a quite profitable concern. That's a lot of big "ifs" just off the top of my head.
On the competition side, I only recall Parker-Hannifin, used in the CPST auto solution. But I've not yet gone looking. Barriers to entry should be fairly high as UQM holds many patents that make their motors more efficient, smaller, lighter, flexible, and they claim packaging makes them easier to integrate than many of their peers' products.
Adding to the barriers to entry would be the facilities, expertise, automotive validation process, and technology needed to enter a market where very high efficiency, reliability and longevity are at a premium.
As with any new application for a product, the first adopters may set the stage for a long trend of adoption by others. With high-end brands like Audi, Jaguar and Saab possibly getting the ball rolling, I can foresee some potential growth going on here. If any of the start-ups - Wrightspeed, CODA, Proterra - take off, that's icing on the cake.
At this point I still call it a speculative play, but one that seems to hold a little less fear for dipping a toe in the water. There are options available but I see no strike price, delta and pricing combinations that I like. OI is small so there's also not much liquidity in them
Under these conditions, it's better to just play the stock directly, IMO. I plan a small core position with trading blocks around it, as I do with most of my long-term holds.
Next reporting, IIRC, is for around 5/23. I'm not expecting any earth-shattering results and with the recent expenses of transition going on there might be a miss. However, with $45M in funding from the DOE, their cash position should remain quite reasonable.
Here's some links for folks that might have an interest. Your own DD and considertion of your personal profile should be paramount as this is certainly no slam-dunk at this point.
Here is a quick read of the latest company presentation (PDF).
Here is the latest shareholder meeting presentation (PDF) from 8/2009 (I haven't a clue as why there's not a more recent shareholder meeting - transition to new management team?).
Here is the UQM web site.
Since CODA is the largest single contract right now and it's a start-up, I thought investigastion into CODA's web site might be warranted - it's slim pickens (no, not the old western actor!) though.
As always, your own DD and profile should guide you and you should keep in mind my experimental nater (that is, I'm new and all).
HardToLove
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This post has 271 comments:
If you like, I'll go find the link - I should've bookmarked it when I encountered it. I need it in my links anyway.
Oh! Thank you for the kind words!
HardToLove
P.S. I remembered where I saw it and just stuck the link here to InvestorVillage post that links to the articles.
www.investorvillage.co...
www.businesswire.com/n...
Interesting that there was big selling pressure last evening. If we see big buying pressure this morning this may tell us something beyond the effects of PR after it's released. I'll have to start looking a short interest history and related.
A correction: I had mentioned Jaguar as using UQM - wrong. It's Rolls-Royce. I have corrected the body of the article within a few minutes of this post.
HardToLove
... Thursday, May 12, 2011 10:30 a.m. EDT, at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel in New York City
"... I’ll discuss the performance advantages of our products and the steps we have taken to prepare our company for potentially rapid growth".
www.businesswire.com/n...
HardToLove
May 24, 2011 at 11:25 a.m
www.businesswire.com/n...
SN will have a webcast available - I don't know if it's customers only though. We'll find out that day I guess.
www.tweisel.com/Stifel.../
HardToLove
"... June 1, 2011"
"... will be part of the Electric Vehicle Infrastructure panel on Wednesday, June 1, 2011 at 2:35 p.m"
There appears to be no webcast or dial in presentation available, but we might see a pop after the conference just based on enthusiasm the presentation *might* generate if Ridenour has the goods and presents well.
HardToLove
"... reviewing the Company’s operating results for the quarter and fiscal year ended March 31, 2011".
"To participate in the call dial 1-866-966-5335 approximately 10 minutes before the conference is scheduled to begin and provide confirmation code “UQM” to access the call. International callers should dial 1-212-999-6659"
Replay available from ~2 hours after the CC for 7 days by dial-in.
www.businesswire.com/n...
HardToLove
Needs to go a lot further to get back what it gave up while it was driven down over the last 2 weeks though.
HardToLove
"Stop sign? What stop sign?"
Let's hope this is a trend.
HardToLove
FY year loss ($0.06) vs expected ($0.07).
Beat & beat!
PR: www.businesswire.com/n...
CC 16:30 6/2: 1-866-966-5335 confirmation code UQM 10 minutes before.
A recording will be available for 48 hours beginning at 6:30 p.m. Eastern Time today. To access the playback call 1-888-203-1112 and give replay code 4693438. International callers should dial 1-647-436-0148.
HardToLove
classic.cnbc.com/id/43...
HardToLove
www.russell.com/indexe...
The current list of considerations for add and deletes can be cound here.
www.russell.com/Indexe...
HardToLove
6/24/2011 After market.
www.russell.com/indexe...
HardToLove
seekingalpha.com/insta...
Missed earnings by a penny, but big improvement from prior reports.
Conference call @ 16:30, dial-in only, web cast availble later.
www.businesswire.com/n...
1-800-867-0938 approximately 10 minutes before the conference is scheduled to begin and provide conference ID code “4462602” to access the call. International callers should dial 1-480-293-0647.
HardToLove
I found this new product-branding category to be most interesting in that it suggests that the trials with SAAB, AUDI and others has gone well and the production-level QC consistency is either already confirmed or near beiing so.
"PowerPhase Pro electric propulsion systems are production-validated and ready to drive your high-volume electric vehicles".
www.businesswire.com/n...
HardToLove
www.businesswire.com/n...
HardToLove
I sure hope they team up with (CPST) too.
www.businesswire.com/n...
HardToLove
(NVAX) recently presented at a Wedbush conference and after a few days delay saw a pop of 75.6% from the low of $1.19 on 8/23 to a high of $2.09 on 8/31.
Will the same happen with UQM? No way to tell, of course.
www.businesswire.com/n...
HardToLove
"... September 13, 2011 at 11:40 a.m. Eastern time".
JP says this is one of the higher profile conferences.
www.businesswire.com/n...
HardToLove
"... 1-800-762-8908 approximately 10 minutes before the conference is scheduled to begin and provide conference ID code “4483010” to access the call. International callers should dial 1-480-629-9868"
http://bit.ly/tufHBn
HardToLove
==============
* UQM begins high-volume manufacturing of its PowerPhase Pro® 100 electric propulsion system
* UQM’s fully validated production line has a capacity of 40,000 units on two shifts
* High volume production will improve UQM revenue, future growth prospects and opportunities in the electric propulsion sector
==============
http://bit.ly/un5kJy
HardToLove
Analysts expecte loss of $0.03, actual $0.04.
"Operations for the second quarter resulted in a net loss of $1,586,185 or $0.04 per common share on total revenue of $2,334,223 versus a net loss of $377,793 or $0.01 per common share on total revenue of $2,027,558 for the second quarter last fiscal year. Net loss for the second quarter last year includes an expense reduction for the recovery of costs from earlier periods under our DOE grant of $2,008,981.".
“Gross profit margins for the quarter and six month period ended September 30, 2011 improved to 43.7 percent and 44.1 percent, respectively, compared to 11.2 percent and 26.0 percent for the same periods last fiscal year due to improved raw material costs and overhead absorption and changes in product mix”.
http://bit.ly/tsdCnQ
HardToLove
HardToLove
20+ years senior executive sales experience in managing and growing sales into the automotive and commercial truck marketplace.
http://bit.ly/sDnYmo
HardToLove
Highlights, IMO:
- New staff hired and trained, ready for lean-manufacturing.
- Pre-production validation process, including supplier chain, complete.
- CODA first production vehicles to be available for sale in CA before the end of CY 2011.
- CODA letter of intent with Great Wall, an independent auto manufacturer in China giving access to the Chinese market as well as Europe; CODA will supply the propulsion and battery systems for new vehicle platforms being developed by Great Wall and UQM will work very hard to be the supplier of choice for the motors and controllers powering these new vehicle platforms.
- Electric Vehicles International (EVI) received order from UPS for 100 all-electric delivery trucks powered by UQM® electric propulsion systems.
- 20 Audi A1 e-trons will be under test in Munich with UQM propulsion systems in them.
- Power Phase HD 220 product - begun testing first concept motor and controller and expect to start DV builds in Q1 CY2012.
- In discussions with several potential Chinese partners, looking at several alternatives to provide potential of rapid sales growth while protecting IP.
2 Page PDF: http://bit.ly/sKbbfD
HardToLove
This adds to order previously contracted and bodes well, IMO. Details worth reading, although not earth-shattering news.
http://bit.ly/yphT3f
HardToLove
And a 1994 Yamaha 750 M/C that would be even more fun with their motorcycle set up. But I might not survive that experience! =>8-O
HardToLove
I know they probably have some engineers on staff that would love to do something too.
Just come with a good justification, written plan, mileposts, .... Who knows? They might go for it.
HardToLove
"UQM has begun shipments of its automotive qualified PowerPhase Pro® 100 electric propulsion system to CODA Automotive, improving revenue and future growth prospects".
"... Eric R. Ridenour, will present at the 14th Annual Needham Growth Conference at the New York Palace Hotel in New York City on January 12, 2012 at 9:20 a.m. EST".
We'll have to grub around and see if there's a webcast or archive of the presentation - nothing about it in the PR.
http://bit.ly/zzSHab
HardToLove
January 13, 2012. Nothing worth reading.
http://bit.ly/zQ0GuB
HardToLove
"... be reviewing the Company’s operating results for the quarter and nine months ended December 31, 2011".
" ... dial 1-877-941-8631 approximately 10 minutes before the conference is scheduled to begin and provide conference ID code “4509986” to access the call. International callers should dial 1-480-629-9644".
http://bit.ly/zBX2fm
HardToLove
"... working since 2007 with the design team at UQM to develop a capacitor solution for its PowerPhase Pro® electric propulsion system.
UQM's PowerPhase Pro® electric propulsion system delivers 100 kilowatts (134 horsepower) of peak power, 300 newton meters (221 pound feet) of peak torque and a peak system efficiency of 94%, all in a small 280 millimeter (11 inch) diameter by 252 millimeter (10 inch) long package. UQM recently began volume production of this system for the CODA Automotive's all-electric sedan.".
More details: http://mwne.ws/zGr3bo
HardToLove
Looks like the SAAB bankruptcy is responsible for a good portion of the drop in operating results, along with costs for acquiring the new V.P. of sales.
http://bit.ly/x9IRdh
Replay off available for 48 hours.
HardToLove
"Goldfish 23 All-Electric eFUSION Boat Powered By UQM® Propulsion System Wins the 2012 Boat of the Year Innovation Award at the Dusseldorf Boat Show "
"... powered by a UQM PowerPhase® Select 145 electric propulsion system ..."
"UQM PowerPhase Pro 135 systems are planned for higher volume installation in additional Goldfish Boat products"
http://bit.ly/AFpgce
HardToLove
Oh! Solar panels on the flat surfaces or solar concentrators into a heat (steam?) generator!
HardToLove
http://bit.ly/z6GeRG
Of course the ultimate green backup system is a sail ;)
But it's a great weight loss regimen on a shifting-winds day.
Kept me really busy the few times I tried it.
HardToLove
I'd like to see something too - that would reduce the degree of dependence on CODA, which is a *very* large chunk of the UQM risk ATM.
HardToLove
http://bit.ly/wnZ3zQ
"... all-electric EV Commodore proof-of-concept vehicles"
"... could yield higher volume orders"
"Leading automotive suppliers in Australia are working collaboratively to demonstrate technical viability and attractiveness of electric vehicles to customers"
"... led by EV Engineering, a collaborative venture between leading Australian automotive suppliers: ..."
HardToLove
And why are they building "LARGE comfortable" cars?
Didn't they get the memo?
Isn't Australia sitting on tons of (offshore?) natural gas? Guess they're gonna export it all to Japan and China. Shades of the US in 10 years? Been trying to figure out where I stand on US Nat Gas ... should we move much of our "Big Rig" transportation and more electrical generation to it only to have the producers start exporting it and driving the price up to nearer old levels?
Where does national responsibility and free trade end? Just how far out can you lock in a future price?
However, with only one liquifaction plant (Alaska) in the U.S., can't export that much. Most of that goes to Japan.
Cheniere Energy(?) has converted Sabine Pass plant, which used to be import only, to be able to export, but they can't liquefy it. That's a multi-billion and multi-year effort, for a new plant. I don't have the vaguest on a *conversion* cost or time-frame.
So it seems we're good for a while yet.
Heavy trucks are being converted and companies like CLNE are putting up stations. Pilot is adding NG fueling to about 100 of their stations right now.
The good thing is it's all private investment, not tax-payer dollars.
As to the general point, all energy costs go up and down and we can't change that. But we can utilize what is cheaper and local and even if the price does rise, it's dollars spent and circulated (with appropriate multiplier effects) *here*.
Australia has a lot of NG and is also working on large CSG (coal seam gas). I think their best bet is an HEV which can have an on-board small NG-powered generator for the batteries for longer trips.
Either pure EV or HEV would likely use the series electric drive (most likely - that less expensive than a parallel drive) and could provide a very nice compromise.
MHO,
HardToLove
Worth a read.
A review of the car:
http://bit.ly/wLYyiB
A consideration of it being really a Chinese car, with some potential hurdles related to that, in spite of a small U.S. assembly plant and U.S. drivetrain (UQM).
http://bit.ly/xhcG0y
Hat tip to WTBlanchard for his posting here!
http://seekingalpha.co...
HardToLove
If they are successful, I think the revenues would come to allow a more robust styling effort.
I think they have an excellent chance of success because they have picked the best place, IMO, for introduction due to population density, sentiment, state government and business support for green initiatives, etc.
If the EV is going to catch on, this seems like the ideal scenario. And it doesn't rally matter if it spreads to all areas of the nation or not. Just getting good acceptance in similar major metropolitan areas would provide both the environmental benefits and be a success *if* the companies manage to *that* scenario, rather than a "conquer the world" scenario.
Along the lines of different technologies for different applications that JP mentions for the batteries, I think vehicles could be viewed similarly.
MHO,
HardToLove
http://bit.ly/Ajbzv5
HardToLove
"$45.1 million ARRA Grant’s period of performance extended from 3 years to 5 years"
And a reminder from the article: "In addition to the ARRA Grant, the Company also has a $4 million program for the development of non-rare-earth magnet electric motors for use in electric and hybrid electric vehicles, with $3 million of the program funding provided by the DOE".
http://bit.ly/IKKd11
Well, with the DOE record of funding companies that ultimately fail, let's hope the on-going grants don't doom UQM!
Regardless, the funding certainly helps UQM continue to pursue it's strategy with an iota less worry for now.
HardToLove
http://bit.ly/HPto5u
It'll be interesting, since both companies have a lot of expertise in this area, to see who comes out ahead and what they come out with.
With copper prices being relatively stable within a fairly narrow price spread, I hope they look at the copper-rotor design since it matches REE-magnet performance in a wider range than does the alternative.
Induction motors can be very efficient when the aluminum rotor is replaced.
HardToLove
"The PowerPhase HD 220 will be introduced at EVS 26 in Los Angeles"
"... ideal for the commercial heavy-duty trucks and bus markets".
http://bit.ly/IdHgWY
HardToLove
"... over 10 years in the development of electric powertrains and vehicle electrification".
"... experience with electric propulsion systems and hybrid drives".
http://bit.ly/J6tjbT
HardToLove
"UQM Technologies Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2012 Operating Results"
"Revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2012 grew 61 percent to $3.8 million compared to $2.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2011, due primarily to shipments to CODA. Net loss for the fourth quarter was $1.5 million or $0.04 per common share versus a net loss of $0.2 million or $0.01 per common share for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011 due primarily to expanded production engineering activities".
"For the fiscal year ended March 31, 2012, total revenue increased 12 percent to $10.1 million compared to $9.0 million in fiscal 2011. Gross profit contribution dollars increased year-over-year by 25% to $3.0 million due to increased margins and higher revenue. Net operating loss for fiscal 2012 was $4,928,520 or $0.14 per common share versus a net loss of $1,992,358 or $0.06 per common share for fiscal 2011. Net loss increased primarily due to the expansion of our production engineering group who are working on new products and business development activities to add new customers. The net loss in fiscal 2011 included the benefit of DOE reimbursements from prior periods of approximately $1.5 million and a recovery from a customer bankruptcy of $0.3 million".
Comments about being excited as CODA shipments began and the new HD motors have been qualified.
Better excitement may be in the release in the next comment.
http://bit.ly/KgZoeq
HardToLove
However, they do have other efforts, most notably the recent announcement of testing by FedEx in Colorado. They also supply Proterra and have efforts underway with a couple European auto manufacturers.
But it's all very early and speculative in their attempt to move to volume manufacturing. We shouldn't overlook the risk, in spite of a product line that includes all sizes of motors from windows to wipers to motors for truck propulsion.
I think some of the risk comes from the fact that in spite of being a supplier to Parket Hannefin for some components, they are also a potential competitor to them in some of these motors.
For all those reasons, I've kept my positions very small so far.
HardToLove
HardToLove
"UQM Technologies PowerPhase HD® Electric Drive Systems Selected to Power Boulder EV Delivery Vans for FedEx Express "
"We just introduced the PowerPhase HD 220 electric drive system last month at EVS26 and have been selected to power the Boulder EV delivery vans as part of the FedEx Express all-electric fleet of vehicles".
http://bit.ly/KgZKSi
HardToLove
Might still be a good trade at $.98 if one could snag it in the morning. I see a potential short term pop to $1.20's, maybe a little better...
(Sorry if this hurts longs' feelings, I am not a shorter of this stock, just a bottom feeder.)
I appreciate your taking the time. I was thinking of adding a couple small trading blocks because this should give a typical three day move and I can lower my cost basis and "compound" my cash effectiveness.
HardToLove
There are also company-specific actions, increasing certain expenses such as R & D in anticipation of future market products, that will have some some revenue & P & L effects near-term.
Taking a quick look at a 1-year chart, pps is trapped in a descending channel and the short-term pattern suggests a near-term break down may be in the offing that will keep pps in this channel. The oscillators I track to not contradict this assessment yet.
MHO,
HardToLove
"UQM Technologies PowerPhase Systems Take on Bus Routes in Tokyo, Powering New Hino Electric Buses"
Since UQM supplies Proterra buses as well, this seems a logical follow-on.
http://bit.ly/N9rIEO
HardToLove
"The KleenSpeed® World KAR is an all-electric concept vehicle that will begin real world testing in July 2012"
"... a concept electric vehicle that was presented at the Stanford University 2012 Vehicle Concept Showcase event on June 12, 2012. The event highlights emerging electric vehicle transportation companies ..."
http://bit.ly/OslfX6
HardToLove
Nothing really new, other than we know the annual; meeting is coming 8/8.
But I had seen something that suggested UQM lost CODA - forget where I saw that. But the EOY makes no mention of it and I've not seen any news on it.
As long as I was googling, since UQM depends on CODA a lot right now, I thought I see if there was any news. Thought I'd put some stuff here that we can compare against 6 months or a year from now.
In February, they announced that sales would be through dealers, not "experience centers".
http://aol.it/NPWbo9
In March, got an EPA best range in class call. This one has a few factoids worth reading I guess.
http://bit.ly/O3E8yt
The deal with Great Wall (who sold 500K worldwide last year), inked in April had something we need to bear in mind:
==========
He said Coda isn’t disclosing sales volume for the sedan — “It’s a small number” — because the California-only launch strategy is aimed at perfecting the company’s sales and service system rather than at building volume.
==========
Anyway, UQM is vying to be the power train supplier in this deal, so it's worth watching. Target for first production is 2014, according to the PR.
http://bit.ly/NPWbob
Added a couple of SoCal dealers in March '12.
http://bit.ly/O3E8yv
3 sold to retail buyers and a fleet sale. Got to start the ball rolling somehow. I won't comment on the nature of the fleet buyer - it's sort of natural they would be in the space they are.
First was a surprise, "2012 Coda Automotive Electric Sedan Gets Price Cut" by $6,755 to $38,145 (125 mile version).
http://bit.ly/NPW8IY
The only interesting thing, to me, from the following link was:
==========
The company has estimated that it will sell about 14,000 Sedans during its first full year of production and will be making 50,000 vehicles a year by 2015, according to Wards Auto, Coda sells a version of its Sedan with a single-charge range of up to 150 miles for $39,900, as well as a $37,250 version with a 125-mile single-charge range
==========
http://aol.it/O3E8OL
It has a button if you want to read the whole press release.
Then, "Coda Automotive makes first fleet sale of electric car for AEP Ohio's smart grid testing"
"... purchased the Coda all-electric car after testing a preproduction vehicle in 2011".
And a reminder ...
"In November 2010, Coda announced deals with both Hertz and Enterprise to provide electric cars for both companies to place in their respective rental fleets".
http://bit.ly/NPW8IZ
Not finding anything else about it yet.
In April they added to customer support convenience by selecting "Mr. Electric" as the supplier for charging station installation. They take care of estimates, permitting, planning and installation.
http://bit.ly/O3E8OP
HardToLove
And if Buick's scheme of using motors for acceleration assist catches on, UQM has a range of motors suitable for that too.
I think the dark horse in this is Wrightspeed. They've got a proprietary two-speed electric transmission that is *very* efficient, they are addressing what I believe is *the* most suitable market (essentially fixed-route medium-duty trucks and vans) and they can do both (P)EV and HEV setups (currently via CPST and they've got cool videos of their early roadster that waxes the big-name high-performance sport cars).
MHO,
HardToLove
I don't know much about Wrightspeed, so I have some research to do. Much I like Capstone I still think they have a lot of engineering to do before becoming the success small turbines hold promise of. I do hope they can do it while improving an existing commercial line instead of having to start from perfection any work on improving from there. Just me.
"... relegated to regional terminal service out of rail intermodal depots".
Yes! The only reason the OTR trucking got so overblown in the first place was, IMO, the growing "bubble" in everybody and his brother thinking JIT was the panacea to all problems. That relegated RRs to "too slow".
Now that the economy is in the process of "normalizing" from the excessive credit bubble expansion, all of a sudden money again matters and JIT is revealed to be appropriate in some places and not others.
As a move towards more balanced transportation needs is achieved, I really believe RRs will gain a *lot* of market share, even beyond what it has already recaptured.
I've been eying (NSC) for a good entry - the re-entry I expect into recessionary territory later this year should hammer the stock price and make it very attractive.
The only negative is coal - but I think that will be more than offset by inter-modal activities increases and their corridor expansion.
MHO,
HardToLove
Yes it looks as if more REE sources are going to come online to meet demand, not surprisingly.
But we can't rule out China manipulations to work towards whatever their objectives are. Tightening quotas again, maintaining a big difference between China-internal prices and FOB prices might have effects we can't predict. Further, it has been suggested that their internal supplies of certain REE materials will be exhausted in 10 years or so. That should place big demand on external supplies, and so affect prices, as they try to satisfy their internal high-tech needs.
Regardless, with UQM's recent patent application that maintains near REE-magnet performance without those magnets, they should be able to handle any scenario quite well.
HardToLove
Don't count coal out. In fact, if you have some money to put into a 3-5 years time frame I'd say this is a good time to invest in coal. The world needs it, natgas in LNG form is not going to get that much cheaper and can't possibly generate the electricity needed. It's an emerging economy play. My favorites in this are Norfolk Southern (NSC) and Consol Energy (mines & port terminal) for the East Coast (throw in Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) for shear size) for Africa & EU and Canadian National (http://bit.ly/MavPyu) and Peabody (http://bit.ly/N0RHhU) for Asia.
HardToLove
I know nothing about Burlington Northern's traffic composition, but seems to me they would have some potential play on coal exports to Asia out of the Powder River Basin coal fields of Montana-Wyoming.
That may keep coal demand high as the reset of the world continues to progress to greater electrification and higher living standards.
That would suggest that RR transporting coal here, to ports for export at least, could remain strong for a very long time. This may become even more likely if increased usage pushes NG price up substantially to nearer BTU-equivalent pricing. This can be not only from local use, but the majors all want to start exporting NG because out-of-country prices are so much higher than here - $10-$11 per million BTU or something like that. If they don't get blocked, that will put coal and NG closer to parity again here.
HardToLove
To blame the EPA for the shut down of coal fired plants is just plain wrong and is a "false flag" to extend profit from the cheapest capital investment. No, what ails the coal generation industry is age & NatGas. Look at the following list and find the year that so many plants were scheduled for shutdown & wonder why this year is the one the dirtiest operators are squealing the loudest about. As with SO2, 10% of generation is responsible for nearly 33% of violations in 2008 (approx 40% in 2011) and to this day somewhere in the neighborhood of 2/3 of coal fired plants have no remediation equipment installed. Thank the legacy effect from cap & trade and good political clout which is loosing its grip because of NatGas.
http://bit.ly/PxhBwM
and a little primer on mercury in coal
http://bit.ly/L0Lga7
I could go into great detail because this, electric generation, is one of my favorite investment topics, but it is not the topic of this forum. I'll let you rattle around the site I noted above as a fairly good starting point. Much as people love hating the EPA ... I'm on their side ... both for cleaner air and expanding the USA industrial technology base ... and the jobs we are best suited in the world to create.
Please avoid phrases designed to attack, such as "Good to see your reading comprehension hasn't improved".
Remember that even misinformed or ill-informed statements often lead to learning for all because of the responses they invoke.
I do appreciate that you limited your response though. Thank you.
HardToLove
Re- NatGas, Energy Information Administration suggests in April Natgas-fired power generation matched that of coal in U.S. for the first time.
http://bit.ly/L0XBes
Not sure where you got the idea that I'm in anyway against MATS or the EPA.
In deference to our host HT who has always managed to engage with me without personal attacks I'll not respond to yours.
We move platform freight which is freight that doesn't go in a box. Furthermore, we are specialized in that we can put items taller than what can go on a standard flatbed but not too specialized - we pull a step deck that can accommodate a 40' high cube container (non-standard). I also move freight that is wider than 102". We are also a team and can do the JIT piece. However, my team mate is looking to spend time with her mom so it will be oversize in daylight hours.
Basically my market is everything that does not make sense for rail or terminal to terminal operations so we are in total agreement. However, this is not a small market so do not discount it too much.
I am looking for an entry point for UQM and NSC...
Anyway, it's offered a lot of "head fakes" while in this downtrend that might lead one to think it was going to run up.
Keeping that in mind, it should see substantial resistance at $1.10 (demonstrated support or resistance a total of four times recently beginning 4/23) and will bump into the falling 50-day before that (currently $1.04 and falling ~0.009/day). Then there's the old psychological "round numbers" that might delay or reverse things at $1.
I would wait to see what it does at $1.10 and what the TA indicators (especially volume) suggest will happen next.
Good scenario # 1 is a good move up is suggested and you've missed a few pennies of potential upside. With next demonstrated price points in the $1.30 area, a possible ~18% gain on a trade could be made if it runs up and you are in around $1.10. This assumes that in the $1.30-$1.35 area a risk of reversal is seen and you decide to take profit and reenter when it starts to run up again after another down leg (in which case you are "swing trading").
If it runs on by $1.3x, on strength, it could do $1.45 before hiitting points of resistance based on a 1-year chart.
My initial most likely scenario ATM is a touch of $1.10 and then a typical retrace to ~$0.90, a reversion to the mean. From there it's, again, a toss-up as to which way it might want to go.
Of course, any catalyst would affect my assumptions and lack of them would leave me adjusting things as the TA stuff progresses.
Right now, the TA oscillators all say "bullish" but they are only to be viewed cautiously on these small-cap, volatile and speculative (enough negative adjectives? :-) stocks.
This is one of those that, for long-term investors, I would always advocate heavy consideration of pain tolerance and, depending on that, maybe looking to enter when things suggest the bottom has been seen (might be already - $0.70 6/28-29) and there's a decent chance that it will be moving to some sustainable higher "fair value".
MHO,
HardToLove
Thanks to Iindelco for being so thoughtful here, http://seekingalpha.co...
And here's the article, "Coda aims high" from (avoiding SA's scrogging) usa dot chinadaily dot com dot cn
http://bit.ly/OSNxcn
Of note is that one of CODA's divisions, Coda EV Propulsion Systems, will apparently supply the powertrain. "...The new EV will feature Coda's propulsion and battery technologies ...".
This must be the piece (UQM) is hoping to participate in. Since CODA will already have familiarity and various agreements in place with UQM, I think there's a reasonable chance the UQM inks the deal. This possibility seems enhanced by Phil Murtaugh's (the CEO) links with China, described in the article. There's experienced "boots on the ground".
My biggest concern would be if there's insistence that IP and/or manufacturing know-how be transferred to China, possibly via a JV manufacturing arrangement, of the UQM product.
I would prefer to see assemblies just shipped from here.
MHO,
HardToLove
http://bit.ly/NgUVuY
Some interesting links inside the article.
The article's discussion of battery packs left some questions though. Li-ion packs underneath and outside the passenger compartment did not strike me as feasible from a safety standpoint.
I see another replay, I'll just add a couple thoughts there.
My summary thoughts is there's a lot to recommend it and some things against it.
HardToLove
The article raises the basic issue and acknowledges that suspension tuning will be needed. For very heavy vehicles, the added unsprung weight s/n/b an issue for ride quality and handling, so there's lots of room for strengthening components *if* that is indeed needed, I think. As with anything, the trades-offs may justify the cost in weight, handling and $. The gains for heavy vehicles look to be substantial.
Also, some of the stuff may be ICs - which are *relatively* immune to the g-forces that might be expected and (to a large degree) the "shocks".
Being a guy that likes to drive well-handling vehicles, I am most concerned with "unsprung weight". Even if strengthening of components is not needed, the added mass, especially at the end of the momentum arm, would be a big negative for me since it makes it more difficult for the suspension to maintain contact patch as effectively under extremes.
I think an overlooked (maybe?) negative is the anticipated damage to those components being placed, effectively, outboard of the vehicle. During any mishap, those things closest to the outside suffer first and most, as a rule, lending some credence to your "strengthening needed" issue. But that would really only be an insurance-cost issue ISTM. Even if one of the wheels were damaged to the point of inoperability, the remaining wheel(s) could still move the vehicle.
MHO,
HardToLove
I also think you are discounting the hardening and extra cost that will be needed for a hub motor to survive for years with nothing but a tire between it and the road. I do think there are some applications where a hub motor makes good sense, but probably not passenger vehicles.
As to torque loss, that's somewhat made up for by torque x #_of_wheels. Remove losses from differentials, drive shafts, weight, ... and it might come near being a wash for some (many?) applications. Of course, if they are really talking *heavy* vehicles, I think you have a strong argument - unless the number of wheel motors gets larger, e.g. greater than 4(?), they wouldn't be able to get as much torque.
Ignoring my concerns about unsprung weight, damage, etc., ISTM they would be more appropriate for passenger vehicles, which need less torque than heavy stuff. Also recall that they *might* be able to have a relatively flat torque curve a la UQM, if patents don't prevent that.
Good thoughts all around - it'll be interesting to see if they make any headway and, if so, in what areas. It would be good, if they do make progress, to see them license some of patent-protected stuff from UQM, like the electronic phase control that gives a broad torque curve.
That might give us another revenue stream w/o any capital costs or COGS.
HardToLove
Fourth consecutive year, used PowerPhasse Select 145 motor and controller, and ...
"The car beat its previous record by more than six seconds, for a new EV record lap time of 1 minute, 32.046 seconds on Mazda Raceway Laguna Seca. In addition to setting a new lap time record, the KleenSpeed EV-X11 took first place in the Open Prototype class, beating a Tesla Model S Prototype and other vehicles. It also had the fastest lap time of all competitors in all classes".
http://bit.ly/NbC7Ro
HardToLove
"UK-developed wheel motor system wins $84m of funding to enter production in China "
Well, it won't take long for the Chinese to start competing with them.
http://bit.ly/OeR5ky
HardToLove
http://bit.ly/Nyoc2L
If the Wrightspeed unit is lighter, that's always a plus in aircraft. On a second view though, that gearbox looks like it couldn't weigh much at all.
It looks like the output shaft goes straight through to the backside too. I assume that's to drive pumps and whatnot for hydraulics?
HardToLove
http://bit.ly/Nv5z1b
Chip also used UQM in his electric motorcycle:
http://bit.ly/LW7iBm
http://bit.ly/Nv5z1j
I don't know. It should have a very light touch but I couldn't think what else they might do with that extra shaft.
As to the MC, I've caught all the press releases when a UQM-powered vehicle sets another record and wins a race, etc.
I think the Wrightspeed stuff may be how I stumbled on UQM, via some Capstone Turbine link probably.
HardToLove
http://bit.ly/Pqazrq
In that terrain, it would be unusual for even a novice pilot to not successfully glide in and land. With weight and balance within design limits and the glide ratio known in advance from the design stage, all the pilot has to do is pick their touchdown point and maintain max glide range speed (part of the pilot's manual for the craft) and adjust it to account for distance to touch down, etc. That's the hard part - judging how much speed to bleed off without losing so much that you land short.
'Course, there it wouldn't make much difference - even on the sand would be a good landing. As they say, "any landing you walk away from is a good one".
HardToLove
"... dial 1-877-941-8631 approximately 10 minutes before the conference is scheduled to begin and provide conference ID code “4556393” to access the call. International callers should dial 1-480-629-9867".
http://bit.ly/MUqdXU
HardToLove
Nice PR, using a PowerPhase Select® 125 electric motor and controller. Part of a fleet of 60 vehicles. It's equipped with a range extender.
http://bit.ly/M8u7f8
HardToLove
Their bullet points:
Total revenue increased 82% year-over-year to $2.4 million
Gross profit increased 58% year-over-year to $0.9 million
Strong growth in product revenue was driven by deliveries to an automotive OEM and others.
ETrade shows expected earnings of ($0.03). Reported was ($0.04), "... increase in net loss for the first quarter was due primarily to higher recruiting, relocation and payroll costs related to recent additions to the senior management team and increased levels of marketing and travel expenditures related to our business development strategy for the Chinese market".
http://bit.ly/OA6bU9
HardToLove
That caused all of the inventory they had bought for CODA to be on the books for the full quarter. Combined with the increased SG&A from efforts in China (Great Wall & CODA), expense related to adding executive talent, ... I think that caused their miss on earnings.
If CODA performs the way Eric indicated they would, based on sit-downs he had with CODA's head, the inventory should get eaten in the next few quarters I guess and turn into revenues and profit.
SAAB is being resurrected and UQM is talking with their new management.
AUDI's phase 2 build is completed.
Much more, but I can't remember it all now.
They sounded positive though. No need to raise cash is foreseen at this time.
As soon as the results came out, pps dropped to $0.80. If it does similar over the next couple days, I think I'll add a couple small lots. My position is so small right now that if it rocketed I wouldn't care. I just want to wait until it either bottoms in the downward channel or breaks above it though.
Might be tough with "all things green" being out of favor in the investment community ATM.
I think the valley exit is easy *if* one of the big delivery outfits buy in. If they don't, it's likely a long slog depending on auto (and we *know* how fast that goes, don't we!) and/or smaller outfits like Wrightspeed.
Like you, I'm hopeful that CFP and maybe even a small profit in a year will materialize. But there was one point about that in the CC - margins get smaller in large-scale production as compared to the various smaller efforts they have been doing.
The good part, to me, was I didn't hear anything that sounded like a show-stopper and there was a brief description of the CODA dealers clamoring for product. If true, we may be surprised how fast cash and profitability improve.
MHO,
HardToLove
"UQM PowerPhase Pro® 100 Powering Zero Emission Taxicabs During London 2012 Summer Olympics "
Some bullet points, the last of which seems to deliver a possibility.
- Iconic London taxicabs include a fleet of zero-emission vehicles used to transport Olympic athletes and dignitaries
- The vehicle has a range of 250 miles and refuels in five minutes
Consortium of companies developed proposal to create zero-emission taxicab
- Full production of the vehicle is possible with successful test fleet results
Later in the article ...
"... A consortium of companies – Intelligent Energy, Lotus Engineering, TRW Conekt and London Taxi International – put forward a proposal to develop hydrogen fuel cell taxicabs and approached the British Government for research support and funding.
The UQM PowerPhase Pro 100 electric motor provides power to the rear wheels of the vehicle. A fuel cell system designed by Intelligent Energy works in conjunction with a high voltage battery pack and a UQM DC-to-DC converter to provide power for the vehicle. According to Intelligent Energy, the company plans to put the vehicles into full production after a successful test program in 2012".
http://bit.ly/Nz5QPm
HardToLove
- EV Engineering sets an unofficial world distance record for an all-electric car of 1,172 miles within a 24 hour period
- Australian-based EV Engineering uses the UQM PowerPhase Select® electric propulsion system to power its fleet of all-electric EV Commodore passenger cars
"The EV Engineering project converted a fleet of locally manufactured Holden Commodore passenger cars to proof-of-concept electric vehicles to demonstrate the technical viability and attractiveness to customers of a full-size electric car. If successful, technologies used in the project could be considered for possible future mass production".
"... swap battery packs via stations created by infrastructure provider Better Place. The team swapped battery packs after completing each loop during this long-distance run".
http://bit.ly/NArB2f
HardToLove
EDIT: Calculated over the 24 hours they averaged 48.8 MPH. Not bad with a battery swap at the end of each loop.
"Progressive Concept Heavy-Duty Hybrid Truck Powered by Remy Motor"
They claim "... will use Remy's HVH410 electric traction motor and generator, a customizable assembly that is proven to have the highest efficiency and most power density available". But no specs are given there.
http://bit.ly/PMFU5A
Remy's site is here.
http://www.remyinc.com
I took a quick peek there but found no specifications for their motors. Maybe need more time.
HardToLove
(and I have no idea when this was announced)
Remy Receives Grant for Electric Motors
"Remy International, Inc. has been nominated to receive a $60.2 million grant under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act - Electric Drive Vehicle Battery and Component Manufacturing Initiative. This is a matching funds grant to support U.S. manufacturing of components used to produce hybrid electric and electric vehicles. It will support Remys efforts to build the next generation of lower cost, higher performance electric motors and controls."
http://bit.ly/NV8JAy
UQM has the DOE grant for development of non-REE magnet motors in hand as well. There could well be some cross-licensing between these companies that benefit them both.
HardToLove
"SAKOR Technologies, Inc. Delivers Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Test System to UQM Technologies"
http://bit.ly/PAdm3a
That's got to provide a boost to initial potential customer discussions.
I'm thinking part of this is likely funded with some of the DOE funds too, but I'm not sure.
HardToLove
HardToLove
- The all-new PowerPhase HD® 220, the most powerful electric motor launched by the company, was developed specifically to meet the needs of the commercial vehicle market
- The HTUF conference and expo is focused on the commercialization of hybrid, electric and advanced technologies for the medium- and heavy-duty vehicle industries
http://bit.ly/TSikYF
UQM been having a nice run lately. I think that testing unit PR had a bunch to do with it.
HardToLove
Thanks to WTBlanchard.
"Can Coda's electric car survive?"
http://bit.ly/SUkn0U
A little more upbeat is "CODA: We Have 1,000 Reservations, And We Are Going To Take 15% Of The EV Market", although when you look at the numbers it's not *that* upbeat in nature.
http://bit.ly/StLJ7E
HardToLove
We might see better results in China (Great Wall), which CODA is working with, since their centrally-planned and funded mandates can have greater effect than free-market forces in a nation used to cheap energy and maximum personal flexibility.
If CODA does have the expertise mentioned and other manufacturers want to take advantage, CODA might do well, but sell few cars, hurting (UQM)'s prospects in the automotive sector.
There is a *possibility* that others, such as Wrightspeed, Audi, ... that are using UQM product might eventually succeed, but that sure is an iffy proposition with the world economies going through reducing growth ATM.
MHO,
HardToLove
Wtblanchard posted a link in the Axion concentrator that had some good stuff buried in it. Thanks to him for that.
Wrightspeed uses both (UQM) motors and (CPST) micro-turbines.
"Wrightspeed Brings a CNG Plug-In to HTUF 2012"
No meat in it, but here's the short announcement.
http://bit.ly/S5iasn
(UQM) aslo gets a mention in "UQM’s PowerPhase HD 220 Said to be Most Powerful"
http://bit.ly/QmSBXI
HardToLove
"... signed a memorandum of understanding with a major Chinese company for the development and marketing of UQM electric propulsion systems for New Energy Vehicles (NEV) in China ..."
"... work collaboratively to introduce UQM products into the Chinese market for use in New Energy Vehicles. The China State Council published its New Energy Vehicles plan in July, 2012, setting a goal of 500,000 energy-efficient and clean vehicles on the road in China by 2015, and five million vehicles by 2020".
“With annual revenue of over $5 billion, our Chinese partner has a substantial footprint throughout China and is well-positioned to introduce our products to the country’s developing New Energy Vehicle market".
I wonder if this is "Great Wall", which they have mentioned in the past?
http://bit.ly/SZsfI4
HardToLove
Not quite sure how to parse this:
"... signed a memorandum of understanding with a major Chinese company for the development and marketing of UQM electric propulsion systems for New Energy Vehicles (NEV) in China ..."
"Development" is the word I'm unsure about ... if they're developing something better, what's the risk it becomes "all theirs?"
Not clear exactly what they're "developing" ... that is whether they're referring to the motor or to EVs in general or BOTH.
There's many levels in which development and marketing could occur that would pose no risk. Others would, I think, pose a high risk.
If the JV is limited to, say, energy management systems that made the U.S. built motors most efficient for the Chinese market use, I would see little risk. This could be encompassed in "systems". Ditto with assembly-only operations and, of course marketing which might be unique to the Chinese market.
If it includes, or even touches on, the proprietary motor management algorithms and/or the magnets and/or motors, I'd say the U.S. taxpayer financed another successful Chinese rip-off.
With all the publicity, I'd think UQM management has to be aware of those risks and are taking appropriate precautions.
My big concern ATM would be the price of REEs in China are much lower than ex-China right now (and will be so for a long time). If those lower prices lure the UQM management into manufacturing either the magnets or motors there, it's "Sayonara" from me after a while.
HardToLove
"PowerPhase Pro® 100 electric propulsion system is powering the new all-electric Mylne Bolt 18 yacht tender, which debuted in September at the 2012 Monaco Yacht Show."
"Mylne has been making distinctive yachts since 1896, and the Bolt 18 is the company’s first all-electric vessel."
"The boat is exceeding all of our expectations in terms of speed, acceleration, power-to-weight ratio, quietness and ride quality,” said David Gray, President and Owner of Mylne Yacht Design. “The UQM electric motor propels the Bolt 18 from 0-30 knots in just three seconds, raising the eyebrows of several groups at the Monaco Yacht Club.".
http://bit.ly/PnrixY
HardToLove
HardToLove
Interesting. I haven't held UQM for a couple of years now because I just did not see where growth needed to turn a profit might come from. Time for another look perhaps.
:-) Now that is what I call some "props".
HardToLove
"To participate in the call dial 1-888-561-1799 approximately 10 minutes before the conference is scheduled to begin and provide conference ID code “4570874” to access the call. International callers should dial 1-480-629-9678".
"... access to a recording will be available for 48 hours following the call. Dial 1-800-406-7325 and enter replay access code 4570874# to access the playback. International callers should dial +1-303-590-3030. Please allow one hour from the time of the conference call for initial setup before access".
http://bit.ly/OHNsd5
HardToLove
No transcript? (that I could find on the investor relations tab)
On the other hand, I did like this from the Investor Relations FAQ
16. Is it possible to tour the Company’s facilities?
Yes, it is possible to tour our facilities; however, the tour may be restricted to only certain areas of our facilities due to the confidential nature of our work for customers. In addition, visits are limited to personnel availability and scheduling considerations. If you would like to arrange a visit, please contact investor relations at
303-682-4900 x4918 or e-mail investor@uqm.com.
I'm with them on this if it costs much - they are still very early in getting to some commercial scale. And lots of risk in the current customer base.
MHO,
HardToLove
"UQM Technologies Reports Second Quarter Operating Results"
"Total revenue was $1.2 million, a decrease of 49% year-over-year versus $2.3 million for the second quarter of last year. Net loss for the second quarter was $2.6 million, or $0.07 per common share, versus a net loss of $1.6 million, or $0.04 per common share, for the comparable period last year.
Meanwhile, we took significant steps this quarter to further diversify our customer base and grow our worldwide presence, by entering emerging territories such as China. These business development activities are a critical investment in the future growth of the business.”
“Second quarter revenue was impacted by the slow pace of the CODA vehicle launch. We remain optimistic that CODA will resume its production ramp-up given its announced plans, including ..."
http://bit.ly/SzvjOT
HardToLove
Spartan Motors background, might be a good fit.
http://bit.ly/YsmWGv
HardToLove
However, looking more closely, it's paused just above a rising trend (currently ~0.80) and looks to be consolidating with almost all the oscillators in oversold - often a signal that it may reverse.
There's no rush on this as I think the long-term news stories will control the action forward. That's why my current positions a quite small - just enough to keep them on the radar.
Personally, I'm waiting to add when it bottoms, which it *may* be doing. But from there it can just as likely go sideways for a long time before deciding to break either up or down.
MHO,
HardToLove
They do need to make enough income to keep the doors open on their shiny new factory. My hope (bad investment thesis) is that marine, DOD & DOE will keep cashflow at or above break even. There is better than even chance that hybrid tractor trucking could be what becomes the mainstay business. We shall see.
I'm also hopeful that the taxi biz they tested with for the Olympics might pay off. Taxi's are almost always in urban settings, close to their depot, spend a lot of time stopping and starting, ... Seems like a very good potential application because there's no appreciable "range anxiety" in play.
If they have cab stands in use, convenient recharging for pure EV's might be available too. Then a PbC might top it off nicely - fast recharge and total energy content less concern! :-)
HardToLove
-UQM PowerPhase® controller and motor were used to power Nemesis vehicle to a new UK land speed record of 151 m.p.h.
"According to Ecotricity, the Nemesis can accelerate 0-100 m.p.h. in 8.5 seconds, and under road legal conditions, has a range of up to 150 miles. The UQM PowerPhase electric motor and controller are powered by green electricity produced by Ecotricity windmills, for delivery over the grid".
http://bit.ly/PRvjtT
HardToLove
- Patent-pending electric motor design provides competitive power-density and efficiency without using rare-earth magnets
- Work is funded through a $4 million cost-share award to UQM as part of a DOE Advanced Research and Development Grant
“The key to using non-rare-earth magnets in electric motors for vehicles is our patent-pending motor geometry, which in part defines the shape and magnetization direction of the permanent magnets,” said Jon Lutz, UQM Technologies’ Vice President of Engineering. “The completion of the electromagnetic design and analysis task is a significant step in the process of advancing motor and generator technology for electric and hybrid electric vehicles, providing an alternative to rare-earth magnets in permanent-magnet motor designs".
http://bit.ly/SJzViN
HardToLove
"... highly adaptable to existing vehicle platforms"
"UQM motors and controllers are central to the electric-drive powertrain which ..."
"... initial testing of the platform has been completed, and EDI is currently in contract discussions with multiple truck manufacturers and a bus manufacturer ..."
http://bit.ly/TDsiP0
HardToLove
The only real downside I see is the up-front cost being higher for the parallel hybrid solution vs. a pure serial solution. But over the long-haul I think the TCO would at least come even. Compared to an all-Li-ion BEV it might even come a winner.
MHO,
HardToLove
"Electric car company Coda cuts staff".
http://fxn.ws/XbVOZN
As we know, (UQM) had a heavy near-term dependence on CODA's success to have a chance of making relatively quick ramps in key metrics. With CODA's near-term success seemingly off the table, we are left settled into our small starter positions awaiting some of the longer-term, but likely more probable, successes in other areas as the path forward. With major manufacturers pushing out more HEVs over the next few years (Nissan recently announced 15 new models in planning) and public acceptance of such as the Prius suggesting many successes possible there, I think that UQM is still a good "sock drawer" stock. There's also activity in heavier commercial vehicle applications on the horizon.
But I'll tell ya' - patience is way over-rated. :-((
HardToLove
http://seekingalpha.co...
Thanks F77!
To save jumping around, here's the news release he linked.
http://bit.ly/13eR7Dx
HardToLove
One of the major European auto-makers that are testing could come through, but I think only hybrid applications will ever achieve any real volume and I don't recall any PR that those folks are doing hybrids.
HardToLove
http://bit.ly/10DaLue
HardToLove
http://edmu.in/VraZj3
Cheapest way to get a UQM system to date. Pull everything out of that crappy looking Chinese glider and put it all into a decent used ICE of your choice for a sweet conversion.
With the decline in CODA, should be an interesting CC when the Q & A happens.
http://bit.ly/YziZmN
HardToLove
"UQM Technologies Reports Fiscal Third Quarter Operating Results"
- Deliveries during Q3 of PowerPhase HD® electric propulsion systems to Electric Vehicles International for UPS delivery vehicles exceeded $700,000
- One time charge of $3.8 million or $0.10 per common share taken to reserve for accounts receivable due from CODA
- Q3 Net loss, excluding the charge, decreased to $0.02 per share versus $0.03 per share for Q3 last fiscal year
Some details in the PR.
http://bit.ly/XNd5aV
HardToLove
http://bit.ly/11nDCmB
HardToLove
"Total revenue for the quarter was down 29% year-over-year to $1.9 million"
- due principally to no shipments to CODA in the quarter versus the $1.5 million we shipped in the same quarter last year
- sales to our existing customers increased 52% versus last year
- [HTL: regarding CODA] "... However, the passing of another quarter without payments and the recent CODA announcement that they were furloughing employees has created substantial uncertainty for us. As a result, we made the decision to record a charge of $3.8 million during the quarter, which Don will detail later. In the event CODA is unable to secure funding, we may need to record additional charges in future periods, we believe that these would fall in the range of $1 million to $2 million".
"... new PowerPhase Pro system that we're shipping to CODA is rightsized for many passenger, medium-duty truck and marine applications. We've already sold some of the units out of the CODA inventory to other customers ... we can also utilize certain components from this inventory in our other products as well. These additional sales will allow us to monetize the inventory and improve our cash position over time".
"We're also taking further steps to proactively manage our cash position and lower our expenses in light of the lack of news from CODA. These actions include a staff reduction of approximately 20% announced today and other cost reduction initiatives to improve our operating efficiency. We've also reconfigured our high volume production line to allow it to build either the PowerPhase Pro used for CODA or the PowerPhase HD used for our commercial customers. This provides needed capacity for the growth of the HD without requiring an all-new line and will save us $2 million to $3 million in future CapEx".
"... We expect these actions to substantially reduce our cost base and lower our cash burn rate by as much as 1/3".
"... First, shipments to EVI hit their stride this quarter, adding nearly $0.75 million to our revenue. Their first units were used by UPS for internal testing and confirmation, and these units are being built into completed trucks by EVI and sent to UPS. Having successfully completed that phase, the trucks are now in field service, collecting valuable data. The early indications are very positive".
"Proterra recently announced an additional capital infusion of $23 million. We shipped units to Proterra in third quarter and will increase shipments in subsequent quarters. Proterra is currently in discussions with or has signed contracts with municipalities in California, Florida, Massachusetts, Texas and South Carolina for the potential sales of an additional 70 electric buses. We also shipped units to Boulder EV for their all electric delivery van in the third quarter and will ship additional units ongoing".
"ReGen Nautic displayed 5 different products with UQM systems in them at the Paris boat show".
[HTL] There's several paragraphs discussing their China efforts, including the activities of NEVS, the SAAB successor. They think that due to prior work with SAAB UQM offers the best path forward for NEVS.
From French's financials starting on page 3.
"Excluding CODA shipments from last year's revenue, total revenue increased 52% year-over-year. This increase was driven by an acceleration in propulsion system deliveries to Electric Vehicles International to $735,000 as deliveries by EVI of all electric delivery vehicles to UPS grew".
[HTL] discussing future possible charges and reserves related to CODA weakness: "We estimate the potential amount of these settlements, in the aggregate, to be in the range of $1 million to $2 million".
[HTL] He then discusses the drawdown of the CODA inventory for use elsewhere and to monetize that inventory. Adds some words about other cost-cutting measures.
"We believe our current cash balances will be sufficient to fund our operations for more than 2 years. The expected proceeds from the sale of our old facility in Frederick will add an additional year of runway. In addition to our foreign liquidity, our expenditures on future development activities and equipment will be aided significantly by our $45 million DOE grant, of which approximately $25 million remains available to fund activities through January of 2015".
[HTL] from the Q&A regarding drawsown of CODA inventory: "...On the standpoint of the drawdown, we have people that we're aware of that we've already shipped units to that are testing those. With success we'll start seeing again follow-on orders and again, the kind of follow-up pattern, they'll send us a few for testing and then it's a good handful, and then some significant numbers over that. ...".
[HTL] Discussion of what's happening in China begins with a question from Unknown Attendee on the last page. They cut him off as he started grousing about disparity between PR and results.
Then discussion continues with Unknown Analyst that is interesting to me.
[HTL] Regarding progress on the HD 220 product .. "One is from a customer looking at the specifications and reacting, we've got nothing but positive signs. And then in addition, we have now a number of them heading into real production and in vehicles and running tests and accumulating mileage. And those have all also been positive and obviously, we'll continue to do that. So at this point, it looks like we definitely have got a motor in the sweet spot. Stay tuned, because we might have other things coming in the future along that way, ... We're not quite ready to announce, but stay tuned".
[HTL] Some discussion of the military stuff and non-REE efforts takes place - no detailed stuff.
http://bit.ly/XeSaxK
HardToLove
January 31, 2013 | about: UQM
http://seekingalpha.co...
HardToLove
HardToLove
Of course, might be the best time to buy, but ...
(UQM) was really counting on CODA and until they either get themselves going in a positive direction or one or more of UQM's "stay tuned" items bears fruit, I think the potential opportunity cost is too high for other than a small speculative position. We can see the risk, but the potential reward for now is undefined. So we can't really determine any kind of future direction ATM. We have little visibility very far out for now other than they are reacting positively to control costs and have lots of runway left due to the cash balance and cost reductions.
MHO, could be all wet, ...
HardToLove
UQM not mentioned - no reason for Audi to mention - but maybe this is part of mgmt's reason for "stay tuned" during the last CC?
http://bit.ly/VeOuAy
HardToLove
- UQM is the exclusive supplier of electric propulsion systems to Proterra
- Proterra to purchase newly introduced UQM PowerPhase HD® 220 propulsion system
- New agreement expands the volume of systems that UQM will provide Proterra for its EcoRide™ BE35 battery-electric buses
- Initial orders for 20 systems have already been placed under the agreement
http://bit.ly/YrwwXq
HardToLove
http://bit.ly/Yaxs3j
UQM). If BYD is successful, they might find the more-efficient(?) UQM motors attractive too and become a customer, and as "local production" has some cost, service and political advantages ... their planned California plant might be a potential buyer of UQM stuff.
MHO,
HardToLove
The electric bus market will get a big boost soon (albeit from a starting point of next to nothing) as the emissions laws in Southern California require transit agencies to have a percentage of vehicles that are zero emissions. LA MTA will be ordering 30 this year and eventually have 300 in their fleet, their contract should be awarded in June or July. Long Beach will have 10 and an option to buy up to 20 more.
Thats right. There are many places where 150 miles would be more than enough for the service day. Other places where only a fast charging bus will do.
With the ePower conversion effort I'm sure UQM is alert enough to both notice it and maybe be working on a relationship.
Speculation, but that's free! :-))
HardToLove
Also totally free speculation ... but donations are willingly accepted.
I'm unsure about the same or smaller diesel though. There's some really long hills in some parts of the country that would likely drain the batteries, leaving the unit reliant on the IC HP, via the generator, for the remainder of the climb. I would *think* if I had the need for more motor (in the electrical sense), I'd also have need for more motor (in the NASCAR sense) too. This because we really don't want the added weight of more and more batteries where we have really long hills, even if infrequent.
I'd still have good fuel gains and we'd just tweak the software so the diesel could ramp up when *needed*, not just when the driver pushes the pedal to the metal. With route-mapping and GPS, the software could be "The Enforcer" (you feeling lucky today driver?).
Oh! I also wondered about two motors in-line. If the drive-line has enough room, different sizes of motors could be used to tailor available HP more precisely for very little overhead.
HardToLove
As to the "two-wheeler", I got that. That's what I would expect the normal two-motor installation to be. I was just thinking outside the box wondering if a two-motor in-line, separately controlled might have any advantage or not.
In a way, I envisioned it similar to the RR "consist" with in-line genset locos mated with one or more electrical ones.
HardToLove
It's logical fallacy that is easy enough to make because it is made by "experts" all the time. Think about it 100 hp motor shafted to a 200 hp motor. It is true (forgetting the generator thingy) that under heavy load the 200 hp would overdrive the 100 beyond its operational limits but not by an additional 100 hp. The smaller motor would act as a brake or resistor or whatever functional "drag" name you want & make getting to 200 hp output with 300 hp of motor very hard and very hot.
HardToLove
- Audi has logged over 50,000 kilometers in its first phase of testing with the A1 e-tron extended-range electric vehicles
- The company will expand testing the vehicle in the NPE (National Platform of Electrification) in Germany in 2013
- The test vehicles are equipped with UQM PowerPhase Select® 125 drive systems
"The German Federal Ministry of Education and Research is promoting this program to demonstrate and further develop the viability of electric vehicles. Audi will participate in the regions of Bavaria/Saxony, Berlin-Brandenburg and Baden-Württemberg, addressing different focal topics in each area".
http://bit.ly/11GUw0x
Not much more in there - usual fluff.
HardToLove
In other news, UQM customer Proterra is a leader in the still tiny US electric bus market, but has big competition from BYD.
http://bit.ly/Yd1dnU
I wonder if it'll settle out on political issues (buy American - BYD didn't fulfill understandings, ...) or on cost & eqpt. meeting the needs.
Good old California high drama over this.
HardToLove
http://bit.ly/10L2tz0
Not good for Proterra, especially since BYD says its building a factory in SoCal and thats where most of the market is at the moment. Over time, though, I would expect electric buses to play well in cities with cheap hydropower (or other cheap electricity)
HardToLove
I was surprised that it showed BYD buses (I believe using a big LFP battery) costing the same up front as Proterra buses (using a smaller lithium-titanate battery) but less when you consider that BYD's bigger battery does not require expensive charging equipment.
There was also other fuel costs noted that favored BYD. I suspect that is a plan to recharge at night vs. paying high prices in Long Beach California to recharge during peak periods.
They might be taking a chance on the range though.
They've had a tough time thus far - financial difficulties - but have had good results in Charlotte NC - near their plant - and a few other wins.
I don't know whose motors they use.
HardToLove
Not sure, but I think DesignLine uses proprietary motors.
http://bit.ly/WUmjX7
http://bit.ly/16iviEy
Jay Leno takes a look
http://bit.ly/YFbXv0
Looks like additional revenue stream in hand.
http://bit.ly/10yHmhw
HardToLove
Any idea (sorry, don't follow these guys closely) if these components are the same ones as might have been in cancelled orders that they might have already built? Guessing most of the cancelled orders were for cars, not buses ...
Not to say that satisfied repeat customers aren't a good thing to have and publicize. PR would have been a little stronger with a quote from the Denver folks, preferably lauding the durability and or value. Wonder if there was a second bidder, and whether they had to give away much (or any) margin to seal the deal.
Here's a link to Colorado Freedom of Info :-)
http://bit.ly/Z8BYjm
Wonder if they have many more customers like this that might need a "refresh" in the next couple of years.
Probably not a huge percentage of revenue, but every little bit ...
HardToLove
HardToLove
BYD uses proprietary motors and controllers.
http://bit.ly/10E0AHo
(They also have their own iron phosphate batteries with proprietary battery management system)
Siemens will supply permanent magnet excited motors, inverters and voltage protection modules for the rear-axle drive systems of seven new all-electric buses being manufactured by DesignLine.
Formidable competition. UQM needs to make sure that tax-payer support for expended manufacturing capability doesn't end up being another DOE boondoogle.
I'm thinking UQM's best shot now is Audi/Saab - and I don't have any feel for the odds there - or Great Wall (or some other co.) in China. If anything offers volume, that's where it will be if Coda can't get resurrected. With what we know now about PHEV acceptance in the U.S. that seems unlikely.
HardToLove
While the implementation is in its infancy, the potential operational cost savings that I see quoted (especially in areas where electricity is cheap) are certainly impressive!
There's lots of issues listed. Thanks to D Lane for the link.
Chinese Bus Company Recommended By LBT Fabricates Stats; Earnings Are "Below Expectations"
http://bit.ly/11OqyF2
HardToLove
One gets us (UQM) motors and the other gets (maybe range-extended, if needed) (CPST). Either way, two U.S. companies may benefit.
HardToLove
"The motion carried with it a $14 million performance insurance policy that must be taken out by BYD to ensure that their buses are not only delivered before the June 2014 due date, but are also Altoona tested and Buy American approved. Company representatives say their Lancaster production plant will be producing by the beginning of next year and that a Chinese-built model constructed according to American specifications is currently on its way to Altoona. If the company should fail at any of the provisions listed on the performance insurance policy, BYD must repay the cost of the contract."
http://tinyurl.com/bs4...
I think Proterra's best hope for this contract specifically is that BYD will not/can not live up to its own promises and eventually the contract goes back out for new bids.
http://bit.ly/186wSew
It looks to me like the BYD bigger battery was favored here because of the cost of the quick chargers that Proterra has developed and because they can "opportunity charge" instead of recharge frequently during the day. BYD was also very competitive on the cost of the bus, despite the bigger battery. (I suspect a loss leader strategy?)
I think the calculation will be very different in cities where electricity cost is very low, as in the Pacific Northwest. Especially, when BYD's quoted range proves to be a bit of a sham.
http://bit.ly/L09Hs2
(Proterra is no doubt counting on BYD range claims to be proven to be hopium, so their rapid charging scheme can show itself to be the game-changer they planned it to be)
http://bit.ly/10MEvGL
Not mentioned in the article is Wrightspeed. I'm optimistic that a couple years down the road they will be an important customer. They've been using the UQM motors since their earliest street-legal prototype sporty-car and, AFAIK, continue to use them in their truck conversions.
HardToLove
This article says Wrightspeed is using a *proprietary* motor in "The Route" medium duty truck.
"Wrightspeed’s proprietary motor boasts four times the power density than the competition, the firm says."
http://bit.ly/Xblg0L
I *guess* all this because they started with UQM and I don't believe Ian Wright would want to re-invent the wheel when he had such good success with UQM, and UQM has all the engineering talent, suppliers, *production capacity*, ... to be a good supplier to Wrightspeed.
'Course, don't know for sure.
HardToLove
I would love to hear more out of Wrightspeed about their progress. But watching these technologies progress leaves lots of time for other things in between.
HardToLove
One of them was about the Audi e-tron getting a play in the Iron movie. IIRC, this is one of the models utilizing (UQM) motors, but I'd have to go dig to confirm it..
Let's hope some of the PR somehow bleeds over to UQM.
HardToLove
http://bit.ly/12YuUuq
HardToLove
http://bit.ly/15Zszm2
HardToLove
http://bloom.bg/ZUJgw5
http://abcn.ws/17xBoSa
Nevertheless, the bigger battery won. Looks like Proterra's quick-charge solution worked against them in this case:
"Micheal Austin, a BYD vice president, tells ABC News that what tipped the procurement decision, he thinks, was the ability of BYD's buses to re-charge in a single overnight charge of 4-5 hours. "That was unique," he tells ABC. "The others had smaller batteries and needed in-route charging."
HardToLove
And we can add a bit of marketing hyperbole and probably downright exaggeration in this case.
Garrett E. Mikita has been selected by the Proterra Board of Directors as the new president/CEO of Proterra Inc., the leading provider of zero-emission commercial transit solutions and the maker of the world's first all-electric fast-charge transit bus.
Mikita has spent 25 years in senior leadership roles in Fortune 50 companies and brings with him a wealth of experience and innovative approaches. He recently served as the president of the Defense & Space strategic business unit of Honeywell Aerospace, where he led the $5.3 billion organization. As president of the unit, Mikita was responsible for a wide range of engineering services, advanced technology products and logistical services to the U. S. Department of Defense, NASA, and international ministries of defense.
http://bit.ly/YL7WaI
to Proterra.
On paper, they have attracted someone who did not need to take this job. He must see something in the business.
MHO,
HardToLove
Thursday, May 23, 2013, at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time. To participate in the call, dial 1-888-549-7880 approximately 10 minutes before the conference is scheduled to begin and provide conference ID code “4620332” to access the call. International callers should dial +1-480-629-9770.
"... a recording will be available for 7 days following the call. Dial 1-800-406-7325 and enter replay access code 4620332# to access the playback. International callers should dial +1-303-590-3030. Please allow two hours from the time of the conference call for initial setup before access".
HardToLove
- Newly introduced UQM PowerPhase HD® 950T is rated at 950 Nm of peak torque and is ideal for heavier commercial trucks and buses needing higher levels of torque, as well as parallel hybrid applications
- UQM continues to expand its lineup of production-ready electric propulsion systems
"... designed for heavier commercial trucks and buses that require higher torque".
"... 144 kW of peak power and 100 kW of continuous power. This high torque level delivers better launch performance, grade climbing and acceleration for heavier vehicles. The power and speed range also make it possible to use this electric motor in conjunction with simplified transmissions.
In addition to full-electric vehicle applications, the PowerPhase HD® 950T is ideal for use in parallel hybrid applications. The higher torque and lower speed range optimizes the system for operation at engine speeds, a requirement in these types of powertrain systems".
HardToLove
HardToLove