H. T. Love's  Instablog

H. T. Love
Send Message
Spent over 30 years in computer systems work, many different functions. Owned my own business for awhile. Got tired of it (managing employees is not my baliwick) and stopped doing it professionally. Did other things, off and on, for some more years and finally bumped into this investing/trading... More
  • AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 5/1/2013 8 comments
    May 2, 2013 8:30 AM | about stocks: AXPW

    I've been manually collecting this data for a year now while volume was low and it was therefore reasonable to do so. I'll stop when it gets too large unless I can craft a mechanized capture of most of the stuff.

    I've captured enough data now that I can reasonably expect to be able to detect patterns on the charts that may signal, somewhat reliably, when price moves are about to occur. To help more easily identify any useful patterns, I've made an instablog, Axion Power International (NASDAQ:AXPW) 2/13/2012 And Forward One Year Experimental Charts Snapshots. I've also added some lines to them that may assist in this. For anybody with an interest, I welcome any suggestions and/or help.

    I've also put up AXPW Fails-to-deliver Charts 2/11/2013, which I hope will convince folks that John has been correct in asserting the "big uglies" are out of our lives, at least for now. These are updated about every two weeks as data becomes available.

    I'll update this instablog daily as long as I can for anybody that might find it useful. The charts will stay near the top and the text updates expressing my most recent thoughts will follow after the charts.

    I've arranged the chart segments in this instablog to put what I think are related stuff close together.

    This is the ninth installment of the original "AXPW: Some Intra-Day Trade Charting" instablogs I've started doing on Seeking Alpha. The others grew, as I added daily commentary and FINRA data, to the point I was afraid the load time might become an irritant for folks that have less internet bandwidth or older computing equipment so I've started rolling to a new one aperiodically.

    Versions subsequent to the original (latest to oldest) can be found here.

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 3/1/2013

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 02/01/2013

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 12/15/2012

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 11/14/2012

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 9/6/2012 - Xx/xx/2012

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 7/7/2012 - 9/5/2012

    In the below chart note that the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!

    (right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

    AXPW Intra-day Statistics Chart 20130531

    The following are modified inflection point calculations bracketing a price chart for comparison. Note that the false bullish moves and contrary moves of the 5-day has been eliminated.

    The two inflection points are calculated differently from each other and differently from the original above. More work to do, this is a start, hopefully.

    I've identified some changes I want to try on the new inflection point calculations but haven't had time to implement them yet. I'll work them in over time after a little experimentation.

    Comments and further suggestions welcome.

    (right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

    AXPW Intra-day Statistics Chart Test IP Calculations 20130531

    In all the charts above I had to:
    - estimate 3/27 buy:sell ratio because I couldn't get ADVFN screen-shots that day,
    - omit 3/28 data due to garbage from the ADVFN feed.
    - estimate the buy:sell for the first 28 trades of 11/26 as the ADVFN feed did not properly classify then because the bid/ask was missing. I put all the $0.26xx trades below $0.2650 as sells and ones at or above $0.2650 as buys. This was 41% of the days volume, 227,698 shares.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point calculations values are now only in the latest daily comment - attempting to keep things shorter for faster loading.

    05/31/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 55, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 23700, Vol 190950, AvTrSz: 3472
    Min. Pr: 0.2611, Max Pr: 0.2775, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2709
    # Buys, Shares: 26 113450, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2717
    # Sells, Shares: 28 72500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2695
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2715
    Buy:Sell 1.56:1 (59.4% "buys"), DlyShts 98765 (51.72%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 150.02%

    We had another 10K AH trade below the closing today, $0.2775, at $0.2720. Still don't have any indication of why. None approach the ~10% seen when we know Quercus was in. My best guess is that it's a market-maker balancing his position at EOD after handling some order. There were 56.6K shares traded above that price, so if he had a sell order for 10K @ $0.2720, this could've been the taking of the shares for a sell order to cover the shares shorted at a higher price during the day. If the customer order was a buy, 134.35K traded at or below that price so the market-maker could've been accumulating during the day at lower prices and then filled the buy order at EOD.

    The FINRA daily short sales data excludes the AH trade. Including it in the day's volume would move daily short percentage from 54.58% to 51.72%. Including it also in the daily short volume would move short volume from 98765 to 108765 and percentage from 54.58% to 59.96%. Regardless, it's interesting, to me, that it peaked right at the ascending upper trend line I had added to my chart a while back. I expect it will withdraw back to somewhere in the mid-range Monday.

    A big change in selling behavior occurred today. I suspect it was due to the comment I posted from an Axionista detailing the difficulty in acquiring shares. Or maybe my comments about the sellers being too easy in light of what I thought was demonstrated bullishness by the buyers. Maybe both. Anyway, as I posted, "Kudos to them" for showing some discipline. That was before I did my usual look at EOD. That now seems to support my take ...

    First, only six of eighteen "peeks" at the ask were reductions in the asking price. Ten were increases (some "uncovered") and two unchanged. Of the decreases, three had ATDF (a "usual suspect") at the top and the other three were ARCA. The demonstration of discipline came after the last reduction at 10:45 to $0.263 by ARCA. This was the last lowering of the price I caught for the day (there could've - nay, certainly must have been - others that I didn't catch). The next check, at 1:02, started a string of eight consecutive increases, culminating in the last change before the close to an ask of $0.2775.

    What were the bidders doing? Well, they were "rising to the challenge"! :-) As I would expect if there is a bullish bias out there in the wild.

    Of the twenty-three looks I took nineteen were improvements in the bid and three were lowering (some "uncovered"). Most notably, from 12:48 onward, nine were raises of the bid and only two were lowered bids.

    We had strength into the close as both the asks and bids rose and buy:sell was 1.38:1 (57.99% "buys") in the last 49 minutes on 44.25% of the day's total volume.

    Some context for all this - note where the "gravitas" is without any exceptional large trades today ...
    $0.2611-$0.2630: 006700 shares, 03.51% of vol, VWAP $0.0092, 22.4% buys
    $0.2650-$0.2690: 031150 shares, 16.31% of vol, VWAP $0.2672, 59.9% buys
    $0.2700-$0.2740: 128300 shares, 67.19% of vol, VWAP $0.2711, 53.4% buys
    $0.2750-$0.2775: 024800 shares, 12.99% of vol, VWAP $0.2767, 100.0% buys

    If any "sellers" below $0.27 read this, please pay attention to the skew above - maybe you could do better for yourself. Of course, I have no interest in this, right? ;-))

    Another look at the trend throughout the day might be useful?
    09:54-10:31: 006650 shares, 03.48% of vol, VWAP $0.2648, 92.5% buys
    10:45-11:28: 026200 shares, 13.72% of vol, VWAP $0.2663, 53.4% buys
    11:39-13:28: 097000 shares, 50.80% of vol, VWAP $0.2706, 53.8% buys
    13:34-13:55: 010600 shares, 05.55% of vol, VWAP $0.2717, 52.8% buys
    14:53-15:23: 010700 shares, 05.60% of vol, VWAP $0.2725, 76.6% buys
    15:32-16:02: 039800 shares, 20.84% of vol, VWAP $0.2750, 68.6% buys

    Sellers paying attention here too?

    On to the mundane ...

    The average trade size remained in the lower area of what I think is retail. I think this trend is partly caused by the presence of the newer more active market-makers. With few "large" bids and asks being both present simultaneously recently, I think the MMs have to work harder to get the job done, as JP mentioned some time back.

    All the buy:sell averages are back in the "normal" range, a nice change from what was seen in late April with all but the 100-day average far below the "normal" range.

    My original inflection point calculations are showing improvement again. Yes, I know - recall that I termed them a bit "flaky" a long time back. Anyway, the one-day changes had four improved and two deteriorating a small amount. The five-day change in the six periods had only one improving and the rate of change over five days for those periods also had only one showing improvement. The summary for this state of affairs appears visually as "in disarray" on the chart and not giving me confidence to call any movement based on these metrics and the chart.

    My newer version, which includes other factors, fulfilled yesterday's promise of getting the 25-day period above zero (moved from -0.19 yesterday to -0.13 mid-day and finished at +14.17, a strong move) to join the 5 and 10-period calculations. This means the three short-term calculations are in agreement in suggesting that a move up has begun to manifest itself. The longer-term periods (50, 100 and 200) will not be responding strongly until volume comes in or a long-time passes without severe deterioration in their various metrics.

    Anyway, the one-day changes for the six periods have two improving (the 10 and 25-day) while the 5-day weakened slightly and the longer-term ones weakened a noticeable amount. Keep in mind that these need either more volume or more time before they respond well to near-term moves and are, to some degree, affected by their "tails", just like averages. Depending on what falls off the "tails", they could suddenly jump. I could go look and predict, but I don't see much value in that right now. The changes over five days of the six periods only shows the 10-day improving and the others weakened a bit. The average changes over five days of those periods shows only the 50 and 100-day improving while the others deteriorated slightly.

    Although I believe the start of a move up continues, as I mentioned a few days ago, I don't see the strength in it yet that I would like. Maybe it's time to dip back into a little traditional TA and see if there's anything there that might sway me.

    Well, the first thing is the MACD histogram and signal are positive and the average rose to zero. All seem destined to be going more positive ATM. The other day I mentioned that we were near the apex of a triangle I had been watching and should break out. We did - to the upside. We've now had three consecutive closes above the descending resistance of the triangle - a bullish indication. Since the low of $0.2001 on 4/29, we've had an overall trend of higher lows. BTW, I almost called a "double-pipe bottom" on 4/30, but the "pipes" weren't quite close enough for me to crank up the courage.

    The WVAP of the last three days, $0.2628, $0.2713 and $0.2709 are above the "standard" charting price 50-day SMA for those days of $0.2612, $$0.2612 and $0.2608. I've got a potential rising trading channel $0.0225 wide that rises $0.008/week. It's early yet and I'd like to see the support tested once more, but it does look promising. It's range through Friday was ~$0.256 - ~$0.2785. Being as tight as it is, it would be very easy to break out either way, so I wouldn't hang a lot of decisions on it. We need it to expand enough to actually make some legs up and down where we can see "waves" and this channel will not be that channel. When we see that, we might recognize the start of another "grind up". For now there's a bias upward in a narrow rising channel that should be able to prevent much of a down move in the near-term. This is sort of an upward-biased consolidation ATM, inside of a longer-term triangle, which is also a consolidation, with the rising support currently at ~$0.246 and rising ~$0.01/week.

    Of the oscillators I watch, right now only the accumulation/distribution (just finished rising to almost neutral and continuing up it looks like) and stochastic (%K just crossed into overbought and above %D) are showing bullishness. The rest are fairly neutral and showing no coordinated directional indications.

    In summary of the traditional TA, nothing mind-boggling going on here - just a bias towards a rising share price at the moment that is a bit fragile, but has some rising support, both in the channel and the triangle, that should prevent any dramatic moves downward. If one expects news that would move share price in the next month or two, decisions to enter here should be seen as relatively low risk.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points omitted from the concentrator.

    Rolling 5-day inflection point calculation aggregate percentage change (now abbreviated):
    ******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
    05/01 5 Day -0033.99 -0087.44 -0405.65 -0005.80 -0389.45 -0032.88
    05/02 5 Day -0165.79 +0132.46 -0321.11 -0074.07 -0342.56 +0150.27
    05/03 5 Day +0391.10 +0524.13 -0175.48 -0119.87 +0030.68 +0031.46
    05/06 5 Day +0344.99 +0733.08 +0568.79 +0180.22 +0452.20 -0168.80
    05/07 5 Day +0232.87 +0582.81 +0467.23 +0177.61 +0620.82 -0511.39
    05/08 5 Day +0695.46 +0661.46 +0748.97 +0358.52 +0749.23 +0158.36
    05/09 5 Day +0822.86 +0657.07 +1026.07 +0443.47 +0861.18 +0182.23
    05/10 5 Day +0574.92 +0183.82 +1078.30 +0326.64 +0588.89 +0225.24
    05/13 5 Day +0011.18 +0372.37 +0708.92 +0166.91 +0772.79 -0102.58
    05/14 5 Day -0002.56 +0230.30 +0516.31 -0207.21 +0788.80 -0131.13
    05/15 5 Day +0641.91 +0063.55 +0208.05 -0455.27 +0360.45 -0798.36
    05/16 5 Day +0903.35 -0080.50 -0094.75 -0510.03 +0478.91 -0789.10
    05/17 5 Day +0635.15 -0060.22 -0149.43 -0363.86 +0551.62 -0683.41
    05/20 5 Day +0186.62 +0175.45 +0214.61 -0048.37 +0436.13 -0299.99
    05/21 5 Day +0026.67 +0024.11 +0345.09 +0280.36 +0108.11 -0035.73
    05/22 5 Day +0522.23 -0119.68 +0498.34 +0394.82 +0440.72 +0139.62
    05/24 5 Day +0533.04 -0083.61 +1015.45 +0461.86 -0007.61 +0492.82
    05/28 5 Day +0435.95 +0249.33 +1009.78 +0678.09 -0193.42 +0590.96
    05/29 5 Day +0429.97 +0456.64 +1036.89 +0907.83 +0061.88 +0629.91
    05/30 5 Day +0185.05 +0707.28 +0736.83 +0874.32 -0282.25 +0420.90
    05/31 5 Day +0037.79 +0815.38 +0569.09 +0833.03 -0629.11 +0391.59

    Average % change/day, 5 days
    ____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
    04/25 +088.99 +016.16 +108.41 +079.68 +080.05 +044.17
    04/26 +305.71 +064.53 +201.56 +237.94 +193.50 +111.74
    04/29 +149.46 +016.08 +030.64 +159.96 +084.58 +181.12
    04/30 +122.35 +030.41 +018.11 +184.52 +177.44 +211.43
    05/01 +003.89 -053.19 -108.63 +095.29 +151.77 +137.97
    05/02 -092.81 -003.82 -117.01 +022.69 +059.85 +189.34
    05/03 -104.83 +044.45 -125.94 -079.57 +082.94 +114.89
    05/06 -008.62 +140.84 +149.46 +030.67 +256.43 -002.32
    05/07 -023.42 +098.94 +101.15 +006.62 +216.84 -136.31
    05/08 +145.89 +149.78 +230.92 +072.86 +227.74 +038.25
    05/09 +197.73 +104.92 +269.44 +103.51 +240.75 +006.39
    05/10 +036.76 -068.06 +250.76 +089.30 +111.64 +038.76
    05/13 -070.00 -075.38 +024.79 -005.90 +060.88 +010.00
    05/14 -047.09 -070.50 +009.81 -076.96 +033.60 +076.05
    05/15 -012.71 -121.58 -110.18 -164.76 -079.76 -193.34
    05/16 +016.10 -147.51 -224.16 -190.70 -076.45 -194.27
    05/17 +012.05 -048.81 -245.55 -138.10 -007.45 -181.73
    05/20 +035.09 -039.38 -098.86 -043.06 -067.33 -039.48
    05/21 +005.85 -041.24 -034.24 +097.51 -136.14 +019.08
    05/22 -023.94 -036.64 +058.06 +170.02 +016.05 +187.60
    05/24 -016.72 -008.38 +229.27 +161.44 -115.55 +231.54
    05/28 +049.87 +014.78 +159.03 +145.29 -125.91 +178.19
    05/29 +080.66 +086.51 +138.36 +125.49 -009.25 +133.13
    05/30 -067.44 +165.39 +047.70 +095.90 -144.59 +056.26
    05/31 -147.96 +188.23 -052.09 +056.32 -169.81 -024.64

    I encourage those with an interest to look at the charts and notice the prior patterns similar to the current one and the resulting price activity.

    Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40% 16.32% 3.01%
    Mon. 9/10: 23.65% 50.20% 26.05% 252.39% 185.99%
    Mon. 9/17: 32.74% 12.62% 12.85% 42.25% 42.89%
    Mon. 9/24: 5.08% 50.67% 89.56% 9.24% 44.74%
    Mon. 10/1: 74.24% 67.10% 517.63% 102.93%
    Mon. 10/8: 28.10% 27.40% 11.45% 27.48% 25.32%
    Mon. 10/15: 44.06% 17.09% 71.49% 40.64% 139.27%
    Mon. 10/22: 194.20% 19.54% 25.53% 15.21% 15.17%
    Wed. 10/31: 62.24% 149.46% 39.90%
    Mon. 11/05: 30.92% 7.61% 6.98% 3.53% 10.10%
    Mon. 11/12: 4.01% 116.57% 30.19% 16.71% 39.58%
    Mon. 11/19: 14.90% 3.88% 259.67% T'gvg Day 8.97% (1/2 day)
    Mon. 11/26: 65.57% 142.31% 59.83% 11.20% 69.26%
    Mon. 12/03: 29.97% 13.19% 10.55% 15.57% 40.42%
    Mon. 12/10: 3.59% 9.24% 135.35% 6.19% 12.73%
    Mon. 12/17: 26.17% 8.82% 44.97% 3.63% 15.11%
    Mon. 12/24: 258.33% 92.71% 31.98% 1.54%
    Mon. 12/31: 14.36% H'lday 262.58% 6.39% 131.03%
    Mon. 01/07: 45.09% 77.18% 52.53% 36.35% 52.72%
    Mon. 01/14: 27.99% 0.70% 48.48% 11.09% 11.21%
    Tues. 01/22: 00.26% 23.79% 12.89% 8.36%
    Mon. 01/28: 69.26% 42.03% 7.96% 0.00% 28.33%
    Mon. 02/04: 17.36% 28.73% 18.53% 12.68% 39.65%
    Mon. 02/11: 25.67% 5.99% 16.57% 17.04% 8.23%
    Tues. 02/19: 19.57% 19.88% 10.17% 30.54%
    Mon. 02/25: 2.88% 55.65% 28.57% 6.95% 0.28%
    Mon. 03/04: 100.79% 18.46% 11.55% 21.97% 3.61%
    Mon. 03/11: 25.81% 9.64% 1.35% 13.40% 0.00%
    Mon. 03/18: 7.10% 5.65% 9.26% 25.15% 9.02%
    Mon. 03/25: 1.47% 14.69% 4.15% 25.64%
    Mon. 04/01: 4.74% 11.82% 19.85% 3.42% 0.59%
    Mon. 04/08: 8.01% 9.51% 13.54% 0.00% 6.62%
    Mon. 04/15: 2.68% 8.94% 5.64% 1.67% 18.45%
    Mon. 04/22: 0.42% 4.90% 690.95% 39.86% 22.22%
    Mon. 04/29: 5.98% 14.04% 17.33% 13.58% 150.50%
    Mon. 05/06: 9.96% 9.15% 114.65% 53.10% 39.36%
    Mon. 05/13: 33.94% 54.27% 29.90% 61.57% 104.44%
    Mon. 05/20: 92.10% 132.60% 34.23% 55.97%
    Tue. 05/28: 76.82% 109.81% 28.64% 150.02%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
    Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%

    ============ 2013 ===============
    Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 262.58%
    Feb Avg: 20.90%, min: 2.88%, max: 55.65%
    Mar Avg: 15.42%, min: 0.00%, max: 100.79%
    Apr Avg: 40.63%, min: 0.00%, max: 690.95%
    May Avg: 67.58%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%

    0531 Vol 0180950, Sht 0098765 54.58% LHC 0.2611 0.2775 0.2775 b:s 1.38:1[65]
    0530 Vol 0221542, Sht 0049700 22.43% LHC 0.2650 0.2739 0.2739 b:s 1:3.62
    0529 Vol 0518608, Sht 0199204 38.41% LHC 0.2526 0.2750 0.2720 b:s 1.89:1[64]
    0528 Vol 0538254, Sht 0132592 24.63% LHC 0.2540 0.2660 0.2600 b:s 2.23:1[63]
    0524 Vol 0155897, Sht 0056184 36.04% LHC 0.2602 0.2690 0.2611 b:s 1:1.63[62]
    0523 Vol 0109249, Sht 0033000 30.21% LHC 0.2550 0.2960 0.2690 b:s 2.89:1[61]
    0522 Vol 0167469, Sht 0031100 18.57% LHC 0.2520 0.2650 0.2600 b:s 1:1.23
    0521 Vol 0185758, Sht 0086259 46.44% LHC 0.2531 0.2640 0.2600 b:s 1.68:1
    0520 Vol 0355550, Sht 0135850 38.21% LHC 0.2510 0.2615 0.2600 b:s 1.41:1
    0517 Vol 0261558, Sht 0092700 35.44% LHC 0.2500 0.2640 0.2591 b:s 1.78:1
    0515 Vol 0370415, Sht 0078250 21.12% LHC 0.2390 0.2500 0.2430 b:s 1:2.41
    0514 Vol 0590688, Sht 0178460 30.21% LHC 0.2210 0.2510 0.2500 b:s 1:1.32
    0513 Vol 0778100, Sht 0155500 19.98% LHC 0.2350 0.2500 0.2460 b:s 1:1.70
    0510 Vol 0270484, Sht 0066455 24.57% LHC 0.2401 0.2500 0.2480 b:s 1:1.67
    0509 Vol 0304708, Sht 0068700 22.55% LHC 0.2451 0.2592 0.2459 b:s 1.35:1
    0508 Vol 1143057, Sht 0539744 47.22% LHC 0.2300 0.2650 0.2549 b:s 1.45:1
    0507 Vol 0129978, Sht 0005424 04.17% LHC 0.2560 0.2625 0.2600 b:s 1.19:1
    0503 Vol 0183500, Sht 0076000 41.42% LHC 0.2500 0.2598 0.2590 b:s 2.63:1
    0502 Vol 0184550, Sht 0018850 10.21% LHC 0.2410 0.2600 0.2600 b:s 1:3.04
    0501 Vol 0301628, Sht 0032500 10.77% LHC 0.2400 0.2795 0.2610 b:s 1:1.64
    0430 Vol 0407902, Sht 0021880 05.36% LHC 0.2101 0.2549 0.2390 b:s 1.57:1
    0429 Vol 1332379, Sht 0051500 03.87% LHC 0.2001 0.2440 0.2119 b:s 1:1.83
    0426 Vol 0133648, Sht 0016000 11.97% LHC 0.2324 0.2499 0.2449 b:s 1:1.27
    0425 Vol 0191550, Sht 0061000 31.85% LHC 0.2400 0.2500 0.2400 b:s 1:3.97
    0424 Vol 0161622, Sht 0067022 41.47% LHC 0.2450 0.2500 0.2500 b:s 13.29:1
    0423 Vol 0070533, Sht 0000833 01.18% LHC 0.2401 0.2500 0.2500 b:s 3.15:1
    0422 Vol 0240850, Sht 0000550 00.23% LHC 0.2400 0.2559 0.2401 b:s 1:1.20
    0419 Vol 0515507, Sht 0078791 15.28% LHC 0.2321 0.2603 0.2450 b:s 1:4.83
    0418 Vol 0295580, Sht 0004500 01.20% LHC 0.2600 0.2625 0.2600 b:s 1:136.86
    0417 Vol 0115060, Sht 0005275 04.58% LHC 0.2600 0.2750 0.2600 b:s 1:4.35
    0416 Vol 0161636, Sht 0009600 05.94% LHC 0.2601 0.2700 0.2601 b:s 1:1.98
    0415 Vol 0253015, Sht 0005800 02.29% LHC 0.2600 0.2629 0.2601 b:s 1:5.89
    0412 Vol 0091300, Sht 0004500 04.93% LHC 0.2601 0.2739 0.2622 b:s 1:2.92
    0411 Vol 0146890, Sht 0000000 00.00% LHC 0.2600 0.2629 0.2604 b:s 1:2.08[60]
    0410 Vol 0106016, Sht 0010900 10.28% LHC 0.2605 0.2669 0.2639 b:s 1:3.15
    0409 Vol 0217371, Sht 0012500 05.75% LHC 0.2611 0.2725 0.2650 b:s 1:1.53
    0408 Vol 0196151, Sht 0011200 05.71% LHC 0.2600 0.2800 0.2600 b:s 1:2.48
    0405 Vol 0360500, Sht 0001700 00.47% LHC 0.2600 0.2960 0.2648 b:s 1:4.04
    0404 Vol 0446792, Sht 0011884 02.66% LHC 0.2602 0.2950 0.2855 b:s 1:3.52
    0403 Vol 0100000, Sht 0010300 10.30% LHC 0.2600 0.2699 0.2675 b:s 1:1.08
    0402 Vol 0262385, Sht 0024245 09.24% LHC 0.2550 0.2699 0.2650 b:s 1:3.58
    0401 Vol 0323220, Sht 0014100 04.36% LHC 0.2600 0.2849 0.2800 b:s 1:11.63
    0328 Vol 0101815, Sht 0015000 14.73% LHC 0.2760 0.2850 0.2849 b:s 1:1.35
    0327 Vol 0192540, Sht 0006500 03.38% LHC 0.2751 0.3000 0.2889 b:s 1:4.37
    0326 Vol 0089377, Sht 0005977 06.69% LHC 0.2800 0.2950 0.2899 b:s 1.20:1
    0325 Vol 0355680, Sht 0004000 01.12% LHC 0.2771 0.3000 0.2800 b:s 1:3.26
    0322 Vol 0197489, Sht 0003700 01.87% LHC 0.2700 0.2895 0.2890 b:s 3.57:1
    0321 Vol 0314345, Sht 0035494 11.29% LHC 0.2750 0.2979 0.2750 b:s 1.23:1
    0320 Vol 0399349, Sht 0021150 05.30% LHC 0.2700 0.3000 0.2939 b:s 1:1.34
    0319 Vol 0357598, Sht 0014793 04.14% LHC 0.2700 0.2851 0.2750 b:s 1:2.74
    0318 Vol 0204330, Sht 0010830 05.30% LHC 0.2800 0.2999 0.2894 b:s 1:2.94
    0315 Vol 0210470, Sht 0000000 00.00% LHC 0.2810 0.3039 0.2950 b:s 1:7.02
    0314 Vol 0183300, Sht 0019000 10.37% LHC 0.2880 0.3040 0.2880 b:s 1:3.42
    0313 Vol 0138180, Sht 0001500 01.09% LHC 0.2900 0.3040 0.3040 b:s 1:4.13
    0312 Vol 0193325, Sht 0013720 07.10% LHC 0.2931 0.3194 0.3000 b:s 1:2.79
    0311 Vol 0043325, Sht 0004000 09.23% LHC 0.3100 0.3197 0.3195 b:s 1.80:1
    0308 Vol 0136805, Sht 0004160 03.04% LHC 0.3050 0.3198 0.3198 b:s 1:5.39
    0307 Vol 0170660, Sht 0029125 17.07% LHC 0.3010 0.3250 0.3050 b:s 1:2.62[59]
    0306 Vol 0143208, Sht 0010604 07.40% LHC 0.3200 0.3369 0.3200 b:s 1:2.92
    0305 Vol 0225324, Sht 0030291 13.44% LHC 0.3300 0.3500 0.3345 b:s 1:2.68
    0304 Vol 0304233, Sht 0043363 14.25% LHC 0.3002 0.3400 0.3350 b:s 6.07:1
    0301 Vol 0097450, Sht 0000200 00.21% LHC 0.3000 0.3100 0.3099 b:s 1:2.80
    0228 Vol 0077100, Sht 0004550 05.90% LHC 0.3000 0.3200 0.3001 b:s 1:5.65
    0227 Vol 0132545, Sht 0020429 15.41% LHC 0.2926 0.3109 0.3100 b:s 1:1.17
    0226 Vol 0044241, Sht 0012740 28.80% LHC 0.2880 0.3095 0.2926 b:s 1:1.07
    0225 Vol 0073600, Sht 0002000 02.72% LHC 0.2890 0.3089 0.2900 b:s 1:17.38
    0222 Vol 0115700, Sht 0020000 17.29% LHC 0.2880 0.3108 0.2990 b:s 1:1.63
    0221 Vol 0020650, Sht 0002100 10.17% LHC 0.2911 0.3001 0.3001 b:s 0:20650
    0220 Vol 0108250, Sht 0016350 15.10% LHC 0.2910 0.3109 0.2910 b:s 1:3.16
    0219 Vol 0255826, Sht 0033217 12.98% LHC 0.2910 0.3109 0.3000 b:s 1:2.14
    [59] Two pre-market trades totaling 12.5K are not included in FINRA-reported data. Adding these to the day's volume yields a short percentage of 15.9%. If it's also added to the short sales, the percentage goes to 22.73%.
    [60] An AH 50K trade is not included in the FINRA data. Including that in the volume has no effect because reported short sales were zero. If we also include it in short sales, the short percentage moves to 25.39%. However, with the recent daily short sales so low, there's no reason to believe these were a short sale.
    [61] An AH trade of 5.1K is not included in the FINRA daily short sales. Including it in day's volume 28.86%, Including it as short volume as well yields 33.32%.
    [62] Second day in a row an AH trade below the close: manipulation suspected. See this comment. http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1890011-axion-power-concentrator-239-may-24-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013#comment-19222951
    The FINRA data does not include the AH trade of 6K. Adding this to the day's volume moves the short percentage from the FINRA-based 36.04% to 34.70%. If we also add it to short sales, the percentage moves to 38.41%.
    [63] The FINRA data does not include an AH trade of 19.7K. Including it moves the FINRA-reported short percentage from 24.63% to 23.76%. If it's also added to short sales, the short volume moves to 152,292 and percentage moves to 27.29%.
    [64] The FINRA data excludes a 10K AH trade. Including it in the day's volume would move daily short percentage from 38.41% to 37.68%. Including it also in the daily short volume would move volume from 199204 to 209,204 and percentage from 38.41% to 39.58%.
    [65] The FINRA data excludes a 10K AH trade. Including it in the day's volume would move daily short percentage from 54.58% to 51.72%. Including it also in the daily short volume would move volume from 98765 to 108765 and percentage from 54.58% to 59.96%.

    05/30/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 38, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 91462, Vol 221542, AvTrSz: 5830
    Min. Pr: 0.2650, Max Pr: 0.2739, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2713
    # Buys, Shares: 14 48000, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2720
    # Sells, Shares: 24 173542, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2711
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:3.62 (21.7% "buys"), DlyShts 49700 (22.43%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 28.64%

    The most important thing, I think, is to note that we again had a large, 112,642 shares, bid at $0.272 at the open. It was from CDEL and I think my thought that yesterday was ATDF was incorrect. Anyway, it just sat there and no one wanted to jump ahead on the bid. Consequently, through 11 trades prior to 10:27, only one was a buy as the sellers were apparently seeing this as a gift from God. The sell percentage in that period was 99.6% on 126.8K shares.

    Fortunately, subsequent action was more normal and there was actually some price negotiation going on. The next 94.7K shares, which took from 10:27 through the close, had a sell percentage of 49.85% (buys 50.16%), approximately 1:1. This would've made a nice day if that second segment had more volume. It was able to maintain price, even setting the high for the day. The low during that period, matching the day's low (set by the prior trade, 7.5K total shares in these two trades at $0.265 at 10:24 & 10:27) was never revisited. VWAP for this second segment was $0.2706 (excluding that trade matching the low, it's $0.2708).

    We closed up 0.70% (+$0.0019 YIPPEE! Better than a sharp stick in the eye!).

    The question going forward is will the sellers now maintain some discipline or go hell-bent for leather at the first not absolutely ugly bid that comes along.

    On the mundane, average trade size is right back in the middle of what I think is retail. The buy:sell, although low, was not abhorrent, especially considering the early-day action I described above. Daily short sales continue to behave as expected and volume is back below all the averages - not surprising the price behavior yesterday and today. I'm sure some folks are just sitting out this odd behavior for now.

    My original inflection point calculations, which considers only volume and buy:sell, reacted as we might expect. The one-day change for the six periods had four weaken and the other two strengthen only marginally. The five-day changes had only one strengthen and the rate of change over five days for the periods had five weaken as well. My newer version, which has additional considerations, had one-day changes IMPROVE for five of the six periods. The change over five days had five improve and the average change over the five days had five improvements s well. Yesterday I mentioned the two shortest periods had moved above zero and expected the 25-day to do so today if we didn't get weakening. Thanks to the action in the first hour, described above, it didn't quite make it. It's at -0.69. If the action tomorrow can just maintain at least as well as it did today, the 25-day should move above zero, putting the three shortest-term calculations suggesting a trend up has begun.

    Another notable item is that there was NO after-hours trade today.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    05/29/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 105, MinTrSz: 404, MaxTrSz: 46000, Vol 528608, AvTrSz: 5034
    Min. Pr: 0.2526, Max Pr: 0.2750, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2628
    # Buys, Shares: 76 342204, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2617
    # Sells, Shares: 27 181404, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2647
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 5000,VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2670
    Buy:Sell 1.89:1 (64.7% "buys"), DlyShts 199204 (37.68%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 109.81%

    The FINRA daily short data excludes a 10K AH trade. Including it in the day's volume would move daily short percentage from 38.41% to 37.68%. Including it also in the daily short volume would move volume from 199204 to 209,204 and percentage from 38.41% to 39.58%. Shortest to longest averages are ordered highest to lowest and all are rising, suggesting this trend, begun around 4/27, will continue. I'm expecting things to stabilize somewhere around the +/- 30% area.

    This string of AH trades says something different is going on. We don't know what it is though. Today was different in that it was not well-below the closing price of $0.2720, but was at that price.

    An notable aberration in the trading today: around 15:30 we saw a bid of $0.272 x 182,642. This might have been a bump up from the 104K @ $0.255 from ATDF I noted appeared at 13:33 or might have been from CDEL - I didn't catch it's first appearance, so I'm unsure which MM was the big one, but both appeared on the top of the bid at that price. Anyway, it made for some nice trading as VWAP from 15:18 through the AH trade was $0.2721 on 100.4K shares.

    It did ruin our buy sell though which was 3.92:1 prior to that. As the bids came up to this level, the sellers went wild with only three trades being buys (totaling 5K) and nine (95.4K, ~18% of day's volume) being sells during that time. It did help the VWAP though, as we could expect. Up to that time the VWAP was $0.2607.

    Average trade size fell back a bit but remains in the middle of what I believe to be typical retail size. Buy:sell continues in normal ranges and the averages are all there and are all properly ordered, shortest to longest periods being highest to lowest percentages.

    I've not jumped back into TA on this yet, but I did have a triangle I was watching whose apex is formed Thursday, 5/30. It's interesting that we get a break well above it's resistance line today. Also, the MACD that DRich brought to our attention some time ago is showing decidedly bullish tendencies and has been moving that direction for some time.

    My original inflection point calculations have come into agreement with that today: the one-day change for all six periods are improved, the change over five days has five of size periods improving and the rate of change of those over five days has three improving (5, 10 and 100-day) with the other three weakening slightly.

    My newer version, which includes other factors, is not only in agreement, but even more positive today. The one-day change in the six periods are six improved by big amounts with the change over five days improving on all six periods and the rate of change of those over five days showing improvement in five of the six periods. Significantly, I think, is that the five and 10-day periods are both above zero with the 25-day likely to move there today if weakness doesn't return. The five-day period has been positive since 5/21 and improved all but one day. The calculations have the five shortest periods "in order" highest to lowest readings.

    I think we have a signal for bullishness on this one.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are included in the latest daily post above.

    05/28/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 83, MinTrSz: 400, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol 557954, AvTrSz: 6722
    Min. Pr: 0.2540, Max Pr: 0.2660, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2593
    # Buys, Shares: 47 385353, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2601
    # Sells, Shares: 36 172601, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2574
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.23:1 (69.1% "buys"), DlyShts 132592 (23.76%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 76.82%

    The FINRA data does not include an AH trade of 19.7K. Including it moves the FINRA-reported short percentage from 24.63% to 23.76%. If it's also added to short sales, the short volume moves to 152,292 and percentage moves to 27.29%.

    This turned out to be a reasonable day with some improved volume and price still holding fairly well. Without one AH trade of 19.7K at $0.2546, VWAP would be $0.2595. Looking at that half-penny slip in VWAP while buy:sell is so strong indicates that sellers are still nervous while buyers are decidedly bullish about the risk:reward at these price levels. Maybe some price context will help. Note the predominance of the price >= $0.26.

    $0.2540-$0.2546: 022700 shares, 04.07% of volume, VWAP $0.2545
    $0.2550-$0.2599: 172600 shares, 30.93% of volume, VWAP $0.2578
    $0.2600-$0.2624: 346001 shares, 62.01% of volume, VWAP $0.2600
    $0.2650-$0.2659: 015898 shares, 02.85% of volume, VWAP $0.2656
    $0.2660-$0.2660: 000755 shares, 00.14% of volume, VWAP $0.2660

    In a comment yesterday, http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion-power-host/1890011-axion-power-concentrator-239-may-24-axion-power-reports-first-quarter-results-for-2013#comment-19339131, I wondered if there might be a larger buy order associated with the AH trade. However, looking at the prices above I don't see it would work as the market-maker would be selling to the buyer at a price lower than that at which the market-maker could accumulate. It's still possible if the MM accumulated over a few days, but I don't know the likelihood of that. It was also larger than what I would think is acceptable to try and manipulate price. I'm left with the conclusion that the most plausible cause is what MrI suggested - someone with a larger stake is unloading ATM.

    This seems supported too by a generally small, but noticeable, sporadic jump in some "Dly Sht % of 'sells'". For a month now we've had generally elevated daily short sales and some larger values in the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'":
    Mon. 04/22: 0.42% 4.90% 690.95% 39.86% 22.22%
    Mon. 04/29: 5.98% 14.04% 17.33% 13.58% 150.50%
    Mon. 05/06: 9.96% 9.15% 114.65% 53.10% 39.36%
    Mon. 05/13: 33.94% 54.27% 29.90% 61.57% 104.44%
    Mon. 05/20: 92.10% 132.60% 34.23% 55.97%

    For context:
    Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 262.58%
    Feb Avg: 20.90%, min: 2.88%, max: 55.65%
    Mar Avg: 15.42%, min: 0.00%, max: 100.79%
    Apr Avg: 40.63%, min: 0.00%, max: 690.95%
    May Avg: 63.06%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%

    The averages are not at alarming levels, meaning the "big uglies", or a reasonable facsimile thereof, are back in our markets, but this month's average is well above recent levels.

    I noted in a comment, IIRC, that we had more large trades today. There were 17 >= 10K that comprised 69.38% of today's volume with a VWAP of $0.2597 with a range of $0.2550 (excluding the AH $0.2546) to $0.2601.

    I don't think the sellers realize how much they might be giving up here. Oh well, nervousness is a common affliction.

    Thanks to the larger blocks, average trade size is in the higher mid-range of what I believe is retail, a nice change from recent sizes. The averages for the buy:sell are looking quite nice. If the ratio holds up today we'll have an ordered progression of the averages, shorter higher than longer. All are back into normal ranges now.

    My original inflection point calculations are beginning to shape up. Five of the six periods are showing a one-day improvement and with three of the five-day changes showing improvement. This hasn't passed through to the average daily change over five days yet though - only 2 show improvement. This is not surprising as we've just begun what may be a sustained improvement ... or not, based on recent behavior.

    My newer version has only four of the six periods showing a one-day improvement and the change over five days has only one improving and the average change over five days has only two improving. Because this version considers additional factors, I think it is more likely telling the truth. I think we've gone from "nowhere fast" to slight weakening indicated. However, if we maintain good volume and buy:sell with little or no price weakening, this tendency will reverse.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    05/24/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 49, MinTrSz: 131, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol 161897, AvTrSz: 3304
    Min. Pr: 0.2602, Max Pr: 0.2690, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2646
    # Buys, Shares: 24 61509, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2657
    # Sells, Shares: 25 100388, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2639
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.63 (38% "buys"), DlyShts 56184 (34.7%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 55.97%

    For the second day in a row we had an AH trade, 6K, below the close. Manipulation is suspected. See this comment.

    Average trade size continues to sit at the bottom of the barrel with the advent of the more active market-makers. I don't believe price is going anywhere fast while this condition holds. However, combined with the extremely low volume, it does present an opportunity for those that would like to manipulate price in either direction. I believe this because I think these small trade sizes indicate many fewer "normal" trade fills of size that would force market-makers to help maintain some price range that allowed them to fill larger orders and, thereby, make some money, as volume is their bread and butter. Sans the volume and with small trade sizes, a few orders of "size" away from the prevailing price range would entice the market-makers to move price to get the volume going.

    The buy:sell remains in normal ranges and all the averages are there as well.

    The daily short sales, on a percentage basis, look like they are working towards settling into ranges I believe are more normal, possibly leaving in the past the extremely low values seen recently. Having said that, if we see our recent more active market-makers exit stage-left, the percentages (likely?) would plummet back to single-digits unless some reasonable volume returned, and even that might not do it, depending on from where (which MMs?) the volume comes. But for now all the averages are moving towards what I think are normal, with the 10-day already in that area at 30.75%.

    VWAPS are still holding up well, and might even be migrating towards the longer-term averages, albeit quite slowly. The 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200-day averages are, respectively, $0.2612, $0.2548, $0.2498, $0.2602, $0.2908 and $0.2910.

    My original experimental inflection point calculations continue their uncoordinated behavior. The one-day change has three periods improving and three deteriorating. The five-day change shows two improved and 4 deteriorated while the average rate of change in those have a three and three split. In summary, going nowhere fast and not indicative of overall weakening or strengthening. My newer version, which includes additional factors, also has the one-day change split three and three. The five-day changes in the periods has only one period showing improvement while five show increasing weakness. The average rate of change of those five-day periods has a split of 2 and 4 strengthening to weakening. The same summary - nowhere fast - applies.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above..

    05/23/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 32, MinTrSz: 250, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 114349, AvTrSz: 3573
    Min. Pr: 0.2550, Max Pr: 0.2690, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2644
    # Buys, Shares: 23 84950< VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2660
    # Sells, Shares: 9 29399, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2599
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.89:1 (74.3% "buys"), DlyShts 33000 (28.86%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 112.25%

    An AH trade of 5,100 shares at $0.26 doesn't appear on the FINRA daily short sales. Excluding this volume would yield a short percentage of 30.21%. If those shares are included and are also short sales the percentage short becomes 33.32%.

    Note that VWAP made a nice bump up. This appears due to the sellers becoming much more disciplined as the number of changes to the ask price was substantially reduced from what is normally seen. From 11:13 through the close, the ask seemed to stay at or above $0.2689. But I didn't take near as many peeks today as normally. This seems to have caused a constant move up in the bids throughout the day during the times I took a look. This occurred with ATDF and NITE, two of our long-time "usual suspects" being at the front of the offers at the times I looked. A refreshing change.

    Average trade size remains depressed, in the lower range of what I believe is retail trading. Regardless, the buy:sell was very positive, continuing to demonstrate what I believe is a perception of favorable risk/reward at these prices by the buyers. The action of the sellers makes me think that some of them may be changing their thinking too - I suspect that now they lean towards holding out for higher prices since the risk seems reduced. Maybe, I don't really know. Regardless, the buy:sell averages have all migrated back to near-normal levels and continue to move in that direction.

    All six of my original experimental inflection point calculations showed one-day improvements. Four showed improvement in the change over five days. Four also showed improvement in the average rate of change over five days. The five-day calculation ha crossed above zero, but we know that one's a bit flaky and wee need to wait for the longer-term ones to improve enough to make "the pattern". My newer version has all six showing one-day improvement and, as with the original, the five-day calculation has moved above zero. But the change over five days has only four improving and the average change over five days only has two improving while four have deteriorated.

    It's the falling volume that prevents signaling a bullish move right now.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    05/22/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 39, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol 167469, AvTrSz: 4294
    Min. Pr: 0.2520, Max Pr: 0.2650, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2598
    # Buys, Shares: 17 74100, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2612
    # Sells, Shares: 21 90869, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2586
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 2500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2620
    Buy:Sell 1:1.23 (44.2% "buys"), DlyShts 31100 (18.57%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 34.23%

    My first note is regarding daily short sales because I don't want to overlook an apparent correlation. Our newer group of MMs were at the top of the heap on the ask much less frequently than in the recent prior days. ARCA and LAMP were in the best ask group only 4 times out of 13 peeks at the ask. ARCA had been best ask much more frequently in prior days. Today our old friends were ore commonly at the top, notably ATDF and CSTI. I think this gives credence to the guess that the increase in daily short sales were directly related to the new group of MMs and that the normal "players", for whatever reason, have a very low rate of daily short sales. My gut says ATDF takes short-term long positions and the other common market-makers are owned by brokers which hold the shares being sold. Both cases reduce the short flagging required by rule.

    Another thought I draw from this is when we see these "other guys" show up, we can infer that there is some heavier selling possible. The hard fact is that a short sale flag can only be generated by the sale of stock.

    Considering this, I think it is remarkable that price has held up so well and the buy:sell has been so much more normal than what we had been seeing. I think this implies that at these price levels the perception of value, and a good risk/reward scenario, is strong. If today is the first day of the recent sellers being out, not just taking a break, we might be pleasantly surprised shortly.

    On to the mundane ...

    With the "normal" MMs being predominate yesterday, average trade size was able to recover to what I believe to be the lower-middle range - another change to watch for depending on the presence of the newer group of MMs. The buy:sell also weakened a bit, but is still in the normal range. An early conclusion is that our "normal" MMs, keep the buy:sell skewed to the low side, for whatever reason. If they stay gone for a long period, I expect the averages for the buy: sell will move into a range below 30% again.

    Given the above, I wouldn't be surprised to see the buy:sell continue to weaken, accompanied by a weakening in price. I can't say I feel fairly certain, but things do seem to suggest it is likely.

    7 of the bid changes I spotted were increases and 8 were decreases (some "uncovered"). 4 of the asks increased (most "uncovered") and 7 were decreases. Concomitant with the exit of our new group of MMs, we seem to have lost some of our bullish behavior as the old group of MMs play their usual games.

    My original experimental inflection point calculations seem to be gently trending, with time, to a slightly positive bias, away from the weakening slant. The one-day change on five of the six periods was positive and the five-day change had five of six positive too, as were the daily percentage average change for these. My newer version is quite contrarian though: five of six periods show a weaker one-day change with the five-day change have five weaker as well. The average percentage change for these has six of six weaker.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    05/21/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 64, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 24999, Vol 185758, AvTrSz: 2902
    Min. Pr: 0.2531, Max Pr: 0.2640, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2594
    # Buys, Shares: 38 108966, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2599
    # Sells, Shares: 20 65050, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2586
    # Unkn, Shares: 6 11742, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2592
    Buy:Sell 1.68:1 (58.7% "buys"), DlyShts 86259 (46.44%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 132.60%

    VWAP continues to hold up well. I listed a set yesterday, so I won't do it here gain. Interesting, to me, is an apparent correlation between a reducing average trade size as daily short sales remain elevated. I don't have clue about cause and effect, or which is which here, but maybe some mulling it over will yield something useful going forward. Later on that.

    The changes in bids I spotted today had 12 increases and 5 decreases (some were "uncovered"). The asks had 6 increases (some "uncovered") and 11 decreases. Having the buy percentage where it is with this sort of activity suggests, to me, that buyers are seeing a good risk/reward scenario here. If sellers recognized the same thing ...

    The average trade size is again very low and the daily short sales quite high, relative to levels over the last several months. The trend is remarkable and most easily discerned on the instablog chart. Part of the rise seen is due to using percentages. While trade volume declines but daily short sales volume remains relatively elevated, the percentage of short sales rises. This would seem to confirm a thought I expressed earlier, that the new cadre of MMs showing up were responsible for increased daily short sales, because before their appearance the percentage of daily short sales was relatively stable for quite a few months.

    Knowing, generally, how these things work, it may also suggest my thoughts that some MMs were going short-term long, for trading advantage and profit, or otherwise had control of shares backing sell orders (owned by the broker holding the shares?) may have been correct. We'll never know, I'm sure. But we can be sure that one or more of the MMs newly seen do not have control of the shares being sold, either through a long position or ownership by the holding broker. Because I've been tracking some of these for a while in my peeks at the bid and ask changes, we may be able to predict some changes in daily short sales trend in the future as these MMs become (in)active in our market.

    Possibly related is the change in the buy:sell ratio, which has been trending strongly up recently. This is also best seen on the charts, especially the buy percentage averages chart.

    Five of the six periods of my original experimental inflection point calculations had positive one-day changes. The five-day change of these was evenly split with three improving (25, 50 and 200-day) and three weakening a bit (5, 10, and 100-day) while the average change/day for those were also split. This indecision is reflected in the squiggles on the chart.

    My newer version has four of the six periods showing improvement in the one-day change and five of the six improving over a five-day period. The average daily change of the periods over five days showed improvement in five of the periods. Generally, my newer version is more bullish than the original version. I had mentioned a couple days back that it was in a state in which it could be easily induced to issue a signal of a move up. It remains so today. It is not signaling yet.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    05/20/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 98, MinTrSz: 0, MaxTrSz: 17593, Vol 355550, AvTrSz: 3628
    Min. Pr: 0.2510, Max Pr: 0.2615, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2575
    # Buys, Shares: 63 208050, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2585
    # Sells, Shares: 35 147500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2561
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.41:1 (58.5% "buys"), DlyShts 135850 (38.21%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 92.10%

    VWAP continues to hold up well: $0.2372, $0.2446, $0.2592, $0.2599 and $0.2575. The trend has been long-enough that it has begun to show in the 5, 10 and 25-day averages, while the longer term ones, the 50, 100 and 200-day have yet to be affected: $0.2517, $0.2506, $0.2490, $0.2634, $0.2918 and $0.2921. Note how the three shorter-term averages are "in order" with the 5-day above the10-day, which is above the 25-day. In conjunction with the buy:sell action, there may be an approach to a rise going on. The buy percentages for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages are showing a similar configuration: 48%, 0.44%, 0.38% and 0.42.

    The bid/ask movements showed bid changes having 9 increases and 5 decreases (some "uncovered"), and ask changes showing 10 increases (some "uncovered") and 9 decreases. I couldn't see any strong trend of "late-day weakness" or any other pattern to the moves.

    Average trade sizes continue to be down in the lower range of what I believe to be "retail" and I think is an effect of the entry of market-makers not commonly seen before the capital raise occurred: 5199, 4313, 4063, 3559, 4863, 4250, 5612, 4650, 4087 and 3628. This seems supported by the change in "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", which has moved higher recently, but nowhere near the levels of the heavy selling seen last year.

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
    Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%

    ============ 2013 ===============
    Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 262.58%
    Feb Avg: 20.90%, min: 2.88%, max: 55.65%
    Mar Avg: 15.42%, min: 0.00%, max: 100.79%
    Apr Avg: 40.63%, min: 0.00%, max: 690.95%
    May Avg: 56.17%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%

    I believe some of this recent increase is a "pull" effect where the prices remaining better than sellers might have expected, but not substantially improving, has caused them to make the decision to get while the getting is good. This would also account for the recent entry of market-makers not seen for a long time.

    Daily volumes, which spiked after the capital raise announcement, are trending towards the pre-announcement levels. The 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages are, in thousands: 485, 374, 298 and 300. Daily short sales continue in a range that I expect are more normal than the extremely low levels we observed for a long time. This has continued long enough to affect the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day average percentages: 27.75%, 18.73%, 12.12% and 11.86%. On 4/23 they were 4.62%, 5.33%, 7.5% and 10%.

    My original experimental inflection point calculations are, again, making another attempt at reduced weakening in their trends. Five of the six periods showed one-day improvement and the other, the 100-day, was unchanged, for all practical purposes. The five-day change in the periods had all showing improvement and the five-day rte of change of these had five of the six showing improvement. I do want to emphasize that these are only reductions in weakening, so far, and do not yet form the pattern that suggests an up move is imminent or in progress. It is a needed precursor though. My newer version, considering additional factors, has only two improvements in the one-day change, replicating yesterday's profile of being weaker than the original version. In the five-day change of these metrics, four are weaker, notably two of the three shorter-term ones. The five-day rate of change for these has five of the six weaker.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    05/17/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 64, MinTrSz: 160, MaxTrSz: 15000, Vol 261558, AvTrSz: 4087
    Min. Pr: 0.2500, Max Pr: 0.2640, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2599
    # Buys, Shares: 40 157799, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2613
    # Sells, Shares: 20 88760, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2573
    # Unkn, Shares: 4 14999, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2598
    Buy:Sell 1.78:1 (60.3% "buys"), DlyShts 92700 (35.44%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 104.44%

    Still holding up well. Prices and volumes, in thousands, for the last 10 days:
    $0.2609 211.23, $0.2588 129.98, $0.2513 1143.06, $0.2492 304.71, $0.2466 270.48
    $0.2417 778.10, $0.2372 590.69, $0.2446 0370.42, $0.2592 641.74, $0.2599 261.56.

    With no exceptionally large trades today and the VWAP where it's at, relative to the low and high, I think we are seeing more bullishness than we might have expected.

    I couldn't check as many bid and ask changes today but the activity there seems to be supporting a more bullish sentiment too. The bids increased eight times and decreased only four times. The asks increased seven times and decreased 5 times. The trend in trades was up through about 14:00 and then stayed flat until around 15:00, when some volatility came in and gave some increased highs, with lows staying right around those seen in the14:00 onward period. So we had early-day strength followed by late-day flat, mostly. Still a nice change from the long period of late-day weakness we used to see consistently.

    Of special note is the continuing improvement in the averages of the buy:sell ratio, in percentages. All 4 averages, 10, 25, 50 and 100-day periods, are back in normal ranges, 47%, 42%, 37% and 42%, as the daily trend is trending around normal percentages: 54.4%, 58.4%, 57.4%, 37.4%, 0.346%, 42.3%, 29.4%, 43.2% and 60.3%.

    Average trade size during this period of uncertainty has been low and continues low, with today's average trade size again in the low-mid-range of what I think is retail size. I'm beginning to think this is a normal side-effect of having more, and more active, participants, as evidenced by the cadre of newer market-maker participants we've seen. This reduced average trade size became more common with their appearance. This may be normal until we see another change in the market-makers participating, which might never happen. At some point I might have re-assess what is normal "retail" size.

    Daily short sale percentages continue to trend up. The 10-day average has "spiked" to 24.44% from single-digit range 3/13-4/24. My feeling is that as long as the "new" market-makers are here we'll see these elevated levels, possibly heading to the levels I mentioned in this comment in one of JP's blogs.


    However, I do believe we would have to see volumes consistently higher, along with continued higher numbers of market-makers participating, to get there. Sans that, I'm gravitating to somewhere in the ~30% range as reasonable and likely. When volume really comes in, then those higher percentages mentioned in my comment seem more likely.

    My original experimental inflection point calculations continue mixed, although they are turning a bit less negative right now. 4 of the six periods show a one-day reducing weakness, as do the 5-day changes in 4 of the six periods and the average rate of change for those metrics. My newer version, designed to consider additional factors, is slightly less positive one the one day change, although still in a state that could be easily induced to signal a move up. Only 3 of the 6 periods show a one-day improvement. The 5-day change in those periods has 4 improving along with 5 of the 6 average changes over the five days showing improvement.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    05/15/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 66, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 21600, Vol 370415, AvTrSz: 5612
    Min. Pr: 0.2390, Max Pr: 0.2500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2446
    # Buys, Shares: 20 108750, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2450
    # Sells, Shares: 46 261665, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2444
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.41 (29.4% "buys"), DlyShts 78250 (21.12%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 29.90%

    Of the 17 peeks I took at the bid changes, 7 were increases and 8 were decreases (some just results of being "uncovered"). This was less bullish than in the last few days. Of the 15 ask changes I viewed, 6 were increases (some due to "uncovering") and 7 were decreases, again much less bullish than the lat few days.

    Regardless, VWAP has held up: $0.2492, $0.2466, $0.2417, $0.2372 and $0.2446 over the 5-day span.

    Daily short sales is still a bit elevated, but somewhat lower. This seems to be due to less participation, as best I could tell, by the newer cadre of market-makers that appeared recently.

    Average trade size did move up again and is in what I believe is the mid-range of retail. Buy percentage dropped below it's averages again, supporting the less bullishness assessment of the bid/ask activity.

    All this is reflected in my original inflection point calculations, which weakened again, this time in six of six periods. 5 of the six periods increased weakness in the 5-day change and 6 of six had increased weakness in the average 5-day rate of change. However, the newer version disagrees with 5 of six periods showing a reduced weakness and 5 of six periods improving in the five-day change and six of six improving in the average change over five days.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    05/14/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 139, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 56300, Vol 590688, AvTrSz: 4250
    Min. Pr: 0.2210, Max Pr: 0.2510, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2372
    # Buys, Shares: 82 249868, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2422
    # Sells, Shares: 52 328820, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2331
    # Unkn, Shares: 5 12000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2473
    Buy:Sell 1:1.32 (42.3% "buys"), DlyShts 178460 (30.21%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 54.27%

    From 9:48's $0.221 onward, the trend was up all day. The 20 peeks I took at bid changes supported this behavior with 14 being increases and 6 being decreases (some via "uncovering" as better bids were taken out). As with yesterday, the offers responded, with some delay. Of the 17 offers I viewed, 10 were increases (some from being uncovered) and 6 were decreases. From 14:00 onward, only 1 offer was decreased while 6 increased and no bids were decreased. This continues what I noted yesterday, that "late-day weakness" had been replaced with "late-day strengthening".

    Although folks saw another low down at the $0.22 area, a little context should put it in proper perspective. Note that ~40% of the day's volume went at >= $0.24 on day's volume that was "healthy", approaching double the 25-day average I track of ~323K through yesterday.

    $0.2210-$0.2210: 066300 shares, 11.22% of vol, VWAP $0.2210 2 trades, 10K, 56K 9:36/7
    $0.2275-$0.2290: 006000 shares, 01.02% of vol, VWAP $0.2278 2 trades, 5k, 1K
    $0.2300-$0.2349: 189428 shares, 32.07% of vol, VWAP $0.2321
    $0.2350-$0.2390: 088700 shares, 15.02% of vol, VWAP $0.2368
    $0.2400-$0.2449: 111160 shares, 18.82% of vol, VWAP $0.2420
    $0.2450-$0.2499: 017600 shares, 02.98% of vol, VWAP $0.2470
    $0.2500-$0.2510: 111500 shares, 18.88% of vol, VWAP $0.2501

    We saw a 100K order today, this time on the bid from ATDF. There's apparently a lot of folks that see the financing completion and upcoming quarterly report as very bullish. It's a damn good thing because the pessimism of the inhabitants of the APCs would drive "the car company that shall not be named" into the ground. :-))

    Market-makers had to work hard again today because even with that 56K trade and a sprinkling of some 10K-20K+ trades, average trade size again came in at the low side of what I think is retail. The buy:sell continues to improve, today getting above the 50-day average and right in with the 25 and 100-day averages.

    The daily short sales continue at the elevated levels begun when the new cadre of more active market-makers appeared.

    Five of my six original experimental inflection point calculations showed increased weakness. The rate of change is is mixed among the periods with the 5, 10 and 200-periods improving and the others weakening. The near-term improvement may offer some hope. My newer version has 5 of the six periods worsening. However, four of the periods are showing a reduced rate of weakening, including the 10, 25, 50 and 100-period metrics.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    05/13/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 160, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 778100, AvTrSz: 4863
    Min. Pr: 0.2350, Max Pr: 0.2500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2417
    # Buys, Shares: 75 269478, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2419
    # Sells, Shares: 74 458222, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2415
    # Unkn, Shares: 11 50400, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2422
    Buy:Sell 1:1.70 (34.6% "buys"), DlyShts 155500 (19.98%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 33.94%

    Daily short sales are still relatively elevated, compared to recent months, and I expect they will continue as long as we have the unusual market-makers here. There's a possibility that they are here "forever", and short sales will remain elevated. But for now I think we are just in an exceptional period and the sellers using these market makers will eventually get exhausted and we'll likely see shorts reduce.

    Average trade size looks to be mid-range for retail and buy:sell is around the normal range again, but still lower than I would like to see - I suspect there's still some more selling to do, but maybe at falling volume now. This may help price hold in this range if my guess is correct. I didn't see any exceptionally large offers on the asks.

    A change in behavior has occurred - what used to be late-day weakness has become late-day strengthening these last two days. I suspect some of this is a result of ATDF having some competition from LAMP, UBSS, CSTI and CDEL on the bids. This apparently is noticed by (the now more astute?) sellers that come with the new market-makers in the fray as the peeks I take at the market aperiodically show a lot more increases on the asks than used to be seen. ATDF is no longer trying to jump ahead of every ask. Let's hope this newer behavior continues.

    I'm hoping that this dip lower with high volume is signaling the end of the downward pressure, which is one thing I mentioned I thought needed to occur before we could stabilize and then start moving up. I'm on shaky ground here with so much apparent negative sentiment though.

    It's as if folks didn't see the 8-K's restriction on selling (no more than 15% of daily volume) placed on the note holders if they take shares. Not quite as good as Quercus, but still it helps if they don't all convert and sell simultaneously. It's not a big positive, but it's better than a sharp stick in the eye.

    My original inflection point calculations continue mixed, not nearing any signal. They continue to suggest weakness, with a small increase in it. With the volume and lower buy percentage the last two days, this makes sense. My newer version is more decisive - everything agrees that weakness is dominant and not suggesting any reduction in downward movement yet.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    05/10/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 76, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 12500, Vol 270484, AvTrSz: 3559
    Min. Pr: 0.2401, Max Pr: 0.2500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2466
    # Buys, Shares: 32 101250, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2480
    # Sells, Shares: 43 168834, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2457
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 400, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2480
    Buy:Sell 1:1.67 (37.4% "buys"), DlyShts 66455 (24.57%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 39.36%

    Today continued to show activity by market-makers relatively new to us, as noted yesterday. The most aggressive on the offer side were ARCA and CSTI, with ATDF surrendering it's "We're # 1" position. ATDF did occasionally get in front, along with PERT and CDEL, but they were pikers compared to those first two. As might be expected, based on our recent observations of their effect on daily short sales, the short percentage continued to be elevated compared to recent norms.

    This apparently also affects average trade size - it's at a level I consider to be in the bottom area of retail size. The effect filters through to the share price as we continue a slow slide downward even with buy percentage being around normal ranges, as seen in the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages: 49%, 39%, 36% and 41% respectively. VWAP is pretty much following average trade size: $0.2609, $0.2588, $0.2513, $0.2492 and $0.2466.

    I am heartened that, apparently, buyers are seeing a good risk/reward here - I expected a bit faster slide downward with these new market-makers entering the fray. I will be looking for a volume spike on a down move as another potential reversal point, but I really don't expect it before the quarterly report. I suspect that VWAP is holding up as well as it has because of the possibility of good news in that event, although I've become more jaded on my outlook on those Axion events. If I don't hear presentations typical of "commercial enterprises", I'll be quite negative.

    My original experimental inflection point calculations gave back some of the gains on four of the six periods. My newer version also weakened - 5 periods weakened.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    05/09/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 75, MinTrSz: 160, MaxTrSz: 29400, Vol 304708, AvTrSz: 4063
    Min. Pr: 0.2451, Max Pr: 0.2592, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2492
    # Buys, Shares: 43 174978, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2503
    # Sells, Shares: 31 129380, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2477
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 350, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2540
    Buy:Sell 1.35:1 (57.4% "buys"), DlyShts 68700 (22.55%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 53.10%

    The first "bad sign" I want to note is the deterioration in average trade size: 7978, 5559, 5199, 4313 and 4063 - we are in the lower portion what I believe to be retail. This combined with the deterioration in VWAPs, $0.2563, $0.2609, $0.2588, $0.2513 and $0.2492 doesn't bode well going forward, near-term. Add in the continued higher levels of daily short sales - a significant increase from what we had been seeing - and I'm fairly pessimistic. A note about those short sales ...

    As mentioned recently, they seem to be associated with the appearance of some market-makers that had not been that active for some long time in the recent past. Our first spikes were 4/24 and 4/25 (0.4147% and 0.3185%), but don't seem related to a change in my observed market-maker composition - the "usual suspects" were doing the usual things. We then dropped back into recently-normal ranges. From 5/3 forward, we had a more frequent elevated levels: 41.42%, 05.17%, 04.17%, 47.22% and 22.55%. On that date we saw the 100K offers to sell come in (UBSS and later CDEL?) and two additional changes: some normally "quiet" market-makers that just sat on an ask, for the most part, began getting more aggressive at trying to be the best offer on the sell side; we saw some market-makers normally not seen recently enter the fray - some on both sides of the trade (suggesting increased short sales were more likely?). The changed behavior, more aggressive on the offer side, included such as CSTI, TEJS, UBSS (they had also been aggressive a couple times in past months), ... The "new entrants" included LAMP (mostly aggressive on the bid side), AABA and ARCA (both active exclusively on the offer?), ASCM and VFIN (seen infrequently before this). I feel that the new market-makers account for most of the short sales increase as we didn't see much variation often before they entered. I think they are handling shares for brokers that don't have their own market-maker, which would require short flags if the shares were held at the broker at the time the market-maker made the sale. Some additional volume may be from the market-makers that became more aggressive. We don't know, because of lack of aggressive activity in the past, if their sells would have resulted in short flags.

    A concerning thing at the moment is the change in the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" metric, which had been at very low levels since ... last August? Today the sequence looks like this - note the averages:
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
    Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%

    ============ 2013 ===============
    Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 262.58%
    Feb Avg: 20.90%, min: 2.88%, max: 55.65%
    Mar Avg: 15.42%, min: 0.00%, max: 100.79%
    Apr Avg: 40.63%, min: 0.00%, max: 690.95%

    The progression of the average through the first part of May might be concerning.
    May Avg: 17.33%, min: 17.33%, max: 17.33%
    May Avg: 15.45%, min: 13.58%, max: 17.33%
    May Avg: 60.47%, min: 13.58%, max: 150.50%
    May Avg: 47.84%, min: 9.96%, max: 150.50%
    May Avg: 40.10%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%
    May Avg: 52.53%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%
    May Avg: 52.97%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%

    Note that May is quite a bit higher than the recent trend. I don't expect returns to the ranges when we had the certificated holders selling, nor when we had the "big uglies", but I do think it's reflecting increased bearish sentiment in a cadre of holders that had not be actively selling over the last many months.

    Offsetting that apparent bearish behavior, so far, is the buy percentage behavior: 37.8%, 24.8%, 72.5%, 4.81%, 54.4%, 58.4% and 57.4%. This has resulted in improvements in the three shorter-term periods in my original experimental inflection point calculations, with the 5-day moving above zero. However, even the recent volume spikes haven't been sufficient to strongly positively affect the longer-term calculations, but for the 100-day. So they are not shaping up, yet, to signal any price improvement.

    My newer version, sensitive to additional factors, is similar in the three shorter-term periods, but does show improvement in two of the three longer-term calculations. They don't signal a move up, but suggest that the price deterioration rate is weakening.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    05/08/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 265, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol 1143057, AvTrSz: 4313
    Min. Pr: 0.2300, Max Pr: 0.2650, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2513
    # Buys, Shares: 178 667277, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2504
    # Sells, Shares: 88 460780, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2523
    # Unkn, Shares: 3 15000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.2575
    Buy:Sell 1.45:1 (58.4% "buys"), DlyShts 539744 (47.22%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 114.65%

    Rough day trying to keep up. Add in Etrade duplication of data, ADVFN dropping data, me trying to re-construct it all ...

    Just note the trade sizes and lower VWAP with reasonably balanced buy:sell. Mixed trader and investor reactions for sure.

    No further comment for now. I'll do it tonight. ... Tonight is here. Below not in the concentrator.

    The daily short volume and percentage are also notable at 539.7K and 47.22% respectively.

    The most notable things about today's action, besides the volume and daily short sales, was the number of market-maker IDs that popped up that were either new to me here or hadn't been all that active, in the recent past, some jostling for top position on the bid or ask. These included LAMP, who had recently appeared and been aggressive on the bid side, ASCM, CSTI (had recently been hanging around at prices far from the best), ARCA, PERT (a bit more aggressive than usual) and AABA (new here). I believe these appeared as a result of folks making decisions based on the capital raise to buy and sell aggressively based on their perception of the "goodness" or "badness" of the financing and the implications for business success moving forward. DOH!

    Based on the changes in the bids and asks during the day, many of the market-makers brought sellers with them that had shares held at the broker, which didn't own the market-maker making the trades. This causes a short-sale flag on each share sold under these conditions. As folks get out of their positions over the next few days, I expect to see the volume reduce, market-makers seen to return to the more-or-less normal "usual suspects", and the daily short sales to return to the recent very low levels.

    There will likely be a smaller volume and short spike in a few days as some folks trying to sell run for the fire exit after awaiting too high a price for the market sentiment.

    Of the 17 peeks I had at changed bid prices during the frenetic activity, 9 were bid increases and 6 were decreases (some due to "uncovering"). Of the 24 ask price changes, 14 were increases (many due to being "uncovered") and 9 were decreases. Both bids and asks were mixed in their trends, generally, varying in both directions throughout the day. It appeared that people were both bullish and bearish on the financing deal and resulted in a lot of trading without as much price variation as one might have expected.

    The average trade size, which dropped in to the lower-middle area of what I believe is retail trading, shows how hard the market-makers had to work and the frequency of sellers and buyers adjusting to the market. There were 265 trades, exceptionally high when compared to the 41 average of 4/1-5/7. If we take out the 174 of 4/29 (just prior to the supposed "close the doors" date), the average is 36.

    The buy percentage suggests some bullish sentiment is out there, but we don't know if it will be sufficiently enough long-lived to overcome the sellers with a move lower. We'll just have to watch as things develop of the next few days. There's also the risk that the buyers may recognize the sellers' desperation to exit and begin backing down the bids, creating a self-reinforcing feedback loop - a slow "death spiral". Let's hope that doesn't develop, although it has been typical behavior of our "usual suspects". Maybe the new players in the market will short-circuit that behavior.

    Speaking of "buys", the 25, 50 and 100-day averages are back in normal territory.

    Worth noting here, I think, is the spread between the low and the VWAP and high - these latter two be in close proximity to each other. I think this suggests that bullishness might be a bit stronger than the pure numbers suggest - maybe a break down of the ranges will reveal something.

    $0.2300-$0.2300: 010000 shares, 00.87% of volume, VWAP $0.2300
    $0.2350-$0.2399: 020000 shares, 01.75% of volume, VWAP $0.2375
    $0.2400-$0.2449: 266850 shares, 23.35% of volume, VWAP $0.2415
    $0.2450-$0.2499: 156397 shares, 13.68% of volume, VWAP $0.2478
    $0.2499-$0.2549: 280250 shares, 24.52% of volume, VWAP $0.2519
    $0.2550-$0.2599: 237610 shares, 20.79% of volume, VWAP $0.2573
    $0.2600-$0.2640: 179450 shares, 15.70% of volume, VWAP $0.2623
    $0.2650-$0.2650: 002500 shares, 00.22% of volume, VWAP $0.2650

    This appears to suggest that ~80% of buyers think >=$0.24 and <$0.26 is about right. It might also suggest that the sellers were not resolute in hanging tough for higher prices. As time passes, I suspect sellers may weaken a bit.

    On my original inflection point calculations, the degree of weakening is reducing. Nothing more positive than that ATM. On the newer version, it's telling what I believe to be the truth, because it has additional factors. It says there is continued weakening with little change in the rate, except for the 5-day calculation.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    05/07/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 25, MinTrSz: 1128, MaxTrSz: 12183, Vol 129978, AvTrSz: 5199
    Min. Pr: 0.2560, Max Pr: 0.2625, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2588
    # Buys, Shares: 13 70728, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2599
    # Sells, Shares: 12 59250, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2574
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.19:1 (54.4% "buys"), DlyShts 5424 (4.17%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 9.15%

    VWAP and volume, in thousands, since the 4/29 spike down:
    $0.2300 407.90
    $0.2585 301.63
    $0.2492 184.55
    $0.2563 183.50
    $0.2609 211.23
    $0.2588 129.98

    Average trade size is in what I think is in the lower middle of retail size, the buy:sell is balanced and the averages for it have moved back into normal range. Volume and daily short sales continue to return to recently-normal very low levels. VWAPs, lows and highs are at the levels where we spent some time running "flat". Awaiting the quarterly report, I wouldn't be surprised to see us run flat again, or make a small move down. Any traders that bought on the spike down that haven't yet sold should be releasing shares into the market as there have been buyers at higher prices at low volumes. The sellers have been somewhat disciplined, but I expect that will break down soon as the ATDF folks return to form, which they've begun to do recently.

    The peeks I took at bid/asks shows bid changes were 10:3 increase vs. decreases while asks were 6:4 in favor of decreases. The bid action was helped, again but briefly, by folks on LAMP, ATDF and NITE jostling, but it began later in the day and was of shorter duration than the prior days where this was seen.

    My original experimental inflection points gave back the small gains - not surprising with the volume and little price movement. So they don't portend anything of note ATM. The newer version is a bit more negative with all periods showing weaker values and the 5-day average changes showing weakening improvement and the 5-day period actually going slightly negative on the average change.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    05/06/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 38, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 13200, Vol 211234, AvTrSz: 5559
    Min. Pr: 0.2550, Max Pr: 0.2698, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2609
    # Buys, Shares: 16 101610, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2623
    # Sells, Shares: 22 109624, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2596,
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.08 (48.1% "buys"), DlyShts 10924 (5.17%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 9.96%

    Not a bad day. VWAP +1.8% and average trade size right in the middle of retail, and flattening as expected, with no excessively larger trades. Volume was a bit on the light side - not unexpected as we wait for the usual and for a certainty of direction in price. Volume is lower than the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages of 318K, 270K, 229K and 292K respectively.

    The buy:sell continues to recover into the normal ranges and the daily short sales has dropped back into the lower ranges seen recently, suggesting that one more "mini-ugly" selling through CDEL(?) is (almost?) out - we think there was 22K left (may not have been tied to the seller of the 76K the prior day?) and today we saw $0.27x20K that never moved. The buy averages continue the march towards more normal levels as well: the 10-day is up around the 50% mark and 25 and 50-day average should be inside 35% in another week or less, if current behavior continues.

    Of 18 bid changes I happened to catch, 11 were increases and 5 were decreases. Keep in mind some of these are just bids being masked and unmasked by activity with better bids coming and going. Of the 11 asks, 5 were increases and 5 were decreases. So the buyers seem to be getting more positive the last few days and the sellers are now starting to become more stingy.

    My original experimental inflection points are really trying to form a signal, but lack the volume, The five and ten-day calculations are quite near crossing above zero, but the lack of volume leaves the longer-term calculations in the dumps, with only the 25-day beginning to respond. The trend to "form up" is there, but needs volume along with the trend in price. My newer version, sensitive to some additional factors, is, again, more positive than the original. All periods are moving "the right direction" for now.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    05/03/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 23, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 31000, Vol 183500, AvTrSz: 7978
    Min. Pr: 0.2500, Max Pr: 0.2598, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2563
    # Buys, Shares: 16 133000, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2584
    # Sells, Shares: 7 50500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2505
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.63:1 (72.5%), DlyShts 76000 (41.42%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 150.50%

    The most notable thing, I think, about today is what I noted in a comment: "Today's daily short sales were 76K, 41.42% short, exactly the amount that the seller at CDEL offering the 98K unloaded - 22K more to go ... if they don't have more they were holding back to try and avoid affecting price too much". They were all "buys", with trades hitting the ask. We don't often get to see so clearly exactly where daily short sales action is coming from and correlate it to the offers and trade prices.

    BTW, that 98K offer was originally entered at an optimistic $0.28 along with 9K from ETRF. Sometime between 10:31 and 11:14 that 98K ask was changed to $0.259 and left there.

    There were no excessively large trades today, although we had a couple in the 30K area accounting for 33.24% of volume. They went off, along with most of the other trades, above the middle of the day's range and so didn't really move VWAP excessively. They did have an effect on average trade size, because we only had 23 trades, and the buy:sell ratio.

    Without those two trades we get a maximum trade size of 20K and an average trade size of 5,883 - right in the middle of what I believe is retail and just above the 50 and 100-day averages of 5,332 and 5,684. The buy: sell would be 1.43:1, 58.8%, a decent number, especially compared to the prior two days percentages of 37.8 and 24.8. This ration has been improving enough that the 10-day average has moved back into normal range and the 25-day is heading there.

    I think all this suggests that investors and traders are gaining a little confidence that Tuesday's spike down was a near-term bottom and risk/reward, for traders and investors alike, was more favorable.

    All this was on a Friday, often a do-nothing day. Instead we got a VWAP move of +2.38% without those two larger trades and +2.83% with them. Definitely not a "do-nothing" day.

    My original experimental inflection point calculations are starting to shape up on the shorter periods, but we are working with low volume yet. For that reason, I view the slightly positive movements with a jaundiced eye for now. The newer version, which includes factors not in the original, is more positive and, I think, is near to signaling the start of a move up.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    05/02/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 32, MinTrSz: 250, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 184550, AvTrSz: 5767
    Min. Pr: 0.2410, Max Pr: 0.2600, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2492
    # Buys, Shares: 16 45700, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2575
    # Sells, Shares: 16 138850, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2465
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:3.04 (37.8% "buys"), DlyShts 18850 (10.21%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 13.58%

    I had mentioned somewhere that I thought we had a few traders in and it would take a few days for them to exit. I think I mentioned that it looked like most of the recent "mini-uglies" were gone too. Today seems to support those conclusions. Our one large ask was from CDEL, $0.28x98K. It was well out of the trading range and had no impact. Our only larger trades occurred near the open, $0.2410x50K at the open and $0.2500x33K at 9:33. Both were "sells".

    These two trades were 81.7% of the day's volume. They had very heavy effect on the metrics for the day. I mention a couple of those affected below.

    Of the 21 peeks at the bids, 12 were increases and 9 were decreases. Of the 17 asks, 7 were increases and 9 were decreases. As mentioned before, some of this movement comes just from one price level getting exhausted, uncovering prices at another level when trading occurs. What is interesting is that the asks showed weakness in the morning and had more increases starting at 13:30 - 5 of 7 subsequent changes were increases of the ask. Bids were similar with 9 of 11 bid changes being increases subsequent to 12:45. With VWAP very near the mid-point of the price range, a close at the high ( a real trade too of 3,250 shares, not just a "lure") and late-day strengthening, I think this also supports the thesis that the "mini-uglies" are mostly gone and there are some traders that are taking some profit.

    Average trade size finished right at the 100-day average size and seems to be flattening out, as I recently mentioned I though it should. It's smack-dab in the middle of what I believe to be "retail" trading sizes. Without those two larger trades, we get 3,385 - very low and at the bottom of "retail" I think. Buy: sell was influenced by those two trades as well - it's "decent", even with those two larger "sells".

    Without them we get 1:1.22 (45% "buys") and VWAP would move to $0.2530.

    Daily short volume and percentage seems to be continuing its retreat to levels John noted had become the new normal. This also suggest the exit of at least one "mini-ugly" was real because when we (apparently) know he was selling we had spikes in the short volume. My SWAG was that his shares were sold through a market-maker not controlled by the broker holding the shares, forcing flagging as "short sales". With that seller having stated he was exiting, it appears his word was good. I believe he was representative of the other "mini-uglies".

    In summary, I believe after a few more days of traders taking profits, there's a really decent chance that the investors can take control and move price to the next level before the quarterly results, bringing in the next round of profit-takers, if there are any.

    "The Never-ending Story".

    My original inflection point calculations are still in disarray and, with the effect of those two larger trades, behaving as we would expect - a bit weaker. Ditto on the new version. But I wouldn't assign any significance yet because the VWAP and volume without those two trades would be so much different.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    05/01/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 44, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 26466, Vol 301628, AvTrSz: 6855
    Min. Pr: 0.2400, Max Pr: 0.2795, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.2585
    # Buys, Shares: 21 114097, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2610
    # Sells, Shares: 23 187531, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2570
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.64 (37.8% "buys"), DlyShts 32500 (10.77%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 17.33%

    Well, things are starting to normalize: no outrageously large trades today; only one large offer seen (CDEL ask $0.28x98K entered around 13:00); average trade size (even with no really large ones) is right at the middle-high range of what I think is retail and the trend should start to flatten out from its rise now; buy:sell starting to work more consistently in normal ranges; daily shorts a little higher than recent trend, but not excessively so; volume is moving back closer to recent norms.

    Interesting: the high was exactly at the 50-day SMA; the mid-range of the day was $0.2598, the VWAP and our close ($0.261) both near there, normal behavior in many ways; of 13 bids checked during the day there were 7 increases and 3 decreases while the 20 asks checked included 4 increases and 15 decreases (started at 10:28 and continued predominately down throughout the day - very normal behavior); two consecutive days of higher highs and lows; closed above my medium-term descending resistance - another close above would confirm a break out, especially if volume remains near recent norms.

    My original inflection point calculations are in disarray, but showing the ending of weakening. My newer version is giving signals that there is more than that going on - the earliest hints that a move up may be in progress have appeared, but it will take a few days to see if the pattern completes.

    Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    Disclosure: I am long AXPW.

    Additional disclosure: I am very experimental, still learning TA and am not very conservative in my trading. But I am conservative regarding my confidence in what I'm learning and my attempts to share with others what I think I see coming. Your own DD is mandatory.

    Stocks: AXPW
Back To H. T. Love's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (8)
Track new comments
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (1273) | Send Message
    ゙(゚、 。 7
     l、゙ ~ヽ
     じしf_, )ノ
    2 May 2013, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18896) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Ah! ASCII art recalls the old days when I knew a lot more than I do now!


    That's a really cute one!


    2 May 2013, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
    HTL, Lately I've noticed that the ask is often 2500 shares but unlike in the past when you hit the ask they give you the 2500 shares and move the ask up. To me they are like market test samples whereas in the past they often hid larger blocks behind a smaller "show". The other thing I'm seeing is when the ask is falling someone is using a less normal 3500 share block to walk the ask down. Here again, if you hit the ask they only fill the 3500 shares and move the ask up. I've personally tested this a couple times because it's so different compared to past mm behavior.


    Friday in the concentrator I indicated my buys with the first ones being purchases of 2500 shares each from this entity as they moved the ask up. Then I purchased 30k shares at .27 before the mm's went back to their normal pattern and others (retail?) started jumping into the fray.


    Anyway, Sometimes I'll do little tests like this to get a feel for what's going on (hey I'm bored). Thus far the ability to gather shares looks like it's going to be very difficult without causing upward pressure to some new normal range. Perhaps this will change once Axion dispenses their first round of shares to the new buyers?


    Anyway, Thanks as always for your efforts here. It's very much appreciated.
    2 Jun 2013, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18896) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Iindelco: I believe what you describe is less-automated (or maybe just smarter?) market-making by our new entrants, ARCA, CSTI, LAMP, ... as compared to ATDF, UBSS, CDEL (although I'm sure CDEL and NITE are no dummies at this).


    It's pretty-much "standard" procedure to "walk the price up" via this sort of behavior and is one of the reasons we are told we benefit from "standard" blocks rather than the true quantity behind the orders - large blocks might "move the market". NEWS FLASH! They move the market anyway exactly as you describe.


    What I don't know is if there are limiting factors related to underlying customer orders or not. If there are no underlying orders, or if there are no limiting factors, the MMs can behave any way they like. There are requirements about displaying customer order quantities in place, with a gazillion exceptions of course, but I don't recall any details except that under certain conditions the actual customer order quantity is to be displayed.


    I think you've made a good catch in noticing that behavior - from down in the mud where I'm at I may *never* have noticed it.


    As to the 3.5K that may be just one of the requirements related to presenting customer order quantity when an odd lot is involved? I don't know, but I could see a standard present of 2.5K and there's an odd-lot order for 1K that must be presented? I'd have to really go digging and may still not get the answer.


    Hm, I wonder if there's mostly limit or market orders behind these MM actions? I wonder if that influences it? We'll never know, I'm sure.


    One thing I am sure of is that we have more customer shares that are outside the MMs' control flowing through the system, as indicated by the increase in average daily short sales.


    Thanks for bringing this to my attention. I hope I can take advantage of it to benefit us all somehow.


    2 Jun 2013, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (10233) | Send Message
    HTL, One thing I can tell you is that any time I enter an order in Axion the full order volume is displayed. I have played with ABAT, as one example of late just for some entertainment, and any time I enter an order there and I'm on the bid or the ask the mm only shows a "1". Even if it's 5k, 10k or 12,532 shares they display a "1" and it sits there until it fills or someone jumps in front. I have never seen AXPW display any partial show when I'm on the bid or ask over the 2+ years I've been investing in it.


    Oh, One other new thing I've seen here. When I was placing bids over the last few weeks, as the highest bid, our 2500 share friend would quickly jump in front (not computer program quick though it would appear). If someone sold more than 2500 shares they would often just sit there unless the volume picked up. Also if I raised the offer to attempt to stay in front they would eventually join me on the bid with their 2500 share offer but again gather all the shares in front of me even if they well exceeded the 2500 share "show". This again until the volume picked up. Then they might step out of the way. I'll not say I have never seen this before but it's been a new overwhelming theme the last 2-3 weeks. Just different but I'm sure it has to do with the new mm's you've pointed out.


    Anyway, As I've suggested, I do things like this on occasion when I feel a shift in strategy has occurred with the mm's. It certainly has in the last few weeks and while I can't prove it, they are making it hard at times to acquire shares. I think our 300k buyers "spidey senses" have a high probability of being correct and I know from your updates you can feel a change in the air as well.


    Oh well, more fodder for you to chew on. Keep up the good work!
    2 Jun 2013, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18896) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Iindelco: I've never used ABAT.


    The "shares they display a "1" and ..." is likely the MM code. If so, I understand that because NASDAQ provides the OTC platform and all bids and asks have a single code (used to be something else, but changed and now I believe it's a "1" - I'll check Monday) and the trades all have another code.


    As to the quantities, I'm thinking that different platforms and/or market-makers may behave differently, depending on what the rules allow and the sophistication/program... of the MM's systems and ...?


    This *seems* a rational thought because of the change you've already mentioned - used to be that tons were stacked up behind a 2.5K presentation and now it *appears* that's not the case. But we know the tons might still be there but they could be presenting only the "standard" and then feeding the others in as portions get taken. Price could be higher, lower or the same.


    I do know of one facility that would support partial presents that is in the end-user's control. On ETrade it's "Reserve Quantity". It says only present a maximum of xxxx at a time. This is good on larger quantities (>= 10K? I forget ATM). Other platforms might have a different name for it.


    If I entered orders on ETrade and Etrade didn't route it, I also saw my full quantity. But ETrade, and some others I'm sure, can route the orders elsewhere and I can't recall if I was able to detect my orders in those cases or not. There were times my order never appeared on L2 with ETrade but I got filled anyway. They don't always route. Theoretically they are routing elsewhere to get the best price or execution. But back when Citadel (CDEL) had a big stake in ETrade there was a kerfuffel (Heh! Spell check wants to make that "Garfunkel" - old school folks there!:-) about the fact that routing to CDEL was forced as part of the agreement.


    That agreement is no longer in place.


    2 Jun 2013, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18896) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » I'll be doing an new instablog for 6/1 start date, the stub of which is here.




    I'll post a comment when it's ready.


    2 Jun 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18896) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » The header of my new instablog, linked in the prior comment, has been updated.


    The chart is from Friday and there's no daily commentary yet - should load quickly! :-)


    2 Jun 2013, 03:43 PM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.