Full index of posts »
StockTalks

AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 12/01/2014 $AXPW http://seekingalpha.com/p/237ad Nov 29, 2014

(UQM) Short Interest Table $UQM http://seekingalpha.com/p/233uh Nov 27, 2014

Because This Is The Only Way I Can Get Charts Into My Real Blogs ... $AXPW http://seekingalpha.com/p/22tij Nov 22, 2014
Latest Comments
 H. T. Love on A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 7/25/2016 AFAIK "cashless exercise" has the nas...
 H. T. Love on A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 7/25/2016 "Did I miss that piece?"Not that I sa...
 Crunching Numbers on A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 7/25/2016 HTLThanks for the link... Is there something I...
 Crunching Numbers on A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 7/25/2016 HTL"We'll never know why I guess."Or...
 H. T. Love on A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 7/25/2016 There was one good thing: "Certain of the ...
 H. T. Love on A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 7/25/2016 Just finished the article  you got the main po...
Most Commented
 A speculative play on UQM ( Comments)
 A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 ( Comments)
 Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator Nov 4, 2015 ( Comments)
 A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 7/25/2016 ( Comments)
 AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting ( Comments)
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 7/1/2013 8 comments
Beginning with this issue, I will be incorporating some inflection point calculations from my newer version along with the original. To help keep the instablog shorter, I'm removing some of the historical "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" entries, but will keep enough there to hopefully keep the context clear and helpful. I'm also going to shorten the amount of daily short sales history more than the normal onemonth to keep the size of this instablog even smaller.
Subsequent to my draft of this version of the instablog FocalPoint Analytics posted an important explanation of the financing arrangements under which Axion is laboring. If you have not read it YOU SHOULD IMMEDIATELY DO SO!
Axion share price is currently suffering under, apparently, the effects of a rather onerous, IMO, financing arrangement which may end up being highly dilutive. See the details of financing filing,
"29. CERTAIN DEFINITIONS", item (k) "Company Conversion Price" on page 36, (ii) "PreInstallment Conversion Price" detailed on page 43, and (xx) "VWAP" on page 45, all in the provided link, so that you can check my math. The VWAP determination may not match my calculations, although I would be surprised if it didn't.
Also keep in mind when you read the sections that these calculations can be overridden to a lower price.
The problem with the financing, IMO, is that the financiers cannot lose. In fact, over the long term if Axion is successful the financiers profit the greatest the more shares they own at a lower price, just as we would. They get a guaranteed lower price than we can get though. This provides an incentive for them to drive price as low as possible because the details of the financing deal give them shares at everdecreasing prices very likely at or below the thencurrent share price, which can be immediately sold (if they've not shorted already) into the market, driving the price even lower. Folks more knowledgeable than I have commented in the APCs on theses PIPE (Private Investment Public Equity) financing deals and the vultures they attract.
Possibly supporting my take on this is that just before the notice of effectiveness for the financing deal, on 6/4/2013 IIRC, we had a big jump in the semimonthly short reports for 5/15/2013, 5/31/2013 and now 6/14/2013. The first one, 5/15, didn't cause me much concern because it could be just normal MM daily shorts, as explained here. The 6/14 volume, 1,187,574, also didn't cause me much concern, but only because of the daily shorts reported during that timeframe, mentioned in this comment. Some discussion of my thoughts about all this are in a comment on my instablog.
Some folks, based on the prohibitions mentioned here against a net short position, may think that shorting buy the financiers is not allowed. Please note the distinction between "short position" and "net short position". My take is that hedging their long positions by going short would not violate the prohibition. Since their will be a bias towards downward price pressure anyway until "big news" emerges, I think that shorting for both hedging and driving price down will occur to allow accumulation of a greater number of shares by the financiers
With all this in mind, I added a line to my daily EOD postings in the APC that shows my estimated next issue price if it went off that day. I also show a bit of its history so that the progression (regression?) trend can be seen.
The last thing I want to mention related to this is the fails to deliver. I had been expecting this to show increased activity and it did. I'm quite interested, in light of the increased semimonthly short report volumes, to see if this becomes a trend or not, especially in the periods around new share issuance. There's a link below to that instablog, which is updated about every two weeks as new data becomes available. Unfortunately, the data is available too late to be of much use other than for confirming or debunking my suspicions.
From the prior instablog, there were a couple of items that merited mention at that time. The first no longer applies, I'm pretty sure, because of the financing share issuance issues I mentioned above.
The first is a comment that an Axionista requested be posted anonymously that detailed that person's difficulty in buying shares. Rather than repeat it here, follow this link to the comment describing the difficulty of acquiring 300K shares of (NASDAQ:AXPW). In summary, a late day buy order above market was only a little over half filled the first day and took close to an hour to complete filling the next morning.
This comment was particularly interesting to me because I had been posting for some number of days prior that the sellers were "too easy", constantly displaying a lack of discipline, which if corrected would result in better prices to the sellers. This was my judgment based on my close observation of intraday bid, ask and trade behavior for more than 16 months now.
Whether it was coincidence, the anonymous comment, my cajoling about lack of discipline, or a combination of those, there was an immediate appearance of change in bid, ask and price behavior on 5/31. See the 5/31 daily commentary contained in the "Beginning 5/1 ..." instablog linked down in the "boilerplate" below.
The other thing of note is the change in daily short sales. My feeling is that we can't see any real sustained price appreciation without "normal" marketmaking activity and the volume (liquidity) that should accompany it. When we have those, we have the possibility of sustained trends, both up and down, giving us the "waves" necessary for traders and investors to have confidence in the risk/reward profiles, permitting them to enter the market with the hope of doing well.
For some time we did not have "normal" marketmaking, as detailed when John Petersen posted back in January about a big drop in the daily short sales starting back in November of '12. Interestingly, this was about the same time we all thought the "big uglies" were exhausted and I also posted that I thought we might be starting a move up. Go figure!
I mention the following as a possible counterpoint to my thoughts that without "normal" marketmaker activity we can't get much price appreciation. OTOH, what we got may certainly not qualify as "appreciable", being we only got to $0.3710 VWAP (1/14/13) from $0.2352 VWAP on 11/2. A nice percentage rise, certainly, but not a "big" move in absolute terms.
In my 11/27 post in AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 11/14/2012 I said "Looking at my experimental inflection point calculations gives me a warm fuzzy feeling. The trend suggested beginning around the 12th is apparently coming to fruition and gaining strength. Let's hope it's not just another fewdays "blip" up followed by a retreat. I think not because the move has been long and strong enough to move all, including the newly added 200day calculation, into an upward attitude". In the 11/13 entry in AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting I said "If my original inflection point calculations, and my interpretation of them, are valid we have a move up beginning. All the "correct" conditions exist: ...".
These examples may demonstrate that "normal" marketmaker participation is not needed. Regardless, another change has appeared ...
Beginning 4/22/2013, with the appearance in our market of some active marketmakers we'd not seen for quite a long time, the daily short sales began making a trend up towards the previouslyseen levels, as I suggested would eventually happen. As of this writing (6/22/13), the 10, 25, 50 and 100day average daily short percentages are 34.31%, 25.43%, 16.66% and 12.97%, respectively, and all are rising. Now this is not for egogratification, but rather because I'm always more comfortable when things behave as expected because it suggests that I have, indeed, managed to learn something during this long trek from complete ignorance. It will, combined with other things, give me the confidence to stick my neck out more frequently and, as well, get decapitated more frequently! :((
Regardless of the validity of daily short sales supporting John's thesis that the "big uglies" are out, his thesis is, IMO, valid and supported by AXPW Failstodeliver Charts 2/11/2013, with data through the 4/30/2013 period. The updated data is made available about every two weeks and I update my instablog's charts shortly after each update becomes available.
What follows is my normal boilerplate and the longtime readers can skip on down to the charts.
I've been manually collecting this data for a year now while volume was low and it was therefore reasonable to do so. I'll stop when it gets too arduous unless I can craft a mechanized capture of most of the stuff.
I've captured enough data now that I can reasonably expect to be able to detect patterns on the charts that may signal, somewhat reliably, when price moves are about to occur. To help more easily identify any useful patterns, I've made an instablog, Axion Power International (AXPW) 2/13/2012 And Forward One Year Experimental Charts Snapshots. I've also added some lines to them that may assist in this. For anybody with an interest, I welcome any suggestions and/or help.
I'll update this instablog daily as long as I can for anybody that might find it useful. The charts will stay near the top and the text updates detailing daily data and expressing my most recent thoughts will follow after the charts.
I've arranged the chart segments in this instablog to put what I think are related stuff close together.
This is the eleventh installment of the original "AXPW: Some IntraDay Trade Charting" instablogs I've started doing on Seeking Alpha. The others grew, as I added daily commentary and FINRA data, to the point I was afraid the load time might become an irritant for folks that have less internet bandwidth or older computing equipment so I've started rolling to a new one aperiodically.
Versions subsequent to the original (latest to oldest) can be found here.
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 6/1/2013
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 5/1/2013
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 3/1/2013
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 02/01/2013
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 12/15/2012
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 11/14/2012
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting
AXPW: IntraDay Trade Charting 9/6/2012  Xx/xx/2012
AXPW: IntraDay Trade Charting 7/7/2012  9/5/2012
In the below chart note that the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!
(rightclick and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)
The following are modified inflection point calculations bracketing a price chart for comparison. Note that the false bullish moves and contrary moves of the 5day has been eliminated.
The two inflection points are calculated differently from each other and differently from the original above. More work to do, this is a start, hopefully.
I've identified some changes I want to try on the new inflection point calculations but haven't had time to implement them yet. I'll work them in over time after a little experimentation.
Comments and further suggestions welcome.
(rightclick and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)
Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point calculations values are now only in the latest daily comment  attempting to keep things shorter for faster loading.
07/31/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 65, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol 499310, AvTrSz: 7682
Min. Pr: 0.1680, Max Pr: 0.1748, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1714
# Buys, Shares: 33 270950, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1729
# Sells, Shares: 32 228360, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1697
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.19:1 (54.3% "buys"), DlyShts 170750 (34.2%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 74.77%
Daily short sales volume and percentage moved back to the range I consider "normal" in the longterm. This is good, IMO, and is consistent with past behavior after big spikes up in this metric. What will be interesting, to me, is where the low percentage gets to again over time. If the established trend holds, we should see no lower than ~10% nearterm. Longerterm I expect that to rise to around 15% or so, with some infrequent exceptions.
Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/26: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1555
07/29: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295
07/30: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295
07/31: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295
Vol, in K, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041.
Vol, in K, for above days: 921.83, 480.80, 499.31.
Yesterday I said "Notice we again have a shortterm flat 85% price. If we can hold a VWAP >= $0.1622, we can hold this 85% price tomorrow too". Well done crew! If it goes a bit longer, we'll see the 85% price improve. But we do have share issuance coming and the financiers may control the action.
With price and volume holding up well, maybe they will let it run a bit. Volume in thousands:
$0.1808, 477.76
$0.1622, 1141.07
$0.1555, 638.00
$0.1709, 921.83
$0.1690, 480.80
$0.1714, 499.31
On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1day change: 19.8%, 1290.1%, 15.5%, 0.4%, 1.7%, 2.4%
5day change: 14.2%, 20.4%, 10.5%, 41.6%, 4.0%, 181.2%
5day rate of change change: 19.9%, 24.4%, 25.0%, 41.4%, 11.0%, 530.9%
On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1day change: 3.9%, 5723.7%, 36.8%, 16.2%, 14.4%, 24.5%
5day change: 631.7%, 235.4%, 158.0%, 41.8%, 45.0%, 8.6%
5day rate of change change: 70.3%, 63.4%, 81.3%, 59.6%, 57.4%, 47.9%
On my original experimental inflection point calculations, the 10day period has dropped below zero again, as you might have suspected from the oneday change of 1290.1%. The 5day is still positive at 259.38 but is also weakening.
The newer version, incorporating other factors, is presenting a different shortterm picture with the 5 and 10day periods more positive than yesterday at 55.48 and 26.15. From the change readings above you can see that the newer version is telling a much more positive story than the original calculations. There's not a single negative change shown. I believe on this chart the indication is not just reduced weakening, but strengthening for the moment, because short, medium and longterm periods are all improving.
The buy:sell strengthened a bit today. It's in a completely normal range, as suggested by the averages, all also back into normal ranges.
Prior to the lateday weakening, which began at 14:10, we had an insane 4.5:1. Normally this can not hold and at 14:10 ATDF, ARCA and NITE took turns on lowering the ask from the $0.174x range down to $0.17. In less than twenty minutes the buyers saw the change and started lowering the bids from $0.1701/2 to as low as $0.169. Not a big change you say? Well, big in relation to what may have happened if the sellers had more patience.
Average trade sizes are in an up trend. Generally, the averages are back into the range seen before the financing took control and moved us rapidly down to the $0.13 price area, cutting the prefinance price approximately in half.
Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points omitted from the concentrator.
Rolling 5day ORIGINAL inflection point calculation aggregate percentage change (now abbreviated):
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
07/17 5 Day 0178.55 +0044.10 +0321.14 0603.88 0407.46 0049.69
07/18 5 Day +0238.33 0040.18 +0641.57 0351.42 0173.81 +0377.83
07/19 5 Day +0607.55 +0240.88 +0903.63 0494.30 0125.79 +0609.23
07/22 5 Day +0671.81 0000.39 +0711.22 0647.67 0204.20 +0190.08
07/23 5 Day +0445.73 +0122.39 +0281.40 0508.40 0181.77 0372.31
07/24 5 Day +0314.98 +0136.43 +0148.64 0300.08 0133.17 0655.44
07/25 5 Day +0442.02 +0680.35 +0373.91 +0093.17 0114.05 0668.20
07/26 5 Day +0451.28 +1058.82 +0934.08 +0598.88 +0143.61 0710.40
07/29 5 Day +0693.49 +1365.30 +1508.77 +0949.17 +0439.14 0462.95
07/30 5 Day +0643.66 +1089.39 +1403.01 +0751.91 +0406.55 0237.79
07/31 5 Day +0552.21 +0867.19 +1550.69 +0438.76 +0390.38 +0193.17
Average % change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
07/17 080.24 163.59 +158.03 107.95 074.04 +040.05
07/18 +103.37 174.40 +215.89 +001.09 +007.71 +154.48
07/19 +194.84 +011.45 +371.80 019.58 +055.28 +232.96
07/22 +268.80 +028.61 +301.01 030.21 +073.30 +103.70
07/23 +153.81 +011.39 +064.01 025.84 +063.46 067.42
07/24 +098.71 +018.47 034.50 +060.76 +054.86 121.15
07/25 +040.74 +144.11 053.53 +088.92 +011.95 209.21
07/26 031.25 +163.59 +006.09 +218.64 +053.88 263.93
07/29 +004.33 +273.14 +159.51 +319.37 +128.67 130.61
07/30 +039.59 +193.40 +224.32 +252.06 +117.66 +026.90
07/31 +047.45 +146.15 +280.41 +147.77 +104.71 +169.72
Rolling 5day NEWER inflection point calculation aggregate percentage change (now abbreviated):
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
07/17 5 Day +0020.33 +0075.61 +0281.69 +0267.90 +0529.04 +1325.10
07/18 5 Day +0084.24 +0079.64 +0400.68 +0428.67 +0764.43 +1876.07
07/19 5 Day +0155.49 +0149.67 +0569.65 +0585.90 +1113.01 +2739.53
07/22 5 Day +0198.55 +0171.77 +0671.65 +0843.23 +1559.67 +3640.08
07/23 5 Day +0166.37 +0203.34 +0439.16 +0652.94 +1209.03 +2525.97
07/24 5 Day +0075.89 +0101.05 +0163.95 +0161.24 +0378.42 +0560.04
07/25 5 Day +0024.87 +0038.15 0077.89 0299.62 0553.76 1321.44
07/26 5 Day 0010.79 +0016.47 0119.26 0457.11 0962.22 2324.28
07/29 5 Day +0093.52 +0167.57 +0167.53 0043.11 0323.40 1089.50
07/30 5 Day +0003.78 0015.54 0106.71 0575.44 1114.07 1336.78
07/31 5 Day +0027.63 +0021.04 +0061.90 0334.96 0612.25 1452.35
Average % change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
07/17 +0001.99 0008.83 +0097.08 +0097.86 +0167.19 +0440.59
07/18 +0028.51 0007.17 +0115.41 +0141.43 +0221.71 +0562.33
07/19 +0048.33 +0031.68 +0186.39 +0198.24 +0342.05 +0844.75
07/22 +0076.19 +0068.74 +0255.70 +0362.98 +0610.36 +1402.01
07/23 +0043.64 +0040.84 +0088.11 +0155.99 +0278.80 +0557.64
07/24 +0011.11 +0005.09 0023.55 0021.33 0030.12 0153.01
07/25 0011.87 0008.30 0095.72 0145.66 0263.64 0639.50
07/26 0033.25 0026.64 0137.78 0208.60 0415.05 1012.76
07/29 0021.01 0000.84 0100.83 0177.27 0376.61 0945.92
07/30 0032.52 0043.78 0109.17 0245.68 0464.62 0772.55
07/31 0009.65 0016.00 0020.41 0099.24 0198.13 0402.48
I encourage those with an interest to look at the charts and notice the prior patterns similar to the current one and the resulting price activity.
2013 Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
Mon. 01/07: 45.09% 77.18% 52.53% 36.35% 52.72%
Mon. 01/14: 27.99% 0.70% 48.48% 11.09% 11.21%
Tues. 01/22: 00.26% 23.79% 12.89% 8.36%
Mon. 01/28: 69.26% 42.03% 7.96% 0.00% 28.33%
Mon. 02/04: 17.36% 28.73% 18.53% 12.68% 39.65%
Mon. 02/11: 25.67% 5.99% 16.57% 17.04% 8.23%
Tues. 02/19: 19.57% 19.88% 10.17% 30.54%
Mon. 02/25: 2.88% 55.65% 28.57% 6.95% 0.28%
Mon. 03/04: 100.79% 18.46% 11.55% 21.97% 3.61%
Mon. 03/11: 25.81% 9.64% 1.35% 13.40% 0.00%
Mon. 03/18: 7.10% 5.65% 9.26% 25.15% 9.02%
Mon. 03/25: 1.47% 14.69% 4.15% 25.64%
Mon. 04/01: 4.74% 11.82% 19.85% 3.42% 0.59%
Mon. 04/08: 8.01% 9.51% 13.54% 0.00% 6.62%
Mon. 04/15: 2.68% 8.94% 5.64% 1.67% 18.45%
Mon. 04/22: 0.42% 4.90% 690.95% 39.86% 22.22%
Mon. 04/29: 5.98% 14.04% 17.33% 13.58% 150.50%
Mon. 05/06: 9.96% 9.15% 114.65% 53.10% 39.36%
Mon. 05/13: 33.94% 54.27% 29.90% 61.57% 104.44%
Mon. 05/20: 92.10% 132.60% 34.23% 55.97%
Tue. 05/28: 76.82% 109.81% 28.64% 150.02%
Mon. 06/03: 62.23% 62.24% 44.26% 98.99% 27.30%
Mon. 06/10: 26.26% 40.92% 28.42% 82.06% 81.55%
Mon. 06/17: 49.37% 57.96% 18.60% 26.64% 25.50%
Mon. 06/24: 43.95% 23.12% 22.40% 46.88% 15.07%
Mon. 07/01: 61.06% 35.37% 12.65% holiday 16.46%
Mon. 07/08: 67.49% 14.84% 30.80% 11.23% 29.49%
Mon. 07/15: 35.95% 61.87% 96.37% 16.17% 26.04%
Mon. 07/22: 41.69% 48.41% 56.32% 48.74% 18.16%
Mon. 07/29: 122.28% 52.08% 74.77%
=== 2012 ===
Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%
Then the MegaC shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.
Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.
Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%
============ 2013 ===============
Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 262.58%
Feb Avg: 20.90%, min: 2.88%, max: 55.65%
Mar Avg: 15.42%, min: 0.00%, max: 100.79%
Apr Avg: 40.63%, min: 0.00%, max: 690.95%
May Avg: 67.58%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%
Jun Avg: 47.48%, min: 15.07%, max: 98.99%
Jul Avg: 44.47%, min: 11.23%, max: 122.28%
0731 Vol 0499580, Sht 0170750 34.18% LHC 0.1680 0.1748 0.1700 b:s 1.19:1
0730 Vol 0480800, Sht 0144869 30.13% LHC 0.1651 0.1788 0.1666 b:s 1:1.37
0729 Vol 0911825, Sht 0416775 45.71% LHC 0.1580 0.1950 0.1750 b:s 1.70:1[78]
0726 Vol 0638003, Sht 0063020 09.88% LHC 0.1500 0.1600 0.1599 b:s 1:1.19
0725 Vol 1131068, Sht 0247450 21.88% LHC 0.1550 0.1779 0.1602 b:s 1.21:1[77]
0724 Vol 0477758, Sht 0103160 21.59% LHC 0.1750 0.1895 0.1771 b:s 1.58:1
0723 Vol 2043546, Sht 0497243 24.33% LHC 0.1700 0.1950 0.1820 b:s 1:1.01[76]
0722 Vol 0738566, Sht 0146751 19.87% LHC 0.1500 0.1700 0.1699 b:s 1.04:1
0719 Vol 0533630, Sht 0095825 17.96% LHC 0.1515 0.1580 0.1521 b:s 1:2.22
0718 Vol 0415591, Sht 0047883 11.52% LHC 0.1510 0.1590 0.1521 b:s 1:2.92
0717 Vol 0793295, Sht 0334605 42.18% LHC 0.1500 0.1650 0.1530 b:s 1.23:1
0716 Vol 0980658, Sht 0303752 30.97% LHC 0.1390 0.1750 0.1579 b:s 1:1.01
0715 Vol 1532199, Sht 0265900 17.35% LHC 0.1251 0.1380 0.1333 b:s 1.04:1
0712 Vol 0807313, Sht 0165375 20.48% LHC 0.1370 0.1476 0.1380 b:s 1:2.53
0711 Vol 0592400, Sht 0054050 09.12% LHC 0.1400 0.1540 0.1451 b:s 1:4.34
0710 Vol 0362587, Sht 0069013 19.03% LHC 0.1453 0.1685 0.1499 b:s 1:1.55[75]
0709 Vol 0350131, Sht 0042265 12.07% LHC 0.1550 0.1648 0.1552 b:s 1:4.35
0708 Vol 0783838, Sht 0215109 27.44% LHC 0.1512 0.1750 0.1550 b:s 1.33:1
0705 Vol 0160989, Sht 0022069 13.92% LHC 0.1500 0.1559 0.1539 b:s 1:4.97[74]
0703 Vol 0276423, Sht 0026025 09.41% LHC 0.1501 0.1674 0.1550 b:s 1:2.70
0702 Vol 0324355, Sht 0073805 22.75% LHC 0.1510 0.1650 0.1600 b:s 1:1.80
0701 Vol 0445474, Sht 0160033 35.92% LHC 0.1500 0.1675 0.1601 b:s 1:1.49
0628 Vol 0512780, Sht 0946477 09.06% LHC 0.1421 0.1550 0.1532 b:s 1:1.64
0627 Vol 1298856, Sht 0297000 22.87% LHC 0.1390 0.1579 0.1517 b:s 1.06:1[73]
0626 Vol 0898970, Sht 0145356 16.17% LHC 0.1400 0.1600 0.1599 b:s 1:2.50[72]
0625 Vol 0555717, Sht 0094600 17.02% LHC 0.1550 1.1700 0.1550 b:s 1:3.00[71]
0624 Vol 0598247, Sht 0145110 24.26% LHC 0.1620 0.1800 0.1699 b:s 1:1.39
0621 Vol 0808784, Sht 0146900 18.16% LHC 0.1700 0.1900 0.1740 b:s 1:2.78
0620 Vol 0735033, Sht 0146500 19.93% LHC 0.1850 0.1990 0.1871 b:s 1:3.22
0619 Vol 0295911, Sht 0043900 14.84% LHC 0.1900 0.1999 0.1980 b:s 1:4.11
0618 Vol 0187360, Sht 0065840 35.14% LHC 0.1920 0.2000 0.1950 b:s 1:2.17[70]
0617 Vol 0436047, Sht 0141509 32.45% LHC 0.1951 0.2120 0.2000 b:s 1:1.92
0614 Vol 0742259, Sht 0310280 41.80% LHC 0.1970 0.2650 0.2010 b:s 1:1.06
0613 Vol 0433078, Sht 0158507 36.60% LHC 0.1902 0.2000 0.1970 b:s 1.18:1
0612 Vol 0532910, Sht 0107142 20.11% LHC 0.1900 0.2000 0.1997 b:s 1:3.12[69]
0611 Vol 1293346, Sht 0309200 23.91% LHC 0.1900 0.2180 0.2000 b:s 1:1.41[68]
0610 Vol 1314871, Sht 0131800 16.87% LHC 0.2100 0.2349 0.2120 b:s 1:2.45[67]
0607 Vol 0781176, Sht 0131800 16.87% LHC 0.2201 0.2500 0.2350 b:s 1:1.70
0606 Vol 0554985, Sht 0192595 34.70% LHC 0.2500 0.2639 0.2500 b:s 1.82:1
0605 Vol 0218283, Sht 0072968 33.43% LHC 0.2530 0.2601 0.2585 b:s 1:3.09
0604 Vol 0077889, Sht 0030500 39.16% LHC 0.2605 0.2719 0.2605 b:s 1:1.70
0603 Vol 0296541, Sht 0095000 32.04% LHC 0.2700 0.2775 0.2726 b:s 1:1.12[66]
0531 Vol 0180950, Sht 0098765 54.58% LHC 0.2611 0.2775 0.2775 b:s 1.38:1[65]
0530 Vol 0221542, Sht 0049700 22.43% LHC 0.2650 0.2739 0.2739 b:s 1:3.62
0529 Vol 0518608, Sht 0199204 38.41% LHC 0.2526 0.2750 0.2720 b:s 1.89:1[64]
0528 Vol 0538254, Sht 0132592 24.63% LHC 0.2540 0.2660 0.2600 b:s 2.23:1[63]
0524 Vol 0155897, Sht 0056184 36.04% LHC 0.2602 0.2690 0.2611 b:s 1:1.63[62]
0523 Vol 0109249, Sht 0033000 30.21% LHC 0.2550 0.2960 0.2690 b:s 2.89:1[61]
0522 Vol 0167469, Sht 0031100 18.57% LHC 0.2520 0.2650 0.2600 b:s 1:1.23
0521 Vol 0185758, Sht 0086259 46.44% LHC 0.2531 0.2640 0.2600 b:s 1.68:1
0520 Vol 0355550, Sht 0135850 38.21% LHC 0.2510 0.2615 0.2600 b:s 1.41:1
0517 Vol 0261558, Sht 0092700 35.44% LHC 0.2500 0.2640 0.2591 b:s 1.78:1
0516 Vol 0641735, Sht 0218208 34.00% LHC 0.2460 0.2690 0.2500 b:s 1:1.30
0515 Vol 0370415, Sht 0078250 21.12% LHC 0.2390 0.2500 0.2430 b:s 1:2.41
0514 Vol 0590688, Sht 0178460 30.21% LHC 0.2210 0.2510 0.2500 b:s 1:1.32
0513 Vol 0778100, Sht 0155500 19.98% LHC 0.2350 0.2500 0.2460 b:s 1:1.70
0510 Vol 0270484, Sht 0066455 24.57% LHC 0.2401 0.2500 0.2480 b:s 1:1.67
0509 Vol 0304708, Sht 0068700 22.55% LHC 0.2451 0.2592 0.2459 b:s 1.35:1
0508 Vol 1143057, Sht 0539744 47.22% LHC 0.2300 0.2650 0.2549 b:s 1.45:1
0507 Vol 0129978, Sht 0005424 04.17% LHC 0.2560 0.2625 0.2600 b:s 1.19:1
0506 Vol 0211234, Sht 0010924 05.17% LHC 0.2550 0.2698 0.2698 b:s 1:1.08
0503 Vol 0183500, Sht 0076000 41.42% LHC 0.2500 0.2598 0.2590 b:s 2.63:1
0502 Vol 0184550, Sht 0018850 10.21% LHC 0.2410 0.2600 0.2600 b:s 1:3.04
0501 Vol 0301628, Sht 0032500 10.77% LHC 0.2400 0.2795 0.2610 b:s 1:1.64
[61] An AH trade of 5.1K is not included in the FINRA daily short sales. Including it in day's volume 28.86%, Including it as short volume as well yields 33.32%.
[62] Second day in a row an AH trade below the close: manipulation suspected. See this comment. http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091axionpowerhost/1890011axionpowerconcentrator239may24axionpowerreportsfirstquarterresultsfor2013#comment19222951
The FINRA data does not include the AH trade of 6K. Adding this to the day's volume moves the short percentage from the FINRAbased 36.04% to 34.70%. If we also add it to short sales, the percentage moves to 38.41%.
[63] The FINRA data does not include an AH trade of 19.7K. Including it moves the FINRAreported short percentage from 24.63% to 23.76%. If it's also added to short sales, the short volume moves to 152,292 and percentage moves to 27.29%.
[64] The FINRA data excludes a 10K AH trade. Including it in the day's volume would move daily short percentage from 38.41% to 37.68%. Including it also in the daily short volume would move volume from 199204 to 209,204 and percentage from 38.41% to 39.58%.
[65] The FINRA data excludes a 10K AH trade. Including it in the day's volume would move daily short percentage from 54.58% to 51.72%. Including it also in the daily short volume would move volume from 98765 to 108765 and percentage from 54.58% to 59.96%.
[66] The FINRA data excludes a 5K AH trade. Including it in the day's volume would move daily short percentage from 32.04% to 31.50%. Including it also in the daily short volume would move volume from 95K to 100K and percentage from 32.04% to 33.16%.
[67] Finra data excludes two AH trades, 10593 and 5K, totaling 15593, both at $0.21. Adding them to the volume moves the Finrareported volume from 1314871 to 1330464, and the short percentage from the FINRAbased calculated 18.75% to 18.53%. If we also add it to the daily short sales, the short sales move to 262100 from the FINRAreported 246507 and the short percentage moves to 19.70%.
[68] Three AH trades at $0.20 of 8K, 8K and 2.5K are not included in FINRA daily short sales. Including that volume moves FINRAreported daily volume from 1,293,346 to 1,311,846 and short percentage from 23.91% to 23.57%. If we also include them in the daily short sales, daily shorts goes to 327,700 and short percentage moves to 24.98%.
[69] A very unusual trade before the open ($0.20x2.5K) and one after the close ($0.1935x2.5K) do not appear on the FINRA data. Adding these to Finra's total volume would move it from 532,910 to 537,910 and reduce the short percentage from 20.11% to 19.92%. If we also add it to the day's short sales, short volume moves from 107,142 to 112,142 and short percentage moves to 20.85%.
[70] A 2K AH trade is not included in the FINRAreported volumes. Adding this to the days volume move the volume from 187,360 to 189,360 and the short percentage from 35.14% to 34.77%. If the 2K is also added to daily short sales, the short volume moves from 65,840 to 67,840 and short percentage to 35.83%.
[71] A 15K AH trade is not included in FINRA data. Adding it to total volume moves the volume from the reported 555,717 to 570,717 and the short percentage from 17.02% to 16.58%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves to 109,600 and the short percentage to 19.20%.
[72] A 15K AH trade is not included in FINRA data. Adding it to total volume moves the volume from the reported 898,970 to 913,970 and the short percentage from 16.17% to 15.90%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves to 160,356 and the short percentage to 17.54%.
[73] Two outofhours trades, a 5K premarket and a 15K afterhours trade, are not included in FINRA data. Adding them to total volume moves the volume from the reported 1,298,856 shares to 1,313,856 and the short percentage from 22.87% to 22,61%. If they are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves to 312,000 and the short percentage to 23.75%.
[75] One AH trade of 6K is not included in FINRA data. Adding it to total volume moves the volume from the reported 362,587 shares to 368,587 and the short percentage from 19.03% to 18.72%. If they are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves to 75,513 and the short percentage to 20.35%.
[77] There was a 10K premarket trade at $0.1550 to start the day on a sour note. It was immediately followed by two "sells" totaling 115K at $0.1552, converting "sour" to "bitter". Anyway, the FINRAreported daily short sales don't include the premarket trade. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,131,068 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 21.88% to 21.69%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 247,450 to 257,450 and the short percentage would be 22.56%.
[78] There were 2 5K premarket trades at $0.18 & $0.1899. The FINRAreported daily short sales don't include the premarket trades. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 911,825 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 45.71% to 45.21%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 416,775 to 426,775 and the short percentage would be 46.30%.
07/30/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 97, MinTrSz:150, MaxTrSz: 54000, Vol 480800, AvTrSz: 4957
Min. Pr: 0.1651, Max Pr: 0.1788, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1690
# Buys, Shares: 44 202647, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1700
# Sells, Shares: 53 278153, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1683
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.37 (42.1% "buys"), DlyShts 144869 (30.13%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 52.08%
Daily short sales volume and percentage moved back to the range I consider "normal" in the longterm. This is good, IMO, and is consistent with past behavior after big spikes up. What will be interesting, to me, to watch is where the low percentage gets to again over time. If the established trend holds, we should see no lower than ~10% nearterm. Longerterm I expect that to rise to around 15% or so, with some infrequent exceptions.
Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/26: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1555
07/29: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295
07/30: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295
Vol, in K, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041.
Vol, in K, for above days: 921.83, 480.80.
Notice we again have a shortterm flat 85% price. If we can hold a VWAP >= $0.1622, we can hold this 85% price tomorrow too.
On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1day change: 15.8%, 96.2%, 0.8%, 3.7%, 0.1%, 0.9%
5day change: 7.2%, 20.2%, 7.0%, 20.8%, 7.4%, 48.6%
5day rate of change change: 813.3%, 29.2%, 40.6%, 21.1%, 8.6%, 120.6%
On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1day change: 33.4%, 98.9%, 20.8%, 24.3%, 11.1%, 24.5%
5day change: 96.0%, 109.3%, 163.7%, 1234.8%, 244.5%, 22.7%
5day rate of change change: 54.8%, 5111.1%, 8.3%, 38.6%, 23.4%, 18.3%
My original experimental inflection point calculations, sensitive only to buy:sell and volume, are still showing shortterm positive readings in the 5 and 10day periods, 323.24 and 2.81 respectively. We'll have to see if the pattern of the chart firms up by affecting the longerterm periods sufficiently to make the pattern I watch for in them. Those longerterm metrics are still quite negative, but a couple are beginning to show improvement.
The newer version, incorporating other factors, is presenting a similar shortterm picture with the 5 and 10day periods still being positive at 53.40 and 0.45. It's less positive ATM than the original calculations. Yesterday I said "If today's behavior is even weakly sustained, we're seeing a pattern develop on the charts that would suggest we're starting to rise longerterm. I'd like to see the 25day get over zero and the longerterm metrics continue to improve though. I am, however, cautious at this point as I believe, as MrI and I surmised, this is a "Forbes Effect" and I don't know how long it may last and what effect the coming share issue, around 8/6 (?) may have". Nothing has changed IMO.
Yesterday I said "If the new shares aren't issued until 8/6, I expect we'll see some increased fails to deliver for this period (as has been seen in my fails to deliver charts, which has been showing increased consistency since midMay), ...". I want to highlight this as the latest update is beginning to show some consistency, not seen since the last of the "Old Big Uglies" were suspected to be in the market. The volumes and consistency aren't there yet, but the consistency is approaching that previously seen.
Check the bottom two charts in my fails instablog.
The buy:sell weakened a bit today, but is not yet concerning. It's in a compleatly normal range, as suggested by the averages, all also back into normal ranges.
Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.
07/29/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 92, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol 921825, AvTrSz: 10020
Min. Pr: 0.1580, Max Pr: 0.1950, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1709
# Buys, Shares: 49 580975, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1747
# Sells, Shares: 43 340850, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1645
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.70:1 (63% "buys"), DlyShts 416775 (45.21%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 122.28%
I've added a second version of my newer experimental inflection points charts to try and make the shorterterm changes more visible. It does that, but makes the chart more visually "discordant". I'm going to pop a couple "vote for this or that one" comments into my instablog to get some feedback from those who visit regularly. "Visually" soothing or more detail is what it boils down to I think.
There were two 5K premarket trades at $0.18 & $0.1899. The FINRAreported daily short sales don't include the premarket trades. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 911,825 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 45.71% to 45.21%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 416,775 to 426,775 and the short percentage would be 46.30%.
Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/26: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 Wk cls VWAP $0.1555
07/29: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295
Vol, in K, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041.
Vol, in K, for above days: 921.83.
On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1day change: 145.6%, 153.5%, 22.9%, 7.5%, 3.7%, 2.7%
5day change: 53.7%, 28.9%, 61.5%, 58.5%, 205.8%, 34.8%
5day rate of change change: 113.9%, 67.0%, 2519.0%, 46.1%, 138.8%, 50.5%
On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1day change: 412.9%, 137.6%, 55.5%, 45.6%, 33.1%, 48.2%
5day change: 961.3%, 925.2%, 240.2%, 90.6%, 66.4%, 53.2%
5day rate of change change: 36.9%, 96.8%, 26.8%, 15.1%, 9.3%, 6.6%
My original experimental inflection point calculations, sensitive only to buy:sell and volume, are again showing shortterm positive readings in the 5 and 10day periods, 383.88and 74.27 respectively. We'll have to see if the pattern of the chart firms up by affecting the longerterm periods sufficiently to make the pattern I watch for in them. Those longerterm metrics are still quite negative, but beginning to show improvement.
The newer version, incorporating other factors, is presenting a similar shortterm picture with the 5 and 10day periods being positive at 80.22, 41.05. My assessment is it's more positive ATM than the original calculations. Yesterday I said "It's looking increasingly like the trend lines on the newer chart for the 50, 100 and 200day calculations will be at least revisited". WHOOPS! Scratch that! If today's behavior is even weakly sustained, we're seeing a pattern develop on the charts that would suggest we're starting to rise longerterm. I'd like to see the 25day get over zero and the longerterm metrics continue to improve though. I am, however, cautious at this point as I believe, as MrI and I surmised, this is a "Forbes Effect" and I don't know how long it may last and what effect the coming share issue, around 8/6 (?) may have.
With the 85% share issue price currently at $0.1295, if the VWAP range held in the $0.17 area, a quick flip would yield 31.27%. The daily short sales today may be reflecting the "flip" already as I suspect some of the financiers shorted into this strength and will cover with the shares they are about to receive. If the new shares aren't issued until 8/6, I expect we'll see some increased fails to deliver for this period (as has been seen in my fails to deliver charts, which has been showing increased consistency since midMay), which would support my thought, It comes nowhere near being confirmation though. Presuming that the financiers are not acting in concert, some will likely hold their allotment, expecting even higher prices. They might then feed them into the market, hopefully carefully, slightly damping any price rise that might be seen, maybe around the $0.2x area?
In summary, I would like to believe my charts, but knowing we are in exceptional circumstances, I'm loathe to believe what they suggest since they were conceived with a "normal" market in mind.
Moving on, the averages for the buy: sell have all moved back into normal ranges, which is quite positive. Sans nasty action by the financiers, we might see some price appreciation sustain for a while.
Today's average trade size was inflated by quite a few larger block trades. We had 2 100K, an 80K, a 70K+, a 60K, a 50K, 3 30K35K and several in the 20K25K range.
Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.
07/26/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 111, MinTrSz: 170, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 638003, AvTrSz: 5748
Min. Pr: 0.1500, Max Pr: 0.1600, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1555
# Buys, Shares: 45 291042, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1577
# Sells, Shares: 66 346961, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1537
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.19 (45.6% "buys"), DlyShts 63020 (9.88%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 18.16%
I'm becoming concerned about the FINRA daily short sales percentages. They've been in a trend lower since the first week in June. As you might recall, when they moved to excessively low percentages for an extended period, roughly beginning of January through midApril, we had that long move down after the end of the "grind up" that started in early November of last year. Without "normal" daily short sales percentages, I suspect a "broken market" and continued price weakening.
If you check my charts, you'll see that when daily short sales began to trend up towards "normal", we had an increase in price stability and even some appreciation. This price action started, with a nadir and then rapid recovery, about a week after the daily short percentages began the trend up towards "normal".
Kudos to the folks trading through ARCA today. Although I couldn't catch their early action, I noticed in the late morning or early afternoon that they were not contesting ATDF and NITE for top spot on the sell side. They parked an ask at $0.159 and sat on it, ignoring the jostling of those around them, the trades bypassing their offer and hitting the bids, ... And they were rewarded beginning around 14:58 as buyers came and took their shares (or at least enough where they could call it a day) and they were off the queue by 15:26. Then the lateday high of $0.16 was hit, but for only a few trades and shares, and the price began to plummet (well, if 8/10ths of a cent on a day with a 1 penny spread can be called such), getting as low as $0.1520 as "The Usual Suspects" started slinging shares at the bidders, who responded appropriately.
So I now proclaim that ARCA is smarter than ATDF, NITE et al! The VWAP after ARCA was done was only $0.1559! ARCA outdid the day's VWAP by 2.251% and that subsequent trading by 1.987%! That was helped by sellers both dropping ask prices (not aggressively though) and trades stepping around to hit the bids (a bit more aggressively here), as demonstrated by the buy and sell percentages of 35.99% and 64.01% respectively for that following period.
Well done say I! And I wish them similar success moving forward, although expecting to do that well every day seems a bit ambitious.
Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/22: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1532, x 85%: $0.1302
07/23: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1532, x 85%: $0.1302
07/24: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1532, x 85%: $0.1302
07/25: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1527, x 85%: $0.1298
07/26: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295
Vol, in K, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902
Vol, in K, for above days: 4255, 738.6, 2046, 477.8, 1141, 638.
On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1day change: 1465.8%, 67.1%, 10.8%, 2.2%, 0.7%, 2.6%
5day change: 2.1%, 55.6%, 149.8%, 542.8%, 225.9%, 6.3%
5day rate of change change: 176.7%, 13.5%, 111.4%, 145.9%, 350.8%, 26.2%
On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1day change: 180.5%, 33.3%, 12.1%, 25.9%, 19.8%41.5%
5day change: 143.4%, 56.8%, 53.1%, 52.6%, 73.8%, 75.9%
5day rate of change change: 180.1%, 221.0%, 43.9%, 43.2%, 57.4%58.4%
As I mentioned yesterday, with the original calculations sensitive only to buy:sell and volume they continue to respond to the recent sustained more normal buy percentages, today 51.8% over the last five days now vs. the 34.8% 6/287/19.
The newer version incorporates other factors and is, I believe, presenting a truer shortterm picture. Yesterday I said "The 5 and 10day calculations are still above zero but will need some help in the coming days to stay up there". Since we again got no help today, the 5 and 10day readings have dropped again from Wednesday's 27.84 and 5.11 respectively to 25.56 and 108.96 today. It's looking much more likely the trend suggesting reduced weakening or actual strengthening is off the table. It's looking increasingly like the trend lines on the newer chart for the 50, 100 and 200day calculations will be at least revisited.
Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.
07/25/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 108, MinTrSz: 1000, MaxTrSz: 110000, Vol 1141068, AvTrSz: 10565
Min. Pr: 0.1550 (with premarket trade), Max Pr:, 0.1779, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1622
# Buys, Shares: 55 615828, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1634
# Sells, Shares: 52 507740, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1604
# Unkn, Shares: 1 17500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1725
Buy:Sell 1.21:1 (54% "buys"), DlyShts 247450 (21.69%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 48.74%
There was a 10K premarket trade at $0.1550 to start the day on a sour note. It was immediately followed by two "sells" totaling 115K at $0.1552, converting "sour" to "bitter". Anyway, the FINRAreported daily short sales don't include the premarket trade. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,131,068 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 21.88% to 21.69%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 247,450 to 257,450 and the short percentage would be 22.56%.
We lost our grip on the 85% price of $0.1302 today along with the improving VWAP. Considering the effect of the negative Tom Konrad article regarding the PIPE financing, I was surprise to see the buy:sell hold so well. I posted several comments wondering if it was fencesitters seeing opportunity, folks with short positions doing covering buys, or the PIPErs supporting price in anticipation of the next share issuance and wanting to have a good market into which they can dump their shares at an estimated 22.9% profit in just a few days if price can be held at $0.16.
I'll never know.
Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/22: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1532, x 85%: $0.1302
07/23: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1532, x 85%: $0.1302
07/24: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1532, x 85%: $0.1302
07/25: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1527, x 85%: $0.1298
Vol, in K (for above wks/days): 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 4255, 738.6, 2046, 477.8, 1141.
On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1day change: 103.4%, 53.1%, 8.8%, 4.1%, 1.4%, 0.6%
5day change: 40.3%, 398.7%, 151.6%, 131.0%, 14.4%, 1.9%
5day rate of change change: 58.7%, 680.4%, 55.2%, 46.3%, 78.2%, 72.7%
On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1day change: 132.7%, 1698.6%, 100.1%, 219.7%, 125.4%, 3980.8%
5day change: 67.2%, 62.2%, 147.5%, 285.8%, 246.3%, 336.0%
5day rate of change change: 206.9%, 263.1%, 306.5%, 582.9%, 775.2%, 317.9%
Note that since the original calculations are sensitive only to buy:sell and volume, they continue to respond to the recent sustained more normal buy percentages, 53.5% over the last four days vs. the 34.8% 6/287/19. But it is sensitive only to volume and buy:sell. The newer version incorporates other factors and is, i believe, presenting a truer shortterm picture. Yesterday I said "The 5 and 10day calculations are still above zero but will need some help in the coming days to stay up there". The 5 and 10day readings moved from yesterday's 27.84 and 5.11 respectively to 9.12 and 81.77 today. With a longer view we can't say the trend suggesting reduced weakening or actual strengthening is off the table yet. I'm watching to see if the trend lines on the newer chart for the 50, 100 and 200day calculations hold or not.
Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.
07/24/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 109, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol 477758, AvTrSz: 4383
Min. Pr: 0.1750, Max Pr: 0.1895, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1808
# Buys, Shares: 64 289603, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1827
# Sells, Shares: 44 183155, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1778
# Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1800
Buy:Sell 1.58:1 (60.6% "buys"), DlyShts 103160 (21.59%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 56.32%
Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/22: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1532, x 85%: $0.1302
07/23: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1532, x 85%: $0.1302
07/24: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1532, x 85%: $0.1302
Vol, in K (for above wks/days): 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 4255, 738.6, 2046, 477.8.
On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1day change: 8.6%, 17.1%, 4.9%, 6.1%, 1.9%, 2.6%
5day change: 29.3%, 11.5%, 47.2%, 41.0%, 26.7%, 76.0%
5day rate of change change: 35.8%, 62.1%, 153.9%, 335.2%, 13.6%, 79.7%
On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1day change: 43.9%, 68.0%, 25.2%, 92.2%, 42.7%, 108.1%
5day change: 54.4%, 50.3%, 62.7%, 75.3%, 68.7%, 77.8%
5day rate of change change: 74.5%, 87.5%, 126.7%, 113.7%, 110.8%, 127.4%
Note that since the original calculations are sensitive only to buy:sell and volume, they responded well to the bump in buy percentage from yesterday's 49.5% to today's 60.6%. The newer version incorporates other factors and is reflecting the deceleration in the strengthening of those other things over the periods. The 5 and 10day calculations are still above zero but will need some help in the coming days to stay up there.
ARCA was in from the start again today, along with NITE, ATDF ... Unfortunately, they were insensitive to the bullish sentiment in play, exhibited by the 4:1 buy:sell at 12:08 with a VWAP of $0.1826 I commented on here. They squandered the opportunity to make better profit and hold price up by jostling to be first on the ask. The buyers recognized this and began to retreat on the bids. So the sellers ended up playing leap frog later in the day in a rush to get rid of their shares at a lower price.
We held our 85% price for the third consecutive day. Our VWAP also held up well from yesterday's $0.1804, rising 0.24%. Our low did well, up from yesterday's $0.1700 to $0.1750, +2.94%. Our high didn't fare so well, going from yesterday's $0.1950, to 0.1895, a change of (2.82%). Overall, I can't complain ... except about the sellers' shortsightedness, of course.
Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.
07/23/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 328, MinTrSz: 170, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol 2045546, AvTrSz: 6236
Min. Pr: 0.1700, Max Pr: 0.1950, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1804
# Buys, Shares: 195 1012340, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1815
# Sells, Shares: 132 1027206, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1793
# Unkn, Shares: 1 6000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1830
Buy:Sell 1:1.01 (49.5% "buys"), DlyShts 497243 (24.31%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 48.41%
Due to the number of trades I had to manually enter today, there may be some errors.
Note the smaller decline 7/19 to 7/22 in the VWAP and 85% price. This is the first sign that we may have begun nearing a bottom in the expected share issue prices. It's not quite there yet, but at last it's working towards it.
Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/22: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1532, x 85%: $0.1302
07/23: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1532, x 85%: $0.1302
Vol, in K (for above wks/days): 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 4255, 738.6, 2046.
You may recall I've been using the phrase "reducing weakness" or a similar phrase for some time (a week or so?). I had commented a few days ago that it wouldn't taker much to produce a signal of a move up coming. Well we're not quite there yet but in my newer version below you'll note only one small negative number. I've mentioned in the past that I'm gaining more confidence in the newer version and we know the original is a bit "flaky".
On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1day change: 3.5%, 15.8%, 3.4%, 1.1%, 0.5%, 3.7%
5day change: 33.7%, 31807.0%, 60.4%, 21.5%, 11.0%, 295.9%
5day rate of change change: 42.8%, 60.2%, 78.7%, 14.5%, 13.4%, 165.0%
Before looking at the newer change percentages, keep in mind that the two 5day metrics need to be viewed in a context rate of change, not absolute changes in values. We had a nice acceleration from "reducing weakness" to "increasing strength", as I've been mentioning. What you see now is a decrease in that change in acceleration, not yet a suggestion in weakening. It's possible to interpret the changes as a top is being suggested, but it's too early to decide that's the case. It could be that we are now reverting to a more steady "grind up", as was seen back in November when I posted that I believed we were beginning a "grind up". To put some context around it, here's a few day's readings of the 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day newer experimental inflection point calculations and those from 11/12 and forward a few days.
48.04 095.94 424.81 422.03 1230.10 613.55
33.99 119.92 444.18 534.18 1365.66 862.40
14.78 125.42 466.16 592.85 1338.08 766.41
13.29 126.52 428.35 528.77 1216.25 512.67
+49.62 +015.99 208.35 135.69 0596.67 +657.66
237.40 262.77 405.18 889.12 697.50
111.84 164.85 294.14 575.10 150.01
052.24 123.10 060.69 092.56 +893.30
043.58 163.77 140.38 280.34 +486.73
013.45 175.30 140.72 363.14 +264.35
+055.83 132.83 078.93 222.00 +337.98
+048.62 047.74 070.66 257.62 +160.42
Note the positive readings on the 5, 10 and 200 day metrics for today and on the 5day and 100day (200day wasn't available yet) for last November. If this newer version is correct, the crosses above zero are a bullish indication. However, knowing what we know about the financing deal and what we (I?) think goes on with the financiers, I don't know whether to place any faith in them or not. In normal circumstances, I would have a fair amount of faith in them.
On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1day change: 473.2%, 112.6%, 51.4%, 74.3%, 50.9%, 228.3%
5day change: 16.2%, 18.4%, 34.6%, 22.6%, 22.5%, 30.6%
5day rate of change change: 42.7%, 40.6%, 65.5%, 57.0%, 54.3%, 60.2%
I suggest taking a look at the actual numbers in my instablog for a better feel for the implications of underlying numbers if it's not quite clear.
The last two days I said "The other thing of note, although being a Friday maybe not so significant, was that we seem to have an attempt at price recovery going on" and "Today, I think we can call it significant as our high, VWAP and close were +7.59%, +3.70% and 11.70% respectively. What could it be, what could it be ... Hm". Well, today the low, high, VWAP and close prices were up 13.3%, 14.7%, 12.8% and 7.12% respectively.
ARCA was in from the start again today and hey were generally "well behaved" in their selling for the rest of the day again, not taking extraordinary measures to battle ATDF for the top spot on the sell side and often sitting later in the ask queue awaiting a hit. They are now acting much more like a normal market participant, sometimes being more aggressive and sometimes more patient. I'm sure they will benefit more over the long haul with this combination of behavior.
Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.
07/22/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 147, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 39499, Vol 738566, AvTrSz: 5024
Min. Pr: 0.1500, Max Pr: 0.1700, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1600
# Buys, Shares: 59 364536, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1614
# Sells, Shares: 84 352005, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1586
# Unkn, Shares: 4 22025, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1593
Buy:Sell 1.04:1 (49.4% "buys"), DlyShts 146751 (19.87%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 41.69%
Note the smaller decline 7/19 to 7/22 in the VWAP and 85% price. This is the first sign that we may have begun nearing a bottom in the expected share issue prices. It's not quite there yet, but at last it's working towards it.
Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/19: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 Wk cls VWAP $0.1543
07/22: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1532, x 85%: $0.1302
Vol, in K (for above wks/days): 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 4255, 738.6.
You may recall I've been using the phrase "reducing weakness" or a similar phrase for some time (a week or so?). I had commented a few days ago that it wouldn't taker much to produce a signal of a move up coming. Well we're not quite there yet but in my newer version below you'll note only one small negative number. I've mentioned in the past that I'm gaining more confidence in the newer version and we know the original is a bit "flaky".
On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1day change: 5.0%, 7.8%, 1.0%, 0.7%, 0.1%, 0.1%
5day change: 10.6%, 100.2%, 21.3%, 31.0%, 62.3%, 68.8%
5day rate of change change: 38.0%, 149.8%, 19.0%, 54.3%, 32.6%, 55.5%
On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1day change: 10.0%, 0.9%, 8.1%, 10.8%, 9.1%, 33.1%
5day change: 27.7%, 14.8%, 17.9%, 43.9%, 40.1%, 32.9%
5day rate of change change: 57.6%, 117.0%, 37.2%, 83.1%, 78.4%, 66.0%
Yesterday I said "The other thing of note, although being a Friday maybe not so significant, was that we seem to have an attempt at price recovery going on". Today, I think we can call it significant as our high, VWAP and close were +7.59%, +3.70% and 11.70% respectively. What could it be, what could it be ... Hm.
Aha! As I commented in the concentrator today, ARCA actually raised their offer price at least once today! Good on 'em! I first saw them on the ask at 9:38 for $0.157 and thought they were doing the usual at 10:16 when the ask dropped to $0.156. But at 10:29, hallelujah! They had moved to $0.158. When I peeked at 11:06, they were not in the queue at all and when I checked at 11:28 they were back at $0.158 again  they didn't reduce their offer upon return. When I checked again at 13:20 they were absent and at 13:43 they were in second place between ATDF's $0.164 and NITE's $0.168. They were generally "well behaved" in their selling for the rest of the day too, not taking extraordinary measures to battle ATDF for the top spot on the sell side and often just stepping away.
Anyway, I consider their behavior today to be more "market aware" and more conducive to the rational "negotiation" of prices seen in a healthy market. Let's hope this continues.
As usual, ATDF was contesting the head of the offers all day long and pretty much dominated the buyside bids. I suspect this explains the continued lower daily short sales, likely due to intrabroker trades and/or ATDF maintaining a small shortterm long position from which to sell.
The "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" was around the lower to midrange of what is normally seen, indicating that selling pressure was reduced. I think this is saying folks were not as frequently stepping around the best offer to hit the bid. With ATDF so often best on both sides, suggesting a low percentage of daily short sales would be normal, the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" would likely be higher if a lot of stepping around from other MMs selling was going on. Of course, this is only an inference by me based on lots of watching and assumptions, which might not be valid.
The average buy percentages seem to be stabilizing with a very slight, and maybe not continuing, bias towards improvement. We'll just have to watch and see what the trend is going forward. My newer inflection points suggest we might see the buy percentage averages strengthen going forward.
Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.
07/19/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 101, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 533630, AvTrSz: 5283
Min. Pr: 0.1515, Max Pr: 0.1580, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1543
# Buys, Shares: 27 165705, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1565
# Sells, Shares: 74 367925, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1532
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.22 (31.1% "buys"), DlyShts 95825 (17.96%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 26.04%
Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/15: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1625, x 85%: $0.1381
07/16: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1599, x 85%: $0.1359
07/17: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1579, x 85%: $0.1343
07/18: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1559, x 85%: $0.1325
07/19: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309
Vol, in K (for above wks/days): 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 1532, 982, 793, 416, 534.
On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1day change: 31.7%, 8.6%, 7.1%, 9.2%, 2.5%, 2.2%
5day change: 154.9%, 699.5%, 40.8%, 40.7%, 27.6%, 61.2%
5day rate of change change: 88.5%, 106.6%, 72.2%, 1892.9%, 617.2%, 50.8%
On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1day change: 56.5%, 4.6%, 4.9%, 11.0%, 2.0%, 11.1%
5day change: 84.6%, 87.9%, 42.2%, 36.7%, 45.6%, 46.0%
5day rate of change change: 69.5%, 541.6%, 61.5%, 40.2%, 54.3%, 50.2%
One of the notable things today, I think, is that in spite of ARCA being present all day (I first caught sight at 9:56) and first on the ask 6 of 16 peeks, the daily short sale percentage was low. Recall that when ATDF dominated with NITE, CDEL, ... contesting the head of the offers, we had consistently low daily short sales percentages. Of course, ATDF was often at the head of the bids during this time too, so intrabroker trades might have been the reason. Since today our "sells" were 68.9% of trades and daily short % of 'sells' was only 26.04%, I assume that a large number of nonARCA customers were stepping around ARCA to hit the bid and/or the 10 times the others were at the top their offers got taken quite often. Keep in mind that when ARCA appeared back in May the daily short sales percentage spiked. I can't say certainly there's cause and effect, but there has been correlation. Over time I note that the asks from the other marketmakers have "adapted" to the presence of ARCA, as have the bids behavior.
The other thing of note, although being a Friday maybe not so significant, was that we seem to have an attempt at price recovery going on. Here's VWAP, volume in thousands, and buy % over the last seven days.
$0.1555 0368.59 39.2%
$0.1487 0592.40 18.7%
$0.1403 0807.31 27.4%
$0.1318 1532.20 50.0%
$0.1456 0980.66 49.7%
$0.1552 0793.30 53.7%
$0.1523 0415.59 24.4%
$0.1543 0533.63 31.1%
The behavior of the 10day average buy percentage seems to support something positive going on: 6/28's low of 31% has morphed into today's 37%, last seen on 6/19 as part of a long down trend begun after 5/29. All this is best expressed in my instablog charts I guess. Anyway, maybe it's time to get cautiously optimistic? Nah!
On my original experimental inflection point calculations, the 5 and 10day periods have been in an up trend since the last week of June. The longer periods aren't supporting this behavior yet. However the charts are reflecting daytoday changes and a better feel might be gotten from looking at the tables of 5day changes for the various periods and the change in the rates of change. The 5day change across all periods is generally showing reducing weakness and the rate of change of five days for all periods exhibits a similar pattern.
On my newer version, a similar trend is seen, but the oneday changes are not as strongly suggesting less weakness. However, the changes over five days for all periods is strongly suggestive of reducing weakness, as are the rate of change changes for all periods. Using these later two factors, my newer version is much more "bullish" than the original calculations. This is not easily seen in the two tables of changes over five days above because the newer version was designed to dampen the "flakiness" of the original. But if you look at the charts and the raw numbers in the instablogs, the bias towards increased "bullishness" (or more properly, I think, "reducing weakening") is more apparent.
Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above..
07/18/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 82, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 37000, Vol 415591, AvTrSz: 5068
Min. Pr: 0.1510, Max Pr: 0.1590, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1523
# Buys, Shares: 26 101433, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1538
# Sells, Shares: 53 296158, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1517
# Unkn, Shares: 3 18000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1529
Buy:Sell 1:2.92 (24.4% "buys"), DlyShts 47883 (11.52%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 16.17%
Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2315, in 40 days: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2176, in 40 days: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1956, in 40 days: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1805, in 40 days: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1657, in 40 days: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/15: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1625, in 40 days: $0.1381
07/16: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1599, in 40 days: $0.1359
07/17: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1579, in 40 days: $0.1343
07/18: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1559, in 40 days: $0.1325
Vol, in K (for above wks/days): 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 1532, 982, 793, 416.
On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1day change: 28.9%, 6.3%, 1.8%, 4.9%, 1.6%, 0.8%
5day change: 233.5%, 191.1%, 99.8%, 41.8%, 57.3%, 860.4%
5day rate of change change: 228.8%, 6.6%, 36.6%, 101.0%, 110.4%, 285.7%
On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1day change: 29.3%, 25.0%, 4.6%, 26.6%, 11.0%, 40.6%
5day change: 314.3%, 5.3%, 42.2%, 60.0%, 44.5%, 41.6%
5day rate of change change: 1329.9%, 18.8%, 18.9%, 44.5%, 32.6%, 27.6%
ARCA was again on the ask from 10:48 on, and hung around all day, with a brief snack break slotted in. Late in the day they got really aggressive with knocking the ask down, taking it clear down to $0.1512 near the end of the day, from $0.1566 at 15:02. Either they intentionally want to drive price down or have absolutely zero discipline and patience. They are much worse than ATDF that tries to be first by 1/100th of a penny  ARCA chops it down in, sometimes, multipletenths at a whack.
Yesterday I said "The price spread narrowing a bit, with reducing volume suggests consolidating though, ... Everybody needs a little breather. So I'm not looking for a nearterm big move unless some news appears ". Our price spread narrowed again, dropping to 5.3% from the 10% yesterday and 25.9% the prior day. As I suggested yesterday, and it seems reinforced by today's behavior, it looks like we're entering at least a shortterm consolidation.
With the narrow spread and the nearconstant presence of ARCA and ATDF and the other usual suspects on the ask, price context for the day's action doesn't seem warranted. So we'll skip it.
Same deal for the context in time frames.
My original experimental inflection point calculations continue to show reducing weakness. The newer version is reflecting this reducing weakness a bit more strongly. It lost a little of it's "near signaling a move up", but since we noted yesterday "It's not there yet, but it's working on it" this is no surprise. We just want to see the trend stay intact.
Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.
07/17/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 137, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 54000, Vol 793295, AvTrSz: 5790
Min. Pr: 0.1500, Max Pr: 0.1650, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1552
# Buys, Shares: 67 426075, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1559
# Sells, Shares: 68 347220, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1542
# Unkn, Shares: 2 20000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1585
Buy:Sell 1.23:1 (53.7% "buys"), DlyShts 334605 (42.18%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 96.37%
Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2315, in 40 days: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2176, in 40 days: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1956, in 40 days: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1805, in 40 days: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1657, in 40 days: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/15: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1625, in 40 days: $0.1381
07/16: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1599, in 40 days: $0.1359
07/17: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1579, in 40 days: $0.1343
Vol, in K (for above wks/days): 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 1532, 982, 793.
On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1day change: 20.7%, 14.2%, 8.1%, 2.0%, 1.3%, 0.7%
5day change: 44.8%, 32.6%, 931.3%, 59.2%, 18.4%, 41.0%
5day rate of change change: 43.7%, 43.1%, 16.7%, 896.5%, 12.2%, 23.8%
On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1day change: 58.8%, 48.8%, 34.4%, 46.5%, 31.9%, 67.2%
5day change: 139.2%, 8921.5%, 20676.4%, 311.0%, 386.0%, 605.3%
5day rate of change change: 109.0%, 67.5%, 288.5%, 692.7%, 444.8%, 780.3%
ARCA was again on the ask from the getgo again, and hung around all day. A little more patient until late in the day. Spent a bit less time at the front of the line than I had noticed before, but based on the short percentage (relatively large) they and some of their cohorts must have been jumping down to hit the bids, suggested by the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" as well (347K "sells" vs. 334.6K short). This is like the old days!
Again, our price spread, 10% following yesterday's 25.9%, suggests that a change in behavior may be on the way, especially since we've had three days of good volume, albeit reducing. The price spread narrowing a bit, with reducing volume suggests consolidating though, not surprising coming off the low VWAP of $0.1318 on 7/15 when we had 1.532MM+ volume. Everybody needs a little breather. So I'm not looking for a nearterm big move unless some news appears.
Here's some price context for the day's action:
$0.1500$0.1521: 111600 shares, 14.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1511, b:s 1:3.29, 23.3% buys
$0.1525$0.1549: 283020 shares, 35.68% of vol, VWAP $0.1536, b:s 1.02:1, 50.5% buys
$0.1550$0.1570: 215600 shares, 27.18% of vol, VWAP $0.1557, b:s 1.22:1, 52.5% buys
$0.1583$0.1599: 085000 shares, 10.71% of vol, VWAP $0.1589, b:s 24.00:1, 84.7% buys
$0.1600$0.1650: 098075 shares, 12.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1604, b:s 2.77:1, 73.5% buys
Some context in time frames:
09:3009:57: 103575 shares, 13.06% of vol, VWAP $0.1552, 41.1% buys
10:0210:27: 073520 shares, 09.27% of vol, VWAP $0.1522, 87.1% buys
10:3710:57: 133600 shares, 16.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1548, 48.3% buys
11:0811:29: 126500 shares, 15.95% of vol, VWAP $0.1576, 68.8% buys
11:3111:54: 040000 shares, 05.04% of vol, VWAP $0.1564, 12.5% buys
12:0812:50: 044500 shares, 05.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1526, 0.0% buys
13:0213:28: 120000 shares, 15.13% of vol, VWAP $0.1573, 70.0% buys
13:5414:25: 020000 shares, 02.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1534, 39.5% buys
14:4414:59: 051500 shares, 06.49% of vol, VWAP $0.1525, 21.4% buys
15:0015:29: 067000 shares, 08.45% of vol, VWAP $0.1553, 76.1% buys
15:3215:58: 013100 shares, 01.65% of vol, VWAP $0.1554, 69.5% buys
In spite of the above, keep an eye on the inflection point calculations and the improving buy:sell. The inflection point calculations are definitely showing reducing weakness and the newer one is nearing showing rise. It's not there yet, but it's working on it.
Also, keep in mind that Drich mentioned, IIRC, that the MACD made a move to almost above zero  first time since 5/2/13.
Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.
07/16/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 175, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 29400, Vol 980658, AvTrSz: 5604
Min. Pr: 0.1390, Max Pr: 0.1750, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1456
# Buys, Shares: 91 486904, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1473
# Sells, Shares: 82 490954, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1439
# Unkn, Shares: 2 2800, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1400
Buy:Sell 1:1.01 (49.7% "buys"), DlyShts 303752 (30.97%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 61.87%
Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2315, in 40 days: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2176, in 40 days: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1956, in 40 days: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1805, in 40 days: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1657, in 40 days: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/15: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1625, in 40 days: $0.1381
07/16: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1599, in 40 days: $0.1359
Vol, in K (for above wks/days): 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902.27, 1532.2, 981.7.
On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1day change: 21.9%, 6.3%, 12.9%, 2.0%, 0.2%, 3.1%
5day change: 51.9%, 145.6%, 95.1%, 23.6%, 12.5%, 89.3%
5day rate of change change: 40.7%, 40.4%, 388.6%, 113.4%, 16.0%,356.3%
On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1day change: 44.9%, 37.2%, 41.1%, 42.5%, 35.0%, 55.0%
5day change: 71.6%, 99.5%, 99.8%, 86.9%, 87.6%, 92.2%
5day rate of change change: 67.0%, 71.9%, 113.8%, 95.3%, 90.8%, 94.6%
You can tell ARCA was again on the ask from the getgo again, and hung around all day, by the daily short sales percentage I think. Of course, our other "usual suspects" participated more strongly as well, so we can't give all the credit(?) to ARCA. Anyway, it didn't have the usual effect, at least as strongly, because we were either in "relief rally" mode or under the hypnotic effect of a couple recent brief mentions in short stories, one mention coming in a betterknown name, regarding Axion. As I mentioned in a comment, I actually saw ARCA get taken out a couple times and withdraw to around third place on the ask queue and just stay there for a while (maybe thinking about how much more they could've sold for?).
Our price spread, 25.9%, suggests that a change in behavior may be on the way, especially since we've had two days of good volume. Unfortunately, the urge to sell by some folks still held the VWAP price down, finishing up a bit less than a penny and a half. Here's some price context for the day's action:
$0.1390$0.1399: 066100 shares, 06.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1395, b:s 1.94:1, 66.0% buys
$0.1400$0.1400: 266271 shares, 27.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1400, b:s 1:9.34, 9.6% buys
$0.1401$0.1424: 085106 shares, 08.68% of vol, VWAP $0.1413, b:s 1.38:1, 57.9% buys
$0.1425$0.1441: 145735 shares, 14.86% of vol, VWAP $0.1429, b:s 2.89:1, 74.3% buys
$0.1450$0.1480: 218146 shares, 22.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1463, b:s 1.49:1, 59.9% buys
$0.1547$0.1594: 192300 shares, 19.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1573, b:s 2.07:1, 67.4% buys
$0.1750$0.1750: 007000 shares, 00.71% of vol, VWAP $0.1750, b:s 0% buys
Some context in time frames:
09:3009:45: 105500 shares, 10.76% of vol, VWAP $0.1459, 36.5% buys
09:4710:14: 089175 shares, 09.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1431, 50.1% buys
10:2412:09: 266237 shares, 27.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1404, 20.0% buys
12:1112:51: 060000 shares, 06.12% of vol, VWAP $0.1396, 66.7% buys
12:5114:28: 035800 shares, 03.65% of vol, VWAP $0.1404, 61.5% buys
14:2914:47: 123071 shares, 12.55% of vol, VWAP $0.1435, 69.5% buys
14:2915:30: 231646 shares, 23.62% of vol, VWAP $0.1450, 68.5% buys
15:3215:59: 192300 shares, 19.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1573, 67.4% buys
Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.
07/15/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 210, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 80000, Vol 1532199, AvTrSz: 7296
Min. Pr: 0.1251, Max Pr: 0.1380, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1318
# Buys, Shares: 114 766760, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1338
# Sells, Shares: 91 739614, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1298
# Unkn, Shares: 5 25825, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1309
Buy:Sell 1.04:1 (50% "buys"), DlyShts 265900 (17.35%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 35.95%
Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2315, in 40 days: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2176, in 40 days: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1956, in 40 days: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1805, in 40 days: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/12: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1657, in 40 days: $0.1408 Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
07/15: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1625, in 40 days: $0.1381
Vol, in K (for above wks/days): 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902.27, 1532.2.
On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1day change: 8.7%, 10.3%, 5.0%, 2.8%, 1.0%, 4.6%
5day change: 83.3%, 178.1%, 16.9%, 25.3%, 41.9%, 40.9%
5day rate of change change: 31.0%, 1545.0%, 51.5%, 52.2%, 373.3%, 155.9%
On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1day change: 24.4%, 8.4%, 6.2%, 16.4%, 13.3%, 18.4%
5day change: 111.6%, 1871.6%, 67.5%, 139.7%, 149.8%, 127.1%
5day rate of change change: 27.3%, 120.6%, 63.5%, 65.2%, 80.5%, 65.0%
ARCA was again on the ask from the getgo today through around 11:30 or so (unsure exactly). We opened at $0.13 and dropped to $0.1251 by 09:33:27 on 28 trades. Price was volatile through 11:37, not being able to hold $0.13 in spite of several attempts during that period. Volume was 781.4K, buys were 37.14% of the volume and sells were 62.86%. Our VWAP was $0.1292.
How much of this was due to the very late PR (a weekend lag from the filing to the appearance of the PR  sort of dumb?) about Chuck Trego being suggested to join the BOD and hanging around to consult and help find a new CFO is not known. Regardless, after this period we had a pretty good day from then until ... HE'S BAAAACK!
Yep, ARCA decided to reappear somewhere around the close (I didn't catch 'em until 15:57 when they undercut the best ask at that time, $0.138, with their own $0.137). They then rapidly walked the ask down to $0.134. From 15:53 to the close, every trade (7) was a sell, moving 38.5K in that 7 minutes. Based on that I'm guessing they came back at 15:53 to make sure we got our dose of lateday weakness.
With ARCA being absent a good part of the day, our usual suspects dominated the rest of the periods, resulting in a lower daily short sales volume (relative to what I would expect for the volume traded today) and percentage. Still, ~266K shares shorted (most due to the normal MM processes?) is nothing to sneeze at.
Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.
07/12/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 115, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 43000, Vol 807313, AvTrSz: 7020
Min. Pr: 0.1370, Max Pr: 0.1476, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1403
# Buys, Shares: 47 221525, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1403
# Sells, Shares: 64 560788, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1403
# Unkn, Shares: 4 25000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1397
Buy:Sell 1:2.53 (27.4%), DlyShts 165375 (20.48%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 29.49%
Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2315, in 40 days: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2176, in 40 days: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1956, in 40 days: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1805, in 40 days: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/08: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1768, in 40 days: $0.1503
07/09: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1739, in 40 days: $0.1478
07/10: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1710, in 40 days: $0.1454
07/11: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1685, in 40 days: $0.1432
07/12: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1657, in 40 days: $0.1408Wk cls VWAP $0.1403
Vol, in K (for above wks/days): 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 784, 350, 369, 592, 807.
On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1day change: 10.6%, 2.6%, 3.7%, 1.7%, 1.1%, 0.8%
5day change: 40.6%, 62.7%, 22.9%, 43.1%, 27.1%, 24.3%
5day rate of change change: 46.9%, 111.2%, 1208.3%, 65.6%, 418.8%, 104.4%
On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1day change: 44.0%, 37.8%, 22.6%, 22.4%, 15.1%, 28.0%
5day change: 47.8%, 107.6%, 105.4%, 45.5%, 73.6%, 58.6%
5day rate of change change: 27.7%, 154.9%, 9.6%, 17.6%, 11.9%, 15.4%
ARCA was in on the ask from the getgo today. The results were as we could expect  by 10:37 we dropped below $0.14. The other usual suspects began to compete strongly quite early on the sell side. In the few peeks I got, only three improvements were seen in the bid and ask combined for the whole day. Eleven times there was deterioration, again both sides combined.
Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.
07/11/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 116, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 35000, Vol 592400, AvTrSz: 5107
Min. Pr: 0.1400, Max Pr: 0.1540, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1487
# Buys, Shares: 24 110950, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1508
# Sells, Shares: 92 481450, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1483
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:4.34 (18.7% "buys"), DlyShts 54050 (9.12%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 11.23%
Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2315, in 40 days: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2176, in 40 days: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1956, in 40 days: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1805, in 40 days: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/08: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1768, in 40 days: $0.1503
07/09: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1739, in 40 days: $0.1478
07/10: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1710, in 40 days: $0.1454
07/11: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1685, in 40 days: $0.1432
Vol, in K (for above wks/days): 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 784, 350, 369, 592.
On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1day change: 56.2%, 1.8%, 6.9%, 12.7%, 4.8%, 4.6%
5day change: 225.1%, 3.5%, 6.6%, 456.4%, 469.9%,57.9%
5day rate of change change: 233.3%, 19.8%, 25.5%, 279.9%, 53.6%, 57.1%
On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1day change: 72.9%, 16.3%, 19.6%, 39.6%, 21.1%, 41.3%
5day change: 662.8%, 3.6%, 13.4%, 25.8%, 12.1%, 6.6%
5day rate of change change: 66.3%, 66.4%, 1.7%, 7.1%, 2.9%, 0.1%
Sort of similar to yesterday  ARCA in before noon, briefly, then again heavy late in the day driving price lower, assuring we get our lateday weakness. The other usual suspects tried to hold up in the interstitial, but it was for naught. ATDF, NITE, CDEL near the top of the ask most of the day and likely account for the daily short sales being low, just like we used to see.
Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.
07/10/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 88, MinTrSz: 350, MaxTrSz: 15000, Vol 368587, AvTrSz: 4188
Min. Pr: 0.1453, Max Pr: 0.1685, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1555
# Buys, Shares: 40 144550, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1557
# Sells, Shares: 48 224037, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1555
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.55 (39.2% "buys"), DlyShts 69013 (18.72%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 30.80%
Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2315, in 40 days: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2176, in 40 days: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1956, in 40 days: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1805, in 40 days: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/08: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1768, in 40 days: $0.1503
07/09: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1739, in 40 days: $0.1478
07/10: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1710, in 40 days: $0.1454
Vol, in K (for above wks/days): 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 784, 350, 369.
On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1day change: 3.1%, 15.2%, 1.6%, 7.9%, 0.2%, 0.9%
5day change: 42.7%, 35.3%, 34.4%, 85.6%, 78.0%, 16.2%
5day rate of change change: 396.4%, 23.7%, 99.3%, 68.6%, 4.4%, 256.3%
On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1day change: 5.3%, 8.0%, 9.3%, 4.3%, 8.5%, 20.7%
5day change: 82.6%, 11.4%, 61.3%, 398.1%, 634.4%, 1524.9%
5day rate of change change: 207.7%, 1411.5%, 78.8%, 62.6%, 114.9%, 94.1%
One AH trade of 6K is not included in FINRA data. Adding it to total volume moves the volume from the reported 362,587 shares to 368,587 and the short percentage from 19.03% to 18.72%. If they are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves to 75,513 and the short percentage to 20.35%.
Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.
07/09/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 89, MinTrSz: 152, MaxTrSz: 22148, Vol 350131, AvTrSz: 3934
Min. Pr: 0.1550, Max Pr: 0.1648, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1583
# Buys, Shares: 17 65407, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1612
# Sells, Shares: 72 284724, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1577
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:4.35 (18.7% "buys"),DlyShts 42265 (12.07%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 14.84%
On the glass half full side, we had a higher low and the punitive share price descent is beginning to slow its rate of descent ... slightly. OK, with that out of the way ...
Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2315, in 40 days: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2176, in 40 days: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1956, in 40 days: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1805, in 40 days: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/08: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1768, in 40 days: $0.1503
07/09: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1739, in 40 days: $0.1478
Vol, in K (for above wks/days): 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 784, 350.
On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1day change: 43.2%, 11.1%, 5.8%, 5.5%, 0.7%,0.4%
5day change: 26.5%, 21.9%, 27.9%, 4667.9%, 4.9%, 22.8%
5day rate of change change: 41.9%, 37.0%, 55.1%, 328.4%, 5.5%, 62.6%
On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1day change: 120.4%, 47.6%, 31.0%, 65.3%, 26.2%,105.2%
5day change: 61.6%, 56.6%, 142.1%, 105.7%, 95.0%, 97.7%
5day rate of change change: 208.5%, 97.4%, 169.6%, 225.2%, 175.5%,214.4%
ATDF was quite active on the sell and buy side today, taking the top spots the majority of times I checked. So we get the low daily short sales along with the weakening of price. Can't blame it all in them though  ARCA took control on the offers shortly before the close.
How nasty were they? For most of the day the asks were above $0.16 and at 15:04 was showing $0.1646. It was still $0.1639 at 15:13. At my next check, 15:51 ARCA was giving it away for $0.157 and at 15:57 paying you to buy ... almost. Ask was $0.1553. They also appeared briefly in the A.M., 11:2811:50 and moved the asks from the $0.1649 area into $0.161 and then $0.16. Of the MMs I see, and I track pretty deep into the stack for asks and bids, ARCA is one of the few I never see on the bid side.
FIE ON THEE YOU LEFTCOASTIE KNAVE!
Some context:
$0.1550$0.1563: 133329 shares, 38.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1555, 0.0% buys
$0.1575$0.1580: 054630 shares, 15.60% of vol, VWAP $0.1576, b:s 1:6.59, 13.2% buys
$0.1600$0.1610: 130465 shares, 37.26% of vol, VWAP $0.1601, b:s 1:2.25, 30.7% buys
$0.1639$0.1648: 031707 shares, 09.06% of vol, VWAP $0.1648, b:s 1.33:1, 57.1% buys
Then we can see how the usual behavior kicks in (lateday weakness) ...
09:4711:11: 021607 shares, 06.17% of vol, VWAP $0.1592, 35.2% buys
11:2012:57: 092000 shares, 26.28% of vol, VWAP $0.1605, 41.4% buys
12:5914:35: 051400 shares, 14.68% of vol, VWAP $0.1573, 14.0% buys
14:5215:46: 075365 shares, 21.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1601, 16.6% buys
15:4615:59: 109759 shares, 31.35% of vol, VWAP $0.1556, 0.0% buys
Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.
07/08/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 132, MinTrSz: 166, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 783838, AvTrSz: 5938
Min. Pr: 0.1512, Max Pr: 0.1750, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1625
# Buys, Shares: 80 424757, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1646
# Sells, Shares: 47 318731, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1602
# Unkn, Shares: 5 40350, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1594
Buy:Sell 1.33:1 (54.2%), DlyShts 215109 (27.44%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 67.49%
Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2315, in 40 days: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2176, in 40 days: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1956, in 40 days: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/05: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1805, in 40 days: $0.1534 Wk cls VWAP $0.1518
07/08: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1768, in 40 days: $0.1503
Vol, in K (for above wks/days): 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 445, 324, 286, holiday, 1,217, 784.
On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1day change: 42.3%, 29.3%, 1.8%, 5.6%, 3.3%, 2.2%
5day change: 3.9%, 237.2%, 30.1%, 115.4%, 67.5%, 33.2%
5day rate of change change: 71.8%, 388.8%, 34.4%, 61.8%, 6.9%, 84.1%
On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1day change: 65.0%, 52.6%, 26.8%, 48.2%, 30.8%, 61.3%
5day change: 13.4%, 48.0%, 55.9%, 19.0%, 32.9%, 22.7%
5day rate of change change: 75.7%, 34.8%, 37.0%, 50.9%, 44.4%, 51.3%
Well, the news of PbCs being order for 10 trucks helped, but there was no sign that the financiers were interested in letting price run up. *If* it was them that sold into this attempted push up. Some context:
$0.1512$0.1549: 064841 shares, 08.27% of vol, VWAP $0.1534, b:s 1:3.52, 22.1% buys
$0.1550$0.1581: 157259 shares, 20.06% of vol, VWAP $0.1563, b:s 2.44:1, 68.7% buys
$0.1600$0.1640: 217350 shares, 27.73% of vol, VWAP $0.1606, b:s 1:3.52, 18.5% buys
$0.1650$0.1699: 261590 shares, 33.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1674, b:s 2.18:1, 68.6% buys
$0.1700$0.1750: 082798 shares, 10.56% of vol, VWAP $0.1712, 100% buys
Then we can see how the usual behavior kicks in (lateday weakness) ...
09:3009:30: 037350 shares, 04.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1550, 100.0% buys
09:3009:32: 052698 shares, 06.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1719, 100.0% buys
09:3809:58: 074500 shares, 09.50% of vol, VWAP $0.1676, 76.9% buys
10:0610:47: 097190 shares, 12.40% of vol, VWAP $0.1680, 58.9% buys
11:0811:35: 085000 shares, 10.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1681, 88.2% buys
11:4012:52: 134750 shares, 17.19% of vol, VWAP $0.1620, 19.3% buys
12:5413:26: 117600 shares, 15.00% of vol, VWAP $0.1604, 29.1% buys
13:2714:03: 082859 shares, 10.57% of vol, VWAP $0.1567, 48.1% buys
14:1214:52: 040025 shares, 05.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1540, 49.2% buys
14:5315:53: 061866 shares, 07.89% of vol, VWAP $0.1551, 41.1% buys
We held up pretty well for quite a while even after ARCA started contesting the "me first" position on the ask, around 10:45. Then, over time, CDEL, NITE, ATDF and even PERT started jostling for position. The buyers were quick to recognize the behavior and shortly after 10:45, bids started going down.
Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.
07/05/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 37, MinTrSz: 120, MaxTrSz: 12500, Vol 160989, AvTrSz: 4351
Min. Pr: 0.1500, Max Pr: 0.1559, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1518
# Buys, Shares: 5 26950, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1551
# Sells, Shares: 32 134039, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1512
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:4.97 (16.7% "buys"), DlyShts 22069 (13.71%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 16.46%
Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2315, in 40 days: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2176, in 40 days: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1956, in 40 days: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/01: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1914, in 40 days: $0.1627
07/02: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1875, in 40 days: $0.1593
07/03: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1833, in 40 days: $0.1558
07/04: holiday
07/05: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1805, in 40 days: $0.1534
Vol, in K (for above wks/days): 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 445, 324, 286, holiday, 161.
On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1day change: 36.8%, 14.4%, 0.5%, 6.1%, 0.8%, 3.1%
5day change: 50.4%, 966.1%, 4.6%, 123.5%, 7.8%, 166.8%
5day rate of change change: 61.8%, 67.7%, 46.3%, 56.0%, 42.8%, 73.7%
On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1day change: 84.08, 266.37, 673.52, 773.48, 1853.86, 2021.75
5day change: 42.0%, 4.5%, 41.6%, 35.1%, 34.2%, 35.8%
5day rate of change change: 54.5%, 43.1%, 35.3%, 39.2%, 37.6%, 39.8%
Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.
07/03/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 42, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 285923, AvTrSz: 6808
Min. Pr: 0.1501, Max Pr: 0.1674, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1526
# Buys, Shares: 13 76262, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1534
# Sells, Shares: 28 205661, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1523
# Unkn, Shares: 1 4000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1525
Buy:Sell 1:2.70 (26.7% "buys"), DlyShts 26025 (9.1%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 12.65%
Important to remember that today was a halfday and not only will volume be low but behavior may not be indicative of longerterm trends. We just don't know. I do know many of us have concerns with what behavior may be like Friday, 7/5.
Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2315, in 40 days: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2176, in 40 days: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1956, in 40 days: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/01: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1914, in 40 days: $0.1627
07/02: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1875, in 40 days: $0.1593
07/03: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1833, in 40 days: $0.1558
07/04: holiday
Vol, in K (for above wks/days): 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 445, 324, 286, holiday.
On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1day change: 39.9%, 2.5%, 8.9%, 4.7%, 2.5%, 2.8%
5day change: 73.7%, 86.7%, 15.8%, 168.1%, 24.6%, 58.5%
5day rate of change change: 51.0%, 163.7%, 234.4%, 37.4%, 104.1%, 13.6%
On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1day change: 23.9%, 8.1%, 32.9%, 46.1%, 23.0%, 70.0%
5day change: 33.5%, 17.5%, 6.0%, 2.8%, 0.7%,1.8%
5day rate of change change: 33.8%, 23.5%, 22.3%, 14.1%, 14.7%, 9.0%
Daily short sales being low reflects the fact that ATDF was top of the ask stack 9 of the 14 peeks I got at changes in the ask. They were in second place another three times. Add in the usual suspects, NITE, CDEL and BTIG, took top spot 3 more times and we can see that selling pressure was high from the usual places. ARCA occupied the top spot 2 times only today. Given that, the buy:sell ratio is what we would expect as folks from these MMs likely traded around the ask and went an hit the bids.
Early in the day I posted a comment noting that we had 10 consecutive steps down in the ask from 9:34 through 10:39. What I didn't mention was that the bid held steady during this period at $0.1511  our buyers know the sellers so well now.
From 11:13 forward, the bids moved predominately up (4 of 6 and one unchanged) and the asks had 2 down and 1 up.
Given a short day and a holiday punctuated week, I don't see much more of value to consider.
Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.
07/02/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 57, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol 324355, AvTrSz: 5690
Min. Pr: 0.1510, Max Pr: 0.1650, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1589
# Buys, Shares: 23 115660, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1615
# Sells, Shares: 34 208695, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1575
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.80 (35.7% "buys"), DlyShts 73805 (22.75%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 35.37%
Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2315, in 40 days: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2176, in 40 days: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1956, in 40 days: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/01: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1914, in 40 days: $0.1627
07/02: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1875, in 40 days: $0.1593
Vol, in K (for above wks/days): 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 445, 324.
It was sort of a bullish day today, although there was no clear or consistent trend in price movement. Of the twentysix peeks I got a bid changes, seventeen were increases and eight were decreases (some uncovered). Of the twentytwo ask changes I saw, ten were increases (some uncovered) and twelve were decreases. We did get our typical lateday weakness beginning around 14:00, but it wasn't enough to push price below the low ranges seen through 11:30. For me, in this equity, that's bullish! Note that our VWAP does reflect this, up +$0.0021 from yesterday! :)) To $0.1589 from $0.1568.
This is reinforced by the buy and sell VWAP changes from yesterday: to $0.1615 from $0.1574 for the buy and to $ 0.1575 from 0.1563 for the sell. CDEL had an early 100K bid in at $0.1412 again and at 11:15 I caught ATDF with a 144K bid at $0.155. Late in the day ATDF bumped it to $0.1555, but it got pulled after about 15 minutes. Then it came back at 15:55 at $0.16 x 138K. AFAICT, CDEL just held their bid steady and never got near the top. For quite some time, smaller bids by ATDF and CDEL moved lockstep up to stay at the top of the bids. Unfortunately, they filed for divorce between 13:10 and 13:13 and there seems to have been no visitation rights either  never seen together again.
Average trade size looks like it is recovering a bit, but keep in mind our price range will tend to foster larger trade sizes. For that reason I don't look (yet?) at it as a sign of increasing bullishness, although it may be that.
Our buy:sell has been trending the right direction long enough to affect the 10day average. If this holds just another few days, the average will be back in normal range. We did finish the day with our buy percentage right at the calculated longterm trend and we seem to be heading towards having a more normal behavior going forward.
Looking at some trend lines I had added to my price chart, I note that on Friday VWAP bounced off what would be support in traditional TA and we've now had a second day of moving up and away. This might be symptomatic of the EOQeffect I touched on yesterday. We don't have a clue if this will turn into an "appreciable rise" or a "flat" trend, but it's nice to see some support appear. It'll be a while before we can guess if it's just a shortterm thing or not. However ...
Looking at my experimental inflection point changes below, and the charts themselves, there seems to be the seeds of optimism. It's really too early to say if we'll see a rise or a flat price trend develop though. I have been mentioning the last few days that I can't characterize this as strengthening yet, but it does appear to be a reduced rate of weakening is happening. As before, the newer version below, in which I'm gaining increasing confidence, is showing greater improvement than the original calculations. This is more apparent on the chart, which shows higher lows and highs in the periods since 6/9. If I could apply traditional TA to it, I would say it's suggestive of a double bottom. I think looking at the raw numbers in my instablog too will give a better feel for the trend.
We may be on the cusp of transitioning from "reducing rate of weakening" to "increasing strength". We should know in another couple of days. One caveat: a short week may interrupt the development. Lot's of times folks take extra precautions when there's shortened weeks and we have unrest in various parts of the world, Egypt in this case.
On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1day change: 21.6%, 1.7%, 10.3%, 2.0%, 1.6%, 0.3%
5day change: 157.6%, 8.4%, 2.9%, 27.5%, 19.3%, 63.1%
5day rate of change change: 105.1%, 24.0%, 171.4%, 15.9%, 2336.7%, 55.0%
On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1day change: 36.7%, 9.4%, 3.3%, 24.1%, 13.5%, 36.4%
5day change: 76.0%, 30.7%, 92.6%, 41.1%, 61.8%, 50.6%
5day rate of change change: 73.2%, 15.2%, 61.8%, 33.0%, 46.6%, 39.0%
Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.
07/01/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 75, MinTrSz: 250, MaxTrSz: 28500, Vol 445474, AvTrSz: 5940
Min. Pr: 0.1500, Max Pr: 0.1675, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1568
# Buys, Shares: 37 176374, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1574
# Sells, Shares: 37 262100, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1563
# Unkn, Shares: 1 7000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1592
Buy:Sell 1:1.49 (39.6% "buys"), DlyShts 160033 (35.92%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 61.06%
For those that haven't read it, FPA posted an excellent comment regarding PIPE financing and convertible warrants, "ratcheting" and related. Highly recommended.
Week end & this week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts) for next share issue:
06/14: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2315, in 40 days: $0.1968 Wk cls VWAP $0.2122
06/21: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.2176, in 40 days: $0.1850 Wk cls VWAP $0.1751
06/28: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1956, in 40 days: $0.1663 Wk cls VWAP $0.1474
07/01: 85% x avg. of 20 lowest intraday VWAPs, $0.1914, in 40 days: $0.1627
Vol, in K (for above wks/days): 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 445.
We had a nice 4.5% bump today. No reason I know of. In a comment I wondered if it might be money coming into retirement accounts, closing of books and beginning of another cycle, etc. I went to the oneyear snapshot and looked to see if there was a pattern near EOQ. There is indeed. After each EOQ is a little bump. A couple were followed by an appreciable rise and a couple went flat and then continued the down trend. June EOQ last year exhibited this latter behavior, as did the March EOQ this year (last year that EOQ was followed by a short run up, a flat movement and then we continued down). Since there is no fairly consistent pattern, I don't feel we can draw any conclusions based on that, which leaves the cause of the bump up today still open to speculation, as well as "what's next".
Whatever the cause, the movement in the bids and asks today were predominately higher until, quite late, we got the typical "lateday weakness". We'd had a nice buy:sell prior to that (hitting 1.18:1 around 14:45) and I'd commented to MrI it couldn't hold with ATDF, NITE and ARCA topping the asks side all day. But we had moved high enough by then that the weakness couldn't move us back to yesterday's range. In the last hour we held a $0.1586 VWAP on ~133.8K shares traded, ~30% of the day's volume.
The semimonthly failstodeliver data came available for the first half of June (remind me to thank them two weeks after its appropriate :\ ) and I was pleased to note that my concerns from the second half of May seem mostly eliminated. Volumes were small and cleared in one or two days (details in a comment I posted in the instablog). The only potential concern left is that we are seeing them at all in this day and age.
The following are relative movements, not absolute readings. More details with absolute numbers are in my instablog. In summary, still in the area of reducing weakness, not increasing strength, although that's changing ATM.
On my original inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
1day change: 0.8%, 2.6%, 1.6%, 6.8%, 0.9%, 1.6%
5day change: 13.5%, 225.7%, 10.9%, 136.0%, 3.2%, 13.9%
5day rate of change change: 85.7%, 89.1%, 41.9%, 98.7%, 79.8%, 26.1%
On my newer inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
1day change: 32.5%, 26.6%, 34.5%, 47.6%, 31.1%, 51.7%
5day change: 47.8%, 19.3%, 242.4%, 268.9%, 417.0%, 218.3%
5day rate of change change: 53.6%, 47.1%, 48.2%, 32.1%, 18.1%, 18.3%
Details of "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.
Disclosure: I am long AXPW.
Additional disclosure: I am very experimental, still learning TA and am not very conservative in my trading. But I am conservative regarding my confidence in what I'm learning and my attempts to share with others what I think I see coming. Your own DD is mandatory.
Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.
Share this Instablog with a colleague
06/05/2013 01400 0.26
06/10/2013 25800 0.24
06/11/2013 27800 0.21
06/14/2013 27011 0.20
HardToLove
HardToLove