H. T. Love's  Instablog

H. T. Love
Send Message
Spent over 30 years in computer systems work, many different functions. Owned my own business for awhile. Got tired of it (managing employees is not my baliwick) and stopped doing it professionally. Did other things, off and on, for some more years and finally bumped into this investing/trading... More
  • AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 9/1/2013 0 comments
    Aug 31, 2013 6:27 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    Everything below related to short sales, volume and price could become passe as a new batch of shares should be issued to the financiers quite soon (9/4?) and we don't know if they will behave as in the past and drive share price lower or finally start to support share price.

    To help keep the instablog shorter, I truncate some of the historical metrics, but keep enough here to hopefully keep the context clear and helpful.

    FocalPoint Analytics has posted an important explanation of the financing arrangements under which Axion is laboring. If you have not read it YOU SHOULD IMMEDIATELY DO SO!

    John Petersen has posted an article, Understanding The Mechanics And Incentives In Axion Power's PIPE which is a must-read and also a Seeking Alpha editor's pick.

    Tom Konrad authored some articles in Forbes magazine that should be read. These are linked in the concentrators, so I won't duplicate them here.

    Regardless of anything else, the following from the prior concentrator seems to me to be important. If you've not read this stuff, as well as the above links, I believe you should do so.

    Axion share price is currently suffering under, apparently, the effects of a rather onerous, IMO, financing arrangement which may end up being highly dilutive. See the details of financing filing,
    "29. CERTAIN DEFINITIONS", item (k) "Company Conversion Price" on page 36, (ii) "Pre-Installment Conversion Price" detailed on page 43, and (xx) "VWAP" on page 45, all in the provided link, so that you can check my math. The VWAP determination may not match my calculations, although I would be surprised if it didn't.

    Also keep in mind when you read the sections that these calculations can be overridden to a lower price, 85% of the VWAP on the last trading day before the share issuance.

    The problem with the financing, IMO, is that the financiers cannot lose. In fact, over the long term if Axion is successful the financiers profit the greatest the more shares they own at a lower price, just as we would. They get a guaranteed lower price than we can get though. This provides an incentive for them to drive price as low as possible because the details of the financing deal give them shares at ever-decreasing prices very likely at or below the then-current share price, which can be immediately sold (if they've not shorted already) into the market, driving the price even lower. Folks more knowledgeable than I have commented in the APCs on theses PIPE (Private Investment Public Equity) financing deals and the vultures they attract.

    Possibly supporting my take on this is that just before the notice of effectiveness for the financing deal, on 6/4/2013 IIRC, we had a big jump in the semimonthly short reports for 5/15/2013, 5/31/2013 and now 6/14/2013. The first one, 5/15, didn't cause me much concern because it could be just normal MM daily shorts, as explained here. The 6/14 volume, 1,187,574, also didn't cause me much concern, but only because of the daily shorts reported during that time-frame, mentioned in this comment. Some discussion of my thoughts about all this are in a comment on a prior instablog.

    Some folks, based on the prohibitions mentioned here against a net short position, may think that shorting buy the financiers is not allowed. Please note the distinction between "short position" and "net short position". My take is that hedging their long positions by going short would not violate the prohibition. Since there will be a bias towards downward price pressure anyway until "big news" emerges, I think that shorting for both hedging and driving price down will occur to allow accumulation of a greater number of shares by the financiers.

    With all this in mind, I added a line to my daily EOD postings in the APC that shows my estimated next issue price if it went off that day. I also show a bit of its history so that the progression (regression?) trend can be seen.

    The last thing I want to mention related to this is the fails to deliver. As mentioned in a previous blog, I had been expecting this to show increased activity and it did. In light of the increased semimonthly short report volumes, I expected this to become a trend and that seems to have occurred.. There's a link below to that instablog, which is updated about every two weeks as new data becomes available. Unfortunately, the data is available too late to be of much use other than for confirming or debunking my suspicions.

    With the publication of the Forbes article, there seems to have been change in daily short sales. My feeling is that we can't see any real sustained price appreciation without "normal" market-making activity and the volume (liquidity) that should accompany it. When we have those, we have the possibility of sustained trends, both up and down, giving us the "waves" necessary for traders and investors to have confidence in the risk/reward profiles, permitting them to enter the market with the hope of doing well.

    For some time we did not have "normal" market-making, as detailed when John Petersen posted back in January about a big drop in the daily short sales starting back in November of '12. Interestingly, this was about the same time we all thought the "big uglies" were exhausted and I also posted that I thought we might be starting a move up, which we did. Go figure!

    Daily short sales trended back to normal for some time and then again dropped to abnormally low levels prior to the Forbes articles. Subsequent to the Forbes articles they have now trended up into the normal areas and should bounce around there as long as we have good volume and no extended further severe depreciation in price. This seems to be an effect of having more market-makers active as when we have ATDF, NITE, CDEL as the only active MMs we seem to have extended periods of very low daily short sales. Currently we have those, ARCA, BNCH, BTIG, ETRF, CSTI, PERT and TEJS all more active and aggressive than formerly. Not aggressive, but appearing usually "in the background", off and on, are PUMA, MAXM, RAFF and VERT (infrequent). This increase in number of "active" market-makers and increased aggressiveness, for all but ATDF which has always been so, began with the PIPE financing.

    I believe that regardless of this increase and daily shorts returning to "normal" trends, we will have continued price depression until big news appears.

    I discussed this in a little more detail in my prior blog, which is in the list of links below.

    Regardless of the validity of daily short sales supporting John's thesis that the "big uglies" are out, his thesis is, IMO, valid and supported by AXPW Fails-to-deliver Charts 2/11/2013, with data through the current latest reporting period. The updated data is made available about every two weeks and I update my instablog's charts shortly after each update becomes available. In summary, after a period of no fails to deliver they began to appear again when the PIPE financing was done. Not high, not consistent and not of long duration. But the return of them tells us there is something going on again related to failing to deliver shares in a normal T+3 period.

    At the same time, we had the semi-monthly short interest reports show a large and sustained increase in short interest. It continues only slightly reduced as of this writing. More extensive thoughts on this are also in the prior blog.

    What follows is my normal boilerplate and the long-time readers can skip on down to the charts.

    I've been manually collecting this data for about 18 months now while volume was low and it was therefore reasonable to do so. I'll stop when it gets too arduous unless I can craft a mechanized capture of most of the stuff.

    I've captured enough data now that I can reasonably expect to be able to detect patterns on the charts that may signal, somewhat reliably, when price moves are about to occur. To help more easily identify any useful patterns, I've made an instablog, Axion Power International (NASDAQ:AXPW) 2/13/2012 And Forward One Year Experimental Charts Snapshots. I've also added some lines to them that may assist in this. For anybody with an interest, I welcome any suggestions and/or help.

    I'll update this instablog daily as long as I can for anybody that might find it useful. The charts will stay near the top and the text updates detailing daily data and expressing my most recent thoughts will follow after the charts.

    I've arranged the chart segments in this instablog to put what I think are related stuff close together.

    This is the thirteenth installment of the original "AXPW: Some Intra-Day Trade Charting" instablogs I've started doing on Seeking Alpha. The others grew, as I added daily commentary and FINRA data, to the point I was afraid the load time might become an irritant for folks that have less internet bandwidth or older computing equipment so I've started rolling to a new one aperiodically.

    Versions subsequent to the original (latest to oldest) can be found here.

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 8/1/2013

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 7/1/2013

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 6/1/2013

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 5/1/2013

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 3/1/2013

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 02/01/2013

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 12/15/2012

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 11/14/2012

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 9/6/2012 - Xx/xx/2012

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 7/7/2012 - 9/5/2012

    In the below chart note that the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!

    (right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

    AXPW Intra-day Statistics Chart 201301001

    The following are modified inflection point calculations bracketing a price chart for comparison. Note that the false bullish moves and contrary moves of the 5-day has been eliminated.

    The two inflection points are calculated identically but differently from the original above. I have two different presentations of these newer versions. The top one has all periods on the same scale. The bottom one has longer periods on the left scale and shorter periods on the right scale. The hope is that shorter period changes will be easier to spot because of both the increased visual scale and the offset from the zero point of the long-term scale. More work to do, this is a start, hopefully.

    I've identified some changes I want to try on the new inflection point calculations but haven't had time to implement them yet. I'll work them in over time after a little experimentation.

    Comments and further suggestions welcome.

    (right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

    AXPW Intra-day Statistics Chart Test IP Calculations 20131001

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", inflection point calculations values, and end-of-week 85% PIPE price factors are now only in the latest daily comment - attempting to keep things shorter for faster loading.

    09/30/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 95, MinTrSz: 203, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol: 585803, AvTrSz: 6166
    Min. Pr: 0.1200, Max Pr: 0.1270, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1224
    # Buys, Shares: 29 180785, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1233
    # Sells, Shares: 66 405018, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1220
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.24 (30.9% "buys"), DlyShts 97900 (16.71%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 24.17%

    Daily short sales continue the pattern - today it's on the upswing within the low levels.

    The buy percentage recovered some from yesterday's 11%. I still don't think it means anything going forward for price right now.

    Price spread, at 5.83%, is moderately higher than yesterday's 5%.

    ARCA was in from the start today and the result was as an immediate stepping down from an ask of $0.1255 to $0.121 from 09:30 to 09:35. It looks like ARCA and BTIG were the contestants driving offers lower during this period. Subsequently we did see some recovery to the $0.125, but only briefly. Most of the day the offers were at or below $0.1230 and deteriorated further to less than $0.1220 from 10:52 onward. There were a couple brief interludes when we hit $0.122 as the day progressed, but the didn't hold long.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    09/30: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1268, x 85%: $0.1078

    Vol, in K, for above days: 585.80.

    It's become apparent that my inflection points serve little purpose in this environment. I'll forgo any further discussion of them until such time as they may be come useful ... many months from now I guess.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are omitted from the concentrator.

    Week ending values related to the PIPE 85% share pricing:
    06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 VWAP $0.2122
    06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 VWAP $0.1751
    06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 VWAP $0.1474
    07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 VWAP $0.1518
    07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 VWAP $0.1403
    07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 VWAP $0.1543
    07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 VWAP $0.1555
    08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 VWAP $0.1733
    08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 VWAP $0.1410
    08/16: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1447, x 85%: $0.1230 VWAP $0.1348
    08/23: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1423, x 85%: $0.1210 VWAP $0.1337
    08/30: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1378, x 85%: $0.1171 VWAP $0.1343
    09/06: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1351, x 85%: $0.1148 VWAP $0.1330
    09/13: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1327, x 85%: $0.1128 VWAP $0.1285
    09/20: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1301, x 85%: $0.1105 VWAP $0.1256
    09/27: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1273, x 85%: $0.1082 VWAP $0.1227

    Vol, in thousands, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731, 3889, 6920, 6,522, 2,285, 2,080 (short week), 4,178, 2,929, 3439.

    On my ORIGINAL inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
    ---- 1-day change ----
    09/19 -14.2% -04.8% +01.1% -02.4% +00.5% -02.3%
    09/20 -25.5% +06.8% +02.1% +00.8% -02.7% -01.3%
    09/23 -04.7% +02.3% +04.6% +00.4% -01.6% -01.0%
    09/24 -44.5% -09.8% -09.6% -07.6% -04.4% -03.2%
    09/25 +10.4% +08.1% +02.1% -01.1% -01.4% +00.6%
    09/26 +04.8% -01.6% +03.9% -02.9% -01.5% -01.4%
    09/27 -02.9% -11.5% +06.1% -01.3% -02.3% -00.3%
    09/30 +04.4% +00.5% -01.6% -00.2% -02.7% -01.3%
    ---- 5-day change ----
    09/19 -013.0% +044.0% +060.8% -031.0% +026.7% -015.9%
    09/20 -086.9% +157.6% +052.0% -003.5% -047.4% +003.6%
    09/23 -169.1% +242.4% +2764.0% +027.7% +013.5% +014.3%
    09/24 -1259.9% -466.4% -176.2% -116.5% -073.7% -046.6%
    09/25 +016.7% +128.1% +125.0% -001.4% +007.1% +026.4%
    09/26 +025.0% +086.7% +344.2% -007.5% -021.9% +010.4%
    09/27 +033.6% -264.4% +104.2% -021.2% +001.7% +015.2%
    09/30 +032.3% -014.9% -078.9% -004.8% -012.5% -006.5%
    ---- 5-day rate of change ----
    09/19 -014.4% +485.5% -028.8% +007.6% +1115.6% -014.0%
    09/20 -089.0% +055.5% -092.2% -036.1% -154.9% -025.2%
    09/23 -232.6% -023.7% +318.0% -024.6% +083.0% +011.2%
    09/24 -571.5% -195.6% -421.4% -218.9% -1984.0% -177.2%
    09/25 -007.6% +139.5% +120.1% -051.5% +046.3% +092.2%
    09/26 +018.6% +025.5% +137.1% +012.8% -118.0% +793.9%
    09/27 +063.7% -242.1% +091.0% -044.2% +034.3% +042.8%
    09/30 +060.3% -034.1% -135.9% -035.2% -051.2% -063.3%

    On my NEWER inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
    ---- 1-day change ----
    09/19 -010.73% -003.03% +003.18% +000.41% +004.73% +001.19%
    09/20 -021.27% +009.54% +005.00% +004.89% +001.82% +004.30%
    09/23 -007.52% -001.28% +000.64% -006.40% -009.34% -009.88%
    09/24 -045.51% -011.06% -011.62% -011.81% -009.66% -009.09%
    09/25 +013.38% +012.23% +007.08% +005.47% +006.02% +009.77%
    09/26 +009.59% +004.53% +010.35% +006.27% +009.75% +011.72%
    09/27 -002.76% -011.77% +006.46% -001.33% -002.71% +000.39%
    09/30 +005.10% +001.40% -000.65% +001.32% -002.15% +000.56%
    ---- 5-day change ----
    09/19 -013.59% +041.03% -081.70% -136.44% +007.89% -079.98%
    09/20 -077.68% +659.64% +1807.89% +087.03% +095.57% +087.70%
    09/23 -114.02% -020.63% +014.81% -619.30% -3248.35% -589.69%
    09/24 -3625.34% -438.30% -223.14% -205.99% -205.60% -147.17%
    09/25 +024.10% +154.74% +190.24% +060.25% +069.54% +088.25%
    09/26 +034.39% +090.19% +127.35% +096.14% +102.89% +474.48%
    09/27 +035.34% -132.82% +005.45% -2459.31% -2767.55% -045.74%
    09/30 +053.84% +051.64% -008.87% +114.69% +159.53% +213.07%
    ---- 5-day rate of change ----
    09/19 -015.67% +690.47% -049.83% -034.51% -025.96% -058.91%
    09/20 -082.35% +083.40% -001.77% +105.85% +362.16% +269.53%
    09/23 -157.28% -033.31% -042.13% -064.80% -079.91% -054.87%
    09/24 -845.53% -194.86% -448.51% -331.87% -1060.17% -266.92%
    09/25 -004.88% +149.01% +131.18% +064.12% +092.69% +121.27%
    09/26 +022.60% +067.76% +187.87% +234.31% +452.01% +521.60%
    09/27 +062.13% -164.47% -027.72% -203.67% -198.10% -067.56%
    09/30 +076.28% +035.47% -020.37% +210.74% +307.57% +287.37%

    Rolling 5-day ORIGINAL inflection point calculation aggregate change:
    ******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
    09/19 5 Day +0828.14 -0050.45 -0024.21 -0597.88 -0662.02 -1491.96
    09/20 5 Day +0108.52 +0029.04 -0011.63 -0618.70 -0975.58 -1438.98
    09/23 5 Day -0074.94 +0099.43 +0309.72 -0447.54 -0843.94 -1233.39
    09/24 5 Day -1019.15 -0364.30 -0236.01 -0969.09 -1465.71 -1808.28
    09/25 5 Day -0849.04 +0102.40 +0059.04 -0982.23 -1361.43 -1330.75
    09/26 5 Day -0636.98 +0191.16 +0262.24 -1056.31 -1660.19 -1191.80
    09/27 5 Day -0422.77 -0314.26 +0535.58 -1279.81 -1631.22 -1010.40
    09/30 5 Day -0286.04 -0360.99 +0113.18 -1341.13 -1835.44 -1076.21

    Average change/day, 5 days
    ____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
    09/19 +341.34 +085.99 +114.71 +121.10 +088.01 +172.59
    09/20 +037.60 +133.75 +008.97 +077.40 -048.29 +129.16
    09/23 -049.86 +102.03 +037.48 +058.35 -008.19 +143.58
    09/24 -334.80 -097.51 -120.48 -069.39 -170.67 -110.82
    09/25 -360.09 +038.49 +024.16 -105.14 -091.59 -008.65
    09/26 -293.02 +048.32 +057.29 -091.69 -199.63 +060.03
    09/27 -106.26 -068.66 +109.44 -132.22 -131.13 +085.72
    09/30 -042.22 -092.08 -039.31 -178.72 -198.30 +031.44

    Rolling 5-day NEWER inflection point calculation aggregate change:
    ******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
    09/19 5 Day +0114.10 -0003.66 +0002.23 -0085.75 -0090.97 -0336.08
    09/20 5 Day +0025.47 +0020.50 +0042.55 -0011.12 -0004.03 -0041.35
    09/23 5 Day -0003.57 +0016.27 +0048.85 -0080.01 -0134.99 -0285.16
    09/24 5 Day -0133.04 -0055.04 -0060.15 -0244.81 -0412.53 -0704.82
    09/25 5 Day -0100.98 +0030.13 +0054.28 -0097.31 -0125.64 -0082.79
    09/26 5 Day -0066.25 +0057.31 +0123.40 -0003.76 +0003.63 +0310.04
    09/27 5 Day -0042.84 -0018.81 +0130.13 -0096.12 -0096.83 +0168.23
    09/30 5 Day -0019.77 -0009.09 +0118.59 +0014.12 +0057.64 +0526.68

    Average change/day, 5 days
    ____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
    09/19 +0046.47 +0012.78 +0013.63 +0020.25 +0008.25 +0035.12
    09/20 +0008.20 +0023.44 +0013.39 +0041.69 +0038.14 +0129.77
    09/23 -0004.70 +0015.64 +0007.75 +0014.68 +0007.66 +0058.57
    09/24 -0044.44 -0014.83 -0027.00 -0034.03 -0073.55 -0097.76
    09/25 -0046.60 +0007.27 +0008.42 -0012.21 -0005.38 +0020.79
    09/26 -0036.07 +0012.19 +0024.23 +0016.40 +0018.92 +0129.23
    09/27 -0013.66 -0007.86 +0017.52 -0017.00 -0018.56 +0041.92
    09/30 -0003.24 -0005.07 +0013.95 +0018.83 +0038.53 +0162.37

    2013 Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
    Mon. 01/07: 45.09% 77.18% 52.53% 36.35% 52.72%
    Mon. 01/14: 27.99% 0.70% 48.48% 11.09% 11.21%
    Tue. 01/22: 00.26% 23.79% 12.89% 8.36%
    Mon. 01/28: 69.26% 42.03% 7.96% 0.00% 28.33%
    Mon. 02/04: 17.36% 28.73% 18.53% 12.68% 39.65%
    Mon. 02/11: 25.67% 5.99% 16.57% 17.04% 8.23%
    Tue. 02/19: 19.57% 19.88% 10.17% 30.54%
    Mon. 02/25: 2.88% 55.65% 28.57% 6.95% 0.28%
    Mon. 03/04: 100.79% 18.46% 11.55% 21.97% 3.61%
    Mon. 03/11: 25.81% 9.64% 1.35% 13.40% 0.00%
    Mon. 03/18: 7.10% 5.65% 9.26% 25.15% 9.02%
    Mon. 03/25: 1.47% 14.69% 4.15% 25.64%
    Mon. 04/01: 4.74% 11.82% 19.85% 3.42% 0.59%
    Mon. 04/08: 8.01% 9.51% 13.54% 0.00% 6.62%
    Mon. 04/15: 2.68% 8.94% 5.64% 1.67% 18.45%
    Mon. 04/22: 0.42% 4.90% 690.95% 39.86% 22.22%
    Mon. 04/29: 5.98% 14.04% 17.33% 13.58% 150.50%
    Mon. 05/06: 9.96% 9.15% 114.65% 53.10% 39.36%
    Mon. 05/13: 33.94% 54.27% 29.90% 61.57% 104.44%
    Mon. 05/20: 92.10% 132.60% 34.23% 55.97%
    Tue. 05/28: 76.82% 109.81% 28.64% 150.02%
    Mon. 06/03: 62.23% 62.24% 44.26% 98.99% 27.30%
    Mon. 06/10: 26.26% 40.92% 28.42% 82.06% 81.55%
    Mon. 06/17: 49.37% 57.96% 18.60% 26.64% 25.50%
    Mon. 06/24: 43.95% 23.12% 22.40% 46.88% 15.07%
    Mon. 07/01: 61.06% 35.37% 12.65% holiday 16.46%
    Mon. 07/08: 67.49% 14.84% 30.80% 11.23% 29.49%
    Mon. 07/15: 35.95% 61.87% 96.37% 16.17% 26.04%
    Mon. 07/22: 41.69% 48.41% 56.32% 48.74% 18.16%
    Mon. 07/29: 122.28% 52.08% 74.77% 74.49% 14.88%
    Mon. 08/05: 39.11% 15.18% 26.37% 48.80% 11.41%
    Mon. 08/12: 55.46% 42.24% 5.87% 43.65% 24.39%
    Mon. 08/19: 46.64% 27.52% 2.56% 13.12% 17.70%
    Mon. 08/26: 37.98% 7.04% 14.39% 23.85% 12.50%
    Tue. 09/03: 9.29% 34.87% 3.29% 6.14%
    Mon. 09/09: 16.71% 16.28% 26.78% 37.54% 20.75%
    Mon. 09/16: 13.75% 19.05% 6.49% 13.42% 0.00%
    Mon. 09/23: 13.81% 8.28% 30.17% 16.94% 8.34%
    Mon. 09:30: 24.17%

    === 2012 ===
    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
    Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%

    ============ 2013 ===============
    Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 262.58%
    Feb Avg: 20.90%, min: 2.88%, max: 55.65%
    Mar Avg: 15.42%, min: 0.00%, max: 100.79%
    Apr Avg: 40.63%, min: 0.00%, max: 690.95%
    May Avg: 67.58%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%
    Jun Avg: 47.48%, min: 15.07%, max: 98.99%
    Jul Avg: 44.47%, min: 11.23%, max: 122.28%
    Aug Avg: 30.24%, min: 2.56%, max: 86.11%
    Sep Avg: 16.30%, min: 0.00%, max: 37.54%

    09/27/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 79, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 428346, AvTrSz: 5422
    Min. Pr: 0.1200, Max Pr: 0.1260 VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1227
    # Buys, Shares: 7 47000, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1226
    # Sells, Shares: 72 381346, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1227
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:8.11 (11.0% "buys"), DlyShts 31800 (7.42%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 8.34%

    Daily short sales continue dropping a bit from yesterday's volume and percentage.

    Sadly, the buy percentage collapsed from yesterday's 32.4%. Yesterday I said "... I don't think it'll hold up - the market action generally doesn't support a belief that it will". I had hoped the PIPErs would at least have the courtesy to let us done gently.

    Price spread decreased to 5% from ~7.1% yesterday. Let's hope it settles into a more normal range soon. I don't expect any big buying spree while volatility remains so high.

    ARCA didn't show up until around 14:20. Coming that late they had little effect - price had already been pushed down to $0.121x a couple time by ATDF, BTIG and NITE. The buy:sell of 1:8.11 tells the story of why we closed at $0.1201.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    09/23: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1295, x 85%: $0.1101
    09/24: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1288, x 85%: $0.1095
    09/25: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1282, x 85%: $0.1090
    09/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1278, x 85%: $0.1086
    09/27: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1273, x 85%: $0.1082

    Vol, in K, for above days: 496.32, 1,314.62, 535.93, 663.40, 428.35.

    It's become apparent that my inflection points serve little purpose in this environment. I'll forgo any further discussion of them until such time as they may be come useful ... many months from now I guess.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are omitted from the concentrator.

    Week ending values related to the PIPE 85% share pricing:
    06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 VWAP $0.2122
    06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 VWAP $0.1751
    06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 VWAP $0.1474
    07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 VWAP $0.1518
    07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 VWAP $0.1403
    07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 VWAP $0.1543
    07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 VWAP $0.1555
    08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 VWAP $0.1733
    08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 VWAP $0.1410
    08/16: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1447, x 85%: $0.1230 VWAP $0.1348
    08/23: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1423, x 85%: $0.1210 VWAP $0.1337
    08/30: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1378, x 85%: $0.1171 VWAP $0.1343
    09/06: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1351, x 85%: $0.1148 VWAP $0.1330
    09/13: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1327, x 85%: $0.1128 VWAP $0.1285
    09/20: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1301, x 85%: $0.1105 VWAP $0.1256

    Vol, in thousands, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731, 3889, 6920, 6,522, 2,285, 2,080 (short week), 4,178, 2,929.

    On my ORIGINAL inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
    ---- 1-day change ----
    09/18 +03.4% -09.2% -02.0% -01.0% -02.3% -02.1%
    09/19 -14.2% -04.8% +01.1% -02.4% +00.5% -02.3%
    09/20 -25.5% +06.8% +02.1% +00.8% -02.7% -01.3%
    09/23 -04.7% +02.3% +04.6% +00.4% -01.6% -01.0%
    09/24 -44.5% -09.8% -09.6% -07.6% -04.4% -03.2%
    09/25 +10.4% +08.1% +02.1% -01.1% -01.4% +00.6%
    09/26 +04.8% -01.6% +03.9% -02.9% -01.5% -01.4%
    09/27 -02.9% -11.5% +06.1% -01.3% -02.3% -00.3%
    ---- 5-day change ----
    09/18 +045.3% -173.1% -116.9% +026.6% -047.5% -002.7%
    09/19 -013.0% +044.0% +060.8% -031.0% +026.7% -015.9%
    09/20 -086.9% +157.6% +052.0% -003.5% -047.4% +003.6%
    09/23 -169.1% +242.4% +2764.0% +027.7% +013.5% +014.3%
    09/24 -1259.9% -466.4% -176.2% -116.5% -073.7% -046.6%
    09/25 +016.7% +128.1% +125.0% -001.4% +007.1% +026.4%
    09/26 +025.0% +086.7% +344.2% -007.5% -021.9% +010.4%
    09/27 +033.6% -264.4% +104.2% -021.2% +001.7% +015.2%
    ---- 5-day rate of change ----
    09/18 +068.0% -013.2% -047.4% +346.3% -089.8% +032.6%
    09/19 -014.4% +485.5% -028.8% +007.6% +1115.6% -014.0%
    09/20 -089.0% +055.5% -092.2% -036.1% -154.9% -025.2%
    09/23 -232.6% -023.7% +318.0% -024.6% +083.0% +011.2%
    09/24 -571.5% -195.6% -421.4% -218.9% -1984.0% -177.2%
    09/25 -007.6% +139.5% +120.1% -051.5% +046.3% +092.2%
    09/26 +018.6% +025.5% +137.1% +012.8% -118.0% +793.9%
    09/27 +063.7% -242.1% +091.0% -044.2% +034.3% +042.8%

    On my NEWER inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
    ---- 1-day change ----
    09/18 +002.03% -010.80% -003.92% -003.87% -005.90% -006.41%
    09/19 -010.73% -003.03% +003.18% +000.41% +004.73% +001.19%
    09/20 -021.27% +009.54% +005.00% +004.89% +001.82% +004.30%
    09/23 -007.52% -001.28% +000.64% -006.40% -009.34% -009.88%
    09/24 -045.51% -011.06% -011.62% -011.81% -009.66% -009.09%
    09/25 +013.38% +012.23% +007.08% +005.47% +006.02% +009.77%
    09/26 +009.59% +004.53% +010.35% +006.27% +009.75% +011.72%
    09/27 -002.76% -011.77% +006.46% -001.33% -002.71% +000.39%
    ---- 5-day change ----
    09/18 +048.14% -132.49% -083.72% +051.43% -120.59% +013.55%
    09/19 -013.59% +041.03% -081.70% -136.44% +007.89% -079.98%
    09/20 -077.68% +659.64% +1807.89% +087.03% +095.57% +087.70%
    09/23 -114.02% -020.63% +014.81% -619.30% -3248.35% -589.69%
    09/24 -3625.34% -438.30% -223.14% -205.99% -205.60% -147.17%
    09/25 +024.10% +154.74% +190.24% +060.25% +069.54% +088.25%
    09/26 +034.39% +090.19% +127.35% +096.14% +102.89% +474.48%
    09/27 +035.34% -132.82% +005.45% -2459.31% -2767.55% -045.74%
    ---- 5-day rate of change ----
    09/18 +068.20% +037.96% -046.67% +087.36% -062.99% +016.69%
    09/19 -015.67% +690.47% -049.83% -034.51% -025.96% -058.91%
    09/20 -082.35% +083.40% -001.77% +105.85% +362.16% +269.53%
    09/23 -157.28% -033.31% -042.13% -064.80% -079.91% -054.87%
    09/24 -845.53% -194.86% -448.51% -331.87% -1060.17% -266.92%
    09/25 -004.88% +149.01% +131.18% +064.12% +092.69% +121.27%
    09/26 +022.60% +067.76% +187.87% +234.31% +452.01% +521.60%
    09/27 +062.13% -164.47% -027.72% -203.67% -198.10% -067.56%

    Rolling 5-day ORIGINAL inflection point calculation aggregate change:
    ******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
    09/18 5 Day +0951.43 -0090.07 -0061.78 -0456.53 -0903.50 -1287.49
    09/19 5 Day +0828.14 -0050.45 -0024.21 -0597.88 -0662.02 -1491.96
    09/20 5 Day +0108.52 +0029.04 -0011.63 -0618.70 -0975.58 -1438.98
    09/23 5 Day -0074.94 +0099.43 +0309.72 -0447.54 -0843.94 -1233.39
    09/24 5 Day -1019.15 -0364.30 -0236.01 -0969.09 -1465.71 -1808.28
    09/25 5 Day -0849.04 +0102.40 +0059.04 -0982.23 -1361.43 -1330.75
    09/26 5 Day -0636.98 +0191.16 +0262.24 -1056.31 -1660.19 -1191.80
    09/27 5 Day -0422.77 -0314.26 +0535.58 -1279.81 -1631.22 -1010.40

    Average change/day, 5 days
    ____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
    09/18 +398.59 -022.31 +160.99 +112.53 +007.24 +200.74
    09/19 +341.34 +085.99 +114.71 +121.10 +088.01 +172.59
    09/20 +037.60 +133.75 +008.97 +077.40 -048.29 +129.16
    09/23 -049.86 +102.03 +037.48 +058.35 -008.19 +143.58
    09/24 -334.80 -097.51 -120.48 -069.39 -170.67 -110.82
    09/25 -360.09 +038.49 +024.16 -105.14 -091.59 -008.65
    09/26 -293.02 +048.32 +057.29 -091.69 -199.63 +060.03
    09/27 -106.26 -068.66 +109.44 -132.22 -131.13 +085.72

    Rolling 5-day NEWER inflection point calculation aggregate change:
    ******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
    09/18 5 Day +0132.04 -0006.21 +0012.19 -0036.27 -0098.76 -0186.74
    09/19 5 Day +0114.10 -0003.66 +0002.23 -0085.75 -0090.97 -0336.08
    09/20 5 Day +0025.47 +0020.50 +0042.55 -0011.12 -0004.03 -0041.35
    09/23 5 Day -0003.57 +0016.27 +0048.85 -0080.01 -0134.99 -0285.16
    09/24 5 Day -0133.04 -0055.04 -0060.15 -0244.81 -0412.53 -0704.82
    09/25 5 Day -0100.98 +0030.13 +0054.28 -0097.31 -0125.64 -0082.79
    09/26 5 Day -0066.25 +0057.31 +0123.40 -0003.76 +0003.63 +0310.04
    09/27 5 Day -0042.84 -0018.81 +0130.13 -0096.12 -0096.83 +0168.23

    Average change/day, 5 days
    ____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
    09/18 +0055.11 -0002.16 +0027.16 +0030.92 +0011.14 +0085.46
    09/19 +0046.47 +0012.78 +0013.63 +0020.25 +0008.25 +0035.12
    09/20 +0008.20 +0023.44 +0013.39 +0041.69 +0038.14 +0129.77
    09/23 -0004.70 +0015.64 +0007.75 +0014.68 +0007.66 +0058.57
    09/24 -0044.44 -0014.83 -0027.00 -0034.03 -0073.55 -0097.76
    09/25 -0046.60 +0007.27 +0008.42 -0012.21 -0005.38 +0020.79
    09/26 -0036.07 +0012.19 +0024.23 +0016.40 +0018.92 +0129.23
    09/27 -0013.66 -0007.86 +0017.52 -0017.00 -0018.56 +0041.92

    2013 Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
    Mon. 01/07: 45.09% 77.18% 52.53% 36.35% 52.72%
    Mon. 01/14: 27.99% 0.70% 48.48% 11.09% 11.21%
    Tue. 01/22: 00.26% 23.79% 12.89% 8.36%
    Mon. 01/28: 69.26% 42.03% 7.96% 0.00% 28.33%
    Mon. 02/04: 17.36% 28.73% 18.53% 12.68% 39.65%
    Mon. 02/11: 25.67% 5.99% 16.57% 17.04% 8.23%
    Tue. 02/19: 19.57% 19.88% 10.17% 30.54%
    Mon. 02/25: 2.88% 55.65% 28.57% 6.95% 0.28%
    Mon. 03/04: 100.79% 18.46% 11.55% 21.97% 3.61%
    Mon. 03/11: 25.81% 9.64% 1.35% 13.40% 0.00%
    Mon. 03/18: 7.10% 5.65% 9.26% 25.15% 9.02%
    Mon. 03/25: 1.47% 14.69% 4.15% 25.64%
    Mon. 04/01: 4.74% 11.82% 19.85% 3.42% 0.59%
    Mon. 04/08: 8.01% 9.51% 13.54% 0.00% 6.62%
    Mon. 04/15: 2.68% 8.94% 5.64% 1.67% 18.45%
    Mon. 04/22: 0.42% 4.90% 690.95% 39.86% 22.22%
    Mon. 04/29: 5.98% 14.04% 17.33% 13.58% 150.50%
    Mon. 05/06: 9.96% 9.15% 114.65% 53.10% 39.36%
    Mon. 05/13: 33.94% 54.27% 29.90% 61.57% 104.44%
    Mon. 05/20: 92.10% 132.60% 34.23% 55.97%
    Tue. 05/28: 76.82% 109.81% 28.64% 150.02%
    Mon. 06/03: 62.23% 62.24% 44.26% 98.99% 27.30%
    Mon. 06/10: 26.26% 40.92% 28.42% 82.06% 81.55%
    Mon. 06/17: 49.37% 57.96% 18.60% 26.64% 25.50%
    Mon. 06/24: 43.95% 23.12% 22.40% 46.88% 15.07%
    Mon. 07/01: 61.06% 35.37% 12.65% holiday 16.46%
    Mon. 07/08: 67.49% 14.84% 30.80% 11.23% 29.49%
    Mon. 07/15: 35.95% 61.87% 96.37% 16.17% 26.04%
    Mon. 07/22: 41.69% 48.41% 56.32% 48.74% 18.16%
    Mon. 07/29: 122.28% 52.08% 74.77% 74.49% 14.88%
    Mon. 08/05: 39.11% 15.18% 26.37% 48.80% 11.41%
    Mon. 08/12: 55.46% 42.24% 5.87% 43.65% 24.39%
    Mon. 08/19: 46.64% 27.52% 2.56% 13.12% 17.70%
    Mon. 08/26: 37.98% 7.04% 14.39% 23.85% 12.50%
    Tue. 09/03: 9.29% 34.87% 3.29% 6.14%
    Mon. 09/09: 16.71% 16.28% 26.78% 37.54% 20.75%
    Mon. 09/16: 13.75% 19.05% 6.49% 13.42% 0.00%
    Mon. 09/23: 13.81% 8.28% 30.17% 16.94% 8.34%

    === 2012 ===
    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
    Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%

    ============ 2013 ===============
    Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 262.58%
    Feb Avg: 20.90%, min: 2.88%, max: 55.65%
    Mar Avg: 15.42%, min: 0.00%, max: 100.79%
    Apr Avg: 40.63%, min: 0.00%, max: 690.95%
    May Avg: 67.58%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%
    Jun Avg: 47.48%, min: 15.07%, max: 98.99%
    Jul Avg: 44.47%, min: 11.23%, max: 122.28%
    Aug Avg: 30.24%, min: 2.56%, max: 86.11%
    Sep Avg: 15.89%, min: 0.00%, max: 37.54%

    09/26/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 89, MinTrSz: 250, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 663400, AvTrSz: 7454
    Min. Pr: 0.1200, Max Pr: 0.1285, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1232
    # Buys, Shares: 29 215025, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1250
    # Sells, Shares: 60 448375, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1224
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.09 (32.4% "buys"), DlyShts 75975 (11.45%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 16.94%

    Daily short sales continue the normal vacillation at a low level, today dropping a bit from yesterday's volume and percentage. Nothing to see here - move along, move along.

    The buy percentage drew back a little from yesterday's 35%. Although it looks good at over 30%, I don't think it'll hold up - the market action generally doesn't support a belief that it will.

    Price spread increased to ~7.1% today, relegating the two recent more normal readings, 4.17% and ~3.78%, which I remarked yesterday were "... foolishly trying to continue a trend begun with yesterday's ~3.78%. Good luck with that!".

    ARCA again made a late entrance, this time just before 13:00. Similar to yesterday, ATDF, BTIG and NITE carried the drop-the-ask ball until ARCA appeared. They were again obviously inexperienced in this facet of the game - they let trade price rise as high as $0.1285 from the early $0.1240 level. Well, needles to sat ARCA straightened that out, taking us to $0.12 in short order, where we unfortunately closed.

    The bids, which were all upward prior to ARCA's entry promptly adjusted downward and mad no move up that I saw for the rest of the day.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    09/23: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1295, x 85%: $0.1101
    09/24: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1288, x 85%: $0.1095
    09/25: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1282, x 85%: $0.1090
    09/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1278, x 85%: $0.1086

    Vol, in K, for above days: 496.32, 1,314.62, 535.93, 663.40.

    My original inflection point calculations' one-day changes have five of the six periods mildly weakening.

    The change over five days has four weakening periods. The rate of change over five days has only two periods weakening. Only one of the periods showing strengthening has a robust change though.

    My newer calculations' one-day changes are showing mild reduction in strengthening for the two shortest periods and marginal strengthening for the four longer-term periods. All are still positive numbers, but not strongly so. The changes over five days are all still positive numbers, but mixed with the 10 and 25-day periods showing reducing strengthening and the others showing strengthening of various magnitudes. Nothing striking in the presentation though.

    The rate of change over the five days again has five of the six periods (this time all but the 10-day period) showing some strengthening. All are positive readings.

    I wouldn't be looking for any guidance in these numbers for now though. The volatility is just too high. We need to see some sustained trends that result in recognizable patterns on the charts first.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are omitted from the concentrator.

    Week ending values related to the PIPE 85% share pricing:
    06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 VWAP $0.2122
    06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 VWAP $0.1751
    06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 VWAP $0.1474
    07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 VWAP $0.1518
    07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 VWAP $0.1403
    07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 VWAP $0.1543
    07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 VWAP $0.1555
    08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 VWAP $0.1733
    08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 VWAP $0.1410
    08/16: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1447, x 85%: $0.1230 VWAP $0.1348
    08/23: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1423, x 85%: $0.1210 VWAP $0.1337
    08/30: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1378, x 85%: $0.1171 VWAP $0.1343
    09/06: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1351, x 85%: $0.1148 VWAP $0.1330
    09/13: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1327, x 85%: $0.1128 VWAP $0.1285
    09/20: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1301, x 85%: $0.1105 VWAP $0.1256

    Vol, in thousands, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731, 3889, 6920, 6,522, 2,285, 2,080 (short week), 4,178, 2,929.

    On my ORIGINAL inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
    ---- 1-day change ----
    09/17 +27.0% +07.6% -01.4% -02.4% -00.1% -00.1%
    09/18 +03.4% -09.2% -02.0% -01.0% -02.3% -02.1%
    09/19 -14.2% -04.8% +01.1% -02.4% +00.5% -02.3%
    09/20 -25.5% +06.8% +02.1% +00.8% -02.7% -01.3%
    09/23 -04.7% +02.3% +04.6% +00.4% -01.6% -01.0%
    09/24 -44.5% -09.8% -09.6% -07.6% -04.4% -03.2%
    09/25 +10.4% +08.1% +02.1% -01.1% -01.4% +00.6%
    09/26 +04.8% -01.6% +03.9% -02.9% -01.5% -01.4%
    ---- 5-day change ----
    09/17 +275.6% +130.0% +199.6% +015.8% +023.7% +035.7%
    09/18 +045.3% -173.1% -116.9% +026.6% -047.5% -002.7%
    09/19 -013.0% +044.0% +060.8% -031.0% +026.7% -015.9%
    09/20 -086.9% +157.6% +052.0% -003.5% -047.4% +003.6%
    09/23 -169.1% +242.4% +2764.0% +027.7% +013.5% +014.3%
    09/24 -1259.9% -466.4% -176.2% -116.5% -073.7% -046.6%
    09/25 +016.7% +128.1% +125.0% -001.4% +007.1% +026.4%
    09/26 +025.0% +086.7% +344.2% -007.5% -021.9% +010.4%
    ---- 5-day rate of change ----
    09/17 +056.2% +086.1% +000.8% +133.5% +056.5% +351.9%
    09/18 +068.0% -013.2% -047.4% +346.3% -089.8% +032.6%
    09/19 -014.4% +485.5% -028.8% +007.6% +1115.6% -014.0%
    09/20 -089.0% +055.5% -092.2% -036.1% -154.9% -025.2%
    09/23 -232.6% -023.7% +318.0% -024.6% +083.0% +011.2%
    09/24 -571.5% -195.6% -421.4% -218.9% -1984.0% -177.2%
    09/25 -007.6% +139.5% +120.1% -051.5% +046.3% +092.2%
    09/26 +018.6% +025.5% +137.1% +012.8% -118.0% +793.9%

    On my NEWER inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
    ---- 1-day change ----
    09/17 +027.86% +008.56% -000.16% -000.89% +002.12% +002.17%
    09/18 +002.03% -010.80% -003.92% -003.87% -005.90% -006.41%
    09/19 -010.73% -003.03% +003.18% +000.41% +004.73% +001.19%
    09/20 -021.27% +009.54% +005.00% +004.89% +001.82% +004.30%
    09/23 -007.52% -001.28% +000.64% -006.40% -009.34% -009.88%
    09/24 -045.51% -011.06% -011.62% -011.81% -009.66% -009.09%
    09/25 +013.38% +012.23% +007.08% +005.47% +006.02% +009.77%
    09/26 +009.59% +004.53% +010.35% +006.27% +009.75% +011.72%
    ---- 5-day change ----
    09/17 +347.32% +130.88% +639.79% +051.32% +074.16% +062.63%
    09/18 +048.14% -132.49% -083.72% +051.43% -120.59% +013.55%
    09/19 -013.59% +041.03% -081.70% -136.44% +007.89% -079.98%
    09/20 -077.68% +659.64% +1807.89% +087.03% +095.57% +087.70%
    09/23 -114.02% -020.63% +014.81% -619.30% -3248.35% -589.69%
    09/24 -3625.34% -438.30% -223.14% -205.99% -205.60% -147.17%
    09/25 +024.10% +154.74% +190.24% +060.25% +069.54% +088.25%
    09/26 +034.39% +090.19% +127.35% +096.14% +102.89% +474.48%
    ---- 5-day rate of change ----
    09/17 +058.22% +082.31% +000.56% +435.40% +031.01% +773.42%
    09/18 +068.20% +037.96% -046.67% +087.36% -062.99% +016.69%
    09/19 -015.67% +690.47% -049.83% -034.51% -025.96% -058.91%
    09/20 -082.35% +083.40% -001.77% +105.85% +362.16% +269.53%
    09/23 -157.28% -033.31% -042.13% -064.80% -079.91% -054.87%
    09/24 -845.53% -194.86% -448.51% -331.87% -1060.17% -266.92%
    09/25 -004.88% +149.01% +131.18% +064.12% +092.69% +121.27%
    09/26 +022.60% +067.76% +187.87% +234.31% +452.01% +521.60%

    Rolling 5-day ORIGINAL inflection point calculation aggregate change:
    ******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
    09/17 5 Day +0654.85 +0123.23 +0366.37 -0622.14 -0612.35 -1254.16
    09/18 5 Day +0951.43 -0090.07 -0061.78 -0456.53 -0903.50 -1287.49
    09/19 5 Day +0828.14 -0050.45 -0024.21 -0597.88 -0662.02 -1491.96
    09/20 5 Day +0108.52 +0029.04 -0011.63 -0618.70 -0975.58 -1438.98
    09/23 5 Day -0074.94 +0099.43 +0309.72 -0447.54 -0843.94 -1233.39
    09/24 5 Day -1019.15 -0364.30 -0236.01 -0969.09 -1465.71 -1808.28
    09/25 5 Day -0849.04 +0102.40 +0059.04 -0982.23 -1361.43 -1330.75
    09/26 5 Day -0636.98 +0191.16 +0262.24 -1056.31 -1660.19 -1191.80

    Average change/day, 5 days
    ____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
    09/17 +237.30 -019.71 +306.01 +025.21 +071.32 +151.37
    09/18 +398.59 -022.31 +160.99 +112.53 +007.24 +200.74
    09/19 +341.34 +085.99 +114.71 +121.10 +088.01 +172.59
    09/20 +037.60 +133.75 +008.97 +077.40 -048.29 +129.16
    09/23 -049.86 +102.03 +037.48 +058.35 -008.19 +143.58
    09/24 -334.80 -097.51 -120.48 -069.39 -170.67 -110.82
    09/25 -360.09 +038.49 +024.16 -105.14 -091.59 -008.65
    09/26 -293.02 +048.32 +057.29 -091.69 -199.63 +060.03

    Rolling 5-day NEWER inflection point calculation aggregate change:
    ******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
    09/17 5 Day +0089.13 +0019.12 +0074.84 -0074.67 -0044.77 -0216.01
    09/18 5 Day +0132.04 -0006.21 +0012.19 -0036.27 -0098.76 -0186.74
    09/19 5 Day +0114.10 -0003.66 +0002.23 -0085.75 -0090.97 -0336.08
    09/20 5 Day +0025.47 +0020.50 +0042.55 -0011.12 -0004.03 -0041.35
    09/23 5 Day -0003.57 +0016.27 +0048.85 -0080.01 -0134.99 -0285.16
    09/24 5 Day -0133.04 -0055.04 -0060.15 -0244.81 -0412.53 -0704.82
    09/25 5 Day -0100.98 +0030.13 +0054.28 -0097.31 -0125.64 -0082.79
    09/26 5 Day -0066.25 +0057.31 +0123.40 -0003.76 +0003.63 +0310.04

    Average change/day, 5 days
    ____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
    09/17 +0032.76 -0003.49 +0050.94 +0016.50 +0030.11 +0073.24
    09/18 +0055.11 -0002.16 +0027.16 +0030.92 +0011.14 +0085.46
    09/19 +0046.47 +0012.78 +0013.63 +0020.25 +0008.25 +0035.12
    09/20 +0008.20 +0023.44 +0013.39 +0041.69 +0038.14 +0129.77
    09/23 -0004.70 +0015.64 +0007.75 +0014.68 +0007.66 +0058.57
    09/24 -0044.44 -0014.83 -0027.00 -0034.03 -0073.55 -0097.76
    09/25 -0046.60 +0007.27 +0008.42 -0012.21 -0005.38 +0020.79
    09/26 -0036.07 +0012.19 +0024.23 +0016.40 +0018.92 +0129.23

    2013 Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
    Mon. 01/07: 45.09% 77.18% 52.53% 36.35% 52.72%
    Mon. 01/14: 27.99% 0.70% 48.48% 11.09% 11.21%
    Tue. 01/22: 00.26% 23.79% 12.89% 8.36%
    Mon. 01/28: 69.26% 42.03% 7.96% 0.00% 28.33%
    Mon. 02/04: 17.36% 28.73% 18.53% 12.68% 39.65%
    Mon. 02/11: 25.67% 5.99% 16.57% 17.04% 8.23%
    Tue. 02/19: 19.57% 19.88% 10.17% 30.54%
    Mon. 02/25: 2.88% 55.65% 28.57% 6.95% 0.28%
    Mon. 03/04: 100.79% 18.46% 11.55% 21.97% 3.61%
    Mon. 03/11: 25.81% 9.64% 1.35% 13.40% 0.00%
    Mon. 03/18: 7.10% 5.65% 9.26% 25.15% 9.02%
    Mon. 03/25: 1.47% 14.69% 4.15% 25.64%
    Mon. 04/01: 4.74% 11.82% 19.85% 3.42% 0.59%
    Mon. 04/08: 8.01% 9.51% 13.54% 0.00% 6.62%
    Mon. 04/15: 2.68% 8.94% 5.64% 1.67% 18.45%
    Mon. 04/22: 0.42% 4.90% 690.95% 39.86% 22.22%
    Mon. 04/29: 5.98% 14.04% 17.33% 13.58% 150.50%
    Mon. 05/06: 9.96% 9.15% 114.65% 53.10% 39.36%
    Mon. 05/13: 33.94% 54.27% 29.90% 61.57% 104.44%
    Mon. 05/20: 92.10% 132.60% 34.23% 55.97%
    Tue. 05/28: 76.82% 109.81% 28.64% 150.02%
    Mon. 06/03: 62.23% 62.24% 44.26% 98.99% 27.30%
    Mon. 06/10: 26.26% 40.92% 28.42% 82.06% 81.55%
    Mon. 06/17: 49.37% 57.96% 18.60% 26.64% 25.50%
    Mon. 06/24: 43.95% 23.12% 22.40% 46.88% 15.07%
    Mon. 07/01: 61.06% 35.37% 12.65% holiday 16.46%
    Mon. 07/08: 67.49% 14.84% 30.80% 11.23% 29.49%
    Mon. 07/15: 35.95% 61.87% 96.37% 16.17% 26.04%
    Mon. 07/22: 41.69% 48.41% 56.32% 48.74% 18.16%
    Mon. 07/29: 122.28% 52.08% 74.77% 74.49% 14.88%
    Mon. 08/05: 39.11% 15.18% 26.37% 48.80% 11.41%
    Mon. 08/12: 55.46% 42.24% 5.87% 43.65% 24.39%
    Mon. 08/19: 46.64% 27.52% 2.56% 13.12% 17.70%
    Mon. 08/26: 37.98% 7.04% 14.39% 23.85% 12.50%
    Tue. 09/03: 9.29% 34.87% 3.29% 6.14%
    Mon. 09/09: 16.71% 16.28% 26.78% 37.54% 20.75%
    Mon. 09/16: 13.75% 19.05% 6.49% 13.42% 0.00%
    Mon. 09/23: 13.81% 8.28% 30.17% 16.94%

    === 2012 ===
    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
    Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%

    ============ 2013 ===============
    Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 262.58%
    Feb Avg: 20.90%, min: 2.88%, max: 55.65%
    Mar Avg: 15.42%, min: 0.00%, max: 100.79%
    Apr Avg: 40.63%, min: 0.00%, max: 690.95%
    May Avg: 67.58%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%
    Jun Avg: 47.48%, min: 15.07%, max: 98.99%
    Jul Avg: 44.47%, min: 11.23%, max: 122.28%
    Aug Avg: 30.24%, min: 2.56%, max: 86.11%
    Sep Avg: 16.31%, min: 0.00%, max: 37.54%

    09/25/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 84, MinTrSz: 1000, MaxTrSz: 35000, Vol 535930, AvTrSz: 6380
    Min. Pr: 0.1200, Max Pr: 0.1250, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1211
    # Buys, Shares: 24 187500, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1217
    # Sells, Shares: 53 306630, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1208
    # Unkn, Shares: 7 41800, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1205
    Buy:Sell 1:1.64 (35% "buys"), DlyShts 92500 (17.26%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 30.17%

    Daily short sales continue the normal move back up (to a low level though) in the sideways vacillation pattern. Nothing to get excited about though - it takes a sustained trend of normal percentages of time for us to see normal price action appear.

    HA! The buy percentage right on my bottom target of 35%. Noting indicating it will hold here though - this is just the normal recovery from abysmal lows that accompanies weakening price as folks see reduced risk I think. It might hold somewhere around here a day or two but then should retreat again if I'm correctly reading the tea leaves the PIPErs leave behind.

    Price spread remained normal today at 4.17%, foolishly trying to continue a trend begun with yesterday's ~3.78%. Good luck with that!

    ARCA again showed up around 10:00 but nothing changed much as CANT, ATDF and BTIG picked up the drop-the-ask ball until ARCA appeared. You could tell they were not used to this - they actually bumped the ask higher once before 10:00.

    Anyway, sure enough, ARCA got the ball rolling (downhill, of course!) with a $0.121 offer, undercutting BTIG's pathetic $0.123 low-ball offer. By 10:56 the offer had dropped as low as $0.1209. From there we saw some buying come in and the offers managed to stay at or above $121 from 11:36 onward. Changes on the offers ended balanced about evenly on increases and decreases. That was good to see.

    The bids I noted were all upward but for one. I didn't check as frequently as I would've liked today though.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    09/23: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1295, x 85%: $0.1101
    09/24: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1288, x 85%: $0.1095
    09/25: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1282, x 85%: $0.1090

    Vol, in K, for above days: 496.32, 1,314.62, 535.93.

    The volatility I'd mentioned a few times over the last week or so shows up again today in my original inflection point calculations. They have gone from one-day changes for all periods with negative percentages yesterday to the three short-term periods being positive today. The three longer-term periods are still negative but indicating reducing weakening.

    The change over five days is the same. The rate of change over five days has gone mixed with some negative and some positive. However they all suggest improvement.

    My newer calculations' one-day changes are showing one-day changes for all periods with positive moves, as do all periods for the five-day change. I didn't expect this sort of behavior.

    The rate of change over the five days again has five of the six periods (all but the 5-day period) at positive readings and the 5-day is showing reducing weakness.

    With the volatility seen I wouldn't be looking for any change in price action though. We need to see some sustained trends that result in recognizable patterns on the charts suggestive of buying strength before we get our hopes up.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are omitted from the concentrator.

    Week ending values related to the PIPE 85% share pricing:
    06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 VWAP $0.2122
    06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 VWAP $0.1751
    06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 VWAP $0.1474
    07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 VWAP $0.1518
    07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 VWAP $0.1403
    07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 VWAP $0.1543
    07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 VWAP $0.1555
    08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 VWAP $0.1733
    08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 VWAP $0.1410
    08/16: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1447, x 85%: $0.1230 VWAP $0.1348
    08/23: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1423, x 85%: $0.1210 VWAP $0.1337
    08/30: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1378, x 85%: $0.1171 VWAP $0.1343
    09/06: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1351, x 85%: $0.1148 VWAP $0.1330
    09/13: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1327, x 85%: $0.1128 VWAP $0.1285
    09/20: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1301, x 85%: $0.1105 VWAP $0.1256

    Vol, in thousands, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731, 3889, 6920, 6,522, 2,285, 2,080 (short week), 4,178, 2,929.

    On my ORIGINAL inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
    ---- 1-day change ----
    09/16 +08.8% -00.3% +00.0% -01.4% -02.7% -02.3%
    09/17 +27.0% +07.6% -01.4% -02.4% -00.1% -00.1%
    09/18 +03.4% -09.2% -02.0% -01.0% -02.3% -02.1%
    09/19 -14.2% -04.8% +01.1% -02.4% +00.5% -02.3%
    09/20 -25.5% +06.8% +02.1% +00.8% -02.7% -01.3%
    09/23 -04.7% +02.3% +04.6% +00.4% -01.6% -01.0%
    09/24 -44.5% -09.8% -09.6% -07.6% -04.4% -03.2%
    09/25 +10.4% +08.1% +02.1% -01.1% -01.4% +00.6%
    ---- 5-day change ----
    09/16 +319.4% +035.8% +316.6% +026.5% -009.4% +006.4%
    09/17 +275.6% +130.0% +199.6% +015.8% +023.7% +035.7%
    09/18 +045.3% -173.1% -116.9% +026.6% -047.5% -002.7%
    09/19 -013.0% +044.0% +060.8% -031.0% +026.7% -015.9%
    09/20 -086.9% +157.6% +052.0% -003.5% -047.4% +003.6%
    09/23 -169.1% +242.4% +2764.0% +027.7% +013.5% +014.3%
    09/24 -1259.9% -466.4% -176.2% -116.5% -073.7% -046.6%
    09/25 +016.7% +128.1% +125.0% -001.4% +007.1% +026.4%
    ---- 5-day rate of change ----
    09/16 +058.0% +054.7% +013.7% +068.4% +024.9% +045.6%
    09/17 +056.2% +086.1% +000.8% +133.5% +056.5% +351.9%
    09/18 +068.0% -013.2% -047.4% +346.3% -089.8% +032.6%
    09/19 -014.4% +485.5% -028.8% +007.6% +1115.6% -014.0%
    09/20 -089.0% +055.5% -092.2% -036.1% -154.9% -025.2%
    09/23 -232.6% -023.7% +318.0% -024.6% +083.0% +011.2%
    09/24 -571.5% -195.6% -421.4% -218.9% -1984.0% -177.2%
    09/25 -007.6% +139.5% +120.1% -051.5% +046.3% +092.2%

    On my NEWER inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
    ---- 1-day change ----
    09/16 +008.70% -000.08% -000.02% -001.53% -003.34% -002.83%
    09/17 +027.86% +008.56% -000.16% -000.89% +002.12% +002.17%
    09/18 +002.03% -010.80% -003.92% -003.87% -005.90% -006.41%
    09/19 -010.73% -003.03% +003.18% +000.41% +004.73% +001.19%
    09/20 -021.27% +009.54% +005.00% +004.89% +001.82% +004.30%
    09/23 -007.52% -001.28% +000.64% -006.40% -009.34% -009.88%
    09/24 -045.51% -011.06% -011.62% -011.81% -009.66% -009.09%
    09/25 +013.38% +012.23% +007.08% +005.47% +006.02% +009.77%
    ---- 5-day change ----
    09/16 +228.14% +035.99% +141.48% +030.14% +011.00% +016.25%
    09/17 +347.32% +130.88% +639.79% +051.32% +074.16% +062.63%
    09/18 +048.14% -132.49% -083.72% +051.43% -120.59% +013.55%
    09/19 -013.59% +041.03% -081.70% -136.44% +007.89% -079.98%
    09/20 -077.68% +659.64% +1807.89% +087.03% +095.57% +087.70%
    09/23 -114.02% -020.63% +014.81% -619.30% -3248.35% -589.69%
    09/24 -3625.34% -438.30% -223.14% -205.99% -205.60% -147.17%
    09/25 +024.10% +154.74% +190.24% +060.25% +069.54% +088.25%
    ---- 5-day rate of change ----
    09/16 +061.19% +053.42% +013.40% +086.91% +062.46% +141.26%
    09/17 +058.22% +082.31% +000.56% +435.40% +031.01% +773.42%
    09/18 +068.20% +037.96% -046.67% +087.36% -062.99% +016.69%
    09/19 -015.67% +690.47% -049.83% -034.51% -025.96% -058.91%
    09/20 -082.35% +083.40% -001.77% +105.85% +362.16% +269.53%
    09/23 -157.28% -033.31% -042.13% -064.80% -079.91% -054.87%
    09/24 -845.53% -194.86% -448.51% -331.87% -1060.17% -266.92%
    09/25 -004.88% +149.01% +131.18% +064.12% +092.69% +121.27%

    Rolling 5-day ORIGINAL inflection point calculation aggregate change:
    ******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
    09/16 5 Day +0174.37 -0410.71 +0122.30 -0739.27 -0802.99 -1951.29
    09/17 5 Day +0654.85 +0123.23 +0366.37 -0622.14 -0612.35 -1254.16
    09/18 5 Day +0951.43 -0090.07 -0061.78 -0456.53 -0903.50 -1287.49
    09/19 5 Day +0828.14 -0050.45 -0024.21 -0597.88 -0662.02 -1491.96
    09/20 5 Day +0108.52 +0029.04 -0011.63 -0618.70 -0975.58 -1438.98
    09/23 5 Day -0074.94 +0099.43 +0309.72 -0447.54 -0843.94 -1233.39
    09/24 5 Day -1019.15 -0364.30 -0236.01 -0969.09 -1465.71 -1808.28
    09/25 5 Day -0849.04 +0102.40 +0059.04 -0982.23 -1361.43 -1330.75

    Average change/day, 5 days
    ____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
    09/16 +151.89 -142.10 +303.46 -075.18 +045.56 -060.09
    09/17 +237.30 -019.71 +306.01 +025.21 +071.32 +151.37
    09/18 +398.59 -022.31 +160.99 +112.53 +007.24 +200.74
    09/19 +341.34 +085.99 +114.71 +121.10 +088.01 +172.59
    09/20 +037.60 +133.75 +008.97 +077.40 -048.29 +129.16
    09/23 -049.86 +102.03 +037.48 +058.35 -008.19 +143.58
    09/24 -334.80 -097.51 -120.48 -069.39 -170.67 -110.82
    09/25 -360.09 +038.49 +024.16 -105.14 -091.59 -008.65

    Rolling 5-day NEWER inflection point calculation aggregate change:
    ******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
    09/16 5 Day +0019.93 -0061.91 +0010.12 -0153.38 -0173.29 -0577.99
    09/17 5 Day +0089.13 +0019.12 +0074.84 -0074.67 -0044.77 -0216.01
    09/18 5 Day +0132.04 -0006.21 +0012.19 -0036.27 -0098.76 -0186.74
    09/19 5 Day +0114.10 -0003.66 +0002.23 -0085.75 -0090.97 -0336.08
    09/20 5 Day +0025.47 +0020.50 +0042.55 -0011.12 -0004.03 -0041.35
    09/23 5 Day -0003.57 +0016.27 +0048.85 -0080.01 -0134.99 -0285.16
    09/24 5 Day -0133.04 -0055.04 -0060.15 -0244.81 -0412.53 -0704.82
    09/25 5 Day -0100.98 +0030.13 +0054.28 -0097.31 -0125.64 -0082.79

    Average change/day, 5 days
    ____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
    09/16 +0020.71 -0019.72 +0050.65 -0004.92 +0022.98 +0008.39
    09/17 +0032.76 -0003.49 +0050.94 +0016.50 +0030.11 +0073.24
    09/18 +0055.11 -0002.16 +0027.16 +0030.92 +0011.14 +0085.46
    09/19 +0046.47 +0012.78 +0013.63 +0020.25 +0008.25 +0035.12
    09/20 +0008.20 +0023.44 +0013.39 +0041.69 +0038.14 +0129.77
    09/23 -0004.70 +0015.64 +0007.75 +0014.68 +0007.66 +0058.57
    09/24 -0044.44 -0014.83 -0027.00 -0034.03 -0073.55 -0097.76
    09/25 -0046.60 +0007.27 +0008.42 -0012.21 -0005.38 +0020.79

    2013 Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
    Mon. 01/07: 45.09% 77.18% 52.53% 36.35% 52.72%
    Mon. 01/14: 27.99% 0.70% 48.48% 11.09% 11.21%
    Tue. 01/22: 00.26% 23.79% 12.89% 8.36%
    Mon. 01/28: 69.26% 42.03% 7.96% 0.00% 28.33%
    Mon. 02/04: 17.36% 28.73% 18.53% 12.68% 39.65%
    Mon. 02/11: 25.67% 5.99% 16.57% 17.04% 8.23%
    Tue. 02/19: 19.57% 19.88% 10.17% 30.54%
    Mon. 02/25: 2.88% 55.65% 28.57% 6.95% 0.28%
    Mon. 03/04: 100.79% 18.46% 11.55% 21.97% 3.61%
    Mon. 03/11: 25.81% 9.64% 1.35% 13.40% 0.00%
    Mon. 03/18: 7.10% 5.65% 9.26% 25.15% 9.02%
    Mon. 03/25: 1.47% 14.69% 4.15% 25.64%
    Mon. 04/01: 4.74% 11.82% 19.85% 3.42% 0.59%
    Mon. 04/08: 8.01% 9.51% 13.54% 0.00% 6.62%
    Mon. 04/15: 2.68% 8.94% 5.64% 1.67% 18.45%
    Mon. 04/22: 0.42% 4.90% 690.95% 39.86% 22.22%
    Mon. 04/29: 5.98% 14.04% 17.33% 13.58% 150.50%
    Mon. 05/06: 9.96% 9.15% 114.65% 53.10% 39.36%
    Mon. 05/13: 33.94% 54.27% 29.90% 61.57% 104.44%
    Mon. 05/20: 92.10% 132.60% 34.23% 55.97%
    Tue. 05/28: 76.82% 109.81% 28.64% 150.02%
    Mon. 06/03: 62.23% 62.24% 44.26% 98.99% 27.30%
    Mon. 06/10: 26.26% 40.92% 28.42% 82.06% 81.55%
    Mon. 06/17: 49.37% 57.96% 18.60% 26.64% 25.50%
    Mon. 06/24: 43.95% 23.12% 22.40% 46.88% 15.07%
    Mon. 07/01: 61.06% 35.37% 12.65% holiday 16.46%
    Mon. 07/08: 67.49% 14.84% 30.80% 11.23% 29.49%
    Mon. 07/15: 35.95% 61.87% 96.37% 16.17% 26.04%
    Mon. 07/22: 41.69% 48.41% 56.32% 48.74% 18.16%
    Mon. 07/29: 122.28% 52.08% 74.77% 74.49% 14.88%
    Mon. 08/05: 39.11% 15.18% 26.37% 48.80% 11.41%
    Mon. 08/12: 55.46% 42.24% 5.87% 43.65% 24.39%
    Mon. 08/19: 46.64% 27.52% 2.56% 13.12% 17.70%
    Mon. 08/26: 37.98% 7.04% 14.39% 23.85% 12.50%
    Tue. 09/03: 9.29% 34.87% 3.29% 6.14%
    Mon. 09/09: 16.71% 16.28% 26.78% 37.54% 20.75%
    Mon. 09/16: 13.75% 19.05% 6.49% 13.42% 0.00%
    Mon. 09/23: 13.81% 8.28% 30.17%

    === 2012 ===
    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
    Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%

    ============ 2013 ===============
    Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 262.58%
    Feb Avg: 20.90%, min: 2.88%, max: 55.65%
    Mar Avg: 15.42%, min: 0.00%, max: 100.79%
    Apr Avg: 40.63%, min: 0.00%, max: 690.95%
    May Avg: 67.58%, min: 9.15%, max: 150.50%
    Jun Avg: 47.48%, min: 15.07%, max: 98.99%
    Jul Avg: 44.47%, min: 11.23%, max: 122.28%
    Aug Avg: 30.24%, min: 2.56%, max: 86.11%
    Sep Avg: 16.27%, min: 0.00%, max: 37.54%

    1001 Vol 1307672, Sht 0075394 05.77% LHC 0.1200 0.1228 0.1200 b:s 1:8.330930 Vol 0585803, Sht 0097900 16.71% LHC 0.1200 0.1270 0.1220 b:s 1:2.24
    0927 Vol 0428346, Sht 0031800 07.42% LHC 0.1200 0.1260 0.1201 b:s 1:8.11
    0925 Vol 0535930, Sht 0092500 17.26% LHC 0.1200 0.1250 0.1211 b:s 1:1.640924 Vol 1314622, Sht 0084490 06.43% LHC 0.1190 0.1235 0.1200 b:s 1:3.46
    0923 Vol 0496318, Sht 0055000 11.08% LHC 0.1220 0.1294 0.1230 b:s 1:4.05
    0920 Vol 0363829, Sht 0000000 00.00% LHC 0.1227 0.1301 0.1229 b:s 1:8.43
    0919 Vol 0842050, Sht 0077500 09.20% LHC 0.1241 0.1270 0.1250 b:s 1:2.22
    0918 Vol 0695935, Sht 0033000 04.74% LHC 0.1250 0.1269 0.1255 b:s 1:2.71
    0917 Vol 0437262, Sht 0053514 12.24% LHC 0.1251 0.1290 0.1251 b:s 1:1.80
    0916 Vol 0590260, Sht 0057010 09.66% LHC 0.1251 0.1330 0.1251 b:s 1:2.36
    0913 Vol 0605493, Sht 0065375 10.80% LHC 0.1255 0.1318 0.1281 b:s 1:1.09
    0912 Vol 0711600, Sht 0169200 23.78% LHC 0.1251 0.1348 0.1251 b:s 1:1.73
    0911 Vol 1043283, Sht 0182950 17.54% LHC 0.1255 0.3128 0.1255 b:s 1:2.07
    0910 Vol 1250920, Sht 0139949 11.19% LHC 0.1290 0.1385 0.1291 b:s 1:2.20[87]
    0909 Vol 0537787, Sht 0076725 14.27% LHC 0.1305 0.1350 0.1310 b:s 1:4.70[86]
    0906 Vol 0726300, Sht 0037100 05.11% LHC 0.1300 0.1390 0.1305 b:s 1:4.96
    0905 Vol 0240810, Sht 0007000 02.91% LHC 0.1305 0.1348 0.1305 b:s 1:7.67
    0904 Vol 0260078, Sht 0060471 23.25% LHC 0.1300 0.1340 0.1310 b:s 1:2.05
    0903 Vol 0852891, Sht 0055000 06.45% LHC 0.1300 0.1370 0.1300 b:s 1:2.27
    0830 Vol 0669393, Sht 0055450 08.28% LHC 0.1300 0.1394 0.1311 b:s 1:2.08
    0829 Vol 0506358, Sht 0076599 15.13% LHC 0.1325 0.1390 0.1365 b:s 1:1.78
    0828 Vol 0134967, Sht 0011000 08.15% LHC 0.1287 0.1384 0.1350 b:s 1:1.31
    0827 Vol 0443365, Sht 0027366 06.17% LHC 0.1287 0.1351 0.1300 b:s 1:7.11
    0826 Vol 0520755, Sht 0127656 24.51% LHC 0.1287 0.1390 0.1320 b:s 1:1.73[85]
    0823 Vol 0281025, Sht 0035792 12.74% LHC 0.1300 0.1389 0.1369 b:s 1:2.57
    0822 Vol 2029326, Sht 0180939 08.92% LHC 0.1270 0.1490 0.1290 b:s 1:2.22
    0821 Vol 0928882, Sht 0018500 01.99% LHC 0.1410 0.1650 0.1420 b:s 1:3.49[84]
    0820 Vol 1775552, Sht 0280101 15.78% LHC 0.1411 0.1648 0.1560 b:s 1:1.36
    0819 Vol 1503311, Sht 0347971 23.15% LHC 0.1360 0.1525 0.1480 b:s 1:1.12[83]
    0816 Vol 2028694, Sht 0318700 15.71% LHC 0.1310 0.1400 0.1369 b:s 1:1.91
    0815 Vol 2802676, Sht 0705871 25.19% LHC 0.1250 0.1409 0.1320 b:s 1:1.37
    0814 Vol 0702343, Sht 0032525 04.63% LHC 0.1329 0.1450 0.1350 b:s 1:3.51[82]
    0813 Vol 0776232, Sht 0199158 25.66% LHC 0.1380 0.1523 0.1405 b:s 1:1.60[81]
    0812 Vol 0600319, Sht 0174292 29.03% LHC 0.1355 0.1490 0.1390 b:s 1:1.10
    0809 Vol 0468800, Sht 0040400 08.62% LHC 0.1391 0.1489 0.1450 b:s 1:3.08
    0808 Vol 0613185, Sht 0188020 30.66% LHC 0.1350 0.1415 0.1396 b:s 1:1.73
    0807 Vol 0689668, Sht 0121358 17.60% LHC 0.1400 0.1510 0.1410 b:s 1:2.01
    0806 Vol 1691806, Sht 0176804 10.45% LHC 0.1405 0.1680 0.1475 b:s 1:2.21
    0805 Vol 0425674, Sht 0105969 24.89% LHC 0.1650 0.1711 0.1670 b:s 1:1.89[80]
    0802 Vol 0263290, Sht 0033200 12.61% LHC 0.1700 0.1800 0.1711 b:s 1:5.55
    0801 Vol 0551180, Sht 0238330 43.24% LHC 0.1700 0.1800 0.1750 b:s 1:1.33[79]
    0731 Vol 0499580, Sht 0170750 34.18% LHC 0.1680 0.1748 0.1700 b:s 1.19:1
    0730 Vol 0480800, Sht 0144869 30.13% LHC 0.1651 0.1788 0.1666 b:s 1:1.37
    0729 Vol 0911825, Sht 0416775 45.71% LHC 0.1580 0.1950 0.1750 b:s 1.70:1[78]
    0726 Vol 0638003, Sht 0063020 09.88% LHC 0.1500 0.1600 0.1599 b:s 1:1.19
    0725 Vol 1131068, Sht 0247450 21.88% LHC 0.1550 0.1779 0.1602 b:s 1.21:1[77]
    0724 Vol 0477758, Sht 0103160 21.59% LHC 0.1750 0.1895 0.1771 b:s 1.58:1
    0723 Vol 2043546, Sht 0497243 24.33% LHC 0.1700 0.1950 0.1820 b:s 1:1.01[76]
    0722 Vol 0738566, Sht 0146751 19.87% LHC 0.1500 0.1700 0.1699 b:s 1.04:1
    0719 Vol 0533630, Sht 0095825 17.96% LHC 0.1515 0.1580 0.1521 b:s 1:2.22
    0718 Vol 0415591, Sht 0047883 11.52% LHC 0.1510 0.1590 0.1521 b:s 1:2.92
    0717 Vol 0793295, Sht 0334605 42.18% LHC 0.1500 0.1650 0.1530 b:s 1.23:1
    0716 Vol 0980658, Sht 0303752 30.97% LHC 0.1390 0.1750 0.1579 b:s 1:1.01
    0715 Vol 1532199, Sht 0265900 17.35% LHC 0.1251 0.1380 0.1333 b:s 1.04:1
    0712 Vol 0807313, Sht 0165375 20.48% LHC 0.1370 0.1476 0.1380 b:s 1:2.53
    0711 Vol 0592400, Sht 0054050 09.12% LHC 0.1400 0.1540 0.1451 b:s 1:4.34
    0710 Vol 0362587, Sht 0069013 19.03% LHC 0.1453 0.1685 0.1499 b:s 1:1.55[75]
    0709 Vol 0350131, Sht 0042265 12.07% LHC 0.1550 0.1648 0.1552 b:s 1:4.35
    0708 Vol 0783838, Sht 0215109 27.44% LHC 0.1512 0.1750 0.1550 b:s 1.33:1
    0705 Vol 0160989, Sht 0022069 13.92% LHC 0.1500 0.1559 0.1539 b:s 1:4.97[74]
    0703 Vol 0276423, Sht 0026025 09.41% LHC 0.1501 0.1674 0.1550 b:s 1:2.70
    0701 Vol 0324355, Sht 0073805 22.75% LHC 0.1510 0.1650 0.1600 b:s 1:1.80
    0701 Vol 0445474, Sht 0160033 35.92% LHC 0.1500 0.1675 0.1601 b:s 1:1.49

    [74] One AH trade of 2.5K is not included in FINRA data. Adding it to total volume moves the volume from the reported 158,489 shares to 160,989 and the short percentage from 13.92% to 13.71%. If they are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves to 24,569 and the short percentage to 15.26%.
    [75] One AH trade of 6K is not included in FINRA data. Adding it to total volume moves the volume from the reported 362,587 shares to 368,587 and the short percentage from 19.03% to 18.72%. If they are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves to 75,513 and the short percentage to 20.35%.
    [76] There was a 2K AH trade. With today's volumes the impact would be too small to worry about, so I will not detail the various potential changes here.
    [78] There were 2 5K pre-market trades at $0.18 & $0.1899. The FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include the pre-market trades. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 911,825 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 45.71% to 45.21%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 416,775 to 426,775 and the short percentage would be 46.30%.
    [79] There was a 14.9K AH trade at $0.1750. FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include out-of-hours trades. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 551,180 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 43.24% to 42.10%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 238,330 to 253,230 and the short percentage would be 44.73%.
    [80] There was a 5K AH trade FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 420,674 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 25.19% to my 24.89%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 105,969 to 110,969 and the short percentage would be 26.07%.
    [81] There was a 3K AH trade FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 773,232 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 25.76% to my 25.66%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 199,158 to 202,158 and the short percentage would be 26.04%.
    [82] There was a 10K AH trade FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 702,343 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 5.97% to my 04.57%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 35,525 to 42,525 and the short percentage would be 05.97%.
    [83] There was a 4K AH trade FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,503,311 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 23.15% to my 23.09%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 347,971 to 351,971 and the short percentage would be 23.35%.
    [84] There was a 5K pre-market trade FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 923,882 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 2% to my 1.99%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 18,500 to 23,500 and the short percentage would be 2.53%.
    [85] There was a 10K pre-market trade FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 520,755 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 24.51% to my 24.05%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 127,656 to 137,656 and the short percentage would be 25.94%.
    [86] There were two AH trades totaling 19K FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 537,787 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 14.72% to my 13.78%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 76,725 to 95,725 and the short percentage would be 17.19%.
    [87] There was one AH trade of 19K that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,250,920 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 11.19% to my 11.10%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 139,949 to 150,047 and the short percentage would be 11.90%.

    09/24/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 111, MinTrSz: 585, MaxTrSz: 80000, Vol 1314622, AvTrSz: 11843
    Min. Pr: 0.1190, Max Pr: 0.1235, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1203
    # Buys, Shares: 38 294778, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1205
    # Sells, Shares: 73 1019844, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1202
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:3.46 (22.4% "buys"), DlyShts 84490 (6.43%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 8.28%

    Made another new all-time VWAP low since I began tracking in February of '12.

    Daily short sales are still way too low. But they have started the normal move back up (to a low level though) in the sideways vacillation pattern.

    The buy percentage continues recovering some. It's sticking with what I said yesterday, "With this move from yesterdays very low percentage we should see a move over a few days back above 30% if the pattern we've seen holds ...".

    Price spread has narrowed to something akin to a more "normal" range at ~3.78%.

    ARCA showed up around 10:00, pretty much guaranteeing we'd have trouble holding any price level similar to yesterday's. Sure enough, got a VWAP drop of almost 2.2%. Contestant on the offers also included ATDF, NITE and BTIG. The offers dropped most early, hitting $0.1199 by 11:21 and hitting its nadir of $0.1194 at 12:10. This ended a long string of steps down. From there we made only a couple moves higher, getting back to $0.1202 at 15:11.

    The buyers took advantage and stepped the bids down, finally getting as low as $0.1192 at 13:13. It was able to recover only to $0.1200 at 15:11.

    The buy percentage trend which I suggested yesterday "... will likely be making a move back to the mid-to-low 30% range now. This has been the pattern of late ...". Today it made another small improvement from yesterday's 19.8% "buys". This has been part of the past pattern as price drops while buy:sell gets nasty, as it had done. If history does repeat we should get back to 30%+ sometime in a few days.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    09/23: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1295, x 85%: $0.1101
    09/24: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1288, x 85%: $0.1095

    Vol, in K, for above days: 496.32, 1,314.62.

    My original inflection point calculations now have all one-day change periods with negative percentages. Recall yesterday it was only the 5-day period having three consecutive below-zero readings with mixed small changes in the other periods.

    The change over five days is the same: all periods have negative numbers now. Yesterday I said "I think we'll see those positive [percentages] begin to disappear in just another few days at most". They did disappear in a very strong manner. The rate of change over five days also now has all periods showing strong negative rates of change.

    My newer calculations' one-day changes are in full agreement with the original, although they display less radical incremental changes, as designed to do. The five-day change also has all periods now negative. The three short-term ones have the strongest negative changes and the longer-term ones show reducing weakening. I think this latter group will fall in line unless we see some change in daily behavior very quickly, which I do not expect.

    The rate of change over the five days again has all six periods at negative readings and all are showing increasing weakness as I thought would occur when I mentioned yesterday "We should expect them to become more pronounced from here".

    As I've been saying, all this now suggestions coming price movement will certainly continue downward. I've been saying for a while we'd see price less than $0.12.

    Today we got it.

    The 85% prices are now below $0.11 and I expect continued downward movement.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    09/23/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 64, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 496318, AvTrSz: 7755
    Min. Pr: 0.1220, Max Pr: 0.1294, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1229
    # Buys, Shares: 11 98184, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1231
    # Sells, Shares: 53 398134, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1229
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:4.05 (19.8% "buys"), DlyShts 55000 (11.08%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 13.81%

    Since the 85% prices are now barely above $0.11, I think we can expect the next true-up and new payment to be followed by less than $0.12 as a normal price for a month or so unless big news appears. I don't expect this in the next two or three weeks. When prices below $0.12 will become normal is something I won't guess. News and/or unexpected support from folks that see $0.12xx range as a very low-risk proposition might occur.

    It's good to see some daily short sales return. Still way too low though, being still below all moving averages, which are also at abnormally low levels.

    The buy percentage recovered some. With this move from yesterdays very low percentage we should see a move over a few days back above 30% if the pattern we've seen holds. Remember that I believe we are in a sideways move at a very low level with vacillation. At some point (in the far future when the PIPErs have been paid off?) this will change and we will again move to the trends seen mid-May through mid-June (see the chart).

    Price spread is still wide at ~6.1%.

    ARCA took the day off and this allowed our VWAP to suffer only a minimal ~2.1% price decline as BTIG, NITE and CDEL had the onus of contesting on the offers in the early part of the day. ETRF joined in shortly after 11:00 and TEJS came late around 15:00. ETRF is the culprit causing the offers to drop out of the $0.123x range into the $0.122x range. Note that it was at this time that the bids began a retreat to take advantage of softness in the offers.

    I again think only the low volume, which is below all my averages, saved us from sinking further than we did.

    The normal "late-day weakness" started a bit early with the advent of ETRF on best offer around 11:00.

    The buyers did little jostling today, just mostly holding positions after adjusting in response to lowering offers.

    The buy percentage trend I (finally!) called as broken yesterday will likely be making a move back to the mid-to-low 30% range now. This has been the pattern of late. Of course, history may not repeat.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    09/23: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1295, x 85%: $0.1101

    Vol, in K, for above days: 496.32.

    My original inflection point calculations now have one-day changes with the 5-day period having three consecutive below-zero readings. Four of the six periods have weakening readings now. As with the last few days, all changes are very small.

    The change over five days is similar but different. The five-day period negative three times now while the others are more positive in their movements. Some of these positive moves are relatively large too. I think we'll see those positive begin to disappear in just another few days at most. The rate of change over five days has the two shortest periods showing increasing negative moves and the remaining four periods showing positive movement. The strength of these positive moves is mixed.

    My newer calculations' one-day changes, which were not nearly so negative as the original's yesterday, has done an about-face. I had mentioned it was designed to be less "flaky" and maybe this one-day lag is a "good thing". We'll see. Anyway, the five-day change also has three consecutive below-zero readings but the other five periods are also dipping and four are now negative. All small changes and readings for now, but we should expect them to accelerate from here.

    The rate of change over the five days now has all six periods at negative readings. The changes are mixed with small and "medium" changes. We should expect them to become more pronounced from here.

    All this no suggestions coming price movement will certainly continue downward. I've been saying for a while we'd see price less than $0.12. I think we are quite near to that event.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.

    09/20/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 54, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol: 363829, AvTrSz: 6738
    Min. Pr: 0.1227, Max Pr: 0.1301, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1256
    # Buys, Shares: 10 38600, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1243
    # Sells, Shares: 44 325229, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1258
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:8.43 (10.6% "buys"), DlyShts 0 (0%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 0.00%

    One of the big deals, to me, today is the 0% short sales. Yes, with our volume pretty low it may not seem that significant but it says that ~364 shares that fed into the market were from hands that had long-positions. So it was likely some combination of:
    - market-makers, who have likely been taking advantage of late-day weakness and making covering buys, were long due to shares backing prior customer sell orders flowing in;
    - intra-broker trades by the brokers' wholly-owned market-making desk;
    - well-financed MMs took a load of shares from the "financiers" at a good price (I think this would be least likely most of the time).

    As I've mentioned many times, we are unlikely to see any price appreciation while daily short sales are very low.

    The next big deal, to me, is the low buy percentage. Yesterday I said "... I think this doesn't bode well going forward". Well, today makes a NEW 8th-lowest ever seen since I began tracking in February of 2012. The mixed readings we'd been seeing recently on both the original and newer inflection-point calculations caused me to say yesterday that I thought the roll-over had begun as we "flattened" with mixed changes of small magnitude.

    The 10 and 25-day averages have now again fallen below the "normal" range for them.

    I guess a 6% price spread is the best we might have expected today.

    Since ARCA and NITE were very active in the first ~50 minutes, driving the offers from 09:32's $0.1316 to 11:28's $0.124, we could have easily ended much worse. The offers never really recovered - the highest I subsequently noted was $0.1245.

    I think only the low volume saved us from sinking further than we did.

    Yesterday I noted "... the sellers seemed to have lost their elan for dumping". They got it back today I guess - more than twice as many trades on roughly 2/3rds the volume with ~90% hitting the bids and a 6% price spread.

    We had already dropped to the low $0.124x range by 09:48. The normal "late-day weakness" wouldn't be denied either - in fact it came early instead. We dropped further to $0.1227 by 11:28 and finally found stability a couple hundredths of a penny above that for the rest of the day.

    The buyers were a little quieter today - no need to jostle, especially if you are a market-maker and you can sit on your bid knowing that covering buys will be made as ~90% of the trades hit the bids.

    The buy percentage trend, which I've resisted determining is broken, is definitely broken now. It seems it will not be making a move back to a sustained normal range anytime soon. This fits with yesterday's "However, with the percentage not making a really noticeable attempt to get back near that 35% range, I fear for it going forward".

    I had said for at least a couple days now that daily short sales are trying to go the way of the do-do: extinct! Today doesn't break that trend. Yes, it will come back some, short-term, but it's going to be awhile before we see "normal" again.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    09/16: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1315, x 85%: $0.1117
    09/17: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1314, x 85%: $0.1117
    09/18: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1310, x 85%: $0.1113
    09/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1305, x 85%: $0.1109
    09/20: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1301, x 85%: $0.1105

    Vol, in K, for above days: 590.26, 437.26, 695.94, 842.05, 363.83.

    My original inflection point calculations rolled over as expected, with the five-day period's one-day change going below zero and decreasing further two consecutive days. Most of the other periods have yet to respond in a big way, naturally, but are certainly not showing strong signs of improvement. "Mixed" again.

    The change over five days is showing a similar pattern - the five-day period negative twice now and the others "mixed" in their movements. The rate of change over five days is telling the story - four of the six metrics have made relatively large negative moves and five periods are now carrying numbers below zero.

    No mixed signals here.

    My newer calculations' one-day changes are not nearly so negative as the original. Yes, the five-day period also has two consecutive below-zero readings but the other periods have four of the five struggling very slightly upwards. It's much less "mixed" in it's pattern. This may be a result of what I tried to embed in this version - less "flakiness". It makes sense that the longer periods, generally, should show trend changes a bit slower than the shorter periods. We'll have to see.

    The change over five days supports what is seen in the one-day changes. The rate of change over the five days is "rationally" mixed - the three shorter periods showing reducing strength and increasing weakness while the three longer periods display have yet to respond to recent actions and still show increasing strength.

    All this still leaves me with no strong suggestion of coming price ... "movement". I've been ending that with "improvement" but today seems to warrant a change to no suggestion of movement ... yet!

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.

    09/19/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 99, MinTrSz: 135, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol 842050, AvTrSz: 8506
    Min. Pr: 0.1241, Max Pr: 0.1270, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1253
    # Buys, Shares: 28 259723, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1259
    # Sells, Shares: 70 577327, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1251
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1250
    Buy:Sell 1:2.22 (30.8% "buys"), DlyShts 77500 (9.20%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 13.42%

    Through 13:00, the sellers seemed to have lost their elan for dumping. There were only 22 trades and price ranged $0.1250 to $0.1270 on only 54.6K shares traded at a VWAP of $0.1261. This was above yesterday's closing VWAP of $0.1252. Moreover, the trades that were buys and sells were fairly even resulting in a buy of 59%.

    At 13:01 we had a "buy" of 100K go at $0.1260. This was apparently in satisfaction of a 100K+ share bid at $0.126 by someone at ATDF which appeared around 11:49. Through the next 76 trades of ~6875K shares, where "buys" were only 18.55% and comprised of only 127.5K shares, the price managed to remain somewhat reasonable, finishing that period at a VWAP of $0.1252. With ~81.4% (we had 5K "unknown") of the trades hitting the bids, this would've surprised me if I hadn't been watching bid/ask changes during the day.

    The "late-day weakness", usually sparked by frequent contested offer reductions, wasn't as pronounced as usual, either in number of ask reductions or their magnitude. I think this was because only ARCA and BTIG were really active early on. ATDF was unusually quiescent and PERT made a late appearance, but not until 15:24 or so, when most of the trading had already been done. There were only four or five trades after PERT gained the top of the heap when the other two exited stage right.

    In contrast, the buyers did a fair amount of jostling, never letting the bid get below $0.1250 in my fairly frequent peeks at that. I think this allowed the determined sellers to show some restraint while still believing they could make their goal, whatever it may be.

    After yesterday's weakening to 26.9% "buys" from Tuesday's 35.7% it was good to see us hold in the 30% range. However, if we remove the 100K trade from today's trading we end up with 21.5% of the remaining trades being "buys".

    I think this doesn't bode well going forward.

    Volume was decent, landing pretty much in the middle of the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages, in thousands, of 747, 898, 837 and 655 respectively.

    I've mentioned the last few days I can't say the buy percentage trend is broken here. However, with the percentage not making a really noticeable attempt to get back near that 35% range, I fear for it going forward.

    I mentioned yesterday that daily short sales are trying to go the way of the do-do: extinct! It's still doing what I've been mentioning is likely - trending lower or staying very low. I don't believe we can see any price appreciation while this trend continues.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    09/16: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1315, x 85%: $0.1117
    09/17: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1314, x 85%: $0.1117
    09/18: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1310, x 85%: $0.1113
    09/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1305, x 85%: $0.1109

    Vol, in K, for above days: 590.26, 437.26, 695.94, 842.05.

    My original inflection point calculations, which I mentioned had started to roll over, is in the process of doing that now I think. The one-day changes are still mixed, but with minimal changes in either direction. I think this general tendency toward "flattening" is the set-up for the start of a trend. We'll have to wait a bit to confirm occurrence and direction though.

    The change over five days is showing a similar behavior. The rate of change over five days, but for one outlier, is similar.

    On my newer calculations, the one-day changes are in full agreement with the original's results and also display minimal movement. However, the change over five days has four of the six periods now showing increasing weakening, not just mostly reducing strengthening with some showing weakening as they did yesterday. The rate of change over the five days is quite mixed and, in aggregate, offers little guidance.

    I'd summarize all this as no suggestion of coming price improvement.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.

    09/18/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 80, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 32000, Vol 695935, AvTrSz: 8699
    Min. Pr: 0.1250, Max Pr: 0.1269, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1252
    # Buys, Shares: 24 187335, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1255
    # Sells, Shares: 56 508600, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1252
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.71 (26.9% "buys"), DlyShts 33000 (4.74%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 6.49%

    Sellers on only two market-makers began jostling early today and they kept control for most of the day: ARCA and BTIG. This may explain a narrow price spread today - only 1.52%, which is way below the 5%+ ranges we've been seeing. On a Friday or Monday this might not be unusual, but on a Wednesday? Anyway, in the peeks I took I only saw TEJS at the top very early on and didn't see ATDF until near EOD. The other usual suspects never happened to be on top when I looked - only seven times on the ask though.

    The buyers seemed to respond accordingly, mostly holding steady on the bids between $0.125 and $0.1253 all day.

    Yesterday's 35.7% buys couldn't hold up today, but we didn't fall on the floor. I guess today's percentage is just a step on the way back down, as we've seen so many times. <*sigh*>

    Volume began to come back as the VWAP dropped a wee bit. This has been common behavior in the past and the low $0.12xx range has shown itself to be a floor in the past. I suspect this is why volume is up. The narrow price spread may have added to the assessment that a bottom was in again.

    As mentioned the last couple days, I can't say the buy percentage trend is broken here. It's a bit lower than I'd like, but not down in the dumps. However, enough days have passed that we can observe a vacillation within a descending trend now. I'm beginning to get that queasy feeling about this.

    Daily short sales are trying to go the way of the do-do: extinct! Of course it won't, but it's doing what I've been mentioning is likely. This is bad ju-ju as I don't believe we can see any price appreciation while this trend continues.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    09/16: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1315, x 85%: $0.1117
    09/17: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1314, x 85%: $0.1117
    09/18: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1310, x 85%: $0.1113

    Vol, in K, for above days: 590.26, 437.26, 695.94.

    My original inflection point calculations, which had a mix of improvement and degradation evenly split, has started to roll over: now five of six periods show increasing weakening. Unlike the last few days, I think we can assess a high likelihood of some price weakening coming again.

    The change over five days is showing a similar is in agreement. The rate of change over five days has only two periods showing some strengthening and the rest are weakening. This matches yesterday's "I suspect we see those weaken tomorrow".

    On my newer calculations, the one-day changes are in full agreement with the original's results - all periods weakening or showing reducing strength (the 5-day period). It looks like yesterday's "If we can get a string of one-day improvements ..." will not happen. The change over five days has five of the six periods showing reducing strengthening or are showing weakening. The rate of change over the five days is in agreement and yesterday's "I think some may go negative tomorrow" is coming true: two went negative.

    Today I change my outlook and I'd summarize all this again as suggesting coming additional price weakening.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    09/17/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 89, MinTrSz: 400, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol 437262, AvTrSz: 4913
    Min. Pr: 0.1251, Max Pr: 0.1290, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1270
    # Buys, Shares: 24 156314, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1277
    # Sells, Shares: 65 280948, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1265
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.80 (35.7% "buys"), DlyShts 53514 (12.24%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 19.05%

    The sellers couldn't wait to get started today and everybody wanted a starring role this time. Two minute after the open ETRF jumped in fron on the ask with $0.129x5K offer, getting ahead of BTIG's $013 offer. Then others slowly threw their hat in the ring: TEJS with a $0.1285 at 10:58 and ATDF with a $0.1279 at 11:42. From then until around 15:45, they putzed around between $0.1274 and $0.1285, while heading mostly lower, as CDEL, TEJS, ATDF and ARCA (who overslept and missed Act I and joined in at 13:38) fought for the lead. Sometime after 14:30 the winner was CDEL with a $0.1265x12.4K offer going into the close.

    The buyers, being the penny-pinchers they are, just hung around all day in the low $0.126x range (except for NITE who apparently imbibed too much and put in a bid at $0.128 around 11:21 and it was immediately filled as 6 trades "hit the bid", leaving him free to go buy another bottle of the "good stuff").

    In spite of that, there were some folks that saw good value in the offers and we managed a decent buy percentage today. That 35.7% is right around the bottom of what I'd like to see us hold most of the time.

    As has been going on a few days, volume continues to drop and is even further below the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day values, in thousands, of 643, 897, 821 and 654. As with yesterday, I'm still waiting to see if we start to settle out somewhere around here. No sign of it yet.

    Yesterday I said "The buy percentage trend isn't really broken yet even with ...". Today supports that thought, but it's not a really strong reading and I don't know how much longer it can hold a generally better reading before falling into the gutter again (sharing a bottle with those folks at NITE?).

    Daily short sales continue acting as predicted, vacillating around a very low percentage reading. The longer this goes, the worse the outlook for next price move becomes I think.

    Hey! What happened to our price volatility? Down to a 3.1% spread! Can this mean something? My humble assessment is no. I think it's just a side-effect of the higher buy percentage - the sellers didn't have to hammer the bids as hard to dump what they wanted to dump. Normal behavior will return - trust me on that.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    09/16: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1315, x 85%: $0.1117
    09/17: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1314, x 85%: $0.1117

    Vol, in K, for above days: 590.26, 437.26.

    My original inflection point calculations have a mix of improvement and degradation evenly split. Generally not enough agreement to suggest anything one way or the other.

    The change over five days is showing a similar configuration, the only real difference these five-day changes still have all positive numbers. However the rate of change over five days has only two of the periods showing reducing strengthening. I suspect we see those weaken tomorrow.

    On my newer calculations, the one-day changes are all improved and four of the six periods have positive numbers, suggesting some strengthening. The change over five days has all periods improving a second consecutive day and all are again positive numbers. If we can get a string of one-day improvements matched with such as this we'd have some hope here. Ah, but the rate of change over the five days is mixed three and three and I think some may go negative tomorrow.

    I'd summarize all this again as no suggestion of an identifiable trend change yet.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.

    09/16/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 95 MinTrSz: 385 MaxTrSz: 35600 Vol 590260 AvTrSz: 6213
    Min. Pr: 0.1251 Max Pr: 0.1330 VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1274
    # Buys, Shares: 32 175660, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1293
    # Sells, Shares: 63 414600, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1266
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.36 (29.8% "buys") DlyShts 57010 (09.66%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 13.75%

    ATDF basically planted a $0.128 bid at the open and left it there until 11:25 when it moved down to $0.1261. During that interval, ATDF stayed at the top of the ask too until 11:10 when BTIG usurped ATDF's position. Movement on the ask was seldom and limited, having a range of $0.1297 through $0.13, the ending when BTIG took the lead. Not much exceptional from then on: a brief bump up on the ask followed by weakness coming in around 13:30.

    As is typical, the bids responded by generally moving lower. With the typical "hit the bids" action, that helped pull price and buy percentage down.

    Volume continues to drop and is again below the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day. I'm still waiting to see if we start to settle out somewhere around here. No sign of it yet. We have seen that as price goes ever-lower more folks must be thinking the down-side risk approaches zero and decide to buy.

    The buy percentage trend isn't really broken yet even with today's lower reading: 32.6%, 11.5%, 16.8%, 17.5%, 31.0%, 31.6%, 36.7%, 48.0% and 29.8% today. Yesterday I said "I really like that last number, but it's not going to be here long I think". Since that 48% was well above the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages of 29%, 32%, 36% and 39% respectively, it makes since to have it fall back if there's nothing changed in the environment. As long as we don't get more of those "xxth lowest" numbers I don't read much into a small drop in this metric. Nor do I see much in a move the other way until something changes in the environment and an improved reading sustains for a while.

    As mentioned yesterday, it makes no difference because we are PUBARed!

    Daily short sales continue acting as predicted: today they continued heading for the basement, percentage-wise, with consecutive readings now of 10.80% and 9.66%.

    Price volatility returned a little bit: up to 6.3% from yesterday's down to 5.02% spread. With a lower low and higher high, some might think this portends a change in behavior or trend is nigh. That would be a mistaken assessment IMO.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    09/16: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1315, x 85%: $0.1117

    Vol, in K, for above days: 590.26.

    My original inflection point calculations have all one-day changes showing reducing strengthening or even weakening. They are no longer all positive percentages. The percentages are not large moves, so we'll have to wait to assess any meaning. Knowing how it has been going though, I bet we can all guess what's coming regarding the trend though - more of the same price deterioration.

    The change over five days is not yet showing a similar trend, with the four short-term metrics still showing strengthening and only the two long-term periods showing reducing strengthening and weakening. However the rate of change over five days has four of the periods showing reducing strengthening.

    I caution again about the volatility in these metrics in the recent past and I want to see some consistency before I give them much weight, especially in short-term changes.

    On my newer calculations, the one-day changes are more pessimistic than the originals, with 5 of the six periods showing weakening and the 5-day showing reducing strengthening. This seems a rational follow-on to yesterday when the one-day changes had only he 5 and 10-day periods showing positive movement, and it was small movement at that. In contrast, the change over five days has all periods improving and all are positive numbers. Whereas yesterday I thought they were just showing abatement of rate of weakening, these suggest strengthening if the positive numbers can hold for a while. The rate of change over the five days is again all positive numbers, but are now mixed in their changes: three improved and three deteriorated. As I said yesterday, I harbor concerns about volatility for all these metrics too for now.

    I'd summarize all this as no suggestion of an identifiable trend change yet.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.

    09/13/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 107 MinTrSz: 280 MaxTrSz: 19400 Vol 605493 AvTrSz: 5659
    Min. Pr: 0.1255 Max Pr: 0.1318 VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1285
    # Buys, Shares: 46 290395 VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1289
    # Sells, Shares: 61 315098 VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1280
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0 VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.09 (48% "buys") DlyShts 65375 (10.8%) Dly Sht % of 'sells' 20.75%

    Volume continues to drop and is now below the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages of, in thousands, 693, 898, 819 and 648. I'm thinking we ought to start to settle out somewhere around here, but can't be sure. We have seen that as price goes ever-lower more folks must be thinking the down-side risk approaches zero and decide to buy.

    Maybe that explains the buy percentage trend: 32.6%, 11.5%, 16.8%, 17.5%, 31.0%, 31.6%, 36.7% and 48.0% today. I really like that last number, but it's not going to be here long I think.

    Daily short sales acting as predicted: today started heading for the basement again, percentage-wise. This portends no good for share price for now.

    Hallelujah! Price volatility is waning: down today to a 5.02% spread. With a higher low and lower high, could it mean something? Yes! It means we are all subject to wishful thinking - nothing more than that ATM.

    Buy percentage made the fourth straight day above 30%. As mentioned yesterday, it makes no difference because we are PUBARed! It will be dropping again very soon, I think, when folks realize than my expectation of < $0.12 seems much more likely than may have been thought.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    09/09: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1347, x 85%: $0.1145
    09/10: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1346, x 85%: $0.1144
    09/11: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1338, x 85%: $0.1138
    09/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1333, x 85%: $0.1133
    09/13: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1327, x 85%: $0.1128

    Vol, in K, for above days: 556.79, 1,261, 1,043, 711.6, 605.49.

    My original inflection point calculations have the four shortest period one-day changes showing unexpected strengthening. They are all positive percentages. The percentages are not large moves, but it sure is better than what we've been seeing. Let's hope it continues.

    The change over five days is showing a similar trend, as is the rate of change over five days.

    Let's do keep in mind that I've expressed concern about the volatility in these metrics in the past and I want to see some consistency before I even think of taking the bait.

    On my newer calculations, the one-day changes again diverge, but more than slightly this time, from the original's behavior. The one-day changes have only he 5 and 10-day periods showing positive movement, and it's small movement at that. The change over five days has five periods improving, a couple periods quite noticeably. But most are still negative numbers and so I think just show abatement of weakening rate. The rate of change over the five days is all positive numbers, a good thing for sure, and may turn into a TREND. But I harbor the same concerns about volatility for all these as I do for the results being shown by the original version of the calculations.

    All told, much better readings and if they begin to sustain with some consistency ... Well, if pigs had wings ...

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    09/12/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 75 MinTrSz: 1000 MaxTrSz: 100000 Vol 711600 AvTrSz: 9488
    Min. Pr: 0.1251 Max Pr: 0.1348 VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1294
    # Buys, Shares: 21 260900 VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1305
    # Sells, Shares: 54 450700 VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1288
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0 VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.73 (36.7% "buys") DlyShts 169200 (23.78%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 37.54% Volume has begun to drop again into somewhat normal range. It's now above the 10 and 100-day averages, 625K and 638K respectively, but remains below the 25 and 50-day averages of 898K and 805K.

    Daily short sales are higher numerically but in percentage only getting to the lower end of what I believe will be normal someday again. However it is above the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages of 12.73%, 14.71%, 18.26% and 21.86%. As I mentioned sometime back, this vacillation around a low level for a long time (I believe I called it a sideways movement) was expected and I also said we wouldn't see much price improvement until it ends and percentages move into consistently more normal ranges. Nothing has changed my mind yet.

    Price volatility is again higher: today's is a 7.75% spread.

    Buy percentage made the third straight day above 30%. But don't go singing choruses of "Hallelujah" yet - this is normal when folks think it's making lows again (likely based on the bounces from the mid-$0.12 levels before). But "This Time It's Different". We're PUBARed!

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    09/09: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1347, x 85%: $0.1145
    09/10: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1346, x 85%: $0.1144
    09/11: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1338, x 85%: $0.1138
    09/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1333, x 85%: $0.1133

    Vol, in K, for above days: 556.79, 1,261, 1,043, 711.6.

    My original inflection point calculations have the one-day changes starting to break down now with increased inconsistency in the various periods. I think the trend is slightly increasing more negative with the longer periods mixed in their behavior. There's still noting making any strong suggestion of bullish action. The change over five days is also mixed but only the 5 and 10-day periods show a large reversal to the negative. Three of the remaining four longer periods have yet to react to the recent behavior. That will come shortly I think.

    On my newer calculations, the one-day changes diverge slightly from the original's behavior. The one-day changes four periods, including the 5-day calculation, very slightly improving. The two that weakened, 10 and 25-day periods, were noticeably weaker though. I would interpret this as no ability to read a trend change yet. The percentage change over five days is more negative in all but the 5-day period. The other periods seem to be generally accelerating the rate of weakening. This should appear in the rate of change over five days shortly. For now that rate of change is trending more positive.

    All told, near-term data indicates further weakening and the longer-term periods indicate reducing weakening, but not yet, in aggregate, suggesting any strengthening.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    09/11/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 119 MinTrSz: 100 MaxTrSz: 100000 Vol 1043283 AvTrSz: 8767
    Min. Pr: 0.1255 Max Pr: 0.1349 VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1285
    # Buys, Shares: 37 330000 VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1300
    # Sells, Shares: 76 683283 VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1278
    # Unkn, Shares: 6 30000 VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1287
    Buy:Sell 1:2.07 (31.6% "buys") DlyShts 182950 (17.54%) Dly Sht % of 'sells' 26.78%

    Volume was high again, remaining above 1MM shares traded. The combination of high volume, falling prices, continued very low short sales percentages and buy:sell still being low (although improving these last two days) confirms, to me, that the "financiers", a.k.a "PIPErs", are dumping fast with no intent of restraint or price support at this time.

    The price volatility keeps getting higher: today's is a 7.49% spread. A couple days back I had hopes, but not faith, that this might lead to a reversal in price action. I stated then that I didn't think it was likely though. Today seems to confirm that assessment as we have a strong trend, presented again today, of lower highs and lows combined with descending VWAPs.

    As I said yesterday, "I expect this to continue for quite some time".

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    09/09: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1347, x 85%: $0.1145
    09/10: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1346, x 85%: $0.1144
    09/11: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1338, x 85%: $0.1138

    Vol, in K, for above days: 556.79, 1,261, 1,043.

    As with yesterday, my original inflection point calculations continue to suggest weakening. But the one-day change percentages have switched to going more negative from essentially flat in yesterday's changes while the longer periods are mixed in their behavior. There's still noting making any strong suggestion of bullish action.

    On my newer calculations, the one-day changes mimic the original behavior with the one-day changes being weaker (but even more so). The percentage change over five days is positive in the four longest periods while the 5 and 10-day periods both show increasing weakness. The rate of change over five days is in the same state.

    All told, near-term data indicates further weakening and the longer-term periods indicate reducing weakening, but not yet, in aggregate, suggesting any strengthening.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    09/10/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 153 MinTrSz: 100 MaxTrSz: 60000 Vol 1261018 AvTrSz: 8242
    Min. Pr: 0.1290 Max Pr: 0.1385 VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1303
    # Buys, Shares: 55 391302 VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1308
    # Sells, Shares: 96 859716 VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1301
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 10000 VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1298
    Buy:Sell 1:2.20 (31.0% "buys"), DlyShts 139949 (11.10%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 16.28%

    There was one AH trade of 19K that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,250,920 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 11.19% to my 11.10%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 139,949 to 150,047 and the short percentage would be 11.90%.

    Volume came back today (near 2.5 times yesterday's) along with a decidedly negative bias in price even though the buy percentage almost doubled.

    The price volatility was relatively high, having a range of 7.4%. Our highs came early in the day, as we might expect based on past behavior, and we hit it at 10:45. From the open through then was low volume, 13.1K shares, and price tried to remain "higher" a bit longer, managing $0.1342 from then through 12:18. But even then the writing was on the wall as volatility put lows during the period at $0.1320 and the high at $0.1369, a 3.71% spread, and the trades that were sells far outnumbered the buys, along with the volume. For the rest of the day we managed a VWAP of $0.1299, again with volatility as we had a low of $0.1290 and a high of $0.1370, a 6.2% range.

    In the end, the volume and volatility makes me think we might see some price movement in the following days. With the buy:sell recovering to above 30% there is hope that it might be up. In my judgement that's unlikely as all the recent action continues to suggest a lot of hitting the bids, indicative of "financiers" that bought at the 85% price around $0.1148 in the first week of the month (9/6?) are dumping at a nice very short-term profit. I expect this to continue for quite some time.

    The value of trades today was $164,327.30, a volume-induced move up from yesterday's $73,427 in spite of a lower VWAP from yesterday's $0.1319.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    09/09: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1347, x 85%: $0.1145
    09/10: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1346, x 85%: $0.1144

    Vol, in K, for above days: 556.79, 1,261.

    My original inflection point calculations still suggest that things are weakening, with the one-day change percentages essentially flat from yesterday and still in the negative direction. The percentage change over five days suggests a reduction in weakening in all but the 200-day period. Generally these numbers are "stronger" than the one-day changes. The rate of change percentages are mixed though. All told, no sigh of bullishness, but suggestive of reducing weakening.

    On my newer calculations, the one-day changes are even "flatter", being more suggestive of "no change in behavior" short-term. The percentage change over five days is positive in all periods and relatively strong. If we weren't in a weakening trend, I would think they might offer hope for a reversal but there's a deep hole (negative raw readings) that needs to be climbed out of before anything approaching sunlight can be seen. The rate of change over five days supports this view - weakening in the 5-day calculation even as the other periods display a mild improvement.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    09/09/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 78 MinTrSz: 225 MaxTrSz: 50000 Vol 556787 AvTrSz: 7138
    Min. Pr: 0.1305 Max Pr: 0.1350 VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1319
    # Buys, Shares: 12 97700 VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1329
    # Sells, Shares: 66 459087 VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1317
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0 VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:4.70 (13.78%) DlyShts 76725 (17.5% "buys"), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 16.71%

    There were two AH trades totaling 19K that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 537,787 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 14.72% to my 13.78%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 76,725 to 95,725 and the short percentage would be 17.19%.

    The general improvement which began 9/6 (Friday) continued today (but barely IMO) as buy percentage continued to improve from Thursday's eighth-worst ever (11.5%) to 16.8% and now 17.5%. This is, again, only a reduction in negative indication, not an indicator of any bullishness. Volume stayed up off the recent lows and at least got above the 10-day average. It's still low, as indicated by the longer-term averages (in thousands, 492, 890, 778 and 623 for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages).

    The buy percentage improvement, as small as it is, is still misleading I think. This is because from 11:37 onward only six trades (52.5K shares) were "buys" out of 57 trades (~301.6K shares).

    Although the price-spread seems rather narrow, it was ~3.5%. However, after the opening seven trades, 6 of which were at $0.1350 for 107.5K shares (19.3% of day's volume), we never got above $0.1324 and the VWAP for the rest of the day was $0.1311. Without those early trades the spread was only 1.07%.

    We closed slightly up from yesterday's $0.1305 at $0.1310. We also had a higher low ($0.1305 vs. $0.1300) and lower high. In normal times this would look a lot like typical consolidation - volume relatively low, narrowing price spread, and (not traditional TA) buy:sell low but slowly improving.

    The bid/ask action was fairly typical with early improvement in the bids and weakening of the asks. With the percentage of "sells" being so high, indicating a lot of hitting the bids, the ask action is almost irrelevant, other than to allow astute traders on the buy side to rapidly adjust their bids lower if they choose to be patient.

    I would give a breakdown of trading throughout the day but it would be useless now because this post is so tardy (due to delays in being able to recover the day's data from a broken computer node). Besides, with the price action and spread already noted, there would be little added value.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    09/09: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1347, x 85%: $0.1145

    Vol, in K, for above days: 556.79.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.

    09/06/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 116 MinTrSz: 100 MaxTrSz: 50000 Vol 726300 AvTrSz: 6261
    Min. Pr: 0.1300 Max Pr: 0.1390 VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1330
    # Buys, Shares: 22 121950 VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1343
    # Sells, Shares: 94 604350 VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1328
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0 VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:4.96 (16.8% "buys"), DlyShts 37100 (5.11%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 6.14%

    We had a generally better day today - volume came back, we had some price rise early in the session followed by some weakness into the late afternoon, another price rise and then the normal late-day weakness appeared. We closed flat with yesterday (a horrid day) at $0.1305. We end with a better VWAP over yesterday's $0.1322 (and $0.1314 the day before that).

    Also, we started trading right off the bat and although it briefly looked like another low volume day, the trading frequency increased as the day progressed and, as can be seen below, really started to come in after lunch time.

    Further, although it didn't end up "good", our buy:sell did improve from yesterday's eighth worst buy percentage since I've been tracking, 11.5%. Don't take this as much of a "bullish" indicator though - we need to see it over 30% (preferably 35%+) before we can look for some positive in it. For now, it's just less negative, not positive by any stretch.

    Early on the bids more or less floundered up and down a bit. Around 11:30 they got to a low level and stayed there until around 14:30. They then had a mild upward bias until the "late-day weakness", which was tardy compared to yesterday, came in for the lat 15 minutes of the party, give us the party favor of a second consecutive $0.1305 close on the day.

    A breakdown of trading throughout the day will give a feel for the behavior.
    09:30-10:08: 017000 shares, 02.34% of vol, VWAP $0.1327, 0.0% buys
    10:15-10:50: 056100 shares, 07.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1380, 64.3% buys
    10:52-13:04: 048950 shares, 06.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1323, 25.0% buys
    13:07-14:16: 135200 shares, 18.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1308, 7.4% buys
    14:32-14:51: 084250 shares, 11.60% of vol, VWAP $0.1321, 29.7% buys
    14:51-15:34: 234000 shares, 32.22% of vol, VWAP $0.1350, 4.7% buys
    15:35-15:46: 081700 shares, 11.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1312, 8.0% buys
    15:46-15:58: 069100 shares, 09.51% of vol, VWAP $0.1305, 30.5% buys

    By price ranges:
    $0.1300-$0.1311: 265100 shares, 36.50% of vol, VWAP $0.1307, b:s 1:16.67, 5.7% buys
    $0.1315-$0.1324: 120350 shares, 16.57% of vol, VWAP $0.1321, b:s 1:1.36, 42.5% buys
    $0.1325-$0.1349: 074250 shares, 10.22% of vol, VWAP $0.1332, b:s 1:9.24, 9.8% buys
    $0.1350-$0.1369: 219500 shares, 30.22% of vol, VWAP $0.1352, b:s 1:18.09, 5.2% buys
    $0.1375-$0.1390: 047100 shares, 06.48% of vol, VWAP $0.1385, b:s 3.71:1, 78.8% buys

    The value of trades today was $96,622.85, a big improvement over yesterday's $31,843.3930. Based on John's comment, we don't have to worry about yesterday's low volume - the "measuring period" appears to start this coming Monday, 9/9.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    09/03: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1370, x 85%: $0.1164
    09/04: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1363, x 85%: $0.1158
    09/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1356, x 85%: $0.1153
    09/06: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1351, x 85%: $0.1148

    Vol, in K, for above days: 852.89, 260.08, 240.81, 726.30.

    Not surprisingly, both my original and newer inflection point calculations are all agreeing that things are weakening, except the newer 25-day period change over five days. But as with any oddball that goes against the crowd, we should ignore that. :-))

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.

    09/05/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 41 MinTrSz: 500 MaxTrSz: 31500 Vol 240810 AvTrSz: 5873
    Min. Pr: 0.1305 Max Pr: 0.1348 VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1322
    # Buys, Shares: 6 27760 VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1348
    # Sells, Shares: 35 213050 VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1319
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0 VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:7.67 (11.5% "buys"), DlyShts 7000 (02.91%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 3.29%

    Interesting day. Through 12:40 only two trades totaling 7K shares. Also interesting is daily short sales were 7K. I suspect related.

    The first order was at 10:21 and the second at 12:01. Matching the behavior, the best ask at 9:31 was $0.1348x5K (BTIG), moved to $0.1347x10K (ATDF) at 10:42 and didn't move again until 15:11 when BTIG's ask was exposed as trades finally had some volume appear and took out ATDF's offer.

    Bids had a somewhat similar behavior, initially, with the initial bid of $0.1309x5K (NITE) at 9:31 holding until 10:19 when ATDF bested that with a $0.131x10K at 10:18. Went back to $0.1309 at 11:12 and that held until 13:05 when a $0.134x20.5K from ETRF appeared. That remained until 13:05 when a flurry (relatively speaking) of up and down bid changes occurred until 14:35. That period had five moves between $0.1311 and $0.134, ending at $0.1311.

    That held until 15:19 when 7 changes from then until the close occurred, finishing at a $0.1305 best bid. As suggested by the "late-day weakness" discussion below, most of the trades were "hitting the bid" later in the day.

    In spite of all that, the normal "late-day weakness" appeared around 13:26. Of the subsequent 38 trades, only four were "buys". Welcome to the "dump fest".

    Fortunately, the bids had been improving while trying to get some shares today and in spite of the dumping the trades had some "decent" prices on volume before the bid got back down to $0.1305 four minutes before the close. That accounts for the VWAP holding up relatively well in spite of the eighth worst buy percentage since I've been tracking: 00.0%, 0.07%, 5.4%, 6.4%, 7.9%, 9.0%, 9.3% and 11.5% (today).

    ATDF was at the top of the offers early on, then BTIG and finally PERT with the $0.1305 at EOD.

    The value of trades today was only $31843.3930. Early on this prompted me to recall there was a trading volume requirement defined in the "Equity Condition" stuff in the financing agreement. I commented on it here and JP was kind enough to add some clarification here and helped define the next upcoming measurement period here.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    09/03: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1370, x 85%: $0.1164
    09/04: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1363, x 85%: $0.1158
    09/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1356, x 85%: $0.1153

    Vol, in K, for above days: 852.89, 260.08, 240.81.

    With the low volume and continued volatility in my experimental stuff, there's no point in an extended discussion of them. They are mixed and weakening, generally, as could be expected.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.

    09/04/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 58 MinTrSz: 471 MaxTrSz: 35000 Vol 260078 AvTrSz: 4484
    Min. Pr: 0.1300 Max Pr: 0.1340 VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1314
    # Buys, Shares: 13 84678 VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1319
    # Sells, Shares: 44 173400 VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1311
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 2000 VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1309
    Buy:Sell 1:2.05 (32.6% "buys"), DlyShts 60471 (23.25%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 34.87%

    The normal "late-day weakness" came to work early today, starting right off the bat. The work crew was missing ARCA though - they wandered in around 13:40. In 22 peeks at the ask, 15 were reductions in the ask price, 4 were increases and 3 were unchanged. In 14 bid peeks, 4 were reductions, 8 were increases and 2 were unchanged.

    As usual ATDF was the most active on the offers and BTIG also made a strong showing. NITE and CDEL were not so active today. CSTI made a couple appearances too.

    It was good to see the buy:sell move back to normal as the price range stayed above $0.13 and produced a very narrow spread today. Volume was off big - down 69.5% from yesterday and below my four averages (in thousands: 664, 882, 804 and 613). With the volume down and the daily short sales volume +9.8%, the daily short percentage moved up substantially. Not enough to qualify as the spike I'm expecting, but just another vacillation around a middle point of a mostly sideways trend for now.

    Average trade size was to the low side today. The 10-day average trade size has rolled over without producing any substantial price movement yet. I wonder if this is side-effect of the changed "presents" of 5K now instead of the 2.5K that were standard when the prior correlation between the 10-day average size and price was seen. Maybe it's just deferred a couple days? Maybe because everyone knows a the "financiers" will shortly get reloaded?

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    09/03: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1370, x 85%: $0.1164
    09/04: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1363, x 85%: $0.1158

    Vol, in K, for above days: 852.89, 260.08.

    Volatility seems to be reducing in both versions of my inflection point calculations, with the newer version more strongly suggesting that.

    The original version has one-day changes all moving in a positive direction: three periods showing increase strengthening and three showing reducing weakening. Since the underlying numbers are all still negative, I assess the current situation as reduction in the rate of weakening, although the changes are relatively pretty decent.

    The changes over five days are showing improvement in all six periods and the improvements are "healthy". Maybe they are, at last, suggesting some reduction in the volatility and the start of a trend.

    The rate of change over the five days has all six periods showing improvement too, supporting what the change over five days suggests. Regardless, knowing that new shares will be entering the market soon, we might want to be a bit cautious in weighing these changes.

    The newer version one-day changes are slightly less positive, but still show improvement in all six periods. Two periods have transitioned from "reducing weakening" to strengthening. The other four all show reducing weakening.

    The changes over five days counter what the one-day changes show with only the two short-term periods showing improvement. This suggests more positive price action may be coming, but we can't say a trend in that direction has even started. However, the changes in five of the six periods over five days has have had positive numbers for four consecutive days and the sixth (5-day) has had positive numbers five consecutive days. This suggests both a positive trend and reduced volatility may be arriving.

    The rate of change over five days has the same positive numbers configuration across the periods. ATM all are showing reducing strengthening. They have not flipped negative, but just are less positive than yesterday. For now this is only suggesting a slowing of strengthening.

    In aggregate, considering both the original and newer versions, I think we just are in another period of transition to something else. They might be just reflecting the uncertainty over what to do with the "financiers" about to get another boatload of shares and wondering what they are or will be doing - dumping or accumulating. There might also be some hope for news playing into all this.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.

    09/03/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 108, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 85000, Vol 852891, AvTrSz: 7897
    Min. Pr: 0.1300 Max Pr: 0.1370 VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1326
    # Buys, Shares: 36 260591 VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1333
    # Sells, Shares: 72 592300 VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1323
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0 VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.27 (30.6% "buys") DlyShts 55000 (06.45%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 9.29%

    There was an attempt earlier in the day to push price up with the bids generally increasing and the asks weakening. The usual players now on the ask did the dastardly deed: CDEL BTIG ATDF ARCA. Between them they managed to drop the ask eleven times, raise it (by accident mostly as asks were "uncovered") five time and leave it unchanged six times in the 22 peeks I took.

    Meanwhile bids increased 12 times, decreased 5 times (partly through uncovering) and was unchanged once in the 18 peeks I took. As usual ATDF was the most active there, with cameo appearances at the top of the bid by NITE, ETRF and CDEL.

    Today was a perfect example of "late-day weakness" spoiling a perfectly good attempt to push price up a little bit. Note the last four entries as price went from the high VWAP to the low.
    09:30-09:58: 038000 shares, 04.46% of vol, VWAP $0.1324, 63.2% buys
    10:03-10:30: 029300 shares, 03.44% of vol, VWAP $0.1316, 61.4% buys
    10:34-10:49: 034500 shares, 04.05% of vol, VWAP $0.1314, 31.9% buys
    11:01-11:26: 020891 shares, 02.45% of vol, VWAP $0.1318, 76.1% buys
    11:34-11:45: 058000 shares, 06.80% of vol, VWAP $0.1319, 41.4% buys
    12:01-12:07: 019000 shares, 02.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1320, 00.0% buys
    13:01-13:25: 037500 shares, 04.40% of vol, VWAP $0.1337, 64.0% buys
    13:38-13:56: 281000 shares, 32.95% of vol, VWAP $0.1355, 37.7% buys
    14:01-14:56: 091400 shares, 10.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1306, 02.2% buys
    15:00-15:28: 087200 shares, 10.22% of vol, VWAP $0.1308, 24.9% buys
    15:34-15:59: 156100 shares, 18.30% of vol, VWAP $0.1302, 09.0% buys

    Our spread was narrow today, but we had some larger bullish buys appear that tried to overcome the typical late-day weakness. So I think a price break down might be interesting. Note the first two entries and the last constitute most (> 70%) of the day's volume.
    $0.1300-$0.1306: 268800 shares, 31.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1301, 0.0% buys
    $0.1310-$0.1312: 105000 shares, 12.31% of vol, VWAP $0.1311, b:s 1:10.67, 8.6% buys
    $0.1318-$0.1319: 072200 shares, 08.47% of vol, VWAP $0.1318, b:s 1:2.61, 27.7% buys
    $0.1320-$0.1320: 092591 shares, 10.86% of vol, VWAP $0.1320, b:s 17.52:1, 94.6% buys
    $0.1325-$0.1340: 067300 shares, 07.89% of vol, VWAP $0.1334, b:s 1.89:1, 65.4% buys
    $0.1350-$0.1370: 247000 shares, 28.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1361, b:s 1:1.47, 40.5% buys This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue: 09/03: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1370, x 85%: $0.1164 Vol, in K, for above days: 852.89.

    Daily short sales percentage is continuing the sideways trend. It's hard to guess how long it will go - heck it's even not that easy to decide when it starts. My best thought ATM is another 3 - 5 days? Then we should get our spike with some kind of price movement around the same time.

    Average trade size was high. We had some nice size bids in there and they got done mostly as "sells". Here's the trades over 10K, which constitute 37.9% of the day's volume. All were sells but the two exceptions marked. Without these larger trades the average trade size was ~5,464, around the 100-day average of 5,711. The 10, 25 and 50-day averages are 6,758, 6,442 and 6,254 respectively.
    $0.1350 85000 buy
    $0.1370 47000
    $0.1301 34200
    $0.1370 31000
    $0.1370 30000
    $0.1311 24200
    $0.1302 20000
    $0.1301 14000
    $0.1311 14000
    $0.1305 12500
    $0.1319 11000 buy

    It's a shame that buy percentage continues to weaken and is now below what I think is normal. Including today: 12.3%, 43.4%, 35.6%, 31.9% and 30.6%. The 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages through yesterday: 33%, 35%, 37% and 39%. All but the last two, which are flat, are trending lower ATM.

    Both versions of my inflection point calculations continue to have high volatility and really can't be very helpful for now. Having said that, the original version has everything mixed. It's hard to determine a trend ATM just from the numbers. The charts suggests a weakening trend.

    The newer version is also mixed, but the weakening seems less pronounced. In fact, the rate of change over five days are all showing positive moves. For now this is only suggesting a slowing of weakness increases.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    Disclosure: I am long AXPW.

    Stocks: AXPW
Back To H. T. Love's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.