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H. T. Love's  Instablog

H. T. Love
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Spent over 30 years in computer systems work, many different functions. Owned my own business for awhile. Got tired of it (managing employees is not my baliwick) and stopped doing it professionally. Did other things, off and on, for some more years and finally bumped into this investing/trading... More
  • AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 10/1/2013 22 comments
    Oct 2, 2013 9:20 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    Now that we are several months into the PIPE effects, I see that my experimental stuff, which had normal markets in mind, is much less useful for now. I do believe it the history of data and calculations may be useful in detecting when normalcy begins to return and also provide a template of possible effects of other PIPE financing deals for other folks down the road. So I'll keep capturing the data and updating the charts.

    I'll also keep examining stuff but will chop my commentary down to minimal comments unless something really exceptional pops up.

    To help keep the instablog shorter, I truncate some of the historical metrics, but keep enough here to hopefully keep the context clear and helpful.

    The following is the same as for the last few issues of this blog, except for adding some commentary about short interest reducing now and guesses as to why daily short sales are in the tank again, and the old hands can skip right down to the charts and daily postings without missing much, other than my guess as to the meaning of the short interest reduction and why daily shorts are down.

    Folks new to what's going on with the PIPE financing deal may want to read some of the stuff below, and especially follow the links, to get an understanding of some of the risks and potential effects of this financing deal. The effects are long-term and there will be secondary effects extending well beyond short-term price suppression. You should carefully consider the implications.

    FocalPoint Analytics has posted an important explanation of the financing arrangements under which Axion is laboring. If you have not read it YOU SHOULD IMMEDIATELY DO SO!

    John Petersen has posted an article, Understanding The Mechanics And Incentives In Axion Power's PIPE which is a must-read and also a Seeking Alpha editor's pick.

    Tom Konrad authored some articles in Forbes magazine that should be read. These are linked in the concentrators, so I won't duplicate them here.

    Regardless of anything else, the following from the prior concentrator seems to me to be important. If you've not read this stuff, as well as the above links, I believe you should do so.

    Axion share price is currently suffering under, apparently, the effects of a rather onerous, IMO, financing arrangement which may end up being highly dilutive. See the details of financing filing,
    "29. CERTAIN DEFINITIONS", item (k) "Company Conversion Price" on page 36, (ii) "Pre-Installment Conversion Price" detailed on page 43, and (xx) "VWAP" on page 45, all in the provided link, so that you can check my math. The VWAP determination may not match my calculations, although I would be surprised if it didn't.

    Also keep in mind when you read the sections that these calculations can be overridden to a lower price, 85% of the VWAP on the last trading day before the share issuance.

    The problem with the financing, IMO, is that the financiers cannot lose. In fact, over the long term if Axion is successful the financiers profit the greatest the more shares they own at a lower price, just as we would. They get a guaranteed lower price than we can get though. This provides an incentive for them to drive price as low as possible because the details of the financing deal give them shares at ever-decreasing prices very likely at or below the then-current share price, which can be immediately sold (if they've not shorted already) into the market, driving the price even lower. Folks more knowledgeable than I have commented in the APCs on these PIPE (Private Investment Public Equity) financing deals and the vultures they attract.

    Possibly supporting my take on this is that just before the notice of effectiveness for the financing deal, on 6/4/2013 IIRC, we had a big jump in the semimonthly short reports for 5/15/2013, 5/31/2013 and now 6/14/2013. The first one, 5/15, didn't cause me much concern because it could be just normal MM daily shorts, as explained here. The 6/14 volume, 1,187,574, also didn't cause me much concern, but only because of the daily shorts reported during that time-frame, mentioned in this comment. Some discussion of my thoughts about all this are in a comment on my instablog.

    Recent short reports show that the standing short interest has been cut substantially. I take this as a sign that someone took profits and somehow now believes that price may not fall much further and/or their cost-basis for their long position is now so low that hedging is no longer worthwhile.

    Some folks, based on the prohibitions mentioned here against a net short position, may think that shorting by the financiers is not allowed. Please note the distinction between "short position" and "net short position". My take is that hedging their long positions by going short would not violate the prohibition. Since there will be a bias towards downward price pressure anyway until "big news" emerges, I think that shorting for both hedging and driving price down will occur to allow accumulation of a greater number of shares by the financiers.

    With all this in mind, I added a line to my daily EOD postings in the APC that shows my estimated next issue price if it went off that day. I also show a bit of its history so that the progression (regression?) trend can be seen.

    The last thing I want to mention related to this is the fails to deliver. As mentioned in the previous blog, I had been expecting this to show increased activity and it did. It wasn't a lot, but from zero for a couple months to having some activity around the time of the PIPE share issuance is notable.

    In light of the increased semimonthly short report volumes, I expected this to become a trend and that seems to have occurred.. There's a link below to that blog, which is updated about every two weeks as new data becomes available. Unfortunately, the data is available too late to be of much use other than for confirming or debunking my suspicions.

    With the publication of the Forbes article, there seems to have been change in daily short sales. My feeling is that we can't see any real sustained price appreciation without "normal" market-making activity and the volume (liquidity) that should accompany it. When we have those, we have the possibility of sustained trends, both up and down, giving us the "waves" necessary for traders and investors to have confidence in the risk/reward profiles, permitting them to enter the market with the hope of doing well.

    For some time we did not have "normal" market-making, as detailed when John Petersen posted back in January about a big drop in the daily short sales starting back in November of '12. Interestingly, this was about the same time we all thought the "big uglies" were exhausted and I also posted that I thought we might be starting a move up, which we did. Go figure!

    Daily short sales trended back to normal for some time and then again dropped to abnormally low levels prior to the Forbes articles. Subsequent to the Forbes articles they have now trended up into the normal areas and should bounce around there as long as we have good volume and no extended further severe depreciation in price (note though the next paragraph). This seems to be an effect of having more market-makers active as when we have ATDF, NITE, CDEL as the only active MMs we seem to have extended periods of very low daily short sales. Currently we have those, ARCA, BNCH, BTIG, ETRF, CSTI, PERT and TEJS all more active and aggressive than formerly. Not aggressive, but appearing usually "in the background", off and on, are PUMA, MAXM, RAFF and VERT (infrequent). This increase in number of "active" market-makers and increased aggressiveness, for all but ATDF which has always been so, began with the PIPE financing.

    I believe that regardless of this increase and daily shorts returning to "normal" trends, we will have continued price depression until big news appears. I discussed this in a little more detail in my prior blog, which is in the list of links below.

    In the first week of June, roughly a month after the PIPE deal effective date, daily short sales began a long trend downward. I think this is a result of the PIPE shares ending up under control of brokers that have wholly-owned market-makers, meaning the shares being sold are under the control of those market-makers and so do not qualify as a short sale. There may also be some market-makers that are well-capitalized who are taking short-term long positions (possibly as a result of covering buys at lower than short sale prices allowing incoming shares backing customer sell orders to be sold for additional profit), within their risk-management profiles. These larger market-makers are also more likely to make intra-broker trades, also resulting in reduced daily short sales.

    Regardless of the validity of daily short sales supporting John's thesis that the "big uglies" are out, his thesis is, IMO, valid and supported by AXPW Fails-to-deliver Charts 2/11/2013, with data through the current latest reporting period. The updated data is made available about every two weeks and I update my instablog's charts shortly after each update becomes available. In summary, after a period of no fails to deliver they began to appear again when the PIPE financing was done. Not high, not consistent and not of long duration. But the return of them tells us there is something going on again related to failing to deliver shares in a normal T+3 period.

    At the same time, we had the semi-monthly short interest reports show a large and sustained increase in short interest. It has substantially reduced as of this writing. More extensive thoughts on this are also in some older blogs.

    What follows is my normal boilerplate and the long-time readers can skip on down to the charts.

    I've been manually collecting this data for about 19 months now while volume was low and it was therefore reasonable to do so. I'll stop when it gets too arduous unless I can craft a mechanized capture of most of the stuff.

    I've captured enough data now that I can reasonably expect to be able to detect patterns on the charts that may signal, somewhat reliably, when price moves are about to occur. To help more easily identify any useful patterns, I've made an instablog, Axion Power International (OTCQB:AXPW) 2/13/2012 And Forward One Year Experimental Charts Snapshots. I've also added some lines to them that may assist in this. For anybody with an interest, I welcome any suggestions and/or help.

    I'll update this instablog daily as long as I can for anybody that might find it useful. The charts will stay near the top and the text updates detailing daily data and expressing my most recent thoughts will follow after the charts.

    I've arranged the chart segments in this instablog to put what I think are related stuff close together.

    This is the thirteenth installment of the original "AXPW: Some Intra-Day Trade Charting" instablogs I've started doing on Seeking Alpha. The others grew, as I added daily commentary and FINRA data, to the point I was afraid the load time might become an irritant for folks that have less internet bandwidth or older computing equipment so I've started rolling to a new one aperiodically.

    Versions subsequent to the original (latest to oldest) can be found here.

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 9/1/2013

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 8/1/2013

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 7/1/2013

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 6/1/2013

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 5/1/2013

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 3/1/2013

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 02/01/2013

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 12/15/2012

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 11/14/2012

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 9/6/2012 - Xx/xx/2012

    AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 7/7/2012 - 9/5/2012

    In the below chart note that the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!

    (right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

    AXPW Intra-day Statistics Chart 20131031

    The following are modified inflection point calculations bracketing a price chart for comparison. Note that the false bullish moves and contrary moves of the 5-day has been eliminated.

    The two inflection points are calculated identically but differently from the original above. I have two different presentations of these newer versions. The top one has all periods on the same scale. The bottom one has longer periods on the left scale and shorter periods on the right scale. The hope is that shorter period changes will be easier to spot because of both the increased visual scale and the offset from the zero point of the long-term scale. More work to do, this is a start, hopefully.

    I've identified some changes I want to try on the new inflection point calculations but haven't had time to implement them yet. I'll work them in over time after a little experimentation.

    Comments and further suggestions welcome.

    (right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

    AXPW Intra-day Statistics Chart Test IP Calculations 20131031

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", inflection point calculations values, and end-of-week 85% PIPE price factors are now only in the latest daily comment - attempting to keep things shorter for faster loading.

    10/31/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 84, MinTrSz: 217, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol: 613756, AvTrSz: 7307
    Min. Pr: 0.1200, Max Pr: 0.1300, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1222
    # Buys, Shares: 23 129976, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1237
    # Sells, Shares: 60 473780, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1218
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1230
    Buy:Sell 1:3.65 (21.2% "buys"), DlyShts 47977 (7.82%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 10.13%

    There was one AH trade of 5K that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 608,756 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 7.88% to my 7.82%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 47,977 to 52,977 and the short percentage would be 8.63%.

    The pattern of buy:sell and daily short volume and percentage I mentioned yesterday continued today. We ended with trade volume down -8.83% and daily short sales down -56.10%, moving daily short percentage to 7.82%, down -51.85% from yesterday, which was down -52.25% from the prior day.

    Again we ended at a weak buy percentage and it could've been worse. At 12:18 we had a buy percentage of 8.13% (91.87% were sells) on volume of 191,577, ~31.2% of the day's trade volume.

    ARCA appeared at 10:06 today and just sat on an offer of $0.124. There was no apparent effort to move down to entice buyers. They are exhibiting different behavior again. With no nibbles they went away at 11:55 and didn't come back until 12:22. They left again at 12:49 and came back at 13:26. They didn't start pushing on the offer until 13:55. From $0.1244 at 13:50 they had the offer down to $0.1225 by 14:00, $0.121 by 15:39 and $0.1205 by 15:49, after allowing a small rise back to $0.124 at 15:44.

    Yesterday it looked like the drop below the 50-day SMA I've been expecting was here as we traded almost exclusively below it. Today we're wrapped around it again - the 50-day SMA is $0.1244, almost exactly in the middle of today's range.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    10/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018
    10/29: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018
    10/30: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1197, x 85%: $0.1017
    10/31: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1195, x 85%: $0.1016

    Vol, in K, for above days: 564.85, 542.55, 673.22, 613.76.

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. 10/10 was the first big volume day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.

    10/09 $0.1039 -04.92% 16.3%
    10/10 $0.1106 +06.54% 48.2%
    10/11 $0.1246 +12.58% 43.1%
    10/14 $0.1258 +00.97% 36.3%
    10/15 $0.1269 +00.86% 45.6%
    10/16 $0.1277 +00.70% 43.5%
    10/17 $0.1237 -03.16% 33.1%
    10/18 $0.1286 +03.97% 47.3%
    10/21 $0.1283 -00.23% 34.7%
    10/22 $0.1334 +02.74% 39.6%
    10/23 $0.1322 -00.72% 31.1%
    10/24 $0.1285 -02.80% 25.1%
    10/25 $0.1254 -02.37% 27.8%
    10/28 $0.1267 +01.00% 36.0%
    10/29 $0.1274 +00.54% 55.6%
    10/30 $0.1232 -03.25% 23.3%
    10/31 $0.1222 -00.84% 21.2%

    Here's an arbitrary trading breakdown by price for today.
    $0.1200-$0.1215: 171900 shrs, 28.01% of vol, VWAP $0.1205, b:s 1:8.34, 10.7% buys
    $0.1220-$0.1230: 360699 shrs, 58.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1222, b:s 1:7.68, 11.2% buys
    $0.1240-$0.1250: 063158 shrs, 10.29% of vol, VWAP $0.1247, 100% buys
    $0.1275-$0.1300: 017999 shrs, 02.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1285, b:s 1:1.25, 44.4% buys

    Here's an arbitrary breakdown by time.
    09:30-09:50: 034999 shrs, 05.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1249, 14.3% buys
    10:00-10:06: 049578 shrs, 08.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1220, 13.3% buys
    10:50-10:51: 006000 shrs, 00.98% of vol, VWAP $0.1230, 0.0% buys
    11:02-11:07: 033500 shrs, 05.46% of vol, VWAP $0.1223, 0.0% buys
    11:52-11:58: 029000 shrs, 04.73% of vol, VWAP $0.1219, 13.8% buys
    12:07-12:18: 038500 shrs, 06.27% of vol, VWAP $0.1202, 0.0% buys
    12:49-12:51: 018000 shrs, 02.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1213, 50.0% buys
    13:01-13:29: 070580 shrs, 11.50% of vol, VWAP $0.1243, 83.0% buys
    13:31-13:57: 106500 shrs, 17.35% of vol, VWAP $0.1226, 5.1% buys
    15:25-16:00: 227099 shrs, 37.00% of vol, VWAP $0.1214, 18.2% buys

    Average trade size of 7,307 remained "normal" today, right in range of the averages recently affected by the "pop": 83,45, 7,939, 7,506 and 6,753 for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages respectively.

    On the traditional TA front, as seen the last few days, the oscillators I watch are still weakening. Stochastic again continued deeper into oversold. Williams %R is oversold and nearly bottomed. Momentum is downward now with a below-neutral reading of ~94.

    As mentioned, we are trading around the 50-day SMA, $0.1244 now. We closed well below it for the second consecutive day though. Also, our VWAP has been below it for two days now.

    My original "flaky" inflection point calculations are still reflecting the improved 10/29 buy:sell in the 5 and 10-day periods. All the rest are now recovering to the trend in place in price and buy:sell.

    My newer version is in the same state.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are omitted from the concentrator.

    Week ending values related to the PIPE 85% share pricing:
    06/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2315, x 85%: $0.1968 VWAP $0.2122
    06/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.2176, x 85%: $0.1850 VWAP $0.1751
    06/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1956, x 85%: $0.1663 VWAP $0.1474
    07/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1805, x 85%: $0.1534 VWAP $0.1518
    07/12: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1657, x 85%: $0.1408 VWAP $0.1403
    07/19: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1539, x 85%: $0.1309 VWAP $0.1543
    07/26: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 VWAP $0.1555
    08/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 VWAP $0.1733
    08/05: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1524, x 85%: $0.1295 VWAP $0.1410
    08/16: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1447, x 85%: $0.1230 VWAP $0.1348
    08/23: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1423, x 85%: $0.1210 VWAP $0.1337
    08/30: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1378, x 85%: $0.1171 VWAP $0.1343
    09/06: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1351, x 85%: $0.1148 VWAP $0.1330
    09/13: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1327, x 85%: $0.1128 VWAP $0.1285
    09/20: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1301, x 85%: $0.1105 VWAP $0.1256
    09/27: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1273, x 85%: $0.1082 VWAP $0.1227
    10/04: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1243, x 85%: $0.1056 VWAP $0.1155
    10/11: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1200, x 85%: $0.1020 VWAP $0.1246
    10/18: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018 VWAP $0.1286
    10/25: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018 VWAP $0.1254

    Vol, in thousands, for above weeks: 4,356, 1,934, 3910, 1,217, 2902, 5041, 2731, 3889, 6920, 6,522, 2,285, 2,080 (short week), 4,178, 2,929, 3,439, 4,406, 6,963, 13,769 and 9,640.

    The 10/11 week was affected by PR of an Axion/NSC presentation at a conference. The effect carried over into the week ending 10/18 with ~2.89MM shares traded that Monday, 10/14. The week ended 10/18 had ~13.8MM shares traded.

    On my ORIGINAL inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
    ---- 1-day change ----
    10/22 -10.5% -00.5% -04.8% -03.4% -02.8% -03.7%
    10/23 -18.7% -09.9% -04.3% -03.4% -03.2% -03.3%
    10/24 +16.6% -08.5% -01.5% -00.5% -01.9% -02.2%
    10/25 -17.3% -04.3% -02.0% -00.4% -01.6% -02.0%
    10/28 +18.6% +07.7% +01.3% +02.6% -01.3% -02.1%
    10/29 +27.0% +08.6% +07.3% +00.9% +01.1% -00.2%
    10/30 +22.4% -01.9% -02.3% -00.5% +00.8% +01.4%
    10/31 +09.5% +14.4% -01.1% +01.0% -00.5% -04.1%
    ---- 5-day change ----
    10/22 -086.9% -416.3% -053.1% -035.2% -008.9% -019.8%
    10/23 -054.8% -119.1% -030.6% -070.6% -017.8% -015.8%
    10/24 +090.4% +013.4% +029.0% +029.9% +022.1% +019.0%
    10/25 -445.3% -053.7% -012.1% -011.1% -006.8% -018.2%
    10/28 +087.7% +058.3% +035.5% +053.2% +010.1% +006.4%
    10/29 +892.4% +067.7% +110.7% +086.6% +035.8% +024.7%
    10/30 +110.0% +159.1% +168.7% +446.5% +057.9% +047.2%
    10/31 -022.5% +842.8% +015.2% +065.0% +048.8% -040.3%
    ---- 5-day rate of change ----
    10/22 -019.6% -330.2% -132.0% -120.3% -045.2% -031.5%
    10/23 -032.0% -124.6% -051.1% -992.7% -065.0% -026.6%
    10/24 +135.5% +044.6% +061.5% +076.6% +103.5% +083.8%
    10/25 -115.0% -076.5% +003.2% -121.5% -479.5% -247.1%
    10/28 +517.2% +056.8% +097.0% +117.5% +145.7% +047.7%
    10/29 +312.8% +139.7% +6474.8% +682.0% +1067.0% +208.0%
    10/30 +079.2% +298.8% +039.9% +117.6% +116.4% +240.6%
    10/31 -055.2% +068.6% -023.3% -016.1% -015.4% -051.8%

    On my NEWER inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
    ---- 1-day change ----
    10/22 +006.84% +019.50% +008.22% +009.10% +012.28% +014.74%
    10/23 -039.23% -031.06% -013.64% -011.69% -013.30% -017.83%
    10/24 +002.80% -033.04% -015.42% -013.11% -017.55% -023.26%
    10/25 -027.34% -017.91% -012.88% -010.12% -013.10% -016.75%
    10/28 +021.97% +012.64% +005.66% +006.95% +003.59% +002.67%
    10/29 +029.39% +011.94% +009.37% +003.39% +004.35% +002.59%
    10/30 +019.70% -008.79% -010.62% -007.00% -006.30% -005.04%
    10/31 +012.16% +015.65% +000.93% +003.09% +002.12% -004.15%
    ---- 5-day change ----
    10/22 -017.33% -005.01% +018.70% +036.10% +035.35% +033.11%
    10/23 -046.02% -094.29% -031.00% -035.20% -008.42% -003.66%
    10/24 +083.20% +022.68% +037.99% +049.76% +051.41% +051.76%
    10/25 -309.14% -103.17% -093.23% -134.52% -128.10% -144.88%
    10/28 +065.75% +046.75% +036.09% +045.04% +027.26% +023.48%
    10/29 +118.57% -005.04% +013.46% -028.93% -024.61% -027.26%
    10/30 +1149.63% +29.51% +000.75% +011.72% +011.70% +016.01%
    10/31 +008.54% +171.28% +071.34% +084.85% +067.00% +040.00%
    ---- 5-day rate of change ----
    10/22 -007.17% -032.71% -003.79% +001.47% +010.14% +009.31%
    10/23 -017.68% -041.64% -018.86% -020.19% -007.80% -004.10%
    10/24 +112.84% +063.35% +074.25% +081.87% +087.94% +085.01%
    10/25 -159.40% -049.67% +026.85% +073.57% +178.34% +134.78%
    10/28 +369.76% +073.38% +139.63% +471.50% +131.16% +234.72%
    10/29 +109.18% -005.07% -041.87% -118.69% -113.26% -134.50%
    10/30 +112.23% +204.63% +240.07% +375.86% +237.26% +118.17%
    10/31 -050.79% +219.06% +026.10% +048.63% +071.04% -388.65%

    Rolling 5-day ORIGINAL inflection point calculation aggregate change:
    ******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
    10/22 5 Day -1035.24 -0541.11 -1718.66 -1352.29 -2900.10 -3529.21
    10/23 5 Day -1602.08 -1185.42 -2245.36 -2307.14 -3417.33 -4087.08
    10/24 5 Day -0154.48 -1026.30 -1594.03 -1618.24 -2660.94 -3310.56
    10/25 5 Day -0842.45 -1577.03 -1786.25 -1797.87 -2842.84 -3911.46
    10/28 5 Day -0103.84 -0657.81 -1151.73 -0842.01 -2554.65 -3659.95
    10/29 5 Day +0822.83 -0212.40 +0123.33 -0112.68 -1639.60 -2756.76
    10/30 5 Day +1727.71 +0125.63 +0331.39 +0390.42 -0689.47 -1456.01
    10/31 5 Day +1338.92 +1184.44 +0381.87 +0644.11 -0353.30 -2042.13

    Average change/day, 5 days
    ____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
    10/22 -305.87 -174.50 -338.02 -032.00 -214.61 -384.41
    10/23 -403.75 -392.00 -510.70 -349.71 -354.07 -486.49
    10/24 +143.47 -217.18 -196.52 -081.82 +012.46 -078.78
    10/25 -021.58 -383.30 -190.19 -181.23 -047.30 -273.40
    10/28 +090.03 -165.78 -005.78 +031.71 +021.60 -143.01
    10/29 +371.61 +065.74 +368.40 +247.92 +252.10 +154.49
    10/30 +665.96 +262.21 +515.35 +539.51 +545.57 +526.21
    10/31 +298.68 +442.15 +395.18 +452.47 +461.53 +253.69

    Rolling 5-day NEWER inflection point calculation aggregate change:
    ******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
    10/22 +5 Day -0204.35 -0130.97 -0318.33 -0411.14 -0933.51 -1593.78
    10/23 5 Day -0298.38 -0254.47 -0417.01 -0555.85 -1012.09 -1652.06
    10/24 5 Day -0050.12 -0196.75 -0258.57 -0279.26 -0491.75 -0796.97
    10/25 5 Day -0205.07 -0399.74 -0499.63 -0654.93 -1121.68 -1951.60
    10/28 5 Day -0070.25 -0212.85 -0319.33 -0359.97 -0815.95 -1493.43
    10/29 5 Day +0013.04 -0223.56 -0276.36 -0464.11 -1016.77 -1900.54
    10/30 5 Day +0162.99 -0157.59 -0274.29 -0409.73 -0897.81 -1596.32
    10/31 5 Day +0176.92 +0112.34 -0078.60 -0062.08 -0296.28 -0957.87

    Average change/day, 5 days
    ____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
    10/22 -0085.84 -0085.19 -0162.77 -0264.92 -0533.34 -0978.95
    10/23 -0101.01 -0120.67 -0193.46 -0318.42 -0574.92 -1019.11
    10/24 +0012.97 -0044.23 -0049.81 -0057.72 -0069.36 -0152.78
    10/25 -0007.70 -0066.19 -0036.44 -0015.26 +0054.34 +0053.13
    10/28 +0020.78 -0017.62 +0014.44 +0056.68 +0125.60 +0177.84
    10/29 +0043.48 -0018.52 +0008.39 -0010.59 -0016.65 -0061.35
    10/30 +0092.28 +0019.37 +0028.54 +0029.22 +0022.86 +0011.15
    10/31 +0045.41 +0061.82 +0035.99 +0043.43 +0039.09 -0032.18

    2013 Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
    Mon. 01/07: 45.09% 77.18% 52.53% 36.35% 52.72%
    Mon. 01/14: 27.99% 0.70% 48.48% 11.09% 11.21%
    Tue. 01/22: 00.26% 23.79% 12.89% 8.36%
    Mon. 01/28: 69.26% 42.03% 7.96% 0.00% 28.33%
    Mon. 02/04: 17.36% 28.73% 18.53% 12.68% 39.65%
    Mon. 02/11: 25.67% 5.99% 16.57% 17.04% 8.23%
    Tue. 02/19: 19.57% 19.88% 10.17% 30.54%
    Mon. 02/25: 2.88% 55.65% 28.57% 6.95% 0.28%
    Mon. 03/04: 100.79% 18.46% 11.55% 21.97% 3.61%
    Mon. 03/11: 25.81% 9.64% 1.35% 13.40% 0.00%
    Mon. 03/18: 7.10% 5.65% 9.26% 25.15% 9.02%
    Mon. 03/25: 1.47% 14.69% 4.15% 25.64%
    Mon. 04/01: 4.74% 11.82% 19.85% 3.42% 0.59%
    Mon. 04/08: 8.01% 9.51% 13.54% 0.00% 6.62%
    Mon. 04/15: 2.68% 8.94% 5.64% 1.67% 18.45%
    Mon. 04/22: 0.42% 4.90% 690.95% 39.86% 22.22%
    Mon. 04/29: 5.98% 14.04% 17.33% 13.58% 150.50%
    Mon. 05/06: 9.96% 9.15% 114.65% 53.10% 39.36%
    Mon. 05/13: 33.94% 54.27% 29.90% 61.57% 104.44%
    Mon. 05/20: 92.10% 132.60% 34.23% 55.97%
    Tue. 05/28: 76.82% 109.81% 28.64% 150.02%
    Mon. 06/03: 62.23% 62.24% 44.26% 98.99% 27.30%
    Mon. 06/10: 26.26% 40.92% 28.42% 82.06% 81.55%
    Mon. 06/17: 49.37% 57.96% 18.60% 26.64% 25.50%
    Mon. 06/24: 43.95% 23.12% 22.40% 46.88% 15.07%
    Mon. 07/01: 61.06% 35.37% 12.65% holiday 16.46%
    Mon. 07/08: 67.49% 14.84% 30.80% 11.23% 29.49%
    Mon. 07/15: 35.95% 61.87% 96.37% 16.17% 26.04%
    Mon. 07/22: 41.69% 48.41% 56.32% 48.74% 18.16%
    Mon. 07/29: 122.28% 52.08% 74.77% 74.49% 14.88%
    Mon. 08/05: 39.11% 15.18% 26.37% 48.80% 11.41%
    Mon. 08/12: 55.46% 42.24% 5.87% 43.65% 24.39%
    Mon. 08/19: 46.64% 27.52% 2.56% 13.12% 17.70%
    Mon. 08/26: 37.98% 7.04% 14.39% 23.85% 12.50%
    Tue. 09/03: 9.29% 34.87% 3.29% 6.14%
    Mon. 09/09: 16.71% 16.28% 26.78% 37.54% 20.75%
    Mon. 09/16: 13.75% 19.05% 6.49% 13.42% 0.00%
    Mon. 09/23: 13.81% 8.28% 30.17% 16.94% 8.34%
    Mon. 09:30: 24.17% 6.41% 6.91% 17.84% 19.68%
    Mon. 10/07: 17.11% 8.60% 5.98% 61.69% 53.13%
    Mon. 10/14: 45.42% 62.53% 67.90% 30.41% 73.99%
    Mon. 10/21: 48.19% 47.09% 32.37% 38.06% 32.08%
    Mon. 10/28: 37.81% 82.02% 21.45% 10.13%

    === 2012 ===
    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%

    Sometime in August I began stating that I thought the larger sellers might be getting exhausted.

    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 56.67%, min: 3.01%, max: 252.39%
    Oct Avg: 85.05%, min: 11.45%, max: 565.73%
    Nov Avg: 51.96%, min: 3.53%, max: 259.67%
    Dec Avg: 38.72%, min: 1.54%, max: 258.33%

    ============ 2013 ===============
    Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 00.00%, max: 262.58%
    Feb Avg: 20.90%, min: 02.88%, max: 055.65%
    Mar Avg: 15.42%, min: 00.00%, max: 100.79%
    Apr Avg: 40.63%, min: 00.00%, max: 690.95%
    May Avg: 67.58%, min: 09.15%, max: 150.50%
    Jun Avg: 47.48%, min: 15.07%, max: 098.99%
    Jul Avg: 44.47%, min: 11.23%, max: 122.28%
    Aug Avg: 30.24%, min: 02.56%, max: 086.11%
    Sep Avg: 16.30%, min: 00.00%, max: 037.54%
    Oct Avg: 35.95%, min: 05.98%, max: 082.02%

    1031 Vol 0608756, Sht 0047977 07.88% LHC 0.1200 0.1300 0.1201 b:s 1:3.65[95]
    1030 Vol 0673218, Sht 0109287 16.23% LHC 0.1205 0.1251 0.1211 b:s 1:3.25
    1029 Vol 0542552, Sht 0184438 33.99% LHC 0.1233 0.1300 0.1250 b:s 1.34:1
    1028 Vol 0564849, Sht 0136699 24.20% LHC 0.1230 0.1315 0.1251 b:s 1:1.78
    1025 Vol 1175537, Sht 0266692 22.69% LHC 0.1220 0.1329 0.1231 b:s 1:2.54
    1024 Vol 0980046, Sht 0277600 28.33% LHC 0.1280 0.1300 0.1290 b:s 1:2.91
    1023 Vol 2093489, Sht 0459040 21.93% LHC 0.1280 0.1375 0.1285 b:s 1:2.16[94]
    1022 Vol 2873365, Sht 0825575 28.73% LHC 0.1295 0.1385 0.1352 b:s 1:1.52[93]
    1021 Vol 2444176, Sht 0760929 31.13% LHC 0.1237 0.1348 0.1275 b:s 1:1.86
    1018 Vol 1476191, Sht 0553173 37.47% LHC 0.1230 0.1360 0.1241 b:s 1:1.07
    1017 Vol 3092833, Sht 0616357 19.93% LHC 0.1200 0.1299 0.1218 b:s 1:1.98[92]
    1016 Vol 2978470, Sht 1063555 35.71% LHC 0.1222 0.1349 0.1290 b:s 1:1.21[91]
    1015 Vol 4122321, Sht 1390478 33.73% LHC 0.1000 0.1320 0.1270 b:s 1:1.18
    1014 Vol 2083880, Sht 0601501 28.86% LHC 0.1150 0.1350 0.1151 b:s 1:1.75[90]
    1011 Vol 2317847, Sht 0681882 29.42% LHC 0.1200 0.1300 0.1200 b:s 1:1.28
    1010 Vol 2649600, Sht 0838193 31.63% LHC 0.1000 0.1260 0.1153 b:s 1:1.06[89]
    1009 Vol 0505800, Sht 0025310 05.00% LHC 0.1002 0.1075 0.1031 b:s 1:5.12
    1008 Vol 0927512, Sht 0064165 06.92% LHC 0.1000 0.1193 0.1079 b:s 1:4.36
    1007 Vol 0557660, Sht 0166600 11.94% LHC 0.1130 0.1173 0.1131 b:s 1:2.31
    1004 Vol 0643987, Sht 0100787 15.65% LHC 0.1150 0.1175 0.1151 b:s 1:3.89
    1003 Vol 1238821, Sht 0149800 12.09% LHC 0.1150 0.1217 0.1151 b:s 1:2.11
    1002 Vol 0619474, Sht 0038312 06.18% LHC 0.1200 0.1205 0.1200 b:s 1:8.58
    1001 Vol 1307672, Sht 0075394 05.77% LHC 0.1200 0.1228 0.1200 b:s 1:8.33[88]
    0930 Vol 0585803, Sht 0097900 16.71% LHC 0.1200 0.1270 0.1220 b:s 1:2.24
    0927 Vol 0428346, Sht 0031800 07.42% LHC 0.1200 0.1260 0.1201 b:s 1:8.11
    0925 Vol 0535930, Sht 0092500 17.26% LHC 0.1200 0.1250 0.1211 b:s 1:1.64
    0924 Vol 1314622, Sht 0084490 06.43% LHC 0.1190 0.1235 0.1200 b:s 1:3.46
    0919 Vol 0842050, Sht 0077500 09.20% LHC 0.1241 0.1270 0.1250 b:s 1:2.22
    0918 Vol 0695935, Sht 0033000 04.74% LHC 0.1250 0.1269 0.1255 b:s 1:2.71
    0917 Vol 0437262, Sht 0053514 12.24% LHC 0.1251 0.1290 0.1251 b:s 1:1.80
    0916 Vol 0590260, Sht 0057010 09.66% LHC 0.1251 0.1330 0.1251 b:s 1:2.36
    0913 Vol 0605493, Sht 0065375 10.80% LHC 0.1255 0.1318 0.1281 b:s 1:1.09
    0912 Vol 0711600, Sht 0169200 23.78% LHC 0.1251 0.1348 0.1251 b:s 1:1.73
    0911 Vol 1043283, Sht 0182950 17.54% LHC 0.1255 0.3128 0.1255 b:s 1:2.07
    0910 Vol 1250920, Sht 0139949 11.19% LHC 0.1290 0.1385 0.1291 b:s 1:2.20[87]
    0909 Vol 0537787, Sht 0076725 14.27% LHC 0.1305 0.1350 0.1310 b:s 1:4.70[86]
    0906 Vol 0726300, Sht 0037100 05.11% LHC 0.1300 0.1390 0.1305 b:s 1:4.96
    0905 Vol 0240810, Sht 0007000 02.91% LHC 0.1305 0.1348 0.1305 b:s 1:7.67
    0904 Vol 0260078, Sht 0060471 23.25% LHC 0.1300 0.1340 0.1310 b:s 1:2.05
    0903 Vol 0852891, Sht 0055000 06.45% LHC 0.1300 0.1370 0.1300 b:s 1:2.27
    0830 Vol 0669393, Sht 0055450 08.28% LHC 0.1300 0.1394 0.1311 b:s 1:2.08
    0829 Vol 0506358, Sht 0076599 15.13% LHC 0.1325 0.1390 0.1365 b:s 1:1.78
    0828 Vol 0134967, Sht 0011000 08.15% LHC 0.1287 0.1384 0.1350 b:s 1:1.31
    0827 Vol 0443365, Sht 0027366 06.17% LHC 0.1287 0.1351 0.1300 b:s 1:7.11
    0826 Vol 0520755, Sht 0127656 24.51% LHC 0.1287 0.1390 0.1320 b:s 1:1.73[85]
    0823 Vol 0281025, Sht 0035792 12.74% LHC 0.1300 0.1389 0.1369 b:s 1:2.57
    0822 Vol 2029326, Sht 0180939 08.92% LHC 0.1270 0.1490 0.1290 b:s 1:2.22
    0821 Vol 0928882, Sht 0018500 01.99% LHC 0.1410 0.1650 0.1420 b:s 1:3.49[84]
    0820 Vol 1775552, Sht 0280101 15.78% LHC 0.1411 0.1648 0.1560 b:s 1:1.36
    0819 Vol 1503311, Sht 0347971 23.15% LHC 0.1360 0.1525 0.1480 b:s 1:1.12[83]
    0816 Vol 2028694, Sht 0318700 15.71% LHC 0.1310 0.1400 0.1369 b:s 1:1.91
    0815 Vol 2802676, Sht 0705871 25.19% LHC 0.1250 0.1409 0.1320 b:s 1:1.37
    0814 Vol 0702343, Sht 0032525 04.63% LHC 0.1329 0.1450 0.1350 b:s 1:3.51[82]
    0813 Vol 0776232, Sht 0199158 25.66% LHC 0.1380 0.1523 0.1405 b:s 1:1.60[81]
    0812 Vol 0600319, Sht 0174292 29.03% LHC 0.1355 0.1490 0.1390 b:s 1:1.10
    0809 Vol 0468800, Sht 0040400 08.62% LHC 0.1391 0.1489 0.1450 b:s 1:3.08
    0808 Vol 0613185, Sht 0188020 30.66% LHC 0.1350 0.1415 0.1396 b:s 1:1.73
    0807 Vol 0689668, Sht 0121358 17.60% LHC 0.1400 0.1510 0.1410 b:s 1:2.01
    0806 Vol 1691806, Sht 0176804 10.45% LHC 0.1405 0.1680 0.1475 b:s 1:2.21
    0805 Vol 0425674, Sht 0105969 24.89% LHC 0.1650 0.1711 0.1670 b:s 1:1.89[80]
    0802 Vol 0263290, Sht 0033200 12.61% LHC 0.1700 0.1800 0.1711 b:s 1:5.55
    0801 Vol 0551180, Sht 0238330 43.24% LHC 0.1700 0.1800 0.1750 b:s 1:1.33[79]

    [79] There was a 14.9K AH trade at $0.1750. FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include out-of-hours trades. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 551,180 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 43.24% to 42.10%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 238,330 to 253,230 and the short percentage would be 44.73%.
    [80] There was a 5K AH trade FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 420,674 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 25.19% to my 24.89%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 105,969 to 110,969 and the short percentage would be 26.07%.
    [81] There was a 3K AH trade FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 773,232 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 25.76% to my 25.66%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 199,158 to 202,158 and the short percentage would be 26.04%.
    [82] There was a 10K AH trade FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 702,343 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 5.97% to my 04.57%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 35,525 to 42,525 and the short percentage would be 05.97%.
    [83] There was a 4K AH trade FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,503,311 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 23.15% to my 23.09%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 347,971 to 351,971 and the short percentage would be 23.35%.
    [84] There was a 5K pre-market trade FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 923,882 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 2% to my 1.99%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 18,500 to 23,500 and the short percentage would be 2.53%.
    [85] There was a 10K pre-market trade FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 520,755 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 24.51% to my 24.05%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 127,656 to 137,656 and the short percentage would be 25.94%.
    [86] There were two AH trades totaling 19K FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 537,787 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 14.72% to my 13.78%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 76,725 to 95,725 and the short percentage would be 17.19%.
    [87] There was one AH trade of 19K that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,250,920 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 11.19% to my 11.10%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 139,949 to 150,047 and the short percentage would be 11.90%.
    [88]There was one pre-market trade of 10K that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,307,672 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 5.77% to my 5.72%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 75,394 to 85,394 and the short percentage would be 6.48%.
    [89] There was one after-market trade of 51K that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 2,649,600 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 31.63% to my 31.58%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 838,193 to 843,193 and the short percentage would be 31.76%.
    [90] There was one after-market trade of 5K that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 2,083,880 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 28.86% to my 28.80%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 601,501 to 606,501 and the short percentage would be 29.03%.
    [91] There was one pre-market trade of 5K that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 2,978,470 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 35.71% to my 35.65%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 1,063,555 to 1,068,555 and the short percentage would be 35.82%.
    [92] There was one pre-market trade of 5K that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 3,092,833 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 19.93% to my 19.90%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 616,537 to 621,357 and the short percentage would be 20.06%.
    [93] There were four pre-market trades totaling 45K that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 2,873,365 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 28.73% to my 28.29%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 825,575 to 870,575 and the short percentage would be 29.83%.
    [94] There was one pre-market trade of 10K that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 2,093,489 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 21.93% to my 21.82%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 459,040 to 469,040 and the short percentage would be 22.30%.
    [95] There was one AH trade of 5K that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 608,756 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 7.88% to my 7.82%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 47,977 to 52,977 and the short percentage would be 8.63%.

    10/30/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 74, MinTrSz: 1000, MaxTrSz: 60000, Vol: 673218, AvTrSz: 9098
    Min. Pr: 0.1205, Max Pr: 0.1251, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1232
    # Buys, Shares: 16 156685, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1240
    # Sells, Shares: 57 509533, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1230
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 7000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1235
    Buy:Sell 1:3.25 (23.3% "buys"), DlyShts 109287 (16.23%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 21.45%

    Well, something different AGAIN today. I suspected a bad move in the cards, as I commented at 9:25 EDT this morning. I have to confess though that I was "prepped" for this because of what I mentioned in this comment last evening. And because the buy percentage was so high yesterday, when I thought it had no logical reason to be so high, I was predisposed to looking for weakness today anyway.

    Yesterday I said "I began to suspect the short sales would be up as I watched the buy:sell develop strongly to the buy side today. This has been the pattern when volume is relatively low and there's a lot more hitting the offers than the bids". Today, I suspected the opposite for the inverse reason. We ended with trade volume up 24.08% and daily short sales down -40.75%, moving daily short percentage to 16.23%.

    Although we ended at a weak buy percentage, it could've been worse. I was doing my usual watching and saw buy percentage of 14.30% (meaning potentially 85.70% "sells") at 11:44 EDT. This was on 229,793 shares traded (which ended up being 34.13% of day's volume). Just as a very strong buy percentage suggests a high daily short sale percentage, a very weak percentage suggests the opposite.

    BTW, this holds only for our current environment. In other stocks I watch, which are not in extraordinary situations, I have not (yet?) noticed such trends.

    ARCA appeared at 10:30 today and in six minutes trading dropped from $0.124 to $0.1230. As I had mentioned in my comment, offers had held fairly steady, even though ATDF was in from the start, staying in the range of $0.1250 to $0.1240. ARCA immediately took it $0.1235. By 11:27, ARCA had exited stage left and offers rose to the ~$0.1250 area again. ARCA did not return until ~14:50 and we saw offers get as high as $0.1265 at 14:42. At 14:50, when ARCA returned, $0.1235 again. Recall that my assessment has been that a lot (most?) ARCA trading seems to me to be PIPEr-related and they don't really care what price they get. By 15:42 ARCA had driven offers down to $0.1222.

    One thing to keep in mind is that most trades normally go off below whatever the best offer is as the predominate action is to hit the bid. Today they were hit hard enough that several levels of price on the bid side were exhausted. As the bids got lower, the asks were adjusted too.

    Yesterday I wondered if JP's thought that the PIPErs might be out of shares for now could be the cause, because of the behavior change yesterday. And my TFH suggested that we are just before some more shares being issued and they knew they had $0.1018 locked in. So their best strategy here was to keep price up, draw in buyers and have a better price when they start the next dump cycle.

    I can't say if my TFH was correct, but either JP's thought was not on the mark or the PIPErs started shorting in anticipation of shares coming at <= $0.1018. Since the daily short sales were down 24.08% from yesterday, I suspect this was not the case. I would expect the short sales to be up and the resulting percent of daily volume to be higher.

    Yesterday I said "The trend down in price might seem to have stalled, but I'll remind that we are seeing lower highs and that is the trend since 10/22. The continued fall in trade volume and the daily short volume general trend continues to suggest we are not headed up ATM". It looks like the drop below the 50-day SMA I've been expecting (a few days early) and the trend down (I expected way too early) is resuming. The 50-day SMA is $0.1249 today and we traded almost exclusively below it today.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    10/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018
    10/29: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018
    10/30: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1197, x 85%: $0.1017

    Vol, in K, for above days: 564.85, 542.55, 673.22.

    We broke our string of nine consecutive days of an 85% price of $0.1018 now.

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. 10/10 was the first big volume day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.

    10/09 $0.1039 -04.92% 16.3%
    10/10 $0.1106 +06.54% 48.2%
    10/11 $0.1246 +12.58% 43.1%
    10/14 $0.1258 +00.97% 36.3%
    10/15 $0.1269 +00.86% 45.6%
    10/16 $0.1277 +00.70% 43.5%
    10/17 $0.1237 -03.16% 33.1%
    10/18 $0.1286 +03.97% 47.3%
    10/21 $0.1283 -00.23% 34.7%
    10/22 $0.1334 +02.74% 39.6%
    10/23 $0.1322 -00.72% 31.1%
    10/24 $0.1285 -02.80% 25.1%
    10/25 $0.1254 -02.37% 27.8%
    10/28 $0.1267 +01.00% 36.0%
    10/29 $0.1274 +00.54% 55.6%
    10/30 $0.1232 -03.25% 23.3%

    Here's an arbitrary trading breakdown by price for today.
    $0.1205-$0.1225: 116200 shrs, 17.26% of vol, VWAP $0.1218, b:s 1:1.47, 40.4% buys
    $0.1226-$0.1240: 443030 shrs, 65.81% of vol, VWAP $0.1231, b:s 1:20.08, 4.7% buys
    $0.1249-$0.1251: 113988 shrs, 16.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1250, b:s 3.56:1, 78.1% buys

    Here's an arbitrary breakdown by time.
    09:30-09:47: 031200 shrs, 04.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1241, 67.3% buys
    10:03-10:26: 039243 shrs, 05.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1235, 0.0% buys
    10:26-10:47: 045850 shrs, 06.81% of vol, VWAP $0.1231, 8.4% buys
    11:18-11:28: 091000 shrs, 13.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1231, 8.8% buys
    11:36-11:52: 030500 shrs, 04.53% of vol, VWAP $0.1233, 16.4% buys
    13:22-13:30: 009000 shrs, 01.34% of vol, VWAP $0.1232, 0.0% buys
    14:12-14:50: 220588 shrs, 32.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1239, 28.6% buys
    15:01-15:24: 082337 shrs, 12.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1232, 5.9% buys
    15:33-15:55: 126500 shrs, 18.79% of vol, VWAP $0.1219, 40.3% buys

    Today's buying was unable to support the buy percentage averages.

    Average trade size was large today today. I believe this was an effect of the falling price hitting some orders down here that had been hanging around for a while and the sellers (predominately ARCA?) taking advantage of these (GTC?) orders' presence to dump larger blocks than they normally can.

    On the traditional TA front, as seen the last few days, the oscillators I watch are still weakening. Even MFI finally capitulated. Today stochastic went deeper into oversold. As I mentioned yesterday "generally on entry to this condition a sign that price will weaken further".

    We are now trading below the 50-day SMA, $0.1249.

    Yesterday I reminded "The price is still slightly above the mid-point of the Bollinger band. Yesterday I suggested it should take a couple more days to get there. That still looks to be the case".

    We got the Bollinger band mid-point today, $0.1210, with our $0.1211 close.

    My original inflection point calculations, which I remind I considered "flaky", are still reflecting the improved buy:sell from yesterday. Only the 25 and 50-day calculations are showing any common sense. In their defense, I should note that I have always looked for specific coordinated movement patterns in them as a signal. Everything else was "maybe", "possibly suggesting", ... etc.

    My newer version has only the 5-day calculation showing nonsense. Recently I've been considering dropping it or modifying it as it seems too sensitive in some cases and insensitive in other cases. Anyway all the other periods are suggesting price moving down near-term, as they should.

    They moved far enough I had to redraw the trend lines.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.

    10/29/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 96, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol: 542552, AvTrSz: 5652
    Min. Pr: 0.1233, Max Pr: 0.1300, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1274
    # Buys, Shares: 61 301680, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1283
    # Sells, Shares: 33 224872, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1262
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 16000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1267
    Buy:Sell 1.34:1 (55.6% "buys"), DlyShts 184438 (33.99%)

    Well, something different today. The decrease in volume and daily short sales faltered. Today's trade volume was down -3.95% but daily short volume was up 34.92%. The daily short percentage readings from 10/18 onward are 37.47%, 31.13%, 28.29%, 21.82%, 27.81%, 22.69%, 24.2% and 0.3399 today.

    I began to suspect the short sales would be up as I watched the buy:sell develop strongly to the buy side today. This has been the pattern when volume is relatively low and there's a lot more hitting the offers than the bids.

    ARCA acted differently today. After coming on-board at 10:55 or so, they didn't immediately start trying to always be at the front of the offers queue. For a long period they let BTIG, NITE, CDEL and ATDF take those positions. The most aggressive they got, up until 12:25, was to share top billing. From 12:25 to just before 15:27 the pretty much dominated. But they never got real aggressive with pushing the offer lower.

    I wonder if JP's thought that the PIPErs might be out of shares for now could be the cause in this behavior change. My TFH suggests that we are just before some more shares being issued and they know they have $0.1018 locked in. So their best strategy here would be to keep price up, draw in buyers and have a better price when they start the next dump cycle. We'll never know.

    The daily short sales are breaking the pattern ATM. I don't know if this is a longer-term change in trend, a temporary condition resulting from what JP suggested might be the case or a natural result after seeing the high trading volume recently combined with some mechanics of the MMs.

    The trend down in price might seem to have stalled, but I'll remind that we are seeing lower highs and that is the trend since 10/22. The continued fall in trade volume and the daily short volume general trend continues to suggest we are not headed up ATM.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    10/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018
    10/29: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018

    Vol, in K, for above days: 564.85, 542.55.

    We have nine consecutive days of an 85% price of $0.1018 now.

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. 10/10 was the first big volume day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.

    10/09 $0.1039 -04.92% 16.3%
    10/10 $0.1106 +06.54% 48.2%
    10/11 $0.1246 +12.58% 43.1%
    10/14 $0.1258 +00.97% 36.3%
    10/15 $0.1269 +00.86% 45.6%
    10/16 $0.1277 +00.70% 43.5%
    10/17 $0.1237 -03.16% 33.1%
    10/18 $0.1286 +03.97% 47.3%
    10/21 $0.1283 -00.23% 34.7%
    10/22 $0.1334 +02.74% 39.6%
    10/23 $0.1322 -00.72% 31.1%
    10/24 $0.1285 -02.80% 25.1%
    10/25 $0.1254 -02.37% 27.8%
    10/28 $0.1267 +01.00% 36.0%
    10/29 $0.1274 +00.54% 55.6%

    Here's an arbitrary trading breakdown by price for today.
    $0.1233-$0.1240: 030000 shrs, 05.53% of vol, VWAP $0.1236, b:s 0.0% buys
    $0.1250-$0.1252: 123100 shrs, 22.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1250, b:s 1:1.69, 34.1% buys
    $0.1260-$0.1265: 064072 shrs, 11.81% of vol, VWAP $0.1262, b:s 1:2.37, 29.7% buys
    $0.1270-$0.1279: 065700 shrs, 12.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1275, b:s 1.89:1, 65.4% buys
    $0.1280-$0.1285: 081300 shrs, 14.98% of vol, VWAP $0.1281, b:s 1.71:1, 63.1% buys
    $0.1290-$0.1299: 119842 shrs, 22.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1294, b:s 3.38:1, 73.3% buys
    $0.1300-$0.1300: 058538 shrs, 10.79% of vol, VWAP $0.1300, 100% buys

    Here's an arbitrary breakdown by time. Late-day weakness continues to be the rule it seems. The trading was so sporadic and bunched that it's almost not worth showing, but for the fact that you can tell right where ARCA showed up during the day - 13:50. It disappeared for a while around 14:00 and reappeared around 14:58 and remained active for the rest of the day. In this latter period ATDF and BTIG were the prime rivals to ARCA.
    09:30-09:53: 005900 shrs, 01.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1279, 71.2% buys
    10:04-10:30: 043200 shrs, 07.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1292, 85.0% buys
    10:31-10:55: 090538 shrs, 16.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1297, 78.5% buys
    11:04-11:27: 069342 shrs, 12.78% of vol, VWAP $0.1291, 62.5% buys
    11:36-11:58: 037800 shrs, 06.97% of vol, VWAP $0.1278, 47.1% buys
    12:00-12:25: 029200 shrs, 05.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1275, 74.0% buys
    12:33-12:59: 036000 shrs, 06.64% of vol, VWAP $0.1274, 58.3% buys
    13:26-13:58: 083472 shrs, 15.39% of vol, VWAP $0.1264, 30.0% buys
    14:05-14:18: 011000 shrs, 02.03% of vol, VWAP $0.1260, 100.0% buys
    14:41-14:54: 076000 shrs, 14.01% of vol, VWAP $0.1245, 14.5% buys
    15:17-15:27: 050100 shrs, 09.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1250, 57.9% buys
    15:41-15:59: 010000 shrs, 01.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1262, 100.0% buys

    Today's buying was able to support the buy percentage averages.

    Average trade size stabilized today.

    On the traditional TA front, as with yesterday, the oscillators I watch are still weakening, except MFI which again made a small up-tick. Today stochastic entered oversold, generally on entry to this condition a sign that price will weaken further, and ADX related are getting to very low values. RSI is absolutely neutral for the second consecutive day.

    We are still trading around the 50-day SMA. 50-day SMA now $0.1256, down from yesterday's $0.126.

    The price is still slightly above the mid-point of the Bollinger-band. Yesterday I suggested it should take a couple more days to get there. That still looks to be the case.

    My original inflection point calculations are reflecting the flat action and (temporarily?) improved buy:sell. They have stopped the weakening for now and are showing reducing weakening. They are by no means suggesting an up trend developing yet.

    My newer versions are saying the same here.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.

    10/28/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 104, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol: 564849, AvTrSz: 5431
    Min. Pr: 0.1230, Max Pr: 0.1315, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1267
    # Buys, Shares: 46 203299, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1275
    # Sells, Shares: 58 361550, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1262
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.78 (36.0% "buys"), DlyShts 136699 (24.2%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 37.81%

    The decrease in volume and daily short sales continues. Today's trade volume was down -51.95% and daily short volume was down -48.74%. The daily short percentage readings from 10/18 onward are 37.47%, 31.13%, 28.29%, 21.82%, 27.81%, 22.69% and 24.2% today.

    With the trend down now seemingly underway, the continued fall in trade volume and in daily short volume is on track.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    10/28: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018

    Vol, in K, for above days: 564.85.

    We have eight consecutive days of an 85% price of $0.1018 now. Yesterday I noted looking at decimal places not shown here, the $0.1018xx is slowly weakening. Today's slightly improved VWAP will help hold the current level because it is high enough to not knock a higher price out of the 20-day window. Our magic number tomorrow is $0.1256 VWAP.

    BTW, I want to thank ARCA for taking the first part of the day off and allowing some improvement in the VWAP. They came in so late that the usual effect seen when they're in all day wasn't nearly as pronounced as usual.

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. 10/10 was the first big volume day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.

    10/09 $0.1039 -04.92% 16.3%
    10/10 $0.1106 +06.54% 48.2%
    10/11 $0.1246 +12.58% 43.1%
    10/14 $0.1258 +00.97% 36.3%
    10/15 $0.1269 +00.86% 45.6%
    10/16 $0.1277 +00.70% 43.5%
    10/17 $0.1237 -03.16% 33.1%
    10/18 $0.1286 +03.97% 47.3%
    10/21 $0.1283 -00.23% 34.7%
    10/22 $0.1334 +02.74% 39.6%
    10/23 $0.1322 -00.72% 31.1%
    10/24 $0.1285 -02.80% 25.1%
    10/25 $0.1254 -02.37% 27.8%
    10/28 $0.1267 +01.00% 36.0%

    Here's an arbitrary trading breakdown by price for today. Notice where the volume is at.
    $0.1230-$0.1250: 043800 shrs, 07.75% of vol, VWAP $0.1250, b:s 0.0% buys
    $0.1251-$0.1270: 337650 shrs, 59.78% of vol, VWAP $0.1257, b:s 1:2.15, 31.7% buys
    $0.1275-$0.1298: 136900 shrs, 24.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1282, b:s 1.25:1, 55.6% buys
    $0.1300-$0.1315: 046499 shrs, 08.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1304, b:s 1:1.33, 43.0% buys

    Here's an arbitrary breakdown by time. Late-day weakness continues to be the rule it seems. The trading was so sporadic and bunched that it's almost not worth showing, but for the fact that you can tell right where ARCA showed up during the day - 13:50. It disappeared for a while around 14:00 and reappeared around 14:58 and remained active for the rest of the day. In this latter period ATDF and BTIG were the prime rivals to ARCA.
    09:30-09:59: 011200 shrs, 01.98% of vol, VWAP $0.1253, 44.6% buys
    10:14-10:28: 035100 shrs, 06.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1255, 59.8% buys
    10:31-10:43: 021800 shrs, 03.86% of vol, VWAP $0.1271, 45.9% buys
    10:43-11:26: 059199 shrs, 10.48% of vol, VWAP $0.1297, 33.8% buys
    11:51-11:57: 007000 shrs, 01.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1284, 100.0% buys
    12:01-12:24: 021300 shrs, 03.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1278, 23.9% buys
    12:40-12:45: 013800 shrs, 02.44% of vol, VWAP $0.1287, 73.9% buys
    13:04-13:26: 010000 shrs, 01.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1291, 100.0% buys
    13:40-14:00: 061350 shrs, 10.86% of vol, VWAP $0.1265, 31.0% buys
    14:04-14:20: 052100 shrs, 09.22% of vol, VWAP $0.1270, 36.5% buys
    14:48-14:50: 009000 shrs, 01.59% of vol, VWAP $0.1288, 100.0% buys
    15:12-15:30: 032700 shrs, 05.79% of vol, VWAP $0.1272, 15.3% buys
    15:32-15:44: 161300 shrs, 28.56% of vol, VWAP $0.1256, 17.2% buys
    15:46-15:59: 066000 shrs, 11.68% of vol, VWAP $0.1253, 0.0% buys

    The 100-day average buy percentage is beginning to fall while the three shorter-term averages are starting to deteriorate now.

    Average trade size continues to fall and adds another factor suggesting the trend is down.

    On the traditional TA front the oscillators I watch are still weakening, except MFI which made a small up-tick.

    I've been talking bout the action around the 50-day SMA. We are still trading around it now, going longer than the reference I've been using, but I don't know how much of this was either a Monday optimism, an ARCA slacking off, something else, or just a normal variation in duration as little repeats perfectly. 50-day SMA now is $0.126.

    We had price start to move to the Bollinger-band mid-point now. It should take a couple more days to get there.

    I still suspect that we could (was "will") shoot right by this level.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are are in the latest daily post above.

    10/25/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 141, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol: 1175537, AvTrSz: 8337
    Min. Pr: 0.1220, Max Pr: 0.1329, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1254
    # Buys, Shares: 49 327191, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1266
    # Sells, Shares: 89 831346, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1249
    # Unkn, Shares: 3 17000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1260
    Buy:Sell 1:2.54 (27.8% "buys"), DlyShts 266692 (22.69%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 0.00%

    I've been yammering about daily short sales likely going down to very low levels, taking price and volume with them. Recall I expected a drop in volume and daily short sales a couple days back and yesterday saw volume down -52.55% and daily short volume down -39.53%. The trend may not be confirmed before big news, but it sure looks very likely. Today short volume was down another -3.93% from yesterday while trade volume was up 17.78%. The daily short percentage readings are 37.47%, 31.13%, 28.29%, 21.82%, 27.81% and 22.69% today.

    With the trend down now seemingly underway, the rise in trade volume and decline in daily short volume today fits with (some of) my thinking on the factors affecting behavior of these items.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    10/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018
    10/22: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018
    10/23: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018
    10/24: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018
    10/25: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018

    Vol, in K, for above days: 2,444.18, 2,918.37, 2,103.49, 998.05, 1175.54.

    We have seven days straight of an 85% price of $0.1018 now. As before, we needed VWAP >= $0.1258 to continue this unbroken string. Today we had a VWAP of $0.1254. That pushed one higher VWAP out of the 20-day window. Looking at decimal places not shown here, the $0.1018xx is slowly weakening. We now need to have VWAP >= $0.1256 to hold steady.

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. 10/10 was the first big volume day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.

    10/09 $0.1039 -04.92% 16.3%
    10/10 $0.1106 +06.54% 48.2%
    10/11 $0.1246 +12.58% 43.1%
    10/14 $0.1258 +00.97% 36.3%
    10/15 $0.1269 +00.86% 45.6%
    10/16 $0.1277 +00.70% 43.5%
    10/17 $0.1237 -03.16% 33.1%
    10/18 $0.1286 +03.97% 47.3%
    10/21 $0.1283 -00.23% 34.7%
    10/22 $0.1334 +02.74% 39.6%
    10/23 $0.1322 -00.72% 31.1%
    10/24 $0.1285 -02.80% 25.1%
    10/25 $0.1254 -02.37% 27.8%

    The above seems to confirm what the trade and daily short sales are telling me - trend down seems to now be in place. Also, the price spread behavior could be confirming. From narrowing price spreads, 1.56% yesterday with a lower high and a lower low, we've now spread again to 8.93%, again with a lower high and low. The VWAP is noticeably down two consecutive days along with the buy percentages trending consistently lower now.

    Here's an arbitrary trading breakdown by price for today. Notice where the volume is at.
    $0.1220-$0.1229: 223000 shrs, 18.97% of vol, VWAP $0.1222, b:s 1:7.92, 11.2% buys
    $0.1230-$0.1249: 233699 shrs, 19.88% of vol, VWAP $0.1234, b:s 1:1.72, 36.8% buys
    $0.1250-$0.1274: 535692 shrs, 45.57% of vol, VWAP $0.1262, b:s 1:2.99, 24.3% buys
    $0.1275-$0.1282: 082400 shrs, 07.01% of vol, VWAP $0.1280, b:s 1:5.59, 15.2% buys
    $0.1300-$0.1329: 100746 shrs, 08.57% of vol, VWAP $0.1309, b:s 2.72:1, 73.2% buys

    Here's an arbitrary breakdown by time. Late-day weakness continues to be the rule it seems.
    09:30-09:35: 090746 shrs, 07.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1306, 70.2% buys
    09:38-10:00: 097400 shrs, 08.29% of vol, VWAP $0.1278, 7.7% buys
    10:07-10:55: 097000 shrs, 08.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1258, 10.3% buys
    11:02-11:53: 058100 shrs, 04.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1269, 37.2% buys
    12:08-12:59: 151092 shrs, 12.85% of vol, VWAP $0.1269, 22.8% buys
    13:00-13:41: 148800 shrs, 12.66% of vol, VWAP $0.1261, 46.3% buys
    13:45-14:14: 098699 shrs, 08.40% of vol, VWAP $0.1248, 18.2% buys
    14:15-15:21: 170000 shrs, 14.46% of vol, VWAP $0.1238, 28.2% buys
    15:22-15:58: 263700 shrs, 22.43% of vol, VWAP $0.1223, 20.9% buys

    The 25-day average buy percentage finally made it back into "normal" range. So naturally, as I mentioned yesterday, the other periods have now begun to weaken (10-day again) or remain flat. Since today's percentage is below all those averages, it won't be helping to support them.

    Yesterday had a big drop in average trade size, -37.09% to ~7.4K from ~11.75K, and today recovered slightly. This is probably a normal trait as some folks start getting serious about exiting as they see weakening is beginning. My guess is folks with larger positions, who would see larger losses in absolute terms, that are not wedded to their position for the long haul are among early exits. So I'm guessing they sell larger blocks, on average.

    This may also support the view that the down trend is in place.

    OTOH, folks with a longer view that see little risk at these price levels are likely buying in blocks a bit larger than the longer-term average. I think they will be exhausted before the PIPErs and any other sellers are though.

    I've been saying my various inflection point calculations were "suggesting" weakness. No more. My newer version is flat-out saying "This looks like Wile E. Coyote two steps beyond the lip of the cliff". The original version chart clearly shows an acceleration down beginning. The newer version finished morphing into forecasting weakening yesterday. As posited yesterday, it is now rapidly deteriorating.

    I was so early on this (well, many (most?) pops last a few days and quickly start to re-trace) that it feels like I've been expecting this for a year. At last now I can start watching for the bottom and, hopefully, a trend up.

    But I don't expect it will come really quickly. There's an old thought that says rises are slow and drops are rapid. So I might get surprised again because most of our "drops like a homesick brick" actions have been followed quickly by a bounce. Unfortunately, most to this time have been of the dead cat variety. Maybe some expectation of news will help keep the drop shallower and the bounce stronger this time.

    However ...

    On the traditional TA front all the oscillators I watch continued to weaken. All are now below neutral. The MACD histogram weakened some more and the signal line, which only recently went positive and rolled over is weakening.

    Our top today appears to be right on the rising support seen during the pop. All the day's action, and the close, were below that rising support. If we trade below it again Monday we have confirmation of a break of support.

    I've been talking bout the action around the 50-day SMA. The parallel with the prior instance I've been referencing (5/22-6/6) is spooky. Not only has the longevity matched but even the days' pattern just before the break below (if that occurs Monday) is matching. The pattern includes a very narrow spread after the "peak" in the pattern followed by a wider spread that encompasses the 50-day SMA again and, if it happens, breaks below the next day. Monday 10/28 would be that "next day".

    We had been pushing the upper Bollinger and I suggested a break towards the middle of the range, ~$0.1205 EOD Thursday. The falling VWAP, yesterday $0.1285 from the prior $0.1322, suggested the move had begun. Today the Bollinger mid-point is $0.1230 and our close at $0.1231 is "close enough for government" work. The VWAP needs to drop another couple tenths of a penny to hit it.

    My expectation is still that we could (was "will") shoot right by this level because ...

    In the prior pattern around the 50-day SMA, when price range moved below the 50-day SMA there was a steep four-day drop in price. The reason I changed "will" to "could" is I recalled that this time we are expecting news soon that may buoy the price. I don't know how much effect that may have nor how much downward pressure will be exerted by the PIPErs now. If the traditional TA and my experimental stuff is in the ballpark I think we could see that steep drop, percentage-wise. But with price so low now the nearness of the "basement" may offer some support.

    On the trading action today the offers had the usual suspects, ARCA and ATDF being the most aggressive, who showed up early. At various times BTIG became aggressive as well. TEJS, NITE and CDEL were much less aggressive.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.

    10/24/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 135, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol: 998046, AvTrSz: 7393
    Min. Pr: 0.1280, Max Pr: 0.1300, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1285
    # Buys, Shares: 41 250900, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1288
    # Sells, Shares: 90 729446, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1283
    # Unkn, Shares: 4 17700, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1286
    Buy:Sell 1:2.91 (25.1% "buys"), DlyShts 277600 (27.81%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 38.06%

    I've been expecting daily short sales are heading back towards abnormally low levels and will be taking price and volume with them. As percentage vacillates around the trend, there's still no confirmation yet, but the trend is now smaller swings around a trend down, at least for now: 37.47%, 31.13%, 28.29%, 21.82% and 27.81%. Notice the lower highs and, probably tomorrow, lower lows.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    10/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018
    10/22: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018
    10/23: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018
    10/24: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018

    Vol, in K, for above days: 2,444.18, 2,918.37, 2,103.49, 998.05.

    We have six days straight of an 85% price of $0.1018 now. As before, we need VWAP >= $0.1258 to continue this unbroken string.

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. 10/10 was the first big volume day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.

    10/09 $0.1039 -04.92% 16.3%
    10/10 $0.1106 +06.54% 48.2%
    10/11 $0.1246 +12.58% 43.1%
    10/14 $0.1258 +00.97% 36.3%
    10/15 $0.1269 +00.86% 45.6%
    10/16 $0.1277 +00.70% 43.5%
    10/17 $0.1237 -03.16% 33.1%
    10/18 $0.1286 +03.97% 47.3%
    10/21 $0.1283 -00.23% 34.7%
    10/22 $0.1334 +02.74% 39.6%
    10/23 $0.1322 -00.72% 31.1%
    10/24 $0.1285 -02.80% 25.1%

    Here's an arbitrary trading breakdown by price for today.
    $0.1280-$0.1280: 303700 shares, 30.43% of vol, VWAP $0.1280, b:s , 0.0% buys
    $0.1281-$0.1282: 215500 shares, 21.59% of vol, VWAP $0.1281, b:s , 0.0% buys
    $0.1285-$0.1289: 244646 shares, 24.51% of vol, VWAP $0.1285, b:s 1:1.17, 42.8% buys
    $0.1290-$0.1300: 234200 shares, 23.47% of vol, VWAP $0.1293, b:s 1.66:1, 62.4% buys

    Here's an arbitrary breakdown by time.
    09:30-09:52: 151046 shrs, 15.13% of vol, VWAP $0.1288, 70.4% buys
    09:54-10:41: 165000 shrs, 16.53% of vol, VWAP $0.1281, 0.0% buys
    10:42-12:44: 117100 shrs, 11.73% of vol, VWAP $0.1286, 46.8% buys
    12:45-13:17: 049000 shrs, 04.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1281, 0.0% buys
    13:28-14:22: 202200 shrs, 20.26% of vol, VWAP $0.1282, 15.6% buys
    14:24-15:43: 179700 shrs, 18.01% of vol, VWAP $0.1282, 29.6% buys
    15:43-15:59: 134000 shrs, 13.43% of vol, VWAP $0.1292, 3.7% buys

    I think the trend down I've been expecting (but too early), which I noted yesterday is now active again, has begun. We've a very narrow price spread, 1.56%, with a lower high and a lower low. And as noted above, the VWAP is noticeably down, -2.8%, along with the buy percentages trending now consistently lower. Add in that the daily short sales seem to be trending lower too. That seems to have accompanied (or caused?) weaker prices in the past.

    The 25-day average buy percentage still hasn't made it back into "normal" range and the other periods have now begun to weaken (10-day) or remain flat. As I've repeatedly complained, I never did see the strength in the buy percentage that characterized prior pops.

    Referencing my expected drop in volume and daily short sales in the next day or two, we have volume down -52.55% and daily short volume down -39.53%.

    We had a big drop, -37.09% to ~7.4K from ~11.75K, from the recent very large average trade sizes. This is what I would be expecting if weakening is beginning.

    My original experimental inflection point calculations continue to suggest weakening on the horizon and the newer version has finished morphing into forecasting weakening now. I suggested that when this happened "When they do "see" [then finish the flip to negative], they should break quite rapidly". It now looks like they are accelerating downward

    Combining all the above, I still see negatives near-term.

    On the traditional TA front only the momentum oscillator strengthened again. All others I normally watch either went flat (MFI - barely, RSI, Williams %R and ADX related) or weakened (accumulation & distribution, stochastic.

    This is rational since we again had a lower high, low and volume - a bearish suggestion, as mentioned yesterday. The prior days' topping right at the prior point of support, now resistance, and the level that defined a top on the prior sideways trading before we broke down, seems confirmed to have been controlling.

    We've continued "Breaking Bad" with the VWAP moving near the 50-day SMA, now $0.1264, that I've mentioned. Recall that we have managed to trade around and above it for only short periods before falling below it. Today is the ninth day and the prior occurrence, of more than two days, of this behavior lasted nine days and broke below the 50-day SMA.

    We had been pushing the upper Bollinger and I suggested a break towards the middle of the range, ~$0.1205 EOD Thursday, should be a normal action. The falling VWAP, now $0.1285 from the prior $0.1322, suggests the move has begun.

    My expectation is that we will shoot right by this level.

    On the offers the usual suspects, NITE, BTIG, ARCA and ATDF, showed up early. Their constant competition prevented any real trend up in price. Adjustments and changing of the guard at the top was very frequent.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.

    10/23/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 179, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 75000, Vol: 2103489, AvTrSz: 11751
    Min. Pr: 0.1280, Max Pr: 0.1375, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1322
    # Buys, Shares: 75 655223, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1331
    # Sells, Shares: 103 1418266, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1318
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 30000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1285
    Buy:Sell 1:2.16 (31.1% "buys"), DlyShts 459040 (21.82%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 32.37%

    There was one pre-market trade, at $0.1375 for 10K that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 2,093,489 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 21.93% to my 21.82%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 459,040 to 469,040 and the short percentage would be 22.30%.

    If been harping on daily short sales, expecting they are heading back towards abnormally low levels and taking price and volume with them. No confirmation yet, but the trend is now less vacillation around a trend down, at least for now: 37.47%, 31.13%, 28.29% and 21.82%.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    10/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018
    10/22: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018
    10/23: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018

    Vol, in K, for above days: 2,444.18, 2,918.37, 2,103.49.

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. 10/10 was the first big volume day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.

    10/09 $0.1039 -04.92% 16.3%
    10/10 $0.1106 +06.54% 48.2%
    10/11 $0.1246 +12.58% 43.1%
    10/14 $0.1258 +00.97% 36.3%
    10/15 $0.1269 +00.86% 45.6%
    10/16 $0.1277 +00.70% 43.5%
    10/17 $0.1237 -03.16% 33.1%
    10/18 $0.1286 +03.97% 47.3%
    10/21 $0.1283 -00.23% 34.7%
    10/22 $0.1334 +02.74% 39.6%
    10/23 $0.1322 -00.72% 31.1%

    Here's an arbitrary trading breakdown by price for today.
    $0.1280-$0.1295: 277416 shares, 13.19% of vol, VWAP $0.1286, b:s 1:2.30, 27.0% buys
    $0.1300-$0.1324: 951284 shares, 45.22% of vol, VWAP $0.1310, b:s 1:3.92, 20.3% buys
    $0.1325-$0.1349: 307839 shares, 14.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1327, b:s 2.08:1, 67.5% buys
    $0.1350-$0.1358: 494950 shares, 23.53% of vol, VWAP $0.1353, b:s 1:3.63, 21.6% buys
    $0.1375-$0.1375: 071000 shares, 03.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1375, 100% buys

    Here's an arbitrary breakdown by time.
    09:28-09:58: 591250 shrs, 28.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1355, 32.8% buys
    10:07-10:21: 105700 shrs, 05.02% of vol, VWAP $0.1303, 00.0% buys
    10:31-10:49: 125000 shrs, 05.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1315, 53.6% buys
    11:02-11:19: 106899 shrs, 05.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1322, 70.1% buys
    11:40-11:51: 031900 shrs, 01.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1305, 06.0% buys
    12:05-12:26: 069600 shrs, 03.31% of vol, VWAP $0.1319, 56.9% buys
    12:32-12:54: 116600 shrs, 05.54% of vol, VWAP $0.1323, 22.8% buys
    13:03-13:59: 215400 shrs, 10.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1326, 51.3% buys
    14:00-14:28: 280140 shrs, 13.32% of vol, VWAP $0.1308, 18.1% buys
    14:32-14:48: 096000 shrs, 04.56% of vol, VWAP $0.1304, 11.5% buys
    15:08-15:21: 276584 shrs, 13.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1290, 14.9% buys
    15:38-15:59: 088416 shrs, 04.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1286, 43.0% buys

    Yesterday's "the "definite negative posture", I believe will finally become the trend I've been expecting (but too early) seems to be put on hold" is now active again. More below.

    Five consecutive days of the same 85% price now. If we can hold VWAP >= $0.1258, the 85% price will hold again. Short-term, I think it's possible. But I'm now seeing stronger indications that lower price, which I began to expect much too early (about a week early ATM). More below.

    The volatility continues with an intra-day spread of ~7.42%, up slightly from yesterday.

    The 25-day average buy percentage still hasn't made it back into "normal" range. It's close and stuck at 29% (plus a decimal which is climbing). The other averages are 30% or greater. The 100-day is very slowly declining while the others are slowly rising. I consider 30% the bottom of "normal" for averages.

    With today's "buys" move to 31.1%, the trend becomes clearer, from the 10th (day of the "pop"): 48.25%, 43.12%, 36.27%, 45.55%, 43.51%, 33.08%, 47.26%, 34.66%, 39.59% and 31.15%. I never did see the strength in the buy percentage that characterized prior pops. Even my "grind up" call had much higher buy percentages and sustained them right on through the top, most of which can be seen on the current charts at the left side.

    Referencing my expected drop in volume and daily short sales in the next day or two, largely based on what I thought the MMs were doing now, the trend is now developing more strongly. Today volume dropped -27.92% while daily short volume dropped -44.40%. This produced, of course, a lower daily short percentage, down -22.86% to 21.82%. So I'm still expecting the short-term trend to be lower on volume and daily short sales, accompanied by price weakening which seems to have begun today.

    We had a very large average trade size again today, up from the ~10.8K yesterday by 9.12% to 11,751, still down from Thursday's ~12.2K, which is what I would be expecting if weakening is beginning. The latter number is in the middle of the "pop" where suspicions of weakening by the general populace likely hadn't begun yet.

    I'll briefly mention my inflection point calculations: original showing weakening on the horizon and newer showing prior uncertainty morphing into forecasting weakening now. The newer version was correct to respond later than the original 9and actually seems to have reflected what we see on price action) as it considers factors other than just buy:sell and volume. Now the two shortest-term are definitely trending lower - lower highs and lows in the vacillation - and the longer-term ones are still doing the "Let's wait and see" bit. When the do "see", they should break quite rapidly.

    Combining all the above, I still see negatives near-term.

    On the traditional TA front, I won't bore with all the oscillator numbers - movements were quite small. But the oscillators I watch all weakened a bit. Since they never really got much above neutral, this isn't surprising. MACD has the histogram beginning to weaken and, wouldn't you know it, the signal line finally crosses above zero. There must be a perverse personality, that likes to keep us on edge, behind all this.

    This is rational since we had a lower high, low and volume - a bearish suggestion and, as mentioned yesterday, we had topped right at the prior point of support, now resistance, and the level that defined a top on the prior sideways trading before we broke down.

    Regarding the trouble in past attempts getting, and staying, above the 50-day SMA, just like the period I referenced before, we've now started "Breaking Bad"". Since we're in the 8th day of trading around that 50-day SMA, just a few days less than that prior period, the timing is about right. It also started breaking after a couple days trading above the 50-day SMA - we've done two now.

    We are still pushing the upper Bollinger - a break towards the middle of the range, which was ~$0.1196 Tuesday, would be $0.1109 today, would be a normal result if we are not really "breaking out".

    Volume is up from Tuesday, but continues within a trend lower from 10/15's peak. Still don't know if this short-term trend is a consolidation before continuing up. I'm leaning towards no - I think our move is down.

    At day's start, with BTIG on the offer top, we had $0.1375 still offered. At 10:00, when I first spotted ARCA atop the heap, we had $0.133 offered. Typical, typical. ARCA, ATDF an BTIG vied for top spot until noon when NITE took the "honors". NITE, ARCA and BTIG made the competition for the rest of the day, delivering a rather disappointing early "Great Pumpkin" close of $0.1285, just slightly off the day's low of $0.128. TEJS and PERT, who were more aggressive yesterday, were not at the top much at all today.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.

    10/22/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 271, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 2918365, AvTrSz: 10769
    Min. Pr: 0.1295, Max Pr: 0.1385, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1334
    # Buys, Shares: 122 1155275, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1352
    # Sells, Shares: 148 1753090, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1323
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1302
    Buy:Sell 1:1.52 (39.6% "buys"), DlyShts 825575 (28.29%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 47.09%

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    10/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018
    10/22: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018

    Vol, in K, for above days: 2,444.18, 2,918.37.

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. 10/10 was the first big volume day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.

    10/09 $0.1039 -04.92% 16.3%
    10/10 $0.1106 +06.54% 48.2%
    10/11 $0.1246 +12.58% 43.1%
    10/14 $0.1258 +00.97% 36.3%
    10/15 $0.1269 +00.86% 45.6%
    10/16 $0.1277 +00.70% 43.5%
    10/17 $0.1237 -03.16% 33.1%
    10/18 $0.1286 +03.97% 47.3%
    10/21 $0.1283 -00.23% 34.7%
    10/22 $0.1334 +02.74% 39.6%

    Here's an arbitrary trading breakdown by price for today.
    0.1295-0.1300: 705089 shares, 24.16% of vol, VWAP 0.1300, b:s 1:69.51, 1.4% buys
    0.1301-0.1320: 448680 shares, 15.37% of vol, VWAP 0.1312, b:s 1:1.99, 32.7% buys
    0.1323-0.1339: 314500 shares, 10.78% of vol, VWAP 0.1327, b:s 1.08:1, 52.0% buys
    0.1344-0.1350: 497800 shares, 17.06% of vol, VWAP 0.1348, b:s 1:1.15, 46.6% buys
    0.1351-0.1359: 364301 shares, 12.48% of vol, VWAP 0.1353, b:s 1:4.69, 17.6% buys
    0.1360-0.1379: 491028 shares, 16.83% of vol, VWAP 0.1370, b:s 10.16:1, 91.0% buys
    0.1380-0.1385: 096967 shares, 03.32% of vol, VWAP 0.1383, b:s 18.39:1, 94.8% buys

    Here's an arbitrary breakdown by time.
    09:17-09:24: 045000 shrs, 01.54% of vol, VWAP $0.1329, 88.9% buys
    09:30-09:59: 426500 shrs, 14.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1320, 54.9% buys
    10:06-10:59: 375196 shrs, 12.86% of vol, VWAP $0.1300, 01.5% buys
    11:00-11:30: 107223 shrs, 03.67% of vol, VWAP $0.1301, 16.9% buys
    11:33-11:59: 191850 shrs, 06.57% of vol, VWAP $0.1314, 20.3% buys
    12:00-12:28: 416000 shrs, 14.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1351, 51.9% buys
    12:33-12:42: 144000 shrs, 04.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1310, 02.1% buys
    13:08-13:28: 097000 shrs, 03.32% of vol, VWAP $0.1320, 28.5% buys
    13:32-13:52: 025500 shrs, 00.87% of vol, VWAP $0.1317, 70.6% buys
    14:10-14:28: 212800 shrs, 07.29% of vol, VWAP $0.1327, 46.5% buys
    14:33-14:57: 255054 shrs, 08.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1366, 48.6% buys
    15:01-15:29: 370998 shrs, 12.71% of vol, VWAP $0.1361, 52.6% buys
    15:32-15:47: 151443 shrs, 05.19% of vol, VWAP $0.1374, 88.4% buys
    15:48-15:59: 144801 shrs, 04.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1355, 29.0% buys

    There was only one $0.1295 trade, pre-market - the first trade for 5K shares - the rest were $0.133-$0.1335.

    As mentioned yesterday, the "definite negative posture", I believe will finally become the trend I've been expecting (but too early) seems to be put on hold. We have ...

    Another string of the 85% price holding - now four days, again, in a row now with no drop. But our daily VWAP keeps trying to inch lower, so I guess the 85% price will drop another x/100ths of a penny in the next couple days, just like the four-day run did (85% was $0.1020, IIRC).

    The volatility continues with an intra-day spread of ~6.95%, $0.1295 to $0.1385. The spread percentage is down about 1/3rd from yesterday.

    The 25-day average still hasn't made it back into "normal" range. It's close and stuck at 29%. I consider 30% the bottom of "normal" for averages.

    Referencing my expected drop in volume and daily short sales in the next day or two, largely based on what I thought the MMs were doing now, the part that started yesterday, daily short sales volume was up marginally, at ~8.5%, but as a percentage of volume, which again was up - 19.4% today - the move was down by ~9.1%. So I'm still expecting the short-term trend to be lower on volume and daily short sales. This should be accompanied by price weakening

    Regarding yesterday's discussion of the daily short sales, I mentioned only the 100-day average was still trending down and it seems to have started to flatten. Nothing changed yet on this front.

    We had a very large average trade size again today, but the ~10.8K was down from Thursday's ~12.2K.

    Combining all the above, I still see negatives near-term.

    On the traditional TA front, RSI is moved from ~55 to ~60 and momentum from 1.10 to 1.17. Both readings are continuing to move more positive. MFI went from ~60 ~68, still more bullish than the other two, and getting closer to where I call it "strong". MACD is still moving positive and the signal line is trying to go positive now. But the histogram is flat, after a slight "cupping" pattern.

    As with yesterday, I'd like to be optimistic about all that, but I'm not yet. Same concerns ...

    Only marginal rises in price that accompany recent occurrences of positive moves in daily short sales and their averages have keep me cautious.

    My experimental inflection point calculations, which I had come to think might be useless in this environment and then had to revise that view, continue making a small move up and then started down again. I need to see a steady, although it could be radically fast move develop, similar but opposite to the pattern which changed my mind. This time we are not coming off a bullish pattern and getting the first indication of a down move though. We are coming off the bottom of that down move. So I still don't know how much weight to give those readings - it's a different situation ATM.

    On the more traditional TA front, in the past I mentioned a couple times how we had trouble in past attempts getting, and staying, above the 50-day SMA on traditional charts. "We've been trading intra-day above and below that figure, ... The past recent occurrence where we did this, 5/23-6/4, we managed to get above it the last couple days and then saw price action start "Breaking Bad"". Nothing has changed my view yet.

    We are still pushing the upper Bollinger - a break towards the middle of the range, which would be ~$0.1196 today, would be a normal result if this is not a real "break out".

    We topped right at the prior point of support, now resistance, and the level that defined a top on the prior sideways trading before we broke down.

    Volume is up from Tuesday, but continues within a trend lower from 10/15's peak. Still don't know if this short-term trend is a consolidation before continuing up. I'm leaning towards no - I think our move is down.

    ARCA and all the usual suspects were active on the offer from the start of the day. But we have some MMs that haven't been that aggressive getting more so on the ask side. TEJS and PERT achieved the pinnacle of the offers, briefly, and stayed around the top for a good part of the day. This suggests to me that there is more sentiment to sell at these levels developing.

    Since we are working in an environment where the PIPErs (a.k.a. "financiers") are getting large amounts of new shares at constantly decreasing prices to dump into the market, I take the above offers action, which showed newly active contestants on the sell side, as a negative indicator.

    I thought it would be useful to repeat the repeating behavior I had seen. On a one-year chart we have a few cycles of new lows and highs that might be of interest.

    BegDt EndDt TrDa Beg Pr End Pr Change_ Avg/Day
    11/12 01/11 0041 0.2018 0.3800 +88.31% +2.15% "Grind up" called
    01/11 04/29 0073 0.3800 0.2001 -47.34% -0.65%
    04/29 05/31 0023 0.2001 0.2775 +38.68% +1.68%
    05/31 07/15 0030 0.2775 0.1251 -54.92% -1.83% PIPE became confirmed
    07/15 07/23 0006 0.1251 0.1950 +55.88% +9.31% High again 7/29
    07/23 08/15 0017 0.1950 0.1250 -35.90% -2.11%
    08/15 08/21 0004 0.1250 0.1650 +32.00% +8.00%
    08/21 10/08 0033 0.1650 0.1000 -39.39% -1.19% Low thru NSC PR 10/10

    Each of our "new lows" has been re-visited, had a pop following and then made new lows again. Notice how short the intervals have become since reality smacked us after 4/29? And, of course, we learned of the PIPE in late May.

    We have not seen new highs re-visited.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.

    10/21/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 251, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 90000, Vol: 2444176, AvTrSz: 9738
    Min. Pr: 0.1237, Max Pr: 0.1348, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1283
    # Buys, Shares: 121 847209, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1289
    # Sells, Shares: 127 1578967, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1280
    # Unkn, Shares: 3 18000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1280
    Buy:Sell 1:1.86 (34.7% "buys"), DlyShts 760929 (31.13%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 48.19%

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    10/21: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018

    Vol, in K, for above days: 2,444.18.

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. 10/10 was the first big volume day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.

    10/09 $0.1039 -04.92% 16.3%
    10/10 $0.1106 +06.54% 48.2%
    10/11 $0.1246 +12.58% 43.1%
    10/14 $0.1258 +00.97% 36.3%
    10/15 $0.1269 +00.86% 45.6%
    10/16 $0.1277 +00.70% 43.5%
    10/17 $0.1237 -03.16% 33.1%
    10/18 $0.1286 +03.97% 47.3%
    10/21 $0.1283 -00.23% 34.7%

    Here's an arbitrary trading breakdown by price for today.
    $0.1237-$0.1237: 001683 shares, 00.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1237, b:s , 0.0% buys
    $0.1260-$0.1270: 273800 shares, 11.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1266, b:s 1:3.60, 21.7% buys
    $0.1275-$0.1279: 757184 shares, 30.98% of vol, VWAP $0.1275, b:s 1:10.61, 8.6% buys
    $0.1280-$0.1299: 987009 shares, 40.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1283, b:s 1.15:1, 52.5% buys
    $0.1300-$0.1310: 311300 shares, 12.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1303, b:s 1:1.46, 40.7% buys
    $0.1315-$0.1348: 113200 shares, 04.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1329, b:s 2.17:1, 68.5% buys

    The "definite negative posture", I believe will finally become the trend I've been expecting (but too early) seems to be put on hold. We have ...

    Another string of the 85% price holding - three days in a row now with no drop. But our daily VWAP keeps trying to inch lower, so I guess the 85% price will drop another x/100ths of a penny in the next couple days, just like the four-day run did (85% was $0.1020, IIRC).

    The volatility continues with an intra-day spread of ~9%, $0.1237 to $0.1348.

    VWAP is above all the moving averages. The 50-day, which is descending, seems to have acted as a cap. VWAP has been "trapped" between that and the 25-day average ATM and is above the 50-day by only 1/100th of a penny today. Well, maybe it's a start. Current readings for the 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200-day averages respectively: $0.1270, $0.1209, $0.1214, $0.1282, $0.1530 and $0.2214.

    10, 50 and 100-day averages for buy percentage have moved back into normal ranges now at 37%, 30%, and 0.34%. Only the 25-day hasn't made it yet and it's close at 29%. I consider 30% the bottom of "normal" for averages.

    I posted an APC comment this morning that I expected volume and daily short sales to start dropping in the next day or two, largely based on what I thought the MMs were doing now. It looks like part of it started today, but I can't say whether it will continue. The high volume surprised me today, although maybe it shouldn't have. Friday I had mentioned that volume might be down due to a "Friday Effect". I totally forgot about that when I posted this morning. Anyway, volume was up from Friday by 65.6% while daily short sales volume was up only ~37.5%. So our short percentage dropped -16.9% to 31.13% from 37.47%. Tuesday should give a clue as we move away from the start of "A new week, new opportunities".

    Regardless, the daily short sales percentages have been up in a higher range long enough to start to seriously move the averages. Only the 100-day average is still trending down and it seems to have started to flatten. Daily normal short sales percentages are something I've stated for some time is needed to have a trend up in prices begin. The 10, 25, 50 and 100-day readings: 25.96%, 16.31%, 15.13% and 19.61% respectively. I have a "but" in the pessimistic view below.

    On the traditional TA front, RSI is at ~55 and momentum is 1.10. Both readings are slightly positive - but I call them really more "neutral". MFI is ~60 and rising, more bullish than the other two, but a long way from where I call it "strong". MACD is still moving positive, but the histogram has flattened with a slight "cupping" pattern. The signal and average lines are still below zero, though rising.

    I'd like to be optimistic about all that, but I'm not yet. My concerns are centered around ...

    ... BUT, the recent occurrences of positive moves in daily short sales and their averages have produced only marginal rises in price that seem to go predominately flat for a couple weeks after the rise and then continue the trend down. That is easily seen on my charts.

    My experimental inflection point calculations, which I had come to think might be useless in this environment and then had to revise that view, have made a small move up and then started down again - but it's only a one-day change, so .... Unlike the pattern which changed my mind, this time we are not coming off a bullish pattern and getting the first indication of a down move though. We are coming off the bottom of that down move. So I don't know how much weight to give those readings - it's a different situation ATM.

    On the more traditional TA front, in the past I mentioned a couple times how we had trouble in past attempts getting, and staying, above the 50-day SMA on traditional charts. We've been trading intra-day above and below that figure, now $0.1269 and still creeping lower, for six consecutive days now and managed to close above the then-current reading only twice - 10/16 and today. The past recent occurrence where we did this, 5/23-6/4, we managed to get above it the last couple days and then saw price action start "Breaking Bad". On the ninth day we moved decisively below the 50-day SMA. In consideration, that was the start of the PIPE financing though.

    All the oscillators I watch, except those mentioned above, are weakening: accumulation and distribution, stochastic and ADX related. The trading range has been pushing on the traditional 20-period upper Bollinger limit, currently $0.1312, for seven consecutive days now. With the lower reading at $0.1065, a normal move would be towards the mid-point of $0.1189 today.

    Today's close, AFAICT, is above my descending resistance. The prior time it did that was 10/16. Next day was down, closing at $0.1218.

    Volume is up from Friday, but continues to trend lower from 10/15's peak. With VWAP, and traditional price views, unable to begin a charge up off this recent PR pop, the falling volume trend is concerning. Are we just doing a consolidation before mounting a charge up the hill or getting ready to tumble downhill? Maybe we are in a "holding pattern" until the next news?

    ARCA and all the usual suspects were active on the offer from the start of the day: ATDF, NITE, BTIG and CSTI decided to join in the fun later on. They were an active contestant for top honors from 12:45 onward. From 15:00 on TEJSD decided to get in and was at the top about half the times I checked from then on.

    Since we are working in an environment where the PIPErs (a.k.a. "financiers") are getting large amounts of new shares at constantly decreasing prices to dump into the market, I take the above offers action, which showed newly active contestants on the sell side, as a negative indicator.

    I thought it would be useful to repeat the repeating behavior I had seen. On a one-year chart we have a few cycles of new lows and highs that might be of interest.

    BegDt EndDt TrDa Beg Pr End Pr Change_ Avg/Day
    11/12 01/11 0041 0.2018 0.3800 +88.31% +2.15% "Grind up" called
    01/11 04/29 0073 0.3800 0.2001 -47.34% -0.65%
    04/29 05/31 0023 0.2001 0.2775 +38.68% +1.68%
    05/31 07/15 0030 0.2775 0.1251 -54.92% -1.83% PIPE became confirmed
    07/15 07/23 0006 0.1251 0.1950 +55.88% +9.31% High again 7/29
    07/23 08/15 0017 0.1950 0.1250 -35.90% -2.11%
    08/15 08/21 0004 0.1250 0.1650 +32.00% +8.00%
    08/21 10/08 0033 0.1650 0.1000 -39.39% -1.19% Low thru NSC PR 10/10

    Each of our "new lows" has been re-visited, had a pop following and then made new lows again. Notice how short the intervals have become since reality smacked us after 4/29? And, of course, we learned of the PIPE in late May.

    We have not seen new highs re-visited.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.

    10/18/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 185, MinTrSz: 250, MaxTrSz: 65000, Vol: 1476191, AvTrSz: 7979
    Min. Pr: 0.1230, Max Pr: 0.1360, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1286
    # Buys, Shares: 95 697591, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1321
    # Sells, Shares: 86 747600, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1255
    # Unkn, Shares: 4 31000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1262
    Buy:Sell 1:1.07 (47.3%), DlyShts 553173 (37.47%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 73.99%

    Today is a little more "content-rich". Yeah, still the usual amount of opinion and maybes, guesses, ... But there's intra-day breakdowns and something that may interest folks. Look for "Speaking of repeating behavior" deep in today's EOD stuff in the blog.

    Before I forget, I want to mention that the 10-day average of buy percentage is making a nice recovery. It's now back within the normal range at least. Buy percentage will need to remain strong for a while though to get it back centered around the 40%-60% area, which is what we need.

    Feels good to actually spot something that might indicate bullishness.

    Haven't done a trading breakdown for a while. Here's one by time.
    09:30-09:59: 244522 shares, 16.56% of vol, VWAP $0.1306, 59.9% buys
    10:01-10:28: 103500 shares, 07.01% of vol, VWAP $0.1259, 100.0% buys
    10:40-10:59: 208699 shares, 14.14% of vol, VWAP $0.1291, 59.4% buys
    11:00-11:30: 070500 shares, 04.78% of vol, VWAP $0.1276, 98.6% buys
    11:40-11:53: 038000 shares, 02.57% of vol, VWAP $0.1281, 100.0% buys
    12:04-12:17: 022500 shares, 01.52% of vol, VWAP $0.2249, 73.3% buys
    12:40-12:56: 171340 shares, 11.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1278, 37.3% buys
    13:06-13:29: 093000 shares, 06.30% of vol, VWAP $0.1259, 30.6% buys
    13:41-13:58: 088000 shares, 05.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1265, 39.8% buys
    14:00-14:30: 039700 shares, 02.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1255, 24.4% buys
    14:36-14:58: 111100 shares, 07.53% of vol, VWAP $0.1249, 10.9% buys
    15:02-15:30: 100496 shares, 06.81% of vol, VWAP $0.1242, 38.3% buys
    15:31-15:45: 067400 shares, 04.57% of vol, VWAP $0.1242, 1.9% buys
    15:46-15:58: 117434 shares, 07.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1240, 9.1% buys

    Here's one by arbitrary price range.
    $0.1230-$0.1249: 311330 shrs, 21.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1241, b:s 1:4.20, 18.1% buys
    $0.1250-$0.1270: 519322 shrs, 35.18% of vol, VWAP $0.1255, b:s 1:2.58, 27.8% buys
    $0.1275-$0.1299: 501339 shrs, 33.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1327, b:s 2.79:1, 72.2% buys
    $0.1300-$0.1300: 016200 shrs, 01.10% of vol, VWAP $0.1300, b:s 1.61:1, 61.7% buys
    $0.1359-$0.1360: 121000 shrs, 08.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1360, b:s 39.33:1, 97.5% buys

    Here's a continuation of some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. 10/10 was the first big volume day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.

    10/09 $0.1039 -04.92% 16.3%
    10/10 $0.1106 +06.54% 48.2%
    10/11 $0.1246 +12.58% 43.1%
    10/14 $0.1258 +00.97% 36.3%
    10/15 $0.1269 +00.86% 45.6%
    10/16 $0.1277 +00.70% 43.5%
    10/17 $0.1237 -03.16% 33.1%
    10/18 $0.1286 +03.97% 47.3%

    We see volatility here as yesterday we had transitioned to a definite negative posture, which I believe will finally become the trend I've been expecting (but a couple days too early). We'll just have to wait it out and see how it plays out as today now suggest positive movement.

    Yesterday I moaned about ending our four-day "streak" of not generating ever-reducing 85% prices. Thanks to today's VWAP staying above that $0.1285 I mentioned a while back, we held the same price today as yesterday. So now we need to see this continue and start a new trend.

    I'd like to be optimistic about that, but I'm not yet.

    Watching a heavy bias towards "buys" with good volume, I thought daily shorts would be high again today. They were on a relative basis. Trade volume was down ~52.4% while daily short volume was down only ~10.25. If trade volume holds up well for an extended period we'll see daily short volume remain high, percentage-wise, on average and this could allow some appreciation in price.

    If trade volume falls off to former low levels (e.g. the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages on 10/8 of (in thousands) 752, 707, 799 and 697 respectively) we'll likely see daily short averages for those same periods begin to look like the averages, in percentages, for those same periods seen on 10/8 of 11.14%, 10.92%, 14.30% and 19.95%. As we've learned from hard experience we don't generally see any price appreciation trend sustained under those conditions.

    ATM although I like the higher daily short sales, I am uncomfortable about it. It's again above recent trend, in which case I would be alert for a plummet again, accompanied by VWAP decline such as we saw yesterday, 10/17. However, the averages are moving up and if this is part of the vacillation as "normal" percentages are again being established, it's all good. That trend line I'm using is descending and at some point it will be below the new trend being established. Maybe this is the time? We'll see.

    With the "bounce" in volume, but not in VWAP, seen yesterday and the volume drop so big today while VWAP increased 3.97%, I'm wondering if this is the tail-off from the "pop" or normal volatility as a new trend is not yet established. Yesterday's big volume was on a down day, not an up day. Today's up day was on reducing volume, not increasing.

    Not good ju-ju. But might it be just a "Friday Effect"? Ah, hard to say, but I don't think so. Maybe I'm just too jaded to believe it all now.

    Our price spread today is 10.57%. But be sure and look at the trading breakdowns above - 4 opening trades were apparently market buys while asks were sitting at $0.136 (strange that - haven't seen such a bid/ask spread normally. Some MM knew what was in the market but hidden from us - a market buy wouldn't show on the queues because there's no bid price?). We had one more trade at $0.136 at 10:56. As soon as the opening trades cleared and two trades at $0.13 were made, we dropped below $0.13.

    More on that unusual opening. At 8:40 A.M best bid was $0.1217x5K from NITE and best ask $0.1222x5K from NITE and BTIG. At 09:25 A.M, just before open, best bid was $0.1219x5K by NITE and best ask was $0.136x5K from PERT TEJS NITE and BTIG.

    As mentioned, the first 4 trades took all the $0.136 offered (including a $0.1359x3K trade) for a total volume of 113K. Two more trades @ $0.13 went and we started trading $0.1290, $0.1290 and $0.1230 and then a very long period of $0.125 trades.

    Now look at the bids and asks at 09:32.
    best bids: $0.13x7K ATDF/$0.121x5K(2)x24K BTIG NITE CDEL/$0.1205 ...
    best asks: $0.1325x15K NITE/$0.135x7K ATDF/$0.136x5K(3) PERT TEJS BTIG ...

    Every MM that was offering @ $0.136 is still doing so except NITE.

    I conclude that (at least) NITE, one of the (formerly) best-capitalized and largest of the market-makers, saw buy order(s) for either a market price or a limit price of $0.136 on their queue and sold into that market. Once done, they moved their offer down to something closer to, but still above, the best bid while PERT, TEJS and BTIG got to sit there with quizzical expressions on their mugs.

    I have noticed some "monkey see, monkey do" occasionally among MMs. Maybe Those three MMs saw NITE and just copied the behavior before the open, hoping to "get lucky"? Bachelors all?

    ARCA showed up at the top of the ask at 09:36 today. Going forward they and BTIG and NITE (these two from early-on) dominated the ask side. ATDF must have skipped the morning Wheaties because they didn't make to the to of the ask until around 12:12. They could only sporadically make it to the top for the rest of the day. Understandable since after lunch ARCA started gradually getting more aggressive - I think when some folks see ARCA they just figure why bother. From about 15:00 on it was all ARCA the few times I checked.

    I said yesterday "At last, it looks like the pop is behaving normally". I think this volatility is part of the common behavior as trends change.

    I mentioned the traditional TA stuff being fickle yesterday, noting "From yesterday's suggestion of some potential bullish sentiment, everything but the stochastic and MACD switched from strengthening to weakening". Well, the oscillators decided a little back-tracking might be in order. Today all that I track but for ADX related and Williams %R weakened.

    Remembering that price action had managed to close above my descending trend line, which was quite close to the 50-day SMA,and the difficulty price had staying around and above the 50-day SMA in the past, it's notable today that we closed below my descending resistance and again below the 50-day SMA, now $0.1272. having said yesterday "This means confirmation of a break above the falling resistance, a second close above it, that the Traditional TA would look for will not happen". Considering the rise in VWAP and reducing volume, this "failure" looks to be even more likely for the moment.

    This was the fifth consecutive day trading around the 50-day SMA. Depending on what's counted, our prior occurrence was around seven days or so before a break down.

    Speaking of repeating behavior, on a one-year chart we have a few cycles of new lows and highs that might be of interest.

    BegDt EndDt TrDa Beg Pr End Pr Change_ Avg/Day
    11/12 01/11 0041 0.2018 0.3800 +88.31% +2.15% "Grind up" called
    01/11 04/29 0073 0.3800 0.2001 -47.34% -0.65%
    04/29 05/31 0023 0.2001 0.2775 +38.68% +1.68%
    05/31 07/15 0030 0.2775 0.1251 -54.92% -1.83% PIPE became confirmed
    07/15 07/23 0006 0.1251 0.1950 +55.88% +9.31% High again 7/29
    07/23 08/15 0017 0.1950 0.1250 -35.90% -2.11%
    08/15 08/21 0004 0.1250 0.1650 +32.00% +8.00%
    08/21 10/08 0033 0.1650 0.1000 -39.39% -1.19% Low thru NSC PR 10/10

    Each of our "new lows" has been re-visited, had a pop following and then made new lows again. Notice how short the intervals have become since reality smacked us after 4/29? And, of course, we learned of the PIPE in late May.

    We have not seen new highs re-visited.

    We are now working in an environment where the PIPErs (a.k.a. "financiers") are getting large amounts of new shares at constantly decreasing prices to dump into the market.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    10/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1200, x 85%: $0.1020
    10/15: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1199, x 85%: $0.1020
    10/16: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1199, x 85%: $0.1020
    10/17: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018
    10/18: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018

    Vol, in K, for above days: 2,088.88, 4,122.32, 2,982.47, 3097.83, 1476.19.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are are in the latest daily post above.

    10/17/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 254, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 105100, Vol: 3097833, AvTrSz: 12196
    Min. Pr: 0.1200, Max Pr: 0.1299, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1237
    # Buys, Shares: 107 1024628, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1244
    # Sells, Shares: 143 2026705, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1234
    # Unkn, Shares: 4 46500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1220
    Buy:Sell 1:1.98 (33.1% "buys"), DlyShts 616357 (19.90%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 30.41%

    For the second consecutive day there was one pre-market trade of 5K that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 3,092,833 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 19.93% to my 19.90%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 616,537 to 621,357 and the short percentage would be 20.06%.

    Before I go further, I would encourage folks with an interest to look at my inflection-point calculation charts, especially the test versions. On the test versions the 25 through 200-day periods told us several days in advance that this pop was not sustainable. This surprised me because I had considered them less useful (maybe even useless?) in the environment of PIPErs. In retrospect, maybe the warranted more faith than I gave them.

    What's unknown, as yet, is if it's just a congruence of timing of data falling out of the various bands or not. I suspect not as I mentioned in the past I was gaining confidence in the newer versions. This was before the PIPErs though and I was seeing stuff that apparently reflected what was intended - normal changes in sentiment associated with normal investing and trading activities.

    Although they, and I, kept thinking the run was done a couple days too early, it's apparent now that they, and I, benefited from the "even a stopped clock is right twice a day", if today's action indicates what the next trend will be.

    With the volume seen, I suspect this is foretelling a trend coming.

    As a side note, I wonder if the shorter-term calculations might need tweaking or maybe are not that useful because they don't reflect as strongly what the other periods do. Being shorter periods I would like them to be a bit more sensitive without getting "flaky". That's something for me to consider in the future.

    Moving on to the usual ...

    ARRRGH! I know it's not national "Talk Like A Pirate Week", but ARRRGH! We ended our four-day streak of the 85% price holding unchanged today! Oh well, four consecutive days is probably the best we should have hoped for. It does have the benefit of not becoming addicting, which I wondered about yesterday.

    Yesterday I said, in part, "... the traditional TA stuff discussed later, but only lightly, shows more potential for optimism. I can't trust it because it has been wrong so many times before. Maybe it's me, not the indicators".

    NO FAIL! :-)) I'll discuss the details later, but with a couple recent fails stuck in my craw, I needed this!

    Yesterday I said "... If the patterns are now repeating reliably, a much larger drop in daily short sales should occur tomorrow or the next day. And I also suspect trade volume and short percentage will reduce.".

    A partial NO FAIL! Today's trade volume was up ~3.8%. Rational since we apparently started the down move I've been too early on. There was a drop in both the absolute daily short volume as well as the percentage. Short volume dropped ~42.1% and short percentage dropped ~44.2%. The latter figure was largely a result of very large trading volume again today, pretty close to, and a bit above, the average of the prior five days of the pop, ~2.833.4 million.

    The daily short sales percentage move is comforting as I mentioned yesterday "... has been above trend (see my charts) the last couple days and the prior behavior suggests a big drop should appear shortly". Behaving as I expect is comforting, for the usual reasons (I'm "getting" maybe).

    One surprise though: "as long as volume remains high, which it certainly could ... the daily short sales are more likely to remain high". Normally I wouldn't call 19.9% "high", but relative to our trends before the pop, maybe it is. I'm unsure how to view it in this context.

    I mentioned yesterday, in part, "Specifically, I think VWAP is likely more reliable and the changes to it may be quite suggestive and, hopefully, reliable. Now, it could be just indicating a consolidation, but with ... I suspect not".

    Here's a continuation of some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. 10/10 was the first big volume day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.

    10/09 $0.1039 -04.92% 16.3%
    10/10 $0.1106 +06.54% 48.2%
    10/11 $0.1246 +12.58% 43.1%
    10/14 $0.1258 +00.97% 36.3%
    10/15 $0.1269 +00.86% 45.6%
    10/16 $0.1277 +00.70% 43.5%
    10/17 $0.1237 -03.16% 33.1%

    Again, note the trend in VWAP combined with buy percentage. From yesterday's "buy percentage settling, thus far, slightly below "break even" and the VWAP increase beginning to flatten ...", we have now transitioned to a definite negative posture, which I believe will finally become the trend I've been expecting (but a couple days too early).

    Keep in mind that yesterday I said "But I'm suspecting today will have both volume and daily short sales reduced substantially. May not be a risky call since one of those just made a new all-time high for my tracking". If I had omitted "substantially", I might have had it right. Since I didn't .. again, partial FAIL!

    Yesterday's "It looks like I get "re-do" here - volume today is down 27.63% from yesterday's ~4.12MM. Volatility in volume is telling us something is getting ready to happen ...".

    Something happened! :-))

    At last, it looks like the pop is behaving "normally", but it was later in coming than I expected. The question of "... is whether this was a trend-ending volume spike" is still now answered I think. And "Right now I'm looking at daily shorts, buy percentage and VWAP behavior that suggests to me that they confirm today's drop in volume (again) says the pop is (very near? Is now?) over" finally looks to have been a correct reading. But I'd been wrong twice on it!

    Our price spread, 8.25%, narrowed a wee bit from yesterday's 9.41%. With high volume and a decent-sized move down on the close, (5.58%), and VWAP, (3.16%), I guess this sort of volatility is to be expected.

    ARCA was in from the start and present near the ask top almost all day. But most of the usual suspects joined it at one time or another throughout the day: ATDF (a lot), NITE, (frequently), BTIG (mostly early in the day) and CDEL and ETRF early in the day.

    The traditional TA stuff is sure is fickle. From yesterday's suggestion of some potential bullish sentiment, everything but the stochastic and MACD switched from strengthening to weakening. Those two are being rather stubborn ATM.

    I had mentioned how price action managed to close above my descending trend line, the trend line was very close to the 50-day SMA and the difficulty price had staying around and above the 50-day SMA in the past. Price closed below the descending trend line and the 50-day SMA, now at $0.1275. This means confirmation of a break above the falling resistance, a second close above it, that the Traditional TA would look for will not happen.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    10/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1200, x 85%: $0.1020
    10/15: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1199, x 85%: $0.1020
    10/16: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1199, x 85%: $0.1020
    10/17: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1198, x 85%: $0.1018

    Vol, in K, for above days: 2,088.88, 4,122.32, 2,982.47, 3097.83.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.

    10/16/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 355, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 2982470, AvTrSz: 8401
    Min. Pr: 0.1222, Max Pr: 0.1349, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1277
    # Buys, Shares: 203 1298055, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1286
    # Sells, Shares: 142 1566415, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1270
    # Unkn, Shares: 10 119000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1283
    Buy:Sell 1:1.21 (43.5% "buys"), DlyShts 1063555 (35.66%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 67.94%

    There was one pre-market trade of 5K that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 2,978,470 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 35.71% to my 35.65%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 1,063,555 to 1,068,555 and the short percentage would be 35.82%.

    Regardless of my bearish interpretation of my experimental stuff, presented first, the traditional TA stuff discussed later, but only lightly, shows more potential for optimism. I can't trust it because it has been wrong so many times before. Maybe it's me, not the indicators.

    A fourth consecutive day wherein the 85% price did not drop! Can this become addicting? Let us hope so!

    Before EOD, I entered here "I'm thinking a small decline in daily short sales volume today. But with volume still looking pretty good, I could be off base. Another possibility is that short volume reduces a wee bit but short percentage is higher".

    In the end, scenario two held sway. If the patterns are now repeating reliably, a much larger drop in daily short sales should occur tomorrow or the next day. And I also suspect trade volume and short percentage will reduce.

    What's leading me is not only my expectations, which could be biased by my new Axion PIPE-induced perma-bear status, but looking at things I think more indicative of sentiment than the traditional TA open, high, low and close, ... Specifically, I think VWAP is likely more reliable and the changes to it may be quite suggestive and, hopefully, reliable.

    Now, it could be just indicating a consolidation, but with PIPErs still very active today (ARCA in at the start, BTIG quite aggressive on the ask too, a weaker late brief pop before the final slide into the close ...), I suspect not.

    Here are some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. 10/10 was the first big volume day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.

    10/09 $0.1039 -04.92% 16.3%
    10/10 $0.1106 +06.54% 48.2%
    10/11 $0.1246 +12.58% 43.1%
    10/14 $0.1258 +00.97% 36.3%
    10/15 $0.1269 +00.86% 45.6%
    10/16 $0.1277 +00.70% 43.5%

    Note the trend in VWAP combined with buy percentage. With the buy percentage settling, thus far, slightly below "break even" and the VWAP increase beginning to flatten, and the buy percentage never having got as high as past moves up that exhibited strength (or even over 50%), this seems to me to be not exhibiting sustained strength.

    I add in that the daily short sales percentage has been above trend (see my charts) the last couple days and the prior behavior suggests a big drop should appear shortly. That has had a strong correlation to (slowly?) falling prices in the past. A caveat: as long as volume remains high, which it certainly could - this has run two days longer than I expect so far - the daily short sales are more likely to remain high. This is because of the mechanics of market-making. When the volume drops, those same mechanics (and I think other aspects of market-making strategy) lead to reducing short sales percentages and (slow?) price declines.

    Keep in mind that yesterday I said "But I'm suspecting today will have both volume and daily short sales reduced substantially. May not be a risky call since one of those just made a new all-time high for my tracking". If I had omitted "substantially", I might have had it right. Since I didn't .. again, FAIL!

    Yesterday, in relation to having said "... From the first day's volume we're down 21.31% ... FAIL! :-)) How 'bout I just claim I'm early? ;-))".

    It looks like I get "re-do" here - volume today is down 27.63% from yesterday's ~4.12MM. Volatility in volume is telling us something is getting ready to happen. You know my bias, but it could go completely against what I think I'm seeing in the experimental stuff I'm doing, as suggested by the traditional TA stuff mentioned later.

    Still tracking if the pop is behaving "normally". The pop has gone two days longer than I expected now. The question from yesterday, "... is whether this was a trend-ending volume spike" is still unanswered. Right now I'm looking at daily shorts, buy percentage and VWAP behavior that suggests to me that they confirm today's drop in volume (again) says the pop is (very near? Is now?) over.

    But I've been wrong twice on this so far!

    Our price spread was 9.41%.

    ARCA was in from the start. I can't add much to that because I was again pressed trying to keep up with trades and I had to skip tracking and time-stamping of some of the bid/ask changes I usually do. I consider ARCA's continued presence because they almost never appeared before the PIPE deal. My thinking that as long as they are here and active, the PIPErs are doing their thing and will sell regardless of price. That has been the behavior. They have been adjusting to market pricing changes, but regardless of sideways, up or down prices, they constantly (apparently) strive to be near or at the front of the ask.

    Our closing price ended up 20/100ths of a cent and our VWAP end up only 9/100ths of a penny, down from yesterdays up 11/100ths of a penny, 86/100ths of a percent. Another thing of note is that our $0.1349 high, up from yesterday's $0.1320, was still lower than Monday's $0.1350.

    The traditional TA stuff is painting a different picture. The RSI has advanced to 56, continuing its improvement. Momentum is still above 105 - with a slow rise apparently underway. Ditto for stochastic, whit both lines still rising, and the MACD has been rising since shortly after the 8th and the histogram continues to become more positive. The signal line is now above the average for several days

    However, ADX related, which I mentioned yesterday looked like it had begun to flatten out and was showing weakening, continues it's flattening behavior with slightly less weakening exhibited.

    Price closed above the descending trend line I've mentioned for the first time. Traditional TA would look for confirmation of a second such close.

    Close was slightly above the 50-day SMA, now $0.1279. I have mentioned recently that we had not been able to make intra-day penetrations above the 50-day SMA more than a couple days since PIPE was done. Today is the third day and this time it closed above it. Hearkening back to a similar period, 5/22-6/4, we managed then to have nine days wherein we moved around, and briefly above, the 50-day SMA. This was coming on a rise off the abysmal low (then) of $0.2001 on 4/29.

    The unfortunate result of this was beginning another long down trend on 6/3 that led to, ultimately, what we now have as our environment.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    10/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1200, x 85%: $0.1020
    10/15: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1199, x 85%: $0.1020
    10/16: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1199, x 85%: $0.1020

    Vol, in K, for above days: 2,088.88, 4,122.32, 2,982.47.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    10/15/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 486, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 89900, Vol: 4122321, AvTrSz: 8482
    Min. Pr: 0.1000, Max Pr: 0.1320, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1269
    # Buys, Shares: 268 1877912, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1275
    # Sells, Shares: 212 2223681, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1263
    # Unkn, Shares: 6 20728, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1268
    Buy:Sell 1:1.18 (45.6%), DlyShts 1390478 (33.73%%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 62.53%

    Well. I think John's latest article must have had an effect or maybe the PR on the Axion/NSC presentation and WSJ re-print are having a longer-lasting effect than I envisioned. Huge volume. The highest I have recorded since I began tracking in February of '12.

    I posted in a comment today that I thought daily short sales would be higher, reversing the trend of downward that just recently started. I was unsure if it would be sufficient to make a high percentage though because our trade volume was looking so strong. I said yesterday, among other things, in reference to the daily shorts having started the down trend from the recent move up, "With the recent PR and the conference occurring this week, the pattern may not hold".

    Well, it didn't hold. And the volume of daily shorts surprised me even though I expected it to be higher today. If we could trade day-in and day-out with something around this 3x% level we would likely see some price movement in our favor.

    I also said "I think these are just tremors though, and not the quakes of change". I would call today a quake, in regard to volume and shorts, and say change is coming if this behavior continues. But color me skeptical for now. Axion has made me a Missouri transplant - "show me" is the rule now. In sustained data trends.

    Today's daily short percentage is right in the range that I look for, over the long haul, that suggests a "healthy" market that can have normal trends of up and down offering price movement over time that's not always down.

    But I'm suspecting today will have both volume and daily short sales reduced substantially. May not be a risky call since one of those just made a new all-time high for my tracking.

    Yesterday I said "Regardless of what effect may issue from the presentation, I'm tracking if the pop is behaving normally". This could be normal, but the pop has gone a day longer than I expected now. Of course, "three days" is just an approximation and may not signify anything unusual here. The question that immediately entered my mind when they day's huge volume became apparent is whether this was a trend-ending volume spike. Volume spikes very often signal the end of a trend, but we know we are in exceptional circumstances, so I'll just wait and see, rather than making my usual guess about it.

    Yesterday I said in part "... From the first day's volume we're down 21.31%. This is normal three-day, or so, pop behavior and leaves this metric on track to meet my expectations".

    FAIL! :-)) How 'bout I just claim I'm early? ;-))

    If we include an apparently erroneous $0.10x10K trade at 12:45:28, our price spread was 32%! At the time trades were going $0.124/$0.126. Excluding that trade, our spread was $0.1201-$0.1320, a more reasonable, but still to me disturbing, 9.91% spread. But on high volume days it's not uncommon, as we've seen.

    Price held up well until - you guessed it - ARCA showed up. I can't add much to that because I was so pressed trying to keep up with trades that I had to skip some of the tracking and time-stamping of some of the bid/ask changes I usually do. But I did see them appear and did see an immediate short-term change in the ask trend to the downside. I do remember thinking they were late today - might have to fire them - so it looks like they may have shown around noon, when we went from trading around $0.13 (11:59) to $0.1221 by 12:11.

    The extra sleep may have benefited them though - they may have been awake enough to recognize what was going on and backed off or maybe they just plain got overwhelmed. By 13:03 we were pretty steady back above $0.129. That held reasonably well - we were above the mid-$0.12 range the rest of the day and spent a lot of time around the $0.13 area right through 15:46, when at last, the typical late-day weakness appeared. But it was a struggle to hold the price down and we never went below $0.1261.

    A caveat is in order about the big gain from yesterday's close. One of our regular folks had entered a buy for $0.12 near the close. That was not executed right away and a sell at $0.1151 was done and then the $0.12 was executed after-hours even though it was not permitted for that. The individual surmises that this was to manipulate the tape. Here's the net effect. With a close at $0.1151, we closed today at +10.34%. If $0.12 had been the close the gain would be +5.83%. LoL! When he complained about "manipulation" I didn't ask if he was trying to do the same since his quantity was small. Pot and kettle scenario popped into my mind.

    In spite of the frenetic activity and price swings, our VWAP end up only 11/100ths of a penny, 86/100ths of a percent. Another thing of note is that out $0.1320 high was lower than yesterday's $0.1350. This is another little metric that adds to my feelings that this pop is nearing end-of-life. If we discount the $0.10 trade and take our low as $0.1201, we have a higher low and lower high combined with a volume spike. The compression of price suggests consolidation and the volume spike may suggest end of trend.

    So I will not be surprised if we now start to flatten or even see price and volume decay over the next couple days.

    However, the traditional TA stuff is painting a different picture. The RSI is now above 50 and if it continues to climb a rising price trend is suggested. Momentum is now above 105 - same suggestion. Ditto for stochastic, which both lines rising, and the MACD has been rising since shortly after the 8th and the histogram has gone positive.

    ADX related, which I mentioned yesterday looked like it had begun to flatten out, is now showing weakening.

    So we still have mixed oscillators.

    The descending trend line I've mentioned still seems to be in play. AFAICT we closed right on it. It is slightly below the 50-day SMA, now $0.1283. I have mentioned recently that we had not been able to make intra-day penetrations above the 50-day SMA more than a couple days since PIPE was done. Today is the second day and we again made it intra-day and retreated below it for the close.

    Looking a couple of non-traditional items, I've addressed the daily short sales above.

    While carping that "buys" percentage didn't jump as high as I would expect on a true sustainable move up, I listed recent percentages: 48.2%, 43.1% and yesterday's 36.3%. I guess I just can't be convinced because I see today's 45.6% reinforcing my concerns about the volume spike.

    I'm beginning to suspect that Axion has transformed me into a perma-bear. :-(( I guess that's just one more potential human-type of bias I have to struggle to offset!

    I'm still in the camp that first exhaustion occurs in the buyers, again sans another important PR soon. But that might be due to my newly-minted perma-bear badge.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    10/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1200, x 85%: $0.1020
    10/15: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1199, x 85%: $0.1020

    Vol, in K, for above days: 2,088.88, 4,122.32.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.

    10/14/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 259, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 54000, Vol: 2088880, AvTrSz: 8065
    Min. Pr: 0.1150, Max Pr: 0.1350, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1258
    # Buys, Shares: 108 757616, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1279
    # Sells, Shares: 149 1324264, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1246
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 7000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1221
    Buy:Sell 1:1.75 (36.3% "buys"), DlyShts 601501 (28.8%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 45.42%

    Daily short sales continue to meet my expectations, which is always comforting. Off the lows, spike up and start to tail down again: 6.92%, 5.00%, 31.58%, 29.42% and now 28.80%. With the recent PR and the conference occurring this week, the pattern may not hold. For now the is something different going on: for the last few days we've had a $0.11x400K bid from CANT sitting there. There's also been a 100K bid hanging low from ATDF. But today that got moved up to $0.129 along with a 100K bid at that price from NITE.

    I think these are just tremors though, and not the quakes of change.

    There was one after-market trade of 5K that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 2,083,880 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 28.86% to my 28.80%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 601,501 to 606,501 and the short percentage would be 29.03%

    Today will be the third day of the pop and the first day of presentations at the conference at which Axion and Norfolk Southern will make a joint presentation. Regardless of what effect may issue from the presentation, I'm tracking if the pop is behaving normally.

    Recapping some of yesterday's thoughts, recall that on the second day of the pop we still had good volume, but down 12.69% from the prior ~2.655MM shares and the price spread was compressed "to a still-disturbing (to me) 8.33% from yesterdays outrageous ~26%". Normal "pop" stuff, but generally not sustainable. We established, and closed at, the lows of the day in the last 19 minutes after touching the high of the day in the prior three minutes. The "buys" percentage dropped 10.62% from the prior reading.

    I said "On this pop the buy percentage did not jump as high as I might have expected, based on jumps seen in the past when catalytic events caused some price appreciation" and "The fact that on just the second day of the pop we have volume reducing with a narrowing price spread and my non-conventional indicators suggesting weakness doesn't bode well, I think, for more move up".

    On today, the third day of the pop, volume was down another 9.88%. From the first day's volume we're down 21.31%. This is normal three-day, or so, pop behavior and leaves this metric on track to meet my expectations. Price spread went back up to 17.39%. The volatility in this is also normal. Almost the same as yesterday, price held up well until very late in the day. We never went below $0.12 prior to 15:56:49, and had been as high as $0.1350 and VWAP was $0.126, which would have been a small improvement from the two prior $0.1106 and $0.1246. We still ended with an improvement ($0.1258).

    But the last six minutes had a VWAP of $0.1171 on 46K shares, we set the low for the day and closed 1/100th of a penny above it. This is quite similar to what happened yesterday. Also somewhat similar was setting the day's high late, although not as late, in the day. We hit the $0.1350 price at 15:06 and 15:13 on trades of 20K and 1,064 shares respectively. Also similar was getting some high prices early - we had $0.1347 in the first three trades, totaling 6,208 shares. Yesterday we made the day's high of $0.13 on three trades totaling 12K shares through 09:48.

    Yesterday I touched a bit on the TA stuff because "It seems appropriate for the moment because I've been suggesting that we could expect a few days of pop and the weight of the PIPErs would then start to exert itself again".

    The descending trend line I touched upon seems to be in play - intra-day we moved above it and closed below it. It is very close to the 50-day SMA, $0.1291 at EOD today. I had also mentioned that we had not been able to make intra-day penetrations above the 50-day SMA more than a couple days since PIPE was done. Today is one day and we made it intra-day and retreated well below it for the close.

    RSI has changed from "... which way to go next" to weakening, now at 43.26, down from Friday's 48.09.

    Stochastic, Williams %R and ADX related are still showing positive signs although the ADX seems to have begun to flatten out.

    So we still have mixed oscillators and reducing volume..

    Looking a couple of non-traditional items, I've addressed the daily short sales above.

    I had mentioned that the buy percentage did not jump as high as I might have expected, based on jumps seen in the past when catalytic events caused some price appreciation. The "buys" percentage, which dropped 10.62% yesterday, continues to weaken: 48.2%, 43.1% and today 36.3%, down another 15.9%.

    Posing the question of who gets first exhausted, - buyers or sellers, my bet was buyers. From what I'm seeing, it looks like I'll win this round sans another important PR soon.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    10/14: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1200, x 85%: $0.1020

    Vol, in K, for above days: 2,088.88.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.

    10/11/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 261, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 65000, Vol: 2317847, AvTrSz: 8881
    Min. Pr: 0.1200, Max Pr: 0.1300, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1246
    # Buys, Shares: 118 999507, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1266
    # Sells, Shares: 136 1283340, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1229
    # Unkn, Shares: 7 35000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1257
    Buy:Sell 1:1.28 (43.1% "buys"), DlyShts 681882 (29.42%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 53.13%

    For all the below commentary, keep in mind that Fridays often behave differently than other weekdays and Monday or Tuesday may present a different picture. Monday, being a federal holiday may not be so likely to do so though.

    On the second day of the pop, apparently created by PR, we still had good volume, but down 12.69% from yesterday's ~2.655MM shares. Some of this volume may have been support from a re-publication of the PR in The Wall Street Journal, but there's no way to know. I do consider it significant that volume was substantially lower, and the price spread was compressed to a still-disturbing (to me) 8.33% from yesterdays outrageous ~26%. Of course, this is normal "pop" stuff, but generally not sustainable.

    ARCA graced us with their presence on the sell side starting at 9:46 today. They were in and out a few times before coming back permanently at 10:54. BTIG, NITE, PERT, ATDF (of course) and CANT, all took turns at trying to have the lowest offers at various times, quite steadily overall. In the last half-hour, it was ARCA, BNCH and CANT dominating.

    We established, and closed at, the lows of the day in the last 19 minutes after touching the high of the day in the prior three minutes.

    I'm going to make a foray here, because it may be significant, into something I've been avoiding for a while - a little traditional TA. It seems appropriate for the moment because I've been suggesting that we could expect a few days of pop and the weight of the PIPErs would then start to exert itself again.

    I have a descending trend line originating at the high of 8/1 with touches at the highs of 8/21 (and almost 8/20) and now the high of today, 10/11. An origin and two touches makes a trend a more likely potential point of resistance.

    Maybe more importantly, the 50-day SMA is $0.1302. Check today's high. We've not been able to get above it, intra-day, more than two consecutive days since the 7 of 8 days with some movement above it 5/23 - 6/4, shortly after the PIPE deal was known.

    RSI left the oversold territory, where it was Wednesday, and came back to territory which says "Uh, I don't know - which way you want to go now?". It sits at 48.09 using a 14-day window. MFI is in a similar boat at ~46 with momentum adding the same view at 0.9909. Accumulation/distribution, on a one-year chart, dipped from yesterday's (22.9423) to (25.2601), a ~9% drop.

    Stochastic, Williams %R and ADX related are showing positive signs.

    So we have mixed oscillators on reducing volume and narrowing price spread on the second day of the "pop".

    Looking a couple of non-traditional items, the daily short sales are acting as I suggested and today they came off the peak, 31.58%, of their recent predicted up-move. If the pattern I've noticed repeats again the daily shorts sales will continue down again to absurdly low levels. This sort of decline has been mostly accompanied by price deterioration (check my charts for a better feel for this).

    The "buys" percentage dropped 10.62% from yesterday's reading, somewhat paralleling the one-year chart's accumulation/distribution oscillator. The calculated trend lines on my ~10-month price chart have an 89% correlation on the high, low and VWAP and have been in that state for quite some time now.

    On this pop the buy percentage did not jump as high as I might have expected, based on jumps seen in the past when catalytic events caused some price appreciation. Initially I think this is mostly a PIPEr effect - they have (apparently) been heavily selling ever since the PIPE deal was struck and I can't imagine that they would reduce selling into a rising price caused by a short-term news event. If they are just running the numbers and have no plan to accumulate, I think it'll continue to be sell, sell, sell.

    I previously posed the question of who would get exhausted first - buyers or sellers. My bet was buyers as the PIPErs have, essentially, an unlimited number of shares available and benefit the more price drops. The buyers may look at the charts and decide they can safely await a pullback to $0.10 or less with little risk of missing the upside.

    Today's action may be indicative of that as well as PIPEr action.

    The fact that on just the second day of the pop we have volume reducing with a narrowing price spread and my non-conventional indicators suggesting weakness doesn't bode well, I think, for more move up.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    10/07: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1235, x 85%: $0.1049
    10/08: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1224, x 85%: $0.1040
    10/09: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1211, x 85%: $0.1030
    10/10: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1202, x 85%: $0.1022
    10/11: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1200, x 85%: $0.1020

    Vol, in K, for above days: 557.66, 927.51, 505.80, 2,654.60, 2,317.85.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.

    10/10/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 326, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 2654600, AvTrSz: 8143
    Min. Pr: 0.1000, Max Pr: 0.1260, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1106
    # Buys, Shares: 150 1280793, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1122
    # Sells, Shares: 173 1358807, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1092
    # Unkn, Shares: 3 15000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1105
    Buy:Sell 1:1.06 (48.2% "buys"), DlyShts 838193 (31.58%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 61.69%

    Some positive news apparently moved share price up today. Another affirmation, IMO, of the success and viability of the PbC for Norfolk Southern's NS-999 is strongly implied in "Update Report On Hybrid Norfolk Southern Switcher Locomotive To Be Presented At 7th Annual ASME Rail Conference".

    This is pretty good news, but not, I think, the "big news" needed to sustain an upward trend in share price over time in the face of the PIPE "financiers'" activity unless they suddenly decide to switch modes and focus on accumulating a long position. From what we've seen and also learned from John Petersen, I can't see this as likely. The actual roll-out of NS-999 and attendant publicity might be enough to support a sustained upward trend, but I believe some good actual additional sales of scale are what is needed.

    Early in the day I commented that I thought today's short sales would come out of the pit. The daily short sales jumped to 31.58% from yesterday's 6.92%. I believe a good portion of this was due to folks taking the opportunity to reduce paper losses or lock in profits as share price rose. With the "buys" (hitting the ask) being stronger than usual today I believe that's where most of the shorts came from. This because when "buys" have been low and "sells" (hitting the bid) have been high, the daily short sales have generally been low. If our assessment that this long trend of "sells" is related to the "financiers" behavior, that implies the mechanics of the "financiers'" selling does not cause high daily short sales. That suggests most of today's short sales were not related to the PIPErs.

    This leaves us with the unpleasant scenario suggested by answering the question "Who gets exhausted first - buyers or sellers"?

    For me the answer is, unfortunately, buyers.

    This sort of news is generally good for a few days pop, at most. When the pop is done, the PIPErs will still be here with the new-issue and true-up shares coming into their control in the (now) low $0.10 range. Shortly, regardless of any share price increase in the next twenty days, they will get additional shares at no more than this price. Further, it is highly likely, IMO, that they will shortly be getting prices in the 9 cent area as new daily VWAPs below $0.12 and $0.11 are injected into the 20-day window. To avoid this it looks like we need VWAPs to stay at or above ~$0.125. Guarantee of not dropping further would be only if we maintain $0.1285 or better, as that's the price getting ready to fall out of the 20-day window and be replaced with a lower VWAP.

    Even with today's good news and high volume, we did a VWAP of $0.1106.

    Price spread was 26% today, but I think I'll forgo complaining about it. After all, at least VWAP was up even though not likely sustainable as a trend.

    ARCA behaved strangely today, even before the run-up started. Please ignore the misspelling of "weird" in this comment. seekingalpha.com/instablog/1631091-axion...-24278772

    I mentioned yesterday the 10, 25 and 50-day averages of buy percentage were all below the bottom of a range I consider normal, ~30% and the 100-day average was dropping too, although still in the normal range. We'll need to see the buy percentage stay at 30% or greater for an extended period to see the averages move back into normal range, and more importantly, offset the PIPErs effect that I expect will still be here for some time.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    10/07: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1235, x 85%: $0.1049
    10/08: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1224, x 85%: $0.1040
    10/09: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1211, x 85%: $0.1030
    10/10: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1202, x 85%: $0.1022

    Vol, in K, for above days: 557.66, 927.51, 505.80, 2,654.60.

    It's become apparent that my inflection points serve little purpose in this environment. I'll forgo any further discussion of them until such time as they may be come useful ... many months from now I guess, or I see something exceptional that might be of use.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.

    10/09/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 95, MinTrSz: 250, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol: 505800, AvTrSz: 5324
    Min. Pr: 0.1002, Max Pr: 0.1075, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1039
    # Buys, Shares: 19 82640, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1055
    # Sells, Shares: 76 423160, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1035
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:5.12 (16.3% "buys"), DlyShts 25310 (5.00%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 5.98%

    The daily short sales dropped even further from yesterday's 6.92%. I'm starting to wonder if we'll see another one of those rare zero-short days. Just for yuks, I'll say not this next couple of weeks because zero is such a rare occurrence. Might get even closer though. Normal would be to start another leg up in the next day or two.

    Price spread still pretty large at ~7.3%.

    ARCA arrived at 12:16 today. Prior to that our VWAP was OK ($0.1056) and the buy:sell wasn't bad at 1:1.69 (37.2% "buys"). From then to the end of the day the buy:sell deteriorated to 1:8.13 (11% "buys") and VWAP went to $0.1034. Doesn't sound like much of a change but it's a 2.15% intra-day drop. Typical, typical I guess. I've not been measuring that normally.

    The 10, 25 and 50-day averages of buy percentage, 21%, 25% and 29% are all below the bottom of a range I consider normal, ~30%. The 100-day average is now 35% and dropping too. After the drop that began in January ended the averages had recovered nicely until they topped, except the 100-day which kept the steady trend down going, just before the week of 6/3, when the latest long trend down began in the three shorter periods.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    10/07: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1235, x 85%: $0.1049
    10/08: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1224, x 85%: $0.1040
    10/09: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1211, x 85%: $0.1030

    Vol, in K, for above days: 557.66, 927.51, 505.80.

    It's become apparent that my inflection points serve little purpose in this environment. I'll forgo any further discussion of them until such time as they may be come useful ... many months from now I guess, or I see something exceptional that might be of use.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    10/08/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 111, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 60000, Vol: 927512, AvTrSz: 8356
    Min. Pr: 0.1000, Max Pr: 0.1193, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1092
    # Buys, Shares: 24 171264, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1106
    # Sells, Shares: 85 746248, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1089
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1095
    Buy:Sell 1:4.36 (18.5% "buys"), DlyShts 64165 (6.92%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 8.60%

    The daily short sales continues as predicted, dropping further from yesterday's 11.94%. As has been common, pps also dropped again. If not for the "buying spree" triggered by the price in the mud, our buy:sell would have ended horridly too - through 14:26:56 buy:sell was 1:28.78 (3.4% "buys"). We were lucky to end up with a buy:sell where it ended and it ain't great either. 3.4% would've been my third lowest since tracking began in February 2012.

    Price spread was excessive today, ~19.3%. As usual we did OK until ARCA arrived at 10:44. The usual walk down began immediately and the price plunge kicked in at 14:45. A real "blood in the streets" event I think. Unfortunately, we can't gauge it in the usual fashion because the blood we saw might be predominantly PIPErs' shares rather than investors'. If so, the blood-letting may be just getting started as they may have millions of shares left to dump yet. They've shown no inclination to buy and/or support price in any way. Thus far my early scenario of unrelenting selling and price pressure seems to be holding sway.

    I hope TG is checking to see if these "financiers" are honoring the 15% of daily volume selling limit. If he's not checking, he's sorely remiss in the deal *again*.

    IIRC, regardless of what's shown in the calculated 20-day 85% prices, if today were the last day before share issue, the shares would be issued at 85% of today's VWAP, or $0.0928, 4.37% lower than yesterday's $0.0969. The progression around 1/2% a day stays on track here as well as in the 20-day out of 40 VWAP calculations.

    Among other things I said yesterday was "Based on the observed behavior to-date, we could anticipate prices in the market to be no better than somewhere in the $0.10xx range before the news moves price, if it does". I really didn't expect it this soon.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    10/07: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1235, x 85%: $0.1049
    10/08: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1224, x 85%: $0.1040

    Vol, in K, for above days: 557.66, 927.51.

    It's become apparent that my inflection points serve little purpose in this environment. I'll forgo any further discussion of them until such time as they may be come useful ... many months from now I guess, or I see something exceptional that might be of use.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    10/07/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 82, MinTrSz: 230, MaxTrSz: 30500, Vol: 557660, AvTrSz: 6801
    Min. Pr: 0.1130, Max Pr: 0.1173, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1140
    # Buys, Shares: 24 168360, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1149
    # Sells, Shares: 58 389300, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1136
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.31 (30.2% "buys"), DlyShts 66600 (11.94%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 17.11%

    The daily short sales acted as predicted when I mentioned yesterday it looked like it hit the short-term top and would reverse now. This is part of the pattern we've seen since the PIPErs got control of our shares. It will break this pattern somewhere along the line - I'm not sure how to predict it.

    Price spread was reasonable today, ~3.8%. ARCA showed up around 10:45 and had the predictable effect. They were aided by strong competition at various times from ATDF, NITE and PERT, briefly. We closed at $0.1131, 1/100th of a penny above the day's low.

    Buy percentage improved from yesterday's 20.5% as is normal as price drops. Again, I don't see an improving trend in that for a while. Bouncing up and down should continue to be the M.O.

    IIRC, regardless of what's shown in the calculated 20-day 85% prices, if today were the last day before share issue, the shares would be issued at 85% of today's VWAP, or $0.0969.

    Moreover, if the decline of the calculated 20-day lowest VWAP continues at ~1/2% per day until the "big news" appears in, say, 6 weeks (approximately 30 trading days), the calculated 85% price then would be ~$0.0903. Based on the observed behavior to-date, we could anticipate prices in the market to be no better than somewhere in the $0.10xx range before the news moves price, if it does.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    10/07: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1235, x 85%: $0.1049

    Vol, in K, for above days: 557.66.

    It's become apparent that my inflection points serve little purpose in this environment. I'll forgo any further discussion of them until such time as they may be come useful ... many months from now I guess, or I see something exceptional that might be of use.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.

    10/04/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 93, MinTrSz: 800, MaxTrSz: 37760, Vol: 643987, AvTrSz: 6925
    Min. Pr: 0.1150, Max Pr: 0.1175, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1155
    # Buys, Shares: 20 131787, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1164
    # Sells, Shares: 73 512200, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1153
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:3.89 (20.5% "buys"), DlyShts 100787 (15.65%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 19.68%

    The daily short sales moved a bit more and is nearing the point where it should start to top and then reverse to continue it's oscillation at low levels.

    Price spread narrowed again, ~2.2%, reflecting ARCA joining in at 11:04. ARCA: = guaranteed downer.

    Buy percentage lower and struggling as always under the PIPEr pressure.

    Repeating yesterday's sentiment: "I feel strongly this is the start of the extended period of trading below $0.12 that I forecast ...".

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    09/30: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1268, x 85%: $0.1078
    10/01: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1262, x 85%: $0.1073
    10/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1256, x 85%: $0.1068
    10/03: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1250, x 85%: $0.1063
    10/04: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1243, x 85%: $0.1056

    Vol, in K, for above days: 585.80, 1,317.67, 619.47, 1239.01, 643.99.

    It's become apparent that my inflection points serve little purpose in this environment. I'll forgo any further discussion of them until such time as they may be come useful ... many months from now I guess, or I see something exceptional that might be of use.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are are in the latest daily post above.

    10/03/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 330, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 112500, Vol: 1239008, AvTrSz: 3755
    Min. Pr: 0.1150, Max Pr: 0.1217, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1194
    # Buys, Shares: 37 397190, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1196
    # Sells, Shares: 85 839618, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1193
    # Unkn, Shares: 208 2200, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1189
    Buy:Sell 1:2.11 (32.1% "buys"), DlyShts 149800 (12.09%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 17.84%

    The daily short sales moved a little, but not enough to break the pattern. Needs to make and sustain a move over 30%, preferably centered around 35% or so.

    Price spread of 5.83% reflects what was seen as soon as ARCA joined the selling side - an immediate drop in the trading range.

    Buy percentage did better today, improving to 21.2%. This is typical as price drops and I don't know we can read any indication of a higher price on the near-term horizon from it.

    Prior to around 10:30 ARCA wasn't around and we traded mostly $0.1216 or so. Sometime after that ARCA joined the fray and when I finally had a peek at the asks at 11:11 ARCA was at the top of the stack with an $0.1195 offer. We had already traded as low as $0.1180 before then. Trading recovered for a bit to $0.1202 by 12:55 but the damage had been done. Trading range deteriorated from then forward and by 14:17 we had already touched $0.1160. By 14:30 $0.1150. From then to the close that was the range.

    I feel strongly this is the start of the extended period of trading below $0.12 that I forecast. Not that I'm prescient, but the numbers tell a clear story when combined with the contents of the PIPE financing deal.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    09/30: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1268, x 85%: $0.1078
    10/01: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1262, x 85%: $0.1073
    10/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1256, x 85%: $0.1068
    10/03: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1250, x 85%: $0.1063

    Vol, in K, for above days: 585.80, 1,317.67, 619.47, 1239.01.

    It's become apparent that my inflection points serve little purpose in this environment. I'll forgo any further discussion of them until such time as they may be come useful ... many months from now I guess, or I see something exceptional that might be of use.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    10/02/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 82, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol: 619474, AvTrSz: 7555
    Min. Pr: 0.1200, Max Pr: 0.1205, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1200
    # Buys, Shares: 15 64667, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1204
    # Sells, Shares: 67 554807, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1200
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:8.58 (10.4% "buys"), DlyShts 38312 (6.18%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 6.91%

    No change in the daily short sales pattern - remaining in the sewer.

    Price spread, at 5/100ths of a penny (0.42%), is now ridiculous.

    Buy percentage makes another new 8th lowest since I've been tracking.

    ARCA, strangely, was on the bid from the open, but not aggressively. They snuggled up with CDEL and BTIG with a bid of $0.119x10K when the best was $0.12 until around 10:30 when it went to $0.1201. Wowzer! Such aggressiveness makes my head spin!

    ARCA appeared on the top of the ask at 12:02 and from then on we traded 576.42K shares at a VWAP of $0.12. Price never got above $0.1203 and the buy percentage during that period was 6.44%. Say "Hit the bid" quickly 5 times.

    Prior to that, admittedly on small volume, we had a buy percentage of 64% with a VWAP of $0.1204.

    I'm about ready to deem ARCA a party pooper!

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    09/30: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1268, x 85%: $0.1078
    10/01: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1262, x 85%: $0.1073
    10/02: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1256, x 85%: $0.1068

    Vol, in K, for above days: 585.80, 1,317.67, 619.47.

    It's become apparent that my inflection points serve little purpose in this environment. I'll forgo any further discussion of them until such time as they may be come useful ... many months from now I guess, or I see something exceptional that might be of use.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.

    10/01/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 125, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 298146, Vol: 1317672, AvTrSz: 10541
    Min. Pr: 0.1200, Max Pr: 0.1228, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1202
    # Buys, Shares: 13 141272, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1207
    # Sells, Shares: 112 1176400, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1201# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000Buy:Sell 1:8.33 (10.7% "buys"), DlyShts 75394 (5.72%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 6.41%

    There was a block trade of 298,146 shares at $0.12 at 15:46:19. It was a "sell". I suspect some "good customer" of some market-maker was accommodated with that trade. Two more trades, 10K and 42.5K that may be related, occurred within then next two minutes at the same price. If they are related, that totaled ~350K in that few minutes. There's another 10K trade at that price in close proximity that might be related, but it was not close enough for me to feel that was a strong likelihood it was related.

    No change in the daily short sales pattern - continued low levels. There was one pre-market trade of 10K that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,307,672 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 5.77% to my 5.72%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 75,394 to 85,394 and the short percentage would be 6.48%.

    Price spread, at 2.33%, is now at more reasonable levels.

    ARCA made its entry at 11:37 and immediately took the ask from $0.1219 to $0.121. They and NITE took it to $0.1205 at 12:12, BTIG joined them (can't fight 'em, join 'em I guess) at 12:20, ARCA broke away to $0.1201 at 12:25 and came back to the $0.1205 fold at 12:53. At 13:15 ARCA went to $0.1202 and then back to $0.1205 at 13:43 and then $0.1201 at 14:50. Note that all moves, AFAICT, below $0.1205 by ARCA where solo - no other MM joined them. I don't know what their game might have been.

    Anyway, price never recovered from ARCA's appearance and we closed at $0.12.

    This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
    09/30: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1268, x 85%: $0.1078
    10/01: 20 lowest intra-day VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1262, x 85%: $0.1073

    Vol, in K, for above days: 585.80, 1,317.67.

    It's become apparent that my inflection points serve little purpose in this environment. I'll forgo any further discussion of them until such time as they may be come useful ... many months from now I guess, or I see something exceptional that might be of use.

    Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points are in the latest daily post above.

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

    Additional disclosure: I am very experimental and sometimes do my TA in non-traditional fashions. Keep this in mind when considering anything I post and be sure and consult other sources and do your due diligence. I'm barely responsible for myself and certainly not responsible for anyone else or their actions. :-)

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Comments (22)
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  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8852) | Send Message
     
    HTL, As always thanks for your efforts. Glad to see you have your puter issues behind you.

     

    "ARCA made it's entry point at 11:37 and immediately took the ask from .1219 to .21..."

     

    Dyslexia?

     

    I think ARCA is mostly retail or am I all wet?

     

    It is interesting the number of shares trading at .120x. How much longer?
    2 Oct 2013, 10:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » iindelco: Thanks.

     

    The $.21 was supposed to be $0.121. Tired, I guess, and rushing.

     

    ARCA exchange is owned by NYSE.

     

    We seldom saw them in AXPW prior to the PIPE deal. The few times they did appear they would contest with ATDF for top spot on the bid side IIRC. When the PIPE deal happened ARCA became a regular and aggressive participant on the ask side and almost always tries to undercut the other sellers.

     

    Being part of NYSE and having the aggressive offer behavior on the sell side beginning around the PIPE time makes me strongly suspect PIPErs have accounts that trade through the ARCA exchange and are the cause of the behavior we see. I've seen evidence of any restraint only infrequently.

     

    The apparent willingness to always sell at any price below any other offers regardless of what the market *might* be trading at makes me think they must have shares obtained at below-market prices and/or know they will have more shares coming to them for less than they are selling for - they new 85% price.

     

    In many ways it's like an aggressive shorter - they more you short the more the price is forced down and the cheaper you can cover at. A positive feedback loop.

     

    We'll never know, of course, but that's my best SWAG that makes me think it's almost "all PIPEers all the time".

     

    BTW, since the PIPE deal, ARCA has appeared on the bid side just a few times and usually far below the current bid.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    3 Oct 2013, 05:45 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco
    , contributor
    Comments (8852) | Send Message
     
    Thanks HTL! You're the best!
    3 Oct 2013, 07:25 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    "Repeating patterns" us a good find, HTL. News would disrupt it.
    19 Oct 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » D-Inv: Well, that's what I'm hoping. I consider the recent presentation "news", although not "big news", and am hoping it's enough to break the pattern.

     

    But the recent sag off it's "pop" has me worried it's not enough - and I really didn't think it was, just more hopium on my part.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Oct 2013, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    I have been a bit amazed at the breadth and depth of reaction to the PR. Suggests to me that skepticism regarding continuing Norfolk Southern interest in electric and hybrid electric locomotives was high and rising.
    19 Oct 2013, 09:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » D-inv: "... skepticism regarding continuing Norfolk Southern interest in electric and hybrid electric locomotives was high and rising".

     

    Trying, still, to be a bit more optimistic, I prefer to think it was "we believe mostly, but *when* is the question". If folks were just being cautious awaiting some sign that the time was near, this may have been that sign.

     

    I read the presentation as "we've got it nailed down now and can go public with near-zero risk".

     

    Still leaves the "when" undefined, but maybe moves it from "someday" to "someday soon". Combined with their report stating Q4 of 13, "someday sooner"? Add Vani's late Oct or early Nov. (if one believes) and we have "soon now".

     

    It also carries another implication I think. Implying the switcher is a success now in NSC's view, the OTR effort seems more assured to be undertaken. It has its own "when" associated with it though. Regardless, that suggests around a 2K (can't recall that number) battery order somewhere down the road, although I do believe it's quite a ways out from here.

     

    Another thought about the market response involves the "certification" by a well-respected organization. If the PR is viewed somewhat as I'm thinking, it implies a robust battery able to withstand huge amounts of the most serious kind of abuse. It may be only simulated abuse thus far, but testing by good minds from three separate organizations offers a probability that is the case.

     

    That should mean that very long lifetimes should be easily achievable in less-demanding applications. As you know, the stationary applications in grids have a significant cost component related to storage lifetime and potential maintenance (I include any supporting system components in here) requirements.

     

    With long life and near-zero maintenance expected, we have an early suggestion that "reality" may include some of these areas in our addressable market.

     

    'Course the naval net-zero building gave an early hint that may have been the case, but it doesn't see the abuse that the locomotive dishes out.

     

    I suspect the reprint of the article in two places, one being the WSJ, had an effect as well. That carries some weight.

     

    Add in fear and greed ... "Crap this thing might run away from me - look how unexpected news comes out" and "this thing's going to rocket - I'll load up the truck while it's still cheap".

     

    Neither of these groups likely have looked at the PIPE agreement. Both these groups will shortly get schooled I think. Some percentage will react to that schooling. The PIPErs will help exaggerate that reaction.

     

    I've scrounged up a little more dry powder in preparation(-H). ;-))

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    20 Oct 2013, 06:57 AM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (422) | Send Message
     
    HTL, thanx for your time and effort. Greatly appreciated. I agree with your comment about the reprint. I had a 14,000 GTC buy order in at .0801 for about three weeks just in case there was a bad day. But after all the articles about NS and the stock price and volume surge I cancelled that order and watched....and waited...and waited, and now I'm pissed I didn't buy at .10xx :) Greed and Fear. It can still get me on this stock. I have been avg down for five years now and I have never felt as anxious about this company as I do now.

     

    I always felt AXPW would be successful but the PIPE deal did rock me a bit. Then when the annalist (name escapes me) wrote the price could hit .06 I was counting how many more 10s of Ks of shares I would buy.

     

    I feel the news that TG mentioned is going to be a large California deal. I also think it will be after Oct because in this month the market has taken some big dives. Why put out good news and have it taken away by a market crash. Also the vote in CA had to be officially counted. I say the 4th of November.
    I need .247 to break even and will continue to buy way past that price.

     

    Glad to see you got your machine put back together.
    20 Oct 2013, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Masi: My time and effort is a pittance compared to what other folks contribute. But I appreciate the thanks - never really sure I'm helping many folks.

     

    "I have been avg down for five years now and I have never felt as anxious about this company as I do now".

     

    This is one thing I am not worried about. Generally the majority of the ill-effects fall to us with much less of an impact on the company's prospects for success, IMO.

     

    I don't rant often, but I did one after beginning to comprehend the ramifications of this PIPE deal because I knew the effect it would have on us, our psyches and the ability to see price appreciation rise to the level it deserved with the additional shares, warrants and convertibles.

     

    Somewhat related, I also ranted when TG disclosed in the Q report about BMW hooking them up with a tier 1 supplier. I felt he was remiss in not putting that out sooner because it could have helped maintain share price and, in retrospect, realized that better terms might have been obtained on the PIPE if that BMW-related stuff had been put out early enough to allow some appreciation before the PIPE deal got inked.

     

    Might have gotten a deal that wasn't PIPE? Don't know.

     

    Anyway, I don't worry for the company's success, just us long-suffering types that have to rely on future gains and now see the potential gains/share being constantly tamped down by this PIPE deal when some percentage of it may have been avoided.

     

    One "annalist" was Tom Konrad.

     

    California would surprise me because they currently have their air resources board trying to shut down Exide's LA recycling. I suspect they are strongly anti-lead out there for now. 'Course, that could be overcome by the recent mandates for the utilities to acquire a fixed amount of storage and those will be (mostly?) economic decisions by the individual entities. But that requirement just got finalized and issued so I think it's too soon for Axion to get anything other than inquisitive nibbles from them.

     

    I like what the folks thinking islands have as a good possibility. Their situations are more economically (w/rgd to electricty cost) dire and they have large renewables generation already going on, so some kind of storage provides immediate benefit w/o the Left Coast bias coming into play.

     

    The simplicity of self-balancing strings w/o needing a lot of other equipment for cooling, cell/string balancing, ... has got to be attractive too as I suspect high-tech experienced personnel, part supplies, ... are not available in quantity. Add in shipping costs and the old "low-tech beats high-tech" may be an advantage in the islands.

     

    And one thing we should have, regardless of everything else, when you add it all up is a cost advantage - another important consideration in those locales.

     

    As to a date, IIRC he said "next cc" or similar? I'm betting not a moment before and maybe not even then. Based on the past, everything takes longer and I suspect we get "awaiting final signatures" or something similar.

     

    Like I complained in one of my EOD's I think Axion has turned me into a perma-bear. Not on the company though, just on anything good happening when it looks like it is or ought to be happening.

     

    So now when I do my EOD stuff I have to fight a bias opposite of what I used to have to fight to try and get what I hope is a fair and useful bunch of thoughts together.

     

    BTW, don't forget to drop into the concentrators - lots of useful stuff there and your thoughts and questions, if any, will be very welcome I'm sure.

     

    HardToLove
    20 Oct 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (3932) | Send Message
     
    "I read the presentation as "we've got it nailed down now and can go public with near-zero risk".

     

    Still leaves the "when" undefined, but maybe moves it from "someday" to "someday soon". Combined with their report stating Q4 of 13, "someday sooner"? Add Vani's late Oct or early Nov. (if one believes) and we have "soon now"."

     

    :-) I read the presentation (labeled a progress report) as "we are making progress but not there yet."

     

    IMO, Axion management is clueless as to whether or when NSC will move beyond where things stand now. TG said in a CC earlier this year the NS999 would be completed "this Summer." Dantam said at one point earlier that we would see the locomotive in late September or early October. Anything they have to say about Norfolk Southern projects I take as PR spin.

     

    Like your thoughts re- WSJ reprint and "certification". Also think hiring of the new CFO could have been interpreted by the market as a big positive.
    20 Oct 2013, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Masi
    , contributor
    Comments (422) | Send Message
     
    D, I believe the games going on in Washington have played a role in the delays with NS. Politicians don't like to look bad and I'm sure a few have their hands in the pockets of this RR.
    20 Oct 2013, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    hey so about inflection calculations, what are you trying to quantify? for me they were originally about watching an imaginary wheel turning right or left from center and trying to predict when that turn would start going the other direction. this is accomplished by noting when the hand (buy/sell) starts pulling the other way.

     

    for me it is important to know what an equation is supposed to do so when i make changes they effect that goal the way i intend.

     

    with that goal, an equation would be needed that concerned itself with the strength of the hands pulling the wheel, do you think that is quantifiable? i think it's useful 'cause you start pulling the wheel well before you stop going a particular direction. i do see that drivers are "flakes" most of the time. but with volume at current averages in last 30 days, i think this approace is better not worse (to spite expectations of news/pipe and the like) compared to traditional TA.
    20 Oct 2013, 11:29 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    also NFL. what a week.
    20 Oct 2013, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hi Mathieu!

     

    Basically what you describe is what I'm trying to quantify.

     

    Sentiment can't be directly measured, but the effects of it may be amendable to being quantified. So the first thing I thought might detect sentiment was the ratio of "buys" (hitting the offer) to "sells" (hitting the bids). As you may recall, using just that made a rather "flaky" (volatile) result though.

     

    So I later added some other stuff in that attempted to remove the flakiness.

     

    Those factors seemed to have helped and made the indications less flaky. I've identified some other things I can add to the mix that *may* further improve the reliability of the results produced, but haven't yet tried to add them in.

     

    HardToLove
    21 Oct 2013, 05:08 AM Reply Like
  • Stilldazed
    , contributor
    Comments (2097) | Send Message
     
    Hi HTL,
    First off, thanks for all your hard work and making it available to us.
    I have to say that I only understand a very small amount of what you put up, but understand roughly what you are trying to do.

     

    I am still amazed at the daily volume numbers recently and the fact that there are enough buyers to basically maintain the share value.

     

    To me it means that somebody of a fairly large size has joined with retail investors to help plug the dam the pipers have opened.
    23 Oct 2013, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Stilldazed: I'm trying to make it more useful without sticking my neck out too far (beheading can be messy I think), >8-O

     

    As to somebody joining, I suspect some of it is folks from the likes of the WSJ, some are momentum traders (might be a lot of these?) and some are really long-term retail types.

     

    I commented to someone, somewhere, these new folks are about to get schooled in "PIPEs".

     

    I truly believe that the numbers I crunch are not lying to us.

     

    The real risk is that I misinterpret them because of all the unknowns: who's buying, who's selling, why, ...

     

    All the stuff behind the curtain is daunting to me.

     

    But I have faith and have stashed some dry powder for what I believe will be an opportune moment.

     

    The big risk for me is proper identification of that moment. Also, upside risk from TG actually getting unexpected PR out and delivering on his words.

     

    I can't tell you how hard it was to sit here and watch a 30%+ rise from the low and *not* pull the trigger.

     

    Meanwhile I'm trying to use some of the powder to make more dry powder.

     

    HardToLove
    23 Oct 2013, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • Mathieu Malecot
    , contributor
    Comments (966) | Send Message
     
    That's what the numbers are for HTL: help us ignore our emotions, exposeour assumptions and put them to the test. I have a buy order in at triplebacks last buy price, we'll see if waiting is the right move eventually.
    23 Oct 2013, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1506) | Send Message
     
    I have many more shares than I planned on purchasing. If the expected November order(s) come in and are significant, I am planning to purchase more.
    24 Oct 2013, 06:14 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Mathieu: Yep - I can't tell you how many times I was saying to myself "Believe the numbers". Otherwise, what's the effort worth? Nada!

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2013, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Metro: I'm hoping to have more than I originally planned too.

     

    I must be a masochist, no? ;-))

     

    HardToLove
    24 Oct 2013, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1506) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    It's just this little revenue thing that holds me back.
    24 Oct 2013, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17304) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well, took the hatchet to the new blog in an effort to reduce load times and scrolling. Hope it helps as much as I think.

     

    The primary way was to drop some stuff from the header that had been there long enough and just provide a ling to the 10/01/2013 edition for older stuff. The same was done for some of the daily updated stuff. These are detailed in the paragraph just after the chart stuff, before the top daily entry.

     

    Here 'tis!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    2 Nov 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
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