Full index of posts »
StockTalks

AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 12/01/2014 $AXPW http://seekingalpha.com/p/237ad Nov 29, 2014

(UQM) Short Interest Table $UQM http://seekingalpha.com/p/233uh Nov 27, 2014

Because This Is The Only Way I Can Get Charts Into My Real Blogs ... $AXPW http://seekingalpha.com/p/22tij Nov 22, 2014
Latest Comments
 H. T. Love on A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 7/25/2016 Amended 10K filed.==================This Form ...
 D Lane on A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 7/25/2016 My thanks too HTL! I appreciate your efforts to...
 H. T. Love on A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 CN: Not necessarily!If we equip the drive wheel...
 Crunching Numbers on A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 7/25/2016 HTLAbsolutely no need to apologize for being a...
 H. T. Love on A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 New issue of the blog, with apologies to D.G. f...
 Crunching Numbers on A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 Wow, those buses will need a very long hose! ;)
Most Commented
 A speculative play on UQM ( Comments)
 A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 ( Comments)
 Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator Nov 4, 2015 ( Comments)
 AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting ( Comments)
 AXPW Daily Short Sales, Price And Volume ( Comments)
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 12/1/2013 12 comments
We are still suffering the PIPE effects and I still feel that my experimental stuff, which had normal markets in mind, is not as useful for now. The data and calculations may be useful in detecting when normalcy begins to return and also provide a template of possible effects of other PIPE financing deals for other folks down the road. So I'm still capturing the data and updating the charts.
To help keep the instablog shorter, I truncate some of the historical metrics, but keep enough here to hopefully keep the context clear and helpful.
Discussions related to the PIPE financing, and links, should be reviewed by those unfamiliar with them. To reduce load time and required scrolling, I've now eliminated them here as they've been up for a long time. Those can still be found in the header of AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 10/1/2013.
A discussion of some daily short sales, and related, is also contained in that header.
I've been manually collecting this data for about 21 months now while volume was low and it was therefore reasonable to do so. I'll stop when it gets too arduous unless I can craft a mechanized capture of most of the stuff.
I've captured enough data now that I can reasonably expect to be able to detect patterns on the charts that may signal, somewhat reliably, when price moves are about to occur. To help more easily identify any useful patterns, I've made an instablog, Axion Power International, AXPW, 2/13/2012 And Forward One Year Experimental Charts Snapshots. I've also added some lines to them that may assist in this. For anybody with an interest, I welcome any suggestions and/or help.
I'll update this instablog daily as long as I can for anybody that might find it useful. The charts will stay near the top and the text updates detailing daily data and expressing my most recent thoughts will follow after the charts.
I've arranged the chart segments in this instablog to put what I think are related stuff close together.
This is the sixteenth installment of the original "AXPW: Some IntraDay Trade Charting" instablogs I've started doing on Seeking Alpha. The others grew, as I added daily commentary and FINRA data, to the point I was afraid the load time might become an irritant for folks that have less internet bandwidth or older computing equipment so I've started rolling to a new one aperiodically, usually monthly.
Versions subsequent to the original (latest to oldest) can be found here.
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 11/1/2013
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 10/1/2013
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 9/1/2013
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 8/1/2013
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 7/1/2013
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 6/1/2013
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 5/1/2013
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 3/1/2013
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 02/01/2013
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 12/15/2012
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 11/14/2012
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting
AXPW: IntraDay Trade Charting 9/6/2012  Xx/xx/2012
AXPW: IntraDay Trade Charting 7/7/2012  9/5/2012
In the below chart note that the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!
(rightclick and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)
The following are modified inflection point calculations bracketing a price chart for comparison. Note that the false bullish moves and contrary moves of the 5day has been eliminated.
The two inflection points are calculated identically but differently from the original above. I have two different presentations of this newer version. The top one has all periods on the same scale. The bottom one has longer periods on the left scale and shorter periods on the right scale. The hope is that shorter period changes will be easier to spot because of both the increased visual scale and the offset from the zero point of the longterm scale. More work to do, this is a start, hopefully.
I've identified some changes I want to try on the new inflection point calculations but haven't had time to implement them yet. I'll work them in over time after a little experimentation.
Comments and further suggestions welcome.
(rightclick and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)
To reduce blog size, I've trimmed the oldest "2013 Dly Sht % of 'sells' values". Changes in the current set will be noticed and serve the same purpose. If needed, we can compare behavior to older stuff. Weekly 85% price summaries going back to 6/14/2012 have been also trimmed, along with some daytoday VWAP changes stuff going back to 10/09. Older stuff for all three items is available in AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 10/1/2013.
Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", inflection point calculations values, and endofweek 85% PIPE price factors are now only in the latest daily comment  attempting to keep things shorter for faster loading.
12/31/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 168, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 80000, Vol: 1003469, AvTrSz: 5973
Min. Pr: 0.1020, Max Pr: 0.1065, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1032
# Buys, Shares: 43 328813, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1039
# Sells, Shares: 125 674656, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1028
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.05 (32.77% "buys"), DlyShts 44840 (04.47%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 6.65%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0918 vs. $0.0923, $0.0927, $0.0935, $0.0943 ($0.0942 sans two trades), $0.0949, $0.0955, $0.0961, $0.0966 and $0.0970 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0877 vs.$0.0883, $0.0823, $0.0825, $0.0851 ($0.0838 sans two trades), $0.0869, $0.0881, $0.0883, $0.0921 and $0.0940 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.00%, 0.00%, 0.72%, 115.68% and 40.13% respectively.
There was a premarket trade of 10K that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 993,469 to 1,003,469 and would lower the short percentage from 4.51% to 4.47%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 44,840 to 54,840 and the short percentage would be 5.66%.
On the traditional TA front the only things worth mentioning are that for the seventh day we have traded predominately at or below the former descending mediumterm support, and we had a lower close on increased volume today. Neither of these are encouraging signs.
As I've been mentioning, this recovery from new alltime lows seems slower than in the past. I don't know if it's due to the holiday season, the PIPErs or, as some have suggested, taxloss selling at EOY. Regardless, here we are at the fifth day and the VWAP weakened (see below), the daily short percentage is, for the second consecutive day, in territory usually accompanied by price weakening, average trade size is small (10, 25, 50 and 100day averages are 11,479, 9,353, 9,299 and 8,268 respectively), and buy percentage, even with today's improvement, is wallowing in the area it's been in during the down trend (29.08%, 29.60%, 31.64% and 30.94% for the 10, 25, 50 and 100day averages respectively). We need 35%+ on this last item, at a minimum I think.
I'm not encouraged, but you should probably look at my charts around the times we made new lows and judge for yourself.
ARCA came in at 11:05, stepped out around 12:42 and was in again for five minutes beginning at 14:47. The effect of their first session can be seen in the trade breakdown by time beginning at 11:17 and going forward. Their second session had no effect AFAICT. I guess they just stopped in to make sure price was still depressed because they did have a $0.1025 offer. No trades went at that price during that time.
Offers had only nine increases but had nineteen decreases.
The bids had nineteen increases and twelve decreases, fairly well balanced.
Late in the day, 15:45, NITE presented a bid at $0.1027 for 200K. I think it saved the day as the offers quickly moved back up to $0.104. From $0.1026 at 15:42 we didn't trade below $0.1027 through the end of the day and our VWAP improved.
Yesterday's daily short sales percentage of 06.88% foretold today's, as I've been mentioning, and gave us a 4.47% today. Again, if this doesn't bounce back quickly I don't think we'll be moving up.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:2909:33: 050265 shrs, 05.01% of vol, VWAP $0.1043, 037.5% buys
09:3410:29: 017500 shrs, 01.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1031, 000.0% buys
10:4811:15: 050974 shrs, 05.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1046, 039.0% buys
11:1712:04: 188100 shrs, 18.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1040, 051.5% buys
12:0812:41: 178825 shrs, 17.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1023, 045.5% buys
12:4212:57: 059600 shrs, 05.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1034, 046.5% buys
13:0514:25: 136350 shrs, 13.59% of vol, VWAP $0.1032, 014.1% buys
14:2615:05: 129356 shrs, 12.89% of vol, VWAP $0.1020, 000.0% buys
15:1015:42: 099000 shrs, 09.87% of vol, VWAP $0.1026, 010.1% buys
15:4815:55: 076500 shrs, 07.62% of vol, VWAP $0.1037, 065.4% buys
15:5615:59: 016999 shrs, 01.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1031, 029.4% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1020$0.1020: 171856 shrs, 17.13% of vol, VWAP $0.1020, 000.0% buys
$0.1021$0.1028: 262325 shrs, 26.14% of vol, VWAP $0.1025, 030.0% buys
$0.1030$0.1039: 253150 shrs, 25.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1032, 023.5% buys
$0.1040$0.1049: 287399 shrs, 28.64% of vol, VWAP $0.1041, 056.3% buys
$0.1063$0.1065: 028739 shrs, 02.86% of vol, VWAP $0.1064, 100.0% buys
My original experimental inflection point calculations, which had began to return to the prior trend, again weakened in four periods on the oneday changes, as did the aggregate change over five days and the rate of change over five days.
My newer oneday calculations have all periods weakening, whereas yesterday they were continuing to show oneday improvements, albeit all small changes. Today's changes confirm, I think, yesterday's "For this particular reading I think it suggests reducing weakness rather than increasing strength ...". The aggregate change over five days also has all periods weaker, again a switch from yesterday's six improved periods. Rate of change over five days deteriorated for all periods. The chart beginning formation of a pattern suggesting bullishness has stopped. With the volatility we've had it could begin forming again, but I'm not expecting that for now.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. Note that without that 100K trade, the 12/13 VWAP would be $0.1134 and the buy percentage would be 25.9%.
12/02 $0.1168 01.36% 28.4%
12/03 $0.1145 02.26% 23.0%
12/04 $0.1122 01.98% 28.0%
12/05 $0.1150 +02.50% 37.8%
12/06 $0.1141 00.78% 40.7%
12/09 $0.1151 +00.86% 45.9%
12/10 $0.1156 +00.42% 29.4%
12/11 $0.1139 01.47% 24.8%
12/12 $0.1120 01.66% 14.5%
12/13 $0.1125 +00.50% 38.7%
12/16 $0.1109 01.44% 25.8%
12/17 $0.1106 00.27% 19.2%
12/18 $0.1083 02.11% 32.9%
12/19 $0.1039 04.10% 17.0%
12/20 $0.1036 00.25% 24.0%
12/23 $0.1022 01.33% 32.0%
12/24 $0.1001 02.03% 34.3%
12/24 $0.0986 03.54% 59.6% (sans two trades)
12/26 $0.0970 03.13% 39.8%
12/27 $0.0968 00.23% 29.2%
12/30 $0.1039 +07.37% 29.5%
12/31 $0.1032 00.72% 32.8%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
12/30: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1086, x 85%: $0.0923
12/31: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1080, x 85%: $0.0918
Vol in K, for above days: 465.26 1,003.47.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are omitted from the concentrator.
Week ending values related to the PIPE 85% share pricing:
11/01: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1195, x 85%: $0.1015 VWAP $0.1249
11/08: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1193, x 85%: $0.1014 VWAP $0.1229
11/15: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1183, x 85%: $0.1006 VWAP $0.1203
11/22: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1166, x 85%: $0.0991 VWAP $0.1144
11/29: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1159, x 85%: $0.0985 VWAP $0.1184
12/06: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1169, x 85%: $0.0994 VWAP $0.1141
12/13: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1150, x 85%: $0.0978 VWAP $0.1125
12/20: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1123, x 85%: $0.0955 VWAP $0.1036
12/27: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1091, x 85%: $0.0927 VWAP $0.0968
Vol, in thousands, for above weeks: 3,519, 6,816, 9,769, 3,977, 2,501 (short week), 5,068, 2,451, 5,773 and 7,750.
I discovered that an old problem with my LibreOffice spreadsheets had reappeared on 12/18. For some reason when I open a new row and copy a row into the new rows it mysteriously changes the range addressed in the formulas. This is the day I said "A laugh is provided by my original inflection point calculations, ...". Well, that should have been a clue to check things as they had often been "flaky", but had never made me laugh. I've put the corrected versions into the below tables and have the original versions here. I'll keep then here until the ranges fall out of the table. The short form of the effect of the corrected values is that the original percent change stuff was more consistently negative than my assessments based on the erroneous results.
This did not affect " Rolling 5day ORIGINAL inflection point calculation aggregate change" or " Average change/day, 5 days"
==================================================
 1day change 
12/18 +09.4% +09.7% +11.8% +02.8% 00.7% +00.1%
12/19 +10.6% +04.5% +06.7% +01.7% +00.2% +00.2%
12/20 +03.7% +04.3% +07.3% +00.4% 00.1% +00.2%
 5day change 
12/18 +008.9% +077.0% +139.1% 314.1% +000.7% +011.9%
12/19 +021.3% +010.6% +051.8% +018.4% +011.2% +011.7%
12/20 +002.6% +003.3% +182.3% 024.7% +005.3% +005.5%
 5day rate of change 
12/18 044.2% +102.5% 029.0% 1016.7% 048.0% 028.2%
12/19 +023.8% +000.7% 002.5% 002.5% +017.9% +020.6%
12/20 +002.3% 035.3% +050.6% 022.2% +005.4% +003.8%
==================================================
On my ORIGINAL inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
 1day change 
12/19 14.4% 15.1% 00.4% 01.6% 01.7% 01.4%
12/20 05.2% 02.2% +04.6% 00.9% 00.8% 00.4%
12/23 +03.5% 04.3% +02.8% +00.4% 00.3% 00.5%
12/24 15.2% 30.8% 15.6% 04.4% 03.6% 03.1%
12/26 +07.9% 02.5% +03.3% 00.2% 00.7% 00.7%
12/27 +12.5% +00.4% 01.3% 00.1% +00.9% 00.4%
12/30 +02.8% 01.3% 02.5% +03.9% +00.1% 00.1%
12/31 06.1% 00.9% 00.6% 01.4% 00.5% 00.5%
 5day change 
12/19 012.9% 347.4% 169.7% 176.5% 010.2% 013.5%
12/20 011.7% 029.6% +292.0% 065.6% 002.6% 003.6%
12/23 +019.1% 012.0% +025.4% +000.4% +009.2% +011.2%
12/24 +024.1% 107.6% 125.5% 006.1% 010.4% 018.2%
12/26 +053.2% +006.8% 196.0% +001.6% +019.7% +009.5%
12/27 +130.3% +024.7% 024.5% +022.4% +037.0% +014.9%
12/30 +129.6% +000.8% 151.0% +097.2% +021.8% +006.2%
12/31 067.1% +007.4% 028.0% 1362.7% 005.6% 001.9%
 5day rate of change 
12/19 +006.3% 5686.7% 056.4% 052.3% 006.6% 012.8%
12/20 006.8% 088.1% +044.2% 037.1% 004.7% 009.8%
12/23 +029.4% +015.6% +051.8% +007.9% +034.5% +043.7%
12/24 +093.5% 108.1% +090.7% +027.5% +040.0% +022.2%
12/26 +834.8% +010.4% 1153.4% +045.1% +125.6% +068.4%
12/27 +091.8% +057.0% +062.5% +075.9% +466.2% +267.5%
12/30 +021.9% +028.2% 519.6% +598.2% +028.8% +052.5%
12/31 026.9% +038.9% 027.4% 031.3% 018.9% 051.9%
On my NEWER inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
 1day change 
12/19 019.58% 020.49% 006.54% 011.20% 010.28% 011.39%
12/20 001.55% +001.75% +007.70% +003.26% +002.58% +003.75%
12/23 +004.55% 003.12% +004.45% +001.81% +000.74% +000.62%
12/24 014.99% 030.20% 014.53% 004.18% 003.79% 003.27%
12/26 +005.96% 005.18% +000.92% 002.20% 003.53% 003.95%
12/27 +016.76% +005.36% +003.74% +005.68% +006.52% +005.96%
12/30 +026.19% +018.76% +017.67% +025.09% +023.02% +027.43%
12/31 009.55% 002.56% 002.32% 004.02% 002.99% 003.49%
 5day change 
12/19 018.16% 218.38% 493.50% 064.10% 027.11% 034.80%
12/20 007.47% 015.30% +087.71% 006.33% +003.21% +004.36%
12/23 +021.09% 000.44% +540.53% +029.78% +027.49% +035.17%
12/24 +021.48% 113.72% 190.25% 020.30% 023.25% 034.79%
12/26 +050.40% +004.04% 069.80% +011.99% +011.70% +004.06%
12/27 +162.07% +043.98% +161.00% +141.43% +121.79% +126.65%
12/30 +187.52% +073.38% +248.61% +446.00% +686.91% +660.86%
12/31 028.82% +004.16% 045.63% 018.25% 013.06% 011.62%
 5day rate of change 
12/19 +009.27% 096.85% +020.37% +035.46% +047.85% +054.12%
12/20 006.11% 080.67% +025.13% 038.40% 026.48% 036.47%
12/23 +033.70% +035.92% +095.14% +060.82% +087.83% +109.11%
12/24 +093.33% 139.93% +434.20% +021.85% +006.59% 150.30%
12/26 +827.49% +006.55% 267.54% +060.36% +123.24% 052.12%
12/27 +131.14% +084.12% +330.45% +841.31% +4785.05% +2147.19%
12/30 +037.78% +345.37% +024.36% +114.57% +095.15% +112.68%
12/31 023.81% +002.47% 078.24% 022.56% 019.20% 020.34%
Rolling 5day ORIGINAL inflection point calculation aggregate change:
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
12/19 5 Day 1734.65 0745.48 0190.26 0773.09 3055.61 2649.07
12/20 5 Day 1936.93 0965.93 +0365.36 1280.03 3134.28 2743.90
12/23 5 Day 1567.75 1081.49 +0458.33 1274.61 2845.37 2436.03
12/24 5 Day 1189.47 2245.46 0117.07 1351.75 3141.25 2880.57
12/26 5 Day 0556.28 2093.31 0346.56 1329.99 2522.26 2605.63
12/27 5 Day +0165.41 1569.24 0418.90 1024.35 1582.94 2209.48
12/30 5 Day +0379.85 1557.08 1051.29 0028.37 1237.51 2073.53
12/31 5 Day +0125.14 1442.61 1345.96 0414.90 1306.63 2113.38
Average change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
12/19 544.76 130.17 396.86 418.51 475.66 358.00
12/20 581.58 244.86 221.30 573.67 497.83 393.12
12/23 410.80 206.62 106.64 528.36 326.05 221.37
12/24 026.70 430.05 009.89 382.90 195.74 172.32
12/26 +196.15 385.34 123.90 210.08 +050.02 054.48
12/27 +380.01 164.75 045.73 050.25 +294.53 +087.92
12/30 +463.36 118.23 283.33 +250.33 +379.35 +134.07
12/31 +338.58 072.23 360.86 +171.94 +307.75 +064.53
Rolling 5day NEWER inflection point calculation aggregate change:
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
12/19 5 Day 0216.95 0111.05 0087.12 0421.77 0916.16 1216.90
12/20 5 Day 0233.16 0128.04 0010.71 0448.46 0886.80 1163.86
12/23 5 Day 0183.98 0128.60 +0047.17 0314.91 0643.00 0754.57
12/24 5 Day 0144.46 0274.85 0042.57 0378.83 0792.47 1017.04
12/26 5 Day 0071.65 0263.75 0072.29 0333.40 0699.77 0975.80
12/27 5 Day +0043.91 0147.26 +0043.54 +0137.75 +0152.28 +0259.83
12/30 5 Day +0126.24 0039.20 +0151.79 +0752.13 +1198.29 +1976.92
12/31 5 Day +0089.86 0037.57 +0082.53 +0614.86 +1041.75 +1747.25
Average change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
12/19 0065.55 0017.63 0056.52 0090.95 0125.55 0153.62
12/20 0069.55 0031.86 0042.32 0125.88 0158.79 0209.65
12/23 0046.11 0020.41 0002.06 0049.31 0019.32 +0019.09
12/24 0003.08 0048.98 +0006.88 0038.54 0018.04 0009.60
12/26 +0022.39 0045.78 0011.52 0015.28 +0004.19 0014.61
12/27 +0052.17 0007.24 +0026.13 +0111.90 +0213.69 +0295.35
12/30 +0071.88 +0017.77 +0032.50 +0240.12 +0417.02 +0628.16
12/31 +0054.77 +0018.21 +0007.07 +0185.95 +0336.95 +0500.36
2013 Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
============ 2013 ===============
Mon. 10/07: 17.11% 8.60% 5.98% 61.69% 53.13%
Mon. 10/14: 45.42% 62.53% 67.90% 30.41% 73.99%
Mon. 10/21: 48.19% 47.09% 32.37% 38.06% 32.08%
Mon. 10/28: 37.81% 82.02% 21.45% 10.13% 7.45%
Mon. 11/04: 29.83% 49.63% 31.37% 45.17% 50.60%
Mon. 11/11: 27.53% 35.80% 45.77% 33.82% 46.96%
Mon. 11/18: 37.39% 7.21% 5.99% 14.59% 27.14%
Mon. 11/25: 12.23% 25.80% 6.42% 27.28%
Mon. 12/02: 29.81% 22.62% 15.87% 36.07% 48.41%
Mon. 12/09: 58.28% 25.81% 29.22% 9.19% 47.06%
Mon. 12/16: 31.39% 17.00% 35.06% 20.94% 2.10%
Mon. 12/23: 32.34% 24.95% 63.82% 32.86%
Mon. 12/30: 10.02% 6.65%
============ 2013 ===============
Jan Avg: 44.20%, min: 00.00%, max: 262.58%
Feb Avg: 20.90%, min: 02.88%, max: 055.65%
Mar Avg: 15.42%, min: 00.00%, max: 100.79%
Apr Avg: 40.63%, min: 00.00%, max: 690.95%
May Avg: 67.58%, min: 09.15%, max: 150.50%
Jun Avg: 47.48%, min: 15.07%, max: 098.99%
Jul Avg: 44.47%, min: 11.23%, max: 122.28%
Aug Avg: 30.24%, min: 02.56%, max: 086.11%
Sep Avg: 16.30%, min: 00.00%, max: 037.54%
Oct Avg: 35.95%, min: 05.98%, max: 082.02%
Nov Avg: 28.42%, min: 05.99%, max: 050.60%
Dec Avg: 29.22%, min: 02.10%, max: 063.82%
1231 Vol 0993469, Sht 0044840 04.51% LHC 0.1020 0.1065 0.1042 b:s 1:2.05[108]
1230 Vol 0464760, Sht 0032000 06.89% LHC 0.1000 0.1065 0.1065 b:s 1:2.32[107]
1227 Vol 0718697, Sht 0167300 23.28% LHC 0.0960 0.1000 0.1000 b:s 1:2.43[106]
1226 Vol 1858898, Sht 0709398 38.16% LHC 0.0953 0.1000 0.0955 b:s 1:1.50[105]
1224 Vol 2660486, Sht 0758726 28.52% LHC 0.0950 0.1040 0.0975 b:s 1:1.91[104]
1223 Vol 0536636, Sht 0118000 21.99% LHC 0.1008 0.1049 0.1040 b:s 1:2.12
1220 Vol 0490906, Sht 0007800 01.59% LHC 0.1011 0.1070 0.1030 b:s 1:3.49
1219 Vol 1041371, Sht 0176895 16.99% LHC 0.1010 0.1099 0.1030 b:s 1:4.76[103]
1219 Vol 0691771, Sht 0097020 14.02% LHC FINRA ERR FIXED ABOVE :s 1:4.76[103]
1218 Vol 1863209, Sht 0608464 32.66% LHC 0.1050 0.1158 0.1056 b:s 1:2.03[102]
1218 Vol 1244932, Sht 0435728 35.00% LHC FINRA ERR FIXED ABOVE :s 1:2.03[102]
1217 Vol 1745872, Sht 0236700 13.56% LHC 0.1100 0.1139 0.1105 b:s 1:4.05[101]
1216 Vol 0625460, Sht 0143312 22.91% LHC 0.1100 0.1135 0.1101 b:s 1:2.83
1213 Vol 0580230, Sht 0157990 27.23% LHS 0.1120 0.1140 0.1120 b:s 1:1.50
1212 Vol 0455500, Sht 0035800 07.86% LHC 0.1110 0.1145 0.1120 b:s 1:5.90
1211 Vol 0492966, Sht 0108250 21.96% LHC 0.1130 0.1159 0.1145 b:s 1:3.03
1210 Vol 0581586, Sht 0102800 17.68% LHC 0.1133 0.1168 0.1136 b:s 1:2.33
1209 Vol 0340929, Sht 0107500 31.53% LHC 0.1130 0.1170 0.1146 b:s 1:1.18
1206 Vol 0964200, Sht 0274800 28.50% LHC 0.1121 0.1170 0.1130 b:s 1:1.43[100]
1205 Vol 0777301, Sht 0170000 21.87% LHC 0.1120 0.1200 0.1135 b:s 1:1.60
1204 Vol 0846190, Sht 0092700 10.95% LHC 0.1110 0.1169 0.1111 b:s 1:2.46[99]
1203 Vol 1877312, Sht 0316797 16.88% LHC 0.1110 0.1190 0.1110 b:s 1:3.24
1202 Vol 0592834, Sht 0123454 20.82% LHC 0.1157 0.1198 0.1167 b:s 1:2.46
1129 Vol 0209769, Sht 0089269 42.56% LHC 0.1161 0.1230 0.1170 b:s 1:4.18[98]
1127 Vol 0522193, Sht 0030000 05.75% LHC 0.1155 0.1219 0.1160 b:s 1:8.50
1126 Vol 0796756, Sht 0106540 13.37% LHC 0.1155 0.1200 0.1170 b:s 1:1.10
1125 Vol 0776502, Sht 0059362 07.64% LHC 0.1120 0.1200 0.1150 b:s 1:1.79
1122 Vol 0406110, Sht 0093800 23.10% LHC 0.1120 0.1198 0.1140 b:s 1:5.71
1121 Vol 0281320, Sht 0017000 06.04% LHC 0.1120 0.1150 0.1139 b:s 1.38:1
1120 Vol 0582923, Sht 0022932 03.93% LHC 0.1111 0.1140 0.1120 b:s 1:1.91
1119 Vol 1332681, Sht 0072610 05.45% LHC 0.1111 0.1239 0.1115 b:s 1:3.20
1118 Vol 1373735, Sht 0294250 21.42% LHC 0.1160 0.1250 0.1200 b:s 1:1.31
1115 Vol 1853919, Sht 0538550 29.05% LHC 0.1150 0.1350 0.1151 b:s 1:1.59[97]
1114 Vol 1827868, Sht 0419031 22.92% LHC 0.1110 0.1225 0.1130 b:s 1:2.14
1113 Vol 2142796, Sht 0632986 29.54% LHC 0.1120 0.1279 0.1220 b:s 1:1.84
1112 Vol 2709292, Sht 0695002 25.65% LHC 0.1120 0.1310 0.1126 b:s 1:2.53
1111 Vol 1219966, Sht 0213133 17.47% LHC 0.1203 0.1350 0.1230 b:s 1:1.78
1108 Vol 1993612, Sht 0613441 30.77% LHC 0.1200 0.1300 0.1230 b:s 1:1.56
.... OTC markets down 11/07 until ~15:00 resulting in an aberrant day!
1107 Vol 0369750, Sht 0074900 20.26% LHC 0.1210 0.1300 0.1261 b:s 1.23:1
1106 Vol 1471255, Sht 0347896 23.65% LHC 0.1210 0.1335 0.1220 b:s 1:3.10
1105 Vol 1287910, Sht 0443810 34.46% LHC 0.1252 0.1399 0.1329 b:s 1:2.02[96]
1104 Vol 1643903, Sht 0342362 20.83% LHC 0.1203 0.1400 0.1350 b:s 1:2.08
1101 Vol 1124204, Sht 0065000 05.78% LHC 0.1200 0.1298 0.1220 b:s 1:3.90
[96] There was one AH trade of 50K that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,287,910 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 34.46% to my 33.17%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 443,810 to 493,810 and the short percentage would be 36.91%.
[97] There were two premarket trades totaling 15K that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,853,919 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 29.05% to my 28.82%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 538,550 to 553,550 and the short percentage would be 29.62%.
[98] ABERRATION! FINRAreported daily short sales trade volume is missing 195,700 shares of the daily trade volume. I've emailed FINRA for clarification  it could be case of partial volume which will be rectified on the next business day. There could be unreported short sales included in the (apparently) missing volume. Regardless, adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 209,769 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 42.56% to my 22.02%. If new data is received Monday, the day's record will be updated and this note may be removed
[100] There were two premarket trades totaling 10K that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 274,800 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 28.5% to my 28.21%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 274,800 to 284,400 and the short percentage would be 29.23%.
[102] FINRA data for 12/18/13 was incomplete and I failed to catch it. John Petersen caught it subsequently and I have updated the 12/18 stuff and kept a record of the erroneous entry in both the running short sales data and in the EOD header stuff.
[103] There was an aftermarket trade of 1K that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,041,371 to 1,042,371 and would lower the short percentage from 16.99% to 16.97%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 176,895 to 177,895 and the short percentage would be 17.66%.
[104] There was a premarket trade of ~1,971K that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 2,660,486 to 4,631,108 and would lower the short percentage from 28.52% to 16.38%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 758,726 to 1,970,622 and the short percentage would be 59.38%.
[105] There was an aftermarket trade of 5K that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,858,898 to 1,863,898 and would lower the short percentage from 38.16% to 38.06%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 709,398 to 714,598 and the short percentage would be 39.06%.
[106] There's a 1share trade detailed by the ADVFN trades screen that doesn't show in Power ETrade Pro "Time & Sales" panel nor in the FINRA daily short sales trade volume. Without this trade FINRA's 718,697 would be correct but then Yahoo, Power ETrade Pro "Market Depth" (Level 2), ETrade snapshot and historical quote would all be incorrect. This is where checking multiple sources pay off for me. It's inconsequential in terms of numerical results, but important in terms of reliability of data from a regulatory body (FINRA is an SRO, selfregulatory organization, for the financial industry). I've emailed FINRA to see what can be learned  who's right and where did that 1share trade come from and should it have been on the FINRA ORF data.
[107] There was an aftermarket trade of 500 shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 464,760 to 465,260 and would lower the short percentage from 6.89% to 6.88%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 32,000 to 32,500 and the short percentage would be 7.55%.
[108] There was a premarket trade of 10K that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 993,469 to 1,003,469 and would lower the short percentage from 4.51% to 4.47%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 44,840 to 54,840 and the short percentage would be 5.66%.
12/30/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 90, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol: 465260, AvTrSz: 5170
Min. Pr: 0.1000, Max Pr: 0.1065, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1039
# Buys, Shares: 20 137402, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1038
# Sells, Shares: 70 319260, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1024
# Unkn, Shares: 0 13598, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1018
Buy:Sell 1:2.32 (29.53% "buys"), DlyShts 32000 (06.88%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 10.02%
There was an aftermarket trade of 500 shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 464,760 to 465,260 and would lower the short percentage from 6.89% to 6.88%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 32,000 to 32,500 and the short percentage would be 7.55%.
Yesterday I said "Thus far the price recovery seems a bit slower ... recently posted it took about three days to get back at or above the prior "flat" price level". Today it made it on the fourth day, including the down day. That's a day longer than seen in the past.
If ARCA hadn't been playing hooky again I don't know what might have been the result. But they came in at 10:05 and were gone by 11:18. They've been doing this sort of thing a lot lately.
I mentioned yesterday that if daily short sales percentage continues to drop and gets to levels of absurdity, we may not be able to recover to prior price levels. Today we recovered but we are now at absurd levels  06.88%. If this doesn't bounce back quickly I don't think we'll be moving up.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0923 vs. $0.0927, $0.0935, $0.0943 ($0.0942 sans two trades), $0.0949, $0.0955, $0.0961, $0.0966, $0.0970 and $0.0974 on prior days. HALLELUJAH! 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0883 vs. $0.0823, $0.0825, $0.0851 ($0.0838 sans two trades), $0.0869, $0.0881, $0.0883, $0.0921, $0.0940 and $0.0943 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
My pessimism from a few days back, which was on hold, got a little boost today from that low daily short sales percentage, and it's even worse if you look at the short volume.
I had mentioned yesterday "... but it has dropped back below my longterm trend line. This appears to be the start of a leg down to very low levels, percentagewise, that accompanies reducing VWAP levels". The fact that it is behaving as expected normally comforts me  I like to know what's going on. But since we just came off a new alltime low and did not act as we did in the prior ones  rising daily short sales percentage and higher "buy" percentages, I'm seeing this recovery as still "weak" and very suspect. You might want to check my charts and make you own judgment.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 4.17%, 6.50%, 7.37%, 35.26% and 80.87% respectively.
Average trade size was in a range suitable for price at and above $0.10 on a weak recovery. I wish it were larger though.
With ARCA being predominately absent today, ATDF, NITE, CDEL and BTIG spent most of the time at the top of the offers and again were less aggressive than ARCA normally is. This accounts for the VWAP improvement today.
The net result was an again reasonably balanced ten moves up and seven moves lower on the offers.
The bids, in response, had ten increases and only three decreases, very similar to yesterday.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:53: 016660 shrs, 03.58% of vol, VWAP $0.1005, 024.0% buys 10:0311:17: 054800 shrs, 11.78% of vol, VWAP $0.1010, 018.2% buys 11:1812:10: 053300 shrs, 11.46% of vol, VWAP $0.1014, 015.8% buys 12:2013:13: 020400 shrs, 04.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1024, 049.0% buys
13:1914:17: 054200 shrs, 11.65% of vol, VWAP $0.1035, 038.7% buys
14:2015:16: 178600 shrs, 38.39% of vol, VWAP $0.1032, 032.5% buys 15:1915:40: 053100 shrs, 11.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1033, 000.0% buys 15:5416:00: 034200 shrs, 07.35% of vol, VWAP $0.1056, 076.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1000$0.1018: 110760 shrs, 23.81% of vol, VWAP $0.1010, 007.6% buys
$0.1020$0.1025: 025400 shrs, 05.46% of vol, VWAP $0.1021, 059.1% buys
$0.1030$0.1034: 185300 shrs, 39.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1030, 013.0% buys
$0.1035$0.1035: 107300 shrs, 23.06% of vol, VWAP $0.1035, 050.3% buys
$0.1049$0.1065: 036500 shrs, 07.85% of vol, VWAP $0.1059, 098.6% buys
On the traditional TA front the good news is that we traded completely above my longterm descending resistance, instead of below it as had been the case. The prior few weeks we spent most of our time bumping against it and getting above only three times. Notsogreat news is that we made our low by moving below the mediumterm support and have been below it six days now. Today's high, and close, appears to have stopped either right on it or just above  not enough precision to be sure which. Anyway, this former support would now be resistance and we need to move smartly above it to give me a warm fuzzy feeling here.
Most of the oscillators I watch are trying to improve. But volume is low, even lower than the ~7xxK I was wishing for a short while back, and falling. We need volume. Maybe it's the holidays and thing will pick up after the holidays.
My original experimental inflection point calculations, which had began to return to the prior trend, weakened in four periods on the oneday changes. The aggregate change over five days has five periods weakening, as does the rate of change over five days.
Because additional factors are considered, my newer oneday calculations have all periods continuing to show oneday improvements, again all small changes. For this particular reading I think it suggests reducing weakness rather than increasing strength. This would be consistent with the buy percentage being on the low side of my desired 35%+. The aggregate change over five days again has all six periods improved, and again a couple are better than marginal. Rate of change over five days is the same. There's enough improvement that the formation of a pattern suggesting bullishness is beginning on the charts. We still have a way to go  we're still too far in negative territory for anything other than reducing weakness to be drawn from it. This does match what we could expect as we come off new alltime lows.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. Note that without that 100K trade, the 12/13 VWAP would be $0.1134 and the buy percentage would be 25.9%.
11/29 $0.1184 +01.03% 19.3%
12/02 $0.1168 01.36% 28.4%
12/03 $0.1145 02.26% 23.0%
12/04 $0.1122 01.98% 28.0%
12/05 $0.1150 +02.50% 37.8%
12/06 $0.1141 00.78% 40.7%
12/09 $0.1151 +00.86% 45.9%
12/10 $0.1156 +00.42% 29.4%
12/11 $0.1139 01.47% 24.8%
12/12 $0.1120 01.66% 14.5%
12/13 $0.1125 +00.50% 38.7%
12/16 $0.1109 01.44% 25.8%
12/17 $0.1106 00.27% 19.2%
12/18 $0.1083 02.11% 32.9%
12/19 $0.1039 04.10% 17.0%
12/20 $0.1036 00.25% 24.0%
12/23 $0.1022 01.33% 32.0%
12/24 $0.1001 02.03% 34.3%
12/24 $0.0986 03.54% 59.6% (sans two trades)
12/26 $0.0970 03.13% 39.8%
12/27 $0.0968 00.23% 29.2%
12/30 $0.1039 +07.37% 29.5%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
12/30: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1086, x 85%: $0.0923
Vol in K, for above days: 465.26.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
12/27/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 96, MinTrSz: 1, MaxTrSz: 55000, Vol: 718698, AvTrSz: 7486
Min. Pr: 0.0960, Max Pr: 0.1000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0968
# Buys, Shares: 24 209559, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0971
# Sells, Shares: 72 509139, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0967
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.43 (29.16% "buys"), DlyShts 167300 (23.28%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 32.86%
As is normal for this equity after a new alltime low has been breached, price and certain aspects of my experimental calculations have begun to recover. Thus far the price recovery seems a bit slower than in the past. I had recently posted it took about three days to get back at or above the prior "flat" price level. I don't know if this slower recovery is due to being in holiday season or it's a longerterm effect of loss of investor confidence in price behavior going forward nearterm.
If daily short sales percentage continues to drop and gets to levels of absurdity, we may not be able to recover to prior price levels. This would be, IMO, a direct effect of the longterm PIPEr behavior seen thus far.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0927 vs. $0.0935, $0.0943 ($0.0942 sans two trades), $0.0949, $0.0955, $0.0961, $0.0966, $0.0970, $0.0974 and $0.0978 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0823 vs. $0.0825, $0.0851 ($0.0838 sans two trades), $0.0869, $0.0881, $0.0883, $0.0921, $0.0940, $0.0943 and $0.0957 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
My pessimism from a few days back continues on hold, although the sluggish price recovery towards prior "flat" level, the alreadyfalling buy percentage and the retreating daily short percentage gives me reason to be concerned.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.73%, 0.00%, 0.23%, 61.44% and 76.42% respectively. If we remove the 8K in 4 trades discussed below, the high moves to $0.0980 (2.00%) and VWAP moves to $0.0959 (1.14%). The only reason to consider this "without them" is that they were several relatively small trades near EOD that may be somewhat misleading.
The daily short sales today remains above my mediumterm trend line, but it has dropped back below my longterm trend line. This appears to be the start of a leg down to very low levels, percentagewise, that accompanies reducing VWAP levels. It's still above our averages of 21.46%, 18.81%, 20.63% and 17.56% for the 10, 25, 50 and 100day averages, and can be expected to at least achieve those lower levels. I expect it will drop much lower as this has been the behavior over the last few months. As with yesterday, I'm wondering if we'll start a new "normal" range with prices at this level. A range around 30%+ on a regular basis is still my preference.
Discussing average trade sizes yesterday I posited we might move to a higher range, as a result of the low price range moving standard "present" sizes to 10K. I speculated on something around 8K? Today it was 7,486. It's too early to say whether this is around where it will settle. But just to get data in place for early detection of it I thought a few statistics (Yes! More, more, more! I need more!) might be useful. Too bad I don't have historical already compiled and it's too laborious to do it now.
There's a 1share trade detailed by the ADVFN trades screen that doesn't show in Power ETrade Pro "Time & Sales" panel nor in the FINRA daily short sales trade volume. Without this trade FINRA's 718,697 would be correct but then Yahoo, Power ETrade Pro "Market Depth" (Level 2), ETrade snapshot and historical quote would all be incorrect. This is where checking multiple sources pay off for me. It's inconsequential in terms of numerical results, but important in terms of reliability of data from a regulatory body (FINRA is an SRO, selfregulatory organization, for the financial industry). I've emailed FINRA to see what can be learned  who's right and where did that 1share trade come from and should it have been on the FINRA ORF data.
Excluding one trade of 1 share, we have 26 of 95 trades, 27.4%, of size >= 10K, representing 448,400 out of 718,697 shares, 62.4% of volume traded.
ARCA came in between around 12:29 today, dropping the best offer by 3/100ths of a penny (mission accomplished for that amount?) and left by 12:35. They did not reappear until around 15:45, when they stuck an offer in at $0.10, well above the best offers at the time of ~$0.0978 (in that vicinity  I couldn't catch every change).
One "buy" of 15.5K took out the $0.0978 offer and exposed ARCA's $0.10 offer. Four minutes before the close the offer was hit for 2K shares, then three sells: one $0.0967 and two $0.0980 followed by one more "buy" at $0.10 to close the day.
These last few trades totaled 8K shares. The $0.10 trades accounted for 2,760 shares. I wonder if someone got peeved that they couldn't force a close below $0.10.
As before, with ARCA being in less and being less aggressive, ATDF, NITE and BTIG spent most of the time at the top of the offers and were also less aggressive than ARCA normally is (and even NITE a few times recently), with the usual exception of ADTF sometimes trying to gain a one or 2 hundredths penny advantage, and we had some long periods at various times with no movement on the offer.
The net result was a reasonably balanced three moves up and five moves lower on the offers.
The bids, in response, had seven increases and only three decreases.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3010:33: 021200 shrs, 02.95% of vol, VWAP $0.0969, 050.9% buys
10:1411:49: 058000 shrs, 08.07% of vol, VWAP $0.0964, 000.0% buys
12:2513:35: 214000 shrs, 29.78% of vol, VWAP $0.0966, 041.6% buys
13:3613:58: 110999 shrs, 15.44% of vol, VWAP $0.0968, 012.6% buys
14:0115:03: 235999 shrs, 32.84% of vol, VWAP $0.0967, 025.4% buys
15:0715:53: 070500 shrs, 09.81% of vol, VWAP $0.0975, 046.8% buys
15:5615:59: 008000 shrs, 01.11% of vol, VWAP $0.0984, 034.5% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0960$0.0965: 203400 shrs, 28.30% of vol, VWAP $0.0964, 009.8% buys
$0.0966$0.0970: 443198 shrs, 61.67% of vol, VWAP $0.0968, 036.2% buys
$0.0975$0.0979: 041300 shrs, 05.75% of vol, VWAP $0.0977, 063.7% buys
$0.0980$0.0980: 028040 shrs, 03.92% of vol, VWAP $0.0980, 000.0% buys
$0.1000$0.1000: 002760 shrs, 00.39% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 100.0% buys
On the traditional TA front we have price range at the bottom of the Bollinger band and in a normal market would expect a move towards the center of the band. In our case I can't say if that is likely or not. With the huge volume and sub$0.10 price move we had every oscillator I watch enter oversold. This would argue for a move back to our preplunge level. Again. I have no feeling ATM for how likely this is. Our current trading is 100% at or below our prior alltime low and below both my descending resistance and support lines, as well as the descending 50day SMA of $0.1165.
Only RSI has managed to move out of oversold territory.
As we continued to come off the exceptional day, my original experimental inflection point calculations began to return to the prior trend. The changes over one day have three periods improving, two weakening and one flat. The aggregate change over five days has all periods improving and the rate of change over five days has only the five day period weakening.
My newer oneday calculations have all periods showing oneday improvements, all small changes again. The aggregate change over five days again has all six periods improved, and a couple are better than marginal, although not large. Rate of change has only the 5day period weakening. The 100 and 200day periods have very large improvements on a percentage basis.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. Note that without that 100K trade, the 12/13 VWAP would be $0.1134 and the buy percentage would be 25.9%.
11/29 $0.1184 +01.03% 19.3%
12/02 $0.1168 01.36% 28.4%
12/03 $0.1145 02.26% 23.0%
12/04 $0.1122 01.98% 28.0%
12/05 $0.1150 +02.50% 37.8%
12/06 $0.1141 00.78% 40.7%
12/09 $0.1151 +00.86% 45.9%
12/10 $0.1156 +00.42% 29.4%
12/11 $0.1139 01.47% 24.8%
12/12 $0.1120 01.66% 14.5%
12/13 $0.1125 +00.50% 38.7%
12/16 $0.1109 01.44% 25.8%
12/17 $0.1106 00.27% 19.2%
12/18 $0.1083 02.11% 32.9%
12/19 $0.1039 04.10% 17.0%
12/20 $0.1036 00.25% 24.0%
12/23 $0.1022 01.33% 32.0%
12/24 $0.1001 02.03% 34.3%
12/24 $0.0986 03.54% 59.6% (sans two trades)
12/26 $0.0970 03.13% 39.8%
12/27 $0.0968 00.23% 29.2%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
12/23: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1117, x 85%: $0.0949
12/24: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1109, x 85%: $0.0943
12/24 sans two trades $0.0942
12/26: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1100, x 85%: $0.0935
12/27: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1091, x 85%: $0.0927
Vol in K, for above days: 536.64 4,631.11 (short day, sans two trades 2,650.49) 1863.90 718.70.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
12/26/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 169, MinTrSz: 1000, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol: 1863898, AvTrSz: 11029
Min. Pr: 0.0953, Max Pr: 0.1000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0970
# Buys, Shares: 64 742298, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0974
# Sells, Shares: 104 1111600, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0968
# Unkn, Shares: 1 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0985
Buy:Sell 1:1.50 (39.83% "buys"), DlyShts 709398 (38.06%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 63.82%
There was an aftermarket trade of 5K that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,858,898 to 1,863,898 and would lower the short percentage from 38.16% to 38.06%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 709,398 to 714,598 and the short percentage would be 39.06%.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0935 vs. $0.0943 ($0.0942 sans two trades), $0.0949, $0.0955, $0.0961, $0.0966, $0.0970, $0.0974, $0.0978 and $0.0981 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0825 vs. $0.0851 ($0.0838 sans two trades), $0.0869, $0.0881, $0.0883, $0.0921, $0.0940, $0.0943, $0.0957 and $0.0952 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
My pessimism from the past two days is continues on hold while I see what develops.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.32%, 3.85%, 3.13%, 59.75% and 6.50% respectively.
The daily short sales today was well above both my medium and longterm trend lines today. A lot of this should be the effect of the breaking below $0.10 and the larger average buy percentage  three days now above 30% and in the range again of our averages of 27.83%, 30.20%, 32.29% and 31.04% for the 10, 25, 50 and 100day averages. This is still below where we need to be to see reduction in price weakening though. I expect we'll step down on daily short sales percentage again, but I'm wondering if we'll start a new "normal" range with prices at this level. Time will tell. I'd like to see, as mentioned in the past, a range around 30%+ on a regular basis.
I'm expecting we'll see average trade sizes move to a higher range than seen in the past, as a result of the low price range moving standard "present" sizes to 10K. Probably, over time, something around 8K? Anyway, I need to see what the new typical range is before we can factor that into trying gauge what's coming again.
ARCA came in at 09:44 today and stayed all day. But their behavior was less aggressive than what had become my view of "normal" for them. This change began to appear, inconsistently so far though, in the last week or so. The "aggressors" now are more frequently from NIOTE, BTIG, ATDF and, occasionally, PERT. ARCA has been sometimes just sticking their offer in and moreorless sitting there and letting the market move up to them.
As a result, movement in the offers that I tracked had fourteen improvements vs. 15 decreases and one unchanged, a better ratio than often seen with ARCA's prior behavior.
The bids behaved better in response, with eleven increases and nine decreases. Not only was the ratio decent, but the movements were more frequent than often seen recently.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:45: 237500 shrs, 12.74% of vol, VWAP $0.0987, 039.4% buys
09:4610:08: 066498 shrs, 03.57% of vol, VWAP $0.0993, 015.0% buys
10:2010:59: 245900 shrs, 13.19% of vol, VWAP $0.0973, 017.4% buys
11:0912:05: 193400 shrs, 10.38% of vol, VWAP $0.0957, 022.4% buys
12:0612:30: 258000 shrs, 13.84% of vol, VWAP $0.0968, 054.7% buys
12:3112:45: 083000 shrs, 04.45% of vol, VWAP $0.0963, 048.2% buys
12:4612:53: 125000 shrs, 06.71% of vol, VWAP $0.0980, 088.0% buys
13:0813:24: 160300 shrs, 08.60% of vol, VWAP $0.0974, 040.5% buys
13:3513:52: 049300 shrs, 02.64% of vol, VWAP $0.0970, 040.6% buys
14:0114:54: 061500 shrs, 03.30% of vol, VWAP $0.0971, 079.7% buys
15:0015:37: 325500 shrs, 17.46% of vol, VWAP $0.0956, 032.0% buys
15:4216:04: 058000 shrs, 03.11% of vol, VWAP $0.0970, 040.5% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0953$0.0957: 413500 shrs, 22.18% of vol, VWAP $0.0955, 011.4% buys
$0.0960$0.0969: 486000 shrs, 26.07% of vol, VWAP $0.0964, 042.1% buys
$0.0970$0.0976: 559250 shrs, 30.00% of vol, VWAP $0.0973, 044.2% buys
$0.0980$0.0985: 116900 shrs, 06.27% of vol, VWAP $0.0982, 060.1% buys
$0.0990$0.0995: 278250 shrs, 14.93% of vol, VWAP $0.0992, 058.7% buys
$0.1000$0.1000: 009998 shrs, 00.54% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 100.0% buys
As could be expected, based on past occurrences, setting new lows brought in the buyers and my original experimental inflection point calculation changes over one day had all six periods showing improvement. The aggregate changes over 5 days had 5 periods with improving and one marginally weakening. The rate of change over five days had the same situation, with the exception that the one weakening 25day period had a huge move down. That's just an effect of what dropped out of the 25day window, so far, and we should see that metric improved over a short period.
My newer oneday calculations have five periods showing oneday improvements, all small changes, as was the one negative move. The aggregate change over five days has all six periods improved, and several are better than marginal, although not large. Rate of change has five periods improving, with only the 25day mimicking the original with a large negative move, and a couple periods have improvements larger than "marginal".
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. Note that without that 100K trade, the 12/13 VWAP would be $0.1134 and the buy percentage would be 25.9%.
11/21 $0.1136 +00.99% 47.2%
11/22 $0.1144 +00.66% 14.9%
11/25 $0.1145 +00.14% 34.9%
11/26 $0.1183 +03.28% 47.3%
11/27 $0.1172 00.96% 10.5%
11/29 $0.1184 +01.03% 19.3%
12/02 $0.1168 01.36% 28.4%
12/03 $0.1145 02.26% 23.0%
12/04 $0.1122 01.98% 28.0%
12/05 $0.1150 +02.50% 37.8%
12/06 $0.1141 00.78% 40.7%
12/09 $0.1151 +00.86% 45.9%
12/10 $0.1156 +00.42% 29.4%
12/11 $0.1139 01.47% 24.8%
12/12 $0.1120 01.66% 14.5%
12/13 $0.1125 +00.50% 38.7%
12/16 $0.1109 01.44% 25.8%
12/17 $0.1106 00.27% 19.2%
12/18 $0.1083 02.11% 32.9%
12/19 $0.1039 04.10% 17.0%
12/20 $0.1036 00.25% 24.0%
12/23 $0.1022 01.33% 32.0%
12/24 $0.1001 02.03% 34.3%
12/24 $0.0986 03.54% 59.6% (sans two trades)
12/26 $0.0970 03.13% 39.8%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
12/23: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1117, x 85%: $0.0949
12/24: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1109, x 85%: $0.0943
12/24 sans two trades $0.0942
12/26: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1100, x 85%: $0.0935
Vol in K, for above days: 536.64 4,631.11 (short day, sans two trades 2,650.49) 1863.90.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
12/24/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 141, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 1970622, Vol: 4631108, AvTrSz: 32845
Min. Pr: 0.0950, Max Pr: 0.1040, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1001
# Buys, Shares: 62 1589966, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0986
# Sells, Shares: 79 3041142, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1009
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.91 (34.3% "buys"), DlyShts 758726 (16.38%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 24.95%
Some interesting things happen if the two $0.1022 trades (one BIG premarket and a 10K first trade after open  seems to me likely related to the biggie) are removed from the day's festivities. Note the significant things: VWAP, VW Avg Sell Pr (matches VW Avg Buy Pr too), buy %, short %, and Dly Sht % of 'sells'. Note we still had another large trade, 460K that went off at $0.0980 and a 200K at $0.1010, not shown.
# Trds: 139, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 460000, Vol: 2650486, AvTrSz: 19068
Min. Pr: 0.0950, Max Pr: 0.1040, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0986
# Buys, Shares: 61 1579966, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0986
# Sells, Shares: 78 1070520, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0986
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.48:1 (59.61% "buys"), DlyShts 758726 (29.00%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 70.87%
There's some other effects  I'll mention them where appropriate. Proceeding with the unadjusted data ...
There was a premarket trade of ~1,971K that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 2,660,486 to 4,631,108 and would lower the short percentage from 28.52% to 16.38%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 758,726 to 1,970,622 and the short percentage would be 59.38%.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0943 ($0.0942 sans two trades) vs. $0.0949, $0.0955, $0.0961, $0.0966, $0.0970, $0.0974, $0.0978, $0.0981 and $0.0984 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0851 ($0.0838 sans two trades) vs. $0.0869, $0.0881, $0.0883, $0.0921, $0.0940, $0.0943, $0.0957, $0.0952 and $0.0968 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
My pessimism from the past two days is put on hold while I see what develops. I do not that on recent prior making of new alltime lows there has been a three day period to recovery to a level above the "flats" seen prior to the dip. I also note that the most recent occurrence had an anemic recovery, barely getting above the recent flat area. The last two occurrences were when the PIPErs were in our market.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 5.75%, 0.86%, 2.03%, 762.99% and 542.99% respectively. Sans two trades, 5.75%, 0.86%, 3.54%, 393.91% and 542.99% respectively.
Discussing the expected short percentage behavior yesterday I said it came off the bottom, as expected, and I guessed today it go to somewhere between the 21.99% and the prior day's 1.59%. Today it was 16.38%. However, if we remove the two $0.1022 trades, the percentage moves to 29.00% as the trade volume drops to ~2,651K from ~4,631K. How much of this was an effect of snap decisions to sell when price dropped below $0.10 I can't say. I'm sure it had an effect.
Regarding average trade size, I was thinking we'd see it continue in the ~5K or so range. Yesterday we hit ~5.6K, as expected, but today even if we remove the two $0.1022 trades, we get to 19,086. I suspect some of this is that below $0.10 the "standard" present becomes 10K and many move trades go at that size or larger. Removing the only the premarket trade we had 81 out of 140 trades at 10K or greater, 57.86% of the trades. I've not been tracking this but my estimate is this is much higher than what I've been seeing on a regular basis  usually a higher percentage of 5K trades and a smaller percentage of 10K trades.
ARCA appeared today around 10:02 and stayed all day AFAICT. As usual they took the best offer, which had been $0.102, down to $0.101 immediately and then stepped it back up to be closer to the bid they undercut. They moved it to $0.1015 by 10:05. Then the tussle begins with the other offers coming in below. By 10:46 the top offers were $0.0994x10K ATDF, $0.0995x13K ARCA and $0.10x60K NITE. Today the best offer I saw got as low as $0.0965 (BTIG & NITE) at 12:11 with ARCA laying back at $0.098.
The bids did the usual adjustments to the pricing on the offers. At 09:52, before ARCA appeared, the $0.1007 bid hung around for quite a while. By 10:46 it had dropped to $0.0971. The low for the day was $0.096 (10:54 and 2:23).
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:2809:28: 1970622 shrs, 42.55% of vol, VWAP $0.1022, 000.0% buys
09:3209:57: 196100 shrs, 04.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1026, 034.2% buys
10:0210:15: 081900 shrs, 01.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1010, 072.4% buys
10:1610:25: 565500 shrs, 12.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1005, 045.2% buys
10:2610:57: 748900 shrs, 16.17% of vol, VWAP $0.0978, 092.9% buys
11:0111:13: 272746 shrs, 05.89% of vol, VWAP $0.0979, 062.2% buys
11:1811:33: 054080 shrs, 01.17% of vol, VWAP $0.0969, 039.0% buys
11:4912:09: 344260 shrs, 07.43% of vol, VWAP $0.0970, 041.5% buys
12:1112:23: 137940 shrs, 02.98% of vol, VWAP $0.0967, 063.0% buys
12:2612:58: 259060 shrs, 05.59% of vol, VWAP $0.0976, 035.5% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0950$0.0965: 259380 shrs, 05.60% of vol, VWAP $0.0962, 023.9% buys
$0.0970$0.0975: 711614 shrs, 15.37% of vol, VWAP $0.0973, 053.6% buys
$0.0980$0.0994: 845392 shrs, 18.25% of vol, VWAP $0.0980, 089.6% buys
$0.1000$0.1007: 326100 shrs, 07.04% of vol, VWAP $0.1001, 000.2% buys
$0.1010$0.1020: 385400 shrs, 08.32% of vol, VWAP $0.1011, 087.8% buys
$0.1022$0.1022: 1980622 shrs, 42.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1022, 000.5% buys
$0.1030$0.1040: 122600 shrs, 02.65% of vol, VWAP $0.1033, 032.6% buys
Today the original inflection point calculation changes over one day had all six periods weakening (sans two trades, all strengthening), and they were significant I think. The aggregate changes over 5 days had 5 periods with increasing weakness and one marginally improving (sans two trades, all strengthening). The rate of change over five days had four positive movements and two weakening movements (sans two trades, all strengthening).
My newer oneday calculations has all periods showing oneday weakening (sans two trades, two strengthening and four weakening). The aggregate change over five days have only two periods marginally improved and four weakening (sans two trades, two strengthening and four weakening). Rate of change for those periods has four periods showing marginal improvement and two with a bit more substantial weakening (sans two trades, three strengthening and tree weakening).
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. Note that without that 100K trade, the 12/13 VWAP would be $0.1134 and the buy percentage would be 25.9%.
11/21 $0.1136 +00.99% 47.2%
11/22 $0.1144 +00.66% 14.9%
11/25 $0.1145 +00.14% 34.9%
11/26 $0.1183 +03.28% 47.3%
11/27 $0.1172 00.96% 10.5%
11/29 $0.1184 +01.03% 19.3%
12/02 $0.1168 01.36% 28.4%
12/03 $0.1145 02.26% 23.0%
12/04 $0.1122 01.98% 28.0%
12/05 $0.1150 +02.50% 37.8%
12/06 $0.1141 00.78% 40.7%
12/09 $0.1151 +00.86% 45.9%
12/10 $0.1156 +00.42% 29.4%
12/11 $0.1139 01.47% 24.8%
12/12 $0.1120 01.66% 14.5%
12/13 $0.1125 +00.50% 38.7%
12/16 $0.1109 01.44% 25.8%
12/17 $0.1106 00.27% 19.2%
12/18 $0.1083 02.11% 32.9%
12/19 $0.1039 04.10% 17.0%
12/20 $0.1036 00.25% 24.0%
12/23 $0.1022 01.33% 32.0%
12/24 $0.1001 02.03% 34.3%
12/24 $0.0986 03.54% 59.6% (sans two trades)
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
12/23: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1117, x 85%: $0.0949
12/24: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1109, x 85%: $0.0943
12/24 sans two trades $0.0942)
Vol in K, for above days: 536.64 4,631.11 (short day, sans two trades 2,650.49).
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
12/23/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 95, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 29500, Vol: 536636, AvTrSz: 5649
Min. Pr: 0.1008, Max Pr: 0.1049, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1022
# Buys, Shares: 23 171750, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1027
# Sells, Shares: 72 364886, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1020
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.12 (32.0% "buys"), DlyShts 118000 (21.99%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 32.34%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0949 vs. $0.0955, $0.0961, $0.0966, $0.0970, $0.0974, $0.0978, $0.0981, $0.0984 and $0.0988 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0869 vs. $0.0881, $0.0883, $0.0921, $0.0940, $0.0943, $0.0957, $0.0952, $0.0968 and $0.0982 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
My pessimism from yesterday continues as all the numbers relating to price continue to deteriorate.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.30%, 1.96%, 1.33% 1.33%, 9.32% and 1412.82% respectively.
Discussing hitting 1.59% daily short sales yesterday I said "Normal now would be commencement of a choppy trend higher, although I suspect that with the holiday season in play it may not behave exactly as in the past. I don't know what to think is most likely  will it take longer to begin, rebound much more quickly or ...?". Today it made a substantial move towards a more normal range, catching the 50day average: 18.44%, 16.93%, 21.03% and 17.26% for the 10, 25, 50 and 100day respectively.
The daily short percentage came off the bottom, as expected. I'm guessing tomorrow it will drop to somewhere between today's percentage and yesterday's (1.59%).
Regarding average trade size, I said "It is now moving decidedly back to (below I think) more normal ranges. I'm thinking we'll soon see it in the ~5K, or even a bit smaller, range. This will not help sustain price". Today we hit ~5.6K.
ARCA appeared today at 09:45 but was gone by 10:21 today. They took the best offer, which had been $0.1048, immediately to $0.102. They moved it to $0.103 at 09:53. I think I've observed this before  they come in really lowball, wait a few minutes  maybe to see what the other offers are and/or the bids are doing  and adjust to a price closer to the next best offer. The result is usually the same though  other MM customer offer start coming in under ARCA's. In this case at 09:56 BTIG was offering at $0.1019 and ATDF was at $0.1029. At 1024 BTIG moved theirs up to $0.1024. Then, like our superheroes of yore I guess, ARCA said "My work is done here" and exited stage left around 10:21. They did not come back today.
After that the offers didn't move a lot, but they did slowly creep higher, getting as high as $0.104 after BTIG and ATDF quit elbowing each other sometime after 13:45. The we saw WABR  a newcomer for us who had been lurking at $0.105 all day  go to $0.1024 at 12:22, $0.1034 at 14:26 and $0.104 at 15:31. BTIG joined them at 15:40.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:58: 115400 shrs, 21.50% of vol, VWAP $0.1025, 022.1% buys
10:0810:54: 046300 shrs, 08.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1013, 021.6% buys
11:0011:51: 033900 shrs, 06.32% of vol, VWAP $0.1019, 038.3% buys
12:0112:24: 026500 shrs, 04.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1022, 075.5% buys
13:1613:59: 133300 shrs, 24.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1022, 053.3% buys
15:2315:30: 021200 shrs, 03.95% of vol, VWAP $0.1025, 000.0% buys
15:3115:45: 027336 shrs, 05.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1028, 008.2% buys
15:5215:58: 049800 shrs, 09.28% of vol, VWAP $0.1025, 001.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1008$0.1010: 074200 shrs, 13.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1009, 000.0% buys
$0.1020$0.1025: 418200 shrs, 77.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1022, 034.3% buys
$0.1034$0.1049: 044236 shrs, 08.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1044, 063.9% buys
My original inflection point calculations had an error introduced by Libraoffice spreadsheet that hadn't occurred for a long time. This affected the 12/1812/20 values. The details are just ahead of the daily postings. Briefly all my comments for those days would have been more negative and much of the volatility displayed disappeared.
Today the changes over one day had a three and three split of marginally weakening and strengthening readings  nothing significant though. The aggregate changes over 5 days had 5 periods with marginally reducing weakness and one marginally weakening. The rate of change over five days had small positive movements across all periods.
My newer oneday calculations has only one period showing a oneday improvement. All changes are very small. The aggregate change over five days have five periods improved and one essentially flat. Rate of change for those periods has all periods showing improvement.
I continue to think these should not be interpreted as strengthening though  just a reduced rate of weakening, in general.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. Note that without that 100K trade, the 12/13 VWAP would be $0.1134 and the buy percentage would be 25.9%.
11/21 $0.1136 +00.99% 47.2%
11/22 $0.1144 +00.66% 14.9%
11/25 $0.1145 +00.14% 34.9%
11/26 $0.1183 +03.28% 47.3%
11/27 $0.1172 00.96% 10.5%
11/29 $0.1184 +01.03% 19.3%
12/02 $0.1168 01.36% 28.4%
12/03 $0.1145 02.26% 23.0%
12/04 $0.1122 01.98% 28.0%
12/05 $0.1150 +02.50% 37.8%
12/06 $0.1141 00.78% 40.7%
12/09 $0.1151 +00.86% 45.9%
12/10 $0.1156 +00.42% 29.4%
12/11 $0.1139 01.47% 24.8%
12/12 $0.1120 01.66% 14.5%
12/13 $0.1125 +00.50% 38.7%
12/16 $0.1109 01.44% 25.8%
12/17 $0.1106 00.27% 19.2%
12/18 $0.1083 02.11% 32.9%
12/19 $0.1039 04.10% 17.0%
12/20 $0.1036 00.25% 24.0%
12/23 $0.1022 01.33% 32.0%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
12/23: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1117, x 85%: $0.0949
Vol, in K, for above days: 536.64.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
12/20/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 80, MinTrSz: 800, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol: 490906, AvTrSz: 6136
Min. Pr: 0.1011, Max Pr: 0.1070, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1036
# Buys, Shares: 16 117765, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1054
# Sells, Shares: 63 371541, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1030
# Unkn, Shares: 1 1600, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1025
Buy:Sell 1:3.15 (24.0% "buys"), DlyShts 7800 (01.59%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 2.10%
There's a combination of my experimental stuff that I think strongly suggests a continued nearterm downward price trend. On my charts, the combination of volume, short sales percentage, buy percentage averages, and trade size averages make me think this is the case.
Most concerning are behaviors of daily short sales percentage averages and buy percentage averages.
The daily short sale percentages have the 10 and 25day periods both now trending lower and will shortly move below the 50 and 100day averages I think. It may take longer than would be expected because today's daily short percentage hit the cellar again and the normal subsequent action is a choppy trend higher to intersect, or surpass, the trend lines I've got on the charts. I'm suspecting the leg up, when it begins, will be weak and not hit one of those trend lines for a longer time than normal.
The buy percentage averages have the 10day dropping below the lower bound of "normal". In the past this has been a "double dipper"  making an initial penetration, recovering and then falling below the line again. Generally, price weakness accompanies this behavior.
Add in the volume deterioration which has trended long enough recently to begin affecting both its shortterm averages, the 10 and 25day, causing them both to drop below the 50 and 100day averages. The holiday season won't help this situation.
Another metric, less significant I think, is the average trade size. We just had a huge spike over the last week or so that included taking out a 400K standing offer at $0.11, as well as some others at that price, bringing the aggregate total to around 850K, in just two days, 12/1612/17. Moreover all better bids "protecting" that $0.11 price level, which had been in play for a very long time, were exhausted.
The average trade size has come way off the sizes caused by these recent larger block trades. It is now moving decidedly back to (below I think) more normal ranges. I'm thinking we'll soon see it in the ~5K, or even a bit smaller, range. This will not help sustain price.
On 2/18 we hit the $0.10xx range. The 12/19 low was $0.1010 and a VWAP nadir, so far, of $0.1036 was hit the following day, 12/20.
I now reprise what I mentioned some time back: my examination of past trends shows that when we revisited past alltime lows we surpassed the old mark.
I had mentioned that following the daily short sales percentage "peaking" (in this case hitting or exceeding my trend lines) "Normal behavior would be to start a short percentage down leg, which has usually been accompanied by lowering of the VWAP and price range. Today's drop of the short percentage by about half suggests the usual trend and behavior are in play".
Today we took out the second half of the down leg, hitting 1.59% daily short sales. Normal now would be commencement of a choppy trend higher, although I suspect that with the holiday season in play it may not behave exactly as in the past. I don't know what to think is most likely  will it take longer to begin, rebound much more quickly or ...?
The low, high and VWAP today moved +0.10%, 2.64% and 0.25% respectively. There were again some trades that one could argue were outliers but the volume and number of trades were sufficient to make me think there was no reason to examine what effects come from removing them. Today's spread of 5.84% and VWAP of $0.1036 and the intraday trading breakdowns should suffice.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0955 vs. $0.0961, $0.0966, $0.0970, $0.0974, $0.0978, $0.0981, $0.0984, $0.0988 and $0.0990 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0881 vs. $0.0883, $0.0921, $0.0940, $0.0943, $0.0957, $0.0952, $0.0968, $0.0982 and $0.0978 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
My longterm descending resistance is still in play. The day's range topped, AFAICT, right at the line, making it $0.107 today and descending. So we traded completely below it but for one $0.107 25K trade at 12:22.
My mediumterm descending support, ~$0.105 now, is officially "busted" with two consecutive closes below. I had been hoping this would hold.
The only TA support point, made with new alltime lows 10/810/10, has not been tested since it was made. With the PIPErs in play and the 85% pricing to them going on, the stuff discussed above about the longterm pattern of always surpassing prior alltime lows when revisited, my experimental charts, ... I really don't expect that $0.10 to hold.
Today's VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.25%, 52.90% and 95.59% respectively.
Our low and high moved 0.10% and 2.64% respectively.
ARCA appeared today around 12:24 today and immediately undercut the best offer of $0.1069 with a $0.105 offer, after ATDF had managed two sells totaling 10K at $0.106.
After posting offers down to $0.104, ARCA out from 12:35  13:12. best offer moved up to $0.1049. When ARCA came back, they again undercut a $0.1049 best offer (based on trades that went off that were "buys"  I didn't actually see those offers), this time with a $0.103. ARCA exited again at 13:53. Subsequently I saw offers get as high as $0.0150 again. As usual, the damage that was done could not be effectively offset.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:42: 059700 shrs, 12.16% of vol, VWAP $0.1042, 016.8% buys
10:0711:15: 083906 shrs, 17.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1052, 025.5% buys
11:1812:22: 057500 shrs, 11.71% of vol, VWAP $0.1054, 060.9% buys
12:3712:59: 043800 shrs, 08.92% of vol, VWAP $0.1026, 025.1% buys
13:0013:59: 086400 shrs, 17.60% of vol, VWAP $0.1027, 011.6% buys
14:0114:59: 035300 shrs, 07.19% of vol, VWAP $0.1023, 007.9% buys
15:0115:40: 065300 shrs, 13.30% of vol, VWAP $0.1037, 042.3% buys
15:4115:55: 059000 shrs, 12.02% of vol, VWAP $0.1016, 000.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1011$0.1016: 068700 shrs, 13.99% of vol, VWAP $0.1013, 000.0% buys
$0.1020$0.1026: 110800 shrs, 22.57% of vol, VWAP $0.1024, 000.0% buys
$0.1030$0.1031: 099200 shrs, 20.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1030, 007.9% buys
$0.1040$0.1049: 081800 shrs, 16.66% of vol, VWAP $0.1042, 045.4% buys
$0.1050$0.1057: 095406 shrs, 19.43% of vol, VWAP $0.1054, 039.7% buys
$0.1069$0.1070: 035000 shrs, 07.13% of vol, VWAP $0.1070, 100.0% buys
Of my original inflection point calculations, I said yesterday "... semblance of sanity is returning  three have minuscule strengthening and three weakening marginally  an effect of the reducing volume and buy percentage". Today return to sanity continues with oneday changes showing three weakening  5, 50 and 100day, two flat  10 and 200day, and the 25day marginally strengthening .
The changes over five days also continue returning to sanity with all periods but the 25day showing weakening. Yesterday all six were showing improvement! The rates of change over match  only the 25day suggesting improvement whereas yesterday there were five showing improvement.
My newer oneday calculations are showing the effects of the volatility in the additional factors it considers. Yesterday had five weakening and only one improving marginally, the fiveday period. Today minuscule improvements appear in all six periods. Aggregate change over five days yesterday is three and three weakening vs. strengthening and yesterday had all six periods weakening. The rate of change has five weakening vs. yesterday's five improvements.
These should not be interpreted as strengthening though  just a reduced rate of weakening, in general.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. Note that without that 100K trade, the 12/13 VWAP would be $0.1134 and the buy percentage would be 25.9%.
11/21 $0.1136 +00.99% 47.2%
11/22 $0.1144 +00.66% 14.9%
11/25 $0.1145 +00.14% 34.9%
11/26 $0.1183 +03.28% 47.3%
11/27 $0.1172 00.96% 10.5%
11/29 $0.1184 +01.03% 19.3%
12/02 $0.1168 01.36% 28.4%
12/03 $0.1145 02.26% 23.0%
12/04 $0.1122 01.98% 28.0%
12/05 $0.1150 +02.50% 37.8%
12/06 $0.1141 00.78% 40.7%
12/09 $0.1151 +00.86% 45.9%
12/10 $0.1156 +00.42% 29.4%
12/11 $0.1139 01.47% 24.8%
12/12 $0.1120 01.66% 14.5%
12/13 $0.1125 +00.50% 38.7%
12/16 $0.1109 01.44% 25.8%
12/17 $0.1106 00.27% 19.2%
12/18 $0.1083 02.11% 32.9%
12/19 $0.1039 04.10% 17.0%
12/20 $0.1036 00.25% 24.0%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
12/16: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1146, x 85%: $0.0974
12/17: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1142, x 85%: $0.0970
12/18: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1137, x 85%: $0.0966
12/19: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1130, x 85%: $0.0961
12/20: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1123, x 85%: $0.0955
Vol, in K, for above days: 625.46 1,786.27 1,863.21 1042.42 490.91.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
12/19/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 96, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 78200, Vol: 1042371, AvTrSz: 10858
Min. Pr: 0.1010, Max Pr: 0.1099, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1039
# Buys, Shares: 15 177544, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1043
# Sells, Shares: 78 844925, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1038
# Unkn, Shares: 3 19951, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1032
Buy:Sell 1:4.76 (17.0% "buys"), DlyShts 176895 (16.97%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 20.94%
There was an aftermarket trade of 1K that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,041,371 to 1,042,371 and would lower the short percentage from 16.99% to 16.97%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 176,895 to 177,895 and the short percentage would be 17.66%.
My quick assessment yesterday that we would continue lower was bolstered by today's daily short sales behavior. Recall that yesterday's short percentage, 32.66% (after getting corrected FINRA data that John Petersen noted was in error on the original data), bumped the descending longerterm trend line I have on the volume and short chart. Normal behavior would be to start a short percentage down leg, which has usually been accompanied by lowering of the VWAP and price range. Today's drop of the short percentage by about half suggests the usual trend and behavior are in play.
Sure enough the low, high and VWAP today moved down 3.81%, 5.09% and 4.10% respectively. This is in step with yesterday's feelings when we went to less than $0.11 and I said there was no wiggle room associated with the move. But see below for the effect on the high if we exclude the only trade above $0.1060, 600 shares at $0.1099.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0961 vs. $0.0966, $0.0970, $0.0974, $0.0978, $0.0981, $0.0984, $0.0988, $0.0990 and $0.0994 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0883 vs. $0.0921, $0.0940, $0.0943, $0.0957, $0.0952, $0.0968, $0.0982, $0.0978 and $0.0970 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's high is misleading. Total shares traded above $0.106 were only 600 at $0.1099 in one trade.
I had mentioned yesterday that my descending resistance, previously roughly ~$0.1105 and now ~1090 AFAICT, might still be in play. The day's range, excluding that one 600 share trade, was completely below it. But I also said "... I suspect I won't need to think of it again nearterm, except when we start to reverse and may act as resistance again. For now, I think we have a few days where it will not be a factor". FAIL on that one, unless I conveniently ignore those oddball trades that crop up regularly above the rest of the day's trading range.
Today's VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 4.10%, 44.05% and 70.93% respectively. The 600 share trade mentioned above at greater than $0.106 was too small to affect our VWAP, so no examination of it's effects is warranted.
Our low and high moved 3.81% and 5.09% respectively. Without the 600 share trade above $0.106 mentioned above the high would've been down 8.46%. Our spread was 8.81%, 4.95% without that 600 share trade.
ARCA appeared today around 09:42 today. They stepped out from 10:33  11:00 and 10:59  12:05. Otherwise they were present all day AFAICT. On first appearance they immediately took best offer down from $0.1085 to $0.106. As with yesterday, others apparently recognized the meaning and started joining them: CDEL immediately, BTIG @ 10:27, ATDF stepped in front at 11:30 with at $0.1099 when ARCA screwed up and moved to $0.11  ARCA doesn't all that frequently move up. But ARCA immediately recovered form, after ATDF got off one 600 share trade, a "buy" at $0.1099, with a $0.107 undercut. From 13:05 forward, ARCA had to be more aggressive as, at various times, ATDF and BTIG stepped ahead of ARCA.
And that is how we got to $0.101 from 15:08 to 15:13 today.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:48: 072050 shrs, 06.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1052, 001.4% buys
10:2911:38: 022920 shrs, 02.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1060, 086.9% buys
11:4512:58: 142900 shrs, 13.71% of vol, VWAP $0.1052, 005.4% buys
13:0413:49: 337300 shrs, 32.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1050, 005.6% buys
13:5313:54: 130650 shrs, 12.53% of vol, VWAP $0.1033, 045.9% buys
14:1114:56: 059951 shrs, 05.75% of vol, VWAP $0.1026, 050.0% buys
15:0115:13: 173549 shrs, 16.65% of vol, VWAP $0.1011, 000.0% buys
15:2715:44: 055500 shrs, 05.32% of vol, VWAP $0.1021, 004.6% buys
15:4716:00: 047600 shrs, 04.57% of vol, VWAP $0.1042, 075.6% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1010$0.1015: 154549 shrs, 14.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1010, 000.0% buys
$0.1020$0.1020: 119676 shrs, 11.48% of vol, VWAP $0.1020, 004.2% buys
$0.1020$0.1039: 163125 shrs, 15.65% of vol, VWAP $0.1034, 054.5% buys
$0.1040$0.1056: 541550 shrs, 51.95% of vol, VWAP $0.1050, 010.2% buys
$0.1060$0.1099: 063620 shrs, 06.10% of vol, VWAP $0.1060, 045.0% buys
Continuing to try and find something for the perennial optimists among us, I mention again a mediumterm descending support line that originated back in August that was penetrated by the to $0.10 and above which price remained since 10/11. We touched upon it 12/18 and moved above. Most of the trading was above it.
I said yesterday though "I will not be placing any bets it holds, but optimists might choose to do so, sans any other supporting factors  there are none".
That's the end of the glass half full view though. Today our trading was completely below that line if we remove the one 600 share trade at $0.1099. The line appears to reside at $0.1061 and our highest price sans the one trade was $0.1060. The open and close were both below it.
It's rate of descent is very slow so it looks like tomorrow will be around $0.1055. Let's hope that provides some support.
On my experimental stuff, the average trade size was affected by 10 larger trades (anything above 30K in size). We did have trades as large as recently seen though. Here's the larger trades by price: $0.1010 45K, 50K; $0.1039 60K; $0.1045 36K; $0.1050 34K, 38K, 53.1K, 69.4K, 76.2K and 78.2K.
Yesterday I got a chuckle out of my original inflection point calculations, noting "... With the buy percentage moving from Monday's and Tuesday's 25.8% and 19.2%, the oneday changes went to all six periods strengthening, from yesterday's all weakening". Well, today some semblance of sanity is returning  three have minuscule strengthening and three weakening marginally  an effect of the reducing volume and buy percentage.
The changes over five days were hardly better yesterday  five showing improvement. Today all six show improvement! The rates of change over five days were split three and three improvement and deterioration. Today they have five showing improvement.
I continue chuckling.
I noted yesterday my newer calculations did much better in the changes over one day  only two showing improvement and four weakening. Today continues what I think is a better picture of reality: five weakening and only one improving, the fiveday period. It's a very marginal improvement though. Aggregate change over five days yesterday had four weakening and the remaining two showing just marginally reduced weakening behavior. Today has all six periods weakening. The rate of change has five improvements. These should not be interpreted as strengthening though  just a reduced rate of weakening, in general.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. Note that without that 100K trade, the 12/13 VWAP would be $0.1134 and the buy percentage would be 25.9%.
11/21 $0.1136 +00.99% 47.2%
11/22 $0.1144 +00.66% 14.9%
11/25 $0.1145 +00.14% 34.9%
11/26 $0.1183 +03.28% 47.3%
11/27 $0.1172 00.96% 10.5%
11/29 $0.1184 +01.03% 19.3%
12/02 $0.1168 01.36% 28.4%
12/03 $0.1145 02.26% 23.0%
12/04 $0.1122 01.98% 28.0%
12/05 $0.1150 +02.50% 37.8%
12/06 $0.1141 00.78% 40.7%
12/09 $0.1151 +00.86% 45.9%
12/10 $0.1156 +00.42% 29.4%
12/11 $0.1139 01.47% 24.8%
12/12 $0.1120 01.66% 14.5%
12/13 $0.1125 +00.50% 38.7%
12/16 $0.1109 01.44% 25.8%
12/17 $0.1106 00.27% 19.2%
12/18 $0.1083 02.11% 32.9%
12/19 $0.1039 04.10% 17.0%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
12/16: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1146, x 85%: $0.0974
12/17: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1142, x 85%: $0.0970
12/18: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1137, x 85%: $0.0966
12/19: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1130, x 85%: $0.0961
Vol, in K, for above days: 625.46 1,786.27 1,863.21 1042.42.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
12/18/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 142, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 160000, Vol: 1863209, AvTrSz: 13121
Min. Pr: 0.1050, Max Pr: 0.1158, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1083
# Buys, Shares: 52 612464, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1085
# Sells, Shares: 89 1242745, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1082
# Unkn, Shares: 1 8000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1080
Buy:Sell 1:2.03 (32.9% "buys"), DlyShts 608464 (32.66%), , Dly Sht % of 'sells' 48.96%
FINRAreported data was missing part of the trade and daily short volume. I missed this discrepancy and John Petersen pointed it out to me. Only a few items are affected because I use my calculated volume for most things. The above summary data has been corrected. Originally reported values were:
 FINRA partial file err made % of sells, 35.06%
 FINRA partial file err had shorts 43572, 23.39%
 Dly Sht % of 'sells' was 35.06%
My quick assessment is we are not done going down. The summary of why ...
Well, my pessimism a couple days back about going to less than $0.11 bore fruit today, if we can phrase it that way. And it was decidedly done, with no wiggle room available  on high volume, a VWAP down 2.11%, offers falling twelve times versus four rises, larger trades (evidenced by average trade size substantially above the 10, 25, 50 and 100day averages of 9087, 8907, 8945 and 7882 respectively), although not near the 400K yesterday  that one trade and others at $0.11 yesterday completed the takeout of our ~870K cushion at that price.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0966 vs. $0.0970, $0.0974, $0.0978, $0.0981, $0.0984, $0.0988, $0.0990, $0.0994 and $0.0992 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0921 vs. $0.0940, $0.0943, $0.0957, $0.0952, $0.0968, $0.0982, $0.0978, $0.0970 and 0.0978 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Needless to say, the 50day SMA ($0.1186) will no longer be a concern for me, if what I believe is coming does come.
Today's high is misleading. Total shares traded above $0.112 were only 18.8K  15K @ $0.1138, 1.8K @ $0.1150 and 2K @ $0.1158.
Unfortunately, my descending resistance, roughly ~$0.1105, may still be in play. The day's range was both above (but little if we remove those three trades from consideration) and below it. But again, I suspect I won't need to think of it again nearterm, except when we start to reverse and will may act as resistance again. For now, I think we have a few days where it will not be a factor.
We took easily took out the rest of our $0.11 "cushion" today, roughly 310K if I estimated correctly. Couldn't catch all the details today, so I'm uncertain as to the precise number.
Today's VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.11%, 6.39% and 84.08% respectively. Without the three trades mentioned above at greater than $0.1120 our VWAP would have been $0.1082 and been down moved about 2.20% instead of the 2.11% we got.
Our low and high moved 4.55% and +1.67% respectively. Without those three trades I mentioned the high would've been $0.112, DOWN 1.67% instead of UP. Our spread was 10.29%, although that's really not useful knowledge today.
ARCA appeared today sometime around 11:49 today  I didn't catch exactly when. The effect appears immediately in the trading breakdown by time. They stayed in the market the rest of the day and was on top of the heap every time I checked. Others joined them early on, including including NITE (12:11), BTIG (13:21), BNCH (15:05) and CDEL (15:50). The other rotated in and out. ATDF sat back and watched it from the cheap seats.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3110:58: 104720 shrs, 05.62% of vol, VWAP $0.1104, 003.6% buys
11:0211:41: 103600 shrs, 05.56% of vol, VWAP $0.1114, 014.5% buys
11:4911:55: 522141 shrs, 28.02% of vol, VWAP $0.1099, 011.1% buys
12:0212:29: 427871 shrs, 22.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1090, 071.8% buys
12:3512:49: 096600 shrs, 05.18% of vol, VWAP $0.1071, 010.4% buys
12:5013:25: 355542 shrs, 19.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1056, 014.1% buys
13:4514:15: 110500 shrs, 05.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1053, 049.3% buys
14:1715:54: 142235 shrs, 07.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1064, 080.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1050$0.1056: 425541 shrs, 22.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1053, 012.3% buys
$0.1060$0.1070: 319336 shrs, 17.14% of vol, VWAP $0.1068, 051.9% buys
$0.1080$0.1083: 115771 shrs, 06.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1081, 072.8% buys
$0.1090$0.1103: 893661 shrs, 47.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1099, 032.6% buys
$0.1110$0.1112: 090100 shrs, 04.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1110, 000.0% buys
$0.1138$0.1158: 018800 shrs, 01.01% of vol, VWAP $0.1141, 100.0% buys
On the traditional TA front, nothing positive to say EXCEPT for the perennial optimists among us. I have a mediumterm descending support line that originated back in August that was penetrated by the 10/810/10 foray to $0.10 and above which price recovered by 10/11. We had not dropped below it since and did not today. Our low sat right on it.
I will not be placing any bets it holds, but optimists might choose to do so, sans any other supporting factors  there are none.
On my experimental stuff, the average trade size was affected by 15 larger trades (anything above 30K in size) totaling 910,169. There were four less than 40K, three in the 40K range, five of 50K each, and one each of 105K, ~113.7K and 160K. Excluding all those trades would yield an average trade size of 7,504  a reasonable approximation of behavior prior to Tuesday.
A laugh is provided by my original inflection point calculations, which only look at buy:sell and volume. With the buy percentage moving from Monday's and Tuesday's 25.8% and 19.2%, the oneday changes went to all six periods strengthening, from yesterday's all weakening. The changes over five days were hardly better  five showing improvement vs. continued weakening yesterday. The rates of change over five days are split three and three improvement and deterioration.
My newer calculations did much better in the changes over one day  only two showing improvement and four weakening. Much more rational. Aggregate change over five days, which yesterday continued all more negative, still has four weakening and the remaining two showing just marginally reduced weakening behavior. The rate of change mimics that profile.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. Note that without that 100K trade, the 12/13 VWAP would be $0.1134 and the buy percentage would be 25.9%.
11/21 $0.1136 +00.99% 47.2%
11/22 $0.1144 +00.66% 14.9%
11/25 $0.1145 +00.14% 34.9%
11/26 $0.1183 +03.28% 47.3%
11/27 $0.1172 00.96% 10.5%
11/29 $0.1184 +01.03% 19.3%
12/02 $0.1168 01.36% 28.4%
12/03 $0.1145 02.26% 23.0%
12/04 $0.1122 01.98% 28.0%
12/05 $0.1150 +02.50% 37.8%
12/06 $0.1141 00.78% 40.7%
12/09 $0.1151 +00.86% 45.9%
12/10 $0.1156 +00.42% 29.4%
12/11 $0.1139 01.47% 24.8%
12/12 $0.1120 01.66% 14.5%
12/13 $0.1125 +00.50% 38.7%
12/16 $0.1109 01.44% 25.8%
12/17 $0.1106 00.27% 19.2%
12/18 $0.1083 02.11% 32.9%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
12/16: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1146, x 85%: $0.0974
12/17: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1142, x 85%: $0.0970
12/18: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1137, x 85%: $0.0966
Vol, in K, for above days: 625.46 1,786.27 1,863.21.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
12/17/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 106, MinTrSz: 131, MaxTrSz: 400000, Vol: 1751272, AvTrSz: 16521
Min. Pr: 0.1100, Max Pr: 0.1139, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1106
# Buys, Shares: 26 336964, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1113
# Sells, Shares: 78 1365288, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1105
# Unkn, Shares: 2 49020, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1110
Buy:Sell 1:4.05 (19.2% "buys"), DlyShts 236700 (13.52%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 17.34%
There were apparently 35K shares in canceled trades today which I have no way to identify. So I don't know the number of trades involved, what price they were at, whether they were buys, sells or unknown. The quantity is small enough, relative to today's volume that the error introduced should be minor.
What I've done is proportionally adjust all derived data, but not raw input. So, e.g. I recorded 106 trades and left it unchanged, along with number of buys, sells, ... Derived figures, such as shares and dollar value of buys, sells, ... have been proportionally adjusted. Should be good enough for government work.
Yesterday I gave up on "wait and see" for the volatility in my experimental inflection points to abate and said "I've tried to avoid expressing this assessment much too long now  we are heading below $0.11 very soon IMO".
Nothing today makes me change my mind.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0970 vs. $0.0974, $0.0978, $0.0981, $0.0984, $0.0988, $0.0990, $0.0994, $0.0992 and $0.0987 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0940 vs. $0.0943, $0.0957, $0.0952, $0.0968 vs. $0.0982, $0.0978, $0.0970, 0.0978 and $0.0954 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
We are continuing to trade below the 50day SMA (unchanged today at $0.1187, down from the prior $0.1188, $0.1189 and $0.1190). Today's high was down almost 1/2 penny below that average. Yesterday was precisely 1/2 half penny. I can't tell if today's high was still below my longterm descending resistance. I think it was above because yesterday seemed to stop right there and today's high was 4/100ths of a penny above yesterday's high. I can say that the VWAP was below it and that the number of trades and shares above yesterdays high was one trade for 10K at $11.39. All other trades were $0.1120 or less and that price level is below my descending resistance.
We took out some more of our $0.11 "cushion" today, 503,131. Combined with yesterdays 42.4K shares, we should be down to roughly 310K if nobody that had those orders in changes their mind.
Today's VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.27%, 185.59% and 65.16% respectively. Without the one 10K trade at $0.1139 our VWAP would have moved about 0.85%.
Our low and high moved 0.00% and 0.35% respectively. Our spread 3.55% vs. yesterday's 3.18% and before that 1.79%, 3.15% and 2.57%. I think this wider spread with lower high and low suggests we'll break below $0.11 soon. Part of that is thinking that some of the traders and investors will abandon the $0.11 bids they've had in for so long. They were good bids if one believed it would plummet to that level and quickly bounce back above. With what's been happening I don't think many believe that any longer.
Without the 10K at $0.1139 our high would've been down 1.32% and our spread would've been 1.82%.
ARCA appeared today at 10:03 and again got immediately nasty, dropping the offer from $0.1139 to $0.112 in a single move, similar to yesterday. Then they were joined by BTIG and CSTI in a few minutes and there they sat until CSTI broke free and moved the offer to $0.1115 at 11:03. ARCA never gained the top again as BTIG and CSTI had the offer at $0.111 at 11:26 and ARCA left the scene. The damage had been done and offers never exceeded $0.112 again and that was seen only briefly at 14:33.
The usual ARCA effects can be seen in the VWAPs in the trading breakdown by time beginning at 10:03.
The high bid today was again $0.1115  most of the day it was at or below $0.111.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:35: 078131 shrs, 04.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1110, 010.2% buys
09:3509:38: 508000 shrs, 28.44% of vol, VWAP $0.1100, 001.0% buys
09:4009:50: 135000 shrs, 07.56% of vol, VWAP $0.1116, 014.8% buys
10:0310:52: 250880 shrs, 14.04% of vol, VWAP $0.1110, 013.3% buys
11:0211:26: 212007 shrs, 11.87% of vol, VWAP $0.1107, 005.9% buys
11:3612:31: 071200 shrs, 03.99% of vol, VWAP $0.1105, 016.4% buys
12:4112:49: 089000 shrs, 04.98% of vol, VWAP $0.1107, 042.7% buys
13:1913:55: 153975 shrs, 08.62% of vol, VWAP $0.1110, 055.2% buys
14:0814:51: 214179 shrs, 11.99% of vol, VWAP $0.1105, 037.4% buys
15:1316:05: 073900 shrs, 04.14% of vol, VWAP $0.1111, 067.7% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1100$0.1100: 503131 shrs, 28.17% of vol, VWAP $0.1100, 000.0% buys
$0.1101$0.1109: 501775 shrs, 28.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1103, 002.0% buys
$0.1110$0.1110: 492382 shrs, 27.56% of vol, VWAP $0.1110, 041.6% buys
$0.1111$0.1119: 250604 shrs, 14.03% of vol, VWAP $0.1116, 038.1% buys
$0.1120$0.1139: 038380 shrs, 02.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1125, 087.0% buys
On the traditional TA front, all the oscillators I watch continued to weaken today  again no exceptions  and Williams %R and stochastic stayed flat in oversold territory, which they entered in the last several days.
On my experimental stuff, the average trade size popped up outrageously due to the 400K trade. Today it shows 16,521 vs. yesterday's 6,193. Because of other larger trades at 80K, 60K, several 50K we still have an average trade size of 12,869 when the 400K is removed.
My original inflection point calculations for oneday changes went to all six periods weakening, from yesterday's five. The changes over five days continues weakening in all periods seen yesterday, as do all the rates of change over five days.
My newer calculations oddly has only two periods showing oneday weakening, a slight improvement from yesterday. However, aggregate change over five days continued all more negative, just like yesterday which had switched from the prior all positive. The rate of change also shows five periods with increasing weakening.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. Note that without that 100K trade, the 12/13 VWAP would be $0.1134 and the buy percentage would be 25.9%.
11/21 $0.1136 +00.99% 47.2%
11/22 $0.1144 +00.66% 14.9%
11/25 $0.1145 +00.14% 34.9%
11/26 $0.1183 +03.28% 47.3%
11/27 $0.1172 00.96% 10.5%
11/29 $0.1184 +01.03% 19.3%
12/02 $0.1168 01.36% 28.4%
12/03 $0.1145 02.26% 23.0%
12/04 $0.1122 01.98% 28.0%
12/05 $0.1150 +02.50% 37.8%
12/06 $0.1141 00.78% 40.7%
12/09 $0.1151 +00.86% 45.9%
12/10 $0.1156 +00.42% 29.4%
12/11 $0.1139 01.47% 24.8%
12/12 $0.1120 01.66% 14.5%
12/13 $0.1125 +00.50% 38.7%
12/16 $0.1109 01.44% 25.8%
12/17 $0.1106 00.27% 19.2%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
12/16: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1146, x 85%: $0.0974
12/17: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1142, x 85%: $0.0970
Vol, in K, for above days: 625.46 1,786.27.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here arein the latest daily post above.
12/16/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 101, MinTrSz: 800, MaxTrSz: 35000, Vol: 625460, AvTrSz: 6193
Min. Pr: 0.1100, Max Pr: 0.1135, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1109
# Buys, Shares: 22 161410, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1117
# Sells, Shares: 78 456550, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1106
# Unkn, Shares: 1 7500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1120
Buy:Sell 1:2.83 (25.8% "buys"), DlyShts 143312 (22.91%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 31.39%
The volatility still makes assessment uncertain  more "wait and see" seemed rational yesterday. Today I think not  I'm feeling strongly that with the original and newer versions of my inflection point calculations being so strongly in agreement, and other things such as trade size, volume, price declines, short behavior, ...
I've tried to avoid expressing this assessment much too long now  we are heading below $0.11 very soon IMO.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0974 vs. $0.0978, $0.0981, $0.0984, $0.0988, $0.0990, $0.0994, $0.0992, $0.0987 and $0.0986 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0943 vs. $0.0957, $0.0952, $0.0968 vs. $0.0982, $0.0978, $0.0970, 0.0978, $0.0954 and $0.0973 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
We are continuing to trade below the 50day SMA (now $0.1187, down from the prior $0.1188, $0.1189 and $0.1190). Today's high was over 1/2 penny below the average. We also continue trading below my longterm descending resistance. The highs now seem to have stopped right at it seven of the last eight days.
We took some out of our $0.11 "cushion" today  42,4K shares.
Today's VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 1.44%, +7.80% and 9.29% respectively. The volume is near the range where I had hoped it would be over the last couple of weeks, but it seems it's now too late to be of any help in avoiding going below $0.11. That's my best assessment now.
Our low and high moved, 1.79% and 0.44% respectively. Our spread opened to 3.18% vs. yesterday's 1.79% and before that 3.15% and 2.57%. I think this wider spread with lower high and low suggests we'll break below $0.11 soon. Part of that is thinking that some of the traders and investors will abandon the $0.11 bids they've had in for so long. They were good bids if one believed it would plummet to that level and quickly bounce back above. With what's been happening I don't think many believe that any longer.
ARCA appeared today at 09:43 and got immediately nasty, dropping the offer from #0.1115 to $0.1107 in a single move. Then they immediately joined BTIG at $0.1115 when the $0.1107 was taken and exhausted immediately. They offered $0.1107 again at 10:11 and was out of the market at 11:43. But they came right back at 11:52 with an offer of $0.1105, undercutting the $0.1115 that had been standing. At 12:04, gone again.
They returned at 15:42 with a $0.1105 offer again.
I've concluded that: since so few of their offers are taken, over a long period now; since they so seldom put offers anywhere other than at the lowest price; since they seldom leave their offers in place when others step ahead of them and they usually undercut them with a changed offer when that happens ...
Someone at ARCA has the intent of forcing selling at lower prices  anyone who really wants to sell must trade across these everfalling offers if they want to get shed of shares. The question arises "why". One possibility is making sure they get their money back regardless of profit. I suspect that they, or someone related, is sitting on the bid through another MM (since ARCA is almost never on the bid) accumulating shares.
I'll never know though.
The usual ARCA effects can be seen in the VWAPs very early in the day. "Lateday weakness" began at 09:06 today.
The high bid today was $0.1115  most of the day it was below $0.111  another effect of ARCA's behavior. Offers began the day at $0.1135. After ARCA's first appearance the highest was $0.1115 most of the day and hit $0.1121 nine minutes before the close.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:35: 070300 shrs, 11.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1123, 071.1% buys
09:3709:43: 048000 shrs, 07.67% of vol, VWAP $0.1106, 062.9% buys
09:4810:28: 027150 shrs, 04.34% of vol, VWAP $0.1108, 003.7% buys
10:3911:43: 033000 shrs, 05.28% of vol, VWAP $0.1108, 015.2% buys
11:5111:51: 041088 shrs, 06.57% of vol, VWAP $0.1101, 000.0% buys
11:5212:46: 119112 shrs, 19.04% of vol, VWAP $0.1105, 001.3% buys
12:4713:31: 101210 shrs, 16.18% of vol, VWAP $0.1115, 056.4% buys
13:4014:47: 028000 shrs, 04.48% of vol, VWAP $0.1110, 000.0% buys
14:4815:39: 061300 shrs, 09.80% of vol, VWAP $0.1108, 026.9% buys
15:4015:57: 096300 shrs, 15.40% of vol, VWAP $0.1105, 000.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1100$0.1100: 042400 shrs, 06.78% of vol, VWAP $0.1100, 000.0% buys
$0.1101$0.1108: 336450 shrs, 53.79% of vol, VWAP $0.1105, 009.0% buys
$0.1110$0.1110: 095500 shrs, 15.27% of vol, VWAP $0.1110, 018.8% buys
$0.1115$0.1120: 092400 shrs, 14.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1118, 067.6% buys
$0.1121$0.1135: 058710 shrs, 09.39% of vol, VWAP $0.1125, 086.4% buys
On the traditional TA front, I mentioned what I wanted to above except to say that all the oscillators I watch weakened today  no exceptions. Williams %R and stochastic are in oversold territory.
On my experimental stuff, the average trade size continues falling, now down to 6,198 from yesterday's 6,594, with the 100K trade  5,520 without it.
My original inflection point calculations for oneday changes move to five weakening and marginally improving. The changes over five days has all periods weakening, as does the rate of change over five days.
My newer calculations have all oneday periods weakening, as was the case yesterday. The aggregate change over five days went all negative from yesterday's all positive and the rate of change also shows all periods weakening.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. Note that without that 100K trade, the 12/13 VWAP would be $0.1134 and the buy percentage would be 25.9%.
11/20 $0.1125 02.57% 34.4%
11/21 $0.1136 +00.99% 47.2%
11/22 $0.1144 +00.66% 14.9%
11/25 $0.1145 +00.14% 34.9%
11/26 $0.1183 +03.28% 47.3%
11/27 $0.1172 00.96% 10.5%
11/29 $0.1184 +01.03% 19.3%
12/02 $0.1168 01.36% 28.4%
12/03 $0.1145 02.26% 23.0%
12/04 $0.1122 01.98% 28.0%
12/05 $0.1150 +02.50% 37.8%
12/06 $0.1141 00.78% 40.7%
12/09 $0.1151 +00.86% 45.9%
12/10 $0.1156 +00.42% 29.4%
12/11 $0.1139 01.47% 24.8%
12/12 $0.1120 01.66% 14.5%
12/13 $0.1125 +00.50% 38.7%
12/16 $0.1109 01.44% 25.8%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
12/09: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1165, x 85%: $0.0990
12/10: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1162, x 85%: $0.0988
12/11: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1158, x 85%: $0.0984
12/12: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1154, x 85%: $0.0981
12/13: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1150, x 85%: $0.0978
Vol, in K, for above days: 340.93 581.59 492.97 455.50 580.23.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
12/13/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 88, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 580230, AvTrSz: 6594
Min. Pr: 0.1120, Max Pr: 0.1140, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1125
# Buys, Shares: 31 224490, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1132
# Sells, Shares: 56 335740, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1121
# Unkn, Shares: 1 20000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1130
Buy:Sell 1:1.50 (38.7% "buys"), DlyShts 157990 (27.23%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 47.06%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0978 vs. $0.0981, $0.0984, $0.0988, $0.0990, $0.0994, $0.0992, $0.0987, $0.0986 and $0.0986 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0957 vs. $0.0952, $0.0968 vs. $0.0982, $0.0978, $0.0970, 0.0978, $0.0954, $0.0973 and $0.0992 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
We had another larger trade today, a "buy" of 100K @ $0.1130 at 14:49. This was almost half the volume in the $0.1130$0.1136 price range. Without it, the stats for that trading range, total trading volume, average trade size, ... would all be affected. I'll note its effects here and in other appropriate places.
The first effect is in the summary above:
# Trds: 87, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol: 480230, AvTrSz: 5520
# Buys, Shares: 30 124490, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1134
Buy:Sell 1:2.70 (25.9% "buys"), DlyShts 157990 (32.90%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 47.06%
Note because of the percentage of trading that 100K represents, the VWAP improves, the buy:sell deteriorates and daily short percentage bumps up. The only one I'm really thinking over is the daily short stuff. Since the trade was a sell, there's a good chance it was a short sale, as it appeared to be on that 150.7K trade seems to have been 12/6. Recall that FINRA daily short sales were not available at the time of composition of the 12/6 EDO stuff. I presumed the 150K trade was a short said "DlyShts EST. 296830 (30.47%),Dly Sht % of 'sells' est. 52.30%:", as seen in the links to comments included in the 12/6 posting.
When the FINRA data became available, I updated the blog entry and said "I was about 8% high, assuming the premarket trades were not short sales. If they are short sales, which I believe likely, the short sales bump to 284,800 and I end up about 4.2% too high".
My problem is that with the volume lower than I would like and a slowly sinking VWAP trend I can't decide if this trade is large enough to be useful in thinking "what's next". In dollar terms it's not that big a trade and 100K is not all that unusual either. If I think about things with it included, we have a short percentage that held in a reasonable range I wouldn't expect any big price move using that as a factor. In fact, it would fit right in my "normal" scenario because we re exiting from a low daily short range the last few days: 17.68%, 21.96% and 7.86%. This suggests nothing dire is all that imminent.
If I exclude that trade it's even less likely we'd see anything dire right away because the short percentage enters an even more favorable range, 32.9%. Note that on my chart that would put it again up against the descending higher trend line. Either way, we should be in a trend of generally falling daily short sales again if the prior patterns hold.
But with trade volume a bit below where I'd feel comfortable and daily short sales percentage averages way below the 3x%+ that I'd prefer to see, I don't feel comfortable saying "nothing dire". The averages are 20.50%, 18.76%, 20.85% and 18.00% for the 10, 25, 50 and 100day averages respectively.
I'm just going to walk away from that conundrum today  nothing else is reasonable I think.
Yesterday, regarding our ability to stay out of the $0.10xx range I said "We're still there, but it's turning into a skin of the teeth situation I think". We've got volume generally lower than I prefer, a compressing price range (low +0.90% and high 0.44% today) trend, continuing inability to trade other than predominately below the 50day SMA (now $0.1188, down from the prior $0.1189 and $0.1190, continually dropping and today's high and low well below that average), and a descending longterm resistance that we can't seem to get above (in fact the highs seem to have stopped right at it six of the last seven days)
And that's just the present stuff  what about future stuff. Well, we know the PIPErs have another great deal coming their way as today's 85% of the average of the 20 lowest VWAPs in 40day window continues its trek: today down another 1.61% on the week to $0.0978. Our "day before issue" price moved to $0.0957 today. That's the price that would be in effect for new issue or trueup shares if they were issued Monday. A 20% profit on that would require only an $0.1148 price. We have a lot of holiday time coming this month  low trading volume should become the rule. That gives lot of opportunity for price to be moving and low volume is quite often associated with price weakening.
Today's VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved +0.50%, +27.38% and +341.31% respectively.
Our low and high moved, +0.90% and 0.44% respectively. Our spread narrowed to 1.79% vs. yesterday's 3.15% and before that 2.57%.
ARCA appeared today around 14:41, my first spotting. Asks prior to that had bee running at or above $0.1136 and bids were steady at $0.1120$0.1121 in my observations. ARCA immediately put in an offer of $0.1125, dropped to $0.1121 by 15:20 and exited stageleft by 15:26, whereupon offers moved to $0.1135. But the damage had been done  offers deteriorated to $0.1125 again by 15:32 nd rose once to $0.1130 thereafter. The bids stayed static at $0.112.
The usual effects can be seen in the VWAPs beginning from the 14:0614:44 intraday trading breakdown entry.
In both breakdowns, by time and price, keep in mind the effect of the 14:49 100K @ $0.113 "buy".
The bids had almost no movement that I observed today  steady at $0.1121$0.1120 regardless of ARCA (and later ATDF, goaded on by TEJS and NITE actually trying to do a little trading of their own  ATDF was determined though) pushing offers to $0.1125 and then as low as $0.1121. Offers decreased ten times and increased only twice (a doubling of yesterday's increase!).
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:36: 013490 shrs, 02.32% of vol, VWAP $0.1137, 100.0% buys
10:1610:55: 021800 shrs, 03.76% of vol, VWAP $0.1135, 095.4% buys
11:0111:48: 058820 shrs, 10.14% of vol, VWAP $0.1125, 025.5% buys
12:1313:14: 018600 shrs, 03.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1132, 064.5% buys
13:1513:43: 030300 shrs, 05.22% of vol, VWAP $0.1130, 014.9% buys
14:0614:44: 164520 shrs, 28.35% of vol, VWAP $0.1124, 023.2% buys
14:4814:49: 108500 shrs, 18.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1130, 097.2% buys
14:5015:30: 055500 shrs, 09.57% of vol, VWAP $0.1121, 009.0% buys
15:3315:54: 108700 shrs, 18.73% of vol, VWAP $0.1121, 009.2% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1120$0.1120: 240600 shrs, 41.47% of vol, VWAP $0.1120, 000.0% buys
$0.1121$0.1125: 107540 shrs, 18.53% of vol, VWAP $0.1122, 020.0% buys
$0.1130$0.1136: 205200 shrs, 35.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1132, 085.8% buys
$0.1137$0.1140: 026890 shrs, 04.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1138, 100.0% buys
On the traditional TA front, the 50day SMA dropped to $0.1188 from the previous $0.1189 and $0.1190. We traded completely well below this falling average. Trading continues to be below the 50day SMA since 11/18.
The VWAP averages (5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200day) might be useful: $0.1138, $0.1142, $0.1163, $0.1201, $0.1290 and $0.1824. Sorry  I didn't mean to torture with that 200day average!
Trading today completely at and below my longterm descending resistance AFAICT. That puts it at $0.114.
All the oscillators I watch except Williams %R and MFI weakened a bit. The MFI strengthened a bit and the %R was flat from yesterday's reading. I had mentioned the stochastic should enter oversold soon  20 or below and now it's ~22.9 and descending.
On my experimental stuff, the average trade size dropped to 6,594, 20.39% even with the 100K trade. Without it we drop to 5,520.
My original inflection point calculations for oneday changes move to three improved and three reducing from yesterdays two and four respectively. The changes over five days has only two weakening and four improving vs. yesterdays five periods weakening. The rate of change over five days has two deteriorating now vs. four yesterday.
Yesterday's newer calculations had all oneday periods weakened. Today all improved, keeping with the volatility I had frequently mentioned which prevented me from assessing anything from them with any confidence. The aggregate change over five days went all positive from yesterday's five periods improving (vs. all six the prior day) and the rate of change has five improving, vs. all six the prior two days.
The volatility still makes assessment uncertain  more "wait and see" seems rational.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. Note that without that 100K trade, the 12/13 VWAP would be $0.1134 and the buy percentage would be 25.9%.
11/20 $0.1125 02.57% 34.4%
11/21 $0.1136 +00.99% 47.2%
11/22 $0.1144 +00.66% 14.9%
11/25 $0.1145 +00.14% 34.9%
11/26 $0.1183 +03.28% 47.3%
11/27 $0.1172 00.96% 10.5%
11/29 $0.1184 +01.03% 19.3%
12/02 $0.1168 01.36% 28.4%
12/03 $0.1145 02.26% 23.0%
12/04 $0.1122 01.98% 28.0%
12/05 $0.1150 +02.50% 37.8%
12/06 $0.1141 00.78% 40.7%
12/09 $0.1151 +00.86% 45.9%
12/10 $0.1156 +00.42% 29.4%
12/11 $0.1139 01.47% 24.8%
12/12 $0.1120 01.66% 14.5%
12/13 $0.1125 +00.50% 38.7%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
12/09: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1165, x 85%: $0.0990
12/10: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1162, x 85%: $0.0988
12/11: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1158, x 85%: $0.0984
12/12: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1154, x 85%: $0.0981
12/13: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1150, x 85%: $0.0978
Vol, in K, for above days: 340.93 581.59 492.97 455.50 580.23.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
12/12/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 55, MinTrSz: 400, MaxTrSz: 150000, Vol: 455500, AvTrSz: 8282
Min. Pr: 0.1110, Max Pr: 0.1145, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1120
# Buys, Shares: 12 66000, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1129
# Sells, Shares: 43 389500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1118
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:5.90 (14.5% "buys"), DlyShts 35800 (7.86), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 9.19%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0981 vs. $0.0984, $0.0988, $0.0990, $0.0994, $0.0992, $0.0987, $0.0986, $0.0986 and $0.985 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0952 vs. $0.0968 vs. $0.0982, $0.0978, $0.0970, 0.0978, $0.0954, $0.0973, $0.0992 and $0.1006 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
FYI, we had a 150K "sell" at $0.1115 at 09:34 that skewed a lot of our results today. Removing it:
 brings volume to 303.6K (even worse than what we got);
 moves buy percentage to 21.74% (still nasty, but near the descending trend line and above our 10, 25, 50 and 100day averages of 0.1998, 0.1848, 0.2055 and 0.1794 respectively);
 puts daily short percentage to 11.79% (still too low);
 moves VWAP to $0.1122, 1.48% from yesterday's $0.1139.
Regardless, my assessments would likely be unchanged and I will use the unadjusted numbers.
Yesterday I said "Very few signs of possible improvement are present today. In fact, there's a lot of things suggesting we'll have difficulty staying in this low $0.11xx range". We're still there, but it's turning into a skin of the teeth situation I think.
The bearish things from yesterday generally strengthened today.
Among other things early in yesterday's post I had "... believe now we are heading to slowly(?) reducing volume and daily short sales ... and the normal next move if we aren't starting some price run up would be to start a retrace down [of daily short sales]. On the chart you'll note we came back under the shortterm descending line".
Trade and daily short sales, respectively came in at 7.60% and 66.93%.
I expressed my concern that "... this might signal the start of our price range moving to the $0.10xx range, which I expected much sooner. By itself the short sales wouldn't be enough to make me worry about this, ...".
Today's results continued to increase bearish signals.
Today's VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 1.66%, 7.60% and 66.93% respectively. The trade volume alone doesn't worry me so much, even though it's off 21.68% from even the slightly low ~582K of 12/10. The low daily short percentage is killer from my POV. Check the charts and note that a price deterioration seems to begin when we get one of these extremely low percentages.
Our low and high deteriorated, 1.77% and 1.21% respectively. Our spread improved a bit  3.15% vs. yesterday's 2.57%. Could be a good sign suggesting a change is coming. Could be a bad sign as the change might as likely be negative as positive in normal circumstances. In our circumstances, negative seems more likely now.
We had a very odd premarket bid and ask setup, long periods of no trading (see the trading breakdown by time) and very long periods where the bid and ask didn't move and the spread was "wide". I posted a couple comments about those thing:
premarket, lack of trading and bid movement.
Seeing this sort of behavior with lowering volume, daily short sales cratering and buy percentage (even if the 150K trade is removed) at continued low levels adds to the likelihood of lower price.
We should be grateful, I guess, that ARCA made no appearance today. There's little doubt in my mind today's results would've been worse.
The bids and offers had very little movement. Offers decreased five time and increased only once. Bids increased seven times and decreased three times. After open the bid ranged from $0.111 to $0.113 and the offer ranged from $0.113 to $0.1145.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:45: 231200 shrs, 50.76% of vol, VWAP $0.1115, 16.2% buys
09:3410:03: 112000 shrs, 24.59% of vol, VWAP $0.1116, 5.7% buys
10:4411:46: 033700 shrs, 07.40% of vol, VWAP $0.1130, 0.0% buys
11:4712:40: 062100 shrs, 13.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1120, 1.0% buys
14:3214:47: 012400 shrs, 02.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1140, 80.6% buys
15:0515:48: 012900 shrs, 02.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1138, 65.1% buys
15:5015:58: 041400 shrs, 09.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1128, 23.2% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1110$0.1115: 208400 shrs, 45.75% of vol, VWAP $0.1114, b:s , 0.0% buys
$0.1120$0.1121: 155000 shrs, 34.03% of vol, VWAP $0.1120, b:s 1:3.38, 22.8% buys
$0.1130$0.1130: 071100 shrs, 15.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1130, b:s 1:6.41, 13.5% buys
$0.1142$0.1145: 021000 shrs, 04.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1143, 100% buys
On the traditional TA front, the 50day SMA dropped to $0.1189 from $0.1190. We again traded completely below this falling average. Our trading has been predominately below the 50day SMA since 11/18.
For comparison, the VWAP averages (5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200day) might be useful: $0.1141, $0.1148, $0.1168, $0.1203, $0.1297 and $0.1834.
I mentioned a couple times that I believe our nearterm future behavior will be predicted by whether we stay at or below my longterm descending resistance or manage to break above it. As near as I can tell it seems to be right at today's high, $0.1145. BTW, recall that we had an apparent manipulation attempt yesterday  a 100 share trade at $0.1145 just before the close. I posted a comment that suggested our real close should have been the $0.1135 trade of 5700 shares.
The oscillators I watch were pretty much flat yesterday and today most have started weakening again. Williams %R is entering oversold and stochastic won't be far behind I think.
On my experimental stuff, the average trade size improved, but only because of the 150K trade. Without it we drop to 5,622 from yesterday's 7,852.
My original inflection point calculations for oneday changes have two periods improving, minimally, with four weakening, also minimally. The changes over five days has five periods weakening and the rate of change over five days has four deteriorating.
My assessment remains weakening once again.
Discussing my newer version yesterday, after mentioning volatility makes trend assessment uncertain I said "My suggestion a few days back that the first glimmerings that the rate of weakening may be decreasing may be dissipating. Today the oneday change has five of the six periods weakening. However the change over five days is still all positive, as is the rate of change for all periods". Today all oneday periods weakened. The aggregate change over five days had five periods improving (vs. all six yesterday) and the rate of change had all six improving, the same as yesterday.
The volatility still makes assessment uncertain  more "wait and see" seems prudent, with the oneday changes likely telling the nearterm tale.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
11/20 $0.1125 02.57% 34.4%
11/21 $0.1136 +00.99% 47.2%
11/22 $0.1144 +00.66% 14.9%
11/25 $0.1145 +00.14% 34.9%
11/26 $0.1183 +03.28% 47.3%
11/27 $0.1172 00.96% 10.5%
11/29 $0.1184 +01.03% 19.3%
12/02 $0.1168 01.36% 28.4%
12/03 $0.1145 02.26% 23.0%
12/04 $0.1122 01.98% 28.0%
12/05 $0.1150 +02.50% 37.8%
12/06 $0.1141 00.78% 40.7%
12/09 $0.1151 +00.86% 45.9%
12/10 $0.1156 +00.42% 29.4%
12/11 $0.1139 01.47% 24.8%
12/12 $0.1120 01.66% 14.5%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
12/09: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1165, x 85%: $0.0990
12/10: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1162, x 85%: $0.0988
12/11: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1158, x 85%: $0.0984
12/12: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1154, x 85%: $0.0981
Vol, in K, for above days: 340.93 581.59 492.97 455.50.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
12/11/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 63, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 44000, Vol: 492966, AvTrSz: 7825
Min. Pr: 0.1130, Max Pr: 0.1159, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1139
# Buys, Shares: 15 122450, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1146
# Sells, Shares: 48 370516, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1136
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:3.03 (24.8% "buys"), DlyShts 108250 (21.96%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 29.22%
Very few signs of possible improvement are present today. In fact, there's a lot of things suggesting we'll have difficulty staying in this low $0.11xx range.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0984 vs. $0.0988, $0.0990, $0.0994, $0.0992, $0.0987, $0.0986, $0.0986, $0.985 and $0.0986 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0968 vs. $0.0982, $0.0978, $0.0970, 0.0978, $0.0954, $0.0973, $0.0992, $0.1006 and $0.0996 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Volume remained OK today, but I would've preferred a bit more. Unfortunately I believe now we are heading to slowly(?) reducing volume and daily short sales. ISTR mentioning the other day that I expected low daily short sales volume and percentage for Tuesday, but I can't find it now. Anyway, that's what I was expecting and we got it, although the percentage wasn't as low as I expected because the trade volume dropped even more, and today should have continued the trend, which it did. If you want to see why I expected this, check the chart for volume and daily short sales and note the orange trend lines. We got the big bump I called for, that coincidentally moved almost all the way to the upper line, and the normal next move if we aren't starting some price run up would be to start a retrace down. On the chart you'll note we came back under the shortterm descending line.
Although normal for recent behavior, I'm afraid that this might signal the start of our price range moving to the $0.10xx range, which I expected much sooner. By itself the short sales wouldn't be enough to make me worry about this, but I'll note some other possible indicators as we go through the stuff below.
Today, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 1.47%, 15.24% and 5.30% respectively. The trade volume alone doesn't worry me so much  it's still in a reasonable range. But we had a compressed price range today (2.57%) even when the spread between bid and ask wasn't all that large most of the day. After market open the lowest bid I saw was $0.113 and the highest offer was $0.1159. With this narrow a spread I would have expected a little better volume. Moreover we had long periods where the spread was less than 2/10ths of penny, and other long periods of 5/100ths, and there was little movement and trading, as can be seen by the intraday trading breakdowns.
Heh, maybe the traders are from our (U.S.) congress  they don't know how to negotiate either.
I have been (hopefully?) saying we are still likely to remain in this range, rather than dropping into the $0.10xx range for a while at least. Seeing this sort of behavior with lowering volume and daily short sales beginning to trend lower again adds a bit of weight to the bear side of the scale.
And there's more ...
I note yesterday the buy percentage dropped back into what is a more normal range for recent trading action, below all my averages. Today it moved lower still, going from yesterdays 29.4% to today's 24.8%. As mentioned, this is not our preferred range  just normal for recent behavior. Our current averages weakened a bit from where they were yesterday  the 10 and 25day dropped from 31% and 34% respectively. Current readings are 29%, 33%, 33%, 33% for the 10, 25, 50 and 100day averages respectively.
Another chit on the bear side of the scale.
ARCA appeared at 09:52 today and was gone at 10:19, was back at 11:33 and exited for good at 14:53. You can see the nearimmediate beginning of weakening in the trading breakdown by time in the 09:5310:31 time and it's resumption beginning in the 11:2112:10 period. It slowly weakened for the rest of the day, emphasized by the buy percentages weakening.
The offers had ten decreases (vs. five and nine yesterday and the prior day) and six increases (vs. four and eight yesterday the day prior) during the day. The bids had eight increases (vs. ten and fourteen yesterday and the prior day) and seven decreases (vs. five and three the preceding two days).
Remember these are arbitrary peeks and not complete tracking.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:51: 048240 shrs, 09.79% of vol, VWAP $0.1150, 69.8% buys
09:5310:31: 025000 shrs, 05.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1142, 0.0% buys
10:3711:05: 034126 shrs, 06.92% of vol, VWAP $0.1151, 56.0% buys
11:2112:10: 074500 shrs, 15.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1139, 16.8% buys
12:3614:49: 184600 shrs, 37.45% of vol, VWAP $0.1138, 28.8% buys
14:5015:04: 057500 shrs, 11.66% of vol, VWAP $0.1134, 7.0% buys
15:1015:57: 069000 shrs, 14.00% of vol, VWAP $0.1130, 0.1% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1130$0.1138: 307990 shrs, 62.48% of vol, VWAP $0.1135, b:s 1:42.38, 2.3% buys
$0.1140$0.1145: 126926 shrs, 25.75% of vol, VWAP $0.1141, b:s 1:1.03, 49.3% buys
$0.1150$0.1159: 058050 shrs, 11.78% of vol, VWAP $0.1155, b:s 9.95:1, 90.9% buys
On the traditional TA front our low and high dropped to $0.1130 and $0.1159 from the prior $0.1133 and $0.1168, down 0.26% and 0.77% respectively. The 50day SMA dropped to $0.1190 from $0.1192. We again traded completely below this falling average. Since 11/18 our trading has been predominately below the 50day SMA.
For comparison, the VWAP averages (5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200day) might be more instructive: $0.1147, $0.1153, $0.1175, $0.1204, $0.1304 and $0.1844.
I said yesterday "We are at an important price point I think. AFAICT our high is exactly at the longterm descending resistance, $0.1168, I've been mentioning. I believe our nearterm future behavior will be predicted by whether we stay at or below this line or manage to break above it". I can't tell precisely where it's at, but it looks like ~$0.1155, meaning our high of $0.1159 was above it today and our close of $0.1145 was below it.
Keep in mind I noted an apparent manipulation of the close today in this comment. If we use what I think really would have been the close, $0.1135, it would be just off our low and make a gravestone doji, supposedly a bearish candlestick.
I also said "If we break above it on a move up, I think that's positive for shortterm price behavior. If we break it just by going sideways, it suggests only more sideways trading for now and doesn't give me any feeling that we might try to move up yet". That still holds and, based on the moves in the low and high, we are at best trading sideways and possibly starting a weakening trend in the less rosy POV.
The oscillators I watch are pretty much flat in behavior now, and below neutral readings.
On my experimental stuff, I'd mentioned my concern with the continuing deterioration in the average trade size. After getting in range Monday of that potential support line I'd mentioned, estimated around 4300 IIRC, Tuesday it improved nicely and the volume was reasonable. I was thinking that Monday's 4,941 might have been the low and we could hang around our averages of 8,111, 8,975, 8,653 and 7,717 for the 10, 25, 50 and 100day averages respectively. Today continues Tuesday's improvement to 7,456 by posting a 7,825. This may be the only nonbear (note I didn't say "bullish") indication we have ATM.
Today's buy percentage continues the breaking of the string of rises: 10.53%, 19.30%, 28.45%, 23.01%, 28.03%, 37.8%, 40.7%, 45.9%, 29.42% and 24.84% today.
Regarding these, I recently warned "We're well above the depressed averages but must be wary here because of the low volume. Also, the daily short volume and percentage (affected by the low trade volume  the reading is not as beneficial as with good volume) don't support a strong bullish interpretation of buy percentage" and "I believe today's return to a lower buy percentage is the first of several low(er) readings we'll get nearterm".
Two consecutive for now and "'nuff said" until further behavior develops.
Yesterday I noted my original inflection point calculations had all periods improving but changes were very small. Today, three weakened and three improved, again very small. Yesterday I noted the prior day's changes over five days had all periods with improvements but rate of change over five days behavior had a split pattern: three improved and three deteriorating. Today all six are weakening. the rate of change over five days has five of the six periods weakening.
My assessment switches from the "Still is not a bullish indication though" to starting to weaken once again.
Yesterday, after mentioning volatility makes trend assessment uncertain: "My suggestion a few days back that the first glimmerings that the rate of weakening may be decreasing may be dissipating. Today the oneday change has five of the six periods weakening. However the change over five days is still all positive, as is the rate of change for all periods". Today all oneday periods weakened. The aggregate change over five days had five periods improving (vs. all six yesterday) and the rate of change had all six improving, same as yesterday.
The volatility still makes assessment uncertain  more "wait and see" seems prudent, with the oneday changes likely telling the nearterm tale.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
11/20 $0.1125 02.57% 34.4%
11/21 $0.1136 +00.99% 47.2%
11/22 $0.1144 +00.66% 14.9%
11/25 $0.1145 +00.14% 34.9%
11/26 $0.1183 +03.28% 47.3%
11/27 $0.1172 00.96% 10.5%
11/29 $0.1184 +01.03% 19.3%
12/02 $0.1168 01.36% 28.4%
12/03 $0.1145 02.26% 23.0%
12/04 $0.1122 01.98% 28.0%
12/05 $0.1150 +02.50% 37.8%
12/06 $0.1141 00.78% 40.7%
12/09 $0.1151 +00.86% 45.9%
12/10 $0.1156 +00.42% 29.4%
12/11 $0.1139 01.47% 24.8%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
12/09: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1165, x 85%: $0.0990
12/10: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1162, x 85%: $0.0988
12/11: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1158, x 85%: $0.0984
Vol, in K, for above days: 340.93 581.59 492.97.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
12/10/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 78, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 55516, Vol: 581586, AvTrSz: 7456
Min. Pr: 0.1133, Max Pr: 0.1168, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1156
# Buys, Shares: 19 171097, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1160
# Sells, Shares: 57 398289, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1154
# Unkn, Shares: 2 12200, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1161
Buy:Sell 1:2.33 (29.4%), DlyShts 102800 (17.68%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 25.81%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0988 vs. $0.0990, $0.0994, $0.0992, $0.0987, $0.0986, $0.0986, $0.985, $0.0986 and $0.0987 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0982 vs. $0.0978, $0.0970, 0.0978, $0.0954, $0.0973, $0.0992, $0.1006, $0.0996 and $0.1006 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
It was good to see today's trade volume, in spite of the OTC trading halt from 11:15 until 12:20, recover to a reasonable range. Although I would prefer ~700K or so, today's is enough to leave me feeling OK about it. So I think we can still consider our 85% of the average of the lowest 20day VWAPs in a 40day window is going the right direction! The other possible price, 85% of the VWAP the day prior to share issue is a little volatile and I still can't decide if it's trying to move up, down or sideways. But it did "do right" today.
Today, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.42%, 70.59% and 4.37% respectively. Since volume recovered well even with the OTC trading halt I think we can view these as usually done. Overall, I think this suggests we are still likely to remain in this range, rather than dropping into the $0.10xx range for a while at least.
The buy percentage dropped back into what is a more normal range for recent trading action, below all my averages. This is not our preferred range  just normal for recent behavior. Our current 10, 25, 50 and 100day averages are 31.05%, 33.58%, 32.46% and 33.10% respectively.
ARCA was totally absent today. That likely accounts for the improvement in the VWAP even though volume improved. However, that did not eliminate the lateday weakness, just delayed the start, based on what is seen in the trading breakdown.
The offers had five decreases (vs. nine yesterday) and four increases (vs. eight yesterday) during the day. The bids had ten increases (vs. fourteen yesterday) and five decreases (vs. three yesterday). Considering we lost an hour or so of trading, a pretty decent profile.
Remember these are arbitrary peeks and not complete tracking.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3010:29: 032285 shrs, 05.55% of vol, VWAP $0.1152, 57.3% buys
10:4411:10: 019781 shrs, 03.40% of vol, VWAP $0.1157, 62.1% buys
12:2213:18: 168300 shrs, 28.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1163, 12.2% buys
13:4614:44: 168320 shrs, 28.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1166, 50.8% buys
14:5015:00: 133400 shrs, 22.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1145, 7.9% buys
15:0315:54: 059500 shrs, 10.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1135, 40.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1133$0.1137: 105285 shrs, 18.10% of vol, VWAP $0.1134, b:s 1:3.33, 22.6% buys
$0.1140$0.1155: 149400 shrs, 25.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1150, b:s 1:13.23, 7.0% buys
$0.1160$0.1168: 326901 shrs, 56.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1166, b:s 1:1.32, 41.8% buys
On the traditional TA front the 50day SMA dropped to $0.1192 now and our high today dropped to $0.1168. Since 11/18 our trading has been predominately below the 50day SMA.
We are at an import price point I think. AFAICT our high is exactly at the longterm descending resistance, $0.1168, I've been mentioning. I believe our nearterm future behavior will be predicted by whether we stay at or below this line or manage to break above it. If we break above it on a move up, I think that's positive for shortterm price behavior. If we break it just by going sideways, it suggests only more sideways trading for now and doesn't give me any feeling that we might try to move up yet.
Our low and high yesterday moved +0.80% and 0.00% and today they moved 0.27% and 0.17%. The close yesterday was $0.1146, +1.42%, and today went to $0.1136, 0.87%.
The oscillators I watch continue mixed, but most nearflat. From the traditional TA view, the increased volume on a "down" day would be concerning. In all honesty it's hard to believe there's any significance to this when the moves in the high, low and close are so small. Even considering the close was below the open doesn't carry all that much weight here I think.
On my experimental stuff, I'd mentioned my concern with the continuing deterioration in the average trade size. Yesterday it got in range of that potential support line I'd mentioned, estimated around 4300 IIRC. Today it improved nicely and the volume was reasonable, so I'm thinking that yesterday's 4,941 might have been the low and we could hang around our averages of 8,111, 8,975, 8,653 and 7,717 for the 10, 25, 50 and 100day averages respectively.
Today's buy percentage broke the string of rising buy percentages: 10.53%, 19.30%, 28.45%, 23.01%, 28.03%, 37.8%, 40.7% and 45.9% yesterday. It had to happen  there's just no catalyst in play to incite the bullish sentiment needed to see strong buy percentages maintained for extended periods. Yesterday I warned "We're well above the depressed averages but must be wary here because of the low volume. Also, the daily short volume and percentage (affected by the low trade volume  the reading is not as beneficial as with good volume) don't support a strong bullish interpretation of buy percentage". I believe today's return to a lower buy percentage is the first of several low(er) readings we'll get nearterm.
Yesterday I noted my original inflection point calculations had all periods improving but changes were very small. Changes over five days had all periods with improvements but rate of change over five days behavior has a split pattern: three improved and three deteriorating. Today the oneday change has small deterioration in all but one period, the change over five days is the same, as is the rate of change over five days.
Still is not a bullish indication though.
As mentioned, the volatility of the newer calculations still makes assessment of a trend risky. My suggestion a few days back that the first glimmerings that the rate of weakening may be decreasing may be dissipating. Today the oneday change has five of the six periods weakening. However the change over five days is still all positive, as is the rate of change for all periods.
The aggregate change over fivedays and the rate may be more reliable  this is the second consecutive day with this behavior. But I think a "wait and see" approach is best here.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
11/20 $0.1125 02.57% 34.4%
11/21 $0.1136 +00.99% 47.2%
11/22 $0.1144 +00.66% 14.9%
11/25 $0.1145 +00.14% 34.9%
11/26 $0.1183 +03.28% 47.3%
11/27 $0.1172 00.96% 10.5%
11/29 $0.1184 +01.03% 19.3%
12/02 $0.1168 01.36% 28.4%
12/03 $0.1145 02.26% 23.0%
12/04 $0.1122 01.98% 28.0%
12/05 $0.1150 +02.50% 37.8%
12/06 $0.1141 00.78% 40.7%
12/09 $0.1151 +00.86% 45.9%
12/10 $0.1156 +00.42% 29.4%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
12/09: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1165, x 85%: $0.0990
12/10: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1162, x 85%: $0.0988
Vol, in K, for above days: 340.93 581.59.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
12/09/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 69, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 29500, Vol: 340929, AvTrSz: 4941
Min. Pr: 0.1130, Max Pr: 0.1170, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1151
# Buys, Shares: 33 156480, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1159
# Sells, Shares: 36 184449, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1144
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.18 (45.9%), DlyShts 107500 (31.53%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 58.28%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0990 vs. $0.0994, $0.0992, $0.0987, $0.0986, $0.0986, $0.985, $0.0986, $0.0987, $0.0988 and $0.0991 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0978 vs. $0.0970, 0.0978, $0.0954, $0.0973, $0.0992, $0.1006, $0.0996, $0.1006, $0.0974 and $0.0972 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Considering today's trade volume was low, I think we can still consider our 85% of the average of the lowest 20day VWAPs in a 40day window is going the right direction! The other possible price, 85% of the VWAP the day prior to share issue is a little volatile and I still can't decide if it's trying to move up, down or sideways because, again, of today's low volume.
Today, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.86%, 65.00% and 60.88% respectively. Because of the low volume, I wouldn't weight any of this very much yet.
The buy percentage moved above all it's averages yesterday on good volume and today it bumped even higher, but unfortunately on abysmal volume  didn't trade even $40K, got $39239.92.
I first spotted ARCA at 09:46, in my peeks, saw them out at 11:31. This presence was accompanied by a general weakening in price, as can be seen from the intraday trading breakdown by arbitrary time. They jumped back in again at 11:53 and out at 12:33, in at 12:58 and out 13:00, present 15:03  15:15 and 15:41  15:50. The usual effect seems muted, probably because of their inconsistent presence and the very low volume. If most of ARCA action is from a PIPEr, the 15% of daily volume limit may be the cause of the hide 'n seek effect we observe often.
The offers had nine decreases, seven while ARCA was present, and eight increases during the day, seven while ARCA was absent. The bids had fourteen increases and three decreases, ALL of the latter were while ARCA was present.
Remember these are arbitrary peeks and not complete tracking.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:54: 059526 shrs, 17.46% of vol, VWAP $0.1146, 58.5% buys
10:0310:24: 048500 shrs, 14.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1145, 51.8% buys
10:4612:58: 041630 shrs, 12.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1137, 19.3% buys
13:1913:55: 038400 shrs, 11.26% of vol, VWAP $0.1160, 56.3% buys
14:0714:58: 030200 shrs, 08.86% of vol, VWAP $0.1168, 68.2% buys
15:0115:15: 095173 shrs, 27.92% of vol, VWAP $0.1155, 33.9% buys
15:2115:50: 027500 shrs, 08.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1147, 50.9% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1130$0.1140: 089703 shrs, 26.31% of vol, VWAP $0.1135, b:s 1:10.18, 8.9% buys
$0.1141$0.1149: 070100 shrs, 20.56% of vol, VWAP $0.1143, b:s 1:2.25, 30.8% buys
$0.1150$0.1158: 082153 shrs, 24.10% of vol, VWAP $0.1154, b:s 3.28:1, 76.6% buys
$0.1160$0.1170: 098973 shrs, 29.03% of vol, VWAP $0.1168, b:s 1.82:1, 64.6% buys
On the traditional TA front the 50day SMA dropped to $0.1193. Our high today held at yesterday's $0.1170. Since 11/18 our trading has been predominately below the 50day SMA.
I keep seeing small signs that we might eventually break above that, and then ...
My longterm descending resistance is now down to ~$0.1175 AFAICT. The high continues to run a bit below that line  several days now.
Our low and high yesterday moved +0.09% and 2.50% and today moved +0.80% and 0.00%. The close yesterday was to $0.1130, 0.44%, and today went to $0.1146, +1.42%.
The oscillators I watch have gone mixed  some weakening, but most nearflat.
On my experimental stuff, I'd mentioned my concern with the continuing deterioration in the average trade size. Today it go in range of that potential support line I'd mentioned, estimated around 4300 IIRC. On low volume days, this is not unusual, but I'd sure be keeping an eye on it if volume remains low.
Friday's buy percentage kept the string of rising buy percentage intact.: 10.53%, 19.30%, 28.45%, 23.01%, 28.03%, 37.8%, 40.7% and 45.9% today. We're well above the depressed averages but must be wary here because of the low volume. Also, the daily short volume and percentage (affected by the low trade volume  the reading is not as beneficial as with good volume) don't support a strong bullish interpretation of buy percentage.
My original inflection point calculations today have periods improving vs. only the 50day yesterday. Changes are very small across the periods though. The change over five days has all periods with improvements. The rate of change over five days behavior has a split pattern: three improved and three deteriorating.
This still is not a bullish indication but does offer the possibility of one further out.
Of my newer calculations the volatility still makes assessment of a trend risky: two days past I said "But it is showing the first glimmerings that the rate of weakening may be decreasing. We'll have to watch it closely". Yesterday I posted "all periods in the oneday change showed weakening, versus yesterday's all showing improvement. The change over five days has five deteriorating with only one improving. The rate of change over the five days has five improving though, suggesting the possibility that its indications of weakening slowing".
Well, today the oneday changes have all periods improving and the degree is noticeable in some cases. The change over five days has substantial improvements in all periods and the rate of change over the five days is the same.
As with the original version, this still is not a bullish indication  just a less bearish sign ATM, but somewhat hopeful.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
11/20 $0.1125 02.57% 34.4%
11/21 $0.1136 +00.99% 47.2%
11/22 $0.1144 +00.66% 14.9%
11/25 $0.1145 +00.14% 34.9%
11/26 $0.1183 +03.28% 47.3%
11/27 $0.1172 00.96% 10.5%
11/29 $0.1184 +01.03% 19.3%
12/02 $0.1168 01.36% 28.4%
12/03 $0.1145 02.26% 23.0%
12/04 $0.1122 01.98% 28.0%
12/05 $0.1150 +02.50% 37.8%
12/06 $0.1141 00.78% 40.7%
12/09 $0.1151 +00.86% 45.9%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
12/09: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1165, x 85%: $0.0990
Vol, in K, for above days: 592.83, 1,877.31, 846.19, 777.30, 296.83.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
12/06/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 99, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 150700, Vol: 974200, AvTrSz: 9840
Min. Pr: 0.1121, Max Pr: 0.1170, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1141
# Buys, Shares: 35 396600, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1156
# Sells, Shares: 63 567600, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1130
# Unkn, Shares: 1 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1156
Buy:Sell 1:1.43 (40.7% "buys"), DlyShts 274800 (28.21%),Dly Sht % of 'sells' est. 48.41%
There were two premarket trades totaling 10K that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 274,800 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 28.5% to my 28.21%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 274,800 to 284,400 and the short percentage would be 29.23%.
Before FINRA daily shorts were available, the above line was originally ESTIMATED at ... DlyShts EST. 296830 (30.47%),Dly Sht % of 'sells' est. 52.30%.
The above and all following statistics and commentary have now been corrected, assuming I didn't overlook anything.
A lot of the below commentary, experimental statistics, and the buy percentage specifically, were affected by a single trade of $0.1157 for 150,700 shares. Without this trade, buy percentage was 29.9%, more in range of our recent "normal". This trade also was used in my estimation of daily short sales volume  I had no idea how close my estimation is to what would be actually shown when FINRA finally reported. I was about 8% high, assuming the premarket trades were not short sales. If they are short sales, which I believe likely, the short sales bump to 284,800 and I end up about 4.2% too high.
As recently mentioned, dropping the last of the $0.10xx prices out of the 40day VWAP measurement period used to calculate 85% of the average lowest 20 VWAPS would have a positive effect on the prices the PIPErs pay for the shares they get. You can see the beneficial effects in the 20day average VWAPs price trends shown in the next paragraph. We still have to worry about the VWAP the day before the share issue(s) though.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0994 vs. $0.0992, $0.0987, $0.0986, $0.0986, $0.985, $0.0986, $0.0987, $0.0988 and $0.0991 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0970 vs. 0.0978, $0.0954, $0.0973, $0.0992, $0.1006, $0.0996, $0.1006, $0.0974 and $0.0972 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Our 85% of the average of the lowest 20day VWAPs in a 40day window is going the right direction! But the other possible price, 85% of the VWAP the day prior to share issue is a little volatile and I can't decide if it's trying to move up, down or sideways.
Today, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.78%, 25.33% and 61.65% respectively. Without that one big trade: 1.03%, 5.94%, 27.00% (assumed short sale)  these would be $0.1138, 823.50K and 124.1K.
The buy percentage moved above all it's averages today on volume in a range which is a little higher than I would like to see right now. You may recall I said I thought we needed to see volume a range somewhere around 700K or so. From the prior paragraph we see that sans the big trade the volume is where I would like it, so maybe I've no reason for concern here.
I first spotted ARCA at 12:52 in my peeks, saw them out at 13:07 and returned at 13:56. Keep in mind I don't track 100%, so they could have been active or exited earlier than I post. The jumped out and back in again at 14:28 and 14:30, at 14:47 and 15:04. The usual effect seems to be shown in the trading breakdown by time.
The offers had eleven decreases, five while ARCA was present, and seven increases during the day, six while ARCA was absent. The bids had nine increases and seven decreases, four of the latter were while ARCA was present.
Remember these are arbitrary peeks and not complete tracking.
Some of the larger bids at $0.11 were masked as those MMs that have had bids at that level had bids at higher prices today. CANT was still visible along with a couple of the smaller quantities from other MMs.
In the trading breakdowns, keep in mind the trade at $0.1157 for 150,700 shares occurred at 14:33. Without that trade the 14:3314:47 period would have 152,900 shares with a VWAP of $0.1128 and constitute only 18.57% of the similarlyreduced trade volume. All other periods would be affected in the percentage of trade volume but I've not calculated those effects.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:2609:34: 047100 shrs, 04.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1169, 100.0% buys
09:3810:06: 030900 shrs, 03.17% of vol, VWAP $0.1149, 19.1% buys
10:0610:58: 052100 shrs, 05.35% of vol, VWAP $0.1125, 0.0% buys
11:0011:27: 043500 shrs, 04.47% of vol, VWAP $0.1152, 80.5% buys
11:3411:50: 039800 shrs, 04.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1131, 0.0% buys
12:0713:05: 106200 shrs, 10.90% of vol, VWAP $0.1147, 44.8% buys
13:1013:26: 022500 shrs, 02.31% of vol, VWAP $0.1155, 88.9% buys
13:2914:29: 157700 shrs, 16.19% of vol, VWAP $0.1130, 13.3% buys
14:3314:47: 303600 shrs, 31.16% of vol, VWAP $0.1142, 50.8% buys
15:0015:05: 119000 shrs, 12.22% of vol, VWAP $0.1144, 54.9% buys
15:1115:49: 051800 shrs, 05.32% of vol, VWAP $0.1129, 1.2% buys
I've not adjusted the trade by price range for the effects of excluding the big trade.
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1121$0.1128: 334100 shrs, 34.29% of vol, VWAP $0.1125, b:s 1:97.26, 1.0% buys
$0.1130$0.1149: 241900 shrs, 24.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1136, b:s 1:4.73, 17.4% buys
$0.1150$0.1159: 351100 shrs, 36.04% of vol, VWAP $0.1156, b:s 8.17:1, 86.6% buys
$0.1168$0.1170: 047100 shrs, 04.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1169, 100% buys
On the traditional TA front the 50day SMA is remains at $0.1194. Our high today was $0.1170. Since 11/18 our trading has been predominately below the 50day SMA.
I keep seeing small signs that we might eventually break above that, and then ...
My longterm descending resistance is still at ~$0.1180 AFAICT. The high retreated from that a bit today.
Our low and high today moved 0.09% and 2.50%. The close moved to $0.1130 from $0.1135 yesterday, 0.44%.
Yesterday I mentioned the oscillators I watch continued to generally weaken, although they were getting mixed. Today they are still mixed but weakening less as our flat behavior continues and price range compresses.
On my experimental stuff, I'd mentioned my concern with the continuing deterioration in the average trade size. Without that big trade, we hit 8,403 rather than the 9,840 we actually had. This compares reasonably with the 10, 25, 50 and 100day averages of 8429, 9335, 8637 and 7696 respectively. These averages have been slowly rising recently. But price has not been responding in the same fashion. This makes me leery that the correlation between a rising average trade size and price action has been broken by the presence of the PIPErs. I've mentioned this possibility before, but had been hoping "twern't so".
Discussing the buy percentage I noted Thursday kept the string of rising buy percentage intact.: 10.53%, 19.30%, 28.45%, 23.01%, 28.03% and 37.8% today. We surpassed the depressed averages of 30.14%, 31.92%, 31.62% and 33.04% for the 10, 25, 50 and 100day averages respectively. With the big trade, we're still going the right direction. Without it, as mentioned above, buy percentage was 29.9%, breaking the trend and below the averages. This may be a oneday effect though  we'll have to wait and see.
My original inflection point calculations today has only the 50day period improving vs. yesterday's three shortest periods improving (reducing weakness) while the longerterms had increasing weakening. Today three are weaker and two are flat. The change over five days had three periods with improvements while three periods deteriorated. Today four weakened and two improved, but all were small changes. The rate of change over five days behavior is unchanged, still only one period weakening and improvement for all other periods, possibly suggesting that a general improving trend may be on the horizon.
This still is not a bullish indication  just a less bearish sign ATM.
Of my newer calculations, yesterday I said "But it is showing the first glimmerings that the rate of weakening may be decreasing. We'll have to watch it closely". Today all periods in the oneday change showed weakening, versus yesterday's all showing improvement. The change over five days has five deteriorating with only one improving. The rate of change over the five days has five improving though, suggesting the possibility that its indications of weakening slowing.
As with the original version, this still is not a bullish indication  just a less bearish sign ATM.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
11/20 $0.1125 02.57% 34.4%
11/21 $0.1136 +00.99% 47.2%
11/22 $0.1144 +00.66% 14.9%
11/25 $0.1145 +00.14% 34.9%
11/26 $0.1183 +03.28% 47.3%
11/27 $0.1172 00.96% 10.5%
11/29 $0.1184 +01.03% 19.3%
12/02 $0.1168 01.36% 28.4%
12/03 $0.1145 02.26% 23.0%
12/04 $0.1122 01.98% 28.0%
12/05 $0.1150 +02.50% 37.8%
12/06 $0.1141 00.78% 40.7%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
12/02: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1160, x 85%: $0.0986
12/03: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1160, x 85%: $0.0986
12/04: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1162, x 85%: $0.0987
12/05: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1167, x 85%: $0.0992
12/06: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1169, x 85%: $0.0994
Vol, in K, for above days: 592.83, 1,877.31, 846.19, 777.30, 296.83.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
12/05/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 77, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 777301, AvTrSz: 10095
Min. Pr: 0.1120, Max Pr: 0.1200, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1150
# Buys, Shares: 23 294131, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1163
# Sells, Shares: 52 471370, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1142
# Unkn, Shares: 2 11800, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1178
Buy:Sell 1:1.60 (37.8% "buys"), DlyShts 170000 (21.87%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 36.07%
As recently mentioned, dropping the last of the $0.10xx prices out of the 40day VWAP measurement period used to calculate 85% of the average lowest 20 VWAPS would have a positive effect on the prices the PIPErs pay for the shares they get. You can see the beneficial effects in the 20day average VWAPs price trends shown in the next paragraph. We still have to worry about the VWAP the day before the share issue(s) though.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0992 vs. $0.0987, $0.0986, $0.0986, $0.985, $0.0986, $0.0987, $0.0988 and $0.0991 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is 0.0978 vs. $0.0954, $0.0973, $0.0992, $0.1006, $0.0996, $0.1006, $0.0974 and $0.0972 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
I had mentioned the possibility of some bad news coming: "if the current trends continue we'll start generating a new batch of $0.10xx VWAPS shortly. Worse, even if we don't, remaining in the low$0.11xx price range will continue to yield $0.09xx price to the PIPErs as the lower of 85% of the average of lowest 20day VWAPs in the measurement period or the 85% of the VWAP the day before the share issue is used". But ...
Today, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.50%, 8.14% and 83.39% respectively.
The buy percentage moved above all it's averages today on volume in the "Goldilocks" range which you may recall I said I thought we needed  not too high, not too low, but just right. Yesterday and prior days "As contrary as it seems, we need to see lower volume, I think, ..." and "... I think we need to see volume in this range to keep price around this area ..." and "... having reasonable volume around this price range seems to offer the best hope against $0.10xx".
Holding this ~700K to 800K range seems ideal to me. Combined with the buy percentage and VWAP improvement, I'm actually becoming hopeful that all the "repeating pattern" stuff I was worried about may not happen, but it's still early in the game of improvement.
ARCA first appeared at 12:08 in my peeks and you can see the usual effect in the trading breakdown by time. But they did hide 'n seek again today. Gone at 13:03, back at 14:28 and gone at 15:51.
The offers had nine decreases, six while ARCA was present, and only five increases during the day, three while ARCA was absent. The bids had five increases and decreases, three of the latter were while ARCA was present. My take is that most market participants have begun to recognize the ARCA behavior patterns.
Remember these are arbitrary peeks and not complete tracking.
The larger bids by CANT and others displayed "The Full Monty" today, the full 755K was exposed! :))
Later I detail some large trade effects. Here's the exceptional ones so you can better judge the trading breakdowns: 12:08 100K, $0.1190; 15:34 100K, $0.1122; 15:39 80K, $0.1125.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3010:34: 047831 shrs, 06.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1187, 12.2% buys
11:0211:54: 043800 shrs, 05.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1173, 46.8% buys
12:0412:08: 163800 shrs, 21.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1182, 71.6% buys
12:3012:59: 114270 shrs, 14.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1152, 13.0% buys
13:0013:56: 030600 shrs, 03.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1161, 31.0% buys
14:0314:29: 072900 shrs, 09.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1144, 31.6% buys
14:3215:32: 037900 shrs, 04.88% of vol, VWAP $0.1127, 48.0% buys
15:3415:52: 266200 shrs, 34.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1123, 31.9% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1120$0.1135: 334100 shrs, 42.98% of vol, VWAP $0.1123, b:s 1:2.24, 30.9% buys
$0.1140$0.1156: 173470 shrs, 22.32% of vol, VWAP $0.1152, b:s 1:13.46, 6.9% buys
$0.1160$0.1179: 091200 shrs, 11.73% of vol, VWAP $0.1167, b:s 1:1.24, 38.8% buys
$0.1180$0.1200: 178531 shrs, 22.97% of vol, VWAP $0.1190, b:s 4.10:1, 80.4% buys
On the traditional TA front the 50day SMA is now $0.1194. We had only four trades above that: three at $0.1200 (2.5K, 20K and 10K) and one at $0.1199 for 1.8K. All other trades were less than the 50day SMA, leaving 73 trades and ~96% of our trading volume below the 50day SMA. Since 11/18 our trading has been predominately below the 50day SMA.
I keep seeing small signs that we might eventually break above that, and then ...
There sits my longterm descending resistance, now at ~$0.1180 AFAICT. The high got above by only 2/10ths of penny (only 9 trades, including a 100K one) even though we had a pretty decent buy percentage, volume in the range I had hoped for, and a daily short percentage behaving well (i.e. trending generally towards the nearterm expected "top", if it doesn't break out). My intermediateterm descending resistance looks to be ~$0.129, right close to Mathieu's $0.13 call for a point of resistance, IIRC, when we do try to rise.
Our low and high both rose today, +0.90% and +2.65%. The close moved to $0.1135 from $0.1111, +2.16%, another refreshing change from so many closes.
Silly, isn't it, that we look for positives in 2/10ths of a penny?
I had mentioned yesterday that the oscillators I watch continued to generally weaken, although they were getting mixed. Today most are trying to improve  only RSI, Williams %R, and accumulation/distribution have small additional weakness. With our trading range being reasonably in the middle of the Bollinger bands ($0.1155), I don't have any expectations of a nearterm major move yet.
We had only three "larger" trades today: 80K at $0.1125, 100K at $0.1122 and 100K at $0.1190. There were two at 30K and three in the low 20K range, to finish up "larger". Everything else was 15K or smaller  68 of our 77 trades. Without the 80K and 100K trades our average trade size was ~6720, well off the 10,095 we ended with today.
On my experimental stuff, I'd mentioned my concern with the continuing deterioration in the average trade size. It failed to continue it's nascent rise today  even with the larger trades included moving down to 10095 from yesterday's 10711. Today's 6720, excluding those three larger trades, is even more disappointing. But, as previously mentioned, each of these past few days we have had a few larger trades that skewed the results. Maybe I shouldn't give too much weight to this just yet.
I'm still hoping we can rely on that average trade size longerterm rising trend be a support point, around 4,300 or so. But the price deterioration I would expect if we move near that level would make it tough to avoid the $0.10 range I think.
Yesterday I said "A nice change seems to be starting in the buy percentage ..." and "... mentioned how the averages continue to deteriorate. But a turn may be coming, as suggested by the recent daily readings ...". Well, today kept the string intact: 10.53%, 19.30%, 28.45%, 23.01%, 28.03% and 37.8% today. We surpassed the depressed averages of 30.14%, 31.92%, 31.62% and 33.04% for the 10, 25, 50 and 100day averages respectively. For the moment we are still moving in the right direction. And this is without any major change in the price, trade volumes, short sales action trend, ...
My original inflection point calculations have the oneday change's three shortest periods improving (reducing weakness) while the longerterms still have increasing weakening. The change over five days has three periods with improvements while three periods deteriorated. The rate of change over five days has only one period weakening and improvement for all other periods, possibly suggesting that a general improving trend may be on the horizon.
This still is not a bullish indication  just a less bearish sign ATM.
Of my newer calculations, yesterday I said "But it is showing the first glimmerings that the rate of weakening may be decreasing. We'll have to watch it closely". Today all periods in the oneday change showed improvement. The same is true for the change over five days and the rate of change over the five days.
As with the original version, this still is not a bullish indication  just a less bearish sign ATM.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
11/20 $0.1125 02.57% 34.4%
11/21 $0.1136 +00.99% 47.2%
11/22 $0.1144 +00.66% 14.9%
11/25 $0.1145 +00.14% 34.9%
11/26 $0.1183 +03.28% 47.3%
11/27 $0.1172 00.96% 10.5%
11/29 $0.1184 +01.03% 19.3%
12/02 $0.1168 01.36% 28.4%
12/03 $0.1145 02.26% 23.0%
12/04 $0.1122 01.98% 28.0%
12/05 $0.1150 +02.50% 37.8%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
12/02: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1160, x 85%: $0.0986
12/03: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1160, x 85%: $0.0986
12/04: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1162, x 85%: $0.0987
12/05: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1167, x 85%: $0.0992
Vol, in K, for above days: 592.83, 1,877.31, 846.19, 777.30.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
12/04/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 79, MinTrSz: 400, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol: 846190, AvTrSz: 10711
Min. Pr: 0.1110, Max Pr: 0.1169,, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1122
# Buys, Shares: 20 237150, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1137
# Sells, Shares: 57 584040, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1115
# Unkn, Shares: 2 25000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1143
Buy:Sell 1:2.46 (28.0% "buys"), DlyShts 87700 (10.36%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 15.02%
For the second time the FINRAreported daily short sales data are missing transactions, this time 156,795, which may include daily short sales. My prior email has been forwarded to Market Regulation at FINRA and I've fired off another for this latest occurrence. Hopefully I'll get a response as to if my understanding is incorrect, some failure to execute was discovered, or some other cause.
UPDATE: FINRA discovered some errors as a result of my report and the updated files are now available. There were, indeed, some additional daily short sales when the missing data was included. I've updated the EOD summary above from the erroneous 87,700 to the corrected 92,700. This moves the daily short percentage from the erroneous 10.35% to 10.95% and the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" from 15.02% to 15.87%.
The 11/29 data had no change in the reported daily short sales, so no adjustment was needed there because I used my trade volume in all calculations.
Some good news is coming: Thursday's trading will drop the last of the $0.10xx prices out of the 40day VWAP measurement period used to calculate 85% of the average lowest 20 VWAPS. Today one dropped out accounting for the small bump in that price.
Some bad news may be coming: if the current trends continue we'll start generating a new batch of $0.10xx VWAPS shortly. Worse, even if we don't, remaining in the low$0.11xx price range will continue to yield $0.09xx price to the PIPErs as the lower of 85% of the average of lowest 20day VWAPs in the measurement period or the 85% of the VWAP the day before the share issue is used.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0987 vs $0.0986, $0.0986, $0.985, $0.0986, $0.0987, $0.0988 and $0.0991 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0954 vs. $0.0973, $0.0992, $0.1006, $0.0996, $0.1006, $0.0974 and $0.0972 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales (corrected version) moved 1.98%, 54.93% and 70.74% respectively.
The buy percentage improved marginally while the 10 and 50day averages show marginal improvement and the 25 was marginally down and 100day average was flat. No change in opinion is warranted by these metrics.
ARCA first appeared at 13:25 in my peeks and we saw an immediate decline in VWAP begin (see trading breakdown by time). I saw they were gone when I peeked at 15:00 and the trading breakdown showed a brief attempt at price recovery, but it was very brief. I guess the combination of the tone being set and the typical lateday weakness combined to keep the trend moving lower.
The offers had ten decreases and seven increases during the day. Only four of the decreases were while ARCA was present. The bids had eight increases and five decreases. Remember these are arbitrary peeks and not complete tracking.
Some of the larger bids by CANT and others, of which I said yesterday "I think they are still there and we'll likely see them appear again Wednesday or Thursday as the market responds to the lower VWAP" returned today. Still not "The Full Monty", but a fair amount was exposed! :))
Although we had smaller "larger" trades today, we had many more approaching and at the 50K level which pushed our average trade size up. Unfortunately, since it was combined almost exclusively with reducing price (see the price breakdown where an aggregate ~80.5% of volume was < $0.$0.1129 VWAP), I can't see blue skies and fluffy clouds here yet. But it has to start somewhere and maybe this is it.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3010:33: 222250 shrs, 26.26% of vol, VWAP $0.1112, 9.6% buys
10:3913:24: 160845 shrs, 19.01% of vol, VWAP $0.1141, 62.6% buys
13:2515:23: 311300 shrs, 36.79% of vol, VWAP $0.1120, 25.7% buys
15:2315:25: 039000 shrs, 04.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1150, 89.7% buys
15:2515:45: 112795 shrs, 13.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1112, 0.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1110$0.1115: 374145 shrs, 44.22% of vol, VWAP $0.1111, b:s 1:28.93, 3.3% buys
$0.1120$0.1129: 306700 shrs, 36.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1122, b:s 1:2.21, 30.6% buys
$0.1130$0.1149: 063095 shrs, 07.46% of vol, VWAP $0.1142, b:s 3.03:1, 51.4% buys
$0.1150$0.1169: 102250 shrs, 12.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1150, b:s 24.56:1, 96.1% buys
On the traditional TA front we again traded totally below the 50day SMA, now down at $0.1197. Since 11/18 our trading has been predominately below the 50day SMA.
As mentioned yesterday, my longterm descending resistance is solid now. The high of the trading range continued pulling away from that line today. Our lows today remained above the descending support of my intermediateterm falling channel. Today that looks, AFAICT, to be at ~$0.1080.
Yesterday I said "As contrary as it seems, we need to see lower volume, I think, to see price stay out of the $0.10xx range. This is because ...". Well, we got the lower volume and the MMs seemed to act as I wanted when I said "... we know we've had some 700K of bids at $0.11 and lower volume would offer the possibility this might hold". The volume wasn't "really low", but it was a big enough falloff that it looks like it got the job done. I think we need to see volume in this range to keep price around this area. Since low price tends to beget high volume, even though I don't think the odds are good we'll stay above $0.10xx very long, having reasonable volume around this price range seems to offer the best hope against $0.10xx.
Our high fell today, 1.76%, from $0.1190 to $0.1169. The close moved from $0.1110 to 0.1111, a refreshing change from so many closes.
The oscillators I watch continue to generally weaken, although they are getting mixed. Stochastic went deeper into oversold territory. The "roll over" I suggested seems to be completing as the low stayed flat and we got a "doji" candle pattern, suggesting a change in trend may be in the works.
On my experimental stuff, I'd mentioned my concern with the continuing deterioration in the average trade size. It continued its nascent rise today, moving from the increased 7,904 Monday, 10,430 Tuesday and 10,711 today. As mentioned, we have had, each of these days, a few larger trades that skewed these results though. Today also continued that with five trades at 50K. With volume only around 846K, you can see the effect these would have. Regardless, I'll take them and be grateful.
Yesterday I said I expected we'll see trade size rise again when a new tranche of shares enter the PIPErs' hands  today? Thank goodness it did just that  maybe allows me to reach deep and find some bullishness in my heretofore bearish assessments. Let's keep that going.
If we can do that we may be able to avoid what I mentioned yesterday, "... in the past this falling average trade size has generally foretold weaker prices". As with yesterday, I still think though that the longerterm rising trend is really going to be the important point, around 4,300 or so. I look for this rising trend to act as a bottom for average trade size IF we are to get any price appreciation.
A nice change seems to be starting in the buy percentage. I had mentioned how the averages continue to deteriorate. But a turn may be coming, as suggested by the recent daily readings: 10.53%, 19.30%, 28.45%, 23.01% and 28.03%. Unfortunately, we are still far below where we should be and are still below the depressed averages of 29.80%, 31.34%, 31.57% and 33.15% for the 10, 25, 50 and 100day averages respectively. But for the moment it seems we are moving in the right direction.
No change in my original inflection point calculations  still in full agreement with what my newer version had been more strongly suggesting  increasing weakening.
My newer calculations and charts, which tend to (more accurately?) lead the originals and had been more strongly suggesting increasing weakness continues to suggest that. But it is showing the first glimmerings that the rate of weakening may be decreasing. We'll have to watch it closely.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
11/20 $0.1125 02.57% 34.4%
11/21 $0.1136 +00.99% 47.2%
11/22 $0.1144 +00.66% 14.9%
11/25 $0.1145 +00.14% 34.9%
11/26 $0.1183 +03.28% 47.3%
11/27 $0.1172 00.96% 10.5%
11/29 $0.1184 +01.03% 19.3%
12/02 $0.1168 01.36% 28.4%
12/03 $0.1145 02.26% 23.0%
12/04 $0.1122 01.98% 28.0%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
12/02: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1160, x 85%: $0.0986
12/03: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1160, x 85%: $0.0986
12/04: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1162, x 85%: $0.0987
Vol, in K, for above days: 592.83, 1,877.31, 846.19.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
12/03/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 180, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 65000, Vol: 1877312, AvTrSz: 10430
Min. Pr: 0.1110, Max Pr: 0.1190, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1145
# Buys, Shares: 48 431999, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1167
# Sells, Shares: 131 1400313, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1137
# Unkn, Shares: 1 45000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1165
Buy:Sell 1:3.24 (23.0% "buys"), DlyShts 316797 (16.88%),Dly Sht % of 'sells' 22.62%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0986 vs. $0.0986, $0.985, $0.0986, $0.0987, $0.0988 and $0.0991 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0973 vs. $0.0992, $0.1006, $0.0996, $0.1006, $0.0974 and $0.0972 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.26%, 216.67% and 156.61% respectively. Based on today's action and the expected date, I believe today saw the release of the most recent new tranche into the market.
The buy percentage, and the averages, continue looking quite anemic. As long as this continues  and I expect it will until some news or a new year arrives  the sellers have only a couple choices: hit the bids driving VWAP lower or get their MMs to set price ranges artificially high in hopes of holding VWAP higher. Since MMs live on volume of transactions, this will be difficult to achieve and sustain unless something spurs the buyers to ignore known market behavior and hit the asks anyway. Normally in our current situation higher prices reduce volume and lower prices increase volume, so guess which way the MMs prefer.
ARCA appeared at 10:07 in my peeks and guess when the VWAP began to drop. They stayed in until my peek at 14:03 when they disappeared. You'll note in the trading breakdown by time that we were able to get a small bump up in VWAP then. They were back at 14:28 and you see the VWAP decline resume.
The offers had ten decreases and six increases during the day. Seven of the decreases were while ARCA was present. Three of the increases were with ARCA present. The bids had ten increases and thirteen decreases. Eight of these were when ARCA was present. Remember these are arbitrary peeks and not complete tracking.
The larger bids by CANT and some others were masked today as small higher bids came in. I think they are still there and we'll likely see them appear again Wednesday or Thursday as the market responds to the lower VWAP. We did see the 283K @ $0.11 bid from NITE get unmasked for a bit. We also saw 200K @ $0.1141 from ETRF and 100K $ $0.111 from CDEL.
We had a several larger trades today that account for a 31.94% bump in average trade size today. We had 17 trades above 20K, including eight >= 50K and a 65K trade. Given these larger trades tend to be uncommon, I don't expect the, or the increased average trade size increase, to hang around long. So average trade should continue to deteriorate after a day or two, at most. This will, if it does indeed occur, suggest difficulty in getting any price appreciation.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:58: 478050 shrs, 25.46% of vol, VWAP $0.1171, 40.4% buys
10:0710:28: 237061 shrs, 12.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1161, 49.7% buys
10:3511:43: 096926 shrs, 05.16% of vol, VWAP $0.1157, 40.5% buys
11:4512:16: 211563 shrs, 11.27% of vol, VWAP $0.1152, 12.3% buys
12:1712:44: 115100 shrs, 06.13% of vol, VWAP $0.1144, 7.6% buys
12:4713:54: 077362 shrs, 04.12% of vol, VWAP $0.1122, 6.5% buys
14:0314:32: 268200 shrs, 14.29% of vol, VWAP $0.1129, 9.3% buys
14:4315:05: 019500 shrs, 01.04% of vol, VWAP $0.1119, 87.2% buys
15:1115:27: 137150 shrs, 07.31% of vol, VWAP $0.1112, 0.0% buys
15:3015:59: 233000 shrs, 12.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1111, 0.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1110$0.1118: 423050 shrs, 22.53% of vol, VWAP $0.1112, b:s 1:41.31, 2.4% buys
$0.1120$0.1129: 187062 shrs, 09.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1125, b:s 1:25.72, 3.7% buys
$0.1130$0.1148: 222100 shrs, 11.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1137, b:s 1:6.33, 13.6% buys
$0.1150$0.1159: 447227 shrs, 23.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1154, b:s 1:4.06, 19.7% buys
$0.1160$0.1169: 248027 shrs, 13.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1162, b:s 1:2.32, 24.7% buys
$0.1170$0.1171: 244847 shrs, 13.04% of vol, VWAP $0.1170, b:s 1.13:1, 53.2% buys
$0.1180$0.1190: 104999 shrs, 05.59% of vol, VWAP $0.1189, 100% buys
On the traditional TA front we traded totally below the 50day SMA, now down at $0.1199. Since 11/18 our trading has been predominately below the 50day SMA.
My longterm descending resistance I previously mentioned is solid now. In fact, the high of the trading range pulled away from that line today. It's looking like our lows will get to the descending support of my intermediateterm descending channel in a few days. Today that looks, AFAICT, to be at ~$0.1085.
As contrary as it seems, we need to see lower volume, I think, to see price stay out of the $0.10xx range. This is because we know we've had some 700K of bids at $0.11 and lower volume would offer the possibility this might hold. But with a fresh batch of shares in the hands of the PIPErs and the need for MMs to have volume to make money I have difficulty seeing really low volume for a few more days yet. Since low price tends to beget high volume, I don't think the odds are good we'll stay above $0.10xx very long.
Our low and high both fell today, 4.06% and 2.86% from $0.1157 and $0.1225 respectively, to $0.1110 and $0.1190. The close moved 4.88% from $0.1167 to 0.1110.
I mentioned that the oscillators I watch had started to weaken again, across the board. That is happening and stochastic actually got into oversold territory today. But don't go expecting a bounce based on that. I had mentioned that if the longterm descending resistance is honored we will have a rounding top forming from the rise from the lo$0.11x range seen 11/20. That's definitely the situation now  the "roll over" I suggested is here big now.
On my experimental stuff, I'm most concerned with the continuing deterioration in the average trade size. With those two 55K trades I mentioned it rose 30.61% to 7,904 today. Without them it was up 9.3% to 6,614. It's below all averages and, more importantly, the 10, 25, 50 and 100day averages (7908, 8792, 8484 and 7543 respectively). If there were lowprice induced bullishness, I would expect trade size to be rising.
I now expect we'll see trade size rise again when a new tranche of shares enter the PIPEr hands  today?
As mentioned yesterday, in the past this falling average trade size has generally foretold weaker prices. I still think though that the longerterm rising trend is really going to be the important point. This seems to be around 4,300 or so. So let's look at this for now as just suggesting less likelihood of a sustained price rise in the nearterm.
The buy percentage averages continue to deteriorate. Take a look at the chart and note both the averages and trend lines.
My original inflection point calculations are now in full agreement with what my newer version had been more strongly suggesting  increasing weakening. I had mentioned seeing early signs in the original that they may switch to increased weakening again.
My newer calculations and charts, sensitive to additional factors, had been more strongly suggesting increasing weakness. That accelerated today and the 25day period gave of the ghost it had clung to  trying to stay essentially flat.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
11/20 $0.1125 02.57% 34.4%
11/21 $0.1136 +00.99% 47.2%
11/22 $0.1144 +00.66% 14.9%
11/25 $0.1145 +00.14% 34.9%
11/26 $0.1183 +03.28% 47.3%
11/27 $0.1172 00.96% 10.5%
11/29 $0.1184 +01.03% 19.3%
12/02 $0.1168 01.36% 28.4%
12/03 $0.1145 02.26% 23.0%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
12/02: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1160, x 85%: $0.0986
12/03: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1160, x 85%: $0.0986
Vol, in K, for above days: 592.83.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
12/02/2013: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 75, MinTrSz: 204, MaxTrSz: 55000, Vol: 592834, AvTrSz: 7904
Min. Pr: 0.1157, Max Pr: 0.1225, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1171
# Buys, Shares: 15 168654, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1187
# Sells, Shares: 59 414180, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1165
# Unkn, Shares: 1 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1168
Buy:Sell 1:2.46 (28.4% "buys"), DlyShts 123454 (20.82%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 29.81%
ABERRATION! 11/29 FINRAreported daily short sales trade volume missing 195,700 shares of the daily trade volume, and potentially some short sales, is still unresolved, awaiting a response to my email.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0986 vs. $0.985, $0.0986, $0.0987, $0.0988 and $0.0991 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0992 vs. $0.1006, $0.0996, $0.1006, $0.0974 and $0.0972 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 1.07%, 46.21% and 38.29% respectively. Note that the missing 11/29 trade volume, and potentially short sales, is still unresolved, leaving volume and short sales changes in doubt.
The buy percentage behavior, and the averages especially, is looking quite anemic. This can't be good considering some new shares are soon to hit the PIPErs hands. The pattern is clearly seen on the charts.
No lateday weakness today  it came early as ARCA showed up right at the open and had left the scene when I checked at 12:43 and did not reappear. Their work was done. Note in the breakdown by time how trade range managed to rise a wee bit thereafter.
Before ARCA exited, my peeks at the offers yielded two increases (one premarket, which is before ARCA appeared) and four reductions (ARCA, BTIG and ATDF making these moves). After ARCA disappeared there were three each increases and decreases. The bids had twelve increases and eight decreases. Remember these are arbitrary peeks and not complete tracking.
We had a couple larger trades today that seem to be part of the same trade  likely a "double" count, based on a "spread" that make me think a market maker was doing this one. I'm sure there were others like this with smaller trade sizes.
10:05:13 $0.1167 55000 Marketmaker sell (short?)?
10:05:16 $0.1161 55000 Marketmaker covering buy?
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the 09:3009:42 time included buys of 250 shares and 30K shares, both at $0.1225, comprising 5.1% of day's trade volume, that skewed that timeframe's results.
09:3009:52: 049570 shrs, 08.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1202, 65.6% buys
10:0510:30: 190490 shrs, 32.13% of vol, VWAP $0.1162, 00.0% buys
10:3111:00: 027200 shrs, 04.59% of vol, VWAP $0.1168, 36.8% buys
11:0911:44: 033070 shrs, 05.58% of vol, VWAP $0.1160, 06.0% buys
12:4312:57: 010704 shrs, 01.81% of vol, VWAP $0.1170, 46.7% buys
13:0014:06: 134600 shrs, 22.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1174, 30.2% buys
14:0615:17: 069800 shrs, 11.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1171, 54.0% buys
15:1700:00: 092400 shrs, 15.59% of vol, VWAP $0.1175, 55.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1157$0.1168: 359484 shrs, 60.64% of vol, VWAP $0.1162, b:s 1:44.36, 2.1% buys
$0.1170$0.1198: 203100 shrs, 34.26% of vol, VWAP $0.1179, b:s 1.81:1, 64.4% buys
$0.1225$0.1225: 030250 shrs, 05.10% of vol, VWAP $0.1225, 100% buys
On the traditional TA front we are still predominately trading below the 50day SMA, now down at $0.1201. The only trades above were the two trades at $0.1225 I mentioned above. ~94.9% of trades were below the 50day SMA. Since 11/18 our trading has been predominately below the 50day SMA.
The longterm descending resistance I previously mentioned, is apparently in play now. AFAICT, the high today was exactly at that resistance (but resolution is not precise  high could be a tad below or above the line). My best guess of that resistance Tuesday is ~$1215, just above the current 50day SMA..
Our low and high both fell slightly today, from $0.1161 and $0.1230, by 0.34% and 0.41% respectively, to $0.1157 and $0.1225. The close moved from $0.117 to $0.1167, 0.26%.
The oscillators I watch, which were showing mostly slowly improving behavior, have started to weaken again, across the board. If that longterm descending resistance is honored we will have a rounding top forming from the rise from the lo$0.11x range seen 11/20. In common parlance, we've apparently started to "roll over".
On my experimental stuff, I'm most concerned with the continuing deterioration in the average trade size. With those two 55K trades I mentioned it rose 30.61% to 7,904 today. Without them it was up 9.3% to 6,614. It's below all averages and, more importantly, the 10, 25, 50 and 100day averages (7908, 8792, 8484 and 7543 respectively). If there were lowprice induced bullishness, I would expect trade size to be rising.
I now expect we'll see trade size rise again when a new tranche of shares enter the PIPEr hands  today?
As mentioned yesterday, in the past this falling average trade size has generally foretold weaker prices. I still think though that the longerterm rising trend is really going to be the important point. This seems to be around 4,300 or so. So let's look at this for now as just suggesting less likelihood of a sustained price rise in the nearterm.
The buy percentage averages continue to deteriorate. Take a look at the chart and note both the averages and trend lines.
My original inflection point calculations continue to suggest, at best, reducing weakening. I'm seeing early signs that they may switch to increased weakening again  they're getting mixed with only the 10 and 25day periods now trying to rise. The other periods are either flat or trying to roll over (the 5day period, but that's normally most volatile).
My newer calculations and charts, sensitive to additional factors, is more consistent. The 25day is the only period showing reducing weakening, and it's minuscule, going from 285.36 to 281.82. All other periods show varying degrees of increased weakening.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
11/20 $0.1125 02.57% 34.4%
11/21 $0.1136 +00.99% 47.2%
11/22 $0.1144 +00.66% 14.9%
11/25 $0.1145 +00.14% 34.9%
11/26 $0.1183 +03.28% 47.3%
11/27 $0.1172 00.96% 10.5%
11/29 $0.1184 +01.03% 19.3%
12/02 $0.1168 01.36% 28.4%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior instablog) for next share issue:
12/02: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1160, x 85%: $0.0986
Vol, in K, for above days: 592.83.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
Disclosure: I am long AXPW.
Additional disclosure: I am very experimental and sometimes do my TA in nontraditional fashions. Keep this in mind when considering anything I post and be sure and consult other sources and do your due diligence. I'm barely responsible for myself and certainly not responsible for anyone else or their actions. :)
Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.
Share this Instablog with a colleague
No tracking box, commenting hoping it will appear.
Edit, it worked
EDIT; This decision seems more correct as I view the longterm possibility of (a)periodically new folks appear and have the same issues. I'd be taking up valuable "load time" on an already large blog (as the month passes it gets larger) that would adversely affect folks with reduced capacity.