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AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 12/01/2014 $AXPW http://seekingalpha.com/p/237ad Nov 29, 2014

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AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 01/01/2014 18 comments
With the PIPE in effect for a couple more months I still feel that my experimental stuff, which had normal markets in mind, is not as useful for now. They may be useful in detecting when normalcy begins to return. So I'm still capturing the data and updating the charts.
To help keep the blog shorter, I truncate some of the historical metrics, but keep enough here to hopefully keep the context clear and helpful.
Discussions related to the PIPE financing, and links, should be reviewed by those unfamiliar with them. Those can still be found in the header of AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 10/1/2013, along with a discussion of some daily short sales and related.
I've been manually collecting this data for about 22 months now while volume was low and it was therefore reasonable to do so. I'll stop when it gets too arduous unless I can craft a mechanized capture of most of the stuff.
To help identify any useful patterns, I've made an blog, Axion Power International, AXPW, 2/13/2012 And Forward One Year Experimental Charts Snapshots. Lines I added may assist in this. For anybody with an interest, I welcome any suggestions and/or help.
I'll update this blog daily as long as I can for anybody that might find it useful. The charts will stay near the top and the text updates detailing daily data and expressing my most recent thoughts will follow after the charts.
I've arranged the chart segments in this blog to put what I think are related stuff close together.
This is the seventeenth installment of the original "AXPW: Some IntraDay Trade Charting" blog on Seeking Alpha. The others grew, as I added daily commentary and FINRA data, to the point I was afraid the load time might become an irritant for folks that have less internet bandwidth or older computing equipment so I've started rolling to a new one aperiodically, usually monthly.
Versions subsequent to the original (latest to oldest) can be found here.
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 12/1/2013
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 11/1/2013
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 10/1/2013
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 9/1/2013
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 8/1/2013
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 7/1/2013
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 6/1/2013
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 5/1/2013
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 3/1/2013
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 02/01/2013
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 12/15/2012
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting 11/14/2012
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting
AXPW: IntraDay Trade Charting 9/6/2012  Xx/xx/2012
AXPW: IntraDay Trade Charting 7/7/2012  9/5/2012
In the below chart the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!
(rightclick and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)
The following are modified inflection point calculations bracketing a price chart for comparison. Note that the false bullish moves and contrary moves of the 5day has been eliminated.
The two identically calculated inflection points are calculated differently from the original above. I have two different presentations of this newer version. The top one has all periods on the same scale. The bottom one has longer periods on the left scale and shorter periods on the right scale. The hope is that shorter period changes will be easier to spot. More work to do, this is a start, hopefully.
I've identified some changes I want to try on the new inflection point calculations but haven't had time to implement them yet. I'll work them in over time after a little experimentation.
Comments and further suggestions welcome.
(rightclick and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)
To reduce blog size, I've trimmed the oldest "2013 Dly Sht % of 'sells' values". Changes in the current set will be noticed and serve the same purpose. If needed, we can compare behavior to older stuff. Weekly 85% price summaries going back to 6/14/2012 have been also trimmed, along with some daytoday VWAP changes stuff going back to 10/09. Older stuff for all three items is available in AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 10/1/2013.
Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", inflection point calculation values, and endofweek 85% PIPE price factors are now only in the latest daily comment  attempting to keep things shorter for faster loading.
The PIPE agreement was amended, changing the 85% calculation to 80%, among other minor things. See AXION POWER INTERNATIONAL, INC., FORM 8K, Filed 01/03/14 for the Period Ending 01/02/14.
01/29/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 52, MinTrSz: 50, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol: 521125, AvTrSz: 10022
Min. Pr: 0.0907, Max Pr: 0.1000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0914
# Buys, Shares: 11 157230, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0924
# Sells, Shares: 41 363895, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0909
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.31 (30.17% "buys"), DlyShts 189844 (36.43%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 52.17%
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.11%, 8.81%, 0.60%, 59.40% and 92.34% respectively. Price spread today was 10.25% vs. 1.43%, 13.00%, 4.73%, 44.79%, 14.26%, 31.25%, 5.76%, 8.33% and 6.47% prior days.
There were two trades of $0.10 x 1K that affected the spread, which would've topped at $0.0950 without them. Removing them, our high would move to $0.0950, the change would be 3.37% and the spread would be 4.74%.
Only 8 out of 52 trades were >= 15K today. Since their pricing was not exceptional, other than being near the lows, and they had mixed buys and sells, and the largest was only 50K, there's nothing exceptional that warrants examining the effects of removing them.
On the traditional TA front, the wide (only if we keep those two 1K trades at $0.10) spread on "reasonable" volume, ~521K, a higher low and high (only if the $0.10 trades are included), would all conspire to make us think there's a bullish action possible. But RSI remains flat and barely above oversold, full stochastic has both %K and %D in oversold with the average (%D) still dropping, momentum is down at ~0.86 (that's below neutral of 1), etc., I don't buy the bullish scenario suggested by the price action alone. Add in the MACD trending lower again, along with its histogram.
The lower Bollinger continues to move lower and now the upper has begun to fall too. ADX, and related, is the only one trying to suggest any hint of bullishness, likely fooled by the $0.10 trades.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0783 vs. $0.0787, $0.0792, $0.0797, $0.0801, $0.0805, $0.0806, $0.0808, $0.0815 and $0.0823 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0731 vs. $0.0727, $0.0740, $0.0758, $0.0750, $0.0798, $0.0797, $0.0803, $0.0771 and $0.0778 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Keeping in mind the daily shorts' yoyo movement within the trends, we had a 46.41% to 07.69% swing in the prior two days and today comes back with a 36.43%. Notice in the chart it came right back to a couple potential shortterm tops shown with some lines I have on the chart. If it sticks to the script, tomorrow should be a swing lower with a reading well above that 7.69%, but below (as a SWAG) 35%.
I had said we'll likely see the percentage languish at very low levels for a few days and price will not be able to move up, and will likely weaken some, in terms of VWAP at least. But buy percentage moved from 17.5% yesterday to 30.2% today. When we have buy percentage move up, the daily short sales tend to be stronger as I think most of the daily shorts result from hitting the ask.
ARCA came in at 11:57, dropping the best offer from the $0.0929 to $0.0914. Before they exited around 13:51, best offer had been as low as $0.091. When they left the offer moved right back to $0.0929 and stayed in the midtohigh $0.092x area fro the remainder of the day.
As mentioned a couple days earlier, my original experimental calculations continues to shed some of the volatility. After two days with a predominate slight weakening trend, today they have improved marginally on the oneday changes. The same applies to the aggregate fiveday changes and rate of change over those days. This is for all periods on all three of these readings  weakening is reducing.
The same observations are noted in the newer version.
As I've mentioned, with our current environment I don't know how useful these are.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes, more detailed than usual because of the very large number of larger trades.
09:3609:45: 002000 shrs, 00.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 100.0% buys
10:0211:02: 019350 shrs, 03.71% of vol, VWAP $0.0914, 015.5% buys
11:4411:44: 050000 shrs, 09.59% of vol, VWAP $0.0930, 100.0% buys
11:4413:51: 234611 shrs, 45.02% of vol, VWAP $0.0909, 022.3% buys
14:0215:58: 215164 shrs, 41.29% of vol, VWAP $0.0915, 023.2% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range, more detailed than usual because of the very large number of larger trades.
$0.0907$0.0909: 188731 shrs, 36.22% of vol, VWAP $0.0908, 000.0% buys
$0.0910$0.0914: 221394 shrs, 42.48% of vol, VWAP $0.0911, 023.6% buys
$0.0920$0.0929: 066000 shrs, 12.66% of vol, VWAP $0.0927, 090.9% buys
$0.0930$0.0930: 040000 shrs, 07.68% of vol, VWAP $0.0930, 100.0% buys
$0.0950$0.0950: 003000 shrs, 00.58% of vol, VWAP $0.0950, 100.0% buys
$0.1000$0.1000: 002000 shrs, 00.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
01/07 $0.1012 02.62% 27.5%
01/08 $0.1010 00.21% 32.8%
01/09 $0.1024 +01.40% 28.5%
01/10 $0.1052 +02.77% 57.8%
01/13 $0.1034 01.76% 19.5%
01/14 $0.0993 03.94% 31.8%
01/15 $0.0973 02.02% 14.6%
01/16 $0.0964 00.89% 34.8%
01/17 $0.1004 +04.15% 62.5%
01/21 $0.0997 00.75% 51.7%
01/22 $0.0998 +00.10% 30.0%
01/23 $0.0937 06.05% 27.6%
01/24 $0.0947 +01.08% 24.0%
01/27 $0.0925 02.34% 35.6%
01/28 $0.0908 01.82% 17.5%
01/29 $0.0914 +00.60% 30.2%
Using the new 80% calculation 1/3 onward. This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
01/27: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0991, x 80%: $0.0792
01/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0984, x 80%: $0.0787
01/29: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0978, x 80%: $0.0783
Vol in K, for above days: 1886.79 1283.59 521.13.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are omitted from the concentrator.
Week ending values related to the PIPE 85% (80% 1/3/14 forward) share pricing:
12/06: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1169, x 85%: $0.0994 VWAP $0.1141
12/13: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1150, x 85%: $0.0978 VWAP $0.1125
12/20: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1123, x 85%: $0.0955 VWAP $0.1036
12/27: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1091, x 85%: $0.0927 VWAP $0.0968
01/03: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1066, x 80%: $0.0852 VWAP $0.0998
01/10: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1039, x 80%: $0.0831 VWAP $0.1052
01/17: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1011, x 80%: $0.0808 VWAP $0.1004
01/24: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0996, x 80%: $0.0797 VWAP $0.0947
Vol, in thousands, for above weeks: 3,977, 2,501 (short week), 5,068, 2,451, 5,773, 7,750, 3,229 (4 days), 4,450, 3,657 and 4,493 (4 day wk).
On my ORIGINAL inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
 1day change 
01/17 25.8% +03.6% +03.3% +02.7% +00.5% +00.6%
01/21 +35.1% 00.1% +04.5% +04.6% +01.1% +00.6%
01/22 04.1% +03.0% 02.4% 02.0% 00.8% 00.5%
01/23 22.1% 33.6% 06.7% 02.5% 02.0% 01.8%
01/24 +00.5% +05.5% +08.5% +00.5% 00.1% 00.4%
01/27 44.3% 35.2% +01.1% +03.6% 00.6% 01.0%
01/28 48.7% 11.2% 02.7% 01.5% 02.2% 01.7%
01/29 +03.5% +01.5% +00.6% +02.6% 00.1% 00.1%
 5day change 
01/17 206.9% 171.5% 132.1% +033.7% 056.6% 028.0%
01/21 +103.3% +068.8% +094.4% +121.4% +303.3% +083.7%
01/22 419.1% +170.2% 246.3% 024.3% 064.9% 155.4%
01/23 +183.7% 657.2% +019.2% 034.1% 292.9% 089.7%
01/24 143.5% 016.8% +692.2% 028.7% +020.1% +008.0%
01/27 614.3% 249.6% 029.1% +022.4% 087.2% 114.9%
01/28 403.3% 027.2% 151.5% 158.8% 130.7% 075.3%
01/29 +007.9% 000.2% +162.4% +234.7% +013.0% +007.7%
 5day rate of change 
01/17 073.1% 043.0% 087.0% +047.1% 275.1% 645.3%
01/21 +108.3% +041.6% +061.3% +368.7% +110.1% +226.2%
01/22 282.6% +007.2% 013.8% 028.1% 761.8% 100.2%
01/23 +283.6% 007.1% +064.0% 014.7% 109.5% +11683.8%
01/24 040.9% +050.0% +359.6% 096.4% +033.5% 066.4%
01/27 +153.0% 041.2% +022.3% 189.1% 013.3% 1139.5%
01/28 372.2% 049.6% 114.6% 1863.8% 162.2% 319.1%
01/29 +015.7% 008.8% +318.9% +058.5% +027.9% +017.7%
On my NEWER inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
 1day change 
01/17 004.44% +019.71% +016.23% +016.17% +014.21% +017.57%
01/21 +036.98% +000.68% +005.41% +005.82% +001.82% +001.83%
01/22 001.19% +006.96% +000.54% +000.69% +001.93% +003.13%
01/23 049.26% 066.02% 026.94% 021.27% 021.85% 026.82%
01/24 +007.40% +011.79% +013.62% +005.61% +004.94% +005.63%
01/27 051.44% 038.24% 003.75% 000.69% 005.82% 007.44%
01/28 040.96% 008.56% 001.88% 000.38% 002.05% 001.67%
01/29 +009.22% +007.73% +007.52% +009.07% +006.50% +008.10%
 5day change 
01/17 099.72% 448.18% +018.50% +078.12% +050.28% +048.11%
01/21 +104.58% +087.67% +103.18% +507.07% +134.47% +108.91%
01/22 +135.08% +854.20% +2404.15% +100.51% +456.42% +1580.87%
01/23 +026.23% 173.34% 103.93% 065.37% 109.96% 102.12%
01/24 028.22% +038.98% +3231.71% +046.55% +425.81% +2028.56%
01/27 539.74% 708.36% 143.36% 163.75% 458.49% 397.20%
01/28 244.78% 018.76% 094.56% 076.21% 023.33% 017.31%
01/29 +014.33% +008.45% +052.45% +064.89% +026.61% +026.75%
 5day rate of change 
01/17 062.70% 031.99% 035.61% +013.68% 008.87% 001.95%
01/21 +111.05% +062.96% +088.70% +164.71% +129.72% +140.57%
01/22 067.00% +032.62% +210.19% +076.92% +148.37% +137.71%
01/23 +923.21% 049.92% +000.69% 029.48% 060.43% 038.82%
01/24 011.46% +089.94% +472.10% +029.47% +195.01% +094.99%
01/27 004.57% 911.33% 073.92% 118.83% 146.78% 132.39%
01/28 440.45% 061.24% 282.31% 405.48% 149.13% 168.85%
01/29 +010.28% 018.04% 032.46% 011.10% 026.95% 037.45%
Rolling 5day ORIGINAL inflection point calculation aggregate change:
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
01/17 5 Day 1090.60 0278.04 0750.02 +0791.39 +0206.48 0913.48
01/21 5 Day +0035.74 0086.83 0041.72 +1752.33 +0832.80 0149.12
01/22 5 Day 0114.03 +0060.97 0144.49 +1327.36 +0292.40 0380.79
01/23 5 Day +0095.47 0339.69 0116.73 +0874.82 0564.00 0722.39
01/24 5 Day 0041.53 0396.84 +0691.28 +0623.64 0450.57 0664.35
01/27 5 Day 0296.65 1387.25 +0490.36 +0763.30 0843.55 1427.59
01/28 5 Day 1903.65 1867.92 0210.73 0400.98 2133.83 2645.36
01/29 5 Day 1698.37 1812.40 +0094.07 +0459.43 1804.14 2386.84
Average change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
01/17 380.63 540.38 492.20 104.98 199.43 113.26
01/21 +031.66 315.72 190.69 +282.10 +020.11 +142.92
01/22 057.81 293.13 217.00 +202.71 133.11 000.25
01/23 +106.13 314.02 078.16 +172.97 278.81 +029.42
01/24 +062.76 157.09 +202.89 +006.31 185.28 +009.89
01/27 +158.79 221.84 +248.08 005.62 210.01 102.82
01/28 387.88 356.22 033.80 430.66 593.32 499.25
01/29 316.87 374.67 +047.71 173.59 419.31 401.21
Rolling 5day NEWER inflection point calculation aggregate change:
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
01/17 5 Day 0123.69 0053.93 0148.93 0057.86 0340.12 0749.67
01/21 5 Day +0005.67 0006.65 +0004.74 +0235.52 +0117.23 +0066.83
01/22 5 Day +0013.32 +0050.17 +0118.59 +0472.24 +0652.31 +1123.37
01/23 5 Day +0016.81 0036.79 0004.66 +0163.54 0065.00 0023.84
01/24 5 Day +0012.07 0022.45 +0145.84 +0239.68 +0211.77 +0459.82
01/27 5 Day 0053.07 0181.47 0063.23 0152.79 0759.17 1366.59
01/28 5 Day 0209.04 0224.49 0137.73 0282.55 0945.59 1612.05
01/29 5 Day 0174.40 0200.52 0062.90 0097.29 0690.00 1176.76
Average change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
01/17 0044.80 0067.02 0091.58 0096.46 0207.88 0331.13
01/21 +0004.95 0024.83 0010.35 +0062.41 +0061.79 +0134.33
01/22 +0001.63 0016.73 +0011.41 +0110.42 +0153.47 +0319.31
01/23 +0016.72 0025.08 +0011.49 +0077.87 +0060.73 +0195.35
01/24 +0014.80 0002.52 +0065.72 +0100.82 +0179.16 +0380.91
01/27 +0014.12 0025.51 +0017.14 0018.99 0083.81 0123.38
01/28 0042.94 0043.57 0028.49 0103.62 0212.56 0335.78
01/29 0037.54 0050.14 0036.30 0113.91 0268.46 0460.03
Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
============ 2013 ===============
Mon. 11/04: 29.83% 49.63% 31.37% 45.17% 50.60%
Mon. 11/11: 27.53% 35.80% 45.77% 33.82% 46.96%
Mon. 11/18: 37.39% 7.21% 5.99% 14.59% 27.14%
Mon. 11/25: 12.23% 25.80% 6.42% 27.28%
Mon. 12/02: 29.81% 22.62% 15.87% 36.07% 48.41%
Mon. 12/09: 58.28% 25.81% 29.22% 9.19% 47.06%
Mon. 12/16: 31.39% 17.00% 35.06% 20.94% 2.10%
Mon. 12/23: 32.34% 24.95% 63.82% 32.86%
Mon. 12/30: 10.02% 6.65%
============ 2014 ===============
Thu. 01/02 12.17% 57.97% 130.29%
Mon. 01/06 130.29% 46.07% 45.62% 24.25% 69.90%
Mon. 01/13 15.61% 17.93% 32.12% 57.12% 108.76%
Tue. 01/21 110.53% 58.75% 49.16% 54.83%
Mon. 01/27 72.54% 70.16% 9.32% 52.17%
============ 2013 ===============
May Avg: 67.58%, min: 09.15%, max: 150.50%
Jun Avg: 47.48%, min: 15.07%, max: 098.99%
Jul Avg: 44.47%, min: 11.23%, max: 122.28%
Aug Avg: 30.24%, min: 02.56%, max: 086.11%
Sep Avg: 16.30%, min: 00.00%, max: 037.54%
Oct Avg: 35.95%, min: 05.98%, max: 082.02%
Nov Avg: 28.42%, min: 05.99%, max: 050.60%
Dec Avg: 29.22%, min: 02.10%, max: 063.82%
============ 2014 ===============
Jan Avg: 53.83%, min: 09.32%, max: 130.29%
0129 Vol 0521125, Sht 0189844 36.43% LHC 0.0907 0.1000 0.0910 b:s 1:2.31 [116]
0128 Vol 1283588, Sht 0098700 07.69% LHC 0.0906 0.0919 0.0907 b:s 1:4.72
0127 Vol 1886785, Sht 0875619 46.41% LHC 0.0907 0.0970 0.0908 b:s 1:1.79[115]
0124 Vol 0486814, Sht 0201491 41.39% LHC 0.0905 0.0970 0.0950 b:s 1:3.15
0123 Vol 2069515, Sht 0709580 34.29% LHC 0.0900 0.1017 0.0940 b:s 1:2.53[114]
0122 Vol 0773817, Sht 0318100 41.11% LHC 0.0993 0.1040 0.0993 b:s 1:2.33[113]
0121 Vol 1162333, Sht 0587663 50.57% LHC 0.0960 0.1390 0.0985 b:s 1.13:1[112]
0117 Vol 0194787, Sht 0079500 40.81% LHC 0.0961 0.1098 0.0980 b:s 1.66:1
0116 Vol 0890792, Sht 0324000 36.37% LHC 0.0800 0.1050 0.0950 b:s 1:1.83
0115 Vol 0895136, Sht 0245533 27.43% LHC 0.0955 0.1010 0.0960 b:s 1:5.84[111]
0114 Vol 0743671, Sht 0091633 12.32% LHC 0.0960 0.1040 0.1000 b:s 1:2.08
0113 Vol 0904633, Sht 0104590 11.56% LHC 0.1005 0.1070 0.1005 b:s 1:3.79
0110 Vol 1967208, Sht 0532152 27.05% LHC 0.1006 0.1118 0.1026 b:s 1.49:1[110]
0109 Vol 0784373, Sht 0162000 20.65% LHC 0.1000 0.1055 0.1055 b:s 1:2.51[109]
0108 Vol 0535199, Sht 0164199 30.68% LHC 0.1000 0.1019 0.1010 b:s 1:2.05
0107 Vol 0849599, Sht 0279266 32.87% LHC 0.1000 0.1058 0.1000 b:s 1:2.60
0106 Vol 0163250, Sht 0056675 34.72% LHC 0.0990 0.1070 0.1040 b:s 2.64:1
0103 Vol 0331282, Sht 0104908 31.67% LHC 0.0953 0.1005 0.1003 b:s 1:1.20
0102 Vol 1429453, Sht 0115332 08.07% LHC 0.0960 0.1070 0.0960 b:s 1:1.97
============ 2013 ==============
1231 Vol 0993469, Sht 0044840 04.51% LHC 0.1020 0.1065 0.1042 b:s 1:2.05[108]
1230 Vol 0464760, Sht 0032000 06.89% LHC 0.1000 0.1065 0.1065 b:s 1:2.32[107]
1227 Vol 0718697, Sht 0167300 23.28% LHC 0.0960 0.1000 0.1000 b:s 1:2.43
1226 Vol 1858898, Sht 0709398 38.16% LHC 0.0953 0.1000 0.0955 b:s 1:1.50[105]
1224 Vol 2660486, Sht 0758726 28.52% LHC 0.0950 0.1040 0.0975 b:s 1:1.91[104]
1223 Vol 0536636, Sht 0118000 21.99% LHC 0.1008 0.1049 0.1040 b:s 1:2.12
1220 Vol 0490906, Sht 0007800 01.59% LHC 0.1011 0.1070 0.1030 b:s 1:3.49
1219 Vol 1041371, Sht 0176895 16.99% LHC 0.1010 0.1099 0.1030 b:s 1:4.76[103]
1219 Vol 0691771, Sht 0097020 14.02% LHC FINRA ERR FIXED ABOVE :s 1:4.76[103]
1218 Vol 1863209, Sht 0608464 32.66% LHC 0.1050 0.1158 0.1056 b:s 1:2.03[102]
1218 Vol 1244932, Sht 0435728 35.00% LHC FINRA ERR FIXED ABOVE :s 1:2.03[102]
1217 Vol 1745872, Sht 0236700 13.56% LHC 0.1100 0.1139 0.1105 b:s 1:4.05[101]
1216 Vol 0625460, Sht 0143312 22.91% LHC 0.1100 0.1135 0.1101 b:s 1:2.83
1213 Vol 0580230, Sht 0157990 27.23% LHS 0.1120 0.1140 0.1120 b:s 1:1.50
1212 Vol 0455500, Sht 0035800 07.86% LHC 0.1110 0.1145 0.1120 b:s 1:5.90
1211 Vol 0492966, Sht 0108250 21.96% LHC 0.1130 0.1159 0.1145 b:s 1:3.03
1210 Vol 0581586, Sht 0102800 17.68% LHC 0.1133 0.1168 0.1136 b:s 1:2.33
1209 Vol 0340929, Sht 0107500 31.53% LHC 0.1130 0.1170 0.1146 b:s 1:1.18
1206 Vol 0964200, Sht 0274800 28.50% LHC 0.1121 0.1170 0.1130 b:s 1:1.43[100]
1205 Vol 0777301, Sht 0170000 21.87% LHC 0.1120 0.1200 0.1135 b:s 1:1.60
1204 Vol 0689395, Sht 0087700 12.72% LHC 0.1110 0.1169 0.1111 b:s 1:2.46[99]
1203 Vol 1877312, Sht 0316797 16.88% LHC 0.1110 0.1190 0.1110 b:s 1:3.24
1202 Vol 0592834, Sht 0123454 20.82% LHC 0.1157 0.1198 0.1167 b:s 1:2.46
[99] ABERRATION! THIS HAS BEEN CORRECTED AND THE CORRECT NUMBERS ARE NOW SHOWN ABOVE! FINRAreported daily short sales trade volume is missing 156,795 shares of the daily trade volume. I've again emailed FINRA for clarification. I now suspect it's not a case of partial volume which will be rectified on the next business day because this is the second consecutive day and FINRA forwarded my prior inquiry to the Market Regulation department. There could be unreported short sales included in the (apparently) missing volume. Regardless, adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 689,395 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 12.72% to my 10.36%.
[100] There were two premarket trades totaling 10K that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 274,800 to my total and would lower the short percentage from 28.5% to my 28.21%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 274,800 to 284,400 and the short percentage would be 29.23%.
[101] There were two aftermarket trades totaling 5.4K that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,745,872 to 1,751,272 and would lower the short percentage from 13.56% to 13.52%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 236,700 to 242,100 and the short percentage would be 13.82%.
[102] FINRA data for 12/18/13 was incomplete and I failed to catch it. John Petersen caught it subsequently and I have updated the 12/18 stuff and kept a record of the erroneous entry in both the running short sales data and in the EOD header stuff.
[103] There was an aftermarket trade of 1K that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,041,371 to 1,042,371 and would lower the short percentage from 16.99% to 16.97%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 176,895 to 177,895 and the short percentage would be 17.66%.
[105] There was an aftermarket trade of 5K that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,858,898 to 1,863,898 and would lower the short percentage from 38.16% to 38.06%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 709,398 to 714,598 and the short percentage would be 39.06%.
[107] There was an aftermarket trade of 500 shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 464,760 to 465,260 and would lower the short percentage from 6.89% to 6.88%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 32,000 to 32,500 and the short percentage would be 7.55%.
[108] There was a premarket trade of 10K that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 993,469 to 1,003,469 and would lower the short percentage from 4.51% to 4.47%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 44,840 to 54,840 and the short percentage would be 5.66%.
[109] FINRA data was adjusted +23 on trade volume to account for a trade of that size that FINRA omits for some reason (bug somewhere). There was two afterhours trades of 145K and 5K that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 784,373 to 934,373 and would lower the short percentage from 20.65% to 17.34%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 162,000 to 312,000 and the short percentage would be 34.69%.
[110] FINRA data was adjusted +08 on trade volume, from their 1,967,200 to the correct 1,967,208, to compensate for their inability to correctly report trade volume even after multiple reports, with snapshots, references and their attempts to provide a "workaround", which didn't.
[111] Initial FINRA data had no entry for AXPW, indicating 0 short sales. We didn't know if that was correct or they were just missing a big piece of the file. It turned out the whole entry was omitted and there are 245,533 shorts. Their daily trade volume was short 4 shares, as I originally posted would be the case, 2 trades of 2 shares each at $0.0960. The volume was adjusted appropriately.
[112] Initial FINRA data was missing 20K of trade volume for AXPW. This is large enough that it likely includes some short sales. If corrections come though, I'll update everything as needed. UPDATED! Next morning "workaround" did and 10K more of short sales appeared.
[113] Initial FINRA data was missing 20,087 of trade volume for AXPW. This is large enough that it likely includes some short sales. Corrections came through, but still missing 87 shares. Before corrections FINRAreported trade volume was 753,817, short volume was 313100, yielding 40.46%. Corrected data, excluding the 87 shares, has trade volume of 773,817, short volume of 318,100, yielding 41.11%. With the 87 shares the percentage is 41.10%.
[114] Initial FINRA data was missing 82,141 shares of trade volume for AXPW. This is large enough that it likely included some short sales. Corrections came through, but still missing 141 shares. Before corrections FINRAreported trade volume was 1,987,515, short volume was 709,580, yielding 35.70%. Corrected data, excluding the 141 shares, has trade volume of 2,069,515, short volume remained 709,580, yielding 34.29%. With the 141 shares the percentage is 34.28%.
[115] Initial FINRA data was missing 17,877 shares of trade volume for AXPW. This is small enough that it likely doesn't a substantial quantity of short sales. When corrections came through. Before corrections FINRAreported trade volume was 1,868,908, short volume was 875,619, yielding 46.85%. Corrected data included no additional short sales, the daily short sales percentage moved to 46.41%.
[116] Initial FINRA data was missing 50 shares of trade volume for AXPW. This is small enough that it likely doesn't have any short sales. I corrected the data. Before corrections FINRAreported trade volume was 521,075, short volume was 189,844, yielding 36.43%. With the additional 50 shares the daily short sales percentage was unchanged.
01/28/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 78, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 1283588, AvTrSz: 16456
Min. Pr: 0.0906, Max Pr: 0.0919, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0908
# Buys, Shares: 21 224588, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0910
# Sells, Shares: 57 1059000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0908
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:4.72 (17.50% "buys"), DlyShts 98700 (07.69%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 9.32%
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.11%, 5.26%, 1.82%, 31.97% and 88.73% respectively. Price spread today was 1.43% vs. 13.00%, 4.73%, 44.79%, 14.26%, 31.25%, 5.76%, 8.33%, 6.47% and 11.13% prior days.
There was one trade at the extreme that was a oneoff that affected the spread. $0.0919 x 3K at 09:34:12. Without this one trade, our high would move to $0.0914 and the change would be 5.77%.
We had a very large number, twentyfour out of 78, of "larger" trades today, including one of 100K ($0.0909), three of 85K and four in the >=50K<=60K range. These totaled 906,893, 70.65% of day's volume. It doesn't make sense to look at >15K in this scenario, so today I looked at 30K and larger. These occurred in 9 trades that totaled 595,693, 46.41% of days volume and had a VWAP of $0.0908. Not one of these trades were a "buy". N.B. ADVFN thought the 100K was "unknown". Upon careful examination of the bid/ask movements and times, I classified this as a "sell". This is also suggested by the fact that other $0.0909 trades, before and after this trade, were all properly classified as "sell".
On the traditional TA front, the very narrow spread on "good" volume, ~1.3MM, with a downward price bias, especially the VWAP move, and oscillators weakening makes me think no bullishness is exhibited yet. The Full stochastic and its average have gone oversold and Williams %r is right on the line.
The lower Bollinger continues to move lower. ADX and related continued to weaken.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0787 vs. $0.0792, $0.0797, $0.0801, $0.0805, $0.0806, $0.0808, $0.0815, $0.0817 and $0.0823 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0727 vs. $0.0740, $0.0758, $0.0750, $0.0798, $0.0797, $0.0803, $0.0771, $0.0778 and $0.0794 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Yesterday I noted I've been saying we should be doing a leg down and reminding that if you look at the charts you'll note a yoyo movement within the trends. I said "Today still fits as the high percentage is below the recent peak. I expect now another reversal in which the low percentage will be below the earlier swing's low". YOWZAH! From 46.41% to 07.69%.
This is definite bad news if past behavior is an indicator. We'll likely see the percentage languish at very low levels for a few days and price will not be able to move up, and will likely weaken some, in terms of VWAP at least.
ARCA came in by 09:53, dropping the best offer from the $0.0914 to $0.091. They stayed in all day and hung in close to the $0.091x area most of the day as other briefly would take the lead, especially NITE with a couple sharp moves to $0.0908 and later $0.0907. late in the day, the $0.0907 came from CDEL after finally gave up and moved to $0.0908 at 14:02. For the most part, BTIG and ATDF were the contestants around that $0.091x area prior to the ARCA move to $0.0908.
As with yesterday, in spite of this, the majority of folks weren't "buying" (hitting the asks). Yesterday twothirds of trade volume hit the bid  someone was "selling"  and today 82.5%, with one caveat. If I'm wrong on that 100K trade being a sell instead of unknown as ATDF indicated, the sell % would move to 74.7%  threequarters hitting the bid. Either way, less than one in five trade shares traded hit the ask.
My original experimental calculations looks to be shedding some of the volatility as we have readings that continue the trend begun yesterday. Yesterday's one day changes had five of the six periods weaker and the aggregate fiveday changes doing exactly the same. Today they have four of six periods weakening again on the oneday changes and three of the periods doing the same over the fiveday aggregate change. In both cases, those not weakening had very marginal improvements. The rate of change continues to suggest more weakness with only the ten and twohundred day periods rate of change improving as the other periods weaken.
The newer version's volatility remains with yesterday's oneday changes all periods weakening switching to all less weak. Ditto for the aggregate change over five days. The rates of change over the five days, but for the tenday period, are all weaker. My take is that indecision, and likely flattoweaker price, is indicated by this action.
As I've mentioned, with our current environment I don't know how useful these are.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes, more detailed than usual because of the very large number of larger trades.
09:3009:58: 120000 shrs, 09.35% of vol, VWAP $0.0910, 037.5% buys
10:0110:54: 348500 shrs, 27.15% of vol, VWAP $0.0909, 011.6% buys
11:0011:39: 232788 shrs, 18.14% of vol, VWAP $0.0908, 013.8% buys
12:0412:54: 237500 shrs, 18.50% of vol, VWAP $0.0909, 010.3% buys
13:1014:47: 054500 shrs, 04.25% of vol, VWAP $0.0908, 056.0% buys
15:0015:55: 290300 shrs, 22.62% of vol, VWAP $0.0907, 017.9% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range, more detailed than usual because of the very large number of larger trades.
$0.0906$0.0909: 1068000 shrs, 83.20% of vol, VWAP $0.0908, 008.8% buys
$0.0910$0.0914: 212588 shrs, 16.56% of vol, VWAP $0.0911, 060.0% buys
$0.0919$0.0919: 003000 shrs, 00.23% of vol, VWAP $0.0919, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
01/06 $0.1039 +04.15% 70.3%
01/07 $0.1012 02.62% 27.5%
01/08 $0.1010 00.21% 32.8%
01/09 $0.1024 +01.40% 28.5%
01/10 $0.1052 +02.77% 57.8%
01/13 $0.1034 01.76% 19.5%
01/14 $0.0993 03.94% 31.8%
01/15 $0.0973 02.02% 14.6%
01/16 $0.0964 00.89% 34.8%
01/17 $0.1004 +04.15% 62.5%
01/21 $0.0997 00.75% 51.7%
01/22 $0.0998 +00.10% 30.0%
01/23 $0.0937 06.05% 27.6%
01/24 $0.0947 +01.08% 24.0%
01/27 $0.0925 02.34% 35.6%
01/28 $0.0908 01.82% 17.5%
Using the new 80% calculation 1/3 onward. This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
01/27: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0991, x 80%: $0.0792
01/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0984, x 80%: $0.0787
Vol in K, for above days: 1886.79 1283.59.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
01/27/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 134, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 110000, Vol: 1886785, AvTrSz: 14080
Min. Pr: 0.0907, Max Pr: 0.0970, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0925
# Buys, Shares: 44 631838, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0939
# Sells, Shares: 89 1247947, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0919
# Unkn, Shares: 1 7000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0925
Buy:Sell 1:1.98 (33.49% "buys"), DlyShts 875619 (46.41%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 70.16%
Initial FINRA data was missing 17,877 shares of trade volume for AXPW. This is small enough that it likely doesn't a substantial quantity of short sales. When corrections came through. Before corrections FINRAreported trade volume was 1,868,908, short volume was 875,619, yielding 46.85%. Corrected data included no additional short sales, the daily short sales percentage moved to 46.41%.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.22%, 0.00%, 2.34%, 287.58% and 334.57% respectively. Price spread today was 13.00% vs. 4.73%, 44.79%, 14.26%, 31.25%, 5.76%, 8.33%, 6.47%, 11.13% and 1.90% prior days.
Unlike prior days, there weren't trades at the extremes that were oneoffs that may have affected the spread. However we did have a very large number of "larger" trades today, including one of 110K. These 30 trades totaled 1,066,708 shares, 56.54% of trade volume. 370K, 34.69%, were buys and 696.7K, 65.31%, were sells. The VWAP of all the larger trades was $0.0928, with the buys' VWAP at $0.0949 and the sells' VWAP at $0.0917.
I Said yesterday the traditional TA stuff may be trying to change my bearishness to a neutral stance. After saying it's a bit early to judge and this was a Friday in a short week I went on to detail what was trying to convince me. I then detailed some items that were contrary to that. I ended with "Still no sign of any bullishness, but I'm hopeful at least for a sideways trading range for a wile. Since hope is not a strategy though, I'll still lean towards price weakness, at best after a sideways trend for a short while".
I'm apparently leaning the right direction. On top of the reduced VWAP on very much higher volume, all the oscillators I watch, now including full stochastic and ADX, and related, resumed weakening and made small moves lower. The Bollingers have begun diverging, with the upper limit flat and the lower limit falling.
I adjusted my mediumterm descending resistance for a better fit to the highs we'd been seeing. The result of that, which seems more realistic, is we no longer have trading ranges "wrapped around" my mediumterm descending resistance. With a value now of ~$0.101, we traded completely below the line and have fewer days trading wrapped around the line.
Yesterday I raised the possibility that the volume and sell percentage Thursday suggested the heavy sellers may be out for a while, allowing a consolidation to begin. Friday didn't dispel that possibility. Today did, as far as sellers being out. The sell percentage was very near Thursday's 69.7%. Volume approached that of Thursday, ~2.1MM.
Still no sign of any bullishness, but the possibility of at least a sideways trading range for a while remains.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0792 vs. $0.0797, $0.0801, $0.0805, $0.0806, $0.0808, $0.0815, $0.0817, $0.0823 and $0.0828 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0740 vs. $0.0758, $0.0750, $0.0798, $0.0797, $0.0803, $0.0771, $0.0778, $0.0794 and $0.0827 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
When I saw the early strong "buys" percentage (in the breakdown by time note the fist three periods of ~509K with high buy percentages) I knew the marketmakers would have a heyday. Sure enough, the daily short sales came in at 46.41%. I've been saying we should be doing a leg down and reminding that if you look at the charts you'll note a yoyo movement within the trends. Today still fits as the high percentage is below the recent peak. I expect now another reversal in which the low percentage will be below the earlier swing's low.
ARCA came in by 09:50 and moved the offer from the $0.097 seen at 09:34 to $0.0955. They stayed in all day. NITE and ATDF immediately but in offers of $0.0945 and $0.0954 respectively. BTIG began to get more aggressive as well. By 10:19 ARCA had the best offer down to $0.094 and NITE took top honors at 10:45 with the best at $0.093. 12:17 NITE @ $0.0915, 13:04 ARCA @ $0.091. Best offer hung around in that area until 15:28, when lateday weakness normally occurs for sure, and BTIG and ARCA shared top honors with the day's lowest offer of $0.0908.
In spite of this, the majority of folks weren't "buying" (hitting the asks). Twothirds of trade volume hit the bid  someone was "selling".
Volatility in my original experimental calculations continues with today's readings switching from yesterday's one day changes of all six periods a wee bit stronger to five of the six weaker and the aggregate fiveday changes doing exactly the same. I mentioned yesterday the rate of change was not supporting the view suggested by the aggregate changes over five days that downward momentum might be slowing. Today's readings of both the one and five day changes did indeed weaken and the rate of change continues to suggest more with only the fiveday rate of change improving as the other periods weaken.
The newer version's oneday changes have all periods weakening, as are all periods in the aggregate change over five days, as are all the rates of change over the five days, but for the fiveday rate of change.
As I've mentioned, with our current environment I don't know how useful these are.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes, more detailed than usual because of the very large number of larger trades.
09:3009:50: 313077 shrs, 16.59% of vol, VWAP $0.0962, 071.9% buys
10:0110:22: 103000 shrs, 05.46% of vol, VWAP $0.0940, 034.0% buys
10:2210:41: 175000 shrs, 09.28% of vol, VWAP $0.0943, 054.3% buys
10:4511:18: 117500 shrs, 06.23% of vol, VWAP $0.0928, 029.4% buys
11:2111:46: 071419 shrs, 03.79% of vol, VWAP $0.0921, 039.8% buys
11:5612:10: 077000 shrs, 04.08% of vol, VWAP $0.0920, 028.6% buys
12:2113:12: 082600 shrs, 04.38% of vol, VWAP $0.0911, 016.5% buys
13:2515:24: 597000 shrs, 31.64% of vol, VWAP $0.0912, 027.3% buys
15:2415:58: 360189 shrs, 19.09% of vol, VWAP $0.0908, 015.5% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range, more detailed than usual because of the very large number of larger trades.
$0.0907$0.0908: 365289 shrs, 19.36% of vol, VWAP $0.0908, 012.3% buys
$0.0910$0.0915: 672500 shrs, 35.64% of vol, VWAP $0.0910, 027.9% buys
$0.0920$0.0926: 153000 shrs, 08.11% of vol, VWAP $0.0921, 029.4% buys
$0.0930$0.0930: 099919 shrs, 05.30% of vol, VWAP $0.0930, 040.0% buys
$0.0940$0.0945: 268000 shrs, 14.20% of vol, VWAP $0.0942, 048.5% buys
$0.0950$0.0955: 097877 shrs, 05.19% of vol, VWAP $0.0951, 010.2% buys
$0.0964$0.0969: 125200 shrs, 06.64% of vol, VWAP $0.0965, 100.0% buys
$0.0970$0.0970: 105000 shrs, 05.57% of vol, VWAP $0.0970, 085.7% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
01/03 $0.0998 00.52% 45.4%
01/06 $0.1039 +04.15% 70.3%
01/07 $0.1012 02.62% 27.5%
01/08 $0.1010 00.21% 32.8%
01/09 $0.1024 +01.40% 28.5%
01/10 $0.1052 +02.77% 57.8%
01/13 $0.1034 01.76% 19.5%
01/14 $0.0993 03.94% 31.8%
01/15 $0.0973 02.02% 14.6%
01/16 $0.0964 00.89% 34.8%
01/17 $0.1004 +04.15% 62.5%
01/21 $0.0997 00.75% 51.7%
01/22 $0.0998 +00.10% 30.0%
01/23 $0.0937 06.05% 27.6%
01/24 $0.0947 +01.08% 24.0%
01/27 $0.0925 02.34% 35.6%
Using the new 80% calculation 1/3 onward. This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
01/27: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0991, x 80%: $0.0792
Vol in K, for above days: 1886.79.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
01/24/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 55, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 32000, Vol: 486814, AvTrSz: 8851
Min. Pr: 0.0905, Max Pr: 0.0970, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0947
# Buys, Shares: 15 116800, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0949
# Sells, Shares: 39 367514, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0947
# Unkn, Shares: 1 2500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0944
Buy:Sell 1:3.15 (23.99% "buys"), DlyShts 201491 (41.39%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 54.83%
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.56%, 4.62%, 1.08%, 76.48% and 71.60% respectively. Price spread today was 13.00% vs. 4.73%, 44.79%, 14.26%, 31.25%, 5.76%, 8.33%, 6.47%, 11.13% and 1.90% prior days.
Similar to prior days, some trades at the extremes that were oneoffs affected the spread. Today it was one 3K trade at 9:43 for $0.0970, the day's high, that hit the ask (10K offer by CSTI, 3rd in line at 09:48, the first time I happened to catch them there), and one 4K trade for $0.0905 at the open that hit the bid (09:15 bid had NITE there for 10K). After that one $0.0905 trade NITE advanced to a $0.092 x 10K bid by 09:33. Removing those trades, we'd have changes for the new low, $0.0920, of 2.22% and new high, $0.0968, of 4.82%. The spread would be 5.22%.
The traditional TA stuff may be trying to change my bearishness to a neutral stance. It's a bit early to judge and this was a Friday in a short week. Regardless, we seem to be wanting to stay in the lowtomid $0.09x range for a bit now.
With today's price range completely contained within yesterday's $0.1017 to $0.09 range, one could believe that we've started a possible shortterm consolidation. But remember that $0.1017 was just one trade of 10K at 10:30 and a more reasonable high could be $0.10, based on six trades totaling 22.2K. It's not that the $0.1017 trade doesn't matter, just that discarding extremes sometimes provides a truer representation of broad sentiment.
I wish I could toss yesterday's low too, but that price had 8 trades for 158.1K over a time spread of 14:08 to 15:43. I can't consider them in the same light as oneoffs.
Regardless, price is still completely within yesterday's range, and on reduced volume.
Add in that all the oscillators I watch, but for full stochastic and ADX ,and related, stopped weakening and made small improvements. The Bollingers have flattened out and are no longer converging. The MACD histogram, which I've not looked at for a while, seems to be supporting this assessment with a compressing vacillation very slightly above and below the zero line.
OTOH, there's a couple things that bear watching for implications.
We traded "wrapped around" my mediumterm descending resistance with more of the range below it than above it. With a value of ~$0.0965, the VWAP of $0.0947 was below that line, as was the close. This is a trend that has been showing itself over the last few days. I don't know how much weight to give it with Thursday's ~2.7MM shares at a VWAP of $0.0937 and 69.7% "sells" though.
That volume and sell percentage raises the possibility that the heavy sellers may be out for a while, allowing a consolidation to begin. Volume was greater than the total of Tuesday, when we saw the price spike to as high $0.139 (but close at $0.0985  I hope no one was suckered in), and Wednesday, which also presented a green candlestick because it closed higher at $0.0993. The twoday volume was ~1.93MM shares.
As an FYI, the VWAPs for those two days were $0.0997 and $0.0998. Thursday and Friday VWAPs were $0.0937 and $0.0947.
The low again almost touched my of the longterm descending trading channel's support, now ~$0.088.
The Bollingers I mentioned above as flattened out and no longer converging has a small negative bias developing on the lower bollinger. One could argue it's just n artifact remaining from the new alltime intraday of $0.08 on1/6, but that has been the longerterm general trend of the lower Bollinger 12/26, so it's really not just a "blip".
Still no sign of any bullishness, but I'm hopeful at least for a sideways trading range for a wile. Since hope is not a strategy though, I'll still lean towards price weakness, at best after a sideways trend for a short while.
There were only 6 trades, totaling 137,500 shares (largest of 32K and in aggregate 28.24% of today's volume), with VWAP of $0.0940 (better than yesterday's large blocks VWAP of $0.0935). Since their VWAP is around the day's VWAP of $0.0947 I can't see benefit from any additional work in this area.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0797 vs. $0.0801, $0.0805, $0.0806, $0.0808, $0.0815, $0.0817, $0.0823, $0.0828 and $0.0831 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0758 vs. $0.0750, $0.0798, $0.0797, $0.0803, $0.0771, $0.0778, $0.0794, $0.0827 and on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
I mentioned yesterday that it looked like the daily short sales are now solidly into a leg down. Even though we moved up again today, if you look at the charts you'll note a yoyo movement within the trends down. I hope this leg takes longer than normal before sweeping the floor again as this would suggest no severe shortterm price deterioration. Even better would be a trend centered above the 30% level, normal for OTC stocks based on a quick run, some months back, of my short percentage calculations on the 8K+ equities on the OTC.
ARCA was in by 10:12 with an initial $0.$0.967 x 15K offer, 1/100th lower than what was the best at the time. NITE and ATDF apparently took umbrage at this effrontery and by 10:21, just nine minutes later, they had pushed the offer down to $0.0939, with ARCA winning this round. But ATDF didn't know the match was over and threw one more drop to $0.0938 at 10:40, with ARCA just behind at $0.0939.
The next move was higher with ARCA on top of the offers at $0.0949 at 10:55. They exited at 11:06 and through 11:26, when ARCA returned with a $0.10 offer, the best offers had moved up as high as $0.0965. ARCA stayed there at $0.10 for the rest of the day as the best offers hovered in the $0.0959  $0.0965 range, with ATDF and NITE being the most active.
My original experimental calculations had one day changes of all six periods a wee bit stronger, the aggregate fiveday changes had the fiveday period weaker with all other periods stronger. I mentioned yesterday the rate of change suggested downward momentum may be slowing and the aggregate changes over five days support this. The rate of change though is not supporting this view today  it's split three and three with the five, fifty and 200hundred day periods being weaker and the others marginally stronger.
The newer version's oneday changes also has all periods strengthening. Like the original, the aggregate change over five days has a weaker 5day period and all periods stronger. The rate of change over those days has improving readings on all but the fiveday period, which is weakening.
As I've mentioned, with our current environment I don't know how useful these are.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes, more detailed than usual because of the very large number of larger trades.
09:3009:30: 004000 shrs, 00.82% of vol, VWAP $0.0905, 000.0% buys
09:4310:10: 077500 shrs, 15.92% of vol, VWAP $0.0963, 042.6% buys
10:1111:00: 147491 shrs, 30.30% of vol, VWAP $0.0932, 054.9% buys
11:0611:59: 043509 shrs, 08.94% of vol, VWAP $0.0948, 001.2% buys
12:1812:46: 027000 shrs, 05.55% of vol, VWAP $0.0951, 007.4% buys
13:0913:38: 047500 shrs, 09.76% of vol, VWAP $0.0959, 000.0% buys
13:3914:18: 074614 shrs, 15.33% of vol, VWAP $0.0952, 000.0% buys
14:1915:58: 065200 shrs, 13.39% of vol, VWAP $0.0950, 000.5% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range, more detailed than usual because of the very large number of larger trades.
$0.0905$0.0921: 060500 shrs, 12.43% of vol, VWAP $0.0919, 000.0% buys
$0.0938$0.0939: 060991 shrs, 12.53% of vol, VWAP $0.0939, 083.6% buys
$0.0940$0.0949: 046009 shrs, 09.45% of vol, VWAP $0.0942, 066.3% buys
$0.0950$0.0959: 246014 shrs, 50.54% of vol, VWAP $0.0952, 000.0% buys
$0.0960$0.0968: 070300 shrs, 14.44% of vol, VWAP $0.0966, 045.9% buys
$0.0970$0.0970: 003000 shrs, 00.62% of vol, VWAP $0.0970, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
01/02 $0.1003 02.80% 33.7%
01/03 $0.0998 00.52% 45.4%
01/06 $0.1039 +04.15% 70.3%
01/07 $0.1012 02.62% 27.5%
01/08 $0.1010 00.21% 32.8%
01/09 $0.1024 +01.40% 28.5%
01/10 $0.1052 +02.77% 57.8%
01/13 $0.1034 01.76% 19.5%
01/14 $0.0993 03.94% 31.8%
01/15 $0.0973 02.02% 14.6%
01/16 $0.0964 00.89% 34.8%
01/17 $0.1004 +04.15% 62.5%
01/21 $0.0997 00.75% 51.7%
01/22 $0.0998 +00.10% 30.0%
01/23 $0.0937 06.05% 27.6%
01/24 $0.0947 +01.08% 24.0%
Using the new 80% calculation 1/3 onward. This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
01/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1008, x 80%: $0.0806
01/22: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1006, x 80%: $0.0805
01/23: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1001, x 80%: $0.0801
01/24: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0996, x 80%: $0.0797
Vol in K, for above days: 1,162.33, 773.90, 2,069.66.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
01/23/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 145, MinTrSz: 20, MaxTrSz: 110000, Vol: 2069656, AvTrSz: 14273
Min. Pr: 0.0900, Max Pr: 0.1017, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0937
# Buys, Shares: 63 570611, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0929
# Sells, Shares: 78 1443545, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0940
# Unkn, Shares: 4 55500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0950
Buy:Sell 1:2.53 (27.57% "buys"), DlyShts 709580 (34.28%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 49.16%
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 9.37%, 2.21%, 6.05%, 167.43% and 123.07% respectively. Price spread today was 13.00% vs. 4.73%, 44.79%, 14.26%, 31.25%, 5.76%, 8.33%, 6.47%, 11.13% and 1.90% prior days. Similar to prior days, abnormal trades affected the spread. Today it was 1.9K that hit the offer of $0.1040. Removing that one trade, our high would be $0.1001 and our spread would be 0.81% and our high change would be 27.99%.
The traditional TA stuff is supporting my continued bearishness, as indicated by the daily changes in the above changes in low, high, ... All the oscillators I watch continue weakening, without exception. We traded predominately below my mediumterm descending resistance and also closed below it. It really was a down day with rising volume  not a good sign. The low almost touched my longterm descending support, ~$0.0884, of the descending trading channel. Still no sign of any bullishness.
There were thirtyeight trades totaling 1,390,630 shares, 67.2% of today's volume, with VWAP of $0.0935. The other onehundredseven trades, 679,026 shares, were 32.8% of the days volume with a VWAP of $0.0944. Excluding the larger trades, our average trade size was 6,346 and the average trade size of the larger trades was 36,595. Three were 100K+, one each at 80K and 90K, five at 50K, two in the 4xK range, seven in the 3xK range six in the 2xK range, and thirteen were in the 15K19K range.
Even for highervolume days when we think the PIPErs are in, this is an unusually large quantity and percentage of larger trades and associated volume.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0801 vs. $0.0805, $0.0806, $0.0808, $0.0815, $0.0817, $0.0823, $0.0828, $0.0831 and $0.0834 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0750 vs. $0.0798, $0.0797, $0.0803, $0.0771, $0.0778, $0.0794, $0.0827, $0.0842 and on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
As with yesterday, it looks like the daily short sales are now solidly into a leg down. This is a natural sideeffect of the finally reducing daily buy percentage: 62.5% 51.7%, 30% and today's 27.57%. As the leg down develops, we should see little upward pressure on price  at best flat and more likely weakness.
ARCA was in at 10:43 with an initial $0.10 offer, and sat on it until 12:30 when they moved it to $0.097. Then they dropped it to $0.0966 at 12:46, $0.095 at 13:52, $0.093 at 14:02 along with NITE and BTIG, $0.091 at 15:06, back to $0.092 with BTIG at 15:23, $0.091 again with BTIG at 15:32, $0.0905 all alone at 15:39, back to $0.091 with BTIG, and finally to $0.095 at 15:53. The competition was fierce during all this, mostly BTIG and ATDF with NITE occasionally.
For the whole day I caught only 4 increases, although I'm sure I missed some, and 22 decreases.
The bids responded appropriately, having 9 decreases and 11 increases. The low was $0.09 and the high was $9,19, but most of the day was in the low $0.09x to mid $0.09x area.
My original experimental calculations had one day changes of all six periods weaker, a three and three split weaker and stronger on the aggregate fiveday changes. The rate of change suggest downward momentum may be slowing  only one period was weakening and the rest showed improvement.
The newer version's oneday changes also had all periods weakening. Unlike the original, the aggregate change over five days has all periods weakening and the rate of change over those days had all but the fiveday period weakening as well.
As I've mentioned, with our current environment I don't know how useful these are, but they don't look good regardless.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes, more detailed than usual because of the very large number of larger trades.
09:3009:35: 025500 shrs, 01.23% of vol, VWAP $0.0994, 000.0% buys
10:0010:30: 033200 shrs, 01.60% of vol, VWAP $0.1004, 060.2% buys
10:4112:29: 209336 shrs, 10.11% of vol, VWAP $0.0975, 010.6% buys
12:3013:41: 540000 shrs, 26.09% of vol, VWAP $0.0961, 008.7% buys
13:4213:54: 095650 shrs, 04.62% of vol, VWAP $0.0951, 028.4% buys
13:5614:14: 346100 shrs, 16.72% of vol, VWAP $0.0928, 019.3% buys
14:1514:21: 120980 shrs, 05.85% of vol, VWAP $0.0905, 000.0% buys
14:2215:20: 245900 shrs, 11.88% of vol, VWAP $0.0909, 042.2% buys
15:2115:31: 131000 shrs, 06.33% of vol, VWAP $0.0914, 063.4% buys
15:3415:45: 116000 shrs, 05.60% of vol, VWAP $0.0904, 056.9% buys
15:4715:51: 115680 shrs, 05.59% of vol, VWAP $0.0913, 094.8% buys
15:5215:55: 090310 shrs, 04.36% of vol, VWAP $0.0926, 027.7% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range, more detailed than usual because of the very large number of larger trades.
$0.0900$0.0906: 344080 shrs, 16.62% of vol, VWAP $0.0903, 012.8% buys
$0.0910$0.0911: 342800 shrs, 16.56% of vol, VWAP $0.0910, 056.5% buys
$0.0915$0.0929: 127680 shrs, 06.17% of vol, VWAP $0.0921, 100.0% buys
$0.0930$0.0931: 269500 shrs, 13.02% of vol, VWAP $0.0930, 015.7% buys
$0.0940$0.0940: 054810 shrs, 02.65% of vol, VWAP $0.0940, 035.6% buys
$0.0950$0.0950: 212750 shrs, 10.28% of vol, VWAP $0.0950, 020.8% buys
$0.0960$0.0966: 461000 shrs, 22.27% of vol, VWAP $0.0963, 012.4% buys
$0.0970$0.0971: 167245 shrs, 08.08% of vol, VWAP $0.0970, 000.0% buys
$0.0980$0.0980: 032091 shrs, 01.55% of vol, VWAP $0.1005, 068.8% buys
$0.0993$0.0996: 025500 shrs, 01.23% of vol, VWAP $0.0994, 000.0% buys
$0.1000$0.1017: 032200 shrs, 01.56% of vol, VWAP $0.1005, 062.1% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
12/31 $0.1032 00.72% 32.8%
01/02 $0.1003 02.80% 33.7%
01/03 $0.0998 00.52% 45.4%
01/06 $0.1039 +04.15% 70.3%
01/07 $0.1012 02.62% 27.5%
01/08 $0.1010 00.21% 32.8%
01/09 $0.1024 +01.40% 28.5%
01/10 $0.1052 +02.77% 57.8%
01/13 $0.1034 01.76% 19.5%
01/14 $0.0993 03.94% 31.8%
01/15 $0.0973 02.02% 14.6%
01/16 $0.0964 00.89% 34.8%
01/17 $0.1004 +04.15% 62.5%
01/21 $0.0997 00.75% 51.7%
01/22 $0.0998 +00.10% 30.0%
01/23 $0.0937 06.05% 27.6%
Using the new 80% calculation 1/3 onward. This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
01/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1008, x 80%: $0.0806
01/22: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1006, x 80%: $0.0805
01/23: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1001, x 80%: $0.0801
Vol in K, for above days: 1,162.33, 773.90, 2,069.66.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are are in the laest daily post above.
01/22/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 84, MinTrSz: 87, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 773904, AvTrSz: 9213
Min. Pr: 0.0993, Max Pr: 0.1040, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0998
# Buys, Shares: 23 232486, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1000
# Sells, Shares: 61 541418, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0997
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.33 (30.04% "buys"), DlyShts 318100 (41.10%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 58.75%
Before FINRA provided corrected data: DlyShts 313100 (40.46%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 57.83%
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 3.44%, 25.18%, 0.10%, 33.42% and 45.87% (corrected from erroneous 46.72%) respectively. Price spread today was 4.73% vs. 44.79%, 14.26%, 31.25%, 5.76%, 8.33%, 6.47%, 11.13%, 1.90% and 5.80% prior days. Similar to prior days, an abnormal trade affected the spread. Today it was 1.9K that hit the offer of $0.1040. Removing that one trade, our high would be $0.1001 and our spread would be 0.81% and our high change would be 27.99%.
On the traditional TA front, yesterday I said "just one thing: ignore that price spike and don't get suckered. We closed below both my descending resistance lines again. The oddball price fooled the full stochastic, momentum and ADX stuff, but the other oscillators said "meh!"". We today finished with a high and low narrowing and within the limits of the day before the spike. This is not a sign of the strength indicated by an apparent spike on the charts supported by rising and relatively strong volume. All the oscillators I watch switched to weakening  both the ones that were fooled and those that were in a "meh" state of mind. The majority of trades occurred almost right at my descending resistance which is at ~$0.093 AFAICT. No suggestion of bullish sentiment here.
FINRA daily short sales were missing 20,877 of trade volume. With the high buy percentage today there's a good possibility there's some short sales in that missing bunch.
There were thirteen trades of 15K or larger today but they accounted for 406.6K, 52.54% of trade volume. Without those thirteen trades our buy percentage would've been 21.10% instead of the 30% we ended with. The average trade size would be 5,173 instead of the 9,213 we got. Without them the VWAP would be $0.0997 instead of the $0.0998 we got  no significant difference.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0805 vs. $0.0806, $0.0808, $0.0815, $0.0817, $0.0823, $0.0828, $0.0831, $0.0834 and $0.0838 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0798 vs. $0.0797, $0.0803, $0.0771, $0.0778, $0.0794, $0.0827, $0.0842, $0.0819 and $0.0808 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
It looks like the daily short sales is finally starting a leg down again after two days of failing to do so. With the daily buys percentages finally starting down, 62.5% 51.7% and today's 30%, I think we'll see a decent drop tomorrow.
ARCA was in, with an initial $0.104 offer, from 10:07 onward. They dropped it to $0.103 just three minutes later, with their trusty sidekick BTIG right there with them. They held steady there while NITE popped a $$0.1005 at 10:13 and a $0.1001 at 10:24. Finally ATDF abused them with a 1/100th better $0.1029 offer when NITE was taken out. ARCA couldn't take any more I guess and at 10:48 moved to $0.102. From then through 12:08 ARCA, BTIG and ATDF wrestled the price down to $0.0999. ARCA withdrew to $0.1001 offer to lick their wounds while BTIG and ATDF took up positions at $0.10 and stayed there. That was it for the day as far as WWE wrestling to be on top went.
On the bids side it was quite with most of the day presenting bids in the mid$0.09x range with a couple brief excursions to the $0.10 and $0.1001 price levels.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Keep in mind the number of abnormally large trades today in the early part of the trading session and a few later in the session.
09:3110:05: 310200 shrs, 40.08% of vol, VWAP $0.0997, 042.5% buys
10:0513:43: 257701 shrs, 33.30% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 025.5% buys
13:5315:10: 057498 shrs, 07.43% of vol, VWAP $0.0998, 055.7% buys
15:1115:59: 148505 shrs, 19.19% of vol, VWAP $0.0994, 002.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0993$0.0996: 326005 shrs, 42.12% of vol, VWAP $0.0994, 000.0% buys
$0.1000$0.1001: 445999 shrs, 57.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 051.7% buys
$0.1040$0.1040: 001900 shrs, 00.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1040, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
12/30 $0.1039 +07.37% 29.5%
12/31 $0.1032 00.72% 32.8%
01/02 $0.1003 02.80% 33.7%
01/03 $0.0998 00.52% 45.4%
01/06 $0.1039 +04.15% 70.3%
01/07 $0.1012 02.62% 27.5%
01/08 $0.1010 00.21% 32.8%
01/09 $0.1024 +01.40% 28.5%
01/10 $0.1052 +02.77% 57.8%
01/13 $0.1034 01.76% 19.5%
01/14 $0.0993 03.94% 31.8%
01/15 $0.0973 02.02% 14.6%
01/16 $0.0964 00.89% 34.8%
01/17 $0.1004 +04.15% 62.5%
01/21 $0.0997 00.75% 51.7%
01/22 $0.0998 +00.10% 30.0%
Using the new 80% calculation 1/3 onward. This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
01/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1008, x 80%: $0.0806
01/22: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1006, x 80%: $0.0805
Vol in K, for above days: 1,162.33, 773.90.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
01/21/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 120, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 60000, Vol: 1162333, AvTrSz: 9686
Min. Pr: 0.0960, Max Pr: 0.1390, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0997
# Buys, Shares: 54 600663, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0988
# Sells, Shares: 63 531670, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1007
# Unkn, Shares: 3 30000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0980
Buy:Sell 1.13:1 (51.68% "buys"), DlyShts 578663 (50.56%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 108.65% UPDATED!
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.10%, 26.59%, 0.75%, 496.72% and 639.20% (UPDATED!) respectively. Price spread today was 44.79% vs. 14.26%, 31.25%, 5.76%, 8.33%, 6.47%, 11.13%, 1.90%, 5.80% and 8.08% prior days. Similar to prior days, an early abnormal trade(s) affected the spread. Today it was 4.5K that hit the offer (set up premarket and I saw it coming) of $0.1390. Removing that one trade, our spread would be 5.1%.
Someone's taking advantage because the early offers were:
07:30 $0.1000x9K CSTI
08:07 $0.1098x5K NITE
09:00 $0.139x5K(2) BTIG NITE
09:30 BA $0.106x24K CDEL AFTER THE FIRST TWO TRADES AT THE OPEN.
How did those folks know to break tradition and move the offer higher before the market opened? This has happened a few times the last week or two. In the big picture, doesn't matter unless some work strictly off traditional TA charts.
It's obvious someone, likely a market maker, can see what's coming because a bid at $0.1390 was never presented on Level two or the Power Etrade Pro "Time & Sales" panel.
On the traditional TA front, just one thing: ignore that price spike and don't get suckered. We closed below both my descending resistance lines again. The oddball price fooled the full stochastic, momentum and ADX stuff, but the other oscillators said "meh!".
FINRA daily short sales were missing 20K of trade volume. With the high buy percentage today there's a good possibility there's some short sales in that missing bunch. I'll use the reported short volume for now and update later if corrections appear. UPDATED! The morning "workaround" did and 10K more of daily short sales appeared.
There were only thirteen trades of 15K or larger today but they accounted for 355K, 30.54% of trade volume. They were 40.79% of today's "buys" and the buy volume was 21.08% of the trade volume today. They also influenced the average trade size, although not as heavily as some other stuff. Without those thirteen trades, the average trade size moves to 7,545, and the buy percentage moves to 44.1%. They also had a deleterious effect on VWAP: without them the VWAP would be $0.1004
UPDATED! Today the daily short sales were 110.53% of "sells", similar to yesterday's 108.76%. As mentioned yesterday, the common thread seems to be "buys" (hitting the ask) strongly.
Our "return to normalcy" is still in place because of continued weakening of WVAP and excessively high short sales when high buy percentages occur. ISTR some months back I ran average daily shorts sales across all 8K+ OTC stocks and the norm is in the 3x% area. These 100%+ readings are reminiscent of the "Big Uglies" era when Special Sits, Quercus and others were unloading shares. The maximums and averages are not in that area though. Let's hope they don't go there.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0806 vs. $0.0808, $0.0815, $0.0817, $0.0823, $0.0828, $0.0831, $0.0834, $0.0838 and $0.0846 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0797 vs. $0.0803, $0.0771, $0.0778, $0.0794, $0.0827, $0.0842, $0.0819, $0.0808 and $0.0809 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
I said the daily short sales is now about the point of starting a leg down again. Again, the buy percentage threw that into the FAIL category.
With obvious manipulation occurring, I'll forgo discussion of my experimental inflection point calculations seems warranted with such low volume and the resulting abnormal buy percentage. Ignore the inflection point charts too.
ARCA was in from 10:28. They planted a $0.10 offer and stayed there until 13:07 when they moved it to $0.098. The back to $0.10 until 13:54, when they moved it to $0.0984, $0.0975 at 14:51, $0.097 at 14:56, $0.0975 at 15:47 and the $0.098 at 15:52. They've been a little less aggressive early on lately, but when there's volume, they will get active it seems.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Keep in mind the number of abnormally large trades today in the early part of the trading session and a few later in the session. 09:3009:30: 007000 shrs, 00.60% of vol, VWAP $0.1245, 064.3% buys 09:3910:23: 092000 shrs, 07.92% of vol, VWAP $0.0999, 063.2% buys
10:2410:50: 048400 shrs, 04.16% of vol, VWAP $0.1357, 000.0% buys 10:5311:14: 101478 shrs, 08.73% of vol, VWAP $0.0993, 075.4% buys 11:2012:28: 116000 shrs, 09.98% of vol, VWAP $0.0977, 000.0% buys 12:3413:04: 116055 shrs, 09.98% of vol, VWAP $0.0982, 070.3% buys 13:0513:26: 252000 shrs, 21.68% of vol, VWAP $0.0978, 072.2% buys 13:3114:05: 081000 shrs, 06.97% of vol, VWAP $0.0971, 007.4% buys 14:1114:51: 095000 shrs, 08.17% of vol, VWAP $0.0982, 073.7% buys 14:5315:03: 121400 shrs, 10.44% of vol, VWAP $0.0965, 032.9% buys 15:1715:43: 052000 shrs, 04.47% of vol, VWAP $0.0968, 080.8% buys 15:4715:57: 080000 shrs, 06.88% of vol, VWAP $0.0977, 050.0% buys Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0960$0.0962: 221400 shrs, 19.05% of vol, VWAP $0.0961, 000.0% buys
$0.0970$0.0978: 233500 shrs, 20.09% of vol, VWAP $0.0973, 043.7% buys
$0.0980$0.0989: 475748 shrs, 40.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1021, 064.6% buys
$0.0990$0.0999: 132685 shrs, 11.42% of vol, VWAP $0.0996, 077.4% buys
$0.1000$0.1009: 094500 shrs, 08.13% of vol, VWAP $0.1001, 088.9% buys
$0.1390$0.1390: 004500 shrs, 00.39% of vol, VWAP $0.1390, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
12/27 $0.0968 00.23% 29.2%
12/30 $0.1039 +07.37% 29.5%
12/31 $0.1032 00.72% 32.8%
01/02 $0.1003 02.80% 33.7%
01/03 $0.0998 00.52% 45.4%
01/06 $0.1039 +04.15% 70.3%
01/07 $0.1012 02.62% 27.5%
01/08 $0.1010 00.21% 32.8%
01/09 $0.1024 +01.40% 28.5%
01/10 $0.1052 +02.77% 57.8%
01/13 $0.1034 01.76% 19.5%
01/14 $0.0993 03.94% 31.8%
01/15 $0.0973 02.02% 14.6%
01/16 $0.0964 00.89% 34.8%
01/17 $0.1004 +04.15% 62.5%
01/21 $0.0997 00.75% 51.7%
Using the new 80% calculation 1/3 onward. This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
01/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1008, x 80%: $0.0806
Vol in K, for above days: 1,162.33.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
01/17/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 43, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 20500, Vol: 194787, AvTrSz: 4530
Min. Pr: 0.0961, Max Pr: 0.1098, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1004
# Buys, Shares: 21 121687, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1021
# Sells, Shares: 22 73100, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0977
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.66:1 (62.47% "buys"), DlyShts 79500 (40.81%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 108.76%
Today's trade value was only $19,561.32. I wouldn't worry about a "Volume Failure", yet. John Petersen points out in this comment: "Since the market is also closed for MLK day, there are only six trading days left before the next determination date. Unless three of them come in under $40,000 there will be no volume failure issue". I suspect that volume won't be so low for 50% of the remaining days.
Today the daily short sales were 108.76% of "sells". A similar situation occurred 1/6, 130.29%, when we also had low volume and high buy percentage, ~163.3K and 70.3% buys. Before that, we have to go back to 7/29 to find a 122.28% of sells in the daily short sales. That day had good volume and buy percentage though, 921.8K and 63% buys. The common thread seems to be "buys" (hitting the ask) strongly, which is what I've been voicing.
Our "return to normalcy" is still in place because lowvolume days, especially around holidays and Fridays is not uncommon. Ditto for high buy percentages when volume is low. E.g. 1/6 had 163.25K and a buy percentage of 70.3% with daily shorts of 34.72 %, near the higher end of our typical range in this environment.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0808 vs. $0.0815, $0.0817, $0.0823, $0.0828, $0.0831, $0.0834, $0.0838, $0.0846 and $0.0849 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0803 vs. $0.0771, $0.0778, $0.0794, $0.0827, $0.0842, $0.0819, $0.0808, $0.0809 and $0.0831 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 20.13%, 4.57%, 4.15%, 78.13% and 75.46% respectively. Price spread today was 14.26% vs. 31.25%, 5.76%, 8.33%, 6.47%, 11.13%, 1.90%, 5.80% and 8.08% prior days. As with yesterday, without two early trades (yesterday low, today very high) our high would have been $0.1029 (2.00%) and our spread would be 7.08%.
On the traditional TA front, we now know how to keep price above my descending resistance  no volume! Traded above that line, ~$0.0987 AFAICT, was good with 70.17% at $0.0990 or above. Allowing for slop in trying precisely reading the level of that line, we traded 62.47% at $0.0998 or above.
Too bad there was little volume today  that makes all of this suspect, along with everything else I normally try to give any weight too.
Yesterday I said the daily short sales is now about the point of starting a leg down again. The buy percentage, along with low volume threw that into the FAIL category.
No discussion of my experimental inflection point calculations seems warranted with such low volume and the resulting abnormal buy percentage. Ignore the inflection point charts too.
Today only 3 of the 43 trades were ~15K or larger (15K, 16K and 20.5K), accounting for 26.44% of volume though. The significant one was the 20.5K one because it was 10.52% of volume at the high of the day, $0.1098. Without this trade, our VWAP would be $0.0993 instead of the $0.1004 we got. Ripple effects would include moving the today's VWAP x 80% price to $0.0794 from the $0.0803 we actually got. Not bad for a $2,250.90 investment.
ARCA was in from 12:18 and was gone by 14:26, possibly earlier. They planted a $0.10 offer and never moved it that I saw. As mentioned in a comment on the APC, asks didn't move much away from that area after the early $0.1098 BTIG offer was taken out at the open. From there we stepped down a few times to $0.10 at 10:51 and the lowest offer I subsequently caught was $0.0998.
We got a price sag shortly after noon and a small recovery in the last 30 minutes  see the trading breakdowns.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Keep in mind the number of abnormally large trades today in the early part of the trading session and a few later in the session.
09:3009:30: 021662 shrs, 11.12% of vol, VWAP $0.1095, 100.0% buys
09:5112:19: 057100 shrs, 29.31% of vol, VWAP $0.1009, 099.8% buys
12:1914:26: 033125 shrs, 17.01% of vol, VWAP $0.0978, 024.2% buys
14:3015:09: 031800 shrs, 16.33% of vol, VWAP $0.0978, 000.0% buys
15:2915:58: 051200 shrs, 26.29% of vol, VWAP $0.0994, 068.4% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0961$0.0980: 058100 shrs, 29.83% of vol, VWAP $0.0973, 000.0% buys
$0.0990$0.0999: 077025 shrs, 39.54% of vol, VWAP $0.0997, 080.5% buys
$0.1000$0.1000: 017500 shrs, 08.98% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 100.0% buys
$0.1022$0.1029: 020500 shrs, 10.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1025, 100.0% buys
$0.1050$0.1098: 021662 shrs, 11.12% of vol, VWAP $0.1095, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
12/27 $0.0968 00.23% 29.2%
12/30 $0.1039 +07.37% 29.5%
12/31 $0.1032 00.72% 32.8%
01/02 $0.1003 02.80% 33.7%
01/03 $0.0998 00.52% 45.4%
01/06 $0.1039 +04.15% 70.3%
01/07 $0.1012 02.62% 27.5%
01/08 $0.1010 00.21% 32.8%
01/09 $0.1024 +01.40% 28.5%
01/10 $0.1052 +02.77% 57.8%
01/13 $0.1034 01.76% 19.5%
01/14 $0.0993 03.94% 31.8%
01/15 $0.0973 02.02% 14.6%
01/16 $0.0964 00.89% 34.8%
01/17 $0.1004 +04.15% 62.5%
Using the new 80% calculation 1/3 onward. This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
01/13: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1035, x 80%: $0.0828
01/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1028, x 80%: $0.0823
01/15: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1022, x 80%: $0.0817
01/16: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1015, x 80%: $0.0812
01/17: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1011, x 80%: $0.0808
Vol in K, for above days: 904.63 771.17 895.14 890.79, 194.79.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
01/16/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 86, MinTrSz: 1000, MaxTrSz: 42000, Vol: 890792, AvTrSz: 10358
Min. Pr: 0.0800, Max Pr: 0.1050, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0964
# Buys, Shares: 35 309600, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0978
# Sells, Shares: 49 567192, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0958
# Unkn, Shares: 2 14000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0935
Buy:Sell 1:1.83 (34.76% "buys"), DlyShts 324000 (36.37%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 57.12%
It appears our "return to normalcy" is complete now  price, VWAP, short sales, ARCA, ... all behaving as expected. One exception was two very early trades below $0.09 for 14K shares. But subsequent trades moved right back up to "normal" range and the behavior throughout the rest of the day was "normal".
Yesterday I said "It sure feels like another new alltime low is in the offing. I've seen no large bids lined up, as we had last time, to provide any cushion either".
Well, I didn't expect it this quickly. Thank goodness it was only an intraday low right at the open. That carries much less weight than a close would. And the nature of those two trades makes me feel they are not projecting very nearterm action. But they may be the first "breach in the wall".
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0815 vs. $0.0817, $0.0823, $0.0828, $0.0831, $0.0834, $0.0838, $0.0846 and $0.0849 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0771 vs. $0.0778, $0.0794, $0.0827, $0.0842, $0.0819, $0.0808, $0.0809 and $0.0831 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 16.23%, 3.96%, 0.89%, 0.49% and 31.96% respectively. Price spread today was 31.25% vs. 5.76%, 8.33%, 6.47%, 11.13%, 1.90%, 5.80% and 8.08% prior days. Without those two early low trades our low would have been $0.0950 (0.52%) and our spread would be 10.53%.
On the traditional TA front, that mediumterm trend line is acting as resistance. Most of today's trading was completely below it and we closed below it too. We are in a leg down (like, what's new?) with lower lows and highs. The oscillators I watch are mixed  MFI and full stochastic making small moves upwards while all others weaken, with volume fairly flat the last four days. The Bollingers midpoint suggests ~$0.10, but both upper and lower limits are descending.
With buy percentage today being in it's higher range today (36%, 32%, 33% and 31% for the 10, 25, 50 and 100day averages respectively), the daily short sales continued it's leg up and is now about the point of starting a leg down again. This can be seen on the charts and in the moves over the last week: 27.05%, 11.56%, 11.88%, 27.43% and 36.37%. So I don't think we'll see a lot of upward pressure on share price as the next leg down begins, likely tomorrow.
On my original experimental inflection point calculations the oneday change had five periods improving. The aggregate change over five days was split with three periods improving and three periods weakening. The rate of change over those five days have the same split. Keep in mind the volatility makes the usefulness of these suspect while we are in the PIPEr environment.
On the newer version, all periods improved over one day. All five periods improved in the aggregate fiveday changes, The rate of change was split three and three weakening and improving. No suggestion of bullishness.
This morning I escalated my communications with FINRA a bit, copying a manager above the folks I had been dealing with and allowing some aggravation to show though and ask, in essence, "is this situation acceptable?". They have respond that it is not, they have escalated the problem within their organization, and given the issue priority. They believe that something reliable should be in place in a few days.
Today it worked "just like God intended".
Today only 13 of the 86 trades were ~15K or larger. Since the largest were only 40K and 42K and most were 15K20K, I think they were in "normal" ratio and won't do any analysis on their effect. I will note that only three were buys  19K and two 20K trades. The rest were sells.
ARCA was in from 9:36 onward. They were busy today, starting out with a $0.10 offer, dropping as low as $0.096 a various times during the day, moving back up to $0.10 and near the day's end doing a $0.098. ATDF and BTIG provided most of the day's competition, so we had offers moving around quite a bit, getting as low as $0.0955 around 12:30 and 14:00. Most of the day it worked in the $0.096$0.099x area.
Bids hit the high of $0.097 early and spent most of the day in the low $0.095x area.
The result was price sag occurred mostly in the middle of the day  no lateday weakness of any note.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Keep in mind the number of abnormally large trades today in the early part of the trading session and a few later in the session.
09:3009:30: 014000 shrs, 01.57% of vol, VWAP $0.0824, 000.0% buys
09:3010:08: 140000 shrs, 15.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 067.6% buys
10:1011:03: 152792 shrs, 17.15% of vol, VWAP $0.0965, 013.1% buys
11:1112:34: 120500 shrs, 13.53% of vol, VWAP $0.0957, 008.3% buys
12:5914:03: 075500 shrs, 08.48% of vol, VWAP $0.0959, 096.7% buys
14:0614:18: 105500 shrs, 11.84% of vol, VWAP $0.0954, 036.0% buys
14:3514:56: 083500 shrs, 09.37% of vol, VWAP $0.0958, 074.3% buys
15:0915:15: 047500 shrs, 05.33% of vol, VWAP $0.0996, 021.1% buys
15:2815:56: 151500 shrs, 17.01% of vol, VWAP $0.0952, 001.3% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0800$0.0885: 014000 shrs, 01.57% of vol, VWAP $0.0824, 000.0% buys
$0.0950$0.0959: 409500 shrs, 45.97% of vol, VWAP $0.0954, 021.5% buys
$0.0960$0.0969: 228000 shrs, 25.60% of vol, VWAP $0.0961, 046.9% buys
$0.0970$0.0970: 086792 shrs, 09.74% of vol, VWAP $0.0970, 005.8% buys
$0.0996$0.0997: 047500 shrs, 05.33% of vol, VWAP $0.0996, 021.1% buys
$0.1000$0.1000: 070200 shrs, 07.88% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 092.3% buys
$0.1025$0.1050: 034800 shrs, 03.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1035, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
12/26 $0.0970 03.13% 39.8%
12/27 $0.0968 00.23% 29.2%
12/30 $0.1039 +07.37% 29.5%
12/31 $0.1032 00.72% 32.8%
01/02 $0.1003 02.80% 33.7%
01/03 $0.0998 00.52% 45.4%
01/06 $0.1039 +04.15% 70.3%
01/07 $0.1012 02.62% 27.5%
01/08 $0.1010 00.21% 32.8%
01/09 $0.1024 +01.40% 28.5%
01/10 $0.1052 +02.77% 57.8%
01/13 $0.1034 01.76% 19.5%
01/14 $0.0993 03.94% 31.8%
01/15 $0.0973 02.02% 14.6%
01/16 $0.0964 00.89% 34.8%
Using the new 80% calculation 1/3 onward. This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
01/13: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1035, x 80%: $0.0828
01/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1028, x 80%: $0.0823
01/15: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1022, x 80%: $0.0817
01/16: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1015, x 80%: $0.0812
Vol in K, for above days: 904.63 771.17 895.14 890.79.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are are in the latest daily post above.
01/15/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 76, MinTrSz: 2, MaxTrSz: 105000, Vol: 895136, AvTrSz: 11778
Min. Pr: 0.0955, Max Pr: 0.1010, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0973
# Buys, Shares: 12 130808, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1005
# Sells, Shares: 64 764328, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0967
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:5.84 (14.61% "buys"), DlyShts 245533 (27.43%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 32.12%
Initial FINRA data has no entry for AXPW, indicating 0 short sales. We don't know if that's correct or they are just missing a big piece of the file. If it turns out there are shorts, their daily trade volume will be short 4 shares, 2 trades of 2 shares each at $0.0960. The volume will need to be adjusted.
Initial FINRA data had no entry for AXPW, indicating 0 short sales. We didn't know if that was correct or they were just missing a big piece of the file. It turned out the whole entry was omitted and there are 245,533 shorts. Their daily trade volume was short 4 shares, as I originally posted would be the case, 2 trades of 2 shares each at $0.0960. The volume was adjusted appropriately.
Those four shares look suspicious to me. Without them our close would've been $0.0955 instead of the $0.0960 we got that appears on the charts.
Yesterday I said "Today seems to confirm a return to normalcy". Yep! All the usual behavior, from ARCA and NITE, to lateday weakness, to very low short sales coming back, to falling open, low, high and close, to rising volume on a down day, to trading completely below my descending resistance (~$0.1015?) this time. All oscillators I watch in the traditional TA charts are weakening and full stochastic has entered oversold.
Turns out the "very low short sales" above was not correct. When corrected FINRA data became available we had the numbers mentioned at the top of this EOD post. It turns out we still have "return to normalcy" in that regard as our point in the daily short sales cycle could have gone to an absurd low, starting a new cycle, or continue the "consolidation" trend of narrowing highlow spread, which it did when the real data appeared.
On my original experimental inflection point calculations the oneday change, the aggregate change over five days, and the rate of change over those five days have all periods weakening. Keep in mind the volatility makes the usefulness of these suspect while we are in the PIPEr environment.
On the newer version, only the fiveday period weakened over one day. All six periods weakened in the aggregate fiveday changes, as did the rate of change for all periods.
It sure feels like another new alltime low is in the offing. I've seen no large bids lined up, as we had last time, to provide any cushion either.
Today 15 of the 76 trades were ~15K or larger. 1x15K, 2x19K, 5x20K, 2x25K, 1 each of 30K, 40K, 59,5K, 80K and 105K. These represented 57.81% of the day's volume. The buys in this group were 100K (19.32% of this volume) and the sells were 417.5K (80.68% of this volume). Today we should be thankful for them though  without these larger trades we would've ended with 30,808 shares as buys and a buy percentage of 8.16% instead of the 14.6% we actually got.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0817 vs. $0.0823, $0.0828, $0.0831, $0.0834, $0.0838, $0.0846 and $0.0849 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0778 vs. $0.0794, $0.0827, $0.0842, $0.0819, $0.0808, $0.0809 and $0.0831 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.52%, 2.88%, 2.02%, 16.08% and 167.95% respectively. Price spread today was 5.76% vs. 8.33%, 6.47%, 11.13%, 1.90%, 5.80% and 8.08% prior days.
ARCA entered at 11:19 and dropped the best offer from $0.1039 to $0.10 immediately. They exited at 11:24 and best offer returned to $0.1039 for eight minutes. But by 11:32 NITE had jumped in with an offer of $0.101 and five minutes later dropped it to $0.10. To prevent any untoward upward movement, ARCA reentered at 11:42 with a $0.10 offer again and stayed in the rest of the day. By 13:45 BTIG had joined ARCA at $0,10, but it made no difference as ATDF had dropped the best offer to $0.0999 at 13:59, ARCA went to $0.099 at 14:07, $0.0981 at 14:28, $0.097 at 14:59, ATDF trumped with $0.0969 at 15:41, and ARCA made one crowning move to $0.096 at 15:58.
These SOBs are one determined bunch.
Needless to say, as can be seen in the buy percentage and the trading breakdowns, the usual stepping around the offers to hit the bids was the order of the day by those firing mortars from over the hill.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Keep in mind the number of abnormally large trades today in the early part of the trading session and a few later in the session.
10:1111:09: 040000 shrs, 04.47% of vol, VWAP $0.0981, 000.0% buys
11:2011:35: 109000 shrs, 12.18% of vol, VWAP $0.1009, 091.7% buys
11:4213:06: 079333 shrs, 08.86% of vol, VWAP $0.0977, 000.0% buys
13:1013:31: 021404 shrs, 02.39% of vol, VWAP $0.0994, 081.3% buys
13:4614:59: 298500 shrs, 33.35% of vol, VWAP $0.0970, 000.0% buys
15:0015:29: 056400 shrs, 06.30% of vol, VWAP $0.0962, 023.8% buys
15:4015:59: 290499 shrs, 32.45% of vol, VWAP $0.0960, 000.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0955$0.0955: 007000 shrs, 00.78% of vol, VWAP $0.0955, 000.0% buys
$0.0960$0.0962: 341499 shrs, 38.15% of vol, VWAP $0.0961, 000.0% buys
$0.0970$0.0970: 289233 shrs, 32.31% of vol, VWAP $0.0970, 004.6% buys
$0.0971$0.0976: 053000 shrs, 05.92% of vol, VWAP $0.0975, 000.0% buys
$0.0980$0.0982: 078000 shrs, 08.71% of vol, VWAP $0.0981, 000.0% buys
$0.1000$0.1010: 126404 shrs, 14.12% of vol, VWAP $0.1008, 092.9% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
12/23 $0.1022 01.33% 32.0%
12/24 $0.1001 02.03% 34.3%
12/24 $0.0986 03.54% 59.6% (sans two trades)
12/26 $0.0970 03.13% 39.8%
12/27 $0.0968 00.23% 29.2%
12/30 $0.1039 +07.37% 29.5%
12/31 $0.1032 00.72% 32.8%
01/02 $0.1003 02.80% 33.7%
01/03 $0.0998 00.52% 45.4%
01/06 $0.1039 +04.15% 70.3%
01/07 $0.1012 02.62% 27.5%
01/08 $0.1010 00.21% 32.8%
01/09 $0.1024 +01.40% 28.5%
01/10 $0.1052 +02.77% 57.8%
01/13 $0.1034 01.76% 19.5%
01/14 $0.0993 03.94% 31.8%
01/15 $0.0973 02.02% 14.6%
Using the new 80% calculation 1/3 onward. This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
01/13: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1035, x 80%: $0.0828
01/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1028, x 80%: $0.0823
01/15: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1022, x 80%: $0.0817
Vol in K, for above days: 904.63 771.17 895.14.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
01/14/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 85, MinTrSz: 169, MaxTrSz: 64700, Vol: 771170, AvTrSz: 9073
Min. Pr: 0.0960, Max Pr: 0.1040, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0993
# Buys, Shares: 36 245127, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1002
# Sells, Shares: 48 511044, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0989
# Unkn, Shares: 1 14999, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0980
Buy:Sell 1:2.08 (31.79% "buys"), DlyShts 91633 (11.88%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 17.93%
FINRA reported trade volume was missing 27,499 today. This is large enough that a noticeable number of daily shorts might be in the missing volume. I went ahead and used what they reported and will revise them when the "workaround" comes available at 9:30 tomorrow ... if it actually "works around" again. So be aware that anything related to daily short sales is subject to revision.
Yesterday I said "In aggregate, an expected return to "normalcy" today?" after describing action outside the "Sold Rush of '14". Today seems to confirm a return to normalcy.
Today 13 of the 85 trades were ~15K or larger, in the 15K  64.7K range. These represented 44.50% of the day's volume. The buys in this group were 45K (13.1% "buys") and the sells were 282.8K (82.5% "sells"). Excluding these trades the buy percentage would have been 46.7%. Unfortunately, it's the larger trades that seem to move things around, not the smaller ones.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0823 vs. $0.0828, $0.0831, $0.0834, $0.0838, $0.0846 and $0.0849 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0794 vs. $0.0827, $0.0842, $0.0819, $0.0808, $0.0809 and $0.0831 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 4.48%, 2.80%, 3.94%, 14.75% and 12.39% (subject to revision)respectively. Price spread today was 8.33% vs. 6.47%, 11.13%, 1.90%, 5.80% and 8.08% prior days.
On the traditional TA stuff everything is essentially the same as yesterday. The shortterm descending resistance continues to apparently provide a ceiling. Trading above it today was much lower than the prior days and we again closed below it. The value appears to be about $0.1020 today.
We again had a lower open, close, high, low and volume.
As I said yesterday, trading lower is looking most likely and today we did so.
The oscillators I watch continue to support dissipation of any signs of strength. All but the momentum indicator continue weakening. I thought the full stochastic would enter oversold territory today, but it didn't make it. None are in oversold territory yet, so we can't hope for recovery nearing based on that.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Keep in mind the number of abnormally large trades today in the early part of the trading session and a few later in the session.
09:3009:34: 064300 shrs, 08.34% of vol, VWAP $0.0993, 000.0% buys
09:3410:43: 160200 shrs, 20.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1004, 036.8% buys
10:4411:14: 121302 shrs, 15.73% of vol, VWAP $0.0981, 017.6% buys
11:4311:44: 049997 shrs, 06.48% of vol, VWAP $0.0988, 100.0% buys
11:4713:57: 107640 shrs, 13.96% of vol, VWAP $0.0980, 040.9% buys
14:0115:18: 142201 shrs, 18.44% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 035.9% buys
15:2115:39: 082462 shrs, 10.69% of vol, VWAP $0.0998, 014.1% buys
15:4215:55: 043068 shrs, 05.58% of vol, VWAP $0.0989, 019.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0960$0.0975: 066505 shrs, 08.62% of vol, VWAP $0.0961, 000.0% buys
$0.0980$0.0989: 192534 shrs, 24.97% of vol, VWAP $0.0983, 015.6% buys
$0.0990$0.0999: 151800 shrs, 19.68% of vol, VWAP $0.0995, 056.0% buys
$0.1000$0.1000: 304668 shrs, 39.51% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 024.4% buys
$0.1015$0.1040: 055663 shrs, 07.22% of vol, VWAP $0.1020, 100.0% buys
On my original experimental inflection point calculations the oneday change, the aggregate change over five days, and the rate of change over those five days have all periods marginally improving. Keep in mind the volatility makes the usefulness of these suspect while we are in the PIPEr environment.
On the newer version, only the three shorter periods improved over one day, while the other three weakened. This seems more rational that what was shown on my original version. Five periods showed improvement in the aggregate fiveday changes and the rate of change improved for all periods. These seem reasonable after yesterday and today's action.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
12/23 $0.1022 01.33% 32.0%
12/24 $0.1001 02.03% 34.3%
12/24 $0.0986 03.54% 59.6% (sans two trades)
12/26 $0.0970 03.13% 39.8%
12/27 $0.0968 00.23% 29.2%
12/30 $0.1039 +07.37% 29.5%
12/31 $0.1032 00.72% 32.8%
01/02 $0.1003 02.80% 33.7%
01/03 $0.0998 00.52% 45.4%
01/06 $0.1039 +04.15% 70.3%
01/07 $0.1012 02.62% 27.5%
01/08 $0.1010 00.21% 32.8%
01/09 $0.1024 +01.40% 28.5%
01/10 $0.1052 +02.77% 57.8%
01/13 $0.1034 01.76% 19.5%
01/14 $0.0993 03.94% 31.8%
Using the new 80% calculation 1/3 onward. This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
01/13: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1035, x 80%: $0.0828
01/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1028, x 80%: $0.0823
Vol in K, for above days: 904.63 771.17.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
01/13/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 112, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 95000, Vol: 904633, AvTrSz: 8077
Min. Pr: 0.1005, Max Pr: 0.1070, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1034
# Buys, Shares: 25 176793, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1045 # Sells, Shares: 79 669840, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1032 # Unkn, Shares: 8 58000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1015
Buy:Sell 1:3.79 (19.54% "buys"), DlyShts 104590 (11.56%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 15.61%
The "Sold Rush of '14" began when ARCA exited the sell side, by withdrawing their $0.103 offer at 14:13, they posted a bid of $0.103 at 14:40, and 446K shares proceeded to continuously hit the bid of $0.103 from 14:41 through 14:56. This was 49.30% of the days volume in 16 minutes. Mores shares in 16 minutes than many days' total volume.
The burning question, of course, was who was selling and who was buying, and why did this action seem so coordinated? ARCA present on the offer helping to keep prices low, they disappear from there and appear on the bid with best offer again (remember the $0.108 bid they had on the open 1/10?), and then the rush begins.
Is this manipulated market or what? Aren't you proud of our financial markets and their regulators?
Anyway, ARCA then exited the buy side and came back on the sell side with a $0.103 offer at 14:58. They became aggressive on the ask, contesting with NITE for the top spot, and had the offer down to $0.101 by 15:18. From there to the close a movement of only 5/100ths of a penny up to $0.1015 was the best offer seen.
In aggregate, an expected return to "normalcy" today? Beyond the above, first, no ARCA on the bid side until 14:58 as described above. They appeared on the offer at 12:29 with the best ask of $0.1031, 1/10th of a penny lower than what had been the best offer. They stayed until 14:13 and were on top most of the time in the $0.103x range. NITE did step in front of them briefly with a $0.103 offer at 14:06 and took the top spot with that same offer when ARCA exited the sell side at 14:13. Nothing much went on for the next twentyeight minutes until the "Sold Rush of '14" began at 14:41, described above.
Well, FINRA finally put out good data at 09:30 this A.M. The daily short sales percentage continues to stick with the script, coming in at 11.56%, down from yesterday's 27.05%, but not down to the abysmal lows of of ~4% and ~8% from 12/31 and 1/2. With the low buy percentage today, this is expected.
10 of the 112 trades were 15K or larger, in the 15K  95K range. These represented 44.60% of the day's volume. The buys in this group were 55K and the sells were 348.5K. Excluding these trades, buy percentages would be 24.3%, not all that much help, likely because of the "Sold Rush of '14".
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0828 vs. $0.0831, $0.0834, $0.0838, $0.0846 and $0.0849 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0827 vs. $0.0842, $0.0819, $0.0808, $0.0809 and $0.0831 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.10%, 4.29%, 1.76%, 54.01% and 80.35% respectively. Price spread today was 6.47% vs. 11.13%, 1.90%, 5.80% and 8.08% prior days.
On the traditional TA stuff, the shortterm descending resistance I have been watching continues to apparently provide a ceiling which is difficult to penetrate. In spite of trading above it, ~$0.1022(?), much of the day and on much of the volume again, we closed below it.
We had a lower open, close, high, low and volume.
I said it's looking a lot like we have entered a (for now) shortterm sideways trading pattern and if we continue to be constrained by that descending line we will not be trading sideways, but lower. So far, this latter case, not the sideways case, is looking most likely.
The oscillators I watch support my "... early signs of strengthening seen yesterday are starting to dissipate". All but the momentum indicators are weakening. None are in oversold territory, although the full stochastic is going to enter that territory, likely today.
I said "With today's buy percentage, ... being relatively healthy, we have to consider the possibility that we are changing behavior. Regardless of price movement, if we see anther couple days of buy percentages above that 35%+ area I've mentioned we'll have to consider that something is changing, and maybe for the better". FAIL! Today's buy percentage was 19.5%, I'd like to discount the 446K of the "Sold Rush of '14", but it doesn't seem rational to discount 49% of the day's volume.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Keep in mind the number of abnormally large trades today in the early part of the trading session and a few later in the session.
09:3009:46: 043740 shrs, 04.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1043, 002.3% buys
09:4909:57: 013000 shrs, 01.44% of vol, VWAP $0.1069, 100.0% buys
10:0610:33: 042000 shrs, 04.64% of vol, VWAP $0.1050, 000.0% buys
10:3512:03: 041900 shrs, 04.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1042, 035.8% buys
12:2012:21: 055000 shrs, 06.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1064, 063.6% buys
12:2612:59: 101200 shrs, 11.19% of vol, VWAP $0.1035, 061.8% buys
13:1214:03: 038800 shrs, 04.29% of vol, VWAP $0.1029, 061.3% buys
14:0414:31: 032200 shrs, 03.56% of vol, VWAP $0.1027, 000.0% buys
14:4014:56: 456000 shrs, 50.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1030, 001.5% buys
15:1115:15: 030393 shrs, 03.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1019, 056.2% buys
15:3615:59: 050400 shrs, 05.57% of vol, VWAP $0.1009, 004.8% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1005$0.1017: 063593 shrs, 07.03% of vol, VWAP $0.1011, 011.5% buys
$0.1020$0.1027: 089500 shrs, 09.89% of vol, VWAP $0.1025, 013.6% buys
$0.1030$0.1030: 493440 shrs, 54.55% of vol, VWAP $0.1030, 007.2% buys
$0.1031$0.1031: 043100 shrs, 04.76% of vol, VWAP $0.1031, 007.0% buys
$0.1040$0.1041: 073400 shrs, 08.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1040, 074.9% buys
$0.1050$0.1050: 077600 shrs, 08.58% of vol, VWAP $0.1050, 012.9% buys
$0.1069$0.1070: 064000 shrs, 07.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1070, 084.4% buys
On my original experimental inflection point calculations the oneday change, the aggregate change over five days, and the rate of change over those five days have all periods weakening. Keep in mind the volatility makes the usefulness of these suspect while we are in the PIPEr environment.
On the newer version, it's exactly the same.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
12/23 $0.1022 01.33% 32.0%
12/24 $0.1001 02.03% 34.3%
12/24 $0.0986 03.54% 59.6% (sans two trades)
12/26 $0.0970 03.13% 39.8%
12/27 $0.0968 00.23% 29.2%
12/30 $0.1039 +07.37% 29.5%
12/31 $0.1032 00.72% 32.8%
01/02 $0.1003 02.80% 33.7%
01/03 $0.0998 00.52% 45.4%
01/06 $0.1039 +04.15% 70.3%
01/07 $0.1012 02.62% 27.5%
01/08 $0.1010 00.21% 32.8%
01/09 $0.1024 +01.40% 28.5%
01/10 $0.1052 +02.77% 57.8%
01/13 $0.1034 01.76% 19.5%
Using the new 80% calculation 1/3 onward. This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
01/13: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1035, x 80%: $0.0828
Vol in K, for above days: 904.63.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
01/10/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 194, MinTrSz: 8, MaxTrSz: 100699, Vol: 1967208, AvTrSz: 10140
Min. Pr: 0.1006, Max Pr: 0.1118, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1052
# Buys, Shares: 104 1137956, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1060
# Sells, Shares: 84 761352, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1041
# Unkn, Shares: 6 67900, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1054
Buy:Sell 1.49:1 (57.85% "buys"), DlyShts 532152 (27.05%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 69.90%
Another strange day. First, ARCA was in on the bid side, very unusual, at 09:32 with the highest bid of $0.108. The next best bids were $0.105 from ATDF and $0.1003 by 60K from NITE. This elevated the early trading range substantially from yesterday's VWAP of $0.1024 ($0.1000$0.1055 range). A feeding frenzy by the buyers ensued (not often seen here), seen in the breakdown by time and price ranges, until ARCA was gone by 09:56, although they were likely gone earlier based on volume and VWAP by 09:38. I couldn't catch all the changes in the bids during the early part of the trading day.
That first rush resulted in almost 17% of the days volume going off at a VWAP of $0.1079 and a very nice buy percentage! This was helped by some larger blocs, ~66K, ~33K, ~22K and several larger than 10K. In the next period we again had some larger blocks of ~60K , ~21K and several of 10K.
In the next period we again had some larger blocks of ~60K , ~21K and several of 10K, but at a much lower VWAP and buy percentage.
We had another volume and price push, with again high buy percentage, from 10:23 through 10:53 as CDEL started it off with a bid of $0.106. This period included a $0.1100 x 100,699 trade, near the day's high of $0.1118.
By 11:30, the euphoria had passed and we began the descent into the (now seminormal?) lateday weakness.
28 of the 194 trades were 15K or larger, including 10 in the 20K+ range, 3 in the 30K+ range, 5 of 50K, 4 60K+, a 70.3K and a 100.7K. These represented 51.91% of the day's volume. The buys in this group were 33.98% of day's volume and the sells were 16.27% of day's volume. Excluding these 28 trades, the day's percentages would be 49.64% buys instead of the 57.85% we got, and 46.66% would be sells. Excluding only the nine largest trades the buy percentage would be 52.78%. These represented 585,875 shares of our volume.
The daily short sales percentage continues to stick with the script. Apparently a leg down was ended yesterday and, as suggested, did not hit the absurd lows again. Today it hit a percentage on track to top somewhere around my descending trend, ~30%, although the two most recent peaks exceeded it. We may have begun another "cycle" and it may be time to add a new trend line. We'll have to wait and see. If it is again in a general trend lower, it should be accompanied by weakening price again.
I guessed wrong yesterday when I said "Anyway, since we are doing a leg down, tomorrow should be a small amount lower again before we reverse and start a leg up. This suggests we won't see the VWAP strengthening over the next couple days".
Today short percentage did a leg up and price appreciated, as it should under this condition.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0831 vs. $0.0834, $0.0838, $0.0846 and $0.0849 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0842 vs. $0.0819, $0.0808, $0.0809 and $0.0831 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.60%, 5.97%, 2.77%, 110.54% and 228.49% respectively. Price spread today was 11.13% vs. 1.90%, 5.80% and 8.08% prior days.
On the traditional TA stuff, I mentioned yesterday the high peaked just above that new shortterm descending resistance I recently constructed and said "I said yesterday if we try and move up, we'll have to consider this line as potential resistance. Today closed above it on strong volume. If we can do the same tomorrow, we might actually have something to get excited about". Well ...
Although we had a higher open, high, low and traded most of the day above it, ~$0.1033 AFAICT, we closed below it at $0.1026. If the market had closed seven minutes sooner we would've closed above the line at $0.1040. Until we see a trend of moreorless continuous strengthening in price and volume, we have to look at yesterday's early price strength as an aberration and we would have a better chance of being correct if we assumed a return to what has heretofore been more normal.
Recently after setting new alltime lows that has been a sideways pattern and it's looking a lot like we have entered a (for now) shortterm sideways trading pattern. This will cause us to violate that descending resistance and close above it, if so. If we continue to be constrained by that descending line we will not be trading sideways, but lower.
The oscillators I watch went mixed today MFI and ADXrelated strengthening while accumulation and distribution, RSI, momentum and Williams %R weakened a bit. Full stochastic started to flatten out. So the early signs of strengthening seen yesterday are starting to dissipate.
My caution seemed somewhat supported by yesterday's buy percentage. I noted though "However, sans the 101K and 145K sells, our buy percentage would have been 38.71%, a decent number. What I think will happen is we'll return to the recent "normal" behavior seen since the advent of the PIPErs". With today's buy percentage, even after removing the excessive number of very large trades, being relatively healthy, we have to consider the possibility that we are changing behavior. Regardless of price movement, if we see anther couple days of buy percentages above that 35%+ area I've mentioned we'll have to consider that something is changing, and maybe for the better.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Keep in mind the number of abnormally large trades today in the early part of the trading session and a few later in the session.
09:3009:38: 332900 shrs, 16.92% of vol, VWAP $0.1079, 065.4% buys
09:3909:56: 115200 shrs, 05.86% of vol, VWAP $0.1016, 039.2% buys
10:1010:22: 157500 shrs, 08.01% of vol, VWAP $0.1037, 087.3% buys
10:2310:46: 290507 shrs, 14.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1084, 062.4% buys
10:4710:53: 263801 shrs, 13.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1076, 077.3% buys
10:5410:58: 056000 shrs, 02.85% of vol, VWAP $0.1050, 019.6% buys
11:0311:23: 103720 shrs, 05.27% of vol, VWAP $0.1037, 024.1% buys
11:3912:04: 110700 shrs, 05.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1030, 012.4% buys
12:1013:19: 070000 shrs, 03.56% of vol, VWAP $0.1020, 041.9% buys
13:2113:49: 041409 shrs, 02.10% of vol, VWAP $0.1021, 100.0% buys
13:5614:32: 051248 shrs, 02.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1030, 100.0% buys
14:3915:33: 206823 shrs, 10.51% of vol, VWAP $0.1026, 059.7% buys
15:3416:00: 167400 shrs, 08.51% of vol, VWAP $0.1028, 034.1% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1006$0.1018: 085700 shrs, 04.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1009, 017.5% buys
$0.1020$0.1026: 333032 shrs, 16.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1022, 040.7% buys
$0.1030$0.1035: 426248 shrs, 21.67% of vol, VWAP $0.1031, 061.8% buys
$0.1040$0.1049: 170820 shrs, 08.68% of vol, VWAP $0.1041, 058.6% buys
$0.1050$0.1050: 070000 shrs, 03.56% of vol, VWAP $0.1050, 028.6% buys
$0.1060$0.1065: 223509 shrs, 11.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1061, 046.9% buys
$0.1070$0.1079: 071099 shrs, 03.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1071, 016.5% buys
$0.1080$0.1080: 335775 shrs, 17.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1080, 071.9% buys
$0.1090$0.1099: 144301 shrs, 07.34% of vol, VWAP $0.1098, 096.5% buys
$0.1100$0.1118: 106724 shrs, 05.43% of vol, VWAP $0.1101, 100.0% buys
On my original experimental inflection point calculations the oneday change had five periods strengthening and one flat, the 10day period. However, the aggregate change over five days had three improved and three weaker. The rate of change over those five days had five periods improving. Keep in mind the volatility makes the usefulness of these suspect while we are in the PIPEr environment.
On the newer version, all six periods improved over one day, none very noticeably. Only two periods improved in the aggregate change over five days and only two improved in the rate of change.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
12/20 $0.1036 00.25% 24.0%
12/23 $0.1022 01.33% 32.0%
12/24 $0.1001 02.03% 34.3%
12/24 $0.0986 03.54% 59.6% (sans two trades)
12/26 $0.0970 03.13% 39.8%
12/27 $0.0968 00.23% 29.2%
12/30 $0.1039 +07.37% 29.5%
12/31 $0.1032 00.72% 32.8%
01/02 $0.1003 02.80% 33.7%
01/03 $0.0998 00.52% 45.4%
01/06 $0.1039 +04.15% 70.3%
01/07 $0.1012 02.62% 27.5%
01/08 $0.1010 00.21% 32.8%
01/09 $0.1024 +01.40% 28.5%
01/10 $0.1052 +02.77% 57.8%
Using the new 80% calculation 1/3 onward. This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
01/06: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1061, x 80%: $0.0849
01/07: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1057, x 80%: $0.0846
01/08: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1048, x 80%: $0.0838
01/09: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1043, x 80%: $0.0834
01/10: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1039, x 80%: $0.0831
Vol in K, for above days: 163.25 849.60 535.20 934.37 1,967.21.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
01/09/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 98, MinTrSz: 23, MaxTrSz: 145000, Vol: 934373, AvTrSz: 9534
Min. Pr: 0.1000, Max Pr: 0.1055, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1024
# Buys, Shares: 25 266450, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1022
# Sells, Shares: 73 667923, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1024
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.51 (28.52% "buys"), DlyShts 162000 (17.34%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 24.25%
Strange day. First, as you can see in the trading breakdown by time we had relatively weak price action through 15:53. And it wasn't due to ARCA as they were only in at 15:06 and were gone by 15:08. They didn't drop the offer much either, $0.1025 before ARCA and $0.1015 was their bid. In the last seven minutes we traded about 53% of the day's volume, including the two AH trades, with VWAPs rising from $0.1010 ending at 15:53 to $0.1023, $0.1033, $0.1047 and $0.1050 in those four periods.
Unfortunately, the buying percentage didn't follow suit  the big trades at the end were 0% buys.
We had a few unusually large blocks that skewed results today. Nine trades greater than 15K accounted for 398,500 shares, 42.65% of the day's volume. If we remove just the two largest trades of the day, 101K and 145K, our VWAP drops to $0.1018, up 0.83% from yesterday's VWAP instead of the actual 1.40% we ended with. This also affected our average trade size, one of the things for which I track the trend as an indicator of coming price action. Without those two large trades we had an average trade size of 7,171 instead of 9,534. If I remove the 9 trades greater than 15K (seems reasonable since 89 trades were 15K or smaller), our average trade size would be 5,684.
Sans the 101K and 145K sells, our buy percentage would have been 38.71%.
The daily short sales percentage stuck with the script today  a leg down is in process, but remains on track to not hit the absurd lows yet. Without those two very large trades, our percentage would have ended at (23.53%) instead of the 17.34% we actually saw. Strangely, this fits with what I said yesterday, "Tomorrow should be below the last reading, possibly substantially but well above that ~8% reading, maybe around 20%?". And  no lie  in yesterday's post I was going to say 23% as my first choice and then I thought it my go around 16% to 17% and, being totally gutless, I went midrange with a 20% call.
Anyway, since we are doing a leg down, tomorrow should be a small amount lower again before we reverse and start a leg up. This suggests we won't see the VWAP strengthening over the next couple days.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0834 vs. $0.0838, $0.0846, $0.0849 and $0.0852 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0819 vs. $0.0808, $0.0809, $0.0831 and $0.0798 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
My tracking through 1/2/2014 had the average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% of $0.0912 vs. $0.0918, $0.0923, $0.0927, $0.0935, $0.0943 ($0.0942 sans two trades), $0.0949, $0.0955, $0.0961 and $0.0966 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0852 vs. $0.0877, $0.0883, $0.0823, $0.0825, $0.0851 ($0.0838 sans two trades), $0.0869, $0.0881, $0.0883 and $0.0921 on prior days.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, 3.53%, 1.40%, 74.58% and 1.34% respectively. Price spread today was 1.90%, vs. 5.80% and 8.08% prior days.
On the traditional TA stuff, the high today peaked just above that new shortterm descending resistance I mentioned I constructed yesterday. We also closed with a higher high, and VWAP, on rising volume. In normal times, positive signs. But we know we are not in normal times and we've received plenty of false signals before. Keep in mind the discussion of the trading in the last 7 minutes vs. the rest of the day (see the trading breakdowns and my comments on them). I said yesterday if we try and move up, we'll have to consider this line as potential resistance. Today closed above it on strong volume. If we can do the same tomorrow, we might actually have something to get excited about.
Contrary to yesterday, the oscillators I watch, except MFI and accumulation and distribution, flipped from suggesting weakness to trying to improve. None are showing strength yet, but they are trying. However, I must continue my "Debbie Downer" role  we've had volatility like this too many times to get all giddy just yet.
My caution seems somewhat supported by the buy percentage, which had picked up a tad from Tuesday's 27.5% to 32.8% yesterday. Even with ARCA almost essentially a noshow, we saw a reduced buy percentage today, 28.5%. However, sans the 101K and 145K sells, our buy percentage would have been 38.71%, a decent number. What I think will happen is we'll return to the recent "normal" behavior seen since the advent of the PIPErs.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the action 15:54  16:00. Not only the price movement, but the 16:00 trade was 145K at $0.0150 plus 5K at the day's high, $0.1055.
09:3010:40: 085000 shrs, 09.10% of vol, VWAP $0.1015, 069.4% buys
10:4213:50: 119523 shrs, 12.79% of vol, VWAP $0.1004, 025.9% buys
14:0015:14: 142750 shrs, 15.28% of vol, VWAP $0.1013, 059.2% buys
15:1715:53: 080700 shrs, 08.64% of vol, VWAP $0.1010, 000.0% buys
15:5415:57: 239000 shrs, 25.58% of vol, VWAP $0.1023, 008.4% buys
15:5815:58: 054000 shrs, 05.78% of vol, VWAP $0.1033, 087.0% buys
15:5915:59: 063400 shrs, 06.79% of vol, VWAP $0.1047, 039.4% buys
16:0016:00: 150000 shrs, 16.05% of vol, VWAP $0.1050, 000.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range. The last row includes a 145K trade at $0.1050.
$0.1000$0.1005: 129823 shrs, 13.89% of vol, VWAP $0.1002, 023.9% buys
$0.1010$0.1010: 134650 shrs, 14.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1010, 000.3% buys
$0.1013$0.1020: 262000 shrs, 28.04% of vol, VWAP $0.1018, 054.6% buys
$0.1024$0.1025: 157500 shrs, 16.86% of vol, VWAP $0.1025, 023.5% buys
$0.1030$0.1045: 060000 shrs, 06.42% of vol, VWAP $0.1038, 050.0% buys
$0.1049$0.1055: 190400 shrs, 20.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1050, 013.1% buys
On my original experimental inflection point calculations the oneday change had four periods minimally weakening and two marginally strengthening, as did the aggregate change over five days. The rate of change over those five days had all periods weakening. Keep in mind the volatility makes the usefulness of these suspect while we are in the PIPEr environment.
On the newer version, five periods improved over one day, one quite noticeably. The five day aggregate change. Five periods improved in the aggregate change over five days as well. The rate of change was improved for four periods and weaker for two.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
12/20 $0.1036 00.25% 24.0%
12/23 $0.1022 01.33% 32.0%
12/24 $0.1001 02.03% 34.3%
12/24 $0.0986 03.54% 59.6% (sans two trades)
12/26 $0.0970 03.13% 39.8%
12/27 $0.0968 00.23% 29.2%
12/30 $0.1039 +07.37% 29.5%
12/31 $0.1032 00.72% 32.8%
01/02 $0.1003 02.80% 33.7%
01/03 $0.0998 00.52% 45.4%
01/06 $0.1039 +04.15% 70.3%
01/07 $0.1012 02.62% 27.5%
01/08 $0.1010 00.21% 32.8%
01/09 $0.1024 +01.40% 28.5%
Using the new 80% calculation 1/3 onward. This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
01/06: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1061, x 80%: $0.0849
01/07: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1057, x 80%: $0.0846
01/08: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1048, x 80%: $0.0838
01/09: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1043, x 80%: $0.0834
Vol in K, for above days: 163.25 849.60 535.20 934.37.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are are in the latest daily post above.
01/08/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 61, MinTrSz: 1000, MaxTrSz: 44000, Vol: 535199, AvTrSz: 8774
Min. Pr: 0.1000, Max Pr: 0.1019, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1010
# Buys, Shares: 25 175299, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1013
# Sells, Shares: 36 359900, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1008
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.05 (32.75% "buys"), DlyShts 164199 (30.68%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 45.62%
Unfortunately, not much changed. ARCA (and NITE, ATDF, BTIG) continues it's behavior, along with daily shorts, buy percentage, hitting the bid and, most importantly, VWAP. I can't find a silver lining, other than it comforts me to realize that I've got a handle on the mechanics of this. Small comfort that is.
Another day over $40K today  finished at $54035.55 vs. $85,961.39, $16,961.10 and $33,048.89 prior days.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0838 vs. $0.0846, $0.0849 and $0.0852 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0808 vs. $0.0809, $0.0831 and $0.0798 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
My tracking through 1/2/2014 had the average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% of $0.0912 vs. $0.0918, $0.0923, $0.0927, $0.0935, $0.0943 ($0.0942 sans two trades), $0.0949, $0.0955, $0.0961 and $0.0966 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0852 vs. $0.0877, $0.0883, $0.0823, $0.0825, $0.0851 ($0.0838 sans two trades), $0.0869, $0.0881, $0.0883 and $0.0921 on prior days.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, 3.69%, 0.21%, 37.01% and 41.20% respectively. Price spread today was 1.90%, vs. 5.80% and 8.08% prior days.
On the traditional TA stuff, I've constructed a shortterm descending resistance originating at the high of 11/15/13, $0.135, with touches at the high of 12/18/13, $0.1158, and the highs of 1/61/7, $0.107 and $0.1056 respectively. Our high has dropped away from that line. My early assessment is that we are continuing the longterm trend, thus far, of descending price. If we try and move up, we'll have to consider this line as potential resistance as it has three points, the minimum needed for high likelihood that the line is indeed resistance. This line will be pinching down to the descending support, currently around ~$0.093. We need to break above the shortterm descending resistance to avoid violating the $0.09 floor we want to maintain.
Soon.
Both volume and all the oscillators I watch suggest weakness for now. A few oscillators are neutral but most are weakening.
The buy percentage picked up a tad from yesterday's 27.5% to 32.8%, still not a great number, especially with VWAP in the bottom range of $0.10xx. Completely understandable when folks know exactly what will happen on the days ARCA is in for the duration.
Speaking of which, ARCA was in from 10:28 until 11:16 (strange that both times are the same six minutes later that yesterday?) and came back at 11:25 and exited at 12:20. back t 12:48 and out at 13:25.
On their first foray, they dropped best offer immediately from $0.1051 to $0.102 and just sat on it while ATDF, NITE and BTIG ran the offers down to as low as $0.1001 (10:38 NITE) while achieving only $0.1019 for a couple brief periods as the high. Once ARCA vacated the premises, the offers remain in the $0.1017$0.1019 area.
On the next appearance ARCA took the offer from $0.1017 to $0.101 immediately. When they finished that session the offer immediately went back to $0.1019.
Their final act of destruction was milder  they took the offer from $0.1019 only to $0.1012. However NITE wasn't going to let this pass unnoticed and less than a minute later put in an offer of $0.1002. That got bought and ARCA's $0.1012 was on top again within twenty minutes.
When ARCA left, offer moved immediately to $0.1018. Thereafter the lowest seen was $0.1011, courtesy of ATDF and NITE battling for supremacy. BTIG held steady with a $0.1013 offer and did shed some shares.
FINRA got it right on the evening run, so I'll touch on daily short sales. The percentage continues to act as expected, making it's normally choppy moves up and down in a compressing range until the time for a new cycle arrives. The trend can be seen: 4.47%, 8.07%, 31.67%, 34.72%, 32.87% and 30.68%. Tomorrow should be below the last reading, possibly substantially but well above that ~8% reading, maybe around 20%?
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3011:03: 047500 shrs, 08.88% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 004.2% buys
11:1411:16: 042000 shrs, 07.85% of vol, VWAP $0.1010, 095.2% buys
11:1812:47: 078800 shrs, 14.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1015, 093.0% buys
12:5213:34: 093500 shrs, 17.47% of vol, VWAP $0.1010, 016.0% buys
13:3513:53: 119500 shrs, 22.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1009, 018.0% buys
13:5415:59: 153899 shrs, 28.76% of vol, VWAP $0.1010, 015.3% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1000$0.1002: 121500 shrs, 22.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 009.9% buys
$0.1010$0.1011: 203700 shrs, 38.06% of vol, VWAP $0.1010, 036.0% buys
$0.1012$0.1013: 129999 shrs, 24.29% of vol, VWAP $0.1012, 015.4% buys
$0.1015$0.1019: 080000 shrs, 14.95% of vol, VWAP $0.1018, 087.5% buys
On my original experimental inflection point calculations the oneday change had all six periods improving, but minimally in all cases. All periods for the aggregate fiveday changes also improved and the rate of change over those five days had four periods improve. Both of these latter sets of changes were not large. As I've mentioned, the volatility makes the usefulness of these suspect while we are in the PIPEr environment.
On the newer version, we also had all periods improving over one day, as well ass all six periods over the five day aggregate change. The rate of change was also improved for all six periods. As with the original, the changes were not substantial.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
12/18 $0.1083 02.11% 32.9%
12/19 $0.1039 04.10% 17.0%
12/20 $0.1036 00.25% 24.0%
12/23 $0.1022 01.33% 32.0%
12/24 $0.1001 02.03% 34.3%
12/24 $0.0986 03.54% 59.6% (sans two trades)
12/26 $0.0970 03.13% 39.8%
12/27 $0.0968 00.23% 29.2%
12/30 $0.1039 +07.37% 29.5%
12/31 $0.1032 00.72% 32.8%
01/02 $0.1003 02.80% 33.7%
01/03 $0.0998 00.52% 45.4%
01/06 $0.1039 +04.15% 70.3%
01/07 $0.1012 02.62% 27.5%
01/08 $0.1010 00.21% 32.8%
Using the new 80% calculation 1/3 onward. This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
01/06: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1061, x 80%: $0.0849
01/07: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1057, x 80%: $0.0846
01/08: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1048, x 80%: $0.0838
Vol in K, for above days: 163.25 849.60 535.20.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
01/07/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 96, MinTrSz: 23, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 849599, AvTrSz: 8850
Min. Pr: 0.1000, Max Pr: 0.1058, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1012
# Buys, Shares: 33 233466, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1017
# Sells, Shares: 62 606133, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1010
# Unkn, Shares: 1 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1001
Buy:Sell 1:2.60 (27.48% "buys"), DlyShts 279266 (32.87%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 46.07%
We were able to trade over $40K today  finished at $85,961.39 vs. $16,961.10 and $33,048.89 the prior two days.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0846 vs. $0.0849, $0.0852 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0809 vs. $0.0831 and $0.0798 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
My tracking through 1/2/2014 had the average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% of $0.0912 vs. $0.0918, $0.0923, $0.0927, $0.0935, $0.0943 ($0.0942 sans two trades), $0.0949, $0.0955, $0.0961 and $0.0966 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0852 vs. $0.0877, $0.0883, $0.0823, $0.0825, $0.0851 ($0.0838 sans two trades), $0.0869, $0.0881, $0.0883 and $0.0921 on prior days.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 1.01%, 1.12%, 2.62%, 420.43% and 392.75% respectively. Price spread today was 5.80% vs. 8.08% yesterday.
The traditional TA stuff, we have moved above a new descending support encompassing the new alltime low. But both volume and all the oscillators I watch suggest this is not a strong move. Volume is up on a lower VWAP and all oscillators a weak, and most weakening further. It's hard to assess the effect of yesterday's low volume though.
Yesterday's excessive buy percentage was replaced something more in or recent normal range, which is not great. Since we had useful volume today, I think all my experimental stuff can be used, accounting for the volatility of course..
ARCA was in from 10:22 until 11:11 and came back at 14;20 and remained through the end of the day. ARCA wasn't aggressive with it's offers in the first session, and that resulted in the other "usual suspects" also being less aggressive with their offers. This resulted in the offers staying "high" (~$0.1049~$0.1057) until 13:01, when a 100K bid @ $$0.1001 from ETRF appeared. This seemed to get the sellers all excited and BTIG, NITE and ATDF worked the offer to as low as $0.1002 by 13:32. Offers recovered a bit through 14:15 to $0.1047, but immediately collapsed again to $0.1015, courtesy of ARCA when the came back at 14:20, and remained low through the rest of the day, topping at $0.102.
The daily short sales percentage, which came back up yesterday as expected, started behaving normally, moving a bit lower today. This is the normal recent behavior as the "leg down" falls, likely bottoming above the recent lows and starting another upleg.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3010:05: 024355 shrs, 02.87% of vol, VWAP $0.1035, 047.2% buys
10:0810:43: 053267 shrs, 06.45% of vol, VWAP $0.1007, 036.9% buys
11:1112:33: 156300 shrs, 20.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1019, 013.2% buys
12:3313:38: 248000 shrs, 40.28% of vol, VWAP $0.1001, 004.0% buys
14:1214:25: 200000 shrs, 54.40% of vol, VWAP $0.1027, 042.5% buys
14:2715:59: 167677 shrs, 100.00% of vol, VWAP $0.1002, 045.7% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1000$0.1005: 449277 shrs, 52.88% of vol, VWAP $0.1001, 019.3% buys
$0.1010$0.1019: 164933 shrs, 19.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1017, 032.7% buys
$0.1020$0.1022: 103890 shrs, 12.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1020, 049.4% buys
$0.1030$0.1030: 100000 shrs, 11.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1030, 000.0% buys
$0.1047$0.1058: 031499 shrs, 03.71% of vol, VWAP $0.1051, 100.0% buys
On my original experimental inflection point calculations the oneday change had all six periods weakening, as were four of the periods for the aggregate fiveday changes and the rate of change over those five days.
On the newer version, we also had all periods weakening over one day and, unlike the original, all six periods over five days weakening. The changes were more substantial too. The rate of change was also weakening in all six periods.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
12/18 $0.1083 02.11% 32.9%
12/19 $0.1039 04.10% 17.0%
12/20 $0.1036 00.25% 24.0%
12/23 $0.1022 01.33% 32.0%
12/24 $0.1001 02.03% 34.3%
12/24 $0.0986 03.54% 59.6% (sans two trades)
12/26 $0.0970 03.13% 39.8%
12/27 $0.0968 00.23% 29.2%
12/30 $0.1039 +07.37% 29.5%
12/31 $0.1032 00.72% 32.8%
01/02 $0.1003 02.80% 33.7%
01/03 $0.0998 00.52% 45.4%
01/06 $0.1039 +04.15% 70.3%
01/07 $0.1012 02.62% 27.5%
Using the new 80% calculation 1/3 onward. This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
01/06: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1061, x 80%: $0.0849
01/07: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1057, x 80%: $0.0846
Vol in K, for above days: 163.25 849.60.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
01/06/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 28, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 17300, Vol: 163250, AvTrSz: 5830
Min. Pr: 0.0990, Max Pr: 0.1070, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1039
# Buys, Shares: 20 114750, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1043
# Sells, Shares: 7 43500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1031
# Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1020
Buy:Sell 2.64:1 (70.29% "buys"), DlyShts 56675 (34.72%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 130.29%
For the second consecutive day we were not able to trade $40K today  finished at $16961.10 vs. $33,048.89 yesterday.
Don't forget that as of 1/3/2014, I'm be using the 80% calculation.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0849 vs. $0.0852 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0831 vs $0.0798 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
My tracking through 1/2/2014 had the average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% of $0.0912 vs. $0.0918, $0.0923, $0.0927, $0.0935, $0.0943 ($0.0942 sans two trades), $0.0949, $0.0955, $0.0961 and $0.0966 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0852 vs. $0.0877, $0.0883, $0.0823, $0.0825, $0.0851 ($0.0838 sans two trades), $0.0869, $0.0881, $0.0883 and $0.0921 on prior days.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 3.88%, 6.47%, 4.15%, 50.72% and 45.98% respectively. Price spread today was 8.08%.
Because the volume was so low I'll skip the traditional TA stuff.
The buy percentage today was excessive. Unfortunately because it was without volume and some other factors strengthening we can't read much into it.
ARCA was in from 09:57 until 14:06. ARCA and ATDF were the only aggressive sellers until ARCA exited. Then NITE and ATDF did it, but no so aggressively.
The daily short sales percentage came back up, just as expected. It went above the longerterm trend line. The next step should be lower, but within a more normal range, maybe midrange of the short and longterm lines.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:56: 060600 shrs, 37.12% of vol, VWAP $0.1050, 055.4% buys
12:1713:52: 035175 shrs, 21.55% of vol, VWAP $0.1011, 053.1% buys
14:0115:52: 067475 shrs, 41.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1044, 092.6% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0990$0.1025: 043500 shrs, 26.65% of vol, VWAP $0.1011, 046.0% buys
$0.1025$0.1049: 057075 shrs, 34.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1042, 100.0% buys
$0.1050$0.1059: 052075 shrs, 31.90% of vol, VWAP $0.1053, 052.0% buys
$0.1060$0.1070: 012600 shrs, 07.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1066, 100.0% buys
Again because of the low volume, I'll skip discussion of any of my experimental inflection point calculations, trade size, etc.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
12/18 $0.1083 02.11% 32.9%
12/19 $0.1039 04.10% 17.0%
12/20 $0.1036 00.25% 24.0%
12/23 $0.1022 01.33% 32.0%
12/24 $0.1001 02.03% 34.3%
12/24 $0.0986 03.54% 59.6% (sans two trades)
12/26 $0.0970 03.13% 39.8%
12/27 $0.0968 00.23% 29.2%
12/30 $0.1039 +07.37% 29.5%
12/31 $0.1032 00.72% 32.8%
01/02 $0.1003 02.80% 33.7%
01/03 $0.0998 00.52% 45.4%
01/06 $0.1039 +04.15% 70.3%
Using the new 80% calculation 1/3 onward. This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
01/06: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1061, x 80%: $0.0849
Vol in K, for above days: 163.25.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
01/03/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 58, MinTrSz: 1, MaxTrSz: 18000, Vol: 331283, AvTrSz: 5712
Min. Pr: 0.0953, Max Pr: 0.1005, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0998
# Buys, Shares: 22 150308, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1003
# Sells, Shares: 36 180975, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0993
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.20 (45.37% "buys"), DlyShts 104908 (31.67%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 57.97%
We were not able to trade $40K today  finished at $33,048.89.
Starting today, 1/3/2014, I'll be using the 80% calculation.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0852. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0798. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
My tracking through 1/2/2014 had the average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% of $0.0912 vs. $0.0918, $0.0923, $0.0927, $0.0935, $0.0943 ($0.0942 sans two trades), $0.0949, $0.0955, $0.0961 and $0.0966 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0852 vs. $0.0877, $0.0883, $0.0823, $0.0825, $0.0851 ($0.0838 sans two trades), $0.0869, $0.0881, $0.0883 and $0.0921 on prior days.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.73%, 6.07%, 0.52%, 76.82% and 9.04% respectively. Price spread today returned to a more normal range  5.46%. Note the volumes of the higher price ranges in the trade breakdown by time below though.
On the traditional TA front we closed above the longterm descending resistance ... Thanks to a single last trade of 2.5K at $0.1003. It wasn't totally out of character though  we had ~51.5K in nine trades at that price in the afternoon. I wouldn't read much into it though  not enough volume today to assign any weight to it. The majority of our trading was barely above it. The line, which is still descending, looks AFICT to be ~$0.0978.
All the oscillators I watch are weak too, so nothing worth detailing.
ARCA didn't come in until 14:59. You can see in the intraday breakdown by time they didn't have the usual effect. They only undercut the best offer by 1/100th of a penny and when the bids improved around the same time, thanks to someone at NITE bidding up at $0.099 from the best bid at that time of $0.0981. NITE was taken out pretty quickly and bid fell back to $0.0981. NITE did it again at 15:35, saving the market from increased lateday weakness.
Contrary to what we've seen the last couple days, the daily short sales percentage came back up, just as I was wishing. It'll probably drop again, but it should be in one of it's normal cycles where the lows are higher than those absurd ones recently seen. If this will stick with past behavior, there's an opportunity for our lows to start a little move up. We need it as our low today was only 3/100ths of a penny above our recent new alltime low.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:30: 008375 shrs, 02.53% of vol, VWAP $0.0959, 000.0% buys
09:3711:39: 133110 shrs, 40.18% of vol, VWAP $0.1001, 036.8% buys
12:2513:10: 018900 shrs, 05.71% of vol, VWAP $0.0981, 000.0% buys
13:1814:59: 111998 shrs, 33.81% of vol, VWAP $0.1002, 077.7% buys
15:1215:12: 030000 shrs, 09.06% of vol, VWAP $0.0984, 000.0% buys
15:3815:42: 028900 shrs, 08.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 049.5% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0953$0.0990: 057275 shrs, 17.29% of vol, VWAP $0.0979, 000.0% buys
$0.1000$0.1000: 161500 shrs, 48.75% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 023.4% buys
$0.1002$0.1003: 058998 shrs, 17.81% of vol, VWAP $0.1003, 100.0% buys
$0.1003$0.1005: 053510 shrs, 16.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1004, 100.0% buys
The buy percentage today was really decent. Unfortunately it was without volume and some other factors strengthening. So the inflection point calculations have to be taken with a grain of salt.
My original experimental inflection point calculations continued to suggest reducing weakening on the oneday changes with five periods showing marginal improvement. The aggregate change over five days had four weaker readings though. Most concerning would be the rate of change over those days  six periods weakening.
My newer oneday calculations' oneday changes are in agreement with marginal improvement in five periods. The aggregate change over five days also has five periods with marginal improvement, as is the case wit the rate of change over five days.
The charts still have nothing that suggests price improvement is beginning..
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
12/17 $0.1106 00.27% 19.2%
12/18 $0.1083 02.11% 32.9%
12/19 $0.1039 04.10% 17.0%
12/20 $0.1036 00.25% 24.0%
12/23 $0.1022 01.33% 32.0%
12/24 $0.1001 02.03% 34.3%
12/24 $0.0986 03.54% 59.6% (sans two trades)
12/26 $0.0970 03.13% 39.8%
12/27 $0.0968 00.23% 29.2%
12/30 $0.1039 +07.37% 29.5%
12/31 $0.1032 00.72% 32.8%
01/02 $0.1003 02.80% 33.7%
01/03 $0.0998 00.52% 45.4%
Using the new 80% calculation 1/3 onward. This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
12/30: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1086, x 85%: $0.0923
12/31: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1080, x 85%: $0.0918
01/02: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1073, x 85%: $0.0912
01/03: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1066, x 80%: $0.0852
Vol in K, for above days: 465.26 1,003.47 1,429.45 331.28.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
01/02/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 135, MinTrSz: 125, MaxTrSz: 200000, Vol: 1429453, AvTrSz: 10589
Min. Pr: 0.0960, Max Pr: 0.1070, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1003
# Buys, Shares: 61 481975, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1008
# Sells, Shares: 74 947478, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1000
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.97 (33.72% "buys"), DlyShts 115332 (08.07%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 12.17%
A hat tip to the investor that had a 276K bid at $0.1011 through NITE that helped keep the VWAP a tad higher than it otherwise might have been. When the price was finally hit, 76K had wandered off, but the 200K remaining went in one trade. Without that trade, VWAP would've been $0.1002. Worse, the 200K that went to $0.1011 might have been dumped at $0.09xx!
This bid looks like it might be the one at 15:45 yesterday when NITE presented a bid at $0.1027 for 200K.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 85% today is $0.0912 vs. $0.0918, $0.0923, $0.0927, $0.0935, $0.0943 ($0.0942 sans two trades), $0.0949, $0.0955, $0.0961 and $0.0966 on prior days. 85% of today's VWAP is $0.0852 vs. $0.0877, $0.0883, $0.0823, $0.0825, $0.0851 ($0.0838 sans two trades), $0.0869, $0.0881, $0.0883 and $0.0921 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 5.88%, 0.47%, 2.80%, 42.45% and 157.21% respectively. Price spread today was excessive  11.46%. Note the volumes of the higher price ranges in the trade breakdown by time below though.
On the traditional TA front I'm sorry to report that we closed below that longerterm descending resistance we had managed to remain above the past two days. This puts us below both potential support lines  both descending. All the oscillators I watch are weakening.
I'd mentioned a couple times that this recovery from new alltime lows seemed slower than in the past and said I wasn't not encouraged. Here we are with a close only 1/10th of a penny above the alltime low established just five days past.
ARCA came in at 09:59 and immediately dropped the best offer from $0.1065 to $0.104. The usual folks saw their appearance and started fight for position  NITE offers $0.1025 at 10:16, $0.1023 at 10:25, ATDF does $0.1019 at 11:35, and by 11:36 ARCA oneupped them with a $0.10 offer. With ARCA out sometime between 12:04 and 12:22 for a few minutes, ATDF had the unmitigated gall to make an offer at $0.1049 at 12:22. Well, we couldn't let that stand and ARCA came back in at 12:32 with a $0.102 offer.
That started the cycle again and no offer above $0.103 subsequent to 12:59. We did get offers as low as $0.10 for quite a while and finally ended with a $0.0998 at 15:53.
We also had lateday weakness, as used to be quite normal ("used to be" means a week ago I guess).
No use detailing the number of up and down bids and asks in such a scenario, so I won't.
I've mentioned the daily short sales percentage of 06.88% Monday foretold Tuesday's 4.47% and said "Again, if this doesn't bounce back quickly I don't think we'll be moving up". We're still in that boat with today's ~8%, but at least it's started moving up. But we have a way to go before I think it will be suggesting we might be able to see some small price rise.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:42: 024025 shrs, 01.68% of vol, VWAP $0.1065, 091.7% buys
09:5111:30: 097550 shrs, 06.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1021, 008.2% buys
11:3111:59: 473756 shrs, 33.14% of vol, VWAP $0.1007, 017.5% buys
12:1812:26: 091000 shrs, 06.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1010, 059.3% buys
12:3112:59: 052725 shrs, 03.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1033, 075.3% buys
13:4714:45: 071700 shrs, 05.02% of vol, VWAP $0.1014, 050.9% buys
14:5415:12: 119997 shrs, 08.39% of vol, VWAP $0.1010, 071.2% buys
15:1315:37: 070252 shrs, 04.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1002, 062.0% buys
15:4215:49: 228748 shrs, 16.00% of vol, VWAP $0.0995, 019.2% buys
15:5015:59: 199700 shrs, 13.97% of vol, VWAP $0.0967, 033.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0960$0.0975: 143700 shrs, 10.05% of vol, VWAP $0.0961, 000.0% buys
$0.0980$0.0998: 305948 shrs, 21.40% of vol, VWAP $0.0993, 052.3% buys
$0.1000$0.1005: 254677 shrs, 17.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1001, 037.2% buys
$0.1010$0.1010: 250279 shrs, 17.51% of vol, VWAP $0.1010, 026.8% buys
$0.1011$0.1019: 301497 shrs, 21.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1012, 030.3% buys
$0.1020$0.1023: 124103 shrs, 08.68% of vol, VWAP $0.1020, 016.6% buys
$0.1040$0.1065: 030849 shrs, 02.16% of vol, VWAP $0.1051, 096.8% buys
$0.1070$0.1070: 018400 shrs, 01.29% of vol, VWAP $0.1070, 100.0% buys
My original experimental inflection point calculations, which had again weakened in four periods on the oneday changes, did an aboutface today. Not surprising since this version only looks at buy percentage and volume, and today had a really decent volume with a buy percentage quite close to that 35%+ target I want. It gave us a split of three improved and three deteriorated. The aggregate change over five days gave us five improved, and the rate of change over five days gave us six. This version is approaching useless in our current environment because it is so easily whipped around. Maybe I'll save myself some work by dumping it soon.
My newer oneday calculations are doing better  all periods were weakening yesterday and today four continue to weaken. Only the two shortest periods have marginal improvement showing. The aggregate change over five days had all periods weaker yesterday and today has four continuing to weaken. The rate of change over five days has four improving. This is correct as the combination of higher volume and improving buy percentage and other factors should suggest that rate of weakening is slowing.
My next version will incorporate some more factors that have proven useful.
I mentioned yesterday that the chart beginning formation of a pattern suggesting bullishness had stopped. That's still holding true.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
12/16 $0.1109 01.44% 25.8%
12/17 $0.1106 00.27% 19.2%
12/18 $0.1083 02.11% 32.9%
12/19 $0.1039 04.10% 17.0%
12/20 $0.1036 00.25% 24.0%
12/23 $0.1022 01.33% 32.0%
12/24 $0.1001 02.03% 34.3%
12/24 $0.0986 03.54% 59.6% (sans two trades)
12/26 $0.0970 03.13% 39.8%
12/27 $0.0968 00.23% 29.2%
12/30 $0.1039 +07.37% 29.5%
12/31 $0.1032 00.72% 32.8%
01/02 $0.1003 02.80% 33.7%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
12/30: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1086, x 85%: $0.0923
12/31: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1080, x 85%: $0.0918
01/02: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1073, x 85%: $0.0912
Vol in K, for above days: 465.26 1,003.47 1,429.45.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
Disclosure: I am long AXPW.
Additional disclosure: I am very experimental and sometimes do my TA in nontraditional fashions. Keep this in mind when considering anything I post and be sure and consult other sources and do your due diligence. I'm barely responsible for myself and certainly not responsible for anyone else or their actions. :)
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Watching for your comments as well regarding the Pipers and short activity, volume and price etc.
Will be interesting to watch how AXPW plays out in 2014.
Happy New Year.
Not sure if this question is answered above, apologies if it is...
1. both the stock action and
2. what appears or not appears to be going on with the company?.
HardToLove