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AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 12/01/2014 $AXPW http://seekingalpha.com/p/237ad Nov 29, 2014

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AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 03/03/2014 3 comments
I've downsized the stuff hoping to have fewer problems when I update. So, links to blogs older than the 01/01/2014 version, PIPE discussions, one year charts will be found only in that and older blogs. I've shortened most historical short sales related stuff, which has minimal utility.
In the below chart the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!
(rightclick and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)
Next are modified inflection point calculation charts bracketing a price chart for comparison. The false bullish moves and contrary moves of the 5day are gone.
The two identically calculated inflection points are calculated differently from the original above. I have two different presentations of this newer version. The top one has all periods on the same scale. The bottom one has longer periods on the left scale and shorter periods on the right scale. The hope is that shorter period changes will be easier to spot. More work to do, this is a start, hopefully.
I've identified some changes I want to try on the new inflection point calculations but haven't had time to implement them yet. I'll work them in over time after a little experimentation.
Comments and further suggestions welcome.
(rightclick and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)
Older stuff for "2013 Dly Sht % of 'sells' values", Weekly 85% price summaries going back to 6/14/2012, and some daytoday VWAP changes stuff going back to 10/09 are available in AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 10/1/2013.
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'", inflection point calculation values, and endofweek 80% (was 85%) PIPE price factors are now only in the latest daily comment.
The PIPE agreement was amended, changing the 85% calculation to 80%, among other minor things. See AXION POWER INTERNATIONAL, INC., FORM 8K, Filed 01/03/14 for the Period Ending 01/02/14.
03/31/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 98, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 786801, AvTrSz: 8029
Min. Pr: 0.1570, Max Pr: 0.1793, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1673
# Buys, Shares: 27 304323, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1695
# Sells, Shares: 70 477478, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1658
# Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1677
Buy:Sell 1:1.57 (38.68% "buys"), DlyShts 258136 (32.81%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 54.06%
There was 1 afterhours trade for 70K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 716,801 to 786,801 and would lower the short percentage from 36.01% to 32.81%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 258,136 to 328,136 and the short percentage would be 41.71%.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0812 vs. $0.0807, $0.0800, $0.0792, $0.0784, $0.0777, $0.0773, $0.0769, $0.0767 and $0.0766 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1338 vs. $0.1337 vs. $0.1261, $0.1361, $0.1359, $0.1353, $0.1363, $0.1339, $0.1354 and $0.1376 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.19%, 0.17%, 0.05%, 28.00% and 17.91% respectively. Price spread today was 14.20% vs. 14.23%, 10.67%, 6.71%, 9.20%, 11.11%, 6.06%, 4.87%, 12.84% and 10.43% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 9 of the 98 trades, 9.18%. These 331,100 shares were 42.08% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1669. Only 2 of these trades, 22.22%, were buys of 150,000 shares, 45.30% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1677. 7 of the larger trades, 77.78%, were sells of 181,100 shares, 54.70% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1661.
The other 89 trades, 90.82% of the day's trades, traded 455,701 shares, 57.92% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1675. 25 trades, 28.09%, were buys and accounted for 154323 shares, 33.86% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1713. 63 trades, 70.79%, were sells and accounted for 296,378 shares, 65.04% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1656.
Yesterday I said price range moved right back into where it looks like consolidation again. Today the top was right in the range of recent prior highs, causing me to adjust my resistance to change the touch points (origin remains at the high of 3/17, $0.18) to be the high of 3/14, $0.18, yielding a horizontal resistance. If this turns out as the line suggests, we will be consolidating in a sideways trading channel. We'll have to stay tuned to see if the quarterly reporting and conference call will have any effect.
I had mentioned yesterday that this adjustment might be needed.
I mentioned yesterday the volume said the move up doesn't have strength even though we had a move up in all other respects. Today the volume was a bit higher (see above), but the price action was essentially the same, with piddling variations, in the highs and lows. So I can't see "strength" here even with improved volume.
As with yesterday, we'll have to see if the reporting has some effect.
Again, the oscillators were barely affected, with four again making minuscule gains, two weakening and one flat. Allinall, consolidation again. Full stochastic did cross above its average, but with no support from volume or other indicators I don't see it as being meaningful.
I do want to note, again, that our traditional lateday weakness seems to be no longer the normal behavior. Lateday strength seems the M.O. More days than not now, and today seems to support that assessment.
My original experimental inflection point calculations are back in plain old volatile mode. Yesterday oneday changes had the 10 and 25day periods weakening and the others making small improvements. Today four improved marginally while the 10 and 200day periods weakened. The change over five days went from all periods improved to split three and three. The rate of change has one flat reading and the others improved, indicating reducing weakening.
The newer version oneday changes, which had switched to all periods showing a bit of strengthening, still has five in that state. The change over five days. Also all periods strengthening, still has five doing so. The average change over those days has all periods showing improvement.
The newer version's chart pattern, which had been suggesting a move lower was coming, is now abandoning that stance and suggesting what in the past has been a sideways, mostly, behavior.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:56: 394063 shrs, 15.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1590, 037.8% buys
10:0010:29: 298081 shrs, 11.98% of vol, VWAP $0.1576, 057.9% buys
10:3010:46: 133800 shrs, 05.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1595, 035.4% buys
10:5911:14: 585813 shrs, 23.55% of vol, VWAP $0.1654, 078.0% buys
11:1911:31: 112864 shrs, 04.54% of vol, VWAP $0.1672, 024.0% buys
11:3211:51: 048000 shrs, 01.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1647, 054.3% buys
11:5312:20: 206740 shrs, 08.31% of vol, VWAP $0.1756, 073.1% buys
12:2312:58: 123998 shrs, 04.98% of vol, VWAP $0.1693, 077.0% buys
13:0614:01: 076600 shrs, 03.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1722, 056.9% buys
14:0214:15: 115899 shrs, 04.66% of vol, VWAP $0.1730, 046.1% buys
14:1614:28: 058000 shrs, 02.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1791, 100.0% buys
14:3115:05: 055858 shrs, 02.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1720, 000.1% buys
15:1415:35: 130466 shrs, 05.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1748, 011.7% buys
15:3715:59: 147500 shrs, 05.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1764, 044.7% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1503$0.1550: 104900 shrs, 04.22% of vol, VWAP $0.1523, 023.8% buys
$0.1566$0.1599: 271407 shrs, 10.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1583, 064.6% buys
$0.1600$0.1641: 688721 shrs, 27.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1611, 039.5% buys
$0.1650$0.1699: 436160 shrs, 17.53% of vol, VWAP $0.1657, 090.1% buys
$0.1700$0.1740: 528731 shrs, 21.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1712, 037.2% buys
$0.1750$0.1795: 426564 shrs, 17.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1777, 063.1% buys
$0.1800$0.1800: 031199 shrs, 01.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1800, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
03/11 $0.1799 10.04% 44.6%
03/12 $0.1562 13.18% 27.3%
03/13 $0.1606 +02.82% 67.5%
03/14 $0.1605 00.09% 76.3%
03/17 $0.1701 +06.02% 68.5%
03/18 $0.1707 +00.33% 55.8%
03/19 $0.1692 00.86% 75.3%
03/20 $0.1674 01.08% 75.6%
03/21 $0.1704 +01.78% 44.5%
03/24 $0.1692 00.71% 27.9%
03/25 $0.1699 +00.42% 57.8%
03/26 $0.1702 +00.16% 30.5%
03/27 $0.1576 07.40% 29.3%
03/28 $0.1672 +06.09% 54.2%
03/31 $0.1673 +00.05% 38.7%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/31: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1015, x 80%: $0.0812
Vol in K, for above days: 786.80.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are omitted from the concentrator.
Week ending values related to the PIPE 85% (80% 1/3/14 forward) share pricing:
01/31: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0973, x 80%: $0.0779 VWAP $0.0997
02/07: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0973, x 80%: $0.0779 VWAP $0.1153
02/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0973, x 80%: $0.0779 VWAP $0.1020
02/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0966, x 80%: $0.0772 VWAP $0.0940
02/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0957, x 80%: $0.0766 VWAP $0.0974
03/07: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764 VWAP $0.1847
03/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0956, x 80%: $0.0765 VWAP $0.1605
03/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0966, x 80%: $0.0773 VWAP $0.1704
03/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1008, x 80%: $0.0807 VWAP $0.1672
Vol, in thousands, for above weeks: 8,900, 6,742, 7,753 (4 day wk), 5,675, 18,935, 7,805, 2,556 and 5,134.
On my ORIGINAL inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
 1day change 
03/20 +10.5% +291.9% +03.8% +04.3% +02.1% +00.4%
03/21 37.2% 102.4% +02.7% +01.2% +01.5% +00.1%
03/24 89.5% +3222.1% +19.2% +01.4% 00.2% 00.7%
03/25 +49.2% +49.6% +09.0% 02.3% +00.1% +00.5%
03/26 536.0% 01.4% 08.6% 00.4% 00.6% +00.0%
03/27 199.4% 159.3% +05.4% 04.4% 01.5% 01.1%
03/28 +05.7% 106.1% 00.6% +05.2% +02.2% +00.5%
03/31 +03.3% 89.7% +26.2% +00.7% +01.4% 00.4%
 5day change 
03/20 022.4% +024.8% 002.4% +015.0% 009.7% +043.0%
03/21 019.7% 035.1% 009.3% 025.9% +000.3% 014.8%
03/24 115.1% 008.8% +001.3% 042.4% 032.5% 097.4%
03/25 049.9% 053.0% 001.9% 037.0% 024.7% +1092.4%
03/26 364.9% +001.8% 047.9% 009.9% 053.3% 028.5%
03/27 071.2% 201.3% +000.7% 198.6% 126.9% 374.2%
03/28 +019.5% +019.2% 011.6% +096.0% +095.0% +038.7%
03/31 +032.7% 149.7% +002.9% 435.3% +3976.2% +047.1%
 5day rate of change 
03/20 067.1% +055.0% 019.7% 034.8% 049.5% 007.0%
03/21 +035.8% 046.2% +019.4% 130.4% +015.7% +001.0%
03/24 297.5% 010.8% 051.7% 510.2% 105.3% 100.7%
03/25 +031.6% 178.0% 057.4% 018.8% 839.9% +708.7%
03/26 167.3% 065.2% 328.5% 026.9% 184.7% 708.1%
03/27 014.7% 148.5% +005.0% 097.5% 022.4% 198.0%
03/28 +019.6% +031.5% +007.2% +039.4% +005.4% +023.0%
03/31 +066.3% 032.9% +000.1% +036.3% +045.1% +083.7%
On my NEWER inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
 1day change 
03/20 +003.51% +017.58% 036.18% 017.16% 010.38% 012.14%
03/21 033.65% 087.60% +014.40% +008.42% +006.06% +004.45%
03/24 090.83% +444.65% 006.22% 015.53% 009.71% 009.72%
03/25 +067.16% +059.89% +017.58% +002.06% +002.58% +003.11%
03/26 502.15% 002.63% 009.76% +001.23% +001.37% +003.03%
03/27 266.35% 249.88% 121.93% 067.45% 039.28% 035.01%
03/28 +023.35% +024.30% +047.26% +035.54% +025.87% +023.34%
03/31 +005.12% 090.73% +022.26% +002.73% +003.33% +001.26%
 5day change 
03/20 012.18% +015.20% 000.42% +003.09% 002.21% +002.88%
03/21 016.18% 010.69% +014.02% +016.76% +023.56% +032.69%
03/24 108.69% 060.61% 068.07% 087.47% 081.46% 095.43%
03/25 121.92% 092.23% 065.69% 221.07% 142.23% 577.25%
03/26 245.20% 001.60% 136.96% 007.64% 055.47% +015.70%
03/27 082.77% 1628.32% 594.76% 284.09% 298.18% 222.30%
03/28 +027.43% +049.40% +082.76% +071.16% +075.07% +077.17%
03/31 +036.12% 125.12% +175.10% +078.90% +125.24% +132.15%
 5day rate of change 
03/20 +031.17% +080.85% +068.39% +087.37% +080.16% +092.04%
03/21 +064.76% +040.86% +050.37% +046.79% +041.58% +041.21%
03/24 034.77% 028.08% 034.18% 036.71% 035.75% 036.32%
03/25 071.95% 076.39% 071.35% 073.67% 072.26% 069.97%
03/26 327.01% 229.00% 204.41% 215.15% 201.92% 179.29%
03/27 019.18% 058.08% 038.23% 055.49% 042.88% 052.62%
03/28 +021.88% +020.46% +017.57% +023.74% +017.69% +019.90%
03/31 +074.54% +030.81% +075.37% +085.98% +087.01% +100.44%
Rolling 5day ORIGINAL inflection point calculation aggregate change:
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
03/20 5 Day +1874.72 +2932.88 +2991.31 +2333.48 +3811.22 +1150.29
03/21 5 Day +1506.33 +1903.41 +2713.69 +1729.20 +3822.32 +0979.49
03/24 5 Day 0227.69 +1735.92 +2748.43 +0996.53 +2580.18 +0025.54
03/25 5 Day 0341.24 +0815.44 +2695.92 +0627.80 +1944.10 +0304.50
03/26 5 Day 1586.53 +0830.35 +1405.81 +0565.40 +0907.21 +0217.74
03/27 5 Day 2716.12 0841.40 +1415.74 0557.63 0243.81 0597.11
03/28 5 Day 2186.57 0680.24 +1251.77 0022.20 0012.21 0365.95
03/31 5 Day 1470.71 1698.39 +1287.94 0118.86 +0473.25 0193.71
Average change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
03/20 +163.31 +490.45 +590.82 +104.62 +405.84 +418.30
03/21 +221.85 +264.07 +705.15 031.85 +469.76 +422.45
03/24 438.26 +235.58 +340.64 194.32 024.77 003.17
03/25 299.58 183.85 +145.24 230.76 232.81 +019.29
03/26 800.68 303.77 331.83 292.79 662.85 117.28
03/27 918.17 754.86 315.12 578.22 811.01 349.48
03/28 738.58 516.73 292.38 350.28 766.91 269.09
03/31 248.60 686.86 292.10 223.08 421.39 043.85
Rolling 5day NEWER inflection point calculation aggregate change:
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
03/20 5 Day +0496.17 +0714.64 +0911.21 +1061.75 +1856.00 +2531.08
03/21 5 Day +0415.88 +0638.22 +1038.94 +1239.72 +2293.27 +3358.47
03/24 5 Day 0036.16 +0251.37 +0331.76 +0155.30 +0425.19 +0153.46
03/25 5 Day 0080.24 +0019.53 +0113.82 0188.02 0179.55 0732.39
03/26 5 Day 0276.98 +0019.21 0042.06 0202.40 0279.15 0617.44
03/27 5 Day 0509.31 0241.08 0441.54 0906.61 1334.56 2324.42
03/28 5 Day 0369.63 0121.99 0076.11 0261.43 0332.74 0530.72
03/31 5 Day 0236.12 0274.63 +0057.16 0055.17 +0083.99 +0170.65
Average change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
03/20 +0246.08 +0389.62 +0646.45 +0874.89 +1693.03 +2875.02
03/21 +0405.45 +0548.82 +0972.04 +1284.28 +2396.95 +4059.91
03/24 +0264.47 +0394.74 +0639.85 +0812.87 +1540.08 +2585.21
03/25 +0074.18 +0093.20 +0183.34 +0214.04 +0427.21 +0776.34
03/26 0168.40 0120.23 0191.43 0246.46 0435.42 0615.55
03/27 0201.10 0191.14 0270.55 0393.67 0638.11 0971.10
03/28 0157.10 0152.04 0223.01 0300.23 0525.20 0777.84
03/31 0039.99 0105.20 0054.92 0042.09 0068.24 +0003.44
Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
============ 2013 ===============
Mon. 12/30: 10.02% 6.65%
============ 2014 ===============
Tue. 01/21 110.53% 58.75% 49.16% 54.83%
Mon. 01/27 70.16% 9.32% 52.17% 23.63% 101.56%
Mon. 02/03 111.49% 65.83% 50.74% 39.44% 45.93%
Mon. 02/10 26.53% 34.19% 60.92% 50.15% 27.28%
Tue. 02/18 44.83% 53.95% 25.30% 46.39%
Mon. 02/24 23.26% 77.84% 112.52% 61.42% 60.59%
Mon. 03/03 37.80% 39.30% 84.26% 47.35% 65.02%
Mon. 03/10 49.87% 81.60% 16.78% 69.33% 161.53%
Mon. 03/17 119.24% 54.59% 197.55% 335.39% 44.23%
Mon. 03/24 36.88% 97.94% 50.67% 44.05% 111.73%
Mon. 03/28 54.06%
============ 2013 ===============
Nov Avg: 28.42%, min: 05.99%, max: 050.60%
Dec Avg: 29.22%, min: 02.10%, max: 063.82%
============ 2014 ===============
Jan Avg: 54.66%, min: 09.32%, max: 130.29%
Feb Avg: 50.44%, min: 00.28%, max: 112.52%
Mar Avg: 85.68%, min: 16.78%, max: 335.39%
0331 Vol 0716801, Sht 0258136 36.01% LHC 0.1570 0.1793 0.1698 b:s 1:1.57[130]
0328 Vol 0614691, Sht 0314460 51.16% LHC 0.1567 0.1790 0.1622 b:s 1.18:1
0327 Vol 1980546, Sht 0616650 31.14% LHC 0.1500 0.1660 0.1582 b:s 1:2.41
0326 Vol 1410109, Sht 0496517 35.21% LHC 0.1640 0.1750 0.1661 b:s 1:2.28
0325 Vol 0630326, Sht 0260578 41.34% LHC 0.1630 0.1780 0.1699 b:s 1.37:1
0324 Vol 0493200, Sht 0132511 26.87% LHC 0.1620 0.1800 0.1700 b:s 1:2.59
0321 Vol 0338960, Sht 0082000 24.19% LHC 0.1650 0.1750 0.1703 b:s 1:1.23
0320 Vol 0360913, Sht 0255063 70.67% LHC 0.1621 0.1700 0.1650 b:s 3.59:1
0319 Vol 0152034, Sht 0074149 48.77% LHC 0.1550 0.1749 0.1680 b:s 3.05:1
0318 Vol 0492742, Sht 0117468 23.84% LHC 0.1550 0.1765 0.1680 b:s 1.28:1
0317 Vol 1210989, Sht 0454724 37.55% LHC 0.1630 0.1800 0.1675 b:s 2.18:1
0314 Vol 0775124, Sht 0296250 38.22% LHC 0.1530 0.1699 0.1630 b:s 3.23:1
0313 Vol 0238513, Sht 0053733 22.53% LHC 0.1532 0.1629 0.1598 b:s 2.08:1
0312 Vol 1203494, Sht 0146037 12.13% LHC 0.1500 0.1750 0.1600 b:s 1:2.65
0311 Vol 0950331, Sht 0420954 44.30% LHC 0.1726 0.1870 0.1752 b:s 1:1.22
0310 Vol 4605367, Sht 1306110 28.36% LHC 0.1602 0.2310 0.1800 b:s 1:1.31[129]
0307 Vol 5359392, Sht 1573661 29.36% LHC 0.1500 0.2199 0.2000 b:s 1.20:1
0306 Vol 5867182, Sht 1529792 26.07% LHC 0.1330 0.1510 0.1500 b:s 1:1.22[128]
0305 Vol 4198959, Sht 1718581 40.93% LHC 0.0999 0.1335 0.1335 b:s 1.05:1
0304 Vol 2651851, Sht 0722847 27.26% LHC 0.0950 0.1010 0.0999 b:s 1:2.33
0303 Vol 0772417, Sht 0166018 21.49% LHC 0.0952 0.1050 0.0962 b:s 1:1.36
0228 Vol 0687500, Sht 0239630 34.86% LHC 0.0952 0.1039 0.0975 b:s 1:1.35
0227 Vol 0817087, Sht 0282150 34.53% LHC 0.0950 0.1000 0.0952 b:s 1:1.28[127]
0226 Vol 0535651, Sht 0247426 46.19% LHC 0.0950 0.0970 0.0970 b:s 1.44:1
0225 Vol 0632768, Sht 0256707 40.57% LHC 0.0903 0.0974 0.0970 b:s 1:1.09[126]
0224 Vol 3002135, Sht 0489500 16.31% LHC 0.0900 0.1039 0.0910 b:s 1:2.34
0221 Vol 3243908, Sht 0719700 22.19% LHC 0.0910 0.0970 0.0915 b:s 1.05:1[125]
0220 Vol 1739714, Sht 0350800 20.16% LHC 0.0910 0.0994 0.0926 b:s 1:4.04[124]
0219 Vol 1885454, Sht 0563000 29.86% LHC 0.0950 0.1030 0.0964 b:s 1:1.27
0218 Vol 0872226, Sht 0260308 29.84% LHC 0.0975 0.1010 0.1000 b:s 1:1.95[123]
0214 Vol 2006349, Sht 0429309 21.40% LHC 0.1000 0.1064 0.1000 b:s 1:4.42[122]
0213 Vol 1880123, Sht 0513540 27.31% LHC 0.1040 0.1139 0.1042 b:s 1:1.21
0212 Vol 0252101, Sht 0082000 32.53% LHC 0.1031 0.1067 0.1045 b:s 1:1.15
0211 Vol 1805486, Sht 0452259 25.05% LHC 0.1021 0.1185 0.1060 b:s 1:3.02
0210 Vol 0798299, Sht 0155395 19.47% LHC 0.1025 0.1200 0.1140 b:s 1:2.76
0207 Vol 1974244, Sht 0570127 28.88% LHC 0.1101 0.1210 0.1113 b:s 1:1.71
0206 Vol 0665900, Sht 0132100 19.84% LHC 0.1085 0.1200 0.1131 b:s 1:1.04[121]
0205 Vol 0967658, Sht 0301064 31.11% LHC 0.1102 0.1220 0.1179 b:s 1:1.52[120]
0204 Vol 2174203, Sht 0848197 39.01% LHC 0.1026 0.1199 0.1199 b:s 1:1.46
0203 Vol 2989364, Sht 1411565 47.22% LHC 0.1001 0.1190 0.1020 b:s 1.32:1[119]
[119] There was a premarket trade of 5K that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 2,989,364 to 2,994,364 and would lower the short percentage from 47.22% to 47.14%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 1,411,565 to 1,415,565 and the short percentage would be 47.31%.
[120] There was a premarket trade of 15K that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 967,658 to 982658 and would lower the short percentage from 31.11% to 30.64%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 301,064 to 316,064 and the short percentage would be 33.35%.
[121] There were 5 AH trades of totaling 109K that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 665,900 to 774,900 and would lower the short percentage from 19.84% to 17.05%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 132,100 to 241,100 and the short percentage would be 32.59%. These were marked "seq", meaning they were traded during normal market hours but were not reported in a timely manner. With our buy percentage above 40% today I suspect a goodly portion of this 109K were short sales.
[122] FINRA data was missing 50 shares of trade volume for AXPW due to small odd lot trades. The initially reported FINRA volume was 2,006,299 and short volume was 429,269. When correct volume of 2,006,349 appeared, shorts increased by 40 shares, to 429,309. The change was small enough that no effect, to two decimal places, was seen, leaving the short percentage at 21.40%.
[123] There was 1 AH trade of 7K that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 872,226 to 879,226 and would lower the short percentage from 29.84% to 29.61%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 260,308 to 267,308 and the short percentage would be 30.40%.
[124] There was 1 AH trade of 7K that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,739,714 to 1,744,714 and would lower the short percentage from 20.16% to 20.11%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 350,800 to 355,800 and the short percentage would be 20.39%.
[125] FINRA data was missing 100 shares of trade volume for AXPW due to small odd lot trades. The initially reported FINRA volume was 3,243,808 and short volume was 719,671. When correct volume of 3,243,908 appeared, shorts increased by 29 shares, to 719,700. The change was small enough that no effect, to two decimal places, was seen, leaving the short percentage at 22.19%.
[126] FINRA data was missing 22 shares of trade volume for AXPW due to small odd lot trades. The initially reported FINRA volume was 632,746 and short volume was 256,707. When corrected volume of 632,768 appeared, shorts did not increase.
[127] FINRA data was missing 50 shares of trade volume for AXPW due to one small odd lot trade. The initially reported FINRA volume was 817,087 and short volume was 282,150. When corrected volume of 817,137 appears, shorts may increase, in which case I'll correct what's needed.
[128] There were 5 premarket trades for 85K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 5,867,182 to 5,952,182 and would lower the short percentage from 26.07% to 25.70%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 1,529,792 to 1,614,792 and the short percentage would be 27.13%.
[129] There were 4 premarket trades for 32.5K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 4,605,367 to 4,637,867 and would lower the short percentage from 28.36% to 28.16%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 1,306,110 to 1,338,610 and the short percentage would be 28.86%.
[130] There was 1 afterhours trade for 70K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 716,801 to 786,801 and would lower the short percentage from 36.01% to 32.81%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 258,136 to 328,136 and the short percentage would be 41.71%.
03/28/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 68, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 51000, Vol: 614691, AvTrSz: 9040
Min. Pr: 0.1567, Max Pr: 0.1790, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1672
# Buys, Shares: 36 333237, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1704
# Sells, Shares: 32 281454, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1633
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.18:1 (54.21% "buys"), DlyShts 314460 (51.16%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 111.73%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0807 vs. $0.0800, $0.0792, $0.0784, $0.0777, $0.0773, $0.0769, $0.0767, $0.0766 and $0.0766 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1337 vs. $0.1261, $0.1361, $0.1359, $0.1353, $0.1363, $0.1339, $0.1354, $0.1376 and $0.1361 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 4.47%, 7.83%, 6.09%, 68.96% and 49.01% respectively. Price spread today was 14.23% vs. 10.67%, 6.71%, 9.20%, 11.11%, 6.06%, 4.87%, 12.84%, 10.43% and 11.05% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 11 of the 68 trades, 16.18%. These 277,000 shares were 45.06% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1695. 6 of these trades, 54.55%, were buys of 182,000 shares, 65.70% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1728. 5 of the larger trades, 45.45%, were sells of 95,000 shares, 34.30% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1634.
The other 57 trades, 83.82% of the day's trades, traded 337,691 shares, 54.94% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1652. 30 trades, 52.63%, were buys and accounted for 151,237 shares, 44.79% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1677. 27 trades, 47.37%, were sells and accounted for 186,454 shares, 55.21% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1633
Yesterday I said it doesn't look like consolidation now, with the possible exception of consolidating at a lower range. I noted that our close and VWAP were just below the rising support of the banner and it should now become resistance.
Don't laugh, but price range moved right back into where it looks like consolidation again. The vast majority of the trading occurred between the resistance and support of the banner, with small excursions on both ends, and we closed a smidgen above the support. Of course, as I had previously mentioned, this banner was drawn with very shortterm lines. Although the usual origin and two touches were in place for the rising support, they were too closely spaced to be considered good indicators. The resistance was good as of a couple days back.
The rising support origin is at $0.15, the low of 3/12. Yesterday, 3/27, price penetrated that rising support and dropped as low as $0.15 before coming back and closing at $0.1582. Based on that, I'm now adjusting that support to have its first touch at $0.15. This makes our pattern a descending triangle now, rather than a banner. A further adjustment may be needed for the descending resistance too, but I'll have to wait and see. There's a good possibility that it could be a horizontal line at the $0.18 price level, meaning we would be in a sideways trading channel.
With the quarterly reporting and CC coming Monday and Tuesday, all this may be a complete waste though.
Well, we broke the string of four consecutive days of higher volume on a down day. We got a higher trading range and close on reduced volume. Higher range = good, lower volume = less than good. The volume says the move up doesn't have strength.
The oscillators were barely affected, with four making minuscule gains, two weakening and one flat. Allinall, consolidation again.
My original experimental inflection point calculations, which had all oneday changes but the 25day period weakening yesterday, has the 10 and 25day periods weakening and the others making small improvements. The change over five days flipped from all six periods weakening to all periods improved. The rate of change flipped in exactly the same manner.
The newer version oneday changes, which moved to all periods below zero again yesterday, remains in that condition. All periods were weakening but today they all show a bit of strengthening. The change over five days switched to all periods strengthening from suggesting weakness. The average change over those days matches.
The newer version's chart pattern, which had been suggesting a move lower was coming, is now abandoning that stance and suggesting what in the past has been a sideways, mostly, behavior.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3610:37: 097000 shrs, 15.78% of vol, VWAP $0.1679, 094.8% buys
10:3810:39: 148000 shrs, 24.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1749, 078.4% buys
10:4011:06: 132250 shrs, 21.51% of vol, VWAP $0.1640, 039.5% buys
11:2212:54: 030500 shrs, 04.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1627, 026.2% buys
13:1814:57: 066844 shrs, 10.87% of vol, VWAP $0.1664, 079.1% buys
15:0015:43: 061054 shrs, 09.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1634, 000.2% buys
15:4515:55: 069043 shrs, 11.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1626, 017.4% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1567$0.1567: 005000 shrs, 00.81% of vol, VWAP $0.1567, 000.0% buys
$0.1601$0.1626: 189500 shrs, 30.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1616, 005.3% buys
$0.1630$0.1648: 033500 shrs, 05.45% of vol, VWAP $0.1633, 003.0% buys
$0.1650$0.1650: 065400 shrs, 10.64% of vol, VWAP $0.1650, 058.0% buys
$0.1670$0.1689: 102291 shrs, 16.64% of vol, VWAP $0.1676, 100.0% buys
$0.1693$0.1717: 106000 shrs, 17.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1701, 071.7% buys
$0.1730$0.1790: 113000 shrs, 18.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1762, 093.8% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
03/10 $0.2000 +08.28% 43.2%
03/11 $0.1799 10.04% 44.6%
03/12 $0.1562 13.18% 27.3%
03/13 $0.1606 +02.82% 67.5%
03/14 $0.1605 00.09% 76.3%
03/17 $0.1701 +06.02% 68.5%
03/18 $0.1707 +00.33% 55.8%
03/19 $0.1692 00.86% 75.3%
03/20 $0.1674 01.08% 75.6%
03/21 $0.1704 +01.78% 44.5%
03/24 $0.1692 00.71% 27.9%
03/25 $0.1699 +00.42% 57.8%
03/26 $0.1702 +00.16% 30.5%
03/27 $0.1576 07.40% 29.3%
03/28 $0.1672 +06.09% 54.2%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/24: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0972, x 80%: $0.0777
03/25: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0980, x 80%: $0.0784
03/26: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0990, x 80%: $0.0792
03/27: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0999, x 80%: $0.0800
03/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1008, x 80%: $0.0807
Vol in K, for above days: 498.29 630.33 1410.11 1980.55 614.69.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
03/27/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 155, MinTrSz: 6, MaxTrSz: 80000, Vol: 1980546, AvTrSz: 12778
Min. Pr: 0.1500, Max Pr: 0.1660, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1576
# Buys, Shares: 51 580539, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1587
# Sells, Shares: 104 1400007, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1571
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.41 (29.31% "buys"), DlyShts 616650 (31.14%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 44.05%
Keep in mind everything was today influenced, apparently, by the announced resignation of our newlyminted (only about 56 months ago) CFO.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0800 vs. $0.0792, $0.0784, $0.0777, $0.0773, $0.0769, $0.0767, $0.0766, $0.0766 and $0.0765 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1261 vs. $0.1361, $0.1359, $0.1353, $0.1363, $0.1339, $0.1354, $0.1376, $0.1361 and $0.1284 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 8.54%, 5.14%, 7.40%, 40.45% and 24.19% respectively. Price spread today was 10.67% vs. 6.71%, 9.20%, 11.11%, 6.06%, 4.87%, 12.84%, 10.43%, 11.05% and 6.33% on prior days.
There was a single trade, affecting the closing price, of 1K at $0.1582 (the only trade at that price) at 15:57, the last trade of the day. The trades just prior were in the $0.1567$0.157 range. With out this trade our close would've been $0.1567.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 39 of the 155 trades, 25.16%. These 1,200,400 shares were 60.61% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1590. 10 of these trades, 25.64%, were buys of 323,000 shares, 26.91% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1610. 29 of the larger trades, 74.36%, were sells of 877,400 shares, 73.09% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1583.
I think it's worth noting yesterday's larger blocks stuff since that was quite similar, especially on the percentage: 20.00% of trades, shares 58.86% of day's volume, VWAP $0.1705; 30.77% buys, 24.47% of the larger trades volume, VWAP of $0.1720; 69.23% sells, 75.53% of the larger trades volume, VWAP of $0.1701.
Doesn't look like consolidation now, with the possible exception of consolidating at a lower range. It's worth noting that our close and VWAP were just below the rising support (should now become resistance) of the banner. The oscillators essentially continued their prior behavior: Bollinger band adjustment continued with the upper limit continuing to descend and the lower limit continued parabolically upward.
Of the shortterm pennant trend lines, I said this is normally the start of the endgame for shortterm consolidation. The CFO resignation may have shortened the game  we'll never know.
This was the fourth consecutive day of higher volume on a down day, with yesterday's volume more than doubling the prior day and today over 40% higher than yesterday's volume with today's VWAP down 7.4%.
My original experimental inflection point calculations, which had all periods weakening yesterday, have all but the 25day period weakening today. The change over five days moved from five of the periods weakening for the fourth consecutive day to those five weakening for the fifth day and the holdout joined in, making all six periods weakening. The rate of change has all periods weaker.
The newer version oneday changes, which had only the 10day period remaining above zero, now has all periods below zero again. All periods are weakening and some of the moves are relatively large. The change over five days back to all periods weakening after having moved to four weakening. Several of the changes were relatively large and suggestive of a trend change now. The average change over those days again shows a reduction in strengthening, again for all periods.
The newer version's chart pattern, which had been suggesting a move lower was coming, is now more emphatic about that move.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:30: 050000 shrs, 02.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1656, 000.0% buys
09:3009:32: 211089 shrs, 10.66% of vol, VWAP $0.1660, 000.0% buys
09:3309:47: 322900 shrs, 16.30% of vol, VWAP $0.1597, 037.6% buys
09:5009:52: 071500 shrs, 03.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1555, 000.0% buys
09:5309:56: 072500 shrs, 03.66% of vol, VWAP $0.1515, 003.4% buys
09:5910:11: 108589 shrs, 05.48% of vol, VWAP $0.1545, 007.9% buys
10:1210:19: 064194 shrs, 03.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1517, 000.0% buys
10:2010:32: 174156 shrs, 08.79% of vol, VWAP $0.1504, 012.9% buys
10:3310:55: 085500 shrs, 04.32% of vol, VWAP $0.1526, 051.5% buys
11:1012:19: 089994 shrs, 04.54% of vol, VWAP $0.1547, 077.8% buys
12:2112:25: 225000 shrs, 11.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1608, 097.8% buys
12:4114:27: 200624 shrs, 10.13% of vol, VWAP $0.1558, 017.7% buys
14:3115:57: 304500 shrs, 15.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1576, 018.4% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1500$0.1512: 216700 shrs, 10.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1503, 005.0% buys
$0.1520$0.1537: 204650 shrs, 10.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1524, 028.4% buys
$0.1540$0.1559: 363493 shrs, 18.35% of vol, VWAP $0.1548, 023.8% buys
$0.1560$0.1579: 358714 shrs, 18.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1565, 009.1% buys
$0.1580$0.1599: 146500 shrs, 07.40% of vol, VWAP $0.1592, 078.2% buys
$0.1600$0.1620: 342900 shrs, 17.31% of vol, VWAP $0.1607, 057.3% buys
$0.1630$0.1656: 151589 shrs, 07.65% of vol, VWAP $0.1645, 053.8% buys
$0.1660$0.1660: 196000 shrs, 09.90% of vol, VWAP $0.1660, 000.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
03/07 $0.1847 +27.73% 54.2%
03/10 $0.2000 +08.28% 43.2%
03/11 $0.1799 10.04% 44.6%
03/12 $0.1562 13.18% 27.3%
03/13 $0.1606 +02.82% 67.5%
03/14 $0.1605 00.09% 76.3%
03/17 $0.1701 +06.02% 68.5%
03/18 $0.1707 +00.33% 55.8%
03/19 $0.1692 00.86% 75.3%
03/20 $0.1674 01.08% 75.6%
03/21 $0.1704 +01.78% 44.5%
03/24 $0.1692 00.71% 27.9%
03/25 $0.1699 +00.42% 57.8%
03/26 $0.1702 +00.16% 30.5%
03/27 $0.1576 07.40% 29/3%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/24: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0972, x 80%: $0.0777
03/25: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0980, x 80%: $0.0784
03/26: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0990, x 80%: $0.0792
03/27: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0999, x 80%: $0.0800
Vol in K, for above days: 498.29 630.33 1410.11 1980.55.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
03/26/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 130, MinTrSz: 9, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 1410109, AvTrSz: 10847
Min. Pr: 0.1640, Max Pr: 0.1750, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1702
# Buys, Shares: 50 430192, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1713
# Sells, Shares: 80 979917, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1697
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.28 (30.51% "buys"), DlyShts 496517 (35.21%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 50.67%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0792 vs. $0.0784, $0.0777, $0.0773, $0.0769, $0.0767, $0.0766, $0.0766, $0.0765 and $0.0764 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1361 vs. $0.1359, $0.1353, $0.1363, $0.1339, $0.1354, $0.1376, $0.1361, $0.1284 and $0.1285 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.61%, 1.69%, 0.16%, 123.71% and 90.54% respectively. Price spread today was 6.71% vs. 9.20%, 11.11%, 6.06%, 4.87%, 12.84%, 10.43%, 11.05%, 6.33% and 16.67% on prior days.
A couple exceptional trades affected a few of these metrics today. First, at the open a 456 share trade at $0.1640 set the low of the day. The next lowest price seen was, again, $0.1650 and occurred at quantity. At 13:35 a trade of 645 shares at $0.1750 established the high of the day. The next highest price was, again, $0.1749 for 3K shares at 09:43, followed by $0.1740 which had some quantity. Discarding these three trades, our low and high would be $0.1650 (again!) and $0.1740 and the movements would be 1.23% and 2.25% respectively instead of the 0.61% and 1.69% we got. The spread would move to 5.45% in stead of the 6.71% we got.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 26 of the 130 trades, 20.00%. These 829,995 shares were 58.86% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1705. 8 of these trades, 30.77%, were buys of 203,095 shares, 24.47% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1720. 18 of the larger trades, 69.23%, were sells of 626,900 shares, 75.53% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1701.
Everything continues to look like consolidation for now. It's gone long enough that the Bollinger band adjustment started yesterday with the upper limit beginning to flatten and the lower limit started going parabolically upward. Today the upper limit has begun it's downward trek while the lower limit continues its parabolic upward move.
The shortterm trends lines, forming a pennant, appear to be serving their purpose. Today's low and high compressed within the pennant and the high pulled away from the descending resistance. The low was already above it's support. This is normally the start of the end game for shortterm consolidation, so my week or two (maximum) before a break one way or the other would seem to be reasonable.
The oscillators continue on track for consolidation, as has been the trend, but with additional indicators joining the momentum indicator. Momentum recovered a wee bit to ~.923 after being down from ~1.76 on 3/17 to ~1.13 and 0.8495 yesterday. Today the full stochastic and MFI joined the parade lower, as did ADX related. This would be consistent, I think, with a price range move down towards our rising support.
As with yesterday's concern that volume was higher on a down day, today repeated that. Volume more than doubled yesterday's as our high and close were lower and VWAP moved up only 0.16%.
My original experimental inflection point calculations have all periods weakening today. The change over five days continues with five of the periods weakening for the fourth consecutive day. The rate of change switched from four weakening to all periods weakening.
The newer version oneday changes, which had six consecutive days of 5 and 10day periods above zero, now has only the 10day period above zero. The three shortest periods show increasing weakness while the three longer periods showing reducing weakness, but the improvements are very small. Today the change over five days moved from all periods weakening to four weakening. All small changes and not suggestive yet of a trend change, although I do note the fiveday period had the largest negative move. The average change over those days again shows a reduction in strengthening, but now for all periods, as opposed to yesterday.
I still think the newer version's chart pattern suggested a move lower is coming, but just to the rising support line ... for now.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. The period end 14:59 was affected by a single 100K trade at $0.1749 and the 15:59 ending period was affected by the closing trade of 50K at $0.1699.
09:3009:44: 062456 shrs, 04.43% of vol, VWAP $0.1696, 004.8% buys
09:4610:00: 093185 shrs, 06.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1708, 000.5% buys
10:0310:29: 269172 shrs, 19.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1702, 040.7% buys
10:3213:01: 125100 shrs, 08.87% of vol, VWAP $0.1706, 027.7% buys
13:1613:34: 110928 shrs, 07.87% of vol, VWAP $0.1715, 051.3% buys
13:3513:44: 150852 shrs, 10.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1782, 053.2% buys
13:5714:17: 238007 shrs, 16.88% of vol, VWAP $0.1700, 001.7% buys
14:1914:32: 097900 shrs, 06.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1656, 027.1% buys
14:4014:42: 050500 shrs, 03.58% of vol, VWAP $0.1719, 009.9% buys
14:4914:51: 104500 shrs, 07.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1715, 086.1% buys
14:5215:52: 107509 shrs, 07.62% of vol, VWAP $0.1675, 018.6% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range. The range ending at $0.1699 was affected by the closing trade of 50K at that price. The range ending at $0.1749 was affected by a single 100K trade at that price.
$0.1640$0.1666: 166365 shrs, 11.80% of vol, VWAP $0.1655, 009.0% buys
$0.1680$0.1699: 112000 shrs, 07.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1707, 041.5% buys
$0.1700$0.1700: 396407 shrs, 28.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1700, 001.0% buys
$0.1701$0.1705: 361472 shrs, 25.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1704, 037.2% buys
$0.1710$0.1719: 156100 shrs, 11.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1715, 055.8% buys
$0.1720$0.1739: 091285 shrs, 06.47% of vol, VWAP $0.1727, 084.7% buys
$0.1740$0.1750: 126480 shrs, 08.97% of vol, VWAP $0.1791, 052.1% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
03/06 $0.1446 +30.46% 44.7%
03/07 $0.1847 +27.73% 54.2%
03/10 $0.2000 +08.28% 43.2%
03/11 $0.1799 10.04% 44.6%
03/12 $0.1562 13.18% 27.3%
03/13 $0.1606 +02.82% 67.5%
03/14 $0.1605 00.09% 76.3%
03/17 $0.1701 +06.02% 68.5%
03/18 $0.1707 +00.33% 55.8%
03/19 $0.1692 00.86% 75.3%
03/20 $0.1674 01.08% 75.6%
03/21 $0.1704 +01.78% 44.5%
03/24 $0.1692 00.71% 27.9%
03/25 $0.1699 +00.42% 57.8%
03/28 $0.1702 +00.16% 30.5%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/24: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0972, x 80%: $0.0777
03/25: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0980, x 80%: $0.0784
03/26: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0990, x 80%: $0.0792
Vol in K, for above days: 498.29 630.33 1410.11.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
03/25/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 63, MinTrSz: 250, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 630326, AvTrSz: 10005
Min. Pr: 0.1630, Max Pr: 0.1780, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1699
# Buys, Shares: 32 364278, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1722
# Sells, Shares: 31 266048, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1668
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.37:1 (57.79% "buys"), DlyShts 260578 (41.34%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 97.94%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0784 vs. $0.0777, $0.0773, $0.0769, $0.0767, $0.0766, $0.0766, $0.0765, $0.0764 and $0.0764 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1359 vs. $0.1353, $0.1363, $0.1339, $0.1354, $0.1376, $0.1361, $0.1284, $0.1285 and $0.1250 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.62%, 1.11%, 0.42%, 26.50% and 96.65% respectively. Price spread today was 9.20% vs. 11.11%, 6.06%, 4.87%, 12.84%, 10.43%, 11.05%, 6.33%, 16.67% and 8.34% on prior days.
A couple exceptional trades affected a few of these metrics today. First, at the open a 1K trade at $0.1630 was the only trade at that price and there was another 250 share trade at $0.1632. The next lowest price seen was $0.1650 and occurred at quantity. At 14:42 a trade of 3,326 shares at $0.1780 established the high of the day. The next highest price was $0.1749 for 100K shares. Discarding just the $0.1780 and $0.1630 and $0.1632 trades, our low and high would be $0.1650 and $0.1749 and the movements would be 1.85% and 2.83% respectively. The spread would move to 6.00%.
The 100K trade is exceptional in size, but not an outlier in price because there were other trades in quantity that were near to it in price.
Keep in mind the following are influenced by a single 100K trade at $0.1749 and the closing trade of 50K at $0.1699. Both were "buys". The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 9 of the 63 trades, 14.29%. These 328,826 shares were 52.17% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1710. 5 of these trades, 55.56%, were buys of 218,326 shares, 66.40% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1729. 4 of the larger trades, 44.44%, were sells of 110,500 shares, 33.60% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1673.
I'm concerned that our average buy percentage has been rising but price, specifically VWAP, has not been doing so. If you check my charts you see a nice rise in the average buy percentage for all periods, with the 10 and 25day periods being where we used to see VWAP improving. But our VWAP, after the big bump from $0.09xx to the $0.23 high, has flattened out and you can see on the chart how the 10day VWAP average has rolled over. It will tend to go flat now and the 25day period will not be far behind. This concern is supported by the 10 and 25day averages for average trade size, which have made a big negative move.
Everything continues to look like consolidation for now. It's gone long enough that the Bollinger band is finally starting the adjustment I had been expecting to start within a week or so  the upper limit is beginning to flatten and the lower limit finally started going parabolic. If we remain range bound we'll see the classic "pinch" (more properly a convergence of the limits) start to develop.
The shortterm trends lines, forming a pennant, had an intraday penetration above the descending resistance line and again the move out and above was rejected as we closed below it. With two more days under our belt, I believe the correct action now is to adjust that resistance because it was very shortterm when I first established it and didn't have sufficient touch points to have confidence in what it suggested. I've adjusted it now so that it's origin is at the high of 3/11 with touches at the highs of yesterday and today. Theoretically an origination and two touches qualifies it as a valid resistance. We'll find out in the next day or two.
A sideeffect of this change is the extension of the normal break out period  likely an additional week to two weeks from now. But that's a best "eyeball" guesstimate.
The oscillators continue on track for consolidation, as has been the trend, with most continuing flattoweaker in nature with small moves, but for momentum. Momentum has taken a really big drop, down from ~1.76 on 3/17 to ~1.13 yesterday and 0.8495 today. I said I still expected it to get down to at least neutral, 1.00. To see it drop this low suggests that a leg down will be starting soon. But as I had mentioned, it may be weak and may just go to our pennant's rising resistance, currently about $0.1579 AFAICT.
Yesterday I noted a small concern that volume was higher on a down day (close and VWAP), but this may have been due to the price spread. For that reason I didn't try to read much into it. That changes with today's second consecutive lower close on higher volume. That's negative by itself. Combined with the nasty movement of the momentum indicator, I think it's trying to tell us something.
Of my original experimental inflection point calculations, I had mentioned yesterday the fiveday period continues to weaken while the other periods are mixed, but predominately flat. Today the 5 and 10day periods strengthened again (both still above zero) and three of the other four periods are showing reduced weakening. However, the change over five days continues with five of the periods weakening for the third consecutive day. The rate of change switched from all weakening to four weakening for the second consecutive day.
The newer version oneday changes, with the sixth consecutive day of 5 and 10day periods above zero, has those two periods strengthening and the other four showing reducing weakness. However, the change over five days has all periods weakening for the second consecutive day. The average change over those days shows a reduction in strengthening for all periods for the second day in a row too.
I surmised that the newer version's chart pattern suggested a move lower is coming. Nothing changes that assessment. I also suggested the possibility that this could be nothing more than a move of trading range to the rising support of the pennant I have been mentioning. That's what happened. With the chart pattern mixed right now, I'm suspecting consolidation continues and the next move would be to see our price range touch the rising pennant support on my traditional TA chart. The move this way should start in a day or two if we are to remain in consolidation.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. The period end 14:59 was affected by a single 100K trade at $0.1749 and the 15:59 ending period was affected by the closing trade of 50K at $0.1699.
09:3009:30: 001000 shrs, 00.16% of vol, VWAP $0.1630, 000.0% buys
09:3609:57: 081600 shrs, 12.95% of vol, VWAP $0.1651, 014.2% buys
09:5810:25: 058750 shrs, 09.32% of vol, VWAP $0.1708, 099.6% buys
10:2811:00: 013226 shrs, 02.10% of vol, VWAP $0.1661, 084.9% buys
11:0213:30: 064452 shrs, 10.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1727, 097.7% buys
13:4514:59: 158100 shrs, 25.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1739, 086.0% buys
15:0115:30: 106698 shrs, 16.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1687, 019.2% buys
15:3115:59: 146500 shrs, 23.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1679, 043.3% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range. The range ending at $0.1699 was affected by the closing trade of 50K at that price. The range ending at $0.1749 was affected by a single 100K trade at that price.
$0.1630$0.1632: 001250 shrs, 00.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1630, 000.0% buys
$0.1650$0.1664: 210300 shrs, 33.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1657, 010.3% buys
$0.1675$0.1699: 118598 shrs, 18.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1695, 070.0% buys
$0.1700$0.1749: 296852 shrs, 47.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1730, 086.4% buys
$0.1780$0.1780: 003326 shrs, 00.53% of vol, VWAP $0.1780, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
03/05 $0.1108 +13.51% 51.0%
03/06 $0.1446 +30.46% 44.7%
03/07 $0.1847 +27.73% 54.2%
03/10 $0.2000 +08.28% 43.2%
03/11 $0.1799 10.04% 44.6%
03/12 $0.1562 13.18% 27.3%
03/13 $0.1606 +02.82% 67.5%
03/14 $0.1605 00.09% 76.3%
03/17 $0.1701 +06.02% 68.5%
03/18 $0.1707 +00.33% 55.8%
03/19 $0.1692 00.86% 75.3%
03/20 $0.1674 01.08% 75.6%
03/21 $0.1704 +01.78% 44.5%
03/24 $0.1692 00.71% 27.9%
03/25 $0.1699 +00.42% 57.8%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/24: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0972, x 80%: $0.0777
03/25: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0980, x 80%: $0.0784
Vol in K, for above days: 498.29 630.33.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
03/24/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 79, MinTrSz: 90, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol: 498290, AvTrSz: 6307
Min. Pr: 0.1620, Max Pr: 0.1800, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1692
# Buys, Shares: 27 138956, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1724
# Sells, Shares: 52 359334, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1679
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.59 (27.89% "buys"), DlyShts 132511 (26.59%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 36.88%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0777 vs. $0.0773, $0.0769, $0.0767, $0.0766, $0.0766, $0.0765, $0.0764, $0.0764 and $0.0764 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1353 vs. $0.1363, $0.1339, $0.1354, $0.1376, $0.1361, $0.1284, $0.1285, $0.1250 and $0.1439 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 1.82%, 2.86%, 0.71%, 47.01% and 61.60% respectively. Price spread today was 11.11% vs. 6.06%, 4.87%, 12.84%, 10.43%, 11.05%, 6.33%, 16.67%, 8.34% and 44.19% on prior days.
The low, high, close, VWAP, and volume continue looking like shortterm consolidation. Yesterday I noted "... I've added a couple shortterm trends lines which are forming a pennant, with a slight downward bias ... If that holds, I don't expect any move out of the pennant for a few days yet". Today we had intraday penetration above the descending pennant resistance line and the move out and above was rejected as we closed below it.
It should be noted here that the construction is very short term and we may still be forming the extremes of the trading pattern, whatever it might end up being. So the high today may be establishing that upper line as we move forward. It's still too soon to be sure.
Anyway, the wide spread, lower low and higher high on increased volume would suggest that price is trying to make a move. Can't pick a direction, but adding in a lower VWAP, lower buy percentage and higher daily short sales would make me lean towards lower price range.
But this is not to say we take a plunge if that happens. Recall that I also suspected any move might be weak. A move down to the rising pennant support line (if it's valid  remember very early in the formation) would be normal consolidation behavior. Tomorrow (Tuesday 3/25) that line would be around $0.158.
The oscillators continue on track for consolidation. As has been the trend, most continue flattoweaker in nature with small moves, but for momentum continuing to tire, now down from ~1.76 on 3/17 to ~1.13 today. I still expect it will get down to at least neutral, 1.00.
Yesterday I noted volume was slightly lower than the prior day. A small concern is that volume was higher today on a down day (close and VWAP). But this may be just because of the price spread  some folks would certainly take advantage of the intraday higher prices to sell. For this reason I won't try to read much into this volume increase yet.
I had mentioned yesterday the original inflection point calculations' tenday dropped back below zero and the fiveday gave back about a third of its positive reading. The other four periods had very minor improvements, but should be viewed as essentially flat. Today the fiveday period continues to weaken while the other periods are mixed, but predominately flat. The change over five days has five of the periods weakening for the second consecutive day. The rate of change switched from mixed to all weakening.
The newer version oneday changes, with the five and tenday periods still above zero and weakening yesterday while the other periods were still generally showing small improvement, caused me to say that won't last I think. Today all periods are weakening and I wouldn't be surprised to see the fiveday period go negative tomorrow or the next day. The change over five days had only the five and tenday periods weakening while the others show minor strengthening. I assumed the short periods were the leading indicators and today all six periods show weakness. These aren't small moves either  the fiveday dropped from ~+415 to negative. The other periods had moves of equal or much greater magnitude. The rate of change, which was still showing improvement for all periods and of which I said "... but that should change tomorrow unless some substantial movement occurs in the trading behavior", has flipped to all periods weakening.
The newer version's chart pattern continues to show increasing weakness in the patterns. As the old saying goes, "no good can come of this". If these calculations have much voracity, yet to be determined I guess, a move lower is coming. This could be nothing more than a move of trading range to the rising support of the pennant I mentioned above. That's what I think should be the limit if we are still consolidating.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
08:5609:34: 038460 shrs, 07.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1756, 052.2% buys
09:3509:49: 023500 shrs, 04.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1786, 059.5% buys
09:5010:29: 097789 shrs, 19.62% of vol, VWAP $0.1747, 034.1% buys
10:3110:46: 049000 shrs, 09.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1702, 002.0% buys
11:1011:29: 118596 shrs, 23.80% of vol, VWAP $0.1653, 017.3% buys
11:3511:49: 052945 shrs, 10.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1621, 000.0% buys
11:5314:51: 085000 shrs, 17.06% of vol, VWAP $0.1661, 024.1% buys
15:4715:57: 033000 shrs, 06.62% of vol, VWAP $0.1699, 030.3% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1620$0.1624: 052945 shrs, 10.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1621, 000.0% buys
$0.1640$0.1653: 155596 shrs, 31.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1651, 010.0% buys
$0.1660$0.1699: 063000 shrs, 12.64% of vol, VWAP $0.1681, 056.3% buys
$0.1700$0.1745: 084700 shrs, 17.00% of vol, VWAP $0.1709, 005.5% buys
$0.1750$0.1799: 131560 shrs, 26.40% of vol, VWAP $0.1754, 040.4% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
03/04 $0.0977 +00.93% 29.7%
03/05 $0.1108 +13.51% 51.0%
03/06 $0.1446 +30.46% 44.7%
03/07 $0.1847 +27.73% 54.2%
03/10 $0.2000 +08.28% 43.2%
03/11 $0.1799 10.04% 44.6%
03/12 $0.1562 13.18% 27.3%
03/13 $0.1606 +02.82% 67.5%
03/14 $0.1605 00.09% 76.3%
03/17 $0.1701 +06.02% 68.5%
03/18 $0.1707 +00.33% 55.8%
03/19 $0.1692 00.86% 75.3%
03/20 $0.1674 01.08% 75.6%
03/21 $0.1704 +01.78% 44.5%
03/24 $0.1692 00.71% 27.9%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/24: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0972, x 80%: $0.0777
Vol in K, for above days: 498.29.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
03/21/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 58, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 37000, Vol: 338960, AvTrSz: 5844
Min. Pr: 0.1650, Max Pr: 0.1750, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1704
# Buys, Shares: 27 150670, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1717
# Sells, Shares: 30 185390, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1692
# Unkn, Shares: 1 2900, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1730
Buy:Sell 1:1.23 (44.45% "buys"), DlyShts 82000 (24.19%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 44.23%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0773 vs. $0.0769, $0.0767, $0.0766, $0.0766, $0.0765, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764 and $0.0764 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1363 vs. $0.1339, $0.1354, $0.1376, $0.1361, $0.1284, $0.1285, $0.1250, $0.1439 and $0.1600 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 1.79%, 2.94%, 1.78%, 6.08% and 67.85% respectively. Price spread today was 6.06% vs. 4.87%, 12.84%, 10.43%, 11.05%, 6.33%, 16.67%, 8.34%, 44.19% and 46.60% on prior days.
The daily short sales percentage did just what it should as the buy percentage dropped from the 70% range to 44.45% today, within what should be a normal range until bullishness appears. Daily short percentage moved from 70.67% to 24.19%. I'm gaining confidence that the PIPErs are out as John has been predicting and that we are transitioning to trading like the other 18K+ symbols on the OTC as far as the mechanicals go. I think the transition won't complete until we have consistently higher volumes (which elude us for now except for a few occasional exceptional conditions) and some time as a commercial enterprise without constantly raising cash like an R & D enterprise.
The low, high, close, VWAP, and volume continue looking like shortterm consolidation. Along with some conditionals, yesterday I suggested we might see some weakness start to appear, but "I expect slow and/or weak moves, if any". We're still waiting for any movement. We've been here long enough that I've added a couple shortterm trends lines which are forming a pennant, with a slight downward bias. Traditionally we would break out of it around 3/4ths the way along its width. If that holds, I don't expect any move out of the pennant for a few days yet. The bias is very mild so I don't think we can suggest a direction of any move based on that.
The oscillators continue on track for consolidation. Most are flattoweaker in nature and any moves are very small, but for the full stochastic which continues its move to just above neutral, now there at ~56. Momentum is continuing to tire and has gone from ~1.76 on 3/17 to ~1.28 today. I expect it will get down to at least neutral, 1.00.
Yesterday I noted that volume came back a bit with little price movement, so I thought we were on track [for consolidation]. Today continues that with volume slightly lower that yesterday.
After touching on two days' buy percentages, low volume, the 100K trade, ATDF being unusually "sticky" on the bid two consecutive days, I wondered if some accumulation to satisfy an order might have been occurring and surmised that if so we should see things revert to more normal configuration. Today's buy percentage and daily short percentage, along with continued low volume makes me think we got that one right. We look like we are moving back to more normal status, suggested by the buy percentage and daily short sales percentage today.
Given the low volume I don't know how much weight to give to any of my inflection point calculations, but I'll do them anyway.
I had mentioned over the last few days that the upward bias was weakening even though the oneday changes had five and 10day periods of the original version both above zero. The ten0day dropped back below zero and the fiveday gave back about a third of it positive reading. The other four periods had very minor improvements, but should be viewed as essentially flat. The change over five days has five of the periods weakening now. The rate of change is mixed with some strengthening slightly while others weaken.
The newer version has a similar behavior on the oneday changes, although the five and tenday periods are still above zero. But they are weakening and the other periods are still generally showing small improvement that won't last I think. The change over five days has only the five and tenday periods weakening while the others show minor strengthening. I assume the short periods are the leading indicators here. The rate of change is still showing improvement for all periods, but that should change tomorrow unless some substantial movement occurs in the trading behavior.
The newer version's chart pattern on the newer experimental chart shows the five and tenday periods now weakening while the other periods are beginning to flop around a bit. I think this is typical of the strength up being almost totally dissipated and no decisive direction yet detectable.
The average trade size settled in what I think will be the low end of our normal going forward, sans another manic rise in price with no discernible catalyst. A bit above 5K to maybe around 7.5K or so on the high side is what I'm looking for as long as we're in the current price range with middling or low volume, which it's looking like we might be for some time yet.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:33: 003300 shrs, 00.97% of vol, VWAP $0.1667, 000.0% buys
09:4510:50: 006740 shrs, 01.99% of vol, VWAP $0.1748, 100.0% buys
10:5712:01: 084590 shrs, 24.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1665, 036.1% buys
12:1013:48: 074600 shrs, 22.01% of vol, VWAP $0.1714, 073.9% buys
14:2314:53: 093230 shrs, 27.50% of vol, VWAP $0.1724, 040.7% buys
14:5415:39: 076500 shrs, 22.57% of vol, VWAP $0.1709, 026.7% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1650$0.1651: 037590 shrs, 11.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1650, 000.0% buys
$0.1663$0.1695: 068800 shrs, 20.30% of vol, VWAP $0.1676, 038.5% buys
$0.1700$0.1710: 066200 shrs, 19.53% of vol, VWAP $0.1706, 013.7% buys
$0.1720$0.1729: 108500 shrs, 32.01% of vol, VWAP $0.1723, 068.1% buys
$0.1730$0.1735: 051130 shrs, 15.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1731, 067.3% buys
$0.1740$0.1750: 006740 shrs, 01.99% of vol, VWAP $0.1748, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
03/03 $0.0968 00.66% 41.8%
03/04 $0.0977 +00.93% 29.7%
03/05 $0.1108 +13.51% 51.0%
03/06 $0.1446 +30.46% 44.7%
03/07 $0.1847 +27.73% 54.2%
03/10 $0.2000 +08.28% 43.2%
03/11 $0.1799 10.04% 44.6%
03/12 $0.1562 13.18% 27.3%
03/13 $0.1606 +02.82% 67.5%
03/14 $0.1605 00.09% 76.3%
03/17 $0.1701 +06.02% 68.5%
03/18 $0.1707 +00.33% 55.8%
03/19 $0.1692 00.86% 75.3%
03/20 $0.1674 01.08% 75.6%
03/21 $0.1704 +01.78% 44.5%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/17: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0958, x 80%: $0.0766
03/18: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0958, x 80%: $0.0766
03/19: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0959, x 80%: $0.0767
03/20: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0961, x 80%: $0.0769
03/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0966, x 80%: $0.0773
Vol in K, for above days: 1210.99 492.74 152.03 360.91 338.96.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
03/20/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 54, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 360913, AvTrSz: 6684
Min. Pr: 0.1621, Max Pr: 0.1700, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1674
# Buys, Shares: 21 272863, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1680
# Sells, Shares: 30 76050, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1653
# Unkn, Shares: 3 12000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1662
Buy:Sell 3.59:1 (75.60% "buys"), DlyShts 255063 (70.67%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 335.39%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0769 vs. $0.0767, $0.0766, $0.0766, $0.0765, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764 and $0.0764 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1339 vs. $0.1354, $0.1376, $0.1361, $0.1284, $0.1285, $0.1250, $0.1439, $0.1600 and $0.1478 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 4.58%, 2.80%, 1.08%, 137.39% and 243.99% respectively. Price spread today was 4.87% vs. 12.84%, 10.43%, 11.05%, 6.33%, 16.67%, 8.34%, 44.19%, 46.60% and 13.53% on prior days.
There was one exceptional trade 100K shares at $0.1670. It was noted and commented upon in the thread in the concentrator beginning here.
It was near the day's midrange and slightly above the VWAP, $0.1661, of the ~118K traded before it, so there wasn't a substantial effect on the day's VWAP. It did affect the average trade size though, which included four other larger trades of 15.5K, 23.5K, 30K and 33K. Excluding the 100K trade gives an average trade size of 4,832, about 2/3rds of what we actually saw.
The daily short sales percentage continues to work as expected, with a 70.67% when "buy" percentage is high, as it was today at 75.6%. It's especially reliable when volume is low, I think.
With a VWAP down about 1% from yesterday, a higher low, lower high, lower close, and stilllow volume, it's still looking like shortterm consolidation. With volume up a bit from yesterday on a down day though we should be alert to the possibility of a move appearing  lower would be my guess for a bias, based on the traditional TA oscillators and the behavior of my experimental inflection point calculations. But unless volume comes suddenly strong, I expect slow and/or weak moves, if any.
The oscillators continue on track for consolidation too. The low volume continues to inject uncertainty into the behavior though. Anyway, most are flattoweaker in nature and any moves are very small, but for the full stochastic which moved decisively to just above neutral.
Yesterday I said "However, when the volume gets this low it may signal that something's about to break one way or the other. If volume comes back a bit without appreciable price movement I think then we can rely more that consolidation is in process". Volume came back a bit with little price movement, so I think were on track.
However, today is Friday and that's sometimes an odd trading day.
In the nontraditional TA area, as with yesterday's mention that the 75.31% buys was not unusual for very lowvolume days, today's 75.6% isn't unusual either. However it is unusual to have two consecutive days with such a similar percentage when the volume was 237.39% higher. Further, thinking of the 100K trade and thoughts around it, I note that ATDF was best on the bid 10 of 13 peeks that I took today and 20 of 23 yesterday. Even for ATDF, this seems excessive, although I've no empirical evidence that's so.
ATDF was only best on the offer 7 of 14 peeks today and 7 of 15 peeks yesterday.
Combining the above with the 100K trade, the two days' buy percentage, the high short percentage two consecutive days, ... I wonder if some buy orders requiring accumulation by a marketmaker that was providing price support might be dissipated now. If this was the case, we could see some weakness appear. This is all iffy though  I have no estimate of how likely this is.
Given all the above, especially the low volume and buy percentages, I think any recitation of my original and newer inflection point calculations' changes would be meaningless.
I'll just highlight that the newer version's chart pattern on the newer experimental chart has ceased its roll up on all periods and the upward bias continues to abate. It's suggestion that strength may be starting to return continues weakening. The five and tenday periods are essentially flat while the other periods are weakening noticeably.
The average trade size, sans the 100K trade, would be right at the recent nadir of 4.8K last Thursday and just above yesterday's new recent low of 4.344.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:30: 002000 shrs, 00.55% of vol, VWAP $0.1690, 100.0% buys
09:3710:34: 042400 shrs, 11.75% of vol, VWAP $0.1657, 023.6% buys
10:3611:20: 016900 shrs, 04.68% of vol, VWAP $0.1677, 088.8% buys
11:4313:12: 033800 shrs, 09.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1655, 020.1% buys
13:1313:29: 143813 shrs, 39.85% of vol, VWAP $0.1666, 089.7% buys
13:4414:55: 111000 shrs, 30.76% of vol, VWAP $0.1700, 094.6% buys
15:4515:58: 011000 shrs, 03.05% of vol, VWAP $0.1637, 045.5% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1621$0.1626: 010250 shrs, 02.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1624, 000.0% buys
$0.1650$0.1657: 090300 shrs, 25.02% of vol, VWAP $0.1654, 033.8% buys
$0.1660$0.1697: 154863 shrs, 42.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1671, 088.4% buys
$0.1700$0.1700: 105500 shrs, 29.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1700, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
02/28 $0.0974 +00.82% 42.5%
03/03 $0.0968 00.66% 41.8%
03/04 $0.0977 +00.93% 29.7%
03/05 $0.1108 +13.51% 51.0%
03/06 $0.1446 +30.46% 44.7%
03/07 $0.1847 +27.73% 54.2%
03/10 $0.2000 +08.28% 43.2%
03/11 $0.1799 10.04% 44.6%
03/12 $0.1562 13.18% 27.3%
03/13 $0.1606 +02.82% 67.5%
03/14 $0.1605 00.09% 76.3%
03/17 $0.1701 +06.02% 68.5%
03/18 $0.1707 +00.33% 55.8%
03/19 $0.1692 00.86% 75.3%
03/20 $0.1674 01.08% 75.6%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/17: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0958, x 80%: $0.0766
03/18: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0958, x 80%: $0.0766
03/19: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0959, x 80%: $0.0767
03/20: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0961, x 80%: $0.0769
Vol in K, for above days: 1210.99 492.74 152.03 360.91.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
03/19/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 35, MinTrSz: 50, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol: 152034, AvTrSz: 4344
Min. Pr: 0.1550, Max Pr: 0.1749, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1692
# Buys, Shares: 19 114499, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1706
# Sells, Shares: 16 37535, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1650
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 3.05:1 (75.31% "buys"), DlyShts 74149 (48.77%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 197.55%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0767 vs. $0.0766, $0.0766, $0.0765, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764 and $0.0764 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1354 vs. $0.1376, $0.1361, $0.1284, $0.1285, $0.1250, $0.1439, $0.1600, $0.1478 and $0.1157 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, 0.91%, 0.86%, 69.15% and 36.92% respectively. Price spread today was 12.84% vs. 10.43%, 11.05%, 6.33%, 16.67%, 8.34%, 44.19%, 46.60%, 13.53% and 33.63% on prior days.
Although with low volume this may note be worth the effort, I did want to note that there were two exceptional trades: 1 of 1.5K at $0.1550 and 1 of 20K at $0.1749. These two trades set the high and the low for the day. Without these two trades, the low would be $0.1601, up 3.29% instead of flat at 0.00%, the high would be $0.1700, down 3.68% instead of down 0.91%, and the spread would be 6.18% rather than 12.84%.
The daily short sales percentage continues to work as expected with a 48.74% when "buy" percentage is high, as it was today.
With a VWAP of $0.1692, 0.86 from yesterday's %$0.1701 and very low volume, we're back to looking like consolidation. But since we had the lowest volume since 1/10/13's 151.80K, I don't know that we should give much weight to any of today's stuff.
The oscillators are on track for consolidation too. I had thought today should give us a better read on what's really going on, but the extremely low volume spoiled that. The only thing of note in the oscillators is full stochastic moving up a bit while the ADX related weakened. The rest are generally "flattish".
Today's low was flat (but see the note about the two trades of note) and the high was lower than yesterday's. This would just keep the traditional TA perspective of likely consolidation in play. The lower volume would also support this.
However, when the volume gets this low it may signal that something's about to break one way or the other. If volume comes back a bit without appreciable price movement I think then we can rely more that consolidation is in process.
There were only two larger trades (>= 15K) today 15K at $0.1700and 20K at $0.1749. I won't break them down today.
In the nontraditional TA area, the low volume makes much analysis essentially fruitless, IMO. I'll just mention that the 75.31% buys is not unusual for very lowvolume days. For the lowest 30 volumes since I began recording, which have an average of ~65K, the average buy percentage is 48.92%. Keep in mind that these go back as far as February of 2012 and it would take more than the cursory look I gave to determine if there's been a significant change in this behavior in recent action.
I'll skip discussion of my original inflection point calculations, which are very volume sensitive, and the newer version, which is less so but still does have volume sensitivity, because of today's low volume.
The pattern on the experimental chart continues its roll up on all periods and the upward bias continues to abate. It's suggestion that strength may be starting to return is weakening. Only the fiveday, which would be most affected by today's behavior, suggests otherwise.
The average trade size went below the recent the recent nadir of 4.8K last Thursday with a new low of 4.344. Yesterday's "I think the trading size is returning to a more normal range, reducing the upside on price" just got tossed.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:30: 016500 shrs, 10.85% of vol, VWAP $0.1686, 090.9% buys
09:3309:59: 008450 shrs, 05.56% of vol, VWAP $0.1666, 070.4% buys
10:1313:48: 026085 shrs, 17.16% of vol, VWAP $0.1657, 013.6% buys
13:4914:12: 029050 shrs, 19.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1743, 100.0% buys
14:1314:13: 020000 shrs, 13.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1749, 100.0% buys
14:1515:37: 032949 shrs, 21.67% of vol, VWAP $0.1692, 075.7% buys
15:3815:52: 019000 shrs, 12.50% of vol, VWAP $0.1692, 084.2% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1550$0.1550: 001500 shrs, 00.99% of vol, VWAP $0.1550, 000.0% buys
$0.1601$0.1662: 031035 shrs, 20.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1650, 000.0% buys
$0.1680$0.1699: 069550 shrs, 45.75% of vol, VWAP $0.1714, 092.8% buys
$0.1700$0.1700: 029949 shrs, 19.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1700, 100.0% buys
$0.1749$0.1749: 020000 shrs, 13.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1749, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
02/27 $0.0966 +00.39% 43.8%
02/28 $0.0974 +00.82% 42.5%
03/03 $0.0968 00.66% 41.8%
03/04 $0.0977 +00.93% 29.7%
03/05 $0.1108 +13.51% 51.0%
03/06 $0.1446 +30.46% 44.7%
03/07 $0.1847 +27.73% 54.2%
03/10 $0.2000 +08.28% 43.2%
03/11 $0.1799 10.04% 44.6%
03/12 $0.1562 13.18% 27.3%
03/13 $0.1606 +02.82% 67.5%
03/14 $0.1605 00.09% 76.3%
03/17 $0.1701 +06.02% 68.5%
03/18 $0.1707 +00.33% 55.8%
03/19 $0.1692 00.86% 75.3%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/17: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0958, x 80%: $0.0766
03/18: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0958, x 80%: $0.0766
03/19: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0959, x 80%: $0.0767
Vol in K, for above days: 1210.99 492.74 152.03.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
03/18/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 81, MinTrSz: 90, MaxTrSz: 32500, Vol: 492742, AvTrSz: 6083
Min. Pr: 0.1550, Max Pr: 0.1765, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1707
# Buys, Shares: 44 274867, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1725
# Sells, Shares: 34 215175, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1683
# Unkn, Shares: 3 2700, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1749
Buy:Sell 1.28:1 (55.78% "buys"), DlyShts 117468 (23.84%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 54.59%
There was an incongruous set of trades that ran 12:3812:44 today, detailed in comments starting in the concentrator here.
In summary, when trading had been running at an up ~4.48% level, prior immediate trade being $0.1750, 92.9K of trades went at $0.1550$0.1701, VWAP $0.1652, 100% sells. I can only guess that someone put in a market order and the marketmakers (ATDF was best on both sides then) quickly adjusted the range down to take advantage of the order.
Regardless, that put the kibosh on what was shaping up to be a nice gain, fitting with my post yesterday that some appreciation looked possible. C'est la vie!
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0766 vs. $0.0766, $0.0765, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764 and $0.0764 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1376 vs. $0.1361, $0.1284, $0.1285, $0.1250, $0.1439, $0.1600, $0.1478, $0.1157 and $0.0887 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 4.91%, 10.00%, 1.13%, 59.31% and 74.17% respectively. Price spread today was 10.43% vs. 11.05%, 6.33%, 16.67%, 8.34%, 44.19%, 46.60%, 13.53%, 33.63% and 6.32% on prior days.
There were two exceptional trades totaling 11,940 shares at $0.1550, included in the oddball bunch above that affected the low and spread. Without these two trades, the low would be $0.1600, down only 1.84% instead of 4.91% and the spread would be 10.31% rather than 13.87%.
With a VWAP of $0.1701 yesterday, up 6.02%, I said there was a possibility we won't see nearterm consolidation. Today looked like it was on the way up, bypassing consolidation, until that oddball trading from 12:38  12:44 dropped the price range from up 4.48% to be in the red. In spite of that we still eked out a VWAP gain of +0.33% to $0.1707 and still managed to close +0.299%, $0.168 vs. yesterday's $0.1675.
I said yesterday the oscillators had seemed on track for consolidation too but the day's 6%+ VWAP improvement seems to have supported the skipping of consolidation and supported a possible rise in price. Although I won't detail them today  the oddball action may have skewed them  I will note that they were mostly flat today with a couple weakening a very small amount. Tomorrow should give us a better read on what's really going on.
Today's high and low were lower than yesterday's, which from a traditional TA perspective just moves us more strongly back into the possible consolidation scenario. This would also be supported by the lower volume on an up day.
There were only four larger trades (>= 15K) today, ranging from 17.9K to 32.5K. There pricing was in the midrange of today's pricing at $0.17  $0.175 and constituted only about 80.5K, 1/6th of day's volume, so I won't break them down today.
In the nontraditional TA area, today's 55.78% buys were lower than the prior 68.5% and 76.3% buys, which had climbed from 67.51% and 27.3% without any VWAP appreciation. But without that oddball trading from 12:38  12:44, day's volume would be ~399.8K, buys would be 274,867 shares (68.74%), sells would be 122,275 shares (30.58%). Although one could rightly assert that we can't just remove those trades, I think it's useful to model results without them because the price action profile changed significantly at the time of those trades and did not fully recover to the prior profile for the rest of the day.
My original inflection point calculations' one day changes continue with all six periods showing reduced weakening and the 5day period remains above zero. The aggregate change over five days switched from five of six improving to four improving, with the rate of change over those days doing the same. This might have been different if the oddball trading hadn't happened.
The newer version, which considers factors other than just buy:sell and volume, yesterday had oneday changes with all periods improved and the 5day above zero. Today both the five and tenday periods are above zero and the other periods show reducing weakening even with that oddball trading period ruining the days apparent path towards good gains. The aggregate change over five days yesterday had all periods showing reducing weakening and today, and some changes were substantial. A couple of these might go positive if we don't have a big trading exit to the down side in the next few days. The rate of change, which stopped accelerating in the negative direction for all periods yesterday and began showing a reduction in the rate of weakening, continues to show a reduction in the rate of weakening for all periods.
The pattern on the chart continues its roll up on all periods, although the upward bias abated a small amount. It's still suggesting that strength may be starting to return. Look at the test version of the charts.
The average trade size, which I've mentioned the last few days, dropped below the averages, which had been inflated by the recent push up. It's still above the recent nadir of 4.8K last Thursday for three consecutive days. I think the trading size is returning to a more normal range, reducing the upside on price.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:30: 002000 shrs, 00.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1600, 000.0% buys
09:3009:34: 018000 shrs, 03.65% of vol, VWAP $0.1693, 083.3% buys
09:3511:13: 184368 shrs, 37.42% of vol, VWAP $0.1757, 071.3% buys
11:1412:38: 084475 shrs, 17.14% of vol, VWAP $0.1731, 039.1% buys
12:4412:47: 076900 shrs, 15.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1643, 002.6% buys
13:0913:52: 055500 shrs, 11.26% of vol, VWAP $0.1650, 064.0% buys
14:0014:57: 054899 shrs, 11.14% of vol, VWAP $0.1667, 079.2% buys
15:4815:59: 016600 shrs, 03.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1674, 087.3% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1550$0.1550: 011940 shrs, 02.42% of vol, VWAP $0.1550, 000.0% buys
$0.1600$0.1600: 002000 shrs, 00.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1600, 000.0% buys
$0.1603$0.1631: 042400 shrs, 08.60% of vol, VWAP $0.1619, 000.0% buys
$0.1650$0.1666: 071000 shrs, 14.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1655, 049.4% buys
$0.1675$0.1699: 073589 shrs, 14.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1684, 099.7% buys
$0.1700$0.1749: 079870 shrs, 16.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1716, 027.5% buys
$0.1750$0.1752: 120875 shrs, 24.53% of vol, VWAP $0.1750, 044.1% buys
$0.1764$0.1765: 091068 shrs, 18.48% of vol, VWAP $0.1764, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
02/26 $0.0962 +02.80% 58.9%
02/27 $0.0966 +00.39% 43.8%
02/28 $0.0974 +00.82% 42.5%
03/03 $0.0968 00.66% 41.8%
03/04 $0.0977 +00.93% 29.7%
03/05 $0.1108 +13.51% 51.0%
03/06 $0.1446 +30.46% 44.7%
03/07 $0.1847 +27.73% 54.2%
03/10 $0.2000 +08.28% 43.2%
03/11 $0.1799 10.04% 44.6%
03/12 $0.1562 13.18% 27.3%
03/13 $0.1606 +02.82% 67.5%
03/14 $0.1605 00.09% 76.3%
03/17 $0.1701 +06.02% 68.5%
03/18 $0.1707 +00.33% 55.8%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/17: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0958, x 80%: $0.0766
03/18: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0958, x 80%: $0.0766
Vol in K, for above days: 1210.99 492.74.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
03/17/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 105, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 110000, Vol: 1210989, AvTrSz: 11533
Min. Pr: 0.1630, Max Pr: 0.1800, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1701
# Buys, Shares: 65 829624, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1708
# Sells, Shares: 40 381365, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1687
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 2.18:1 (68.51% "buys"), DlyShts 454724 (37.55%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 119.24%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0766 vs. $0.0765, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764 and $0.0764 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1361 vs. $0.1284, $0.1285, $0.1250, $0.1439, $0.1600, $0.1478, $0.1157, $0.0887 and $0.0781 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 6.54%, 5.94%, 6.02%, 56.23% and 53.49% respectively. Price spread today was 10.43% vs. 11.05%, 6.33%, 16.67%, 8.34%, 44.19%, 46.60%, 13.53%, 33.63% and 6.32% on prior days.
There was one exceptionallypriced trade, midday, of $0.1800 for 2.5K shares. Without this trade our high would be $0.1760. If we use that, our high movement was 3.59% instead of the 5.94% we actually saw. The spread would reduce to 7.98% from the 10.43% we got.
With a VWAP of $0.1701, up 6.02%, there's a possibility we won't see nearterm consolidation, of which I said yesterday "However, the 11%+ price spread does suggest it may not do this at all". But yesterday three small trades affected the high, low and spread for the day, and sans these items the activity was more consistent with consolidation. There's other factors that also make me wonder if the consolidation may not occur.
The oscillators seemed on track too as the full stochastic continued down yesterday towards oversold, and is now reading ~22, barely above oversold, down from ~32.5 yesterday. I said yesterday that the spread of 11%+, raised the possibility that we might see some nearterm upward bias develop, but how much was uncertain. Today's 6%+ VWAP improvement seems to have born that out.
Williams %R was also on track for consolidation, to a smaller degree, having moved only from ~52 to ~49.6. It too changed it's slant today, moving again slightly more bullish to ~46 today. Keep in mind it's an inverse oscillator  a lower number is a more bullish indicator. With a second day of more bullish appearing, it adds to the uncertainty as to a consolidation.
Yesterday, the other oscillators hadn't started to respond yet, so we couldn't use them to confirm consolidation will be with us a bit. Today the "early movers" are beginning to suggest movement. RSI improved slightly from ~65 to ~66, ADX moved to 46 from 45 and DI+ moved from 41 to 43. The ADX being above 30, which it has been since 3/7, is supposed to be a good bullish sign. I've not found it to be reliable though.
Momentum improved from 1.68, and 1.64 before that, to ~1.76. This is four consecutive days of improvement there.
MFI remains in the overbought condition it had achieved yesterday.
Accumulation and distribution remains flat.
The MACD continued to rise and its histogram is retreating towards neutral at a reducing rate now. Both are still well above neutral.
The Bollingers, continue essentially unchanged. The lower limit continues a slow crawl higher, as does the upper limit, and the correction I was expecting may not appear for some time if the bullish indicators I'm seeing are being truthful.
Today's $0.1675 close was higher than the $0.163 close 3/14 and above the $0.163 open.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 23 of the 105 trades, 21.90%. These 734,452 shares were 60.65% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1703. 18 of these trades, 78.26%, were buys of 583,850 shares, 79.49% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1709. 5 of the larger trades, 21.74%, were sells of 150,602 shares, 20.51% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1681.
The other 82 trades, 78.10% of day's trades, accounted for 476,537 shares, 39.35% of day's volume, at a VWAP of $0.1698.
In the nontraditional TA area, today's 68.5% buys was lower than yesterday's 76.3% buys, which had climbed from 67.51% and 27.3% without any VWAP appreciation. This left me wondering if we were seeing the start of additional push up or just consolidation. It was still in a price range that would fit consolidation but volume was up too. Today volume and VWAP were both up smartly. This sure makes me think some more appreciation may be on the way.
The daily short sales percentage seems to be now reliably responding to the higher buy percentages. This also suggests that price may not be immediately heading lower.
My original inflection point calculations' one day changes have all six periods showing reduced weakening today and the 5day is above zero. The aggregate change over five days switched from split three improving and three weakening to five of six improving, along with the rate of change over those days having all periods strengthening.
The newer version oneday changes had all six periods weaker. Today all periods are improved and the 5day is above zero. The aggregate change over five days had all six periods weakening. Today all are showing reducing weakening. The rate of change stopped accelerating in the negative direction for all periods today and all periods are showing a reduction in the rate of weakening.
The pattern on the chart resumed its roll up by all periods, which again suggests the strong downward impetus had abated, and may be suggesting that strength may be starting to return. Look at the test version of the charts.
The average trade size, which I've mentioned the last few days, moved above the area I think is in our normal range, based on the averages. This is two consecutive days that we've moved above that nadir of 4.8K last Thursday and the size is larger today than yesterday: 11.5K vs. 10.9K. Combined with a high buy percentage, rising volume, daily short sales behaving normally, ... I think there's some upside available here.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:40: 056400 shrs, 04.66% of vol, VWAP $0.1630, 100.0% buys
09:4309:55: 168500 shrs, 13.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1677, 090.8% buys
10:0110:16: 117600 shrs, 09.71% of vol, VWAP $0.1671, 025.5% buys
10:1910:45: 081102 shrs, 06.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1651, 043.4% buys
10:5811:31: 163500 shrs, 13.50% of vol, VWAP $0.1699, 100.0% buys
11:3212:29: 320538 shrs, 26.47% of vol, VWAP $0.1749, 080.9% buys
12:3313:26: 102500 shrs, 08.46% of vol, VWAP $0.1749, 072.2% buys
13:2814:10: 041050 shrs, 03.39% of vol, VWAP $0.1717, 067.6% buys
14:1415:01: 119699 shrs, 09.88% of vol, VWAP $0.1675, 004.2% buys
15:2215:50: 013500 shrs, 01.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1651, 000.0% buys
15:5415:59: 026600 shrs, 02.42% of vol, VWAP $0.1674, 096.2% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1630$0.1630: 056400 shrs, 04.66% of vol, VWAP $0.1630, 100.0% buys
$0.1650$0.1651: 088102 shrs, 07.28% of vol, VWAP $0.1650, 039.9% buys
$0.1660$0.1669: 030500 shrs, 02.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1664, 042.6% buys
$0.1670$0.1699: 440400 shrs, 36.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1676, 052.8% buys
$0.1700$0.1749: 314787 shrs, 25.99% of vol, VWAP $0.1723, 079.1% buys
$0.1750$0.1760: 278300 shrs, 22.98% of vol, VWAP $0.1750, 086.5% buys
$0.1800$0.1800: 002500 shrs, 00.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1800, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
02/25 $0.0936 +00.93% 47.9%
02/26 $0.0962 +02.80% 58.9%
02/27 $0.0966 +00.39% 43.8%
02/28 $0.0974 +00.82% 42.5%
03/03 $0.0968 00.66% 41.8%
03/04 $0.0977 +00.93% 29.7%
03/05 $0.1108 +13.51% 51.0%
03/06 $0.1446 +30.46% 44.7%
03/07 $0.1847 +27.73% 54.2%
03/10 $0.2000 +08.28% 43.2%
03/11 $0.1799 10.04% 44.6%
03/12 $0.1562 13.18% 27.3%
03/13 $0.1606 +02.82% 67.5%
03/14 $0.1605 00.09% 76.3%
03/17 $0.1701 +06.02% 68.5%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/17: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0958, x 80%: $0.0766
Vol in K, for above days: 1210.99.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
03/14/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 71, MinTrSz: 50, MaxTrSz: 132700, Vol: 775124, AvTrSz: 10917
Min. Pr: 0.1530, Max Pr: 0.1699, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1605
# Buys, Shares: 50 591725, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1607
# Sells, Shares: 21 183399, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1598
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 3.23:1 (76.34% "buys"), DlyShts 296250 (296250), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 161.53%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0765 vs. $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764 and $0.0764 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1284 vs. $0.1285, $0.1250, $0.1439, $0.1600, $0.1478, $0.1157, $0.0887, $0.0781 and $0.0774 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.13%, 4.30%, 0.09%, 224.98% and 451.24% respectively. Price spread today was 11.05% vs. 6.33%, 16.67%, 8.34%, 44.19%, 46.60%, 13.53%, 33.63%, 6.32% and 10.29% on prior days.
There was one exceptionallypriced trade, at the open, of $0.1530 for 1K shares. Without this trade our low would be $0.1580. If we use that, or low movement was 3.13% instead of the negative we actually saw. The spread would reduce to 7.53%. It's similar for our high of $0.1699, but there were two trades a few minutes apart  2.5K and 10K. Without them our high would be $0.165. Applying both to our stuff today would give low and high movements of 3.13% and 1.29% and a spread of 4.43%.
With a VWAP of $0.1605, right in range of my "reversion to the mean" area, I continue to think some nearterm consolidation may be the most likely move. However, the 11%+ price spread does suggest it may not do this at all. But do see the above paragraph where three small trades affected the high, low and spread for the day. These items would be more consistent with consolidation sans those trades.
The oscillators seem on track too as the full stochastic moved to neutral at ~46 yesterday and continued down today towards oversold, reading ~32.5 today. Can't say yet if it will get there because we do have the spread of 11%+, raising the possibility that we might see some nearterm upward bias develop. How much is uncertain though. Williams %R did the same, to a smaller degree, moving from ~52 to ~49.6. As with yesterday, the other oscillators haven't started to respond yet, so we can't use the oscillators yet to confirm consolidation will be with us a bit.
Today's $0.1699 close was at least above the open of $0.153 today, and even the $0.165 is above if we discount the $0.1699. Both values were also above the prior close of $0.1598. This continues my thought yesterday that the start of a down trend was off the table for the moment.
Momentum improved to 1.68 from the prior 1.64. This is three consecutive days of improvement there. MFI finally achieved the overbought condition it had been staining to reach. Accumulation and distribution remains flat.
RSI continues holding fairly steady at 64.98, slightly up from the prior ~64 and ~63.3.
The MACD switched to rising from flat but its histogram continues to retreat towards neutral, as would be expected since we were flat on the signal line until today. Both are still well above neutral.
The Bollingers, continue essentially unchanged. As mentioned, it would take a week or so before we see strong movements towards them correcting. For now, the lower limit continues a slow crawl higher, as does the upper limit.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 15 of the 71 trades, 21.13%. These 490,300 shares were 63.25% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1602. 10 of these trades, 14.08%, were buys of 377,600 shares, 77.01% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1603. 6 of the larger trades, 8.45%, were sells of 147,600 shares, 30.10% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1594.
In the nontraditional TA area, today's 76.3% buys, climbing from 67.51% and 27.3% without any VWAP appreciation (down 1/100th of a penny, although the high range, even without the $0.1699 trades, and close even without the $0.163 trade were a gain using the $0.1650 and $0.1625 close that would have resulted) does leave me wondering if we are seeing the start of additional push up or just consolidation. It's still in a price range that would fit consolidation. Volume was up too, but not enough to ascertain strength. That 700K range is my neutral volume from several months back that I though would allow us to maintain price. The daily short sales percentage finally started to respond to the higher buy percentage. This suggests that price may not be immediately heading lower.
My original inflection point calculations' one day changes have five of the six periods showing reduced weakening today. The aggregate change over five days split three improving and three weakening. The rate of change over those days has all periods weakening though.
The newer version oneday changes had five periods weaken (continuing a trend) yesterday and today all six periods are weaker. The aggregate change over five days had four consecutive days of weakening in all periods through yesterday and today has all six periods weakening and the rate of change continues accelerating in the negative direction for all periods today (yesterday the 5day was not doing so).
The pattern on the chart stopped its roll up by all periods, which suggested the strong downward impetus had abated, and went mixed with three periods in each direction. This may be suggesting that weakness may be starting to return. Look at the test version of the charts.
The average trade size, which I discussed yesterday, recovered into the area I expect is in our normal range, based on the averages. I said yesterday it should have been about at the bottom of where it will go, so it's good to see it recover today.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:30: 001000 shrs, 00.13% of vol, VWAP $0.1530, 000.0% buys
09:3009:33: 037000 shrs, 04.78% of vol, VWAP $0.1602, 086.5% buys
09:5110:25: 054500 shrs, 07.04% of vol, VWAP $0.1643, 048.6% buys
10:2910:40: 106350 shrs, 13.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1600, 040.6% buys
10:4813:03: 253199 shrs, 32.71% of vol, VWAP $0.1592, 078.2% buys
13:0414:19: 183700 shrs, 23.73% of vol, VWAP $0.1601, 083.1% buys
14:2415:37: 139375 shrs, 18.00% of vol, VWAP $0.1621, 099.9% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1530$0.1530: 001000 shrs, 00.13% of vol, VWAP $0.1530, 000.0% buys
$0.1580$0.1599: 304249 shrs, 39.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1593, 081.9% buys
$0.1600$0.1619: 282000 shrs, 36.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1601, 066.6% buys
$0.1620$0.1630: 173375 shrs, 22.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1624, 081.0% buys
$0.1650$0.1699: 014500 shrs, 01.87% of vol, VWAP $0.1692, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
02/24 $0.0927 01.30% 29.9%
02/25 $0.0936 +00.93% 47.9%
02/26 $0.0962 +02.80% 58.9%
02/27 $0.0966 +00.39% 43.8%
02/28 $0.0974 +00.82% 42.5%
03/03 $0.0968 00.66% 41.8%
03/04 $0.0977 +00.93% 29.7%
03/05 $0.1108 +13.51% 51.0%
03/06 $0.1446 +30.46% 44.7%
03/07 $0.1847 +27.73% 54.2%
03/10 $0.2000 +08.28% 43.2%
03/11 $0.1799 10.04% 44.6%
03/12 $0.1562 13.18% 27.3%
03/13 $0.1606 +02.82% 67.5%
03/14 $0.1605 00.09% 76.3%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/10: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
03/11: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
03/12: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
03/13: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
03/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0956, x 80%: $0.0765
Vol in K, for above days: 4,637.87 950.33 1,203.49 238.51 775.12.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
03/13/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 49, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol: 238513, AvTrSz: 4868
Min. Pr: 0.1532, Max Pr: 0.1629, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1606
# Buys, Shares: 30 161013, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1614
# Sells, Shares: 19 77500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1590
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 2.08:1 (67.51% "buys"), DlyShts 53733 (22.53%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 69.33%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0764 vs. $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764 and $0.0766 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1285 vs. $0.1250, $0.1439, $0.1600, $0.1478, $0.1157, $0.0887, $0.0781, $0.0774 and $0.0779 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.13%, 6.91%, 2.82%, 80.18% and 63.21% respectively. Price spread today was 6.33% vs. 16.67%, 8.34%, 44.19%, 46.60%, 13.53%, 33.63%, 6.32%, 10.29% and 9.14% on prior days.
My favorite shortterm target, "reversion to the mean", around $0.16$0.165 or so, has been hit by VWAP, low and close ($0.1598). My expectation (or is it hope?) is that we will stabilize here for a little bit before the next directional move starts to appear. However, if volume remains very low and ATDF remains predominately at the top of both bid and ask (today best on both sides simultaneously 19 out of 26 peeks I took), as has been the case recently, then they will need volume to make some money. The bias then should be lower price to stimulate volume. I expect daily short sales would be (a little bit?) low(er?) during this period even if buy percentage edged up some, as was the case today.
Yesterday's $0.15$0.175 spread put us in the ballpark where we should start to see consolidation "firm up" for a little bit. Today did a little up (the low) and down (the high) movement within yesterday's price range. And it was, as suggested yesterday, with volume slightly volatile, but generally trending to the low side. So we have a good start to what looks like a consolidation beginning.
Part 2, if it's really a consolidation, seems on track too as the full stochastic has gone to essentially neutral at ~46. This will continue to drop for a bit. Williams %R is at ~52, essentially neutral also. The other oscillators haven't started to respond yet, so we can't use the oscillators yet to confirm consolidation will be with us a bit.
Today's $0.1598 close was at least above the open of $0.1532 today, but *again* below the prior close, $0.16. The good part it is now looking more like consolidation than the start of a trend lower, as I thought it looked like yesterday. It's still too soon to conclude which we have, but I'm leaning towards consolidation.
Momentum held steady at 1.64 for the second consecutive day. MFI is still lagging and remains just below overbought. Accumulation and distribution remains flat.
RSI finally is holding fairly steady at ~64 from yesterday's ~63.3.
The MACD continues to go flat and its histogram continues to retreat towards neutral. Both are still well above neutral.
The Bollingers, which stopped diverging Tuesday, has begun the adjustment with the lower limit beginning the trend higher. The upper limit is still climbing at a rate that is higher than the lower limit's rate of ascent though, so it is looking like a week or more might pass before the adjustment starts to become pronounced.
There were only two larger trades (>= 15K) and they were pretty much in the middle of the pack at $0.1620 for 25K and $0.1600 for 17.1K. So they wouldn't affect much of anything.
In the nontraditional TA area, today's 67.51% "buys", up from yesterday's 27.3% without any price appreciation or volume, seems to confirm weakness. The daily short sales percentage being relatively low for this level of buys also suggests weakness in the cards.
My original inflection point calculations had all six periods weakening yesterday and reflect the consolidation (and volatility of the indicators) as only the 200day period weakened today. The others all had improvement. But all are way below zero and the improvements were minuscule. The aggregate change over five days moved from all periods weaker to all but the 10day, which did weaken some more, improving. The rate of change over those days has only the 10 and 25day periods weakening and negative while the other periods are all positive and improving.
The newer version oneday changes switched from having two consecutive days of all periods weakening (which was suggested by four periods switching from stronger to weaker the prior day) to having five continuing to weaken while the 5day period is slightly improved. The aggregate change over five days has four consecutive days of weakening in all periods, although the 5day period has begun to reduce its rate of weakening. The rate of change is accelerating in the negative direction for all but the 5day period.
The pattern on the chart is starting to roll up, suggesting the strong downward impetus has abated. Look at the test version.
The average trade size, which I discussed yesterday, continues to tank. It should be about at the bottom of where it will go now. If it stays down here we should expect lower price range to eventually appear.
N.B. With price range above $0.10 the "present" sizes have dropped back to 2.5K, leading naturally to a smaller average trade size. But the 4.xK size is excessively low and we should be seeing something closer to the averages prior to the PIPE deal, 5.xK7.xK depending on which average and day you chose.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:5109:51: 002000 shrs, 00.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1532, 000.0% buys
09:5611:15: 019700 shrs, 08.26% of vol, VWAP $0.1596, 034.5% buys
11:2211:55: 039133 shrs, 16.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1598, 036.9% buys
12:0614:55: 108200 shrs, 45.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1619, 089.5% buys
15:1315:50: 052480 shrs, 22.00% of vol, VWAP $0.1600, 081.9% buys
15:5115:58: 017000 shrs, 07.13% of vol, VWAP $0.1583, 000.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1532$0.1532: 002000 shrs, 00.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1532, 000.0% buys
$0.1580$0.1599: 056400 shrs, 23.65% of vol, VWAP $0.1588, 018.6% buys
$0.1600$0.1601: 073513 shrs, 30.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1600, 064.5% buys
$0.1610$0.1619: 027467 shrs, 11.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1618, 087.3% buys
$0.1620$0.1629: 079133 shrs, 33.18% of vol, VWAP $0.1623, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
02/21 $0.0940 01.50% 50.1%
02/24 $0.0927 01.30% 29.9%
02/25 $0.0936 +00.93% 47.9%
02/26 $0.0962 +02.80% 58.9%
02/27 $0.0966 +00.39% 43.8%
02/28 $0.0974 +00.82% 42.5%
03/03 $0.0968 00.66% 41.8%
03/04 $0.0977 +00.93% 29.7%
03/05 $0.1108 +13.51% 51.0%
03/06 $0.1446 +30.46% 44.7%
03/07 $0.1847 +27.73% 54.2%
03/10 $0.2000 +08.28% 43.2%
03/11 $0.1799 10.04% 44.6%
03/12 $0.1562 13.18% 27.3%
03/13 $0.1606 +02.82% 67.5%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/10: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
03/11: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
03/12: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
03/13: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
Vol in K, for above days: 4,637.87 950.33 1,203.49 238.51.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
03/12/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 147, MinTrSz: 70, MaxTrSz: 104850, Vol: 1203494, AvTrSz: 8187
Min. Pr: 0.1500, Max Pr: 0.1750, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1562
# Buys, Shares: 56 328428, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1569
# Sells, Shares: 90 870066, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1559
# Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1600
Buy:Sell 1:2.65 (27.29% "buys"), DlyShts 146037 (12.13%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 16.78%
Over the last couple days I said the action reinforced the assessment that the run up was done for the nearterm, I thought we'd see prices start to tail off in the next couple of days, my favorite shortterm target was a "reversion to the mean", in this case around $0.16$0.165 or so, and so far it's moving as expected with a large volume reduction and narrower spread and lower price ranges.
Today's $0.15$0.175 spread puts us in the ballpark where we should start to see consolidation "firm up" for a little bit. A normal part of this process would be a little up and down movement in the price range with volume slightly volatile, but generally trending to the low side. If it's really a consolidation we should also see the traditional TA oscillators trend towards neutral readings. Which way it's going to move out of consolidation is definitely uncertain this early in the process, but sans "big news" a move towards the falling 200day SMA, $0.1344 today, would not surprise me.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0764 vs. $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0766 and $0.0767 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1250 vs. $0.1439, $0.1600, $0.1478, $0.1157, $0.0887, $0.0781, $0.0774, $0.0779 and $0.0773 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 13.09%, 6.42%, 13.18%, 26.64% and 65.31% respectively. Price spread today was 16.67% vs. 8.34%, 44.19%, 46.60%, 13.53%, 33.63%, 6.32%, 10.29%, 9.14% and 5.26% on prior days.
Today's $0.16 close was *again* below both the prior close, $0.1752, and today's open, $0.1726. This is already starting to look like a trend lower, rather than consolidation. But it's really too soon to conclude that's the case.
Full stochastic is barely above neutral now at ~56.3. ADX related continues to weaken. Williams %R continued retreating and is still slightly above neutral at ~51. Momentum dropped more: ~1.86, ~1.84 and 1.64 today. MFI is still lagging and remains overbought, but has now transitioned from rising to slowly falling. Accumulation and distribution remains flat.
RSI finally exited overbought, now at ~63.3 from ~73.4, 76.8 and ~92.84 on prior days.
The MACD and its histogram, both well above neutral, have stopped climbing. The signal line is flattening and, as would be expected, the histogram is now descending.
The Bollingers, which stopped diverging yesterday, haven't yet started the adjustment. In contrast to my expectation for the start of convergence in the next day or two unless price does something totally unexpected, it's looking like it will take a bit longer before that begins. Looking at the price bands leading to the current condition and assuming we spend some time consolidating, a week or more might pass.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 18 of the 147 trades, 12.24%. These 502,526 shares were 41.76% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1571. 4 of these trades, 22.22%, were buys of 80,000 shares, 15.92% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1556. 14 of the larger trades, 77.78%, were sells of 422,526 shares, 84.08% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1574.
The other 129 trades, 87.76% of the day's trades, representing 700,968 shares (58.24% of trade volume), went at a VWAP of $0.1556.
In the nontraditional TA area, today's 27.3% buys confirms yesterday's "... continues to not suggest a strong bullish continuation". With today's volume higher by 26.64% and high, low, close and VWAP all down, I think Monday's early indication of some weakening is being shown accurate.
Daily short percentage, which was higher yesterday, 44.3%, in response to a "good" buy percentage of 44.6%, continued to track "as it should" with a lower 27.3% buys resulting in a 12.13% daily short sales percentage. The knockon effect here should be a lower price range in a day or two ... or maybe "for" a day or two?
My original inflection point calculations continue the roll over from yesterday's oneday changes, with three periods weaker and three improved, giving us all six periods weakening today, as do the aggregate change over five days moving to all periods weaker. With yesterday's five periods improved and the rate of change over those days having all periods improved, indicating a reducing rate of weakening, it just reinforces the volatility in this original version. The rate of change has all periods weakening too.
Unlike the original, the newer version has a consistency and better predictive ability, AFAICT, oneday changes having two consecutive days of all periods weakening (which was suggested by four periods switching from stronger to weaker the prior day). The aggregate change over five days has three consecutive days of weakening in all periods, as does the rate of change. The rate of change is accelerating in the negative direction for all periods.
The pattern on the chart is not looking good right now. Look at the test version.
Something I've not touched upon frequently recently is the average trade size. Take a look at the chart for that and note the spikes starting around 2/10, when prices were trending lower, and then from 3/4 forward, when price started making this run up. The trading size "spike" were relatively small and don't support a *sustained* run up beginning. Sure enough, trade size began receding on 3/6 or 3/7 as price peaked on 3/7 and 3/10, along with a volume peak on 3/6 and 3/7. The average trade size now doesn't support any thought of price improvement for the near term.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:38: 090000 shrs, 07.48% of vol, VWAP $0.1737, 014.4% buys
09:5009:59: 081400 shrs, 06.76% of vol, VWAP $0.1701, 019.1% buys
10:0610:08: 072300 shrs, 06.01% of vol, VWAP $0.1601, 000.0% buys
10:0910:13: 173840 shrs, 14.44% of vol, VWAP $0.1510, 000.0% buys
10:1510:51: 166110 shrs, 13.80% of vol, VWAP $0.1553, 019.2% buys
11:0012:04: 197516 shrs, 16.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1523, 051.8% buys
12:0913:34: 242878 shrs, 20.18% of vol, VWAP $0.1509, 019.1% buys
13:3614:02: 047500 shrs, 03.95% of vol, VWAP $0.1529, 063.2% buys
14:1614:35: 077500 shrs, 06.44% of vol, VWAP $0.1579, 071.0% buys
14:3715:58: 054450 shrs, 04.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1593, 063.3% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1500$0.1529: 530694 shrs, 44.10% of vol, VWAP $0.1505, 010.4% buys
$0.1530$0.1555: 276228 shrs, 22.95% of vol, VWAP $0.1547, 052.1% buys
$0.1570$0.1599: 110610 shrs, 09.19% of vol, VWAP $0.1587, 071.1% buys
$0.1600$0.1639: 114562 shrs, 09.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1602, 019.4% buys
$0.1700$0.1726: 109400 shrs, 09.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1702, 021.5% buys
$0.1750$0.1750: 062000 shrs, 05.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1750, 008.1% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
02/20 $0.0954 02.76% 19.7%
02/21 $0.0940 01.50% 50.1%
02/24 $0.0927 01.30% 29.9%
02/25 $0.0936 +00.93% 47.9%
02/26 $0.0962 +02.80% 58.9%
02/27 $0.0966 +00.39% 43.8%
02/28 $0.0974 +00.82% 42.5%
03/03 $0.0968 00.66% 41.8%
03/04 $0.0977 +00.93% 29.7%
03/05 $0.1108 +13.51% 51.0%
03/06 $0.1446 +30.46% 44.7%
03/07 $0.1847 +27.73% 54.2%
03/10 $0.2000 +08.28% 43.2%
03/11 $0.1799 10.04% 44.6%
03/12 $0.1562 13.18% 27.3%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/10: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
03/11: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
03/12: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
Vol in K, for above days: 4,637.87 950.33 1,203.49.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
03/11/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 141, MinTrSz: 91, MaxTrSz: 55000, Vol: 950331, AvTrSz: 6740
Min. Pr: 0.1726, Max Pr: 0.1870, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1799
# Buys, Shares: 77 423465, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1814
# Sells, Shares: 62 515866, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1786
# Unkn, Shares: 2 11000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1829
Buy:Sell 1:1.22 (44.56% "buys"), DlyShts 420954 (44.30%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 81.60%
Yesterday I said the action reinforced the assessment that the run up was done for the nearterm. I thought we'd see prices start to tail off in the next couple of days and said my favorite shortterm target was a "reversion to the mean", in this case around $0.16$0.165 or so. So far it's moving as expected with a large volume reduction and narrower spread and lower price ranges.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0764 vs. $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0766, $0.0767 and $0.0768 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1439 vs. $0.1600, $0.1478, $0.1157, $0.0887, $0.0781, $0.0774, $0.0779, $0.0773 and $0.0770 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 7.74%, 19.05%, 10.04%, 79.51% and 67.77% respectively. Price spread today was 8.34% vs. 44.19%, 46.60%, 13.53%, 33.63%, 6.32%, 10.29%, 9.14%, 5.26% and 7.86% on prior days.
On the traditional TA front, spread has narrowed and volume has dropped, along with the price range. It's looking very much like a shortterm consolidation is in the cards.
Today's $0.1752 close was below both the prior close and today's open, both $0.18. Volume decreased a whopping 79.51%, down to 950.33K from ~4,638K.
Full stochastic exited overbought. ADX related met expectations and started to weaken. Williams %R continued retreating and is still slightly above neutral. Momentum dropped more, from ~1.86 to ~1.84 today. MFI is still lagging and remains overbought, but at least it has stopped rising. Accumulation and distribution remains flat.
RSI is still overbought at ~73.4, down from 76.8 the prior two days ~92.84.
The MACD and its histogram, both well above neutral, have stopped climbing and both are flattening somewhat now. I expect this to slowly start to roll over the next few days.
The Bollingers, which stopped diverging yesterday, haven't yet started the adjustment. The early signs are now there though, so I do expect the start of convergence in the next day or two unless price does something totally unexpected. Big news would cause that, for sure.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 14 of the 141 trades, 9.93%. These 381,175 shares were 40.11% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1801. 7 of these trades, 50.00%, were buys of 154,350 shares, 40.49% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1814. 7 of the larger trades, 50.00%, were sells of 226,825 shares, 59.51% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1791.
The other 127 trades, 90.07% of the day's trades, representing 569,156 shares (59.89% of trade volume), went at a VWAP of $0.1956.
In the nontraditional TA area, today's 44.6% buys continues to not suggest a strong bullish continuation. With today's volume again lower, by 79.51%, and VWAP down 10.04%, I think yesterday's early indication of some weakening is being shown accurate.
Daily short percentage, which was lower yesterday, moved back into a range that I think will end up, somewhere far down the road, being "normal". 44% was the average over a month for 18K symbols on the OTC and unless AXPW is an exception I feel it will eventually get there. For the nearterm, I just note that if you look at the chart you'll see that the behavior has certainly changed and it's looking a lot like more normal behavior is surfacing. The 10day average has already begun to reflect this and the other periods will begin to follow I think.
My original inflection point calculations have oneday changes with three periods weaker and three improved. The aggregate change over five days has five periods improved and the rate of change over those days has all periods improved, indicating a reducing rate of weakening. The newer version has oneday changes that continued yesterday's change to weakening, moving from weaker in four periods to weaker in all six. The aggregate change over five days is the same now and the rate of change is accelerating the all periods showing weakness begun yesterday.
It's all about the pattern  look at the test version and you'll see the end of a very bullish pattern beginning.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:44: 035777 shrs, 03.76% of vol, VWAP $0.1782, 029.6% buys
09:4809:59: 126675 shrs, 13.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1801, 029.0% buys
10:0410:19: 044175 shrs, 04.65% of vol, VWAP $0.1757, 041.5% buys
10:2010:35: 013500 shrs, 01.42% of vol, VWAP $0.1829, 068.0% buys
11:0012:01: 088157 shrs, 09.28% of vol, VWAP $0.1796, 079.1% buys
12:0312:30: 126422 shrs, 13.30% of vol, VWAP $0.1812, 091.3% buys
12:3112:54: 149900 shrs, 15.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1810, 015.1% buys
13:1913:59: 099775 shrs, 10.50% of vol, VWAP $0.1825, 056.1% buys
14:0214:45: 089000 shrs, 09.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1814, 036.0% buys
14:4615:15: 074250 shrs, 07.81% of vol, VWAP $0.2997, 052.9% buys
15:1615:32: 048000 shrs, 05.05% of vol, VWAP $0.1756, 012.5% buys
15:4515:59: 054700 shrs, 05.76% of vol, VWAP $0.1762, 014.1% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1726$0.1726: 004000 shrs, 00.42% of vol, VWAP $0.1726, 000.0% buys
$0.1750$0.1799: 239000 shrs, 25.15% of vol, VWAP $0.2138, 018.2% buys
$0.1800$0.1800: 384670 shrs, 40.48% of vol, VWAP $0.1800, 044.6% buys
$0.1801$0.1811: 062500 shrs, 06.58% of vol, VWAP $0.1803, 000.8% buys
$0.1820$0.1839: 214309 shrs, 22.55% of vol, VWAP $0.1828, 075.6% buys
$0.1840$0.1869: 045575 shrs, 04.80% of vol, VWAP $0.1855, 100.0% buys
$0.1870$0.1870: 000277 shrs, 00.03% of vol, VWAP $0.1870, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
02/19 $0.0981 01.75% 43.6%
02/20 $0.0954 02.76% 19.7%
02/21 $0.0940 01.50% 50.1%
02/24 $0.0927 01.30% 29.9%
02/25 $0.0936 +00.93% 47.9%
02/26 $0.0962 +02.80% 58.9%
02/27 $0.0966 +00.39% 43.8%
02/28 $0.0974 +00.82% 42.5%
03/03 $0.0968 00.66% 41.8%
03/04 $0.0977 +00.93% 29.7%
03/05 $0.1108 +13.51% 51.0%
03/06 $0.1446 +30.46% 44.7%
03/07 $0.1847 +27.73% 54.2%
03/10 $0.2000 +08.28% 43.2%
03/11 $0.1799 10.04% 44.6%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/10: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
03/11: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
Vol in K, for above days: 4637.87 950.33.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
03/10/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 459, MinTrSz: 1, MaxTrSz: 133000, Vol: 4637867, AvTrSz: 10104
Min. Pr: 0.1602, Max Pr: 0.2310, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2000
# Buys, Shares: 224 2002129, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2024
# Sells, Shares: 231 2619250, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1983
# Unkn, Shares: 4 16488, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1806
Buy:Sell 1:1.31 (43.17% "buys"), DlyShts 1306110 (28.16%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 49.87%
I suspected yesterday that we were nearing the end of this push up. Today reinforces that assessment. Both traditional TA indicators and my newer experimental inflection point calculations seem to support this assessment. I think we'll see prices start to tail off in the next couple of days. My favorite shortterm target is a "reversion to the mean", in this case around $0.16$0.165 or so. But I also suspect this won't be a strong reversal point. Whether we do a "Sideways Samba" or begin slowly sinking into the mire of past behavior is a guess I won't make yet. I guess we could also do some more running up even with no news since that what we did this time  up with no news.
The trading breakdown by time is very detailed again today.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0764 vs. $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0766, $0.0767, $0.0768 and $0.0768 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1600 vs. $0.1478, $0.1157, $0.0887, $0.0781, $0.0774, $0.0779, $0.0773, $0.0770 and $0.0749 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 6.80%, 5.05%, 8.28%, 13.46% and 17.00% respectively. Price spread today was 44.19% vs. 46.60%, 13.53%, 33.63%, 6.32%, 10.29%, 9.14%, 5.26%, 7.86% and 15.44% on prior days.
On the traditional TA front, we continue with an excessive spread, but a bit smaller than yesterday, and a higher low, high and VWAP. The open was above yesterday's close. But a potential dark cloud has appeared.
Today's $0.18 close was below both the prior close of $0.20 and today's open of $0.221, with again very high volume. Volume decreased only marginally from ~5.4MM to ~4.64. With still decent volume on a down day we should expect some more weakness in the coming days.
Full stochastic is still overbought but continued the weakening begun yesterday. It seems on track to meet my expectation of yesterday, "I suspect in the next day or two it will cross below the %D". Yesterday's ADX related, which was still bullish and rising, also met expectations, "... but the DI+ at 73% is well extended and might start to retreat soon", as it has started to weaken. Williams %R continued retreating from overbought and is slightly above neutral now.
Momentum dropped from yesterday's extreme ~2.06 to ~1.86. This is not a bad reading when we are rising, but should be viewed skeptically when we have begun a move down, which it appears we have.
MFI, which seems to me to be a somewhat useless laggard, having gone into overbought late, now remains in overbought and is still rising. Accumulation and distribution remains flat.
RSI is remains overbought at 76.8 but is down from ~92.84 yesterday.
The MACD continues well above neutral and still climbing, along with the histogram. The rate of ascent for both continues to slow.
Over the last couple days, noting that price blew right through the 200day SMA, I expressed concern that a trendending volume spike may have occurred. Yesterday reinforced that as volume was weaker even as price still rose strongly. That combination made it too soon to try and assess if the trend was indeed. I believe today confirms the trend end.
The Bollingers, still widely split, have stopped diverging. The adjustment I mentioned would come after a few days should begin to appear in the next couple days as a slight beginning of convergence.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 93 of the 459 trades, 20.26%. These 3,024,600 shares were 65.22% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.2004. 33 of these trades, 35.48%, were buys of 1,225,298 shares, 40.51% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.2055. 60 of the larger trades, 64.52%, were sells of 1,799,302 shares, 59.49% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1970.
The other 366 trades, 79.74% of the day's trades, representing 1,613,267 shares (34.78% of trade volume), went at a VWAP of $0.1991.
The first peek I got at the bid/ask was at 09:56. ARCA was in on the sell side then with an offer at $0.22 and I saw no movement from them even as other marketmakers jumped ahead of them through 11:10. When I checked at 11:34 ARCA was gone and I saw them next at 12:08 with a $0.20 offer, which was above the best ones at the time of $0.1937 (TEJS), $0.1938 (NITE), $0.1944 (ATDF), $0.1951 (OTCPK:CSTI), $0.199 (CDEL), and then ARCA. At 12:50 they presented at $0.19, fourth in line. They stayed there until my peek at 13:32, when they moved to $0.175, third in line. AT 14:57 they were at $0.19, second in line, and were at $0.18 at 15:34, behind NITE at $0.1799.
Over all, this looked much more like typical trading rather than the intense selling we've seen associated with ARCA in the past.
ARCA was on the bid briefly at 10:06, when I peeked, with the best bid then of $0.215, followed by a $0.2013 from ATDF. That was the only time I saw ARCA on the buy side. I saw a sell at that price shortly after that time, so I think that was a real buyer.
In the nontraditional TA area, today's 43.2% buys was the weakest since the 29.7% on 3/4. It's not a really bad number, but is not suggesting a strong bullish continuation either. Of course, we never did quite hit what I considered strong bullishness. The high of 54.2% on good volume 3/7 was close and could have been the start of a bullish indication, but it couldn't hold. I mentioned yesterday that we had the first signs of running out of steam with yesterday's volume lower by 9.96%. With today's volume lower again, by 17%, I think that is the indication even with the VWAP up by 8.28%. Volume is the truth teller.
Daily short percentage is lower again. However, I don't see it as out of range, considering the buy percentage and several days of high volume. It's sitting right around the 50day average (see the chart) and I'm really thinking that the daily short percentage has moved to more normal behavior  that is like other stocks instead of the garbage seen in the past. But until we see what happens when volume is more normal, which it will certainly be shortly, we should not draw this conclusion.
My original inflection point calculations have oneday changes have four weaker periods and only two improved. The aggregate change over five days has all periods weaker and the rate of change over those days also has all periods weakening. Just more volatility? Maybe not because the newer version has oneday changes that flipped from continued improvement in all periods to weaker in four periods along with an aggregate change over five days with all periods weaker and the rate of change with all periods showing weakness beginning.
It's all about the pattern  look at the test version and you'll see the end of a very bullish pattern beginning.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
08:0009:29: 032500 shrs, 00.70% of vol, VWAP $0.2155, 092.3% buys
09:3009:44: 681300 shrs, 14.69% of vol, VWAP $0.2197, 029.2% buys
09:4509:56: 477248 shrs, 10.29% of vol, VWAP $0.2214, 066.8% buys
09:5710:15: 140900 shrs, 03.04% of vol, VWAP $0.2184, 068.8% buys
10:1710:29: 213785 shrs, 04.61% of vol, VWAP $0.2170, 062.7% buys
10:3210:44: 077501 shrs, 01.67% of vol, VWAP $0.2145, 090.3% buys
10:4811:11: 378900 shrs, 08.17% of vol, VWAP $0.2126, 058.1% buys
11:1211:15: 181624 shrs, 03.92% of vol, VWAP $0.2096, 014.7% buys
11:1611:30: 209200 shrs, 04.51% of vol, VWAP $0.2005, 016.3% buys
11:3311:58: 235928 shrs, 05.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1973, 038.9% buys
11:5912:13: 268180 shrs, 05.78% of vol, VWAP $0.1909, 016.9% buys
12:1512:38: 516400 shrs, 11.13% of vol, VWAP $0.1903, 009.4% buys
12:4112:51: 088500 shrs, 01.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1856, 000.0% buys
12:5112:56: 128100 shrs, 02.76% of vol, VWAP $0.1712, 012.5% buys
12:5713:30: 315575 shrs, 06.80% of vol, VWAP $0.1667, 061.0% buys
13:3113:57: 064600 shrs, 01.39% of vol, VWAP $0.1673, 015.4% buys
14:0114:53: 218700 shrs, 04.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1746, 081.7% buys
14:5415:17: 046999 shrs, 01.01% of vol, VWAP $0.1809, 079.8% buys
15:2415:48: 092501 shrs, 01.99% of vol, VWAP $0.1788, 072.4% buys
15:4815:51: 111000 shrs, 02.39% of vol, VWAP $0.1807, 066.3% buys
15:5215:58: 163426 shrs, 03.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1877, 068.5% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1602$0.1699: 300175 shrs, 06.47% of vol, VWAP $0.1659, 039.6% buys
$0.1700$0.1799: 546802 shrs, 11.79% of vol, VWAP $0.1739, 064.3% buys
$0.1800$0.1899: 316424 shrs, 06.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1844, 049.3% buys
$0.1900$0.1999: 966648 shrs, 20.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1910, 018.8% buys
$0.2000$0.2050: 344060 shrs, 07.42% of vol, VWAP $0.2005, 031.6% buys
$0.2100$0.2199: 1098384 shrs, 23.68% of vol, VWAP $0.2130, 040.9% buys
$0.2200$0.2250: 1035324 shrs, 22.32% of vol, VWAP $0.2220, 058.5% buys
$0.2300$0.2310: 030050 shrs, 00.65% of vol, VWAP $0.2300, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
02/18 $0.0999 02.08% 34.0%
02/19 $0.0981 01.75% 43.6%
02/20 $0.0954 02.76% 19.7%
02/21 $0.0940 01.50% 50.1%
02/24 $0.0927 01.30% 29.9%
02/25 $0.0936 +00.93% 47.9%
02/26 $0.0962 +02.80% 58.9%
02/27 $0.0966 +00.39% 43.8%
02/28 $0.0974 +00.82% 42.5%
03/03 $0.0968 00.66% 41.8%
03/04 $0.0977 +00.93% 29.7%
03/05 $0.1108 +13.51% 51.0%
03/06 $0.1446 +30.46% 44.7%
03/07 $0.1847 +27.73% 54.2%
03/10 $0.2000 +08.28% 43.2%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/03: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0956, x 80%: $0.0764
03/04: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
03/05: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
03/06: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
03/07: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
03/10: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
Vol in K, for above days: 772.42 2,651.89 4,198.96, 5,952.18 5359.39 4637.87.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
03/07/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 599, MinTrSz: 1, MaxTrSz: 139800, Vol: 5359392, AvTrSz: 8947
Min. Pr: 0.1500, Max Pr: 0.2199, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1847
# Buys, Shares: 358 2903188, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1860
# Sells, Shares: 237 2420204, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1833
# Unkn, Shares: 4 36000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1755
Buy:Sell 1.20:1 (54.17% "buys"), DlyShts 1573661 (29.36%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 65.02%
I suspect that we are quite near the end of this push up.
The trading breakdown by time is very detailed again today.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0764 vs. $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0766, $0.0767, $0.0768, $0.0768 and $0.0769 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1478 vs $0.1157, $0.0887, $0.0781, $0.0774, $0.0779, $0.0773, $0.0770, $0.0749 and $0.0742 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 12.78%, 45.63%,27.73%, 9.96% and 2.87% respectively. Price spread today was 46.60% vs. 13.53%, 33.63%, 6.32%, 10.29%, 9.14%, 5.26%, 7.86%, 15.44% and 6.59% on prior days.
On the traditional TA front, we had a really excessive spread (BUT MUCH LESS SO THAN YESTERDAY) and a higher low, high and VWAP. The close was above both the prior close and above the open, with again very high volume and volume increasing substantially.
Full stochastic is still well into overbought but weakened a bit today. I suspect in the next day or two it will cross below the %D. ADX related are bullish and rising, but the DI+ at 73% is well extended and might start to retreat soon. Williams %R has retreated from very overbought to be right at overbought now. Momentum continued moving smartly: ~0.96, 1.33, ~1.65 and now ~2.06. MFI finally went into overbought. Accumulation and distribution, which was on the rise, has gone flat.
RSI is even deeper into overbought at ~92.84 from yesterday's 86.64 and still rising, but I suspect an upper bound exists at 100! :)).
The MACD continues well above neutral and climbing, along with the histogram. The rate of ascent for both has begun to slow.
I noted yesterday that price blew right through the 200day SMA, $0.1361 and traded almost exclusively above it on strong and rising volume today, a very bullish signal. The only possible concern was that volume had "spiked", suggesting a possible trend end is nearing. Today reinforces that last item of concern as volume was weaker. But price still rose strongly with a higher open, low, high and close, so it's really too soon to try and assess if the trend is indeed ending. I would take heed of what's happening with the oscillators, detailed above, though.
The Bollingers, which were widely split and diverging, are still diverging. The adjustment I mentioned would come after a few days or so should start to appear shortly. I suspect we'll see some convergence for a few days before we can determine if price will move towards some midpoint of the Bollingers will converge towards price.
The larger trades (>= 15K), which was the most balanced I had seen Wednesday and had lost some of the balance Thursday, got the balance back today. The percentage split between buy and sell volumes went from yesterday's ~36%/63%, and ~46%/~54% Wednesday, to 52.18%/46.94% buy/sell. Larger trades occurred on 89 of the 599 trades, 14.86% (vs. 18.20% & 30.09% the prior two days  I wish it were going the other way). These 2,836,369 shares were 52.92% (vs. 61.45% & 65.10% the prior two days) of days volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1871 (vs. $0.1446 & $0.1109 prior two days). 51 of these trades, 57.30% (vs. 38.82% & 46.67%), were buys of 1,480,107 shares, 52.18% (vs. 35.98% & 46.14%) of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1870 (vs. $0.1444 & $0.1115). 37 of the larger trades, 41.57% (vs. 60.00% & 53.33%), were sells of 1,331,262 shares, 46.94% (vs. 63.40% & 53.86%) of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1875 (vs. $0.1447 & $0.1104).
The other 510 trades, 2,523,023 shares representing 85.14% (vs. 33.76% & 35.25%) of day's volume, went at a VWAP of $0.1820 (vs. $0.1447 & $0.1106).
I was again unable to track the bids and asks as I normally do.
In the nontraditional TA area, today's 54.2% buys recovered to be stronger than yesterday's 44.7%, which was weaker than Wednesday's 51% buy percentage. This is quite respectable, especially with price up as it was, although still shy of what I'd like to see over time if we are in a bull run. As with yesterday, increasing price had to bring in some ad hoc sellers. As might be expected with a highvolume rocketlike "lift off" over the last few days, the first signs of running out of steam began to appear with today's volume lower by 9.96% than yesterday's volume. But considering we were up 41.75% after Wednesday's 58.34% increase, we can't complain ... yet.
Daily short percentage is lower than would be suggested by the buy percentages of 50.95%, 44.67% and 54.17% Wednesday through Friday. Especially concerning is that the short percentage is declining, generally (well, three days is not really a "trend" yet), as the buy percentage rises. Short percentages for those same days were 40.93%, 25.70% and 29.36%. This last figure dropping as the buy percentage rises suggests coming price weakness. However, the short percentage is still not excessively low, as can be seen by the averages on the chart. It's right there in the range of all today's averages of 31.72%, 30.05%, 28.56% and 24.80% for the 10, 25, 50 and 100day periods respectively.
The possibility that we might be seeing a change in the daily short sales behavior is getting stronger. I've mentioned a few times recently that the short percentage was not as high or low as I would've expected for the buy percentage that day. Today's 54.2% buy percentage should have produced a rise much higher in the daily short percentage if the old scenarios were still in place. Moving from 25.7% to 29.36% of volume as daily short sales is a bit weaker of an increase than I would expect when buy percentage moves from 44.7% to 54.2%. This might be an effect of the high recent trading volume, which gives marketmakers a covering buy opportunity on shorted shares. Then the shares backing the sell orders the MMs processed can come flowing in and leave the MM shortterm long, reducing the number of sells that must be flagged as short.
My original inflection point calculations yesterday had five weakened, continuing the volatility I've been noting, with five periods in the five day aggregate flipped from showing improvement to weakening, and rates of change for them the same  five improved flipped to five weakened. Today had oneday changes with all periods slightly improved, five periods improved over five days' aggregate change and all six periods improved for rate of change. Just more volatility.
The newer version has oneday changes that continue improving in all periods, including the 5day period which moved further above zero. The aggregate change over five days all periods improved too. The rate of change has only the fiveday period improving. The other periods have a slowing rate of improvement.
It's all about the pattern  look at the test version and you'll see a very bullish pattern.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:38: 130649 shrs, 02.44% of vol, VWAP $0.1533, 029.6% buys
09:3910:03: 122300 shrs, 02.28% of vol, VWAP $0.1552, 015.6% buys
10:0410:20: 224923 shrs, 04.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1587, 075.7% buys
10:2210:31: 095880 shrs, 01.79% of vol, VWAP $0.1529, 000.0% buys
10:3210:49: 202455 shrs, 03.78% of vol, VWAP $0.1578, 035.2% buys
10:5011:12: 217594 shrs, 04.06% of vol, VWAP $0.1732, 067.8% buys
11:1311:55: 486998 shrs, 09.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1689, 083.6% buys
11:5712:42: 668900 shrs, 12.48% of vol, VWAP $0.1706, 048.4% buys
12:4913:14: 383118 shrs, 07.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1753, 054.8% buys
13:1513:42: 290268 shrs, 05.42% of vol, VWAP $0.1780, 075.5% buys
13:4413:58: 156010 shrs, 02.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1814, 045.0% buys
14:0014:10: 134300 shrs, 02.51% of vol, VWAP $0.1908, 050.6% buys
14:1114:19: 092848 shrs, 01.73% of vol, VWAP $0.1953, 065.8% buys
14:2014:26: 232732 shrs, 04.34% of vol, VWAP $0.2025, 054.4% buys
14:2814:29: 184950 shrs, 03.45% of vol, VWAP $0.2088, 069.0% buys
14:3014:44: 309507 shrs, 05.78% of vol, VWAP $0.2079, 040.1% buys
14:4514:52: 124975 shrs, 02.33% of vol, VWAP $0.2037, 063.6% buys
14:5415:04: 303555 shrs, 05.66% of vol, VWAP $0.2113, 084.8% buys
15:0515:25: 208525 shrs, 03.89% of vol, VWAP $0.2076, 046.4% buys
15:2615:30: 203101 shrs, 03.79% of vol, VWAP $0.2092, 023.6% buys
15:3115:43: 110777 shrs, 02.07% of vol, VWAP $0.2055, 031.0% buys
15:4415:59: 475027 shrs, 08.86% of vol, VWAP $0.2008, 042.7% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1500$0.1548: 235474 shrs, 04.39% of vol, VWAP $0.1531, 016.2% buys
$0.1550$0.1599: 453233 shrs, 08.46% of vol, VWAP $0.1567, 038.3% buys
$0.1600$0.1648: 087300 shrs, 01.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1625, 100.0% buys
$0.1650$0.1699: 483298 shrs, 09.02% of vol, VWAP $0.1687, 079.1% buys
$0.1700$0.1749: 944392 shrs, 17.62% of vol, VWAP $0.1714, 054.9% buys
$0.1750$0.1799: 561463 shrs, 10.48% of vol, VWAP $0.1765, 062.0% buys
$0.1800$0.1870: 239935 shrs, 04.48% of vol, VWAP $0.1815, 053.8% buys
$0.1900$0.1920: 098700 shrs, 01.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1903, 026.8% buys
$0.1950$0.1999: 189100 shrs, 03.53% of vol, VWAP $0.1976, 091.5% buys
$0.2000$0.2049: 783632 shrs, 14.62% of vol, VWAP $0.2009, 028.3% buys
$0.2050$0.2099: 709428 shrs, 13.24% of vol, VWAP $0.2076, 039.1% buys
$0.2100$0.2144: 432905 shrs, 08.08% of vol, VWAP $0.2102, 089.4% buys
$0.2150$0.2199: 140532 shrs, 02.62% of vol, VWAP $0.2183, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
02/14 $0.1020 03.55% 17.7%
02/18 $0.0999 02.08% 34.0%
02/19 $0.0981 01.75% 43.6%
02/20 $0.0954 02.76% 19.7%
02/21 $0.0940 01.50% 50.1%
02/24 $0.0927 01.30% 29.9%
02/25 $0.0936 +00.93% 47.9%
02/26 $0.0962 +02.80% 58.9%
02/27 $0.0966 +00.39% 43.8%
02/28 $0.0974 +00.82% 42.5%
03/03 $0.0968 00.66% 41.8%
03/04 $0.0977 +00.93% 29.7%
03/05 $0.1108 +13.51% 51.0%
03/06 $0.1446 +30.46% 44.7%
03/07 $0.1847 +27.73% 54.2%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/03: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0956, x 80%: $0.0764
03/04: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
03/05: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
03/06: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
03/07: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
Vol in K, for above days: 772.42 2,651.89 4,198.96, 5,952.18 5359.39.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
03/06/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 467, MinTrSz: 1, MaxTrSz: 243626, Vol: 5952182, AvTrSz: 12746
Min. Pr: 0.1330, Max Pr: 0.1510, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1446
# Buys, Shares: 276 2658614, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1449
# Sells, Shares: 187 3230568, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1445
# Unkn, Shares: 4 63000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1384
Buy:Sell 1:1.22 (44.67% "buys"), DlyShts 1529792 (25.70%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 47.35%
Take a look at the trading breakdown by time, very detailed today, for what a "lift off" looks like. Note that we had 85K in premarket trades too.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0764 vs. $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0766, $0.0767, $0.0768, $0.0768, $0.0769 and $0.0772 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1157 vs. $0.0887, $0.0781, $0.0774, $0.0779, $0.0773, $0.0770, $0.0749, $0.0742 and $0.0752 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 33.13%, 13.11%, 30.46%, 41.75% and 10.99% respectively. Price spread today was 13.53% vs. 33.63%, 6.32%, 10.29%, 9.14%, 5.26%, 7.86%, 15.44%, 6.59% and 9.23% on prior days.
On the traditional TA front, we had an excessive spread (BUT MUCH LESS SO THAN YESTERDAY) and a higher low, high and VWAP. The close was above both the prior close and above the open, with again very high volume and volume increasing substantially.
Full stochastic is now well into overbought, ADX related are above neutral and rising, Williams %R is overbought, momentum continued moving smartly: ~0.96, 1.33 and now ~1.65, MFI is rapidly ascending and about to go overbought, and accumulation and distribution continues rising.
RSI is deeper into overbought at 86.64 and still rising. As mentioned though, when moves are very strong things can keep the oscillators in overbought territory for a very long time.
The MACD is well above neutral now and continues to climb, along with the histogram.
Price was bumping blew right through the 200day SMA, $0.1361 and traded almost exclusively above it on strong and rising volume today, a very bullish signal. The only possible concern is that volume has "spiked", suggesting a possible trend end is nearing.
The Bollingers are still widely split and being "pushed" by price and might be a concern as a return to midpoint is common. But as mentioned yesterday this doesn't usually happen in just a day or two. Some time usually will pass and the Bollingers will adjust some before a move towards the midpoint begins. So I don't think it's a worry for now.
The larger trades (>= 15K) which was the most balanced I had seen yesterday, lost some of the balance today. The percentage split between buy and sell volumes went from ~46%/~54% to today's ~36%/63%. I guess this is to be expected when price rockets (see the trading breakdown by time for what a "lift off" looks like). Larger trades occurred on 85 of the 467 trades, 18.20% (vs. 30.09% yesterday). These 3,657,642 shares were 61.45% (vs. 65.10%) of days volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1446 (vs. $0.1109). 33 of these trades, 38.82% (vs. 46.67%), were buys of 1,315,842 shares, 35.98% (vs. 46.14%) of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1444 (vs. $0.1115). 51 of the larger trades, 60.00% (vs. 53.33%), were sells of 2,318,800 shares, 63.40% (vs. 53.86%) of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1447 (vs. $0.1104).
The other 382 trades, 2,009,540 shares representing 33.76% (vs. 35.25% yesterday) of day's volume, went at a VWAP of $0.1447 (vs. $0.1106).
I was again unable to track the bids and asks as I normally do.
In the nontraditional TA area, today's 44.7% was weaker than yesterday's 51% buy percentage, but is still respectable, especially with price up as it was. That had to bring in some ad hoc sellers. Volume was again up a respectable 41.75%, after yesterday's 58.34% increase.
Daily short percentage fell off more than would be suggested by the drop in buy percentage. I attribute this to the marketmakers having covered previously sold shares at attractive prices over the last few days and the shares backing the sell orders they filled are now flowing into the MMs portfolio, reducing the need to flag shares sold as short. However, the short percentage is not excessively low, as can be seen by the averages on the chart. It's right there in the range of all the averages of 31.00%, 29.64%, 28.41% and 24.80% for the 10, 25, 50 and 100day periods respectively.
I've been yakking about the possibility that we might be seeing a change in the daily short sales behavior  leaving the absurdly low readings that seemed to accompany falling prices and returning to a more normal behavior (based on a Q&D run over the 8K+ stocks on the OTC in the past, for a month, I think it was a tad north of 30% average  UPDATE! Had reason to check today and it was 18K symbols and they averaged over 44%!).
My original inflection point calculations yesterday were strong and the oneday inflection changes were all improved but not one period had risen to even a zero level. Today five weakened, continuing the volatility I've been noting. Five periods in the five day aggregate have flipped from showing improvement to weakening, with only the 25day period still improving. The rates of change for them did exactly the same  five improved flipped to five weakened.
The newer version has oneday changes for all periods again improving and the 5day period continues moving further above zero! The aggregate change over five days has five periods still improving, not quite as positive as yesterday's all periods, but is not a reason for concern. A single data point dropping out of the window could account for this. This is supported by the rate of change, which is the same  five periods continue to improve.
It's all about the pattern  look at the test version and you'll see a very bullish pattern.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
08:5409:25: 085000 shrs, 01.43% of vol, VWAP $0.1387, 100.0% buys
09:3009:30: 115498 shrs, 01.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1364, 049.3% buys
09:3209:32: 080702 shrs, 01.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1392, 081.4% buys
09:3309:34: 051600 shrs, 00.87% of vol, VWAP $0.1419, 077.5% buys
09:3509:35: 095000 shrs, 01.60% of vol, VWAP $0.1434, 084.2% buys
09:3609:39: 308950 shrs, 05.19% of vol, VWAP $0.1454, 056.9% buys
09:4009:47: 220200 shrs, 03.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1426, 028.8% buys
09:4809:49: 143000 shrs, 02.40% of vol, VWAP $0.1491, 058.0% buys
09:5010:03: 499600 shrs, 08.39% of vol, VWAP $0.1455, 073.9% buys
10:0410:10: 148692 shrs, 02.50% of vol, VWAP $0.1479, 065.0% buys
10:1110:33: 836681 shrs, 14.06% of vol, VWAP $0.1479, 024.3% buys
10:3510:40: 509026 shrs, 08.55% of vol, VWAP $0.1472, 007.2% buys
10:4111:12: 429821 shrs, 07.22% of vol, VWAP $0.1454, 023.2% buys
11:1611:27: 110532 shrs, 01.86% of vol, VWAP $0.1438, 052.2% buys
11:3412:28: 539577 shrs, 09.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1408, 046.3% buys
12:3313:22: 116500 shrs, 01.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1443, 073.8% buys
13:2513:55: 064075 shrs, 01.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1454, 066.0% buys
13:5614:08: 134240 shrs, 02.26% of vol, VWAP $0.1470, 077.7% buys
14:1314:18: 109785 shrs, 01.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1453, 089.1% buys
14:2814:58: 413735 shrs, 06.95% of vol, VWAP $0.1415, 023.9% buys
15:0015:21: 158000 shrs, 02.65% of vol, VWAP $0.1414, 034.8% buys
15:2215:43: 401000 shrs, 06.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1403, 045.9% buys
15:4415:51: 161500 shrs, 02.71% of vol, VWAP $0.1470, 090.3% buys
15:5215:58: 219468 shrs, 03.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1498, 037.4% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1330$0.1389: 123600 shrs, 02.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1362, 040.5% buys
$0.1390$0.1410: 1435100 shrs, 24.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1405, 041.5% buys
$0.1410$0.1429: 493000 shrs, 08.28% of vol, VWAP $0.1418, 039.5% buys
$0.1430$0.1449: 587092 shrs, 09.86% of vol, VWAP $0.1441, 057.5% buys
$0.1450$0.1459: 838309 shrs, 14.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1452, 049.6% buys
$0.1460$0.1479: 1503840 shrs, 25.27% of vol, VWAP $0.1470, 030.6% buys
$0.1480$0.1499: 755773 shrs, 12.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1492, 066.5% buys
$0.1500$0.1510: 215468 shrs, 03.62% of vol, VWAP $0.1501, 047.3% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
02/13 $0.1057 +01.12% 45.1%
02/14 $0.1020 03.55% 17.7%
02/18 $0.0999 02.08% 34.0%
02/19 $0.0981 01.75% 43.6%
02/20 $0.0954 02.76% 19.7%
02/21 $0.0940 01.50% 50.1%
02/24 $0.0927 01.30% 29.9%
02/25 $0.0936 +00.93% 47.9%
02/26 $0.0962 +02.80% 58.9%
02/27 $0.0966 +00.39% 43.8%
02/28 $0.0974 +00.82% 42.5%
03/03 $0.0968 00.66% 41.8%
03/04 $0.0977 +00.93% 29.7%
03/05 $0.1108 +13.51% 51.0%
03/06 $0.1446 +30.46% 44.7%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/03: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0956, x 80%: $0.0764
03/04: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
03/05: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
03/06: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
Vol in K, for above days: 772.42 2,651.89 4,198.96, 5,952.18.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
03/05/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 349, MinTrSz: 60, MaxTrSz: 95000, Vol: 4198959, AvTrSz: 12031
Min. Pr: 0.0999, Max Pr: 0.1335, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1108
# Buys, Shares: 205 2139462, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1112
# Sells, Shares: 141 2039497, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1104
# Unkn, Shares: 3 20000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1118
Buy:Sell 1.05:1 (50.95% "buys"), DlyShts 1718581 (40.93%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 84.26%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0764 vs. $0.0764, $0.0764, $0.0766, $0.0767, $0.0768, $0.0768, $0.0769, $0.0772 and $0.0775 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0887 vs. $0.0781, $0.0774, $0.0779, $0.0773, $0.0770, $0.0749, $0.0742, $0.0752 and $0.0763 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 5.16%, 32.18%,13.51%, 58.34% and 137.74% respectively. Price spread today was 33.63% vs. 6.32%, 10.29%, 9.14%, 5.26%, 7.86%, 15.44%, 6.59%, 9.23% and 8.42% on prior days.
On the traditional TA front, we had an excessive spread and a higher low, high and VWAP. The close was above both the prior close and above the open, with again very high volume and volume increasing substantially. This negates my thoughts from yesterday when I noted "Normally a higher close with volume is bullish. But when I see the lower high and low I think that's not as strong as it might appear on the charts". I added "... the low sat right on the newer shortterm descending (former resistance) support, rather than trying to depart upward from it, and I'm even less bullish. Yes, we confirmed a break above it  but that just suggests it's now support and we might not (as?) quickly go back under it. It offers no assurance that we'll be doing an "up, up and away" dance. We can easily "ride 'er down" or even drop back below it".
Today all those concerns were addressed as we departed that descending support by moving strongly up and away from it on very good, and rising, volume with a higher low, high and VWAP.
Along with my expectation that we'd ride atop that descending line, at best, for "a while", I worried that with new shares in the PIPErs' hands, I could be completely wrong about that and we could drop below it again quickly and a pull away above would surprise me. With yesterday's volume, I surmised it may not take long to find out "what's next".
I think today is the clue: up, up and away looks very likely.
Yesterday all the oscillators I watch, but for the ADX related, showed improvement. However, the two best readings were essentially at neutral  RSI of 50.49 and full stochastic of 53.44. The others resided in less positive territory and I said there was no clue here yet. Today that's all changed: full stochastic is just below overbought, ADX related is above neutral, Williams %R is overbought, momentum moved smartly from ~0.96 to 1.33, a huge oneday move, MFI is just below neutral and rapidly ascending, and, wonder of wonders, even the accumulation and distribution has decided it's time to stop going down and begin rising.
The only fly in the ointment is RSI. It went directly to overbought, ~74, from yesterday's neutral reading of 50.49. There's good and bad here: overbought suggests retrace may come quickly but when moves are very strong things can keep the oscillators in overbought territory for a very long time. Which way this will play out, nearterm, isn't to be guessed at by me.
The MACD continues to climb and went above neutral, as did the histogram.
Yesterday price was bumping its head on the 50day SMA and my longterm descending resistance, ~$0.10. Because both had been tested in the past and exhibited strength I didn't expect we'd move above them quickly.
FAIL! The few low trades for today were barely below it and all the rest moved smartly up and away from it.
The sixday stable price (range) was broken today. The high, $0.1335, is near to bumping up to the 200day SMA of $0.1373 yesterday and $0.1366 at EOD today. It's been so long since we challenged that metric I have nothing historical that's recent enough with which to try and make some kind of educated guess as to whether or not it will act as resistance. With strongly rising volume, oscillators, VWAP, highs, lows, … I'm leaning towards breaking on through that level in the next day or two.
As usual, a cautionary note: the Bollingers look like a gymnast doing the splits on a vertical balance beam. This condition, aside from causing me mental anguish, can often result in a move to the center of the range. But it doesn't usually happen in just a day or two. Some time usually will pass and the Bollingers will adjust some before a move towards the midpoint begins. So I don't think it's a worry for now.
The larger trades (>= 15K) may have been the most balanced I have seen. I don't have enough experience with them to hazard a guess as to whether this is a normal artifact of large trading volume  that is, higher volumes would tend to be more balanced and low volumes would tend that way less often? By percentage, price and VWAP, all darn close. They occurred on 105 of 349 trades, 30.09%. These 2,733,652 shares were 65.10% of days volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1109. 49 of these trades, 46.67%, were buys of 1,261,336 shares, 46.14% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1115. 56 of the larger trades, 53.33%, were sells of 1,472,316 53.86% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1104.
The rest of the trades, 1,480,307 shares representing 35.25% of day's volume, went at a VWAP of $0.1106.
I was unable to track the bids and asks as I normally do, but I do know ARCA was on the sell side (almost?) all day long. I also know they weren't all that aggressive.
In the nontraditional TA area, today's 51% buy percentage approached doubling yesterday's 29.7%, which was a big drop from 41.8%, 42.5%, 43.8% and 58.9% on prior days and had me somewhat pessimistic. Today's percentage was accompanied by volume up 58.34% vs. yesterday's up 243.32%. Yesterday's lower buy percentage on higher volume reinforced my pessimism. That led me to say even with VWAP increasing yesterday by 0.93% I continue to view this as a cautionary sign because of the new shares entering the market, IMO.
That was a big FAIL, based on what happened today!
Just like yesterday, daily short percentage moved higher today. Whereas yesterday wasn't a big percentage at 27.26%, today was "large" at 40.93%. I mentioned yesterday this (low percentage) trend should go away in just a day or two and we should see the daily short percentage return to stronger correlation to buy percentage. Well, today the buy percentage jumped way above the 41.53%, 38.44%, 36.52% and 34.83% averages for 10, 25, 50 and 100days, respectively, and the daily short sales tagged right along.
I've been yakking about the possibility that we might be seeing a change in the daily short sales behavior  leaving the absurdly low readings that seemed to accompany falling prices and returning to a more normal behavior (based on a Q&D run over the 8K+ stocks on the OTC in the past, for a month, I think it was a tad north of 30% average). I'm leaning more and more to this stock is beginning to trade more normally. Confirmation bias? It would fit with JP's PIPErs running out of shares soon scenario.
My original inflection point calculations two days back had been in disagreement, due to the weak sell percentage, with the price, VWAP and volume action. Yesterday the oneday changes moved from split three improved and three deteriorated to all weakening even as those first three items remained stable with a slight bullish bias. Today those three items, and others, are way more bullish and with large volume and a strong buy percentage. This highlights one of the weaknesses of the original calculations, which consider only buy and sell percentages with volume, that led to the newer versions hoping to address this weakness, or "flakiness" as I called it. Anyway, today things were so strong that the oneday inflection changes are all improving, doing nothing useful other than showing the volatility. Not one period has yet risen to even a zero level yet. Five periods in the five day aggregate change show improvement and the rates of change for them are the same  five improving.
The newer version has oneday changes for all periods improving too and the 5day period has gone positive, suggesting bullishness. The aggregate change over five days is likewise improved for all periods, and the rate of change is the same.
The important thing, as I've mentioned several times, is the chart pattern  take a peek at it. It's saying "To the moon Alice!" on the newer version. This wasn't one of the heretofore most common "beginning to form the pattern, ... may complete, ... nope, ..." routines. Look at my oneyear blog, carefully, and I think you'll see what I mean.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:31: 071500 shrs, 01.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 072.0% buys
09:3209:43: 289248 shrs, 06.89% of vol, VWAP $0.1063, 059.5% buys
09:4609:59: 210600 shrs, 05.02% of vol, VWAP $0.1091, 049.7% buys
10:0110:15: 282600 shrs, 06.73% of vol, VWAP $0.1091, 052.2% buys
10:1610:30: 150499 shrs, 03.58% of vol, VWAP $0.1097, 066.1% buys
10:3510:59: 519250 shrs, 12.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1092, 051.2% buys
11:0011:42: 403004 shrs, 09.60% of vol, VWAP $0.1089, 068.0% buys
11:4312:14: 326510 shrs, 07.78% of vol, VWAP $0.1087, 050.9% buys
12:1812:44: 319900 shrs, 07.62% of vol, VWAP $0.1061, 018.7% buys
12:4814:35: 394416 shrs, 09.39% of vol, VWAP $0.1050, 043.6% buys
14:4215:27: 308673 shrs, 07.35% of vol, VWAP $0.1085, 073.1% buys
15:2715:34: 216000 shrs, 05.14% of vol, VWAP $0.1150, 022.2% buys
15:3415:43: 371260 shrs, 08.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1225, 063.7% buys
15:4415:53: 251499 shrs, 05.99% of vol, VWAP $0.1220, 031.3% buys
15:5615:59: 046000 shrs, 01.10% of vol, VWAP $0.1293, 044.6% buys
15:5915:59: 056000 shrs, 01.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1311, 030.4% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0999$0.1000: 071500 shrs, 01.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 072.0% buys
$0.1005$0.1048: 168167 shrs, 04.00% of vol, VWAP $0.1037, 017.8% buys
$0.1050$0.1056: 570499 shrs, 13.59% of vol, VWAP $0.1051, 028.7% buys
$0.1060$0.1065: 100999 shrs, 02.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1061, 040.6% buys
$0.1070$0.1089: 577370 shrs, 13.75% of vol, VWAP $0.1080, 040.4% buys
$0.1090$0.1090: 647869 shrs, 15.43% of vol, VWAP $0.1090, 023.2% buys
$0.1091$0.1099: 994297 shrs, 23.68% of vol, VWAP $0.1095, 092.8% buys
$0.1100$0.1100: 150499 shrs, 03.58% of vol, VWAP $0.1100, 096.7% buys
$0.1147$0.1199: 195500 shrs, 04.66% of vol, VWAP $0.1156, 024.6% buys
$0.1200$0.1241: 561759 shrs, 13.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1220, 045.7% buys
$0.1250$0.1298: 104500 shrs, 02.49% of vol, VWAP $0.1269, 075.6% buys
$0.1301$0.1335: 056000 shrs, 01.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1311, 030.4% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
02/12 $0.1046 05.05% 46.6%
02/13 $0.1057 +01.12% 45.1%
02/14 $0.1020 03.55% 17.7%
02/18 $0.0999 02.08% 34.0%
02/19 $0.0981 01.75% 43.6%
02/20 $0.0954 02.76% 19.7%
02/21 $0.0940 01.50% 50.1%
02/24 $0.0927 01.30% 29.9%
02/25 $0.0936 +00.93% 47.9%
02/26 $0.0962 +02.80% 58.9%
02/27 $0.0966 +00.39% 43.8%
02/28 $0.0974 +00.82% 42.5%
03/03 $0.0968 00.66% 41.8%
03/04 $0.0977 +00.93% 29.7%
03/05 $0.1108 +13.51% 51.0%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/03: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0956, x 80%: $0.0764
03/04: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
03/05: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
Vol in K, for above days: 772.42 2,651.89 4,198.96.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
03/04/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 196, MinTrSz: 37, MaxTrSz: 67500, Vol: 2651888, AvTrSz: 13530
Min. Pr: 0.0950, Max Pr: 0.1010, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0977
# Buys, Shares: 76 787884, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0987
# Sells, Shares: 118 1839304, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0972
# Unkn, Shares: 2 24700, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0972
Buy:Sell 1:2.33 (29.71% "buys"), DlyShts 722847 (27.26%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 39.30%
On this hallowed day of new shares for the market, it was honored by abstinence by "lateday weakness"  a "fast" if you will. It is a wonder, is it not?
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0764 vs. $0.0764, $0.0766, $0.0767, $0.0768, $0.0768, $0.0769, $0.0772, $0.0775 and $0.0777 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0781 vs. $0.0774, $0.0779, $0.0773, $0.0770, $0.0749, $0.0742, $0.0752, $0.0763 and $0.0785 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.21%, 3.81%, 0.93%, 243.32% and 335.40% respectively. Price spread today was 6.32% vs. 10.29%, 9.14%, 5.26%, 7.86%, 15.44%, 6.59%, 9.23%, 8.42% and 3.59% on prior days.
We had one exceptional trade of 37 shares, a small "odd lot" trade. This volume may not appear when you check various services, just as it doesn't on Power Etrade Pro nor on the summary research screen on the Etrade web site. It went off at 15:25 at $0.1009, the second highest price seen today. It appeared between two 5K trades at $0.0971 and I don't see any relation to anything else. If I had my TFH activated I might suspect something.
On the traditional TA front, we had a reasonable spread and a lower low and high. The close was above both the prior close and above the open, with very high volume. Normally a higher close with volume is bullish. But when I see the lower high and low I think that's not as strong as it might appear on the charts. Add in that the low sat right on the newer shortterm descending (former resistance) support, rather than trying to depart upward from it, and I'm even less bullish. Yes, we confirmed a break above it  but that just suggests it's now support and we might not (as?) quickly go back under it. It offers no assurance that we'll be doing an "up, up and away" dance. We can easily "ride 'er down" or even drop back below it.
Recall I said "My expectation is that we'll ride atop that descending line, at best, for "a while". But with new shares in the PIPErs' hands, I could be completely wrong about that and we could drop below it again quickly. A pull away above would surprise me". With today's volume, it may not take long to find out "what's next". The oscillators might be giving a clue ... or another "head fake".
In contrast to yesterday, when most oscillators I watch were essentially flat and three, full stochastic, MFI and Williams %r, weakened by a noticeable amount, today all but the ADX related showed improvement. However, the two best readings are essentially at neutral  RSI of 50.49 and full stochastic of 53.44. The other reside in less positive territory. No clue here ... yet.
The MACD continues to climb towards neutral and the histogram is there now.
Price is bumping its head on the 50day SMA, today $0.1002, and my longterm descending resistance, ~$0.10 today. Both have been tested in the past and exhibited strength so I don't expect we'll move above them quickly.
Price (range) remained "stable" for the sixth day even as (apparently) new shares entered the market today.
Larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 56 of 196 trades, 28.57%. These 1,601,229 shares were 60.38% of days volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0976. 13 of these trades, 23.21%, were buys of 350,900 shares, 21.91% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0991. 42 of the larger trades, 75.00%, were sells of 1,230,629 shares, 76.86% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0972.
The rest of the trades, 1,050,659 shares representing 39.62% of day's volume, went at a VWAP of $0.0977.
ARCA was again on the bid premarket at $0.0901 and out by 09:36.
On the sell side ARCA looked more like normal traders or investors today. Regardless of that, the "sell" percentage continues to grow as "buy" percentage shrinks.
ARCA entered the sell side around 10:19 with a $0.098 offer, when the best offer seemed to be $0.0956 (previously $0.0999) based on the "buys"  I had trouble keeping up today. With ATDF jostling with them, ARCA had moved to $0.0975 by 10:38. As BTIG and ATDF started jostling, getting down to $0.096, ARCA sat on their $0.0975 offer. ARCA left at 11:18 and returned at 11:21 with a $10 offer  sensible since trading was running in the $0.099x area at the time. At 12:14 they moved to $0.102, $0.099 by 13:33, $0.098 by 13:54, back to $0.102 by 14:05, ... and continued this $0.102/$0.09x bouncing until they left at 15:39. This looks a lot like normal trading or investing than most of what we've seen in the past.
In the nontraditional TA area, today's buy percentage, 29.7% was a big drop from 41.8%, 42.5%, 43.8% and 58.9% on prior days, and was accompanied by volume up 243.32% vs. yesterday's 12.35%. With VWAP increasing today by 0.93% ($0.0977 vs $0.0968) I continue to view this as a cautionary sign because of the new shares entering the market, IMO.
Daily short percentage moved higher today, but it still wasn't a big percentage at 27.26%, even though buy percentage was anemic all day, maxing out at 36.95% intraday. This fits with John's noting that new share issues have some backroom processing needed before they are converted to electron form and are controlled by the selling entities. So I think this adds supporting evidence that new shares entered the market today. This trend should go away in just a day or two and we should see the daily short percentage return to stronger correlation to buy percentage.
My original inflection point calculations are in disagreement with the price, VWAP and volume action, due to the sell percentage. The oneday changes moved from split three improved and three deteriorated to all weakening. Most are very small changes and no significance can be assigned, but the fiveday period may a larger move which may be significant. Aggregate change over five days again reversed from all improved to all weakening and the 25 and 50day periods had relatively large changes. Rates of change over those days moved from all improving to all weakening today.
The newer version, which attempts to be a bit less sensitive to only buy percentage and volume, seems to be accomplishing that goal. The one day changes had the two shortest periods improving while the longer periods are deteriorating. Now the four shorter periods are weakening while the two longest periods are up marginally, really essentially flat. The aggregate change over five days has all weaker periods. The rate of change has all periods weakening.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:30: 010000 shrs, 00.38% of vol, VWAP $0.0970, 000.0% buys
09:3009:48: 218500 shrs, 08.24% of vol, VWAP $0.0953, 006.9% buys
09:4910:02: 256501 shrs, 09.67% of vol, VWAP $0.0975, 062.0% buys
10:0310:15: 279029 shrs, 10.52% of vol, VWAP $0.0988, 008.6% buys
10:1810:55: 238700 shrs, 09.00% of vol, VWAP $0.0958, 014.2% buys
11:1311:39: 279723 shrs, 10.55% of vol, VWAP $0.0979, 039.9% buys
11:5212:28: 374975 shrs, 14.14% of vol, VWAP $0.0979, 026.7% buys
12:3313:11: 343500 shrs, 12.95% of vol, VWAP $0.0974, 039.4% buys
13:1714:17: 072023 shrs, 02.72% of vol, VWAP $0.0992, 093.1% buys
14:1814:43: 045000 shrs, 01.70% of vol, VWAP $0.0985, 046.7% buys
15:1315:39: 230037 shrs, 08.67% of vol, VWAP $0.0972, 000.0% buys
15:4215:52: 053500 shrs, 02.02% of vol, VWAP $0.0992, 063.6% buys
15:5315:59: 250400 shrs, 09.44% of vol, VWAP $0.0995, 034.7% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0950$0.0956: 512500 shrs, 19.33% of vol, VWAP $0.0954, 006.8% buys
$0.0960$0.0969: 318300 shrs, 12.00% of vol, VWAP $0.0964, 003.1% buys
$0.0970$0.0979: 700153 shrs, 26.40% of vol, VWAP $0.0973, 026.1% buys
$0.0980$0.0981: 280000 shrs, 10.56% of vol, VWAP $0.0980, 028.0% buys
$0.0990$0.0999: 664869 shrs, 25.07% of vol, VWAP $0.0995, 071.7% buys
$0.1000$0.1010: 176066 shrs, 06.64% of vol, VWAP $0.1001, 002.9% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
02/11 $0.1101 02.35% 24.2%
02/12 $0.1046 05.05% 46.6%
02/13 $0.1057 +01.12% 45.1%
02/14 $0.1020 03.55% 17.7%
02/18 $0.0999 02.08% 34.0%
02/19 $0.0981 01.75% 43.6%
02/20 $0.0954 02.76% 19.7%
02/21 $0.0940 01.50% 50.1%
02/24 $0.0927 01.30% 29.9%
02/25 $0.0936 +00.93% 47.9%
02/26 $0.0962 +02.80% 58.9%
02/27 $0.0966 +00.39% 43.8%
02/28 $0.0974 +00.82% 42.5%
03/03 $0.0968 00.66% 41.8%
03/04 $0.0977 +00.93% 29.7%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/03: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0956, x 80%: $0.0764
03/04: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764
Vol in K, for above days: 772.42 2,651.89.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
03/03/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 72, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 95000, Vol: 772417, AvTrSz: 10728
Min. Pr: 0.0952, Max Pr: 0.1050, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0968
# Buys, Shares: 28 323218, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0974
# Sells, Shares: 43 439199, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0963
# Unkn, Shares: 1 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0978
Buy:Sell 1:1.36 (41.85% "buys"), DlyShts 166018 (21.49%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 37.80%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0764 vs. $0.0766, $0.0767, $0.0768, $0.0768, $0.0769, $0.0772, $0.0775, $0.0777 and $0.0778 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.0774 vs. $0.0779, $0.0773, $0.0770, $0.0749, $0.0742, $0.0752, $0.0763, $0.0785 and $0.0799 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, 1.06%, 0.66%12.35% and 30.72% respectively. Price spread today was 10.29% vs. 9.14%, 5.26%, 7.86%, 15.44%, 6.59%, 9.23%, 8.42%, 3.59% and 6.40% on prior days.
We had three exceptional trades, all with the first six second of trading. Two were for $0.105 for 110 and 4K shares, and one of 1K shares at $0.10. Without these trades, which had no other trades reasonably close at any other time of the day, the high would be $0.098 (which had another trade at that price later in the day). This would move the high to $0.098 (5.68%) and the spread would be 2.94%.
On the traditional TA front, we had (ignoring the three small $0.10xx trades) a reasonable spread, a flat low and lower close (down 1.33% to $0.0962 from yesterday's $0.0975), a lower high (ignoring yesterday's single $0.1039, using $0.10 as the high, and ignoring today's $0.10xx trades using $0.098 as the high), and volume in a range that I think is reasonable. Unfortunately, even leaving the several exceptional trades in place, with a lower close and volume higher than yesterday's higher close, that would be read as a bearish indicator.
In contrast to yesterday, when most oscillators improved and the others stayed essentially flat, none improved today. Most were essentially flat and three, full stochastic, MFI and Williams %r, weakened by a noticeable amount.
The MACD has begun a noticeable climb towards neutral and the histogram is almost there.
Price (range) remained "stable" for the fifth day.
We again closed lower, at $0.0962, than our open of $0.098.
We managed to close, but just barely, above the newer shortterm descending resistance. I've mentioned yesterday "... we now need a "confirmation" of a second close above it. With the stuff I discuss ... I fully expect we'll get the confirmation". We did, but it certainly wasn't great. AFAICT, the line today is ~$0.0952, right at the day's low, and the close was above by only 1/10th of a penny. Maybe in our price range that's strong though  I don't know.
My expectation is that we'll ride atop that descending line, at best, for "a while". But with new shares in the PIPErs' hands, I could be completely wrong about that and we could drop below it again quickly. A pull away above would surprise me.
Larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 10 of 72 trades, 13.89%. These 375,700 shares were 48.64% of days volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0970. 4 of these trades, 40.00%, were buys of 225,000 shares, 59.89% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0974. 6 of the larger trades, 60.00%, were sells of 150,700 shares, 40.11% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0963.
The rest of the trades, 396,717 shares representing 51.36% of day's volume, went at a VWAP of $0.0965.
ARCA was again on the bid premarket, this time at $0.0901 and out by 09:35. They came back on the bid at 11:02 with a higher $0.091 bid, matching CDEL at the time. They were gone again for good at 11:33.
On the sell side ARCA was not as aggressive as seen in the past.
ARCA entered the sell side at 09:53, earlier than usual, with a $0.0972 offer, undercutting the best $0.0979 at the time. I didn't see any movement by ARCA prior to their exit one hour later at 10:57. They reentered at 11:41 with a $0.097 offer, besting ATDF's $0.0977 at the time. NITE joined them with a 95K offer at 11:54 and ARCA and ATDF tussled before ARCA exited again, at 12:25, after getting their offer down to $0.096. After NITE finished selling shares at $0.097, leaving their best offer at $0.107, ARCA reentered again at 12:38 with a $0.097 offer. I again saw no movement until their exit at 13:08. They did not reappear.
We had the return of lateday weakness today, beginning around 12:25 (see the breakdown by time). This accounted for roughly 62% of day's volume.
On the buy side, early action was strengthening with the bids moving up to $0.097 by 11:22, after opening at $0.0975 and dropping as low as $0.0952. For the rest of the day they stayed mostly around the $0.096 area with a brief low of $0.0955 and a high of $0.097 seen at 15:12, but remaining in the low $0.096 area mostly.
In the nontraditional TA area, today's buy percentage, 41.8%, was again weaker than the prior 42.5%, 43.8% and 58.9%, and was accompanied by volume up 12.35%. With VWAP decreasing today $0.0968 while volume moved higher we should see this as a cautionary sign.
ARCA continued the reduced aggressive behavior.
Daily short percentage made a big change today, dropping into the lower range of the recent trend. Maybe now we'll be able to see if we have old behavior, plummeting as low a singledigit percentages, or we have a new normal range apparently in place. Viewed in isolation, I would suggest lower VWAP and daily short sales based on the old behavior, but we'll have to wait and see.
My original inflection point calculations' oneday changes moved from essentially flat to split three improved and three deteriorated. These are very small changes and no significance can be assigned IMO. Aggregate change over five days reversed again from showing all periods weaker to all improved. Some changes "largish" and others "smallish". Rates of change over those days moved from all weakening yesterday to all improving today. Volatility remains as no solid trend has been seen for quite some time.
The newer version, which had only the fiveday period showing weakening while the others were essentially flat yesterday, now has the two shortest periods improving while the longer periods are deteriorating. The aggregate change over five days is the same, improving from yesterday's all weaker periods. The rate of change over those five days now has only one period improving. As with the original, volatility prevents appearance of a strong trend.
Yesterday I detailed my thoughts that the market had been set up for the new share issuance today, saying the stage was now set for next week's new shares to enter the market. I questioned when they would begin selling and suggested that looking at the charts around the start of each month might yield a clue. I couldn't pick any period as a representative pattern. The VWAP and trade volume today don't suggest they are in yet. Maybe tomorrow.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:30: 011599 shrs, 01.50% of vol, VWAP $0.1006, 056.9% buys
09:3710:02: 063268 shrs, 08.19% of vol, VWAP $0.0973, 044.7% buys
10:2211:03: 077600 shrs, 10.05% of vol, VWAP $0.0958, 014.2% buys
11:0311:33: 140000 shrs, 18.12% of vol, VWAP $0.0977, 089.3% buys
12:2512:38: 125000 shrs, 16.18% of vol, VWAP $0.0968, 080.0% buys
13:0013:57: 100900 shrs, 13.06% of vol, VWAP $0.0962, 020.7% buys
14:0415:00: 041530 shrs, 05.38% of vol, VWAP $0.0962, 007.3% buys
15:0615:15: 055520 shrs, 07.19% of vol, VWAP $0.0969, 021.5% buys
15:3015:53: 157000 shrs, 20.33% of vol, VWAP $0.0964, 010.5% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.0952$0.0956: 066600 shrs, 08.62% of vol, VWAP $0.0955, 000.0% buys
$0.0960$0.0965: 295100 shrs, 38.20% of vol, VWAP $0.0961, 008.3% buys
$0.0970$0.0979: 397118 shrs, 51.41% of vol, VWAP $0.0973, 073.1% buys
$0.0980$0.0980: 008499 shrs, 01.10% of vol, VWAP $0.0980, 041.2% buys
$0.1000$0.1050: 005100 shrs, 00.66% of vol, VWAP $0.1040, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
02/10 $0.1128 02.17% 26.6%
02/11 $0.1101 02.35% 24.2%
02/12 $0.1046 05.05% 46.6%
02/13 $0.1057 +01.12% 45.1%
02/14 $0.1020 03.55% 17.7%
02/18 $0.0999 02.08% 34.0%
02/19 $0.0981 01.75% 43.6%
02/20 $0.0954 02.76% 19.7%
02/21 $0.0940 01.50% 50.1%
02/24 $0.0927 01.30% 29.9%
02/25 $0.0936 +00.93% 47.9%
02/26 $0.0962 +02.80% 58.9%
02/27 $0.0966 +00.39% 43.8%
02/28 $0.0974 +00.82% 42.5%
03/03 $0.0968 00.66% 41.8%
Using the new 80% calculation 1/3 onward. This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/03: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0956, x 80%: $0.0764
Vol in K, for above days: 772.42.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
Disclosure: I am long AXPW.
Additional disclosure: I am very experimental and sometimes do my TA in nontraditional fashions. Keep this in mind when considering anything I post and be sure and consult other sources and do your due diligence. I'm barely responsible for myself and certainly not responsible for anyone else or their actions. :)
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