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AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 12/01/2014 $AXPW http://seekingalpha.com/p/237ad Nov 29, 2014

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AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 04/01/2014 3 comments
Links to blogs older than the 01/01/2014 version, PIPE discussions, one year charts will be found only in that and older blogs. Most historical short sales related stuff has also been chopped.
In the below chart the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!
(rightclick and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)
Next are modified inflection point calculation charts bracketing a price chart for comparison. The false bullish moves and contrary moves of the 5day are gone.
The two identically calculated inflection points are calculated differently from the original above. I have two different presentations of this newer version. The top one has all periods on the same scale. The bottom one has longer periods on the left scale and shorter periods on the right scale. The hope is that shorter period changes will be easier to spot. More work to do, this is a start, hopefully.
Other changes I want to try are still waiting for me to work on them.
(rightclick and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)
Older stuff for "2013 Dly Sht % of 'sells' values", Weekly 85% price summaries going back to 6/14/2012, and some daytoday VWAP changes stuff going back to 10/09 are available in AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 10/1/2013.
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'", inflection point calculation values, and endofweek 80% (was 85%) PIPE price factors are now only in the latest daily comment.
The PIPE agreement was amended, changing the 85% calculation to 80%, among other minor things. See AXION POWER INTERNATIONAL, INC., FORM 8K, Filed 01/03/14 for the Period Ending 01/02/14.
04/07/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 121, MinTrSz: 25, MaxTrSz: 120125, Vol: 1366662, AvTrSz: 11295
Min. Pr: 0.1800, Max Pr: 0.1940, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1834
# Buys, Shares: 51 521478, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1857
# Sells, Shares: 69 830184, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1821
# Unkn, Shares: 1 15000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1825
Buy:Sell 1:1.59 (38.16% "buys"), DlyShts 379098 (27.74%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 45.66%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0865 vs. $0.0848, $0.0831, $0.0819, $0.0816, $0.0812, $0.0807, $0.0800, $0.0792 and $0.0784 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1468 vs. $0.1505, $0.1522, $0.1399, $0.1332, $0.1338, $0.1337 vs. $0.1261, $0.1361 and $0.1359 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 1.69%, 1.52%, 2.52%, 31.96% and 56.87% respectively. Price spread today was 7.78% vs. 11.30%, 14.22%, 5.88%, 19.76%, 14.20%, 14.23%, 10.67%, 6.71% and 9.20% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 32 of the 121 trades, 26.45%. These 845,817 shares were 61.89% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1834. 8 of these trades, 25.00%, were buys of 281,950 shares, 33.33% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1859. 23 of the larger trades, 71.88%, were sells of 548,867 shares, 64.89% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1821. 1 unknown trade of 15,000 shares, 1.77% of the larger trade volume, occurred at $0.1825.
The other 89 trades, 73.55% of the day's trades, traded 520,845 shares, 38.11% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1836. 43 trades, 48.31%, were buys and accounted for 239,528 shares, 45.99% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1854. 46 trades, 51.69%, were sells and accounted for 239,528 shares, 45.99% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1854.
As stated yesterday, longterm I'm still more optimistic and I said shortterm, it looked like the "pop" was ending and we'd get to shortly see what "normalcy" develops. Still too soon to tell, but we've had two consecutive days of lower highs, VWAPs, and volumes. With buy percentage down substantially today as average trade size increased I do believe we'll be shortly testing the strength of $0.18 as a support level. I believe it will fail to hold. This conclusion is influenced by the reduced short sale percentage today. I've mentioned in the past that excessively low short sales percentage is often correlated with lower price action. Today's short percentage wasn't earth shattering, but it's low enough that I suspect lower pricing and even lower short sales percentage to show up. Buy percentage should also taper off.
There was no lastminute price manipulation attempt. This is the first day since 3/31 that this has been the case. The prices leading into the close in the last twenty minutes were normal in size, were all sells and were near ranges of prices leading into the period. To be fair, regardless of my TFH, I guess I could assert that someone was trying to manipulate price lower so they could buy. But the trading trend did not suggest that to me.
This breaks our string of six consecutive higher closes.
Yesterday on the traditional TA front I said it looks like any upward pressure is abating ... again.
Full stochastic exited overbought territory and crossed below its average yesterday and continued to fall today. RSI, which had remained essentially flat even with a small uptick to ~69.8 just below overbought, weakened noticeably today to 65.21, approaching neutral territory.
The Bollingers , which I said was near ending their convergence, is near now with the lower limit going flat (.1546 to .1545 today) and the upper limit rate of descent is steady at "medium" now.
Momentum got remained essentially flat just above neutral, dropping 1/100the to 1.097 from 1.107. ADX related continued to give up the wee bit of strengthening displayed last Thursday. The rest of the oscillators are weakening.
There's still now sure sign of lateday weakness or strength. This is the third day where I can't see much to lead to a conclusion of "normal" behavior.
My original experimental inflection point calculations have oneday changes flipped big time from all six improved to all weaker. But the 5day period took a BIG swing and says the price is going to tank. It went from +1.5 to 134.05, a (9018.7%) change. The change over five days moved from five improved two consecutive days to four weakened and only two improved. The rate of change over five days, which began deteriorating yesterday with one period improving while the other five weakened, now has two improved and four weaker. I suspect this will get much more negative tomorrow
The newer version oneday changes, which yesterday deteriorated badly flipping from all periods showing improvement to all periods weakening with nonminor moves, continues to weaken but at least the moves aren't so large. They are not minor either. The change over five days which flipped from all six periods improved slightly from all periods weakened by consequential magnitudes to five weakened and the magnitude of changes were generally smaller. It's the same for the average change over those days.
The newer version's chart pattern, which yesterday fell of the trend that had begun to form a pattern suggesting a rise, today increased it's weakening bias. I yesterday said maybe the exit from the pop was occurring and thought alertness was warranted. Today does suggest we should don life savers.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:43: 048300 shrs, 03.53% of vol, VWAP $0.1907, 100.0% buys
09:3010:02: 076080 shrs, 05.57% of vol, VWAP $0.1889, 100.0% buys
10:2510:43: 045000 shrs, 03.29% of vol, VWAP $0.1867, 044.4% buys
11:2312:58: 261123 shrs, 19.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1856, 065.5% buys
13:0013:25: 241200 shrs, 17.65% of vol, VWAP $0.1824, 024.8% buys
13:2613:37: 195000 shrs, 14.27% of vol, VWAP $0.1839, 053.3% buys
13:4214:15: 224725 shrs, 16.44% of vol, VWAP $0.1815, 001.9% buys
14:1815:27: 260934 shrs, 19.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1815, 021.9% buys
15:2915:33: 036600 shrs, 02.68% of vol, VWAP $0.1836, 063.7% buys
15:3815:53: 026000 shrs, 01.90% of vol, VWAP $0.1827, 023.1% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1800$0.1820: 621121 shrs, 45.45% of vol, VWAP $0.1811, 006.5% buys
$0.1825$0.1840: 229473 shrs, 16.79% of vol, VWAP $0.1836, 042.1% buys
$0.1850$0.1860: 392968 shrs, 28.75% of vol, VWAP $0.1855, 066.6% buys
$0.1870$0.1880: 063800 shrs, 04.67% of vol, VWAP $0.1872, 100.0% buys
$0.1883$0.1900: 042000 shrs, 03.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1889, 100.0% buys
$0.1940$0.1940: 017300 shrs, 01.27% of vol, VWAP $0.1940, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
03/18 $0.1707 +00.33% 55.8%
03/19 $0.1692 00.86% 75.3%
03/20 $0.1674 01.08% 75.6%
03/21 $0.1704 +01.78% 44.5%
03/24 $0.1692 00.71% 27.9%
03/25 $0.1699 +00.42% 57.8%
03/26 $0.1702 +00.16% 30.5%
03/27 $0.1576 07.40% 29.3%
03/28 $0.1672 +06.09% 54.2%
03/31 $0.1673 +00.05% 38.7%
04/01 $0.1664 00.48% 54.8%
04/02 $0.1748 +05.04% 34.3%
04/03 %0.1902 +08.79% 50.5%
04/04 $0.1882 01.07% 54.1%
04/07 $0.1834 02.52% 38.2%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
04/07: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1081, x 80%: $0.0865
Vol in K, for above days: 1,366.66.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are omitted from the concentrator.
Week ending values related to the PIPE 85% (80% 1/3/14 forward) share pricing:
02/07: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0973, x 80%: $0.0779 VWAP $0.1153
02/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0973, x 80%: $0.0779 VWAP $0.1020
02/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0966, x 80%: $0.0772 VWAP $0.0940
02/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0957, x 80%: $0.0766 VWAP $0.0974
03/07: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764 VWAP $0.1847
03/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0956, x 80%: $0.0765 VWAP $0.1605
03/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0966, x 80%: $0.0773 VWAP $0.1704
03/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1008, x 80%: $0.0807 VWAP $0.1672
04/04: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1060, x 80%: $0.0848 VWAP $0.1882
Vol, in thousands, for above weeks: 6,742, 7,753 (4 day wk), 5,675, 18,935, 7,805, 2,556, 5,134, 9,037.
On my ORIGINAL inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
 1day change 
03/27 199.4% 159.3% +05.4% 04.4% 01.5% 01.1%
03/28 +05.7% 106.1% 00.6% +05.2% +02.2% +00.5%
03/31 +03.3% 89.7% +26.2% +00.7% +01.4% 00.4%
04/01 +10.0% +13.5% +09.0% +01.5% +02.2% +00.5%
04/02 +16.0% 37.5% 16.8% 03.4% +01.3% 00.4%
04/03 +87.9% 05.8% +06.7% +03.3% +00.2% +00.3%
04/04 +101.2% +13.0% +09.8% +08.6% +02.1% +00.6%
04/07 9018.7% 06.1% 07.4% 00.5% +00.1% +00.1%
 5day change 
03/27 071.2% 201.3% +000.7% 198.6% 126.9% 374.2%
03/28 +019.5% +019.2% 011.6% +096.0% +095.0% +038.7%
03/31 +032.7% 149.7% +002.9% 435.3% +3976.2% +047.1%
04/01 +006.8% 000.8% 009.1% +392.6% +140.7% 020.2%
04/02 +060.3% 024.4% 010.1% 104.1% +052.6% 094.0%
04/03 +357.2% +038.2% 001.5% +6873.1% +031.3% +169.5%
04/04 +003.0% +043.4% +029.5% +038.6% 003.7% +016.3%
04/07 012.7% +071.5% 091.2% 010.8% 017.9% +076.2%
 5day rate of change 
03/27 014.7% 148.5% +005.0% 097.5% 022.4% 198.0%
03/28 +019.6% +031.5% +007.2% +039.4% +005.4% +023.0%
03/31 +066.3% 032.9% +000.1% +036.3% +045.1% +083.7%
04/01 +017.2% +026.4% 004.4% +074.9% +061.8% 145.1%
04/02 +201.3% 017.1% +076.9% 107.0% +203.2% 024.6%
04/03 +294.6% +083.9% 007.2% +361.0% +204.0% +236.1%
04/04 011.8% +086.3% +124.4% 011.0% 012.5% 019.7%
04/07 024.8% +2376.7% 1369.9% 003.4% 039.8% +014.5%
On my NEWER inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
 1day change 
03/27 266.35% 249.88% 121.93% 067.45% 039.28% 035.01%
03/28 +023.35% +024.30% +047.26% +035.54% +025.87% +023.34%
03/31 +005.12% 090.73% +022.26% +002.73% +003.33% +001.26%
04/01 +009.18% +012.51% +007.32% +000.81% +001.83% 000.41%
04/02 +046.14% +008.89% +074.98% +035.60% +026.52% +021.97%
04/03 +240.98% +105.49% +657.31% +105.58% +053.71% +043.72%
04/04 011.37% 406.83% 052.69% 803.48% 061.29% 044.04%
04/07 075.36% 476.66% 166.30% 166.29% 045.06% 033.16%
 5day change 
03/27 082.77% 1628.32% 594.76% 284.09% 298.18% 222.30%
03/28 +027.43% +049.40% +082.76% +071.16% +075.07% +077.17%
03/31 +036.12% 125.12% +175.10% +078.90% +125.24% +132.15%
04/01 +005.22% 004.51% 085.23% 027.78% 032.28% 142.66%
04/02 +088.61% +007.84% +3768.90% +685.14% +1543.07% +1914.63%
04/03 +1914.17% +158.48% +330.30% +419.99% +278.37% +351.16%
04/04 019.35% 047.04% 049.14% 052.32% 053.29% 057.09%
04/07 030.90% 042.17% 068.66% 057.22% 055.87% 059.15%
 5day rate of change 
03/27 019.18% 058.08% 038.23% 055.49% 042.88% 052.62%
03/28 +021.88% +020.46% +017.57% +023.74% +017.69% +019.90%
03/31 +074.54% +030.81% +075.37% +085.98% +087.01% +100.44%
04/01 +028.21% +041.72% +061.63% +155.84% +169.29% +3738.22%
04/02 +276.36% +008.56% +470.28% +451.79% +437.04% +209.64%
04/03 +283.75% +241.20% +373.38% +370.53% +283.60% +305.65%
04/04 023.58% 048.47% 057.18% 057.92% 059.26% 062.72%
04/07 033.50% +057.91% 078.90% 061.64% 067.50% 071.69%
Rolling 5day ORIGINAL inflection point calculation aggregate change:
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
03/27 5 Day 2716.12 0841.40 +1415.74 0557.63 0243.81 0597.11
03/28 5 Day 2186.57 0680.24 +1251.77 0022.20 0012.21 0365.95
03/31 5 Day 1470.71 1698.39 +1287.94 0118.86 +0473.25 0193.71
04/01 5 Day 1370.58 1711.82 +1171.29 +0347.82 +1139.21 0232.84
04/02 5 Day 0543.77 2130.30 +1053.51 0014.10 +1738.23 0451.73
04/03 5 Day +1398.67 1317.44 +1037.93 +0955.08 +2282.44 +0314.08
04/04 5 Day +1441.06 0745.51 +1343.91 +1323.38 +2198.20 +0365.43
04/07 5 Day +1258.29 0212.42 +0117.91 +1180.95 +1804.59 +0643.75
Average change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
03/27 918.17 754.86 315.12 578.22 811.01 349.48
03/28 738.58 516.73 292.38 350.28 766.91 269.09
03/31 248.60 686.86 292.10 223.08 421.39 043.85
04/01 205.87 505.45 304.93 056.00 160.98 107.47
04/02 +208.55 592.13 070.46 115.90 +166.20 133.89
04/03 +822.96 095.21 075.56 +302.54 +505.25 +182.24
04/04 +725.53 013.05 +018.43 +269.12 +442.08 +146.28
04/07 +545.80 +297.20 234.01 +259.96 +266.27 +167.49
Rolling 5day NEWER inflection point calculation aggregate change:
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
03/27 5 Day 0509.31 0241.08 0441.54 0906.61 1334.56 2324.42
03/28 5 Day 0369.63 0121.99 0076.11 0261.43 0332.74 0530.72
03/31 5 Day 0236.12 0274.63 +0057.16 0055.17 +0083.99 +0170.65
04/01 5 Day 0223.79 0287.01 +0008.44 0070.49 +0056.88 0072.80
04/02 5 Day 0025.48 0264.52 +0326.63 +0412.48 +0934.53 +1321.14
04/03 5 Day +0462.25 +0154.69 +1405.48 +2144.88 +3536.01 +5960.41
04/04 5 Day +0372.80 +0081.93 +0714.85 +1022.69 +1651.75 +2557.50
04/07 5 Day +0257.59 +0047.38 +0224.03 +0437.45 +0728.90 +1044.82
Average change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
03/27 0201.10 0191.14 0270.55 0393.67 0638.11 0971.10
03/28 0157.10 0152.04 0223.01 0300.23 0525.20 0777.84
03/31 0039.99 0105.20 0054.92 0042.09 0068.24 +0003.44
04/01 0028.71 0061.31 0021.07 +0023.51 +0047.28 +0131.92
04/02 +0050.63 0056.06 +0078.04 +0129.70 +0253.94 +0408.47
04/03 +0194.31 +0079.15 +0369.40 +0610.30 +0974.11 +1656.97
04/04 +0148.48 +0040.78 +0158.19 +0256.82 +0396.90 +0617.64
04/07 +0098.74 +0064.40 +0033.37 +0098.52 +0128.98 +0174.84
Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
============ 2013 ===============
Mon. 12/30: 10.02% 6.65%
============ 2014 ===============
Mon. 01/27 70.16% 9.32% 52.17% 23.63% 101.56%
Mon. 02/03 111.49% 65.83% 50.74% 39.44% 45.93%
Mon. 02/10 26.53% 34.19% 60.92% 50.15% 27.28%
Tue. 02/18 44.83% 53.95% 25.30% 46.39%
Mon. 02/24 23.26% 77.84% 112.52% 61.42% 60.59%
Mon. 03/03 37.80% 39.30% 84.26% 47.35% 65.02%
Mon. 03/10 49.87% 81.60% 16.78% 69.33% 161.53%
Mon. 03/17 119.24% 54.59% 197.55% 335.39% 44.23%
Mon. 03/24 36.88% 97.94% 50.67% 44.05% 111.73%
Mon. 03/28 54.06% 89.25% 33.83% 65.59% 97.05%
Mon. 04/07 45.66%
============ 2013 ===============
Nov Avg: 28.42%, min: 05.99%, max: 050.60%
Dec Avg: 29.22%, min: 02.10%, max: 063.82%
============ 2014 ===============
Jan Avg: 54.66%, min: 09.32%, max: 130.29%
Feb Avg: 50.44%, min: 00.28%, max: 112.52%
Mar Avg: 85.68%, min: 16.78%, max: 335.39%
Apr Avg: 66.28%, min: 33.83%, max: 097.05%
0407 Vol 1366662, Sht 0379098 27.74% LHC 0.1800 0.1940 0.1810 b:s 1:1.59
0404 Vol 2004991, Sht 0879049 43.84% LHC 0.1770 0.1970 0.1860 b:s 1.20:1 [132]
0403 Vol 2637342, Sht 0804253 30.49% LHC 0.1751 0.2000 0.1800 b:s 1.09:1
0402 Vol 1086320, Sht 0247942 22.82% LHC 0.1700 0.1800 0.1797 b:s 1:1.91[131]
0401 Vol 2487682, Sht 1004392 40.37% LHC 0.1503 0.1800 0.1789 b:s 1.21:1
0331 Vol 0716801, Sht 0258136 36.01% LHC 0.1570 0.1793 0.1698 b:s 1:1.57[130]
0328 Vol 0614691, Sht 0314460 51.16% LHC 0.1567 0.1790 0.1622 b:s 1.18:1
0327 Vol 1980546, Sht 0616650 31.14% LHC 0.1500 0.1660 0.1582 b:s 1:2.41
0326 Vol 1410109, Sht 0496517 35.21% LHC 0.1640 0.1750 0.1661 b:s 1:2.28
0325 Vol 0630326, Sht 0260578 41.34% LHC 0.1630 0.1780 0.1699 b:s 1.37:1
0324 Vol 0493200, Sht 0132511 26.87% LHC 0.1620 0.1800 0.1700 b:s 1:2.59
0321 Vol 0338960, Sht 0082000 24.19% LHC 0.1650 0.1750 0.1703 b:s 1:1.23
0320 Vol 0360913, Sht 0255063 70.67% LHC 0.1621 0.1700 0.1650 b:s 3.59:1
0319 Vol 0152034, Sht 0074149 48.77% LHC 0.1550 0.1749 0.1680 b:s 3.05:1
0318 Vol 0492742, Sht 0117468 23.84% LHC 0.1550 0.1765 0.1680 b:s 1.28:1
0317 Vol 1210989, Sht 0454724 37.55% LHC 0.1630 0.1800 0.1675 b:s 2.18:1
0314 Vol 0775124, Sht 0296250 38.22% LHC 0.1530 0.1699 0.1630 b:s 3.23:1
0313 Vol 0238513, Sht 0053733 22.53% LHC 0.1532 0.1629 0.1598 b:s 2.08:1
0312 Vol 1203494, Sht 0146037 12.13% LHC 0.1500 0.1750 0.1600 b:s 1:2.65
0311 Vol 0950331, Sht 0420954 44.30% LHC 0.1726 0.1870 0.1752 b:s 1:1.22
0310 Vol 4605367, Sht 1306110 28.36% LHC 0.1602 0.2310 0.1800 b:s 1:1.31[129]
0307 Vol 5359392, Sht 1573661 29.36% LHC 0.1500 0.2199 0.2000 b:s 1.20:1
0306 Vol 5867182, Sht 1529792 26.07% LHC 0.1330 0.1510 0.1500 b:s 1:1.22[128]
0305 Vol 4198959, Sht 1718581 40.93% LHC 0.0999 0.1335 0.1335 b:s 1.05:1
0304 Vol 2651888, Sht 0722884 27.26% LHC 0.0950 0.1010 0.0999 b:s 1:2.33
0303 Vol 0772417, Sht 0166018 21.49% LHC 0.0952 0.1050 0.0962 b:s 1:1.36
[128] There were 5 premarket trades for 85K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 5,867,182 to 5,952,182 and would lower the short percentage from 26.07% to 25.70%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 1,529,792 to 1,614,792 and the short percentage would be 27.13%.
[129] There were 4 premarket trades for 32.5K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 4,605,367 to 4,637,867 and would lower the short percentage from 28.36% to 28.16%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 1,306,110 to 1,338,610 and the short percentage would be 28.86%.
[130] There was 1 afterhours trade for 70K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 716,801 to 786,801 and would lower the short percentage from 36.01% to 32.81%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 258,136 to 328,136 and the short percentage would be 41.71%.
[131] There were 5 premarket trades for 30K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,086,320 to 1,116,320 and would lower the short percentage from 22.82% to 22.21%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 247,942 to 277,942 and the short percentage would be 24.90%.
[132] There was 1 premarket trade for 3.5K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 2,004,991 to 2,008,491 and would lower the short percentage from 42.84% to 43.77%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 879,049 to 882,549 and the short percentage would be 43.94%.
04/04/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 191, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 87500, Vol: 2008491, AvTrSz: 10516
Min. Pr: 0.1770, Max Pr: 0.1970, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1882
# Buys, Shares: 95 1086399, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1895
# Sells, Shares: 95 905725, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1866
# Unkn, Shares: 1 16367, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1827
Buy:Sell 1.20:1 (54.09% "buys"), DlyShts 879049 (43.77%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 97.05%
There was 1 premarket trade for 3.5K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 2,004,991 to 2,008,491 and would lower the short percentage from 42.84% to 43.77%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 879,049 to 882,549 and the short percentage would be 43.94%.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0848 vs. $0.0831, $0.0819, $0.0816, $0.0812, $0.0807, $0.0800, $0.0792, $0.0784 and $0.0777 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1505 vs. $0.1522, $0.1399, $0.1332, $0.1338, $0.1337 vs. $0.1261, $0.1361, $0.1359 and $0.1353 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 1.09%, 1.50%, 1.07%, 23.84% and 9.30% respectively. Price spread today was 11.30% vs. 14.22%, 5.88%, 19.76%, 14.20%, 14.23%, 10.67%, 6.71%, 9.20% and 11.11% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 41 of the 191 trades, 21.47%. These 1,116,950 shares were 55.61% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1892. 22 of these trades, 53.66%, were buys of 676,833 shares, 60.60% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1905. 18 of the larger trades, 43.90%, were sells of 423,750 shares, 37.94% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1875. One unknown trade of 16,367, 1.47% of the larger trade volume, occurred at $0.1827.
The other 150 trades, 78.53% of the day's trades, traded 891,541 shares, 44.39% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1869. 73 trades, 48.67%, were buys and accounted for 409,566 shares, 45.94% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1879. 77 trades, 51.33%, were sells and accounted for 481,975 shares, 54.06% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1859.
Longterm I'm still more optimistic. Shortterm, it looks like the "pop" is ending and we'll get to shortly see what "normalcy" develops.
As with every day since 3/31, there were some "last minute" trades that raised our closing price from what would have been suggested by normal trading heading into the closing few minutes. Today one trade of 400 shares at 15:58:10 took a potential, and more reasonable based on activity leading up to that trade, close from $0.1830$0.1835 to $0.1860. It was, of course, a "buy" that hit the offer, as usual.
This extends our string of consecutive higher close to six, starting from 3/28. One or two, IIRC, appeared "real" to me and the others "constructed".
On the traditional TA front, it looks like any upward pressure is abating ... again.
Full stochastic remains exited overbought territory and crossed below it average. RSI remains essentially flat even with a small uptick to ~69.8, just below overbought.
The Bollingers look to be near ending their convergence, which has been happening at a constantly reducing rate. Momentum got a very small bump up, but remains essentially flat just above neutral at ~1.11. ADX related gave up yesterday's wee bit of strengthening. The rest of the oscillators remain mixed.
I have mentioned that lateday strength seems the M.O. now, rather than lateday weakness. Two days back we saw neither weakness nor strength later in the day and yesterday day we saw weakness. Today didn't show much strength late, but I can't say it was strong either. Look at the trading breakdown by time. Still can't say if trend is changing or just displaying some indecision.
My original experimental inflection point calculations have oneday changes improved from four periods improved to all six improved, but only marginally. The change over five days continues with five improved for the second day. The rate of change over five days is deteriorating with one period improving while the other five weaken.
The newer version oneday changes, deteriorated badly flipping from all periods showing improvement to all periods weakening. They were not minor moves either. Ditto for the change over five days which flipped from all six periods improved for two consecutive days to all periods weakened by consequential magnitudes. It's the same for the average change over those days which had all periods showing improvement.
The newer version's chart pattern, which had begun to form the pattern suggesting a rise is coming, fell of that trend today. I had mentioned one or two more days should get us out of the "pop" period and today maybe that's occurring. I would think today's deterioration warrants alertness, but doesn't yet suggest we should don life savers  we know we've had volatility for a long time and have seen occurrences of dips before substantial rises.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
08:1209:33: 030166 shrs, 01.50% of vol, VWAP $0.1801, 015.5% buys
09:3410:15: 056500 shrs, 02.81% of vol, VWAP $0.1795, 082.3% buys
10:1510:30: 072589 shrs, 03.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1816, 053.3% buys
10:3110:44: 108133 shrs, 05.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1866, 063.0% buys
10:4811:09: 118500 shrs, 05.90% of vol, VWAP $0.1870, 051.5% buys
11:1911:41: 122998 shrs, 06.12% of vol, VWAP $0.1869, 034.1% buys
11:4212:13: 241675 shrs, 12.03% of vol, VWAP $0.1887, 077.0% buys
12:1912:34: 078500 shrs, 03.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1885, 066.9% buys
12:3912:50: 191175 shrs, 09.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1937, 067.0% buys
12:5113:05: 235575 shrs, 11.73% of vol, VWAP $0.1911, 046.7% buys
13:1513:57: 361450 shrs, 18.00% of vol, VWAP $0.1918, 056.4% buys
13:5814:33: 160500 shrs, 07.99% of vol, VWAP $0.1861, 054.5% buys
14:4815:16: 060000 shrs, 02.99% of vol, VWAP $0.1834, 000.0% buys
15:1815:41: 107000 shrs, 05.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1830, 039.0% buys
15:5015:58: 063730 shrs, 03.17% of vol, VWAP $0.1822, 024.2% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1770$0.1771: 010000 shrs, 00.50% of vol, VWAP $0.1770, 000.0% buys
$0.1800$0.1849: 479730 shrs, 23.89% of vol, VWAP $0.1823, 034.3% buys
$0.1850$0.1899: 695561 shrs, 34.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1875, 060.6% buys
$0.1900$0.1949: 743200 shrs, 37.00% of vol, VWAP $0.1919, 059.2% buys
$0.1960$0.1970: 080000 shrs, 03.98% of vol, VWAP $0.1963, 075.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
03/17 $0.1701 +06.02% 68.5%
03/18 $0.1707 +00.33% 55.8%
03/19 $0.1692 00.86% 75.3%
03/20 $0.1674 01.08% 75.6%
03/21 $0.1704 +01.78% 44.5%
03/24 $0.1692 00.71% 27.9%
03/25 $0.1699 +00.42% 57.8%
03/26 $0.1702 +00.16% 30.5%
03/27 $0.1576 07.40% 29.3%
03/28 $0.1672 +06.09% 54.2%
03/31 $0.1673 +00.05% 38.7%
04/01 $0.1664 00.48% 54.8%
04/02 $0.1748 +05.04% 34.3%
04/03 %0.1902 +08.79% 50.5%
04/04 $0.1882 01.07% 54.1%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/31: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1015, x 80%: $0.0812
04/01: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1021, x 80%: $0.0816
04/02: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1024, x 80%: $0.0819
04/03: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1038, x 80%: $0.0831
04/04: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1060, x 80%: $0.0848
Vol in K, for above days: 786.80 2,487.68 1,116.32 2,637.34 2,008.49.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
04/03/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 269, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 95000, Vol: 2637342, AvTrSz: 9804
Min. Pr: 0.1751, Max Pr: 0.2000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1902
# Buys, Shares: 151 1332918, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1920
# Sells, Shares: 112 1226224, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1882
# Unkn, Shares: 6 78200, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1905
Buy:Sell 1.09:1 (50.54% "buys"), DlyShts 804253 (30.49%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 65.59%
From John Petersen's article of 2/2/2014, "Axion Power: Out Of The PIPE And Into The Light  Part II":
===========================================================
... the February trueup and the March preinstallment will be based on trading prices during December and January while the April preinstallment will be based on trading prices during January and February.
Over the last seven months it didn't matter if the PIPE investors drove the price down through aggressive selling tactics because the trueup requirements simply increased the number of shares issuable at the next payment date. That dynamic will not apply over the next two months because the potential trueup value on the 10.5 million shares issuable for the March and April preinstallments can't possibly offset the related cost of selling enough shares to depress the price further. Since it appears that the PIPE investors have already recovered their investment and fund managers usually receive a bonus equal to 20% or 25% of the profits generated by their funds, indiscriminate selling that reduces total proceeds from future stock sales will directly and negatively impact the managers' bonuses.
The bottom line is my core conclusions from Friday remain intact:
 After giving effect to known stock issuances, the current principal balance of the PIPE debt is insignificant; and
 The underlying contracts create a dynamic where there is no further incentive for the PIPE investors to pound stock into the market without regard to price".
===========================================================
I highlight this because there seems to be an approximate correlation between the PIPEer behavior predicted by John and changes in trend on certain parts of both my original and newer experimental inflection point calculation charts.
On my original version's chart note the change in trend that began to appear around the 2/24/14 timeframe.
On my newer version's charts, note there are early signs of a change in that same timeframe but, more importantly I think, is the change which appears to get underway around 3/17 for the 100 and 200day period calculations. I've added some shortterm lines and a large ellipsis to highlight this change and track the trend visually.
Another change that seems unrelated to John's articles is a change in the 50day period calculation on my newer version. This is highlighted on the chart in the small ellipsis and occurs around the end of the year.
The net effect, for me, is a more optimistic outlook for pps behavior. But there's more to it than that ...
John may disagree on this, but the return of daily short sales trends to what *I* believe to be normal behavior, rather than going to low singledigit percentages as he looks for, adds to my optimism. Look at the chart with daily volume and short sales, along with averages and trend lines, and note the change in trends which I briefly mentioned "might be occurring" off and on over some weeks. Note especially the change in the 10day short percentage average that began around 2/24. Note also what's happened to the other averages since and to prices beginning around the same time.
Similar changes in buy percentage can be seen, also beginning around 2/24.
Only average trade sizes *seems* contrary to this trend. But it's not if one considers the "standard" present sizes of prices <= $0.10 (10K) and 5K for higher prices. And recently as we exceeded $0.20 the "standard" has gone to 2.5K quite often.
There's only one other thing I want to touch on today at any length.
I said yesterday "My last concern is that two consecutive days have had lastminute trades that were all buys and all substantially(?) higher than the trading range just prior to those trades. In each case they moved the closing price higher than it would otherwise have been. In dollar terms they were all small and reminiscent of behavior in the past that I felt were attempts to manipulate the market. In this case, today a close lower was converted to a close higher". That pattern continues with today's activity ...
There were three "last minute" trades that raised our closing price from what would have been $0.1770. These were all buys at 15:57, 15:58 and 15:59, for 5K, 10K and 5K respectively at $0.1820, $0.1790 and $0.18.
As I've mentioned regarding these sorts of trades, which have occurred every day beginning with 3/31, this has no effect on my metrics but it does affect what appears on traditional TA charts and plays into consideration because the closing price affects such as the Bollinger bands and other TA oscillators.
Without them our close would be below the "artificial" (my opinion) close of 4/2, but above what would have been the "real" (my opinion) close of $0.1750.
I believe this activity is designed to manipulate the market perception.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0831 vs. $0.0819, $0.0816, $0.0812, $0.0807, $0.0800, $0.0792, $0.0784, $0.0777 and $0.0773 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1522 vs. $0.1399, $0.1332, $0.1338, $0.1337 vs. $0.1261, $0.1361, $0.1359, $0.1353 and $0.1363 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 3.00%, 11.11%, 8.79%, 136.25% and 224.37% respectively. Price spread today was 14.22% vs. 5.88%, 19.76%, 14.20%, 14.23%, 10.67%, 6.71%, 9.20%, 11.11% and 6.06% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 45 of the 269 trades, 16.73%. These 1,303,599 shares were 49.43% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1909. 22 of these trades, 48.89%, were buys of 624,000 shares, 47.87% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1933. 22 of the larger trades, 48.89%, were sells of 614,599 shares, 47.15% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1884. One unknown trade of 65K, 4.99% of the larger trade volume, occurred at $0.1910.
The other 224 trades, 83.27% of the day's trades, traded 1,333,743 shares, 50.57% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1896. 129 trades, 57.59%, were buys and accounted for 708,918 shares, 53.15% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1909. 90 trades, 40.18%, were sells and accounted for 611,625 shares, 45.86% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1881. 5 trades, 2.23% of the smaller trades, accounted for 13,200 shares, 0.99% of the smaller trades volume, and traded at $0.1879.
Combined with yesterday's top right at my newlydrawn horizontal resistance of $0.18 and the close just below (even though "artificial" IMO), we now have a close of $0.18, right at that line. So it's "resistance seems well confirmed now.
Full stochastic remains in overbought territory, albeit barely, while the RSI remains essentially flat, having moved over these last three days only from ~66.8 to ~67.1 and now 67.25.
The Bollingers continue converging at a reducing rate and momentum has flattened (~1.098, ~1.073 and today's ~1.0714  essentially at neutral). ADX related strengthened a wee bit. The rest of the oscillators are mixed with accum/distr. and Williams %R weaker, MFI continuing higher, and the MACD still well above neutral and flattening and the histogram at zero at flattening.
I have mentioned that lateday strength seems the M.O. now, rather than lateday weakness. Yesterday we saw neither weakness nor strength later in the day and today we saw weakness. Too early to say if trend is changing or just displaying some indecision.
My original experimental inflection point calculations continue in plain old volatile mode. Today has oneday changes with two of six periods marginally weakening and four improving while yesterday had all periods showing improvement. The change over five days went to five improved and one weaker period, with the rate of change over five days the same.
The newer version oneday changes, has all periods showing improvement. The change over five days has all six periods improved for the second consecutive day. The average change over those days has all periods showing improvement, from five yesterday, giving three of the last for days having all periods improved.
The newer version's chart pattern, which yesterday changed to suggesting an upward bias, has begun to form the pattern suggesting a rise is coming. One or two more days should get us out of the "pop"period. ATM I'm feeling optimistic.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:53: 208400 shrs, 07.90% of vol, VWAP $0.1817, 060.7% buys
09:5410:03: 214700 shrs, 08.14% of vol, VWAP $0.1877, 044.6% buys
10:0710:28: 337650 shrs, 12.80% of vol, VWAP $0.1966, 070.1% buys
10:3010:46: 457100 shrs, 17.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1942, 035.2% buys
11:0311:33: 256800 shrs, 09.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1936, 052.8% buys
11:3612:03: 167438 shrs, 06.35% of vol, VWAP $0.1938, 059.4% buys
12:0812:57: 117940 shrs, 04.47% of vol, VWAP $0.1915, 028.8% buys
13:0013:58: 062600 shrs, 02.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1917, 055.3% buys
14:0214:28: 269350 shrs, 10.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1917, 072.3% buys
14:3115:07: 159000 shrs, 06.03% of vol, VWAP $0.1876, 046.5% buys
15:0815:19: 161264 shrs, 06.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1856, 017.5% buys
15:2015:30: 152200 shrs, 05.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1786, 059.1% buys
15:3615:51: 052900 shrs, 02.01% of vol, VWAP $0.1774, 003.8% buys
15:5515:59: 020000 shrs, 00.76% of vol, VWAP $0.1800, 100.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1751$0.1764: 005900 shrs, 00.22% of vol, VWAP $0.1753, 000.0% buys
$0.1770$0.1790: 143800 shrs, 05.45% of vol, VWAP $0.1777, 033.8% buys
$0.1800$0.1849: 390700 shrs, 14.81% of vol, VWAP $0.1817, 056.3% buys
$0.1850$0.1899: 342174 shrs, 12.97% of vol, VWAP $0.1862, 022.6% buys
$0.1900$0.1949: 993403 shrs, 37.67% of vol, VWAP $0.1916, 041.8% buys
$0.1950$0.1992: 582165 shrs, 22.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1961, 067.5% buys
$0.2000$0.2000: 179200 shrs, 06.79% of vol, VWAP $0.2000, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
03/14 $0.1605 00.09% 76.3%
03/17 $0.1701 +06.02% 68.5%
03/18 $0.1707 +00.33% 55.8%
03/19 $0.1692 00.86% 75.3%
03/20 $0.1674 01.08% 75.6%
03/21 $0.1704 +01.78% 44.5%
03/24 $0.1692 00.71% 27.9%
03/25 $0.1699 +00.42% 57.8%
03/26 $0.1702 +00.16% 30.5%
03/27 $0.1576 07.40% 29.3%
03/28 $0.1672 +06.09% 54.2%
03/31 $0.1673 +00.05% 38.7%
04/01 $0.1664 00.48% 54.8%
04/02 $0.1748 +05.04% 34.3%
04/03 %0.1902 +08.79% 50.5%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/31: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1015, x 80%: $0.0812
04/01: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1021, x 80%: $0.0816
04/02: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1024, x 80%: $0.0819
04/03: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1038, x 80%: $0.0831
Vol in K, for above days: 786.80 2,487.68 1,116.32 2,637.34.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
04/02/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 133, MinTrSz: 1, MaxTrSz: 45000, Vol: 1116320, AvTrSz: 8393
Min. Pr: 0.1700, Max Pr: 0.1800, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1748
# Buys, Shares: 52 383358, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1773
# Sells, Shares: 81 732962, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1736
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.91 (34.34% "buys"), DlyShts 247942 (22.21%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 33.83%
There's a few things of concern for me today. The first is that in spite of what seems to be a mostly positive take on the quarterly and year end conference call, we still couldn't break $0.18. Then consider that our volume was lower sooner than I would expect if we were getting a "pop"  one day after reporting. The buy percentage dropped from yesterday's 54.8%. The larger trades, 34.82% of day's volume, were decidedly in a profittaking mode: 83.33% of those trades and 83.45% of the larger trades volume, were sells.
Offering some counterbalance is that the smaller trades were much more balanced  see below.
My last concern is that two consecutive days have had lastminute trades that were all buys and all substantially(?) higher than the trading range just prior to those trades. In each case they moved the closing price higher than it would otherwise have been. In dollar terms they were all small and reminiscent of behavior in the past that I felt were attempts to manipulate the market. In this case, today a close lower was converted to a close higher.
There were 5 premarket trades for 30K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,086,320 to 1,116,320 and would lower the short percentage from 22.82% to 22.21%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 247,942 to 277,942 and the short percentage would be 24.90%.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0819 vs. $0.0816 (corrected here and in yesterday's erroneous $0.1325 post), $0.0812, $0.0807, $0.0800, $0.0792, $0.0784, $0.0777, $0.0773 and $0.0769 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1399 vs. $0.1332, $0.1338, $0.1337 vs. $0.1261, $0.1361, $0.1359, $0.1353, $0.1363 and $0.1339 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 13.11%, 0.00%, 5.04%, 55.13% and 75.31% respectively. Price spread today was 5.88% vs. 19.76%, 14.20%, 14.23%, 10.67%, 6.71%, 9.20%, 11.11%, 6.06% and 4.87% on prior days.
There were two "last minute" trades that raised our closing price from what would have been $0.175x, where x is in the range of 0 to 2, to $0.1797. These were at 15:57 for 5K and 10K respectively. I'm sure if the asks had been $0.19 those trades would have been at that price as both were buys. In fact, the last four were buys. Although this has no effect on my metrics, it does affect what appears on traditional TA charts and plays into consideration because the closing price affects such as the Bollinger bands and other TA oscillators.
Without them our close would be below the close of 4/1, which were also established by two "last minute" trades of $0.1789 "buys" when the prior price was a sell at $0.1720 for 33K. Just wanted to highlight this activity.
For the first hour of trading marketmakers NITE and WABR were most frequently at the front of the offers. However they didn't move the offers down much. ARCA, in from the start, did that when they finally moved from the initial $0.23, seen at 9:32, to $0.175 at ~10:37. My prior peek at 10:11 had a $0.178 offer and, based on the lineup behind ARCA at 10:37, appears to have still been $0.178 when ARCA made that move.
ARCA was out from 10:39 until 13:48. During that period ATDF and WABR provided most of the pressure on the offers, with NITE chipping in late in the lunch hour. During this time the offers dropped as low as $0.1729 and got as high as $0.18 ... At which time ARCA returned with a $0.178 offer. I didn't note them on the offer for the rest of the day.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 18 of the 133 trades, 13.53%. These 388,733 shares were 34.82% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1739. 3 of these trades, 16.67%, were buys of 64,325 shares, 16.55% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1771. 15 of the larger trades, 83.33%, were sells of 324,408 shares, 83.45% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1733.
The other 115 trades, 86.47% of the day's trades, traded 727,587 shares, 65.18% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1664. 49 trades, 42.61%, were buys and accounted for 319,033 shares, 43.85% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1773. 66 trades, 57.39%, were sells and accounted for 408,554 shares, 56.15% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1738.
Today topped right at my newlydrawn horizontal resistance of $0.18. We now have an origin and three exact touches. There's two more that just missed by 1/10th of a penny or less. With volume reduced by ~55% but a much higher low, +13%, it's hard to guess if this will hold very much longer. If we included the highs that just missed touching, we've had five tests in twelve days of the resistance. Movement beyond has been rejected each time. From this we know both that it's strong resistance and that there's an upward bias with some staying power.
I wouldn't want to guess, based on this and the traditional oscillators, which way it was going to go next.
This being the day after the quarterly and EOY '13 report and conference call, when we saw generally positive takes in the concentrator, I'm not surprised by the push to resistance again. However I am surprised by the fall in volume appearing so quickly. Maybe it's because folks wanted to take a day and think about it before jumping either way.
I'm still in my "wait a few days and see what sentiment starts to look like" mode. With $0.18 appearing so strongly resistant at the same time that price action over the last two weeks has pushed up to it so frequently, and now the generally positive take on the reporting being unable (yet!) to cause a push past $0.18, I'm inclined to remain inert a while longer.
Yesterday, speaking of the TA oscillators, I erroneously said "... It's odd, with price being constrained thus far, to see the RSI and full stochastic heading towards oversold, but that's what they're doing". That should have said "overbought", not "oversold". I've corrected it in the 4/1 posting.
Today the full stochastic is into to overbought while the RSI went essentially flat, moving only from ~66.8 to ~67.1
The Bollingers continue converging at a reducing rate and momentum weakened a bit from ~1.098 to ~1.073  essential at neutral. ADX related also weakened. The rest of the oscillators continue to crawl slowly higher, including MFI, Williams %R, and accumulation/distribution.
The MACD is still well above neutral and the histogram has been going from below neutral upward for the fourth consecutive day. However the rate of rise on the histogram has begun to slow, consistent with the strong resistance seen so far at $0.18.
I mentioned that lateday strength seems the M.O. Now, rather than lateday weakness. Today we saw neither weakness nor strength later in the day.
My original experimental inflection point calculations continue in plain old volatile mode. Today has oneday changes with five of six periods marginally weakening while yesterday had all periods showing improvement. The change over five days went to two improved and four weaker periods versus yesterday's four improved periods with two weaker. The rate of change over five days is split three weaker and three stronger.
The newer version oneday changes, which had all periods again showing improvement, although to small degrees, now has only five in that state. The change over five days, which had five weakening, mostly by small degrees, now has all six periods improved and the average change over those days has five periods improved after having had all periods showing improvement for two days.
The newer version's chart pattern, which was suggesting what in the past has been a sideways, mostly, behavior, is now suggesting an upward bias. I'm still waiting to see what develops after the normal "pop" fades into the past, likely in another day or two.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:2409:28: 030000 shrs, 02.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1709, 000.0% buys
09:3009:46: 073009 shrs, 06.54% of vol, VWAP $0.1739, 058.7% buys
09:4910:27: 097999 shrs, 08.78% of vol, VWAP $0.1747, 019.1% buys
10:3010:47: 097209 shrs, 08.71% of vol, VWAP $0.1735, 031.0% buys
10:4811:47: 079043 shrs, 07.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1701, 003.5% buys
11:5412:47: 067500 shrs, 06.05% of vol, VWAP $0.1729, 048.1% buys
12:4813:44: 114374 shrs, 10.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1757, 060.2% buys
13:4814:01: 065001 shrs, 05.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1779, 092.3% buys
14:0214:32: 095000 shrs, 08.51% of vol, VWAP $0.1747, 000.0% buys
14:4115:02: 031600 shrs, 02.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1787, 093.4% buys
15:0415:27: 137285 shrs, 12.30% of vol, VWAP $0.1758, 010.9% buys
15:3215:34: 058000 shrs, 05.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1795, 100.0% buys
15:3915:52: 155300 shrs, 13.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1745, 006.4% buys
15:5715:57: 015000 shrs, 01.34% of vol, VWAP $0.1797, 100.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1700$0.1703: 178876 shrs, 16.02% of vol, VWAP $0.1701, 000.0% buys
$0.1710$0.1749: 150755 shrs, 13.50% of vol, VWAP $0.1727, 030.4% buys
$0.1750$0.1753: 480886 shrs, 43.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1751, 010.1% buys
$0.1760$0.1780: 178999 shrs, 16.03% of vol, VWAP $0.1772, 090.5% buys
$0.1790$0.1800: 126804 shrs, 11.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1798, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
03/13 $0.1606 +02.82% 67.5%
03/14 $0.1605 00.09% 76.3%
03/17 $0.1701 +06.02% 68.5%
03/18 $0.1707 +00.33% 55.8%
03/19 $0.1692 00.86% 75.3%
03/20 $0.1674 01.08% 75.6%
03/21 $0.1704 +01.78% 44.5%
03/24 $0.1692 00.71% 27.9%
03/25 $0.1699 +00.42% 57.8%
03/26 $0.1702 +00.16% 30.5%
03/27 $0.1576 07.40% 29.3%
03/28 $0.1672 +06.09% 54.2%
03/31 $0.1673 +00.05% 38.7%
04/01 $0.1664 00.48% 54.8%
04/02 $0.1748 +05.04% 34.3%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/31: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1015, x 80%: $0.0812
04/01: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1021, x 80%: $0.0816
04/02: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1024, x 80%: $0.0819
Vol in K, for above days: 786.80 2,487.68 1116.32.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
04/01/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 235, MinTrSz: 23, MaxTrSz: 80000, Vol: 2487682, AvTrSz: 10586
Min. Pr: 0.1503, Max Pr: 0.1800, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1664
# Buys, Shares: 140 1362288, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1673
# Sells, Shares: 95 1125394, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1654
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.21:1 (54.76% "buys"), DlyShts 1004392 (40.37%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 89.25%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0816 vs. $0.0812, $0.0807, $0.0800, $0.0792, $0.0784, $0.0777, $0.0773, $0.0769 and $0.0767 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1332 vs. $0.1338, $0.1337 vs. $0.1261, $0.1361, $0.1359, $0.1353, $0.1363, $0.1339 and $0.1354 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 4.27%, 0.39%, 0.48%, 216.18% and 289.09% respectively. Price spread today was 19.76% vs. 14.20%, 14.23%, 10.67%, 6.71%, 9.20%, 11.11%, 6.06%, 4.87% and 12.84% on prior days.
There were 2 exceptional trades: one "seq" trade reported of 42.5K at $0.1510 and a single 2.4K share trade of $0.1503. On the first the time stamp is meaningless as it tells us the time that a latereported (>= 10 secs after the trade was actually made) trade was reported, not when it was executed. I've no idea when it actually was traded. I mention these two trades because they were the only trades below $0.1521 today, affecting a couple of our metrics. If they are excluded the low would have moved 3.12% instead of the 4.27% we got and the spread would be 18.34%, still quite large, instead of the 19.76% we saw.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 53 of the 235 trades, 22.55%. These 1,586,771 shares were 63.79% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1665. 23 of these trades, 43.40%, were buys of 802,744 shares, 50.59% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1678. 30 of the larger trades, 56.60%, were sells of 784,027 shares, 49.41% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1651.
The other 182 trades, 77.45% of the day's trades, traded 900,911 shares, 36.21% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1664. 117 trades, 64.29%, were buys and accounted for 559,544 shares, 62.11% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1668. 65 trades, 35.71%, were sells and accounted for 341,367 shares, 37.89% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1658.
Yesterday I noted the top was right in the range of recent prior highs, causing me to adjust my resistance to $0.18, yielding a horizontal resistance. I said if this is correct, we will be consolidating in a sideways trading channel. Well, today topped right at $0.18 and withdrew. This now provides an origin and two exact touches. There's two more that just missed by 1/10th of a penny or less. I think this makes this a pretty solid indication of resistance.
This was even with an apparent generally positive, or at least much less negative, initial take on the quarterly report and conference call by the denizens of the concentrator.
I mentioned yesterday the volume was a bit higher but the price action was essentially the same, so I still couldn't see "strength". Volume took a big jump and VWAP weakened and the high hit the resistance around 14:15 and fell back. Still no sign of strength in upward pressure. But trying to judge anything on the day of the report is risky. As I mentioned to someone in the concentrator, I like to wait a few days and see what sentiment starts to look like then.
The oscillators are beginning to show some movement. All but the ADX related had a small up tick. It's odd, with price being constrained thus far, to see the RSI and full stochastic heading towards overbought, but that's what they're doing.
The Bollingers are close to finishing the initial adjusting (converging) and should begin to reduce their parabolic movements now. They should continue to converge, but at a reducing rate soon.
The MACD, which I've not checked in the last few days, is well above neutral too and the histogram has been going from below neutral upward for the third consecutive day.
I mentioned that our traditional lateday weakness seems to be no longer the normal behavior and lateday strength seems the M.O. now. Check the trading breakdown by time  it reinforces that perception today.
I mentioned my original experimental inflection point calculations are back in plain old volatile mode. Today has oneday changes with all periods showing improvement versus yesterday's four periods marginally improved while the 10 and 200day periods weakened. The change over five days went from yesterday's periods split three and three to four improved with two weaker and the rate of change is the same.
The newer version oneday changes, which had switched from all periods showing a bit of strengthening to having five in that state yesterday, has all periods again showing improvement, although to small degrees. The change over five days, which had all periods strengthening, now has five weakening, although mostly by small degrees. The good news is that the average change over those days has all periods showing improvement for the second consecutive day.
The newer version's chart pattern continues to suggest what in the past has been a sideways, mostly, behavior. With the quarterly report and conference call just completed, we'll need to see what develops after the normal "pop" fades into the past.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:30: 047250 shrs, 01.90% of vol, VWAP $0.1522, 010.1% buys
09:3109:44: 291000 shrs, 11.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1600, 038.1% buys
09:4610:00: 086813 shrs, 03.49% of vol, VWAP $0.1600, 038.4% buys
10:0110:14: 087087 shrs, 03.50% of vol, VWAP $0.1595, 068.9% buys
10:1610:29: 179994 shrs, 07.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1563, 062.6% buys
10:3010:46: 133800 shrs, 05.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1595, 035.4% buys
10:3411:04: 302063 shrs, 12.14% of vol, VWAP $0.1626, 058.1% buys
11:0611:21: 407030 shrs, 16.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1673, 070.4% buys
11:2211:39: 084084 shrs, 03.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1641, 040.5% buys
11:4211:58: 072725 shrs, 02.92% of vol, VWAP $0.1714, 071.1% buys
12:0212:05: 139515 shrs, 05.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1776, 078.8% buys
12:0212:31: 182915 shrs, 07.35% of vol, VWAP $0.1750, 063.1% buys
12:3414:05: 238698 shrs, 09.60% of vol, VWAP $0.1709, 059.9% buys
14:0614:16: 055899 shrs, 02.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1760, 097.3% buys
14:1714:28: 052000 shrs, 02.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1793, 100.0% buys
14:3114:58: 030858 shrs, 01.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1730, 000.2% buys
15:0015:26: 104755 shrs, 04.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1760, 014.6% buys
15:3115:47: 105711 shrs, 04.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1743, 023.6% buys
15:5015:59: 092500 shrs, 03.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1757, 044.3% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1503$0.1530: 084900 shrs, 03.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1517, 029.4% buys
$0.1550$0.1599: 291407 shrs, 11.71% of vol, VWAP $0.1580, 060.2% buys
$0.1600$0.1641: 688721 shrs, 27.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1611, 039.5% buys
$0.1650$0.1699: 436160 shrs, 17.53% of vol, VWAP $0.1657, 090.1% buys
$0.1700$0.1740: 528731 shrs, 21.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1712, 037.2% buys
$0.1750$0.1795: 426564 shrs, 17.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1777, 063.1% buys
$0.1800$0.1800: 031199 shrs, 01.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1800, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
03/12 $0.1562 13.18% 27.3%
03/13 $0.1606 +02.82% 67.5%
03/14 $0.1605 00.09% 76.3%
03/17 $0.1701 +06.02% 68.5%
03/18 $0.1707 +00.33% 55.8%
03/19 $0.1692 00.86% 75.3%
03/20 $0.1674 01.08% 75.6%
03/21 $0.1704 +01.78% 44.5%
03/24 $0.1692 00.71% 27.9%
03/25 $0.1699 +00.42% 57.8%
03/26 $0.1702 +00.16% 30.5%
03/27 $0.1576 07.40% 29.3%
03/28 $0.1672 +06.09% 54.2%
03/31 $0.1673 +00.05% 38.7%
04/01 $0.1664 00.48% 54.8%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
03/31: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1015, x 80%: $0.0812
04/01: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1021, x 80%: $0.0816
Vol in K, for above days: 786.80 2,487.68.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
Disclosure: I am long AXPW.
Additional disclosure: I am very experimental and sometimes do my TA in nontraditional fashions. Keep this in mind when considering anything I post and be sure and consult other sources and do your due diligence. I'm barely responsible for myself and certainly not responsible for anyone else or their actions. :)
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