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AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 12/01/2014 $AXPW http://seekingalpha.com/p/237ad Nov 29, 2014

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AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 04/08/2014 3 comments
Links to blogs older than the 01/01/2014 version, PIPE discussions, one year charts will be found only in that and older blogs. Most historical short sales related stuff has also been chopped.
In the below chart the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!
(rightclick and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)
Next are modified inflection point calculation charts bracketing a price chart for comparison. The false bullish moves and contrary moves of the 5day are gone.
The two identically calculated inflection points are calculated differently from the original above. I have two different presentations of this newer version. The top one has all periods on the same scale. The bottom one has longer periods on the left scale and shorter periods on the right scale. The hope is that shorter period changes will be easier to spot. More work to do, this is a start, hopefully.
Other changes I want to try are still waiting for me to work on them.
(rightclick and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)
Older stuff for "2013 Dly Sht % of 'sells' values", Weekly 85% price summaries going back to 6/14/2012, and some daytoday VWAP changes stuff going back to 10/09 are available in AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 10/1/2013.
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'", inflection point calculation values, and endofweek 80% (was 85%) PIPE price factors are now only in the latest daily comment.
The PIPE agreement was amended, changing the 85% calculation to 80%, among other minor things. See AXION POWER INTERNATIONAL, INC., FORM 8K, Filed 01/03/14 for the Period Ending 01/02/14.
04/30/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 55, MinTrSz: 250, MaxTrSz: 28750, Vol: 485154, AvTrSz: 8821
Min. Pr: 0.1400, Max Pr: 0.1454, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1424
# Buys, Shares: 14 94504, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1441
# Sells, Shares: 41 390650, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1420
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:4.13 (19.48% "buys"), DlyShts 41373 (08.53%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 10.59%
As with yesterday, my nontraditional stuff continues indicating lower price. VWAP and its averages are still weakening. Average trade size made a rebound today though, but we don't know if it's a blip or the start of some firmness. Four of the six average trade volume are still sinking.
Our VWAP, at $0.1424, is below the stillrising 50day SMA, $0.1492 now, for the third consecutive day.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is: $0.1191 vs. $0.1173, $0.1153, $0.1135, $0.1114, $0.1093, $0.1071, $0.1049, $0.1029 and $0.1012 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1139 vs. $0.1168, $0.1152, $0.1177, $0.1198, $0.1196, $0.1180, $0.1148, $0.1075 and $0.1100 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.10%, 6.19%, 2.48%, 133.68% and 38.31% respectively. Price spread today was 3.86% vs. 8.39%, 10.88%, 3.38%, 4.76%, 2.37%, 7.86%, 7.14%, 13.76% and 19.23% on prior days.
There were no trades today that raised suspicions of manipulation and none that deserved closer examination IMO.
Today had volume up 133.68% from yesterday. This is still low, making the sixth consecutive day of low volume. It's doubly unfortunate in that the volume increase came on a day when VWAP, low, high, close and buy percentage (along with daily short sales as would be expected) were all down. And volume is not high enough to suggest a possible end of a down trend. Overall, no bullish sign. The traditional TA oscillators are also weakening and we've got a lower high, low and close all in a compressed price range. All told, some movement is being suggested and nothing suggests up as the direction.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 13 of the 55 trades, 23.64%. These 268,197 shares were 55.28% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1428. 2 of the larger trades, 15.38%, were buys of 42,000 shares, 15.66% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1449. 11 of the larger trades, 84.62%, were sells of 226,197 shares, 84.34% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1424.
The other 42 trades, 76.36% of the day's trades, traded 216,957 shares, 44.72% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1419. 12 trades, 28.57%, were buys and accounted for 52,504 shares, 24.20% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1434. 30 trades, 71.43%, were sells and accounted for 164,453 shares, 75.80% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1415.
ARCA played was a constant presence today after an initial premarket presence on the offer with the usual 4K $0.249 and disappearing into the mist right after the open, being gone at 09:32. Upon return at 10:35 with a 5K $0.144 offer, which undercut the $0.145 by NITE and ATDF, they kept adjusting their offer, mostly downward: $0.143 11:48, $0.1429 12:20, $0.1428 12:42, $0.1438 12:57$0.1433 13:43, $0.1428 13:45, $0.1423 14:26, $0.1418 14:43, $0.1413 & $0.1405 15:07, $0.1410 & $0.1415 15:08, $0.1410 15:19. They were gone at 15:22. A lot of this movement was due to stiff competition from mostly ATDF. ARCA and ATDF were both very aggressive. In fact, from 9:32 through 10:29 ATDF lowered their offer twelve times with interference from NITE observed only two times. I believe there must have been a lot of folks desperate to exit their positions trading through ATDF.
Full stochastic had climbed into overbought two days ago and I said on low and falling volume I thought it was not a good sign. Yesterday it fell right out of overbought, a continued "not a good sign", even with the abysmal volume. Today it continued falling and crossed below it's average line.
The Bollinger's lower limit yesterday descent picked up a little steam today and went further below the rising (barely) 200day SMA and is about to intersect a potential, but weak IMO, support in the $0.125 area.
The Bollinger's upper limit continues its slow degradation. It should begin to accelerate tomorrow or the following day unless some significant pop immediately occurs.
Momentum again managed to remain out of oversold for the fifth day with a reading of 0.8723. Still below neutral.
ADX and related, rolled over a bit today after making an anemic attempt at showing improvement yesterday.
Yesterday I mentioned the daily short sales percentage had moved above all it's averages and volume was abysmal. I was unsure whether to look for continued rise, maybe up near or above the 40% area, or if it should start a small leg down next. Today's very low buy percentage set the course and the daily short sales percentage did what it should and plummeted to 8.53%.
My original inflection point calculations, switched from five periods improved and only one weaker to four periods weaker and to mildly improved today. The aggregate fiveday changes went from three improved, two weaker and one essentially flat to all periods weaker. The average change over those days switched from two improved and four weaker to five weaker and one improved.
The newer version's oneday changes switched from five improved and one weaker to one improved and five weaker today. Change over five days continues with all periods weaker for the third consecutive day, with the average change over those five days also showing all periods weakened for the third consecutive day.
The newer inflection point calculations' chart pattern, which was a little less negative yesterday, became more negative again today. But again nothing too much should be taken from this considering the very weak volume. However, not being able to string together a second consecutive day of increases in positive bias might warrant more weight. If nothing else, caution is warranted.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. NOTE! The first period was two trades that set the high of the day at the open, $0.1550 on 3K shares and the low of the day at $0.1430 on 500 shares at 9:53:13.
09:4910:01: 125000 shrs, 25.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1451, 013.6% buys
10:0210:22: 032000 shrs, 06.60% of vol, VWAP $0.1416, 026.3% buys
10:2911:04: 074175 shrs, 15.29% of vol, VWAP $0.1440, 047.8% buys
12:1513:28: 037575 shrs, 07.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1423, 044.1% buys
14:2414:56: 093170 shrs, 19.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1402, 002.9% buys
15:0415:21: 043100 shrs, 08.88% of vol, VWAP $0.1401, 001.6% buys
15:2215:34: 066400 shrs, 13.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1405, 000.0% buys
15:3615:45: 013734 shrs, 02.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1435, 100.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range. NOTE! The first price was a single trade that set the day's low at 09:53;13. The late price is a single trade at the open, 9:30:08, that set the high of the day.
$0.1400$0.1400: 020000 shrs, 04.12% of vol, VWAP $0.1400, 000.0% buys
$0.1401$0.1408: 196100 shrs, 40.42% of vol, VWAP $0.1401, 000.4% buys
$0.1414$0.1418: 022070 shrs, 04.55% of vol, VWAP $0.1414, 003.0% buys
$0.1423$0.1429: 023250 shrs, 04.79% of vol, VWAP $0.1428, 052.7% buys
$0.1430$0.1438: 032059 shrs, 06.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1434, 081.0% buys
$0.1440$0.1448: 064175 shrs, 13.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1445, 055.2% buys
$0.1450$0.1454: 127500 shrs, 26.28% of vol, VWAP $0.1451, 015.3% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
04/11 $0.1689 05.18% 17.0%
04/14 $0.1641 02.87% 43.3%
04/15 $0.1443 12.06% 32.2%
04/16 $0.1375 04.70% 50.9%
04/17 $0.1344 02.30% 53.2%
04/21 $0.1435 +04.29% 25.2%
04/22 $0.1475 +02.74% 64.5%
04/23 $0.1495 +01.38% 71.3%
04/24 $0.1497 +00.15% 15.6%
04/25 $0.1471 01.75% 19.7%
04/28 $0.1440 02.14% 21.8%
04/29 $0.1460 +01.43% 57.3%
04/30 $0.1424 02.48% 19.5%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
04/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1442, x 80%: $0.1153
04/29: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1466, x 80%: $0.1173
04/30: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1489, x 80%: $0.1191
Vol in K, for above days: 454.60 207.61 485.15
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are omitted from the concentrator.
Week ending values related to the PIPE 85% (80% 1/3/14 forward) share pricing:
03/07: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0955, x 80%: $0.0764 VWAP $0.1847
03/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0956, x 80%: $0.0765 VWAP $0.1605
03/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.0966, x 80%: $0.0773 VWAP $0.1704
03/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1008, x 80%: $0.0807 VWAP $0.1672
04/04: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1060, x 80%: $0.0848 VWAP $0.1882
04/11: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1192, x 80%: $0.0954 VWAP $0.1689
04/17: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1286, x 80%: $0.1029 VWAP $0.1376
04/25: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1418, x 80%: $0.1135 VWAP $0.1471
Vol, in thousands, for above weeks: 8,935, 7,805, 2,556, 5,134, 9,037, 5,515, 4103 (4 day wk), 2,272.
On my ORIGINAL inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
 1day change 
04/21 +37.8% 16.7% 21.9% 01.8% +00.3% 00.2%
04/22 +56.1% +20.9% 05.1% +06.9% +01.8% +00.7%
04/23 +213.7% +39.1% +00.8% +04.4% +00.5% +00.0%
04/24 66.5% +21.7% 06.5% +07.2% +01.0% +00.1%
04/25 388.7% 18.3% 12.2% 02.7% 00.1% 00.3%
04/28 08.8% +27.1% 04.8% 00.7% +00.0% +00.2%
04/29 78.0% +10.0% +05.5% +12.8% +03.8% +00.7%
04/30 69.7% +20.9% 09.2% 00.2% +00.2% 00.6%
 5day change 
04/21 +235.0% +028.1% +161.7% 178.4% +044.7% +033.3%
04/22 +005.3% +078.8% 440.8% +174.1% +050.9% +236.9%
04/23 +015.0% +1238.3% +071.4% +277.4% 009.4% +119.6%
04/24 035.5% 006.7% 502.6% +015.5% +003.4% 010.5%
04/25 046.4% 014.6% 051.0% 027.4% 009.2% 073.6%
04/28 057.8% +064.1% +028.3% +009.3% 007.1% +150.8%
04/29 204.1% 026.2% +040.3% +027.8% +060.5% 002.9%
04/30 321.1% 049.8% 067.2% 022.5% 005.5% 088.0%
 5day rate of change 
04/21 +112.8% +116.6% +305.6% +027.2% +074.6% +396.0%
04/22 007.9% +174.2% 123.8% +121.9% +079.1% +133.1%
04/23 030.4% +332.6% +371.8% +808.4% +108.8% +024.3%
04/24 052.5% 021.2% 251.1% +009.5% 077.0% 038.8%
04/25 083.3% +037.4% 003.1% 030.4% +29633.9% 048.1%
04/28 783.7% +025.4% 001.4% +031.7% 067.4% +025.9%
04/29 050.3% 038.8% +094.6% 028.9% +110.1% 086.9%
04/30 060.6% 149.0% 1260.2% 110.3% +008.8% 869.4%
On my NEWER inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
 1day change 
04/21 +054.39% +019.87% +030.29% +034.16% +029.00% +025.91%
04/22 +076.52% +035.51% +030.30% +039.18% +027.72% +023.00%
04/23 +355.88% +054.18% +029.63% +037.68% +022.03% +017.15%
04/24 055.26% +023.79% 015.93% +000.72% 003.24% 003.08%
04/25 219.76% 049.41% 050.01% 054.70% 025.47% 019.48%
04/28 040.35% +015.29% 026.92% 033.36% 020.27% 015.68%
04/29 056.57% +017.95% +012.01% +018.10% +010.08% +006.17%
04/30 074.63% +006.07% 021.08% 020.26% 012.37% 010.43%
 5day change 
04/21 +1118.62% +102.04% +139.69% +111.79% +120.45% +116.13%
04/22 +011.36% +2760.29% +049.88% +558.24% +304.72% +372.53%
04/23 +029.32% +270.18% +229.47% +168.35% +152.08% +163.52%
04/24 028.01% 000.09% 009.49% +003.05% +003.46% +003.23%
04/25 036.14% 031.78% 049.79% 035.93% 035.68% 036.80%
04/28 070.69% 021.56% 114.19% 076.12% 082.02% 083.83%
04/29 186.19% 042.52% 209.53% 112.34% 154.71% 190.74%
04/30 288.53% 081.55% 159.40% 1296.98% 384.79% 267.09%
 5day rate of change 
04/21 +096.93% +4039.97% +142.78% +450.24% +418.47% +377.68%
04/22 012.79% +009.94% 029.28% +022.43% +016.58% +018.64%
04/23 020.59% +093.22% +072.64% +093.64% +092.21% +093.85%
04/24 035.33% +001.47% 005.99% +007.24% +009.48% +008.71%
04/25 053.16% 027.01% 040.58% 035.74% 035.08% 036.09%
04/28 238.95% 054.16% 127.68% 091.14% 098.11% 097.81%
04/29 058.92% 092.92% 088.45% 487.99% 2236.25% 1989.93%
04/30 063.17% 2635.91% 201.67% 224.35% 185.04% 184.37%
Rolling 5day ORIGINAL inflection point calculation aggregate change:
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
04/21 5 Day +1594.37 0594.62 +0166.20 0645.87 +0708.68 0201.26
04/22 5 Day +1678.62 0126.23 0566.34 +0478.88 +1069.63 +0275.59
04/23 5 Day +1931.16 +1436.84 0162.25 +1807.49 +0969.09 +0605.13
04/24 5 Day +1246.38 +1339.92 0977.69 +2087.26 +1002.17 +0541.88
04/25 5 Day +0667.84 +1143.72 1476.07 +1515.24 +0910.34 +0143.25
04/28 5 Day +0282.00 +1876.37 1058.13 +1655.56 +0845.62 +0359.25
04/29 5 Day 0293.44 +1385.18 0632.09 +2116.34 +1357.36 +0348.82
04/30 5 Day 1235.61 +0695.55 1056.61 +1639.30 +1282.16 +0041.72
Average change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
04/21 +756.67 +030.66 +239.46 230.46 067.01 +096.81
04/22 +696.70 +084.07 057.00 +050.48 014.03 +225.67
04/23 +485.10 +363.68 +154.90 +458.54 +001.23 +280.48
04/24 +230.57 +286.74 234.10 +502.02 +000.28 +171.52
04/25 +038.39 +394.04 241.38 +349.45 +084.09 +089.04
04/28 262.47 +494.20 244.87 +460.29 +027.39 +112.10
04/29 394.41 +302.28 013.15 +327.49 +057.55 +014.65
04/30 633.35 148.26 178.87 033.64 +062.61 112.68
Rolling 5day NEWER inflection point calculation aggregate change:
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
04/21 5 Day +0332.72 +0006.92 +0204.39 +0155.76 +0383.99 +0578.04
04/22 5 Day +0370.50 +0197.99 +0306.34 +1025.28 +1554.08 +2731.37
04/23 5 Day +0479.13 +0732.93 +1009.30 +2751.36 +3917.55 +7197.59
04/24 5 Day +0344.93 +0732.23 +0913.53 +2835.31 +4052.94 +7429.73
04/25 5 Day +0220.29 +0499.56 +0458.68 +1816.51 +2606.66 +4695.22
04/28 5 Day +0064.57 +0391.85 0065.11 +0433.81 +0468.75 +0759.00
04/29 5 Day 0055.65 +0225.25 0201.53 0053.52 0256.44 0688.70
04/30 5 Day 0216.21 +0041.57 0522.75 0747.70 1243.18 2528.18
Average change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
04/21 +0184.01 +0106.74 +0285.54 +0384.17 +0563.13 +1036.11
04/22 +0160.47 +0117.34 +0201.93 +0470.35 +0656.50 +1229.28
04/23 +0127.43 +0226.73 +0348.61 +0910.81 +1261.84 +2383.00
04/24 +0082.40 +0230.07 +0327.73 +0976.71 +1381.47 +2590.66
04/25 +0038.60 +0167.94 +0194.74 +0627.61 +0896.90 +1655.62
04/28 0053.63 +0076.99 0053.90 +0055.61 +0016.95 +0036.19
04/29 0085.23 +0005.45 0101.57 0215.76 0362.10 0684.01
04/30 0139.07 0138.27 0306.41 0699.81 1032.15 1945.15
Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
============ 2014 ===============
Mon. 02/10 26.53% 34.19% 60.92% 50.15% 27.28%
Tue. 02/18 44.83% 53.95% 25.30% 46.39%
Mon. 02/24 23.26% 77.84% 112.52% 61.42% 60.59%
Mon. 03/03 37.80% 39.30% 84.26% 47.35% 65.02%
Mon. 03/10 49.87% 81.60% 16.78% 69.33% 161.53%
Mon. 03/17 119.24% 54.59% 197.55% 335.39% 44.23%
Mon. 03/24 36.88% 97.94% 50.67% 44.05% 111.73%
Mon. 03/28 54.06% 89.25% 33.83% 65.59% 97.05%
Mon. 04/07 45.66% 19.84% 39.98% 23.89% 12.70%
Mon. 04/14 45.33% 40.47% 91.81% 104.74% (short week)
Mon. 04/21 26.55% 153.62% 67.25% 18.15% 13.76%
Mon. 04/28 19.56% 75.57% 10.59%
============ 2013 ===============
Nov Avg: 28.42%, min: 05.99%, max: 050.60%
Dec Avg: 29.22%, min: 02.10%, max: 063.82%
============ 2014 ===============
Jan Avg: 54.66%, min: 09.32%, max: 130.29%
Feb Avg: 50.44%, min: 00.28%, max: 112.52%
Mar Avg: 85.68%, min: 16.78%, max: 335.39%
Apr Avg: 51.85%, min: 10.59%, max: 153.62%
0430 Vol 0485154, Sht 0041373 08.53% LHC 0.1400 0.1454 0.1435 b:s 1:4.13
0429 Vol 0207614, Sht 0067066 32.30% LHC 0.1430 0.1550 0.1450 b:s 1.34:1
0428 Vol 0454596, Sht 0066600 14.65% LHC 0.1351 0.1498 0.1498 b:s 1:3.44
0425 Vol 0451465, Sht 0049900 11.06% LHC 0.1450 0.1499 0.1450 b:s 1:4.08
0424 Vol 0230043, Sht 0035245 15.32% LHC 0.1451 0.1520 0.1500 b:s 1:5.42
0423 Vol 0210873, Sht 0040700 19.30% LHC 0.1475 0.1510 0.1476 b:s 2.48:1
0422 Vol 0942459, Sht 0514439 54.59% LHC 0.1400 0.1510 0.1510 b:s 1.81:1
0421 Vol 0436920, Sht 0086720 19.85% LHC 0.1400 0.1500 0.1402 b:s 1:2.96
0417 Vol 0917461, Sht 0370716 40.41% LHC 0.1301 0.1480 0.1450 b:s 1.38:1
0416 Vol 1378893, Sht 0608718 44.15% LHC 0.1300 0.1550 0.1320 b:s 1.06:1
0415 Vol 1357355, Sht 0365403 26.92% LHC 0.1350 0.1640 0.1450 b:s 1:2.07
0414 Vol 0449480, Sht 0115500 25.70% LHC 0.1593 0.1720 0.1600 b:s 1:1.31
0411 Vol 0876417, Sht 0092234 10.52% LHC 0.1600 0.1829 0.1645 b:s 1:4.86
0410 Vol 0240209, Sht 0038509 16.03% LHC 0.1750 0.1900 0.1760 b:s 1:2.04
0409 Vol 1549619, Sht 0399643 25.79% LHC 0.1750 1.1839 0.1751 b:s 1:1.82
0408 Vol 1482262, Sht 0223389 15.07% LHC 0.1691 0.1850 0.1720 b:s 1:3.16
0407 Vol 1366662, Sht 0379098 27.74% LHC 0.1800 0.1940 0.1810 b:s 1:1.59
0404 Vol 2004991, Sht 0879049 43.84% LHC 0.1770 0.1970 0.1860 b:s 1.20:1 [132]
0403 Vol 2637342, Sht 0804253 30.49% LHC 0.1751 0.2000 0.1800 b:s 1.09:1
0402 Vol 1086320, Sht 0247942 22.82% LHC 0.1700 0.1800 0.1797 b:s 1:1.91[131]
0401 Vol 2487682, Sht 1004392 40.37% LHC 0.1503 0.1800 0.1789 b:s 1.21:1
0331 Vol 0716801, Sht 0258136 36.01% LHC 0.1570 0.1793 0.1698 b:s 1:1.57[130]
0328 Vol 0614691, Sht 0314460 51.16% LHC 0.1567 0.1790 0.1622 b:s 1.18:1
0327 Vol 1980546, Sht 0616650 31.14% LHC 0.1500 0.1660 0.1582 b:s 1:2.41
0326 Vol 1410109, Sht 0496517 35.21% LHC 0.1640 0.1750 0.1661 b:s 1:2.28
0325 Vol 0630326, Sht 0260578 41.34% LHC 0.1630 0.1780 0.1699 b:s 1.37:1
0324 Vol 0493200, Sht 0132511 26.87% LHC 0.1620 0.1800 0.1700 b:s 1:2.59
0321 Vol 0338960, Sht 0082000 24.19% LHC 0.1650 0.1750 0.1703 b:s 1:1.23
0320 Vol 0360913, Sht 0255063 70.67% LHC 0.1621 0.1700 0.1650 b:s 3.59:1
0319 Vol 0152034, Sht 0074149 48.77% LHC 0.1550 0.1749 0.1680 b:s 3.05:1
0318 Vol 0492742, Sht 0117468 23.84% LHC 0.1550 0.1765 0.1680 b:s 1.28:1
0317 Vol 1210989, Sht 0454724 37.55% LHC 0.1630 0.1800 0.1675 b:s 2.18:1
0314 Vol 0775124, Sht 0296250 38.22% LHC 0.1530 0.1699 0.1630 b:s 3.23:1
0313 Vol 0238513, Sht 0053733 22.53% LHC 0.1532 0.1629 0.1598 b:s 2.08:1
0312 Vol 1203494, Sht 0146037 12.13% LHC 0.1500 0.1750 0.1600 b:s 1:2.65
0311 Vol 0950331, Sht 0420954 44.30% LHC 0.1726 0.1870 0.1752 b:s 1:1.22
0310 Vol 4605367, Sht 1306110 28.36% LHC 0.1602 0.2310 0.1800 b:s 1:1.31[129]
0307 Vol 5359392, Sht 1573661 29.36% LHC 0.1500 0.2199 0.2000 b:s 1.20:1
0306 Vol 5867182, Sht 1529792 26.07% LHC 0.1330 0.1510 0.1500 b:s 1:1.22[128]
0305 Vol 4198959, Sht 1718581 40.93% LHC 0.0999 0.1335 0.1335 b:s 1.05:1
0304 Vol 2651888, Sht 0722884 27.26% LHC 0.0950 0.1010 0.0999 b:s 1:2.33
0303 Vol 0772417, Sht 0166018 21.49% LHC 0.0952 0.1050 0.0962 b:s 1:1.36
[128] There were 5 premarket trades for 85K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 5,867,182 to 5,952,182 and would lower the short percentage from 26.07% to 25.70%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 1,529,792 to 1,614,792 and the short percentage would be 27.13%.
[129] There were 4 premarket trades for 32.5K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 4,605,367 to 4,637,867 and would lower the short percentage from 28.36% to 28.16%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 1,306,110 to 1,338,610 and the short percentage would be 28.86%.
[130] There was 1 afterhours trade for 70K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 716,801 to 786,801 and would lower the short percentage from 36.01% to 32.81%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 258,136 to 328,136 and the short percentage would be 41.71%.
[131] There were 5 premarket trades for 30K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,086,320 to 1,116,320 and would lower the short percentage from 22.82% to 22.21%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 247,942 to 277,942 and the short percentage would be 24.90%.
[132] There was 1 premarket trade for 3.5K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 2,004,991 to 2,008,491 and would lower the short percentage from 42.84% to 43.77%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 879,049 to 882,549 and the short percentage would be 43.94%.
04/29/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 35, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol: 207614, AvTrSz: 5932
Min. Pr: 0.1430, Max Pr: 0.1550, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1460
# Buys, Shares: 21 118865, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1461
# Sells, Shares: 14 88749, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1459
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.34:1 (57.25% "buys"), DlyShts 67066 (32.30%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 75.57%
Yesterday, while laying out factors that suggested to me that lower price range coming, I said "Don't be fooled by the traditional TA charts  the high and close of the day was a single isolated 5K trade at $0.1498 at 15:59:51  can't slice that much thinner. The next highest price was $0.1476 that had multiple trades and some volume". I thought price would tend to trend lower nearterm.
I read today's action the same and today we have a double oddity in the trading to consider. Only two trades occurred before 10:12  one set the high for the day and the other the low. No other trades occurred anywhere near these two extremes. See the comments below for a listing of the next higher low price and next lower high prices. In summary we had a 3K trade of $0.155 at the open that set the high and a 500 share trade at $0.1430 that set the low.
ARCA played a little hitandrun today from around 12:45 through 13:30. In the cases I spotted they had a $0.145 offer which undercut the higher offers, $0.147 and $0.1469.
As with yesterday, my nontraditional stuff continues indicating lower price. VWAP was showing weakening in the 10 and 25day averages and has added the 5 and 50day averages to the weakening set. Average trade size continues to weaken, expected with the extremely low volume though, along with average trade volume for all my periods.
Our VWAP, at $0.1460, is below the stillrising 50day SMA, $0.1483, for the second consecutive day.
$0.15 has now established itself as a very strong resistance.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is: $0.1173 vs. $0.1153, $0.1135, $0.1114, $0.1093, $0.1071, $0.1049, $0.1029, $0.1012 and $0.0996 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1168 vs. $0.1152, $0.1177, $0.1198, $0.1196, $0.1180, $0.1148, $0.1075, $0.1100 and $0.1154 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 5.85%, 3.47%, 1.43%, 54.33% and 0.70% respectively. Price spread today was 8.39% vs. 10.88%, 3.38%, 4.76%, 2.37%, 7.86%, 7.14%, 13.76%, 19.23% and 21.48% on prior days.
The high and low of the day were each set by single trades: 500 shares at $0.1430 at 9:53:13 set the low and 3K shares at $0.1550 at the open, 9:30:08 set the high. These were the only two trades prior to 10:12. The next higher low was $0.1450 with lots of trades and plenty of volume and the next lower highs were $0.1499 (3,567 shares) and $0.1498 (100 shares). Then $0.1490, one trade for 20K shares, and a couple at $0.1470 totaling 24K shares. I'd be comfortable thinking of the real low as $0.1450 and the real high as $0.1490.
If we use $0.1450 as the low and $0.1490 as the high, our low and high movements become 7.33% and 0.53% respectively instead of 5.85% and 3.47%. Our spread would be 2.76% instead of 8.39%.
Today had volume down ~54% from yesterday, making very low volume for the fifth consecutive day.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 5 of the 35 trades, 14.29%. These 96,129 shares were 46.30% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1462. 3 of the larger trades, 60.00%, were buys of 56,129 shares, 58.39% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1457. 2 of the larger trades, 40.00%, were sells of 40,000 shares, 41.61% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1470.
The other 30 trades, 85.71% of the day's trades, traded 111,485 shares, 53.70% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1459. 18 trades, 60.00%, were buys and accounted for 62,736 shares, 56.27% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1465. 12 trades, 40.00%, were sells and accounted for 48,749 shares, 43.73% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1451.
Full stochastic had climbed into overbought yesterday. I said on low and falling volume I thought it was not a good sign. Today it fell right out of overbought, a continued "not a good sign", even with the abysmal volume of today.
The Bollinger's lower limit yesterday was still descending at a rate similar to the last few days and had a $0.1290 reading, sitting atop the 200day SMA of $0.1288. I said it should drop below the 200day SMA tomorrow. Done! Today the lower limit of $0.1273 allows a greater possibility of a move to test the support of the 200day SMA, which sits at $0.1288 again. Thankfully that SMA has gone flat and should remain so for two more days if we hold our current price range. Thereafter it would start a very slow rise if we stay in our current range.
The Bollinger's upper limit has started a very slow degradation. It should not accelerate for a few more days.
Momentum again managed to remain out of oversold for the fourth day with a reading of 0.8239, down slight from yesterday's 0.855 and the prior 0.8430 reading. Still below neutral.
ADX and related, which started getting serious about weakening yesterday, made an anemic attempt at showing improvement. With now low volume, it couldn't do much more than that. Let's see if it can sustain or rolls over again.
Friday I said it wouldn't be surprising to see the daily short percentage bounce off the trend line I had on the chart. Yesterday's slightly improved buy percentage and the daily short sales percentage did what they should and the daily short percentage bounced a bit off the trend line, moving to 14.65% from 11.05%. Today the buy percentage moved to 57.3% from 21.8% and the daily short percentage behaved "properly", continuing the bounce by going from yesterday's 14.65% to 32.3% today. Since it moved above all it's averages today and volume is abysmal, I'm unsure whether to look for continued rise, maybe up near or above the 40% area, or if it should start a small leg down next. With only one day of "strong" buy percentage, I don't suspect pressure downward due to mechanical effects yet.
My original inflection point calculations, which were really uncertain in the oneday changes yesterday with one improved reading, two weaker and three I'll judge as essentially flat, switched to five periods improved and only one weaker today. The aggregate fiveday changes went from four slightly improved periods and two slightly weaker to three improved, two weaker and one essentially flat. The average change over those days switched to two improved and four weaker from yesterday's three improved, two weakened and one I call flat.
The newer version's oneday changes switched to five improved and one weaker from yesterday's one improved and five weaker periods. Change over five days continues with all periods weaker for the second consecutive day, with the average change over those five days also showing all periods weakened for the second consecutive day.
The newer inflection point calculations' chart pattern is a little less negative today. But nothing should be taken from this considering the very weak volume and this being the first day of reduction in negative bias.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. NOTE! The first period was two trades that set the high of the day at the open, $0.1550 on 3K shares and the low of the day at $0.1430 on 500 shares at 9:53:13.
09:3009:53: 003500 shrs, 01.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1533, 085.7% buys
10:1211:01: 027866 shrs, 13.42% of vol, VWAP $0.1471, 081.0% buys
11:3912:13: 028728 shrs, 13.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1462, 060.0% buys
12:3213:04: 061100 shrs, 29.43% of vol, VWAP $0.1463, 049.4% buys
13:1113:55: 042500 shrs, 20.47% of vol, VWAP $0.1451, 091.8% buys
15:1515:55: 043920 shrs, 21.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1452, 015.6% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range. NOTE! The first price was a single trade that set the day's low at 09:53;13. The late price is a single trade at the open, 9:30:08, that set the high of the day.
$0.1430$0.1430: 000500 shrs, 00.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1430, 000.0% buys
$0.1450$0.1457: 135349 shrs, 65.19% of vol, VWAP $0.1450, 049.6% buys
$0.1460$0.1469: 021098 shrs, 10.16% of vol, VWAP $0.1466, 100.0% buys
$0.1470$0.1470: 024000 shrs, 11.56% of vol, VWAP $0.1470, 100.0% buys
$0.1490$0.1499: 023667 shrs, 11.40% of vol, VWAP $0.1491, 015.5% buys
$0.1550$0.1550: 003000 shrs, 01.44% of vol, VWAP $0.1550, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
04/10 $0.1782 00.54% 32.9%
04/11 $0.1689 05.18% 17.0%
04/14 $0.1641 02.87% 43.3%
04/15 $0.1443 12.06% 32.2%
04/16 $0.1375 04.70% 50.9%
04/17 $0.1344 02.30% 53.2%
04/21 $0.1435 +04.29% 25.2%
04/22 $0.1475 +02.74% 64.5%
04/23 $0.1495 +01.38% 71.3%
04/24 $0.1497 +00.15% 15.6%
04/25 $0.1471 01.75% 19.7%
04/28 $0.1440 02.14% 21.8%
04/29 $0.1460 +01.43% 57.3%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
04/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1442, x 80%: $0.1153
04/29: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1466, x 80%: $0.1173
Vol in K, for above days: 454.60 207.61
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
04/28/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 67, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol: 454596, AvTrSz: 6785
Min. Pr: 0.1351, Max Pr: 0.1498, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1440
# Buys, Shares: 22 99077, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1455
# Sells, Shares: 44 340519, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1435
# Unkn, Shares: 1 15000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1450
Buy:Sell 1:3.44 (21.79% "buys"), DlyShts 66600 (14.65%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 19.56%
Yesterday, Friday, seemed to confirm that a move lower was coming as predicted, as we had low, high, VWAP and volume all lower, and seemed to also confirm we might be consolidating. Today continued to support that thesis as we have continued low volume and lower VWAP. Including two abnormal trades, we also had a lower low and high. If I discount those two trades, we still have a lower low and high and a compressed range of 4.79% instead of the 10.88% spread shown when including those two trades. Don't be fooled by the traditional TA charts  the high and close of the day was a single isolated 5K trade at $0.1498 at 15:59:51  can't slice that much thinner. The next highest price was $0.1476 that had multiple trades and some volume.
Yesterday my nontraditional stuff also suggested we'd be moving a bit lower, based on such as average trade size, average buy percentage, average short percentage and average volume all weakening and quite low. VWAP was showing weakening in the 10 and 25day averages. I suspected we'd revisit the 200day SMA as a first test of what might be the lower bound of consolidation, if that's what we're doing here.
Today doesn't do anything to change that thought.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is 04/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1442, x 80%: $0.1153 vs. $0.1135, $0.1114, $0.1093, $0.1071, $0.1049, $0.1029, $0.1012, $0.0996 and $0.0979 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1152 vs. $0.1177, $0.1198, $0.1196, $0.1180, $0.1148, $0.1075, $0.1100, $0.1154 and $0.1313 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 6.83%, 0.07%, 2.14%, 0.69%, +0.69% respectively. Price spread today was 10.88% vs. 3.38%, 4.76%, 2.37%, 7.86%, 7.14%, 13.76%, 19.23%, 21.48% and 7.97% on prior days.
The low of the day was set by a single trade of 1100 shares at $0.1351at 10:33. The high of the day was set with a single trade of5000 shares at $0.1498 at 15:59. You can't cut it much finer than that if you want to make sure you have a high close. Neither of these trades had any price near them. The next lowest trade was $0.1400 and had multiple trades and some volume. The next highest trade was $0.1467 and had multiple trades and some volume.
If we use $0.14 as the low and $0.1467 as the high, our low and high movements become 3.45% and 2.13% respectively instead of the percentages reported above. Our spread would be 4.79%.
Today had marginally better, but still very low, volume for the fourth consecutive day.
The larger trades (>= 14.9K  special for today only to include 1 more trade) occurred on 9 of the 67 trades, 13.43%. These 250,300 shares were 55.06% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1439. 0 of these trades were buys. 8 of the larger trades, 88.89%, were sells of 235,300 shares, 94.01% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1438. 1 of the larger trades, 11.11%, were "unknowns" of 15,000 shares, 5.99% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1450.
The other 58 trades, 86.57% of the day's trades, traded 204,296 shares, 44.94% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1441. 22 trades, 37.93%, were buys and accounted for 99,077 shares, 48.50% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1455. 36 trades, 62.07%, were sells and accounted for 105,219 shares, 51.50% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1427.
Full stochastic, which had been climbing, made overbought today. On low and falling volume I think this is not a good sign.
The Bollinger's lower limit is still descending at a rate similar to the last few days and is now, with a $0.1290 reading, sitting atop the 200day SMA of $0.1288. It should drop below the 200day SMA tomorrow. This doesn't assure a down move and is not a traditional TA consideration. All it suggests is that a normal two standard deviations "violation" wouldn't occur if the 200day SMA was touched.
Momentum managed to remain out of oversold for the third day with a reading of 0.855, slightly improved from yesterday's 0.8430 reading. Still below neutral.
ADX and related, finally gave up on remaining flat, fulfilling the promise of the early signs of weakening which had evaporated for one day. Low volume or not, it's getting serious about weakening now.
Our VWAP, $0.1471 yesterday, had remained slightly above the rising 50day SMA of $0.1465. No such luck today with a VWAP of $0.1440 and 50day SMA of $0.1474.
I mentioned two days ago that short percentage was making a down leg, common with low volume and especially after several days of strong buy percentage and high daily short percentage. I said if my thoughts about the mechanics of trading that cause this cyclicality are in the ballpark the percentage should start to rise again in two days or so. It dropped some more to 11.05%, consistent with our very low 19.7% buy percentage yesterday, and touched a lower trend line that I had tentatively added. I said it wouldn't be surprising to see a bounce off this line. Today had a slightly improved buy percentage and the daily short sales percentage did what it should  bounced a bit off the trend line, moving to 14.65% today. With volume so low I can't suggest the odds are strong that it will move higher or lower, but the tendency has been to creep up a couple days at a time at least.
My original inflection point calculations are really uncertain in the oneday changes, with one improved reading, two weaker and three I'll judge as essentially flat. The aggregate fiveday changes have four slightly improved periods and two slightly weaker. The rate of change over those days has three improved averages, two weakened and one I call flat.
The newer version's oneday changes have 1 improved and five weaker periods. Change over five days has all periods weaker and the average change over those five days has all periods weakened as well.
The newer inflection point calculations' chart pattern continues strongly negative today. Even with continued low volume, which made me loathe to place too much weight on it yesterday, I have to say lower price looks most likely to continue.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3010:01: 150931 shrs, 33.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1452, 019.0% buys
10:0610:16: 100669 shrs, 22.14% of vol, VWAP $0.1446, 011.4% buys
10:2910:34: 078124 shrs, 17.19% of vol, VWAP $0.1399, 000.0% buys
11:1813:46: 024230 shrs, 05.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1437, 088.6% buys
14:2714:58: 028000 shrs, 06.16% of vol, VWAP $0.1441, 057.1% buys
15:1515:39: 040000 shrs, 08.80% of vol, VWAP $0.1440, 025.0% buys
15:4715:59: 032642 shrs, 07.18% of vol, VWAP $0.1458, 035.2% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1351$0.1351: 001100 shrs, 00.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1351, 000.0% buys
$0.1400$0.1410: 079796 shrs, 17.55% of vol, VWAP $0.1401, 000.0% buys
$0.1424$0.1435: 041000 shrs, 09.02% of vol, VWAP $0.1429, 014.6% buys
$0.1440$0.1457: 304700 shrs, 67.03% of vol, VWAP $0.1449, 021.4% buys
$0.1467$0.1467: 023000 shrs, 05.06% of vol, VWAP $0.1467, 100.0% buys
$0.1498$0.1498: 005000 shrs, 01.10% of vol, VWAP $0.1498, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
04/09 $0.1791 +02.54% 35.5%
04/10 $0.1782 00.54% 32.9%
04/11 $0.1689 05.18% 17.0%
04/14 $0.1641 02.87% 43.3%
04/15 $0.1443 12.06% 32.2%
04/16 $0.1375 04.70% 50.9%
04/17 $0.1344 02.30% 53.2%
04/21 $0.1435 +04.29% 25.2%
04/22 $0.1475 +02.74% 64.5%
04/23 $0.1495 +01.38% 71.3%
04/24 $0.1497 +00.15% 15.6%
04/25 $0.1471 01.75% 19.7%
04/28 $0.1440 02.14% 21.8%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
04/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1442, x 80%: $0.1153
Vol in K, for above days: 454.60
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
04/25/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 52, MinTrSz: 55, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol: 451465, AvTrSz: 8682
Min. Pr: 0.1450, Max Pr: 0.1499, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1471
# Buys, Shares: 13 88828, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1482
# Sells, Shares: 39 362637, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1468
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:4.08 (19.68% "buys"), DlyShts 49900 (11.05%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 13.76%
Yesterday I noted that with buy percentage down to ~15%, meaning sells were around 85%, I suspected the effort to penetrate $0.15 was nearing an end and said if so we should expect some price weakening that might take another day or two to appear. Today seems to fill the bill as we had low, high, VWAP and volume all lower. Elsewhere I had also suggested it was beginning to look like we might be consolidating. This fits that scenario as well since consolidation will typically have generally reduced volumes with sporadic compressed prices mixed with a general movement within a range, the lower bound of which we don't yet know. But we can say that the upper bound is at ~$0.15.
My nontradition stuff suggests we'll be moving a bit lower. Average trade size, average buy percentage, average short percentage and average volume are all weakening and quite low. VWAP is showing weakening in the 10 and 25day averages as well. As mentioned, I suspect we'll revisit the 200day SMA as a first test of what might be the lower bound of consolidation, if that's what we're doing here. Since the 200day SMA is still falling very slowly, I'm guessing something in the $0.128 area would be a reasonable expectation, depending on how long it takes to get there.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.1135 vs. $0.1114, $0.1093, $0.1071, $0.1049, $0.1029, $0.1012, $0.0996, $0.0979 and $0.0954 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1177 vs. $0.1198, $0.1196, $0.1180, $0.1148, $0.1075, $0.1100, $0.1154, $0.1313 and $0.1351 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.07%, 1.38%, 1.75%, 96.25% and 41.58% respectively. Price spread today was 3.38% vs. 4.76%, 2.37%, 7.86%, 7.14%, 13.76%, 19.23%, 21.48%, 7.97% and 14.31% on prior days.
The low and high of the day were set with trades with volume and within reach of other trades near the same price ranges so I think no consideration of the above metrics sans those trades is worthwhile.
Today had better, but still low, volume for the third consecutive day. A few larger trades saved us from seeing a 221.2K day, barely above 4/23's ~211K.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 6 of the 52 trades, 11.54%. These 229,300 shares were 50.79% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1478. 1 of these trades, 16.67%, were buys of 35,000 shares, 15.26% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1499. 5 of the larger trades, 83.33%, were sells of 194,300 shares, 84.74% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1474.
The other 46 trades, 88.46% of the day's trades, traded 222,165 shares, 49.21% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1465. 12 trades, 26.09%, were buys and accounted for 53,828 shares, 24.23% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1471. 34 trades, 73.91%, were sells and accounted for 168,337 shares, 75.77% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1463.
Full stochastic, which made it into neutral territory yesterday to ~58, today continues its upward movement with a ~64.9 reading. Unfortunately it is the only reading that's not either flat or weakening.
The Bollinger's lower limit is still descending at a rate similar to the last few days. It's moved to $0.1301 from $0.1316 and $0.133 on prior days. Its now $0.0164, below the stillrising 50day SMA of $0.1465 and barely above the current 200day SMA, down to $0.1287 from the prior $0.1288. The upper limit has now started to weaken, albeit minimally, and will begin to accelerate lower in a couple days if we just stay in this range of trading.
Momentum managed to remain out of oversold for the second day with a reading of 0.8430, slightly improved from yesterday's 0.8287 reading.
ADX and related, remained flat as the ADX itself started showing early signs of weakening again. I mentioned yesterday the early signs had evaporated. Still too soon to read much into it with low volume.
Our VWAP of $0.1471, down from yesterday's $0.1497, remains slightly above the rising 50day SMA of $0.1465. We've now closed above it five of the last seven days and below two of those days. I had mentioned that the $0.15 resistance seemed to be holding strong so I didn't know how long this situation might maintain. My best estimate now is we'll close below the 50day SMA in the next few days unless a surprising push up in both price and volume appears.
I mentioned yesterday that short percentage was making a down leg right now, common with low volume and especially after several days of strong buy percentage and high daily short percentage. I said I don't know how far it might drop, but if my thoughts about the mechanics of trading that cause this cyclicality are in the ballpark the percentage should start to rise again in two days or so. Today it dropped some more to 11.05%, consistent with our very low 19.7% buy percentage. If buy percentage doesn't come back to more normal levels, the short percentage could remain low for a longer period. However, it has now touched a lower trend line that had begun to develop. It wouldn't be surprising to see a bounce off this line.
My original inflection point calculations absolutely trashed the signs of improvement that had been trying to appear in the oneday changes. Today all periods weakened, and a couple periods were not really small moves. The same holds for the change over fivedays, although it had started showing increasing weakness yesterday. Rate of change over those days moved from four improved and only two weaker to only two improved and four weaker now. Most of the changes were small but the fiveday period was noticeably larger than the other periods.
The newer version's oneday changes started weakening yesterday by moving from all improved for five days to only two improved and four weaker. The weakening trend increased today by going to all periods weaker. Some of the changes weren't very small either. Change over five days, which was 5 weaker periods and the 10day period flat, also moved to all periods weaker, several with decentsized moves. The average change over five days reversed course, switching from five periods improving and one weaker to all periods showing weakening with some of the moves not at all small.
The newer version's chart pattern broke strongly negative today. If we had more volume I would not hesitate to suggest continued downward price movement nearterm. With low volume though, it's not prudent to place too much weight on it yet. I can say, with confidence, that there is no hint of upward movement now, contrary to my thoughts yesterday that it might be showing price stabilization in the cards.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3010:00: 032555 shrs, 07.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1481, 000.0% buys
10:0410:36: 095203 shrs, 21.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1469, 015.6% buys
11:4212:29: 045000 shrs, 09.97% of vol, VWAP $0.1451, 000.0% buys
12:4913:37: 032207 shrs, 07.13% of vol, VWAP $0.1453, 012.7% buys
13:4213:57: 053600 shrs, 11.87% of vol, VWAP $0.1487, 013.1% buys
14:1714:51: 056500 shrs, 12.51% of vol, VWAP $0.1492, 079.6% buys
15:1915:31: 098000 shrs, 21.71% of vol, VWAP $0.1472, 000.0% buys
15:3815:59: 038400 shrs, 08.51% of vol, VWAP $0.1453, 046.6% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1450$0.1460: 125007 shrs, 27.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1452, 014.3% buys
$0.1470$0.1476: 225458 shrs, 49.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1472, 011.5% buys
$0.1490$0.1499: 101000 shrs, 22.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1494, 044.6% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
04/08 $0.1747 04.78% 24.0%
04/09 $0.1791 +02.54% 35.5%
04/10 $0.1782 00.54% 32.9%
04/11 $0.1689 05.18% 17.0%
04/14 $0.1641 02.87% 43.3%
04/15 $0.1443 12.06% 32.2%
04/16 $0.1375 04.70% 50.9%
04/17 $0.1344 02.30% 53.2%
04/21 $0.1435 +04.29% 25.2%
04/22 $0.1475 +02.74% 64.5%
04/23 $0.1495 +01.38% 71.3%
04/24 $0.1497 +00.15% 15.6%
04/25 $0.1471 01.75% 19.7%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
04/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1311, x 80%: $0.1049
04/22: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1338, x 80%: $0.1071
04/23: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1366, x 80%: $0.1093
04/24: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1393, x 80%: $0.1114
04/25: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1418, x 80%: $0.1135
Vol in K, for above days: 436.92 942.46 210.87 230.04 451.47
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
04/24/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 46, MinTrSz: 7, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol: 230043, AvTrSz: 5001
Min. Pr: 0.1451, Max Pr: 0.1520, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1497
# Buys, Shares: 8 35810, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1506
# Sells, Shares: 38 194233, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1496
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:5.42 (15.57% "buys"), DlyShts 35245 (15.32%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 18.15%
With today's buy percentage down to ~15%, meaning sells were around 85%, I suspect the effort to penetrate $0.15 is nearing an end. If so, we should expect some price weakening. Might take another day or two to appear, but it's the most likely looking outcome for now IMO. Keep in mind the very few trades above $0.15 I detail below  no volume to speak of above $0.15.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.1114 vs. $0.1093, $0.1071, $0.1049, $0.1029, $0.1012, $0.0996, $0.0979, $0.0954 and $0.0929 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1198 vs. $0.1196, $0.1180, $0.1148, $0.1075, $0.1100, $0.1154, $0.1313, $0.1351 and $0.1425 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 1.63%, 0.66%, 0.15%, 9.09% and 13.40% respectively. Price spread today was 4.76% vs. 2.37%, 7.86%, 7.14%, 13.76%, 19.23%, 21.48%, 7.97%, 14.31% and 8.57% on prior days.
The low and high of the day was one trade each today. The low was set at the open with a 3.5K trade at $0.1451. The next lowest was $0.1472 with six trades for ~22.6K shares. The high for the day was for 10K at $0.1520 at 12:37. The next highest was $0.1519 in two trades of 2K and 215 shares and then $0.151 with a lot of trades and volume. Using $0.1472 and $0.151 for our low and high, the changes for low and high become 0.20% and 0.00% respectively, and the spread becomes 2.58%.
Today had very low volume, like yesterday, but it was not consistent throughout the day, unlike yesterday. Price was generally stable.
There were only two "larger" trades (>= 15K) today  both for $0.15 and of sizes 15K and 25K. These went off at 13:10 and 13:08 respectively.
Yesterday I said "This is starting to look a lot like "consolidation"  a sideways trading pattern for a period, ...". Today reinforces that assessment IMO. If you consider my comments above are valid about the low and high for the day, it looks even more so.
Full stochastic, made it into neutral territory, up from ~37 yesterday to ~58 today.
The Bollinger's lower limit is still descending at a rate similar to the last few days. It's currently at $0.1316, down from $0.133 yesterday, and about 11/2 penny below the 50day SMA of $0.1457 and above the current 200day SMA, still at $0.1288.
Momentum, which reentered oversold yesterday at 0.7935, exited it again today with an 0.8287 reading. That's two cycles of doing that  uncertainty of direction is indicated.
ADX and related remains flat as the ADX itself continues weakening. The early signs of weakening I mentioned yesterday have evaporated. Yesterday I said it was too soon to read much into it with low volume. Ditto for today.
Our VWAP of $0.1497, up from yesterday's $0.1495, remains slightly above the rising 50day SMA of $0.1457. We've now closed above it four of the last six days and below two of those days. But that $0.15 resistance seems to be holding strong, so I don't know how long this situation might maintain. The 50day will continue to rise for quite some time if price remains in this range. In a week or so we could see consistent closes below the 50day SMA.
Short percentage is making a down leg right now, common with low volume and especially with several days of strong buy percentage and high daily short percentage. I don't know how far it might drop, but if my thoughts about the mechanics of trading that cause this cyclicality are in the ballpark the percentage should start to rise again in two days or so.
My original inflection point calculations changed from five improved, and only the 200day period weaker, to four improved and 5 and 25 day periods weaker. The change over fivedays moved from five periods improved and one weaker to two improved and four weaker, which includes the three shortest periods weaker. Rate of change over those days moved from five periods weaker to four improved and only two weaker now.
The newer version's oneday changes moved from all improved for the fifth day to only two improved and four weaker, including the 5 and 25day periods. Change over five days also moved from all periods improved for the fourth consecutive day to 5 weaker periods and the 10day period flat. The average change over five days switched to five periods improving and one weaker from three improved and three weakened.
The newer version's chart pattern broke the "continues to improve. Likely upward movement in price is more strongly suggested now, but we've still not gotten the pattern yet that says it's very likely". I said yesterday I thought we were seeing the chart just showing price stabilizing after a long period of inexorable downward movement. Today seems to support that thesis.
ARCA was in the market again on both the buy and sell side with a $0.135 x 7K bid, up 1/2 penny, and the usual 4K $0.249 offer again. Since they appear to be on track to be a less influential factor, as MrI has noted in the concentrator, I'll stop commenting on them unless I see something noteworthy.
WABR is the more aggressive marketmaker for now, along with that nasty 1/100th pennyplayer, ATDF.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:52: 018500 shrs, 08.04% of vol, VWAP $0.1481, 000.0% buys
10:5111:19: 032133 shrs, 13.97% of vol, VWAP $0.1478, 000.0% buys
11:3212:00: 046557 shrs, 20.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1503, 051.1% buys
12:0113:07: 031700 shrs, 13.78% of vol, VWAP $0.1512, 000.0% buys
13:0814:01: 044215 shrs, 19.22% of vol, VWAP $0.1501, 009.5% buys
14:3014:42: 008607 shrs, 03.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1500, 000.0% buys
15:3415:49: 020886 shrs, 09.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1500, 000.0% buys
15:5015:59: 027445 shrs, 11.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1496, 028.4% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1451$0.1451: 003500 shrs, 01.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1451, 000.0% buys
$0.1472$0.1490: 063690 shrs, 27.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1482, 000.0% buys
$0.1500$0.1500: 105488 shrs, 45.86% of vol, VWAP $0.1500, 016.9% buys
$0.1510$0.1510: 045150 shrs, 19.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1510, 035.0% buys
$0.1519$0.1519: 002215 shrs, 00.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1519, 100.0% buys
$0.1520$0.1520: 010000 shrs, 04.35% of vol, VWAP $0.1520, 000.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
04/07 $0.1834 02.52% 38.2%
04/08 $0.1747 04.78% 24.0%
04/09 $0.1791 +02.54% 35.5%
04/10 $0.1782 00.54% 32.9%
04/11 $0.1689 05.18% 17.0%
04/14 $0.1641 02.87% 43.3%
04/15 $0.1443 12.06% 32.2%
04/16 $0.1375 04.70% 50.9%
04/17 $0.1344 02.30% 53.2%
04/21 $0.1435 +04.29% 25.2%
04/22 $0.1475 +02.74% 64.5%
04/23 $0.1495 +01.38% 71.3%
04/24 $0.1497 +00.15% 15.6%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
04/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1311, x 80%: $0.1049
04/22: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1338, x 80%: $0.1071
04/23: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1366, x 80%: $0.1093
04/24: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1393, x 80%: $0.1114
Vol in K, for above days: 436.92 942.46 210.87 230.04
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
04/23/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 40, MinTrSz: 355, MaxTrSz: 28100, Vol: 210873, AvTrSz: 5272
Min. Pr: 0.1475, Max Pr: 0.1510, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1495
# Buys, Shares: 28 150355, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1502
# Sells, Shares: 12 60518, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1478
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 2.48:1 (71.30% "buys"), DlyShts 40700 (19.30%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 67.25%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.1093 vs. $0.1071, $0.1049, $0.1029, $0.1012, $0.0996, $0.0979, $0.0954, $0.0929 and $0.0904 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1196 vs. $0.1180, $0.1148, $0.1075, $0.1100, $0.1154, $0.1313, $0.1351, $0.1425 and $0.1485 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 5.36%, 0.00%, 1.38%, 77.63% and 92.09% respectively. Price spread today was 2.37% vs. 7.86%, 7.14%, 13.76%, 19.23%, 21.48%, 7.97%, 14.31%, 8.57% and 5.71% on prior days.
The high of the day was one trade, at 14:20, of 28.1K shares for $0.1510. The next highest was $0.1509 in two trades of 5K each and then $0.1505 in one trade at 5K. We finally got a lot of trades and volume at $0.15.
Today had very low volume but it was fairly consistent throughout the day, unlike yesterday. Price was generally stable, with only a $0.0035 spread.
There was only one "larger" trade today  28.1K at $0.1510, the day's high.
After suggesting that the volume and action yesterday "... supports the possibility that further downward movement is less likely nearterm ..." and then listing some reasons, I ended with "... If today's behavior appears again, I suspect some appreciation may occur. But I am suspicious because resistance was seen at $0.15 and the last two trades at EOD were out of character for the trading around them. Add that the last trade was 200 shares ...".
Well, today had very low volume again and a very small price range. Even a 71.3% "buy" percentage couldn't provide any volume or price movement. This is starting to look a lot like "consolidation"  a sideways trading pattern for a period, something we've seen many time before here. I should've considered this possibility sooner  when we started bumping up against $0.15. The trick will be guessing what the range of swings will be.
Full stochastic, which I mentioned has action not suggestive of a strong upward movement, continues to rise heading toward neutral with a current reading of ~37.
The Bollinger's lower limit is still descending, but at a reducing rate. It's currently at $0.133, about 1/2 penny above the current 200day SMA of $0.1288.
Momentum, which came out of oversold yesterday with a ~0.84 reading. Today is weakened a bit, likely due to the low volume, to ~79.4, putting it in oversold status again.
ADX and related remains flat as the ADX itself continues weakening. However, the first signs of early weakening have appeared. Too soon to read much into it with low volume.
Our VWAP of $0.1495 remains slightly above the 50day SMA of $0.1448. We've now closed above it three of the last five days and below two of those days.
Short percentage correlation, in both direction and magnitude, broke down today. This is not an unusual occurrence, as can be seen from looking at my charts. It happens most commonly in low volume periods and often after some really high short percentage readings. For those reasons, I don't read anything into it here, not even a suggestion of lower price commonly associated with falling short percentage.
My original inflection point calculations again have five improved and continues with only the 200day period weaker. The change over fivedays continues with five periods improved and one weaker. Rate of change over those days has five periods improved and one weakened vs. yesterday's four improved and two weakened.
The newer version's oneday changes continue with all improved for the fifth day. Change over five days continues with all periods improved for the fourth consecutive day. The average change over five days switched to five periods improving and one weaker from three improved and three weakened.
The newer version's chart pattern continues to improve. Likely upward movement in price is more strongly suggested now, but we've still not gotten the pattern yet that says it's very likely. I'm think with only the fiveday period positive and no suggestion of "the pattern" yet, we're seeing the chart just showing price stabilizing after a long period of inexorable downward movement.
ARCA was in the market again on both the buy and sell side with a $0.135 x 7K bid, up 1/2 penny, and the usual 4K $0.249 offer again. The offer was withdrawn almost immediately after the open and the bid did not disappear.
ARCA came back on the offer at 11:02 with a $0.15 x 6.4K. They left by 11:52 and returned at 12:30 with $0.15 x 6.8K. They were less aggressive and active today and left the market at 14:25. When they did move in the market it was the usual undercut to get the top of the heap position.
They appear to be on track to be a less influential factor, as MrI has noted in the concentrator. However, WABR is supplanting ARCA as the biggest threat to move price lower. They have consistently been relatively aggressive in trying to get shares sold, usually at least matching the best offers and occasionally exceeding it.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3010:53: 018700 shrs, 08.87% of vol, VWAP $0.1498, 100.0% buys
11:0111:59: 034168 shrs, 16.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1500, 093.9% buys
12:0112:30: 028200 shrs, 13.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1500, 082.3% buys
12:3714:05: 025005 shrs, 11.86% of vol, VWAP $0.1476, 001.4% buys
14:2014:21: 070000 shrs, 33.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1505, 100.0% buys
14:5715:53: 034800 shrs, 16.50% of vol, VWAP $0.1479, 017.2% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1475$0.1499: 089473 shrs, 42.43% of vol, VWAP $0.1484, 037.9% buys
$0.1500$0.1510: 121400 shrs, 57.57% of vol, VWAP $0.1503, 095.9% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
04/04 $0.1882 01.07% 54.1%
04/07 $0.1834 02.52% 38.2%
04/08 $0.1747 04.78% 24.0%
04/09 $0.1791 +02.54% 35.5%
04/10 $0.1782 00.54% 32.9%
04/11 $0.1689 05.18% 17.0%
04/14 $0.1641 02.87% 43.3%
04/15 $0.1443 12.06% 32.2%
04/16 $0.1375 04.70% 50.9%
04/17 $0.1344 02.30% 53.2%
04/21 $0.1435 +04.29% 25.2%
04/22 $0.1475 +02.74% 64.5%
04/23 $0.1495 +01.38% 71.3%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
04/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1311, x 80%: $0.1049
04/22: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1338, x 80%: $0.1071
04/23: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1366, x 80%: $0.1093
Vol in K, for above days: 436.92 942.46 210.87
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are are in the latest daily post above.
04/22/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 99, MinTrSz: 60, MaxTrSz: 93850, Vol: 942459, AvTrSz: 9520
Min. Pr: 0.1400, Max Pr: 0.1510, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1475
# Buys, Shares: 61 607589, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1488
# Sells, Shares: 38 334870, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1450
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.81:1 (64.47% "buys"), DlyShts 514439 (54.58%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 153.62%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.1071 vs. $0.1049, $0.1029, $0.1012, $0.0996, $0.0979, $0.0954, $0.0929, $0.0904 and $0.0884 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1180 vs. $0.1148, $0.1075, $0.1100, $0.1154, $0.1313, $0.1351, $0.1425, $0.1485 and $0.1397 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, 0.67%, 2.74%, 115.71% and 493.22% respectively. Price spread today was 7.86% vs. 7.14%, 13.76%, 19.23%, 21.48%, 7.97%, 14.31%, 8.57% 5.71% and 9.40% on prior days.
The low of the day was one trade, at 11:40, of 500 shares for $0.1400. The next lowest was $0.1410 that had reasonable volume in four trades and were within range of other trades. Using $0.1410 as the low would put the movement of the low at 0.71% and the spread at 7.09%.
Today had very low volume early and we didn't see any real volume and frequency of trades begin until around 14:30. Through 12:24 only 21.83% of the days volume traded. Price generally weakened, but only around 1/2 penny during this period. There were no more trades until 14:36.
At that point the flood gates opened with trading beginning at a VWAP of $0.147 for the period measured, well improved from the VWAP of $0.1412 for the period ending at 12:24. The period ending at 15:55 had a VWAP of $0.1443 on ~8.2% of the day's volume.
The last two trades of the day look suspicious to me  they were for $0.1509 and $0.151 for a 10K and 200 share trade. The last trade prior to those two was $0.1450 and the trades prior to that were mixed at $0.1425 to $0.1450. My guess is that the two trades at 15:56 were designed to show a close above the $0.15 resistance.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 9 of the 99 trades, 9.09% (same percentage second consecutive day!). These 340,280 shares were 36.11% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1486. 6 of these trades, 66.67% (double yesterday's), were buys of 274,280 shares, 80.60% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1495. 3 of the larger trades, 33.33%, were sells of 66,000 shares, 19.40% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1446.
The other 90 trades, 90.91% of the day's trades, traded 602,179 shares, 63.89% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1468. 55 trades, 61.11%, were buys and accounted for 333,309 shares, 55.35% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1482. 35 trades, 38.89%, were sells and accounted for 268,870 shares, 44.65% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1451.
Four days ago I suggested we still had some more movement down in our nearterm future and yesterday noted that had played out, although only within a range. Yesterday's low volume suggested it could be an indication that any lower movement was nearing an end, but thinking that would be ignoring the possible effects of a long holiday weekend which often produces lower volume as people dribble back into work.
Today's action supports the possibility that further downward movement is less likely nearterm. Even ignoring those two suspicious trades, we had higher volume with a higher VWAP and a higher close. Some of the traditional TA oscillators have begun to improve as well. This fits in with yesterday's "Nothing yet suggests that we won't go lower. Some traditional and nontraditional things continue to lean towards lower, but not as strongly or consistently as I would like in order to have conviction in that assessment". If today's behavior appears again, I suspect some appreciation may occur. But I am suspicious because resistance was seen at $0.15 and the last two trades at EOD were out of character for the trading around them. Add that the last trade was 200 shares ...
We continued to have improved lows if we discount a single 500 share trade at $0.14 today. The low would have been $0.141, which had a reasonable number of trades and volume and was within reasonable range of other trades.
Yesterday produced a "gravestone doji" candlestick, which is a reversal indicator, but unreliable since it predicts accurately only 51% of the time according to Bulkowski. It operates in both directions though and I suggested it was as likely we'd see a move up as down. Looking critically at the action, only some of my nontraditional metrics, like VWAP and inflection point calculations, suggest that we had a reversal up from our recent down trend. Our price range was predominately within the prior day's, even retaining those two suspicious EOD trades, exceeding yesterday's high by only 1/10th of a penny.
So I am suspicious, but can't decide that we won't see upward movement ... or downward movement.
Full stochastic, exited oversold, but is still below neutral and is ramping higher. RSI improved to ~47 from yesterday's ~40.8 but remains below neutral. It's rate of change recently is not suggestive a strong upward movement. I suspect it's our $0.15 resistance showing its effect.
The Bollinger's lower limit is still descending, but at a reducing rate.
Momentum, which entered oversold yesterday, at ~0.78, came out of oversold today with a ~0.84 reading.
ADX and related remains flat as the ADX itself continues weakening.
Our VWAP of $0.1475 ended slightly above the 50day SMA of $0.1441. We've now closed above it two of the last four days and below two of those days.
Short percentage behaved normally as buy percentage improved 155.40% to 65.5% from 25.2% and the daily short sales improved 175.01% from 19.85% to 54.58%. The correlation in magnitude, an unusual occurrence, is still pretty good. This is the second day in a row and will bear watching to see of it's a trend.
My original inflection point calculations again have five improved and swapped to only the 200day only weaker, vs. the 50day period yesterday. The change over fivedays moved to five periods improved and one weaker from yesterdays all periods improved. Rate of change over those days, which was showing improvement in all periods, now shows four improved and two weakened.
The newer version's oneday changes have all improved for the fourth day. Change over five days are all periods improved for the third consecutive day. The average change over five days switched from all periods showing improvement for the second day to three improved and three weakened.
The newer version's chart pattern continues to improve. Likely upward movement in price is more strongly suggested now, but we've not gotten the pattern yet that says it's very likely. Patience, patience.
ARCA was in premarket again on both the buy and sell side with a $0.13 x 7K bid (had been seeing $0.1305) and the usual 4K $0.249 offer again. Unusually, the bid did not disappear at the open to not be seen again. Instead they sat there all day.
Their first move on the sell side was to exit the market at 11:02. They returned at $0.145 x 7K, substantially undercutting the best offer of $0.148 from WABR. They were more aggressive and active, moving in offers of $0.1445, $0.144$0.1439 and $0.1434. Oddly, these were not responses to movement by other players, that I could see. They left the market at 14:40, just before our highvolume lateday push higher began.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:4009:40: 005000 shrs, 00.53% of vol, VWAP $0.1460, 100.0% buys
11:0011:28: 080889 shrs, 08.58% of vol, VWAP $0.1459, 037.4% buys
11:4011:45: 028500 shrs, 03.02% of vol, VWAP $0.1465, 098.2% buys
11:4611:47: 047700 shrs, 05.06% of vol, VWAP $0.1442, 062.3% buys
12:2912:44: 043700 shrs, 04.64% of vol, VWAP $0.1412, 003.9% buys
14:3614:49: 100190 shrs, 10.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1470, 080.1% buys
15:0115:14: 402980 shrs, 42.76% of vol, VWAP $0.1487, 076.3% buys
15:1615:26: 053570 shrs, 05.68% of vol, VWAP $0.1495, 100.0% buys
15:3115:46: 092530 shrs, 09.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1500, 049.8% buys
15:4915:55: 077200 shrs, 08.19% of vol, VWAP $0.1443, 019.7% buys
15:5615:56: 010200 shrs, 01.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1509, 100.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1400$0.1400: 000500 shrs, 00.05% of vol, VWAP $0.1400, 000.0% buys
$0.1410$0.1430: 100940 shrs, 10.71% of vol, VWAP $0.1419, 000.0% buys
$0.1434$0.1450: 133360 shrs, 14.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1449, 056.1% buys
$0.1451$0.1461: 143400 shrs, 15.22% of vol, VWAP $0.1457, 012.6% buys
$0.1479$0.1490: 270229 shrs, 28.67% of vol, VWAP $0.1488, 100.0% buys
$0.1498$0.1509: 237730 shrs, 25.22% of vol, VWAP $0.1500, 079.2% buys
$0.1510$0.1510: 056300 shrs, 05.97% of vol, VWAP $0.1510, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
04/03 %0.1902 +08.79% 50.5%
04/04 $0.1882 01.07% 54.1%
04/07 $0.1834 02.52% 38.2%
04/08 $0.1747 04.78% 24.0%
04/09 $0.1791 +02.54% 35.5%
04/10 $0.1782 00.54% 32.9%
04/11 $0.1689 05.18% 17.0%
04/14 $0.1641 02.87% 43.3%
04/15 $0.1443 12.06% 32.2%
04/16 $0.1375 04.70% 50.9%
04/17 $0.1344 02.30% 53.2%
04/21 $0.1435 +04.29% 25.2%
04/22 $0.1475 +02.74% 64.5%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
04/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1311, x 80%: $0.1049
04/22: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1338, x 80%: $0.1071
Vol in K, for above days: 436.92 942.46
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
04/21/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 66, MinTrSz: 270, MaxTrSz: 40001, Vol: 436920, AvTrSz: 6620
Min. Pr: 0.1400, Max Pr: 0.1500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1435
# Buys, Shares: 21 110290, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1464
# Sells, Shares: 45 326630, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1426
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.96 (25.24% "buys"), DlyShts 86720 (19.85%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 26.55%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.1049 vs. $0.1029, $0.1012, $0.0996, $0.0979, $0.0954, $0.0929, $0.0904, $0.0884 and $0.0865 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1148 vs. $0.1075, $0.1100, $0.1154, $0.1313, $0.1351, $0.1425, $0.1485, $0.1397 and $0.1468 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 7.61%, 1.35%, 4.29%, 52.38% and 76.61% respectively. Price spread today was 7.14% vs. 13.76%, 19.23%, 21.48%, 7.97%, 14.31%, 8.57% 5.71%, 9.40% and 7.78% on prior days.
The high of the day was one trade, at the open, of 1.5K shares for $0.1500. The next high was $0.1490 on 25K in two trades at 12:05. These latter were within range of other trades and had some volume, so I would feel comfortable using them as the high if I were to discount the $0.15, which I'm about to do because it was the only one, at the open, and very small in size and dollars. The low of $0.14 had plenty of trades and volume, as seen in the trading breakdown by price.
Using $0.1490 as the high, the movement of the high becomes 0.68%, about half the reported movement. The spread drops from 7.14% to 6.43%.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 6 of the 66 trades, 9.09%. These 121,001 shares were 27.69% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1444. 2 of these trades, 33.33%, were buys of 35,000 shares, 28.93% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1486. 4 of the larger trades, 66.67%, were sells of 86,001 shares, 71.07% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1427.
The other 60 trades, 90.91% of the day's trades, traded 315,919 shares, 72.31% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1428. 19 trades, 31.67%, were buys and accounted for 75,290 shares, 23.83% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1455. 41 trades, 68.33%, were sells and accounted for 240,629 shares, 76.17% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1419.
We had a "double dip" weakening today, seen in the trading breakdown by time. Price weakened in the morning (buy:sell was a nasty 1:3.xx and even worse), improved into the lunch hour (buy:sell improved to 1:1.6x?), and then weakened again from then into the close.
Three days ago I suggested we still had some more movement down in our nearterm future. That's played out, although I really think it's down within a range so far  not a big drop. With today's low volume, it could be an indication that any lower movement is nearing an end. But thinking that would be ignoring the possible effects of a long holiday weekend which often produces lower volume as people dribble back into work. Regardless, the low volume makes any assessments less reliable than normal, and as we know they're not all that reliable to begin with.
Nothing yet suggests that we won't go lower. Some traditional and nontraditional things continue to lean towards lower, but not as strongly or consistently as I would like in order to have conviction in that assessment.
Coming off breaking the string of four consecutive lower lows with yesterday's 1/100th penny improvement, we continued that today with a low of $0.14 today. That's two consecutive higher lows. Meaningless for now, but strings have to start somewhere. We finally broke our strings of five consecutive lower highs and six straight lower VWAPs.
Unfortunately, not only was the close lower, but it was just off the low of $0.14 at $0.1402. Since the close is deemed important I thought it deserved mention. It was down 3.31% from yesterday's $0.1450. Volume was lower  substantially. That might just be folks haven't all come back from the holiday weekend though?
This particular combination of open and close produced a "gravestone doji", supposedly a reversal indicator. With yesterday being an up day, this would suggest a down move coming. But Bulkowski points out that it only produces a reversal only 51% of the time, so it really is random. Also, it can result in a reversal to the upside. Since we've been in a down trend and reliability is near random, we're as likely to see a bounce up as a move down if we consider this in isolation.
The high today, a single 1.5K trade at the open, exactly touched what I suspected would be resistance and was rejected. If we discount that one trade, we didn't even touch resistance yet. But one day on the first test with low volume doesn't really give us much to judge as to whether this really is acting as resistance. So we'll have to wait and see what develops.
Full stochastic, which continues in oversold since 4/11, made a second tick up and moved slightly above it's average line. RSI weakened from yesterday's ~43 to ~40.8. These two conflict  stochastic suggest reduced weakening while RSI suggests increasing weakening.
The Bollinger's lower limit is exiting the parabolic mode and just rapidly descending now. That should extend the time before it's in the area of some recent alltime lows, which I was concerned about if price trend didn't change. This may be one of our more bullish suggestions as price action is pushing my experimental (13 period) lower limit. With the upper and lower reading ~0.195 and ~0.136 respectively, a move to the midpoint, ~0.165, would be a common occurrence. But considering the low volume, gravestone doji, most other oscillators slightly weakening, what *may* be a fairly stiff resistance at $0.15, ... I'm not laying any bets on that move yet.
Momentum finally entered oversold, after being saved from that fate by yesterday's action when it moved up to 81.5. Today it is ~0.78, barely oversold.
ADX and related has gone flat with the ADX itself weakening.
ARCA was in premarket again on both the buy and sell side with a $0.1305 x 7K bid and a 4K $0.249 offer again. As is common, the bid disappeared at the open and was not seen again.
Their first move on the sell side was at 12:06, undercutting the best offer of $0.149 (150K) from ATDF with a $0.147 2.5K (I think it was really 5K but it looks like 2.5K was taken before I got a snapshot) share offer. At 12:15 they disappeared from the market and did not return until 15:14. Then they undercut the $14.6 x 5K WABR offer with a $0.142 x7K offer, a larger spread than usual but not unseen from them before. By 15:31 they were gone for the day.
The majority of the action on the offers today was from NITE, ATDF and WABR, the most aggressive of the trio. With these three doing most of the work and ARCA again doing the hitandrun and wait routine, the downward pressure on the offers was generally much less consistent and less severe. We actually saw offers get as high as $0.149 a few times during the day. WABR would generally take advantage to get some shares offered below those prices though, so it didn't generally last too long.
In spite of that, we weren't as fortunate as yesterday when we didn't see the lateday weakness. Today we did see it again and combined with earlyday weakness as well.
Our VWAP of $0.1435 is slightly above the 50day SMA of $0.1433. We've closed below it two of the last three days and barely above it Thursday, 4/17.
Short percentage behaved normally but for having an unusual trait today  buy percentage dropped roughly half and daily short dropped about the same amount. This is unusual  correlation is usually only directional, not in magnitude. I don't know if it means anything  need to see a lot more days to decide if it looks like anything changed.
My original inflection point calculations broke the string of oneday change periods marginally improved for two days in a row, but it wasn't a bad break. Today we have five improved and only the 50day period weaker, but it is a noticeable degree of weakening. The change over fivedays moved to all periods improved from yesterday's three improved and three weaker. We also have positive three positive numbers again, as we did Thursday, two days past. Rate of change over those days is showing improvement in all periods.
The newer version's oneday changes match the original version's. And this is all improved for the third day. But all are still. Change over five days are all periods improved for the second consecutive day. The average change over five days also have all periods showing improvement for the second day.
The newer version's chart pattern continues to improve, and much more strongly now. Likely upward movement in price is more strongly suggested now.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:55: 055900 shrs, 12.79% of vol, VWAP $0.1458, 032.4% buys
09:5610:29: 072880 shrs, 16.68% of vol, VWAP $0.1430, 000.0% buys
10:3210:59: 060499 shrs, 13.85% of vol, VWAP $0.1403, 014.0% buys
11:0411:20: 022516 shrs, 05.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1409, 045.3% buys
11:2812:15: 063500 shrs, 14.53% of vol, VWAP $0.1476, 092.1% buys
13:5014:42: 082100 shrs, 18.79% of vol, VWAP $0.1449, 009.7% buys
14:4315:14: 045500 shrs, 10.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1408, 000.0% buys
15:3115:46: 034025 shrs, 07.79% of vol, VWAP $0.1413, 020.6% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1400$0.1400: 076600 shrs, 17.53% of vol, VWAP $0.1400, 000.0% buys
$0.1401$0.1420: 092540 shrs, 21.18% of vol, VWAP $0.1413 027.8% buys
$0.1430$0.1440: 112380 shrs, 25.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1435, 000.0% buys
$0.1450$0.1461: 094100 shrs, 21.54% of vol, VWAP $0.1455, 024.8% buys
$0.1470$0.1489: 034800 shrs, 07.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1480, 100.0% buys
$0.1490$0.1500: 026500 shrs, 06.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1491, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
04/02 $0.1748 +05.04% 34.3%
04/03 %0.1902 +08.79% 50.5%
04/04 $0.1882 01.07% 54.1%
04/07 $0.1834 02.52% 38.2%
04/08 $0.1747 04.78% 24.0%
04/09 $0.1791 +02.54% 35.5%
04/10 $0.1782 00.54% 32.9%
04/11 $0.1689 05.18% 17.0%
04/14 $0.1641 02.87% 43.3%
04/15 $0.1443 12.06% 32.2%
04/16 $0.1375 04.70% 50.9%
04/17 $0.1344 02.30% 53.2%
04/21 $0.1435 +04.29% 25.2%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
04/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1311, x 80%: $0.1049
Vol in K, for above days: 436.92
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
04/17/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 102, MinTrSz: 1000, MaxTrSz: 129400, Vol: 917461, AvTrSz: 8995
Min. Pr: 0.1301, Max Pr: 0.1480, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1344
# Buys, Shares: 60 488216, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1378
# Sells, Shares: 40 353945, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1367
# Unkn, Shares: 2 52300, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1448
Buy:Sell 1.38:1 (53.21% "buys"), DlyShts 370716 (40.41%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 104.74%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.1029 vs. $0.1012, $0.0996, $0.0979, $0.0954, $0.0929, $0.0904, $0.0884, $0.0865 and $0.0848 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1075 vs. $0.1100, $0.1154, $0.1313, $0.1351, $0.1425, $0.1485, $0.1397, $0.1468 and $0.1505 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Interesting that the " average of the lowest 20 VWAPs ..." and " 80% of today's VWAP is ..." are going in opposite directions. May not matter if PIPErs really are about paid off.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.08%, 4.52%, 2.30%, 33.46% and 39.10% respectively. Price spread today was 13.76% vs. 19.23%, 21.48%, 7.97%, 14.31%, 8.57% 5.71%, 9.40%, 7.78% and 11.30% on prior days.
The high of the day was one trade, midday, of 1K shares for $0.1480. The next high was also 1K at $0.1470, also midday. Nothing suspicious about them, but they do affect the spread and movement of the day's high. The next lower high price was $0.1450 and had several trades with plenty of volume at various times during the day. There was a single trade at the open that set the day's low  1K @ $0.1301. The next lowest was $0.1306 for 10K. Again, I suspect nothing foul about these, but they do affect the low movement and the spread. Using the $0.1306 for the low and $0.1450 the movement of the low and high becomes 0.46% and 6.45% instead of the 0.08% and 4.52% we saw and the spread narrows to 11.03% instead of the 13.76% we saw.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on only 10 of the 102 trades, 9.80%. These 373,330 shares were 40.69% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1381. 5 of these trades, 50.00%, were buys of 196,330 shares, 52.59% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1377. 4 of the larger trades, 40.00%, were sells of 127,000 shares, 34.02% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1359. 1 of the larger trades, 10.00%, were unknowns of 50,000 shares, 13.39% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1450.
The other 92 trades, 90.20% of the day's trades, traded 544,131 shares, 59.31% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1373. 55 trades, 59.78%, were buys and accounted for 291,886 shares, 53.64% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1379. 36 trades, 39.13%, were sells and accounted for 249,945 shares, 45.93% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1366. 1 trade, 1.09%, was "unknown" and accounted for 2,300 shares, 0.42% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1400.
AS John suggested, the 200day SMA appears to be providing support, now for the second consecutive day. Unfortunately, that average is going to continue to drop for eight more days, albeit very slowly, if we remain in the current price range. The 50day will continue to rise for another month if we stay in this price range. Wednesday we closed below the 50day SMA, $0.1422, and also had a VWAP of $0.1375 below it, after having traded above it Tuesday when the 50day SMA was $0.142, when the close was $0.145 and the VWAP was $0.1442. More thoughts on the traditional TA front are below.
Contrary to yesterday, when we had a constant price weakening throughout the day, we had strengthening throughout the day, seen in the trading breakdown by time. I suspect this was due to ARCA playing a different game today, described below. In a nutshell, the other aggressive players on the sell side were afforded some relief by ARCA's behavior and they were able to hold the offers higher longer than when ARCA is doing it's normal stuff.
ARCA was in premarket again on only the sell side with a 4K $0.249 offer again. Their first move on the sell side that I saw was at 10:48, undercutting the best offer of $0.1349 from ATDF with a $0.133 14K share offer, a little larger than usual (5k9K). WABR joined them at 11:00 with a 5K $0.13 offer. ARCA retreated to the $0.249 at 11:11. That allowed offers to rise to $0.136 and ARCA immediately came back with a $0.135 10K offer at 11:12. I guess the shares were taken because the again retreated to $0.249 in that same minute.
The didn't move on the sell again until 11:32. During the interval, the offers were walked back up by NITE, WABR and ATDF to as high as $0.148. There was one trade at this price for the whole day. Anyway, when ARCA returned they offered 5K at $0.142, substantially below WABR's $0.147 at the time.
By the time they again retreated, 11:48, best offer was down to $0.14 from WABR. Here's where I realized ARCA's behavior was changing. ARCA was dormant for almost 13/4 hours, until 13:32. Offers moved as high as $0.145 during the interval. ARCA moved to the front again with a 5K $0.14 offer.
The difference today, I realized, was that rather than battling the other sellers titfortat and driving offers almost inexorably lower, or popping in and out frequently having the same effect, ARCA was doing a hitandrun and wait operation. They were more patient today, allowing offers to rise higher before they hit again. Then they would retreat and wait again.
I think this is why we didn't see the lateday weakness. The buyers were uncertain about the coming price action and willing to "pay up" JIC. And the sellers realized they could be actually raising offers with some success. This was aided by the fact that NITE and ATDF were somewhat less aggressive than usual.
I noted yesterday we did see the usual behavior of improved buy percentage from 32.2% to 50.9% as price weakened. I was still concerned that the PIPErs may have shares obtained in the $0.08xx or so range and may have more to dump and we had left the time of month when we normally see at least a reduction in downward movement and often some appreciation and would now see some weakness develop. I didn't expect the uptick in buying to be able to prevent that.
So far, nothing changes my concern. Our buy percentage showed a small improvement to 53.2% while VWAP weakened for the sixth consecutive day to $0.1344. If there's still PIPEr shares being dispensed, they were likely at a cost of $0.08xx and substantial profit is still available on them for a long way down yet.
What I suggested two days ago still applies I think  regardless of technical items, we've got some more movement down in our nearterm future. The traditional TA stuff doesn't yet contradict this.
Our low broke the string of four consecutive lower lows with a 1/100th penny improvement today. We have the fifth consecutive day of lower highs, six straight lower for VWAPs. Our close was higher. Volume was lower on a lower VWAP, offering hope that the trend lower may approaching it's end.
Short percentage behaved as I would expect yesterday: as buy percentage moved from ~32% to ~51% the daily short sales percentage moved from ~27% to ~44%. Today the change in buy percentage is too small to expect any kind of meaningful correlation in daily short percentage, which checked in at 40.41% vs. yesterday's 44.15%.
An interesting, but maybe useless, note is that when the day's high of $0.148 was hit on an aggregate 472K shares, the buy percentage at that point was 76.78%, 361,945 shares. From that point forward, on aggregate volume of ~445K shares, the buys were only ~126.3K, 28.35%. This does give a good insight into what happens as price rises in our current environment. We have a different kind of "lateday weakness".
The high today, a single 1K trade at that price, approached, but did not touch, what was formerly a support at $0.15. If we discount that one trade 1K at $0.148 (and maybe the 1 1k trade at $0.147 too?) we didn't really come that darn close to it. Anyway, it held only at the origin and two additional touches and failed on the forth visitation. So it wasn't all that strong. I don't know how strong a resistance it might be, but I would expect at least an initial hold in light of the traditional and nontraditional things I see.
Full stochastic, continues in oversold since 4/11 but now has made a tick up. RSI, having made a big move down below neutral with ~48.22 and 39.88 readings, now worsened to ~34.3 today, barely above oversold. Yesterday I said if trading behavior continues as it has been, RSI should enter oversold. With the lack of lateday weakness and better close today, RSI managed to show a small improvement to ~43, still below neutral though.
The Bollingers' lower limit continues its parabolic move downward. It won't take long before it's in the area of some recent alltime lows unless price trend changes.
Momentum had hit ~0.77 and I thought it likely to enter oversold tomorrow if trading behavior didn't change. Another one saved by today's action  moved up to 81.5, still below neutral but not descending more for now.
My original inflection point calculations have all oneday change periods marginally improved for the second day in a row. With large negative numbers though they do not suggest strengthening, just reducing weakness. Unfortunately the change over fivedays switched to three improved and three weaker, with two having positive numbers, from yesterday's all periods improved and three with positive numbers. Rate of change over those days is also split three and tree vs. yesterday's four showing improvement and two weakening.
The newer version's oneday changes match the original version's  all improved for the second day. But all are negative and some quite large. Change over five days are all periods improved, up from five improved and one weaker. The average change over five days also went from five and one to all periods showing improvement.
The newer version's chart pattern, although trying to improve, is still far away from suggesting any likely upward movement in price.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:30: 001000 shrs, 00.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1301, 000.0% buys
09:5210:05: 036000 shrs, 03.92% of vol, VWAP $0.1343, 066.7% buys
10:0810:34: 077515 shrs, 08.45% of vol, VWAP $0.1347, 072.9% buys
10:3611:04: 120930 shrs, 13.18% of vol, VWAP $0.1334, 062.0% buys
11:1111:34: 262855 shrs, 28.65% of vol, VWAP $0.1369, 078.6% buys
11:3612:18: 085700 shrs, 09.34% of vol, VWAP $0.1383, 005.8% buys
13:0413:33: 100371 shrs, 10.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1431, 038.2% buys
13:4013:58: 051590 shrs, 05.62% of vol, VWAP $0.1385, 023.3% buys
14:0114:05: 032800 shrs, 03.58% of vol, VWAP $0.1425, 051.2% buys
15:1115:17: 027100 shrs, 02.95% of vol, VWAP $0.1402, 044.6% buys
15:2015:21: 044600 shrs, 04.86% of vol, VWAP $0.1369, 000.0% buys
15:2915:48: 027000 shrs, 02.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1389, 044.4% buys
15:5115:58: 050000 shrs, 05.45% of vol, VWAP $0.1411, 060.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1301$0.1349: 184500 shrs, 20.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1331, 042.5% buys
$0.1350$0.1390: 513690 shrs, 55.99% of vol, VWAP $0.1371, 056.7% buys
$0.1400$0.1449: 147271 shrs, 16.05% of vol, VWAP $0.1416, 065.4% buys
$0.1450$0.1480: 072000 shrs, 07.85% of vol, VWAP $0.1451, 030.6% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
04/01 $0.1664 00.48% 54.8%
04/02 $0.1748 +05.04% 34.3%
04/03 %0.1902 +08.79% 50.5%
04/04 $0.1882 01.07% 54.1%
04/07 $0.1834 02.52% 38.2%
04/08 $0.1747 04.78% 24.0%
04/09 $0.1791 +02.54% 35.5%
04/10 $0.1782 00.54% 32.9%
04/11 $0.1689 05.18% 17.0%
04/14 $0.1641 02.87% 43.3%
04/15 $0.1443 12.06% 32.2%
04/16 $0.1375 04.70% 50.9%
04/17 $0.1344 02.30% 53.2%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
04/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1223, x 80%: $0.0979
04/15: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1245, x 80%: $0.0996
04/16: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1265, x 80%: $0.1012
04/17: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1286, x 80%: $0.1029
Vol in K, for above days: 449.48 1,357.36 1,378.89 917.46
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
04/16/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 130, MinTrSz: 175, MaxTrSz: 242000, Vol: 1378893, AvTrSz: 10607
Min. Pr: 0.1300, Max Pr: 0.1550, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1375
# Buys, Shares: 66 701417, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1394
# Sells, Shares: 61 663000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1355
# Unkn, Shares: 3 14476, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1382
Buy:Sell 1.06:1 (50.87% "buys"), DlyShts 608718 (44.15%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 91.81%
A cursory look at my traditional TA charts suggests some support may appear in the $0.122$0.125 range. However, I feel compelled to warn that our longterm behavior suggests these will not hold. As we get nearer to those points we may be able to better assess the chances.
As with yesterday, we had a constant price weakening throughout the day, seen in the trading breakdown by time. This appears to be a result of the continued very aggressive behavior on the sell side by those MMs I've mentioned so many times.
ARCA was in premarket again on both sides with a 5K $0.131 bid and a 4K $0.249 offer. They left the buy side at the open. Their first move on the sell side came at 11:49, later than usual, undercutting the best offer of $0.146 from NITE & WABR with a $0.14 5K share offer. Their behavior today was popping in and out with each return undercutting whatever offer was best at the time. They also made several moves while in the market to gain the top position on the offers. Competition was still from the start, with NITE, WABT and ATDF early on, and from NITE and WABT after NITE entered that 486.5K offer at 13:56 (see next paragraph). That offer remained static until it was "eaten" and other NITE offers participated in moving the offers lower.
Adding to the distress today was a NITE offer for 486.5K shares at $0.138 that appeared at 13:56:32. The highest trade price subsequent to the entry of that offer was $0.1382 in that same second. From that point forward, $0.138 was it.
I noted yesterday we did not see our buy percentage improve, relative to the prior day, as price weakened. Today we did see the usual behavior as buy percentage improved from 32.2% to 50.9%. I still have concern that the PIPErs may have shares obtained in the $0.08xx or so range and may have more to dump. We've left the time of month when we normally see at least a reduction in downward movement and often some appreciation and would now see some weakness develop. I don't expect the uptick in buying to be able to prevent that.
What I suggested yesterday, still applies I think  regardless of technical items, we've got some more movement down in our nearterm future.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.1012 vs. $0.0996, $0.0979, $0.0954, $0.0929, $0.0904, $0.0884, $0.0865, $0.0848 and $0.0831 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1100 vs. $0.1154, $0.1313, $0.1351, $0.1425, $0.1485, $0.1397, $0.1468, $0.1505 and $0.1522 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 3.70%, 5.49%, 4.70%, 1.59%, 66.59% respectively. Price spread today was 19.23% vs. 21.48%, 7.97%, 14.31%, 8.57% 5.71%, 9.40%, 7.78%, 11.30% and 14.22% on prior days.
The high of the day was one trade at the open of 25K shares for $0.1550. With the next highest price of $0.1460 (two trades at different times for ~22.5K), it seems worthwhile to look at the effect of discounting it. Using $0.1460 the high movement would 10.98% and the spread would be 12.31%.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 19 of the 130 trades, 14.62%. These 755,750 shares were 54.81% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1372. 6 of these trades, 31.58%, were buys of 395,750 shares, 52.37% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1393. 13 of the larger trades, 68.42%, were sells of 360,000 shares, 47.63% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1349.
The other 111 trades, 85.38% of the day's trades, traded 623,143 shares, 45.19% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1379. 60 trades, 54.05%, were buys and accounted for 305,667 shares, 49.05% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1395. 48 trades, 43.24%, were sells and accounted for 303,000 shares, 48.62% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1362. 3 trades, 2.70%, were "unknown" and accounted for 14,476 shares, 2.32% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1382.
We have the fourth consecutive day of lower highs, lows, VWAPs and closes and volume rose again.
Short percentage behaved as I would expect: as buy percentage moved from ~32% to ~51% the daily short sales percentage moved from ~27% to ~44%.
Full stochastic, continues in oversold since 4/11 with an initial 17.79 reading. Subsequently it's hit ~11.91, 12.09 and ~8,5 today. RSI, having made a big move down below neutral with ~48.22 and 39.88 readings, now worsened to ~34.3 today, barely above oversold. If trading behavior continues tomorrow as it has been, RSI should enter oversold.
The Bollingers' lower limit continues to roll over and is now going parabolic downward. It won't take long before it's in the area of some recent alltime lows.
Momentum had improved and then weakened. Today it's at ~0.77 and is likely to enter oversold tomorrow is trading behavior doesn't change.
My original inflection point calculations have all oneday change periods marginally improved. Keep in mind these are large negative numbers and do not suggest strengthening, just reducing weakness. The change over fivedays also has all periods improved and three have some positive numbers. Rate of change over those days has four showing improvement and two weakening.
The newer version's oneday changes match the original version's. Change over five days went from one improved and 5 weaker to five improved and one weaker. Unlike yesterday, all are small moves. The average change over five days is also five and one.
The newer version's chart pattern, although trying to improve, is still far away from suggesting any likely upward movement in price.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:30: 025000 shrs, 01.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1550, 100.0% buys
09:3410:48: 031500 shrs, 02.28% of vol, VWAP $0.1423, 084.1% buys
10:4911:23: 028975 shrs, 02.10% of vol, VWAP $0.1434, 084.5% buys
11:2711:59: 077559 shrs, 05.62% of vol, VWAP $0.1418, 044.2% buys
12:0012:29: 081215 shrs, 05.89% of vol, VWAP $0.1399, 024.6% buys
12:3112:51: 038300 shrs, 02.78% of vol, VWAP $0.1450, 080.5% buys
13:0213:20: 027200 shrs, 01.97% of vol, VWAP $0.1415, 015.4% buys
13:2413:45: 036500 shrs, 02.65% of vol, VWAP $0.1439, 100.0% buys
13:4714:11: 319824 shrs, 23.19% of vol, VWAP $0.1381, 089.1% buys
14:2314:25: 174000 shrs, 12.62% of vol, VWAP $0.1372, 047.1% buys
14:2614:55: 409820 shrs, 29.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1344, 017.0% buys
14:5915:29: 088000 shrs, 06.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1312, 044.3% buys
15:3915:59: 041000 shrs, 02.97% of vol, VWAP $0.1324, 058.5% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1300$0.1349: 273000 shrs, 19.80% of vol, VWAP $0.1317, 023.1% buys
$0.1350$0.1390: 794035 shrs, 57.58% of vol, VWAP $0.1371, 054.8% buys
$0.1400$0.1449: 231384 shrs, 16.78% of vol, VWAP $0.1419, 053.0% buys
$0.1450$0.1460: 055474 shrs, 04.02% of vol, VWAP $0.1456, 100.0% buys
$0.1550$0.1550: 025000 shrs, 01.81% of vol, VWAP $0.1550, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
03/31 $0.1673 +00.05% 38.7%
04/01 $0.1664 00.48% 54.8%
04/02 $0.1748 +05.04% 34.3%
04/03 %0.1902 +08.79% 50.5%
04/04 $0.1882 01.07% 54.1%
04/07 $0.1834 02.52% 38.2%
04/08 $0.1747 04.78% 24.0%
04/09 $0.1791 +02.54% 35.5%
04/10 $0.1782 00.54% 32.9%
04/11 $0.1689 05.18% 17.0%
04/14 $0.1641 02.87% 43.3%
04/15 $0.1443 12.06% 32.2%
04/16 $0.1375 04.70% 50.9%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
04/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1223, x 80%: $0.0979
04/15: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1245, x 80%: $0.0996
04/16: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1265, x 80%: $0.1012
Vol in K, for above days: 449.48 1,357.36 1,378.89
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
04/15/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 197, MinTrSz: 80, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol: 1357355, AvTrSz: 6890
Min. Pr: 0.1350, Max Pr: 0.1640, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1443
# Buys, Shares: 81 436402, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1449
# Sells, Shares: 113 902748, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1439
# Unkn, Shares: 3 18205, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1466
Buy:Sell 1:2.07 (32.15% "buys"), DlyShts 365323 (26.91%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 40.48%
I had said yesterday "$0.15 still seems the best nearby potential support point. We'll have to keep our eyes peeled as we approach though  there's a lot of reasons to suspect that it might have difficulty holding there, some of which are based on traditional TA stuff". I also posted a reply to MrI that mentioned the aggressiveness seen made me say I wouldn't want to place any bets on it.
Today we blew right through $0.15 with, again, "allday weakness".
ARCA was in premarket again on both sides with a 5K $0.131 bid and a 4K $0.249 offer. They had left the buy side by 09:35. Their first move on the sell side came at 9:59, earlier than usual. All I'll say about the rest of the day is that ARCA and the usual marketmakers were very aggressive, beginning right from the open and continuing throughout the day. The usual ARCA, WABR, ATDF, CSTI and NITE behavior was evident and one usually not seen player, VFIN, participated as well late in the day.
As with yesterday, this again resulted in a constant price weakening throughout the day, seen in the trading breakdown by time.
Uncommonly, we did not see our buy percentage improve, relative to yesterday, as price weakened. I'm suspecting that was due to heavy selling by PIPErs, based on the very aggressive behavior I mention above, along with some retail traders or investors taking profits while they still had some or cutting their losses in what was seen as a highrisk intraday environment. If most was the PIPErs, keep in mind they recently got shares in the $0.08xx or so range and may have more to dump. Also, we've left the time of month when we normally see at least a reduction in downward movement and often some appreciation, and see some weakness develop.
All that makes me think, regardless of technical items, we've got some more movement down in our nearterm future.
While I'm thinking of it, I suggest you take a look at the chart of average buy percentages. Yesterday the two short periods were not looking positive at all and today the 50day has joined the rollover party
I again didn't see NITE's 200K offer at $0.21 in premarket, nor during the day.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0996 vs. $0.0979, $0.0954, $0.0929, $0.0904, $0.0884, $0.0865, $0.0848, $0.0831 and $0.0819 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1154 vs. $0.1313, $0.1351, $0.1425, $0.1485, $0.1397, $0.1468, $0.1505, $0.1522 and $0.1399 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 15.25%, 4.65%, 12.06%, 201.98% and 216.37% respectively. Price spread today was 21.48% vs. 7.97%, 14.31%, 8.57% 5.71%, 9.40%, 7.78%, 11.30%, 14.22% and 5.88% on prior days.
The high of the day was one trade at the open of 1K shares for $0.1640. The low was one 5K trade for $0.1350. Neither looked out of place for today's action and neither was widely divorced from other trades around them. Discounting them would generally just bump into another small set of trades (e.g. the next higher was 400 shares at $0.1630, then one $0.1618 for 12K , ...).
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 22 of the 197 trades, 11.17%. These 522,600 shares were 38.50% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1443. 4 of these trades, 18.18%, were buys of 72,500 shares, 13.87% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1467. 17 of the larger trades, 77.27%, were sells of 434,100 shares, 83.07% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1438.
The other 175 trades, 88.83% of the day's trades, traded 834,755 shares, 61.50% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1443. 77 trades, 44.00%, were buys and accounted for 363,902 shares, 43.59% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1446. 96 trades, 54.86%, were sells and accounted for 468,648 shares, 56.14% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1441.
We have the third consecutive day of lower highs, lows, VWAPs and closes and we are back to seeing this on rising volume despite my hope yesterday of "Let's hope volume remains low and we don't head into a nose dive on rising volume". Today was certainly a nose dive on rising volume. From a TA perspective, "this ain't good".
Short percentage ticked up a minuscule amount as buy percentage ticked down a small amount. With both moves being so small I don't see any incongruity with the general correlation, especially when we have high volume and big price movement occurring, as we did today.
Full stochastic, which entered oversold 4/11 with a 17.79 reading, dropped further to ~11.91, and now tried to recover a bit with a 12.09 today. Nothing to write home about. RSI made a big move even further below neutral today from yesterday's ~48.22 reading to 39.88 today.
The Bollingers' lower limit, which had started to roll over, continues that of course. Today's reading is $0.1514 vs. yesterday's $0.1564. Worse, or close is below it, meaning a big drop will come if we don't strongly rebound quickly.
Momentum, which had recovered to ~1.01, a slight improvement to above neutral, plunged to 89.4, well below neutral. As I said yesterday, "But be aware this was likely only due to the low volume" and that looks to have been correct. ADX related, which had stopped weakening and went flat, also likely an effect of volume, resumed weakening today.
We again had "all day weakness" in price action.
My original inflection point calculations have oneday changes today with a two improved and four weakened vs. yesterday's marginal improvement in four periods and marginal weakness in two. The change over five days is split three and three. However, the rate of change over five days, which was split three and three, now has four improved and two weakened.
The newer version's oneday changes went from the three shortest periods all marginally improved and the three longer periods weakened, also marginally, to all periods weaker, the four longer periods substantially so. Change over five days went from improvement in all periods to one improved and 5 weaker, again substantially in several periods. The average change over five days for all periods are marginally improved though.
The newer version's chart pattern, which yesterday had the five, ten and 25day lines showing an acceleration of downward bias beginning, has started to reverse that. At these readings though it is more a reflection of uncertainty than any indication of an upward bias. The numbers and lines are still well off of starting any pattern suggesting a strong move up might be in the cards for now.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3409:59: 058350 shrs, 04.30% of vol, VWAP $0.1606, 077.2% buys
10:0010:29: 112635 shrs, 08.30% of vol, VWAP $0.1531, 015.7% buys
10:3310:59: 198570 shrs, 14.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1495, 010.0% buys
11:0111:31: 052740 shrs, 03.89% of vol, VWAP $0.1453, 055.1% buys
11:4311:50: 056194 shrs, 04.14% of vol, VWAP $0.1438, 014.6% buys
12:0512:25: 114664 shrs, 08.45% of vol, VWAP $0.1434, 016.1% buys
12:2612:54: 151681 shrs, 11.17% of vol, VWAP $0.1415, 038.4% buys
13:0013:31: 170000 shrs, 12.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1390, 017.6% buys
13:3313:56: 121000 shrs, 08.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1403, 085.4% buys
14:0714:22: 036800 shrs, 02.71% of vol, VWAP $0.1415, 048.9% buys
14:3714:53: 133369 shrs, 09.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1405, 020.3% buys
14:5915:13: 040503 shrs, 02.98% of vol, VWAP $0.1423, 094.6% buys
15:1415:30: 016350 shrs, 01.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1405, 048.9% buys
15:3115:58: 094499 shrs, 06.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1405, 015.9% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1350$0.1399: 104055 shrs, 07.67% of vol, VWAP $0.1371, 004.8% buys
$0.1400$0.1449: 791544 shrs, 58.32% of vol, VWAP $0.1412, 035.1% buys
$0.1450$0.1480: 127021 shrs, 09.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1462, 056.7% buys
$0.1500$0.1540: 228585 shrs, 16.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1507, 008.6% buys
$0.1550$0.1580: 060150 shrs, 04.43% of vol, VWAP $0.1556, 048.0% buys
$0.1600$0.1640: 046000 shrs, 03.39% of vol, VWAP $0.1613, 071.1% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
03/28 $0.1672 +06.09% 54.2%
03/31 $0.1673 +00.05% 38.7%
04/01 $0.1664 00.48% 54.8%
04/02 $0.1748 +05.04% 34.3%
04/03 %0.1902 +08.79% 50.5%
04/04 $0.1882 01.07% 54.1%
04/07 $0.1834 02.52% 38.2%
04/08 $0.1747 04.78% 24.0%
04/09 $0.1791 +02.54% 35.5%
04/10 $0.1782 00.54% 32.9%
04/11 $0.1689 05.18% 17.0%
04/14 $0.1641 02.87% 43.3%
04/15 $0.1443 12.06% 32.2%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
04/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1223, x 80%: $0.0979
04/15: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1245, x 80%: $0.0996
Vol in K, for above days: 449.48 1,357.36
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
04/14/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 64, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol: 449480, AvTrSz: 7023
Min. Pr: 0.1593, Max Pr: 0.1720, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1641
# Buys, Shares: 28 194680, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1662
# Sells, Shares: 36 254800, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1624
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.31 (43.31% "buys"), DlyShts 115500 (25.70%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 45.33%
ARCA was in premarket again on both sides with a 5K $0.131 bid and a 4K $0.249 offer. They exited the buy side at 10:23. Their first move came at 10:33, 10 minutes after they exited their bid. Similar behavior has been noted many times recently. Anyway, they jumped to the front of the sell side with a 7K $0.17 offer, undercutting the best $0.172 at the time. Those shares were immediately bought. They entered again at 11:07 with $0.17, undercutting $0.1709 at the time. But the market had moved away from them and these were not immediately taken. As with many prior days, there was heavy and somewhat aggressive competition from the usual WABR, NITE and ATDF marketmakers. CSTI also became more active and aggressive. Unlike prior days, ARCA did not pop in and out of the market all day long. They basically hung in there are slugged it out with the other aggressively selling folks.
This resulted in a constant price weakening throughout the day, seen in the trading breakdown by time.
As is common, we saw our buy percentage improve, relative to yesterday, as price weakened. Based on this, early in the day I suspected our daily short sales percentage would rebound from yesterday's 10.52%, which it did, and we got 25.7% today, moving closer to what I believe is normal range again.
While I'm thinking of it, I suggest you take a look at the chart of average buy percentages. The two short periods are not looking positive at all.
I didn't see NITE's 200K offer at $0.21 in premarket, nor during the day. That doesn't mean it wasn't there  it could have been "masked" by a better offer. However, I checked at 08:10 and there was no NITE offer and at 08:52 there was a 2.5K $0.21 offer. So if the offer was entered anytime after 8:10, it would be masked by the next time I looked.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0979 vs. $0.0954, $0.0929, $0.0904, $0.0884, $0.0865, $0.0848, $0.0831, $0.0819 and $0.0816 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1313 vs. $0.1351, $0.1425, $0.1485, $0.1397, $0.1468, $0.1505, $0.1522, $0.1399 and $0.1332 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.44%, 5.96%, 2.87%, 48.71% and 25.22% respectively. Price spread today was 7.97% vs. 14.31%, 8.57% 5.71%, 9.40%, 7.78%, 11.30%, 14.22%, 5.88% and 19.76% on prior days.
There was one trade at the low of the day, 10K at $0.1593. It doesn't strike me as warranting a look at the metrics without it because it looks just like a normal trade  reasonable size and it was only 7/100ths of a cent below the next lowest price of $0.16, which had plenty of trades and volume. So I think this $0.1593 was just a good trade by someone.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 7 of the 64 trades, 10.94%. These 132,000 shares were 29.37% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1650. 4 of these trades, 57.14%, were buys of 79,000 shares, 59.85% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1672. 3 of the larger trades, 42.86%, were sells of 53,000 shares, 40.15% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1618.
The other 57 trades, 89.06% of the day's trades, traded 317,480 shares, 70.63% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1637. 24 trades, 42.11%, were buys and accounted for 115,680 shares, 36.44% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1656. 33 trades, 57.89%, were sells and accounted for 201,800 shares, 63.56% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1626.
The gravestone doji suggestion, when combined with the traditional and unconventional stuff I have detailed, seems to have been accurately foretelling "coming attractions" alright.
We have the second consecutive day of lower highs, lows, VWAPs and closes. Yesterday was on rising volume while today's is on reduced volume. Let's hope volume remains low and we don't head into a nose dive on rising volume.
Short percentage , as is common, rose as buy percentage rose. It's still below what I think is normal, but if the price continues to weaken and the normal increase in buy percentage as that happens occurs, we should see daily short sales percentage direction roughly track buy percentage. There can be aberrations though.
I had mentioned the possibility of some support at $0.16, but said I didn't think it would hold up well because it looked weak to me and was just a bottom of a brief sideways trading channel. Yesterday's low was $0.16 on ~32K, two trades at 15:56. Check today's breakdown by price and you'll see twelve trades at that price for 73.9K, all but one a sell.
You'll also see ~47% of day's volume in the $0.16$0.1621 range but with only ~20% buys. This tells us two things of note. About 43.7K shares were taken from the offers around that range, not a sign of strength, and ~174K+ were sold into the bids in that range, also not a sign of strength. If you now check the breakdown by time you see that no strength was exhibited as the slide down towards the lows of the day was almost totally uninterrupted.
We closed at the second lowest price of the day, $0.16.
I'm thinking there's enough selling to exhaust support at $0.16, based on what I see ATM. Unless the sellers just pack up and go home, there's no substantial volume stacking up in the bids appearing yet on the buy side in any price range. As long as WABR, NITE, ARCA, ATDF, CSTI are being aggressive on the offers and there's no volume stacking up on the bids there's likely no change in direction.
$0.15 still seems the best nearby potential support point. We'll have to keep our eyes peeled as we approach though  there's a lot of reasons to suspect that it might have difficulty holding there, some of which are based on traditional TA stuff.
For the second consecutive day we had lower highs, lows, VWAPs and closes. Yesterday was on rising volume and today was on falling volume, a weak indicator that we might be nearing bottom. But it's just as likely that's just indicating a typical pause in the action as traders and investors try to assess the situation.
Full stochastic, which entered oversold 4/11 with a 17.79 reading, dropped further to ~11.91 today. RSI remained below neutral today with a ~48.22 reading.
The Bollingers' lower limit, which yesterday moved down from the prior day's slight rise, continues to roll over, reading 0.1564, down from Thursday's 0.158 and Friday's 0.1569.
Momentum recovered a to ~1.01, a slight improvement to above neutral. But be aware this was likely only due to the low volume. ADX related stopped weakening and went flat, also likely an effect of volume.
Lateday weakness today morphed into "all day weakness".
My original is showing uncertainty in the oneday changes with marginal improvement in four periods and marginal weakness in two. The change over five days is the same. However, the rate of change over five days is split three and three.
Thursday I said of the newer version's readings "This does not look at all positive" and Friday bore out that statement with our definite strong move well below the prior $0.18, around which we had been vacillating.
The newer version's oneday changes now have the three shortest periods all marginally improved and the three longer periods weakened, also marginally. Change over five days is more positive with improvement in all periods. But keep in mind these are all large negative numbers and do not suggest strengthening, just reduced rate of weakening. This is supported by the average change over five days for all periods also being improved. This is predominately an effect of smaller volume combined with buy percentage moving from 17% to 43.3%.
The newer version's chart pattern, which yesterday had the five, ten and 25day lines showing an acceleration of downward bias beginning, has started to reverse that. At these readings though it is more a reflection of uncertainty than any indication of an upward bias. The numbers and lines are still well off of starting any pattern suggesting a strong move up might be in the cards for now.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
10:1810:27: 050000 shrs, 11.12% of vol, VWAP $0.1720, 100.0% buys
10:3311:03: 053180 shrs, 11.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1688, 006.9% buys
11:0512:04: 065000 shrs, 14.46% of vol, VWAP $0.1648, 061.5% buys
12:0712:18: 031500 shrs, 07.01% of vol, VWAP $0.1612, 036.5% buys
13:1914:10: 071000 shrs, 15.80% of vol, VWAP $0.1640, 078.9% buys
14:1215:30: 096400 shrs, 21.45% of vol, VWAP $0.1608, 003.1% buys
15:3715:47: 015000 shrs, 03.34% of vol, VWAP $0.1607, 026.7% buys
15:4815:59: 067400 shrs, 15.00% of vol, VWAP $0.1606, 039.3% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1593$0.1593: 010000 shrs, 02.22% of vol, VWAP $0.1593, 000.0% buys
$0.1600$0.1621: 218800 shrs, 48.68% of vol, VWAP $0.1607, 019.9% buys
$0.1625$0.1649: 072500 shrs, 16.13% of vol, VWAP $0.1643, 093.1% buys
$0.1650$0.1650: 030000 shrs, 06.67% of vol, VWAP $0.1650, 050.0% buys
$0.1675$0.1691: 044500 shrs, 09.90% of vol, VWAP $0.1685, 000.0% buys
$0.1700$0.1720: 073680 shrs, 16.39% of vol, VWAP $0.1715, 093.2% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
03/27 $0.1576 07.40% 29.3%
03/28 $0.1672 +06.09% 54.2%
03/31 $0.1673 +00.05% 38.7%
04/01 $0.1664 00.48% 54.8%
04/02 $0.1748 +05.04% 34.3%
04/03 %0.1902 +08.79% 50.5%
04/04 $0.1882 01.07% 54.1%
04/07 $0.1834 02.52% 38.2%
04/08 $0.1747 04.78% 24.0%
04/09 $0.1791 +02.54% 35.5%
04/10 $0.1782 00.54% 32.9%
04/11 $0.1689 05.18% 17.0%
04/14 $0.1641 02.87% 43.3%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
04/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1223, x 80%: $0.0979
Vol in K, for above days: 449.48
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
04/11/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 120, MinTrSz: 2, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol: 876417, AvTrSz: 7303
Min. Pr: 0.1600, Max Pr: 0.1829, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1689
# Buys, Shares: 27 149421, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1727
# Sells, Shares: 91 726496, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1681
# Unkn, Shares: 2 500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1760
Buy:Sell 1:4.86 (17.05% "buys"), DlyShts 92234 (10.52%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 12.70%
ARCA was in premarket again with a 4K $0.249 offer and never moved it until 11:45, when they jumped to the front of the line with a $0.174 offer undercutting the best $0.175 at the time. With heavy and somewhat aggressive competition from WABR, NITE and ATDF, they popped in and out of the market all day long. They first exited at 11:59 and on reentry at 12:50 they matched WABR's $0.172 and they were gone again by 13:33. At 13:51 I saw them back with a $0.17 offer, matching ATDF and NITE at that level. At 14:21 they moved to offer $0.1695 and immediately $0.169, leaving ATDF and NITE at $0.17. One minute later $0.1682 and the shares were immediately taken and they were again out. At 14:34 they returned with $0.1682 again. It took almost a halfhour before the shares were taken and ARCA was out again at 15:01. They made one last appearance at 15:37 with a $0.165 offer. But the market was wise to them by now and ARCA had to move to $0.1645 at 15:58 to get the shares taken. It's beyond me why they got taken when trading in that time was close to $0.16 and bias was heavily "sell" (from the trading breakdown below: 15:4715:58: 093000 shrs, 10.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1612, 009.7% buys; without the 9K at $0.1645 it would be even weaker).
NITE again had a 200K offer at $0.21 in premarket, (likely a GTC order  the one first seen yesterday?) and sat on it for the rest of the day. As before, I suspect this will be hanging around hoping to get a push back up where they can unload but my take is that a drop lower will compel them to cut their losses and we'll see all or parts of that 200K being dissipated at either lower offers or silently hitting bids, which we can't see unless the offer happens to be visible at the time and we can see shares removed from that aggregate volume.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0954 vs. $0.0929, $0.0904, $0.0884, $0.0865, $0.0848, $0.0831, $0.0819, $0.0816 and $0.0812 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1351 vs. $0.1425, $0.1485, $0.1397, $0.1468, $0.1505, $0.1522, $0.1399, $0.1332 and $0.1338 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 8.57% and 3.74%, 5.18%, 264.86% and 139.51% respectively. Price spread today was 14.31% vs. 8.57% 5.71%, 9.40%, 7.78%, 11.30%, 14.22%, 5.88%, 19.76% and 14.20% on prior days.
These metrics were affected by one trade at 10:49:15 for 600 shares at $0.1829. Removal moves the high for the day to $0.1797, even further below yesterday's high. The the high movement becomes 5.42% instead of 3.74% and spread becomes 12.31% instead of 14.31%.
$0.1797 was a single trade, but it had 12.2K volume and was in line with other trades in the >= $0.1770$0.179x range.
On the low range, nothing unusual was noted.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 10 of the 120 trades, 8.33%. These 200,800 shares were 22.91% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1672. 0 of these trades, 0%, were buys of 0 shares, 0% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0000. 10 of the larger trades, 100.00%, were sells of 200,800 shares, 100.00% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1672.
The other 110 trades, 91.67% of the day's trades, traded 675,617 shares, 77.09% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1694. 27 trades, 24.55%, were buys and accounted for 149,421 shares, 22.12% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1727. 81 trades, 73.64%, were sells and accounted for 525,696 shares, 77.81% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1685. 2 trades, 1.82%, were "unknown" and accounted for 500 shares, 0.07% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1760.
Yesterday, after some explanation, I mentioned that with some trades discounted we would get a "gravestone doji", not a good sign. That doji was not a guarantee that we'd move lower, but it was very suggestive when combined with the traditional and unconventional stuff I went on to detail.
Today seems to have confirmed that's what we had. We got a noticeably lower low, high and VWAP on higher volume coupled with a close 6.53% lower (and would've been 9.09% if we discount that last $0.1645 trade detailed below and use $0.16 for the close). You can also see the effect in my nontraditional stuff, specifically the buy percentage and lower daily short sales percentage.
Short percentage Thursday had moved to 16.05% from Wednesday's small recovery to 25.79%. Both moves are in line with the buy percentage movements higher to 35.5% Wednesday and lower to 32.9% Thursday. Yesterday I said "Anyway, the current trend suggests no strength in price should be expected". We got no strength and today's 10.52% daily short percentage may not be the bottom. If "sells" dominate again at a similar, or even greater, level it could drop some more. I have no idea how likely this is but since I'm anticipating no real support until we get around $0.15, I wouldn't be surprised to see short percentage remain low, or at least not be able to move up much.
I had mentioned the possibility of some support at $0.16, but said I didn't think it would hold up well because it looked weak to me and was just a bottom of a brief sideways trading channel. In my 49 peeks at the bid during today's market hours, I never saw substantial volume on the bid at $0.16. There were some occurrences of good volume above and some more below though. This is not an unusual situation and I really don't read much into it yet. Those things will change as price moves around.
I'm still thinking that $0.15 is our best shot at some decent support nearby. The three touches of that horizontal line have some reasonable volume, including a 2.5MM share day on a move up 4/1, the third touch, on the way to 4/3's $0.18. That probably accounts for the subsequent move lower  what respectable trader would resist a 20% gain in just a few days? 4/3 traded ~2.64MM shares and we subsequently started showing the first signs of weakness.
If the PIPErs had shares purchased in the $0.08$0.09 area, they possibly got better than a double out of those shares.
Today's low was $0.16 on ~32K, two trades at 15:56. We then had one subsequent trade of $0.1645 for 9K at 15:58:57 that set the closing price. Strangely, this was a "sell" at the last offer price and volume I saw from ARCA at 15:52 of $0.1645 for 9K. But I happened to catch both best bid and offer at 15:58 and they were $0.1601 and $0.1675. This was before the trade. ADVFN, which is not reliable, IMO, showed the bid and offer at the time of the trade as $0.1601 and $0.1699 (meaning it should have been "unknown"). But my sell classification is based on both ADVFN's classification and the Power ETrade Pro "Time & Sales" b/a and trade data (I crossconfirm every trade between ETrade and ADVFN as neither are reliable). My best guess is this was an intrabroker, intraMM or intraexchange trade because I never saw a bid at that price. But I don't, and can't possibly, catch all the movements on the bids and offers, so I also could've just missed it.
I would say this was the fifth consecutive day I don't suspect any lastminute price manipulation attempt but I don't know whether to suspect that lastminute $0.1645 9K trade or not. It was above the very recent trading but didn't hit any bid that I saw. Ditto for the ask at the time, although it did match what I had seen from ARCA just six minutes prior to the trade.
On the traditional TA front, saying "there's still no sign of upward pressure" would qualify as an understatement. Maybe a little picture would be useful?
Axpw Daily 1 Year Snippet 20140411
I mentioned yesterday the high exactly touched my descending trend line, that if we discounted certain trades we had a "gravestone doji", and "... keep in mind that no substantial number of trades or volume occurred anywhere above $0.18, our old sideways trading channel resistance".
Nothing so complicated is needed today  we had lower high, low, VWAP and close on rising volume. Add in my unconventional trading breakdown, which includes buy percentages and VWAP, and the best hope that might approach rationality would be to start going sideways, which I don't expect yet. If we did I don't expect it would last long.
Full stochastic, of which I yesterday said "... is likely to enter oversold tomorrow, 4/11", did just that, catching a 17.79 reading today. RSI weakened and dropped below neutral today with a ~43.8 reading.
Of the Bollingers' I yesterday said "... It looks like the lower limit will continue convergence up until the price range moves seriously lower, which shouldn't be long in coming AFAICT". Did and done! The lower limit moved down from yesterday's slightly rising 0.158 to 0.1569.
Momentum, finally dropped below neutral to 0.9195 from yesterday's 1.0359. Definitely not a yawner today. ADX related continued weakening.
Lateday weakness which evidenced itself two consecutive days, though not pronounced, caused me to suggest it might bear watching. Today it was pronounced beginning with the period starting around 14:00. Trend or aberration? Don't know.
My original experimental inflection point calculations continue to engender mistrust. Yesterday's oneday changes improved in five periods and weakened in only one. The day before was three weaker and three improved. The change over five days had five improved and one weaker. However, the rate of change over five days did have four weakening and two improved versus the prior day's four improving periods and two weakening periods. Thanks for the "heads up"?
Anyway, as you might expect, the oneday changes have five weakening periods. One is marginally improved. The change over five days has all periods weaker and the average change is the same  all weaker.
The newer version oneday changes yesterday had all periods weakening and three with noticeable magnitude. The change over five days likewise had all six periods weakened and magnitude of change was large in most periods. The average change over those days had all weakening and several of the changes were large changes.
I said "This does not look at all positive" and today bore out that statement. Oneday changes continued yesterday's movement with all periods weakening again. The change over five days now has a three, two and one configuration for improved, weakened and essentially flat respectively. Average change over those days is four, one and one.
The newer version's chart pattern, which reduced it's weakening bias Wednesday, resumed it's trend of suggesting weakening prices nearterm on Thursday, when I said "Contrary to yesterday's "just suggests the rate of descent may not pick up steam", today [Thursday] suggests it is picking up steam". Today the five, ten and 25day lines show an acceleration of downward bias is beginning.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3010:00: 028325 shrs, 03.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1698, 000.0% buys
10:0710:25: 051658 shrs, 05.89% of vol, VWAP $0.1734, 043.0% buys
10:3610:56: 055600 shrs, 06.34% of vol, VWAP $0.1724, 001.1% buys
11:0711:18: 087000 shrs, 09.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1744, 037.9% buys
11:2211:37: 045865 shrs, 05.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1729, 000.0% buys
11:3812:08: 102925 shrs, 11.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1699, 000.0% buys
12:3313:22: 048625 shrs, 05.55% of vol, VWAP $0.1701, 000.0% buys
13:2313:46: 127000 shrs, 14.49% of vol, VWAP $0.1699, 018.1% buys
13:5914:27: 079200 shrs, 09.04% of vol, VWAP $0.1677, 047.5% buys
14:3315:01: 093819 shrs, 10.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1660, 025.5% buys
15:0315:22: 038100 shrs, 04.35% of vol, VWAP $0.1631, 000.0% buys
15:3415:45: 025300 shrs, 02.89% of vol, VWAP $0.1659, 000.0% buys
15:4715:58: 093000 shrs, 10.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1612, 009.7% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1600$0.1645: 159475 shrs, 18.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1617, 005.6% buys
$0.1650$0.1695: 255115 shrs, 29.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1680, 013.5% buys
$0.1700$0.1740: 405494 shrs, 46.27% of vol, VWAP $0.1710, 013.6% buys
$0.1750$0.1797: 055733 shrs, 06.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1783, 090.1% buys
$0.1829$0.1829: 000600 shrs, 00.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1829, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
03/26 $0.1702 +00.16% 30.5%
03/27 $0.1576 07.40% 29.3%
03/28 $0.1672 +06.09% 54.2%
03/31 $0.1673 +00.05% 38.7%
04/01 $0.1664 00.48% 54.8%
04/02 $0.1748 +05.04% 34.3%
04/03 %0.1902 +08.79% 50.5%
04/04 $0.1882 01.07% 54.1%
04/07 $0.1834 02.52% 38.2%
04/08 $0.1747 04.78% 24.0%
04/09 $0.1791 +02.54% 35.5%
04/10 $0.1782 00.54% 32.9%
04/11 $0.1689 05.18% 17.0%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
04/07: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1081, x 80%: $0.0865
04/08: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1105, x 80%: $0.0884
04/09: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1130, x 80%: $0.0904
04/10: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1161, x 80%: $0.0929
04/11: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1192, x 80%: $0.0954
Vol in K, for above days: 1,366.66 1,482.26 1,549.62 240.21 876.42.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
04/10/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 46, MinTrSz: 135, MaxTrSz: 15500, Vol: 240209, AvTrSz: 5222
Min. Pr: 0.1750, Max Pr: 0.1900, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1782
# Buys, Shares: 15 79009, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1797
# Sells, Shares: 31 161200, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1774
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.04 (32.89% "buys"), DlyShts 38509 (16.03%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 23.89%
I see a typo crept in to the 4/9 post (yesterday's). I corrected as follows:
Max Pr: 0.1850 (was 1.1839)
# Buys, Shares: ..., VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1820 (was 0.2002)
VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1791 (was 0.1856)
The rest looks OK.
ARCA was in premarket with a $0.249 offer and never moved it until 12:02, when some volume and bid/ask movement began to appear together. They plopped down an $0.18 offer ahead of ATDF and NITE. But it wasn't going to be easy for them today as we again have untoward aggression (hehe) by WABR: $0.179 offered four minutes later and $0.178 three minutes after that. Fortunately those offers and ARCA's $0.18 were taken and ARCA was back to $0.249 until 12:36 when ARCA again jumped ahead of the line with a $0.178 7K offer. Twentyone minutes later a buyer finally stepped up and ARCA was out of the market.
Something to keep in mind, maybe, is that NITE had a 200K offer at $0.21 at 12:32 and sat on it for the rest of the day. I suspect this will be hanging around hoping to get a push back up where they can unload. My take is that a drop lower will compel them to cut their losses and we'll see all or parts of that 200K being dissipated at either lower offers or silently hitting bids, which we can't see unless the offer happens to be visible at the time and the shares are sold from that aggregate volume.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0929 vs. $0.0904, $0.0884, $0.0865, $0.0848, $0.0831, $0.0819, $0.0816, $0.0812 and $0.0807 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1425 vs. $0.1485, $0.1397, $0.1468, $0.1505, $0.1522, $0.1399, $0.1332, $0.1338 and $0.1337 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, 2.70%, 0.54%, 84.50% and 90.36% respectively. Price spread today was 8.57% vs. 5.71%, 9.40%, 7.78%, 11.30%, 14.22%, 5.88%, 19.76%, 14.20% and 14.23% on prior days.
These metrics were affected by two trades at the open for 2,000 and 700 shares at $0.19. There's five more I'll want to examine too. But for these two, removal moves the high for the day to $0.1839, below yesterday's high. The the high movement becomes 0.59% and spread becomes 5.09%.
The sad part is that next higher price was set by two trades of 2K and 1K. This suggests that looking at effects of excluding them might be handy. Removing those $0.1839 trades moves the high to $0.1821. The the high movement becomes 1.57% and spread becomes 4.06%.
Unfortunately, that lower high was set by one trade of 5K and the next lower high, $0.1816, by one trade of 2K. I won't examine effects of removing them, but you can see the weakness this implies. We did finally get a "high we can believe in" (no, not from Colorado weed) at $0.18 as number of trades and volume was substantial.
The largest trades today were 15K and there were only two, both at $0.18.
I suggested yesterday that after three consecutive days of lower highs and VWAPs, and volume rising on the prior down day (indicating strength in the down move) we finally got very small breather. On the typical TA charts it will appear that we're trying to push up again, but with low volume. However, if we remove those six trades (four of which occurred in the first halfhour) totaling only 12.7K, we see that we topped right at $0.18 with some volume in the number and quantity of the trades. With a low of $0.175 that would yield a "gravestone doji", not a good sign. That doji is not a guarantee that we'll move lower, but it is very suggestive when combined with the traditional and unconventional stuff below.
Short percentage yesterday moved to 16.05% from yesterday's small recovery to 25.79%. Both moves are in line with the buy percentage movements higher to 35.5% yesterday and lower to 32.9% today. The correlation is always only directional, not linear in magnitude. Anyway, the current trend suggests no strength in price should be expected.
For the fourth consecutive day I don't suspect any lastminute price manipulation attempt.
On the traditional TA front there's still no sign of upward pressure. No sign of downward pressure either. With very low volume, none of this is surprising.
Today's high exactly touched my descending trend line. Keep in mind the high was established by two abnormal, for today, trades described above. Also keep in mind that no substantial number of trades or volume occurred anywhere above $0.18, our old sideways trading channel resistance.
Full stochastic continued to fall today and is likely to enter oversold tomorrow, 4/11. RSI, which had a tiny uptick yesterday to 59.5, got another one to 60.01  inconsequential other than it did not weaken. The Bollingers' still have a flat upper limit as the lower limit continues tiny incremental moves up. It looks like the lower limit will continue convergence up until the price range moves seriously lower, which shouldn't be long in coming AFAICT.
Momentum, after getting a small bump up to a reading of 1.03 yesterday from 1.01, stayed essentially flat at 1.0359. Still nothing but a yawner there. ADX related continued the weakening started after yesterday's one day flat breather.
Lateday weakness continued to evidence itself, although still not pronounced. Two consecutive days though  might bear watching.
My original experimental inflection point calculations have oneday changes improved in five periods and weakening in only one. Yesterday was three weaker and three improved. Again today, all changes were small. The change over five days moved from three and three to five improved and one weaker wit, again, all small changes. However, the rate of change over five days has four weakening and two improved versus yesterday's four improving periods and two weakening periods. A couple on each side are noticeable magnitudes.
The newer version oneday changes, which had all periods improving yesterday, albeit with weak moves, now has all weakening and three are of noticeable magnitude. The change over five days returned to all six periods weakened of two days ago from yesterday's split three and three with minor changes. The magnitude of change was large in most periods. The average change over those days has all weakening and several of the changes are large. This does not look at all positive.
The newer version's chart pattern, which reduced it's weakening bias yesterday, has resumed it's trend of suggesting weakening prices near term. Contrary to yesterday's "just suggests the rate of descent may not pick up steam", today suggests it is picking up steam.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:55: 005700 shrs, 02.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1868, 100.0% buys
10:4911:58: 042500 shrs, 17.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1798, 051.8% buys
12:0612:31: 074500 shrs, 31.01% of vol, VWAP $0.1793, 013.4% buys
12:5713:27: 059500 shrs, 24.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1770, 047.1% buys
13:4515:43: 027200 shrs, 11.32% of vol, VWAP $0.1750, 000.0% buys
15:4415:55: 030809 shrs, 12.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1765, 043.2% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1750$0.1797: 140009 shrs, 58.29% of vol, VWAP $0.1765, 036.6% buys
$0.1800$0.1839: 097500 shrs, 40.59% of vol, VWAP $0.1803, 025.6% buys
$0.1900$0.1900: 002700 shrs, 01.12% of vol, VWAP $0.1900, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
03/25 $0.1699 +00.42% 57.8%
03/26 $0.1702 +00.16% 30.5%
03/27 $0.1576 07.40% 29.3%
03/28 $0.1672 +06.09% 54.2%
03/31 $0.1673 +00.05% 38.7%
04/01 $0.1664 00.48% 54.8%
04/02 $0.1748 +05.04% 34.3%
04/03 %0.1902 +08.79% 50.5%
04/04 $0.1882 01.07% 54.1%
04/07 $0.1834 02.52% 38.2%
04/08 $0.1747 04.78% 24.0%
04/09 $0.1791 +02.54% 35.5%
04/10 $0.1782 00.54% 32.9%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
04/07: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1081, x 80%: $0.0865
04/08: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1105, x 80%: $0.0884
04/09: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1130, x 80%: $0.0904
04/10: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1161, x 80%: $0.0929
Vol in K, for above days: 1,366.66 1,482.26 1,549.62 240.21.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
04/09/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 127, MinTrSz: 60, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 1549619, AvTrSz: 12202
Min. Pr: 0.1750, Max Pr: 0.1850, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1791
# Buys, Shares: 51 550047, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1820
# Sells, Shares: 76 999572, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1775
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.82 (35.50% "buys"), DlyShts 399643 (25.79%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 39.98%
I see a typo crept in to the 4/9 post. I corrected as follows:
Max Pr: 0.1850 (was 1.1839)
# Buys, Shares: ..., VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1820 (was 0.2002)
VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1791 (was 0.1856)
The rest looks OK.
ARCA was again aggressively in and out all day. They were accompanied in this effort again by WABR, ATDF, NITE, CSTI, ... I was surprised price held as well as it did. The buy percentage is telling the true story, along with a low daily short percentage.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0904 vs. $0.0884, $0.0865, $0.0848, $0.0831, $0.0819, $0.0816, $0.0812, $0.0807 and $0.0800 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1485 vs. $0.1397, $0.1468, $0.1505, $0.1522, $0.1399, $0.1332, $0.1338, $0.1337 and $0.1261 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 3.49%, 0.00%, 2.54%, 4.54% and 78.90% respectively. Price spread today was 5.71% vs. 9.40%, 7.78%, 11.30%, 14.22%, 5.88%, 19.76%, 14.20%, 14.23% and 10.67% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 31 of the 127 trades, 24.41%. These 943,090 shares were 60.86% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1791. 10 of these trades, 32.26%, were buys of 328,177 shares, 34.80% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1823. 21 of the larger trades, 67.74%, were sells of 614,913 shares, 65.20% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1774.
The other 96 trades, 75.59% of the day's trades, traded 606,529 shares, 39.14% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1792. 41 trades, 42.71%, were buys and accounted for 221,870 shares, 36.58% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1817. 55 trades, 57.29%, were sells and accounted for 384,659 shares, 63.42% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1777.
After three consecutive days of lower highs and VWAPs, and volume rising on yesterday's down day, indicating strength in the down move, we finally got very small breather. The low was higher, the high was flat and the VWAP was up along with volume. But the volume move was inconsequential (~70K shares). Even buy percentage improved. Unfortunately the recent "I believed we'd be shortly testing the strength of $0.18 as a support level and I believed it would fail to hold" has been proven on target. Yesterday's close was $.172 and we closed again below $0.18, which I said was likely, so we confirmed we've moved at least back into the trading channel we left on 4/3. Again, support for the channel is down at $0.15 and there's a potential pause provided by a sideways move bottom around $0.16, but it does not have any indication of strength because volume was low and when we exited we went down on rising volume.
Short percentage yesterday moved from 27.24% to 15.07%. Today it recovered a bit, in line with the buy percentage recovery from 24% to 35.5% today. Everything working as expected here.
For the third consecutive day there was no lastminute price manipulation attempt.
On the traditional TA front there's still no sign of upward pressure.
Did I mention my new trend line? Originating at the high of 3/10, $0.23 and having touches now at 4/3, 4/4 and 4/7, we have a confirmed falling resistance in play. All are with "good" volume and two of those days' buy percentages (nontraditional metric) were relatively good (50.54%, 54.09% and 38.16% respectively). Good volume and good buy percentages provided the best opportunity to break above resistance and it didn't happen. Two of those three days were up days too.
Combined with the flat support and resistance line at $0.18, we make a descending triangle. However, there's too much white space to apply Bulkowski's results to guess at a direction of a break out. So I'll just look at the descending resistance, which I assess as having some strength.
Full stochastic continued to fall today while RSI had a tiny uptick. The Bollingers' have a flat upper limit as the lower limit makes tiny incremental moves up  convergence is almost random now.
Momentum is no longer essentially flat just above neutral. After dropping to effectively right at neutral, reading 1.01, it rebound slightly today to 1.03. Nothing but a yawner there. ADX related started weakening again after a one day flat breather.
Today had the return of lateday weakness, but it wasn't pronounced and with just one day of it we can't decide if it's a trend yet.
My original experimental inflection point calculations have oneday changes going from four weaker and two improved to three weaker and three improved. All were small changes though. The change over five days moved from one improved and five weaker to three and three as well. The rate of change over five days has four improving periods and two weakening periods. No big moves there.
The newer version oneday changes, which had continued a weakening trend with increasing magnitude yesterday, moved to all periods improving today, albeit with weak moves. The change over five days, which had all six periods weakened yesterday, split three and three with minor changes. However, the average change over those days has only one improving while all other weaken.
The newer version's chart pattern reduced it's weakening bias. This does not indicate an upward move, but just suggests the rate of descent may not pick up steam.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:4310:24: 039599 shrs, 02.56% of vol, VWAP $0.1775, 031.8% buys
10:3810:41: 059900 shrs, 03.87% of vol, VWAP $0.1823, 066.6% buys
10:4210:52: 039000 shrs, 02.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1764, 041.0% buys
10:5911:25: 072280 shrs, 04.66% of vol, VWAP $0.1805, 009.0% buys
11:3811:52: 085090 shrs, 05.49% of vol, VWAP $0.1782, 062.3% buys
11:5312:15: 094000 shrs, 06.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1757, 000.0% buys
12:2513:08: 036000 shrs, 02.32% of vol, VWAP $0.1774, 013.9% buys
13:1313:28: 134633 shrs, 08.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1826, 070.6% buys
13:2914:09: 405427 shrs, 26.16% of vol, VWAP $0.1821, 057.0% buys
14:1614:43: 208190 shrs, 13.43% of vol, VWAP $0.1782, 043.6% buys
15:1115:14: 103000 shrs, 06.65% of vol, VWAP $0.1769, 000.0% buys
15:1515:26: 100000 shrs, 06.45% of vol, VWAP $0.1765, 000.0% buys
15:3815:59: 172500 shrs, 11.13% of vol, VWAP $0.1753, 000.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1750$0.1755: 317145 shrs, 20.47% of vol, VWAP $0.1751, 000.0% buys
$0.1760$0.1790: 493845 shrs, 31.87% of vol, VWAP $0.1774, 017.4% buys
$0.1800$0.1849: 673629 shrs, 43.47% of vol, VWAP $0.1817, 059.3% buys
$0.1850$1.1839: 065000 shrs, 04.19% of vol, VWAP $0.3387, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
03/21 $0.1704 +01.78% 44.5%
03/24 $0.1692 00.71% 27.9%
03/25 $0.1699 +00.42% 57.8%
03/26 $0.1702 +00.16% 30.5%
03/27 $0.1576 07.40% 29.3%
03/28 $0.1672 +06.09% 54.2%
03/31 $0.1673 +00.05% 38.7%
04/01 $0.1664 00.48% 54.8%
04/02 $0.1748 +05.04% 34.3%
04/03 %0.1902 +08.79% 50.5%
04/04 $0.1882 01.07% 54.1%
04/07 $0.1834 02.52% 38.2%
04/08 $0.1747 04.78% 24.0%
04/09 $0.1791 +02.54% 35.5%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
04/07: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1081, x 80%: $0.0865
04/08: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1105, x 80%: $0.0884
04/09: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1130, x 80%: $0.0904
Vol in K, for above days: 1,366.66 1,482.26 1,549.62.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
04/08/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 180, MinTrSz: 17, MaxTrSz: 82400, Vol: 1482262, AvTrSz: 8235
Min. Pr: 0.1691, Max Pr: 0.1850, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1747
# Buys, Shares: 54 356136, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1760
# Sells, Shares: 126 1126126, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1743
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:3.16 (24.03% "buys"), DlyShts 223389 (15.07%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 19.84%
ARCA was in and out all day, very frequently and very aggressively, undercutting the offer on each appearance.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is $0.0884 vs. $0.0865, $0.0848, $0.0831, $0.0819, $0.0816, $0.0812, $0.0807, $0.0800 and $0.0792 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1397 vs. $0.1468, $0.1505, $0.1522, $0.1399, $0.1332, $0.1338, $0.1337, $0.1261 and $0.1361 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 6.06%, 4.64%, 4.78%, 8.46% and 41.07% respectively. Price spread today was 9.40% vs. 7.78%, 11.30%, 14.22%, 5.88%, 19.76%, 14.20%, 14.23%, 10.67% and 6.71% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 23 of the 180 trades, 12.78%. These 525,450 shares were 35.45% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1759. 5 of these trades, 21.74%, were buys of 91,500 shares, 17.41% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1772. 18 of the larger trades, 78.26%, were sells of 433,950 shares, 82.59% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1756.
The other 157 trades, 87.22% of the day's trades, traded 956,812 shares, 64.55% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1740. 49 trades, 31.21%, were buys and accounted for 264,636 shares, 27.66% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1755. 108 trades, 68.79%, were sells and accounted for 692,176 shares, 72.34% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1735.
Continuing yesterday's "longterm bullish, shortterm not so much" theme, it's not too soon to tell that we're dropping now. We've now had three consecutive days of lower highs and VWAPs, and volume on this down day rose, indicating strength in the down move. Buy percentage was again down substantially. Yesterday I said I believed we'd be shortly testing the strength of $0.18 as a support level and I believed it would fail to hold. Today's close was $.172. If we close again below $0.18, which is likely, we confirm we've moved at least back into the trading channel we left on 4/3. Support for the channel is down at $0.15 and there's a potential pause provided by a sideways move bottom around $0.16, but it does not have any indication of strength because volume was low and when we exited we went down on rising volume.
Regarding short percentage yesterday I said it was low enough that I suspected lower pricing and even lower short sales percentage to show up and buy percentage should also taper off. Today short percentage moved from 27.24% to 15.07%, we know what pricing did already, and buy percentage dropped from 38.2% to 24%. This trend is not over yet I think.
For the second consecutive day there was no lastminute price manipulation attempt.
On the traditional TA front the upward pressure is completely gone.
Full stochastic continued to fall today. RSI again weakened noticeably to ~57.8, approaching neutral territory. The Bollingers' convergence, is near zip now.
Momentum is no longer essentially flat just above neutral. It dropped to effectively right at neutral, reading 1.01. ADX related stopped weakening and is now flat.
There's still no sure sign of lateday weakness or strength. This is the fourth day where I can't see much to lead to a conclusion of what's going to be "normal" behavior.
My original experimental inflection point calculations have oneday changes going from all six weaker to four weaker and to improved. The big moves are negative in the five and tenday periods. The change over five days moved from four weakened and only two improved to one improved and five weaker. The rate of change over five days is the same.
The newer version oneday changes, which two days ago deteriorated badly to all periods weakening with nonminor moves and continued that yesterday except the magnitude of the moves was smaller, continues to weaken today with increasing magnitude. The change over five days, which had five periods weakened, now has all six weakened. It's the same for the average change over those days.
The newer version's chart pattern, increased it's weakening bias.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:40: 136217 shrs, 09.19% of vol, VWAP $0.1801, 002.8% buys
09:4310:13: 077600 shrs, 05.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1765, 001.0% buys
10:1610:42: 079000 shrs, 05.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1736, 019.0% buys
10:4911:00: 113000 shrs, 07.62% of vol, VWAP $0.1749, 044.2% buys
11:0011:17: 095532 shrs, 06.45% of vol, VWAP $0.1750, 025.7% buys
11:1811:48: 179323 shrs, 12.10% of vol, VWAP $0.1712, 041.7% buys
11:4912:28: 119800 shrs, 08.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1719, 008.5% buys
12:3212:58: 091800 shrs, 06.19% of vol, VWAP $0.1725, 042.3% buys
13:0213:28: 100300 shrs, 06.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1713, 017.9% buys
13:3414:12: 147900 shrs, 09.98% of vol, VWAP $0.1730, 017.9% buys
14:1714:59: 131350 shrs, 08.86% of vol, VWAP $0.1770, 029.2% buys
15:0015:27: 079166 shrs, 05.34% of vol, VWAP $0.1801, 033.1% buys
15:3215:45: 036800 shrs, 02.48% of vol, VWAP $0.1776, 000.0% buys
15:4615:56: 094474 shrs, 06.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1751, 030.8% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1691$0.1693: 050000 shrs, 03.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1692, 000.0% buys
$0.1700$0.1720: 554223 shrs, 37.39% of vol, VWAP $0.1713, 013.0% buys
$0.1725$0.1745: 196800 shrs, 13.28% of vol, VWAP $0.1735, 042.0% buys
$0.1750$0.1771: 266849 shrs, 18.00% of vol, VWAP $0.1757, 026.3% buys
$0.1780$0.1798: 203333 shrs, 13.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1790, 036.6% buys
$0.1800$0.1800: 185417 shrs, 12.51% of vol, VWAP $0.1800, 016.8% buys
$0.1840$0.1850: 025640 shrs, 01.73% of vol, VWAP $0.1848, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
03/20 $0.1674 01.08% 75.6%
03/21 $0.1704 +01.78% 44.5%
03/24 $0.1692 00.71% 27.9%
03/25 $0.1699 +00.42% 57.8%
03/26 $0.1702 +00.16% 30.5%
03/27 $0.1576 07.40% 29.3%
03/28 $0.1672 +06.09% 54.2%
03/31 $0.1673 +00.05% 38.7%
04/01 $0.1664 00.48% 54.8%
04/02 $0.1748 +05.04% 34.3%
04/03 %0.1902 +08.79% 50.5%
04/04 $0.1882 01.07% 54.1%
04/07 $0.1834 02.52% 38.2%
04/08 $0.1747 04.78% 24.0%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue:
04/07: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1081, x 80%: $0.0865
04/08: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1105, x 80%: $0.0884
Vol in K, for above days: 1,366.66 1,482.26.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
Disclosure: I am long AXPW.
Additional disclosure: I am very experimental and sometimes do my TA in nontraditional fashions. Keep this in mind when considering anything I post and be sure and consult other sources and do your due diligence. I'm barely responsible for myself and certainly not responsible for anyone else or their actions. :)
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