Full index of posts »
StockTalks

AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 12/01/2014 $AXPW http://seekingalpha.com/p/237ad Nov 29, 2014

(UQM) Short Interest Table $UQM http://seekingalpha.com/p/233uh Nov 27, 2014

Because This Is The Only Way I Can Get Charts Into My Real Blogs ... $AXPW http://seekingalpha.com/p/22tij Nov 22, 2014
Latest Comments
 H. T. Love on A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 7/25/2016 AFAIK "cashless exercise" has the nas...
 H. T. Love on A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 7/25/2016 "Did I miss that piece?"Not that I sa...
 Crunching Numbers on A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 7/25/2016 HTLThanks for the link... Is there something I...
 Crunching Numbers on A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 7/25/2016 HTL"We'll never know why I guess."Or...
 H. T. Love on A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 7/25/2016 There was one good thing: "Certain of the ...
 H. T. Love on A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 7/25/2016 Just finished the article  you got the main po...
Most Commented
 A speculative play on UQM ( Comments)
 A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 2/7/2015 ( Comments)
 Swine Flu, MERS, Ebola And Medical News Concentrator Nov 4, 2015 ( Comments)
 A Speculative Play On UQM Beginning 7/25/2016 ( Comments)
 AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting ( Comments)
AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 05/01/2014 33 comments
Links to blogs older than the 01/01/2014 version, PIPE discussions, one year charts will be found only in that and older blogs. Most historical short sales related stuff has also been chopped.
In the below chart the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!
(rightclick and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)
Next are modified inflection point calculation charts bracketing a price chart for comparison. The false bullish moves and contrary moves of the 5day are gone.
The two identically calculated inflection points are calculated differently from the original above. I have two different presentations of this newer version. The top one has all periods on the same scale. The bottom one has longer periods on the left scale and shorter periods on the right scale. The hope is that shorter period changes will be easier to spot. More work to do, this is a start, hopefully.
Other changes I want to try are still waiting for me to work on them.
(rightclick and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)
Older stuff for "2013 Dly Sht % of 'sells' values", Weekly 85% price summaries going back to 6/14/2012, and some daytoday VWAP changes stuff going back to 10/09 are available in AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 10/1/2013.
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'", inflection point calculation values, and endofweek 80% (was 85%) PIPE price factors are now only in the latest daily comment.
The PIPE agreement was amended, changing the 85% calculation to 80%, among other minor things. See AXION POWER INTERNATIONAL, INC., FORM 8K, Filed 01/03/14 for the Period Ending 01/02/14.
05/30/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 87, MinTrSz: 99, MaxTrSz: 105000, Vol: 996717, AvTrSz: 11457
Min. Pr: 0.1530, Max Pr: 0.1760, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1640
# Buys, Shares: 14 67899, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1698
# Sells, Shares: 73 928818, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1636
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:13.68 (06.81% "buys"), DlyShts 50916 (05.11%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 5.48%
I didn't do any thinking about yesterday's stuff because of the low volume, 10 trades for 56K shares. The only thing it meant to me was something was changing and I had nothing on which to hazard guesses as to cause, direction or magnitude. I did wonder (to myself) if it might be related to the "Preliminary Consent Solicitation Statement, Schedule 14A" that had been dominating the concentrator conversations for some time, but I had no way to assess that probability.
Today's trading was a stark contrast to yesterday's. We had a big comeback in volume, which unfortunately carried a load of "baggage" with it. Now I wonder if it's related to "Definitive Consent Solicitation Statement, Schedule 14A", which appeared in my email ~17:30 on 5/29/14. Maybe it's due to the 100MM shares authorized proposal? I don't see anything in the revere split proposal itself that could cause much reaction, but a lot of concern has been expressed about the authorized share number. Maybe Thursday's low volume was folks waiting to see what was proposed for authorized shares and running for the doors once it was known?
Looking at the trading breakdown by time, the trend was almost uniformly down for the whole day. Then, even if we discount the oddball lows for the day and use $0.16 as a low, we get the low change of 6.27%. If we keep those trades it's 10.37%. If we keep the three oddball high trades, our high moved 0.00%. If we discount them and use $0.17 as the high, it moved 3.41%. The VWAP dropped 6.29%.
This results in what I believe is the start (and maybe end too?) of the "leg down" to ~$0.1550 or so (we hit $0.1530 today) that I've been yammering about as I worried repetitively about low volume making our move up since 5/23 very suspect. I also doubted it because of the longestablished pattern of reduced price weakening, and even some price appreciation, in the last week of the month and into the first week of the following month. Another yammer point of mine.
The thing I want to mention here about the "leg down" is that we don't know if it's ended. Today's volume was large enough that we might have seen a quick exit by all those that wanted to do that.
We do know we had a trading channel of $0.15  $0.18 which had been in effect from 3/12 onward, with an excursion above 4/3  4/10. The drop from that excursion took us directly below $0.15 in one "leg down" 4/11  4/16 (four trading days), blowing right through potential support at $0.15, from whence we traded sideways in roughly the range of $0.125 to $0.15 until 5/14, when we spiked up to $0.1891 and immediately dropped back into the $0.15$0.18 band. We then went sideways again with a high around $0.18 and a low where the 50day SMA was ($0.159 to $0.158x).
The point of this recitation is that $0.15 has been demonstrated support only a few times, and didn't demonstrate strength IMO, but did act as strong resistance when tested from below. So if the leg down isn't over, we should expect $0.15 to be tested and I'm not hugely optimistic that it would hold.
The traditional TA oscillators have been weakening, slowly, beginning 5/29 (the 10 trade day) with the exception of the full stochastic and the ADX and related. They started weakening today. Since today is "high volume", relatively, I would give them some credence.
I mentioned yesterday that VWAP improvement broke down after three consecutive days of improvement. Today continued the breakdown with a fall of 6.29% with volume supporting the seriousness of this move.
In my nontraditional TA area, I mentioned buy percentage stopped moving in a "robust" fashion and listed 5/19 forward percentages. Today tops it off. 5/23 onward: 72.4%, 91.4%, 68.3%, 39.3% and 6.81% today. Yesterday I said "I guess it had to end as I've been saying I don't look for it to sustain because it's typical EOM behavior and yesterday's 10, 25, 50 and 100day averages, 57.06%, 43.68%, 43.84% and 41.89% respectively, were way below what we saw the last few days".
At 6.81% buys, maybe I should quit saying things like that! Today was the fifth lowest I've recorded. For a little context:
_Date__ Buy % Sell % WVAP
2/21/13 0.00% 100.0% 0.2967
4/18/13 0.67% 91.21% 0.2604
2/25/13 5.43% 94.43% 0.2973
4/10/12 6.38% 88.05% 0.4249
5/30/14 6.81% 93.19% 0.1640
04/1/13 7.92% 92.08% 0.2707
08/1/12 8.97% 91.03% 0.3310
1/15/13 9.31% 90.69% 0.3597
1/30/14 9.64% 80.81% 0.0946
Regarding my newer experimental inflection point calculations I had mentioned my concerns resided in the lack of volume supporting the switch to three consecutive all periods improved days and the fact that improvements in price, or at least reduction in deterioration, is a common endofmonth behavior. Two days back at least we had some volume improvement and I posited "Maybe a trend will emerge".
Of course, that failed yesterday. Not only did we have no volume yesterday with a falling VWAP, but our trend of all periods improved came to a screeching halt with five periods weakening. Today the readings, as could be expected, were worse with a ll periods weaker.
_5day_ 10day_ 25day_ _50day_ 100day_ 200day_
060.72 207.92 413.34 0916.84 2448.23 6947.28
036.38 190.83 454.88 1196.33 3084.48 8182.46
088.78 235.41 491.00 1166.26 3162.90 8257.22
+009.29 140.06 398.10 0933.55 2615.14 7265.81
+043.36 027.57 263.59 0756.84 2058.02 6301.70
+082.46 +068.93 152.23 0420.62 1055.40 4502.46
+078.59 +076.59 207.81 0552.71 1329.60 5014.06
064.47 144.96 507.17 1242.89 2759.45 7514.75
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is: $0.1130 vs. $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130 and $0.1130 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1312 vs. $0.1400, $0.1404, $0.1327, $0.1295, $0.1271, $0.1293, $0.1309, $0.1348 and $0.1333 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
The day's three highestpriced trades occurred between 9:59 and 10:14: $0.1750 x 5,500, $0.1751 x 10,000 and $0.1760 x 5000. All were "sells". All other trades were $0.17 or lower.
The seven lowestpriced trades, $0.1530 (2), $0.1540 (4) and $0.1571 (1), totaling 91,100 shares, occurred from 15:53 to 15:56. All were "sells". All other trades were $0.1600 or higher.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 10.37%, 0.00%, 6.29%, 1679.79% and 139.04% respectively. Price spread today was 15.03% vs. 5.26%, 5.56%, 3.49%, 5.77%, 5.17%, 4.85%, 12.50%, 17.61% and 29.52% on prior days.
If we use $0.1600 for the low and $0.17 for the high, today's low, high and VWAP changes would be 6.27%, 3.41% and 6.29% respectively. The spread would be 6.25%.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 15 of the 87 trades, 17.24%. These 627,540 shares were 62.96% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1633. None of the larger trades were buys. All 15 larger trades, 100.00%, were sells of 627,540 shares, 100.00% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1633.
The other 72 trades, 82.76% of the day's trades, traded 369,177 shares, 37.04% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1652. 14 trades, 19.44%, were buys and accounted for 67,899 shares, 18.39% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1698. 58 trades, 80.56%, were sells and accounted for 301,278 shares, 81.61% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1641.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the days high was in the first timeframe for one "sell" of 5K at $0.1760. Two other trades occurred in that period at $0.1751 x 10K and $0.1750 x 5.5K, both sells.
09:5910:14: 020500 shrs, 02.06% of vol, VWAP $0.1753, 000.0% buys
10:1410:29: 206300 shrs, 20.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1695, 018.7% buys
10:3810:54: 033199 shrs, 03.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1685, 024.7% buys
10:5510:59: 371000 shrs, 37.22% of vol, VWAP $0.1650, 001.9% buys
11:0011:26: 092901 shrs, 09.32% of vol, VWAP $0.1601, 002.2% buys
12:0412:30: 082219 shrs, 08.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1600, 000.0% buys
12:5815:03: 007000 shrs, 00.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1618, 015.7% buys
15:3115:52: 081498 shrs, 08.18% of vol, VWAP $0.1604, 000.0% buys
15:5315:56: 102100 shrs, 10.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1554, 010.8% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the low of the day was set with two trades, 35K and 3K, at 15L54 for $0.1530.
$0.1530$0.1571: 091100 shrs, 09.14% of vol, VWAP $0.1537, 000.0% buys
$0.1600$0.1615: 290518 shrs, 29.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1603, 000.0% buys
$0.1650$0.1699: 455800 shrs, 45.73% of vol, VWAP $0.1661, 003.1% buys
$0.1700$0.1700: 138799 shrs, 13.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1700, 038.8% buys
$0.1750$0.1760: 020500 shrs, 02.06% of vol, VWAP $0.1753, 000.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
05/14 $0.1717 +22.93% 42.3%
05/15 $0.1690 01.59% 68.0%
05/16 $0.1666 01.41% 34.5%
05/19 $0.1685 +01.17% 63.5%
05/20 $0.1635 02.97% 49.5%
05/21 $0.1616 01.18% 42.7%
05/22 $0.1588 01.72% 38.2%
05/23 $0.1618 +01.88% 72.4%
05/27 $0.1659 +02.52% 91.4%
05/28 $0.1755 +05.79% 68.3%
05/29 $0.1750 00.28% 39.3%
05/30 $0.1640 06.29% 06.8%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
05/27: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
05/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
05/29: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
05/30: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
Vol in K, for above days: 232.10 320.59 56.00 996.72.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are omitted from the concentrator.
Week ending values related to the PIPE 85% (80% 1/3/14 forward) share pricing:
04/04: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1060, x 80%: $0.0848 VWAP $0.1882
04/11: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1192, x 80%: $0.0954 VWAP $0.1689
04/17: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1286, x 80%: $0.1029 VWAP $0.1376
04/25: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1418, x 80%: $0.1135 VWAP $0.1471
05/02: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1495, x 80%: $0.1196 VWAP $0.1369
05/09: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1431, x 80%: $0.1145 VWAP $0.1145
05/16: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130 VWAP $0.1666
05/23: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130 VWAP $0.1618
Vol, in thousands, for above weeks: 9,037, 5,515, 4103 (4 day wk), 2,272, 5,300, 2,695, 4,058, 1,662.
On my ORIGINAL inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
 1day change 
05/20 +29.9% +09.9% +02.2% +09.4% +06.4% +00.3%
05/21 +61.4% +27.9% +14.8% +01.0% +01.6% +00.2%
05/22 213.2% 24.2% 07.0% +06.8% +00.8% +00.9%
05/23 +116.5% +33.9% +03.5% +02.2% +01.9% +00.8%
05/27 +209.3% +66.8% +15.7% 04.0% +02.6% +00.6%
05/28 +52.8% +92.8% 07.1% 05.8% +02.9% +00.6%
05/29 +05.2% +1207.7% 04.4% 01.2% +00.1% +00.0%
05/30 197.2% 457.4% 28.8% 15.5% 04.8% 01.2%
 5day change 
05/20 +026.1% +18864.1% 005.7% +101.4% +025.5% +047.9%
05/21 +007.2% +111.9% 004.9% 056.8% 001.2% +189.0%
05/22 047.3% 110.8% 053.0% +060.8% 024.0% +092.1%
05/23 +151.7% +1327.0% +046.6% 015.2% +021.1% +147.5%
05/27 026.0% +042.5% 020.1% +030.2% +012.0% +017.9%
05/28 002.9% +008.8% 025.8% 095.7% 030.1% +011.3%
05/29 029.0% 011.1% 088.3% 312.7% 015.9% 004.7%
05/30 082.5% 061.5% 740.3% 1474.8% 064.8% 071.1%
 5day rate of change 
05/20 003.4% +011.2% 008.6% +457.8% 010.8% +083.6%
05/21 024.2% 023.5% 050.2% 091.7% 031.3% +070.7%
05/22 +006.2% 155.5% 075.6% +164.7% 082.2% +009.3%
05/23 +024.7% +444.0% +072.6% 112.4% +167.5% +047.7%
05/27 084.0% +006.0% 262.9% +693.8% 001.0% 014.5%
05/28 091.4% 015.9% 012.4% 463.4% 232.7% 004.3%
05/29 1732.0% 047.6% 048.0% +048.0% 035.1% 032.8%
05/30 026.2% 002.4% +018.6% 259.7% 038.4% 104.1%
On my NEWER inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
 1day change 
05/20 051.00% 029.17% 066.33% 076.94% 060.92% 037.69%
05/21 +039.99% +008.36% 009.49% 029.50% 025.13% 017.24%
05/22 144.02% 023.36% 007.94% +002.51% 002.54% 000.91%
05/23 +110.47% +040.50% +018.92% +019.95% +017.32% +012.01%
05/27 +497.69% +105.55% +056.22% +046.75% +044.41% +028.68%
05/28 +090.15% +350.05% +042.25% +044.42% +048.72% +028.55%
05/29 004.69% +011.11% 036.51% 031.41% 025.98% 011.36%
05/30 182.03% 289.28% 144.06% 124.87% 107.54% 049.87%
 5day change 
05/20 016.20% 032.16% 039.46% 072.67% 079.12% 107.29%
05/21 111.61% 877.92% 257.60% 2115.46% 1774.07% 4797.10%
05/22 336.05% +005.37% +015.54% +032.97% +024.52% +025.48%
05/23 +313.67% +112.91% +070.01% +049.83% +049.52% +047.19%
05/27 +003.14% +550.06% +170.02% +102.88% +104.92% +095.06%
05/28 +071.20% +107.77% +1845.67% +310.82% +362.69% +297.17%
05/29 019.65% 003.51% 006.14% +027.91% +024.50% +027.93%
05/30 078.85% 066.18% 106.55% 111.90% 077.01% 076.57%
 5day rate of change 
05/20 022.61% 034.88% 039.27% 011.06% 793.38% 477.44%
05/21 179.30% 1034.08% 596.54% 1727.58% 1023.26% 820.09%
05/22 +080.07% +036.10% +045.29% +048.82% +041.65% +043.38%
05/23 +556.47% +114.61% +045.97% +047.94% +045.21% +046.87%
05/27 108.24% +190.37% 021.74% +063.41% +052.54% +055.69%
05/28 +405.60% +169.58% +099.49% +159.97% +172.33% +194.07%
05/29 +118.21% +092.06% +28483.32% +613.25% +349.74% +288.55%
05/30 045.75% 039.26% 049.32% 050.99% 041.68% 041.38%
Rolling 5day ORIGINAL inflection point calculation aggregate change:
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
05/20 5 Day +0713.46 +0335.29 +1580.17 +1298.81 +2837.02 0304.23
05/21 5 Day +0753.73 +0688.40 +1492.81 +0556.08 +2792.33 +0280.07
05/22 5 Day +0397.44 0074.68 +0701.22 +0894.03 +2120.87 +0537.93
05/23 5 Day +1000.44 +0916.25 +1027.65 +0758.46 +2568.85 +1331.34
05/27 5 Day +0739.83 +1305.72 +0821.41 +0987.61 +2876.05 +1569.41
05/28 5 Day +0718.01 +1421.06 +0609.14 +0042.80 +2010.95 +1746.30
05/29 5 Day +0509.56 +1263.30 +0071.21 0091.04 +1690.57 +1664.85
05/30 5 Day +0089.19 +0486.64 0455.97 1433.66 +0595.72 +0480.66
Average change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
05/20 +218.33 +170.75 +503.66 +423.81 +380.59 +184.85
05/21 +163.81 +128.97 +249.61 +035.14 +260.00 +312.02
05/22 +173.91 071.54 +060.78 +093.03 +046.41 +340.94
05/23 +216.93 +246.13 +104.91 011.54 +124.12 +503.47
05/27 +034.79 +260.79 170.91 +068.55 +122.94 +430.69
05/28 +002.99 +219.24 192.12 249.12 163.13 +412.19
05/29 048.83 +114.98 284.32 129.42 220.35 +276.96
05/30 061.65 +112.26 231.44 465.54 305.03 011.46
Rolling 5day NEWER inflection point calculation aggregate change:
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
05/20 5 Day +0085.74 +0027.62 +0267.67 +0114.89 +0232.60 0111.38
05/21 5 Day 0009.97 0212.44 0418.54 2175.44 3613.70 7010.75
05/22 5 Day 0043.46 0201.04 0353.49 1458.23 2727.70 5224.27
05/23 5 Day +0092.85 +0025.96 0106.01 0731.54 1376.97 2758.87
05/27 5 Day +0095.77 +0168.73 +0074.23 +0021.04 +0067.72 0136.29
05/28 5 Day +0143.09 +0277.16 +0263.22 +0503.18 +1409.58 +2476.60
05/29 5 Day +0114.97 +0267.41 +0247.07 +0643.62 +1754.88 +3168.40
05/30 5 Day +0024.32 +0090.45 0016.17 0076.62 +0403.44 +0742.47
Average change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
05/20 +0022.00 +0010.17 +0041.60 0043.44 0119.39 0265.18
05/21 0017.46 0094.45 0204.49 0819.35 1378.62 2498.37
05/22 0003.48 0060.36 0111.87 0419.32 0804.48 1414.68
05/23 +0015.88 +0008.82 0060.44 0218.30 0440.80 0751.58
05/27 0001.31 +0025.60 0073.58 0079.88 0209.22 0333.00
05/28 +0011.45 +0049.97 0000.47 +0079.05 +0238.74 +0523.95
05/29 +0024.99 +0095.97 +0133.12 +0563.81 +1073.71 +2035.83
05/30 +0013.56 +0058.30 +0067.46 +0276.32 +0626.23 +1193.35
Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
============ 2014 ===============
Mon. 03/17 119.24% 54.59% 197.55% 335.39% 44.23%
Mon. 03/24 36.88% 97.94% 50.67% 44.05% 111.73%
Mon. 03/28 54.06% 89.25% 33.83% 65.59% 97.05%
Mon. 04/07 45.66% 19.84% 39.98% 23.89% 12.70%
Mon. 04/14 45.33% 40.47% 91.81% 104.74% (short week)
Mon. 04/21 26.55% 153.62% 67.25% 18.15% 13.76%
Mon. 04/28 19.56% 75.57% 10.59% 53.35% 146.92%
Mon. 05/05 06.75% 17.36% 25.05% 91.05% 26.31%
Mon. 05/12 8.83% 5.83% 55.91% 129.18% 43.96%
Mon. 05/19 114.88% 62.66% 16.13% 113.62% 202.40%
Tue. 05/27 558.01% 82.58% 62.65% 5.48%
============ 2013 ===============
Nov Avg: 28.42%, min: 05.99%, max: 050.60%
Dec Avg: 29.22%, min: 02.10%, max: 063.82%
============ 2014 ===============
Jan Avg: 54.66%, min: 09.32%, max: 130.29%
Feb Avg: 50.44%, min: 00.28%, max: 112.52%
Mar Avg: 85.68%, min: 16.78%, max: 335.39%
Apr Avg: 51.85%, min: 10.59%, max: 153.62%
May Avg: 87.09%, min: 05.48%, max: 558.01%
0530 Vol 0996618, Sht 0050916 05.11% LHC 0.1530 0.1760 0.1698 b:s 1:13.68
0529 Vol 0056002, Sht 0021300 38.03% LHC 0.1707 0.1760 0.1745 b:s 1:1.55
0528 Vol 0320588, Sht 0083803 26.14% LHC 0.1710 0.1800 0.1760 b:s 2.16:1
0527 Vol 0232101, Sht 0111601 48.08% LHC 0.1620 0.1710 0.1710 b:s 10.61:1
0523 Vol 0460894, Sht 0257650 55.90% LHC 0.1575 0.1649 0.1649 b:s 2.62:1
0522 Vol 0573849, Sht 0406600 70.85% LHC 0.1575 0.1630 0.1575 b:s 1:1.62[138]
0521 Vol 0207150, Sht 0019150 09.24% LHC 0.1560 0.1650 0.1625 b:s 1:1.34
0520 Vol 0275316, Sht 0087179 31.67% LHC 0.1604 0.1687 0.1630 b:s 1:1.02
0519 Vol 0139406, Sht 0058475 41.94% LHC 0.1650 0.1730 0.1650 b:s 1.74:1
0516 Vol 1000909, Sht 0291145 29.09% LHC 0.1600 0.1800 0.1650 b:s 1:1.90[137]
0515 Vol 0464387, Sht 0192250 41.40% LHC 0.1550 0.1823 0.1668 b:s 2.12:1
0514 Vol 1846426, Sht 0579965 31.41% LHC 0.1460 0.1891 0.1755 b:s 1:1.33
0513 Vol 0177697, Sht 0010000 05.63% LHC 0.1360 0.1479 0.1390 b:s 1:6.55[136]
0512 Vol 0408028, Sht 0040423 09.91% LHC 0.1350 0.1450 0.1400 b:s 1:5.70[135]
0509 Vol 0522796, Sht 0099219 18.98% LHC 0.1381 0.1470 0.1400 b:s 1:2.58
0508 Vol 0364523, Sht 0113993 31.27% LHC 0.1410 0.1450 0.1448 b:s 1.91:1
0507 Vol 0996741, Sht 0182201 18.28% LHC 0.1300 0.1410 0.1400 b:s 1:2.47[134]
0506 Vol 0466886, Sht 0053600 11.48% LHC 0.1302 0.1410 0.1311 b:s 1:1.95
0505 Vol 0318991, Sht 0015440 04.84% LHC 0.1302 0.1490 0.1349 b:s 1:2.65
0502 Vol 1069260, Sht 0594098 55.56% LHC 0.1250 0.1500 0.1420 b:s 1.59:1
0501 Vol 3051438, Sht 0914664 29.97% LHC 0.1270 0.1430 0.1280 b:s 1:1.25[133]
0430 Vol 0485154, Sht 0041373 08.53% LHC 0.1400 0.1454 0.1435 b:s 1:4.13
0429 Vol 0207614, Sht 0067066 32.30% LHC 0.1430 0.1550 0.1450 b:s 1.34:1
0428 Vol 0454596, Sht 0066600 14.65% LHC 0.1351 0.1498 0.1498 b:s 1:3.44
0425 Vol 0451465, Sht 0049900 11.06% LHC 0.1450 0.1499 0.1450 b:s 1:4.08
0424 Vol 0230043, Sht 0035245 15.32% LHC 0.1451 0.1520 0.1500 b:s 1:5.42
0423 Vol 0210873, Sht 0040700 19.30% LHC 0.1475 0.1510 0.1476 b:s 2.48:1
0422 Vol 0942459, Sht 0514439 54.59% LHC 0.1400 0.1510 0.1510 b:s 1.81:1
0421 Vol 0436920, Sht 0086720 19.85% LHC 0.1400 0.1500 0.1402 b:s 1:2.96
0417 Vol 0917461, Sht 0370716 40.41% LHC 0.1301 0.1480 0.1450 b:s 1.38:1
0416 Vol 1378893, Sht 0608718 44.15% LHC 0.1300 0.1550 0.1320 b:s 1.06:1
0415 Vol 1357355, Sht 0365403 26.92% LHC 0.1350 0.1640 0.1450 b:s 1:2.07
0414 Vol 0449480, Sht 0115500 25.70% LHC 0.1593 0.1720 0.1600 b:s 1:1.31
0411 Vol 0876417, Sht 0092234 10.52% LHC 0.1600 0.1829 0.1645 b:s 1:4.86
0410 Vol 0240209, Sht 0038509 16.03% LHC 0.1750 0.1900 0.1760 b:s 1:2.04
0409 Vol 1549619, Sht 0399643 25.79% LHC 0.1750 1.1839 0.1751 b:s 1:1.82
0408 Vol 1482262, Sht 0223389 15.07% LHC 0.1691 0.1850 0.1720 b:s 1:3.16
0407 Vol 1366662, Sht 0379098 27.74% LHC 0.1800 0.1940 0.1810 b:s 1:1.59
0404 Vol 2004991, Sht 0879049 43.84% LHC 0.1770 0.1970 0.1860 b:s 1.20:1 [132]
0403 Vol 2637342, Sht 0804253 30.49% LHC 0.1751 0.2000 0.1800 b:s 1.09:1
0402 Vol 1086320, Sht 0247942 22.82% LHC 0.1700 0.1800 0.1797 b:s 1:1.91[131]
0401 Vol 2487682, Sht 1004392 40.37% LHC 0.1503 0.1800 0.1789 b:s 1.21:1
[131] There were 5 premarket trades for 30K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,086,320 to 1,116,320 and would lower the short percentage from 22.82% to 22.21%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 247,942 to 277,942 and the short percentage would be 24.90%.
[132] There was 1 premarket trade for 3.5K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 2,004,991 to 2,008,491 and would lower the short percentage from 42.84% to 43.77%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 879,049 to 882,549 and the short percentage would be 43.94%
[133] There were 5 premarket trades for 32,130 shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 3,051,048 to 3,083,568 and would lower the short percentage from 29.97% to 29.66%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 914,664 to 946,794 and the short percentage would be 30.70%.
[134] There was an AH trade for 25,000 shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 996,840 to 1,021,840 and would lower the short percentage from 18.28% to 17.83%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 182,201 to 207,201 and the short percentage would be 20.28%.
[135] There was an AH trade for 130K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 408,828 to 538,028 and would lower the short percentage from 9.91% to 7.51%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 40,423 to 170,423 and the short percentage would be 31.68%.
[136] There was an AH trade for 20K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 177,607 to 197,687 and would lower the short percentage from 5.63% to 5.06%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 10,000 to 30,0004 and the short percentage would be 15.17%.
[137] There were two premarket trades totaling 10K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,000,909 to 1,010,909 and would lower the short percentage from 29.09% to 28.80%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 291,145 to 301,145 and the short percentage would be 29.79%.
[138] There was one aftermarket trade of 5K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 573,849 to 578,849 and would lower the short percentage from 70.85% to 70.24%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 406,600 to 411,600 and the short percentage would be 71.11%.
05/29/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 10, MinTrSz: 102, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol: 56002, AvTrSz: 5600
Min. Pr: 0.1707, Max Pr: 0.1760, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1750
# Buys, Shares: 5 22002, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1760
# Sells, Shares: 5 34000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1744
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.55 (39.29% "buys"), DlyShts 21300 (38.03%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 62.65%
Yesterday's test and failure of the resistance at $0.18, which held, apparently carried over to today. 10 trades, 56K traded shares for $9,801.3216. What a let down after improved volume yesterday allowed me to get somewhat silly with "We don't yet have a trend with consistent volume and behavior, but I can at last see the possibility that we might be able to break out. But we've had this $0.18 approached before, broken intraday and held, and then "leg down" to $0.155 and the 50day SMA".
VWAP improvement broke down after three consecutive days of improvement.
In my nontraditional TA area, buy percentage stopped moving in a "robust" fashion: 5/19 forward: 63.49%, 49.46%, 42.70%, 38.17%, 72.4%, 91.4%, 68.3% and 39.3% today. I guess it had to end as I've been saying I don't look for it to sustain because it's typical EOM behavior and yesterday's 10, 25, 50 and 100day averages, 57.06%, 43.68%, 43.84% and 41.89% respectively, were way below what we saw the last few days.
Yesterday my newer experimental inflection point calculations continued all periods improved for three consecutive days. Two days back I mentioned my only concerns resided in the lack of volume supporting this switch and the fact that improvements in price, or at least reduction in deterioration, is a common endofmonth behavior. Yesterday at lease we had some volume improvement and I posited "Maybe a trend will emerge".
FAIL! Not only did we have no volume today with a falling VWAP, but out trend of all periods improved came to a screeching halt with five periods weakening.
_5day_ 10day_ 25day_ _50day_ 100day_ 200day_
045.33 034.36 137.51 +0291.97 0435.19 3032.94
083.56 166.01 292.09 0202.01 1238.17 4506.95
040.21 160.96 248.51 0518.15 1521.42 5045.63
060.72 207.92 413.34 0916.84 2448.23 6947.28
036.38 190.83 454.88 1196.33 3084.48 8182.46
088.78 235.41 491.00 1166.26 3162.90 8257.22
+009.29 140.06 398.10 0933.55 2615.14 7265.81
+043.36 027.57 263.59 0756.84 2058.02 6301.70
+082.46 +068.93 152.23 0420.62 1055.40 4502.46
+078.59 +076.59 207.81 0552.71 1329.60 5014.06
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is: $0.1130 vs. $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130 and $0.1130 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1400 vs. $0.1404, $0.1327, $0.1295, $0.1271, $0.1293, $0.1309, $0.1348, $0.1333 and $0.1352 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.18%, 2.22%, 0.28%, 82.53% and 74.58% respectively. Price spread today was 5.26% vs. 5.56%, 3.49%, 5.77%, 5.17%, 4.85%, 12.50%, 17.61%, 29.52% and 8.75% on prior days.
There were only two larger trades out of today's ten trades. No breakdown seems warranted.
Ditto for the other 8 trades
No trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes seems warranted.
No trading breakdown by arbitrary price range seems warranted.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
05/13 $0.1397 +00.07% 13.2%
05/14 $0.1717 +22.93% 42.3%
05/15 $0.1690 01.59% 68.0%
05/16 $0.1666 01.41% 34.5%
05/19 $0.1685 +01.17% 63.5%
05/20 $0.1635 02.97% 49.5%
05/21 $0.1616 01.18% 42.7%
05/22 $0.1588 01.72% 38.2%
05/23 $0.1618 +01.88% 72.4%
05/27 $0.1659 +02.52% 91.4%
05/28 $0.1755 +05.79% 68.3%
05/29 $0.1750 00.28% 39.3%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
05/27: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
05/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
05/29: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
Vol in K, for above days: 232.10 320.59 56.00.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
05/28/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 41, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 90000, Vol: 320588, AvTrSz: 7819
Min. Pr: 0.1710, Max Pr: 0.1800, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1755
# Buys, Shares: 28 219103, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1762
# Sells, Shares: 13 101485, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1740
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 2.16:1 (68.34% "buys"), DlyShts 83803 (26.14%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 82.58%
The big news, for me, today is the first test expected of the resistance at $0.18 occurred today and it held. This occurred even with "strength" on increased volume and a stillrobust buy percentage of 68.3%. Note that the three $0.18 "buys", totaling 4,403 shares, were right at the open hitting the ask. Trading immediately dropped right into the $0.175x area even though the halfdozen following trades were "buys".
VWAP improvement continues for the third consecutive day. Finally, volume managed an improvement of ~38%, suggesting a little strength may be appearing in the move higher. We don't yet have a trend with consistent volume and behavior, but I can at last see the possibility that we might be able to break out. But we've had this $0.18 approached before, broken intraday and held, and then "leg down" to $0.155 and the 50day SMA.
In my nontraditional TA area, buy percentage continue moving in a "robust" fashion: 5/19 forward: 63.49%, 49.46%, 42.70%, 38.17%, 72.4%, 91.4% and 68.3% today. Being near the end of the month and beginning of the next, when we normally see some better price action, I guess this should be expected on these lowvolume days. I don't look for it to sustain though. The 10, 25, 50 and 100day averages are 57.06%, 43.68%, 43.84% and 41.89% respectively.
The day's high was set by three trades at $0.18 totaling 4,403 shares at the open. The next lower price was $0.1799 (two trades, 300 and 700 shares) and the $0.1795 which had multiple trades with some volume.
The day's $0.1710 low was set by a single 2,200 share "sell" at 13:47. The next higher price was $0.1730 with multiple trades and some volume.
Daily short sales percentage is back in step. As buy percentage dropped from yesterday's outrageous 91.4% to today's 68.3% the daily short sales percentage dropped from 48.08% to 26.14% today.
Average trade size continues migrating to the recent "normal" range: 5/19 forward: 3669, 5295, 5599, 11,577, 8380, 6631 and 7819. The 10, 25, 50 and 100day averages are 7631, 7912, 8220, 9472 respectively.
Yesterday my newer experimental inflection point calculations still had all periods improving. I mentioned my only concerns resided in the lack of volume supporting this switch and the fact that improvements in price, or at lease reduction in deterioration, is a common endofmonth behavior. Today the EOM concern is still here, but at least we had some volume improvement. Maybe a trend will emerge.
_5day_ 10day_ 25day_ _50day_ 100day_ 200day_
026.42 +021.61 036.34 +0979.11 +0529.22 1171.71
045.33 034.36 137.51 +0291.97 0435.19 3032.94
083.56 166.01 292.09 0202.01 1238.17 4506.95
040.21 160.96 248.51 0518.15 1521.42 5045.63
060.72 207.92 413.34 0916.84 2448.23 6947.28
036.38 190.83 454.88 1196.33 3084.48 8182.46
088.78 235.41 491.00 1166.26 3162.90 8257.22
+009.29 140.06 398.10 0933.55 2615.14 7265.81
+043.36 027.57 263.59 0756.84 2058.02 6301.70
+082.46 +068.93 152.23 0420.62 1055.40 4502.46
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is: $0.1130 vs. $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130 and $0.1130 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1404 vs. $0.1327, $0.1295, $0.1271, $0.1293, $0.1309, $0.1348, $0.1333, $0.1352 and $0.1374 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 5.56%, 5.26%, 5.79%, 38.12% and 24.91% respectively. Price spread today was 5.26% vs. 5.56%, 3.49%, 5.77%, 5.17%, 4.85%, 12.50%, 17.61%, 29.52% and 8.75% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on only 3 of the 41 trades, 7.32%. These 125,000 shares were 38.99% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1748. 1 of the larger trades, 33.33%, was a buy of 90,000 shares, 72.00% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1750. 2 larger trades, 66.67%, were sells of 35,000 shares, 28.00% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1741.
The other 38 trades, 92.68% of the day's trades, traded 195,588 shares, 61.01% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1760. 27 trades, 71.05%, were buys and accounted for 129,103 shares, 66.01% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1770. 11 trade, 28.95%, was a sell and accounted for 66,485 shares, 33.99% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1740.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the day's high was set by three trades at $0.18 totaling 4,403 shares at the open.
09:3009:30: 004403 shrs, 01.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1800, 100.0% buys
09:3311:29: 141385 shrs, 44.10% of vol, VWAP $0.1748, 082.8% buys
12:2612:58: 009500 shrs, 02.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1752, 000.0% buys
13:0613:31: 031600 shrs, 09.86% of vol, VWAP $0.1795, 100.0% buys
13:4113:49: 055000 shrs, 17.16% of vol, VWAP $0.1745, 005.1% buys
14:1514:36: 014900 shrs, 04.65% of vol, VWAP $0.1756, 066.4% buys
14:4715:24: 045500 shrs, 14.19% of vol, VWAP $0.1757, 076.9% buys
15:3415:55: 018300 shrs, 05.71% of vol, VWAP $0.1759, 100.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the low of the day was a single trade of 2,200 shares for $0.1710 at 13:47.
$0.1710$0.1749: 061285 shrs, 19.12% of vol, VWAP $0.1733, 019.7% buys
$0.1750$0.1799: 254900 shrs, 79.51% of vol, VWAP $0.1760, 079.5% buys
$0.1800$0.1800: 004403 shrs, 01.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1800, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
05/12 $0.1396 02.43% 14.9%
05/13 $0.1397 +00.07% 13.2%
05/14 $0.1717 +22.93% 42.3%
05/15 $0.1690 01.59% 68.0%
05/16 $0.1666 01.41% 34.5%
05/19 $0.1685 +01.17% 63.5%
05/20 $0.1635 02.97% 49.5%
05/21 $0.1616 01.18% 42.7%
05/22 $0.1588 01.72% 38.2%
05/23 $0.1618 +01.88% 72.4%
05/27 $0.1659 +02.52% 91.4%
05/28 $0.1755 +05.79% 68.3%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
05/27: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
05/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
Vol in K, for above days: 232.10 320.59.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
05/27/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 35, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol: 232101, AvTrSz: 6631
Min. Pr: 0.1620, Max Pr: 0.1710, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1659
# Buys, Shares: 33 212101, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1659
# Sells, Shares: 2 20000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1661
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 10.61:1 (91.38% "buys"), DlyShts 111601 (48.08%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 558.01%
Yesterday's behavior VWAP sort of repeated with VWAP improving 2.52% today after the 1.88% of yesterday. Again, unfortunately, volume fell 49.64% after yesterday's ~20%, continuing to suggest little strength in the move higher. This leaves me still concerned that when some volume returns we might be heading to test $0.15. But that's very uncertain with the conflicting volume vs. price action. We're still hanging around the $0.16 area, a positive sign.
The odd behavior in daily short sales percentage noted yesterday (buy percentage rose while daily short percentage fell) continued today. It's less odd today in that regardless of buy percentage behavior, a large reading in daily short sales is usually followed by a choppy subsequent downward movement. Today continued that with readings, oldest to newest, of 70.24%, 55.90% and 48.08% today.
In my nontraditional TA area, buy percentages continue moving in a "robust" fashion: 5/12 forward: 14.92%, 13.24%, 42.26%, 67.95%, 34.49%, 63.49%, 49.46%, 42.70%, 38.17%, 72.4% and 91.4% today. Being near the end of the month and beginning of the next, when we normally see some better price action, I guess this should be expected on these lowvolume days. I don't look for it to sustain though.
Average trade size continues migrating to the recent "normal" range: 5/12 forward: 10347, 8237, 9771, 7256, 10315, 3669, 5295, 5599, 11,577, 8380 and 6631.
Yesterday my newer experimental inflection point calculations, which had been suggesting weakness, made an anemic attempt at improvement. The numbers weren't large enough and the trend had not begun to establish yet, so I took no solace from the readings. Today still has all periods improving. If it doesn't worsen over the next couple days, we might have reason for some hope. My only concerns resides in the lack of volume supporting this switch and the fact that improvements in price, or at least reduction in deterioration, is a common endofmonth behavior.
_5day_ 10day_ 25day_ _50day_ 100day_ 200day_
146.46 235.54 681.02 1031.74 2680.84 6835.90
026.42 +021.61 036.34 +0979.11 +0529.22 1171.71
045.33 034.36 137.51 +0291.97 0435.19 3032.94
083.56 166.01 292.09 0202.01 1238.17 4506.95
040.21 160.96 248.51 0518.15 1521.42 5045.63
060.72 207.92 413.34 0916.84 2448.23 6947.28
036.38 190.83 454.88 1196.33 3084.48 8182.46
088.78 235.41 491.00 1166.26 3162.90 8257.22
+009.29 140.06 398.10 0933.55 2615.14 7265.81
+043.36 027.57 263.59 0756.84 2058.02 6301.70
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is: 05/27: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130 vs. $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130 and $0.1130 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1327 vs. $0.1295, $0.1271, $0.1293, $0.1309, $0.1348, $0.1333, $0.1352, $0.1374 and $0.1117 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
The day's $0.1620 low was set by a single 5K share "buy" at 11:26 surround by "buys" at $0.1650 and $0.1646. There were two $0.1625 "buys", the next high prices, of 5k. All the rest of the days trades were >= $0.1646.
The day's high was set by the last three trades, all "buys", at $0.1710. The rest of the day's trades were at $0.1698 or below.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.86%, 3.70%, 2.52%, 49.64% and 56.69% respectively. Price spread today was 5.56% vs. 3.49%, 5.77%, 5.17%, 4.85%, 12.50%, 17.61%, 29.52%, 8.75% and 7.41% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on only 4 of the 35 trades, 11.43%. These 90,000 shares were 38.78% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1663. 3 of the larger trades, 75.00%, were buys of 75,000 shares, 83.33% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1666. 1 larger trade, 25.00%, was a sell of 15,000 shares, 16.67% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1649.
The other 31 trades, 88.57% of the day's trades, traded 142,101 shares, 61.22% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1656. 30 trades, 96.77%, were buys and accounted for 137101 shares, 96.48% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1655. 1 trade, 3.23%, was a sell and accounted for 5000 shares, 3.52% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1698.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the last entry had all "buys" (three) at $0.1710, which set the high of the day.
09:3010:24: 058850 shrs, 25.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1649, 074.5% buys
10:3811:28: 034131 shrs, 14.71% of vol, VWAP $0.1646, 100.0% buys
12:2314:00: 029120 shrs, 12.55% of vol, VWAP $0.1650, 100.0% buys
15:1615:22: 059849 shrs, 25.79% of vol, VWAP $0.1646, 100.0% buys
15:4015:55: 025000 shrs, 10.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1691, 080.0% buys
15:5715:57: 025151 shrs, 10.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1710, 100.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the last entry had all "buys" (three) at $0.1710, which set the high of the day.
$0.1620$0.1649: 063950 shrs, 27.55% of vol, VWAP $0.1643, 076.5% buys
$0.1650$0.1698: 143000 shrs, 61.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1657, 096.5% buys
$0.1710$0.1710: 025151 shrs, 10.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1710, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
05/09 $0.1431 00.06% 28.0%
05/12 $0.1396 02.43% 14.9%
05/13 $0.1397 +00.07% 13.2%
05/14 $0.1717 +22.93% 42.3%
05/15 $0.1690 01.59% 68.0%
05/16 $0.1666 01.41% 34.5%
05/19 $0.1685 +01.17% 63.5%
05/20 $0.1635 02.97% 49.5%
05/21 $0.1616 01.18% 42.7%
05/22 $0.1588 01.72% 38.2%
05/23 $0.1618 +01.88% 72.4%
05/27 $0.1659 +02.52% 91.4%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
05/27: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
Vol in K, for above days: 232.10.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
05/23/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 55, MinTrSz: 25, MaxTrSz: 25764, Vol: 460894, AvTrSz: 8380
Min. Pr: 0.1575, Max Pr: 0.1649, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1618
# Buys, Shares: 44 333594, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1623
# Sells, Shares: 11 127300, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1606
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 2.62:1 (72.38% "buys"), DlyShts 257650 (55.90%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 202.40%
VWAP improved 1.88% today, unfortunately on a day that volume fell ~20%, suggesting little strength in the move higher. This means I consider my recent belief we'd start moving towards testing the $0.15 support again still to be the likely nearterm move. Since, again, one day doesn't make a trend, we'll have to continue to wait and see what develops. I still think the fact we're hanging around the $0.16 area is a positive sign. It also reinforces my assessment that we are indeed consolidating.
Yesterday's daily short percentage, the third highest I've recorded, began a return to "normalcy" today at 55.9%. It's a wee bit odd since we got a buy percentage of 72.4%, up from yesterday's 38.2%. The only odd thing about this is buy percentage rose while daily short percentage fell. Right now I'm chalking it up to "the exception that proves the rule" behavior since yesterday's short percentage was so far out in left field that it might be unreasonable to expect that longstanding and reliable directional correlation to just magically return in just a single day. I'll be watching going forward to make sure this is not a shift in behavior, as was noted when the constant "cycles" of rising and then falling short percentages in predictable channels, changed to be predominantly a sideways channel, Oct. '13 through Jan '14, for sure, and possibly through the current time, yet to be determined if that is the case.
Today's price behavior didn't do anything to make a call on "what's next" easier than yesterday. Conflicting signals  higher high and VWAP combined with lower volume  make this a period of uncertainty, especially when the conflicting oscillator behavior is added to the mix. Adding the fact that 50day SMA of $0.1581, which finally broke the trend of weak deterioration nearterm, still seems to provide support and will now rise, very minimally for three or four days, makes it even more difficult.
Until something becomes more clear, I'm just sticking with consolidation in the $0.15  $0.18 range.
In my nontraditional TA area, VWAP finally broke the trend of going lower  5/12 forward: $0.1396, $0.1397, $0.1717, $0.1690, $0.1666, $0.1685, $0.1635, 0.1616, $0.1588 and now $0.1618. But we've seen little "blips" up during this trend, so I'm not getting all excited about it yet. The buy percentages, which were "robust", and had reversed, again reversed, moving to a "robust" reading today. However, I do consider this an aberration for the moment because it's such a big swing from yesterday's more normal 38.2% and we had such an outlandish daily short sale percentage. 5/12 forward: 14.92%, 13.24%, 42.26%, 67.95%, 34.49%, 63.49%, 49.46%, 42.70%, 38.17% and 72.4%.
Regarding the daily short percentage, I believe what we see today is the beginning of normal oscillations up and down before a change of general direction occurs, which I discussed yesterday.
Average trade size returned to the recent "normal" range: 5/12 forward: 10347, 8237, 9771, 7256, 10315, 3669, 5295, 5599, 11,577 and 8380.
In total, regarding all the above, I guess I'm operating on the theory that "no good can come from all this". The recent behavior is not what I expect as leading to a sustained move up with some strength.
Today my newer experimental inflection point calculations, which have been suggesting weakness, made an anemic attempt at improvement. That's always good but the numbers just aren't large enough and the trend has not even begun to establish yet. So I'm taking no solace from today's readings. I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt by thinking we're just showing some volatility, which could be expected before some kind of (small?) move appears within our consolidation channel.
_5day_ 10day_ 25day_ _50day_ 100day_ 200day_
142.53 201.68 690.63 0938.59 2635.25 6574.36
146.46 235.54 681.02 1031.74 2680.84 6835.90
026.42 +021.61 036.34 +0979.11 +0529.22 1171.71
045.33 034.36 137.51 +0291.97 0435.19 3032.94
083.56 166.01 292.09 0202.01 1238.17 4506.95
040.21 160.96 248.51 0518.15 1521.42 5045.63
060.72 207.92 413.34 0916.84 2448.23 6947.28
036.38 190.83 454.88 1196.33 3084.48 8182.46
088.78 235.41 491.00 1166.26 3162.90 8257.22
+009.29 140.06 398.10 0933.55 2615.14 7265.81
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is: $0.1130 vs. $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130 and $0.1137 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1295 vs. $0.1271, $0.1293, $0.1309, $0.1348, $0.1333, $0.1352, $0.1374, $0.1117 and $0.1117 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
The day's $0.1575 low was set by a single 3,700 share "sell" at 10:12 surround by three "buys"  one before for 1,500 shares at $0.1599, two after of $0.1598 x 10K and then $0.1599 x 12K. All the rest of the days trades were >= $0.1600.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, 1.17%, 1.88%, 20.38% and 36.63% respectively. Price spread today was 3.49% vs. 5.77%, 5.17%, 4.85%, 12.50%, 17.61%, 29.52%, 8.75%, 7.41% and 6.44% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 14.8K, one trade, all others >= 15K) occurred on 12 of the 55 trades, 21.82%. These 265,800 shares were 57.67% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1623, about 1/2 penny higher than yesterday. 8 of the larger trades, 66.67%, were buys of 163,800 shares, 61.63% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1633. 5 of the larger trades, 41.67%, were sells of 102,000 shares, 38.37% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1607.
The other 43 trades, 78.18% of the day's trades, traded 195094 shares, 42.33% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1612. 36 trades, 83.72%, were buys and accounted for 169794 shares, 87.03% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1613. 6 trades, 13.95%, were sells and accounted for 25300 shares, 12.97% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1605.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the last entry had all but one trade of "buys" (six) at $0.1649. The one exception was a sell at $0.1605 of 25K shares.
09:3009:44: 006844 shrs, 01.48% of vol, VWAP $0.1600, 100.0% buys
10:1211:03: 074400 shrs, 16.14% of vol, VWAP $0.1598, 094.8% buys
11:1811:58: 064000 shrs, 13.89% of vol, VWAP $0.1605, 068.8% buys
12:0213:36: 036025 shrs, 07.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1611, 040.6% buys
13:4913:57: 036625 shrs, 07.95% of vol, VWAP $0.1601, 053.6% buys
14:1414:52: 117236 shrs, 25.44% of vol, VWAP $0.1623, 065.9% buys
15:1515:49: 125764 shrs, 27.29% of vol, VWAP $0.1640, 080.1% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range. The first entry includes only the four trades below $0.1600.
$0.1575$0.1599: 027200 shrs, 05.90% of vol, VWAP $0.1595, 086.4% buys
$0.1600$0.1610: 239069 shrs, 51.87% of vol, VWAP $0.1604, 054.6% buys
$0.1620$0.1630: 093861 shrs, 20.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1627, 084.0% buys
$0.1649$0.1649: 100764 shrs, 21.86% of vol, VWAP $0.1649, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
05/08 $0.1431 +05.11% 65.7%
05/09 $0.1431 00.06% 28.0%
05/12 $0.1396 02.43% 14.9%
05/13 $0.1397 +00.07% 13.2%
05/14 $0.1717 +22.93% 42.3%
05/15 $0.1690 01.59% 68.0%
05/16 $0.1666 01.41% 34.5%
05/19 $0.1685 +01.17% 63.5%
05/20 $0.1635 02.97% 49.5%
05/21 $0.1616 01.18% 42.7%
05/22 $0.1588 01.72% 38.2%
05/23 $0.1618 +01.88% 72.4%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
05/19: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
05/20: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
05/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
05/22: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
05/23: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
Vol in K, for above days: 139.41 275.32 207.15 578.85 460.89.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
05/22/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 50, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 146000, Vol: 578849, AvTrSz: 11577
Min. Pr: 0.1575, Max Pr: 0.1630, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1588
# Buys, Shares: 24 220975, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1597
# Sells, Shares: 26 357874, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1583
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.62 (38.17% "buys"), DlyShts 406600 (70.24%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 113.62%
Volume improved today, unfortunately on a day that VWAP dropped 1.72%. This fits with my suggestion yesterday that I believed we'd start moving towards testing the $0.15 support again but it should take "a few" days. Since one day doesn't make a trend, we'll have to wait and see. I think the fact we're hanging around the $0.16 area is a positive sign. It makes me think that we may find support if we do actually go test $0.15 again.
A real oddity: the daily short percentage is much higher than I would expect based on the buy percentage. The only other occurrence where I see a disparity large enough to make me wonder was on 3/29/12 when short was 50.99% and buy 28.11%. Today's short percentage was the third highest I've ever recorded:
_Date__ Short % Buy %
07/16/12 72.45% 80.27%
03/20/14 70.67% 75.60%
05/22/14 70.24% 38.17%
06/06/12 65.38% 69.55%
08/22/12 64.63% 92.81%
Today's very high short percentage might be related to the $0.1581 sell of 146,000 shares at 14:46:44. At the time there was no bid at that size for that price. There was a ~7.6K bid for that price but the "nonstandard" present size makes me think it wasn't one of those "show 5K and have tons behind it" orders. That makes me think that maybe some backoffice conversion was needed, suggesting a PIPEr had a bit left to get rid of, or an interbroker trade may have been done, or a marketmaker that knows they can cover later at a lower price saw the order we could not see and filled it by selling short.
I had noted that on the traditional TA stuff the pennant formation was broken  we had a low and close below the rising support  and if the low and close the next day were also below the rising support, which I strongly suspected would be the case, I thought we would start moving to test the $0.15 support. Today the high and close were both below that support, so the pennant is out of play.
This makes any prognostication difficult until another pattern emerges, but the door is open to moving to test $0.15.
The prior assessment that we are in consolidation seems still to be correct. Yesterday we had both a lower high and lower low with continued low volume. Today is the same but with the "low volume" being higher. The portent of a possible move lower  higher volume on a down day  from a couple days back, and now today, seems to be playing out. The VWAP down over 1% again, 1.72% today, suggests that move may be underway.
Interestingly, the 50day SMA of $0.1580, which continues rolling over with weak deterioration nearterm, still seems to be providing support as we again have the low penetrate it but the close is above it.
Wrapping up the traditional TA stuff, RSI, Williams %R, full stochastic and ADX and related all continued to weaken. Accumulation/distribution and momentum were flat. With these signals being mixed I don't think they add anything to what I've already noted.
In my nontraditional TA area VWAP continues trending lower  5/12 forward: $0.1396, $0.1397, $0.1717, $0.1690, $0.1666, $0.1685, $0.1635, 0.1616 and $0.1588. The buy percentages, which were "robust", and had reversed, continued their behavior  5/12 forward: 14.92%, 13.24%, 42.26%, 67.95%, 34.49%, 63.49%, 49.46%, 42.70% and 38.17%. Average trade size, which had been trending lower  5/12 forward: 10347, 8237, 9771, 7256, 10315, 3669, 5295 and 5599  was saved today by the 146K trade. Removing that trade puts today's average closer to the recent trend with a 8,834 reading. There was also an 84K and a 50K trade.
Two days back I noted my newer experimental inflection point calculations suggested weakness. Yesterday the 5 and 10day periods showed a small improvement but not enough to suggest any trend lower in price is abating. Today the 5 and 10day period gave up their gains and went even further negative than they were before the gains were made. All but the 50day went further negative today.
_5day_ 10day_ 25day_ _50day_ 100day_ 200day_
142.53 201.68 690.63 0938.59 2635.25 6574.36
146.46 235.54 681.02 1031.74 2680.84 6835.90
026.42 +021.61 036.34 +0979.11 +0529.22 1171.71
045.33 034.36 137.51 +0291.97 0435.19 3032.94
083.56 166.01 292.09 0202.01 1238.17 4506.95
040.21 160.96 248.51 0518.15 1521.42 5045.63
060.72 207.92 413.34 0916.84 2448.23 6947.28
036.38 190.83 454.88 1196.33 3084.48 8182.46
088.78 235.41 491.00 1166.26 3162.90 8257.22
Yesterday I touched on the daily short and buy percentages and said " ... The daily short percentage normally oscillates up and down before a change of general direction occurs. The behavior is apparent on my charts. I believe we are going to test the $0.15 level again. Might take a few days to get there". We got a dichotomy today  buy percentage dropped and daily short sales percentage spiked to the third highest I've recorded. Until I see a pattern suggesting the "normal" behavior won't occur as expected, I'll stick with my call on this.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is: $0.1130 vs. $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1137 and $0.1145 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1271 vs. $0.1293, $0.1309, $0.1348, $0.1333, $0.1352, $0.1374, $0.1117, $0.1117 and $0.1144 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
The day's high was set by the first trade, a single 2K trade at $0.1630. If we discount that trade our high would be $0.1602, which was in range of nearby prices with volume.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.96%, 1.21%, 1.72%, 179.43% and 2,023.24% respectively. Price spread today was 3.49% vs. 5.77%, 5.17%, 4.85%, 12.50%, 17.61%, 29.52%, 8.75%, 7.41% and 6.44% on prior days.
If we use the $0.1602 price as the high, high moves 2.91%, instead of 1.21%, and the spread would be 1.71%, rather than 3.49%.
The larger trade results were affected by a single 146K "sell" for $0.1581 at 14:46. There was only 7.6K shares bid at that price at that time.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 7 of the 50 trades, 14.00%. These 360,600 shares were 62.30% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1587, about 1/2 penny lower than yesterday. 5 of the larger trades, 71.43%, were buys of 130,600 shares, 36.22% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1598. 2 of the larger trades, 28.57%, were sells of 230,000 shares, 63.78% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1581.
The other 43 trades, 86.00% of the day's trades, traded 218,249 shares, 37.70% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1590. 19 trades, 44.19%, were buys and accounted for 90,375 shares, 41.41% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1595. 24 trades, 55.81%, were sells and accounted for 127,874 shares, 58.59% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1586.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the first entry was a single trade that established the day's high and the 14:39 entry includes the 146K at $0.1581 trade.
09:3909:39: 002000 shrs, 00.35% of vol, VWAP $0.1630, 100.0% buys
09:5410:22: 106900 shrs, 18.47% of vol, VWAP $0.1600, 068.8% buys
10:4311:16: 125775 shrs, 21.73% of vol, VWAP $0.1586, 025.3% buys
12:2712:58: 068474 shrs, 11.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1599, 087.8% buys
13:2213:56: 036600 shrs, 06.32% of vol, VWAP $0.1589, 056.3% buys
14:3915:08: 174600 shrs, 30.16% of vol, VWAP $0.1582, 006.3% buys
15:1915:36: 022500 shrs, 03.89% of vol, VWAP $0.1582, 048.9% buys
15:4616:00: 042000 shrs, 07.26% of vol, VWAP $0.1579, 026.2% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range. The second entry includes the 146K trade at $0.1581 and the last entry is the single trade that set the day's high.
$0.1575$0.1578: 047500 shrs, 08.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1576, 000.0% buys
$0.1581$0.1589: 285274 shrs, 49.28% of vol, VWAP $0.1582, 009.1% buys
$0.1590$0.1598: 059475 shrs, 10.27% of vol, VWAP $0.1591, 066.2% buys
$0.1600$0.1602: 184600 shrs, 31.89% of vol, VWAP $0.1600, 083.2% buys
$0.1630$0.1630: 002000 shrs, 00.35% of vol, VWAP $0.1630, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
05/07 $0.1362 +02.86% 28.8%
05/08 $0.1431 +05.11% 65.7%
05/09 $0.1431 00.06% 28.0%
05/12 $0.1396 02.43% 14.9%
05/13 $0.1397 +00.07% 13.2%
05/14 $0.1717 +22.93% 42.3%
05/15 $0.1690 01.59% 68.0%
05/16 $0.1666 01.41% 34.5%
05/19 $0.1685 +01.17% 63.5%
05/20 $0.1635 02.97% 49.5%
05/21 $0.1616 01.18% 42.7%
05/22 $0.1588 01.72% 38.2%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
05/19: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
05/20: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
05/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
05/22: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
Vol in K, for above days: 139.41 275.32 207.15 578.85.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
05/21/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 37, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol: 207150, AvTrSz: 5599
Min. Pr: 0.1560, Max Pr: 0.1650, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1616
# Buys, Shares: 18 88450, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1630
# Sells, Shares: 19 118700, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1605
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.34 (42.70% "buys"), DlyShts 19150 (09.24%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 16.13%
The low prices today all occurred at 12:03  $0.1560 x 1K & 1.7K, $0.1561 x 1.5K & 8.3K. The next higher price was $0.1571 x 1.5K at 11:01. We finally got one of some size which was near other prices with a $0.1578 x 13.3K trade at 12:04. Then we had a lot of trades and volume at $0.1600 and above. All of these trades below $0.16 were sells.
The highs had a similar behavior with the $0.1650 high having only three trades of 1K, 1.5K and 5K, all at 9:30  the first three trades of the day. All were buys. The next lower price looks like fishing lures from the marketmakers to me  three consecutive 100 share trades of $0.1649 at 11:51, 11:57 and 12:01. The next lower price of $0.1648 of 2.5K at 13:52 was near the price and just below it, which had some quantity of trades and volume.
With volume so low again today it's not worth examining stuff sans these trades, IMO. We also have to view any TA indications with caution.
The traditional TA stuff broke the pennant formation. We had a low and close below the rising support. If the low and close tomorrow are also below the rising support, which I'm strongly suspecting will be the case (see discussion of daily short sales below), I think we start moving to test the $0.15 support. As I mentioned in a comment on the concentrator, that support doesn't seem as strong as the $0.18 resistance seemed.
The assessment that we are in consolidation was supported yesterday by consistently lower highs and higher lows, although I mentioned that latter metric was becoming marginal. Today we had both a lower high and lower low with continued low volume. We may still be in consolidation since I believe that the $0.15$0.18 range would be normal for this activity. I mentioned yesterday we should be aware that we had slightly higher volume on a down day, which could portend a move lower. The VWAP down over 1% today suggests that may have begun.
The 50day SMA continues rolling over and continues weak deterioration nearterm, going from $0.1583 to $0.1581 today. As mentioned yesterday, it may be providing support as our lows have now penetrated it four of the last five days but have closed above it each day.
In my nontraditional TA area VWAP continues trending lower  5/12 forward: $0.1396, $0.1397, $0.1717, $0.1690, $0.1666, $0.1685, $0.1635 and 0.1616. The buy percentages, which were "robust", reversed today  5/12 forward: 14.92%, 13.24%, 42.26%, 67.95%, 34.49%, 63.49%, 49.46% and 42.70%. Average trade size continues trending lower  5/12 forward: 10347, 8237, 9771, 7256, 10315, 3669, 5295 and 5599.
Yesterday I my noted my newer experimental inflection point calculations suggested weakness. The 5 and 10day periods showed a small improvement today but not enough to suggest any trend lower in price is abating. Support is needed from the longer periods.
_5day_ 10day_ 25day_ _50day_ 100day_ 200day_
142.53 201.68 690.63 0938.59 2635.25 6574.36
146.46 235.54 681.02 1031.74 2680.84 6835.90
026.42 +021.61 036.34 +0979.11 +0529.22 1171.71
045.33 034.36 137.51 +0291.97 0435.19 3032.94
083.56 166.01 292.09 0202.01 1238.17 4506.95
040.21 160.96 248.51 0518.15 1521.42 5045.63
060.72 207.92 413.34 0916.84 2448.23 6947.28
036.38 190.83 454.88 1196.33 3084.48 8182.46
Normally I don't say much about the daily short sales, but with the weakening of the buy percentage today, after it had been trending stronger along with daily short sales rising, today's reversal is both notable and operating as expected. After five days with short sales percentage "high" (in this case just below 30% to as high as 41.9%) it is normal to have a move lower in this metric accompanied by a reducing price and buy percentage. The daily short percentage normally oscillates up and down before a change of general direction occurs. The behavior is apparent on my charts. I believe we are going to test the $0.15 level again. Might take a few days to get there.
I'm still hopeful we can remain in consolidation, where we'll vacillate in the $0.15$0.18 range, where we've seen support and resistance before. I'm still concerned that as time passes it might be harder to remain in consolidation unless we have at least sporadic positive events appear.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is: $0.1130 vs. $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1137, $0.1145 and $0.1152 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1293 vs. $0.1309, $0.1348, $0.1333, $0.1352, $0.1374, $0.1117, $0.1117, $0.1144 and $0.1145 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.74%, 2.19%, 1.18%, 24.76% and 78.03% respectively. Price spread today was 5.77% vs. 5.17%, 4.85%, 12.50%, 17.61%, 29.52%, 8.75%, 7.41%, 6.44% and 2.84% on prior days.
There were only two larger trades today, one a sell of 20K at $0.1636 and one a buy of 25K at $0.1640. In aggregate these accounted for 21.72% of the day's volume.
The other 35 trades, 94.59% of the day's trades, traded 162,150 shares, 78.28% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1610. 17 trades, 48.57%, were buys and accounted for 63,450 shares, 39.13% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1627. 18 trades, 51.43%, were sells and accounted for 98,700 shares, 60.87% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1599.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the first entry includes the trades that established the day's high and the 12:03 entry includes the trades that established the low of the day, discussed above.
09:3010:00: 039900 shrs, 19.26% of vol, VWAP $0.1638, 018.8% buys
10:0211:01: 037000 shrs, 17.86% of vol, VWAP $0.1608, 028.4% buys
11:1712:01: 008800 shrs, 04.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1602, 100.0% buys
12:0312:04: 025800 shrs, 12.45% of vol, VWAP $0.1570, 000.0% buys
12:2913:52: 064100 shrs, 30.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1632, 084.4% buys
14:1415:59: 031550 shrs, 15.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1607, 023.9% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1560$0.1578: 027300 shrs, 13.18% of vol, VWAP $0.1570, 000.0% buys
$0.1600$0.1611: 072000 shrs, 34.76% of vol, VWAP $0.1602, 025.0% buys
$0.1625$0.1636: 061550 shrs, 29.71% of vol, VWAP $0.1633, 039.2% buys
$0.1640$0.1650: 046300 shrs, 22.35% of vol, VWAP $0.1643, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
05/06 $0.1324 00.65% 33.9%
05/07 $0.1362 +02.86% 28.8%
05/08 $0.1431 +05.11% 65.7%
05/09 $0.1431 00.06% 28.0%
05/12 $0.1396 02.43% 14.9%
05/13 $0.1397 +00.07% 13.2%
05/14 $0.1717 +22.93% 42.3%
05/15 $0.1690 01.59% 68.0%
05/16 $0.1666 01.41% 34.5%
05/19 $0.1685 +01.17% 63.5%
05/20 $0.1635 02.97% 49.5%
05/21 $0.1616 01.18% 42.7%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
05/19: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
05/20: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
05/21: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
Vol in K, for above days: 139.41 275.32 207.15.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
05/20/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 52, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol: 275316, AvTrSz: 5295
Min. Pr: 0.1604, Max Pr: 0.1687, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1635
# Buys, Shares: 33 136179, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1649
# Sells, Shares: 19 139137, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1622
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.02 (49.46% "buys"), DlyShts 87179 (31.67%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 62.66%
With the P.O. PR and quarterly reporting stuff a few days behind us I think some TA might be useful now. But with volume so low again today, we have to any indications with caution.
The traditional TA stuff has a pennant formation underway, indicating shortterm consolidation. This assessment is supported by consistently lower highs and higher lows, although that latter metric is becoming marginal. Low volume supports this view of consolidation. However we need to be aware that we had slightly higher volume on today's down day, which could portend a move lower. It seems more likely with not even one oscillator I watch showing a positive bias and all slightly weakened today. MFI and momentum made an effort to improve yesterday but couldn't maintain the positive slope today. Our trading range is bumping against the upper Bollinger limit and I suspect a move to the midpoint will come, ~$0.1478 today. The 50day SMA, $0.1583, is rolling over and looks to continue weak deterioration nearterm. It may have been providing support as our lows penetrated it three of these last four days but the close remained above it each day.
Some of my nontraditional stuff seems to support this view. VWAP is trending lower  5/12 forward: $0.1396, $0.1397, $0.1717, $0.1690, $0.1666, $0.1685 and $0.1635. This even as buy percentages are "robust"  5/12 forward: 14.92%, 13.24%, 42.26%, 67.95%, 34.49%, 63.49% and 49.46%. Larger trades are in the tank for now. Average trade size is trending lower  5/12 forward: 10347, 8237, 9771, 7256, 10315, 3669 and 5295.
Contrary to the above, my newer experimental inflection point calculations suggest weakness.
_5day_ 10day_ 25day_ _50day_ 100day_ 200day_
142.53 201.68 690.63 0938.59 2635.25 6574.36
146.46 235.54 681.02 1031.74 2680.84 6835.90
026.42 +021.61 036.34 +0979.11 +0529.22 1171.71
045.33 034.36 137.51 +0291.97 0435.19 3032.94
083.56 166.01 292.09 0202.01 1238.17 4506.95
040.21 160.96 248.51 0518.15 1521.42 5045.63
060.72 207.92 413.34 0916.84 2448.23 6947.28
All this makes me think that if we can remain in consolidation, we'll vacillate in the $0.15$0.18 range where we've seen support and resistance before. My problem with this is that as time passes I think it might be harder to remain in consolidation unless we have at least sporadic positive events appear. Since we apparently know there is some trading of shares regardless of PIPErs presence, even some positive events might have difficulty breaking price to the upside.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is: $0.1130 vs. $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1137, $0.1145, $0.1152 and $0.1157 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1309 vs. $0.1348, $0.1333, $0.1352, $0.1374, $0.1117, $0.1117, $0.1144, $0.1145 and $0.1089 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.79%, 2.49%, 2.97%, 97.48% and 49.09% respectively. Price spread today was 5.17% vs. 4.85%, 12.50%, 17.61%, 29.52%, 8.75%, 7.41%, 6.44%, 2.84% and 8.46% on prior days.
If the single $0.1604 15K trade is excluded, the low would be $0.1611. This would cause the movement of the low to be 2.36% instead of the 2.79% we got. The spread would be 4.72% instead of 5.17%.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 5 of the 52 trades, 9.62%. These 80,700 shares were 29.31% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1623. 2 of the larger trades, 40.00%, were buys of 35,000 shares, 43.37% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1637. 3 of the larger trades, 60.00%, were sells of 45,700 shares, 56.63% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1612.
The other 47 trades, 90.38% of the day's trades, traded 194,616 shares, 70.69% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1641. 31 trades, 65.96%, were buys and accounted for 101,179 shares, 51.99% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1654. 16 trades, 34.04%, were sells and accounted for 93,437 shares, 48.01% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1627.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the 10:00 entry was a single trade that established the low of the day at 10:00.
09:3009:44: 003415 shrs, 01.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1686, 100.0% buys
10:0010:00: 015000 shrs, 05.45% of vol, VWAP $0.1604, 000.0% buys
10:0910:25: 012302 shrs, 04.47% of vol, VWAP $0.1680, 100.0% buys
10:3311:43: 052542 shrs, 19.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1651, 071.5% buys
12:5013:03: 058100 shrs, 21.10% of vol, VWAP $0.1629, 036.8% buys
14:4015:03: 058720 shrs, 21.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1631, 074.1% buys
15:3515:45: 016437 shrs, 05.97% of vol, VWAP $0.1640, 066.9% buys
15:4915:59: 058800 shrs, 21.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1627, 011.9% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the low of the day was a single trade at 10:00.
$0.1604$0.1604: 015000 shrs, 05.45% of vol, VWAP $0.1604, 000.0% buys
$0.1611$0.1621: 095257 shrs, 34.60% of vol, VWAP $0.1617, 024.7% buys
$0.1630$0.1649: 102700 shrs, 37.30% of vol, VWAP $0.1641, 049.0% buys
$0.1650$0.1669: 046642 shrs, 16.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1655, 100.0% buys
$0.1679$0.1687: 015717 shrs, 05.71% of vol, VWAP $0.1681, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
05/05 $0.1333 02.68% 27.0%
05/06 $0.1324 00.65% 33.9%
05/07 $0.1362 +02.86% 28.8%
05/08 $0.1431 +05.11% 65.7%
05/09 $0.1431 00.06% 28.0%
05/12 $0.1396 02.43% 14.9%
05/13 $0.1397 +00.07% 13.2%
05/14 $0.1717 +22.93% 42.3%
05/15 $0.1690 01.59% 68.0%
05/16 $0.1666 01.41% 34.5%
05/19 $0.1685 +01.17% 63.5%
05/20 $0.1635 02.97% 49.5%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
05/19: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
05/20: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
Vol in K, for above days: 139.41 275.32.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
05/19/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 38, MinTrSz: 6, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol: 139412.00, AvTrSz: 3669
Min. Pr: 0.1650, Max Pr: 0.1730, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1685
# Buys, Shares: 29 88512, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1692
# Sells, Shares: 9 50900, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1674
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.74:1 (63.49% "buys"), DlyShts 58475 (41.94%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 114.88%
There's really not much of interest today.
Tomorrow I'll start cautiously having confidence in any TA. The early indications, not showing signs of anything but doing a shortterm consolidation, do look to have been spoton thus far though. This is taking the form thus far of a pennant, which doesn't offer us any direction indications.
The P.O. PR and quarterly reporting did manage to pop us out of my descending trend line, which did seem to be in control prior to that. All it means for now is I'll have to wait before being able to identify another, although I do have preliminary one in which I have absolutely no faith for now.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is: $0.1130 vs. $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1137, $0.1145, $0.1152, $0.1157 and $0.1169 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1348 vs. $0.1333, $0.1352, $0.1374, $0.1117, $0.1117, $0.1144, $0.1145, $0.1089 and $0.1059 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 3.13%, 3.89%, 1.17%, 86.21% and 79.92% respectively. Price spread today was 4.85% vs. 12.50%, 17.61%, 29.52%, 8.75%, 7.41%, 6.44%, 2.84%, 8.46% and 8.29% on prior days.
With volume so low today it would be hard to pick any outliers, although cases could be made that the one 800 share trade that set the high at $0.1730 was an outlier. But then stepping down to find some other value that we might say was more representative of the high, with some volume and multiple trades, leads to two 100 share trades at $0.1729, three trades at $0.1719 totaling 3,400 shares, ... until six steps down we get to $0.1694. That seems unreasonable to me.
On the low end it's not so bad but even there we would skip three price levels, $0.1650 with two trades, $0.1671 with three trades, and $0.1672 with one trade before we hit $0.1688 with lots of trades and volume.
But an interesting effect of today's behavior is a concentration of activity in a very narrow range. 60,012 shares, 43.05% of the day's 139,412 volume, traded $0.1688 to $0.1689. Moving the high to $0.1695 move the volume and percentage to 96,912, 69.51% of the day's volume.
There were no larger trades (>= 15K) today.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the last period only includes the closing trade at $0.1650, the low of the day which also traded 4,500 shares at 12:16.
09:3009:57: 026926 shrs, 19.31% of vol, VWAP $0.1675, 025.7% buys
10:1411:03: 018937 shrs, 13.58% of vol, VWAP $0.1682, 047.2% buys
11:2212:09: 017900 shrs, 12.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1695, 019.0% buys
12:1614:29: 009806 shrs, 07.03% of vol, VWAP $0.1674, 054.1% buys
14:4814:51: 032100 shrs, 23.03% of vol, VWAP $0.1693, 100.0% buys
15:0415:29: 031843 shrs, 22.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1688, 100.0% buys
15:3715:37: 001900 shrs, 01.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1650, 000.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the $0.1650 price range includes only two trades, one at 12:16 and the last trade of the day at 15:37.
$0.1650$0.1650: 006400 shrs, 04.59% of vol, VWAP $0.1650, 000.0% buys
$0.1671$0.1672: 030000 shrs, 21.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1671, 000.0% buys
$0.1688$0.1696: 097412 shrs, 69.87% of vol, VWAP $0.1690, 086.3% buys
$0.1700$0.1730: 005600 shrs, 04.02% of vol, VWAP $0.1717, 078.6% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
05/02 $0.1369 +04.94% 60.3%
05/05 $0.1333 02.68% 27.0%
05/06 $0.1324 00.65% 33.9%
05/07 $0.1362 +02.86% 28.8%
05/08 $0.1431 +05.11% 65.7%
05/09 $0.1431 00.06% 28.0%
05/12 $0.1396 02.43% 14.9%
05/13 $0.1397 +00.07% 13.2%
05/14 $0.1717 +22.93% 42.3%
05/15 $0.1690 01.59% 68.0%
05/16 $0.1666 01.41% 34.5%
05/19 $0.1685 +01.17% 63.5%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
05/19: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
Vol in K, for above days: 139.41
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
05/16/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 98, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 1010909, AvTrSz: 10315
Min. Pr: 0.1600, Max Pr: 0.1800, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1666
# Buys, Shares: 44 348654, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1675
# Sells, Shares: 54 662255, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1661
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.90 (34.49% "buys"), DlyShts 291145 (28.80%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 43.96%
It's still too early to start having confidence in any TA, I think, but early indications since the 4 PC P.O. announcement and the quarterly release and conference call are not showing signs of anything but doing a shortterm consolidation. This after having immediately dropped back into the $0.15$0.18 range the day after the P.O. PR was released. The quarterly reporting and CC didn't cause any signs of a change from that behavior.
Keep in mind that today was the quarterly report conference call and some trading before and after was affected by expectations or assessments of the results respectively.
Prior to the call 18 trades (including two premarket trades  see below) totaling 153,700 shares traded at a VWAP of $0.1670. 9 were "buys" totaling 42,920 shares, 27.92%, traded at a VWAP of $0.1693. 9 were "sells" totaling 110,780 shares, 72.08%, traded at a VWAP of $0.1662.
From start of the call until about ten minutes after there were only 16 trades totaling 95,300 shares at a VWAP of $0.1651. 9 were "buys" totaling 39,050 shares, 40.98%, traded at a VWAP of $0.1695. 7 were "sells" totaling 56,250 shares, 59.02%, traded at a VWAP of 0.1621.
After the call ended there were 65 trades totaling 761,909 shares that traded at a VWAP of $0.1667. 27 were "buys" totaling 266,684 shares, 35.00%, traded at a VWAP of $0.1670. 38 were "sells" totaling 495,225, 65.00%, traded at a VWAP of $0.1665. This included a 100K trade at $0.1690 that was ~8.5% (~1/12th) of the day's volume. Note that it's price was substantially above the VWAPs shown and exclusion would change the results noticeably.
In aggregate, looking at the trading breakdown by arbitrary times, I think we saw some optimism prior to and through the conference call followed by a small reduction in that and a "flattish" trend overall for the rest of the day.
There were two premarket trades totaling 10K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,000,909 to 1,010,909 and would lower the short percentage from 29.09% to 28.80%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 291,145 to 301,145 and the short percentage would be 29.79%.
These two premarket trades occurred at the low of the day and were reinforced by four more at that price totaling 33.3K from 12:38 to 12:44.
The high of $0.1800 was set by two trades of 2,400 and 1,000 shares at 9:32 and 9:33, the tenth and eleventh trades of the day. The next lowerpriced trade was 5k at $0.1799. Below that was $0.1700 in three trades totaling 68,980 shares.
Wednesday, 5/14, I commented that I was surprised that we came back so quickly under the $0.18 resistance and the sustained trend lower after the high, from midday onward, suggested to me that this pop may be quite shortlived. I also suggested the provided volume breakdown might support this thought.
Yesterday that seemed a correct assessment, but approaching the conference call I suggested we shouldn't read too much into it. I'm still of that mind for another day, but I must note that we now have two consecutive lower VWAPs on rising volume.
Moreover, the buy:sell percentages, which went more towards bullish the 14th and 15th, dropped back to recent normal levels suggested by the 10, 25, 50 and 100day buy percentages of 35.62%, 38.09%, 42.95% and 39.94% respectively. Starting 5/13:
Buy__%Sell_%
13.24%86.76%
42.26%56.17%
67.95%32.05%
34.49%65.51%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is: $0.1130 vs. $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1137, $0.1145, $0.1152, $0.1157, $0.1169 and $0.1182 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1333 vs. $0.1352, $0.1374, $0.1117, $0.1117, $0.1144, $0.1145, $0.1089, $0.1059 and $0.1066 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 3.23%, 1.26%, 1.41%, 117.68% and 51.44% respectively. Price spread today was 12.50% vs. 17.61%, 29.52%, 8.75%, 7.41%, 6.44%, 2.84%, 8.46%, 8.29% and 14.44% on prior days.
Note the above was affected by the "outlier" highs of two trades at $0.1800. Skipping the single 5K trade at $0.1799 and using $0.17, which had some volume and three trades in two different timeframes, as the high would move the change in the high from the 1.26% we got to 6.75% and the spread would go from 12.50% to 6.25%, much more "normal".
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 15 of the 98 trades, 15.31%. These 533,435 shares were 52.77% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1675. 4 of the larger trades, 26.67%, were buys of 135,095 shares, 25.33% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1675. 11 of the larger trades, 73.33%, were sells of 398,340 shares, 74.67% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1675. Be aware that all this was affected by a single 100K "sell", 18.75% of larger trades volume, at $0.1690.
Interesting that $0.1675 was the VWAP for the total, the buys and the sells on the larger trades today.
The other 83 trades, 84.69% of the day's trades, traded 477,474 shares, 47.23% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1656 (down $0.004 from yesterday). 40 trades, 48.19%, were buys and accounted for 213,559 shares, 44.73% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1676. 43 trades, 51.81%, were sells and accounted for 263,915 shares, 55.27% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1640.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the first period only includes the two premarket 5K trades at $0.16. The periods beginning 10:03 and 10:39 approximately spanned the time of the Q1 '14 reporting conference call. Note that a 100K trade at $0.1690 went at 12:13, substantially above the VWAPs shown for the period beginning at 11:56, and exclusion would change the results dramatically since the trade was about 1/4th (27.04%) of the period's volume.
09:1209:12: 010000 shrs, 00.99% of vol, VWAP $0.1600, 000.0% buys
09:3009:37: 106900 shrs, 10.57% of vol, VWAP $0.1697, 040.1% buys
09:4810:02: 059800 shrs, 05.92% of vol, VWAP $0.1612, 000.0% buys
10:0310:34: 027500 shrs, 02.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1672, 045.5% buys
10:3911:17: 054150 shrs, 05.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1665, 066.3% buys
11:1811:49: 058460 shrs, 05.78% of vol, VWAP $0.1650, 017.1% buys
11:5612:28: 369805 shrs, 36.58% of vol, VWAP $0.1686, 026.6% buys
12:3112:56: 142095 shrs, 14.06% of vol, VWAP $0.1645, 061.3% buys
13:0614:01: 097000 shrs, 09.60% of vol, VWAP $0.1648, 024.7% buys
14:2415:59: 085199 shrs, 08.43% of vol, VWAP $0.1650, 044.6% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the $0.1600 price range includes the two 5K premarket trades and the $0.1800 and $0.1799 prices were "outliers" in terms of trades, volume and being near to other ranges. Note that a 100K trade at $0.1690 went at 12:13, substantially above the VWAPs shown for the price range beginning at $0.1650, and exclusion would change the results dramatically since the trade was about 1/7th (13.99%) of the period's volume.
$0.1600$0.1600: 043300 shrs, 04.28% of vol, VWAP $0.1600, 046.2% buys
$0.1611$0.1649: 175210 shrs, 17.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1623, 024.0% buys
$0.1650$0.1699: 715019 shrs, 70.73% of vol, VWAP $0.1676, 038.9% buys
$0.1700$0.1700: 068980 shrs, 06.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1700, 000.0% buys
$0.1799$0.1799: 005000 shrs, 00.49% of vol, VWAP $0.1799, 100.0% buys
$0.1800$0.1800: 003400 shrs, 00.34% of vol, VWAP $0.1800, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
05/01 $0.1305 08.36% 44.4%
05/02 $0.1369 +04.94% 60.3%
05/05 $0.1333 02.68% 27.0%
05/06 $0.1324 00.65% 33.9%
05/07 $0.1362 +02.86% 28.8%
05/08 $0.1431 +05.11% 65.7%
05/09 $0.1431 00.06% 28.0%
05/12 $0.1396 02.43% 14.9%
05/13 $0.1397 +00.07% 13.2%
05/14 $0.1717 +22.93% 42.3%
05/15 $0.1690 01.59% 68.0%
05/16 $0.1666 01.41% 34.5%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
05/12: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1421, x 80%: $0.1137
05/13: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
05/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
05/15: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
05/16: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
Vol in K, for above days: 538.03 197.70 1,846.68 464.41 1,010.91.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
05/15/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 64, MinTrSz: 21, MaxTrSz: 61500, Vol: 464408, AvTrSz: 7256
Min. Pr: 0.1550, Max Pr: 0.1823, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1690
# Buys, Shares: 40 315580, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1691
# Sells, Shares: 24 148828, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1688
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 2.12:1 (67.95% "buys"), DlyShts 192250 (41.40%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 129.18%
Yesterday I commented that I was surprised that we came back so quickly under the $0.18 resistance and "The fact that after the high we had a sustained trend lower, from midday onward, suggests to me that this pop may be quite shortlived". I also suggested volume breakdown may support this thought.
Today that seems a correct assessment, but we are coming into the conference call, so maybe we shouldn't be surprised or read too much into it.
The low was set by one 500 share trade at $0.1550 at 10:44. The four trades preceding it were for $0.1670 (three at 10:44) and $0.1690 (one at 10:38). This trade starts my TFH glowing. Overall the next higher prices were three trades for $0.1601 for 9,528 shares total.
The high of $0.1823 was set by one trade of 350 shares at 9:32, the second trade of the day. This also tickles my TFH, but it's not unusual to see early trades hit the ask, which it did in this case. The next three lowerpriced trades, totaling 4.5K were for $0.18 and $0.1810. We finally hit a little volume in the $0.1769$0.1796 range, 27,540 shares.
As can be seen from the trading breakdown by time, the trend today was down through the morning, improved during the lunch hour, then tailed down to make the lowest intraday VWAPs from ~13:20 to ~14:45, and then improved a bit. The close was $0.1668, below the WVAP for the day of $0.1690 and almost a penny below yesterday's $0.1755. No sign of bullishness.
As I mentioned though, waiting a few days after the results release is my normal M.O. and I'm not assigning much weight to any of this yet.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is: $0.1130 vs. $0.1130, $0.1130, $0.1137, $0.1145, $0.1152, $0.1157, $0.1169, $0.1182 and $0.1196 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1352 vs. $0.1374, $0.1117, $0.1117, $0.1144, $0.1145, $0.1089, $0.1059, $0.1066 and $0.1096 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 6.16%, 3.60%, 1.59%, 74.85% and 66.85% respectively. Price spread today was 17.61% vs. 29.52%, 8.75%, 7.41%, 6.44%, 2.84%, 8.46%, 8.29%, 14.44% and 20.00% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 7 of the 64 trades, 10.94%. These 200,000 shares were 43.07% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1681. 5 of the larger trades, 71.43%, were buys of 155,000 shares, 77.50% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1674. 2 of the larger trades, 28.57%, were sells of 45,000 shares, 22.50% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1706.
The other 57 trades, 89.06% of the day's trades, traded 264,408 shares, 56.93% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1696. 35 trades, 61.40%, were buys and accounted for 160,580 shares, 60.73% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1706. 22 trades, 38.60%, were sells and accounted for 103,828 shares, 39.27% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1681.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the last period includes the 20K AH trade at $0.14.
09:3009:32: 002350 shrs, 00.51% of vol, VWAP $0.1803, 100.0% buys
09:3710:06: 062151 shrs, 13.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1760, 015.0% buys
10:1510:36: 027000 shrs, 05.81% of vol, VWAP $0.1751, 088.9% buys
10:3711:06: 054279 shrs, 11.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1683, 071.3% buys
11:1212:09: 042000 shrs, 09.04% of vol, VWAP $0.1679, 100.0% buys
12:3712:55: 065000 shrs, 14.00% of vol, VWAP $0.1730, 100.0% buys
13:2113:52: 045928 shrs, 09.89% of vol, VWAP $0.1647, 021.8% buys
14:0414:44: 132000 shrs, 28.42% of vol, VWAP $0.1648, 084.8% buys
14:5115:56: 026500 shrs, 05.71% of vol, VWAP $0.1675, 018.9% buys
15:5715:59: 007200 shrs, 01.55% of vol, VWAP $0.1668, 100.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the first and last periods are one trade each that set the low and high of the day.
$0.1550$0.1550: 000800 shrs, 00.17% of vol, VWAP $0.1550, 000.0% buys
$0.1601$0.1649: 037928 shrs, 08.17% of vol, VWAP $0.1625, 026.4% buys
$0.1650$0.1699: 257400 shrs, 55.43% of vol, VWAP $0.1665, 077.3% buys
$0.1700$0.1747: 093800 shrs, 20.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1727, 090.6% buys
$0.1750$0.1796: 069630 shrs, 14.99% of vol, VWAP $0.1761, 024.2% buys
$0.1800$0.1823: 004850 shrs, 01.04% of vol, VWAP $0.1804, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
04/30 $0.1424 02.48% 19.5%
05/01 $0.1305 08.36% 44.4%
05/02 $0.1369 +04.94% 60.3%
05/05 $0.1333 02.68% 27.0%
05/06 $0.1324 00.65% 33.9%
05/07 $0.1362 +02.86% 28.8%
05/08 $0.1431 +05.11% 65.7%
05/09 $0.1431 00.06% 28.0%
05/12 $0.1396 02.43% 14.9%
05/13 $0.1397 +00.07% 13.2%
05/14 $0.1717 +22.93% 42.3%
05/15 $0.1690 01.59% 68.0%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
05/12: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1421, x 80%: $0.1137
05/13: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
05/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
05/15: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
Vol in K, for above days: 538.03 197.70 1,846.68 464.41.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
05/14/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 189, MinTrSz: 21, MaxTrSz: 300005, Vol: 1846681, AvTrSz: 9771
Min. Pr: 0.1460, Max Pr: 0.1891, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1717
# Buys, Shares: 104 780365, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1682
# Sells, Shares: 82 1037316, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1743
# Unkn, Shares: 3 29000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1736
Buy:Sell 1:1.33 (42.26% "buys"), DlyShts 579965 (31.41%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 55.91%
Today was affected by a PR announcing a followon order, apparently from Bysolar, for four Power Cubes. The resulting pop went into the $0.1890/1 range (but see below) at 11:32 and then retreated back below the former strong resistance of $0.18. Although I would suspect this to be likely, I wouldn't have been able to lay odds that it would happen on the first day. The fact that after the high we had a sustained trend lower, from midday onward, suggests to me that this pop may be quite shortlived.
Volume breakdown may support this thought. Through the high at 11:32 there were 1,013,336 shares traded with 616,198 being buys, 60.81%. From then forward, 976,707 shares traded, 96.39% of volume through 11:32, with 164,167 being buys, 16.81%. With marketmakers being very active though it is hard to say how much of this was just MMs moving the market to get covering buys done on their intraday shorts (31.4% of day's volume).
The high of $0.1891 was set by two trades totaling 8.250 shares at 11:26 and 11:30. Stepping one price lower to $0.1890 add 500 shares at $0.1890. As can be seen from the trading breakdown by time, the trend from that point on was down, giving us mad and lateday weakness. I don't think this was our usual lateday weakness though. Based on $0.18 being a past strong resistance, I think this was folks looking to exit anyway and deciding the risk/reward at this point favored getting out. This thought may be supported by the appearance at 15:43 of a 466K offer at $0.178 from ATDF. This is unusual for them. The order was never touched.
On the other side, we also saw a 319K bid at 11:41. This order was filled in a couple trades at 12:52. So someone trading through ATDF was bullish.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is: $0.1130 vs. $0.1130, $0.1137, $0.1145, $0.1152, $0.1157, $0.1169, $0.1182, $0.1196 and $0.1199 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1374 vs. $0.1117, $0.1117, $0.1144, $0.1145, $0.1089, $0.1059, $0.1066, $0.1096 and $0.1044 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 7.35%, 27.86%, 22.93%, 834.10% and 5,699.65% respectively. Price spread today was 29.52% vs. 8.75%, 7.41%, 6.44%, 2.84%, 8.46%, 8.29%, 14.44%, 20.00% and 12.60% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 28 of the 189 trades, 14.81%. These 1,048,608 shares were 56.78% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1725. 12 of the larger trades, 42.86%, were buys of 341,200 shares, 32.54% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1681. 15 of the larger trades, 53.57%, were sells of 687,408 shares, 65.55% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1745. 1 of the larger trades, 3.57%, were "unknown" of 20,000 shares, 1.91% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1805.
Keep in mind that these are skewed by a single 300K trade. Subtracting this would drop the volume about 28.61% and, since it was a sell, also affected the percentages.
The other 161 trades, 85.19% of the day's trades, traded 798,073 shares, 43.22% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1707. 92 trades, 57.14%, were buys and accounted for 439,165 shares, 55.03% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1683. 67 trades, 41.61%, were sells and accounted for 349,908 shares, 43.84% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1740. 2 trades, 1.24%, were unknowns and accounted for 9,000 shares, 1.13% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1583.
I'll wait my usual few days to try and do any deeper dives into any traditional, or nontraditional TA.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the last period includes the 20K AH trade at $0.14.
09:3009:45: 207700 shrs, 11.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1489, 053.8% buys
09:4610:00: 156123 shrs, 08.45% of vol, VWAP $0.1582, 094.9% buys
10:0510:14: 127897 shrs, 06.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1608, 093.8% buys
10:1710:31: 045625 shrs, 02.47% of vol, VWAP $0.1592, 020.3% buys
10:3310:44: 052329 shrs, 02.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1672, 047.8% buys
10:5510:56: 118200 shrs, 06.40% of vol, VWAP $0.1802, 071.5% buys
10:5711:00: 103000 shrs, 05.58% of vol, VWAP $0.1851, 089.3% buys
11:0911:30: 058600 shrs, 03.17% of vol, VWAP $0.1824, 042.8% buys
11:3212:02: 093785 shrs, 05.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1802, 000.5% buys
12:1812:53: 487221 shrs, 26.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1796, 007.2% buys
13:1013:37: 020000 shrs, 01.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1724, 000.0% buys
13:3915:14: 057000 shrs, 03.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1767, 091.4% buys
15:3015:45: 093157 shrs, 05.04% of vol, VWAP $0.1768, 031.3% buys
15:4615:59: 226044 shrs, 12.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1745, 021.1% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the first and last periods are one trade each that set the low and high of the day.
$0.1460$0.1500: 166700 shrs, 09.03% of vol, VWAP $0.1475, 052.0% buys
$0.1550$0.1599: 199123 shrs, 10.78% of vol, VWAP $0.1570, 083.7% buys
$0.1600$0.1650: 206295 shrs, 11.17% of vol, VWAP $0.1615, 070.7% buys
$0.1700$0.1750: 245856 shrs, 13.31% of vol, VWAP $0.1732, 016.8% buys
$0.1751$0.1799: 278867 shrs, 15.10% of vol, VWAP $0.1770, 059.5% buys
$0.1800$0.1849: 646590 shrs, 35.01% of vol, VWAP $0.1806, 011.1% buys
$0.1850$0.1891: 103250 shrs, 05.59% of vol, VWAP $0.1860, 099.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
04/29 $0.1460 +01.43% 57.3%
04/30 $0.1424 02.48% 19.5%
05/01 $0.1305 08.36% 44.4%
05/02 $0.1369 +04.94% 60.3%
05/05 $0.1333 02.68% 27.0%
05/06 $0.1324 00.65% 33.9%
05/07 $0.1362 +02.86% 28.8%
05/08 $0.1431 +05.11% 65.7%
05/09 $0.1431 00.06% 28.0%
05/12 $0.1396 02.43% 14.9%
05/13 $0.1397 +00.07% 13.2%
05/14 $0.1717 +22.93% 42.3%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
05/12: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1421, x 80%: $0.1137
05/13: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
05/14: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
Vol in K, for above days: 538.03 197.70 1,846.68.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
05/13/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 24, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 45000, Vol: 197697, AvTrSz: 8237
Min. Pr: 0.1360, Max Pr: 0.1479, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1397
# Buys, Shares: 7 26170, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1432
# Sells, Shares: 17 171527, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1391
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:6.55 (13.24% "buys"), DlyShts 10000 (05.06%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 5.83%
The day's low of $0.1360 was set by a single 500 share trade for $0.1360 at the open. The next highest low was one trade of 15,427 shares at $0.1370 followed by three trades at $0.1380 for an aggregate 10K. The high of $0.1479 was set by one trade for 3,170 shares at 11:01. The next lowest high was $0.1449 in three trades with an aggregate 11K volume. I only mention these because of the effects on the chart patterns. The day's low volume makes any further thoughts a waste of time IMO.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is: $0.1130 vs. $0.1137, $0.1145, $0.1152, $0.1157, $0.1169, $0.1182, $0.1196, $0.1199 and $0.1191 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1117 vs. $0.1117, $0.1144, $0.1145, $0.1089, $0.1059, $0.1066, $0.1096, $0.1044 and $0.1139 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.74%, 2.00%, 0.07%, 63.26% and 75.26% respectively. Price spread today was 8.75% vs. 7.41%, 6.44%, 2.84%, 8.46%, 8.29%, 14.44%, 20.00%, 12.60% and 3.86% on prior days. Keep in mind the comments about the low and high above.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 4 of the 24 trades, 16.67%. These 111,827 shares were 56.56% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1393. None of the larger trades were buys and 100% of the trades were sells so VWAP was the same.
The other 20 trades, 83.33% of the day's trades, traded 85,870 shares, 43.44% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1402. 7 trades, 35.00%, were buys and accounted for 26,170 shares, 30.48% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1432. 13 trades, 65.00%, were sells and accounted for 59,700 shares, 69.52% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1388.
Regarding the larger trades, there was one trade, again after the close in today's case, that was "out of band" if you will. It was for 20K at 16:00:25 at $0.14, same as yesterday. As with yesterday it was priced about midpoint of the day's range. Unlike yesterday, we did see a bid of $0.14 appear at 15:59:08 and both my check on Power Etrade Pro's "Time & Sales" and ADVFN's "Trades" screen show the bid of $0.14 at the time of the trade. It was a "sell". With today's minuscule volume, especially on the larger trades, I wouldn't use today's larger trades stuff for any decisionmaking.
With the low volume I'm still waiting to confirm that the outside reversal (bearish engulfing candlestick) is in effect. It doesn't look like it yet but with this kind of volume it would be unwise to make that assessment now.
My recently added descending resistance, at $0.1393 today, still seems to be in effect with a close below it at $0.1390. This is cutting it razorthin though. We've had highs above it four consecutive days, but again no penetration on strength. We came back down and closed below each day. Even the single $0.1479 doesn't make me think we will try and make a break up towards $0.15 resistance, but with this volume everything is possible.
The Bollinger limits continue rapidly converging with the upper limit descending very rapidly and we continue trading right around the current midpoint, down to ~$0.1417 from yesterday's ~$0.1427, down from the prior $0.1440.
The traditional oscillators I watch, which continue generally weakening, had a couple flatten today  RSI, Williams %R and momentum. As before, with low volume we can't place any faith in their ability to indicate coming action.
Moving to nontraditional stuff ...
The buy percentage continues to weaken (newest to oldest): 13.2%, 14.9%, 28.0% and 65.65%. The daily short sales percentage did what it should, moving to 5.63%. I suspect it will remain low until volume and buy percentage recover. However, past behavior suggests it could rise just because it got so low (there's reasons for it that I sometimes think I understand, but it's all guesswork).
My original inflection point calculations' oneday changes continue showing nothing but uncertainty. Today went from all weakening to three and three, improved vs. weakening. The change over five days went from all periods weaker for the second consecutive day to one improved and five weaker. The rate of change over those days changed from two improved and four weaker to three and three improved and weaker.
My newer inflection point calculations' oneday changes, which had all periods weaker two consecutive days, has moved to one improved and five weaker periods. The change over five days, which also had all periods weaker to consecutive days, now has two improved and four weaker periods. The rate of change over those days, also with all periods to weaker two consecutive days, now has a three and three split between improved and weaker. We switched from yesterday's "no uncertainty suggested now" to it's all uncertain again.
The chart patterns continue to look worse than just weaker  ominous, although still not certain yet.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the last period includes the 20K AH trade at $0.14.
09:3009:30: 000500 shrs, 00.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1360, 000.0% buys
10:0511:01: 018170 shrs, 09.19% of vol, VWAP $0.1417, 072.5% buys
11:2513:02: 106200 shrs, 53.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1395, 000.0% buys
13:0613:25: 033400 shrs, 16.89% of vol, VWAP $0.1401, 029.9% buys
13:3415:56: 019427 shrs, 09.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1380, 015.4% buys
16:0016:00: 020000 shrs, 10.12% of vol, VWAP $0.1400, 000.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the first and last periods are one trade each that set the low and high of the day.
$0.1360$0.1360: 000500 shrs, 00.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1360, 000.0% buys
$0.1370$0.1381: 040427 shrs, 20.45% of vol, VWAP $0.1377, 000.0% buys
$0.1390$0.1419: 142600 shrs, 72.13% of vol, VWAP $0.1397, 008.4% buys
$0.1449$0.1449: 011000 shrs, 05.56% of vol, VWAP $0.1449, 100.0% buys
$0.1479$0.1479: 003170 shrs, 01.60% of vol, VWAP $0.1479, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
04/28 $0.1440 02.14% 21.8%
04/29 $0.1460 +01.43% 57.3%
04/30 $0.1424 02.48% 19.5%
05/01 $0.1305 08.36% 44.4%
05/02 $0.1369 +04.94% 60.3%
05/05 $0.1333 02.68% 27.0%
05/06 $0.1324 00.65% 33.9%
05/07 $0.1362 +02.86% 28.8%
05/08 $0.1431 +05.11% 65.7%
05/09 $0.1431 00.06% 28.0%
05/12 $0.1396 02.43% 14.9%
05/13 $0.1397 +00.07% 13.2%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
05/12: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1421, x 80%: $0.1137
05/13: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1412, x 80%: $0.1130
Vol in K, for above days: 538.03 197.70.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
05/12/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 52, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 130000, Vol: 538028, AvTrSz: 10347
Min. Pr: 0.1350, Max Pr: 0.1450, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1396
# Buys, Shares: 14 80270, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1397
# Sells, Shares: 38 457758, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1395
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:5.70 (14.92% "buys"), DlyShts 40423 (07.51%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 8.83%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is: $0.1137 vs. $0.1145, $0.1152, $0.1157, $0.1169, $0.1182, $0.1196, $0.1199, $0.1191 and $0.1173 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1117 vs. $0.1144, $0.1145, $0.1089, $0.1059, $0.1066, $0.1096, $0.1044, $0.1139 and $0.1168 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.24%, 1.36%, 2.43%, 2.89% and 59.26% respectively. Price spread today was 7.41% vs. 6.44%, 2.84%, 8.46%, 8.29%, 14.44%, 20.00%, 12.60%, 3.86% and 8.39% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 14.9K for today) occurred on 7 of the 52 trades, 13.46%. These 292,900 shares were 54.44% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1403. 1 of the larger trades, 14.29%, were buys of 18,000 shares, 6.15% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1400. 6 of the larger trades, 85.71%, were sells of 274,900 shares, 93.85% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1404.
The other 45 trades, 86.54% of the day's trades, traded 245,128 shares, 45.56% of the days volume. The VWAP was 0.1387. 13 trades, 28.89%, were buys and accounted for 62,270 shares, 25.40% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1397. 32 trades, 71.11%, were sells and accounted for 182,858 shares, 74.60% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1383.
Regarding the larger trades, there was one trade, after the close in today's case, that was "out of band" if you will. It was for 130K at 16:00:39 at $0.14. It wasn't the price, but the time and size that was anomalous today. The next largest trade was 50K, only one, and there were only 7 larger trades today, including a 14.9K which I included today. This 130K trade represented 44.38% of larger trades volume and 24.16% of all trade volume today.
The day's high was set by five trades totaling ~50.4K in the first 24 minutes of trading. Two more trades of 7K shares at $0.1440 occurred at 10:04. VWAP sagged from then, bottoming out in the 12:0813:36 period, and then recovered minimally until the last five minutes when VWAP moved up to $0.1399.
Recall that 5/8's compressed spread, "spinning top" candlestick (indicating uncertainty) and such things as volume down ~64% caused me to state I thought the attempt to push up had no legs regardless of buy percentage (65.7%  very good) and price (VWAP $0.1450, +2.84%). Then on 5/9 we got a candlestick "outside reversal" down, also called a "bearish engulfing" candlestick on Bulkowski's site. He indicates it performs as expected 79% of the time, a respectable percentage, but doesn't normally result in a longlasting trend. I said "... Looking at my trend lines and such, I would suspect if the followon action is true to form we could expect to bottom around $0.125 or maybe the 200day SMA, currently reading $0.1279 and falling very slowly. Those are close enough I feel compelled to pick one, so I'll go $0.1250 figuring any support from the 200day SMA will be overshot a bit".
I can't confirm the accuracy of that yet, but it's looking possible with a buy percentage of only 14.9%, VWAP dropping 2.43% from $0.1431 to $0.1396 today, low and high down 2.24% and 1.36% respectively, volume on a down day up 2.89% and daily short sales percentage down to 7.51% (but 31.68% if the 130K AH trade were all shorts), the 10 and 25day VWAP averages in decline, the 10 and 25day average buy percentages in decline (and the 50day has started to drop now too), and both versions of my experimental inflection point calculations going more negative.
My recently added descending resistance, at $0.1407 today, seems to be in effect. Although we had highs above it three consecutive days, but no penetration on strength, we came back down and closed below each day. Even so, we could try and make a break up towards $0.15 resistance, but right now it looks unlikely.
The Bollinger limits continue rapidly converging with the upper limit descending very rapidly. We are again trading right around the current midpoint, ~$0.1427, down from yesterday's $0.1440. Being at the midpoint I think the Bollinger's offer no suggestion to any forthcoming direction of movement. The upper limit should drop below the $0.15 resistance in two or three days if we stay in this range.
The traditional oscillators I watch are generally weakening and the full stochastic joined the movement lower today. The volume increase was to small to infer any strength or weakness of the moves today.
Moving to nontraditional stuff ...
I mentioned we may have been premature in thinking ARCA warranted little additional attention. Today they continued the recent resurgence in activity and aggressiveness.
The buy percentage, which yesterday gave back the gains from the prior day's pop from 28.8% to 65.65% and ended at 28.0%, continued the trend today, dropping to 14.9%. The daily short sales percentage did what it should, moving to 7.51%.
My original inflection point calculations' oneday changes continue showing nothing but uncertainty. Today continued the trend started yesterday, going from one improved and 5 weakening to all weakening. The change over five days also continued the trend with all periods weaker for the second consecutive day. The rate of change over those days changed from all weaker to two improved and four weaker. In aggregate, I think the calculations are suggesting weakening coming now  the uncertainty seems reduced.
My newer inflection point calculations' oneday changes, which yesterday had all periods weaker, was the same today. The change over five days, which yesterday was also all periods weaker, continued in that vein again today. The rate of change over those days is the same, all periods to weaker again. There is no uncertainty suggested now. The chart patterns are beginning to look worse than just weaker  ominous is starting to form, although not certain yet.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the last period includes the 130K trade at $0.14. It skewed the VWAP a wee bit  VWAP was $0.1395 without it. It had more effect on the buy percentage, which was 47.62% excluding that trade.
09:3309:53: 050423 shrs, 09.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1450, 009.9% buys
10:0410:26: 057535 shrs, 10.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1403, 000.0% buys
10:3311:07: 018200 shrs, 03.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1374, 072.5% buys
11:2111:45: 104000 shrs, 19.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1400, 037.5% buys
12:0813:36: 049170 shrs, 09.14% of vol, VWAP $0.1365, 006.2% buys
15:0715:36: 024900 shrs, 04.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1370, 000.0% buys
15:3715:55: 061800 shrs, 11.49% of vol, VWAP $0.1370, 000.0% buys
15:5616:00: 172000 shrs, 31.97% of vol, VWAP $0.1399, 011.6% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1381$0.1390: 063935 shrs, 12.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1388, 026.9% buys
$0.1400$0.1410: 114884 shrs, 21.97% of vol, VWAP $0.1402, 016.1% buys
$0.1420$0.1429: 068120 shrs, 13.03% of vol, VWAP $0.1425, 036.7% buys
$0.1440$0.1455: 225453 shrs, 43.12% of vol, VWAP $0.1450, 015.5% buys
$0.1469$0.1470: 050500 shrs, 09.66% of vol, VWAP $0.1469, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
04/25 $0.1471 01.75% 19.7%
04/28 $0.1440 02.14% 21.8%
04/29 $0.1460 +01.43% 57.3%
04/30 $0.1424 02.48% 19.5%
05/01 $0.1305 08.36% 44.4%
05/02 $0.1369 +04.94% 60.3%
05/05 $0.1333 02.68% 27.0%
05/06 $0.1324 00.65% 33.9%
05/07 $0.1362 +02.86% 28.8%
05/08 $0.1431 +05.11% 65.7%
05/09 $0.1431 00.06% 28.0%
05/12 $0.1396 02.43% 14.9%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
05/12: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1421, x 80%: $0.1137
Vol in K, for above days: 538.03.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
05/09/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 63, MinTrSz: 1, MaxTrSz: 33197, Vol: 522892, AvTrSz: 8300
Min. Pr: 0.1381, Max Pr: 0.1470, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1431
# Buys, Shares: 16 146198, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1440
# Sells, Shares: 47 376694, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1427
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.58 (27.96% "buys"), DlyShts 0099219 (18.98%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 26.31%
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is: $0.1145 vs. $0.1152, $0.1157, $0.1169, $0.1182, $0.1196, $0.1199, $0.1191, $0.1173 and $0.1153 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1144 vs. $0.1145, $0.1089, $0.1059, $0.1066, $0.1096, $0.1044, $0.1139, $0.1168 and $0.1152 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.06%, 1.38%, 0.06%, 43.45% and 12.96% respectively. Price spread today was 6.44% vs. 2.84%, 8.46%, 8.29%, 14.44%, 20.00%, 12.60%, 3.86%, 8.39% and 10.88% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 11 of the 63 trades, 17.46%. These 253,444 shares were 48.47% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1440. 3 of the larger trades, 27.27%, were buys of 76,500 shares, 30.18% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1464. 8 of the larger trades, 72.73%, were sells of 176,944 shares, 69.82% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1430.
The other 52 trades, 82.54% of the day's trades, traded 269,448 shares, 51.53% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1422. 13 trades, 25.00%, were buys and accounted for 69,698 shares, 25.87% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1414. 39 trades, 75.00%, were sells and accounted for 199,750 shares, 74.13% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1424.
There was one anomalous trade at the close which made the day look worse than it actually was from a traditional TA chart perspective. At 15:58:36, a 15K "sell" at $0.14 went off. There was no bid or ask at that price shown by either the ETrade Pro "Time & Sales" or the ADVFN "Trades" screen. Trading prior to that trade had lots of trades and plenty of volume in the $0.145x area. The bid and ask at the time of the anomalous trade was $0.145 and $0.1469. If the size was smaller I would suspect somebody that wanted the price to drop next week (as if it needed any help?) was "painting the tape". But to do so with that size of an order ($2100.00) when a much smaller size would accomplish the same seems unreasonable. I'm thinking this likely was an inhouse order an MM (ATDF was best on both sides at the time and for much of the rest of the day as well) was working on during the day and this was just the completion of that order.
There was suggestion that it was an outofsequence or delayed reporting. This was not the case as FINRA rules require flagging of outofsequence reporting and any trade not reported within 10 seconds of execution. ADVFN flags both of these conditions and no flags were present.
Without this trade our close would've been $0.1450 if no other trades occurred. That would put the close essentially at the resistance described next and flat to yesterday's (suspect) $0.1448 300 share closing trade.
Yesterday's compressed spread, open and close that resulted in a "spinning top" candlestick (indicating uncertainty), combined with volume down ~64% caused me to state I thought the attempt to push up had no legs regardless of buy percentage (65.7%  very good) and price (VWAP $0.1450, +2.84%).
Before going further, I think we should consider the effects of that anomalous trade on all this. With a $0.14 close, we'd be down 3.31% on the close. If we had what I would expect without that one trade, a close of $0.1450 (right at yesterday's high), we'd be +0.14% on the close. Since the open was $0.144 we'd have another "spinning top" candlestick  just uncertainty  and a lower low, higher high and higher close  more uncertainty.
As if this wasn't enough complication, we have to consider that yesterday's "good" close was a single 300 share trade at $0.1448. Without that our close would've been $0.1420. So with no adjustment to today's close, we'd be down 1.41% today but with adjustment of today's close to $0.1450 we'd be up 2.11% at the close relative to $0.1420.
However, mix in with all this that we had higher volume (+43.45%) on either a down day (using the $0.14 close) or an up day ($0.145 close) and we get a different picture. Folks just doing traditional TA would see this as a bearish move portending lower prices. The traditional stuff is just too easily manipulated.
Me? I'm in the "uncertain" camp regarding this stuff. I will be guided by other stuff.
Returning to the main thread, today we got a candlestick "outside reversal" down. It's also called a "bearish engulfing" candlestick on Bulkowski's site. He indicates it performs as expected 79% of the time, a respectable percentage, but doesn't normally result in a longlasting trend.
For us that's good. Looking at my trend lines and such, I would suspect if the followon action is true to form we could expect to bottom around $0.125 or maybe the 200day SMA, currently reading $0.1279 and falling very slowly. Those are close enough I feel compelled to pick one, so I'll go $0.1250 figuring any support from the 200day SMA will be overshot a bit.
There's a small(?) possibility that we might just "revert to the mean", although with the narrow range that seems a ludicrous thought. That would suggest ~$0.137. Maybe not so ludicrous since we got $0.1381 already today. But I would think a $0.135 more likely to offer support than would an odd number like $0.137. Regardless I'm not seriously looking for either to be a support point.
My recently added descending resistance at $0.145 yesterday seems to be in effect for now. Yesterday's intraday high of one 10K trade at $0.145 touched the line at 13:23 and trading range then moved down (see yesterday's trading breakdown by time). Today the resistance, descending at ~1%/day, seems to be at $0.1435. Intraday trading penetrated above it on trades ranging from $0.1450  $0.1470, sporadically from 10:39  15:58. Trades at $0.1470 and $0.1469, the only three trades higher than $0.1455, occurred from 9:53 to 10:39. Thereafter trading dropped back to the $0.1426 and lower range, going as low as $0.1381, before recovering to the $0.145x range from 14:00 to the close, spoiled only by that anomalous trade. We need to see two days with a close above to confirm that we broke above it and might move up. Otherwise a continued sideways trading, with a leg down to the potential support at ~$0.125 could be in the cards.
The Bollinger limits continue rapidly converging with the upper limit descending very rapidly. We are trading right around the current midpoint, $0.1440, down from yesterday's $0.1452. Being at the midpoint I think the Bollinger's offer no suggestion to any forthcoming direction of movement.
The traditional oscillators I watch are generally weakening with only the full stochastic showing any signs of improvement. Add in the volume increasing as the oscillators generally weaken and I see no strength yet in any suggestion of up.
Moving to nontraditional stuff ...
We may have been premature in thinking ARCA warranted little additional attention. Today, and the last few days, they have been quite active and moderately aggressive. The only real change I can see right now is they will be more patient, letting price rise some, before they get bust and start to vie for top of the heap on the sell side. They also tend to back off some for a while, again letting price rise a bit, and then move to the lowest offer.
The buy percentage today gave back the gains from yesterday's pop from 28.8% to 65.65%, ending at 28.0% today. The daily short sales percentage did what it should, moving to 18.98% from 31.27% yesterday.
My original inflection point calculations' oneday changes continue showing nothing but uncertainty. Today switched from all six periods improved by a very small degree to only one improved and 5 weakening. The change over five days, which yesterday also improved in all periods, went to all periods weaker with a couple having some "largish" changes. The rate of change over those days went to all weaker from yesterday's improved in five periods and weaker in one.
My newer inflection point calculations' oneday changes, which yesterday had all six periods improved, flipped to all periods weaker today. The change over five days, which yesterday was also improved in all periods, also flipped to all weaker today. The rate of change over those days is the same, flipping from improved in all periods to weaker in all.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:4610:19: 045000 shrs, 08.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1463, 077.8% buys
10:2910:39: 036800 shrs, 07.04% of vol, VWAP $0.1447, 055.7% buys
11:2112:57: 054820 shrs, 10.48% of vol, VWAP $0.1414, 000.0% buys
13:2013:20: 053385 shrs, 10.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1401, 000.0% buys
13:2113:26: 063935 shrs, 12.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1388, 026.9% buys
13:3014:03: 024398 shrs, 04.67% of vol, VWAP $0.1407, 100.0% buys
14:0414:23: 089845 shrs, 17.18% of vol, VWAP $0.1445, 021.3% buys
14:4315:57: 136709 shrs, 26.14% of vol, VWAP $0.1451, 021.9% buys
15:5815:58: 018000 shrs, 03.44% of vol, VWAP $0.1408, 000.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1381$0.1390: 063935 shrs, 12.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1388, 026.9% buys
$0.1400$0.1410: 114884 shrs, 21.97% of vol, VWAP $0.1402, 016.1% buys
$0.1420$0.1429: 068120 shrs, 13.03% of vol, VWAP $0.1425, 036.7% buys
$0.1440$0.1455: 225453 shrs, 43.12% of vol, VWAP $0.1450, 015.5% buys
$0.1469$0.1470: 050500 shrs, 09.66% of vol, VWAP $0.1469, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
04/24 $0.1497 +00.15% 15.6%
04/25 $0.1471 01.75% 19.7%
04/28 $0.1440 02.14% 21.8%
04/29 $0.1460 +01.43% 57.3%
04/30 $0.1424 02.48% 19.5%
05/01 $0.1305 08.36% 44.4%
05/02 $0.1369 +04.94% 60.3%
05/05 $0.1333 02.68% 27.0%
05/06 $0.1324 00.65% 33.9%
05/07 $0.1362 +02.86% 28.8%
05/08 $0.1431 +05.11% 65.7%
05/09 $0.1431 00.06% 28.0%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
05/05: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1478, x 80%: $0.1182
05/06: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1461, x 80%: $0.1169
05/07: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1447, x 80%: $0.1157
05/08: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1440, x 80%: $0.1152
05/09: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1431, x 80%: $0.1145
Vol in K, for above days: 318.99 466.89 1021.84 364.52 522.89.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
05/08/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 48, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 43000, Vol: 364523, AvTrSz: 7594
Min. Pr: 0.1410, Max Pr: 0.1450, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1431
# Buys, Shares: 29 239318, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1437
# Sells, Shares: 19 125205, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1422
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.91:1 (65.65% "buys"), DlyShts 113993 (31.27%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 91.05%
Mostly just the usual: a 300 share trade hit the ask of $0.1448 at 15:57 to close the day very near the $0.1450 intraday high; on the bid at $0.13 was 156K from ARCA, joined by 160K from BNCH; ARCA was on the ask and reasonably quiet for a long time and then got active and aggressive, starting around 13:30; ATDF did all its usual and also had a 43K offer they worked all day, $0.1443$0.1444 mostly, and also had some other non10K offers they worked off and on; NITE was moderately aggressive on the offer, including a 50K $0.148 they used to step ahead of ARCA before ARCA got "busy" (which caused ARCA to then get "busy", going from sitting on $0.149 to offer $0.144 and lower).
The buy percentage today rebounded from yesterday's drop to 28.8% and the prior 33.9% to 65.65% today. The daily short sales percentage did what it should, coming in at 36.02%.
On the traditional TA front, because of the ongoing suspicious activity at the close and other things I've mentioned, I only want to mention a few things. The first is my recently added descending resistance at $0.145 today. Our intraday high was one 10K trade at $0.145 at 13:23. It was in range of the next lowest price with multiple trades and some volume, $0.1448 of ~29K in five trades (one of which was the 300 share at the close, which is suspicious to me), so nothing suspicious about $0.145.
A compressed spread and open and close that resulted in a "spinning top" candlestick (indicating uncertainty), combined with volume down ~64% makes me think this attempt to push up today has no legs regardless of buy percentage and price. We remain in a predominately sideways trading pattern that seems constrained, for the moment anyway, by the 200day SMA and my recently added descending resistance. That's starting to look "stout" as I have a confirmed origin, three touches, and one near touch.
Of the traditional oscillators I watch, only Williams %R, MFI and stochastic are suggesting upward movement on the horizon. %R is well above neutral and the other two are barely above neutral. The rest are basically flat. Adding in the volume reducing again I see no strength yet in any suggestion of up.
The Bollinger limits are now rapidly converging with the upper limit descending very rapidly. The midpoint is currently $0.1452, but it will be descending.
Without that 300 share $0.1448 trade at 15:57, the close, we would have closed lower at $0.1420 than the open of $0.1443, but still above yesterday's (not suspicious) $0.14.
My original inflection point calculations' oneday changes have all six period improved by a very small degree. The change over five days is also improved in all periods. The rate of change over those days is improved in five periods and weaker in one.
My newer inflection point calculations' oneday changes also have all six period improved. The change over five days is also improved in all periods. The rate of change over those days is improved in all periods.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is: $0.1152 vs. $0.1157, $0.1169, $0.1182, $0.1196, $0.1199, $0.1191, $0.1173, $0.1153 and $0.1135 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1145 vs. $0.1089, $0.1059, $0.1066, $0.1096, $0.1044, $0.1139, $0.1168, $0.1152 and $0.1177 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 8.46%, 2.84%, 5.11%, 64.33% and 37.47% respectively. Price spread today was 2.84% vs. 8.46%, 8.29%, 14.44%, 20.00%, 12.60%, 3.86%, 8.39%, 10.88% and 3.38% on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 7 of the 48 trades, 14.58%. These 172,350 shares were 47.28% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1435. 5 of the larger trades, 71.43%, were buys of 133,000 shares, 77.17% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1436. 2 of the larger trades, 28.57%, were sells of 39,350 shares, 22.83% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1429.
The other 41 trades, 85.42% of the day's trades, traded 192,173 shares, 52.72% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1429. 24 trades, 58.54%, were buys and accounted for 106,318 shares, 55.32% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1437. 17 trades, 41.46%, were sells and accounted for 85,855 shares, 44.68% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1418.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3909:49: 028400 shrs, 07.79% of vol, VWAP $0.1443, 098.2% buys
10:2310:57: 018625 shrs, 05.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1420, 000.5% buys
11:0511:30: 041703 shrs, 11.44% of vol, VWAP $0.1414, 011.1% buys
11:3412:07: 030500 shrs, 08.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1413, 032.8% buys
12:4513:22: 045720 shrs, 12.54% of vol, VWAP $0.1418, 065.6% buys
13:2213:47: 162275 shrs, 44.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1444, 079.7% buys
15:0015:56: 037000 shrs, 10.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1427, 100.0% buys
15:5715:57: 000300 shrs, 00.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1448, 100.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1410$0.1419: 100880 shrs, 27.67% of vol, VWAP $0.1414, 029.7% buys
$0.1420$0.1430: 077068 shrs, 21.14% of vol, VWAP $0.1424, 067.0% buys
$0.1440$0.1448: 176575 shrs, 48.44% of vol, VWAP $0.1444, 083.6% buys
$0.1450$0.1450: 010000 shrs, 02.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1450, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
04/22 $0.1475 +02.74% 64.5%
04/23 $0.1495 +01.38% 71.3%
04/24 $0.1497 +00.15% 15.6%
04/25 $0.1471 01.75% 19.7%
04/28 $0.1440 02.14% 21.8%
04/29 $0.1460 +01.43% 57.3%
04/30 $0.1424 02.48% 19.5%
05/01 $0.1305 08.36% 44.4%
05/02 $0.1369 +04.94% 60.3%
05/05 $0.1333 02.68% 27.0%
05/06 $0.1324 00.65% 33.9%
05/07 $0.1362 +02.86% 28.8%
05/08 $0.1431 +05.11% 65.7%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
05/05: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1478, x 80%: $0.1182
05/06: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1461, x 80%: $0.1169
05/07: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1447, x 80%: $0.1157
05/08: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1440, x 80%: $0.1152
Vol in K, for above days: 318.99 466.89 1021.84 364.52.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
05/07/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 94, MinTrSz: 99, MaxTrSz: 193000, Vol: 1021840, AvTrSz: 10871
Min. Pr: 0.1300, Max Pr: 0.1410, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1362
# Buys, Shares: 34 294437, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1373
# Sells, Shares: 60 727403, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1357
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.47 (28.81% "buys"), DlyShts 182201 (17.83%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 25.05%
Some very odd trading occurred today. At 15:09 it appeared someone, based at PUMA (thanks Josh!) jacked the bid up from $0.139 to $0.1399, where they stopped because the offer was $0.14, in 9 1/100th increments in one minute. Midway through three trades went at $0.1396, 7 and 8 for 10K, 9.9K and 5K. Then a "buy" of 62K (our third largest trade of the day) went off at $0.14. The effect was that we didn't trade below $0.1380 for the rest of the day, a "sell" of 193K shares @ $0.14 was done and we closed at $0.14.
Nice job! Whomever wanted to dump >= 193K at $0.14 or so got it done. Or maybe someone wants to sell the next day and wants it to look like a god day with a higher close.
How radical was this? Was there really a TFH activity? I don't know. But consider ...
Ignoring the natural skew of buy:sell during the early trading, we had a buy percentage nadir of 11.39% at 11:11 with a VWAP of $0.1312, 1/100th above yesterday's close.
The apex came at 15:12, just after the pushing the bid occurred, with a 34.41% buy reading and VWAP improved to $0.1345. From 15:09 on, including the AH trade (another unusual occurrence) the VWAP was $0.1400.
Just how cool is that?
ARCA again had a 200K @ $0.13 bid, entered premarket, today. At 11:03 ATDF added some juice with a 156K bid at $0.13.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is: $0.1157 vs. $0.1169, $0.1182, $0.1196, $0.1199, $0.1191, $0.1173, $0.1153, $0.1135 and $0.1114 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1089 vs. $0.1059, $0.1066, $0.1096, $0.1044, $0.1139, $0.1168, $0.1152, $0.1177 and $0.1198 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.15%, 0.00%, 2.86%, 118.86% and 239.93% respectively. Price spread today was 8.46% vs. 8.29%, 14.44%, 20.00%, 12.60%, 3.86%, 8.39%, 10.88%, 3.38% and 4.76% on prior days.
The buy percentage today retreated slightly from yesterday's 33.9% to 28.8%, essentially the same as Monday's 27.0%. The daily short moved from 11.48% to 17.83%. If the buy percentage change had been larger, the daily short percentage going opposite to expectations would be concerning, but as it is I think it's just "noise". Nothing to make me think my expected correlation is broken.
Considering the volume, we had few larger trades (>= 15K) today. I don't know whether to worry about this or not. In the following, keep in mind we had a single 193K trade at $0.14, a sell, that skewed the results substantially. Throw in two sells at 80K ($0.13) and 50K ($0.13) and a buy of 62K ($0.1400), with the rest 25K or smaller, and you can see four of the 10 trades had an exaggerated effect on what the numbers might suggest. They totaled 385,000 shares, 76.30% of the larger trades volume, at a VWAP of $0.1366.
Regardless, they occurred on 10 of the 94 trades, 10.64%. These 504,600 shares were 49.38% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1367. 3 of the larger trades, 30.00%, were buys of 96,600 shares, 19.14% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1379. 7 of the larger trades, 70.00%, were sells of 408,000 shares, 80.86% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1365.
The other 84 trades, 89.36% of the day's trades, traded 517,240 shares, 50.62% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1356. 31 trades, 36.90%, were buys and accounted for 197,837 shares, 38.25% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1370. 53 trades, 63.10%, were sells and accounted for 319,403 shares, 61.75% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1348.
With my TFH thoughts carrying a lot of weight with me today and the"weight" of those larger trades strongly affecting the metrics, I'm going to do no further analysis or commentary. Everything is just to suspect to have any confidence in what anything suggests. Just data from here forward today.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the 9:5610:01 period included our "outlier trades" with the highest prices of the day. The 15:09 period includes the 193K "sell" and 62K "buy". The 11:03 period includes the 80K "sell".
09:3010:07: 033700 shrs, 03.30% of vol, VWAP $0.1356, 070.3% buys
10:3111:02: 066530 shrs, 06.51% of vol, VWAP $0.1318, 016.2% buys
11:0311:18: 211402 shrs, 20.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1303, 004.3% buys
11:2211:45: 070648 shrs, 06.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1326, 091.4% buys
11:5912:07: 073523 shrs, 07.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1352, 023.1% buys
12:1813:18: 017247 shrs, 01.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1369, 007.2% buys
14:0714:33: 061699 shrs, 06.04% of vol, VWAP $0.1373, 024.5% buys
14:4314:48: 049900 shrs, 04.88% of vol, VWAP $0.1390, 000.0% buys
15:0915:16: 357001 shrs, 34.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1399, 029.4% buys
15:2116:00: 080190 shrs, 07.85% of vol, VWAP $0.1404, 060.1% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range. Keep in mind the last two periods are the "outlier" trades. 130K of the larger trades fall in the $0.1300 price range and 255K fall into the $0.1390 price range.
$0.1300$0.1327: 325172 shrs, 31.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1308, 020.6% buys
$0.1340$0.1349: 026108 shrs, 02.55% of vol, VWAP $0.1343, 076.6% buys
$0.1350$0.1360: 115523 shrs, 11.31% of vol, VWAP $0.1354, 032.9% buys
$0.1370$0.1380: 086600 shrs, 08.47% of vol, VWAP $0.1375, 017.3% buys
$0.1390$0.1406: 430247 shrs, 42.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1399, 027.0% buys
$0.1410$0.1410: 038190 shrs, 03.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1410, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
04/21 $0.1435 +04.29% 25.2%
04/22 $0.1475 +02.74% 64.5%
04/23 $0.1495 +01.38% 71.3%
04/24 $0.1497 +00.15% 15.6%
04/25 $0.1471 01.75% 19.7%
04/28 $0.1440 02.14% 21.8%
04/29 $0.1460 +01.43% 57.3%
04/30 $0.1424 02.48% 19.5%
05/01 $0.1305 08.36% 44.4%
05/02 $0.1369 +04.94% 60.3%
05/05 $0.1333 02.68% 27.0%
05/06 $0.1324 00.65% 33.9%
05/07 $0.1362 +02.86% 28.8%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
05/05: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1478, x 80%: $0.1182
05/06: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1461, x 80%: $0.1169
05/07: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1447, x 80%: $0.1157
Vol in K, for above days: 318.99 466.89 1021.84.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
05/06/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 67, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol: 466886, AvTrSz: 6968
Min. Pr: 0.1302, Max Pr: 0.1410, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1324
# Buys, Shares: 29 158147, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1342
# Sells, Shares: 38 308739, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1315
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.95 (33.87% "buys"), DlyShts 53600 (11.48%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 17.36%
Yesterday I noted the reverse split filing effects seemed to be abating and wondered if some faith could be placed in the traditional TA and my nontraditional stuff in light of the againlow volume. I'm gaining confidence as things seemed to go the way the traditional TA and my nontraditional stuff suggested: "My feeling is continued sideways at best and weakness most likely. The repeated attempts to move to, and past $0.15, over the last few days keep failing even with obvious ... "outliers" in play". See the percentage changes below.
Keeping fingers crossed that this stuff remains reliable.
Only ARCA had a 200K @ $0.13 bid, entered premarket, today. With NITE not showing that bid today I guess yesterday's 200K bid was not a real attempt to acquire.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is: $0.1169 vs $0.1182, $0.1196, $0.1199, $0.1191, $0.1173, $0.1153, $0.1135, $0.1114 and $0.1093 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1059 vs. $0.1066, $0.1096, $0.1044, $0.1139, $0.1168, $0.1152, $0.1177, $0.1198 and $0.1196 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, 5.37%, 0.65%, 46.36% and 247.15% respectively. Price spread today was 8.29% vs. 14.44%, 20.00%, 12.60%, 3.86%, 8.39%, 10.88%, 3.38%, 4.76% and 2.37% on prior days.
We had two outlier trades of $0.1410 at 9:58 for 5K and 10K respectively. Nothing suspicious about them, but the next higher price with ... well, those were outliers too, $0.1375 3.5K and 647 shares respectively at 10:01. To get a price near some number of trades with volume, we move to the next lower, $0.1351 (one 10K trade), close to $0.1350 which had volume. These affect our high and spread, and the effect without them is discussed below.
Looking at today's moves using $0.1351 as the high, our high change would be 9.33% (but yesterday also had some oddballs on the high) instead of the reported 5.37%. The spread would narrow from 8.29% to 3.76%.
The buy percentage today rose to 33.9% from yesterday's 27.0% and the daily short percentage did likewise, moving from 4.84% to 11.48%, just as it should. Odd that the magnitude of the percentage changes are so similar today.
We got a few larger trades (>= 15K) today, a mildly hopeful sign. They occurred on 9 of the 67 trades, 13.43%. These 181,035 shares were 38.77% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1322 (~1/2 penny down). 2 of the larger trades, 22.22%, were buys of 43,600 shares, 24.08% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1339. 7 of the larger trades, 77.78%, were sells of 137,435 shares, 75.92% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1316.
The other 58 trades, 86.57% of the day's trades, traded 285,851 shares, 61.23% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1325. 27 trades, 46.55%, were buys and accounted for 114,547 shares, 40.07% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1343. 31 trades, 53.45%, were sells and accounted for 171,304 shares, 59.93% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1313.
With a generally down day with volume up, traditional TA negates yesterday's suggestion the end of a move down might be nearing. But keep in mind I listed a lot of negatives that said this was unlikely and it appeared that was correct.
No really hopeful indications today. We have ...
 A "gravestone doji", a bearish sign.
 A lower high and close on increased volume.
 Full stochastic continuing to fall.
 ADX and related continued descending.
 Williams %R about to go oversold.
 Momentum weakened to 0.9041 from 1.022  moved from above neutral to below.
 My original inflection point calculations' one day changes, switched from three improved, two weaker and one flat period to two each improved, weaker and essentially flat today. The aggregate fiveday changes went from two improved and four weaker to one improved and five weaker. The average change over those days remained at one improved and five weaker for the second consecutive day.
 The newer version's oneday changes switched from all six periods weaker today to four improved and two weaker. Change over five days switched from five improved and one weaker to one improved and five weaker. The average change over those five days made a third consecutive day of all improved.
 The newer inflection point calculations' chart pattern, which had one day of moving less negative followed by a day going more negative, moved again to going less negative today. Still can't determine a tend  just uncertainty is shown.
 The upper Bollinger limit, which continued to accelerate lower yesterday, dropped below $0.18, as predicted.
The RSI weakened again today, down to 40.5 from ~42, below neutral.
 The Bollinger's lower limit, which seemed to have stopped descending and looked to be flattening at $0.1218, dropped some more to $0.1214.
 Momentum fell to 0.9041 from prior readings of 1.022 and 0.9793 before that.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the 9:5610:01 period included our "outlier trades" with the highest prices of the day.
09:3009:41: 027208 shrs, 05.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1319, 034.5% buys
09:5610:01: 042747 shrs, 09.16% of vol, VWAP $0.1373, 100.0% buys
10:2110:51: 074700 shrs, 16.00% of vol, VWAP $0.1332, 000.0% buys
10:5411:01: 047998 shrs, 10.28% of vol, VWAP $0.1308, 000.0% buys
11:0211:24: 093713 shrs, 20.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1310, 020.4% buys
11:4012:31: 037200 shrs, 07.97% of vol, VWAP $0.1317, 046.2% buys
13:1813:44: 047419 shrs, 10.16% of vol, VWAP $0.1312, 004.2% buys
14:0214:34: 044501 shrs, 09.53% of vol, VWAP $0.1336, 100.0% buys
14:4315:17: 025400 shrs, 05.44% of vol, VWAP $0.1328, 091.3% buys
15:1815:51: 026000 shrs, 05.57% of vol, VWAP $0.1311, 000.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range. Keep in mind the last two periods are the "outlier" trades.
$0.1302$0.1316: 246839 shrs, 52.87% of vol, VWAP $0.1309, 004.1% buys
$0.1320$0.1336: 119900 shrs, 25.68% of vol, VWAP $0.1325, 066.2% buys
$0.1340$0.1351: 081000 shrs, 17.35% of vol, VWAP $0.1349, 061.2% buys
$0.1375$0.1375: 004147 shrs, 00.89% of vol, VWAP $0.1375, 100.0% buys
$0.1410$0.1410: 015000 shrs, 03.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1410, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
04/17 $0.1344 02.30% 53.2%
04/21 $0.1435 +04.29% 25.2%
04/22 $0.1475 +02.74% 64.5%
04/23 $0.1495 +01.38% 71.3%
04/24 $0.1497 +00.15% 15.6%
04/25 $0.1471 01.75% 19.7%
04/28 $0.1440 02.14% 21.8%
04/29 $0.1460 +01.43% 57.3%
04/30 $0.1424 02.48% 19.5%
05/01 $0.1305 08.36% 44.4%
05/02 $0.1369 +04.94% 60.3%
05/05 $0.1333 02.68% 27.0%
05/06 $0.1324 00.65% 33.9%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
05/05: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1478, x 80%: $0.1182
05/06: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1461, x 80%: $0.1169
Vol in K, for above days: 318.99 466.89.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
05/05/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 55, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 14500, Vol: 318991, AvTrSz: 5800
Min. Pr: 0.1302, Max Pr: 0.1490, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1333
# Buys, Shares: 21 86240, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1371
# Sells, Shares: 33 228751, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1318
# Unkn, Shares: 1 4000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1349
Buy:Sell 1:2.65 (27.04% "buys"), DlyShts 15440 (04.84%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 6.75%
The reverse split filing effects seem to be abating. So maybe some faith can be placed in the traditional TA and my nontraditional stuff. But then volume tanked again, so maybe not.
ARCA and NITE both had bids in of 200K @ $0.13 from 9:44 on. I'm wondering if these were real attempts to acquire or just there to keep trade price above $0.13. With a sell percentage of ~73% and ARCA being predominately the most active and aggressive, along with ATDF, consistently, and NITE occasionally, I wouldn't be surprised. With the lowest price range of the day, $0.1302$0.1311, having only 8% buys but 61% of the day's volume, I would think if these bids represented serious attempts to acquire they might have jumped in and bought in this price range, causing these bids to disappear or reduce. That didn't happen.
We again had a wide spread but with some outlier trades of $0.1490 at 10:31 for 6K and 1.2K respectively. The next highest trade was $0.142 for 100 shares at 10:38. A blatant attempt to smear lipstick on a pig occurred at 15:53 with a "buy" of 220 shares at the ask of $0.1349, offered by ATDF. The highest price in the 45 minutes preceding it was $0.1303. Each outlier was a "buy".
Based on this and the discussion further down I believe there's no upward impetus in play right now. My feeling is continued sideways at best and weakness most likely. The repeated attempts to move to, and past $0.15, over the last few days keep failing even with obvious ... "outliers" in play.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is: $0.1182 vs. $0.1196, $0.1199, $0.1191, $0.1173, $0.1153, $0.1135, $0.1114, $0.1093 and $0.1071 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1066 vs. $0.1096, $0.1044, $0.1139, $0.1168, $0.1152, $0.1177, $0.1198, $0.1196 and $0.1180 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 4.16%, 0.67%, 2.68%, 70.17% and 97.40% respectively. Price spread today was 14.44% vs. 20.00%, 12.60%, 3.86%, 8.39%, 10.88%, 3.38%, 4.76%, 2.37% and 7.86% on prior days.
Above I mentioned the outlier trades, two $0.1490 trades and the $0.142 trade, and it's worthwhile to look at results without them. Using $0.14 as the high, because although it was only one 10K trade it was at least "within trend" as there were several $0.1399, $0.1380, ... trades nearby, both in price and time, with some volume.
Looking at these using $0.1400 as the high, our high change would be 6.67% (but yesterday also had some oddballs on the high) instead of the reported 0.67%. The spread would narrow from 14.44% to 7.53%.
Yesterday I said, after some explanation, I was expecting buy and daily short sales percentages to reverse in the next day or two as the initial effects of the RS surprise wore off. Of course, most of this expectation was based on my view of the underlying mechanics of trading.
Did and done! The buy percentage today plummeted from yesterday's 60.3% to 27.04% today. The daily short percentage did likewise, moving from 55.56% to 4.84%.
In conjunction with a VWAP down ~2.7% today, volume was again down to about 1/3rd of yesterday's. In traditional TA this falling volume could suggest the end of a move down might be nearing. But ...
 There were no larger trades (>= 15K) today.
 Full stochastic, which had climbed into overbought four days ago and fell out the next day and continued falling, finally stopped its descent at ~28.5, just above oversold, and made a move up toward neutral with a reading now of ~33.9.
 ADX and related, which had ceased its roll over and went flat, today descended again.
 The 200day SMA is still weakening very slowly and the 50day SMA has started to get flat.
 My original inflection point calculations, switched from six improved to three improved, two weaker and one flat period today. The aggregate fiveday changes went from all improved to two improved and four weaker. The average change over those days switched from all improved to one improved and five weaker.
 The newer version's oneday changes switched from all six periods improved to all six periods weaker today. Change over five days switched from all six improved to five improved and one weaker. The average change over those five days had a second consecutive day of all improved.
 The newer inflection point calculations' chart pattern, which had one day of moving less negative, switched to going more negative today. But with low volume it's too soon to say this is starting a trend. My other considerations make me suspect this is the case though.
 The upper Bollinger limit continues to accelerate lower and will drop below $0.18 tomorrow I think.
The RSI weakened today, down to ~42, which is below neutral.
Looking (desperately?) for some positives, we find ...
 The Bollinger's lower limit descent stopped and looks to be flattening at $0.1218, but is still below the 200day SMA of $0.1285 and the 50day SMA of $0.1516.
 Momentum, which managed to remain out of oversold for six days continued its improvement with a small rise to slightly above neutral, now reading 1.022 from 0.9793 yesterday.
That's about all the positives.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the last period only one trade, a "buy" that attempted, IMO, to paint a better close than was warranted. The highest price in the prior period was $0.1303.
09:4309:56: 045000 shrs, 14.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1352, 015.6% buys
10:0010:07: 043800 shrs, 13.73% of vol, VWAP $0.1310, 002.3% buys
10:3110:38: 051300 shrs, 16.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1399, 092.2% buys
10:5211:40: 010500 shrs, 03.29% of vol, VWAP $0.1346, 100.0% buys
11:4912:57: 045220 shrs, 14.18% of vol, VWAP $0.1324, 044.7% buys
13:3315:02: 066500 shrs, 20.85% of vol, VWAP $0.1312, 000.0% buys
15:1515:47: 056451 shrs, 17.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1303, 000.0% buys
15:5315:53: 000220 shrs, 00.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1349, 100.0% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range. Keep in mind the "outlier" trades.
$0.1302$0.1311: 194726 shrs, 61.04% of vol, VWAP $0.1308, 008.2% buys
$0.1330$0.1349: 045940 shrs, 14.40% of vol, VWAP $0.1342, 045.6% buys
$0.1350$0.1369: 028025 shrs, 08.79% of vol, VWAP $0.1360, 042.8% buys
$0.1370$0.1380: 018000 shrs, 05.64% of vol, VWAP $0.1377, 027.8% buys
$0.1399$0.1420: 025100 shrs, 07.87% of vol, VWAP $0.1399, 100.0% buys
$0.1490$0.1490: 007200 shrs, 02.26% of vol, VWAP $0.1490, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
04/16 $0.1375 04.70% 50.9%
04/17 $0.1344 02.30% 53.2%
04/21 $0.1435 +04.29% 25.2%
04/22 $0.1475 +02.74% 64.5%
04/23 $0.1495 +01.38% 71.3%
04/24 $0.1497 +00.15% 15.6%
04/25 $0.1471 01.75% 19.7%
04/28 $0.1440 02.14% 21.8%
04/29 $0.1460 +01.43% 57.3%
04/30 $0.1424 02.48% 19.5%
05/01 $0.1305 08.36% 44.4%
05/02 $0.1369 +04.94% 60.3%
05/05 $0.1333 02.68% 27.0%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
05/05: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1478, x 80%: $0.1182
Vol in K, for above days: 318.99.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
05/02/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 118, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 1069260, AvTrSz: 9062
Min. Pr: 0.1250, Max Pr: 0.1500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1369
# Buys, Shares: 74 644898, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1383
# Sells, Shares: 43 404362, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1349
# Unkn, Shares: 1 20000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1330
Buy:Sell 1.59:1 (60.31% "buys"), DlyShts 594098 (55.56%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 146.92%
With the reverse split filing continuing to have heavy effect today, all TA considerations should be viewed with a jaundiced eye until new trends can be established.
We had a wide spread, and found support at $0.125 and resistance at $0.15 (but see comments about some outlier trades below). Buy percentage and daily short sales percentages are high, as suggested by prior days' actions. Whether this continues another day or two or immediately reverses is unknown, but I'm expecting them to reverse in the next day or two as the initial effects of the RS surprise wears off. The wide spread and relatively high volume combined with touches on potential support and resistance points makes any directional bets iffy.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is: $0.1196 vs. $0.1199, $0.1191, $0.1173, $0.1153, $0.1135, $0.1114, $0.1093, $0.1071 and $0.1049 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1096 vs. $0.1044, $0.1139, $0.1168, $0.1152, $0.1177, $0.1198, $0.1196, $0.1180 and $0.1148 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 1.57%, 4.90%, 4.94%, 65.32% and 35.05% respectively. Price spread today was 20.00% vs. 12.60%, 3.86%, 8.39%, 10.88%, 3.38%, 4.76%, 2.37%, 7.86% and 7.14% on prior days.
Looking at these using $0.13 for the low and $0.1400 as the high (see the following for reasoning), our low and high changes would be 2.36% and 2.10% instead of the reported 1.57% and 4.90%. The spread would narrow from 20.00% to 7.69%.
Today's low and high were each set by outlying trades. The low was set by the first trade at $0.1250 for 18K shares at 9:30:09 and the next higher was at 9:46 with an 8K trade for $0.1270. These were both "sells". The next higher price was $0.1300 and had five trades totaling 30K.
The high was set by a trade at 15:56:22 for 7K shares at $0.15. The next highest price was from three trades for $0.1499 totaling 22K. These three occurred in a 2minute period, 15:54:2015:56:19. The attempt to close at the high (all these were "buys") was spoiled by ARCA reentering the sell side at 15:56 with a $0.145 offer and then moving it to $0.142 at 15:58 when ATDF had the gall to jump ahead of them by the usual 1/100th penny with a $0.1449 offer. Must have ticked someone off because ARCA moved 3/10ths down in one step. Must have wanted to be sure they got the last trade or something. They succeeded as the close was a single 2,200 share trade at $0.142, also a "buy". Knocking these obvious outliers off, our high would be $0.14.
Although VWAP was up ~5% today, volume was down to about 1/3rd of yesterday's. In traditional TA this would not be an indication of strength. But for AXPW, it's still pretty high.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 22 of the 118 trades, 18.64%. These 581,400 shares were 54.37% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1376. 13 of the larger trades, 59.09%, were buys of 384,900 shares, 66.20% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1393. 8 of the larger trades, 36.36%, were sells of 176,500 shares, 30.36% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1346. 1 of the larger trades, 4.55%, were "unknowns" of 20,000 shares, 3.44% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1330.
The other 96 trades, 81.36% of the day's trades, traded 487,860 shares, 45.63% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1361. 61 trades, 63.54%, were buys and accounted for 259,998 shares, 53.29% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1369. 35 trades, 36.46%, were sells and accounted for 227,862 shares, 46.71% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1352.
Full stochastic, which had climbed into overbought four days ago and fell out the next day and continued falling, finally stopped its descent at ~28.5, just above oversold, and made a move up toward neutral with a reading now of~33.9.
N.B. For the last few days I erroneously said oversold  a typical brain glitch for me. I've corrected those entries.
The Bollinger's lower limit descent stopped and moved up to $0.128, but is still below the200day SMA of $0.1286 and the 50day SMA of $0.1508. The upper limit, which I said should begin to accelerate tomorrow, did so today is now down to $0.1861 from $0.1929 on 4/28.
Momentum, which had managed to remain out of oversold for six days but was sitting right on it with a reading of 0.80, moved up toward neutral today, getting a reading of 0.979, just below neutral.
ADX and related, ceased its roll over and went flat today.
I noted yesterday the prior day's very low buy percentage did what it should, "bouncing" off the low reading as buy percentage recovered to 44.4% from 19.5%. I said "I expect it will be high again tomorrow and daily short sales percentage should remain high, or even move higher depending on how strong the buy percentage comes in".
Did and done! Buy percentage today was 60.3%, up from 44.4% yesterday and 19.5% the prior day, and daily short sales percentage was 55.56%, up from 29.66% yesterday and 8.53% the prior day.
My original inflection point calculations, switched from one improved period and five weaker to six improved today. The aggregate fiveday changes went from four improved and two weaker to all improved. The average change over those days switched from two improved and four weaker to all improved. Keep in mind the reducing, but still relatively high, volume and elevated daily short sales percentage. If this latter item does the next logical thing, based on past behavior, it should reverse in the next day or two and drag buy percentage and price down with it.
The newer version's oneday changes switched from one improved period and five weaker to six improved today. Change over five days switched from all periods weaker for four consecutive days to all six improved. The average change over those five days switched from one period improved and five weaker to all improved. Keep in mind the reducing, but still relatively high, volume and elevated daily short sales percentage.
The newer inflection point calculations' chart pattern, switched from two days growing more negative with good volume on the second day to moving more positive.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the first period include an 18K trade at $0.1250 and an 8K trade at $0.1270, both sells. All others were $0.130 or greater.
09:3009:56: 093600 shrs, 08.75% of vol, VWAP $0.1300, 048.7% buys
10:0510:59: 096900 shrs, 09.06% of vol, VWAP $0.1320, 060.8% buys
11:0211:28: 103299 shrs, 09.66% of vol, VWAP $0.1331, 047.7% buys
11:3212:26: 110100 shrs, 10.30% of vol, VWAP $0.1349, 013.7% buys
12:3012:51: 088100 shrs, 08.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1375, 028.4% buys
13:0513:29: 174399 shrs, 16.31% of vol, VWAP $0.1389, 082.3% buys
13:4313:57: 135300 shrs, 12.65% of vol, VWAP $0.1397, 088.2% buys
14:0314:48: 020600 shrs, 01.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1395, 056.3% buys
15:0715:30: 038362 shrs, 03.59% of vol, VWAP $0.1393, 037.5% buys
15:3215:45: 173400 shrs, 16.22% of vol, VWAP $0.1397, 075.5% buys
15:5015:58: 035200 shrs, 03.29% of vol, VWAP $0.1481, 088.6% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1270$0.1275: 067413 shrs, 02.19% of vol, VWAP $0.1273, 043.0% buys
$0.1280$0.1299: 732236 shrs, 23.75% of vol, VWAP $0.1288, 042.0% buys
$0.1300$0.1300: 1261446 shrs, 40.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1300, 046.3% buys
$0.1301$0.1314: 430462 shrs, 13.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1307, 036.0% buys
$0.1320$0.1327: 268895 shrs, 08.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1324, 023.4% buys
$0.1330$0.1349: 173400 shrs, 05.62% of vol, VWAP $0.1336, 076.9% buys
$0.1350$0.1352: 105643 shrs, 03.43% of vol, VWAP $0.1351, 065.9% buys
$0.1400$0.1400: 042287 shrs, 01.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1400, 059.5% buys
$0.1430$0.1430: 001786 shrs, 00.06% of vol, VWAP $0.1430, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
04/15 $0.1443 12.06% 32.2%
04/16 $0.1375 04.70% 50.9%
04/17 $0.1344 02.30% 53.2%
04/21 $0.1435 +04.29% 25.2%
04/22 $0.1475 +02.74% 64.5%
04/23 $0.1495 +01.38% 71.3%
04/24 $0.1497 +00.15% 15.6%
04/25 $0.1471 01.75% 19.7%
04/28 $0.1440 02.14% 21.8%
04/29 $0.1460 +01.43% 57.3%
04/30 $0.1424 02.48% 19.5%
05/01 $0.1305 08.36% 44.4%
5/02 $0.1369 +04.94% 60.3%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
04/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1442, x 80%: $0.1153
04/29: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1466, x 80%: $0.1173
04/30: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1489, x 80%: $0.1191
05/01: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1498, x 80%: $0.1199
05/02: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1495, x 80%: $0.1196
Vol in K, for above days: 454.60 207.61 485.15 3,083.57 1069.26.
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
05/01/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 223, MinTrSz: 9, MaxTrSz: 182000, Vol: 3083568, AvTrSz: 13828
Min. Pr: 0.1270, Max Pr: 0.1430, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1305
# Buys, Shares: 122 1369130, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1309
# Sells, Shares: 101 1714438, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1302
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.25 (44.40% "buys"), DlyShts 914664 (29.66%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 53.35%
With the reverse split filing having heavy effect today, all TA considerations should be discounted heavily until new trends can be established. Therefore I'll have little commentary today.
There were 5 premarket trades for 32,130 shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 3,051,048 to 3,083,568 and would lower the short percentage from 29.97% to 29.66%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 914,664 to 946,794 and the short percentage would be 30.70%.
The average of the lowest 20 VWAPs times 80% today is: $0.1199 vs. $0.1191, $0.1173, $0.1153, $0.1135, $0.1114, $0.1093, $0.1071, $0.1049 and $0.1029 on prior days. 80% of today's VWAP is $0.1044 vs. $0.1139, $0.1168, $0.1152, $0.1177, $0.1198, $0.1196, $0.1180, $0.1148 and $0.1075 on prior days. These are potential prices for the next tranche of shares to the PIPErs.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 9.29%, 1.65%, 8.36%, 535.59% and 2110.78% respectively. Price spread today was 12.60% vs. 3.86%, 8.39%, 10.88%, 3.38%, 4.76%, 2.37%, 7.86%, 7.14% and 13.76% on prior days.
Today had volume up 535.59% from yesterday, which was up 133.68% from the prior day. Nothing should be taken from this, IMO, other than we saw a typical reaction to the filing requesting authorization for a reverse split.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 58 of the 223 trades, 26.01%. These 2,129,489 shares were 69.06% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1303. 30 of the larger trades, 51.72%, were buys of 899,882 shares, 42.26% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1307. 28 of the larger trades, 48.28%, were sells of 1,229,607 shares, 57.74% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1301.
The other 165 trades, 73.99% of the day's trades, traded 954,079 shares, 30.94% of the days volume. The VWAP was 0.1309. 92 trades, 55.76%, were buys and accounted for 469,248 shares, 49.18% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1313. 73 trades, 44.24%, were sells and accounted for 484,831 shares, 50.82% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1305.
Full stochastic, which had climbed into overbought three days ago and fell out the next day continues falling.
The Bollinger's lower limit descent picked up a little steam for the second day in a row and at $0.1223 is further below the 200day SMA of $0.1287. The upper limit continues its slow degradation. It should begin to accelerate tomorrow.
Momentum again managed to remain out of oversold for the sixth day with a reading of 0.80. It's sitting right on the oversold value.
ADX and related, continued to roll over.
Yesterday's very low buy percentage, which I mentioned maintained the directional correlation with a buy percentage that moved from 57.3% to 19.5%, did what it should today "bouncing" off the low reading as buy percentage recovered to 44.4%. With the buy percentage behaving as id did on this day, I expect it will be high again tomorrow and daily short sales percentage should remain high, or even move higher depending on how strong the buy percentage comes in.
My original inflection point calculations, switched from four periods weaker and two mildly improved to one improved and five weaker today. The aggregate fiveday changes went from all periods weaker to four improved and two weaker. The average change over those days switched from five weaker and one improved to two improved and four weaker.
The newer version's oneday changes held steady with one improved period and five weaker today. Change over five days continues with all periods weaker for the fourth consecutive day, with the average change over those five days switching from showing all periods weakened for three consecutive days to one period improved and five weaker.
The newer inflection point calculations' chart pattern, now has two days growing more negative with good volume on this second day.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. NOTE! The first period are premarket trades, quite unusual. I presume the cause was the reverse split filing.
08:1909:28: 032130 shrs, 01.04% of vol, VWAP $0.1353, 000.0% buys
09:3009:30: 264616 shrs, 08.58% of vol, VWAP $0.1292, 062.8% buys
09:3209:59: 320870 shrs, 10.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1307, 016.2% buys
10:0010:29: 323582 shrs, 10.49% of vol, VWAP $0.1299, 046.6% buys
10:3010:57: 202009 shrs, 06.55% of vol, VWAP $0.1300, 002.5% buys
11:0011:23: 095895 shrs, 03.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1302, 099.4% buys
11:3011:37: 054225 shrs, 01.76% of vol, VWAP $0.1322, 074.2% buys
12:1312:39: 458643 shrs, 14.87% of vol, VWAP $0.1332, 031.3% buys
12:4612:58: 270150 shrs, 08.76% of vol, VWAP $0.1299, 022.9% buys
13:0013:29: 068300 shrs, 02.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1296, 057.1% buys
13:3013:50: 098462 shrs, 03.19% of vol, VWAP $0.1301, 035.4% buys
14:1014:28: 085676 shrs, 02.78% of vol, VWAP $0.1300, 082.5% buys
14:3214:59: 230500 shrs, 07.48% of vol, VWAP $0.1318, 073.3% buys
15:1315:27: 368097 shrs, 11.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1289, 048.0% buys
15:3115:47: 057413 shrs, 01.86% of vol, VWAP $0.1273, 033.1% buys
15:5415:59: 153000 shrs, 04.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1299, 094.8% buys
Here's a breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1270$0.1275: 067413 shrs, 02.19% of vol, VWAP $0.1273, 043.0% buys
$0.1280$0.1299: 732236 shrs, 23.75% of vol, VWAP $0.1288, 042.0% buys
$0.1300$0.1300: 1261446 shrs, 40.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1300, 046.3% buys
$0.1301$0.1314: 430462 shrs, 13.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1307, 036.0% buys
$0.1320$0.1327: 268895 shrs, 08.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1324, 023.4% buys
$0.1330$0.1349: 173400 shrs, 05.62% of vol, VWAP $0.1336, 076.9% buys
$0.1350$0.1352: 105643 shrs, 03.43% of vol, VWAP $0.1351, 065.9% buys
$0.1400$0.1400: 042287 shrs, 01.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1400, 059.5% buys
$0.1430$0.1430: 001786 shrs, 00.06% of vol, VWAP $0.1430, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
04/14 $0.1641 02.87% 43.3%
04/15 $0.1443 12.06% 32.2%
04/16 $0.1375 04.70% 50.9%
04/17 $0.1344 02.30% 53.2%
04/21 $0.1435 +04.29% 25.2%
04/22 $0.1475 +02.74% 64.5%
04/23 $0.1495 +01.38% 71.3%
04/24 $0.1497 +00.15% 15.6%
04/25 $0.1471 01.75% 19.7%
04/28 $0.1440 02.14% 21.8%
04/29 $0.1460 +01.43% 57.3%
04/30 $0.1424 02.48% 19.5%
05/01 $0.1305 08.36% 44.4%
This week's daily estimated values (older dailys in prior EOD posts in prior blog) for next share issue (if any more left?):
04/28: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1442, x 80%: $0.1153
04/29: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1466, x 80%: $0.1173
04/30: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1489, x 80%: $0.1191
05/01: 20 lowest intraday VWAPs in 40 days avg, $0.1498, x 80%: $0.1199
Vol in K, for above days: 454.60 207.61 485.15 3,083.57
Week ending summaries of PIPE financing estimated 85% share pricing, "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", and inflection points here are in the latest daily post above.
Disclosure: I am long AXPW.
Additional disclosure: I am very experimental and sometimes do my TA in nontraditional fashions. Keep this in mind when considering anything I post and be sure and consult other sources and do your due diligence. I'm barely responsible for myself and certainly not responsible for anyone else or their actions. :)
Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.
Share this Instablog with a colleague
HardToLove
HardToLove
P.S. Some of my older blogs delve into my understanding of how all this operates. Things could have changed and if I started investigating today I might reach different conclusions. So far nothing in the data I have suggests a need to reexamine.
Have you been doing much shortrun trading with your analysis, or are you waiting to get more data? Seems you've built some interesting data points potentially for short run trading.
HardToLove