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AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 12/01/2014 $AXPW http://seekingalpha.com/p/237ad Nov 29, 2014

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AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 07/01/2014 4 comments
Links to blogs older than the 01/01/2014 version, PIPE discussions, one year charts will be found only in that and older blogs. Most historical short sales related stuff has also been chopped.
In the below chart the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!
(rightclick and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)
Next are modified inflection point calculation charts bracketing a price chart for comparison.
The two identically calculated inflection points are calculated differently from the original above. I have two different presentations of this newer version. The top one has all periods on the same scale. The bottom one has longer periods on the left scale and shorter periods on the right scale. The hope is that shorter period changes will be easier to spot. More work to do, this is a start, hopefully.
Other changes I want to try are still waiting for me to work on them.
(rightclick and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)
Older stuff for "2013 Dly Sht % of 'sells' values", Weekly 85% price summaries going back to 6/14/2012, and some daytoday VWAP changes stuff going back to 10/09 are available in AXPW: IntraDay Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 10/1/2013.
Believing that the PIPE financing has run it's course, I'm not going to post stuff related that any more. The calculations will still be available if needed though.
07/31/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 30, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 45000, Vol: 287546, AvTrSz: 9585
Min. Pr: 0.1010, Max Pr: 0.1069, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1040
# Buys, Shares: 10 55500, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1052
# Sells, Shares: 20 232046, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1037
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:4.18 (19.30% "buys"), DlyShts 2000 (00.70%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 0.86%
At last, some good news ... Although it's not much. Recall we had closed below my descending support for the second consecutive day, confirming a break out lower on falling, but still "big" for us, volume. Then a closing above the line yesterday was discounted by me because it was due to an outlier of $0.106 when ETRF and ATDF were fighting for bid position during the last half hour with 100K bids. I said I didn't believe it. Well, today an honest close above the line with no finagling at the end of the day.
But it's darn close  my best guess is less than a tenth of a penny. But we have to take what we can get.
Don't worry  I'll rain on the parade below.
I said as long as VWAP declines I'm sticking to my belief that the $0.10x area won't be that strong a support (yet to be seen) and that low $0.09x seems to be a potential stronger support area. Today VWAP continued to decline.
Looking at today's stuff ...
Yesterday I commented on the extremely low daily short sales being normal after very large volume spikes and provided links to some old charts where that behavior could be seen.
Today is a continuation of that behavior and also normal  even more so I guess when the buy percentage is down at 19% as it is today. Generally this very low daily short sales trend will start to end on the third or fourth day after the latest highvolume day. So we can look for it to start to change tomorrow or Monday.
Meanwhile another trait of the low daily short percentages is manifest: low and/or falling VWAPs. Those trends tend to go on longer than the daily short sales trend, which is quite choppy when it starts to change.
The potential outliers based on price today were a single $0.1069 buy of 10K shares at 11:58 and the next lower price of $0.1064, which were two buys totaling 3K shares. The next down was 20K of mixed buys and sells at $0.1063. We finally got a decent number of trades and volume at $0.1050. With today's low volume I think it's not really worth much to consider examining the effects of discounting these.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 1.00%, 1.66%, 00.64%, 15.48% and 71.83% respectively. Price spread today was 5.84% vs. 8.70%, 16.32%, 25.74% (23.76% if $0.1250 used as high), 20.82%, 6.22%, 2.31%, 2.69%, 6.08% and 5.11% on prior days.
In the traditional TA area, all the minuscule improvements seen in the oscillators I watch dissipated today. Considering the low volume and other factors seen today, not surprising I guess.
A very minor bright spot  today's low of $0.101 was a small improvement from yesterday's $0.10. But with the daily short sales where it's at and the volume continuing to fall I can't say it offers a lot of hope. The outside hope is that we are really in a bottoming process, which I mentioned was a possibility yesterday. But I didn't then, and don't now, put a lot of faith in that possibility ... at least yet. Too many things need to change before I will get a bit optimistic about that.
Another small bright spot  we traded mostly above the falling lower Bollinger limit today, now showing $0.1009 vs. $0.1053, $0.1098, $0.1155, $0.1226 and $0.1278 on prior days. A caveat: it will keep falling for some time causing the potential midpoint, to which we might recover, to move lower as the upper limit stops its ascent, which it has begun to do already. It's beginning to roll over to "flattish" today. It's showing $0.1608 vs. $0.1606, $0.1596, $0.1574, $0.1549 and $0.1532 on prior days.
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs again all continued down. Today the averages are $0.1086, $0.1202, $0.1339 and $0.1462, down from yesterday's $0.1137, $0.1233, $0.1358 and $0.1474. The 100day average continued falling too. Starting with Friday, 7/21, we have $0.1534, $0.1537, $0.1541, $0.1544, $0.1546, $0.1546, $0.1542, $0.1534 and $0.1525 today.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 4 of the 30 trades, 13.33%. These 137,000 shares were 47.64% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1041. 0 of the larger trades, 0%, were buys of 0 shares, 0% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0. 4 of the larger trades, 100.00%, were sells of 137,000 shares, 100.00% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1041.
The other 26 trades, 86.67% of the day's trades, traded 150,546 shares, 52.36% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1039. 10 trades, 38.46%, were buys and accounted for 55,500 shares, 36.87% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1052. 16 trades, 61.54%, were sells and accounted for 95,046 shares, 63.13% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1032.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:41: 018000 shrs, 06.26% of vol, VWAP $0.1010, 000.0% buys
09:5111:23: 095546 shrs, 33.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1024, 015.7% buys
11:4412:13: 067000 shrs, 23.30% of vol, VWAP $0.1053, 055.2% buys
12:4213:12: 023500 shrs, 08.17% of vol, VWAP $0.1063, 014.9% buys
13:5613:56: 075000 shrs, 26.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1050, 000.0% buys
14:1315:12: 008500 shrs, 02.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1031, 000.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1010$0.1021: 098546 shrs, 34.27% of vol, VWAP $0.1019, 000.0% buys
$0.1031$0.1040: 023500 shrs, 08.17% of vol, VWAP $0.1037, 063.8% buys
$0.1050$0.1050: 132000 shrs, 45.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1050, 020.5% buys
$0.1063$0.1069: 033500 shrs, 11.65% of vol, VWAP $0.1065, 040.3% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/16 $0.1398 00.09% 28.9%
07/17 $0.1353 10.50% 24.9%
07/18 $0.1344 00.60% 64.9%
07/21 $0.1318 01.94% 34.4%
07/22 $0.1315 00.26% 50.6%
07/23 $0.1317 +00.16% 62.0%
07/24 $0.1297 01.48% 49.1%
07/25 $0.1178 09.19% 23.8%
07/28 $0.1113 05.51% 30.0%
07/29 $0.1051 05.60% 45.7%
07/30 $0.1047 00.42% 12.2%
07/31 $0.1040 00.64% 19.3%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume continued falling back to a more normal, for us, range. With the lower volume comes a return to "noise", but the overall weakening trend still seems in place to me.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
039.07 0107.82 0364.54 0727.31 02092.50 07044.45
015.30 0086.32 0344.92 0641.01 02021.59 06782.83
054.16 0081.33 0378.70 0704.36 02177.30 07014.61
052.40 0075.51 0357.46 0644.63 02037.68 06679.46
018.40 0053.47 0308.37 0554.64 01849.94 06254.12
011.84 0048.89 0313.49 0542.03 01873.47 06304.63
108.47 0135.29 0468.19 0737.60 02900.85 08684.19
212.09 0286.96 0610.67 0950.02 03358.38 09626.50
134.82 0171.43 0372.29 0494.57 01149.54 04728.89
258.75 0295.48 0561.16 0900.25 03010.39 09172.28
251.21 0275.95 0515.38 0824.90 02406.96 08009.76
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are omitted from the concentrator.
On my ORIGINAL inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
 1day change 
07/22 +00.1% +03.1% +03.5% +05.8% +01.0% +00.9%
07/23 +65.6% +25.4% +10.7% +10.6% +01.2% +00.8%
07/24 +50.7% +12.6% 00.7% +04.1% +01.0% +00.5%
07/25 1004.5% 127.0% 25.9% 06.3% +05.6% +00.2%
07/28 107.9% 134.6% 29.3% 29.1% 09.3% 01.0%
07/29 07.0% 05.5% +02.9% +05.1% +04.5% +00.0%
07/30 20.7% 03.9% +01.6% 07.0% 07.1% +00.1%
07/31 10.4% 06.4% 02.8% 03.9% +04.0% +00.8%
 5day change 
07/22 007.7% 080.6% +094.8% +1072.3% 052.9% +010.5%
07/23 +161.4% +120.3% +2304.9% +087.3% +046.7% +011.9%
07/24 +059.5% +058.4% 021.1% +005.4% 084.0% +002.2%
07/25 385.9% 140.3% 247.8% 072.0% +238.2% 040.4%
07/28 074.3% 635.0% 148.4% 250.6% 099.9% 054.1%
07/29 009.4% 009.1% +001.5% 001.3% +81951.9% 065.9%
07/30 048.0% 015.0% 020.0% 160.5% 226.9% 161.2%
07/31 014.8% 011.1% 006.5% 027.6% +068.2% +122.5%
 5day rate of change 
07/22 +046.1% 1261.8% +332.6% +103.9% 17068.0% +071.9%
07/23 +099.6% +052.2% +105.1% +1769.9% +037.6% +046.5%
07/24 +077.6% +083.6% 022.4% 016.9% 082.0% +014.6%
07/25 224662.6% 1365.1% 171.4% 183.9% +024.5% 133.8%
07/28 +017.8% 113.7% 092.4% +000.8% 005.3% 243.6%
07/29 009.8% +020.7% 038.4% 100.9% +074.4% 050.9%
07/30 096.3% 023.5% 057.5% 120.7% 276.3% 032.5%
07/31 018.1% 017.9% 000.3% 017.4% +079.6% +004.7%
On my NEWER inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
 1day change 
07/22 +003.26% +007.15% +005.61% +008.48% +006.41% +004.78%
07/23 +064.88% +029.19% +013.73% +013.96% +009.21% +006.37%
07/24 +035.65% +008.56% 001.66% +002.27% 001.27% 000.81%
07/25 815.94% 176.72% 049.35% 036.08% 054.84% 037.74%
07/28 095.52% 112.11% 030.43% 028.80% 015.77% 010.85%
07/29 +036.43% +040.26% +039.04% +047.94% +065.77% +050.88%
07/30 004.36% +010.50% +011.86% +005.81% +013.16% +010.97%
07/31 +002.91% +006.61% +008.16% +008.37% +020.05% +012.67%
 5day change 
07/22 +001.54% 085.85% +081.11% +143.51% +054.50% +075.77%
07/23 +151.43% +227.10% +450.84% +259.24% +133.38% +179.37%
07/24 +070.72% +077.92% +007.96% +049.85% +408.46% +430.14%
07/25 442.17% 183.09% 341.48% 152.13% 501.45% 357.00%
07/28 069.50% 319.95% 088.18% 154.33% 034.33% 037.37%
07/29 +047.81% +053.35% +093.61% +161.08% +175.20% +174.68%
07/30 022.91% +004.96% +009.47% 011.08% +018.79% +019.44%
07/31 +000.41% +006.18% +020.13% +018.16% +054.03% +041.57%
 5day rate of change 
07/22 +053.23% 365.32% +162.73% +105.85% +086.98% +109.24%
07/23 +108.12% +063.77% +141.20% +883.70% +356.95% +457.04%
07/24 017.17% +114.64% 009.29% +007.20% +034.77% +048.66%
07/25 3152.81% 2536.27% 185.45% 163.07% 262.82% 186.85%
07/28 +012.21% 107.52% 067.12% 020.11% 016.22% 034.34%
07/29 +059.34% +061.74% +099.16% +169.43% +213.33% +212.72%
07/30 055.77% 003.91% 012.91% 035.80% +007.41% +011.29%
07/31 004.02% 003.95% +015.71% +000.24% +037.48% +020.04%
Rolling 5day ORIGINAL inflection point calculation aggregate change:
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
07/22 5 Day 0193.69 +0108.72 0015.02 +0515.34 +0838.21 +2199.16
07/23 5 Day +0118.83 +0239.51 +0331.26 +0965.06 +1230.04 +2459.97
07/24 5 Day +0189.52 +0379.45 +0261.34 +1016.81 +0196.57 +2513.67
07/25 5 Day 0541.74 0152.97 0386.28 +0284.48 +0664.84 +1497.21
07/28 5 Day 0944.50 1124.36 0959.66 0428.42 +0000.47 +0687.32
07/29 5 Day 1033.36 1227.04 0945.05 0433.82 +0382.36 +0234.40
07/30 5 Day 1529.37 1410.55 1133.66 1130.20 0485.34 0143.45
07/31 5 Day 1756.30 1566.78 1207.87 1442.53 0154.13 +0032.32
Average change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
07/22 099.22 137.71 +061.45 +007.30 394.03 +133.69
07/23 000.37 065.79 +126.05 +136.59 246.02 +195.87
07/24 000.08 010.76 +097.87 +113.54 447.76 +224.49
07/25 186.10 157.70 069.85 095.28 338.03 075.80
07/28 152.93 337.01 134.40 094.48 355.83 260.48
07/29 167.93 267.15 186.00 189.83 091.17 392.95
07/30 329.64 330.01 292.98 419.05 343.07 520.68
07/31 389.16 389.25 293.84 491.87 070.14 496.27
Rolling 5day NEWER inflection point calculation aggregate change:
******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
07/22 5 Day 0031.02 +0010.13 0013.48 +0034.42 0129.04 0175.83
07/23 5 Day +0015.95 +0033.12 +0047.28 +0123.65 +0043.08 +0139.55
07/24 5 Day +0027.23 +0058.93 +0051.05 +0185.28 +0219.02 +0739.81
07/25 5 Day 0093.17 0048.97 0123.27 0096.59 0879.25 1901.35
07/28 5 Day 0157.93 0205.63 0231.97 0245.65 1181.08 2611.90
07/29 5 Day 0082.43 0095.93 0014.83 +0150.06 +0888.15 +1950.56
07/30 5 Day 0240.35 0242.01 0252.78 0345.61 1160.46 2918.16
07/31 5 Day 0239.37 0227.07 0201.89 0282.86 0533.48 1705.12
Average change/day, 5 days
____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
07/22 0014.03 0020.67 +0010.28 +0004.17 0027.39 +0039.05
07/23 +0001.14 0007.49 +0024.80 +0041.02 +0070.39 +0217.50
07/24 +0000.94 +0001.10 +0022.50 +0043.97 +0094.86 +0323.35
07/25 0028.80 0026.71 0019.22 0027.73 0154.45 0280.84
07/28 0025.28 0055.43 0032.13 0033.31 0179.50 0377.28
07/29 0010.28 0021.21 0000.27 +0023.13 +0203.44 +0425.28
07/30 0051.26 0055.03 0060.01 0093.85 0240.71 0611.54
07/31 0053.32 0057.20 0050.59 0093.63 0150.50 0488.99
Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
============ 2014 ===============
Mon. 04/28 19.56% 75.57% 10.59% 53.35% 146.92%
Mon. 05/05 06.75% 17.36% 25.05% 91.05% 26.31%
Mon. 05/12 8.83% 5.83% 55.91% 129.18% 43.96%
Mon. 05/19 114.88% 62.66% 16.13% 113.62% 202.40%
Tue. 05/27 558.01% 82.58% 62.65% 5.48%
Mon. 06/02 92.28% 106.34% 21.82% 68.00% 78.39%
Mon. 06/09 394.94% 36.50% 20.32% 3.25% 59.37%
Mon. 06/16 3.08% 20.04% 115.38% 123.91% 41.58%
Mon. 06/23 1.32% 14.66% 42.12% 4.77% 0.00%
Mon. 06/30 14.06% 35.73% 189.65% 12.10%
Mon. 07/07 49.36% 80.69% 51.65% 0.96% 25.44%
Mon. 07/14 710.00% 96.53% 18.18% 12.08% 148.85%
Mon. 07/21 43.30% 27.77% 115.18% 95.82% 55.57%
Mon. 07/28 32.52% 8.48% 2.38% 0.86%
============ 2014 ===============
Jan Avg: 54.66%, min: 09.32%, max: 130.29%
Feb Avg: 50.44%, min: 00.28%, max: 112.52%
Mar Avg: 85.68%, min: 16.78%, max: 335.39%
Apr Avg: 51.85%, min: 10.59%, max: 153.62%
May Avg: 87.09%, min: 05.48%, max: 558.01%
Jun Avg: 60.10%, min: 00.00%, max: 394.94%
Jul Avg: 82.38%, min: 00.86%, max: 710.00%
0731 Vol 0287546, Sht 0002000 00.70% LHC 0.1010 0.1069 0.1031 b:s 1:4.18
0730 Vol 0340156, Sht 0007100 02.09% LHC 0.1000 0.1087 0.1060 b:s 1:7.22
0729 Vol 1000682, Sht 0046100 04.61% LHC 0.1005 0.1169 0.1049 b:s 1:1.19
0728 Vol 2101508, Sht 0475523 22.61% LHC 0.1010 0.1270 0.1049 b:s 1:2.32
0725 Vol 1240998, Sht 0472689 38.09% LHC 0.1100 0.1329 0.1151 b:s 1:2.18[140]
0724 Vol 0357810, Sht 0174600 48.80% LHC 0.1270 0.1349 0.1300 b:s 1:1.04
0723 Vol 0099869, Sht 0043769 43.83% LHC 0.1300 0.1330 0.1324 b:s 1.63:1
0722 Vol 0169923, Sht 0023323 13.73% LHC 0.1300 0.1335 0.1310 b:s 1.02:1
0721 Vol 0546751, Sht 0155300 28.40% LHC 0.1300 0.1379 0.1301 b:s 1:1.91
0718 Vol 0321777, Sht 0168000 52.21% LHC 0.1330 0.1398 0.1398 b:s 1.85:1
0717 Vol 0126800, Sht 0011500 09.07% LHC 0.1193 0.1400 0.1350 b:s 1:3.01
0716 Vol 0452300, Sht 0058457 12.92% LHC 0.1333 0.1500 0.1399 b:s 1:2.46
0715 Vol 0078025, Sht 0036900 47.29% LHC 0.1362 0.1500 0.1400 b:s 1.04:1
0714 Vol 0104900, Sht 0063900 60.92% LHC 0.1394 0.1441 0.1400 b:s 10.66:1
0711 Vol 0138100, Sht 0027600 19.99% LHC 0.1390 0.1444 0.1406 b:s 1:3.67
0710 Vol 0075100, Sht 0000600 00.80% LHC 0.1391 0.1500 0.1402 b:s 1:4.96
0709 Vol 0336501, Sht 0110951 32.97% LHC 0.1401 0.1488 0.1488 b:s 1:1.77
0708 Vol 0219704, Sht 0093722 42.66% LHC 0.1377 0.1600 0.1450 b:s 1:1.12
0707 Vol 0500365, Sht 0176325 35.24% LHC 0.1350 0.1600 0.1400 b:s 1:2.50
0703 Vol 0170436, Sht 0013640 08.00% LHC 0.1400 0.1499 0.1499 b:s 1:1.95
0702 Vol 0073052, Sht 0037929 51.92% LHC 0.1417 0.1489 0.1450 b:s 2.65:1
0701 Vol 0326007, Sht 0089879 27.57% LHC 0.1400 0.1600 0.1411 b:s 1:3.38
0630 Vol 0675553, Sht 0079920 11.83% LHC 0.1401 0.1510 0.1403 b:s 1:5.49
0627 Vol 0098949, Sht 0000000 00.00% LHC 0.1500 0.1525 0.1510 b:s 1:2.45
0626 Vol 0075823, Sht 0002363 03.12% LHC 0.1501 0.1600 0.1501 b:s 1:2.27
0625 Vol 0161508, Sht 0050536 31.29% LHC 0.1500 0.1600 0.1539 b:s 1:3.80
0624 Vol 0426360, Sht 0053499 12.55% LHC 0.1500 0.1529 0.1501 b:s 1:6.43
0623 Vol 0195270, Sht 0002500 01.28% LHC 0.1502 0.1544 0.1520 b:s 1:34.32
0620 Vol 0147060, Sht 0048400 32.93% LHC 0.1510 0.1545 0.1520 b:s 1:3.80
0619 Vol 0188752, Sht 0078694 41.69% LHC 0.1520 0.1545 0.1545 b:s 1.97:1
0618 Vol 0085290, Sht 0045000 52.76% LHC 0.1520 0.1549 0.1544 b:s 1.19:1
0617 Vol 0376829, Sht 0059356 15.75% LHC 0.1501 0.1565 0.1550 b:s 1:3.67
0616 Vol 0087890, Sht 0002589 02.95% LHC 0.1501 0.1569 0.1550 b:s 1:21.70
0613 Vol 0026407, Sht 0007500 28.40% LHC 0.1540 0.1570 0.1541 b:s 1.09:1
0612 Vol 0047330, Sht 0001250 02.64% LHC 0.1515 0.1600 0.1540 b:s 1:4.33
0611 Vol 0166574, Sht 0029073 17.45% LHC 0.1510 0.1599 0.1515 b:s 1:6.09
0610 Vol 0172006, Sht 0046706 27.15% LHC 0.1500 0.1649 0.1501 b:s 1:2.90
0609 Vol 0298773, Sht 0210580 70.48% LHC 0.1531 0.1649 0.1600 b:s 4.60:1
0606 Vol 0315525, Sht 0121500 38.51% LHC 0.1501 0.1625 0.1550 b:s 1.05:1[139]
0605 Vol 0234725, Sht 0084400 35.96% LHC 0.1535 0.1658 0.1625 b:s 1:1.12
0604 Vol 0087850, Sht 0013400 15.25% LHC 0.1510 0.1699 0.1644 b:s 1:2.32
0603 Vol 0102057, Sht 0034507 33.81% LHC 0.1622 0.1700 0.1622 b:s 2.15:1
0602 Vol 0077384, Sht 0030515 39.43% LHC 0.1506 0.1696 0.1684 b:s 1.34:1
[139] There was one aftermarket trade of 2.5K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 315,525 to 318,025 and would lower the short percentage from 38.51% to 38.20%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 121,500 to 124,000 and the short percentage would be 38.99%.
[140] There was one aftermarket trade of 400K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,240,998 to 1,640,998 and would lower the short percentage from 38.09% to 28.80%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 472,677 to 872,677 and the short percentage would be 53.18%.
07/30/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 27, MinTrSz: 50, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 340206, AvTrSz: 12600
Min. Pr: 0.1000, Max Pr: 0.1087, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1047
# Buys, Shares: 8 41400, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1044
# Sells, Shares: 19 298806, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1047
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:7.22 (12.17% "buys"), DlyShts 7100 (02.09%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 2.38%
Yesterday we closed below my descending support for the second consecutive day, confirming a break out lower on falling, but still "big", for us, volume. Today one of our "outliers", based on size misdirects us by closing above the line with a 100K sell at $0.106. The next lower priced large trade was 89K at $0.104, below the line. Regardless of these two trades, which represented ~56% of the day's volume, our VWAP fell as volume fell.
So I don't believe this "bullish" sign, especially because the 100K was taken by ATDF at a time when ETRF was battling them with it's own 100K bid. They walked each other up in the last halfhour of the day.
As long as VWAP declines I'm sticking to my belief that the $0.10x area won't be that strong a support (yet to be seen) and that low $0.09x seems to be a potential stronger support area.
Looking at today's stuff ...
For those noting the extremely low short sales percentage, this is not unexpected and not out of line with past behavior. The key is large volume, especially over multiple days, with wide spreads and then falling volume. Because of the mechanics of marketmakers and the spread offering opportunities for covering buys to neutralize their intraday short sales, they come into days like today with temporary long positions at low prices. These are then sold into the market without generating a short sale. Check the area around volume spikes on the one year summary chart posted 2/25/13 and oneyear summary chart posted 8/31/13.
There's two potential outliers based on price. One is two buys at $0.10 of 10K and 1.25K shares, which is 2.91% below the next higherpriced trade, one $0.1030 for 10K shares and several other trades in the $0.13x range for 19K more. The other pricebased outlier was the high of the day, $0.1087 for 10K shares that was 2.55% above the next lower price of $0.1060. This later price was within the trend as seven trades in the $0.1050$0.1059 range totaling 38.4K shares were the next lower prices.
If one wants to consider the larger trend, the low and high of $0.1030 and $0.1060, respectively, would be reasonable.
In terms of size, we had one set of outliers, sells of 89K @ $0.1040 and 100K @ $0.1060, the last trade of the day. These two trades were outliers because there were no other larger trades. They were 55.55% of day's volume. The 100K was the last trade of the day and was taken by ATDF while battling a 100K bid from ETRF near EOD. Since ATDF was also on the sell side at the time (and best on both sides almost all day) and daily shorts were only 7.1K, I presume this was an internal trade of some kind. I'm guessing the same for the 89K sell since ATDF was best on both sides at that time too.
These two trades were not outliers pricewise.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.50%, 7.01%, 00.42%, 66.00% and 84.60% respectively. Price spread today was 8.70% vs. 16.32%, 25.74% (23.76% if $0.1250 used as high), 20.82%, 6.22%, 2.31%, 2.69%, 6.08%, 5.11% and 17.35% (thanks to the two $0.1193 trades) on prior days.
If $0.1030 and $0.1060 are respectively used as the high and low, movements for the day become 2.49% for the low, 9.32% for the high and spread would be 2.91%.
In the traditional TA area, RSI made a minuscule improvement, while remaining in oversold territory, going from 23.07 to 24.54. MFI remained oversold also and also made a small improvement from~7.45 to 7.56. Momentum went from ~0.746 to ~0.757. All the other oscillators I watch behaved similarly. One does need to keep in mind that many oscillators factor in closing price and without the outlier 100K sell at $0.1060 as the last trade, most oscillators would likely have declined or stayed flat.
Two misdirections appears on traditional bar charts today. Due to the 100K sell at $0.1060 we see a higher close than yesterday's $0.1049. But note that even with the 100K $0.1060 and 89K $0.1040 sells the VWAP dropped 00.42%. If we use the 89K sell as the real close, we are still lower.
Even if we act like traditional TA folks would, that higher close would be suspect because of the severe volume falloff, from ~1.641MM, ~2.102MM, 1.001MM and today's ~0.340MM. This could be read as part of a bottoming process. That's only confirmed when price and volume start moving up moreorless together. Until then, only weakness in the higher close is suggested.
This is supported by the fourth consecutive day of lower highs and lows. It's contradicted by the close above the shortterm descending channel's support.
That's the second misdirection. If we discount the single 100K outlier, it closed below.
We again traded mostly below the stillfalling Bollinger lower limit, now showing $0.1053 vs. $0.1098, $0.1155, $0.1226 and $0.1278 on prior days. The upper limit, still going higher as would be expected with increased price volatility, is reading $0.1606 vs. $0.1596, $0.1574, $0.1549 and $0.1532 on prior days.
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs again all continued down. Today the averages are $0.1137, $0.1233, $0.1358 and $0.1474, down from yesterday's $0.1191, $0.1269, $0.1376 and $0.1487. The 100day average continued falling too. Starting with Friday, 7/18, we have $0.1530, $0.1534, $0.1537, $0.1541, $0.1544, $0.1546, $0.1546, $0.1542 and $0.1534 today.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 2 of the 27 trades, 7.41%. These 189,000 shares were 55.55% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1051. 0 of the larger trades, 0%, were buys of 0 shares, 0% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0. 2 of the larger trades, 100.00%, were sells of 189,000 shares, 100.00% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1051.
The other 25 trades, 92.59% of the day's trades, traded 151,206 shares, 44.45% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1042. 8 trades, 32.00%, were buys and accounted for 41,400 shares, 27.38% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1044. 17 trades, 68.00%, were sells and accounted for 109,806 shares, 72.62% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1041.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note that 100K $0.1060 sell is in the last period and the 89K sell is in the period ending at 15:22.
09:3009:30: 011250 shrs, 03.31% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 000.0% buys
10:1510:33: 051506 shrs, 15.14% of vol, VWAP $0.1040, 009.5% buys
10:5412:36: 029000 shrs, 08.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1032, 058.6% buys
12:4915:22: 100050 shrs, 29.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1040, 000.0% buys
15:2615:44: 038400 shrs, 11.29% of vol, VWAP $0.1062, 050.8% buys
15:5815:59: 110000 shrs, 32.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1059, 000.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note that the $0.1040 range includes the 89K sell and the $0.160 range includes the 100K sell.
$0.1000$0.1000: 011250 shrs, 03.31% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 000.0% buys
$0.1030$0.1035: 029000 shrs, 08.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1032, 058.6% buys
$0.1040$0.1059: 189956 shrs, 55.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1043, 012.8% buys
$0.1060$0.1087: 110000 shrs, 32.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1062, 000.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/15 $0.1399 00.51% 51.0%
07/16 $0.1398 00.09% 28.9%
07/17 $0.1353 10.50% 24.9%
07/18 $0.1344 00.60% 64.9%
07/21 $0.1318 01.94% 34.4%
07/22 $0.1315 00.26% 50.6%
07/23 $0.1317 +00.16% 62.0%
07/24 $0.1297 01.48% 49.1%
07/25 $0.1178 09.19% 23.8%
07/28 $0.1113 05.51% 30.0%
07/29 $0.1051 05.60% 45.7%
07/30 $0.1047 00.42% 12.2%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume fell back to a more normal, for us, range. Yesterday I said the trend over multiple days is more clear  no strength being suggested. Today reinforces that assessment. Even with reduced volume having reduce effect on the calculations, all six periods weakened.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
034.35 0086.59 0355.65 0678.28 01893.01 06393.67
039.07 0107.82 0364.54 0727.31 02092.50 07044.45
015.30 0086.32 0344.92 0641.01 02021.59 06782.83
054.16 0081.33 0378.70 0704.36 02177.30 07014.61
052.40 0075.51 0357.46 0644.63 02037.68 06679.46
018.40 0053.47 0308.37 0554.64 01849.94 06254.12
011.84 0048.89 0313.49 0542.03 01873.47 06304.63
108.47 0135.29 0468.19 0737.60 02900.85 08684.19
212.09 0286.96 0610.67 0950.02 03358.38 09626.50
134.82 0171.43 0372.29 0494.57 01149.54 04728.89
258.75 0295.48 0561.16 0900.25 03010.39 09172.28
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/29/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 69, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 345900, Vol: 1000682, AvTrSz: 14503
Min. Pr: 0.1005, Max Pr: 0.1169, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1051
# Buys, Shares: 22 457049, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1033
# Sells, Shares: 47 543633, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1066
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.19 (45.67% "buys"), DlyShts 46100 (04.61%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 8.48%
We now have a fourth touchpoint a potential descending support on a shortterm descending trading channel. So now it's validated. Unfortunately, we closed below it for the second consecutive day, confirming a break out lower on falling, but still "big", for us, volume. There's no traditional TA indications that the move lower is ending. Yesterday I noted "... We need to close above ~$0.1055 just to stay within the descending channel and ride that support down". Today's behavior says that falling line should now become resistance.
Although some think the today demonstrated strong support at $0.10, I see exactly the opposite. I'm thinking the large willing buyers in this price range are near exhausted and VWAP will continue lower.
I tried yesterday to counter that day's bearish POV with a positive "spin". The primary possibilities revolved around volume "spikes" that might suggest an end of trend was reached or very near. Also the "psychological attractiveness" of a $0.10 price could come into play. The second factor looks valid but the first factor looks totally bogus for now.
I'm sticking to my belief that the $0.10x area won't be that strong a support (yet to be seen) and that low $0.09x seems to be a potential stronger support area.
Looking at today's stuff ...
There's three potential outliers based on price. One is two buys of 1.8K and 2.5K shares at $0.1169, which is 2.10% above the next lowerpriced trade, only one, of $0.1145 for 5K shares. If we consider the $0.1145 also an outlier the $0.1169 is 2.54% above the next lower price with multiple trades and volume, $0.1140 with two buys and one sell (80K). The third was for 345.9K and is detailed next.
In terms of size, we had a few outliers compared to our norms. The biggest one was a "buy" at $0.1010 of 345.9K shares for which no bid or ask was seen. ATDF was on both sides at the time, so I suspect this was an "inhouse" trade for which the MM was establishing a position all day. The trade went off at 15:34. There was an offer that I think was involved. This is described in a comment in the APC. Briefly, around noon ATDF put in an offer of 408.8K at $0.103, which I think was partly sold off and/or reduced throughout the day until ~355K with a reduced $0.101 offer was left. We also saw a 100K sell at 15:31 (part of that 408.8K?) for $0.103 and an 80K sell at $0.114.
Only the 345.9K "buy" was an outlier in price because only two trades went at that price and only one trade lower, $0.1005 for 10K. The other two were reasonably close to the day's VWAP of $0.1051.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.50%, 7.95%, 05.60%, 52.39% and 90.31% respectively. Price spread today was 16.32% vs. 25.74% (23.76% if $0.1250 used as high), 20.82%, 6.22%, 2.31%, 2.69%, 6.08%, 5.11%, 17.35% (thanks to the two $0.1193 trades) and 12.53% on prior days.
In the traditional TA area, all the oscillators I watch reduced their rate of weakening but continued weakening.
We traded mostly below the stillfalling Bollinger lower limit, now showing $0.1098 vs. $0.1155, $0.1226, $0.1278 and $0.1287 on prior days. The upper limit going higher, as would be expected with increased price volatility, is reading $0.1596 vs. $0.1574, $0.1549, $0.1532 and $0.1547 on prior days.
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs again all continued down. Today the averages are $0.1191, $0.1269, $0.1376 and $0.1487, down from yesterday's $0.1244, $0.1303, $0.1394 and $0.1499. The 100day average, which flattened yesterday, returned to dropping. Starting with Friday, 7/18, we have $0.1530, $0.1534, $0.1537, $0.1541, $0.1544, $0.1546, $0.1546 and $0.1542 today.
NOTE! Keep in mind the larger trades comments in the "outliers" discussion above.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 11 of the 69 trades, 15.94%. These 703,700 shares were 70.32% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1044. 3 of the larger trades, 27.27%, were buys of 385,900 shares, 54.84% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1021. 8 of the larger trades, 72.73%, were sells of 317,800 shares, 45.16% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1072.
The other 58 trades, 84.06% of the day's trades, traded 296,982 shares, 29.68% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1067. 19 trades, 32.76%, were buys and accounted for 71,149 shares, 23.96% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1098. 39 trades, 67.24%, were sells and accounted for 225,833 shares, 76.04% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1058.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:30: 004451 shrs, 00.44% of vol, VWAP $0.1030, 000.0% buys
09:4210:13: 061582 shrs, 06.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1100, 029.9% buys
10:1711:30: 030300 shrs, 03.03% of vol, VWAP $0.1136, 017.5% buys
11:3412:03: 168100 shrs, 16.80% of vol, VWAP $0.1132, 035.8% buys
12:2112:51: 044000 shrs, 04.40% of vol, VWAP $0.1063, 009.1% buys
12:5913:13: 107000 shrs, 10.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1040, 000.0% buys
13:3714:56: 012349 shrs, 01.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1060, 100.0% buys
15:1015:30: 052100 shrs, 05.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1040, 002.1% buys
15:3115:31: 144900 shrs, 14.48% of vol, VWAP $0.1028, 003.4% buys
15:3415:34: 360900 shrs, 36.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1010, 095.8% buys
15:4915:49: 015000 shrs, 01.50% of vol, VWAP $0.1049, 033.3% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1005$0.1030: 505251 shrs, 50.49% of vol, VWAP $0.1015, 069.4% buys
$0.1030$0.1055: 222000 shrs, 22.18% of vol, VWAP $0.1043, 005.0% buys
$0.1060$0.1089: 013349 shrs, 01.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1062, 100.0% buys
$0.1095$0.1100: 058582 shrs, 05.85% of vol, VWAP $0.1099, 036.5% buys
$0.1120$0.1145: 202100 shrs, 20.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1132, 030.2% buys
$0.1169$0.1169: 004300 shrs, 00.43% of vol, VWAP $0.1169, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/14 $0.1406 00.37% 91.4%
07/15 $0.1399 00.51% 51.0%
07/16 $0.1398 00.09% 28.9%
07/17 $0.1353 10.50% 24.9%
07/18 $0.1344 00.60% 64.9%
07/21 $0.1318 01.94% 34.4%
07/22 $0.1315 00.26% 50.6%
07/23 $0.1317 +00.16% 62.0%
07/24 $0.1297 01.48% 49.1%
07/25 $0.1178 09.19% 23.8%
07/28 $0.1113 05.51% 30.0%
07/29 $0.1051 05.60% 45.7%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume was again big today. Talk about "noise" in our metrics, today is split with three improved and three worsened after yesterday's all improved. But the trend over multiple days is more clear  no strength being suggested.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
021.38 0085.63 0343.98 0679.05 01908.65 06503.63
034.35 0086.59 0355.65 0678.28 01893.01 06393.67
039.07 0107.82 0364.54 0727.31 02092.50 07044.45
015.30 0086.32 0344.92 0641.01 02021.59 06782.83
054.16 0081.33 0378.70 0704.36 02177.30 07014.61
052.40 0075.51 0357.46 0644.63 02037.68 06679.46
018.40 0053.47 0308.37 0554.64 01849.94 06254.12
011.84 0048.89 0313.49 0542.03 01873.47 06304.63
108.47 0135.29 0468.19 0737.60 02900.85 08684.19
212.09 0286.96 0610.67 0950.02 03358.38 09626.50
134.82 0171.43 0372.29 0494.57 01149.54 04728.89
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/28/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 93, MinTrSz: 66, MaxTrSz: 290000, Vol: 2101933, AvTrSz: 22601
Min. Pr: 0.1010, Max Pr: 0.1270, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1113
# Buys, Shares: 46 630533, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1148
# Sells, Shares: 46 1461400, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1099
# Unkn, Shares: 1 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1070
Buy:Sell 1:2.32 (30.00% "buys"), DlyShts 475523 (22.61%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 32.52%
Yesterday I mentioned a third touchpoint occurred on a potential descending support on a shortterm descending trading channel. I also didn't know if it was valid because of the trades of $0.1193 (outliers) on 7/17 though. I didn't know whether to consider that we have an origin and two touches or not, the minimum needed to consider such a line potentially valid.
That ambiguity is now resolved. Regardless of 7/17, we have a second touch yesterday and third touch today. Unfortunately today decided to drop and close below the line. We need to close above ~$0.1055 just to stay within the descending channel and ride that support down.
I had said if we are within a channel, we should see a rebound towards at least the midrange of the channel, about $0.121. Or if we do a "reversion to the mean" we could see $0.135, just above the descending resistance (then) at ~$0.133 and the 200day SMA of $0.1321. I said I didn't expect we'd go that far without a catalyst though.
Today resolved all those "ifs" with a resounding bearish move on rising (even further) volume with a lower high, low and close. The close was below the descending support and the low represents the first test of my prior statement that $0.10 didn't seem likely to offer strong support.
I'll try and counter that POV with a positive "spin" next.
I said yesterday " ... volume qualifies as a "spike", being both ~5 times yesterday's and ~7 times the 10day volume average ... often signals the end of a trend, ... down beginning 6/30/14 ... combined with the newlyanointed "iffy" descending support argues for a rebound here. Our nearterm targets should be one of the two described above".
A second day of even "spikier" volume might make the end of this trend more likely. Why? Because the shortterm potential sellers may have been flushed by an aggregate ~3.75MM (or 1/2 that if you believe every trade is doublecounted, otherwise somewhere between) in just two days. Maybe because many will find $0.10x an attractive buy price and overwhelm any remaining sellers. All the oscillators I watch entered oversold today. Lots of folks believe this means a move up will come shortly.
OK. That's the best I can do for a bullish spin on today's behavior.
Fortunately, from a facesaving perspective, yesterday I also said "If we break below the descending channel ..." and went on to discuss how I believed the $0.10x area wouldn't be that strong a support (yet to be seen) and that low $0.09x seemed to be a potential stronger support area. I won't repeat it all  it's in yesterday's post.
Looking at today's stuff ...
Today MM BKMM was again on the bid, but today for 100K (instead of yesterday's 10K) at $0.108 (vs. $0.1151) at 13:48. They struck pay dirt at 100K @ $0.108 was sold from 13:54 to 14:38.
Today the only outliers, based on price, were buys of1000 shares at $0.1268 and 700 shares at $0.1270. The next price down, $0.1250, had several trades and good volume.
In terms of size, we had a lot of outliers compared to our norms. E.g., the four largest trades totaled 902.5K (175K, 187.5K  the only buy, 250K and 290K) and the next 10 largest (>= 40K) accounted for ~564K. 6/23  7/24 average largest trade size is 46,621, including eight days with substantially larger than normal maximum trade sizes. Excluding those eight days (larger than 55K) yields ~30.5K.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 8.18%, 4.44% (5.94% if $0.1250 used as high), 05.51%, 28.09% and 0.60% respectively. Price spread today was 25.74% (23.76% if $0.1250 used as high) vs. 20.82%, 6.22%, 2.31%, 2.69%, 6.08%, 5.11%, 17.35% (thanks to the two $0.1193 trades), 12.53% and 10.13% on prior days.
In the traditional TA area, all the oscillators I watch took a big dive, expected after to highvolume down days, into oversold. Those without oversold markers, like ADX, momentum, ... just took nasty dives to very low levels.
If we drop the two price outliers, we traded completely below the stillfalling Bollinger lower limit, now showing $0.1155 vs. $0.1226, $0.1278, $0.1287 and $0.1298 on prior days. The upper limit going higher, as would be expected with increased price volatility, reading $0.1574 vs. $0.1549, $0.1532, $0.1547 and $0.1554 on prior days.
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs again all continued down. Today the averages are $0.1244, $0.1303, $0.1394 and $0.1499, down from yesterday's $0.1285, $0.1333, $0.1411 and $0.1510. The 100day average, which joined in on 7/21, had managed a small bump up yesterday. Today it flattened. Starting with Friday, 7/18, we have $0.1530, $0.1534, $0.1537, $0.1541, $0.1544, $0.1546 and $0.1546 today.
NOTE! The larger trades comments in the "outliers" discussion above.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 28 of the 93 trades, 30.11%. These 1,126,573 shares were 68.65% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1121. 8 of the larger trades, 28.57%, were buys of 495,066 shares, 27.25% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1157. 20 of the larger trades, 71.43%, were sells of 1,321,549 shares, 72.75% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1108.
The other 65 trades, 69.89% of the day's trades, traded 285,318 shares, 13.57% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1064. 38 trades, 58.46%, were buys and accounted for 135,467 shares, 47.48% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1115. 26 trades, 40.00%, were sells and accounted for 139,851 shares, 49.02% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1014.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the period ending 10:54 includes a 187.5K buy @ $0.12. Period ending 11:17 includes a sell of 175K @ $0.125. 11:18 is only the 250K @ $0.115 sell. Ending 15:56 includes the 290K @ $0.101 sell.
09:3010:02: 037000 shrs, 01.76% of vol, VWAP $0.1173, 023.0% buys
10:2110:54: 322427 shrs, 15.34% of vol, VWAP $0.1201, 100.0% buys
11:1411:17: 175700 shrs, 08.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1250, 000.4% buys
11:1811:18: 250000 shrs, 11.89% of vol, VWAP $0.1150, 000.0% buys
11:2111:35: 114166 shrs, 05.43% of vol, VWAP $0.1162, 000.9% buys
11:4211:45: 101934 shrs, 04.85% of vol, VWAP $0.1100, 066.9% buys
11:5912:49: 024282 shrs, 01.16% of vol, VWAP $0.1126, 087.6% buys
12:5513:36: 266239 shrs, 12.67% of vol, VWAP $0.1104, 024.5% buys
13:3714:41: 332500 shrs, 15.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1045, 032.3% buys
15:0015:44: 119185 shrs, 05.67% of vol, VWAP $0.1053, 005.9% buys
15:5015:56: 358500 shrs, 17.06% of vol, VWAP $0.1014, 007.9% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the first entry the 290K @ $0.101 sell. The $0.108 ending range includes a 94K @ $0.1080 sell. Range ending at $0.1176 includes a 250K @ $0.1150 sell. The range ending at $0.12 includes a 187.5K @ $0.12 sell and the range ending at $0.1270 includes a 175K @ $0.1250 sell.
$0.1010$0.1020: 335000 shrs, 15.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1011, 000.0% buys
$0.1039$0.1055: 198185 shrs, 09.43% of vol, VWAP $0.0995, 033.3% buys
$0.1070$0.1080: 200000 shrs, 09.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1080, 000.0% buys
$0.1098$0.1110: 448083 shrs, 21.32% of vol, VWAP $0.1102, 047.0% buys
$0.1129$0.1149: 021372 shrs, 01.02% of vol, VWAP $0.1129, 100.0% buys
$0.1150$0.1176: 391666 shrs, 18.63% of vol, VWAP $0.1155, 000.0% buys
$0.1190$0.1200: 326677 shrs, 15.54% of vol, VWAP $0.1200, 100.0% buys
$0.1250$0.1270: 180950 shrs, 08.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1250, 003.3% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/11 $0.1412 01.00% 21.4%
07/14 $0.1406 00.37% 91.4%
07/15 $0.1399 00.51% 51.0%
07/16 $0.1398 00.09% 28.9%
07/17 $0.1353 10.50% 24.9%
07/18 $0.1344 00.60% 64.9%
07/21 $0.1318 01.94% 34.4%
07/22 $0.1315 00.26% 50.6%
07/23 $0.1317 +00.16% 62.0%
07/24 $0.1297 01.48% 49.1%
07/25 $0.1178 09.19% 23.8%
07/28 $0.1113 05.51% 30.0%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume was again big today. I expected a big falloff in volume and still wanted to see a trend of more consistent, and significant for us, volume. I'm not sure how to evaluate today's volume, but it seems the trend may be getting established. We have the second consecutive day of predominately "big" moves lower. I'm guessing that volume will move to more normal range and the trend lower in these calculations will flatten a bit.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
022.66 0152.87 0307.35 0625.26 01893.73 06289.09
021.38 0085.63 0343.98 0679.05 01908.65 06503.63
034.35 0086.59 0355.65 0678.28 01893.01 06393.67
039.07 0107.82 0364.54 0727.31 02092.50 07044.45
015.30 0086.32 0344.92 0641.01 02021.59 06782.83
054.16 0081.33 0378.70 0704.36 02177.30 07014.61
052.40 0075.51 0357.46 0644.63 02037.68 06679.46
018.40 0053.47 0308.37 0554.64 01849.94 06254.12
011.84 0048.89 0313.49 0542.03 01873.47 06304.63
108.47 0135.29 0468.19 0737.60 02900.85 08684.19
212.09 0286.96 0610.67 0950.02 03358.38 09626.50
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/25/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 108, MinTrSz: 12, MaxTrSz: 400000, Vol: 1640998, AvTrSz: 15194
Min. Pr: 0.1100, Max Pr: 0.1329, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1178
# Buys, Shares: 48 390361, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1194
# Sells, Shares: 59 850637, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1184
# Unkn, Shares: 1 400000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.1150
Buy:Sell 1:2.18 (23.79% "buys"), DlyShts 472689 (28.80%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 55.57%
Well, today gave me a third touchpoint on a potential descending support on a shortterm descending trading channel. It's origin is the low of 6/30 ($0.1401) and has a touch at the lows of 7/17 ($0.1193) and today ($0.11). Recall that the 7/17 low was established with two "outlier" trades of $0.1193 though. Without them our low would have been $0.1335 IIRC. So I don't know whether to consider that we have an origin and two touches or not, the minimum needed to consider such a line potentially valid.
Anyway, it fell about 16/100ths of a penny a day, or ~1.19%/day. If we are indeed within a channel, we should see a rebound towards at least the midrange of the channel, about $0.121. If we do a "reversion to the mean" of the latest down leg we could see $0.135, just above the descending resistance today at ~$0.133 and the 200day SMA of $0.1321. I don't expect we'd go that far without a catalyst though.
Today's volume qualifies as a "spike", being both ~5 times yesterday's and ~7 times the 10day volume average. Such a spike often signals the end of a trend, in this case down beginning 6/30/14. That combined with the newlyanointed "iffy" descending support argues for a rebound here. Our nearterm targets should be one of the two described above.
If our trading range hangs in around the $0.125 area, the 200day SMA will cease rising and go flat in about four days. The 50day, which had been trying to go flat, began a slow deterioration on 7/21 and continues that trend. It would accelerate a bit in a few days if trading range stayed around $0.125.
If we break below the descending channel ...
We've got an old potential support around $0.10 from the 10/8/1310/10/13 period. It was just a low in an extended downtrend that saw a brief (about 3.5 weeks) rebound, with good supporting volume through ~10/16/13, followed by a continuation of the down trend. For that latter reason, the good volume notwithstanding, I can't say it would be strong support. A stronger one might be in the low $0.09x area.
The low $0.9x area had two instances of demonstrated support that extended across multiple days. The first occurrence, 1/23/141/31/14, resulted in a brief rise into the low $0.12xx range before price began collapsing again. It was on good volume, for the period. The second occurrence, 2/20/142/25/14, had good volume, was followed by a rise to lows of ~$0.095 and highs up to ~$0.12 2/26/143/4/14, and then "popped" to as high as $0.23 on 3/10/14. The "pop" was on very good volume for the time and resulted in a sideways trading range until 4/3. Then another brief move up to a $0.18$0.20 range for six days was followed by the beginning of our current long slow grind down.
Moving on to a recounting of today's stuff ...
There was one aftermarket trade of 400K shares that FINRAreported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,240,998 to 1,640,998 and would lower the short percentage from 38.09% to 28.80%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 472,677 to 872,677 and the short percentage would be 53.18%.
Yesterday and today had a couple MMs not normally seen. Yesterday it was GUGS, premarket and on, with a 100K offer at $0.13 and today it was BKMM on the bid for 10K at $0.1151 at 14:39.
We had a few outliers today. One was a single sell of 5K shares at $0.1100. The next higher price seen was $0.1150 for ~704K, including 400K and 250K sells, followed by ~118K at $0.1151. At the other end of the spectrum, we had a 500 share buy for $0.1329 at 11:37. The next lower price was a single buy of 4,002 shares for $0.1319 at 12:08. The next higher price had some volume of trades, both buys and sells, for $0.1300.
Using $0.1150 and $0.1300 for the day's low and high, respectively, would be reasonable for examining the days results without the low and high price outliers.
Two other outliers were such only because of size. Both were sells for $0.1150. One was 250K at 14:16 and the other was 400K at 16:00:47 (an afterhours trade not included in FINRA Reg SHO daily short sales totals). Since another five trades for ~59K traded at this price I see no reason to examine the effects of removing the two larger trades.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 13.39%, 1.48%, 09.19%, 358.62% and 170.73% respectively. Price spread today was 20.82% vs. 6.22%, 2.31%, 2.69%, 6.08%, 5.11%, 17.35% (thanks to the two $0.1193 trades), 12.53%, 10.13% and 3.37% on prior days.
Using $0.1150 and $0.1300 for the day's low and high, ignoring the outlier low and highs mentioned above, makes movement of the low and high 9.45% and 3.63% instead of 13.39% and 1.48%. Price spread would be 13.04% instead of 20.82%.
In the traditional TA area, yesterday I noted we made our first approach to the anticipated support at $0.125, getting down to $0.127. I then said "... I thought this might be stronger support than the $0.135, which helped ... before being broken, but then I began to have doubts about $0.125. I still have those doubts".
I also said "Today's higher volume suggests that a bit more weight should be given to the oscillators I normally watch. But volume has been volatile ... Anyway, all oscillators except Williams %R and full stochastic had very small moves down".
I think I blew this one by not giving enough weight to what the oscillators were suggesting. When combined with the longterm descending highs, lows, VWAP (not traditional TA), resistance, moving averages, and Bollingers, and adding in the shortterm versions of all those things, it would have been reasonable to just flatout make a call for going lower.
But we are entering the time of the month when price has, in the "recent" past, flattened or even risen some. This has been occurring in the last and first weeks of each month for quite some time, including the last week of June and first week of July. I had been wondering if it would hold now that I was fairly sure the PIPErs were out a couple of months now. But I had no prior periods against which this could be compared because rumors of KIA, the RSrelated stuff entered the picture, NS999 in and out of the paint shop with batteries installed, ...
I also missed a "Spinning Top" candlestick, indicating indecision, that opened below, traded mostly below, and closed below the 200day SMA. The two prior days had traded with highs above and lows below it and included one close below it.
This could have been enough to sway me if I had noticed it. I don't know.
The Bollinger lower limit continues to drop, showing $0.1226 vs. $0.1278, $0.1287, $0.1298 and $0.1314 on prior days. The upper limit broke the trend of going lower today by making an up tick, reading $0.1549 vs. $0.1532, $0.1547, $0.1554 and $0.1559 on prior days.
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs again all continued down. Today the averages are $0.1285, $0.1333, $0.1411 and $0.1510. The 100day average, which joined in on 7/21, again managed a small bump up today. Don't ask me how, but I had picked up some $0.28/$0.29 prices in the first four entries. I've corrected those today. Starting with Friday, 7/18, we have $0.1530, $0.1534, $0.1537, $0.1541, $0.1544 and $0.1546 today.
NOTE! The larger trades values were affected by a 250K sell for $0.1150 at 14:16 and a single 400K AH trade for $0.1150. The latter trade is classified as unknown although I believe it was likely a sell along with all the other $0.1150 trades, but for one 5K buy.
I suspect it was just an MM completing a sell order after spending the day shorting in preparation for completing the order and the AH trade was the completion of it. This would be a certain situation wherein JP's "double count" would apply and our true volume was at least 400K, and maybe 650K, lower than what we see. It's likely the 250K trade was part of that too. Needless to say, things would look different sans that AH trade (and the 250K trade?) and if I'm right about why we saw it (them?) things might have looked much better for the whole day.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 16 of the 108 trades, 14.81%. These 1,126,573 shares were 68.65% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1170. 5 of the larger trades, 31.25%, were buys of 182,000 shares, 16.16% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1193. 10 of the larger trades, 62.50%, were sells of 544,573 shares, 48.34% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1270. 1 of the larger trades, 6.25%, was an unknown representing 400,000 shares, 35.51% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1150.
The other 92 trades, 85.19% of the day's trades, traded 514,425 shares, 31.35% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1197. 43 trades, 46.74%, were buys and accounted for 208,361 shares, 40.50% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1194. 49 trades, 53.26%, were sells and accounted for 306,064 shares, 59.50% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1199.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the 14:1114:36 entry includes the 250K sell at 14:16 for $0.1150 and the last entry is only the 400K AH trade for that same price.
09:4512:11: 051902 shrs, 03.16% of vol, VWAP $0.1289, 008.7% buys
12:1413:18: 061300 shrs, 03.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1300, 067.4% buys
13:2013:25: 066854 shrs, 04.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1252, 005.8% buys
13:4714:02: 191812 shrs, 11.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1207, 043.6% buys
14:1114:36: 394357 shrs, 24.03% of vol, VWAP $0.1160, 009.0% buys
14:4315:05: 281400 shrs, 17.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1171, 038.0% buys
15:1715:49: 066923 shrs, 04.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1184, 047.0% buys
15:5115:59: 126450 shrs, 07.71% of vol, VWAP $0.1151, 065.6% buys
16:0016:00: 400000 shrs, 24.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1150, 000.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the second entry includes the 250K and 400K sells for $0.1150 at 14:16 and AH respectively.
$0.1100$0.1100: 005000 shrs, 00.30% of vol, VWAP $0.1100, 000.0% buys
$0.1150$0.1150: 704137 shrs, 42.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1150, 000.7% buys
$0.1151$0.1166: 245500 shrs, 14.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1156, 031.8% buys
$0.1170$0.1185: 167400 shrs, 10.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1174, 063.9% buys
$0.1190$0.1200: 288905 shrs, 17.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1199, 052.0% buys
$0.1220$0.1221: 039500 shrs, 02.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1220, 000.0% buys
$0.1240$0.1250: 052504 shrs, 03.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1242, 008.3% buys
$0.1270$0.1281: 044250 shrs, 02.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1276, 000.0% buys
$0.1290$0.1300: 089300 shrs, 05.44% of vol, VWAP $0.1297, 046.2% buys
$0.1319$0.1329: 004502 shrs, 00.27% of vol, VWAP $0.1320, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/10 $0.1426 02.10% 16.8%
07/11 $0.1412 01.00% 21.4%
07/14 $0.1406 00.37% 91.4%
07/15 $0.1399 00.51% 51.0%
07/16 $0.1398 00.09% 28.9%
07/17 $0.1353 10.50% 24.9%
07/18 $0.1344 00.60% 64.9%
07/21 $0.1318 01.94% 34.4%
07/22 $0.1315 00.26% 50.6%
07/23 $0.1317 +00.16% 62.0%
07/24 $0.1297 01.48% 49.1%
07/25 $0.1178 09.19% 23.8%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume was big today. I expect a big falloff in volume now and still want to see a trend of more consistent, and significant for us, volume. So even though the numbers below have big negative moves, sans the reasonable volume in a trend I still abstain from trying to read these tea leaves.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
066.14 0170.92 0317.77 0683.09 01914.60 06285.66
022.66 0152.87 0307.35 0625.26 01893.73 06289.09
021.38 0085.63 0343.98 0679.05 01908.65 06503.63
034.35 0086.59 0355.65 0678.28 01893.01 06393.67
039.07 0107.82 0364.54 0727.31 02092.50 07044.45
015.30 0086.32 0344.92 0641.01 02021.59 06782.83
054.16 0081.33 0378.70 0704.36 02177.30 07014.61
052.40 0075.51 0357.46 0644.63 02037.68 06679.46
018.40 0053.47 0308.37 0554.64 01849.94 06254.12
011.84 0048.89 0313.49 0542.03 01873.47 06304.63
108.47 0135.29 0468.19 0737.60 02900.85 08684.19
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/24/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 35, MinTrSz: 850, MaxTrSz: 75000, Vol: 357810, AvTrSz: 10223
Min. Pr: 0.1270, Max Pr: 0.1349, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1297
# Buys, Shares: 8 175600, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1301
# Sells, Shares: 27 182210, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1294
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.04 (49.08% "buys"), DlyShts 174600 (48.80%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 95.82%
We had two outliers today. One was a single buy of 2K shares at $0.1349. The next lower price seen was $0.1331 for 9K and it was close to similar trades with volume of $0.1330, $0.1320, ... The other was an outlier only because of it's size. It was a single buy of 60K at $0.13, a tenth below midrange for the day.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.31%, 1.43%, 01.48%, 258.28% and 298.91% respectively. Price spread today was 6.22% vs. 2.31%, 2.69%, 6.08%, 5.11%, 17.35% (thanks to the two $0.1193 trades), 12.53%, 10.13%, 3.37% and 3.88% on prior days.
Discounting the $0.1349 outlier and using the $0.1331 as the day's high would yield movements of 0.08% for the high and 4.80% for the spread.
In the traditional TA area, we made our first approach to the anticipated support at $0.125, getting down to $0.127. A short while back I thought this might be stronger support than the $0.135, which helped out for seven days before being broken, but then I began to have doubts about $0.125. I still have those doubts.
Today's higher volume suggests that a bit more weight should be given to the oscillators I normally watch. But volume has been volatile and we could easily drop to very low volume again at any time. Anyway, all oscillators except Williams %R and full stochastic had very small moves down.
The Bollinger lower limit continues to drop, showing $0.1278 vs. $0.1287, $0.1298 and $0.1314 on prior days. The upper limit continued lower today, reading $0.1532 vs. $0.1547, $0.1554 and $0.1559 on prior days.
For the second consecutive day we traded mostly below the rising 200day SMA, $0.1321 today, but didn't manage to close above it like we did yesterday. We closed at $0.13, which was the last and largest trade of the day, a buy of 60K at 13:46.
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs again all continued down. Today the averages are $0.1318, $0.1356, $0.1425 and $0.1521. The 100day average, which joined in on 7/21, managed a small bump up today. Starting with Friday, 7/18, we have $0.2900, $0.2883, $0.2862, $0.2827 and $0.1544 today.
No "fishing" was noted today.
Short percentage misbehaved a bit today  buy percentage down from yesterday's 62% to 49.1% and daily short percentage moved from yesterday's 43.83% up to 48.8% today. Small variations in magnitude from the normal are not unusual in the choppy leg after coming off extremes as we vacillate towards more normal ranges. This is easily seen on the chart. I suspect the variation was the buy of 60K  this would represent almost 1/3rd of the day's short volume and would skew the percentage substantially higher.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 4 of the 35 trades, 11.43%. These 170,000 shares were 47.51% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1297. 3 of the larger trades, 75.00%, were buys of 155,000 shares, 91.18% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1300. 1 of the larger trades, 25.00%, was a sell of 15,000 shares, 8.82% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1270.
The other 31 trades, 88.57% of the day's trades, traded 187,810 shares, 52.49% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1298. 5 trades, 16.13%, were buys and accounted for 20,600 shares, 10.97% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1310. 26 trades, 83.87%, were sells and accounted for 167,210 shares, 89.03% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1296.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the last entry is only the 60K $0.13 buy.
09:3009:52: 132600 shrs, 37.06% of vol, VWAP $0.1304, 085.7% buys
10:2510:26: 012000 shrs, 03.35% of vol, VWAP $0.1321, 016.7% buys
12:0313:05: 026210 shrs, 07.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1301, 000.0% buys
13:1113:42: 127000 shrs, 35.49% of vol, VWAP $0.1286, 000.0% buys
13:4613:46: 060000 shrs, 16.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1300, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the second entry includes the 60K $0.13 buy.
$0.1270$0.1287: 089300 shrs, 24.96% of vol, VWAP $0.1281, 000.0% buys
$0.1290$0.1301: 235210 shrs, 65.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1300, 072.2% buys
$0.1320$0.1331: 031300 shrs, 08.75% of vol, VWAP $0.1324, 012.1% buys
$0.1349$0.1349: 002000 shrs, 00.56% of vol, VWAP $0.1349, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/09 $0.1456 +01.80% 36.2%
07/10 $0.1426 02.10% 16.8%
07/11 $0.1412 01.00% 21.4%
07/14 $0.1406 00.37% 91.4%
07/15 $0.1399 00.51% 51.0%
07/16 $0.1398 00.09% 28.9%
07/17 $0.1353 10.50% 24.9%
07/18 $0.1344 00.60% 64.9%
07/21 $0.1318 01.94% 34.4%
07/22 $0.1315 00.26% 50.6%
07/23 $0.1317 +00.16% 62.0%
07/24 $0.1297 01.48% 49.1%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume was up today. But without a trend of decent volume and changes trending, we have to just take it as noise still.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
061.59 0161.27 0303.10 0692.72 01837.22 06167.52
066.14 0170.92 0317.77 0683.09 01914.60 06285.66
022.66 0152.87 0307.35 0625.26 01893.73 06289.09
021.38 0085.63 0343.98 0679.05 01908.65 06503.63
034.35 0086.59 0355.65 0678.28 01893.01 06393.67
039.07 0107.82 0364.54 0727.31 02092.50 07044.45
015.30 0086.32 0344.92 0641.01 02021.59 06782.83
054.16 0081.33 0378.70 0704.36 02177.30 07014.61
052.40 0075.51 0357.46 0644.63 02037.68 06679.46
018.40 0053.47 0308.37 0554.64 01849.94 06254.12
011.84 0048.89 0313.49 0542.03 01873.47 06304.63
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/23/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 19, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol: 99869, AvTrSz: 5256
Min. Pr: 0.1300, Max Pr: 0.1330, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1317
# Buys, Shares: 13 61869, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1327
# Sells, Shares: 6 38000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1301
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.63:1 (61.95% "buys"), DlyShts 43769 (43.83%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 115.18%
No outlier today.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, 0.37%, 00.16%, 41.23% and 87.66% respectively. Price spread today was 2.31% vs. 2.69%, 6.08%, 5.11%, 17.35% (thanks to the two $0.1193 trades), 12.53%, 10.13%, 3.37%, 3.88% and 7.84% on prior days.
In the traditional TA area, low volume suggests that little weight should be given to the oscillators I normally watch. All had very small moves, three positive and three negative. There's nothing I can read into them with this kind of volume.
The Bollinger lower limit continues to drop, showing $0.1287 vs $0.1298 and $0.1314 on prior days. The upper limit continued lower today, reading $0.1547 vs. $0.1554 and $0.1559 on prior days.
We traded mostly below the rising 200day SMA today, $0.1320 and did manage to close just above it at $0.1324.
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs again all continued down. Today the averages are $0.1344, $0.1319, $0.2453, $0.2524 and $0.2783. The 100day average joined in on 7/21. Starting with Friday, 7/18, we have $0.2900, $0.2883, $0.2862 and $0.2827.
No "fishing" was noted today.
Short percentage continued behaving as expected  buy percentage up (and "high" at 62%) and daily short percentage moved from yesterday's 13.73% to 43.83% today.
There were no larger trades today.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3011:11: 036100 shrs, 36.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1330, 100.0% buys
12:0313:03: 012000 shrs, 12.02% of vol, VWAP $0.1324, 100.0% buys
14:0214:12: 038000 shrs, 38.05% of vol, VWAP $0.1301, 000.0% buys
14:1815:57: 013769 shrs, 13.79% of vol, VWAP $0.1322, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1300$0.1302: 038000 shrs, 38.05% of vol, VWAP $0.1301, 000.0% buys
$0.1320$0.1324: 026869 shrs, 26.90% of vol, VWAP $0.1323, 100.0% buys
$0.1330$0.1330: 035000 shrs, 35.05% of vol, VWAP $0.1330, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/08 $0.1431 +03.78% 47.1%
07/09 $0.1456 +01.80% 36.2%
07/10 $0.1426 02.10% 16.8%
07/11 $0.1412 01.00% 21.4%
07/14 $0.1406 00.37% 91.4%
07/15 $0.1399 00.51% 51.0%
07/16 $0.1398 00.09% 28.9%
07/17 $0.1353 10.50% 24.9%
07/18 $0.1344 00.60% 64.9%
07/21 $0.1318 01.94% 34.4%
07/22 $0.1315 00.26% 50.6%
07/23 $0.1317 +00.16% 62.0%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume was in the crapper for the second consecutive day. Today "noise" continues  just continue to ignore the readings.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
044.61 0157.16 0278.93 0596.82 01584.16 05445.70
061.59 0161.27 0303.10 0692.72 01837.22 06167.52
066.14 0170.92 0317.77 0683.09 01914.60 06285.66
022.66 0152.87 0307.35 0625.26 01893.73 06289.09
021.38 0085.63 0343.98 0679.05 01908.65 06503.63
034.35 0086.59 0355.65 0678.28 01893.01 06393.67
039.07 0107.82 0364.54 0727.31 02092.50 07044.45
015.30 0086.32 0344.92 0641.01 02021.59 06782.83
054.16 0081.33 0378.70 0704.36 02177.30 07014.61
052.40 0075.51 0357.46 0644.63 02037.68 06679.46
018.40 0053.47 0308.37 0554.64 01849.94 06254.12
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/22/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 17, MinTrSz: 323, MaxTrSz: 44600, Vol: 169923, AvTrSz: 9995
Min. Pr: 0.1300, Max Pr: 0.1335, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1315
# Buys, Shares: 8 85923, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1321
# Sells, Shares: 9 84000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1309
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.02:1 (50.57% "buys"), DlyShts 23323 (13.73%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 27.77%
No outlier today.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, 3.19%, 00.26%, 68.92% and 84.98% respectively. Price spread today was 2.69% vs. 6.08%, 5.11%, 17.35% (thanks to the two $0.1193 trades), 12.53%, 10.13%, 3.37%, 3.88%, 7.84% and 6.21% on prior days.
Of the traditional TA oscillators I watch, the low volume bites us again  all flipped negative yesterday on reasonable and rising volume so it seemed we should give that movement some weight. Today's price action does suggest that was a correct assessment. Today we get minuscule volume and mixed readings as a couple improve and a couple continue to weaken and a couple go flat. Just ignore them for now.
The Bollinger lower limit continues to drop, showing $0.1298 now and the upper limit went from flat yesterday to lower today, reading $0.1554 today (was $0.1559).
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs again all continued down. Today the averages are $0.1346, $0.1383, $0.1443 and $0.1525 vs. $0.1363, $0.1394, $0.1452 and $0.1527 vs. $0.1380, $0.1400, $0.1461 and $0.1529 vs. $0.1394, $0.1409, $0.1470 and $0.1530 on prior days.
No "fishing" was noted today.
Short percentage continued behaving as expected.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 3 of the 17 trades, 17.65%. These 92,100 shares were 54.20% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1315. 1 of the larger trades, 33.33%, was a buy of 44,600 shares, 48.43% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1320. 2 of the larger trades, 66.67%, were sells of 47,500 shares, 51.57% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1310.
The other 14 trades, 82.35% of the day's trades, traded 77,823 shares, 45.80% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1315. 7 trades, 50.00%, were buys and accounted for 41,323 shares, 53.10% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1321. 7 trades, 50.00%, were sells and accounted for 36,500 shares, 46.90% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1308.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:30: 003000 shrs, 01.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1300, 000.0% buys
10:2611:15: 012323 shrs, 07.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1331, 091.9% buys
12:5414:00: 022500 shrs, 13.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1308, 000.0% buys
15:0315:05: 054600 shrs, 32.13% of vol, VWAP $0.1322, 100.0% buys
15:1115:52: 077500 shrs, 45.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1310, 025.8% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1300$0.1310: 079000 shrs, 46.49% of vol, VWAP $0.1309, 025.3% buys
$0.1311$0.1319: 026323 shrs, 15.49% of vol, VWAP $0.1311, 005.0% buys
$0.1320$0.1320: 044600 shrs, 26.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1320, 100.0% buys
$0.1330$0.1335: 020000 shrs, 11.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1333, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/07 $0.1379 03.59% 28.6%
07/08 $0.1431 +03.78% 47.1%
07/09 $0.1456 +01.80% 36.2%
07/10 $0.1426 02.10% 16.8%
07/11 $0.1412 01.00% 21.4%
07/14 $0.1406 00.37% 91.4%
07/15 $0.1399 00.51% 51.0%
07/16 $0.1398 00.09% 28.9%
07/17 $0.1353 10.50% 24.9%
07/18 $0.1344 00.60% 64.9%
07/21 $0.1318 01.94% 34.4%
07/22 $0.1315 00.26% 50.6%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume tanked today. Yesterday I gave weight to the changes and today it seems that was correct. Five of the six periods were weaker, several notably so. Today, it's back to "noise"  just ignore the readings.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
060.52 0199.11 0279.09 0692.62 01916.57 06132.57
044.61 0157.16 0278.93 0596.82 01584.16 05445.70
061.59 0161.27 0303.10 0692.72 01837.22 06167.52
066.14 0170.92 0317.77 0683.09 01914.60 06285.66
022.66 0152.87 0307.35 0625.26 01893.73 06289.09
021.38 0085.63 0343.98 0679.05 01908.65 06503.63
034.35 0086.59 0355.65 0678.28 01893.01 06393.67
039.07 0107.82 0364.54 0727.31 02092.50 07044.45
015.30 0086.32 0344.92 0641.01 02021.59 06782.83
054.16 0081.33 0378.70 0704.36 02177.30 07014.61
052.40 0075.51 0357.46 0644.63 02037.68 06679.46
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/21/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 46, MinTrSz: 75, MaxTrSz: 65000, Vol: 546751, AvTrSz: 11886
Min. Pr: 0.1300, Max Pr: 0.1379, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1318
# Buys, Shares: 15 188074, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1330
# Sells, Shares: 31 358677, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1312
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.91 (34.40% "buys"), DlyShts 155300 (28.40%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 43.30%
We had one outlier at 12:02 in the form of a 4,999 share trade at $0.1379, the high of the day. The next lower price was $0.1350 in two trades totaling 8,862 share. Since it was near similarlypriced trades, $0.1348, $0.1340, ... I would think using $0.1350 in any "what if" scenarios would be reasonable.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.26%, 1.36%, 01.94%, 69.92% and 7.56% respectively. Price spread today was 6.08% vs. 5.11%, 17.35% (thanks to the two $0.1193 trades), 12.53%, 10.13%, 3.37%, 3.88%, 7.84%, 6.21% and 16.19% on prior days.
If we throw out the $0.1379 outlier, the high movement becomes 3.43% and the spread becomes 3.85%.
The $0.135 weak support caved today as both VWAP, $0.1318, and the close, $0.1301, were below it on rising and decisive volume. We also closed below the rising 200day SMA of $0.1318, right where the VWAP is today. Discounting the "outlier" would also move the high $0.1350.
Excluding the one outlier 4,999 trade at $0.1379, 100% of volume traded below $0.1350.
Of the traditional TA oscillators I watch, all flipped negative today. Since we had reasonable and rising volume we should give this movement some weight. Of course, there's a chance everything could reverse tomorrow, but I'm not looking for that.
Our next potential support is around $0.125 and I'm now wondering about its strength. There's not any signs of which I'm aware that might act as a catalyst to stop this down trend.
The Bollinger lower limit continues to drop, showing $0.1314 now and the upper limit went flat today. That's a temporary situation though unless price makes a move up, which seems unlikely ATM.
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs again all continued down. Today the averages are $0.1363, $0.1394, $0.1452 and $0.1527 vs. $0.1380, $0.1400, $0.1461 and $0.1529 yesterday and $0.1394, $0.1409, $0.1470 and $0.1530 two day's ago.
No "fishing" was noted today.
We saw a couple notable offers, relative to our volume, in a 65K offer at $0.133 from BNCH and a 75K offer at $0.135 from NITE.
Short percentage continued behaving as expected. Buy percentage dropped from 64.9% to 34.4% and short percentage dropped from 52.21% to 28.4%. We're seeing the normal "choppy" reversal down from the silly 60.92% on 7/14 as the short percentage starts gravitating towards a more normal, and hopefully somewhat more stable, range. As I've noted in the past, this "leg down" is usually associated with falling price and this leg seems no different in that regard.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 10 of the 46 trades, 21.74%. These 304,500 shares were 55.69% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1316. 3 of the larger trades, 30.00%, were buys of 110,900 shares, 36.42% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1324. 7 of the larger trades, 70.00%, were sells of 193,600 shares, 63.58% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1311.
The other 36 trades, 78.26% of the day's trades, traded 242,251 shares, 44.31% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1321. 12 trades, 33.33%, were buys and accounted for 77,174 shares, 31.86% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1338. 24 trades, 66.67%, were sells and accounted for 165,077 shares, 68.14% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1314.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3109:34: 010000 shrs, 01.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1302, 005.3% buys
09:3809:55: 096100 shrs, 17.58% of vol, VWAP $0.1316, 016.8% buys
10:0612:01: 158250 shrs, 28.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1322, 056.4% buys
12:0214:05: 015201 shrs, 02.78% of vol, VWAP $0.1358, 032.9% buys
14:1915:29: 112200 shrs, 20.52% of vol, VWAP $0.1319, 033.2% buys
15:4015:42: 070000 shrs, 12.80% of vol, VWAP $0.1301, 000.0% buys
15:4415:44: 040000 shrs, 07.32% of vol, VWAP $0.1337, 100.0% buys
15:5715:58: 045000 shrs, 08.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1307, 000.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the last range includes only the single outlier.
$0.1300$0.1319: 260900 shrs, 47.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1306, 008.2% buys
$0.1320$0.1339: 251990 shrs, 46.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1327, 056.2% buys
$0.1340$0.1350: 028862 shrs, 05.28% of vol, VWAP $0.1346, 069.3% buys
$0.1379$0.1379: 004999 shrs, 00.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1379, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/03 $0.1430 01.15% 33.9%
07/07 $0.1379 03.59% 28.6%
07/08 $0.1431 +03.78% 47.1%
07/09 $0.1456 +01.80% 36.2%
07/10 $0.1426 02.10% 16.8%
07/11 $0.1412 01.00% 21.4%
07/14 $0.1406 00.37% 91.4%
07/15 $0.1399 00.51% 51.0%
07/16 $0.1398 00.09% 28.9%
07/17 $0.1353 10.50% 24.9%
07/18 $0.1344 00.60% 64.9%
07/21 $0.1318 01.94% 34.4%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume improved today and is between the 50 and 100day averages of 307K and 797K respectively. So I'd give weight to the changes now. Five of the six periods are weaker, several notably so.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
139.76 0245.21 0316.56 0901.07 02660.91 07674.85
060.52 0199.11 0279.09 0692.62 01916.57 06132.57
044.61 0157.16 0278.93 0596.82 01584.16 05445.70
061.59 0161.27 0303.10 0692.72 01837.22 06167.52
066.14 0170.92 0317.77 0683.09 01914.60 06285.66
022.66 0152.87 0307.35 0625.26 01893.73 06289.09
021.38 0085.63 0343.98 0679.05 01908.65 06503.63
034.35 0086.59 0355.65 0678.28 01893.01 06393.67
039.07 0107.82 0364.54 0727.31 02092.50 07044.45
015.30 0086.32 0344.92 0641.01 02021.59 06782.83
054.16 0081.33 0378.70 0704.36 02177.30 07014.61
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/18/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 36, MinTrSz: 2, MaxTrSz: 77200, Vol: 321777, AvTrSz: 8938
Min. Pr: 0.1330, Max Pr: 0.1398, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1344
# Buys, Shares: 20 208909, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1350
# Sells, Shares: 16 112868, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1334
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.85:1 (64.92% "buys"), DlyShts 168000 (52.21%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 148.85%
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 11.48%, 0.14%, 00.60%, 153.77% and 1,360.87% respectively. Price spread today was 5.11% vs. 17.35% (thanks to the two $0.1193 trades), 12.53%, 10.13%, 3.37%, 3.88%, 7.84%, 6.21%, 16.19% and 18.52% on prior days.
The $0.135 weak support, IMO, was tested for the third consecutive day. It's looking weak, even considering Wednesday's VWAP of $0.1398 with a range of $0.1333  $0.1500 (100K, ~22% of day;s volume). ~28% traded at or below $0.1359.
Yesterday, Thursday, was a lowvolume day so we wouldn't give its behavior a lot of weight. It ranged from $0.1193 (two trades at the open totaling 2.2K  a better low would be $0.1335) to $0.1400 (three totaling 15.2K) and ended with a VWAP of $0.1353. Checking the trading breakdowns we see 60.1% traded below $0.135.
Today, even with "decent" volume for us, 73.15% of volume traded below $0.1350. Another 20.64% traded right at $0.1350. This with 64.92% buys.
The result is we now have a threeday string of increasing percentages of trading below the $0.135x range on both rising and falling volumes and buy percentages.
See the notes in the trading breakdowns by time and by price for a couple of additional notable numbers.
On the traditional TA front, beyond just the oscillators I watch, discounting Thursday's $0.1193 outliers and using $0.1335 as the real low, six of the last eight days have had lower lows. Today we add two consecutive days of lower highs.
The 10 and 20day price averages continue falling. The trading lows are approaching the slowly rising 200day SMA of $0.1318.
The Bollinger limits both continue to drop, showing $0.1558 and $0.1337 now.
Of the traditional TA oscillators I watch, we are less mixed today. All but the ADX related, which continues to weaken, have marginal ticks up again. But all but full stochastic are still well below neutral and shouldn't be seen as "bullish", just "less weak". Some of this "less weak" may be due to the relatively low volume seen recently.
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs have switched from three down and the 50day rising (1/100th penny again) to all down again. Today the averages are $0.1380, $0.1400, $0.1461 and $0.1529, versus yesterday's $0.1394, $0.1409, $0.1470 and $0.1530.
The ARCA oddity continues, appearing premarket today both sides. The sell side went away by 10:20 and the buy side left by 11:21.
We had one outlier, the last trade today, a buy of 5K shares for $0.1398 at 15:54:54. I'm not real sure how much of an outlier it was though because there were also three buys at $0.1378  one for 7 shares at 14:45 (appears to be "locking up" a 10K trade that completed later), one for 5K shares at 15:53:36, and one for 9,993 shares (paired with the 7 shares?) at 15:54:00.
Was the $0.1398 just a determined "buy regardless" trade or a cheap painting of the EOD tape to display bullishness? If you look at the trading breakdown by time you see the 15:00  15:54 timeframes had VWAPs of $0.1350, $0.1337 and $0.1383. So the $0.1378 and $0.1398 both would appear to be "outliers". Checking the breakdown by price, the $0.1378  $0.1398 price range is only 20K shares, 6.22% of days volume. Assuming a bell curve, ...
Two 100 share trades, one buy and one sell at $0.1350 and $0.1330 respectively, may have been "lures" today  both were in the last 35 minutes of the session after a 45 minute period of no trading, in the first case.
We did not see outrageously large, or even notably large, bids or offers today.
I noted yesterday short percentage continued behaving as expected. Today as buy percentage moved from 24.9% to 64.9%, daily short percentage went from 9.07% to 52.21%. Recall that Monday we had buy and short percentages of 91.4% and 60.92% respectively. Then we saw two days of falling daily short, as is common regardless of buy percentage when daily short hits nosebleed altitudes and volume is low, and now we've got a tick up. This is the normal followon "choppy" behavior as things start returning to normal and work off the excesses of one leg, down or up, and make a choppy leg in the opposite direction.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 4 of the 36 trades, 11.11%. These 149,000 shares were 46.31% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1343. 3 of the larger trades, 75.00%, were buys of 129,000 shares, 86.58% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1345. 1 of the larger trades, 25.00%, were sells of 20,000 shares, 13.42% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1330.
The other 32 trades, 88.89% of the day's trades, traded 172,777 shares, 53.69% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1346. 17 trades, 53.13%, were buys and accounted for 79,909 shares, 46.25% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1358. 15 trades, 46.88%, were sells and accounted for 92,868 shares, 53.75% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1335.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note that the period ending at 12:21 included one of our four larger trades, a buy of 20K for $0.1330, and the period beginning 12:53 included the 77.2K buy at that minute for $0.139. The period beginning 14:41 included the buys of 21.5K for $0.1350 and 30.3K for $0.1330.
09:3709:37: 006450 shrs, 02.00% of vol, VWAP $0.1350, 100.0% buys
11:1012:21: 079191 shrs, 24.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1333, 014.1% buys
12:5314:20: 115400 shrs, 35.86% of vol, VWAP $0.1349, 087.0% buys
14:4114:45: 051807 shrs, 16.10% of vol, VWAP $0.1338, 100.0% buys
15:0615:37: 019127 shrs, 05.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1350, 099.9% buys
15:4615:46: 015100 shrs, 04.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1337, 000.0% buys
15:5315:54: 019993 shrs, 06.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1383, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note all our larger trades today, plus a 14,150 share buy for $0.1349, traded at $0.1350 or lower. See above.
$0.1330$0.1331: 116127 shrs, 36.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1330, 026.1% buys
$0.1340$0.1349: 119250 shrs, 37.06% of vol, VWAP $0.1348, 081.5% buys
$0.1350$0.1350: 066400 shrs, 20.64% of vol, VWAP $0.1350, 092.5% buys
$0.1378$0.1398: 020000 shrs, 06.22% of vol, VWAP $0.1383, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/02 $0.1447 +02.53% 72.6%
07/03 $0.1430 01.15% 33.9%
07/07 $0.1379 03.59% 28.6%
07/08 $0.1431 +03.78% 47.1%
07/09 $0.1456 +01.80% 36.2%
07/10 $0.1426 02.10% 16.8%
07/11 $0.1412 01.00% 21.4%
07/14 $0.1406 00.37% 91.4%
07/15 $0.1399 00.51% 51.0%
07/16 $0.1398 00.09% 28.9%
07/17 $0.1353 10.50% 24.9%
07/18 $0.1344 00.60% 64.9%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume improved today but is still somewhat low. So I'd give more weight to the changes, but not yet a lot. Yesterday the three longer periods went from flat to negative today, as was suggested by the shorter periods the prior day. The prior day was very low volume and it's not surprising to see today's readings with all periods improved. I have to think it's still just "noise".
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
108.62 0217.53 0411.56 0816.02 02392.42 06998.60
139.76 0245.21 0316.56 0901.07 02660.91 07674.85
060.52 0199.11 0279.09 0692.62 01916.57 06132.57
044.61 0157.16 0278.93 0596.82 01584.16 05445.70
061.59 0161.27 0303.10 0692.72 01837.22 06167.52
066.14 0170.92 0317.77 0683.09 01914.60 06285.66
022.66 0152.87 0307.35 0625.26 01893.73 06289.09
021.38 0085.63 0343.98 0679.05 01908.65 06503.63
034.35 0086.59 0355.65 0678.28 01893.01 06393.67
039.07 0107.82 0364.54 0727.31 02092.50 07044.45
015.30 0086.32 0344.92 0641.01 02021.59 06782.83
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are are in the latest daily post above.
07/17/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 25, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 18200, Vol: 126800, AvTrSz: 5072
Min. Pr: 0.1193, Max Pr: 0.1400, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1353
# Buys, Shares: 11 31600, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1395
# Sells, Shares: 14 95200, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1339
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:3.01 (24.92% "buys"), DlyShts 11500 (09.07%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 12.08%
We had two outliers at the open today  sells of 200 and then 2K for $0.1193. The next lowestpriced trades, and they had multiple trades and some volume, were at $0.1335 and higher. Without these two trades the day's low could be reasonably considered to be $0.1335, although this was the single larger trade of the day at 18.2K. Next up were a couple at $0.1336.
We had four "lures" today  three 100 share buys at $0.1389 and one 100 share buy at $0.1399.
We did not see ATDF come with a 137.5K at $0.14 offer again. Don't know if they changed their mind or sold it in smaller chunks, at lower prices or what.
The $0.135 is now being tested as yesterday we went below it, even ignoring those two outliers, and came back to and above it. But it was very low volume, a low buy percentage and I have stated I don't expect it is a strong support level. A few days should tell the story.
The ARCA oddity continues, appearing premarket today both sides and disappearing at the open from both sides.
Short percentage continues behaving as expected as buy percentage drops, so does short percentage.
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs again have three down. Today the falling 5, 10, 25day averages and the rising (1/100th penny again) 50day average are $0.1394, $0.1409, $0.1470 and $0.1530 compared to yesterday's $0.1408, $0.1418, $0.1477 and $0.1529, and the prior $0.1420, $0.1420, $0.1483 and $0.1528 respectively.
There was only one larger trade, a sell of 18.2K for $0.1335 at 13:42.
On the traditional TA front, beyond just the oscillators I watch, the third consecutive day of lower lows (unless we discount the two outliers totally) suggest the continuation of weakening.
In conjunction with all that, the price 10 and 20day averages continue falling.
Of the traditional TA oscillators I watch, we are still mixed today. The RSI,MFI and ADX related are weaker and the full stochastic, Williams %R and momentum have marginal ticks up.
The Bollinger limits both continue to drop, showing $0.1570 and $0.1339 now.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 10.50%, 6.67%, 03.25%, 71.97% and 80.33% respectively. Price spread today was 17.35% (thanks to the two $0.1193 trades) vs. 12.53%, 10.13%, 3.37%, 3.88%, 7.84%, 6.21%, 16.19%, 18.52% and 7.07% on prior days.
If we remove those two outliers and use $0.1335 as our low, the low movement would be +0.15% instead of the 10.5% we saw. The spread would be 4.87% instead of 12.53%.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note that the first entry includes only the two outliers and the last two entries are single trades.
09:3009:30: 002200 shrs, 01.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1193, 000.0% buys
09:4310:56: 015200 shrs, 11.99% of vol, VWAP $0.1400, 100.0% buys
11:0011:37: 040100 shrs, 31.62% of vol, VWAP $0.1344, 000.2% buys
11:5013:38: 015300 shrs, 12.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1389, 100.0% buys
13:4113:56: 049000 shrs, 38.64% of vol, VWAP $0.1340, 000.0% buys
14:5714:57: 001000 shrs, 00.79% of vol, VWAP $0.1391, 100.0% buys
15:5215:52: 004000 shrs, 03.15% of vol, VWAP $0.1350, 000.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note that the first entry includes only the two outliers.
$0.1193$0.1193: 002200 shrs, 01.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1193, 000.0% buys
$0.1335$0.1341: 074000 shrs, 58.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1338, 000.0% buys
$0.1350$0.1375: 019000 shrs, 14.98% of vol, VWAP $0.1357, 000.0% buys
$0.1389$0.1399: 016400 shrs, 12.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1389, 100.0% buys
$0.1400$0.1400: 015200 shrs, 11.99% of vol, VWAP $0.1400, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
07/01 $0.1411 04.54% 22.8%
07/02 $0.1447 +02.53% 72.6%
07/03 $0.1430 01.15% 33.9%
07/07 $0.1379 03.59% 28.6%
07/08 $0.1431 +03.78% 47.1%
07/09 $0.1456 +01.80% 36.2%
07/10 $0.1426 02.10% 16.8%
07/11 $0.1412 01.00% 21.4%
07/14 $0.1406 00.37% 91.4%
07/15 $0.1399 00.51% 51.0%
07/16 $0.1398 00.09% 28.9%
07/17 $0.1353 10.50% 24.9%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume weakened today, so I'd give less weight to the changes. Yesterday we had the three shortest periods weakened and the three longer periods essentially flat, even though showing minuscule improvement. I noted the 5day had a relatively large change and suggests that the next two periods will show an increasing weakness going forward.
Today they do and three longer periods went from flat to negative today. Keep in mind the low volume and weigh these changes accordingly.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
104.10 0199.41 0403.23 0787.15 02393.96 06938.51
108.62 0217.53 0411.56 0816.02 02392.42 06998.60
139.76 0245.21 0316.56 0901.07 02660.91 07674.85
060.52 0199.11 0279.09 0692.62 01916.57 06132.57
044.61 0157.16 0278.93 0596.82 01584.16 05445.70
061.59 0161.27 0303.10 0692.72 01837.22 06167.52
066.14 0170.92 0317.77 0683.09 01914.60 06285.66
022.66 0152.87 0307.35 0625.26 01893.73 06289.09
021.38 0085.63 0343.98 0679.05 01908.65 06503.63
034.35 0086.59 0355.65 0678.28 01893.01 06393.67
039.07 0107.82 0364.54 0727.31 02092.50 07044.45
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/16/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 50, MinTrSz: 400, MaxTrSz: 66257, Vol: 452300, AvTrSz: 9046
Min. Pr: 0.1333, Max Pr: 0.1500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1398
# Buys, Shares: 8 130714, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1355
# Sells, Shares: 42 321586, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1416
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.46 (28.90% "buys"), DlyShts 58457 (12.92%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 18.18%
Odd trading today as at the open we had seventeen consecutive sells at $0.15 for 100K shares. I think this might have been the CDEL 100K offer being depleted as we know it had been offered as low as $0.145 during the last week or so. Some additional thoughts, intraday are in this comment.
Unfortunately, ATDF came with a 137.5K offer at $0.14 at 15:33, dashing hopes that the larger selling might be over. Let's hope it doesn't appear again tomorrow.
Anyway, the next two trades at 9:53/4 dropped to $0.1410 for 15K and pps trended lower bottoming at $0.1333 at 11:29. But we never recovered, peaking at $0.1389 at 15:26  15:33, except for the somewhat usual "support" trade near EOD  a buy of 2k for $0.1399 at 15:46, our closing trade.
Yesterday we saw the predicted VWAP move below $0.14 and we were awaiting the predicted close below $0.14 predicted for this week. We got that and now my concern shifts to whether or not the potential weak(?) support at $0.135 will materialize.
Today it was penetrated and price came back above it. But it did not do so with conviction and I expect further tests of this will break below it within a short time.
The ARCA oddity continues, appearing premarket today only on the buy side with a bid at $0.136 for 10K for the third consecutive day followed by removal of the bid at the open.
I didn't see any "lures" today, probably because the shortterm goals were met with the string of $0.15 trades at $0.15 at the open.
Short percentage continues behaving as expected as buy percentage drops, so does short percentage.
The 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs again have three down. Today the falling 5, 10, 25day averages and the rising (1/100th penny again) 50day average are $0.1408, $0.1418, $0.1477 and $0.1529, compared to the prior $0.1420, $0.1420, $0.1483 and $0.1528 respectively.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 6 of the 50 trades, 12.00%. These 214,157 shares were 47.35% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1386. 2 of the larger trades, 33.33%, were buys of 96,257 shares, 44.95% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1347. 4 of the larger trades, 66.67%, were sells of 117,900 shares, 55.05% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1418.
The other 44 trades, 88.00% of the day's trades, traded 238,143 shares, 52.65% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1409. 6 trades, 13.64%, were buys and accounted for 34,457 shares, 14.47% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1376. 38 trades, 86.36%, were sells and accounted for 203,686 shares, 85.53% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1414.
On the traditional TA front, beyond just the oscillators I watch, a few trends are worth noting. The first is that as our former support and resistance point of $0.15 was touched today with the spate of 17 sells at the open, price immediately retreated to $0.1401 and continued to drop as described above. Further, my longerterm descending resistance achieved $0.15, AFAICT, and it is likely to continue to have effect going forward, sans a catalyst. I expect it to be a strong resistance as it has an origin and six subsequent touches, including two intraday penetrations, and retreated back below the line in every case.
We had our first test of the expected weak support at $0.135 with an intraday penetration to $0.1333 followed by a weak recovery above $0.135. I don't expect this price to hold for long. The second consecutive day of lower lows suggest the continuation of weakening.
In conjunction with all that, we have the price 10 and 20day averages falling with the 10day leading. The 50day will remain flattish for another week or so, if we stay steady in this range, and it will then begin to weaken too.
Of the traditional TA oscillators I watch, we are still in a mixed bag today, even with improved volume. But it's the first day of improving volume, so no trend can be guessed at and not to much weight should be assigned to the oscillator behavior.
The Bollinger limits both continue to drop, showing $0.1576 and $0.1353 for the upper and lower limits respectively, and price action is continuing to force both lower.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.13%, 0.00%, 00.09%, 479.69% and 58.42% respectively. Price spread today was 12.53% vs. 10.13%, 3.37%, 3.88%, 7.84%, 6.21%, 16.19%, 18.52%, 7.07% and 5.08% on prior days.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the first entry reflects only the 17 sells at the open.
09:3009:30: 100000 shrs, 22.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1500, 000.0% buys
09:5310:01: 045000 shrs, 09.95% of vol, VWAP $0.1408, 022.2% buys
10:0610:19: 080000 shrs, 17.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1364, 000.0% buys
10:4410:44: 042700 shrs, 09.44% of vol, VWAP $0.1390, 000.0% buys
10:5411:29: 061700 shrs, 13.64% of vol, VWAP $0.1343, 066.8% buys
12:0012:46: 086257 shrs, 19.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1353, 078.3% buys
15:2615:46: 036643 shrs, 08.10% of vol, VWAP $0.1390, 032.7% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the last entry contains only the 17 sells at the open for $0.15.
$0.1333$0.1333: 041200 shrs, 09.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1333, 100.0% buys
$0.1353$0.1359: 086257 shrs, 19.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1353, 078.3% buys
$0.1361$0.1362: 090500 shrs, 20.01% of vol, VWAP $0.1361, 000.0% buys
$0.1380$0.1399: 089343 shrs, 19.75% of vol, VWAP $0.1389, 013.4% buys
$0.1406$0.1410: 045000 shrs, 09.95% of vol, VWAP $0.1408, 022.2% buys
$0.1500$0.1500: 100000 shrs, 22.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1500, 000.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
06/30 $0.1478 01.84% 15.3%
07/01 $0.1411 04.54% 22.8%
07/02 $0.1447 +02.53% 72.6%
07/03 $0.1430 01.15% 33.9%
07/07 $0.1379 03.59% 28.6%
07/08 $0.1431 +03.78% 47.1%
07/09 $0.1456 +01.80% 36.2%
07/10 $0.1426 02.10% 16.8%
07/11 $0.1412 01.00% 21.4%
07/14 $0.1406 00.37% 91.4%
07/15 $0.1399 00.51% 51.0%
07/16 $0.1398 00.09% 28.9%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume improved today so I'll give a tad more weight to the changes. Yesterday had the two shortest periods improved, marginally except for the 5day, and the other four weakened. Today we have the three shortest periods weakened and the three longer periods essentially flat, even though showing minuscule improvement. Notable in the shorter periods is that the 5day has a relatively large change and suggests that the next two periods will show an increasing weakness going forward.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
799.65 1307.74 2390.47 4575.59 15963.38 52336.74
104.10 0199.41 0403.23 0787.15 02393.96 06938.51
108.62 0217.53 0411.56 0816.02 02392.42 06998.60
139.76 0245.21 0316.56 0901.07 02660.91 07674.85
060.52 0199.11 0279.09 0692.62 01916.57 06132.57
044.61 0157.16 0278.93 0596.82 01584.16 05445.70
061.59 0161.27 0303.10 0692.72 01837.22 06167.52
066.14 0170.92 0317.77 0683.09 01914.60 06285.66
022.66 0152.87 0307.35 0625.26 01893.73 06289.09
021.38 0085.63 0343.98 0679.05 01908.65 06503.63
034.35 0086.59 0355.65 0678.28 01893.01 06393.67
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/15/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 17, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 32900, Vol: 78025, AvTrSz: 4590
Min. Pr: 0.1362, Max Pr: 0.1500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1399
# Buys, Shares: 8 39800, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1403
# Sells, Shares: 9 38225, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1395
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1.04:1 (51.01% "buys"), DlyShts 36900 (47.29%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 96.53%
Last week I said that sans a catalyst, I suspected $0.14 will be breached on the close next [now this] week. I thought today was going to do it until the last seven minutes in the day when the bid came up to $0.14/$0.1401 (had sat at $0.1381 x 10K since 13:04 from ATDF) and we got a sell of 1K for $0.14 at 15:53.
I also suggested that as we retreated from the very high daily short percentage we would see VWAP move below $0.14. That did occur today, in spite of the "lures" (described below) attempting to get trading going around $0.15.
With the traditional TA stuff showing weakness, buy percentage generally remaining low (leaving yesterday's aberration behind and starting to return to trend?), daily short percentage in a down leg now, low volume, and our history, I see no reason yet to modify those views.
We had the 100K offer from CDEL for $0.15 again.
We again saw an oddity with ARCA appearing premarket, but only on the buy side today. They bid $0.136 for 10K, the same as the prior day. The bid disappeared at the open, which is a change from the prior couple days.
We had four "lures" today, two buys of 100 shares for $0.15 at 9:47 and 9:49, a buy for 100 shares for $0.1499 at 9:53, and a buy of 100 shares for $0.1443 at 12:49. These were "unique" prices not seen again during the session.
Without these our high would be $0.1438 (2.5K at 10:12).
The short percentage again behaved as it should when the buy percentage moved from yesterday's 91.42% to 51.01% today. Short percentage moved from 60.92% to 47.29% today. I have mentioned as short percentage began to fall that was likely when our share price would move VWAP into the $0.13xx range and our close(s) will drop below $0.14. Part one is done  VWAP today moved from yesterday's $0.1406 to $0.1399 today.
Part two was prevented by the bid going to $0.14 and $0.1401 in the last seven minutes. A 1K sell for $0.14 may have saved the day.
The only "outliers" today were the "fishing lures" described above.
For the 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages for the VWAPs, yesterday we had two up and two down changes. This suggested "noise" and I thought we would want to wait and see if a trend returns. Today we have three down again  maybe the starting to continue the down trend again? Today the falling 5, 10, 25day averages and the rising (1/100th penny) 50day average are $0.1420, $0.1420, $0.1483 and $0.1528 respectively.
The only larger trade was a buy of 32.9K for $0.14 at 12:17.
Of the traditional TA oscillators I watch, we are back to a mixed bag today, thanks again to the anemic volume. As I said yesterday, with ongoing low volume it would be risky to be making any shortterm bets and now today it's not even worth discussing what's up, down or flat in the oscillators.
There are some things "down" I want to mention though. If we throw out our "lures", and use $0.1438 as our high, we would have highs falling for the third consecutive day, along with a lower low today.
The lower Bollinger limit continues to drop, now down from $0.1377 to $0.1366 to now $0.1359. The upper limit has gone from $0.16 to $0.1592 and now $0.1585. Our low today, $0.1362, was barely above the lower limit.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.30%, 4.09%, 00.51%, 25.62% and 42.25% respectively. Price spread today was 10.13% vs. 3.37%, 3.88%, 7.84%, 6.21%, 16.19%, 18.52%, 7.07%, 5.08% and 14.29% on prior days.
If we remove our "fishing lures" and use $0.1438 as our high, the high and spread changes go to 0.21% and 5.58% instead of the 4.09% and 10.13% we got.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the second entry reflects five trades, four of which where our 100 share "lures" at $0.15 (2), $0.1499 and $0.1438.
09:3009:41: 010500 shrs, 13.46% of vol, VWAP $0.1397, 000.0% buys
09:4710:12: 002900 shrs, 03.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1444, 096.6% buys
11:3911:48: 028875 shrs, 37.01% of vol, VWAP $0.1397, 013.9% buys
12:0915:53: 035750 shrs, 45.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1398, 092.3% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the last entry contains three of the four "lures" today and the prior entry contains the other.
$0.1362$0.1393: 017525 shrs, 22.46% of vol, VWAP $0.1389, 000.0% buys
$0.1400$0.1401: 057500 shrs, 73.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1400, 064.2% buys
$0.1438$0.1443: 002700 shrs, 03.46% of vol, VWAP $0.1438, 096.3% buys
$0.1499$0.1500: 000300 shrs, 00.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1500, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
06/27 $0.1506 00.63% 29.0%
06/30 $0.1478 01.84% 15.3%
07/01 $0.1411 04.54% 22.8%
07/02 $0.1447 +02.53% 72.6%
07/03 $0.1430 01.15% 33.9%
07/07 $0.1379 03.59% 28.6%
07/08 $0.1431 +03.78% 47.1%
07/09 $0.1456 +01.80% 36.2%
07/10 $0.1426 02.10% 16.8%
07/11 $0.1412 01.00% 21.4%
07/14 $0.1406 00.37% 91.4%
07/15 $0.1399 00.51% 51.0%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume tanked again, making any reliance on these movements risky. Typical of "noisiness", we switched from five of six periods weakened two days ago to five of six improved yesterday to today's two shortest periods improved and the other four weakened.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
143.86 0210.39 0330.08 0757.17 02422.62 06919.24
799.65 1307.74 2390.47 4575.59 15963.38 52336.74
104.10 0199.41 0403.23 0787.15 02393.96 06938.51
108.62 0217.53 0411.56 0816.02 02392.42 06998.60
139.76 0245.21 0316.56 0901.07 02660.91 07674.85
060.52 0199.11 0279.09 0692.62 01916.57 06132.57
044.61 0157.16 0278.93 0596.82 01584.16 05445.70
061.59 0161.27 0303.10 0692.72 01837.22 06167.52
066.14 0170.92 0317.77 0683.09 01914.60 06285.66
022.66 0152.87 0307.35 0625.26 01893.73 06289.09
021.38 0085.63 0343.98 0679.05 01908.65 06503.63
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are are in the latest dailypost above.
07/14/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 9, MinTrSz: 1000, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol: 104900, AvTrSz: 11656
Min. Pr: 0.1394, Max Pr: 0.1441, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1406
# Buys, Shares: 7 95900, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1407
# Sells, Shares: 2 9000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1396
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 10.66:1 (91.42% "buys"), DlyShts 63900 (60.92%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 710.00%
Note the high buy percentage today was predominately an effect of two larger trades, detailed later, and few additional trades with an aggregate low volume. Don't be mislead by the buy percentage.
But do note the short percentage behaved as it should when the buy percentage is this high ... in spades! I suspect a large portion of those two large buys at $0.14 were a substantial portion of the short volume today. If so, as a little volume returns the short percentage should start to return, haltingly at least, towards more normal (for our situation) levels and overshoot, if past behavior is any indication. This is likely when our share price will move VWAP into the $0.13xx range and our close(s) will drop below $0.14.
Volume tanked again and the VWAP decreased 00.37% in spite of the strength suggested by that buy percentage. The only reason buy percentage is that high is that someone dropped the offer to $0.14 at 10:31 and about 67% of the day's volume went off in two buys at $0.14. The rest of the day also stunk up the joint even though there were only two sells in our 10 trades. The offers began low and stayed low.
The large offer at $0.145 of 354K shares from CDEL was absent today. But we did get a 100K offer from CDEL for $0.15.
We again saw an oddity with ARCA appearing premarket on both sides, bidding $0.136 for 10K and offering 11K at $0.1441. Both of these were lower prices than the prior day. At the open the sell side again disappeared. The buy side again hung in all day, but had no chance.
I initially thought the recently seen aggressive vying for best offer between NITE and ATDF returned today. It just fizzled though. ATDF spent the majority of the day as best on both sides.
There were no "outliers" today.
Yesterday we returned, almost 100%, to the downward trend in the VWAP averages with only the 50day average avoiding a drop by remaining flat at $0.1525. Today, two up, two down suggests just noise going on for the moment. We'll have to wait for a trend to return I guess. Readings for the 5, 10, 25 and 50day averages are $0.1426, $0.1427, $0.1491 and $0.1527 respectively.
There were only two larger trades, both buys, one of 20K for $0.14 at 10:27 and one of 50K for $0.14 at 10:32. They accounted for 66.73% of the day's volume. They were also at the low of the day along with a 3K sell for $0.14 at 14:03, the closing trade.
Of the traditional TA oscillators I watch, we have less of a mixed bag today. There's none flat now. Most are weaker  full stochastic (going into oversold tomorrow, probably), ADX related, Williams %R (teetering right at oversold), momentum and RSI, which was flat. MFI continued its small up tick. With ongoing low volume it would be risky to be making any shortterm bets.
The lower Bollinger limit continues to drop, now down from $0.1377 to $0.1366. The upper limit transitioned from flat, at $0.16, to beginning a fall today with a reading of $0.1592. It should pick up steam heading lower unless some catalyst pops the share price.
Yesterday I said that sans a catalyst, I suspected $0.14 will be breached on the close next [now this] week. With the highs continuing down for the second consecutive day, the traditional TA stuff showing weakness, and our history, I see no reason yet to modify that view.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.29%, 0.21%, 00.37%, 24.04% and 131.52% respectively. Price spread today was 3.37% vs. 3.88%, 7.84%, 6.21%, 16.19%, 18.52%, 7.07%, 5.08%, 14.29% and 7.78% on prior days.
No trading breakdowns today  I have trouble seeing any rational on it for 10 trades. Even the ones I did with 15 trades or so were marginal utility IMO.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
06/26 $0.1515 +00.11% 28.8%
06/27 $0.1506 00.63% 29.0%
06/30 $0.1478 01.84% 15.3%
07/01 $0.1411 04.54% 22.8%
07/02 $0.1447 +02.53% 72.6%
07/03 $0.1430 01.15% 33.9%
07/07 $0.1379 03.59% 28.6%
07/08 $0.1431 +03.78% 47.1%
07/09 $0.1456 +01.80% 36.2%
07/10 $0.1426 02.10% 16.8%
07/11 $0.1412 01.00% 21.4%
07/14 $0.1406 00.37% 91.4%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume tanked again. Typical of "noisiness", we switched from five of six periods weakening yesterday to five of six improving today. Yesterday I said we could cautiously read bearishness into yesterday's changes, but it seems prudent to wait and see if we are trending or just getting lowvolume noise. Now we know.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
143.86 0210.39 0330.08 0757.17 02422.62 06919.24
799.65 1307.74 2390.47 4575.59 15963.38 52336.74
104.10 0199.41 0403.23 0787.15 02393.96 06938.51
108.62 0217.53 0411.56 0816.02 02392.42 06998.60
139.76 0245.21 0316.56 0901.07 02660.91 07674.85
060.52 0199.11 0279.09 0692.62 01916.57 06132.57
044.61 0157.16 0278.93 0596.82 01584.16 05445.70
061.59 0161.27 0303.10 0692.72 01837.22 06167.52
066.14 0170.92 0317.77 0683.09 01914.60 06285.66
022.66 0152.87 0307.35 0625.26 01893.73 06289.09
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/11/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 15, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol: 138100, AvTrSz: 9207
Min. Pr: 0.1390, Max Pr: 0.1444, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1412
# Buys, Shares: 4 29600, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1428
# Sells, Shares: 11 108500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1407
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:3.67 (21.43% "buys"), DlyShts 27600 (19.99%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 25.44%
Volume improved from yesterday's 75K and 10 trades to 14 trades and ~138K, thanks to three larger trades. Unfortunately VWAP declined 1% even as the buy percentage improved to 21.4% from yesterday's 16.78%. Not surprising, I guess, since 21.4% buys is really no great shakes either.
The large offer at $0.145 of 354K shares from CDEL was absent today.
We again saw an oddity with ARCA appearing premarket on both sides, bidding $0.1352 for 5K and offering 31.9K at $0.147. At the open the sell side disappeared. The buy side hung in all day, but had no chance.
The recently seen aggressive vying for best offer between NITE and ATDF returned today. But today it looked not so much like a contest to be on top as it seemed like NITE messing with the mind of ATDF. >:} See the thread in the APC starting here for more details.
Daily short sales percentage directional correlation with buy percentage "behaved" better as the buy percentage improved. The short percentage recovered from yesterday's aberration of 0.80% to 19.99%.
The only "outlier" today was due to superlatives: the first trade, the largest trade, 30K, and lowest price of the day, $0.1390. Other than that, nothing special  next highest prices came in at $0.1405, $0.1406, ... The next largest trade was 20K at $0.1430, roughly midrange of the day's low and high.
Yesterday I noted we had a break, significance unknown yet, in the 5, 10, 25 and 50day VWAP averages, which had been all descending. They improved slightly. ACK! Today we returned, almost 100% to the downward trend with only the 50day average avoiding a drop by remaining flat at $0.1525. The 5, 10 and 25day averages weakened and are now $0.1421, $0.1437 and $0.1498 respectively.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 3 of the 15 trades, 20.00%. These 66,000 shares were 47.79% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1406. 1 of the larger trades, 33.33%, were buys of 20,000 shares, 30.30% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1430. 2 of the larger trades, 66.67%, were sells of 46,000 shares, 69.70% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1396.
The other 12 trades, 80.00% of the day's trades, traded 72,100 shares, 52.21% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1417. 3 trades, 25.00%, were buys and accounted for 9,600 shares, 13.31% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1425. 9 trades, 75.00%, were sells and accounted for 62,500 shares, 86.69% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1416.
Of the traditional TA oscillators I watch, we have a mixed bag. There's a few flat  Williams %R, momentum and RSI. A couple are weaker  full stochastic and ADX related. One has a tiny uptick  MFI. With ongoing low volume and relatively high price volatility, this somewhat directionless behavior should be expected I guess.
The lower Bollinger limit continues to drop, now at $0.1377.
The intraday low dropped to $0.139 from yesterday's $0.1391. Sans a catalyst, I suspect $0.14 will be breached on the close next week.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.07%, 3.73%, 01.00%, 83.89% and 4500.00% respectively. Price spread today was 3.88% vs. 7.84%, 6.21%, 16.19%, 18.52%, 7.07%, 5.08%, 14.29%, 7.78% and 1.67% on prior days.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the first entry is a single trade, the largest and the lowest priced of the day.
09:4609:46: 030000 shrs, 21.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1390, 000.0% buys
10:5311:06: 016500 shrs, 11.95% of vol, VWAP $0.1444, 012.1% buys
13:3813:39: 010100 shrs, 07.31% of vol, VWAP $0.1406, 001.0% buys
14:0514:12: 028000 shrs, 20.28% of vol, VWAP $0.1406, 000.0% buys
15:0915:42: 027500 shrs, 19.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1427, 100.0% buys
15:4615:49: 026000 shrs, 18.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1408, 000.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the first entry is a single trade, the largest and the lowest priced of the day.
$0.1390$0.1390: 030000 shrs, 21.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1390, 000.0% buys
$0.1405$0.1408: 063500 shrs, 45.98% of vol, VWAP $0.1407, 000.0% buys
$0.1420$0.1430: 028100 shrs, 20.35% of vol, VWAP $0.1427, 098.2% buys
$0.1443$0.1444: 016500 shrs, 11.95% of vol, VWAP $0.1444, 012.1% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
06/25 $0.1513 +00.62% 19.5%
06/26 $0.1515 +00.11% 28.8%
06/27 $0.1506 00.63% 29.0%
06/30 $0.1478 01.84% 15.3%
07/01 $0.1411 04.54% 22.8%
07/02 $0.1447 +02.53% 72.6%
07/03 $0.1430 01.15% 33.9%
07/07 $0.1379 03.59% 28.6%
07/08 $0.1431 +03.78% 47.1%
07/09 $0.1456 +01.80% 36.2%
07/10 $0.1426 02.10% 16.8%
07/11 $0.1412 01.00% 21.4%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume came up a bit today and we continued the weakening started yesterday with today having five of six periods weakening. We still don't know if we'll just go back to a period of "noise" or we'll start to see a trend. Similar to yesterday's 10 trades and 75K shares traded, today we had only 15 trades and ~138K shares traded, with volume improved thanks to three larger trades. We could cautiously read bearishness into today's changes, but it seems prudent to wait and see if we are trending or just getting lowvolume noise.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
098.54 0146.79 0210.95 0611.03 02107.24 06343.32
143.86 0210.39 0330.08 0757.17 02422.62 06919.24
799.65 1307.74 2390.47 4575.59 15963.38 52336.74
104.10 0199.41 0403.23 0787.15 02393.96 06938.51
108.62 0217.53 0411.56 0816.02 02392.42 06998.60
139.76 0245.21 0316.56 0901.07 02660.91 07674.85
060.52 0199.11 0279.09 0692.62 01916.57 06132.57
044.61 0157.16 0278.93 0596.82 01584.16 05445.70
061.59 0161.27 0303.10 0692.72 01837.22 06167.52
066.14 0170.92 0317.77 0683.09 01914.60 06285.66
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/10/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 10, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol: 75100, AvTrSz: 7510
Min. Pr: 0.1391, Max Pr: 0.1500, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1426
# Buys, Shares: 3 12600, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1448
# Sells, Shares: 7 62500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1421
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:4.96 (16.78% "buys"), DlyShts 600 (00.80%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 0.96%
The effects of the announcement of a new CEO and board chairman appointment seems to abating. Volume tanked to about 75K and 10 trades, totaling $10,708.55, and buy percentage dropped further to 16.78% from 36.2% yesterday and 47.1% before that.
The large offer at $0.145 of 354K shares from CDEL returned again today.
An oddity seen today was ARCA appearing premarket on both sides, bidding $0.1311 for 11K and offering 16K at $0.16. At the open both disappeared.
The aggressive vying for best offer between NITE and ATDF seen the prior two days was not present today.
Daily short sales percentage directional correlation with buy percentage continued to "behave" as the severely reduced buy percentage, 36.17% to 16.78%, was accompanied by a severely reduced daily short percentage, 32.97% to 0.80%. Note that the majority of this reduction is likely due to the reduced volume combined with ~220K to ~500K volume over the last three days combined with short percentages ~33% to ~43% and price spreads that offered plenty of covering buy opportunities. That means the shares backing sell orders flow in making the MMs long at low cost. I mention this because this degree of change in short percentage is extremely unusual relative to the movement in the buy percentage.
There were two "outliers" today but with only ten trades and 75K shares traded and $10,708.55 in trades, we really can't give the usual jaundiced eye to them. Anyway, the low of $0.1391 was a single 7.5K sell, the second trade of the day, and the high was a single 5K sell at $0.1500 at 9:30, the first trade of the day.
Recent VWAPs oldest through today: $0.1478, $0.1411, $0.1447, $0.1430, $0.1379, $0.1431, $0.1456 and $0.1426.
Yesterday I noted we had a break, significance unknown yet, in the 5, 10, 25 and 50day VWAP averages, which had been all descending. The 5day improved from $0.1419 and the 50day was flat. Today the prior trend of all weakening returned. Today they are $0.1424, $0.1448, $0.1505 and $0.1525 for the 5, 10, 25 and 50day VWAP averages respectively.
There was only one larger trade, a 30K buy for $0.1430. It was 39.95% of the day's volume.
Of the traditional TA oscillators I watch, all but ADX related reversed course, going from upticks to weakening. With my thinking the effects of the CEO PR are wearing off, I'm inclined to give a small amount of credence to these moves. However, with abysmal volume I'm going to hold off on that.
The price action pushing the lower Bollinger limit finally had effect as it has started to drop again. That limit has now moved to $0.1388.
The intraday low, which had stayed at $0.14 or slightly better 5 of the last 8 days, dropped to $0.1391 today. In conjunction with that behavior, the descending resistance was challenged by three intraday highs of $0.16 during this period and held. Moreover, the remaining days' highs in that period challenged our known resistance at $0.15 and were rebuffed each time.
With all the above behavior over a string of days and the new CEO PR effects apparently abating I believe this is bearish regardless of the very low volumes. Only the very low volume keeps the confidence level of this assessment down.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.71%, 0.81%, 2.10%, 77.68% and 99.46% respectively. Price spread today was 7.84% vs. 6.21%, 16.19%, 18.52%, 7.07%, 5.08%, 14.29%, 7.78%, 1.67% and 6.60% on prior days.
No trading breakdowns today.
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
06/24 $0.1504 00.13% 13.3%
06/25 $0.1513 +00.62% 19.5%
06/26 $0.1515 +00.11% 28.8%
06/27 $0.1506 00.63% 29.0%
06/30 $0.1478 01.84% 15.3%
07/01 $0.1411 04.54% 22.8%
07/02 $0.1447 +02.53% 72.6%
07/03 $0.1430 01.15% 33.9%
07/07 $0.1379 03.59% 28.6%
07/08 $0.1431 +03.78% 47.1%
07/09 $0.1456 +01.80% 36.2%
07/10 $0.1426 02.10% 16.8%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume tanked today and we switched from two consecutive days of all periods improved to all periods weaker. It looks like the effects of the announcement of the new CEO and board chairman appointment are wearing off. We don't know if we'll just go back to a period of "noise" or we'll start to see a trend. So we exit the waiting a few days for the announcement effects to abate and enter a period of waiting a couple days to see if a trend develops or we just get noise. With only 10 trades and 75K shares traded we certainly don't yet read anything into today's changes.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
104.97 0139.46 0223.90 0589.67 02102.07 06296.39
098.54 0146.79 0210.95 0611.03 02107.24 06343.32
143.86 0210.39 0330.08 0757.17 02422.62 06919.24
799.65 1307.74 2390.47 4575.59 15963.38 52336.74
104.10 0199.41 0403.23 0787.15 02393.96 06938.51
108.62 0217.53 0411.56 0816.02 02392.42 06998.60
139.76 0245.21 0316.56 0901.07 02660.91 07674.85
060.52 0199.11 0279.09 0692.62 01916.57 06132.57
044.61 0157.16 0278.93 0596.82 01584.16 05445.70
061.59 0161.27 0303.10 0692.72 01837.22 06167.52
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/09/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 50, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol: 336501, AvTrSz: 6730
Min. Pr: 0.1401, Max Pr: 0.1488, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1456
# Buys, Shares: 27 121700, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1461
# Sells, Shares: 23 214801, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1454
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.77 (36.17% "buys"), DlyShts 110951 (32.97%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 51.65%
The company announcement of a new CEO and board chairman appointment seems to still be affecting the action today as we had some more VWAP price improvement even though the high was way down. Volume was improved from yesterday's too, but it's still low. The buy percentage dropped from 47.1% to 36.2% though, reinforcing my concern about the volume.
I had failed in the prior post to mention some significant action in the bid/ask movements and it ran across my mind today when I saw the same sort of action for the second consecutive day. I posted a comment about it in APC 347 here. In summary, ATDF and NITE had an extended battle for best offer on the sellside. Part of the ATDF action was normal scalping impetus, I'm sure, but the jostling was much more determined and extended than usual. Since it was reduced a small bit from yesterday I'm hopeful that this is the start of a reduction in selling pressure. But we really won't know for another day or two.
Yesterday and Tuesday I forgot to note that the $0.135 support I expected apparently came into play on Monday, 7/7, as we "bounced" off it and back into the mid$0.14 range. Because of the PR regarding the new CEO appointment appeared we can't make a fair judgment on it though. I'll note only that the four days before the touch occurred we had bottoms near $0.14, which failed to hold. The touch of $0.135 occurred on a higher volume, 500K vs. the prior, newest to oldest, ~326K, ~73.05 and ~170K. This does suggest that it did act as support. That day, 7/7, VWAP was $0.1379 and then it moved to $0.1431 Tuesday and to $0.1456 today. This may mean that we could hang in the $0.14 range for a bit. It's more wait and see though with the volume and price action and PR about the CEO.
Daily short sales percentage directional correlation with buy percentage continued to "behave" as the reduced buy percentage was accompanied by a reduced daily short percentage..
There were no "outliers" today as both the low and the high were both close to other prices and fit the trends of prices. The number of 100 share trades were within normal ranges, in today's case three 100 shares trades and two 500 and three 700 to 800.
Recent VWAPs oldest through today: $0.1506 ($0.1502 if those "outliers" are excluded), $0.1478, $0.1411, $0.1447, $0.1430, $0.1379, $0.1431 and $0.1456.
We've had a break, significance unknown yet, in the 5, 10, 25 and 50day VWAP averages, which were all descending. Today they are $0.1428, $0.1456, $0.1511 and $0.1526 respectively. The 5day improved from $0.1419 and the 50day is flat. Significance can't be judged with confidence because we still have very low volume and, possibly, effects from the CEO change PR.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 7 of the 50 trades, 14.00%. These 156,850 shares were 46.61% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1461. 2 of the larger trades, 28.57%, were buys of 35,000 shares, 22.31% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1456. 5 of the larger trades, 71.43%, were sells of 121,850 shares, 77.69% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1462.
The other 43 trades, 86.00% of the day's trades, traded 179,651 shares, 53.39% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1453. 25 trades, 58.14%, were buys and accounted for 86,700 shares, 48.26% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1463. 18 trades, 41.86%, were sells and accounted for 92,951 shares, 51.74% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1443.
All the oscillators I watch, again except for ADX related, again ticked up today. I'm still waiting another day or so before trying to assess anything.
The price action continued pushing the lower Bollinger limit but the lower limit went flat after being pushed down for six consecutive days. The intraday low improved a wee bit by going no lower than that potential weak, IMO, support at $0.14.
Recall yesterday I mentioned the second consecutive day of our high of $0.16 penetrating a descending resistance. Both days we fell back well below that resistance, which seemed to be at ~$0.157. Today we came nowhere near that resistance. Instead we topped just below our old friend, $0.15. This is not a good sign. However, we do have three consecutive days of higher lows, so keep our fingers crossed that it's more than just another long consolidation period, which seems a likely scenario. A repeated challenge of $0.15 might get us back into the $0.15  $0.18 sideways channel. Unlikely?
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 1.74%, 7.00%, 1.80%, 53.16% and 18.38% respectively. Price spread today was 6.21% vs. 16.19%, 18.52%, 7.07%, 5.08%, 14.29%, 7.78%, 1.67%, 6.60% and 6.67% on prior days.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the first period is only the 15K $0.16 outlier.
10:1710:32: 026151 shrs, 07.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1425, 045.9% buys
10:3513:27: 041500 shrs, 12.33% of vol, VWAP $0.1427, 042.2% buys
13:3014:27: 119300 shrs, 35.45% of vol, VWAP $0.1452, 062.3% buys
14:2914:59: 057000 shrs, 16.94% of vol, VWAP $0.1463, 012.3% buys
15:2115:56: 090050 shrs, 26.76% of vol, VWAP $0.1480, 009.3% buys
15:5715:57: 002500 shrs, 00.74% of vol, VWAP $0.1488, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the lat entry is only the $0.1600 outlier.
$0.1401$0.1420: 038151 shrs, 11.34% of vol, VWAP $0.1407, 000.0% buys
$0.1440$0.1459: 111300 shrs, 33.08% of vol, VWAP $0.1449, 059.6% buys
$0.1460$0.1475: 099500 shrs, 29.57% of vol, VWAP $0.1462, 037.2% buys
$0.1480$0.1488: 087550 shrs, 26.02% of vol, VWAP $0.1482, 021.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
06/23 $0.1506 01.56% 02.8%
06/24 $0.1504 00.13% 13.3%
06/25 $0.1513 +00.62% 19.5%
06/26 $0.1515 +00.11% 28.8%
06/27 $0.1506 00.63% 29.0%
06/30 $0.1478 01.84% 15.3%
07/01 $0.1411 04.54% 22.8%
07/02 $0.1447 +02.53% 72.6%
07/03 $0.1430 01.15% 33.9%
07/07 $0.1379 03.59% 28.6%
07/08 $0.1431 +03.78% 47.1%
07/09 $0.1456 +01.80% 36.2%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume improved a bit today and we got a second consecutive day of all periods improved again. I suspected the announcement of the new CEO and board chairman appointment caused yesterday's improvement. I suspect it's still in effect and we'll need another day or two to try and make any assessment of these calculations' meanings.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
091.97 0140.87 0228.39 0667.19 02113.59 06461.46
104.97 0139.46 0223.90 0589.67 02102.07 06296.39
098.54 0146.79 0210.95 0611.03 02107.24 06343.32
143.86 0210.39 0330.08 0757.17 02422.62 06919.24
799.65 1307.74 2390.47 4575.59 15963.38 52336.74
104.10 0199.41 0403.23 0787.15 02393.96 06938.51
108.62 0217.53 0411.56 0816.02 02392.42 06998.60
139.76 0245.21 0316.56 0901.07 02660.91 07674.85
060.52 0199.11 0279.09 0692.62 01916.57 06132.57
044.61 0157.16 0278.93 0596.82 01584.16 05445.70
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/08/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 37, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol: 219704, AvTrSz: 5938
Min. Pr: 0.1377, Max Pr: 0.1600, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1431
# Buys, Shares: 20 103554, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1467
# Sells, Shares: 17 116150, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1398
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.12 (47.13% "buys"), DlyShts 93722 (42.66%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 80.69%
Today the company announced a new CEO and board chairman appointment. This seems to have affected the action today as we had some price improvement even though volume was lower.
I'm not yet changing my mind on $0.14 not appearing viable. If the improvement in price today was an effect of this announcement and the apparently determined sellers were not swayed, the buying improvement will abate and we'll see behavior where sellers dominate again. This is one of those "wait a couple days" situations.
Daily short sales percentage directional correlation with buy percentage came back today after several days of disconnect, likely due to the very low volumes we've been seeing. Interestingly, due to some unique trade sizes, I was able to identify some buys that were not shorted and calculate that 90.49% of buys were shorted. Also on 7/2, due to some unique trade sizes and very small volume (~73K), I could identify specific trades as being sold short. That day 71.49% of buys were short. I wish I could do this most days but if volume is higher it's just not possible for me to do so.
Our "outlier" today was one buy of 15K shares for $0.16 at 9:30:09, the first trade of the session. The immediately following trades, at various sizes in the first few minutes, were at $0.1401, $0.15 and $0.1411. The next lower prices below $0.16 were $0.15, $0.1490, $0.1450 and $0.1449.
With intraday lowvolume infrequent trading our second potential "outlier" was reached, the low of the day, at 10:50 at $0.1377 on a 30K sell and a later 1K sell at 11:05. The next higher price was a single 10.3K sell at $0.1378 and some volume finally came in at $0.1400. All this was pretty much "in trend" though as price movement was leading to the low and I can't really consider that 30K an outlier with the trend being what it was and the other prices with some volume not being far removed.
Recent VWAPs oldest through today: $0.1515, $0.1506 ($0.1502 if those "outliers" are excluded), $0.1478, $0.1411, $0.1447, $0.1430, $0.1379 and $0.1431. 5, 10, 25 and 50day VWAP averages, are all still descending. Today they are $0.1419, $0.1461, $0.1520 and $0.1526.
Note in the larger trades that if the single 15K $0.16 buy is removed there were only two trades totaling 45K, both sells, one of 15K for $0.1420 and one for 30K at $0.1377, the low of the day. The 30K was also an outlier and that should be considered also.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 3 of the 37 trades, 8.11%. These 60,000 shares were 27.31% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1444. 1 of the larger trades, 33.33%, were buys of 15,000 shares, 25.00% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1600. 2 of the larger trades, 66.67%, were sells of 45,000 shares, 75.00% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1391.
The other 34 trades, 91.89% of the day's trades, traded 159,704 shares, 72.69% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1426. 19 trades, 55.88%, were buys and accounted for 88,554 shares, 55.45% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1445. 15 trades, 44.12%, were sells and accounted for 71,150 shares, 44.55% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1403.
The oscillators I watch, except for ADX related, all ticked up today, probably due to the CEO announcement and low volume with price improvement. I'll be waiting a couple days before trying to assess anything.
The price action continued pushing the lower Bollinger limit down for the sixth consecutive day and the intraday low again penetrated a potential weak, IMO, support at $0.14.
Something I hadn't mentioned is that for the second consecutive day our high of $0.16 penetrated a descending resistance. Both days we fell back well below that resistance, which seems to be at ~$0.157 today. If the single $0.16 trade each of those days is discounted, we did not breach the resistance.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.00%, 0.00%, 3.78%, 56.09% and 46.85% respectively. Price spread today was 16.19% vs. 18.52%, 7.07%, 5.08%, 14.29%, 7.78%, 1.67%, 6.60%, 6.67% and 1.93% on prior days.
Note that if the "outlier" high of $0.16 for 15K shares is removed and we use $0.1500 as the high, the high movement becomes 6.25% instead of +0.00% and the spread becomes 8.93% instead of 16.19%.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes. Note the first period is only the 15K $0.16 outlier.
09:3009:30: 015000 shrs, 06.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1600, 100.0% buys
09:3310:25: 028850 shrs, 13.13% of vol, VWAP $0.1413, 006.9% buys
10:4911:05: 041300 shrs, 18.80% of vol, VWAP $0.1377, 000.0% buys
11:0912:46: 033522 shrs, 15.26% of vol, VWAP $0.1403, 039.4% buys
13:2514:40: 072500 shrs, 33.00% of vol, VWAP $0.1431, 061.8% buys
14:4115:03: 013532 shrs, 06.16% of vol, VWAP $0.1493, 100.0% buys
15:2815:29: 015000 shrs, 06.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1450, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the lat entry is only the $0.1600 outlier.
$0.1377$0.1378: 041300 shrs, 18.80% of vol, VWAP $0.1377, 000.0% buys
$0.1400$0.1411: 058372 shrs, 26.57% of vol, VWAP $0.1403, 019.2% buys
$0.1420$0.1430: 055000 shrs, 25.03% of vol, VWAP $0.1425, 049.6% buys
$0.1449$0.1450: 034500 shrs, 15.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1449, 100.0% buys
$0.1490$0.1500: 015532 shrs, 07.07% of vol, VWAP $0.1494, 100.0% buys
$0.1600$0.1600: 015000 shrs, 06.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1600, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
06/20 $0.1530 00.59% 20.8%
06/23 $0.1506 01.56% 02.8%
06/24 $0.1504 00.13% 13.3%
06/25 $0.1513 +00.62% 19.5%
06/26 $0.1515 +00.11% 28.8%
06/27 $0.1506 00.63% 29.0%
06/30 $0.1478 01.84% 15.3%
07/01 $0.1411 04.54% 22.8%
07/02 $0.1447 +02.53% 72.6%
07/03 $0.1430 01.15% 33.9%
07/07 $0.1379 03.59% 28.6%
07/08 $0.1431 +03.78% 47.1%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume fell off again today and we got the return of potential noise as we switched to all periods improved again. We almost had a trend going, but I suspect the announcement of the new CEO and board chairman appointment cause today improvement.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
078.66 0148.10 0223.43 0692.98 02191.02 06716.74
091.97 0140.87 0228.39 0667.19 02113.59 06461.46
104.97 0139.46 0223.90 0589.67 02102.07 06296.39
098.54 0146.79 0210.95 0611.03 02107.24 06343.32
143.86 0210.39 0330.08 0757.17 02422.62 06919.24
799.65 1307.74 2390.47 4575.59 15963.38 52336.74
104.10 0199.41 0403.23 0787.15 02393.96 06938.51
108.62 0217.53 0411.56 0816.02 02392.42 06998.60
139.76 0245.21 0316.56 0901.07 02660.91 07674.85
060.52 0199.11 0279.09 0692.62 01916.57 06132.57
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/07/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 85, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 75000, Vol: 500365, AvTrSz: 5887
Min. Pr: 0.1350, Max Pr: 0.1600, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1379
# Buys, Shares: 48 143165, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1402
# Sells, Shares: 37 357200, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1369
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:2.50 (28.61% "buys"), DlyShts 176325 (35.24%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 49.36%
I had mentioned in comments recently that $0.14 was not long for this world and that stronger support might exist at $0.135, although I didn't feel it was all that strong and $0.125 was a more likely support if we get there. It looks like we'll find out soon enough. The oscillators I watch, the VWAP movements, the volume up on a VWAP down day, my newer inflection point calculations, ... all suggest a negative slope will continue for now.
From 12:37 forward it appeared that another long string of 100 share buys was going to be seen, but it wasn't able to maintain. Only 28 of the 58 trades from then to the close were for 100 shares as a large number of sells, mostly, and a few buys for other prices and sizes kept breaking the chain. Today was different also because there were mixed buys and sells in the 100 share trades.
Yesterday my TFH caused me to suspect that the owner of the big block to be sold is a good enough customer that his broker, who probably has a marketmaking arm, was chipping in to move the market up to get a better price for those shares.
Today seems to discount that thought and JP's comment that some might be gaming the reversesplit seems more likely.
Our "outliers" today were one buy of 200 shares for $0.16 at 9:30:17, the ninth trade of the session, and one 8K trade for $0.1491 at 11:09. I'm not sure this second is really that far "out of band" as the next lower price of $0.1475 had four buys, all at 9:30, then $0.1474 (one buy) and then a bunch of $0.1419 buys.
Yesterday I thought it looked like "they" were trying to move the market above $0.15, at which time I expect selling to come back in. Half right and wrong. Today doesn't look like an ongoing attempt to move the market up, but the sellers did, indeed, come back in. Buy percentage dropped from yesterdays 33.9%, which wasn't all that strong to start with, and the sell percentage moved from 66.1% to 72.4%. All this while VWAP dropped 3.59% and volume jumped 193.51% to ~500.4K.
Recent VWAPs oldest through today: $0.1513, $0.1515, $0.1506 ($0.1502 if those "outliers" are excluded), $0.1478, $0.1411, $0.1447, $0.1430 and $0.1379. 5, 10 and 25day VWAP averages, are all still descending. Today they are $0.1429, $0.1469 and $0.1527 respectively. We now have the 50day average VWAP dropping for the third consecutive day. Today it is $0.1527 vs. $0.1529, $0.1531 and $0.1530 on prior days.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 9 of the 85 trades, 10.59%. These 249,600 shares were 49.88% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1371. 2 of the larger trades, 22.22%, were buys of 31,000 shares, 12.42% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1409. 7 of the larger trades, 77.78%, were sells of 218,600 shares, 87.58% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1366.
The other 76 trades, 89.41% of the day's trades, traded 250,765 shares, 50.12% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1386. 46 trades, 60.53%, were buys and accounted for 112,165 shares, 44.73% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1400. 30 trades, 39.47%, were sells and accounted for 138,600 shares, 55.27% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1375.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch mostly all reversed from yesterday's trend continuation of all having small ticks up again except MFI was weakened slightly and ADX related was flat. Today all but ADX related have rolled over and have down ticks of varying strengths.
The price action continues pushing the lower Bollinger limit down for the fifth consecutive day. Further, the intraday low penetrated a potential weak support at $0.14, which I didn't believe would offer any real support because it was just the extreme of some sideways trading for the most part, and we closed right on it. Today and the rest of the week should let us know.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 3.57%, 6.74%, 3.59%, 193.51% and 1192.71% respectively. Price spread today was 18.52% vs 7.07%, 5.08%, 14.29%, 7.78% vs. 1.67%, 6.60%, 6.67%, 1.93% and 2.80% on prior days.
Note that if the "outlier" high of $0.16 for 200 shares is removed and we use $0.1491 as the high, the high movement becomes 0.53% instead of +6.74% and the spread becomes 10.44% instead of 18.52%.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:30: 017350 shrs, 03.47% of vol, VWAP $0.1428, 022.2% buys
09:4111:09: 015500 shrs, 03.10% of vol, VWAP $0.1465, 100.0% buys
11:3012:27: 016740 shrs, 03.35% of vol, VWAP $0.1411, 008.6% buys
12:3612:37: 166700 shrs, 33.32% of vol, VWAP $0.1382, 013.8% buys
12:4512:46: 020100 shrs, 04.02% of vol, VWAP $0.1386, 050.2% buys
12:4712:51: 004900 shrs, 00.98% of vol, VWAP $0.1352, 000.0% buys
12:5213:09: 015900 shrs, 03.18% of vol, VWAP $0.1419, 100.0% buys
13:1113:55: 021000 shrs, 04.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1393, 040.5% buys
13:5714:10: 163600 shrs, 32.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1353, 006.1% buys
14:2614:49: 007500 shrs, 01.50% of vol, VWAP $0.1380, 100.0% buys
14:5214:56: 030000 shrs, 06.00% of vol, VWAP $0.1360, 089.3% buys
15:2815:46: 021075 shrs, 04.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1400, 097.6% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1350$0.1360: 273600 shrs, 54.68% of vol, VWAP $0.1355, 009.8% buys
$0.1380$0.1390: 031000 shrs, 06.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1382, 082.3% buys
$0.1400$0.1419: 181415 shrs, 36.26% of vol, VWAP $0.1405, 042.2% buys
$0.1474$0.1475: 006150 shrs, 01.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1475, 100.0% buys
$0.1491$0.1600: 008200 shrs, 01.64% of vol, VWAP $0.1494, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
06/19 $0.1539 +00.25% 66.4%
06/20 $0.1530 00.59% 20.8%
06/23 $0.1506 01.56% 02.8%
06/24 $0.1504 00.13% 13.3%
06/25 $0.1513 +00.62% 19.5%
06/26 $0.1515 +00.11% 28.8%
06/27 $0.1506 00.63% 29.0%
06/30 $0.1478 01.84% 15.3%
07/01 $0.1411 04.54% 22.8%
07/02 $0.1447 +02.53% 72.6%
07/03 $0.1430 01.15% 33.9%
07/07 $0.1379 03.59% 28.6%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, I said yesterday "... I'd think lowvolume induced noise again but there's something different in the trading. Lateday strength with relatively high price and buy percentage. It makes me think someone is playing the reversesplit scenario. We'll have to wait and see". Recalling the odd trading described above, I think it's the TFH scenario of the market being moved so that selling above $0.15 can be done. This seems somewhat supported by the fact that five of the six periods weakened today, meaning that regardless of the apparent improvements there seems little strength.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
065.39 0114.95 0173.16 0757.12 02266.15 06822.91
078.66 0148.10 0223.43 0692.98 02191.02 06716.74
091.97 0140.87 0228.39 0667.19 02113.59 06461.46
104.97 0139.46 0223.90 0589.67 02102.07 06296.39
098.54 0146.79 0210.95 0611.03 02107.24 06343.32
143.86 0210.39 0330.08 0757.17 02422.62 06919.24
799.65 1307.74 2390.47 4575.59 15963.38 52336.74
104.10 0199.41 0403.23 0787.15 02393.96 06938.51
108.62 0217.53 0411.56 0816.02 02392.42 06998.60
139.76 0245.21 0316.56 0901.07 02660.91 07674.85
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/03/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 79, MinTrSz: 40, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol: 170476, AvTrSz: 2158
Min. Pr: 0.1400, Max Pr: 0.1499, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1430
# Buys, Shares: 62 57740, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1458
# Sells, Shares: 17 112736, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1415
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:1.95 (33.87% "buys"), DlyShts 13640 (08.00%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 12.10%
Note that of today's 79 trades 51, 64.56%, were for 100 shares, 47 of which traded at $0.1459, 2 at $0.1460 and 2 at $0.1499. There was also a small odd lot trade of 40 shares at $0.1459.
Further, as noted in a thread started by Iindelco here, the 374K offer (today 364K) we'd been seeing from CDEL and others was pulled, apparently after some early, 9:35  10:09, "fishing lures" resulted in a "normal" trade of 7K at $0.1449. My guess was this may have encouraged the big block seller to try and wait for a better price. The order was there at 10:09 and gone by 10:20.
Then the action got quite curious, as first noted in a thread started here. In summary, "normal" trading ended at 11:39 with roughly 1/7th (14.12%) of the trades being buys. We had dropped from a high of $0.1459 to $0.14 with no bottom in sight. That was twenty trades and VWAP was $0.1421.
From 11:40 through the close, 48 of 59 trades were buys for 100 shares, 44 at $0.1459, followed by 2 $0.1460 and then 2 at $0.1499. Interspersed with these trades were a few at larger sizes and different prices (buy 1,500 @ $0.1459, sell 3K @ $0.1401, ...), leading up to a series of "normal" sized trades dominating in the last 15 minutes. During this 15minute period, 35,036 shares, 20.55% of day's volume, traded at a VWAP of $0.1458, substantially above what had been seen prior to that period.
At EOD we ended with roughly 1/3rd (33.87%) buys. VWAP went from $0.1421 at 11:39 to $0.1430 at EOD. The last three trades of the day were for 100, 500 and 100 shares, all buys at $0.1499.
WARNING: TFH at play. I'm suspecting that the owner of the big block to be sold is a good enough customer that his broker, who probably has a marketmaking arm, is chipping in to move the market up to get a better price for those shares.
Yesterday I said I believed the shareholder approval of the reversesplit had affected the market and I was thinking it will be three more trading days before it might be safe to assess ongoing behavior again.
I now believe that to not be the case. I believe the action we are seeing is related to the TFH theory. Recall many months back I noted the MMs had moved the market where they wanted it to be and we would see some ... I forget what but I remember it happened.
Our "outliers" were already mentioned above  the three buys at the close at $0.1499 totaling 700 shares. The next lower price was a single 2K buy at $0.1475 and then the $0.1460/$0.1459 buys, which had some volume.
Yesterday I noted something was changing here. Today seems to confirm that. It looks to me like "they" are trying to move the market above $0.15, at which time I expect selling to come back in.
Yesterday the buy percentage jumped big to 72.6% from the prior 22.8% and 15.3%. Today it dropped back to a more normal range, 33.9%, regardless of the apparent attempt to manipulate the market, IMO.
Recent VWAPs oldest through today: $0.1504, $0.1513, $0.1515, $0.1506 ($0.1502 if those "outliers" are excluded), $0.1478, $0.1411, $0.1447 and $0.1430. 5, 10 and 25day VWAP averages, are all still descending. Today they are $0.1454, $0.1484 and $0.1537 respectively. We know have the 50day average VWAP dropping for the second consecutive day. Today it is $0.1529, down from $0.1531 and then $0.1530.
On the following keep in mind the odd trading described above.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 3 of the 79 trades, 3.80%. These 52,900 shares were 31.03% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1423. 1 of the larger trades, 33.33%, was a buy of 20,000 shares, 37.81% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1460. 2 of the larger trades, 66.67%, were sells of 32,900 shares, 62.19% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1400.
The other 76 trades, 96.20% of the day's trades, traded 117,576 shares, 68.97% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1433. 61 trades, 80.26%, were buys and accounted for 37740 shares, 32.10% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1457. 15 trades, 19.74%, were sells and accounted for 79836 shares, 67.90% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1422.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch continued acting as they did the prior day  all have small ticks up again except today MFI weakened slightly and ADX related was flat. Low volume continues to call these indicators into question.
The price action continues pushing the lower Bollinger limit down today.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 1.20%, 0.67%, 1.15%, 133.36% and 64.04% respectively. Price spread today was 7.07% vs. 5.08%, 14.29%, 7.78% vs. 1.67%, 6.60%, 6.67%, 1.93%, 2.80% and 2.32% on prior days.
Note that if the "outlier" high and the next lower price are removed and we use $0.1460 as the high, the high movement becomes 1.95% and the spread becomes 4.29%.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3510:42: 020200 shrs, 11.85% of vol, VWAP $0.1454, 087.6% buys
10:4410:57: 042100 shrs, 24.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1438, 000.2% buys
10:5911:39: 063800 shrs, 37.42% of vol, VWAP $0.1400, 000.0% buys
11:4011:52: 001900 shrs, 01.11% of vol, VWAP $0.1459, 100.0% buys
11:5311:53: 001500 shrs, 00.88% of vol, VWAP $0.1459, 100.0% buys
11:5412:15: 001400 shrs, 00.82% of vol, VWAP $0.1459, 100.0% buys
12:1512:15: 000400 shrs, 00.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1401, 000.0% buys
12:1612:21: 000240 shrs, 00.14% of vol, VWAP $0.1459, 100.0% buys
12:2712:27: 003000 shrs, 01.76% of vol, VWAP $0.1401, 000.0% buys
12:2812:39: 000900 shrs, 00.53% of vol, VWAP $0.1459, 100.0% buys
12:4612:46: 009100 shrs, 05.34% of vol, VWAP $0.1454, 100.0% buys
12:4712:50: 024200 shrs, 14.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1461, 100.0% buys
12:5112:51: 001036 shrs, 00.61% of vol, VWAP $0.1402, 000.0% buys
12:5312:53: 000700 shrs, 00.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1499, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
$0.1400$0.1402: 068236 shrs, 40.03% of vol, VWAP $0.1400, 000.0% buys
$0.1430$0.1430: 026000 shrs, 15.25% of vol, VWAP $0.1430, 000.0% buys
$0.1447$0.1450: 029740 shrs, 17.45% of vol, VWAP $0.1449, 037.8% buys
$0.1459$0.1459: 021600 shrs, 12.67% of vol, VWAP $0.1459, 100.0% buys
$0.1460$0.1475: 024200 shrs, 14.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1461, 100.0% buys
$0.1499$0.1499: 000700 shrs, 00.41% of vol, VWAP $0.1499, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
06/18 $0.1535 +01.18% 54.3%
06/19 $0.1539 +00.25% 66.4%
06/20 $0.1530 00.59% 20.8%
06/23 $0.1506 01.56% 02.8%
06/24 $0.1504 00.13% 13.3%
06/25 $0.1513 +00.62% 19.5%
06/26 $0.1515 +00.11% 28.8%
06/27 $0.1506 00.63% 29.0%
06/30 $0.1478 01.84% 15.3%
07/01 $0.1411 04.54% 22.8%
07/02 $0.1447 +02.53% 72.6%
07/03 $0.1430 01.15% 33.9%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, I said yesterday "... I'd think lowvolume induced noise again but there's something different in the trading. Lateday strength with relatively high price and buy percentage. It makes me think someone is playing the reversesplit scenario. We'll have to wait and see". Recalling the odd trading described above, I think it's the TFH scenario of the market being moved so that selling above $0.15 can be done. This seems somewhat supported by the fact that five of the six periods weakened today, meaning that regardless of the apparent improvements there seems little strength.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
048.26 0054.14 0187.48 0700.28 02083.74 06492.57
065.39 0114.95 0173.16 0757.12 02266.15 06822.91
078.66 0148.10 0223.43 0692.98 02191.02 06716.74
091.97 0140.87 0228.39 0667.19 02113.59 06461.46
104.97 0139.46 0223.90 0589.67 02102.07 06296.39
098.54 0146.79 0210.95 0611.03 02107.24 06343.32
143.86 0210.39 0330.08 0757.17 02422.62 06919.24
799.65 1307.74 2390.47 4575.59 15963.38 52336.74
104.10 0199.41 0403.23 0787.15 02393.96 06938.51
108.62 0217.53 0411.56 0816.02 02392.42 06998.60
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/02/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 13, MinTrSz: 552, MaxTrSz: 14000, Vol: 73052, AvTrSz: 5619
Min. Pr: 0.1417, Max Pr: 0.1489, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1447
# Buys, Shares: 10 53052, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1457
# Sells, Shares: 3 20000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1420
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 2.65:1 (72.62% "buys"), DlyShts 37929 (51.92%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 189.65%
The shareholder approval of the reversesplit and reduction in authorized shares was announced today. I believe it has affected the market. I'm thinking it will be three more trading days before it might be safe to assess ongoing behavior again. Just add these last two thoughts to the end of each paragraph below wherein I note a change in behavior. Add in the very low volume as another factor to reduce the level of confidence in any possible conclusions.
We had potential "outliers" today but each accounted for 15.86% of the day's volume so it's hard to view them as such. The low was set by a single 10K sell at 10:57, the first trade of the day, for $0.1417. The next higher priced trades were at $0.1422, 10K of sells. All further higherpriced trades, starting at $0.1449, were buys. The high of the day was established by buys of 1,071 and 8,929 shares at $0.1489. I think these were really one trade in two pieces because of the 10K total and price.
It looks like the sellers aren't in, suggested by a sell percentage of only ~27.4%, and VWAP up another 2.53%, no big offer of 374K at $0.145 from CDEL, and the very low volume.
Yesterday I noted the $0.14 price barely held as several times the best bid was below that  $0.1351, $0.136, $0.1361 and $0.1362  at various points during the day and when bids did come back to the $0.14 area, they never got above $0.143 and spent most of the day in the $0.14 to $0.1406 range. Significantly I noted "In fact, other than the $0.16 buy, no buy occurred above a price of $0.1406. All higherpriced trades below the $0.16 trade were sells".
I said I see no future in the $0.14 price range.
Today's action provides a big variance from that prior behavior and I think I might have to ... revise my thinking? Become cautious? Something is changing here. Did the CDEL 374K seller decide to hold or decide to sell in smaller chunks to avoid moving the market lower? I don't know. I only know this does not reflect the behavior we've been seeing. I suspect the announcement of the approval of the reversesplit and reduction in authorized shares today has affected the market.
The buy percentage jumped big to 72.6% from the prior 22.8% and 15.3%. We'll have to see if this is a trend change, likely due to the reversesplit announcement.
Recent VWAPs oldest through today: $0.1506, $0.1504, $0.1513, $0.1515, $0.1506 ($0.1502 if those "outliers" are excluded), $0.1478, $0.1411 and $0.1447. 5, 10 and 25day VWAP averages, are all still descending. Today they are $0.1471, $0.1495 and $0.1550 respectively.
There were no larger trades today.
Yesterday I noted "Today all the oscillators I watch were "fooled" by that single $0.16 buy. Every one had a minimal up tick. It might be enough to get some traditional TA types to bite and think things are moving up. But the numbers say otherwise". Well, today may suggest they did bite (but note the possible reversesplit announcement's effects) and the oscillators I watch continue acting as they did yesterday  all have small ticks up again. Be wary though  low volume calls these indicators into question.
The price action continues pushing the lower Bollinger limit down today. Current range is $0.1419  $0.1618 vs. $0.1420  $0.1637 and $0.1438  $0.1640 on prior days.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 1.21%, 6.94%, 2.53%, 77.59% and 57.80% respectively. Price spread today was 5.08% vs. 14.29%, 7.78% vs. 1.67%, 6.60%, 6.67%, 1.93%, 2.80%, 2.32% and 1.64% on prior days.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes, interesting only due to the sparseness of trading and relatively large divergence of VWAP in the periods. Note also the difference in buy percentages.
10:5712:06: 021071 shrs, 28.84% of vol, VWAP $0.1423, 005.1% buys
12:2415:59: 051981 shrs, 71.16% of vol, VWAP $0.1456, 100.0% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range, although it's utility may be marginal with the low volume. Note the buy percentages.
$0.1417$0.1422: 020000 shrs, 27.38% of vol, VWAP $0.1420, 000.0% buys
$0.1449$0.1450: 043052 shrs, 58.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1449, 100.0% buys
$0.1489$0.1489: 010000 shrs, 13.69% of vol, VWAP $0.1489, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
06/17 $0.1517 01.47% 21.4%
06/18 $0.1535 +01.18% 54.3%
06/19 $0.1539 +00.25% 66.4%
06/20 $0.1530 00.59% 20.8%
06/23 $0.1506 01.56% 02.8%
06/24 $0.1504 00.13% 13.3%
06/25 $0.1513 +00.62% 19.5%
06/26 $0.1515 +00.11% 28.8%
06/27 $0.1506 00.63% 29.0%
06/30 $0.1478 01.84% 15.3%
07/01 $0.1411 04.54% 22.8%
07/02 $0.1447 +02.53% 72.6%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, I said yesterday "... but the large drop in all periods seems way beyond noise. I believe these readings are suggesting that $0.14 will soon be but a fond memory". Well, it's only one day, but the volume tanked and we're back to all periods improved. I'd think lowvolume induced noise again but there's something different in the trading. Lateday strength with relatively high price and buy percentage. It makes me think someone is playing the reversesplit scenario. We'll have to wait and see.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
034.40 0038.82 0141.96 0753.12 02087.62 06380.34
048.26 0054.14 0187.48 0700.28 02083.74 06492.57
065.39 0114.95 0173.16 0757.12 02266.15 06822.91
078.66 0148.10 0223.43 0692.98 02191.02 06716.74
091.97 0140.87 0228.39 0667.19 02113.59 06461.46
104.97 0139.46 0223.90 0589.67 02102.07 06296.39
098.54 0146.79 0210.95 0611.03 02107.24 06343.32
143.86 0210.39 0330.08 0757.17 02422.62 06919.24
799.65 1307.74 2390.47 4575.59 15963.38 52336.74
104.10 0199.41 0403.23 0787.15 02393.96 06938.51
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
07/01/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
# Trds: 33, MinTrSz: 99, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol: 326007, AvTrSz: 9879
Min. Pr: 0.1400, Max Pr: 0.1600, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1411
# Buys, Shares: 15 74478, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1409
# Sells, Shares: 18 251529, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1411
# Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
Buy:Sell 1:3.38 (22.85% "buys"), DlyShts 89879 (27.57%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 35.73%
No sign of anything but continued downward pressure today.
We had an "outlier" today. The high of the day was a single 2.5K buy at 09:30:11, the third trade of the session, for $0.1600. The next lowest price came on two sells at 9:32:53 of 5K and 6K for $0.1450. They were "in range" of three sells with some volume, ~48.6K, for $0.1430 that occurred from 15:32 to 15:35. So it would be reasonable to look at $0.1450 as a reasonable high if one discounts the $0.16 trade.
As with the recent weeks, it still looks like the sellers are in, suggested by a sell percentage of ~77.2% and VWAP down another 4.54%. ETRF had an offer of 374K at $0.145 entered by 09:32 today. It stayed all day long.
The $0.14 price barely held today as several times the best bid was below that  $0.1351, $0.136, $0.1361 and $0.1362  at various points during the day. When bids did come back to the $0.14 area, they never got above $0.143 and spent most of the day in the $0.14 to $0.1406 range. Buyers were not jumping up and down to catch the $0.1439 offer that was predominate from 11:44 through 15:43. In fact, other than the $0.16 buy, no buy occurred above a price of $0.1406. All higherpriced trades below the $0.16 trade were sells.
With this behavior, I see no future in the $0.14 price range.
The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 8 of the 33 trades, 24.24%. These 212,900 shares were 65.31% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1407. 1 of the larger trades, 12.50%, was a buy of 25,000 shares, 11.74% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1406. 7 of the larger trades, 87.50%, were sells of 187,900 shares, 88.26% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1407.
The other 25 trades, 75.76% of the day's trades, traded 113,107 shares, 34.69% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1418. 14 trades, 56.00%, were buys and accounted for 49,478 shares, 43.74% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1410. 11 trades, 44.00%, were sells and accounted for 63,629 shares, 56.26% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1424.
The buy percentage improved from yesterday's 15.3% to 22.8% today, but that's still anemic. The 10, 25, 50 and 100day buy percentage averages are not looking pretty, being 27.31%, 34.40%, 38.96% and 41.00% respectively. All are falling, although the 10day is trying to flatten. If things go how I believe they will, it may make it. After all, ~27% is not a big challenge to maintain.
Recent VWAPs oldest through today: $0.1530, $0.1506, $0.1504, $0.1513, $0.1515, $0.1506 ($0.1502 if those "outliers" are excluded), $0.1478 and $0.1411. 5, 10 and 25day VWAP averages, are all still descending. Today they are $0.1485, $0.1504 and $0.1562 respectively.
Today all the oscillators I watch were "fooled" by that single $0.16 buy. Every one had a minimal up tick. It might be enough to get some traditional TA types to bite and think things are moving up. But the numbers say otherwise.
The price action continues pushing the lower Bollinger limit down today. Current range is $0.1420 to $0.1637 vs. yesterday's $0.1438  $0.1640.
Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.07%, 5.96%, 4.54%, 51.74% and 12.46% respectively. Price spread today was 14.29% vs. 7.78% vs. 1.67%, 6.60%, 6.67%, 1.93%, 2.80%, 2.32%, 1.64% and 1.91% on prior days.
If we exclude the $0.16 "outlier" mentioned above the day's high becomes $0.1450 and movements of the high becomes 3.97%. The day's spread becomes 3.57%.
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary timeframes.
09:3009:32: 025750 shrs, 07.90% of vol, VWAP $0.1450, 009.7% buys
10:0710:07: 050000 shrs, 15.34% of vol, VWAP $0.1409, 000.0% buys
10:1010:32: 121800 shrs, 37.36% of vol, VWAP $0.1401, 003.1% buys
11:2011:43: 043079 shrs, 13.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1400, 100.0% buys
13:3313:33: 001200 shrs, 00.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1406, 000.0% buys
15:3215:35: 048579 shrs, 14.90% of vol, VWAP $0.1430, 000.0% buys
15:4115:58: 035599 shrs, 10.92% of vol, VWAP $0.1406, 070.5% buys
Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range, although it's utility may be marginal with the low volume.
$0.1400$0.1400: 136879 shrs, 41.99% of vol, VWAP $0.1400, 034.2% buys
$0.1401$0.1406: 080999 shrs, 24.85% of vol, VWAP $0.1405, 031.0% buys
$0.1410$0.1420: 046050 shrs, 14.13% of vol, VWAP $0.1414, 000.0% buys
$0.1430$0.1430: 048579 shrs, 14.90% of vol, VWAP $0.1430, 000.0% buys
$0.1450$0.1450: 011000 shrs, 03.37% of vol, VWAP $0.1450, 000.0% buys
$0.1600$0.1600: 002500 shrs, 00.77% of vol, VWAP $0.1600, 100.0% buys
Some daytoday VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
06/16 $0.1540 01.31% 04.4%
06/17 $0.1517 01.47% 21.4%
06/18 $0.1535 +01.18% 54.3%
06/19 $0.1539 +00.25% 66.4%
06/20 $0.1530 00.59% 20.8%
06/23 $0.1506 01.56% 02.8%
06/24 $0.1504 00.13% 13.3%
06/25 $0.1513 +00.62% 19.5%
06/26 $0.1515 +00.11% 28.8%
06/27 $0.1506 00.63% 29.0%
06/30 $0.1478 01.84% 15.3%
07/01 $0.1411 04.54% 22.8%
Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, I said yesterday "... we now see all 6 periods weaker. I do think this is the trend now, but I expect tomorrow will have lower volume and we could see noise again". We had lower volume, but the large drop in all periods seems way beyond noise. I believe these readings are suggesting that $0.14 will soon be but a fond memory.
_5day_ 10day_ _25day_ _50day_ _100day_ _200day_
316.72 0333.60 1213.34 5732.46 17038.80 53507.42
034.40 0038.82 0141.96 0753.12 02087.62 06380.34
048.26 0054.14 0187.48 0700.28 02083.74 06492.57
065.39 0114.95 0173.16 0757.12 02266.15 06822.91
078.66 0148.10 0223.43 0692.98 02191.02 06716.74
091.97 0140.87 0228.39 0667.19 02113.59 06461.46
104.97 0139.46 0223.90 0589.67 02102.07 06296.39
098.54 0146.79 0210.95 0611.03 02107.24 06343.32
143.86 0210.39 0330.08 0757.17 02422.62 06919.24
799.65 1307.74 2390.47 4575.59 15963.38 52336.74
"Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.
Disclosure: The author is long AXPW.
Additional disclosure: I am very experimental and sometimes do my TA in nontraditional fashions. Keep this in mind when considering anything I post and be sure and consult other sources and do your due diligence. I'm barely responsible for myself and certainly not responsible for anyone else or their actions. :)
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