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H. T. Love
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Spent over 30 years in computer systems work, many different functions. Owned my own business for awhile. Got tired of it (managing employees is not my baliwick) and stopped doing it professionally. Did other things, off and on, for some more years and finally bumped into this investing/trading... More
  • AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 08/01/2014 7 comments
    Aug 2, 2014 12:37 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    Links to blogs older than the 01/01/2014 version, PIPE discussions, one year charts will be found only in that and older blogs. Most historical short sales related stuff has also been chopped.

    In the below chart the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!

    (right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

    AXPW Intra-day Statistics Chart 20140829

    Next are modified inflection point calculation charts bracketing a price chart for comparison.

    The next two identically calculated inflection points are calculated differently from the original above. I have two different presentations of this newer version. The top one has all periods on the same scale. The bottom one has longer periods on the left scale and shorter periods on the right scale. The hope is that shorter period changes will be easier to spot. More work to do, this is a start, hopefully.

    Other changes I want to try are still waiting for me to work on them.

    (right-click and open in new tab, position cursor over image to be able to zoom and scroll)

    AXPW Intra-day Statistics Chart Test IP Calculations 20140829

    Older stuff for "2013 Dly Sht % of 'sells' values", Weekly 85% price summaries going back to 6/14/2012, and some day-to-day VWAP changes stuff going back to 10/09 are available in AXPW: Intra-Day Trade & Buy:Sell Inflection Point Charting Beginning 10/1/2013.

    Believing that the PIPE financing has run it's course, I'm not going to post stuff related that any more. The calculations will still be available if needed though.

    08/29/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 51, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 159800, Vol: 643209, AvTrSz: 12612
    Min. Pr: 0.0830, Max Pr: 0.0940, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0884
    # Buys, Shares: 15 173700, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0901
    # Sells, Shares: 34 459534, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0877
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 9975, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0892
    Buy:Sell 1:2.65 (27.01% "buys"), DlyShts 94205 (14.65%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 20.50%

    Well, RuggedDC's comment in the concentrator put my TFH to shame today as the 800K $0.0911 crossing trade yesterday was an aggressive trade by him to be sure he acquired what he was after. I love it because it puts a temporary kibosh on ATDF's normal 1/100th penny attempts to control both sides of the market and scalp nits.

    He also posted that he placed a 170K bid at $0.088. That got taken today along with another 131.8K at that price.

    Summarizing what I think today, it's back to normal - no signs of strength suggesting an upward movement.

    As part of my TFH erroneous assessment yesterday, I think I got one part right, based on support from today's behavior. I said it gave us a view into sentiment and ended with "So, keeping all that in mind, of the 802K traded 26K (3.24%) were buys and 776K (96.76%) were sells". Today it did improve some, as we should expect since yesterday's sell percentage was an extreme, but it's not showing a lot of strength (yet?) as the buy percentage only made 27% and sell moved to recent normal areas at 71.4% (search for "The selling percentage moved back", without quotes, for a recent string of sell percentages).

    I detailed how bid immediately receded when the $0.0911 was exhausted and suggested this also indicated sentiment. Today suggests that is also a correct concern as the VWAP dropped -2.61% to $0.0884, right in range of the recent averages of $0.0884 and $0.0887 for the 5 and 10-day averages respectively.

    Being that we are in the period when price is to be somewhat stable, or even improve, before dipping again, if that trend is still in place, I would have liked to see a bit more strength appear today. But it's Friday of a long weekend so there's still hope.

    Power ETrade Pro doesn't handle holidays well and doesn't show values for volume and the various oscillators on Memorial Day, when I'm working on this, so I'll have to update these Tuesday. I should've remembered that and snagged their values Friday.

    Yesterday my original non-traditional stuff disagreed with the traditional TA oscillators' bullish indications, as suggested on the original charts. The trend was lower in all periods but for the 200-day, and even that had begun to weaken in the last couple days. My newer version was not quite so consistent because it's designed to include additional factors. But the three shorter periods were in agreement with the original's indications. Today all but one periods is weaker.

    Yesterday I abandoned the "... I'm getting the feeling that the "flat or slightly improved in the last and first weeks of the month" past behavior is going to have a tough time holding" due to the action and my TFH assessment that those who could move the market were doing so. Then when RuggedDC posted, I had to reassess and, combined with the other things I see, am again leaning towards we might have a tough time holding the flat to slightly up behavior we've seen in this period in the past.

    The one thing that has held steady is challenging the $0.085 level where the 590K bid at $0.085, if it still exists, lays. Today's low was $0.083, admittedly an outlier as detailed elsewhere, and our lows have been, starting 8/19: $0.0880, $0.0830, $0.0850, $0.0850, $0.0861, $0.0860, $0.0850, $0.0851 and $0.0830, and averaged $0.0851. Fortunately, so far, our VWAPs have remained substantially higher, with the 5 and 10-day averages at $0.0884 and $0.0887 respectively.

    The NITE 590K $0.085 bid wasn't seen today. Since NITE was on the bid all day at a better price I'm still hopeful the bid is still there but just masked for now.

    Our friendly paint crew gave us a close of $0.094, today's high, with a buy of 1,000 shares at 15:59:31, assisted by the two preceding buys at $0.0939 of 5K at 15:59:11 and 10K at 15:59:28. This is the highest close seen since the $0.0942 on 8/18. It is paired with a low of $0.083, also the open, the lowest low since the $0.083 of 8/20.

    Without those late-day trades the close would be $0.09.

    Here is one reason I hate the tape painting - it makes part of the traditional TA always suspect. Yesterday would have closed at $0.0881 or $0.0871 if not for the painting at $0.0909. Then today's candle pattern would make a bullish engulfing pattern even without the painting today. That engulfing pattern correctly predicts a bullish reversal 64% of the time, per Bulkowski. Because of the constant painting, I will not suggest such a pattern is the case.

    But it may entice some who don't follow as closely as I do. And it may even be accurate, but that manipulation just makes it impossible to judge with any confidence. So I won't. I'll stick with stuff that is harder to manipulate.

    Volume had briefly been rising, 45% and then 78.31%, as VWAP rose 0.10% and 3.36% from prior days. Today volume was down -27.27% as VWAP dropped -02.61%. This occurred even as RuggedDC's $0.088 170K bid was in all day and taken from 12:56 to 12:57 along with another 131.8K at that price at various times. Regardless, here's VWAP percentage changes 8/15 through today, 8/29: -1.62%, -5.18%, -0.31%, -1.75%, -0.65%, -0.53%, -0.11%, +0.34%, +0.10%, +3.36% and -2.61%.

    Yesterday I mentioned directional correlation of buy percentage and daily short percentage may be back but I didn't believe it because of the 800K $0.911 crossing bid. As buy percentage fell -74.81% to 5.1% the daily short percentage fell -60.42% to 1.36%. Well maybe, just maybe, the market is returning to normal because this will be the second day of directional correlation. Today buy percentage increased 430.75% to 27% and daily short sales percentage increased 979.51% to 14.65%. Nothing can yet be suggested from this, other than a possible return to correlation, as there are too few days of correlation to yet call it an established trend again.

    The day's outliers consisted of the painting shares mentioned above and the opening trade of 3,955 shares that set the low of $0.0830. There was no bid or offer at the $0.083 price that I saw. This suggests an internal trade, maybe intra-broker or intra-MM. The next higher bid prices were $0.0851 from NITE, $0.086 and $0.088 at the time.

    Since NITE was in at $0.0851 at the time, the 590K $0.0850 bid, if present, would have been masked.

    The Bollinger limits continue to converge with the upper limit still decreasing its rate of descent and moved from reading $0.1027 to $0.102 today. The lower limit, which was flattening, continues to make small improvements today. It has moved from $0.0854, $0.0848, $0.0844, $0.0845, $0.0847 to $0.085 today.

    The descending channel resistance is ~$0.0906 today and the support is ~$0.0645. After hitting the descending resistance and falling back yesterday, it exceeded the resistance today and closed above it, thanks to the tape painting described above. Close would have been below it at $0.0900 without the painting.

    Today my original inflection point calculations moved from all six periods weakening (keep in mind the 800K $0.0911 crossing bid resulted in a huge sell percentage though), with the four shortest periods having hefty changes, to four improved and two weaker. The four shortest periods are in disagreement with two improved and two weaker. With volume relatively low, but better the last three days, I don't think it's just noise but there's not enough agreement to draw any conclusions.

    The newer calculations went from the 5, 10 and 25-day periods all weaker with the 50, 100 and 200-day periods less weak, to one period marginally improved, the 10-day, and five periods weaker. I suspect this version is more likely correct than the original version. Next day or two should tell.

    The selling percentage moved back to the recent normal range. From 8/15 onward the selling was 84.14%, 55.44%, 47.7%, 68.3%, 60.73%, 78.17%, 78.20%, 71.3%, 94.9% and 71.44% today.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -2.47%, 3.07%, -02.61%, -27.27% and 685.11% respectively. Price spread today was 13.25% vs. 7.17%, 5.88%, 4.53%, 5.69%, 8.24%, 5.88%, 13.25%, 7.05% and 11.74% on prior days.

    Note that the larger trade metrics were affected by a 170K bid at $0.088 and a larger sell into that bid of 159.8K along with a sell of 45K and four 15K sells at that price.

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 11 of the 51 trades, 21.57%. These 404,800 shares were 62.93% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0883. 2 of the larger trades, 18.18%, were buys of 88,000 shares, 21.74% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0900. 9 of the larger trades, 81.82%, were sells of 316,800 shares, 78.26% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0878.

    Note that the smaller trade metrics were affected by 131,800 shares, 20.49% of day's volume, traded at the $0.088 price, the same as the 170K bid. All but one 10K buy were sells.

    The other 40 trades, 78.43% of the day's trades, traded 238,409 shares, 37.07% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0886. 13 trades, 32.50%, were buys and accounted for 85,700 shares, 35.95% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0902. 25 trades, 62.50%, were sells and accounted for 142,734 shares, 59.87% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0876. 2 trades, 5.00%, were unknowns and accounted for 9,975 shares, 4.18% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0892.

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary time-frames. Note the period ending 12:57 contains two of the day's larger trades - a sell of 159K for $0.0880 and a buy of 40K for $0.0900. The period ending 12:53 has one of the larger buys, 48K for $0.0900. The $0.088 bid for 170K from CSTI appeared at the open and patiently waited there as ATDF played the usual 1/100th cent games. This was a winning strategy as the offers trended lower from $0.094 at the open to as low as $0.0899 at 10:04 and then $0.089 at 10:57. Just before the CSTI $0.088 bid was hit the offer was steady at $0.09. Immediately after that order completed the offer dropped to $0.088 (CDEL for 10K) at 12:57.
    09:30-09:30: 007910 shrs, 01.23% of vol, VWAP $0.0841, 000.0% buys
    10:03-10:29: 079000 shrs, 12.28% of vol, VWAP $0.0882, 011.4% buys
    10:57-12:53: 099000 shrs, 15.39% of vol, VWAP $0.0883, 027.1% buys
    12:56-12:57: 277800 shrs, 43.19% of vol, VWAP $0.0887, 037.1% buys
    13:24-15:16: 085999 shrs, 13.37% of vol, VWAP $0.0867, 000.0% buys
    15:30-15:50: 056350 shrs, 08.76% of vol, VWAP $0.0884, 033.5% buys
    15:56-15:57: 021150 shrs, 03.29% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 000.0% buys
    15:59-15:59: 016000 shrs, 02.49% of vol, VWAP $0.0939, 100.0% buys

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the $0.0870-$0.0884 range contains the 159.8K buy for $0.088 that was part of the 170K CSTI bid and the additional 131.8K traded at that price.
    $0.0830-$0.0830: 003955 shrs, 00.61% of vol, VWAP $0.0830, 000.0% buys
    $0.0851-$0.0861: 043955 shrs, 06.83% of vol, VWAP $0.0860, 000.0% buys
    $0.0870-$0.0884: 405474 shrs, 63.04% of vol, VWAP $0.0878, 002.5% buys
    $0.0890-$0.0900: 173825 shrs, 27.02% of vol, VWAP $0.0898, 085.0% buys
    $0.0939-$0.0939: 015000 shrs, 02.33% of vol, VWAP $0.0939, 100.0% buys
    $0.0940-$0.0940: 001000 shrs, 00.16% of vol, VWAP $0.0940, 100.0% buys

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. Keep in mind the $0.0911 "crossing bid" on 8/28 when thinking about these. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
    08/14 $0.0969 -03.56% 09.4%
    08/15 $0.0953 -01.62% 15.5%
    08/18 $0.0904 -05.18% 43.8%
    08/19 $0.0901 -00.31% 37.1%
    08/20 $0.0885 -01.75% 51.3%
    08/21 $0.0880 -00.65% 31.7%
    08/22 $0.0875 -00.53% 39.3%
    08/25 $0.0874 -00.11% 21.7%
    08/26 $0.0877 +00.34% 18.9%
    08/27 $0.0878 +00.10% 20.2%
    08/28 $0.0908 +03.36% 05.1%
    08/29 $0.0884 -02.61% 27.0%

    Here's my newer inflection point calculations. In spite of the odd trading the last couple days, the predicted weakening in these metrics seems to be appearing as we went from the 5, 10, 25-day periods all weaker but the 50, 100 and 200-day periods less weak to one period marginally improved, the 10-day, and five weaker. I'll need to see more consistency though before deciding it's really a trend - volume has been somewhat unstable, although becoming slowly more stable in a somewhat normal range.
    _5-day_ 10-day_ _25-day_ _50-day_ _100-day_ _200-day_
    -213.56 -0346.24 -0590.92 -0929.86 -02269.98 -06180.82
    -228.96 -0302.19 -0717.36 -1085.17 -02658.70 -07442.64
    -218.93 -0282.36 -0691.61 -1072.74 -02349.09 -06946.85
    -175.00 -0284.99 -0657.58 -1053.02 -02330.95 -06797.51
    -155.54 -0288.76 -0636.48 -1006.68 -02154.14 -06267.86
    -065.98 -0278.96 -0639.05 -0982.02 -02075.97 -05875.84
    -079.89 -0279.15 -0624.84 -0978.52 -01917.93 -05424.44
    -089.12 -0281.96 -0624.81 -0957.18 -01872.24 -05205.92
    -111.30 -0260.00 -0638.62 -0929.50 -01879.95 -05021.03
    -154.46 -0276.71 -0646.30 -0909.54 -01655.17 -04243.42
    -174.72 -0229.02 -0677.36 -1032.04 -01772.54 -04889.32

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are omitted from the concentrator.

    On my ORIGINAL inflection point calculations, readings for 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 day periods:
    ---- 1-day change ----
    08/20 +21.0% -00.7% +03.8% +01.3% -00.3% +01.5%
    08/21 +06.9% -06.4% -02.9% -01.3% -00.3% +00.8%
    08/22 +57.6% +00.3% -04.7% -01.7% -03.0% +00.7%
    08/25 -39.4% -06.1% -04.5% -05.5% -00.6% +00.7%
    08/26 -15.8% -04.2% -03.4% -01.5% -02.2% -00.6%
    08/27 -27.2% +04.8% -04.4% -00.4% -03.1% +00.4%
    08/28 -45.4% -16.5% -12.1% -09.4% -03.3% -01.0%
    08/29 -06.7% +21.7% +02.4% -03.7% +03.2% +02.0%
    ---- 5-day change ----
    08/20 +058.9% +019.6% +027.8% +024.7% +072.4% +080.3%
    08/21 +064.2% -002.6% +009.2% +011.8% +048.8% +397.3%
    08/22 +788.2% +240.2% +054.8% +059.4% +1090.9% +334.0%
    08/25 -022.2% -139.2% +002.6% -040.5% -069.7% +008.8%
    08/26 -013.4% -065.0% -025.6% +016.6% -551.9% -026.8%
    08/27 -069.9% +035.4% -072.6% -020.5% -046.1% -034.3%
    08/28 -231.2% -102.9% -054.7% -085.2% -034.7% -089.9%
    08/29 -248.0% +117.8% +024.2% -014.1% +051.6% +638.2%
    ---- 5-day rate of change ----
    08/20 +069.5% +019.0% +059.1% +037.3% +025.0% +019.4%
    08/21 +111.8% +007.7% +043.6% +022.8% -021.1% +062.1%
    08/22 +2618.3% +252.7% +366.1% +159.8% +124.7% +338.6%
    08/25 +015.3% -076.1% +022.9% +087.6% -040.7% +024.0%
    08/26 -004.9% -060.4% -010.5% +025.5% -124.8% -015.9%
    08/27 -063.4% +026.8% -084.9% -045.6% -175.2% -049.5%
    08/28 -119.9% -148.4% -426.1% -111.0% -043.8% -129.6%
    08/29 -1492.4% -531.5% -040.1% -1210.2% +011.1% -243.4%

    On my NEWER inflection point calculations, for those same periods:
    ---- 1-day change ----
    08/20 +020.07% -000.93% +004.92% +001.84% +000.77% +002.15%
    08/21 +011.12% -001.32% +003.21% +004.40% +007.59% +007.79%
    08/22 +057.58% +003.39% -000.40% +002.45% +003.63% +006.25%
    08/25 -021.08% -000.07% +002.22% +000.36% +007.61% +007.68%
    08/26 -011.55% -001.01% +000.00% +002.18% +002.38% +004.03%
    08/27 -024.89% +007.79% -002.21% +002.89% -000.41% +003.55%
    08/28 -038.77% -006.43% -001.20% +002.15% +011.96% +015.49%
    08/29 -013.12% +017.23% -004.81% -013.47% -007.09% -015.22%
    ---- 5-day change ----
    08/20 +050.65% +010.85% +020.06% +016.64% +012.97% +011.23%
    08/21 +066.39% +036.75% +043.30% +047.35% +081.80% +075.37%
    08/22 +620.87% +197.25% +069.51% +075.23% +238.94% +152.57%
    08/25 +001.01% -065.75% +292.24% +304.49% +281.82% +561.75%
    08/26 -012.92% -098.28% -027.80% +008.35% -035.63% -013.74%
    08/27 -050.93% +6193.76% -071.62% +006.90% -005.42% +002.04%
    08/28 -098.30% -051.77% -151.79% -021.36% +010.63% +013.96%
    08/29 -10161.08% +314.34% -290.21% -151.50% -039.19% -051.27%
    ---- 5-day rate of change ----
    08/20 +060.41% +017.48% +033.24% +022.47% +023.65% +019.60%
    08/21 +116.86% +053.93% +086.23% +074.97% +121.13% +099.90%
    08/22 +1176.28% +242.18% +434.31% +179.10% +198.42% +28283.05%
    08/25 +037.10% +008.12% +218.56% +458.31% +171.83% +318.55%
    08/26 -010.03% -035.20% -020.53% -012.89% -040.40% -026.07%
    08/27 -050.77% +009.17% -028.36% -012.07% -010.32% -005.97%
    08/28 -080.12% -039.54% -050.21% -041.21% -047.59% -036.96%
    08/29 -971.43% -121.34% -093.36% -099.31% -082.86% -073.83%

    Rolling 5-day ORIGINAL inflection point calculation aggregate change:
    ******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
    08/20 5 Day -0591.74 -0492.36 -1333.74 -1632.74 -0125.38 -0137.59
    08/21 5 Day -0211.87 -0504.97 -1211.62 -1439.65 -0064.19 +0409.06
    08/22 5 Day +1458.15 +0708.08 -0547.67 -0584.71 +0636.04 +1775.25
    08/25 5 Day +1134.56 -0277.27 -0533.62 -0821.27 +0192.47 +1930.70
    08/26 5 Day +0982.53 -0457.56 -0670.10 -0685.13 -0869.82 +1412.61
    08/27 5 Day +0295.99 -0295.75 -1156.58 -0825.32 -1270.45 +0927.75
    08/28 5 Day -0388.28 -0600.15 -1789.42 -1528.08 -1710.75 +0093.84
    08/29 5 Day -1351.10 +0107.05 -1357.03 -1743.31 -0827.80 +0692.71

    Average change/day, 5 days
    ____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
    08/20 -138.23 -232.18 -142.48 -273.29 +318.96 -447.94
    08/21 +016.25 -214.40 -080.36 -210.89 +251.77 -169.62
    08/22 +441.65 +327.39 +213.88 +126.02 +565.75 +404.77
    08/25 +509.28 +078.29 +262.88 +236.46 +335.67 +501.87
    08/26 +484.53 +031.00 +235.24 +296.69 -083.23 +422.02
    08/27 +177.55 +039.32 +035.43 +161.48 -229.01 +213.07
    08/28 -035.28 -019.03 -115.56 -017.69 -329.31 -063.05
    08/29 -561.85 -120.21 -161.87 -231.72 -292.77 -216.51

    Rolling 5-day NEWER inflection point calculation aggregate change:
    ******* ******* *5 Day** *10 Day * * 25Day ** 50 Day **100Day* 200 Day
    08/20 5 Day -0084.29 -0109.37 -0278.35 -0399.96 -0767.39 -2355.04
    08/21 5 Day -0028.33 -0069.17 -0157.83 -0210.59 -0139.63 -0580.08
    08/22 5 Day +0147.59 +0067.28 -0048.13 -0052.15 +0194.01 +0304.98
    08/25 5 Day +0149.08 +0023.04 +0092.52 +0106.65 +0740.77 +2018.20
    08/26 5 Day +0129.81 +0000.40 +0066.80 +0115.56 +0476.85 +1740.93
    08/27 5 Day +0063.70 +0024.99 +0018.96 +0123.53 +0451.00 +1776.48
    08/28 5 Day +0001.08 +0012.05 -0009.82 +0097.14 +0498.97 +2024.44
    08/29 5 Day -0108.75 +0049.94 -0038.31 -0050.03 +0303.44 +0986.52

    Average change/day, 5 days
    ____ **5 Day *10 Day *25 Day *50 Day 100 Day 200 Day
    08/20 -0022.65 -0053.64 -0071.21 -0123.67 -0265.98 -0960.41
    08/21 +0003.82 -0024.71 -0009.81 -0030.95 +0056.20 -0001.01
    08/22 +0048.74 +0035.14 +0032.79 +0024.48 +0167.71 +0283.97
    08/25 +0066.83 +0037.99 +0104.45 +0136.69 +0455.91 +1188.55
    08/26 +0060.13 +0024.61 +0083.00 +0119.07 +0271.72 +0878.75
    08/27 +0029.60 +0026.87 +0059.46 +0104.70 +0243.68 +0826.31
    08/28 +0005.88 +0016.25 +0029.60 +0061.55 +0127.72 +0520.91
    08/29 -0051.27 -0003.47 +0001.96 +0000.43 +0021.89 +0136.31

    Dly Sht % of 'sells' values JIC it turns out to be useful...
    ============ 2014 ===============
    Mon. 06/02 92.28% 106.34% 21.82% 68.00% 78.39%
    Mon. 06/09 394.94% 36.50% 20.32% 3.25% 59.37%
    Mon. 06/16 3.08% 20.04% 115.38% 123.91% 41.58%
    Mon. 06/23 1.32% 14.66% 42.12% 4.77% 0.00%
    Mon. 06/30 14.06% 35.73% 189.65% 12.10%
    Mon. 07/07 49.36% 80.69% 51.65% 0.96% 25.44%
    Mon. 07/14 710.00% 96.53% 18.18% 12.08% 148.85%
    Mon. 07/21 43.30% 27.77% 115.18% 95.82% 55.57%
    Mon. 07/28 32.52% 8.48% 2.38% 0.86% 40.17%
    Mon. 08/04 5.34% 38.72% 115.70% 3.27% 62.02%
    Mon. 08/11 1.46% 22.26% 0.97% 56.36% 14.46%
    Mon. 08/18 27.74% 13.61% 18.18% 13.97% 10.63%
    Mon. 08/25 23.02% 5.87% 4.81% 1.43% 20.50%

    ============ 2014 ===============
    Mar Avg: 85.68%, min: 16.78%, max: 335.39%
    Apr Avg: 51.85%, min: 10.59%, max: 153.62%
    May Avg: 87.09%, min: 05.48%, max: 558.01%
    Jun Avg: 60.10%, min: 00.00%, max: 394.94%
    Jul Avg: 82.38%, min: 00.86%, max: 710.00%
    Aug Avg: 22.78%, min: 00.11%, max: 115.70%

    0829 Vol 0643209, Sht 0094205 14.65% LHC 0.0830 0.0940 0.0940 b:s 1.11:1
    0828 Vol 0884399, Sht 0011999 01.36% LHC 0.0851 0.0912 0.0909 b:s 1:18.65
    0827 Vol 0496000, Sht 0017000 03.43% LHC 0.0850 0.0900 0.0897 b:s 1:3.53
    0826 Vol 0342069, Sht 0015693 04.59% LHC 0.0860 0.0899 0.0888 b:s 1:4.14
    0825 Vol 0765535, Sht 0137750 17.99% LHC 0.0861 0.0910 0.0890 b:s 1:3.60
    0822 Vol 0729808, Sht 0048701 06.67% LHC 0.0850 0.0920 0.0898 b:s 1:1.55[145]
    0821 Vol 0587450, Sht 0057000 09.70% LHC 0.0850 0.0900 0.0896 b:s 1:2.15[144]
    0820 Vol 0503951, Sht 0043680 08.67% LHC 0.0830 0.0940 0.0909 b:s 1.04:1
    0819 Vol 0262106, Sht 0022328 08.52% LHC 0.0880 0.0942 0.0925 b:s 1:1.69
    0818 Vol 1619708, Sht 0249145 15.38% LHC 0.0860 0.0961 0.0942 b:s 1:1.27
    0815 Vol 1458550, Sht 0177450 12.17% LHC 0.0900 0.1079 0.0974 b:s 1:5.42
    0814 Vol 0402968, Sht 0205700 51.05% LHC 0.0960 0.1050 0.0998 b:s 1:9.60
    0813 Vol 0627170, Sht 0005000 00.80% LHC 0.0960 0.1045 0.0966 b:s 1:4.29[143]
    0812 Vol 0213943, Sht 0034130 15.95% LHC 0.0900 0.1097 0.1000 b:s 1:2.17[142]
    0811 Vol 0498964, Sht 0005617 01.13% LHC 0.0955 0.1069 0.0991 b:s 1:3.34
    0808 Vol 0336537, Sht 0156963 46.64% LHC 0.0905 0.0998 0.0960 b:s 1:3.03
    0807 Vol 0260112, Sht 0005000 01.92% LHC 0.0960 0.0998 0.0963 b:s 1:1.57
    0806 Vol 0120924, Sht 0048450 40.07% LHC 0.0880 0.0954 0.0940 b:s 1.89:1
    0805 Vol 0731659, Sht 0157826 21.57% LHC 0.0851 0.1000 0.0892 b:s 1:1.46[141]
    0804 Vol 2122199, Sht 0083000 03.91% LHC 0.0851 0.1100 0.0870 b:s 1:2.86
    0801 Vol 1072276, Sht 0174305 16.26% LHC 0.0961 0.1099 0.1000 b:s 1.47:1
    0731 Vol 0287546, Sht 0002000 00.70% LHC 0.1010 0.1069 0.1031 b:s 1:4.18
    0730 Vol 0340156, Sht 0007100 02.09% LHC 0.1000 0.1087 0.1060 b:s 1:7.22
    0729 Vol 1000682, Sht 0046100 04.61% LHC 0.1005 0.1169 0.1049 b:s 1:1.19
    0728 Vol 2101508, Sht 0475523 22.61% LHC 0.1010 0.1270 0.1049 b:s 1:2.32
    0725 Vol 1240998, Sht 0472689 38.09% LHC 0.1100 0.1329 0.1151 b:s 1:2.18[140]
    0724 Vol 0357810, Sht 0174600 48.80% LHC 0.1270 0.1349 0.1300 b:s 1:1.04
    0723 Vol 0099869, Sht 0043769 43.83% LHC 0.1300 0.1330 0.1324 b:s 1.63:1
    0722 Vol 0169923, Sht 0023323 13.73% LHC 0.1300 0.1335 0.1310 b:s 1.02:1
    0721 Vol 0546751, Sht 0155300 28.40% LHC 0.1300 0.1379 0.1301 b:s 1:1.91
    0718 Vol 0321777, Sht 0168000 52.21% LHC 0.1330 0.1398 0.1398 b:s 1.85:1
    0717 Vol 0126800, Sht 0011500 09.07% LHC 0.1193 0.1400 0.1350 b:s 1:3.01
    0716 Vol 0452300, Sht 0058457 12.92% LHC 0.1333 0.1500 0.1399 b:s 1:2.46
    0715 Vol 0078025, Sht 0036900 47.29% LHC 0.1362 0.1500 0.1400 b:s 1.04:1
    0714 Vol 0104900, Sht 0063900 60.92% LHC 0.1394 0.1441 0.1400 b:s 10.66:1
    0711 Vol 0138100, Sht 0027600 19.99% LHC 0.1390 0.1444 0.1406 b:s 1:3.67
    0710 Vol 0075100, Sht 0000600 00.80% LHC 0.1391 0.1500 0.1402 b:s 1:4.96
    0709 Vol 0336501, Sht 0110951 32.97% LHC 0.1401 0.1488 0.1488 b:s 1:1.77
    0708 Vol 0219704, Sht 0093722 42.66% LHC 0.1377 0.1600 0.1450 b:s 1:1.12
    0707 Vol 0500365, Sht 0176325 35.24% LHC 0.1350 0.1600 0.1400 b:s 1:2.50
    0703 Vol 0170436, Sht 0013640 08.00% LHC 0.1400 0.1499 0.1499 b:s 1:1.95
    0702 Vol 0073052, Sht 0037929 51.92% LHC 0.1417 0.1489 0.1450 b:s 2.65:1
    0701 Vol 0326007, Sht 0089879 27.57% LHC 0.1400 0.1600 0.1411 b:s 1:3.38

    [140] There was one after-market trade of 400K shares that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 1,240,998 to 1,640,998 and would lower the short percentage from 38.09% to 28.80%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 472,689 to 872,689 and the short percentage would be 53.18%.
    [141] There's 10K fewer shares reported on the FINRA data than I have from ETrade Time and Sales panel and ADVFN Trades screen. I double-checked both ADVFN and ETrade Pro time and sales and can not identify the extra 10K. My assumption is it must have been a cancled trade, incorrect reported trade size, or an erroneously double-reported trade. I've adjusted for this by subtracting 5K from both the buys and sells and removed 10K from the total volume.
    [142] There was one AH trade for 10K shares that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 213,943 to 223,943 and would lower the short percentage from 15.95% to 15.24%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 34,130 to 44,130 and the short percentage would be 19.71%.
    [143] There was one AH trade for 10K shares that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 627,170 to 637,170 and would lower the short percentage from 00.80% to 00.78%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 5,000 to 15,000 and the short percentage would be 2.35%.
    [144] There were two AH trades for 10K shares that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 587,450 to 597,450 and would lower the short percentage from 09.70% to 09.54%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 57,000 to 67,000 and the short percentage would be 11.21%.
    [145] There was one pre-market trade for 24.5K shares that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 729,808 to 754,308 and would lower the short percentage from 06.67% to 06.46%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 48,701 to 73,201 and the short percentage would be 09.70%.

    08/28/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 31, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 336011, Vol: 884399, AvTrSz: 28529
    Min. Pr: 0.0851, Max Pr: 0.0912, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0908
    # Buys, Shares: 7 44999, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0900
    # Sells, Shares: 24 839400, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0908
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:18.65 (05.09% "buys"), DlyShts 11999 (01.36%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 1.43%

    The single most important thing today, to my mind, was an 800K $0.0911 "crossing bid" entered when best offer was $0.0899. I commented on it at the time in the concentrator. The short thread begins with this comment. John says in that thread that it seems to be a process he's heard of called "sweeping the street" and also suggests that it indicates the market is returning to equilibrium. If "sweeping the street" is an indication of a natural return to "equilibrium", all I can say is that I learn something new almost every day.

    I think it indicates the type of tools the financial industry can employ to accomplish the goals typical of investment bankers such as GS and others.

    Importantly, I think, is that it gave us a view into sentiment. Think about the numbers and narrative that follow and I think one realizes just how much of a rush to the exit occurred when a bid suddenly appeared above "the market" at that time. The sell percentage provides a good summary - for the whole day 94.9% sells.

    The $0.0911 bid took out all shares offered at $0.0899 and $0.0900 (three buys for 26K) and then sat there as the best bid, getting hammered. There was one $0.0912 sell that sneaked (for us "old school" types, "snuck") in there. Anyway, from 14:48 through 15:16 all 800K bid was satisfied as sells, but for those three buys.

    During the time the $0.0911 bid was in place, the first two levels of offers it took out, $0.0899 and $0.0900 that were already in place, are classified as "buys". But keep in mind these offers were in place when the bid was at $0.0870. The 2K sell at $0.0912 was the only trade, other than those initial three below the $0.0911 bid, above the bid of $0.0911.

    So, keeping all that in mind, of the 802K traded 26K (3.24%) were buys and 776K (96.76%) were sells.

    At 15:16, when the sellers rush ended, bid dropped immediately to $0.0870/1 and remained there until 15:29 when a bid of $0.088 appeared. At 15:34 it improved to $0.0881 via the "ATDF Effect". The offer dropped first to $0.091 immediately at 15:16 and then $0.0909 at 15:26. In the last 34 minutes there were four trades, two buys at $0.0909 (the last trades of the day - our painting for the day) and two sells, one at $0.0871 and then one $0.0881. These four trades totaled 5,999 shares.

    This had some potentially beneficial effects, other than just giving some anxious sellers a much better price than they may have expected. It raised the VWAP to $0.0908, a 3.70% improvement from what had been achieved just prior to the bid's appearance, a VWAP of $0.0876 on 76,400 shares traded with 15,000 buys (19.63%) and 61,400 sells (80.37%). Volume was improved to 884,399 traded, a 1,057.59% improvement in ~1.25 hours.

    On the traditional TA charts a close the highest since the $0.0909 of 8/20 might cause some to suspect a bullish sentiment. Our close was also $0.0909, thanks to the paint crew hitting the offer with the last two trades, as they have been semi-reliably doing for a long time now.

    It also produced a high that was right at my medium-term descending trading channel resistance, which might cause some to think sentiment exists that will try and break above, if they happen to have a channel similar to mine.

    With so many oscillators keying on the close, it also caused RSI, ADX related, accumulation/distribution, MFI, momentum, Williams %R and full stochastic to show upticks. All but full stochastic are still well below neutral though. The MACD histogram made a small move further above its neutral point to 0.002 - not a screaming buy signal yet. It's been hovering just above neutral for some time, since around 8/11 and could not move higher in a sustained trend.

    All this was reinforced with a rise in volume. After all, these folks DO know what they are doing!

    My original non-traditional stuff disagrees with all this. Take a look at the charts and note the trend lower in all periods but for the 200-day. Even that has begun to get affected in the last couple days though. My newer version is not quite so consistent because it's designed to include additional factors. But the three shorter periods are in agreement with the original's indications.

    Yesterday I commented "... I'm getting the feeling that the "flat or slightly improved in the last and first weeks of the month" past behavior is going to have a tough time holding".

    Well, strike that. If what is going on is what my TFH tells me, we will have no problem at all holding and even going higher over the next few days, at least.

    My TFH also explains why the short percentage is where it's at too. This is not the normal market now. It's being driven by those with the means to drive it.

    Regardless, I noted that we had begun challenging the $0.085 level where the 590K bid at $0.085, if it still exists, lays. I also said "I now worry even more than before that the $0.0850/1 level won't hold up. Low volume might allow it to hold, but if we get high volume due to these large trades, I think not". Pshaw! I had no idea of the forces that were gearing up to move the market. Even so, prior to the crossing bid, our low had been set at $0.0851.

    The NITE 590K wasn't seen today. Since NITE was on the bid all day at a better price I'm still hopeful (changed from "it's likely") the bid is still there but just masked for now.

    Our friendly paint crew gave us a close of $0.0909 today with two buys totaling 3,999 shares. The trades just before were sells at $0.0881 and $0.0871 for 1K each.

    Yesterday volume was up 45% from the prior day and even with the 190K (see yesterday's post below) removed it was down only 10.54% to ~306K. Today volume was up 78.31%. But do keep in mind the numbers and narrative above and make your own judgment what volume might have been without an 800K crossing bid giving the sellers an unexpected "gift". I had been thinking that low volume would be the key to slowing our VWAP decline. I never considered the possibility of a large crossing bid. Regardless, here's VWAP percentage changes 8/14 through today, 8/28: -3.56%, -1.62%, -5.18%, -0.31%, -1.75%, -00.65%, -00.53%, -00.11%, 00.34%, +00.10% and +3.36%.

    The directional correlation of buy percentage and daily short percentage may be back as buy percentage fell -74.81% to 5.1% and daily short percentage fell -60.42% to 1.36%. But I don't believe it using today's behavior. Further, I expect the ... "unusual behavior" to continue for a bit.

    There were a couple outliers today. The day's low of $0.0851 occurred at 12:38, before the crossing bid appeared, on a sell of 2.5K shares. The day's high of $0.0912 came during the time the crossing bid was in effect, at 14:52 on a sell of 2K shares. It's unusual to have the day's high set on a sell I think, but I haven't bothered to check.

    The Bollinger limits continue to converge with the upper limit still decreasing its rate of descent and moved from reading $0.1041 to $0.1027 today. The lower limit, which was flattening, made a small improvement today. It has moved from $0.0854, $0.0848, $0.0844, $0.0845 to $0.0847 today.

    The descending channel resistance is ~$0.0912 today and the support is ~$0.067. Yesterday I said "Today we'll likely see price bump the descending resistance and fall back". Today it hit the resistance at 14:52, during the crossing bid time, and fell back.

    Yesterday my original inflection point calculations moved from all six periods more negative to two marginally improved and four weaker. With the volume relatively low, it might have just been noise but two of the three shortest periods, the 5 and 25-day, were weakening. Today, even with the crossing bid coming in, all six periods are weaker. The four shortest periods have hefty changes too.

    The newer calculations held somewhat steady-state with the 5, 10, 25-day periods all weaker but the 50, 100 and 200-day periods are less weak. The net here is a three and three split. I am concerned that the three shortest periods, which should generally lead, are weaker.

    I mentioned the buy percentage improvement yesterday, going from 18.9% to 20.2%, was hardly worth mentioning. Without the 190K trade it would have been 32.7%, a decent figure. Today even with the 800K crossing bid it dropped from 20.2% to 5.1%.

    I noted yesterday "The slow decline in selling, which had temporarily reversed and increased selling, may be back. It's too soon to tell". From 8/14 onward the selling was 90.57%, 84.14%, 55.44%, 47.7%, 68.3%, 60.73%, 78.17%, 78.20%, 71.3% and 94.9% today.

    For the following keep the "crossing bid" discussion in mind.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.12%, 1.33%, 03.36%, 78.31% and -29.42% respectively. Price spread today was 7.17% vs. 5.88%, 4.53%, 5.69%, 8.24%, 5.88%, 13.25%, 7.05%, 11.74% and 19.89% on prior days.

    Note that the $0.0911 "crossing bid" accounted for 100% of the day's "larger trades".

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 5 of the 31 trades, 16.13%. These 751,500 shares were 84.97% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0911. None of the larger trades were buys or unknowns.

    Note that the $0.0911 "crossing bid" accounted for 7.5K, only 5.64%, of the day's "smaller trades".

    The other 26 trades, 83.87% of the day's trades, traded 132,899 shares, 15.03% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0888. 7 trades, 26.92%, were buys and accounted for 44,999 shares, 33.86% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0900. 19 trades, 73.08%, were sells and accounted for 44,999 shares, 33.86% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0900. 19 trades, 73.08%, were sells and accounted for 87,900 shares, 66.14% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0881.

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary time-frames. Note the period ending 15:16 contains the 800K (est.) crossing trade entered at ~14:48 for $0.0911 when the offer was $0.0899. The offers immediately adjusted upward to $0.09 and then $0.094. When the 800K had been satisfied at 15:16 offer dropped back to $0.091 and 10 minutes later to $0.0909.
    09:33-11:51: 019000 shrs, 02.15% of vol, VWAP $0.0871, 000.0% buys
    12:38-13:07: 033400 shrs, 03.78% of vol, VWAP $0.0881, 044.9% buys
    13:41-14:44: 024000 shrs, 02.71% of vol, VWAP $0.0871, 000.0% buys
    14:48-15:16: 802000 shrs, 90.68% of vol, VWAP $0.0911, 003.2% buys
    15:26-15:53: 005999 shrs, 00.68% of vol, VWAP $0.0898, 066.7% buys

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the $0.0880-$0.0889 range contains the 190K sell for $0.08887. Note the last price range resulted from the 800K crossing bid for $0.0911. The difference in volume was due to some shares being taken at the lower price range and there was one 2K trade taken at the highest price in the period, $0.0912.
    $0.0851-$0.0851: 002500 shrs, 00.28% of vol, VWAP $0.0851, 000.0% buys
    $0.0860-$0.0863: 011500 shrs, 01.30% of vol, VWAP $0.0860, 000.0% buys
    $0.0870-$0.0875: 038400 shrs, 04.34% of vol, VWAP $0.0871, 000.0% buys
    $0.0880-$0.0899: 037000 shrs, 04.18% of vol, VWAP $0.0893, 070.3% buys
    $0.0900-$0.0912: 794999 shrs, 89.89% of vol, VWAP $0.0911, 002.4% buys

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
    08/13 $0.1005 +00.74% 18.9%
    08/14 $0.0969 -03.56% 09.4%
    08/15 $0.0953 -01.62% 15.5%
    08/18 $0.0904 -05.18% 43.8%
    08/19 $0.0901 -00.31% 37.1%
    08/20 $0.0885 -01.75% 51.3%
    08/21 $0.0880 -00.65% 31.7%
    08/22 $0.0875 -00.53% 39.3%
    08/25 $0.0874 -00.11% 21.7%
    08/26 $0.0877 +00.34% 18.9%
    08/27 $0.0878 +00.10% 20.2%
    08/28 $0.0908 +03.36% 05.1%

    Here's my newer inflection point calculations. We have transitioned from the two shorter periods to the three shorter periods showing the early stages of what I had expected would be some marginal weakening. I noted yesterday "The 25-day period is preparing to join the trend, going from marginal improvement to flat today". It did that. On a (not much) better note, the 100-day moved from weakening and showed a very small improvement.
    _5-day_ 10-day_ _25-day_ _50-day_ _100-day_ _200-day_
    -127.20 -0219.59 -0478.65 -0796.09 -02014.51 -05687.78
    -213.56 -0346.24 -0590.92 -0929.86 -02269.98 -06180.82
    -228.96 -0302.19 -0717.36 -1085.17 -02658.70 -07442.64
    -218.93 -0282.36 -0691.61 -1072.74 -02349.09 -06946.85
    -175.00 -0284.99 -0657.58 -1053.02 -02330.95 -06797.51
    -155.54 -0288.76 -0636.48 -1006.68 -02154.14 -06267.86
    -065.98 -0278.96 -0639.05 -0982.02 -02075.97 -05875.84
    -079.89 -0279.15 -0624.84 -0978.52 -01917.93 -05424.44
    -089.12 -0281.96 -0624.81 -0957.18 -01872.24 -05205.92
    -111.30 -0260.00 -0638.62 -0929.50 -01879.95 -05021.03
    -154.46 -0276.71 -0646.30 -0909.54 -01655.17 -04243.42

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.

    08/27/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 39, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 190000, Vol: 496000, AvTrSz: 12718
    Min. Pr: 0.0850, Max Pr: 0.0900, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0878
    # Buys, Shares: 11 100200, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0887
    # Sells, Shares: 23 353500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0876
    # Unkn, Shares: 5 42300, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0878
    Buy:Sell 1:3.53 (20.20% "buys"), DlyShts 17000 (03.43%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 4.81%

    John was kind enough to inform me that the warrant conversions are done and those shares would show up in FINRA short reports in this comment. So that's one thing I can stop mulling.

    It does raise another concern though. With the short percentage being at such a low average of 15.02% this month indicating that it's not a lot of PIPErs selling, selling percentage being so high, 66.36% for this month, I have to guess that the selling pressure is coming from retail investors.

    Combined with everything else I'm seeing in the data, I'm getting the felling that the "flat or slightly improved in the last and first weeks of the month" past behavior is going to have a tough time holding. As I had mentioned, I was uncertain if the pattern would hold, albeit I was worried for the wrong reason apparently.

    We have now started challenging the $0.085 level where the 590K bid at $0.085, if it still exists, lays. If we continue seeing these large blocks account for such a high percentage of daily volume, I now worry even more than before that the $0.0850/1 level won't hold up. Low volume might allow it to hold, but if we get high volume due to these large trades, I think not.

    The NITE 590K wasn't seen today. Since NITE was on the bid all day at a better price I am hopeful (changed from "it's likely") the bid is still there but just masked for now.

    Our friendly paint crew gave us a close of $0.0897 today with a buy. If they had been goofing off the close would have been $0.0850 (one of several 500 share "lures" to the downside today), which would have been at the day's low. Instead we got a close 5.53% above the two prior sells of $0.0850 for 500 shares each, and 1.13% above the 190K sell for $0.0887 just before them.

    I noted yesterday "After two days of increased volume, the second due to several very large trades mostly, I can't say today's 55% volume decline is surprising or concerning". Today it was up 45% from yesterday and even with the 190K removed it's down only 10.54% to ~306K. My thought that lower volume was needed to slow our price descent seems to be in play still. Here's VWAP percentage changes 8/13 through today, 8/28: 0.74%, -3.56%, -1.62%, -5.18%, -0.31%, -1.75%, -00.65%, -00.53%, -00.11%, 00.34% and +00.10%.

    The directional correlation of buy percentage and daily short percentage is still broken as buy percentage improved and daily short percentage fell. This suggests some underlying condition changed or was changing.

    There were no out-of-hours trades today.

    There were no price outliers today. The was a trade size outlier though - a 190K sell for $0.0887 at 15:37 representing 38.31% of the day's volume. Without this trade volume would be 306,000 shares and VWAP would be $0.0872 instead of $0.0878. There's another 10K at the same price 27 seconds earlier that I think was part of the order. I think this because all the other trades in that time-frame were $0.0880 - $0.0850 before it and $0.0850 - $0.0897 (today's paint stripe) after it.

    On the traditional TA front, the low finally gave up holding around the $0.086 area and went to $0.0850 today. The highs had been getting lower six of the prior seven days, but today was 1/100th of a penny higher than yesterday's - we take what we can get. The oscillators I watch continue mixed with ADX related continuing flat, full stochastic still curling up and getting above neutral, and MFI continuing to marginally improve. RSI made a very small improvement today and is struggling to stay out of oversold, momentum deteriorated from flat to weaker, and Williams %R stopped weakening and made a small improvement. Accumulation/distribution is still in a very slow marginal up trend. No help in prognostication resides in these readings right now.

    The Bollinger limits continue to converge with the upper limit still decreasing its rate of descent and is reading $0.1041 today. The lower limit continues to flatten, moving from $0.0854 to $0.0848 to $0.0844 and $0.0845 today.

    The descending channel resistance is ~$0.0925 today and the support is ~$0.069. Today we'll likely see price bump the descending resistance and fall back.

    As before, all in all the traditional TA stuff suggested no change - continued slow weakening seems to be the order of the day.

    Yesterday my original inflection point calculations had all six periods more negative. Today two are marginally improved and four are weaker. With the volume relatively low, might just be noise but two of the three shortest periods, the 5 and 25-day, are weakening.

    The newer calculations are in a similar state with the 5, 25 and 100-day periods weaker. But the net here is a three and three split.

    So there's little here with positive indications.

    ARCA was absent today.

    Buy percentage improved today, going from 18.9% to 20.2% - hardly worth mentioning. Without the 190K trade it would have been 32.7%, a decent figure. The slow decline in selling, which had temporarily reversed and increased selling, may be back. It's too soon to tell. From 8/14 onward the selling was 90.57%, 84.14%, 55.44%, 47.7%, 68.3%, 60.73%, 78.17%, 78.20% and 71.3% today.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -1.16%, 0.11%, 00.10%, 45.00% and 8.33% respectively. Price spread today was 5.88% vs. 4.53%, 5.69%, 8.24%, 5.88%, 13.25%, 7.05%, 11.74%, 19.89% and 9.38% on prior days.

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 6 of the 39 trades, 15.38%. These 325,200 shares were 65.56% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0881. 1 of the larger trades, 16.67%, was a buy of 35,200 shares, 10.82% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0900. 5 of the larger trades, 83.33%, were sells of 290,000 (included the 190K at $0.0887) shares, 89.18% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0879.

    The other 33 trades, 84.62% of the day's trades, traded 170,800 shares, 34.44% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0872. 10 trades, 30.30%, were buys and accounted for 65,000 shares, 38.06% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0879. 18 trades, 54.55%, were sells and accounted for 63,500 shares, 37.18% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0859. 5 trades, 15.15%, were sells and accounted for 42,300 shares, 24.77% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0878.

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary time-frames. Note the period of 15:37 contains the day's largest trade, a sell of 190K for $0.887.
    09:30-09:30: 050000 shrs, 10.08% of vol, VWAP $0.0894, 070.4% buys
    09:46-10:56: 020500 shrs, 04.13% of vol, VWAP $0.0860, 000.0% buys
    11:01-11:57: 085500 shrs, 17.24% of vol, VWAP $0.0864, 011.7% buys
    12:11-13:02: 034500 shrs, 06.96% of vol, VWAP $0.0867, 000.0% buys
    13:16-14:03: 078500 shrs, 15.83% of vol, VWAP $0.0870, 056.1% buys
    14:07-15:11: 003000 shrs, 00.60% of vol, VWAP $0.0853, 000.0% buys
    15:20-15:35: 022000 shrs, 04.44% of vol, VWAP $0.0877, 000.0% buys
    15:37-15:37: 200000 shrs, 40.32% of vol, VWAP $0.0887, 005.0% buys
    15:49-15:56: 002000 shrs, 00.40% of vol, VWAP $0.0874, 050.0% buys

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the $0.0880-$0.0889 range contains the 190K sell for $0.08887.
    $0.0850-$0.0859: 024500 shrs, 04.94% of vol, VWAP $0.0857, 069.4% buys
    $0.0860-$0.0861: 136000 shrs, 27.42% of vol, VWAP $0.0860, 000.0% buys
    $0.0875-$0.0879: 027500 shrs, 05.54% of vol, VWAP $0.0876, 036.4% buys
    $0.0880-$0.0889: 261800 shrs, 52.78% of vol, VWAP $0.0886, 010.3% buys
    $0.0890-$0.0897: 011000 shrs, 02.22% of vol, VWAP $0.0891, 100.0% buys
    $0.0900-$0.0900: 035200 shrs, 07.10% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 100.0% buys

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
    08/12 $0.0998 -01.21% 31.5%
    08/13 $0.1005 +00.74% 18.9%
    08/14 $0.0969 -03.56% 09.4%
    08/15 $0.0953 -01.62% 15.5%
    08/18 $0.0904 -05.18% 43.8%
    08/19 $0.0901 -00.31% 37.1%
    08/20 $0.0885 -01.75% 51.3%
    08/21 $0.0880 -00.65% 31.7%
    08/22 $0.0875 -00.53% 39.3%
    08/25 $0.0874 -00.11% 21.7%
    08/26 $0.0877 +00.34% 18.9%
    08/27 $0.0878 +00.10% 20.2%

    Here's my newer inflection point calculations. The two shorter periods continue showing the early stages of what I expect will be some marginal weakening. The 25-day period is preparing to join the trend, going from marginal improvement to flat today.
    _5-day_ 10-day_ _25-day_ _50-day_ _100-day_ _200-day_
    -090.71 -0175.62 -0379.23 -0653.06 -01563.56 -04442.46
    -127.20 -0219.59 -0478.65 -0796.09 -02014.51 -05687.78
    -213.56 -0346.24 -0590.92 -0929.86 -02269.98 -06180.82
    -228.96 -0302.19 -0717.36 -1085.17 -02658.70 -07442.64
    -218.93 -0282.36 -0691.61 -1072.74 -02349.09 -06946.85
    -175.00 -0284.99 -0657.58 -1053.02 -02330.95 -06797.51
    -155.54 -0288.76 -0636.48 -1006.68 -02154.14 -06267.86
    -065.98 -0278.96 -0639.05 -0982.02 -02075.97 -05875.84
    -079.89 -0279.15 -0624.84 -0978.52 -01917.93 -05424.44
    -089.12 -0281.96 -0624.81 -0957.18 -01872.24 -05205.92
    -111.30 -0260.00 -0638.62 -0929.50 -01879.95 -05021.03

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are are in the latest daily post above.

    08/26/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 24, MinTrSz: 693, MaxTrSz: 81000, Vol: 342069, AvTrSz: 14253
    Min. Pr: 0.0860, Max Pr: 0.0899, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0877
    # Buys, Shares: 9 64569, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0897
    # Sells, Shares: 12 267500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0872
    # Unkn, Shares: 3 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0882
    Buy:Sell 1:4.14 (18.88% "buys"), DlyShts 15693 (04.59%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 5.87%

    The $0.085/6 support continues holding so far. If the trend of flat or slightly improved prices in the last and first week of each month is still active, $0.085/6 should hold through this and next week. We don't know if the trend is still active though. This is because I wonder if there's some warrant conversions at the new 1.7 ratio going on here with selling restrictions much tighter than in the past.

    Today's drop in buy percentage is not yet worrisome because it was due to just a few large sells skewing the ratio on a low-volume day. 8 of the 24 trades accounted for 79.19% of day's volume and 7 were sells of 240,500 shares, 70.31% of today's volume. It is something to keep an eye on though, especially in light of today being the second consecutive day of dropping buy percentage, the low daily short sales percentages, and the possibility that warrant conversions might be involved, which I'll never know for sure.

    The NITE 590K wasn't seen today. Since NITE was on the bid all day at a better price it's likely the bid is still there but just masked for now.

    Our friendly paint crew gave us a close of $0.0888 today. If they had been goofing off the close would have been $0.0860, within the price range that accounted for most of our trading today.

    After two days of increased volume, the second due to several very large trades mostly, I can't say today's 55% volume decline is surprising or concerning. We've just moved to a slightly below normal level. My thought that lower volume was needed to slow our price descent seems to be in play still. Here's VWAP percentage changes 8/13 through today, 8/22: 0.74%, -3.56%, -1.62%, -5.18%, -0.31%, -1.75%, -00.65%, -00.53%, -00.11% and 00.34%.

    Yesterday the directional correlation of buy percentage and daily short percentage seemed broken as buy percentage dropped and daily short percentage rose. This suggested some underlying condition changed or was changing. Today buy percentage and daily short sales percentage dropped. It's just one day though so we'll need to wait and see if the normal behavior seems to have returned or not.

    There were no out-of-hours trades today.

    There were no price outliers today.

    On the traditional TA front there's not a lot to talk about. Our low is still holding up well around the $0.086 area even as the highs are getting lower - six of the last seven days. The oscillators I watch continue mixed with ADX related moving from marginally improved to absolutely flat today, full stochastic still curling up (slowly) and MFI continuing to marginally improve. RSI weakened and is struggling to stay out of oversold, momentum was almost flat, and Williams %R weakened some more. Accumulation/distribution is still in a very slow marginal up trend. No help in prognostication resides in these readings right now.

    The Bollinger limits continue to converge with the upper limit still decreasing its rate of descent and is reading $0.1059 today. The lower limit continues to flatten, moving from $0.0854 to $0.0848 to $0.0844 today. Mid-point would be ~$0.0952 today, about a half penny above the top of our trading today.

    The descending channel resistance is ~$0.095 today and the support is ~$0.072. So our current trading range remains slightly above the mid-range.

    All in all, the traditional TA stuff suggests no change - continued slow weakening seems to be the order of the day. However, if volume weakens further, our descent could halt ... or become much more volatile.

    Two day's back I noted my non-traditional stuff's move towards less negativity broke a little bit in the original version, which went to three improved and three weaker from the prior day's five periods marginally improved and one minimally weaker. Yesterday the five-day went from much more positive to more negative by a noticeable amount and four of the other five periods weakened with only the 200-day showing a small improvement.

    Today all six periods are more negative. Not by large amounts, but not small either. This bears watching.

    Similarly, the newer calculations, which had been, in aggregate, improving for four days, yesterday signaled a coming change as it went mixed with the two shortest periods weakening while the longer periods continued improving, marginally. Today the 5 and 10-day periods are weaker, the 25-day is flat and the 50, 100 and 200-day periods are still showing a small improvement. The shorter periods are leading and more sensitive to change than the longer periods. This makes me think the turn to all weakening will complete in a couple days. However, they are all small changes, so I could end up wrong, and even if not the indications may be weak.

    ARCA was absent today.

    Buy percentage dropped today. Most of this was due to the large blocks mentioned above. The slow decline in selling has (temporarily?) reversed as we now have two consecutive days of higher percentages. From 8/13 onward the selling was 81.10%, 90.57%, 84.14%, 55.44%, 47.7%, 68.3%, 60.73%, 78.17% and 78.20% today.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -0.12%, -1.21%, 00.34%, -55.32% and -88.61% respectively. Price spread today was 4.53% vs. 5.69%, 8.24%, 5.88%, 13.25%, 7.05%, 11.74%, 19.89%, 9.38% and 8.85% on prior days.

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 8 of the 24 trades, 33.33%. These 270,876 shares were 79.19% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0876. 1 of the larger trades, 12.50%, was a buy of 30,376 shares, 11.21% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0898. 7 of the larger trades, 87.50%, were sells of 240,500 shares, 88.79% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0873.

    The other 16 trades, 66.67% of the day's trades, traded 71,193 shares, 20.81% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0883. 8 trades, 50.00%, were buys and accounted for 34,193 shares, 48.03% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0896. 5 trades, 31.25%, were sells and accounted for 27,000 shares, 37.93% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0867. 3 trades, 18.75%, were sells and accounted for 10,000 shares, 14.05% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0882.

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary time-frames. Note the period ending 13:09 contains the day's largest trade, a sell of 81K $0.0890. The period ending 15:07 has the second largest trade, a sell of 52K for $0.0865.
    09:30-09:58: 046500 shrs, 13.59% of vol, VWAP $0.0875, 021.5% buys
    10:54-11:33: 017193 shrs, 05.03% of vol, VWAP $0.0889, 053.5% buys
    12:02-13:09: 141376 shrs, 41.33% of vol, VWAP $0.0886, 021.5% buys
    13:12-15:07: 102000 shrs, 29.82% of vol, VWAP $0.0864, 000.0% buys
    15:35-15:35: 010000 shrs, 02.92% of vol, VWAP $0.0894, 100.0% buys
    15:54-15:59: 025000 shrs, 07.31% of vol, VWAP $0.0866, 020.0% buys

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the first range contains the 52K sell for $0.0855 and the last range has the 81K sell for $0.0890.
    $0.0860-$0.0866: 176500 shrs, 51.60% of vol, VWAP $0.0864, 000.0% buys
    $0.0870-$0.0870: 010000 shrs, 02.92% of vol, VWAP $0.0870, 000.0% buys
    $0.0882-$0.0888: 015000 shrs, 04.39% of vol, VWAP $0.0884, 033.3% buys
    $0.0890-$0.0899: 140569 shrs, 41.09% of vol, VWAP $0.0893, 042.4% buys

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
    08/11 $0.1010 +05.52% 23.0%
    08/12 $0.0998 -01.21% 31.5%
    08/13 $0.1005 +00.74% 18.9%
    08/14 $0.0969 -03.56% 09.4%
    08/15 $0.0953 -01.62% 15.5%
    08/18 $0.0904 -05.18% 43.8%
    08/19 $0.0901 -00.31% 37.1%
    08/20 $0.0885 -01.75% 51.3%
    08/21 $0.0880 -00.65% 31.7%
    08/22 $0.0875 -00.53% 39.3%
    08/25 $0.0874 -00.11% 21.7%
    08/26 $0.0877 +00.34% 18.9%

    Here's my newer inflection point calculations. The two shorter periods continue showing the early stages of what I expect will be some marginal weakening. The 25-day period is preparing to join the trend, going from marginal improvement to flat today.
    _5-day_ 10-day_ _25-day_ _50-day_ _100-day_ _200-day_
    -048.11 -0159.69 -0343.40 -0592.95 -01467.36 -04294.03
    -090.71 -0175.62 -0379.23 -0653.06 -01563.56 -04442.46
    -127.20 -0219.59 -0478.65 -0796.09 -02014.51 -05687.78
    -213.56 -0346.24 -0590.92 -0929.86 -02269.98 -06180.82
    -228.96 -0302.19 -0717.36 -1085.17 -02658.70 -07442.64
    -218.93 -0282.36 -0691.61 -1072.74 -02349.09 -06946.85
    -175.00 -0284.99 -0657.58 -1053.02 -02330.95 -06797.51
    -155.54 -0288.76 -0636.48 -1006.68 -02154.14 -06267.86
    -065.98 -0278.96 -0639.05 -0982.02 -02075.97 -05875.84
    -079.89 -0279.15 -0624.84 -0978.52 -01917.93 -05424.44
    -089.12 -0281.96 -0624.81 -0957.18 -01872.24 -05205.92

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.

    08/25/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 53, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 120000, Vol: 765535, AvTrSz: 14444
    Min. Pr: 0.0861, Max Pr: 0.0910, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0874
    # Buys, Shares: 20 166135, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0887
    # Sells, Shares: 32 598400, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0871
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 1000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0888
    Buy:Sell 1:3.60 (21.70% "buys"), DlyShts 137750 (17.99%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 23.02%

    The uncertainty for me continues another change is added to what was concerning me yesterday. The directional correlation between buy percentage and daily short percentage may be broken ... or not. The presence of the three very large trades today may have had an effect, as may have the out-of-hours seen the prior days. I still don't know if these are symptoms of short-term or longer-term changes in underlying behavior.

    I still wonder if there's some warrant conversions at the new 1.7 ratio going on here. If that's the case, I guess these odd effects will continue for quite some time as the selling restrictions are much tighter than in the past.

    The $0.085/6 support is holding so far. If the trend of flat or slightly improved prices in the last and first week of each month is still active the $0.085/6 should hold through this and next week. It's still a wait and see time for now.

    The 600K $0.085 bid from NITE is now 590K. It remains the best hope that we won't go below that. But we haven't seen bids stacking up at or above that price. We have seen "ad hoc" bids coming in intra-day above it which will disappear easily if much weakness appears. So we can't count on them being around.

    We have had early signs additional support may be lining up at that level with BNCH showing a 20K bid, and holding there, and ETRF a 50K bid which was quickly moved up. But we've seen no additional build of quantity for quite a few days now.

    We had a small second bump up in volume today, but ~570K, 74.45%, is from larger trades, of which 55.45% of those were from three trades of 96K, 100K and 120K. The smaller trades accounted for only 195.6K. Regardless, my thought that lower volume was needed to slow our price descent seems to be in play still. Here's VWAP percentage changes 8/13 through today, 8/22: 0.74%, -3.56%, -1.62%, -5.18%, -0.31%, -1.75%, -00.65%, -00.53% and -00.11%.

    The directional correlation of buy percentage and daily short percentage seems broken for the moment. Buy percentage dropped and daily short percentage rose today. This suggests that some underlying condition has changed or is changing. It will bear watching. I'll also want to see if price stabilizes as daily short percentage moves into normal ranges, if it does.

    There were no out-of-hours trades today, so we can at least know the numbers are correct.

    There were really no outliers today. The two sells for $0.091 totaling 10.5K set the days high, but the next lower price of $0.09 had multiple trades and decent volume and included only two of the larger trades, 40K and 15K. So $0.0910 doesn't seem too abnormal.

    On the traditional TA front, the hammer has thus far played out as Bulkowski suggested - sort of random in reliability and a weak improvement. Today we gave up the higher high of yesterday, had a slightly lower VWAP and essentially flat volume with a narrowed spread. Move along, move along - nothing to see here.

    The oscillators I watch were a mixed bag today, with ADX related marginally improved, full stochastic curling up and MFI continuing to improve. RSI, momentum and Williams %R weakened a wee bit. Accumulation/distribution is in a very slow marginal up trend. All in all, more or less normal.

    The Bollinger band upper limit had started to decrease its rate of descent and is reading $0.1071 today. The lower limit is starting to flatten, moving from $0.0854 to $0.0848 today. Mid-point would be ~$0.0912, just above the top of our trading today.

    The descending channel resistance is ~$0.097 today and the support is ~$0.074. So our current trading range is now slightly above the mid-range.

    Yesterday I noted my non-traditional stuff's move towards less negativity broke a little bit in the original version, which went to three improved and three weaker from the prior day's five periods marginally improved and one minimally weaker. The good news was that the 5-day period had a large positive move while the weaker periods had very small moves. Well, so much for that! Today the five-day went more negative by a noticeable amount and four of the other five periods weakened with only the 200-day showing a small improvement.

    The newer calculations had five improved periods and only one weaker and had been, in aggregate, improving for four days. Today it signaled a coming change as it went mixed with the two shortest periods weakening while the longer periods continued improving, marginally.

    ARCA was absent today.

    Buy percentage dropped today. A lot of this was due to the three large blocks mentioned. Regardless, our slow decline in selling at least took a pause today. From 8/7 onward the selling was 58.75%, 75.21%, 76.95%, 68.46%, 81.10%, 90.57%, 84.14%, 55.44%, 47.7%, 68.3%, 60.73% and 78.2% today.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 1.29%, -1.09%, -00.11%, 1.49% and 182.85% respectively. Price spread today was 5.69% vs. 8.24%, 5.88%, 13.25%, 7.05%, 11.74%, 19.89%, 9.38%, 8.85% and 21.89% on prior days.

    Note the several larger trades, mentioned above in the volume discussion, had a big effect on the following.

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 11 of the 53 trades, 20.75%. These 569,917 shares were 74.45% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0871. 3 of the larger trades, 27.27%, were buys of 67,000 shares, 11.76% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0887. 8 of the larger trades, 72.73%, were sells of 502,917 shares, 88.24% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0869.

    The other 42 trades, 79.25% of the day's trades, traded 195618 shares, 25.55% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0882. 17 trades, 40.48%, were buys and accounted for 99135 shares, 50.68% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0886. 24 trades, 57.14%, were sells and accounted for 95483 shares, 48.81% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0878. 1 trade, 2.38%, was a sell and accounted for 1000 shares, 0.51% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0888.

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary time-frames. Note the several larger trades, mentioned above in the volume discussion, had a big effect on the following.
    09:30-10:01: 074000 shrs, 09.67% of vol, VWAP $0.0901, 030.4% buys
    10:36-11:25: 035500 shrs, 04.64% of vol, VWAP $0.0899, 097.2% buys
    11:40-12:36: 166400 shrs, 21.74% of vol, VWAP $0.0876, 043.3% buys
    12:58-13:56: 023500 shrs, 03.07% of vol, VWAP $0.0867, 000.0% buys
    14:11-14:50: 116320 shrs, 15.19% of vol, VWAP $0.0876, 008.9% buys
    15:00-15:50: 028815 shrs, 03.76% of vol, VWAP $0.0871, 089.6% buys
    15:56-15:56: 320000 shrs, 41.80% of vol, VWAP $0.0864, 000.0% buys
    15:59-15:59: 001000 shrs, 00.13% of vol, VWAP $0.0890, 100.0% buys

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the several larger trades, mentioned above in the volume discussion, had a big effect on the following.
    $0.0861-$0.0867: 225500 shrs, 29.46% of vol, VWAP $0.0862, 000.0% buys
    $0.0870-$0.0877: 380150 shrs, 49.66% of vol, VWAP $0.0872, 016.1% buys
    $0.0880-$0.0899: 061385 shrs, 08.02% of vol, VWAP $0.0892, 094.3% buys
    $0.0900-$0.0900: 088000 shrs, 11.50% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 053.4% buys
    $0.0910-$0.0910: 010500 shrs, 01.37% of vol, VWAP $0.0910, 000.0% buys

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
    08/08 $0.0957 -01.48% 24.8%
    08/11 $0.1010 +05.52% 23.0%
    08/12 $0.0998 -01.21% 31.5%
    08/13 $0.1005 +00.74% 18.9%
    08/14 $0.0969 -03.56% 09.4%
    08/15 $0.0953 -01.62% 15.5%
    08/18 $0.0904 -05.18% 43.8%
    08/19 $0.0901 -00.31% 37.1%
    08/20 $0.0885 -01.75% 51.3%
    08/21 $0.0880 -00.65% 31.7%
    08/22 $0.0875 -00.53% 39.3%
    08/25 $0.0874 -00.11% 21.7%

    Here's my newer inflection point calculations. As mentioned above, we broke our "trend to slower weakening", with the two shorter periods showing the early stages of what I expect will be some marginal weakening.
    _5-day_ 10-day_ _25-day_ _50-day_ _100-day_ _200-day_
    -043.90 -0135.30 -0287.64 -0508.36 -01119.94 -03518.08
    -048.11 -0159.69 -0343.40 -0592.95 -01467.36 -04294.03
    -090.71 -0175.62 -0379.23 -0653.06 -01563.56 -04442.46
    -127.20 -0219.59 -0478.65 -0796.09 -02014.51 -05687.78
    -213.56 -0346.24 -0590.92 -0929.86 -02269.98 -06180.82
    -228.96 -0302.19 -0717.36 -1085.17 -02658.70 -07442.64
    -218.93 -0282.36 -0691.61 -1072.74 -02349.09 -06946.85
    -175.00 -0284.99 -0657.58 -1053.02 -02330.95 -06797.51
    -155.54 -0288.76 -0636.48 -1006.68 -02154.14 -06267.86
    -065.98 -0278.96 -0639.05 -0982.02 -02075.97 -05875.84
    -079.89 -0279.15 -0624.84 -0978.52 -01917.93 -05424.44

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.

    08/22/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 60, MinTrSz: 217, MaxTrSz: 110000, Vol: 754308, AvTrSz: 12572
    Min. Pr: 0.0850, Max Pr: 0.0920, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0875
    # Buys, Shares: 28 296202, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0891
    # Sells, Shares: 32 458106, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0865
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.55 (39.27% "buys"), DlyShts 48701 (06.46%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 10.63%

    This is a time of extreme uncertainty for me as there's some things that may be going on that are invisible. Some of the behaviors I rely on have shown some breaking of trends. I don't know if these are symptoms of short-term or longer-term changes in underlying behavior.

    We've had two consecutive closes below $0.09 now so that support is finally officially broken in traditional TA terms. We are now reliant on the $0.085/6 support, which was already penetrated with an intra-day low of $0.083 on 8/20. Fortunately, at least I hope, is that the trend of flat or slightly improved prices in the last and first week of each month is still active. Since we did have a trend lower in the middle weeks of this month, began in earnest on 8/15, that's some indication that the trend is still active. It's a wait and see time for now. I'm concerned, as noted next, that some of those warrant conversions at the new 1.7 ratio may affect this trend.

    Two consecutive days of out-of-hours trades and another AH trade on 8/13 makes me wonder if these are the PIPErs converting warrants at the new 1.7/warrant rate and making their new lower daily limit by completing their trades out of hours. We used to see this with Quercus who seemed to be honoring an apparent self-imposed 10% of daily volume limit. I'll never know if the PIPErs are doing this but it seemed worth a mention. If this is the case, we might see our last and first week behavior altered.

    Regardless, I continue to think there's a decent chance that for the moment the $0.085/6 potential support will hold up, due to negative signs weakening and next week we go into the period of the month when we've traditionally seen prices stabilize and even improve slightly sometimes.

    The best hope that it may hold strongly remains with the 600K $0.085 bid from NITE. That wasn't seen today but that's likely because NITE had a better bid in all day, except possibly during the single $0.0850 sell at 9:31:50 of 10K, where I could have missed the "flash" of the 600K if it occurred.

    We have early signs additional support may be lining up at that level with BNCH showing a 20K bid and ETRF a 50K bid. Only BNCH held steady as ETRF moved their 50K to $0.086 at 09:52, a good thing. We have seen stronger potential support building at $0.085 before with more quantity from more MMs on one prior day but most of them haven't since been seen, possibly because they are constantly masked by better bids since that time or the bids have been improved, both good things.

    We had a bump in volume today, but it's still in the more typical range, well below the 1.5MM range seen Friday 8/15 and Monday 8/18. I said I thought lower volume would be needed to slow our descent. It seems to be taking effect. Here's VWAP percentage changes 8/13 through today, 8/22: 0.74%, -3.56%, -1.62%, -5.18%, -0.31%, -1.75%, -00.65% and -00.53%.

    A couple days back I said I expect a sizable jump up in the daily short percentage either today or tomorrow if volume remains low and/or spread stays relatively "tight". Well, volume has been moving up while spread has been tightening. I'm not sure what to expect under these conditions. Add in the trades AH yesterday and pre-market today, which may both have some (large?) short volume, and I can't even have a good take on what the short percentage is really doing.

    That's why yesterday's and today's percentage may be inaccurate. Today, 8/22, there was one pre-market trade for 24.5K shares that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 729,808 to 754,308 and would lower the short percentage from 06.67% to 06.46%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 48,701 to 73,201 and the short percentage would be 09.70%. We'll never know if any of those were short sales.

    If my directional correlation with buy percentage is still applicable, the short percentage should have seen a small tick up as the buy percentage moved from 31.71% to 39.27%. Instead we got a move from 9.54% yesterday to 6.46% today. This breaking of the typical correlation with buy percentage makes me suspect there were some large number of shorts in that 24.5K.

    There were really no outliers today. There's some on the high end I could suspect because they were only one buy each: $0.0900 for 20K, $0.0917 for 10K and $0.0920 for 4K. Below those most prices had multiple trades, starting at $0.0899, $0.0898, $0.0896 and $0.0890. With the three highest trades being close to those lower prices I can't comfortably call them outliers based on price.

    However, VWAP of the other buys around them, 9:32 - 10:48, was $0.0889, making these trades "out of character" for the period at +1.22%, +3.13% and +3.47% above VWAP for the other buys. But with the odd trading today, 50.25% of day's volume from 9:30 to 10:00 and a 24.5K pre-market sell, I don't think expecting normal behavior regarding these three high prices is reasonable.

    On the traditional TA front, yesterday I noted "we had a very narrow spread that resulted in a hammer, indicating a bullish reversal 60% of the time, only a bit better than random ..." and mentioned some other facts from Bulkowski. Using the high and the volume increase, we could say we had a reversal since the high was +2.22% and the close was 0.11%. I think that would be stretching it though. I'm leery also because the VWAP was -00.53%. All this would be more in line with Bulkowski's admonition that the appreciation was generally not all that robust. Of course, we have to give it at least a few days to play out before judging this.

    We broke the string of four consecutive days of lower highs with two of those days with lower lows. Our low was flat and our high was +2.22%. Today was the third consecutive day of rising volume. But we have seven consecutive days of lower VWAP. The thought that lower volume would help slow the descent seems to be accurate thus far though. See the "Some day-to-day VWAP changes" paragraph below and note the recent VWAP percentage changes.

    The Bollinger band lower extreme, $0.0846 yesterday, had contacted our low. Today it exceeded the $0.085 low with a reading of $0.0854. The upper limit, still falling rapidly, reads $0.108 today.

    This condition offers two possibilities. A tendency to revert to the mid-point, today $0.0967, may show up and is the desired outcome. The less desirable outcome is that our price range remains low and the Bollinger lower limit makes a small downward adjustment, leading to a more quickly falling mid-point.

    The descending channel resistance is ~$0.10 today and the support is ~$0.0745. So our current trading range remains roughly in the middle right now. The potential support from the recent intra-day lows of $0.0850/1 and $0.086 still seems to be having effect now.

    Most of the oscillators I watch were slightly weaker today, the exception being MFI which exited being essentially flat in oversold and got out of oversold with a 21.79 reading, just a bit over a point out of oversold. RSI cracked and showed enough movement lower today that I can't consider it "flattish" anymore. But the weakening so far is very, very slow and just above oversold at 31.01.

    My non-traditional stuff's move towards less negativity broke a little bit today in the original version, which went to three improved and three weaker from yesterday's five periods marginally improved and one minimally weaker. The good news is that the 5-day period had a large positive move while the weaker periods had very small moves. The newer calculations have five improved periods and only one weaker and has been, in aggregate, improving for four days now.

    ARCA was absent today.

    Buy percentage improved marginally as VWAP dropped. This is the fourth consecutive day of "flip-flop" in the buy percentage behavior while VWAP drops. All I can guess is that the sellers, and very likely, short-term long MMs being most of those, are still predominant. Today it occurred to me that warrant conversions might be involved too. I've been thinking the sellers might be backing off, at last, and then thinking maybe not, and then ... Now it looks like "not so much". From 8/7 onward the selling was 58.75%, 75.21%, 76.95%, 68.46%, 81.10%, 90.57%, 84.14%, 55.44%, 47.7%, 68.3% and 60.73% today.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, 2.22%, -00.53%, 26.25% and -14.56% respectively. Price spread today was 8.24% vs. 5.88%, 13.25%, 7.05%, 11.74%, 19.89%, 9.38%, 8.85%, 21.89% and 11.94% on prior days.

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 11 of the 60 trades, 18.33%. These 478,100 shares were 63.38% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0873. 2 of the larger trades, 18.18%, were buys of 130,000 shares, 27.19% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0897. 9 of the larger trades, 81.82%, were sells of 348,100 shares, 72.81% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0864.

    The other 49 trades, 81.67% of the day's trades, traded 276,208 shares, 36.62% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0879. 26 trades, 53.06%, were buys and accounted for 166,202 shares, 60.17% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0887. 23 trades, 46.94%, were sells and accounted for 110,006 shares, 39.83% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0867.

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary time-frames.
    08:38-08:38: 024500 shrs, 03.25% of vol, VWAP $0.0853, 000.0% buys
    09:30-09:31: 225000 shrs, 29.83% of vol, VWAP $0.0859, 000.0% buys
    09:32-10:00: 154001 shrs, 20.42% of vol, VWAP $0.0895, 100.0% buys
    10:02-10:48: 061801 shrs, 08.19% of vol, VWAP $0.0884, 066.0% buys
    10:52-11:26: 045500 shrs, 06.03% of vol, VWAP $0.0887, 060.9% buys
    11:26-12:55: 097517 shrs, 12.93% of vol, VWAP $0.0867, 017.4% buys
    13:10-14:25: 070289 shrs, 09.32% of vol, VWAP $0.0876, 058.3% buys
    14:29-14:59: 042500 shrs, 05.63% of vol, VWAP $0.0890, 050.6% buys
    15:22-15:48: 039000 shrs, 05.17% of vol, VWAP $0.0879, 000.0% buys
    15:59-15:59: 001200 shrs, 00.16% of vol, VWAP $0.0898, 100.0% buys

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
    $0.0850-$0.0853: 054500 shrs, 07.23% of vol, VWAP $0.0852, 000.0% buys
    $0.0860-$0.0861: 277217 shrs, 36.75% of vol, VWAP $0.0860, 000.0% buys
    $0.0870-$0.0876: 099300 shrs, 13.16% of vol, VWAP $0.0875, 045.3% buys
    $0.0880-$0.0889: 114789 shrs, 15.22% of vol, VWAP $0.0882, 052.7% buys
    $0.0890-$0.0899: 174501 shrs, 23.13% of vol, VWAP $0.0895, 089.8% buys
    $0.0900-$0.0900: 020000 shrs, 02.65% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 100.0% buys
    $0.0917-$0.0917: 010000 shrs, 01.33% of vol, VWAP $0.0917, 100.0% buys
    $0.0920-$0.0920: 004001 shrs, 00.53% of vol, VWAP $0.0920, 100.0% buys

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
    08/07 $0.0971 +04.41% 37.4%
    08/08 $0.0957 -01.48% 24.8%
    08/11 $0.1010 +05.52% 23.0%
    08/12 $0.0998 -01.21% 31.5%
    08/13 $0.1005 +00.74% 18.9%
    08/14 $0.0969 -03.56% 09.4%
    08/15 $0.0953 -01.62% 15.5%
    08/18 $0.0904 -05.18% 43.8%
    08/19 $0.0901 -00.31% 37.1%
    08/20 $0.0885 -01.75% 51.3%
    08/21 $0.0880 -00.65% 31.7%
    08/22 $0.0875 -00.53% 39.3%

    Here's my newer inflection point calculations. We went from all periods showing less weakening to five doing so and that continues. Volume again improved a bit, so even though they were marginal moves I think we can see this as continued improvement, i.e. "a trend to slower weakening", but not strengthening yet.
    _5-day_ 10-day_ _25-day_ _50-day_ _100-day_ _200-day_
    -117.43 -0237.84 -0378.85 -0755.29 -01625.42 -05065.95
    -043.90 -0135.30 -0287.64 -0508.36 -01119.94 -03518.08
    -048.11 -0159.69 -0343.40 -0592.95 -01467.36 -04294.03
    -090.71 -0175.62 -0379.23 -0653.06 -01563.56 -04442.46
    -127.20 -0219.59 -0478.65 -0796.09 -02014.51 -05687.78
    -213.56 -0346.24 -0590.92 -0929.86 -02269.98 -06180.82
    -228.96 -0302.19 -0717.36 -1085.17 -02658.70 -07442.64
    -218.93 -0282.36 -0691.61 -1072.74 -02349.09 -06946.85
    -175.00 -0284.99 -0657.58 -1053.02 -02330.95 -06797.51
    -155.54 -0288.76 -0636.48 -1006.68 -02154.14 -06267.86
    -065.98 -0278.96 -0639.05 -0982.02 -02075.97 -05875.84

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.

    08/21/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 44, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 90000, Vol: 597450, AvTrSz: 13578
    Min. Pr: 0.0850, Max Pr: 0.0900, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0880
    # Buys, Shares: 22 189450, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0891
    # Sells, Shares: 22 408000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0874
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.15 (31.71% "buys"), DlyShts 57000 (09.54%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 13.97%

    We need to hire a new painter - the close was right in line with trading of the last half hour, which ranged from $0.0875 to $0.0896. Yes, there was a buy at 15:59:23 of 1,800 shares for $0.0896 but the four trades before it, latest to oldest, were $0-.0875 (15K), $0.0876 (10K),$0.0895 (10K) and $0.0895 (1k). These all happened from 15:56 to 15:59. The trade before that sequence was a sell at 15:28 of 25K for $0.0875.

    I continue to think there's a decent chance that for the moment the $0.085/6 potential support will hold up, due to negative signs weakening and next week we go into the period of the month when we've traditionally seen prices stabilize and even improve slightly sometimes.

    At last it looks like the low-volume days I thought would be needed to slow the descent are taking effect. Here's VWAP percentage changes 8/13 through today, 8/20: 0.74%, -3.56%, -1.62%, -5.18%, -0.31%, -1.75% and -00.65%. The effects of the last high-volume day on 8/18 should be almost totally gone now. As suggested yesterday "that effect should begin to dissipate tomorrow as daily short sales percentage starts an up leg again". Daily short percentage now has two consecutive increases, but is still at very low levels. That should change today or tomorrow. If it does, our chance of staying above $0.085x-$0.086 and, more importantly, $0.08 continues to improve.

    There were really no outliers today. The high and low trades both had some volume and were within range of other trades with similar prices and volume.

    On the traditional TA front, we had a very narrow spread that resulted in a hammer, indicating a bullish reversal 60% of the time, only a bit better than random, according to Bulkowski. Unfortunately he also notes that when reversal does occur the rise is not very strong, "... ranking 65 out of 103 candles where 1 is best". We also have four consecutive days of lower highs and two of those days with lower lows. Today had rising volume on a lower trading range and now six consecutive days of lower VWAP. I think this supports the weak appreciation if we do get a reversal.

    However, the Bollinger band lower extreme, $0.0846, has contacted our low now. This offers the possibility that a tendency to revert to the mid-point may show up. With the upper extreme at $0.1114 the mid-point would be ~$0.093. The limits are still widely spread and converging (upper dropping significantly faster), so the mid-point will change.

    The adjusted trend lines' resistance today is ~$0.102 and the support is ~$0.076. So our current trading range is almost smack-dab in the middle right now. So this doesn't add any directionality suggestion right now. The potential support from the recent intra-day lows of $0.0851 and $0.086 seems to be operational right now. But we know from past experience that can be fleeting. The best hope that it may hold strongly lies with ...

    The 600K $0.085 bid from NITE appeared today at 12:28. Again, it was probably there all day but was masked by better bids from NITE until then. By 12:44 it was masked by better bids again.

    Most of the oscillators I watch were slightly weaker today with the exceptions being RSI and MFI, which remained essentially flat.

    My non-traditional stuff remains negative but the move towards less negativity continues. My original calculations have five periods marginally improved and one minimally weaker. The newer calculations have the same profile today and having been improving for three days now.

    There were two AH trades for 10K shares that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 587,450 to 597,450 and would lower the short percentage from 09.70% to 09.54%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 57,000 to 67,000 and the short percentage would be 11.21%.

    Daily short percentage had its second day of (very small) increase now. I think this indicates the effects of the high-volume wide-spread days are now fading. I expect a sizable jump up in the percentage either today or tomorrow if volume remains low and/or spread stays relatively "tight". Consider that "real" short could be slightly higher as noted in the prior paragraph.

    ARCA was absent today.

    Buy percentage deteriorated as VWAPs dropped. This is the third day of "flip-flop" in the buy percentage behavior. All I can guess is that the sellers, and very likely, short-term long MMs being most of those, are still predominant. Yesterday I thought the sellers might be backing off, at last. Today puts that assessment in question. From 8/7 onward the selling was 58.75%, 75.21%, 76.95%, 68.46%, 81.10%, 90.57%, 84.14%, 55.44%, 47.7% and 68.3% today.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.41%, -4.26%, -00.65%, 18.55% and 30.49% respectively. Price spread today was 5.88% vs. 13.25%, 7.05%, 11.74%, 19.89%, 9.38%, 8.85%, 21.89%, 11.94% and 10.28% on prior days.

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 13 of the 44 trades, 29.55%. These 396,323 shares were 66.34% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0879. 4 of the larger trades, 30.77%, were buys of 101,323 shares, 25.57% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0889. 9 of the larger trades, 69.23%, were sells of 295,000 shares, 74.43% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0876.

    The other 31 trades, 70.45% of the day's trades, traded 201,127 shares, 33.66% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0880. 18 trades, 58.06%, were buys and accounted for 88,127 shares, 43.82% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0894. 13 trades, 41.94%, were sells and accounted for 113,000 shares, 56.18% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0870.

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary time-frames.
    09:58-10:05: 095150 shrs, 15.93% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 000.2% buys
    10:31-12:01: 081000 shrs, 13.56% of vol, VWAP $0.0880, 006.2% buys
    12:09-12:53: 219000 shrs, 36.66% of vol, VWAP $0.0883, 057.5% buys
    12:55-13:44: 069500 shrs, 11.63% of vol, VWAP $0.0856, 015.1% buys
    14:12-15:28: 085000 shrs, 14.23% of vol, VWAP $0.0865, 029.4% buys
    15:56-15:59: 037800 shrs, 06.33% of vol, VWAP $0.0882, 033.9% buys
    16:05-16:05: 010000 shrs, 01.67% of vol, VWAP $0.0897, 100.0% buys

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
    $0.0850-$0.0854: 083000 shrs, 13.89% of vol, VWAP $0.0853, 000.0% buys
    $0.0860-$0.0861: 108500 shrs, 18.16% of vol, VWAP $0.0860, 031.8% buys
    $0.0875-$0.0876: 095000 shrs, 15.90% of vol, VWAP $0.0875, 000.0% buys
    $0.0880-$0.0880: 061000 shrs, 10.21% of vol, VWAP $0.0880, 000.0% buys
    $0.0894-$0.0899: 121800 shrs, 20.39% of vol, VWAP $0.0897, 100.0% buys
    $0.0900-$0.0900: 128150 shrs, 21.45% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 025.9% buys

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
    08/06 $0.0930 +00.27% 65.4%
    08/07 $0.0971 +04.41% 37.4%
    08/08 $0.0957 -01.48% 24.8%
    08/11 $0.1010 +05.52% 23.0%
    08/12 $0.0998 -01.21% 31.5%
    08/13 $0.1005 +00.74% 18.9%
    08/14 $0.0969 -03.56% 09.4%
    08/15 $0.0953 -01.62% 15.5%
    08/18 $0.0904 -05.18% 43.8%
    08/19 $0.0901 -00.31% 37.1%
    08/20 $0.0885 -01.75% 51.3%
    08/21 $0.0880 -00.65% 31.7%

    Here's my newer inflection point calculations. We went from all periods showing less weakening to five doing so and that continues. Volume again improved a bit, so even though they were marginal moves I think we can see this as continued improvement, i.e. "a trend to slower weakening", but not strengthening yet.
    _5-day_ 10-day_ _25-day_ _50-day_ _100-day_ _200-day_
    -079.77 -0273.98 -0369.85 -0740.27 -01593.87 -05112.74
    -117.43 -0237.84 -0378.85 -0755.29 -01625.42 -05065.95
    -043.90 -0135.30 -0287.64 -0508.36 -01119.94 -03518.08
    -048.11 -0159.69 -0343.40 -0592.95 -01467.36 -04294.03
    -090.71 -0175.62 -0379.23 -0653.06 -01563.56 -04442.46
    -127.20 -0219.59 -0478.65 -0796.09 -02014.51 -05687.78
    -213.56 -0346.24 -0590.92 -0929.86 -02269.98 -06180.82
    -228.96 -0302.19 -0717.36 -1085.17 -02658.70 -07442.64
    -218.93 -0282.36 -0691.61 -1072.74 -02349.09 -06946.85
    -175.00 -0284.99 -0657.58 -1053.02 -02330.95 -06797.51
    -155.54 -0288.76 -0636.48 -1006.68 -02154.14 -06267.86

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.

    08/20/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 56, MinTrSz: 180, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 503951, AvTrSz: 8999
    Min. Pr: 0.0830, Max Pr: 0.0940, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0885
    # Buys, Shares: 25 258694, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0892
    # Sells, Shares: 30 240257, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0877
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0940
    Buy:Sell 1.08:1 (51.33% "buys"), DlyShts 43680 (08.67%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 18.18%

    Our painter was on the job today with two buys for $0.0909 (the best they could do today I guess) totaling 7K shares at 15:57. If those two trades, which BTW occurred sequentially as the last trades of the day, hadn't occurred our close would have been $0.0861. There were two more buys at that price totaling 7K at 15:41 and 15:47. They were wrapped in surrounding sells of $0.0861.

    I've noted sub-$0.09 VWAP seemed near. The last two days were close with VWAPs of $0.0904 and then $0.0901. Today it was $0.0885.

    On 8/15 I also said "... we have entered short-term consolidation. Short-term is the operative word here. I don't believe we'll make medium-term. I'm not saying a close below $0.09 right away, but it sure looks like that's coming soon". There but for the grace of "paint" went us ... today.

    Regardless of all that, I think there's a decent chance that for the moment the $0.085/6 potential support will hold up. It's not due to a lot of positive signs, but rather due to negative signs weakening and next week we go into the period of the month when we've traditionally seen prices stabilize and even improve slightly sometimes.

    On Monday, 8/18 I said it's going to take some low-volume days to stop this trend as high-volume days bring weakness but low volume likely wouldn't stop it immediately, but only slow the descent initially. Here we are two days later and we had two low-volume days, ~262K and ~504K, and it's hard to say if that's the case ATM. Here's VWAP percentage changes 8/13 through today, 8/20: 0.74%, -3.56%, -1.62%, -5.18%, -0.31% and -1.75%. Some of this could be hangover from the last high-volume day on 8/18. If so, that effect should begin to dissipate tomorrow as daily short sales percentage starts an up leg again. If it does, our chance of staying above $0.085x-$0.086 and, more importantly, $0.08 improves.

    Part of this improvement in chance of holding above those levels could be because we'll shortly be entering the last week of the month when some price stability, and sometimes even small improvement, is seen.

    The day's low was one of the outliers today, a sell of 4,257 shares for $0.0830 at 12:19. The next higher price was $0.0850, which was 1 sell for 10K. It was near to the next higher trades range of $0.086 which had several trades and ~37K shares traded. On the top end the day's high of $0.0940 was set by two trades, a sell and unknown, totaling 13K shares. The next two prices down, both sells, were in the first 23 seconds at $0.0925 and the $0.0917. Each was a quantity of 2K. $0.0910 had a few trades with a little volume and was in range of some decent volume seen at $0.0909.

    If I were looking for a better representation of the day's behavior I think a low of $0.085 would be OK and a high of $0.0910 would serve.

    On the traditional TA front, we had a wider spread (barely) even with the outliers discounted. We also have three consecutive days of lower highs and two of those days with lower lows. This ignores outliers which we have almost every day. Fortunately it's on substantially lower volume, compared to last Friday and Monday. Unfortunately, the lower open, close, high and low today is with increasing volume. Add in a VWAP that's fallen for the fifth consecutive day and went below $0.09 today.

    None of that suggests anything positive yet.

    With the adjusted trend lines from yesterday, the resistance today is just below ~$0.10 (~$0.099?) and the support is ~$0.0775. There is potential support from the recent intra-day lows of $0.0851 and $0.086 and if we throw out the outlier low today it looks like it might hold. We had good volume at $0.086 and above and today we still have additional hope because ...

    The 600K $0.085 bid from NITE appeared today at 12:19. Again, it was probably there all day but was masked by better bids from NITE until then. By 12:23 it was masked by better bids again. We should remember that last time we had such a situation, with ~784K aggregate in bids at a low support level IIRC, we chewed through that support in just a few days.

    Most of the oscillators I watch were "flattish" today. ADX related and full stochastic weakened a bit and momentum had a small up tick.

    The Bollinger band extremes are still widely spread and converging with the upper limit descending very quickly. Today the upper and lower limits are $0.1188 and $0.0812.

    My non-traditional stuff remains negative but the move towards less negativity continues. As with yesterday, all improvements were relatively small and all readings are still strongly negative. But with improved volume we can add a little confidence to what they suggest. IMO, just a slowing of price descent and maybe even support at that $0.085/6 level. The original calculations are also showing improvement.

    Yesterday daily short percentage dropped to 8.52% directionally in line with the buy percentage's drop to 37.12% from 43.8%. Today buy percentage rose to 51.3% and daily short percentage rose to 8.67%. This is effectively zilch. I think this is still from the two consecutive "high-volume, wide spread" days on Friday and Monday. I think these effects will be gone tomorrow, 8/21, and we should see the daily short percentage start to behave normally (i.e. choppy leg up beginning) and that should help remove some of the downward pressure.

    This would be in line with my "If volume remains low the daily short percentage should begin to recover to normal levels in a day or two and price may begin to stabilize".

    ARCA was absent today.

    Buy percentage improved as VWAPs dropped, unlike yesterday. The sellers may be backing off, at last. From 8/7 onward the selling was 58.75%, 75.21%, 76.95%, 68.46%, 81.10%, 90.57%, 84.14%, 55.44% and 47.7% today.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -5.68%, -0.21%, -01.75%, 92.27% and 95.63% respectively. Price spread today was 13.25% vs. 7.05%, 11.74%, 19.89%, 9.38%, 8.85%, 21.89%, 11.94%, 10.28% and 3.96% on prior days.

    Using a low and high of $0.085 and $0.091 respectively, our ... low change would be -3.41% instead of -5.68%, the high change would be -3.40% instead of -0.21%, and the spread would be 7.06% instead of 13.25%.

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 7 of the 56 trades, 12.50%. These 274,491 shares were 54.47% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0879. 2 of the larger trades, 28.57%, were buys of 150,000 shares, 54.65% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0883. 5 of the larger trades, 71.43%, were sells of 124,491 shares, 45.35% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0874.

    The other 49 trades, 87.50% of the day's trades, traded 229,460 shares, 45.53% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0893. 23 trades, 46.94%, were buys and accounted for 108,694 shares, 47.37% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0903. 25 trades, 51.02%, were sells and accounted for 115,766 shares, 50.45% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0881. 1 trade, 2.04%, was unknown and accounted for 5,000 shares, 2.18% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0940.

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary time-frames.
    09:30-10:21: 029257 shrs, 05.81% of vol, VWAP $0.0889, 013.7% buys
    10:56-11:16: 050700 shrs, 10.06% of vol, VWAP $0.0915, 049.3% buys
    11:17-12:10: 052934 shrs, 10.50% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 048.4% buys
    12:18-12:33: 171000 shrs, 33.93% of vol, VWAP $0.0877, 064.6% buys
    12:56-12:57: 025560 shrs, 05.07% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 100.0% buys
    12:59-15:39: 159000 shrs, 31.55% of vol, VWAP $0.0875, 034.6% buys
    15:41-15:57: 015500 shrs, 03.08% of vol, VWAP $0.0901, 083.9% buys

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
    $0.0830-$0.0830: 004257 shrs, 00.84% of vol, VWAP $0.0830, 000.0% buys
    $0.0850-$0.0861: 054243 shrs, 10.76% of vol, VWAP $0.0858, 000.0% buys
    $0.0870-$0.0884: 239257 shrs, 47.48% of vol, VWAP $0.0878, 044.1% buys
    $0.0890-$0.0909: 174194 shrs, 34.57% of vol, VWAP $0.0899, 077.0% buys
    $0.0910-$0.0917: 017000 shrs, 03.37% of vol, VWAP $0.0911, 100.0% buys
    $0.0925-$0.0925: 002000 shrs, 00.40% of vol, VWAP $0.0925, 100.0% buys
    $0.0940-$0.0940: 013000 shrs, 02.58% of vol, VWAP $0.0940, 000.0% buys

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
    08/05 $0.0915 +01.27% 37.9%
    08/06 $0.0930 +00.27% 65.4%
    08/07 $0.0971 +04.41% 37.4%
    08/08 $0.0957 -01.48% 24.8%
    08/11 $0.1010 +05.52% 23.0%
    08/12 $0.0998 -01.21% 31.5%
    08/13 $0.1005 +00.74% 18.9%
    08/14 $0.0969 -03.56% 09.4%
    08/15 $0.0953 -01.62% 15.5%
    08/18 $0.0904 -05.18% 43.8%
    08/19 $0.0901 -00.31% 37.1%
    08/20 $0.0885 -01.75% 51.3%

    Here's my newer inflection point calculations. We went from all periods showing less weakening to five doing so. Volume was improved a bit, so even though they were marginal moves I think we can see this as continued improvement, i.e. "a trend to slower weakening", but not strengthening yet.
    _5-day_ 10-day_ _25-day_ _50-day_ _100-day_ _200-day_
    -119.68 -0334.46 -0456.94 -0871.46 -02126.06 -06889.45
    -079.77 -0273.98 -0369.85 -0740.27 -01593.87 -05112.74
    -117.43 -0237.84 -0378.85 -0755.29 -01625.42 -05065.95
    -043.90 -0135.30 -0287.64 -0508.36 -01119.94 -03518.08
    -048.11 -0159.69 -0343.40 -0592.95 -01467.36 -04294.03
    -090.71 -0175.62 -0379.23 -0653.06 -01563.56 -04442.46
    -127.20 -0219.59 -0478.65 -0796.09 -02014.51 -05687.78
    -213.56 -0346.24 -0590.92 -0929.86 -02269.98 -06180.82
    -228.96 -0302.19 -0717.36 -1085.17 -02658.70 -07442.64
    -218.93 -0282.36 -0691.61 -1072.74 -02349.09 -06946.85
    -175.00 -0284.99 -0657.58 -1053.02 -02330.95 -06797.51

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.

    08/19/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 47, MinTrSz: 357, MaxTrSz: 20000, Vol: 262106, AvTrSz: 5577
    Min. Pr: 0.0880, Max Pr: 0.0942, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0901
    # Buys, Shares: 18 97306, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0913
    # Sells, Shares: 28 164100, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0894
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 700, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0909
    Buy:Sell 1:1.69 (37.12% "buys"), DlyShts 22328 (08.52%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 13.61%

    I've noted sub-$0.09 VWAP seemed near. Yesterday was close with a VWAP of $0.0904. Today we inched nearer with a VWAP of $0.0901.

    I opined yesterday "I think it's going to take some low-volume days to stop this trend because recently all high-volume days bring weakness". Low volume likely will not stop it immediately, but only slow the descent initially.

    On the traditional TA front, a reduced spread with a lower high and higher low on reducing volume, ~402.9K, ~1.5MM, ~1.62MM and ~262K, finally suggests that the downside is nearing its limit. Not that we're there yet, but the big push is over and now we should see any creep lower as only low-volume and incremental. The recent lows of 8/4 and 8/5 of $0.0851 and $0.086 on 8/18 might offer some support but we need to be mindful that our history is to always make new all-time lows. If that holds we will go below the 1/16/14 $0.08 intra-day low and bounce back.

    Since we seem to be repeating the many-months pattern of weakness in the middle weeks of the month, holding at or above these recent lows seems problematic. The reducing volume offers some hope though.

    From a comment I made in the concentrator: "Out [sic] painter was aggressive today, taking out 16,571 share at $0.0915 and 6,500 at the resulting "uncovered" $0.0925. Still ended down 1/8% [sic] though. The rest of the trading took some of the shares that resulted in a VWAP of $0.0901 for the day - 2.59% lower than the close". Of course, "down 1.8%" was intended.

    Ignoring the paint, today would have closed at $0.0900, again, on a 20K sell at 15:54.

    That was fortunate too because a lot of trading in the last hour, including as late as 15:50, was in the low $0.088x area.

    Regarding the descending trading channel resistance, I've adjusted both the resistance and support to better fit the price activity. Both have more touch points as a result, offering a higher level of confidence that they are valid.

    With the adjusted lines, the resistance today is ~$0.10 and the support is ~$0.078. It's important to remember that support is significant only if we make a full traversal of the channel as we complete this down leg. Right now there is potential support from the recent intra-day lows of $0.0851 and $0.086. With three touches it could be strong enough to hold but history suggests otherwise. But there's additional hope because ...

    The 600K $0.085 bid from NITE appeared today at 14:32. It was probably there all day but was masked by better bids from NITE until then. By 14:42 it was masked again. We approached it with yesterday's low of $0.086. Normally a bid this size has a lot of slightly better bids piled up above it and it takes a while to work through them. With low volume, if it continues, we might stay above $0.085x long enough for some catalyst to push price up again.

    However, last time we had such a situation, with ~784K aggregate in bids at a low support level IIRC, once we got to them we chewed through them in just three days or so. Since I don't see that much has improved, other than the recent adjustments to the allowed selling rate from the new 1:1.7 warrants exercise, I can't put a lot of faith in this $0.085 level holding all that much longer.

    Most of the oscillators I watch weakened marginally again. The ones that didn't were again MFI and momentum, which still appear mostly flat.

    The Bollinger band extremes are still widely spread and converging with the upper limit descending very quickly. Today the upper and lower limits are $0.1251 and $0.0790.

    My non-traditional stuff remains negative but the move towards improvement continues, with the newer calculations going from yesterday's four periods improved and two weakened to all periods showing reductions in weakening. All improvements were relatively small and all readings are still strongly negative. All this was on low volume so we do have to be a bit skeptical that this is anything but noise yet.

    The original version has four improved periods and two weakened.

    Yesterday I noted "... buy percentage went from 15.5% to 43.8% and daily short sales went from 12.17% to 15.38%. With a second high-volume day, albeit with reduced spread, daily short sales percentage will continue to struggle to move up at least an additional day". Today daily short percentage dropped to 8.52% directionally in line with buy percentage's drop to 37.12% from 43.8%.

    As we know, when daily short sales are moving down or at a low percentage the share price tends to fall.

    Daily short percentage continues to be choppy: 40%, 1.92%, 46.6%, 1.13%, 15.24%, 0.78%, 51.05%, 12.17%, 15.38% and 8.52% today. If volume remains low the daily short percentage should begin to recover to normal levels in a day or two and price may begin to stabilize.

    ARCA was absent today, which may have helped keep the VWAP from tanking as it did yesterday, going from $0.0953 to $0.0904 Friday to Monday. Today we only went to $0.0901.

    The only real outlier today was the $0.0942 buy at the open, the first trade of the day which matched the "painted" closing price of the prior day. $0.0925 was the next lower price and would be a high more indicative of sentiment IMO.

    Buy percentage deteriorated as VWAPs dropped, unlike yesterday. The sellers were still in control - most likely the MMs with short-term long positions that would occur if they did a lot of covering buys on the high-volume days when we had wide spreads and lots of selling. From 8/7 onward the selling was 58.75%, 75.21%, 76.95%, 68.46%, 81.10%, 90.57%, 84.14% and 55.44%. Volume these last two days was 1458.55K and 1619.71K. The prior percentages might generate some long positions, but much smaller and with less dramatic downward pressure resulting .

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 2.33%, -1.98%, -00.31%, -83.82% and -91.04% respectively. Price spread today was 7.05% vs. 11.74%, 19.89%, 9.38%, 8.85%, 21.89%, 11.94%, 10.28%, 3.96% and 8.77% on prior days.

    There were only two larger trades, both sells: $0.0891 17K 14:32:52 and $0.0900 20K 15:54:56.

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary time-frames. The last period contains buys for $0.0915 and $0.0925 that were well above the $0.0884-$0.09 trades that preceded them in the prior period. They were obvious "painting the tape", as usual here.
    09:44-10:58: 111300 shrs, 06.87% of vol, VWAP $0.0913, 067.7% buys
    09:30-09:30: 004200 shrs, 01.60% of vol, VWAP $0.0942, 100.0% buys
    09:46-10:47: 022100 shrs, 08.43% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 000.0% buys
    10:55-11:44: 011957 shrs, 04.56% of vol, VWAP $0.0917, 090.0% buys
    12:03-13:20: 034000 shrs, 12.97% of vol, VWAP $0.0903, 000.0% buys
    13:21-14:26: 064299 shrs, 24.53% of vol, VWAP $0.0905, 064.2% buys
    14:32-15:31: 081000 shrs, 30.90% of vol, VWAP $0.0889, 021.6% buys
    15:36-15:54: 021479 shrs, 08.19% of vol, VWAP $0.0899, 002.2% buys
    15:59-15:59: 023071 shrs, 08.80% of vol, VWAP $0.0918, 100.0% buys

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. The $0.0925 range were buys that were obvious "painting the tape", as usual here.
    $0.0880-$0.0892: 075500 shrs, 28.81% of vol, VWAP $0.0886, 000.0% buys
    $0.0900-$0.0919: 175906 shrs, 67.11% of vol, VWAP $0.0906, 049.2% buys
    $0.0925-$0.0925: 006500 shrs, 02.48% of vol, VWAP $0.0925, 100.0% buys
    $0.0942-$0.0942: 004200 shrs, 01.60% of vol, VWAP $0.0942, 100.0% buys

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
    08/04 $0.0904 -09.03% 25.6%
    08/05 $0.0915 +01.27% 37.9%
    08/06 $0.0930 +00.27% 65.4%
    08/07 $0.0971 +04.41% 37.4%
    08/08 $0.0957 -01.48% 24.8%
    08/11 $0.1010 +05.52% 23.0%
    08/12 $0.0998 -01.21% 31.5%
    08/13 $0.1005 +00.74% 18.9%
    08/14 $0.0969 -03.56% 09.4%
    08/15 $0.0953 -01.62% 15.5%
    08/18 $0.0904 -05.18% 43.8%
    08/19 $0.0901 -00.31% 37.1%

    Here's my newer inflection point calculations. A low-volume day moved us from five periods weakening, after four consecutive days of all periods weakening, to all periods showing less weakening. They were marginal moves though and, as always, low volume may make this just noise.
    _5-day_ 10-day_ _25-day_ _50-day_ _100-day_ _200-day_
    -169.15 -0375.41 -0548.97 -0943.54 -02455.30 -07964.20
    -119.68 -0334.46 -0456.94 -0871.46 -02126.06 -06889.45
    -079.77 -0273.98 -0369.85 -0740.27 -01593.87 -05112.74
    -117.43 -0237.84 -0378.85 -0755.29 -01625.42 -05065.95
    -043.90 -0135.30 -0287.64 -0508.36 -01119.94 -03518.08
    -048.11 -0159.69 -0343.40 -0592.95 -01467.36 -04294.03
    -090.71 -0175.62 -0379.23 -0653.06 -01563.56 -04442.46
    -127.20 -0219.59 -0478.65 -0796.09 -02014.51 -05687.78
    -213.56 -0346.24 -0590.92 -0929.86 -02269.98 -06180.82
    -228.96 -0302.19 -0717.36 -1085.17 -02658.70 -07442.64
    -218.93 -0282.36 -0691.61 -1072.74 -02349.09 -06946.85

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.

    08/18/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 114, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol: 1619708, AvTrSz: 14208
    Min. Pr: 0.0860, Max Pr: 0.0961, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0904
    # Buys, Shares: 43 709195, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0911
    # Sells, Shares: 69 898013, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0899
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 12500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0904
    Buy:Sell 1:1.27 (43.79% "buys"), DlyShts 249145 (15.38%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 27.74%

    Yesterday, after touching on what traditional TA and my newer inflection point calculations suggested, it seemed sub-$0.09 VWAP was near. Today was close with a VWAP of $0.0904.

    Today's stuff has quite a few bearish indications going on and with volume rising for the second consecutive day on a falling low and VWAP. This a negative indication. The possible exception is the volume is high enough that it might suggest an end of the down trend. But it didn't spike higher so it's not as strong an indication of an end of trend. It "progressed", suggesting there's more downside left.

    My non-traditional stuff continues to show weakness, including average buy percentages trending lower, newer inflection point calculations still trending weaker for the fifth day, weak daily short percentages, and VWAPs trending lower for the third consecutive day.

    I think it's going to take some low-volume days to stop this trend because recently all high-volume days bring weakness.

    The 600K $0.085 bid from NITE appeared today at 12:20. We're approaching it with today's low of $0.086. 116K traded in the $0.0861 - $0.0860 range. Based on the past, when we had long-term apparent support built up to around 850K on the bids at a low price, the support this offers might hold no more than two or three days when it comes into play.

    On the traditional TA front, a lower high and low on rising volume, ~402.9K, ~1.5MM and ~1.62MM, is enough by itself to suggest nothing good this way comes.

    Someone was nice enough to paint the tape at the close with a buy of 1K shares for $0.0942 at 15:59:13. The trades just prior were in the $0.0900 - $0.0910 range after coming out of the high $0.08xx area. That closing trade prevented a close below my short-term rising support, but just barely since, AFAICT, it's ~$0.094.

    Ignoring the paint, today would have closed at $0.0900, fitting with yesterday's suggestion of a move lower when we had a penetration of the short-term rising support but closed above it at $0.0974.

    Unfortunately that close was also suspicious as a 1K buy for $0.0974 went off at 15:59:46. Trades just prior were several with good volume at $0.0903. Worse, the painter had to strike twice more to get the job done. In the midst of those low-$0.090xx trades were two more buys in the $0.097xx range: 15:58:20 5K buy for $0.0973 and 15:58:32 1.8K buy for $0.0974.

    So, I'm convinced that the real trading has had a close below the rising support on consecutive days now, confirming a break below. This suggests more downside is available. It means I'll need to adjust that support line as well to try and find a more likely stronger support. Could be tough to do.

    I mentioned the resistance of a descending trading channel was rapidly approaching our trading range, being ~$0.11 yesterday, matching a short-term top seen in the highs since 8/1 which had been challenged two times subsequent to its origin. The descending resistance, at $0.1067 AFAICT, is now below that horizontal price point of $0.11. This suggests a tough time getting any real lift-off if some upward impetus tries to develop.

    On the other end, the falling support is ~$0.0825. If we are in the midst of a down leg within that channel and it completed transversal of the channel today, that would be our target. Tomorrow would be ~$0.800.

    Most of the oscillators I watch weakened. The ones that didn't were MFI and momentum, which appear mostly flat.

    The Bollinger band extremes are still widely spread and converging with the upper limit descending very quickly. Today the upper and lower limits are $0.1298 and $0.0782.

    I had changed my "death cross" date "... to possibly Monday and certainly Tuesday". Got it today, Monday, with readings of $0.1298 and $0.1301 for the 50 and 200-day SMAs,respectively. If this has the traditional effect we should break out of consolidation very soon.

    I still don't believe we'll make the transition from short-term consolidation to medium-term. Yesterday I said "I'm not saying a close below $0.09 right away, but it sure looks like that's coming soon". That's still my best SWAG. Without the tape painting today (and yesterday) we would have closed most likely at $0.0903.

    My non-traditional stuff remains negative. My newer inflection point calculations had four consecutive days of weakening by all periods. Today five of the six went more negative, keeping the weakening tend in play. The pattern on the chart is moving strongly in the direction of forming the signal for a down move with only the 10-day period making a weak attempt to reverse. Even my original calculations' chart had all periods drooping yesterday. Today four periods improved and two weakened. Keep in mind it considers fewer factors than the newer calculations.

    Regarding daily short percentage, I noted it didn't get to stabilize before we got another high-volume wide spread day and typical behavior now is for it to again tank in a day or two and to see price weaken as it does so. But we got another high-volume day combined with an improved buy percentage. As noted in the past, the directional correlation, but not magnitude correlation, is pretty reliable between buy percentage and daily short sales percentage. Today buy percentage went from 15.5% to 43.8% and daily short sales went from 12.17% to 15.38%. with a second high-volume day, albeit with reduced spread, daily short sales percentage will continue to struggle to move up at least an additional day.

    As we know, when daily short sales are moving down or at a low percentage the share price tends to fall.

    Daily short percentage continues to be choppy: 40%, 1.92%, 46.6%, 1.13%, 15.24%, 0.78%, 51.05%, 12.17% and 15.38% today. As noted, today's volume suggests continued low percentage for an added day.

    ARCA appeared on the offer again today beginning at 10:11. In and out all day, they got the price deterioration started in earnest when they moved their offer down from their initial $0.095 to $0.0925 at 11:18. By 11:51 ARCA and CSTI were offering at $0.09. At 12:01 $0.0875 was seen. The offers struggled but did manage to improve throughout the day. Near the close $0.0942 was in place as the best offer.

    As with yesterday, there's really no way to determine an outlier status today. There were lots of potential outliers at every price above $0.092. The high of the day, $0.0961, was just one buy of 5.3K. Just below were two buys at $0.0948 totaling ~8.3k. Then were two buys at $0.0946, but you can't toss a72K trade out of consideration can you? And so it goes. If I had to discount something I'd use a high of $0.0946.

    As we've often seen in the past, buy percentage improved as prices plunged to what might be considered absurdly low levels. That didn't stop the sellers though, as can be seen from a VWAP of $0.0904 combined with a buy percentage of only 43.8%, an improvement over yesterday's 15.5%.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -4.44%, -10.94%, -05.18%, 11.05% and 40.40% respectively. Price spread today was 11.74% vs. 19.89%, 9.38%, 8.85%, 21.89%, 11.94%, 10.28%, 3.96%, 8.77% and 17.51% on prior days.

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 21 of the 114 trades, 18.42%. These 1,022,841 shares were 63.15% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0903. 9 of the larger trades, 42.86%, were buys of 490,700 shares, 47.97% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0910. 12 of the larger trades, 57.14%, were sells of 532,141 shares, 52.03% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0897.

    The other 93 trades, 81.58% of the day's trades, traded 596,867 shares, 36.85% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0905. 34 trades, 36.56%, were buys and accounted for 218,495 shares, 36.61% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0913. 57 trades, 61.29%, were sells and accounted for 365,872 shares, 61.30% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0901.

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary time-frames. "Late-day weakness" began at 11:15 today. Based on volume, there was really no recovery from that condition.
    09:44-10:58: 111300 shrs, 06.87% of vol, VWAP $0.0913, 067.7% buys
    11:00-11:12: 131550 shrs, 08.12% of vol, VWAP $0.0923, 019.4% buys
    11:16-11:44: 212600 shrs, 13.13% of vol, VWAP $0.0905, 028.9% buys
    11:45-12:03: 088000 shrs, 05.43% of vol, VWAP $0.0882, 059.7% buys
    12:07-12:46: 164147 shrs, 10.13% of vol, VWAP $0.0913, 077.8% buys
    12:50-13:02: 227500 shrs, 14.05% of vol, VWAP $0.0871, 047.5% buys
    13:03-13:35: 180611 shrs, 11.15% of vol, VWAP $0.0906, 061.5% buys
    14:03-14:37: 256000 shrs, 15.81% of vol, VWAP $0.0906, 011.3% buys
    14:50-15:16: 108500 shrs, 06.70% of vol, VWAP $0.0936, 099.1% buys
    15:19-15:37: 034500 shrs, 02.13% of vol, VWAP $0.0906, 029.0% buys
    15:44-15:58: 104000 shrs, 06.42% of vol, VWAP $0.0904, 000.0% buys
    15:59-15:59: 001000 shrs, 00.06% of vol, VWAP $0.0942, 100.0% buys

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
    $0.0860-$0.0875: 158500 shrs, 09.79% of vol, VWAP $0.0864, 026.8% buys
    $0.0880-$0.0899: 223300 shrs, 13.79% of vol, VWAP $0.0885, 053.5% buys
    $0.0900-$0.0915: 732913 shrs, 45.25% of vol, VWAP $0.0903, 026.9% buys
    $0.0920-$0.0939: 394400 shrs, 24.35% of vol, VWAP $0.0921, 060.7% buys
    $0.0942-$0.0948: 105295 shrs, 06.50% of vol, VWAP $0.0946, 100.0% buys
    $0.0961-$0.0961: 005300 shrs, 00.33% of vol, VWAP $0.0961, 100.0% buys

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
    08/01 $0.0994 -04.47% 59.5%
    08/04 $0.0904 -09.03% 25.6%
    08/05 $0.0915 +01.27% 37.9%
    08/06 $0.0930 +00.27% 65.4%
    08/07 $0.0971 +04.41% 37.4%
    08/08 $0.0957 -01.48% 24.8%
    08/11 $0.1010 +05.52% 23.0%
    08/12 $0.0998 -01.21% 31.5%
    08/13 $0.1005 +00.74% 18.9%
    08/14 $0.0969 -03.56% 09.4%
    08/15 $0.0953 -01.62% 15.5%
    08/18 $0.0904 -05.18% 43.8%

    Here's my newer inflection point calculations. Another high-volume day volume with five periods weakening after four consecutive days of all periods weakening continues the weakening trend.
    _5-day_ 10-day_ _25-day_ _50-day_ _100-day_ _200-day_
    -196.55 -0411.22 -0693.93 -1031.21 -02933.83 -09517.86
    -169.15 -0375.41 -0548.97 -0943.54 -02455.30 -07964.20
    -119.68 -0334.46 -0456.94 -0871.46 -02126.06 -06889.45
    -079.77 -0273.98 -0369.85 -0740.27 -01593.87 -05112.74
    -117.43 -0237.84 -0378.85 -0755.29 -01625.42 -05065.95
    -043.90 -0135.30 -0287.64 -0508.36 -01119.94 -03518.08
    -048.11 -0159.69 -0343.40 -0592.95 -01467.36 -04294.03
    -090.71 -0175.62 -0379.23 -0653.06 -01563.56 -04442.46
    -127.20 -0219.59 -0478.65 -0796.09 -02014.51 -05687.78
    -213.56 -0346.24 -0590.92 -0929.86 -02269.98 -06180.82
    -228.96 -0302.19 -0717.36 -1085.17 -02658.70 -07442.64

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.

    08/15/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 98, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 235000, Vol: 1458550, AvTrSz: 14883
    Min. Pr: 0.0900, Max Pr: 0.1079, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0953
    # Buys, Shares: 36 226377, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0972
    # Sells, Shares: 61 1227173, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0950
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 5000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0947
    Buy:Sell 1:5.42 (15.52% "buys"), DlyShts 177450 (12.17%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 14.46%

    For me, the most important thing today is my concerns about what my newer inflection point calculations may be signaling. I won't replicate my thoughts here. But summarizing both the traditional and non-traditional TA considerations, sub-$0.09 VWAP seems to be near. The $0.09xx support held, so far, 60% longer than the $0.10 support did, so it's getting a bit long in the tooth.

    Details, for you masochists out there, are in the rest of the day's EOD postings.

    I had noted the status of "nothing changed" could be broken if any significant changes are reported in the 10-Q we expected. It was rather bland and devoid of anything earth-shattering items I guess, but the change to that status was significant, in and of itself, in my mind. Whether others saw it that way and whether it affected today's trading I can't say. There were other factors that may easily have had more effect, mentioned in a brief discussion just before the daily listing of the newer inflection point calculations. For a fast jump to there, use your browser search for "false".

    On the traditional TA front, the most significant thing, I think, is that we had a penetration of a short-term rising support, currently about $0.094. But it's really short-term and only has an origin and two prior touch points, so it's strength was not firmly established. Today made the fourth touch and we did close above it. The VWAP was also above it. So this could suggest that it will hold, but there's a lot of other negatives suggesting it won't.

    I think I mentioned a few days back that price range had moved back into the descending trading channel after having been below it a few days. I don't recall mentioning that it was more due to the slope of the channel rather than a rise in price range, although there was some of that involved too. I want to mention that the descending resistance of that channel is rapidly approaching our trading range. It's currently ~$0.11, matching a short-term top seen in the highs since 8/1 and it has been challenged two times subsequent to its origin. Our closes have not approached it during this period. With both that resistance existing and the descending channel resistance about to come into play, I see the chances for breaking above $0.10 continuing to be very low.

    More concerning than the inability to surpass $0.10 is the pressure this implies will be coming to move lower. Our low $0.09xx has already outlasted the five days support seen at $0.10 by 60%. This was after seeing lows and closes two days below $0.09. So, metaphorically it's getting long in the tooth. Add in we are in the period of the month when weakness has been seen for many months. It may be this is still in play regardless of management changes, S-1 and 10-Q filings, etc. I have no way to know.

    All the oscillators I watch, except MFI, weakened. This transition from mixed suggests that real weakness is now being seen. ADX related and accumulation and distribution continued weakening too.

    The Bollinger band extremes had a small change. They are still widely spread and the upper limit is dropping rapidly. The lower limit moved from flat to a slight rise. The upper and lower readings today are $0.1335 and $0.0781. So we are now starting the "pinch" process where the limits converge over time, leading to the "coiled spring" analogy. That situation is some time away yet.

    More pressing is the pending "death cross". I had revised my estimate of this to be middle of next week. Today I revise again to possibly Monday and certainly Tuesday. Readings today are $0.1310 and $0.1303 for the 50 and 200-day SMAs respectively.

    Yesterday I said we have entered short-term consolidation. Short-term is the operative word here. I don't believe we'll make medium-term. I'm not saying a close below $0.09 right away, but it sure looks like that's coming soon.

    My non-traditional stuff is negative regarding a push above $0.10. Worse, it's now negative regarding support at $0.09. First, my newer inflection point calculations have established a trend down with four consecutive days of weakening by all periods. The pattern on the chart is moving strongly in the direction of forming the signal for a down move. Even my original calculations' chart, which appeared to have become desensitized over time, has responded and has all periods drooping noticeably now.

    The daily short percentage was not able to stabilize in a range of normal readings before we got another high-volume wide spread day. Typical behavior now is for it to again tank in a day or two and to see price weaken as it does so.

    As mentioned above, a 300K+ bid appeared at the open for $0.107. Details of its actions and effects are below. NITE showed a bid for 360K at 15:56 for $0.0902. What an opportunist! :-) I didn't see a lot of other larger bids.

    There's really no way to determine an outlier status today - it was all outliers, from the opening 311K $0.107 bid to the late-day $0.09 trades. If it was worth it, I guess some of the lower-volume prices could be considered, but I don't see any value in that in the context of today's behavior.

    ARCA was in early to take advantage of the high bid. I commented at the time (9:48) to expect price deterioration. tinyurl.com/kpr2sme

    By 9:55 we were down to $0.1020, 10:11 $0.0974, 10:25 $0.0903, ...

    There was relatively little upward movement in either the bids or the asks throughout the day. On the ask side, most were from order completion "uncovering" higher bids and they were quickly "covered". Lower bids that were uncovered weren't covered nearly as quickly.

    At 11:26 ATDF disappeared from the market, noted in this comment. At 13:33 they were back, noted in this comment. I can't recall seeing this before in a couple of years of tracking. I'm sure it's happened, but I don't recall it. Very unusual.

    Buy percentage improved in spite of the selling frenzy seen both early and late. This is more a comment on how weak yesterday's 9.4% was rather than a comment that today's 15.5% was "stronger". For some context, through yesterday the buy percentage averages for the 10, 25, 50 and 100-days are 28.93%, 37.48%, 34.71% and 38.39% respectively.

    Daily short percentage continues to be choppy: 40%, 1.92%, 46.6%, 1.13%, 15.24%, 0.78%, 51.05% and 12.17% today. With today's high trade volume and wide price spread, daily short percentage will likely tank again in a day or two, price will tend to weaken and then a choppy daily short percentage attempt to recover to normal levels will likely appear ... unless we get some more high-volume wide-spread days.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -6.25%, 2.76%, -01.62%, 261.95% and -13.73% respectively. Price spread today was 19.89% vs. 9.38%, 8.85%, 21.89%, 11.94%, 10.28%, 3.96%, 8.77%, 17.51% and 29.26% on prior days.

    A note on the larger block trades: a 309.5K bid at $0.107 was entered at the open, an apparent godsend to those wishing to sell. This skewed both the VWAPs and buy percentage of the larger blocks. For a little context: 282,950 shares traded in larger blocks at the $0.107 price, 30.38% of the larger block volume. Sans the $0.107 trades the VWAP of the larger blocks would be $0.0916. The number of shares classified as sells would drop to 588,400.

    Some context at the other end seems warranted too as today was so strange.

    Some other unusually large blocks, even in the larger trades context, were seen at the opposite end of the price scale. These included 235K, 90K and I threw in some at 50K and below because of their price being in the range of the 235K. They occurred in four sells, totaled 420K, 45.10% of the larger block volume, and went for a VWAP of $0.0903.

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 18 of the 98 trades, 18.37%. These 931,350 shares were 63.85% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0963. 3 of the larger trades, 16.67%, were buys of 60,000 shares, 6.44% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0982. 15 of the larger trades, 83.33%, were sells of 871,350 shares, 93.56% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0961.

    The other 80 trades, 81.63% of the day's trades, traded 527,200 shares, 36.15% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0937. 33 trades, 41.25%, were buys and accounted for 166,377 shares, 31.56% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0969. 46 trades, 57.50%, were sells and accounted for 355,823 shares, 67.49% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0922. 1 trade, 1.25%, was unknown and accounted for 5,000 shares, 0.95% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0947.

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary time-frames. "Late-day weakness" personified! But it's exacerbated by the early $0.107 bid detailed above. Note that 311K for $0.107 sells are in the first period. At the other end of the price range, 741.6K at $0.0903 or below traded in the last nine minutes of the last period, beginning at 15:52 and continuing to the close.
    09:30-09:56: 367327 shrs, 25.18% of vol, VWAP $0.1068, 015.1% buys
    10:11-10:26: 066800 shrs, 04.58% of vol, VWAP $0.0941, 000.3% buys
    10:54-11:45: 072500 shrs, 04.97% of vol, VWAP $0.0959, 089.7% buys
    11:46-12:29: 038600 shrs, 02.65% of vol, VWAP $0.0945, 035.2% buys
    12:52-13:59: 040750 shrs, 02.79% of vol, VWAP $0.0951, 048.5% buys
    14:38-15:37: 027000 shrs, 01.85% of vol, VWAP $0.0944, 063.0% buys
    15:48-15:59: 845573 shrs, 57.97% of vol, VWAP $0.0905, 006.5% buys

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the first range includes the 741.6K trades at or below $0.0903. The last range includes the 311K for $0.107 sells.
    $0.0900-$0.0911: 810900 shrs, 55.60% of vol, VWAP $0.0903, 005.8% buys
    $0.0930-$0.0950: 137173 shrs, 09.40% of vol, VWAP $0.0935, 007.3% buys
    $0.0960-$0.0974: 143150 shrs, 09.81% of vol, VWAP $0.0966, 079.2% buys
    $0.1020-$0.1035: 027327 shrs, 01.87% of vol, VWAP $0.1029, 100.0% buys
    $0.1050-$0.1079: 340000 shrs, 23.31% of vol, VWAP $0.1071, 008.3% buys

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line. See the 8/15 EOD post for some exceptional conditions that were seen.
    07/31 $0.1040 -00.64% 19.3%
    08/01 $0.0994 -04.47% 59.5%
    08/04 $0.0904 -09.03% 25.6%
    08/05 $0.0915 +01.27% 37.9%
    08/06 $0.0930 +00.27% 65.4%
    08/07 $0.0971 +04.41% 37.4%
    08/08 $0.0957 -01.48% 24.8%
    08/11 $0.1010 +05.52% 23.0%
    08/12 $0.0998 -01.21% 31.5%
    08/13 $0.1005 +00.74% 18.9%
    08/14 $0.0969 -03.56% 09.4%
    08/15 $0.0953 -01.62% 15.5%

    Here's my newer inflection point calculations. A high-volume day with all periods weakening four consecutive days makes a trend. I believe we are now nearing a break below the $0.09 support. The newer calculations' chart pattern is forming the precursor to such a move. We have also entered the period when weakness has been seen over the last many months - the middle weeks of the month. I was/am wondering if this pattern was still in play, considering the management changes, the S-1 filing, the minimal 10-Q, ...

    Trying to find reasons this may be a false signal, I note the extreme selling induced by the appearance of the 311.6K bid at $0.107. But then I note the sell percentage, 94.2%, that also occurred at the $0.0911 and lower price levels (see the price trading breakdown). So there was apparently a predisposition to sell anyway? The last hopefully ameliorating circumstance would be the concern about the Russia and Ukraine situation going into the weekend. But I haven't noted geopolitical events affecting AXPW behavior in the past. Of course, I wasn't looking for it either.
    _5-day_ 10-day_ _25-day_ _50-day_ _100-day_ _200-day_
    -172.47 -0273.65 -0498.46 -0804.62 -02358.17 -07891.15
    -196.55 -0411.22 -0693.93 -1031.21 -02933.83 -09517.86
    -169.15 -0375.41 -0548.97 -0943.54 -02455.30 -07964.20
    -119.68 -0334.46 -0456.94 -0871.46 -02126.06 -06889.45
    -079.77 -0273.98 -0369.85 -0740.27 -01593.87 -05112.74
    -117.43 -0237.84 -0378.85 -0755.29 -01625.42 -05065.95
    -043.90 -0135.30 -0287.64 -0508.36 -01119.94 -03518.08
    -048.11 -0159.69 -0343.40 -0592.95 -01467.36 -04294.03
    -090.71 -0175.62 -0379.23 -0653.06 -01563.56 -04442.46
    -127.20 -0219.59 -0478.65 -0796.09 -02014.51 -05687.78
    -213.56 -0346.24 -0590.92 -0929.86 -02269.98 -06180.82

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily bost above.

    08/14/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 35, MinTrSz: 480, MaxTrSz: 200000, Vol: 402968, AvTrSz: 11513
    Min. Pr: 0.0960, Max Pr: 0.1050, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0969
    # Buys, Shares: 9 38000, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0982
    # Sells, Shares: 26 364968, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0968
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:9.60 (09.43% "buys"), DlyShts 205700 (51.05%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 56.36%

    My take is essentially status unchanged - going nowhere fast. Nothing supporting a break above $0.10 coming is in the cards I read. Likewise, nothing suggesting a break below $0.09 is likely.

    If any significant changes are reported in the 10-Q expected tonight, things could change.

    One trade of 200K for $0.0970 at 12:14 seriously skewed at least one of the metrics, the buy and sell percentages. Removing the trade helped, but not that much, as buy percentage would move up to 18.72%. So the notable thing about it was that it was apparently in line with the overall sentiment of the day - sell. There was no $0.097 price that was best on the bid or ask at the time, but ATDF did have a 100K bid for that price entered at 09:45, 100K for $0.0966 at 10:25 and a 100K bid for $0.096 at 11:45. All those bids were hidden as the normal ATDF 10K bids $0.0001 better than whatever best bid was in place at the time occurred. Normally I would think these were the same units with the original being canceled and reentered at lower bid prices. But with the 200K trade I'm not sure that's the case. Either way, this was apparently an internal trade or negotiated trade since no bid or ask at the price was presented at the time. The short volume suggests negotiated if we presume the short volume was related to the 200K trade.

    Another effect of the trade was to nearly double the day's volume, which would be 202,968 without that trade, very low volume.

    A third effect may have occurred in the short percentage. Note the daily short volume took a very large jump (+4014.00%) and the absolute short volume is only 5.7K above that 200K. We'll never know.

    Considering that 200K trade and what the volume would be without it, I'd be cautious about giving too much weight to both the traditional and non-traditional evaluations today.

    On the traditional TA front, the oscillators I watch continued mixed today with RSI, MFI and momentum showing small improvement and Williams %R making a large improvement. Full stochastic and ADX related continued weakening, as did accumulation and distribution, which has been weakening since 7/24.

    The Bollinger band extremes are as before - still widely spread, the lower limit flat and the upper limit going down rapidly. The upper and lower readings today are $0.1390 and $0.0768.

    Today I think we can say we have entered short-term consolidation.

    My non-traditional stuff is even more negative regarding a push above $0.10. If we remove just the largest 200K trade, average trade size is 5,970, even smaller than yesterday's 7.9K if that day's 137K trade is removed. Yesterday the average trade size over 10, 25, 50 and 100-day periods were 8913, 9,896, 8,446 and 8,335 respectively. Smaller trade sizes haven't historically pushed prices up. My newer inflection point calculation values are weakening for the third consecutive day. Daily short percentage, which was having trouble returning to normal ranges, made a big jump from 0.78% to 51.05%. This is in line with the predicted "choppy" behavior. Let's hope the next reversal finds a range more normal than the low single-digit and below readings we've been seeing.

    Only ATDF had a 100K bid today and there could have been three separate bids (see above).

    The price outliers today were a sell of 3K shares for $0.1050 at 09:38 and was +5.21% above the nearest reasonable high price with some volume of $0.0998. The next lower price of $0.1049, +5.11% above $0.998, was a buy of 1K shares.

    If I were trying to pick something within range of the day's trend with multiple trades and some volume I would I'd go with $0.0998 for the high.

    ARCA was in and out on the offer several times.

    Only NITE and ATDF were pushing the bid price up, and only after 13:30 but for a couple early in the day exceptions. This late effort was spoiled as the ask prices were pushed lower by the presence of ARCA and NITE was jumping in severely undercutting the best ask several times. This fit with the behavior earlier in the day though as asks generally weakened until the last hour of the day.

    In the non-traditional areas ...

    Buy percentage retreated again from yesterday's 18.9%. Unlike yesterday VWAP did not improve. Removing the 200K trade helped as buy percentage would move up to 18.72%, essentially flat with yesterday's 18.9%, a rotten reading regardless.

    Daily short percentage continues to be choppy: 40%, 1.92%, 46.6%, 1.13%, 15.24%, 0.78% and 51.05% today. Note the short volume of 205.7K is only slightly larger than the 200K sell.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, 0.48%, -03.56%, -36.76% and 4,014.00% respectively. Price spread today was 9.38% vs. 8.85%, 21.89%, 11.94%, 10.28%, 3.96%, 8.77%, 17.51%, 29.26% and 14.36% on prior days.

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 4 of the 35 trades, 11.43%. These 258,500 shares were 64.15% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0968. All were sells.

    The other 31 trades, 88.57% of the day's trades, traded 144,468 shares, 35.85% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0971. 9 trades, 29.03%, were buys and accounted for 38,000 shares, 26.30% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0982. 22 trades, 70.97%, were sells and accounted for 106,468 shares, 73.70% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0968.

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary time-frames. Note the 200K for $0.097 trade is in the period ending at 12:24
    09:30-09:53: 028888 shrs, 07.17% of vol, VWAP $0.0975, 000.0% buys
    10:11-11:07: 032500 shrs, 08.07% of vol, VWAP $0.0966, 000.0% buys
    11:26-11:26: 010000 shrs, 02.48% of vol, VWAP $0.0998, 100.0% buys
    11:30-12:24: 308000 shrs, 76.43% of vol, VWAP $0.0967, 006.5% buys
    13:26-15:44: 022580 shrs, 05.60% of vol, VWAP $0.0979, 031.0% buys
    15:59-15:59: 001000 shrs, 00.25% of vol, VWAP $0.0998, 100.0% buys

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the 200K for $0.097 trade is in the first range.
    $0.0960-$0.0973: 381968 shrs, 94.79% of vol, VWAP $0.0967, 005.2% buys
    $0.0980-$0.0998: 017000 shrs, 04.22% of vol, VWAP $0.0997, 100.0% buys
    $0.1049-$0.1050: 004000 shrs, 00.99% of vol, VWAP $0.1050, 025.0% buys

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
    07/30 $0.1047 -00.42% 12.2%
    07/31 $0.1040 -00.64% 19.3%
    08/01 $0.0994 -04.47% 59.5%
    08/04 $0.0904 -09.03% 25.6%
    08/05 $0.0915 +01.27% 37.9%
    08/06 $0.0930 +00.27% 65.4%
    08/07 $0.0971 +04.41% 37.4%
    08/08 $0.0957 -01.48% 24.8%
    08/11 $0.1010 +05.52% 23.0%
    08/12 $0.0998 -01.21% 31.5%
    08/13 $0.1005 +00.74% 18.9%
    08/14 $0.0969 -03.56% 09.4%

    Here's my newer inflection point calculations. Regardless of volume all the periods have weakened three consecutive days now. I believe it's a trend ... LoL! That will likely be broken again tomorrow, just to confound me!
    _5-day_ 10-day_ _25-day_ _50-day_ _100-day_ _200-day_
    -251.21 -0275.95 -0515.38 -0824.90 -02406.96 -08009.76
    -172.47 -0273.65 -0498.46 -0804.62 -02358.17 -07891.15
    -196.55 -0411.22 -0693.93 -1031.21 -02933.83 -09517.86
    -169.15 -0375.41 -0548.97 -0943.54 -02455.30 -07964.20
    -119.68 -0334.46 -0456.94 -0871.46 -02126.06 -06889.45
    -079.77 -0273.98 -0369.85 -0740.27 -01593.87 -05112.74
    -117.43 -0237.84 -0378.85 -0755.29 -01625.42 -05065.95
    -043.90 -0135.30 -0287.64 -0508.36 -01119.94 -03518.08
    -048.11 -0159.69 -0343.40 -0592.95 -01467.36 -04294.03
    -090.71 -0175.62 -0379.23 -0653.06 -01563.56 -04442.46
    -127.20 -0219.59 -0478.65 -0796.09 -02014.51 -05687.78

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.

    08/13/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 64, MinTrSz: 400, MaxTrSz: 137000, Vol: 637170, AvTrSz: 9956
    Min. Pr: 0.0960, Max Pr: 0.1045, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1005
    # Buys, Shares: 19 120400, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1023
    # Sells, Shares: 45 516770, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1001
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:4.29 (18.90% "buys"), DlyShts 5000 (00.78%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 0.97%

    There was one AH trade for 10K shares that FINRA-reported daily short sales don't include. Adding that to the FINRA trade volume raises it from 627,170 to 637,170 and would lower the short percentage from 00.80% to 00.78%. If the shares are also added to the short sales, the short volume moves from 5,000 to 15,000 and the short percentage would be 2.35%.

    With volume at a decent level today, I assign more confidence to both the traditional and non-traditional evaluations today.

    I think the $0.10 resistance seems a bit less at risk in the near-term. This is mostly because the buy percentage is not able to maintain a healthy trend even with traditional TA charts reflecting the outliers and maybe some positive sentiment existing due the recent changes at Axion and the S-1 filing.

    When we get some volume combined with a very small push up in price, buy percentage seems to suffer. This tells me sellers are taking advantage of the buyers' positive sentiment to unload shares they don't want to hold. Assuming the usual situation exists that there's a lot more shares that are to be distributed than can be absorbed by the current buyers, I see nothing to push price beyond $0.10 consistently for now.

    On the traditional TA front, rising and reasonable volume combined with a close lower than the open would suggest weakness. The oscillators I watch, which had been mostly improving, went mixed today with RSI, MFI, full stochastic and ADX related weakening. Only Williams %R and momentum have a positive bent right now. Accumulation has been weakening since 7/24.

    The Bollinger band extremes are still widely spread. The lower limit has flattened at ~$0.0767 (well, down from $0.0769 - slow enough of a descent to consider it flat) while the upper limit remains in a decisive downward attitude, now going parabolic, and is down to $0.1427 from yesterday's $0.1468.

    Recall we had broke below the descending trading channel's support line and then moved back above the line. We have five consecutive closes above it, which is good, but except for the "high-priced spread" outliers the two prior days we have not been able to move out of a sideways range around the low $0.10xx to high $0.09xx range.

    In the current price range the 50-day SMA, at $0.1336, is still tracking to cross below the 200-day SMA, at $0.1305. I thought probably by Friday 8/15, but now I think the middle of next week is more likely.

    Today continues to look positive for consolidation (sideways trading) to develop.

    I'm still wondering if this is the start of weakening seen in the middle weeks of the month.

    My non-traditional stuff still doesn't support a push above $0.10. If we remove just the largest 137K trade, average trade size is 7.9K. The average trade size over 10, 25, 50 and 100-day periods are 8913, 9,896, 8,446 and 8,335 respectively. Smaller trade sizes haven't historically pushed prices up. My newer inflection point calculation values are weakening for the second consecutive day. Daily short percentage continues having trouble returning to normal ranges (0.78% today) and low daily short percentage tends to be associated with falling price.

    Only NITE had a 100K bid today. NITE also had the 600K bid at $0.085. The 100K was eventually taken after NITE moved it from $0.101 (12:56) to $0.102 (13:34). The order finished filling at 14:17.

    The price outlier today was an odd bird in that it had seven trades totaling 59K shares that had 9K in two sells and the rest in five buys for $0.1045. All occurred from 13:29 to 13:48. This price was +2.35% above the next lower price of $0.1021 (three trades 21.1K). The next lower price traded 100.4K in five trades. The $0.1045 trades were +2.45% above this price.

    If I were trying to pick something within range of the day's trend with multiple trades and some volume I would I'd go with $0.1021 for the high.

    ARCA was in and out on the offer several times.

    Buyers were chasing the price up less aggressively today than yesterday. VWAP still increased 0.74%. But the buy percentage dropped from 31.5% yesterday to 18.9%. All this occurred on volume improvement of 184.52%, mostly driven by six larger trades that accounted for 50.71% of the day's volume at a VWAP of $0.1009. The fifty-eight smaller normal trades' VWAP was $0.1001.

    In the non-traditional areas ...

    Buy percentage retreated from 31.5% while VWAP improved. Since this was on good and rising volume, the pattern of sellers coming in when volume and price rises makes me doubt any break above $0.10 on a consistent basis is near. I'm still not seeing any sign that we'd be likely to go below $0.09 in the near-term.

    Daily short percentage continues to be choppy: 40%, 1.92%, 46.6%, 1.13%, 15.24% and 0.78% today.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 6.67%, -4.74%, 00.74%, 184.52% and -85.35% respectively. Price spread today was 8.85% vs. 21.89%, 11.94%, 10.28%, 3.96%, 8.77%, 17.51%, 29.26%, 14.36% and 5.84% on prior days.

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 6 of the 64 trades, 9.38%. These 323,100 shares were 50.71% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1009. 1 of the larger trades, 16.67%, was a buy of 25,000 shares, 7.74% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1045. 5 of the larger trades, 83.33%, were sells of 298,100 shares, 92.26% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1006.

    The other 58 trades, 90.63% of the day's trades, traded 314,070 shares, 49.29% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1001. 18 trades, 31.03%, were buys and accounted for 95,400 shares, 30.38% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1017. 40 trades, 68.97%, were sells and accounted for 218,670 shares, 69.62% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0993.

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary time-frames. Note the $0.1045 outliers are all in the period ending the period ending 13:48, and 14:18 includes the day's second largest trade, a sell of ~74K for $0.1020. The period ending 14:46 includes the day's largest trade, a sell of 137K for $0.1000, and third largest trade, a sell for 50K for $0.1010.
    09:45-09:47: 017300 shrs, 02.72% of vol, VWAP $0.1006, 043.4% buys
    10:27-11:33: 041700 shrs, 06.54% of vol, VWAP $0.1004, 071.7% buys
    11:34-13:03: 028400 shrs, 04.46% of vol, VWAP $0.1013, 070.4% buys
    13:29-13:48: 064000 shrs, 10.04% of vol, VWAP $0.1043, 078.1% buys
    13:53-14:18: 125500 shrs, 19.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1020, 000.0% buys
    14:19-14:46: 241500 shrs, 37.90% of vol, VWAP $0.1003, 005.4% buys
    15:07-15:55: 108770 shrs, 17.07% of vol, VWAP $0.0969, 000.0% buys
    16:00-16:00: 010000 shrs, 01.57% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 000.0% buys

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the $0.1000 range includes the largest and third largest trades, sells of 137K for $0.10 and 50K for $0.1010. The $0.1020 range includes the second largest trade, a sell of 74.6K for $0.1020.
    $0.0960-$0.0966: 078870 shrs, 12.38% of vol, VWAP $0.0965, 000.0% buys
    $0.0980-$0.0981: 029900 shrs, 04.69% of vol, VWAP $0.0981, 000.0% buys
    $0.1000-$0.1015: 348900 shrs, 54.76% of vol, VWAP $0.1004, 020.2% buys
    $0.1020-$0.1021: 120500 shrs, 18.91% of vol, VWAP $0.1020, 000.0% buys
    $0.1045-$0.1045: 059000 shrs, 09.26% of vol, VWAP $0.1045, 084.7% buys

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
    07/29 $0.1051 -05.60% 45.7%
    07/30 $0.1047 -00.42% 12.2%
    07/31 $0.1040 -00.64% 19.3%
    08/01 $0.0994 -04.47% 59.5%
    08/04 $0.0904 -09.03% 25.6%
    08/05 $0.0915 +01.27% 37.9%
    08/06 $0.0930 +00.27% 65.4%
    08/07 $0.0971 +04.41% 37.4%
    08/08 $0.0957 -01.48% 24.8%
    08/11 $0.1010 +05.52% 23.0%
    08/12 $0.0998 -01.21% 31.5%
    08/13 $0.1005 +00.74% 18.9%

    Here's my newer inflection point calculations. Yesterday volume tanked again and all periods weakened. I wondered if we might be returning to "just noise". Nope! All the periods weakened again even as volume rose substantially.
    _5-day_ 10-day_ _25-day_ _50-day_ _100-day_ _200-day_
    -258.75 -0295.48 -0561.16 -0900.25 -03010.39 -09172.28
    -251.21 -0275.95 -0515.38 -0824.90 -02406.96 -08009.76
    -172.47 -0273.65 -0498.46 -0804.62 -02358.17 -07891.15
    -196.55 -0411.22 -0693.93 -1031.21 -02933.83 -09517.86
    -169.15 -0375.41 -0548.97 -0943.54 -02455.30 -07964.20
    -119.68 -0334.46 -0456.94 -0871.46 -02126.06 -06889.45
    -079.77 -0273.98 -0369.85 -0740.27 -01593.87 -05112.74
    -117.43 -0237.84 -0378.85 -0755.29 -01625.42 -05065.95
    -043.90 -0135.30 -0287.64 -0508.36 -01119.94 -03518.08
    -048.11 -0159.69 -0343.40 -0592.95 -01467.36 -04294.03
    -090.71 -0175.62 -0379.23 -0653.06 -01563.56 -04442.46

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.

    08/12/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 40, MinTrSz: 630, MaxTrSz: 25000, Vol: 223943, AvTrSz: 5599
    Min. Pr: 0.0900, Max Pr: 0.1097, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0998
    # Buys, Shares: 13 70630, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.1017
    # Sells, Shares: 27 153313, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0989
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.17 (31.54% "buys"), DlyShts 34130 (15.24%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 22.26%
    Although it didn't look like it because of the bid and ask behavior, today was weak. Buyers were chasing the price up and the sellers were taking advantage as best they could and volume was low. Sellers were aided and abetted by 100K bids from ETRF, CSTI, CDEL and NITE. NITE could have been the ETRF bid, which I suspect was laid off to NITE as is common with ETRF. The ETRF bid was no longer visible, but it could have been masked by a 50K $0.098 bid from ETRF.

    We also saw normal bids from BKMM but not VFIN. CDEL moved their bid of 100K for $0.099 (11:41) to $0.102 at 15:22. A couple sells may have hit that bid totaling 6K shares.

    In spite of that, VWAP marginally weakened even as buy percentage rose from yesterday's 23% to 31.5% today.

    I'm wondering if this is the start of weakening seen in the middle weeks of the month.

    Donning my TFH, I can't help but wonder if these 100K bids that mostly seem to result in nothing but "show" are just tools to move price up. Combined with a $0.09 900 share sell at the open and the single buy of 5K at $0.1097, we've got a nice wide spread on the charts, setting the stage for MMs and others to make some money.

    All combined, the $0.10 resistance seems at risk in the near-term. This is mostly because I think traditional TA charts reflect the outliers and maybe some positive sentiment exists with the recent changes at Axion and the S-1 filing. But those outliers really bother me - my TFH keeps me worrying that we are being had.

    My non-traditional stuff doesn't support a push above $0.10 though. Smaller average trade size, lower volume, weakening newer inflection point calculation values, and daily short percentage having trouble returning to normal ranges all fail to support a strong push above $0.10.

    But in all cases low volume casts tons of doubt on any TA, including my non-traditional stuff. So I assign no high confidence to either the traditional or non-traditional results I see here.

    We have outliers at both ends of the spectrum today. At the low end was a single sell of 8K for $0.09, the low of the day. The next higher prices were $0.0970 (1 sell 1K), $0.0971 (3 sells 9.4K), $0.0980 (three sells 11.8K).

    If I were trying to pick something within range of the day's trend with multiple trades and some volume I would lean towards $0.0980 as a low value.

    On the high end we saw a single buy of 5K shares for $0.1097. This was in the time-frame when bids were above $0.10 and the recent offers had been very briefly as high as $0.11. The next lower prices were $0.1049 (3 buys of 14.5K) from early in the morning (BTW, $0.1049 has been a commonly seen offer), $0.1030 (1 sell 800), $0.1020 (2 sells 6K) and then $0.10 with lots of trades and volume.

    If I were trying to pick something within range of the day's trend with multiple trades and some volume I would lean towards $0.10 as a high value.

    On the traditional TA front, volume tanked again, exiting what I would think useful, down to ~224K. So the traditional TA readings and thoughts should be taken with a grain, or even two, of salt.

    Recall we had broken below the descending trading channel's support line and then moved back above the line. We now have the fourth consecutive close above it, which is good. I wanted to see us break above and away from it and we appeared to be doing so yesterday as the low moved up and away.

    For the following keep in mind my mention of chasing the price that occurred.

    If we include the low outlier, at the open we moved back to and tested that support today, AFAICT right at $0.09. Support then manifested strongly as bids and asks immediately moved higher and the next trades were much higher at $0.1049. For the rest of the day the lowest price seen was $0.0970.

    If we discount the outliers and use my suggested low and high, $0.0980 and $0.10 respectively, we have a very narrow spread. The volume in this range is 80.04% of today's volume. The effect of TA on the charts would be different because this would give us a "spinning top" candlestick, indicating indecision, especially when combined with low volume.

    The oscillators I watch are all again out of oversold today, except MFI, and strengthening, except for MFI and ADX related. Although volume did weaken today along with VWAP, I still think we can expect no near-term push below $0.09.

    The Bollinger band extremes are still widely spread. The lower limit has flattened at ~$0.0769 while the upper limit remains in a decisive downward attitude and is at $0.1468.

    In the current price range the 50-day SMA is still tracking to cross below the 200-day SMA, probably by Friday 8/15.

    Today continues to look positive for consolidation (sideways trading) to develop.

    In the non-traditional areas ...

    Yesterday I was a bit concerned that the buy percentage dropped again but I opined it may be just that $0.10 range resistance coming into play as bids got into the high $0.09x and low $0.10x areas and at that range sellers could be expected to show up strongly.

    Buy percentage came back today to 31.5% but VWAP weakened 1.21% even so. Since this was on low volume, I'm still not seeing any sign that we'd be likely to go below $0.09 in the near-term. But neither are we likely to smartly break above $0.10 yet.

    Daily short percentage continues to be choppy: 40%, 1.92%, 46.6%, 1.13% and 15.24% today. I've mentioned a lower-trending daily short percentage has been associated with falling price. If daily short percentage can exit it's choppy state I think we'll see even further reduction of the odds for going below $0.09.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -5.76%, 2.62%, -01.21%, -55.12% and 507.62% respectively. Price spread today was 21.89% vs. 11.94%, 10.28%, 3.96%, 8.77%, 17.51%, 29.26%, 14.36%, 5.84% and 8.70% on prior days.

    Using $0.0980 and $0.10 for the low and high the movement for the low and high would be +2.62% instead of -5.76% for the low and -6.45% instead of +2.62% for the high. The spread would be 2.04% instead of 21.89%.

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 2 of the 40 trades, 5.00%. These 48,350 shares were 21.59% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0997. 1 of the larger trades, 50.00%, was a buy of 25,000 shares, 51.71% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1000. 1 of the larger trades, 50.00%, was a sell of 23,350 shares, 48.29% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0993.

    The other 38 trades, 95.00% of the day's trades, traded 175,593 shares, 78.41% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0998. 12 trades, 31.58%, were buys and accounted for 45,630 shares, 25.99% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1026. 26 trades, 68.42%, were sells and accounted for 129,963 shares, 74.01% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0988.

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary time-frames. Note the last period includes the $0.1097 outlier.
    09:30-09:30: 008000 shrs, 03.57% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 000.0% buys
    09:30-09:30: 014500 shrs, 06.47% of vol, VWAP $0.1049, 100.0% buys
    09:44-10:00: 010800 shrs, 04.82% of vol, VWAP $0.0987, 037.0% buys
    10:09-11:41: 019030 shrs, 08.50% of vol, VWAP $0.0977, 003.3% buys
    11:48-11:50: 045000 shrs, 20.09% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 100.0% buys
    12:03-14:58: 104813 shrs, 46.80% of vol, VWAP $0.0995, 001.4% buys
    15:32-16:00: 021800 shrs, 09.73% of vol, VWAP $0.1029, 022.9% buys

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
    $0.0900-$0.0900: 008000 shrs, 03.57% of vol, VWAP $0.0900, 000.0% buys
    $0.0970-$0.0999: 129143 shrs, 57.67% of vol, VWAP $0.0992, 000.5% buys
    $0.1000-$0.1020: 066500 shrs, 29.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1002, 075.9% buys
    $0.1030-$0.1049: 015300 shrs, 06.83% of vol, VWAP $0.1048, 094.8% buys
    $0.1097-$0.1097: 005000 shrs, 02.23% of vol, VWAP $0.1097, 100.0% buys

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
    07/28 $0.1113 -05.51% 30.0%
    07/29 $0.1051 -05.60% 45.7%
    07/30 $0.1047 -00.42% 12.2%
    07/31 $0.1040 -00.64% 19.3%
    08/01 $0.0994 -04.47% 59.5%
    08/04 $0.0904 -09.03% 25.6%
    08/05 $0.0915 +01.27% 37.9%
    08/06 $0.0930 +00.27% 65.4%
    08/07 $0.0971 +04.41% 37.4%
    08/08 $0.0957 -01.48% 24.8%
    08/11 $0.1010 +05.52% 23.0%
    08/12 $0.0998 -01.21% 31.5%

    Here's my newer inflection point calculations. Yesterday had all periods improved, making four of the last five days showing improvement, leading me to think we might be seeing a trend established at last. Well, today volume tanked again and all periods weakened. So much for seeing a trend start. Now with falling VWAP and volume even as buy percentage tries to show an improving trend I think we're victims of the strong resistance I suggested at $0.10. We might be returning to "just noise".
    _5-day_ 10-day_ _25-day_ _50-day_ _100-day_ _200-day_
    -134.82 -0171.43 -0372.29 -0494.57 -01149.54 -04728.89
    -258.75 -0295.48 -0561.16 -0900.25 -03010.39 -09172.28
    -251.21 -0275.95 -0515.38 -0824.90 -02406.96 -08009.76
    -172.47 -0273.65 -0498.46 -0804.62 -02358.17 -07891.15
    -196.55 -0411.22 -0693.93 -1031.21 -02933.83 -09517.86
    -169.15 -0375.41 -0548.97 -0943.54 -02455.30 -07964.20
    -119.68 -0334.46 -0456.94 -0871.46 -02126.06 -06889.45
    -079.77 -0273.98 -0369.85 -0740.27 -01593.87 -05112.74
    -117.43 -0237.84 -0378.85 -0755.29 -01625.42 -05065.95
    -043.90 -0135.30 -0287.64 -0508.36 -01119.94 -03518.08
    -048.11 -0159.69 -0343.40 -0592.95 -01467.36 -04294.03

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.

    08/11/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 52, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 85000, Vol: 498964, AvTrSz: 9595
    Min. Pr: 0.0955, Max Pr: 0.1069, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.1010
    # Buys, Shares: 12 115000, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0999
    # Sells, Shares: 40 383964, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.1013
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:3.34 (23.05% "buys"), DlyShts 5617 (01.13%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 1.46%

    We had one egregious outlier today - a "fishing lure"? It was a 100 share buy at $0.169. The next lower price was $0.105 - a buy of 5K at 11:40 and a sell of 85K at 11:43. Lower price included 2 x 10K buys for $0.1049, one 15K sell for $0.1030, one sell of 3K for $0.1025, two sells for $0.1020 totaling 5.5K. We finally hit more than two trades at a price with some volume that were in range of other prices at $0.1015. I won't suggest which would be a good "real high" if we discount some of these. But I will say that $0.1069 was not a true indication of the trading profile today.

    Check the trading breakdowns by time and price below for that.

    In the larger trades breakdown note the buy/sell percentages and VWAP of the larger block buys vs. sells. These figures are supporting strong resistance at $0.10 I think.

    On the traditional TA front, volume improved again, finally getting into what I would think useful, near 500K.

    I had mentioned we had moved below my short-term descending support and then started moving up and that line would become support. I hoped not as it's descending quite rapidly - I wanted to see us break away from it. It cooperated today with both the third close above the line, currently ~$0.0915 AFAICT, and the low moved up and away today. Let's hope that continues.

    The oscillators I watch are all out of oversold today, except MFI. I thought all would get out of there when I said one more decent day should move several of them out of that condition. Some of them are barely out, but we'll take what we can get. With the improving volume, improving trading range and the oscillators improving I think we can at least look for no near-term push below $0.09.

    The Bollinger band extremes are still widely spread and in a decisive downward attitude. In the current price range the 50-day SMA is still tracking to cross below the 200-day SMA in just a few more days.

    Yesterday I took a stab and said I think some sideways consolidation for at least a few days is in the cards for now. Today looks positive for that to develop now that we've departed above that descending support line.

    I'm still mindful that we are exiting the period where we have seen some improvement in price and are entering the time when we get sags. Now is just a wait and see period.

    In the non-traditional areas ...

    This is the second day wherein buy percentage weakened. Today VWAP moved up nicely on decent volume rather than weakening as it did yesterday. Yesterday as both weakened I said no cause for alarm as buy percentage moved from 37.4% to 24.8% and VWAP dropped 1.48% from $0.0971 to $0.0957. I thought it nothing unusual during low-volume periods following high-volume periods and SEC filings falling on us like bird droppings.

    Today I am a bit concerned that the buy percentage dropped again. But it may be just that $0.10 range resistance coming into play as bids got into the high $0.09x and low $0.10x areas. At that range sellers could be expected to show up strongly.

    We didn't have as many 100K bids today - only NITE and ATDF had them. So we lost CDEL, CSTI and ETRF. On top of that, we've didn't see bids of more normal size from MMs that normally have not participated - we lost BKMM and VFIN.

    All combined, the $0.10 seems more likely to hold as stout resistance in the near-term.

    The low $0.09xx area is looking like stronger support when compared to the $0.10 area. The only thing missing was strong volume. But since 8/5, the second day with a low of $0.0851, we've had a trend of improving volume. In thousands beginning 8/5 we have: 731.66, 120.92, 260.11, 336.54 and ~498.964K.

    I've been mentioning the daily short percentage will be choppy as it moves towards a more normal reading unless volume remains low. "Choppy" manifested again: 40%, 1.92%, 46.6% and 1.13% today. Seeing it come back this low is somewhat concerning. Although directional correlation between buy percentage and short percentage is strong and magnitude correlation is weak, this big of a divergence makes me wonder if something has changed or it's just a "blip". This will bear watching as a lower-trending daily short percentage has been associated with falling price. Fortunately, for the moment at least, it's still only "choppy" and not a trend.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 5.52%, 7.11%, 05.52%, 48.26% and -96.42% respectively. Price spread today was 11.94% vs. 10.28%, 3.96%, 8.77%, 17.51%, 29.26%, 14.36%, 5.84%, 8.70% and 16.32% on prior days.

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 10 of the 52 trades, 19.23%. These 309,700 shares were 62.07% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1013. 2 of the larger trades, 20.00%, were buys of 66,000 shares, 21.31% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0984. 8 of the larger trades, 80.00%, were sells of 243,700 shares, 78.69% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1021.

    The other 42 trades, 80.77% of the day's trades, traded 189,264 shares, 37.93% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.1004. 10 trades, 23.81%, were buys and accounted for 49,000 shares, 25.89% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1018. 32 trades, 76.19%, were sells and accounted for 140,264 shares, 74.11% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.1000.

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary time-frames.
    09:30-09:52: 043147 shrs, 08.65% of vol, VWAP $0.0960, 080.9% buys
    10:01-10:31: 050700 shrs, 10.16% of vol, VWAP $0.0990, 001.4% buys
    10:32-11:03: 076800 shrs, 15.39% of vol, VWAP $0.1003, 070.7% buys
    11:28-11:43: 110000 shrs, 22.05% of vol, VWAP $0.1050, 022.7% buys
    11:47-12:04: 024600 shrs, 04.93% of vol, VWAP $0.1016, 000.4% buys
    12:38-14:52: 167217 shrs, 33.51% of vol, VWAP $0.1007, 000.0% buys
    14:53-15:55: 026500 shrs, 05.31% of vol, VWAP $0.0994, 000.0% buys

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
    $0.0955-$0.0960: 043147 shrs, 08.65% of vol, VWAP $0.0960, 080.9% buys
    $0.0990-$0.1010: 273717 shrs, 54.86% of vol, VWAP $0.0999, 020.1% buys
    $0.1010-$0.1030: 072000 shrs, 14.43% of vol, VWAP $0.1018, 000.0% buys
    $0.1049-$0.1050: 110000 shrs, 22.05% of vol, VWAP $0.1050, 022.7% buys
    $0.1069-$0.1069: 000100 shrs, 00.02% of vol, VWAP $0.1069, 100.0% buys

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
    07/25 $0.1178 -09.19% 23.8%
    07/28 $0.1113 -05.51% 30.0%
    07/29 $0.1051 -05.60% 45.7%
    07/30 $0.1047 -00.42% 12.2%
    07/31 $0.1040 -00.64% 19.3%
    08/01 $0.0994 -04.47% 59.5%
    08/04 $0.0904 -09.03% 25.6%
    08/05 $0.0915 +01.27% 37.9%
    08/06 $0.0930 +00.27% 65.4%
    08/07 $0.0971 +04.41% 37.4%
    08/08 $0.0957 -01.48% 24.8%
    08/11 $0.1010 +05.52% 23.0%

    Here's my newer inflection point calculations. Yesterday broke a trend of three days with all periods improved by posting 2 periods (10 and 200-day) marginally improved while four were marginally weaker. I said "I don't posit the trend of improvement is completely broken yet - volume needs to stabilize and/or improve to make such a determination. For now I'm thinking just normal fluctuations in an improving trend. We'll see". Today returned to all periods improved, making four of the last five days showing improvement.
    _5-day_ 10-day_ _25-day_ _50-day_ _100-day_ _200-day_
    -212.09 -0286.96 -0610.67 -0950.02 -03358.38 -09626.50
    -134.82 -0171.43 -0372.29 -0494.57 -01149.54 -04728.89
    -258.75 -0295.48 -0561.16 -0900.25 -03010.39 -09172.28
    -251.21 -0275.95 -0515.38 -0824.90 -02406.96 -08009.76
    -172.47 -0273.65 -0498.46 -0804.62 -02358.17 -07891.15
    -196.55 -0411.22 -0693.93 -1031.21 -02933.83 -09517.86
    -169.15 -0375.41 -0548.97 -0943.54 -02455.30 -07964.20
    -119.68 -0334.46 -0456.94 -0871.46 -02126.06 -06889.45
    -079.77 -0273.98 -0369.85 -0740.27 -01593.87 -05112.74
    -117.43 -0237.84 -0378.85 -0755.29 -01625.42 -05065.95
    -043.90 -0135.30 -0287.64 -0508.36 -01119.94 -03518.08

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.

    08/08/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 42, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 89530, Vol: 336537, AvTrSz: 8013
    Min. Pr: 0.0905, Max Pr: 0.0998, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0957
    # Buys, Shares: 12 83435, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0969
    # Sells, Shares: 30 253102, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0953
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:3.03 (24.79% "buys"), DlyShts 156963 (46.64%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 62.02%

    Overall I'm getting decent positive indications - that is, no big negatives in our case - from the current behavior. The only real cautionary note at this time is we have been in, and will now exit, the periods that have shown a less weak behavior in the past - the last and first weeks of each month. With the spate of filings and announcements though I can't say whether this is a continuation of that pattern or an effect of the news. If the news flow stops I guess the next two weeks may give an indication - will we weaken or see signs of stability that has been missing in those periods in the past?

    On the traditional TA front, volume improved again, getting above "the very low end" of what I would think useful to just "the low end". This allows giving a bit more weight than yesterday to what the technical stuff suggests. We can move from no confidence at any level to cautious confidence I think.

    We had moved below my short-term descending support, bottoming at $0.0851 on 8/4 and 8/5 on two high-volume days and closed below it those two days, and 8/6 as well. But then we started moving up 8/6 and closed two days above that support, which would then have become resistance, on 8/7 and 8/8. The second close above is supposed to confirm a break above and that line would become support, although I hope not as it's descending quite rapidly - I want to see us break away from it.

    The oscillators I watch, all of which, except full stochastic, went oversold on 7/25 and just moved deeper subsequently, have begun to recover. One more decent day should move several of them out of that condition. Full stochastic went oversold 7/29, bottomed 8/4 and has now moved out of oversold. Daily high's have been consistently in the high $0.09x area and challenging the former brief support, now resistance, of $0.10. However, keep in mind these highs have been mostly "outliers" and shouldn't carry too much weight yet.

    I'd like to say that the Bollinger band suggests a move to ~$0.113 would be rational, but it's just too soon. The extremes are widely spread and both are in a decisive downward attitude. Also, the 50-day SMA will cross below the 200-day SMA in just a few more days. If there's many TA types active in AXPW we may see a flush from them. Honestly, if they are traders and awaiting that signal to flush they've really missed the boat though. That likely happened on the first high-volume day in the last week of July, Friday 7/25, when we dropped below the 200-day SMA for the second day. If they are active now it's more likely they are buying.

    The last traditional TA thing I want to mention is the indecision suggested by a "spinning top" candlestick today and 8/6. I'm going to take a stab and say I think some sideways consolidation for at least a few days is in the cards for now.

    Having said that, we need to keep in mind that we are exiting the period where in the past we have seen some improvement in price and are entering the time when we get sags. We don't know if the SEC filings have affected this behavior or they will break the pattern. So I would emphasize the "caution" more than the "confidence" right now.

    In the non-traditional areas ...

    Yesterday I noted that although buy percentage weakened, the VWAP moved up nicely and I suspected the buy percentage was due to the dregs of the two high-volume days 8/1 and 8/4. Today both weakened a bit - but no cause for alarm - as buy percentage moved from 37.4% to 24.8% and VWAP dropped 1.48% from $0.0971 to $0.0957. I think this is nothing unusual during low-volume periods following high-volume periods and SEC filings falling on us like bird droppings.

    I'm still thinking that the low $0.09xx price is likely (upgraded from "might") to give support better than $0.10 did. This is bolstered by the recent appearance, on multiple days now, of 100K orders in the range just below and ranging up to the middle of the $0.09xx area. Further these come from multiple MMs on the same days, including ATDF, CDEL, CSTI, ETRF and NITE. On top of that, we've seen some bids of more normal size from MMs that normally have not participated - BKMM and VFIN.

    Barring any negative bombshells, I'm thinking this results from the combination of a low price and apparent positive company actions suggested in the SEC filings. It's drawing some folks in believing a favorable risk/reward is developing.

    One last consideration that suggests the low $0.09xx area is likely a stronger support when compared to the $0.10 area: I had detailed in a previous day's post why I initially thought this would be the case. One additional technical consideration has materialized since then.

    I note that when we entered the low $0.10 area, 7/28-7/31, we more or less just crawled sideways in that area with little strength shown. The lows were $0.1010, $0.1005, $0.1000 and $0.1010 and then slipped consistently below $0.10. The VWAPs, already in decline, were $0.1113, $0.1051, $0.1047 and $0.1040 for the same period and continued to decline even as the lows initially held steady.

    In contrast, as we entered the low $0.09xx range the VWAP dropped below $0.10 on 8/1 (the first high-volume day, ~1,072MM shares traded), plunged to $0.0904 on the second consecutive high-volume (~2.122MM shares) day on 8/4 and price has been clawing upward since the third relatively high-volume day (~732K) of 8/5. Note we closed below $0.09 at $0.087 and $0.0892 on 8/4 and 8/5 with lows of $0.0851. VWAPs 8/1 onward: $0.0904, $0.0928, $0.0930, $0.0971 and $0.0957 and our closes have been in the mid-$0.09 area and slightly above since 8/6.

    So in contrast to the $0.10 low support, the low $0.09xx area had a penetration to the middle $0.08xx area and a strong "bounce" back up into the low and middle $0.09xx area. Now it needs to hold for an extended period. If it does so over the next traditionally weak two-week period I think the case is made.

    The only thing missing is strong volume. But since 8/5, the second day with a low of $0.0851, we've had a trend of improving volume. In thousands beginning 8/5: 731.66, 120.92, 260.11 and 336.54.

    Caveat: We do need to keep in mind that the last week and first week of each month has shown better strength than the two middle weeks though. We don't know if this pattern continues or not.

    I've been mentioning the daily short percentage will be choppy as it moves towards a more normal reading unless volume remains low. Volume, although slowly improving, is still low and "choppy" manifested as we've seen daily short percentage move from 40% to 1.92% and up to 46.6% today. I noted it wouldn't stay at that low reading though and we should see price hold up relatively well. As seen above, price is holding fairly well thus far.

    Speaking of price, the day's outliers were the two buys at the high of $0.0998 for 1K and 10K at 14:43 and 14:57. The next lower price of $0.0989 for 5K was in reach of a number of trades with volume at $0.0980 but it was a single small trade. So if one wanted to check for effects of a more representative high, the $0.098 prices would seem most reasonable.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -5.73%, 0.00%, -01.48%, 29.38% and 3,039.26% respectively. Price spread today was 10.28% vs. 3.96%, 8.77%, 17.51%, 29.26%, 14.36%, 5.84%, 8.70%, 16.32% and 25.74% (23.76% if $0.1250 used as high) on prior days.

    If we use $0.098 as the days high, the movement of the high is -1.80% instead of 0% and the spread becomes 8.29% instead of 10.28%.

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 2 of the 42 trades, 4.76%. These 127,864 shares were 37.99% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0960. Both were sells. They were also outliers in that they were 38.3K and 89.5K trades with the next largest being 14K.

    The other 40 trades, 95.24% of the day's trades, traded 208,673 shares, 62.01% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0955. 12 trades, 30.00%, were buys and accounted for 83,435 shares, 39.98% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0969. 28 trades, 70.00%, were sells and accounted for 125,238 shares, 60.02% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0946.

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary time-frames. Note the first period contains the day's largest trade of 89.5K for $0.0952 and the last period includes the next largest, 38.3K for $0.0980.
    09:35-10:48: 145000 shrs, 43.09% of vol, VWAP $0.0952, 006.6% buys
    10:54-13:15: 022501 shrs, 06.69% of vol, VWAP $0.0909, 000.0% buys
    13:40-14:43: 038936 shrs, 11.57% of vol, VWAP $0.0953, 091.0% buys
    14:47-15:07: 029300 shrs, 08.71% of vol, VWAP $0.0973, 034.1% buys
    15:26-15:35: 020000 shrs, 05.94% of vol, VWAP $0.0956, 020.0% buys
    15:52-15:59: 080800 shrs, 24.01% of vol, VWAP $0.0976, 030.3% buys

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the third range has the day's largest trade, 89.5K for $0.0952 and the last range includes the second largest, 38.3K for $0.098.
    $0.0905-$0.0911: 022501 shrs, 06.69% of vol, VWAP $0.0909, 000.0% buys
    $0.0935-$0.0935: 002000 shrs, 00.59% of vol, VWAP $0.0935, 000.0% buys
    $0.0941-$0.0954: 205800 shrs, 61.15% of vol, VWAP $0.0951, 019.2% buys
    $0.0960-$0.0965: 023400 shrs, 06.95% of vol, VWAP $0.0963, 000.0% buys
    $0.0980-$0.0998: 082836 shrs, 24.61% of vol, VWAP $0.0983, 053.0% buys

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
    07/24 $0.1297 -01.48% 49.1%
    07/25 $0.1178 -09.19% 23.8%
    07/28 $0.1113 -05.51% 30.0%
    07/29 $0.1051 -05.60% 45.7%
    07/30 $0.1047 -00.42% 12.2%
    07/31 $0.1040 -00.64% 19.3%
    08/01 $0.0994 -04.47% 59.5%
    08/04 $0.0904 -09.03% 25.6%
    08/05 $0.0915 +01.27% 37.9%
    08/06 $0.0930 +00.27% 65.4%
    08/07 $0.0971 +04.41% 37.4%
    08/08 $0.0957 -01.48% 24.8%

    Here's my newer inflection point calculations. Still a low volume day, but again improved. We had seen improvement across the board for three consecutive days. Today breaks the trend with 2 periods (10 and 200-day) marginally improved while four are marginally weaker. I don't posit the trend of improvement is completely broken yet - volume needs to stabilize and/or improve to make such a determination. For now I'm thinking just normal fluctuations in an improving trend. We'll see.
    _5-day_ 10-day_ _25-day_ _50-day_ _100-day_ _200-day_
    -108.47 -0135.29 -0468.19 -0737.60 -02900.85 -08684.19
    -212.09 -0286.96 -0610.67 -0950.02 -03358.38 -09626.50
    -134.82 -0171.43 -0372.29 -0494.57 -01149.54 -04728.89
    -258.75 -0295.48 -0561.16 -0900.25 -03010.39 -09172.28
    -251.21 -0275.95 -0515.38 -0824.90 -02406.96 -08009.76
    -172.47 -0273.65 -0498.46 -0804.62 -02358.17 -07891.15
    -196.55 -0411.22 -0693.93 -1031.21 -02933.83 -09517.86
    -169.15 -0375.41 -0548.97 -0943.54 -02455.30 -07964.20
    -119.68 -0334.46 -0456.94 -0871.46 -02126.06 -06889.45
    -079.77 -0273.98 -0369.85 -0740.27 -01593.87 -05112.74
    -117.43 -0237.84 -0378.85 -0755.29 -01625.42 -05065.95

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are are in the latest daily post above.

    08/07/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 42, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 23000, Vol: 260112, AvTrSz: 6193
    Min. Pr: 0.0960, Max Pr: 0.0998, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0971
    # Buys, Shares: 11 97300, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0976
    # Sells, Shares: 30 152812, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0967
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 10000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0998
    Buy:Sell 1:1.57 (37.41% "buys"), DlyShts 5000 (01.92%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 3.27%

    Volume improved to the very low end of what I would think useful for giving some weight to what the technical stuff suggests. But not anywhere near what's needed for confidence at any level.

    Although buy percentage weakened, the VWAP moved up nicely. I suspect the buy percentage is due to the dregs of the two high-volume days 8/1 and 8/4. Anyway, this gives some support that the low $0.09xx price might give the support better than $0.10 that I was thinking would materialize. Time, time, time to wait and wait and wait to see.

    Today is the third consecutive day that has some signs that this may work out to be stronger support. Can't say it will not let us drop, but I believe it will take longer to move decisively below $0.09 than it did to move below $0.10.

    No sign of the 600K bid today. However, we did see 100K bids from CDEL, CSTI and ETRF mixed in with the normal stuff.

    I mentioned yesterday the improvement in daily short percentage continued and ended with "Do keep in mind that the daily short percentage will be choppy as it moves towards a more normal reading unless volume remains low". Today volume doubled and the "choppy" manifested as we see a daily short percentage move from 40% to 1.92% today. It won't stay there though and as it makes its "leg up", choppy or not, we should see price hold up relatively well. All bets off if we get MM-share days.

    Let's add in that we'll be exiting what had been weak periods for a long time - the first and last week of each month. We don't know if the pattern holds because this month the 8-Ks affected everything.

    CORRECTION: "Let's add in that we'll be exiting what had been weak periods for a long time - the first and last week of each month" was 180 degrees out.

    First and last weeks of the month had displayed *less* weakness, and even some tendency to rise, and we "sagged" in the middle weeks.

    No really egregious outliers were seen today.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 6.55%, 1.84%, 04.41%, 115.10% and -89.68% respectively. Price spread today was 3.96% vs. 8.77%, 17.51%, 29.26%, 14.36%, 5.84%, 8.70%, 16.32% 25.74% (23.76% if $0.1250 used as high) and 20.82% on prior days.

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 4 of the 42 trades, 9.52%. These 75,001 shares were 28.83% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0974. 1 of the larger trades, 25.00%, was a buy of 18,500 shares, 24.67% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0970. 3 of the larger trades, 75.00%, were sells of 56,501 shares, 75.33% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0975.

    The other 38 trades, 90.48% of the day's trades, traded 185,111 shares, 71.17% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0970. 10 trades, 26.32%, were buys and accounted for 78,800 shares, 42.57% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0977. 27 trades, 71.05%, were sells and accounted for 96,311 shares, 52.03% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0962. 1 trade, 2.63%, was an unknown and accounted for 10,000 shares, 5.40% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0998.

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary time-frames. Note the first period contains the low outlier of 600 shares at $0.0851 and the 11:08 ending period contains the 109 share $0.10 trade.
    09:43-10:48: 075601 shrs, 29.06% of vol, VWAP $0.0980, 042.3% buys
    10:55-13:16: 059600 shrs, 22.91% of vol, VWAP $0.0963, 016.8% buys
    13:31-13:34: 020000 shrs, 07.69% of vol, VWAP $0.0979, 100.0% buys
    13:37-15:30: 040520 shrs, 15.58% of vol, VWAP $0.0964, 029.1% buys
    15:38-15:38: 033500 shrs, 12.88% of vol, VWAP $0.0978, 070.1% buys
    15:41-15:53: 030891 shrs, 11.88% of vol, VWAP $0.0963, 000.0% buys

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
    $0.0960-$0.0964: 113111 shrs, 43.49% of vol, VWAP $0.0962, 001.6% buys
    $0.0970-$0.0979: 085500 shrs, 32.87% of vol, VWAP $0.0975, 100.0% buys
    $0.0980-$0.0987: 051501 shrs, 19.80% of vol, VWAP $0.0981, 019.4% buys
    $0.0998-$0.0998: 010000 shrs, 03.84% of vol, VWAP $0.0998, 000.0% buys

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
    07/23 $0.1317 +00.16% 62.0%
    07/24 $0.1297 -01.48% 49.1%
    07/25 $0.1178 -09.19% 23.8%
    07/28 $0.1113 -05.51% 30.0%
    07/29 $0.1051 -05.60% 45.7%
    07/30 $0.1047 -00.42% 12.2%
    07/31 $0.1040 -00.64% 19.3%
    08/01 $0.0994 -04.47% 59.5%
    08/04 $0.0904 -09.03% 25.6%
    08/05 $0.0915 +01.27% 37.9%
    08/06 $0.0930 +00.27% 65.4%
    08/07 $0.0971 +04.41% 37.4%

    Here's my newer inflection point calculations. Still a low volume day again, but improved. Regardless that it makes suspect any substantive evaluation of the changes in the calculation results, it's good to see improvement across the board for the third consecutive day.
    _5-day_ 10-day_ _25-day_ _50-day_ _100-day_ _200-day_
    -011.84 -0048.89 -0313.49 -0542.03 -01873.47 -06304.63
    -108.47 -0135.29 -0468.19 -0737.60 -02900.85 -08684.19
    -212.09 -0286.96 -0610.67 -0950.02 -03358.38 -09626.50
    -134.82 -0171.43 -0372.29 -0494.57 -01149.54 -04728.89
    -258.75 -0295.48 -0561.16 -0900.25 -03010.39 -09172.28
    -251.21 -0275.95 -0515.38 -0824.90 -02406.96 -08009.76
    -172.47 -0273.65 -0498.46 -0804.62 -02358.17 -07891.15
    -196.55 -0411.22 -0693.93 -1031.21 -02933.83 -09517.86
    -169.15 -0375.41 -0548.97 -0943.54 -02455.30 -07964.20
    -119.68 -0334.46 -0456.94 -0871.46 -02126.06 -06889.45
    -079.77 -0273.98 -0369.85 -0740.27 -01593.87 -05112.74

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.

    08/06/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 22, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol: 120924, AvTrSz: 5497
    Min. Pr: 0.0901, Max Pr: 0.0980, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0930
    # Buys, Shares: 10 79050, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0937
    # Sells, Shares: 12 41874, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0918
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.89:1 (65.37% "buys"), DlyShts 48450 (40.07%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 115.70%

    The very low volume would make all traditional TA commentary end with "but the low volume suggests little weight should be given ...", so I'll leave it at that today.

    Yesterday I noted an improved buy percentage and VWAP on lower, but still quite reasonable for us, volume provided the possibility that support would materialize and hold and prove to be stronger than the $0.10 price.

    Today offers the first suggestion it might work out, but for the very low volume. That volume is unreasonable, even for us. So assessment must go on hold until either time or volume, or both, give us better clues.

    No sign of the 600K bid today.

    The improvement in daily short percentage continued, going from 3.91% to 21.57% and now 40.07%. I'm glad to see this because otherwise I would have expected VWAP to weaken rather than improve as it did. Do keep in mind that the daily short percentage will be choppy as it moves towards a more normal reading unless volume remains low.

    We had outliers at the high end of the price range today. Two trades far out of range occurred. At 15:39, 5K was bought for $0.1080, and at 15:43 700 shares sold for $0.0970. The next lower price was $0.0940 for 10K and then $0.0938, $0.0937, ... all with some volume and within a "normal" progressive range.

    If one wanted to look at some numbers with the outliers discounted, $0.0940 as the high seems appropriate.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 5.88%, -2.00%, 00.27%, -83.47% and -69.30% respectively. Price spread today was 8.77% vs. 17.51%, 29.26%, 14.36%, 5.84%, 8.70%, 16.32%, 25.74% (23.76% if $0.1250 used as high), 20.82% and 6.22% on prior days.

    Using $0.094 for the high, the movement of the high price would be -6.00%, rather than the reported -2.00%, and the spread for the day would be 4.33%, rather than 8.77%.

    There was only one larger trade, a 40K buy for $0.0935.

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary time-frames. Note the first period contains the low outlier of 600 shares at $0.0851 and the 11:08 ending period contains the 109 share $0.10 trade.
    09:30-10:05: 013450 shrs, 11.12% of vol, VWAP $0.0937, 100.0% buys
    10:42-11:13: 053900 shrs, 44.57% of vol, VWAP $0.0932, 092.8% buys
    11:19-12:17: 018774 shrs, 15.53% of vol, VWAP $0.0907, 021.3% buys
    14:41-15:06: 018600 shrs, 15.38% of vol, VWAP $0.0923, 035.5% buys
    15:29-15:59: 016200 shrs, 13.40% of vol, VWAP $0.0953, 030.9% buys

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
    $0.0901-$0.0901: 017274 shrs, 14.29% of vol, VWAP $0.0901, 000.0% buys
    $0.0910-$0.0930: 032900 shrs, 27.21% of vol, VWAP $0.0926, 057.8% buys
    $0.0935-$0.0940: 065050 shrs, 53.79% of vol, VWAP $0.0936, 084.6% buys
    $0.0970-$0.0980: 005700 shrs, 04.71% of vol, VWAP $0.0979, 087.7% buys

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
    07/22 $0.1315 -00.26% 50.6%
    07/23 $0.1317 +00.16% 62.0%
    07/24 $0.1297 -01.48% 49.1%
    07/25 $0.1178 -09.19% 23.8%
    07/28 $0.1113 -05.51% 30.0%
    07/29 $0.1051 -05.60% 45.7%
    07/30 $0.1047 -00.42% 12.2%
    07/31 $0.1040 -00.64% 19.3%
    08/01 $0.0994 -04.47% 59.5%
    08/04 $0.0904 -09.03% 25.6%
    08/05 $0.0915 +01.27% 37.9%
    08/06 $0.0930 +00.27% 65.4%

    Here's my newer inflection point calculations. A very low volume day day again makes suspect any substantive evaluation of the changes in the calculation results. Still, it's good to see improvement across the board for the second consecutive day.
    _5-day_ 10-day_ _25-day_ _50-day_ _100-day_ _200-day_
    -018.40 -0053.47 -0308.37 -0554.64 -01849.94 -06254.12
    -011.84 -0048.89 -0313.49 -0542.03 -01873.47 -06304.63
    -108.47 -0135.29 -0468.19 -0737.60 -02900.85 -08684.19
    -212.09 -0286.96 -0610.67 -0950.02 -03358.38 -09626.50
    -134.82 -0171.43 -0372.29 -0494.57 -01149.54 -04728.89
    -258.75 -0295.48 -0561.16 -0900.25 -03010.39 -09172.28
    -251.21 -0275.95 -0515.38 -0824.90 -02406.96 -08009.76
    -172.47 -0273.65 -0498.46 -0804.62 -02358.17 -07891.15
    -196.55 -0411.22 -0693.93 -1031.21 -02933.83 -09517.86
    -169.15 -0375.41 -0548.97 -0943.54 -02455.30 -07964.20
    -119.68 -0334.46 -0456.94 -0871.46 -02126.06 -06889.45

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.

    08/05/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 76, MinTrSz: 109, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol: 731659, AvTrSz: 9627
    Min. Pr: 0.0851, Max Pr: 0.1000, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0928
    # Buys, Shares: 31 275793, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0936
    # Sells, Shares: 42 402633, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0923
    # Unkn, Shares: 3 53233, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0921
    Buy:Sell 1:1.46 (37.69% "buys"), DlyShts 157826 (21.57%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 39.20%

    Yesterday the 8-K trashed the low $0.09xx support thought I have been expressing, at least for the day. Today an improved buy percentage and VWAP on lower, but still quite reasonable for us, volume provides the possibility that support will materialize and hold and prove to be stronger than the $0.10 price, in which I had little faith. Time will tell I guess.

    Yesterday I thought 600K had been taken out. Wrong! It appeared today around 11:11 via NITE as 610K.

    As buy percentage improved and the expected effects of high volume combined with low daily short percentage appeared, we had the predicted improvement in daily short percentage from 3.91% to 21.57%. I'm glad to see this because otherwise I would have expected VWAP to weaken rather than improve as it did.

    We had outliers at both ends of the price range today. At the low end was a single sell of 600 shares for $0.0851 at 9:30:06, the second trade of the day. It was -3.30% below the next higher price of $0.0880, which had several trades and some volume and was within range of the next higher trading prices. Additionally, this single sell was "bracketed by the first and third trades, two buys of 300 shares (day's first trade) and 10K shares (third trade). It was -7.50% below these two trades.

    At the high end was one 109 share buy at $0.10, 4.82% above the next lower price which was also a single buy, but of 10K at $0.0954 and within range of the next lower price of $0.1049 which had several trades and some volume.

    If one wanted to look at some numbers with these low and high outliers discounted, $0.880 for the low and $0.0954 for the high seems appropriate.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved 0.00%, -9.09%, 01.27%, -65.05% and 90.15% respectively. Price spread today was 17.51% vs 29.26%, 14.36%, 5.84%, 8.70%, 16.32%, 25.74% (23.76% if $0.1250 used as high), 20.82%, 6.22% and 2.31% on prior days.

    Using $0.880 and $0.0954 for the low and high respectively, the movement of the low and high prices would be 3.41% and -13.27% respectively, rather than the reported 0% and -9.09%, and the spread for the day would be 8.41%, rather than 17.51%.

    I'm still waiting for things to settle a bit. Maybe as it does we'll see some signs that price won't touch and go below our prior intra-day low, $0.08. The thought that we'd "touch and go below" yesterday was based only on how things have always behaved. Seeing an improved buy percentage and VWAP moving further above $0.09 gives hope.

    That also adds a suggestion that we could see the expected "stronger" support at the low $0.09xx range subsequent to the 8-K MDA effects on the day of it's filing. Right now that's just hopium. Seeing support in a trend with some strengthening metrics are needed to convert it to more than that.

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 10 of the 76 trades, 13.16%. These 363,000 shares were 48.94% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0916. 4 of the larger trades, 40.00%, were buys of 119,000 shares, 32.78% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0915. 5 of the larger trades, 50.00%, were sells of 194,000 shares, 53.44% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0915. 1 of the larger trades, 10.00%, was unknown, comprising 50,000 shares, 13.77% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0920.

    The other 66 trades, 86.84% of the day's trades, traded 378,659 shares, 51.06% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0915. 27 trades, 40.91%, were buys and accounted for 161,793 shares, 42.73% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0922. 37 trades, 56.06%, were sells and accounted for 213,633 shares, 56.42% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0909. 2 trades, 3.03%, were unknowns and accounted for 3,233 shares, 0.85% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0935.

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary time-frames. Note the first period contains the low outlier of 600 shares at $0.0851 and the 11:08 ending period contains the 109 share $0.10 trade.
    09:30-10:48: 123900 shrs, 16.71% of vol, VWAP $0.0919, 070.5% buys
    10:58-11:08: 020109 shrs, 02.71% of vol, VWAP $0.0949, 090.4% buys
    11:10-11:39: 091867 shrs, 12.39% of vol, VWAP $0.0920, 009.0% buys
    11:43-13:58: 096633 shrs, 13.03% of vol, VWAP $0.0922, 041.4% buys
    14:00-14:00: 216100 shrs, 29.14% of vol, VWAP $0.0914, 002.3% buys
    14:01-14:05: 042350 shrs, 05.71% of vol, VWAP $0.0887, 037.7% buys
    14:09-14:35: 095100 shrs, 12.82% of vol, VWAP $0.0915, 100.0% buys
    14:37-14:46: 019300 shrs, 02.60% of vol, VWAP $0.0901, 057.0% buys
    15:17-15:46: 036300 shrs, 04.89% of vol, VWAP $0.0902, 000.0% buys

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
    $0.0851-$0.0851: 000600 shrs, 00.08% of vol, VWAP $0.0851, 000.0% buys
    $0.0880-$0.0895: 050350 shrs, 06.79% of vol, VWAP $0.0887, 031.7% buys
    $0.0900-$0.0924: 613933 shrs, 82.78% of vol, VWAP $0.0915, 035.0% buys
    $0.0925-$0.0949: 066667 shrs, 08.99% of vol, VWAP $0.0934, 059.6% buys
    $0.0954-$0.0954: 010000 shrs, 01.35% of vol, VWAP $0.0954, 100.0% buys
    $0.1000-$0.1000: 000109 shrs, 00.01% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 100.0% buys

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
    07/21 $0.1318 -01.94% 34.4%
    07/22 $0.1315 -00.26% 50.6%
    07/23 $0.1317 +00.16% 62.0%
    07/24 $0.1297 -01.48% 49.1%
    07/25 $0.1178 -09.19% 23.8%
    07/28 $0.1113 -05.51% 30.0%
    07/29 $0.1051 -05.60% 45.7%
    07/30 $0.1047 -00.42% 12.2%
    07/31 $0.1040 -00.64% 19.3%
    08/01 $0.0994 -04.47% 59.5%
    08/04 $0.0904 -09.03% 25.6%
    08/05 $0.0915 +01.27% 37.9%

    Here's my newer inflection point calculations.
    _5-day_ 10-day_ _25-day_ _50-day_ _100-day_ _200-day_
    -052.40 -0075.51 -0357.46 -0644.63 -02037.68 -06679.46
    -018.40 -0053.47 -0308.37 -0554.64 -01849.94 -06254.12
    -011.84 -0048.89 -0313.49 -0542.03 -01873.47 -06304.63
    -108.47 -0135.29 -0468.19 -0737.60 -02900.85 -08684.19
    -212.09 -0286.96 -0610.67 -0950.02 -03358.38 -09626.50
    -134.82 -0171.43 -0372.29 -0494.57 -01149.54 -04728.89
    -258.75 -0295.48 -0561.16 -0900.25 -03010.39 -09172.28
    -251.21 -0275.95 -0515.38 -0824.90 -02406.96 -08009.76
    -172.47 -0273.65 -0498.46 -0804.62 -02358.17 -07891.15
    -196.55 -0411.22 -0693.93 -1031.21 -02933.83 -09517.86
    -169.15 -0375.41 -0548.97 -0943.54 -02455.30 -07964.20

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.

    08/04/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 154, MinTrSz: 7, MaxTrSz: 109555, Vol: 2122206, AvTrSz: 13781
    Min. Pr: 0.0851, Max Pr: 0.1100, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0904
    # Buys, Shares: 57 542417, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0907
    # Sells, Shares: 94 1553289, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0903
    # Unkn, Shares: 3 26500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0872
    Buy:Sell 1:2.86 (25.56% "buys"), DlyShts 83000 (03.91%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 5.34%

    A form 8-K MDA was filed wherein we find the warrants have been upped to convert at 1.7 shares and that Tom Granville has resigned and will be consulting with the company.

    I've been saying that the low $0.09x area seems to be a potential stronger support area. The 8-K trashed that possibility, at least for the day. It's time to wait and see again for a few days.

    The 600K $0.085 seems to have been taken out today. We have a history of repeatedly making new all-time intra-day lows. I don't know if that pattern will hold with all the potential positives, but with the negatives also looming, it seems likely.

    As buy percentage dropped from yesterday's 59.5% to 25.6% today on high volume, the daily short sales percentage "leg up" that would normally be underway was interrupted. Short percentage dropped to 3.91% from the 16.25% improvement from 0.07%. Since we have high volume again, we'll see another cycle start (if the effects of the 8-K are mostly over) with an increased short percentage as soon as tomorrow, Tuesday and almost certainly by Wednesday. This will help stabilize the price for a short period.

    Another day of high volume and spread today delivers many potential outliers over a wide price range at the high end. But with the apparent 8-K effects there's little to be gained from examining the effects of discounting them. When things settle down the value of discounting them in trying to help assessment of sentiment or trends will return.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -11.45%, 0.09%, -09.03%, 97.91% and -52.38% respectively. Price spread today was 29.26% vs. 14.36%, 5.84%, 8.70%, 16.32%, 25.74% (23.76% if $0.1250 used as high), 20.82%, 6.22%, 2.31% and 2.69% on prior days.

    In the traditional TA area, I think waiting for things to settle a bit is prudent. The only thing I guess is that, as in the past, we'll touch and go below our prior intra-day low, $0.08. But this is based only on how things have always behaved.

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 38 of the 154 trades, 24.68%. These 1,233,073 shares were 58.10% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0902. 8 of the larger trades, 21.05%, were buys of 214,425 shares, 17.39% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0902. 30 of the larger trades, 78.95%, were sells of 1,018,648 shares, 82.61% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0991.

    The other 116 trades, 75.32% of the day's trades, traded 889,133 shares, 41.90% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0907. 49 trades, 42.24%, were buys and accounted for 327,992 shares, 36.89% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0911. 64 trades, 55.17%, were sells and accounted for 534,641 shares, 60.13% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0905. 3 trades, 2.59%, were unknowns and accounted for 26,500 shares, 2.98% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0872.

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary time-frames.
    09:30-09:49: 010499 shrs, 00.49% of vol, VWAP $0.1085, 100.0% buys
    10:09-10:24: 091500 shrs, 04.31% of vol, VWAP $0.0958, 010.9% buys
    10:32-10:59: 173000 shrs, 08.15% of vol, VWAP $0.0933, 005.8% buys
    11:13-11:14: 020000 shrs, 00.94% of vol, VWAP $0.0922, 000.0% buys
    11:33-11:55: 135000 shrs, 06.36% of vol, VWAP $0.0930, 005.2% buys
    12:01-12:19: 629950 shrs, 29.68% of vol, VWAP $0.0898, 012.7% buys
    12:35-12:50: 077445 shrs, 03.65% of vol, VWAP $0.0894, 087.1% buys
    13:06-13:26: 154300 shrs, 07.27% of vol, VWAP $0.0893, 046.7% buys
    13:34-13:56: 281000 shrs, 13.24% of vol, VWAP $0.0934, 033.8% buys
    14:00-14:00: 025000 shrs, 01.18% of vol, VWAP $0.0948, 100.0% buys
    14:45-14:53: 057680 shrs, 02.72% of vol, VWAP $0.0902, 004.6% buys
    15:12-15:29: 178300 shrs, 08.40% of vol, VWAP $0.0865, 020.1% buys
    15:30-15:44: 126657 shrs, 05.97% of vol, VWAP $0.0860, 077.6% buys
    15:50-15:57: 161875 shrs, 07.63% of vol, VWAP $0.0861, 017.6% buys

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range.
    $0.0851-$0.0870: 459852 shrs, 21.67% of vol, VWAP $0.0861, 027.7% buys
    $0.0875-$0.0896: 369925 shrs, 17.43% of vol, VWAP $0.0886, 025.8% buys
    $0.0900-$0.0922: 583430 shrs, 27.49% of vol, VWAP $0.0905, 027.8% buys
    $0.0926-$0.0949: 588000 shrs, 27.71% of vol, VWAP $0.0933, 017.0% buys
    $0.0950-$0.0961: 073500 shrs, 03.46% of vol, VWAP $0.0952, 040.8% buys
    $0.0989-$0.0990: 017000 shrs, 00.80% of vol, VWAP $0.0990, 100.0% buys
    $0.1000-$0.1099: 005500 shrs, 00.26% of vol, VWAP $0.1072, 100.0% buys
    $0.1100-$0.1100: 004999 shrs, 00.24% of vol, VWAP $0.1100, 100.0% buys

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
    07/18 $0.1344 -00.60% 64.9%
    07/21 $0.1318 -01.94% 34.4%
    07/22 $0.1315 -00.26% 50.6%
    07/23 $0.1317 +00.16% 62.0%
    07/24 $0.1297 -01.48% 49.1%
    07/25 $0.1178 -09.19% 23.8%
    07/28 $0.1113 -05.51% 30.0%
    07/29 $0.1051 -05.60% 45.7%
    07/30 $0.1047 -00.42% 12.2%
    07/31 $0.1040 -00.64% 19.3%
    08/01 $0.0994 -04.47% 59.5%
    08/04 $0.0904 -09.03% 25.6%

    Here's my newer inflection point calculations.
    _5-day_ 10-day_ _25-day_ _50-day_ _100-day_ _200-day_
    -054.16 -0081.33 -0378.70 -0704.36 -02177.30 -07014.61
    -052.40 -0075.51 -0357.46 -0644.63 -02037.68 -06679.46
    -018.40 -0053.47 -0308.37 -0554.64 -01849.94 -06254.12
    -011.84 -0048.89 -0313.49 -0542.03 -01873.47 -06304.63
    -108.47 -0135.29 -0468.19 -0737.60 -02900.85 -08684.19
    -212.09 -0286.96 -0610.67 -0950.02 -03358.38 -09626.50
    -134.82 -0171.43 -0372.29 -0494.57 -01149.54 -04728.89
    -258.75 -0295.48 -0561.16 -0900.25 -03010.39 -09172.28
    -251.21 -0275.95 -0515.38 -0824.90 -02406.96 -08009.76
    -172.47 -0273.65 -0498.46 -0804.62 -02358.17 -07891.15
    -196.55 -0411.22 -0693.93 -1031.21 -02933.83 -09517.86

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.

    08/01/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 95, MinTrSz: 1, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol: 1072327, AvTrSz: 11288
    Min. Pr: 0.0961, Max Pr: 0.1099, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.0994
    # Buys, Shares: 61 638409, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0996
    # Sells, Shares: 34 433918, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.0990
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.47:1 (59.53% "buys"), DlyShts 174305 (16.25%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 40.17%

    Yesterday's few morsels of "good news", which weren't "all that", vanished in a puff of smoke as the projected "not that strong" support at $0.10 finally apparently gave way. I didn't expect it this rapidly and with this kind of volume though. I rather envisioned an extended low-volume sag initially, as we dipped our toes into the frigid realms below $0.10, and then a volume spike as we jumped completely into those frigid waters. I guess folks decided to just "take the plunge".

    I've been saying that the low $0.09x area seems to be a potential stronger support area. The first inkling that may support that appeared today as we saw a 600K bid at $0.085 from NITE. I suspect it is a standing order - we'll have to keep an eye open to confirm that.

    What seems to happen with larger bids like that is that better bids begin to stack up just above it for a while, supporting price. The question is will that happen as time passes and will the 600K remain, be moved up or what. Parts of it could be parceled out at higher or lower prices. Last time we had this situation, what I just described occurred and eventually supporting bids moved to match the big one, giving us a total around 784K, IIRC, and once we got to that price in trading we blew through the whole quantity in just a few days and went on to new lows.

    One concern, prompted by those 600K bid thoughts, is that we have a history of repeatedly making new all-time lows. I don't know if that pattern will hold with the new factors (DDG as CEO, NS-999 nearing testing per some APC comments from Altoona works tweets, long-overdue "significant sales", ...), but it's possibility of which we need to be aware.

    One thing we need to keep in mind is that "better support" was only relative to the low $0.10 potential support. The "better support" might be relatively weak too as things have changed since the periods I used to identify the low $0.09xx support level.

    See my post of 7/25 in the prior blog for details of my thoughts about that.

    Looking at today's stuff ...

    I recently commented on the extremely low daily short sales being normal after very large volume spikes, the continuation of that behavior being normal, and generally this low trend will start to end on the third or fourth day after the latest high-volume day. So we can look for it to start to change tomorrow [Friday] or Monday.

    Well, all that is holding true: today (Friday) daily short sales "improved" from the prior 0.07% to 16.25% today, no doubt helped out by the buy percentage improvement from 19.3% to 59.5%. Every time we break below a support price level we get a jump in buy percentage, ISTM. Anyway, normally a choppy trend up would appear. This choppy one is almost certain as the high volume today will cause another severe drop in daily short sales in the next day or two. Look for some price erosion to appear, although how much is something I've not tried to quantify. I think it will be minimal from the prices prior to the short sales percentage decline again.

    Because of the high volume and spread today there are many potential outliers over a wide price range at the high end. I'll limit myself to only the most egregious of these. The high priced candidates, totaling 2.5K shares, occurred in the first 31 minutes of trading and included buys of 2K at $0.1089 and three potential "fishing lures" of 200 for $0.1079 and 2 x 100 shares for $0.1099. The first price lower, which at least had some volume (two sells totaling 35K), was priced at $0.1060, down 3.55% from $0.1099. Using that as a high might be reasonable, but really the number of trades at a given price and the volume was relatively very thin until price got down to $0.101, down 8.1% from $0.1099.

    Today's low, high, VWAP, trade volume, and daily short sales moved -4.85%, 2.81%, -04.47%, 272.92% and 8615.25% respectively. Price spread today was 14.36% vs. 5.84%, 8.70%, 16.32%, 25.74% (23.76% if $0.1250 used as high), 20.82%, 6.22%, 2.31%, 2.69% and 6.08% on prior days.

    In the traditional TA area, I mentioned all the minuscule improvements seen in the oscillators I watch dissipated. Today RSI, MFI, Williams %R and full stochastic went into oversold territory. Even worse, that was with "big", for us, volume.

    Our close was below my short-term descending support of the potential descending trading channel I've mentioned a couple times. This was the first one, of which I was certain, since the close of $0.1049 on 7/28 below it. Another close below the line would confirm a break out to the downside.

    There is a possibility that the line is offering support and a rebound could be seen, but in the current environment I expect it would be weak and short-lived at best.

    The minor bright spots mentioned, and questioned due to the daily short sales percentage being low and volume continuing to fall, were obliterated today. The outside hope was that we were in a bottoming process, but I didn't put a lot of faith in that possibility. The possibility remains, but a bit less likely now IMO.

    The Bollinger lower limit continues falling, showing $0.0969 vs. $0.1009, $0.1053, $0.1098, $0.1155 and $0.1226 on prior days. The upper limit went to flattish from ascending yesterday, as mentioned, and has now begun to drop. It's showing $0.1598 vs. $0.1608, $0.1606, $0.1596, $0.1574 and $0.1549 on prior days. This means the mid-point to which we might aspire is now moving lower as time passes.

    The 5, 10, 25 and 50-day averages for the VWAPs again all continued down. Today the averages are $0.1049, $0.1167, $0.1318 and $0.1449, down from yesterday's $0.1086, $0.1202, $0.1339 and $0.1462. The 100-day average continued falling too. Starting with Tuesday, 7/22, we have $0.1537, $0.1541, $0.1544, $0.1546, $0.1546, $0.1542, $0.1534, $0.1525 and $0.1517 today.

    The larger trades (>= 15K) occurred on 20 of the 95 trades, 21.05%. These 710,895 shares were 66.29% of day's volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0994. 11 of the larger trades, 55.00%, were buys of 411,605 shares, 57.90% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0996. 9 of the larger trades, 45.00%, were sells of 299,290 shares, 42.10% of the larger trades volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0991.

    The other 75 trades, 78.95% of the day's trades, traded 361,432 shares, 33.71% of the days volume. The VWAP was $0.0993. 50 trades, 66.67%, were buys and accounted for 226,804 shares, 62.75% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0997. 25 trades, 33.33%, were sells and accounted for 134,628 shares, 37.25% of the smaller trade volume, and traded at a VWAP of $0.0988.

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary time-frames. Note the period ending at 9:41 includes two sells totaling 35K shares at $0.1060. Period ending 09:42 includes 2 sells, ~45K at $0.101 and 50K at $0.10 and a buy of 20K at $0.10. Period ending 12:28 includes two 50K buys at $0.0999. Period ending 14:52 includes two sells at $0.0962 of 37.8K and 50K. Period ending 15:45 includes buys of two 50K at $0.099 and a 34.2K at $0.0998. The last period is only three buys, a 10K and two 50K, all at $0.10.
    09:30-09:41: 037501 shrs, 03.50% of vol, VWAP $0.1050, 005.3% buys
    09:42-09:42: 154949 shrs, 14.45% of vol, VWAP $0.1031, 021.3% buys
    09:44-09:51: 082605 shrs, 07.70% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 100.0% buys
    09:54-10:11: 055822 shrs, 05.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1099, 001.1% buys
    10:18-12:28: 203650 shrs, 18.99% of vol, VWAP $0.0999, 076.4% buys
    12:30-14:52: 243500 shrs, 22.71% of vol, VWAP $0.0963, 030.9% buys
    15:08-15:45: 223300 shrs, 20.82% of vol, VWAP $0.0993, 097.8% buys
    15:53-15:57: 071000 shrs, 06.62% of vol, VWAP $0.1000, 100.0% buys

    Here's a trading breakdown by arbitrary price range. Note the first range includes three sells totaling 98.8K at $0.0962. The $0.1010 ending range includes 2 x 50K buys at $0.0990, a 34.2K buy at $0.0998, 2 x 50K buys at $0.0999, buys of 40K and 50K at $0.10 with a sell of 5K at that price, and ~50K at $0.1010.
    $0.0961-$0.0981: 271750 shrs, 25.34% of vol, VWAP $0.0968, 018.6% buys
    $0.0990-$0.1010: 741976 shrs, 69.19% of vol, VWAP $0.0998, 078.9% buys
    $0.1030-$0.1031: 012900 shrs, 01.20% of vol, VWAP $0.1031, 000.0% buys
    $0.1050-$0.1079: 043501 shrs, 04.06% of vol, VWAP $0.1058, 000.5% buys
    $0.1089-$0.1099: 002200 shrs, 00.21% of vol, VWAP $0.1090, 100.0% buys

    Some day-to-day VWAP changes, with the end date shown and the percentage change from the prior day. Buy percentage is the last value on each line.
    07/17 $0.1353 -10.50% 24.9%
    07/18 $0.1344 -00.60% 64.9%
    07/21 $0.1318 -01.94% 34.4%
    07/22 $0.1315 -00.26% 50.6%
    07/23 $0.1317 +00.16% 62.0%
    07/24 $0.1297 -01.48% 49.1%
    07/25 $0.1178 -09.19% 23.8%
    07/28 $0.1113 -05.51% 30.0%
    07/29 $0.1051 -05.60% 45.7%
    07/30 $0.1047 -00.42% 12.2%
    07/31 $0.1040 -00.64% 19.3%
    08/01 $0.0994 -04.47% 59.5%

    Regarding my newer inflection point calculations, volume moved from falling back to a more normal, for us, levels to another "big" day. Consistent with short-term volatility, we have a second consecutive day of all periods improved. As before, until a trend becomes more stable I'm not giving these readings any real weight.
    _5-day_ 10-day_ _25-day_ _50-day_ _100-day_ _200-day_
    -015.30 -0086.32 -0344.92 -0641.01 -02021.59 -06782.83
    -054.16 -0081.33 -0378.70 -0704.36 -02177.30 -07014.61
    -052.40 -0075.51 -0357.46 -0644.63 -02037.68 -06679.46
    -018.40 -0053.47 -0308.37 -0554.64 -01849.94 -06254.12
    -011.84 -0048.89 -0313.49 -0542.03 -01873.47 -06304.63
    -108.47 -0135.29 -0468.19 -0737.60 -02900.85 -08684.19
    -212.09 -0286.96 -0610.67 -0950.02 -03358.38 -09626.50
    -134.82 -0171.43 -0372.29 -0494.57 -01149.54 -04728.89
    -258.75 -0295.48 -0561.16 -0900.25 -03010.39 -09172.28
    -251.21 -0275.95 -0515.38 -0824.90 -02406.96 -08009.76
    -172.47 -0273.65 -0498.46 -0804.62 -02358.17 -07891.15

    "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" and inflection point changes here are in the latest daily post above.

    Disclosure: The author is long AXPW.

    Additional disclosure: I am very experimental and sometimes do my TA in non-traditional fashions. Keep this in mind when considering anything I post and be sure and consult other sources and do your due diligence. I'm barely responsible for myself and certainly not responsible for anyone else or their actions. :-)

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Comments (7)
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  • nym
    , contributor
    Comments (353) | Send Message
     
    Where did everybody go?

     

    Check for new SEC filing.
    4 Aug, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Nym: Wrong blog - this one is low volume. I think you wanted the APC's.

     

    HardToLove
    4 Aug, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • nym
    , contributor
    Comments (353) | Send Message
     
    I am only vaguely aware of what APC is.

     

    Only you could have created this 'low volume' blog. To what end?

     

    A rational explanation is that you had second thoughts about creating it, but I happened to catch it before you changed the link back.
    4 Aug, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This blog has been running, a new one each month, for going on three years. Never been high volume and has never had just general discussion of AXPW.

     

    Here's the place were most of that general discussion goes on: 355th edition.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    4 Aug, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4135) | Send Message
     
    Lot of info there for 8/28 trading, HTL. The 800k offer @ $.0911 ($72,880 excluding commissions) more than a little interesting. May have been someone intending to move the market as you suggest. Then again, it might have been someone like myself who concluded share price has dropped to a point where buying now may be a better play than waiting for the offering.
    30 Aug, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » D-Inv: "it might have been someone like myself who concluded share price has dropped to a point where buying now may be a better play than waiting for the offering".

     

    I consider that a possibility as well. There's just too many things in congruence though to have any confidence one way or the other.

     

    What swayed me is John's "sweeping the street" assertion, the 190K oddity the prior day, the many opportunities in the *recent* past to buy at better prices, with the same sort of "crossing bid", that weren't taken, ...

     

    On the less tangible side I *think* most folks interested in a large position are probably already there, the consistently high sell percentages *suggest* that some are exiting rather than buying for now, and the feeling that many are in "wait and see" mode.

     

    Then my TFH kicks in with it's view that investment bankers have the resources to, and are adept at, moving the market with just such behavior. If they are to get a strong underwritten deal done they must be able to show "robustness" in the price and volume. For a relative pittance, in their terms, they can easily move the market any direction they choose. Add in the change in behavior from CDEL, which generally has behaved more like the other MMs, and it gets hard not to be suspicious. Why now for CDEL to apparently be handling someone that behaves differently? It could be someone loading up prior to news that will dump when a pop is seen. It could be Maxim doing what I suspect. It could be ...

     

    One thing not mentioned was I had been seeing some "lures" that were to entice selling recently. 500 shares several times daily over several days that hit the bid rather than the usual hit the offer. This may have biased me since it prompted the question of who wants and why they want people to sell. Add in the 190K and now the 800K and I suspect that John's "sweeping the street" is accurate. Another form, more subtle I guess, of manipulation to accomplish goals of which we aren't aware.

     

    Anyway, I will never know. It's one of the reasons I try to be so detailed - so other folks can see as much as I do, plus their own observations, and reach their own conclusions. It's also one of the reasons I try to mention (sometimes emphasize) that my TFH is in play.

     

    N.B. One of our Axionistas with a very large position occasionally communicates his actions to me. I had suspected he might be the 190K and/or the 800K. It just so happened that he PM'd me with a trade he entered in the last couple days and he wasn't either of these. There are others, of course, who don't inform me (and I prefer that because it avoids introducing even more bias into my attempts) that could be the 190K or 800K orders.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    31 Aug, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (17877) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » New blog for September.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    HardToLove
    3 Sep, 11:24 AM Reply Like
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