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H. T. Love
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Spent over 30 years in computer systems work, many different functions. Owned my own business for awhile. Got tired of it (managing employees is not my baliwick) and stopped doing it professionally. Did other things, off and on, for some more years and finally bumped into this investing/trading... More
  • NVAX: Interesting charts - UNDER CONSTRUCTION BUT NOT A LOT TO ADD 11 comments
    Dec 18, 2009 7:27 AM | about stocks: NVAX
    Having been flustered by the action of NVAX price constantly contradicting the charts, I decided to dig. Unfortunately data is always 2 - 3 weeks behind. But you should see some answers in these two charts. I don't know that I'll have anything to add here later, other than an update to the short interest chart when data is available.

    If the price action has been scaring you out of this potential winner, hang tough.

    I said some time back that the shorts were hammering this like they hammered the banks, but at times I didn't see the action, then I did, then ...

    I think these charts say they were hammering.

    DON'T SELL TO THE SHORTS AT A BIG LOSS - GOOD NEWS WILL COME!

    UPDATE 1/6/2006: Added chart with Closing Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) for each two week period per a request from User 283977.

    This is the first blush attempt. Constructive suggestions that don't impose too great a workload on me are welcome.

    Updated chart from 1/6/2010 below.

    (Click to Enlarge)

    Corrected NVAX Fails, Short Interest, Closing VWAP 12/15/2008 - 12/15/2009 Created 1/6/2010


    Original chart from 12/17/2009 below.

    (Click to Enlarge)
    NVAX Shoort Interest and Fails-to-deliver as of 11/30/09

    And just for comparison, here's a 1 year price chart. (Click to enlarge)

    NVAX 1 Year Prices 12/17/2009



    Disclosure: Long NVAX
    Stocks: NVAX
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Comments (11)
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  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the charts, HTL. It reinforces what I have been thinking. I will have to see if the current pricing hits a plateau or not. I am thinking it WILL, briefly, somewhere north of $2, probably about $2.30.

     

    I continue to watch, and wait.
    18 Dec 2009, 08:12 AM Reply Like
  • yellowhoard
    , contributor
    Comments (1508) | Send Message
     
    I'd like to see this one go sideways for a while before I start a position.
    18 Dec 2009, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • FocalPoint Analytics
    , contributor
    Comments (6152) | Send Message
     
    Good data HT.... can you develop a chart that has number of shorts on say the X axis and the NVAX price on the Y axis? That would let us see both sets of data at the same time resolution, and to clearly show the nature of the association between number of shorts on NVAX price. I am accumulating NVAX.

     

    I am impresed with your use of the SA chart tool. I found it to be very difficult to use.
    18 Dec 2009, 12:18 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (10730) | Send Message
     
    HTL: Great chart. Where did you get hold of the short interest chart for NVAX?
    18 Dec 2009, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Bern, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (5400) | Send Message
     
    YH - I think you're on the right track with this one. Lots of potential over the longer haul, but the short-term view looks a bit too volatile for me. I like volatile, but only when it is in the other direction.
    18 Dec 2009, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • tripleblack
    , contributor
    Comments (13569) | Send Message
     
    Having made a modest profit selling NVAX after buying it in the lower 3's, the idea of doing the same thing buying in the lower 2's has a certain appeal. It is sitting just above the Buy@ goal I had estimated for the correction I believe is pending, so I feel no particular yen to accumulate right now, but I am definitely tracking it.
    18 Dec 2009, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » On Dec 18 12:18 PM User 283977 wrote:

     

    > Good data HT.... can you develop a chart that has number of shorts
    > on say the X axis and the NVAX price on the Y axis? That would let
    > us see both sets of data at the same time resolution, and to clearly
    > show the nature of the association between number of shorts on NVAX
    > price. I am accumulating NVAX.

     

    I considered that, but was in a hurry. I had already taken a snapshot for the 1 year price chart and then accumulated the data for the delivery failures and short interest. I think I can actually put them together using GIMP on my Linux platform and want to give it a try and see how well it works out. It depends on if the top layer transparency and the bottom layer background leave things clearly visible and don't give too much clutter.

     

    On difficulty with putting both in the spread sheets is time-frames. Short/fails are in two week intervals and prices, of course, are a range - O/C/H/L and daily or weekly or ...

     

    The source of the fail/short, if I recall, has some price but we don't know if it's VWAP or what.

     

    I will do some more looking and thinking, but I did want to get these up today.

     

    By the way, "click to enlarge" and you not that although they are not perfectly aligned, the time-frames are close enough for what I was trying to accomplish - see the rise in prices start up followed right on its heels by short interest.

     

    HardToLove
    >
    > I am impresed with your use of the SA chart tool. I found it to
    > be very difficult to use.
    18 Dec 2009, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I made it in a spreadsheet from data available @

     

    www.nasdaqtrader.com/T...

     

    Be aware that like the SEC failure data, it runs late and is "batched" up - no daily/weekly ...

     

    HardToLove

     

    On Dec 18 12:25 PM Mayascribe wrote:

     

    > HTL: Great chart. Where did you get hold of the short interest chart
    > for NVAX?
    18 Dec 2009, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I've made some $ playing the swings. Since long-term, to me, looks so uncertain on so many things, I'm just scraping the table, around my core holdings, for returns while I wait for Act 3 to appear and play out.

     

    Today I've got a trailing buy stop in, that if it does it's normal rise I should make a few hundred selling later in the day. If it gets too late and the buy hasn't triggered, I'll cancel it and probably wait for another day or I'll manually work it.

     

    HardToLove

     

    On Dec 18 12:28 PM Mark Bern wrote:

     

    > YH - I think you're on the right track with this one. Lots of potential
    > over the longer haul, but the short-term view looks a bit too volatile
    > for me. I like volatile, but only when it is in the other direction.
    18 Dec 2009, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • optionsgirl
    , contributor
    Comments (5041) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for updating the chart, HTL. I'm in it for the long haul, but the shorts got us by the short hairs...
    6 Jan 2010, 07:09 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18504) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I'm in too.

     

    They have us right now, yes. But if we guessed right about the potential and timing, it will be them feeling the pain! =>:-O

     

    HardToLove
    6 Jan 2010, 07:31 PM Reply Like
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