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H. T. Love
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Spent over 30 years in computer systems work, many different functions. Owned my own business for awhile. Got tired of it (managing employees is not my baliwick) and stopped doing it professionally. Did other things, off and on, for some more years and finally bumped into this investing/trading... More
  • AXPW: Intra-Day Trade Charting 7/7/2012 - 9/5/2012 45 comments
    Sep 9, 2012 12:05 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    This is the second installment off the original "AXPW: Some Intra-Day Trade Charting" instablogs I've started doing on Seeking Alpha. The other one grew, as I added daily commentary and FINRA data, to the point I was afraid the load time might become an irritant for folks that have less internet bandwidth or older computing equipment. So I decided to start a new one.

    I've been manually collecting this data while volume was low and it was therefore reasonable to do so. I'll stop when it gets too large unless I can craft a mechanized capture of most of the stuff.

    I'll update this daily as long as I can for anybody that might find it useful. The chart will stay here and the text updates expressing my most recent thoughts will follow after the chart.

    I wanted to get some links to comments regarding the "flippers", who else might be dumping shares, etc., here to remind me to broaden my scope of consideration when trying to interpret what my daily squiggles might be suggesting. So here's the links to the Axion Power Concentrator 118 comments with a summary line of what each comment considers.

    My comment iterating my belief that we might be nearing the end of the flippers.

    JP thinks we might be out of "flippers" and most selling is coming from Blackrock now.

    JP corrects his estimate of Blackrock sales, prodded by a comment from JAKurtz.

    JP comments that we need to have perspective when worrying about "big sellers".

    Continuing some of the topics in the above links, and adding in my focus on the mechanical aspects, I thought might be useful to include some reminders about the Mega-C potential impact. These mention "who's selling" theories, "who's buying" theories and discuss volume and some possible (hoped for?) outcomes.

    Mayascribe linked an article about issues at Blackrock and surmised it might be the reason they are selling. JP replies, emphasizing that we believe they are selling.

    MrInvestor notes some volume on the bid 7/3/2012 which starts the thread in which JP thinks we might have confirmation that Blackrock may be selling. The thread is not tightly focused, but seems to carry some useful discussion, including a possibility that the heavy selling might be done in approximately month-and-a-half. Seems to run through MrInvestors comment beginning with metro--A bit more shares at the various Level II bids. About 100k at 33 cents has been there a couple weeks ...

    A thread noting high-volume early on 7/6/12 begins a discussion of some potential larger sellers that morphs into buyers. There's a bit of wandering but it seems to end around my comment beginning with JP: "Stable prices, particularly prices that have been flat for a few weeks, breed confidence that the worst is over".

    JP notes that the placement agents for the February share issue are precluded from selling their 800K+ shares until the end of July.

    Subsequently, it appeared that the bankruptcy trustee for the Mega-C shares finally began to dump shares into the market, in a rather wanton fashion I might add. John Petersen's comments related to this occur scattered throughout the Axion Power Concentrators. Here's some links to them or threads in which they appear, which I'll be expanding as time permits (it takes some time to winnow the germane ones from the many comments of all of us).

    The first, and most significant in terms of alerting us to the Mega-C shares, is Axion Power Concentrator 112: June 10, 2012: Bottom Feeders Alert. The header of the article contains JP's discovery that the shares will be hitting the market. Almost all the comments, beginning with the first and going through FPA's The .35 offering people being underwater could be significant are related to this issue. After many comments on other topics, a new thread picks it up again with Mr Investor's comment containing looks like the BK Trustee is selling away. The thread ends with Iindelco's comment beginning with jakurtz, True but volatility brings opportunity and many know this.

    Mathieu Malecot's comment AXPW's future will hinge on the capital raise and Iindelco's immediately following reply are really more about the need for positive news on business developments, but dies include the opinion by Iindelco that The 2 million share sale is not that big a deal.

    In a follow-on discussion to a Quercus Form-4 filing JP noted, we get a potential window for Quercus to be exhausted EOY 2012 when the thread ends with JP's The proxy statement for this year's meeting said they held 1,672,729...

    Following my daily post for 6/14 wherein I suggested we might have seen the bottom, (and, patting myself on the back, it's held up so far! 7/13 :) a discussion of the trading activity ensued. The significant takeaway ends with Jps comment beginning I'm less concerned with Quercus' behavior than I am the bankruptcy trustee.

    Jpau's comment that we were expecting 2M shares starts a thread that leads ends with JP's comment starting with The court order required an inter-broker transfer of the shares.

    Tim Enright starts a thread wondering why we assume the trustee will be selling the Mega-C shares right away. There's good discussion that runs through Tripleblack's comment beginning with regardless of the ethics involved, it would be prudent for us to set aside a little dry powder ...

    MrInvestor notes shares being dumped and wonders if it's the Mega-C bankruptcy shares. The pertinent parts seem to end with Bazooooka's comment beginning Makes sense, however I feel there might be a few million Axionista shares we need to eat through too.

    Beginning of a thread positing that Mega-C may have begun selling on 7/10 and containing quite a bit of follow-on discussion. The pertinent comments end with John's comment beginning with One of my favorite statistics is TTM volume, which has been driven by sell side bullies for the last couple years.

    A thread about intra-day volume and JP suggests Night Capital might the the market-maker.

    On 7/17 John updates his current overhang estimates and suggests that the BR and Mega-C sellers might be exhausted around mid-August. The thread ends with JohnM121's comment beginning 9.2 - 2.7 = 6.5 million shares. At .315, that is a tad above $2 million to clean them all. Later AmishElvis suggests that at current share price one of the smaller brokerage houses good clean out the overhang with ~$5MM and John replies that professionals are bottom-feeders too. Mr. Investor suggests that it might take only $1MM, ending the thread.

    Mayscribe posts a comment noting the low price is making him hungry again and JP replies that the fire sale might end tomorrow in a comment beggining Total volume since the tenth currently stands at 3,419,700.

    It should be noted that shortly after the awareness of the Mega-C shares being likely to hit the market, several investors that believe in open disclosure were gracious enough to let us know they were exiting. I laud them for that and hope that they did not suffer much loss and will find a good re-entry point in the future.

    There's an inference that can be drawn from that: IMO it's highly likely that some others also exited their position and did not disclose this fact, which of course is perfectly acceptable and legitimate. I hope the same for those folks.

    The important thing for me, related to this, is when did Mega-C shares hit, so that we can estimate when they might be exhausted. Based on a combined volume and price action, it appears to be 7/10. But there was a short sales percentage spike on 7/6 - could this have been the start? It's possible because we also had a start of volume increase that day, although price held up, even increasing a small amount. I bet more on 7/10 because of the combination of price and volume, supported by the buy:sell and average trade size behavior.

    In the below chart note that the volume is inverted to enhance readability! Be aware when you view it!

    (click to enlarge)AXPW Intra-day Statistics Chart 20120905

    In the charts above I had to:
    - estimate 3/27 buy:sell ratio because I couldn't get ADVFN screen-shots that day,
    -
    omit 3/28 data due to garbage from the ADVFN feed.

    9/5/2012: Following partially copied to the concentrator.
    # Trds: 38, MinTrSz: 113, MaxTrSz: 40000, Vol 234720, AvTrSz: 6177
    Min. Pr: 0.3150, Max Pr: 0.3250, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3189
    # Buys, Shares: 19 64807, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3212
    # Sells, Shares: 17 129800, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3174
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 40113, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3200
    Buy:Sell 1:2.00 (27.6% "buys"), DlyShts 36857 (15.7%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 28.40%

    First a note about "buys" today. Note the unusual "unknown" volume, which usually is zero. 40K of that was one trade of $0.32 at 10:30 with bid/ask at $0.316/$0.324. Prior to that it could have been a "buy" or a "sell" (only three trades at that price). After that trade it would have been a "buy" in every case, 10 trades. Trying to get a proper sense of the sentiment associated with that particular trade, I go with the majority and think it was truly a "buy". This would put the buy percentage at 44.7%, much more in line with what we've seen recently (percentages of 70.4, 42.2, 38.7, 64.6, 29.9, 59.6, 90.8).

    We continue to see intra-day indications of positive sentiment. After the early action, before 12:00, asks tended to the weaker side dropping from an early $0.325 to as low as 32. Bids started at $0.32 and moved lower to $0.316. After that with asks at $0.32 at 12:13, bidders began doing a little shoving, moving to $0.3162 ... getting to as high as $0.32 but mostly $0.3172 in the last hour-and-a-half before weakening again to $0.3155 in the last 17 minutes. This is the third(?) time recently that we've seen a little jostling as people try to get to the window and place their bets on the winning entry.

    Other than that, volume remains low and daily short sales remain low and seem to be trending down, although they can't go too low without becoming completely "stupid low" again. Combining that with the continued price stability and now-severe compression (1 penny spread!), trade sizes down in the retail range (NYSEMKT:IMO) and the "buys" percentage near-term averages working towards convergence with the long-term averages, it looks like we are in a short-term consolidation pattern again. Been there a few days, I think, but didn't want to rush to judgment.

    As I look at everything, especially the low volume, reducing daily short sales and price compression, I don't expect us to get far into medium-term consolidation, if at all. My best guess is that the profit-taking and/or risk-reduction by (what I guess are) retail participants I thought might be going on is still in progress, but near an end. With the 10-day price average now above the 25-day and near crossing the 50-day average, I expect some movement soon. The last few days' VWAP trend seems to suggest this: $0.3155, $0.3190, $0.3197, and $0.3189, and early in the day it was $0.321 for the first hour and 10 minutes (82.6K shares traded).

    The following was omitted from the daily concentrator posting.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07% 28.40%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg: 88.23%, min: 28.40%, max: 148.07%

    0905 Vol 0234720, Sht 0036857 15.70% LHC 0.3150 0.3250 0.3150 b:s 1:2.00
    0904 Vol 0100094, Sht 0014955 14.94% LHC 0.3151 0.3240 0.3200 b:s 3.80:1[36]
    0831 Vol 0347000, Sht 0148300 42.74% LHC 0.3120 0.3250 0.3200 b:s 1.47:1[35]
    0830 Vol 0158350, Sht 0029517 11.97% LHC 0.3110 0.3297 0.3155 b:s 1:2.34[34]
    0829 Vol 0171061, Sht 0065081 34.04% LHC 0.3152 0.3300 0.3200 b:s 1.83:1[33]
    0828 Vol 0244930, Sht 0091679 33.88% LHC 0.3275 0.3349 0.3300 b:s 1:1.58
    0827 Vol 0379015, Sht 0076050 20.07% LHC 0.3260 0.3400 0.3300 b:s 1:1.37
    0824 Vol 0354522, Sht 0194727 54.93% LHC 0.3256 0.3400 0.3299 b:s 1.85:1
    0823 Vol 0925685, Sht 0454735 46.96% LHC 0.3012 0.3380 0.3380 b:s 1.85:1[32]
    0822 Vol 0525637, Sht 0339699 64.63% LHC 0.3000 0.3050 0.3049 b:s 12.9:1
    0821 Vol 0304212, Sht 0156380 51.40% LHC 0.2900 0.3050 0.3049 b:s 2.03:1
    0820 Vol 0427246, Sht 0217826 50.98% LHC 0.3000 0.3050 0.3000 b:s 1.53:1
    0817 Vol 9307260, Sht 5829840 62.64% LHC 0.2800 0.3025 0.3000 b:s 5.32:1[31]
    0816 Vol 1171040, Sht 0207630 17.73% LHC 0.2961 0.3100 0.3000 b:s 1.93:1[30]
    0815 Vol 0764351, Sht 0155100 20.29% LHC 0.2860 0.3050 0.2996 b:s 2.53:1
    0814 Vol 0444854, Sht 0011257 02.53% LHC 0.2900 0.3070 0.3000 b:s 1:4.82
    0813 Vol 0184415, Sht 0039200 21.26% LHC 0.3000 0.3085 0.3069 b:s 1:5.48
    0810 Vol 0353845, Sht 0082200 23.23% LHC 0.3024 0.3100 0.3050 b:s 1:2.18
    0809 Vol 0099470, Sht 0035000 35.19% LHC 0.3023 0.3100 0.3099 b:s 2.41:1
    0808 Vol 0235510, Sht 0005100 02.17% LHC 0.3010 0.3199 0.3099 b:s 2.41:1
    0807 Vol 0115193, Sht 0010981 09.53% LHC 0.3100 0.3199 0.3103 b:s 2.41:1
    0806 Vol 0164530, Sht 0015600 09.48% LHC 0.3010 0.3200 0.3199 b:s 1.11:1[29]
    0803 Vol 0256566, Sht 0000000 00.00% LHC 0.3000 0.3200 0.3013 b:s 1:3.64
    0802 Vol 0471500, Sht 0133000 28.21% LHC 0.3000 0.3300 0.3025 b:s 1:1.51
    0801 Vol 0180429, Sht 0003900 02.16% LHC 0.3220 0.3398 0.3300 b:s 1:10.14
    0731 Vol 0119399, Sht 0026781 22.43% LHC 0.3330 0.3399 0.3394 b:s 1:1.13
    0730 Vol 0196534, Sht 0086700 44.11% LHC 0.3221 0.3400 0.3390 b:s 2.85:1
    0727 Vol 0166660, Sht 0095130 57.08% LHC 0.3350 0.3450 0.3351 b:s 6.04:1[28]
    0726 Vol 0468100, Sht 0020500 04.38% LHC 0.3300 0.3450 0.3400 b:s 1:1.27[27]
    0725 Vol 0279175, Sht 0023812 08.53% LHC 0.3300 0.3500 0.3400 b:s 1:1.05[26]
    0724 Vol 0267464, Sht 0097464 36.44% LHC 0.3190 0.3498 0.3290 b:s 2.32:1[25]
    0723 Vol 0425158, Sht 0139089 32.71% LHC 0.3100 0.3445 0.3445 b:s 2.63:1
    0720 Vol 0494205, Sht 0250209 50.63% LHC 0.3000 0.3300 0.3250 b:s 2.63:1[24]
    0719 Vol 0742608, Sht 0103200 13.90% LHC 0.2650 0.3150 0.2950 b:s 1:2.92
    7/18 Vol 0155930, Sht 0094130 60.37% LHC 0.3000 0.3100 0.3030 b:s 1.95:1[23]
    0717 Vol 0699896, Sht 0193437 27.64% LHC 0.2955 0.3200 0.3000 b:s 1:1.12[22]
    0716 Vol 0454228, Sht 0329088 72.45% LHC 0.3100 0.3220 0.3150 b:s 4.07:1
    0713 Vol 0296133, Sht 0044000 14.86% LHC 0.3125 0.3260 0.3220 b:s 2.08:1
    0712 Vol 0084702, Sht 0035802 42.27% LHC 0.3220 0.3420 0.3250 b:s 2.32:1[21]
    0711 Vol 0613489, Sht 0083397 13.59% LHC 0.3220 0.3444 0.3270 b:s 1:2.26
    0710 Vol 1256989, Sht 0266270 21.18% LHC 0.3220 0.3500 0.3271 b:s 1:2.88
    0709 Vol 0273667, Sht 0084923 31.03% LHC 0.3440 0.3599 0.3450 b:s 1.63:1[20]
    0706 Vol 0357574, Sht 0216160 60.45% LHC 0.3406 0.3500 0.3450 b:s 6.75:1[19]
    0705 Vol 0103800, Sht 0008200 07.44% LHC 0.3300 0.3500 0.3500 b:s 1.64:1[18]
    0629 Vol 0132580, Sht 0014400 10.86% LHC 0.3300 0.3439 0.3439 b:s 1:1.17[17]
    0628 Vol 0178419, Sht 0012875 07.22% LHC 0.3303 0.3498 0.3350 b:s 1.55:1
    0627 Vol 0038050, Sht 0001000 02.63% LHC 0.3370 0.3500 0.3450 b:s 1:1.10[16]
    0626 Vol 0146951, Sht 0068051 46.31% LHC 0.3391 0.3500 0.3450 b:s 6.62:1[15]
    0625 Vol 0110396, Sht 0043600 39.49% LHC 0.3350 0.3500 0.3350 b:s 1.67:1[14]
    0622 Vol 0307804, Sht 0130667 42.45% LHC 0.3349 0.3500 0.3500 b:s 4.61:1
    0621 Vol 0105850, Sht 0032150 30.37% LHC 0.3321 0.3500 0.3479 b:s 51.93:1
    0620 Vol 0096235, Sht 0016685 17.34% LHC 0.3400 0.3500 0.3499 b:s 5.16:1[13]
    0619 Vol 0304080, Sht 0159006 52.29% LHC 0.3300 0.3500 0.3495 b:s 3.16:1
    0618 Vol 0079382, Sht 0005000 06.30% LHC 0.3052 0.3449 0.3311 b:s 2.10:1
    0615 Vol 0210011, Sht 0073800 35.14% LHC 0.3010 0.3400 0.3400 b:s 10.76:1
    0614 Vol 0434858, Sht 0050925 11.71% LHC 0.3000 0.3090 0.3090 b:s 1:3.96
    0613 Vol 0096728, Sht 0019048 19.69% LHC 0.3010 0.3100 0.3060 b:s 1.11:1
    0612 Vol 0588233, Sht 0136133 23.14% LHC 0.3052 0.3250 0.3070 b:s 1:2.60
    0611 Vol 0198576, Sht 0053800 27.09% LHC 0.3150 0.3345 0.3250 b:s 1:1.43
    0608 Vol 0131165, Sht 0006000 04.57% LHC 0.3240 0.3500 0.3479 b:s 1:1.24
    0607 Vol 0013803, Sht 0001900 13.77% LHC 0.3421 0.3500 0.3490 b:s 3.18:1
    0606 Vol 0204575, Sht 0133750 65.38% LHC 0.3420 0.3500 0.3500 b:s 2.28:1
    0605 Vol 0157000, Sht 0073858 47.04% LHC 0.3401 0.3500 0.3500 b:s 6.85:1
    0604 Vol 0152292, Sht 0013200 08.67% LHC 0.3220 0.3500 0.3380 b:s 1:4.53
    0601 Vol 0062000, Sht 0008000 12.90% LHC 0.3320 0.3409 0.3409 b:s 1.57:1
    0531 Vol 0158067, Sht 0030319 19.18% LHC 0.3310 0.3500 0.3450 b:s 1:3.28
    0530 Vol 0389900, Sht 0157100 40.29% LHC 0.3400 0.3650 0.3500 b:s 1.59:1
    0529 Vol 0118006, Sht 0035506 30.09% LHC 0.3400 0.3800 0.3640 b:s 12.15:1
    0525 Vol 0140057, Sht 0040600 28.99% LHC 0.3480 0.3555 0.3480 b:s 1.96:1
    0524 Vol 0220877, Sht 0073291 33.18% LHC 0.3300 0.3598 0.3594 b:s 1:1.50
    0523 Vol 0482294, Sht 0180210 37.37% LHC 0.3400 0.3698 0.3501 b:s 1.02:1
    0522 Vol 0133015, Sht 0032150 24.17% LHC 0.3450 0.3650 0.3501 b:s 2.46:1[12]
    0521 Vol 0253600, Sht 0085000 33.52% LHC 0.3500 0.3754 0.3500 b:s 2.66:1
    0518 Vol 0354724, Sht 0065695 18.52% LHC 0.3310 0.3600 0.3500 b:s 1:1.44
    0517 Vol 0525836, Sht 0070200 13.35% LHC 0.3400 0.3799 0.3500 b:s 1:5.07
    0516 Vol 0571819, Sht 0238018 41.62% LHC 0.3601 0.4100 0.3799 b:s 1:1.12[11]
    0515 Vol 0503859, Sht 0116091 23.04% LHC 0.3700 0.4200 0.3801 b:s 1:2.64
    0514 Vol 0278334, Sht 0078500 28.20% LHC 0.4100 0.4280 0.4200 b:s 1.31:1
    0511 Vol 0236187, Sht 0020200 08.55% LHC 0.4106 0.4280 0.4200 b:s 1:1.27
    0510 Vol 0117575, Sht 0000000 00.00% LHC 0.4100 0.4200 0.4150 b:s 2.43:1
    0509 Vol 0116441, Sht 0004141 03.56% LHC 0.4100 0.4200 0.4150 b:s 1:2.76
    0508 Vol 0079083, Sht 0012524 15.84% LHC 0.4120 0.4280 0.4121 b:s 3.46:1
    0507 Vol 0080830, Sht 0009734 12.04% LHC 0.4110 0.4289 0.4200 b:s 1:4.25
    0504 Vol 0190417, Sht 0008500 04.46% LHC 0.4241 0.4400 0.4241 b:s 2.07:1
    0503 Vol 0181530, Sht 0028500 15.70% LHC 0.4300 0.4400 0.4350 b:s 1:1.04
    0502 Vol 0143270, Sht 0016000 11.17% LHC 0.4300 0.4549 0.4410 b:s 1:1.39
    0501 Vol 0222824, Sht 0008132 03.65% LHC 0.4300 0.4500 0.4301 b:s 1.23:1
    0430 Vol 0542734, Sht 0048465 08.93% LHC 0.4300 0.4700 0.4399 b:s 1:1.66
    0427 Vol 0297980, Sht 0047025 15.78% LHC 0.4200 0.4600 0.4110 b:s 2.11:1
    0426 Vol 2336112, Sht 0449700 19.25% LHC 0.4000 0.4610 0.4180 b:s 1:1.60
    0425 Vol 0353994, Sht 0063842 18.03% LHC 0.4210 0.4498 0.4271 b:s 1:1.82[10]
    0424 Vol 0193103, Sht 0012390 06.42% LHC 0.4200 0.4300 0.4300 b:s 1.38:1[9]
    0423 Vol 0296220, Sht 0075500 25.49% LHC 0.4180 0.4300 0.4200 b:s 1.13:1
    0420 Vol 0060724, Sht 0000000 00.00% LHC 0.4202 0.4300 0.4260 b:s 1.64:1[8]
    0419 Vol 0113650, Sht 0021940 19.30% LHC 0.4160 0.4445 0.4202 b:s 1:1.60[7]
    0418 Vol 0136851, Sht 0010000 07.31% LHC 0.4200 0.4300 0.4250 b:s 1:2.38
    0417 Vol 0111155, Sht 0000814 00.73% LHC 0.4200 0.4349 0.4202 b:s 1:1.26[6]
    0416 Vol 0282254, Sht 0071350 25.28% LHC 0.4210 0.4450 0.4211 b:s 1:2.07[5]
    0413 Vol 0211898, Sht 0055500 26.19% LHC 0.4300 0.4600 0.4359 b:s 1:1.18
    0412 Vol 0228191, Sht 0068800 30.15% LHC 0.4250 0.4450 0.4400 b:s 1:1.01
    0411 Vol 0128110, Sht 0012900 10.07% LHC 0.4151 0.4440 0.4300 b:s 1.33:1
    0410 Vol 0279098, Sht 0046200 16.55% LHC 0.4100 0.4449 0.4150 b:s 1:12.4[4]
    0409 Vol 0101030, Sht 0023236 23.00% LHC 0.4252 0.4399 0.4349 b:s 1.28:1[3]
    0405 Vol 0122244, Sht 0008000 06.54% LHC 0.4100 0.4350 0.4251 b:s 1.30:1
    0404 Vol 0478031, Sht 0044399 09.29% LHC 0.4170 0.4549 0.4300 b:s 1.15:1
    0403 Vol 0717579, Sht 0114178 15.91% LHC 0.4050 0.4549 0.4500 b:s 1.30:1[2]
    0402 Vol 0512831, Sht 0187175 36.50% LHC 0.3910 0.4180 0.4180 b:s 1.98:1[1]
    0330 Vol 0112741, Sht 0011662 10.34% LHC 0.4001 0.4100 0.4021 b:s 1:1.26
    0329 Vol 0341458, Sht 0174100 50.99% LHC 0.3930 0.4100 0.4000 b:s 1:2.56
    0328 Vol 0158771, Sht 0022436 14.13% LHC 0.3900 0.4028 0.3930 b:s 20.5:1
    0327 Vol 0184578, Sht 0049631 26.89% LHC 0.3916 0.4050 0.3920 b:s UNKNOWN
    0326 Vol 0190535, Sht 0039250 20.60% LHC 0.3801 0.4100 0.4050 b:s 1.75:1
    0323 Vol 0208760, Sht 0082800 39.66% LHC 0.3760 0.3899 0.3801 b:s 1:1.88
    0322 Vol 0192407, Sht 0013794 07.17% LHC 0.3820 0.4100 0.3820 b:s 1:3.31
    0321 Vol 0245476, Sht 0057576 23.45% LHC 0.3810 0.4170 0.3999 b:s 1:1.78
    0320 Vol 0254186, Sht 0029586 11.64% LHC 0.3700 0.3950 0.3900 b:s 1:1.50

    [1] AH 20K sell @ $0.405 would make b:s 1.77:1
    [2] AH 9,449 sell @ $0.435 would make b:s 1.26:1
    [3] AH 10K sell @ $0.4R29 would make b:s 1.28:1
    [4] AH 28K sell @ $0.418 would make b:s 1:13.8
    [5] AH 13.2K sell @ $0.42 would make b:s 1:2.21
    [6] AH 11K sell @ $0.424 would make b:s 1:1.48
    [7] AH 11K sell @ $0.427 would make b:s 1:1.75
    [8] AH 6K buy @ $0.426 would make b:s 1:1.93
    [9] AH 19K sell @ $0.427 would make b:s 1.12:1
    [10] High was one 100-share trade at open (MM?). "Real" high was $0.44
    [11] Including 45K in pre-market trades in both total and short sales gives 616,819 and 283,018 respectively. This would put the short sales percentage at ~45.9%.
    [12] AH "sells" of 11K @ $0.35 don't appear in the FINRA numbers. Adding that to shorts, because they were "sells", gives 43,150 and 30%.
    [13] 10K pre-market trades not included. Including those moves volume to 106,235 and short percentage to 15.7%.
    [14] Including AH 11K sell @ $0.335 as short would make short percentage 45%.
    [15] Including 2 AH trades of 16K and 20K takes volume to 182,951. Treated as non-short (since they are "buys") would move short to 37.2%. If they were short sales that figure moves to 56.9%.
    [16] An AH trade of 3.8K does not appear in FINRA data. Volume's so low it doesn't see worthwhile to calculate the effect on short sales, but you can do the scenarios if you desire.
    [17] An AH trade of 13K, which doesn't show in FINRA numbers, is almost exactly 10% of daily volume through EOD, 132580 (FINRA's total). This trade at $0.34 (classified as "buy" with bid/ask $0.33/$0.344 then) seems most likely to be a short sale by the market-maker that accounts for shares (to be?) sold by Quercus. Excluding this trade entirely from EOD stats would move buy:sell ratio to 1:1.46. Presuming it was a short sale, not a "buy", would move the ratio to 1:1.70. Moreover, adding it to the FINRA volume as *not* a short sale would move the short sale percentage to 9.9% from the reported 10.86%. If those shares were short sales, the volume of short would move to 27,400 (18.8%), when including the 13K in both total and short sales volume.
    [18] An AH trade of 9.4K @ $0.3450, almost precisely 10% of the volume prior, 94.4K. I believe this is a Quercus-related trade. This volume is *not* included on FINRA-provided data. Adding that volume to both total and short sales would bring TO BE CONTINUED - FINRA REPORTED ERRONEOUS DATA (MISSING ~75% OF TRADES)!
    UPDATE: FINRA reported corrected data 7/12 with a short volume of 8,200 (7.9%) vs. the originally reported volume of 33,600 and short sales of 2,500 07.44%. I've changed the record above to reflect the correct values.
    [19] There was a 35K AH trade @ $0.345 that was 9.8% of the volume prior to that trade and I believe this was a Quercus-related trade. Adding this volume to both the day's total (upping it to 392,574) and short sales (taking that volume to 251,160) would yield 64% short sales for the day.
    [20] AH trade of 28K @ $0.3450, likely Quercus since it's 1/11th (~10%) of day's preceding volume).
    [21] There was a 5K "buy" @ $0.3420 just barely before the open, 09:29:38, that will not appear in the FINRA-reported daily volumes. With that, FINRA volumes indicate 42.27% short, higher than what I would report. *IF* that was a short sale, which we don't know, my calculated short percentage using FINRA numbers with the 5K added to both total and short volume, would be 45.5%
    [22] AH trade of 9K @ $0.30 a buy. Adding this to daily volume would take short percentage down to 27.3%. If we also include it as a short sale (reasonble as most after hour sales seem related to a Quercus sale, although it was only ~1.3% of daily total prior to that trade - much lower than the normal 10%), short percentage moves to 28.6%.
    [23] An apparent Quercus-related AH trade of 15.5K, which would not appear in FINRA data, would move the calculated short percentage to 54.91%, if include in just the total volume, and to 63.4% if included there and in short sales both.
    [24] AH trade of 15K shares at $0.31. It is not near 1/11th of the daily volume, as has been the case when we saw trades apparently associated with Quercus selling. If the normal 10% was involved, the size would have been around 46.3K. Adding the 15K to total volume would move short sales percentage to 49.1%. Adding it to short sales as well would but the percentage at 52.1%.
    [25] AH trade of 5,566 shares doesn't show on FINRA data. Adding to the day's volume would move short sales percentage to 35.7% and adding also to short sales would more the percentage to 37.7%.
    [26] A pre-market trade of 14K @ $0.35. Adding this to FINRA volume lowers the short percentage to 8.1%. If I also add it to the short sales, it goes to 37,812, ~12.9%.
    [27] 4,401 shares traded after-hours. It set the day's low at $0.33 and doesn't seem of the nature that we could attribute it to Quercus or any of our other larger sellers. With it being less than 1% of our total volume, it wouldn't have a noticeable effect on either short sales or buy:sell ratio.
    [28] It looks like Quercus was in - we had a 16K AH "buy" at $0.335, almost exactly 10% of the volume prior to that trade. Adding the 16K AH trade to FINRA day's volume would lower that short percentage to my calculated percentage, 52.1%. Adding it to the short sales too would increase the FINRA and my calculated percentage to 60.8%.
    [29] There was an AH trade of 930 shares at $0.3050, below the close of $0.3199. But the trade was marked pr. seq. by ADVFN, indicating that it was a trade that occurred earlier in the day.
    [30] 45 seconds after the close the was an AH trade of 27.7K @ $0.30 which is not included on the FINRA data. Adding this to the FINRA-reported volume moves short percentage from 17.73% to 17.2%. If we assume it was a short sale and also add it to the short sales volume, the percentage moves to 19.5%.
    [31] At 9:18:40 a pre-market trade of 5K at $0.30 went that will not appear on the FINRA-reported data. Adding this to the FINRA volume would bring the short sales percentage from 62.64% to 62.3% Adding it also to the short sales would move the percentage to 62.8%.
    [32] Two pre-market 25K trades, one at $0.305 and the other at $0.307, aren't included in the FINRA data. Adding them to total volume would move it to 975,685 and short percentage from 46.96% to 46.6%. If, however, we also add those to the short sales the percentage moves to 51.7%.
    [33] The short sales included a reporting of 6,846 "exempt" shares in the daily short sales. Backing these out of the short sales would yield a short percentage of 34.04%, about 4 basis-points down from what I report.
    [34] Two items of note today. An AH trade of 15K @ $0.3155 @ 04:13:49 doesent't appear in the FINRA-reported data. Including this in total volume yields a short sales percentage of 17.0%. If we also include it in short sales, it yields 25.7% short sales. We also had exempt short sales, 10,563, for the second day in a row. Backing these out from the FINRA-reported data moves the calculated percentage from 18.64% to 11.97%. Adding the 15K AH trade to, first, the total volume and then also the adjusted short sales would yield 10.9% and 19.6%.
    [35] A pre-market sale of 5K @ $0.3150 doesn't appear in the FINRA-reported totals. Adding this to the FINRA-reported total volume drops short percentage to 42.1% from the calculated 42.7%. Adding this 5K to shorts as well would move the percentage to 43.6%.
    [36] An AH trades of 10K at $0.3200 is not included in FINRA-reported data. Incud ing this in the volume would move the FINRA-based percentage calculated to my int ra-day chart value, 13.6%. If we also assume it was a short sale, the percentage moves to 22.7%.

    9/4/2012: (NASDAQ:AXPW) EOD stuff partially copied to the APC.
    # Trds: 25, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 15000, Vol 110094, AvTrSz: 4404
    Min. Pr: 0.3151, Max Pr: 0.3240, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3197
    # Buys, Shares: 23 99994, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3202
    # Sells, Shares: 2 10100, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3151
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 9.90:1 (90.8% "buys"), DlyShts 14955 (13.6%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 148.07%

    An AH trades of 10K at $0.3200 is not included in FINRA-reported data. Incud ing this in the volume would move the FINRA-based percentage calculated to my int ra-day chart value, 13.6%. If we also assume it was a short sale, the percentage moves to 22.7%.

    I'm still good with volume continuing downward, especially with the daily short sales following a similar trend. When I add in that our near-term re-trace seems to be ending and price made a small turn up, average trade sizes seems to be moving more and more towards retail investors' sizes and buy:sell trending positive, what's not to like?

    Well, some folks want a pop and may get it, but I'm still hoping for and seeing near-term suggestions that this is a grind upward in progress. I like that.

    I remain positive on the price action and near-term prospects and still foresee only small downside risk. Regardless of a "pause" earlier than I expected (some short-term profit taking and risk reduction?), I'm still expecting the $0.35-$0.37 range to present another opportunity to "take a breather".

    This technical assessment of my experimental stuff seems to be bolstered by the recent positive press in the green space and from Rosewater. I believe that as John has surmised, when the market becomes aware of the Axion story it will have a huge move. I believe we are seeing the beginnings of this now, which I hope will manifest as a grind upwards.

    The following was omitted from the daily concentrator posting.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%
    Tue., 9/4 148.07%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%
    Sep Avg (through 9/4): 148.07%

    8/31/2012: EOD stuff partially copied to the APC: "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" omitted in the APC post.
    # Trds: 37, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 52000, Vol 352000, AvTrSz: 9514
    Min. Pr: 0.3120, Max Pr: 0.3250, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3190
    # Buys, Shares: 30 209700, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3195
    # Sells, Shares: 7 142300, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3182
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.47:1 (59.6% "buys"), DlyShts 148300 (42.1%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 104.22%

    There was a pre-market sale of 5K @ $0.3150 which doesn't appear in the FINRA-reported short sales totals. Adding this to the FINRA-reported total volume drops short percentage to 42.1% (my intra-day statistics calculated value) from the calculated 42.7% using only FINRA data. Adding this 5K to shorts as well would move the percentage to 43.6%. Regardless, it looks like were still in a choppy trend lower. If price shows substantial improvement again, I expect short sales will pop up again.

    Daily volume came in close to the averages, 391K, 385K, 363K, and 318 while average trade size was above it's averages of 6,260, 6,895, 6,867, and 6,037. Buys are right in the recent 10-day average range of 59% and above the others at 51%, 56%, and 54%.

    Price continues to exhibit characteristics of taking a pause before continuing a trend up. I expect the next pause area to be in the $0.35-$0.37 area and was surprised, somewhat, to see us pause and "revert" a bit from that ~$0.34 range. I'm still thinking that's the result of some retail traders taking their short-term profit and don't expect this pause to last long.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28% 104.22%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Avg (through 8/31): 113.91%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    8/30/2012: AXPW EOD stuff copied (partially) to the APC.
    # Trds: 30, MinTrSz: 150, MaxTrSz: 33300, Vol 173461, AvTrSz: 5782
    Min. Pr: 0.3110, Max Pr: 0.3297, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3155
    # Buys, Shares: 14 51912, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3190
    # Sells, Shares: 16 121549, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3140
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.34 (29.9% "buys"), DlyShts 29517 (17.0%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 24.28%

    Daily short sales continues to trend down, as well as the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'", which I don't yet know how useful that might be. I did take a brief look at price trends and there is a possibility that when this is trending up price declines. And the inverse seems a good possibility as well. But that's just based on a brief look at two months and shouldn't be given much weight right now.

    The expected volume decline trend has continued. This has been generally accompanied by price compression, as expected, but there's been a small change recently. Through the 22nd, the low, high and VWAP were converging and became very close. On the 23rd the high began to diverge from the low and VWAP substantially. The VWAP moved to a median point between the low and high briefly and then collapsed to near the low again as both trended down.

    But the high has remained "elevated", relatively, and hasn't demonstrated a lot of weakness in spite of the less favorable buy:sell ratios recently. An increasing price spread, especially with falling volume, is one of the indicators that a change in behavior is (quite?) near. By itself it doesn't suggest direction.

    Being we had a run from a low of $0.28 (but do keep in mind that only a few shares hit that level) to $0.34, this seems a normal re-trace. If we apply some traditional TA trend lines, we see a triangle formed, symbolic of short-term consolidation, which often terminates in a break to continue the prior trend. We've come back to very near the "mean" of, say, $0.29-$0.34 and the two most likely scenarios, I think, are a brief sideways move (but quite optional) followed by a resumption of trend up.

    I would like to hang my hat on a price rise portended by a falling daily short sales percentage, but my experimental charts clearly show that there is no reliable correlation there. In February, shorts trend down with price. In March the average level of shorts moved up, spiked and trend down again. What happened to price? Flattened and then rose substantially. Through April, shorts and price were both sort of "flattish". In May shorts sales rose and price fell. In June short sales moved higher, but became very choppy spiking several times and making a generally down trend as time passed, (Mega-C shares entering?) and price fell. Ditto for July.

    Now, in August, we observed low short sales in the first half of the month, choppiness with a couple very high spikes and a following trend down. During this period price first continued down, then rose.

    So for now I only think it tells us that a change (reversal, rate change of trend?) is in process. Other than that, I don't hang much weight on the actions of daily short sales relative to price action, although I had been looking at that possibility in the past and thought I might have seen something. It seems most likely now that it's just indicative of a change in price behavior. I am however going to be looking at a possible "T+3" relationship which might yield something of use. Since the daily short sales are predominately a market-maker mechanics effect relating to sell orders, covering buys and DTCC clearing operations there ought to be some intelligence buried in there that may be useful.

    Not much to add - we're doing what we've been doing, which is making small moves and pauses. All things considered, I'm still leaning towards a grind upwards.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...

    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48% 24.28%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Avg (through 8/30): 114.35%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    8/29/2012: EOD stuff copied to APC, partially.
    # Trds: 40, MinTrSz: 130, MaxTrSz: 23000, Vol 171061, AvTrSz: 4277
    Min. Pr: 0.3152, Max Pr: 0.3300, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3221
    # Buys, Shares: 25 110511, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3236
    # Sells, Shares: 15 60550, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3192
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.83:1 (% "buys), DlyShts 65081 (%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 107.48%

    I remain with a positive outlook on near-to-medium-term price action as the current action seems right in line with what should happen following a nice rise off the recent $0.2800 low. I believe at least one of our larger sellers is gone, as John suggested would be the case, and have concern right now only with Special Situations. Blackrock is always a looming possible cloud, but volumes seem to suggest that we have only, at most, a larger seller in the game at these price levels because "pushing and shoving" at the "pay window" seems dramatically abated.

    As surmised, short sales continue with a choppy trend lower off the recent peaks. This reflects behavior seen in the past. Haven't had time to dig into the possible "T++3" scenario yet, but it's looking promising down the road for providing some useful guidance to "what's next".

    Volume also continues the predicted trend lower and, as both WTB and Mathieu discussed, we're seeing the asks reacting by trending lower and the bids trending, somewhat, to inch up. The result is a narrowing price spread.

    With a nice move up from $0.28 (on the 17th) to the recent high of $0.34 (the 24th and 27th), we're seeing some traders taking advantage by taking some profits here, causing a small re-trace. IMO, not much to be concerned about - pretty much normal IMO.

    This is supported by both short sales (some of those buys on the way up would not have settled yet) and the average trade size falling. The reason I believe this latter item supports that view is that we've seen what, IMO, is increasing evidence that the larger sellers are out at this price level (trades size highs decreasing since 7/9 - I had surmised in the past that 7/10 might be a day that one or more of them were gone - and buy:sell ratio trend beginning to improve around 8/2 and showing recently in the 10-day average change). Note also that the buy:sell, after two "down" days, reversed to positive.

    We've been noting, as well, changes in the bid ask behavior that suggests the larger sellers are less active. The dropping of the asks seems less aggressive recently and the low ask at many time is from ATDF, which we think is a market-maker that has more retail traders, while NITE, UBSS and FANC spend less time being the best ask. Further, yesterday's lows seem to have been the result of "lures" seem strongly related to the fact that best bids by UBSS and NITE were at $0.315 and $0.316 and were, on occasion, the best bids. The "fishing" eventually garnered a couple of spooked longs (I guess) when they got ~18.4K to go around those levels late in the day (starting with 2 5K trades at 14:15 and 1 8K trade at 15:33). Other than these and the couple "fishing lures", price stayed at $0.32 or greater.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1% 107.48%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Avg (through 8/29): 118.64%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    8/28/2012: EOD stuff copied to the APC
    # Trds: 51, MinTrSz: 363, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 244930, AvTrSz: 4803
    Min. Pr: 0.3275, Max Pr: 0.3349, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3304,
    # Buys, Shares: 32 94880, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3318
    # Sells, Shares: 19 150050, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3295
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.58 (38.7% "buys"), DlyShts 91679 (37.4%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 61.10%

    Volume continues to trend lower, now being below the 4 moving averages (10, 25, 50 and 100 days) of 675K, 448K, 389K, and 333K.

    Daily short sales also continue to trend lower, following the patter that I've now identified, in a preliminary fashion through a cursory manual examination. This pattern consists of a "spike" followed, in many cases, by a "bottom" three days later unless a secondary smaller spike occurs on the way down. In this latter case a bottom often occurs three days after the secondary spike. This pattern may also occur on "non-spike" events of just making a swing up to some level and then reversing. I've not had time to examine this yet, but visually it appears likely.

    This leads me to suspect that my thoughts about the T+3 cycle, wherein shares backing prior sell orders flow to the market-maker(s), who have apparently covered some (substantial?) portion of those short sales, who then release them into the market for additional profit. But I need to do some correlation with price and volume(?) action to see if this seems a supportable thesis.

    If and when I might get to that is unknown as one set of eyeballs can only be stretched so far.

    Meanwhile back at the ranch, VWAP, high and now the low, have all gone above three of my four VWAP averages of 0.3216, 0.3201, 0.3270 and 0.3566 (10, 25, 50 and 100 days). Correlation with the trend lines continues to weaken (meaning we are not as closely sticking to the long-term, down trend) as now both the low and VWAP trend lines have started to show a slightly lower correlation. Only the trend for the highs still holds steady.

    Average trade size continues to fall. After considering it for a while, I'm reading this as big sellers getting drained. Why?

    As price has risen average trade size has dropped while we have simultaneously exhibited good buying support (check the experimental charts and note the 10-day buy:sell squiggle). Based on past behavior, under these conditions if multiple big sellers were heavy in the market we would see much higher percentages of "sells" (yes, we've had an increase the last couple of days, but not outsized yet) and larger average trade sizes. We'd also see price, especially the high, have trouble moving up. But look what's happened to the high since 8/16: 0.3025, 0.3050, 0.3050, 0.3050, 0.3380, 0.3400, 0.3400, and 0.3349.

    I suspect that while we thought we were watching grass grow we were really seeing weeds grow. It's now getting recognizable for what it is.

    More impressive is than the highs' change is the lows: in that same period lows went from $0.28 to now $0.3275, a larger percentage increase.

    That's all the detail I'll post in the APC. The new and unproven "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" is in my instablog with the charts.

    I remain bullish and am looking forward to the grind up, which I fear may be short-lived and turn into a rocket. But if Special Situations is indeed filling the role of a swing trader, they may inadvertently aid our (my?) cause of a sustained trend. To paraphrase an idiot on CNBC, "... 45 degrees" or so. We'll have to introduce him to "scaling".

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71% 61.1%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg (through 8/28): 119.20%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    8/27/2012: EOD stuff copied to the APC.

    # Trds: 65, MinTrSz: 170, MaxTrSz: 35000, Vol 379015, AvTrSz: 5831
    Min. Pr: 0.3260, Max Pr: 0.3400, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3312
    # Buys, Shares: 42 159925, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3334
    # Sells, Shares: 23 219090, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3296
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.37 (42.2% "buys"), DlyShts 76050 (20.1%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 34.71%

    Got what I believe are good signs going on today. I remain constructive on the share price and seem to have support for this view from my experimental metrics and traditional TA as well.

    The first is that even as buy:sell went "negative" by a small amount, the daily short sales dropped by both a large amount (61%) and percentage (from 54.9% to 20.1%). Considering that total volume increased 6.1%, this is a positive, IMO. I had been concerned that shorts might remain high as price moved against us.

    This didn't happen. My best SWAG is that the market-makers had been covering some earlier short sales when prices favored that action and are now releasing incoming shares that backed prior short sales into the market. Under this scenario, they have no reason to engage in short sales and have an incentive to help keep prices up as they wish to sell those incoming shares at additional profit. Assuming a T+3 delivery interval, the timing seems about right as well.

    I'm also encouraged by seeing behavior that I expect. As I've mentioned a few times, I expected a trend of volume lower for a bit. If you check my experimental charts, you see this happening. When things don't act as I expect I get a bit more concerned.

    Meanwhile, back at the ranch, prices have move up nicely over the last few days with the VWAP above the 10, 25 and 50-day averages and even the low has improved to just below the 50-day SMA. If price doesn't collapse today, it's likely that the 10-day average will move above the 25-day average and we'll have what appears to be a good steady sustained uptrend in place. Of note is that prices and averages have all move above those nasty long-term trend lines and the correlation between prices and those three trend lines, which had been strengthening and had achieved correlations in the high 6x%-70% has begun to break down on the lows trend line - only a 1% retreat but every change ha a first step.

    Average trade sizes are hanging right in around all the moving averages and the buy:sell 10-day average has continued a nice reversal, now residing above the 100-day average.

    I've been tracking the "inflection points", using the suggestion Mathieu offered and 15th and 16th the 10 and buy:sell 25-day calculation made moves: 10-day -471.17 to 5.25; 5-day -13.24 to 331.98. These may not be the best metrics to use for inflection points, but I had to start somewhere and it turns out that VWAP made a reversal in that time and started up. I'll be adding this calculation to the other metrics sometime in the future and maybe we'll see something useful emerge there. Possibly supporting the utility of these calculations is that the 50 and 100-day values made these moves on the 13th and 14, just ahead of the short-term calculations: 50-day -73.34 to 140.99; 100-day -291.91 to 331.33.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%
    Mon., 8/27: 34.71%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg (through 8/27): 122.26%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    8/24/2012 EOD stuff copied to the APC.
    # Trds: 53, MinTrSz: 170, MaxTrSz: 69800, Vol 354522, AvTrSz: 6689
    Min. Pr: 0.3256, Max Pr: 0.3400, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3332
    # Buys, Shares: 40 249438, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3348
    # Sells, Shares: 12 93084, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3293
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 12000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3300
    Buy:Sell 2.68:1 (70.4% "buys"), DlyShts 194727 (54.9%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 209.19%

    Since I'm going to exclude a lot of my instablog detailed thoughts in the daily APC EOD stuff, I'm going to start with a summary here.

    I'm leaning bullish with some concerns for the daily short sales remaining high. But there are ways of looking at that which may mitigate a negative slant and lead to a more positive outlook as a result of this data point. What I'm seeing supports John's 10/200 day cross is correctly forecasting the move up but I'm expecting more of a grind up (disclosure: I've been hoping for that and may be suffering confirmation bias here) rather than a rocket up. My outlook results from trying to blend the factors I see on my experimental charts into some kind of meaningful evaluation, while making guesses about the underlying causes of these technical indications.

    On the traditional TA front, price broke above a falling resistance that originated 5/3 and had multiple subsequent tests and failures. It now resides above the 10, 20, and 50-day SMAs. However, this was on weak volume, relative to recent, and with an RSI that weakened to 57.05 from Thursday's recent peak of 62.06. I'm more concerned with the volume than the RSI for now as we had a nice "cupping" of the volume starting last week and Friday's was below my 25-day average of ~398.4K. But this might be just a "Friday" effect.

    Regardless, I do expect some resistance to appear around the $0.35 area and then $0.37. The reasons have been mentioned in the past, so I'll leave it at that. A factor not discussed in relation to those price points is the apparent continued possible presence of some larger sellers. Although I think the Mega-C trustee is likely out, there's a couple things that suggest someone may have stepped in to take their place, but indications are not that strong about this - might be retail holders being "pulled" unto selling by seeing a nice little gain that eliminates some risk as well.

    I note, by looking at my experimental charts, that the daily short sales are behaving differently. Since February, when I started this stuff, when we've seen a spike in the daily short sales percentage, it has immediately withdrawn back to more normal levels, spike up again but to a lower level, withdrawn, ... and generally entered a down trend to or below the short-term averages and "hovered" around those and the longer-term averages.

    This time there has been no withdrawal to speak of. Since 8/17 the daily short sales have remained elevated (see the charts), although the trend is lower. Moreover, in the prior cases, excepting the 3/19 instance, price trended down.

    Now price is trending up.

    Associated with short sales spikes, volume also followed a pattern, tending to stay around the averages until about 5 weeks after the short sales spike. Then there would be a volume spike which would tail off and go back to a more "normal" range and behavior. The volume spikes tended to be smaller on successive occurrences. This time the volume spike came before the short sales spike and the degree of withdrawal has been less than in the prior occurrences. This seems rational since the 10-day and 25-day volume average started a sustained uptrend around 7/9 and has continued long enough to drag the 50-day and 100-day averages along. So we now have a relationship in the volume averages of 10 > 25 > 50 >100 with all but the 100-day average, which is flat, rising. This condition came into being 8/10 and has strengthened since.

    The cautionary note is that the daily short sales percentage averages are about to enter the same condition. Where are the short sales coming from? We had been anticipating some reduction in this metric as the known big sellers apparently would become exhausted. Has Blackrock, Special Situations (which I've suspected has become a swing trader) or Manatuck Hill jumped in to the selling fray as higher prices are trying to appear?

    Regardless, average trade size, buy:sell and price are suggesting that price is not ready to make a substantial retreat under selling pressure here. In fact, I think these support John's 10/200 day cross predicting "what's next". My only caveat is that we are seeing the volume slowly weaken ATM, suggesting not that we will see price weaken necessarily (too many things, including TPOTSE suggest the possibility of upward prices) but that we may see my devoutly-desired slow grind up beginning instead of a teeth-loosening rocket blast. If those daily short sales don't return to some normal percentage area soon I feel certain that the grind scenario is the near-term effect we can see. But there is a reason they might remain high, which I speculate on next.

    I'm thinking that the short sales may be an effect of something I suggested a while back, that a "pull" effect is in play. In this scenario, sellers are not pushing to get out regardless, but are instead enticed to sell by strong buying demand resulting in higher prices. The sellers are being "pulled" into the market rather than "pushing" into the market and fighting each other for sales.

    Considering the short sales to "sells" percentage this seems plausible. A noticeable percentage of the shorts are incurred when the ask is hit (see the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" above and summary below). Even if we assume that 100% of "sells" result in a short sale flag, we see that there's still substantial numbers of short sale flags generated when a "buy" occurs.

    We also see that the monthly averages of the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" seems to be trending back toward levels that were seen prior to the Mega-C shares hitting the market. Could this indicate that one or more of the big sellers is nearing exhaustion or exhausted or out of the market for a while? Remember that not all short sales are a result of certificate conversion delays. They can and do occur just because the shares sold are not in the market-makers' portfolios. This leaves the door open for both various retailers selling, as well as Mega-C trustee and other big sellers selling, to cause a short sale flag.

    Regardless, I think that the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" trending back towards pre-June levels says the Mega-C shares are exhausted or very nearly so and the short sales seen now are the result of other factors. This seems supported by a change in the trend of the "buy:sell" which ceased a general decline early in August and began a trend up which is clearly seen from 8/14 forward, reflected in the 10-day average and will soon be seen in the 25-day average as well if that ratio doesn't tank quickly.

    Continuing tracking the "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" values JIC it turns out to be useful ...
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13% 209.19%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg (through 8/24): 127.12%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    8/23/2012: EOD stuff copied to the APC.
    # Trds: 116, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 74000, Vol 975685, AvTrSz: 8411
    Min. Pr: 0.3012, Max Pr: 0.3380, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3172,
    # Buys, Shares: 92 614085, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3167
    # Sells, Shares: 22 331600, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3165
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 30000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3350
    Buy:Sell 1.85:1 (62.9% "buys"), DlyShts 454735 (46.6%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 137.13%

    Two pre-market 25K trades, one at $0.305 and the other at $0.307, aren't included in the FINRA data. Adding them to total volume would move it to 975,685 and short percentage from 46.96% to 46.6%, matching my calculated value. If, however, we also add those to the short sales the percentage moves to 51.7%.

    I was glad to see stuff, other than volume, start trending towards more normal values today. Specifically, I was concerned that short sales percentage would remain elevated to an extreme and average trade size would remain at a level suggestive of only very cautious smaller retail investors. I also had concern that my new "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" might range in outrageous territory.

    On the short sales front it was concerning because I've begun to believe that the extreme choppiness in that value is a result of the mechanical aspects of the process combined with market-maker decisions and actions. With the short sales starting to return to normal, my hypothesis may still be viable. More on that some day in the future.

    Other than that, not much to say other than the volume, price and buy:sell, trade size average continue to show good positive sentiment.

    Continuing tracking the monthly values on my new short/sells ratio JIC it turns out to be useful.
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71% 899.39% 137.13%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Avg: 122.30%, min: 0.00%, max: 899.39%

    8/22/2012: EOD stuff copied to the APC
    # Trds: 103, MinTrSz: 140, MaxTrSz: 49835, Vol 525637, AvTrSz: 5103
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3050, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3046
    # Buys, Shares: 93 487867, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3047
    # Sells, Shares: 10 37770, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3026
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 12.92:1 (92.8% "buys"), DlyShts 339699 (64.6%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 899.39%

    First, I want to emphasis that "Dly Sht % of 'sells'" is new, has unknown utility and, I think, might have value only in a more normal daily scenario. Today we experienced "TPOTSE" - The (John) Petersen On "The Street" Effect, IMO. From the open at $0.30 through EOD we averaged ~1,348 shares traded per minute. Going only through ~14:45, when things slowed, we averaged ~1,669 shares per minute. This is very unusual for AXPW.

    You can see the "enthusiasm" in the buy:sell ratio.

    Being such an unusual day, I'll not blather as much as usual. I just want to see if there is a longer-term effect (going beyond just three days or a week) and if this is enough to suck the remaining shares out of the hands of the big sellers. Might have seen a crack in the wall yesterday as a couple of folks reported seeing some break in the ARCA market-maker presentations over the last couple of days. I also saw this late yesterday as the normal "standard" block of 5K ask presentation was replaced with a 7K presentation on the ask side.

    Another possible indication is that, although it's still early (08:05), only NITE is showing the "standard" 5K ask at $0.305 ATM and EGRO and ARCA are not yet on the field, according to my Market Depth (Level II) panel.

    8/21/2012: EOD stuff copied to the APC
    # Trds: 63, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 304212, AvTrSz: 4829
    Min. Pr: 0.2900, Max Pr: 0.3050, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3011
    # Buys, Shares: 47 203780, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3025
    # Sells, Shares: 16 100432, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2984
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.03:1 (67.0%), DlyShts 156380 (51.4%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 155.71%

    Tracking the monthly values on my new short/sells ratio JIC it turns out to be useful.
    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14% 155.71%

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug Avg: 69.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 393.87%

    Daily short sales held flat from yesterday, a change from previous spikes (can be seen on the charts) in that the prior ones had immediate big drops. Monday's and Tuesday's drop was small from the Friday spike. I don't know what it means, but it is different.

    Price spread continues to be tight and the VWAP was essentially flat, moving only 6/100ths of a penny lower as volume moved below the 50-day average and back to 100-day average, continuing the drop that was expected after the spike begun on the 14th and ending on Thursday the 16th. Recall that we thought this might be suggesting the end of our consolidation was near and we expected the volume drop as a follow-on action.

    For me, this "behaving as expected" is important.

    Average trade size, which had spiked higher Thursday and Friday, dropped back, going below all the averages as buy:sell maintains its elevated "buy" status above all the averages and above the trend line on the charts.

    It's apparent that we still have strong selling pressure but it is being offset by buying pressure ATM. As expected, the 10-day "buy" average is about to cross above the 25-day average unless the ratio tanks Wednesday 8/22. The values currently are 50.4% and 51.1%.

    Everything is "choppy", suggesting a change (as it has been for a while now), but without "agreement" from my experimental stuff on what the nature and direction will be. Applying thoughts from John that sellers ought to be near exhaustion and those from Mathieu regarding seller and buyer behavior during low or reducing volumes, I'm leaning towards up as the next step, but it's not yet showing in the traditional or experimental charts, other than the couple experimental items I mentioned above.

    8/20/2012: EOD stuff copied to the APC
    # Trds: 58, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 427246, AvTrSz: 7366
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3050, VW Avg. Tr. Pr:0.3013
    # Buys, Shares: 29 257576, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3021
    # Sells, Shares: 28 168670, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3001
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 1000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3025
    Buy:Sell 1.53:1 (60.3%), DlyShts 217826 (51.0%), Dly Sht % of "sells" 129.14%

    First, note the extreme price range compression, the buy:sell remaining positive and the continued fall in the volume. I'm always comforted when things are behaving as I expected. This reinforces my belief that we are in the process of exiting the previous consolidation trend. Up or down is unknown, but when I combine that with JP's tracked values for shares in the big sellers hands, I'm leaning heavily toward transiting to an uptrend. There is a possibility that we just move to another sideways range, based on past behavior, but I think it's less likely than in the past because of the obvious continued progress by the company and the beginnings of greater awareness by the market, due to a few recent articles I guess. This would be supported if the big sellers were either exhausted shortly or at least on hiatus for an extended period.

    Special Situations remains a concern because, as I've mentioned in the past, I think they are acting more like swing traders now. If they've been accumulating and we do move substantially higher, they would likely pick a price point at which to sell and hold price down. How much effect would they have? It really depends on market sentiment at the time and the volume and direction of pressure resulting from that. Might be no more than John's "speed bump" if buying pressure is really strong at the time.

    Looking at the daily short sales, Friday was quite high but barely exceed the 3/19 value (62% vs. 62.3%). This is a change in that the short sales spikes since 3/19 had been exceeding 3/19's value in every case by a healthy margin. This might lend credence to the thoughts that the big sellers' strength is being sapped. As with the previous spikes, this one will also likely exhibit a choppy trend down, which began to show Monday.

    Average trade size remains "healthy", ending Monday right at the 10 and 25-day average and right on the rising long-term trend line. As mentioned before, the buy:sell 10-day average has recovered nicely and is poised to cross above the 25-day average.

    I've added daily short as a percent of "sells" to my tracking, although they are not in chart form yet. Unsure of it's utility as yet, but we did see some potential, which was discussed in a comment replying to Iindelco in the past. For a little context, here are the values since the start of August.

    Wed., 8/01: 2.37% 46.91% 0.00%
    Mon., 8/06: 19.99% 33.11% 3.34% 73.89% 33.88%
    Mon., 8/13: 25.13% 3.06% 71.64% 50.47% 393.87%
    Mon., 8/20: 129.14%
    Avg: 63.34%, min: 0.00%, max: 393.87%

    The "pop" in that figure Friday suggested, to me, that something is happening. In the discussion of this in the comment I noted that the average had returned to the ranges seen prior to the Mega-C shares entering the market. Note also that Monday's value dropped to about 1/3rd of Friday's. Is it possible that the "pop" and re-trace (maybe moving back to the pre-Mega-C shares averages?) suggest that indeed, as JP has been forecasting, the big sellers are about out of ammo? Here are the monthly averages.

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug (through 8/16) Avg: 30.32%, min: 0.00%, max: 73.89% (excludes Fri.)

    Putting everything together, I'm leaning "constructive" on the coming trend.

    8/17/2012: EOD stuff copied to APC.
    # Trds: 91. MinTrSz: 160, MaxTrSz: 70000, Vol 935726, AvTrSz: 10283
    Min. Pr: 0.2800, Max Pr: 0.3025, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2989
    # Buys, Shares: 71 787712, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2999
    # Sells, Shares: 20 148014, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2934
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 5.32:1 (84.2% "buys"), DlyShts 582984 (62.3%)

    At 9:18:40 a pre-market trade of 5K at $0.30 went that will not appear on the FINRA-reported data. Adding this to the FINRA volume would bring the short sales percentage from 62.64% calculated on FINRA's data to match mine above. 62.3%. Adding it also to the short sales would move the percentage to 62.8%, and affect mine similarly.

    Note that the low for the day was set by just three trades below $0.29 totaling 39,340, 4.2% of total volume, at $0.28/$0.2810.

    There was an extensive discussion of some oddities related to daily short sales, the ratio of these to "sells" that may prove useful down the road and whether or not "Axionistas" might be doing heavy selling. This was in response to a comment by Iindelco, which sparked me to look at things slightly differently. I posted my response as a comment, found at the bottom of the comments in the instablog for now. Later I will move that content into the header if it appears there is some validity to my musings there.

    Beyond that, I'll only say take note of the excessive daily short sales, relative to the volume, at the same time noting the very strong buy:sell ratio. I had noted previously that I expected volume to start to subside and Friday volume did that, but not excessively (that would have concerned me). Now I do expect volume to drop off more rapidly and will be watching the other stuff, including price, ebb and flow during the day, buy:sell, ... to try and determine "what's next".

    Heavy volume with demonstrated price weakness would be very concerning now as I suspect that the heavy sellers are getting near exhaustion. Falling volume right now with price stability or even a little strength would be a plus and not unexpected. This is because often folks that have a positive outlook on reported results and desire to enter or add will wait a few days to let any perceived excess exuberance subside and catch a good price on some pullback. The fact that our share price has demonstrated a reluctance to fall dramatically will likely not enter their minds.

    LoL! In fairness though, with the big sellers hammering away, price has also demonstrated a strong reluctance to rise!

    8/16/2012: EOD stuff copied to APC.
    # Trds: 114, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol 1203770, AvTrSz: 10559
    Min. Pr: 0.2961, Max Pr: 0.3100, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.3008
    # Buys, Shares: 80 792345, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3010
    # Sells, Shares: 34 411425, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3005
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.93:1 ( 65.8% "buys"), DlyShts 207630 (17.2%)

    45 seconds after the close there was an AH trade of 27.7K @ $0.30 which is not included on the FINRA data. Adding this to the FINRA-reported volume moves short percentage from 17.73% to 17.2%. If we assume it was a short sale and also add it to the short sales volume, the percentage moves to 19.5%.

    I don't think I need to say a lot - obviously the apparent bullish sentiment that started to appear as a result of the quarterly results seemed to strengthen today. The first 18 trades, through 11:33 (less than half through the conference call) had all "buys" but for two. Buy:sell was 5.91:1, 85.52% through that period and total volume was 70.45K with a VWAP of $0.2992. The sellers then held sway through 12:10, 15 trades "sells" but for 1. Through the rest of the day, we obtained a VWAP of $0.3012 on 81 trades, 41% "buys". This is fairly remarkable, IMO, since we could see that the sellers were both heavy in today and not adjusting their prices to adapt to the bullish sentiment.

    The last things I want to mention are my assessment that we had reached an inflection point, exiting the consolidation phase, the volume and the 10-day average buy percentage.

    My guess is that volume is likely to tail off now, for a while (few days?), and the price should not yet start a meteoric rise. But over a few days we should see some movement begin as the apparently bullish sentiment engendered by my "decent" report and positive comments in the conference call scenario seems to have been realized. With 5 analysts (see Metro's comments in the APC for a list of them), one of which was apparently a "honcho" for Blackrock, I expect we'll observe a programmed buy plan take effect after a short time.

    I had expected the 10-day buy percentage to flatten out on the 17th, but failed to anticipate how strong the volume and sentiment would be today. It didn't flatten out today, but actually turned up significantly. If the either sellers are predominately exhausted now or the buying activities begin sooner than I expect, this could continue to rise quite quickly, exceeding my expectations by a wide margin. If this occurs, the 25-day average will also start to rise quite quickly and it will be short order until both are above the 50 and 100-day averages. Watching the average trade sizes, price and short sales percentages in conjunction with "buys" should confirm the existence, or lack, of an inflection point being achieved. Later, I think, volume will start to come in and provide some steadily rising averages. This will eventually bring John's magical cross into play.

    8/15/2012: EOD stuff copied to the APC.
    # Trds: 89, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 764351, AvTrSz: 8588
    Min. Pr: 0.2860, Max Pr: 0.3050, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2975
    # Buys, Shares: 62 547839, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2989
    # Sells, Shares: 27 216512, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2942
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.53:1 (71.7% "buys"), DlyShts 155100 (20.3%)

    Set a new low for the time I've been doing the experimental charts, since February.

    However it was not the minimum VWAP, which sits at $0.2939 from July 19th when volume was ~743K, daily short sales were about 103K (13.95%) and "buys" were only 25.5% (a ratio of 1:2.92). That was in a period when the averages for short sales were generally much higher than the current readings (see below), the four from 7/19 being 34.13%, 26.97%, 25.67%, and 22%. We suspect, now, that all the big sellers were in during that time-frame and, specifically, the Mega-C shares trustee should have been very active.

    Note how well VWAP (prior 5 days were 0.3067, 0.3068, 0.3080, 0.3021, and 0.2988) and buy:sell ratio did in spite of strong selling pressure. There were apparently lots of folks awaiting these prices and/or were influenced by the quarterly reports showing decent increases, which were expected, in the revenues and the commentary.

    Disclosure: I was one of those awaiting these prices and added, including today's purchase, 60K shares the last couple of days. I am, however, rather distraught that I paid $0.0035 more than today's VWAP for the first bunch the other day. My bottom-feeder status may be in dire jeopardy. I may never recover from the psychological damage inflicted by this misstep. ... ;-)

    I have to wonder what is the exact meaning of the daily short percentage being at the low side of our averages the last four days. These days were 23.2%, 21.3%, 2.5%, and 20.3% (today). The 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages are 18.96%, 25.78%, 25.00%, and 22.22% respectively. ISTM the likely scenario over multiple days like this is that Blackrock and/or Special Situations, both of which I assume have good "connectivity" with market-makers and experience little or no delay in getting shares into market-maker portfolios, are in the market. This assumes that the Mega-C trustee doesn't have that, which has been my guess.

    I should note that some time back I had taken a long-term average (from 11/11?) and calculated a running average of 36.3%, IIRC. This period include the time which we know included heavy selling by multiple entities including Special Situations, Quercus and Blackrock(?). ISTR there was another, but I can't recall it and also can't recall if Mannituck(sp?) was involved. Anyway, since I started this experimental intra-day tracking (February), a very rough visual inspection suggests that "normal" is in the lower 2x% area so far.

    However, I can't say we've ever seen "normal" behavior yet.

    IMO, today's volume suggests confirmation of my assessment the other day that the volume spike said our trend, consolidation, was ending. With the second day in a row of increasing volume, regardless of price action, I believe we are at an inflection point. Some lower price may be possible, but I think it will be minimal movement lower and maybe none at all. Using past forays into this price range as a template, I think we're likely to see a trend up begin soon. However, if Special Situations is, indeed, acting like a swing trader, as I suggested recently, we'll likely see at least a pause around the $0.35-$0.37 area (from memory - haven't looked at the charts in detail yet). And if Blackrock joins the fray around that area, it may be more than a pause. These effects could be ameliorated by any general improvement in market-awareness of Axion, caused by the reported results and today's upcoming conference call. It may be today's buy:sell is demonstrating that this awareness has already arrived for some portion of that market.

    I'll stop here as I've not gone into depth looking at either traditional TA or my experimental stuff.

    I'll have my experimental instablog stuff updated in a half-hour or so.

    8/14/2012: EOD stuff copied to the APC.
    # Trds: 62, MinTrSz: 125, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol 444854, AvTrSz: 7175
    Min. Pr: 0.2900, Max Pr: 0.3070, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2988
    # Buys, Shares: 23 76474, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3006
    # Sells, Shares: 39 368380, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2984
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:4.82 (17.2% "buys"), DlyShts 11257 (2.5%)

    Commentary delayed - may put something up late today.

    8/13/2012: EOD stuff copied to the APC
    # Trds: 41, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 12525, Vol 184415, AvTrSz: 4498
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3085, Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3085
    # Buys, Shares: 13 28450, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3069
    # Sells, Shares: 28 155965, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3013
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:5.48 (15.43% "buys"), DlyShts 39200 (21.26%)

    Price compression continues.

    Most notable today was the buy:sell ratio, which is the fourth lowest I've recorded since I started tracking 2/6/2012. But it doesn't concern me as I was expecting heavy selling based on JP's estimates that the Mega-C shares should be nearing an end. My thinking is when there's not much left to sell, price is less significant since fewer shares times a fraction of a penny is much less money in the seller's eyes and likely not worth haggling over. That's why when I saw the bid frozen at $0.30 early today, I popped mine in at $0.301, figuring I had a good chance to fill. I also broke the order into two tranches, 15K and 25K, so that I didn't present excessive demand. It was worth eating the second transaction fee. I got all but 5K filled.

    The second notable thing was the relatively low daily short sales percentage, considering the obvious selling that was going on, suggested by the price action and buy:sell ratio. The average since I began tracking is 22.3% and the median is 19.9%. So the percentage came in much lower than I would have expected under these circumstances, unless ...

    Two easy scenarios: I think Quercus and Blackrock were not in - their certificate conversion would generate short sales flags - and (apparently?) the Mega-C shares trustee was a little light today as it has been my best guess in the past that they caused short sales, it appearing their broker can't easily transfer shares into a market-maker's books; the market-makers may have been covering prior short sales as the price(s) became attractive and subsequently the shares flowing in from those prior sell orders were darn near "free" and could be sold into the market at a low price to make still more profit.

    Based on John's post today about Special Situations, a third possibility presents: Special Situations could be selling and I'm guessing that they have well-established relationships with one or more brokerages that are holding their shares. I'd also guess that the makers they use have their own, or ready access to, market-makers such that shares could be easily placed into market-maker portfolios, thereby obviating the need for flagging the SS sales as shorts. I wouldn't be surprised if they were selling now as the reduction in share count reported in John's comment occurred when price was dropping from around $0.44x down to around $0.34 and even lower during that period. But we have no way to know if they are still selling or not.

    Regarding the "strange" behavior of Special Situations, they are acting a lot like "swing traders". Dumped out Q4 of '11 (maybe some tax reasons too?), helping to create extreme lows, bought back in at or near those lows in Q1 '12, began selling near the highs around (after?) EOM March. If they are astute "swing traders", they ought to start buying again around this price level, IMO.

    In spite of all this, today price stayed at or above $0.30 yet again. And the early bids for $0.30 from four(?) different market makers presenting "standard" sizes remained throughout the day. We don't really know the size of that support because the "standard" blocks hide the real volume behind those bids.

    Average trade sizes appear to be stabilizing as the general trend lower has subsided and early moves slightly higher have occurred. Volume is hanging in and daily FINRA-reported short sales continue to trend lower.

    8/10/2012: EOD stuff copied to the APC.
    # Trds: 39, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 90000, Vol 353845, AvTrSz: 9073
    Min. Pr: 0.3024, Max Pr: 0.3100, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3080
    # Buys, Shares: 25 111245, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3087
    # Sells, Shares: 14 242600, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3077
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.18 (31.4% "buys"), DlyShts 82200 (23.2%)

    Using my experimental charts I'm judging that consolidation continues nearing an end. The average short sales continues to drop (10-day average percentage now solidly below the 25-day average and looks to continue to move lower in relation to the 50 and 100-day averages). Meanwhile total trade volume seems to be hovering around the 50 and 100-day averages even as the 10 and 25-day averages are now above the 50-day and 100-day averages and the 50-day is above the 100-day as well.

    The four short sales averages are 20.87%, 26.41%, 25.47%, and 22.20%. The four average daily volume values are 371K, 415K, 305K, and 304K.

    The buy:sell ratio has been deteriorating, which should not be surprising as the Mega-C, Quercus (might be done now) and maybe some Blackrock shares have been released into the market. We know these folks are not price-sensitive and will sell at the bid very frequently. I will say that they seemed to have exhibited a tad more discipline as they are more often waiting for some rise in the bids before hitting it.

    The price has been quite stable since 8/2, staying at or above $0.30 on the low.

    Moreover, average trade sizes are holding fairly steady. This can be misleading as market activities can often take more than one reported trade to fill a given order, there are occasional "lures" and other "outliers". As an example of this last, there were two trades (40K and 90K) far above the rest of the trade sizes. Taking these out would move average trade size to 6,050, roughly 50% below what I reported above. OTOH, there were a few which I could guess were a single trade and could bump the average up a few hundred shares if I combined them.

    Anyway, the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages are at 6,883, 7,598, 6,346, and 5,767 respectively. It should be noted that these numbers are substantially improved from the end of June when they were 4,357, 5,097, 5,131, and 4,698.

    From John's tracking we are fairly certain that Quercus is about exhausted for this quarter and strongly suspect the Mega-C trustee is nearly done as well. I have surmised that the Mega-C shares are at a brokerage that doesn't have ready access to the exchanges for their shares and so sales will appear in daily short sales along with any other folks. There's also always some miscellaneous daily short sales that occur from normal market-maker activities handling orders for brokerage customers. Anyway, I believe the falling short sales strongly support John's assessment that Quercus is done (or very nearly so) and the Mega-C trustee is also nearly done. The wild-card would be Blackrock being in the market.

    I believe what we are seeing supports John's contention about Quercus and the Mega-C trustee and I think confirmation of that will occur when a trend in short sales begins to flatten out and the buy:sell averages improve enough over time to stop the descent of the 10-day average that began the first week in July.

    WARNING! PURE UNADULTERATED OPTIMISM FOLLOWS!

    I believe this reversal will have it's beginnings no later than 8/17 based my expectation of a positive, even if not stellar, quarterly report and positive comments during the conference call.

    8/9/2012: Copied to the APC EOD comments.
    # Trds: 24, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 15000, Vol 99470, AvTrSz: 4145
    Min. Pr: 0.3023, Max Pr: 0.3100, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3068
    # Buys, Shares: 12 52100, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3100
    # Sells, Shares: 12 47370, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3034
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.10:1 (52.4% "buys"), DlyShts 35000 (35.2%)

    Well, yesterday's suggestion that a larger seller is back seems confirmed by today's daily short sales percentage. It's ~74% of today's "sells". In the first two trades we saw the day's high and two more trades at $0.3099. They totaled 36K and there were in the first 12 minutes and the last was at 11:16, all "buys". Then two sells went off, a 700-share trade at $0.3026 and a 10K at $0.3051. Another two buys totaling 3K at $0.31 ended the "bullish" run for the day. That was at 11:57.

    From there forward, it was mostly market-maker "lures" that were buys at $0.399, predominately 100 shares each. They were not all that effective as only another 9.9K went at that price and 2K went at $0.31. The majority of trades were "sells' in the $0.302x-$0.305 range.

    If the short sales are suggestive of Blackrock (shorts caused by the need to convert certificates), I'm surprised that they are in at this price level. It's always possible (more likely?) the Mega-C shares trustee was selling, based on the fact that what we've seen in the past suggests his shares are not held at a broker with an ability to do a fast placement of shares into market-maker portfolios. There's another possibility ...

    I don't know how likely it is but since we've not got a reporting date and conference call announced, it's possible that some retail holders that weren't spooked by a steady, albeit low, price were spooked by fear of a less-than-stellar quarterly report. I've seen similar behavior in other stocks - some even run up until a day or two before the report and then tank going into it. Sometimes it looked like momo players were involved, other times not. One thing for certain here - it's not momo players unless they enjoy "crabbing" sideways.

    In other news, the buy:sell hasn't been this balanced for a while. It looks like we still have a strong cadre of bottom-feeders that see a quite favorable risk-reward scenario here. I am one, but couldn't get filled yesterday as I continue to suffer the market-maker response to All-or-none on my orders. How bad is it? I had a buy price 2/10ths above the best bid for a good part of the day and watched lower prices go by in sufficient quantity to fill my buy order several times over.

    All my experimental chart stuff continues to suggest nearing the end of a trend of consolidation. Volume still falling and trade sizes and prices stable.

    8/8/2012: Copied to APC EOD comments.
    # Trds: 31, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 35000, Vol 235510, AvTrSz: 7597
    Min. Pr: 0.3010, Max Pr: 0.3199, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3067
    # Buys, Shares: 17 82700, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3111
    # Sells, Shares: 14 152810, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3043
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.85 (35.1% "buys"), DlyShts 5100 (2.2%)

    Well, we (I?) thought the larger sellers might be done but at least one seemed to be back, albeit at a much lower volume than what we've seen in the past. I was really surprised the short sales were so low because I was thinking that the Mega-C shares trustee might be done. Since Blackrock is in certificates, the sellers today likely were either retail holders or the Mega-C bankruptcy trustee, unless Blackrock pre-converted some of their stuff. I don't think it was QQuercus, both because of JP's running totals and we didn't see ~1/11th of volume (~21.4K) in the short sales. Short sales seem most likely to be just normal market-maker handling of a miscellaneous sell order from a retail sale and/or "lures".

    The majority of the selling seems to me to not be retailers though. This is because most of the volume occurred mostly in a small block of time and then ended, for the most part. This started and ended at 11:10 when 8 trades comprising 100K shares, all "sells", went off at a VWAP of $0.3026 and included setting the low of the day, which did not occur again. Prior to the (out)burst there were only 3 "sells" (10:22) totaling 25K shares at a VWAP of $0.3104 and subsequent to the (out)burst there were only three more "sells", totaling 27,810 shares at a VWAP of $0.3050.

    In spite of the pressure supplied by that selling, price remained relatively stable in the other trades (including a few potential "lures" by the market-makers) at the VWAP seen above of $0.3111.

    On the experimental charts front, almost everything is "status quo". Volume continues to hover around the recent averages, short sales continues to trend down, price remains tight and in range at >= $0.30, average trade sizes are holding near the upper end of what used to be our "normal" range.

    The only fly in the ointment is the buy:sell ratio continues with near-term weakness, which shouldn't be surprising to anybody. But even that can be interpreted in a positive fashion when considered in conjunction with price activity, daily shorts sales and trade sizes. I'm thinking this is my experimental equivalent of nearing the end of a trend (in this case, consolidation?) with a move in the near future.

    8/7/2012: Copied to APC EOD comments
    # Trds: 25, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 115193, AvTrSz: 4608
    Min. Pr: 0.3100, Max Pr: 0.3199, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3155
    # Buys, Shares: 18 80023, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3161
    # Sells, Shares: 5 33170, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3145
    # Unkn, Shares: 2 2000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3100
    Buy:Sell 2.41:1 (69.5% "buys"), DlyShts 10981 (9.53%)

    Daily short sales are quite close to 1/11th of daily volume, 10,472. Quercus? ISTR that JP thinks they are limited for the rest of this quarter. I see a post by Mister Investor in the concentrator suggests that this should be the last of Quercus for this quarter.

    The numbers and experimental charts continue to suggest that Blackrock is not participating right now and I think that now we can call JP right in suggesting the Mega-C shares trustee has also run out of shares to dump as daily short sales continue to trend lower and volume has been down since 8/2 and AVWP quit falling after 8/3.

    Adding in the falling average trade sizes, suggesting a higher percentage of retail activity rather than large institutional-type activity, and the buy:sell ratio beginning to recover since 8/2 makes me pretty confident that at this level there is no risk of the large sellers coming back in.

    If I see $0.30xx again today I might be persuaded to add some more shares ahead of the quarterly report.

    8/6/2012: Copied to the APC EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 17, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 36000, Vol 164530, AvTrSz: 9678
    Min. Pr: 0.3010, Max Pr: 0.3200, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3095
    # Buys, Shares: 9 86400, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3163
    # Sells, Shares: 7 78030, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3020
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 100, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3075
    Buy:Sell 1.11:1 (52.5% "buy"), DlyShts 15600 (9.5%)

    Only two things of note today. There is a low daily short sale percentage, which might be just normal market-maker handling of sell orders from normal retail activity. However, it could be Quercus as a 10% (1/11th of volume) level would be 14,957 - not far from that 15.6K short volume. We'll have to wait and see if a Form-4 shows up.

    The other things was that we had a 36K trade go at $0.3014 (a "sell") at 12:24:25 and at 13:02 a sequence of three trades (10K @ $0.3016, 16K @ $0.3014 and 10K @ $0.3015) over 15 seconds totaling 36K that averaged to $0.3015. Since both of these were very near the low for the day I think that these might have been shares leaving the Mega-C BK trustee's hands.

    We saw neither a late-morning (the way it happened in the recent past) or late-afternoon (the way it happened Friday) surge of falling asks and/or volume of "sells" hitting the bid. Further, there was a constant display of strong potential support at $0.30 presented by 4 market-makers showing "standard" 5k bids at $0.30 and on showing $0.299. Since they are "standard" block size presentations, we can't really guess how much volume is really behind those display, but since three of them are the PUMU, NITE and FANC market-makers, it could be substantial.

    8/3/2012: Copied to my APC concentrator EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 41 MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 256566, AvTrSz: 6258
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3200, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3040
    # Buys, Shares: 16 55250, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3145
    # Sells, Shares: 25 201316, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3011
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:3.64 (21.5% "buys"), DlyShts 0 (0.00%)

    Notable today is the lack of any FINRA-reported daily shorts sales. As I've noted previously, the percentages have been generally trending lower recently and the 10-day average has crossed below the 25 and 50-day averages and is attacking the 100-day now. For comparison, the 10, 25, 50, and 100 day averages on 7/24 were 35.57%, 29.55%, 27.78%, and 22.64% respectively while today they are 22.99%, 27.07%, 26.56%, and 22.58%.

    We know the Mega-C shares are already at a brokerage. We don't know which one and we don't know if sales from there would flow quickly to market-makers' control or not (resulting in reported short sales). Based on the previous observations we (I?) suspected that the brokerage doesn't have the ability to place the shares with the market-maker at or prior to the sale. Their sell orders would generally result in FINRA-reported shorts.

    We know Blackrock holds certificates that must be converted and will generate short sales when the sell order is executed. Quercus, also in certificates, reports regularly. I believe the zero short sales suggests that BR and Quercus were not in the market today.

    All this suggests several scenarios.

    The big sellers may be taking a break to let price recover some. This seems unlikely as, IIRC, the last time we thought this might be the case it didn't last long or rise much before the sellers were back. It seems more likely, to me, that they are just executing some pre-planned selling sequence and today was one of the days that were not on the schedule. This may account for (some of?) the "choppiness" seen on my charts in the short sales.

    The action may strongly support JP's estimation of the shares held by the big sellers being rapidly depleted. I think this highly likely and, if human nature is what I think it is, as the number of shares to be dumped approaches the end they will be less stringent about price.

    Last, a low percentage could just be shares backing prior sell orders flowing into the market-makers, who might have covered some of their short positions when prices were advantageous. I suspect this behavior is at least a fairly strong component in the trend because of the downward trend in price - MMs sell short in response to sell orders, that pushes price down some small percentage (check the buy:sell trend the last week or so on my experimental charts), the MM covers the shorts at a lower price (profit already in hand then) and the new incoming shares backing prior sell orders are "free" in that they only need to be sold at a price that maintains the profit garnered (or doesn't reduce it much). The MMs may have purchased the incoming shares at a price below the short sale and the covering buy price. No way to know.

    This scenario seems also to be supported by the "choppiness" we've seen in the short sales.

    Note that the recent low of $0.29 on 7/19 was accompanied by a lower short sales percentage following a relatively higher one on 7/18. A similar pattern is seen 7/16-7/17 as price moves downward. This is one of the factors making me think the market-maker portfolio position has a lot to do with what's going on.

    Although I'm loathe to do it, the configuration of today's "bursts" of trades encourages me to examine what the real average trade size might be. Without going into detail, other than noting I considered time proximity, buy or sell and price proximity, I wouldn't be surprised if today's real trades were 31 at an average trade size of 8,276. This would affect the statistics for number of buys and sells and their respective average prices but that seems getting a bit too fine-grained to me, so I won't go there.

    As I suggested previously, this appeared to be an opportunity and folks took advantage as the sellers showed little or no discipline. We opened the day at $0.32, dropped as low as $0.30 by the thirteenth trade (10:27) and struggled to get back to near $0.32 briefly around 13:00 and couldn't hold it, dropping immediately back to $0.31. All of today's larger trades were sells in the $0.30 area. Congrats to those that took advantage.

    8/2/2012: Copied A DAY LATE from my daily APH EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 43, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 70000, Vol 471500, AvTrSz: 10965
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3300, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3157
    # Buys, Shares: 12 188000, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3203
    # Sells, Shares: 31 283500, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3126
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.51 (39.9% "buys"), DlyShts 133000 (28.2%)

    Compare the above with what we looked like through 14:00.

    # Trds: 32, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 31000, Vol 266800, AvTrSz: 8338
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3300, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3139
    # Buys, Shares: 2 8000, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3263
    # Sells, Shares: 30 258800, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3136
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:32.35 (3% "buys"), DlyShts N/A

    Sellers were definitely in again, supported by both daily short volume and the fact that when buyers came back in volume (204.7K, 76.7% of the volume prior to 14:01) price did not move up. Further, Jon Springer's comment says a friend's order was filled below his bid and so fast it didn't appear in the bid/ask on his screen.

    All this fits in with my prior thoughts that sellers would have to take what they could get as I felt that most of the buyers were full up. I don't seriously believe that there are hundreds (or thousands?) more unsated buyers *at these price levels* that will soak up the remaining big-seller shares. Further, if my musings are correct, now that we've approached and hit $0.30, some retail buyers have gotten spooked and are exiting, adding to the selling pressure.

    This is presenting an opportunity now. I've been patiently (with some difficulty, I'll admit) awaiting this situation. Now it's down to timing and how hard do I want to struggle to get an absolute low. Being male, my typical response would be "not *that* hard".

    8/1/2012: Copied to my daily APC EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 28, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 49200, Vol 180429, AvTrSz: 6444
    Min. Pr: 0.3220, Max Pr: 0.3398, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3310
    # Buys, Shares: 8 16190, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3355
    # Sells, Shares: 20 164239, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3306
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:10.14 (9% "buys"), DlyShts 3900 (2.16%)

    Volume and daily short sales continue downward, suggesting that Blackrock and Quercus weren't't in today.

    Both the high and the low price are creeping down while VWAP is creeping a little faster, likely due to the average trade size generally trending down.

    The buy percentage has weakened to the point that the ten and 25-day averages are about to cross below the 50-day average. This is the second lowest since I've been tracking this stuff. The lowest was 6% on 4/10. I hate to say it, but it seems to confirm my statement that buyers were exhausted on 7/31: " Any large sellers left will be , sans marks-maker assistance (which has been in play this last week IMO), will have to take what they can get. Most retail buyers at this time are likely "full up" and some may be biased towards unloading their shares if we see that movement towards $0.30 is likely again".

    7/31/2012: Copied to daily APC EOD comments.
    # Trds: 24, MinTrSz: 350, MaxTrSz: 30000, Vol 119399, AvTrSz: 4975
    Min. Pr: 0.3330, Max Pr: 0.3399, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3344
    # Buys, Shares: 15 56099, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3358
    # Sells, Shares: 9 63300, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3332,
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.13 (47.0% "buys"), DlyShts 26781 (22.4%)

    On my experimental charts, it appears consolidation is going on, and has been for about a week I guess, as daily short sales looks to be trending towards the 50 day average of ~28% while price compression continues. Supporting this, volume continues to fall and average trade size continues to shrink, with the 10, 25, 50 and 100 day averages now sitting at 6908, 6759, 6015, and 5389 respectively. Today's size and these averages are reminiscent of what it used to be before the latest round of "Get out of Dodge" sellers appeared.

    If you look at my experimental charts you'll also see the buy:sell ratio and averages have begun to become more balanced.

    Based on those things I think the increased buying pressure, begun with my "stealth rally", that allowed the sellers to do their dirty deeds without driving price through the floor is ending.

    I anticipate another spell of somewhat flat action until the quarterly report is out. Any large sellers left will be , sans marks-maker assistance (which has been in play this last week IMO), will have to take what they can get. Most retail buyers at this time are likely "full up" and some may be biased towards unloading their shares if we see that movement towards $0.30 is likely again.

    7/30/2012: Copied to daily APC EOD comments.
    # Trds: 40, MinTrSz: 200, MaxTrSz: 35200, Vol 196534, AvTrSz: 4913
    Min. Pr: 0.3221, Max Pr: 0.3400, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3338
    # Buys, Shares: 30 145420, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3347
    # Sells, Shares: 10 51114, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3311
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.85:1(74% "buy"), DlyShts 86700 (44.1%)

    Averages for volume, price, and trade size all trending down. Buy:sell may be flattening or just taking a pause before moving a bit lower. The daily short sales seems, on average, to be moving to flatten out around 28% (the 50-day average). However the 10-day average is still uncertain and higher ATM, running around 32%-33%. A noticeable sustained drop in that average should be a strong clue that the big selling is abated. Right now it looks to be headed that way.

    Nothing notable on the traditional TA front as it's suggesting some sideways trading for a bit. No oscillators are at extremes.

    7/27/2012: Copied to daily EOD comments in the APC.
    # Trds: 27, MinTrSz: 400, MaxTrSz: 64300, Vol 182660, AvTrSz: 6765
    Min. Pr: 0.3350, Max Pr: 0.3450, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3382
    # Buys, Shares: 18 138960, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3383
    # Sells, Shares: 4 23000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3400
    # Unkn, Shares: 5 20700, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3354
    Buy:Sell 3.27:1 (76.1% "buys"), DlyShts 95130 (52.1%)

    It looks like Quercus was in - we had a 16K AH "buy" at $0.335, almost exactly 10% of the volume prior to that trade. Adding the 16K AH trade to FINRA day's volume would lower that short percentage to my calculated percentage, 52.1%. Adding it to the short sales too would increase the FINRA and my calculated percentage to 60.8%.

    I suspect we had at least one other big seller in today, via NITE (market-maker of Night Capital Management I believe) as at 10:11 they jumped ahead of the ask with $0.335/64K after an aggregate 30.6K went @ $0.34/$0.345. Their shares were gobbled up at 11:04 and the initial ask line up seen since the open came back: ARCA, FANC and NITE all 5K *presented* at $0.345. With only standard blocks presented, we can't have any idea of what the real volumes lined up for sale at those market-makers are.

    A word about average trade size and buy:sell seems in order. Since that NITE 64.3K trade (noted in earlier comments in the prior APC) was over 4 times larger than the next largest trade (16K), it seems reasonable to consider what the average trade size is without that trade included - 4,552. Likewise, the effect on buy:sell is also substantial - it moves to 1.76:1 (63.1% "buys"). If I could figure a way to put this in the charts without distorting and corrupting the integrity (maybe adding another line?! Nah! Some charts are hard enough to read already) ... But I do have a long-term plan. Don't know when I'll get to it - probably when I can't track this stuff anymore because the volume gets too high and then it'll be too late to be useful.

    Looking at my experimental charts, I notice that the averages for short sales are still showing a general upward trend. Yes, day-to-day is quite choppy and the zig-zags of late are quite clearly tending down with lower low and high percentages overall. But the "stacking" of the averages still indicates an increasing short sales trend with the daily averages for the 10 higher than the 25 which is higher than the 50 which is higher than the 100. The 10-day has sown some weakness of late but should be ignored for now as the choppiness introduces a lot of "noise" to it. Until the choppiness abates and the 10-day shows a steadier trend I would look more to the 25-day average for confirmation of trends for now.

    This suggests that we still have substantial selling by one or more of our big sellers.

    One piece of optimism can be derived from the movement of the prices into and above the trend lines. If this holds another day or two I believe that the risk of substantial price movement down almost completely disappears. Why? Because this has happened even while substantial selling pressure has been in play and as the pressure disappears there would be little reason for price to move substantially lower.

    7/26/2012: A DAY BEHIND Copied from my APC EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 39, MinTrSz: 300, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 472501, AvTrSz: 12115
    Min. Pr: 0.3300, Max Pr: 0.3450, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3409
    # Buys, Shares: 25 208100, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3431
    # Sells, Shares: 14 264401, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3393
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.27 (44% "buy"), DlyShts 20500 (4.3% including the AH 4,401 which is excluded from FINRA data).

    I'd sure like to know what these few oddball (4,401 shares) AH trades are. I wonder if they might be some folks on the "left coast" getting home after work and doing a trade. Anyway, it set the day's low at $0.33 (Ha! Maybe not such an innocent trade?), without which we had a low of $0.335. A perfectly good 1-penny spread ruined by some surfer dude! ;-))

    7/25/2012: A DAY BEHIND! First part copied from my APC EOD comments.
    # Trds: 33, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 80000, Vol 293175, AvTrSz: 8884
    Min. Pr: 0.3300, Max Pr: 0.3500, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3390
    # Buys, Shares: 23 143263, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3419
    # Sells, Shares: 10 149912, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3362
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:1.05 (48.9% "buy"), DlyShts 23812 (8.1%)

    There's a couple items of note regarding Wednesday's stuff.

    First, we had a pre-market sale of 14K shares at $0.35, a buy. This data doesn't appear in FINRA daily short data. Adding that to FINRA data (not shown in my concentrator comments) will affect my daily summary record in the experimental charts instablog.

    The other thing I want to mention is a cautionary note about the average trade size. We had two trades, both "sells", that skewed the average trade size. This is not unusual, but with the lowered number of trades (33) their effect would be more pronounced. Removing the 80K "sell" at $0.3351 makes the average trade size 6,662, the VWAP $0.3405 and the buy:sell 2:05:1 (67.2%).

    I don't suggest we throw it out, but I do think it offers an indication of a little more buy support. Recall that I suggested it might be weakening and I've not change my thought (yet). But I do think we should consider that it didn't weaken so fast.

    Traditional TA is not suggesting any change ATM. I think we hang in this range a bit.

    7/24/2012

    : Copied to my EOD comments in the concetrator.

    # Trds: 58, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 12500, Vol 273030, AvTrSz: 4707
    Min. Pr: 0.3190, Max Pr: 0.3498, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3334
    # Buys, Shares: 42 190404, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3327
    # Sells, Shares: 15 81986, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3348
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 640, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3425
    Buy:Sell 2.32:1 (69.7% "buy"), DlyShts 97,464 (35.7%)

    Had an AH trade @ $0.32 for 5,566 shares (~2% of day's volume). I'm choosing to assume it's just miscellaneous market-maker action or a real after-hours trade.

    Looking at my experimental charts, I note that, although choppy, the volume has been moving up enough to start affecting the longer-term averages. The 25-day and longer averages have an upward trend.

    It won't be surprising that daily short sales percentages are doing the same. We're pretty certain that one or more big sellers, such as Blockrock, the Mega-C shares bankruptcy trustee, and Quercus, are in the market and we know two are in certificates (causing delays in delivery to the market-maker) and one (Mega-C) might have delivery delays even though the shares are with a broker.

    Average trade sizes has moved back into the lower part of "normal", based on the averages, and the buy:sell ratio is holding up well in light of both larger sellers and higher prices. This apparent conflict (trade sizes reducing back to normal while price moves above the 10-day average and back to near the 25-day average), when combined with the buy:sell ratio generally weakening, may be foretelling a reduction of buying interest. I don't know, but I suspect at least a flattening of price and, if the heavy sellers don't get exhausted soon, even a weakening price.

    7/23/2012: Copied stats to my EOD comments on the concentrator.
    # Trds: 57, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 75000, Vol 425158, AvTrSz: 7459
    Min. Pr: 0.3100, Max Pr: 0.3445, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3304
    # Buys, Shares: 44 253518, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3360
    # Sells, Shares: 13 171640, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3222
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.48:1 (59.6% "buy"), DlyShts 139089 (32.7%)

    7/20/2012: Copied to my EOD comments on the concentrator.
    # Trds: 94, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 58000, Vol 509205, AvTrSz: 5417
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3300, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3179
    # Buys, Shares: 64 368809, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3208
    # Sells, Shares: 30 140396, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3100
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.63:1 (72.4% "buys") DlyShts 250209 (49.1%)

    First an oddity: there was an AH trade of 15K shares at $0.31, above the low and below the VWAP. What makes it odd, to me, is that it is not near 1/11th of the daily volume, as has been the case when we saw trades apparently associated with Quercus selling. If the normal 10% was involved, the size would have been around 46.3K.

    Adding the 15K to FINRA's reported short sales would put the percentage at 52.1%. My figures above already include in total day's volume so only adding to short is needed to see what it would be if FINRA included it as short.

    What does it mean? Can't say. Maybe Quercus had a planned sale at this maximum level regardless of the daily volume? Maybe the market-maker was balancing his portfolio against some early transactions? If/when we see another Form-4, maybe we'll know.

    After yesterday's push down on 743K I was surprised to see a push back up on 509K. My best guess is that folks that had been waiting saw the push go as low as $0.29 briefly yesterday and its subsequent rebound to close at $0.2950 and bought into my feeling that there was little downside risk ... finally! Of course, that's just my ego talking! :-))

    In reality, I suspect that a bigger customer for the market-maker(s) said they wanted to move x number of shares at a minimum price and the market-maker obliged them, as suggested in the paper I've linked in the past from a purported former market-maker that says that when the big customer calls you either deliver or risk losing that business.

    I'm suspicious because the first 10 trades, in the first 4 seconds, were all at $0.30. At the 16th second, out of the blue, a 2K trade at $0.326 goes off and then two more at $0.30 three seconds later. The next trade was at 9:43:31 at $0.3250 and for the rest of the day we stayed mostly at $0.31 or above (there was one trade of 6.5K shares at $0.3077 at 10:18:39). The VWAP from 09:43:31 through the close (ignoring the AH trade) was $0.3196, above the VWAP for the complete day.

    My suspicion may be supported by the short sales today (about 2.5 times yesterdays and above the 10, 25, 50 and 100-day averages of 33.54%, 28.47%, 26.58%, and 22.25% respectively). Note there's been a general trend down since 7/16 though: 72.4%, 28.6%, 54.9%, 13.9%, and today's 49.1%. This might be due to the shares from prior sell orders flowing in or just be a reduced volume of sell orders entering.

    I see two distinct possibilities for this. We know that Blackrock is in certificates and if they were the seller the sales must be flagged as short unless they had been converted, registered and placed with the market-maker or its owning broker already. The other possibility is that the Mega-C shares are at a broker that is not able to transfer shares to a market-maker in advance of the sell order., again requiring marking the sells as short.

    We also have an average trade size which doesn't seem to match up with a strong bullish sentiment. And it's been trending lower since 7/11: 13053 3588, 10968, 9463, 8541, 3810, 10035, and 5417. It might be nothing more that a return to the trend line (see the chart - it's been well above the trend line). We had some very good trade sizes when we were previously stepping down in price from the ~0.33 area. And this is a number that must be viewed with some skepticism since it may be a function of market-makers doing partial fills on orders. But I don't want to wander too far into that soggy ground - it might be hard to extricate myself from the mud later.

    Countering the concern presented by daily short sales and average trade size falling (albeit back to more reasonable levels, using history as the standard) combined with the price which has been trending lower (prior to yesterday's bounce). The buy:sell ratio has remained relatively decent. The downtrend seems to me to be nothing more, so far, than a return from excessive levels seen as price steeping down from 7/9 forwards presented good opportunities to bullish investors that determined downside risk was even better than it had been and were likely concerned that might miss some upside if they waited too long.

    And "Aye! There's the rub". We had enough volume that we may have exhausted those folks and might see things go flat again. We'll have to wait and see.

    So, a higher VWAP price with a large percentage of daily short sales, a 2.6 cent gap up, from the early $0.30 trades, in the 16th second of trading, a sustained higher price throughout the day, ... It all makes me leery that this might just be a bounce off the bottom that can't sustain, also called a "head fake".

    What about some traditional TA? Mixed: some oversold but trying to start a move towards more bullish (ADX, stochastic, Williams %R, momentum,RSI) but all are still weak - it is way too early for then to get established in a trend which might show strength in that direction.

    The most promising indicator is a pattern, not an oscillator, and this pattern has a provided a small headwind along with the potential promise. The last time a very flat sideways pattern ended with a drop (began 6/8) similar to what we've recently seen down to $0.30 lows, we had a two-day bounce up and down that moved us right back to the sideways trading that stabilized 6/19 at $0.33-$0.35. Can we repeat?

    Don't know. We fell longer and a bit further this time and theoretically we should hit resistance at the bottom of the sideways range, ~$0.33. Except for one thing, I would be concerned that we penetrated three support lines (one flat at $0.30, but it was a brief penetration, another rising at about $0.31, but only two touches so it's hard to say it was strong, and a third falling). That one thing is that Friday we bounced back to close above all three lines on reasonable volume. If we can hold above $0.30 for a day or two and at least push on $0.33 during those days with a reasonable buy:sell and other things holding steady or improving, I'll feel more comfortable that we are not headed down again right away. More sideways for a while would be what I would expect in that case.

    It wouldn't take much to push us right back to our prior range of ~$0.33-$0.35. Beyond that right now could be tough even if our heavyweight sellers disappear. I believe this because it seems likely that we've near exhausted new buyers until some catalyst appears. I suspect everyone will be in waiting mode as we approach the quarterly report.

    Either way, the presence of the short sales suggests we've had a further reduction of the shares left to keep the price down with excessive selling pressure.

    7/19/2012

    : EOD stuff copied to daily EOD comments.
    # Trds: 74, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol 742608, AvTrSz: 10035
    Min. Pr: 0.2650, Max Pr: 0.3150, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.2938
    # Buys, Shares: 34 189246, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.2963
    # Sells, Shares: 40 553362, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2930
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:2.92 (25.5% "buys"), DlyShts 103200 (13.9%)

    Well, buy:sell ended much better than I anticipated, likely because the big sellers started pushing each other at the exit gate. At 13:35, we were at 12.4% "buys", approximating 1:8.05. But over the next 17 trades a total of 110,746 shares traded, all as buys, at $0.2939-$0.2950.

    Since we all know what went on, I'll not add anything else here. If there's anything I spot that I think needs some verbiage, I'll post more.

    7/18/2012: EOD stuff copied to daily EOD comments.
    # Trds: 45, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 16380, Vol 171430, AvTrSz: 3810
    Min. Pr: 0.3000, Max Pr: 0.3100, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3039
    # Buys, Shares: 28 113330, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3051
    # Sells, Shares: 17 58100, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3016
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.95:1 (66.1% "buys"), DlyShts 94130 (54.9%)

    In my experimental charts I flipped the buy:sell chart to match my focus - buy percentage. It makes the scale match my commentary with no mental adjustments by the reader to see the buy percentage, which is all I usually mention in my comments.

    Quercus was in today, indicated by an AH trade of 15.5K @ $0.303, about 1/11th of the days volume. Calculated short percentage from FINRA data moves to 54.91%, if include in just the total volume, and to 63.4% if included both there and in short sales. But taking the numbers as FINRA reported would also suggest that about 79K of shares were provided by Blackrock if we presume that Mega-C shares generated no short sales. Either way, that's likely around 94K less left to unload by our big three sellers.

    I suspect the adviser to the Mega-C share trustee might have suggested reducing the pressure a bit as volume dropped off, going below all moving averages today (10, 25, 50 and 100 are 440, 278, 264, and 265 respectively).

    As one might expect in this scenario, price compression continues with a spread of one penny. In traditional TA, this is typical of what we would call consolidation, but in our circumstance I think its just many folks believe this is a great price and, knowing big sellers are a afoot, are being cautious to not artificially push price up when there's a sucker willing to let this stock go at this price.

    OTOH, this next scenario seems most likely as the average trade size is also below all moving averages (10, 25, 50 and 100-day SMAs are 7913, 6065, 5675, and 5120 respectively).

    It could be new retail buyers making cautious entry, being fearful of further substantial downward price pressure. I assume they don't know what we know, that there's a definite horizon out there where the last of the large sellers will be exhausted. As of yesterday John was even suggesting it might occur by the time the quarterly report comes out in mid-August. Without some catalyst or a determination by potentially larger buyers that this is a really great price point, we won't be shed of the large sellers as soon as it was appearing we might be.

    But what if we are shed of them? Pop the champagne cork and dancing in the streets!

    But wait! There's a downside to that! You say "Huh?".

    Yep, that's what I thought you'd say.

    Here's the deal. When the big sellers are gone, volume may drop off a cliff, as will price movement, unless there's a catalyst. Then we'll rotate from whining about the big sellers and other things to just whining about the other things. I think it's important to be mentally prepared for this. An idle mind is the devil's playground and this is when we are most likely to second-guess management's behavior. We'll lose focus on the long-term positives that do seem to exist and get all wimpy! The blues will set in and folks will begin shopping the pharmaceuticals isles at the local Walgreen!

    Why? Well the quarterly report may be quite ho-hum since we already have some good ideas of the revenues and may not get much of a positive surprise. Even what we might consider a positive surprise may not impress analysts or others in the media enough to cause much hype to be generated.

    That leaves a market of mostly small retail investors who get tired of waiting to do the selling to mostly other small retail investors making initial entries or additions to account for the majority of the trading. Most Axionistas won't be releasing many shares I'd think.

    John touched on one aspect of this, but on the flip side when price has started to move up, by warning that we shouldn't be so tightfisted with our shares that we kill the market by causing an unsustainable pop. Without naming it such, this sounds like a second call for my oft-requested slow and steady grind up.

    Anyway, summing up, it's looking like we will see lower and slower volumes for a little bit and price should remain stable for a short while.

    7/17/2012: EOD stuff copied from comments and added notes about additions to header.
    # Trds: 83, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 708896, AvTrSz: 8541
    Min. Pr: 0.2955, Max Pr: 0.3200, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3075
    # Buys, Shares: 51 335112, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3089
    # Sells, Shares: 32 373784, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3062
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell :1.12 (47.3% "buys"), DlyShts 193437 (27.3%).

    One AH trade of 9K at $0.30 at 16:08:49.

    If I see anything worth noting that might not be obvious, I'll post it later or in the morning.

    This has entered my ridiculous price range now and I tried to get an All-or-none 60K buy filled late in the day, but no joy. But I'm not going to settle for any partial fills - I'll get it all or get it none - makes no difference.

    Maybe tomorrow I'll have more sense and just go for half that. Maybe not.

    In the header at the top of this blog, I've added some more links to discussion by folks of the Blackrock, Mega-C and Quercus selling pressure. It starts with On 7/17 John ...

    7/16/2012: Copied to my EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 48, MinTrSz: 288, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol 454228, AvTrSz: 9463
    Min. Pr: 0.3100, Max Pr: 0.3220, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3145
    # Buys, Shares: 35 364603, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3151
    # Sells, Shares: 13 89625, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3119
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 4.07:1 (80.3% "buys"), DlyShts 329088 (72.4%)

    The short sales percentage is the highest I've recorded since 2/6 and the third highest absolute volume of short sales. It suggests to me Blackrock was present since they are still in certificates as far as we know. Even if Quercus was in, their volume should be ~41.3K.

    Regardless, the support by buyers remained strong, as evidenced by reasonable volume, good buy:sell ratio and average trade size. Even backing out the 100K trade, we had an average trade size of 7,380 and a buy:sell of 2.95:1 which is 74.7% "buys".

    John's been tracking an estimated running balance and today's comment early in the day suggests that Blackrock is down to 1.7M+/-. If Quercus is not in to day, we can safely knock off another 300K or so.

    On the experimental charts, nothing of note has changed, except of course the huge short sales percentage. On the traditional TA front, ... "fugedaboudid" - nasty as one would expect when BR and maybe the Mega-C trustee are visiting. These folks are like fish - after three days visiting, they start to stink.

    7/13/2012 Copied from my EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 27, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol 296133, AvTrSz: 10968
    Min. Pr: 0.3125, Max Pr: 0.3260, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3203
    # Buys, Shares: 14 199833, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3206
    # Sells, Shares: 13 96300, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3196
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.08:1 (67.5% "buys"), DlyShts 44000 (14.9%)

    Early action accounted for most of the notable things today. Through 10:03:57 we had the majority of our volume, 260,180 shares, thanks to several larger trades, including 100K, 35K and 50K and a few lesser that I suspect were part of these larger trades. Price ranged from $0.3125-$0.325, starting at the higher range around 9:40 and ending at $0.32 at 10:03.

    These took us through the day's first 17 trades. The rest of the day we had only 10 more trades with prices ranging from $0.3199 to $0.325.

    I think some of the action was the new buyers Albert(?) mentioned might be ready to enter. So I assume this is a one-day phenomenon.

    7/12/2012: Copied, with minor editing, from my EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 25, MinTrSz: 160, MaxTrSz: 16000, Vol 89702, AvTrSz: 3588
    Min. Pr: 0.3220, Max Pr: 0.3420, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3289
    # Buys, Shares: 17 62702, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3317
    # Sells, Shares: 8 27000, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3225
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 2.32:1 (69.9% "buy"), DlyShts 35802 (39.9%)

    There was a 5K "buy" @ $0.3420 just barely before the open, 09:29:38, that will not appear in the FINRA-reported daily volumes. With that, FINRA volumes indicate 42.27% short, higher than what I would report. *IF* that was a short sale, which we don't know, my calculated short percentage using FINRA numbers with the 5K added to both total and short volume, would be 45.5%.

    You can see retail buyers are apparently becoming a bit cautious as the average trade size was below the averages (10, 25, 50, and 100 day averages of 6293, 5543, 5362, and 4950 respectively) and the big seller (Mega-C shares trustee via Night Capital?) was forced to slowly reduce offers throughout the day.

    However, the buy:sell (69.9% "buy") remained strong, above the four averages of 60%, 62%, 57%, and 49%.

    So we closed $0.019 down.

    However, the price drop after the open was big (~2 cents) and did not have significant movement lower during the day. So we closed at $0.3250 - not bad considering we think the Mega-C shares are here.

    All considered, it seems that retail investors are still bullish but perfectly willing and eager to take advantage of *stupid* selling behavior and even back off a bit to see if they can get it become even "stupider".

    If it gets "stupid enough" I, and many others I'm sure, will be gobbling up those "stupid cheap" shares (for me, my dry powder has to be ready for it)

    7/11/2012: Copied from my EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 47, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 51900, Vol 613489, AvTrSz: 13053
    Min. Pr: 0.3220, Max Pr: 0.3444, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3368
    # Buys, Shares: 23 180050, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3332
    # Sells, Shares: 20 406923, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3380
    # Unkn, Shares: 4 26516, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3425
    Buy:Sell 1:2.26 (29.3% "buy), DlyShts 83397 (13.6%)

    A possibly notable configuration on my experimental stuff is that the average daily volumes are configured "almost right": 10 > 25 > 50. Getting the 100 under these will be "right". They are, respectively, 327K, 254K, 246K, and 261K.

    Also, since I think short sales tell us a lot (even beyond John's thought) that we've had three days in a row that percentage has been falling, suggesting ??? I've said a lot on that and so will let it slide here. Anyway: 55.1%, 26.9%, 21.2%, and 13.6%.

    The average trade size is the largest since the start of my experimental charts on 2/6. Next largest is 11,427 on 7/10, then 11,150 on 6/14, 10,538 on 5/30 and 8,950 on 4/26.

    7/10/2012: Copied from my EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 110, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 100000, Vol 1,256,989, AvTrSz: 11427
    Min. Pr: 0.3220, Max Pr: 0.3500, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3340
    # Buys, Shares: 48 321370, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3367
    # Sells, Shares: 61 927119, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3331
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 8500, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3260
    Buy:Sell 1:2.88 (25.6% "buy"), DlyShts 266270 (21.2%)

    As others have noted, it looks like the Mega-C shares are being dumped by the trustee. In spite of that, the large average trade size and the VWAP staying somewhere in the range of the moving averages (10/25/50/100 of 0.3440, 0.3380, 0.3621 and 0.3846 respectively) in spite of the obvious selling pressure suggested by the buy:sell ratio, suggests that buyers were waiting for an opportunity to snap up some shares at a low price.

    John has addressed the likely meaning of the short sales and the volume breakdown more competently than I ever could.

    7/9/2012: Copied from my EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 50, MinTrSz: 385, MaxTrSz: 28000, Vol 315667, AvTrSz: 6313
    Min. Pr: 0.3440, Max Pr: 0.3599, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3487
    # Buys, Shares: 30 151058, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3515
    # Sells, Shares: 15 92739, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3462
    # Unkn, Shares: 5 71870, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3460
    Buy:Sell 1.63:1, DlyShts 84923 (26.9%).

    AH trade of 28K @ $0.3450, likely Quercus since it's 1/11th (~10%) of day's preceding volume).

    Out of time ATM, so I'll just say that the reduced buy:sell, in light of the volume increase, is OK by me since I'm looking for a sustainable grind up rather that an explosive lift-off. Ratios such we had been seeing are not sustainable. We want to see prices rise and begin to pull some sellers in rather than frightening buyers as the sellers rush through the exits screaming "FIRE! (sale)".

    7/6/2012: Copied, with some editing, from my EOD stuff.
    # Trds: 45, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 50000, Vol 392574, AvTrSz: 8724
    Min. Pr: 0.3406, Max Pr: 0.3500, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3489
    # Buys, Shares: 36 311456, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3498
    # Sells, Shares: 8 46118, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3457
    # Unkn, Shares: 1 35000, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.3450
    Buy:Sell 6.75:1 (79.3% "buy"), DlyShts 216160, 55.1%

    A few items of note ...

    1) The low of the day, a single 100 share trade at the bid of $0.3406, went at 10:13:51. I commented at that time wondering why the MM would do that and considered that both scenarios would have lead to lower prices.

    Without that one trade, the day's low is $0.3450.

    Keep in mind the below comments on bad/ask are *at* the time of trades and may not fairly represent what happened between reported trades.

    I'm glad to conclude, erroneously or not, that buying support overwhelmed the MM's ability to move price lower. I took a snapshot of all the trades so I could look at bid/ask at the time of trades and am able to report the ask opened at $0.35, went no lower than $0.348 (12:02 - 2 trades then) and remained at >= $0.349 (usually $0.349x) at all other times in the day.

    The bids opened up at $0.3405 and went no lower than $0.3351 (11:07-11:32, 4 trades @ $0.3499-$0.35, 58K shares). The bid trend was higher, overall, peaking at $0.348 (12:42-14:23).

    Combining the bid, ask, trade prices, volume, ... I believe the market-maker said "not today" and stepped back.

    3) VWAP and the high are *very* close while the low, if that one "lure" is excluded is within 1/2 penny of the high.

    4) The "unknown" trade was an AH trade @ $0.345 that was 9.8% of the volume prior to that trade and I believe this was a Quercus-related trade.

    5) The daily short volume *and* percentage was much higher than recent, percentage was higher than all averages and was the 4th highest since 2/6 (excluding 7/5 - until FINRA fixes their data we don't have that day's numbers).

    Concerning short sales, this has to be a certificate conversion delay if JP's data and thoughts are correct. Manituck Hill has converted to "street name", leaving only Blackrock and Quercus(?) with sufficient certificates to cause this level of short sales. Subtracting the 35K AH trade, because I assume @ 9.8% it was Quercus, that suggests that Blackrock and/or Manituck Hill *may* have sold an aggregate 181,160 shares?

    Why MH? Well, even registered in street name the broker in which the shares are held may not have a captive market-maker or ready access to electronic means of immediate transfer of control of shares to a market-maker. In this scenario, if the shares are not in the market-maker portfolio, the sales *must* be flagged as short sales.

    But the MH registration in street name was 6-3-10 and they still hold 6% (7.2M shares), as far as we know, and we have seen no reason (other than my generally suspicious nature) to think MH would suddenly start selling (although since we always work with incomplete information ...).

    So I think Blackrock unloaded another 181,160 shares today.

    I'll finish my thoughts on the day's action with the note that I believe the average trade size was quite a bit larger than what my spreadsheet shows. There were quite a few temporally close trades at the same prices that summed to nice round block sizes. I won't go further down that road though.

    If you go look at my charts, pay attention to the new buy percentage averages at the bottom - these were the primary reason I mentioned the possibility of "stealth bullishness" a few days back. What reinforced that is two panels above - the averages for trade size have been quietly trending up as well.

    In two days a volume spike will drop out of the 50-day average range and the 10 and 25-day averages will begin moving above the 50-day volume average.

    All combined, a lot of positive divergences there. But if we do have Blackrock ready, willing able and determined to sell at $0.35, price will still be capped. That should be seen as a golden opportunity, IMO, as the apparent stealth bullishness, if continued, bodes well for future prices when Blackrock is done.

    On the traditional TA front, still mixed signals, although a couple of the earlier-leaning oscillators are beginning to reflect the "stealth bullishness" I think I see on my experimental charts. The strongest indicator is the accumulation/distribution over one year. It has risen from ~1.66 on 5.23 to ~3.64 even as price was flat, dipped substantially for a week, and went flat again. So folks a accumulating if this indicator is correct.

    7/5/2012 Copied from my daily comments
    # Trds: 32, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 10000, Vol 103800, AvTrSz: 3244
    Min. Pr: 0.3300, Max Pr: 0.3500, VW Avg. Trade Pr: 0.3461
    # Buys, Shares: 21 64550, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3479
    # Sells, Shares: 11 39250, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.3432
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1.64:1 (62.2% "buys")

    Some things worth noting about today. The $0.33x trades were only 8.5K in the first 26 minutes and all but 1.5K were in the first 3 seconds of the day. Figuring those were sales by retail investors and don't reflect sentiment (as suggested by the rest of the action I'll discuss next), our price range was $0.34-$0.35, very tight as has been the case of late.

    Moreover, if we take them out completely, our buy:sell goes to 2.1:1 (67.7% "buys").

    Is this significant? Could be because it seems to support what was seen during the day (and by my newer charts). Looking at bid/ask only when trades went off, we see the open with asks of $0.35 and never was below $0.3499 (remember, at time of trades *only*) *except for an ask of $0.34 for the four trades from 11:04:34-11:39:07.

    The bids went a different way: they started (before any trades) at $0.33. I saw them move to $0.3301 and finally some trades (at $0.3499) with bids at $0.3302 *after* the 09:56 last $0.33 trade. Then one more time a bid was at $0.34 (trade $0.3499) and bids from 12:22 onward stepped up from $0.3302 to $0.3499 and back to $0.345.

    I'm reading this as two things: sellers with patience and backbone and buyers that have a bullish sentiment and doing their best to be bottom-feeders. But they apparently see little risk and figure this is a good price regardless.

    Had an AH trade at $0.345 for 9.4K shares, almost precisely 10% of the volume prior, 94.4K.

    If this is the price the market-maker gave Quercus, we can count on price starting (or staying?) predominately there or above until those shares are offloaded by the market-maker. But with our VWAP of $0.3462 (without the AH trade), it could be the market-maker just covering what he shorted during the day and his position could be netted out by the DTCC, leaving a neutral position.

    I'll have the new version of my intra-day tracking with the, hopefully, more useful charts up later tonight (I see SA fixed the instablog index problem) which will be much shorter for a while.

    When you get a chance to peek at the new charts I believe you'll see the "stealth bullishness" stuff I mentioned in an earlier comment.

    On the traditional TA front, nothing going on. Still mixed (stochastic trying to convince me it's going to pop), ADX saying down, mot of the other running towards neutral.

    Prognosis for the near-term is no big change. The sellers are "capping" us and the buyers are supporting us as they recognize good value with little relaxation by most of the sellers on price.

    P.S. FINRA data delayed due to their file being wrong: reporting total volume of 33.6K when it was 94.4K on the tape and 103,800 including AH trades, as reported by me, ETrade and ADVFN.

    I've e-mailed them.

    BTW, I took snapshots of the ADVFN and ETrade T&S screens as part of reporting the problem. If anyone wants (to see?) them just holler.

    Disclosure: I am long AXPW.

    Additional disclosure: These are experimental charts examining things not normally considered in traditional TA. My orientation is more to what can be discerned from the mechanical activities of trading action.

    Stocks: AXPW
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Comments (45)
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  • 481086
    , contributor
    Comments (3431) | Send Message
     
    Much admiration here for the charts, and the chartist... I'm dumb with these things, but to me, in the bottom three, I see something not unlike a glacier: The movement is slow, but awesome, barely discernible, yet clear enough to the patient. And unmistakably, it moves in one direction and one direction only. It is not stoppable, until reaching its conclusion...
    7 Jul 2012, 04:11 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » 48: Yes. I especially like how the "sell" in the "buy:sell" chart seems to be establishing its range below trend, as would be suggested by the rising in the "buy" percentages shown in the "Buy Percentage Averages".

     

    Of course, this can't last forever, but it certainly can last until price move to a point that folks want to take profits rather than accumulate.

     

    If I'm reading correctly that most of our buying is smaller retail traders, I think there may be some patience there because these buyers must be investors, not so much traders, since *nothing* would yet be attractive to a momentum or swing trader.

     

    HardToLove
    7 Jul 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • SMaturin
    , contributor
    Comments (2268) | Send Message
     
    It sorta makes my eyes cross. But it shore got some purty colors!

     

    It has what Frank Zappa called "sheer statistical density."

     

    I think I need more coffee....
    8 Jul 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » "But it shore got some purty colors!"

     

    Well, while waiting for a move, we need entertainment.

     

    HardToLove
    10 Jul 2012, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • pascquale
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    I miss having your daily summary/prognostication from the concentrators here where it's easy to find and look over history.
    Thanks for what you're doing!
    12 Jul 2012, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Pascquale: Thank you sir.

     

    I've hit a temporary (hopefully) rough patch on workload. I do plan on getting that stuff back in - just a matter of getting over the hump. I'll do a little back-fill as soon as time permits - hopefully this weekend.

     

    HardToLove
    12 Jul 2012, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    HTL: What awesome detail!

     

    Though I pushed the possibility, or theory, that Mega-C would hold onto their 2,000,000 shares, it seems a strong possibily that they have begun "some" selling. Or, BlackRock decided to up their pace in selling.

     

    The oddity is that after that first day of over 1,000,000 shares, then 700k (?), we seemed to have settled back a bit, volume-wise, and that to me means that Mega-C will not be selling under 32 cents.

     

    MM, NITE, has been "MMing" Axion since forever. Perhaps this is their advice?

     

    Great job, HTL. Simply fantastic.
    15 Jul 2012, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Thanks Maya! Helps keep the desire to continue, knowing it's useful.

     

    We have apparent support for Blackrock sales in the short sales spike seen aperiodically since 6/5 or so and recurring off and on. IIRC, John mentioned that Blackrock was still in certificates and would be a good candidate as the cause of short spikes as delays from conversion in street name occurred.

     

    The Mega-C shares, IIRC, are already in street name and could flow without causing this spike *if* they are at a broker that has ready access to market-makers so the shares can be put in the MM account with a simple keystroke (DTCC has been adding a lot of software enhancements to increase the efficiency of many processes).

     

    The continued reduction in volume since the spike through 7/10 with the VWAP moving to $0.32 would seem to support your thesis about "their advice".

     

    But let's not jump the gun - going into a weekend it may be just less activity accounting for the volume. And we did see early strong buying pressure this Friday - my take is that some folks had predetermined that anywhere in this range was a good price (I'm still of a mind that *anything* below $0.42 is decent) and pulled the trigger. Because they were larger trades, they may have eaten up the selling quota for the day from whomever was pushing shares into the market for the day.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    15 Jul 2012, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    Thanks for providing the detailed analysis. I'm trying to keep track of trading days a lá John, and at the same time keep an eye on any news about sales. IMHO we have to get through the Mega-C shares first - who appear to be willing to settle for a lower price than BR, and then get rid of the BR shares: unless BR is now lowering their asking price, but for some reason think not.
    15 Jul 2012, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    If I assume that Mega-C represents 50% of sales volume since 10 July, then they have sold about 550,000 shares. No basis for that assumption. Hope we have a big volume week. I'm thinking the best time to buy will be sometime about the end of when it appears they are running out of shares. Would then expect run up to .35 for BR to begin their selling again.
    15 Jul 2012, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I would check that 50% - If Blackrock does have certificates that must be converted and they are doing some selling, John's x/2 rule would apply.

     

    So the daily short sales might allow a rough approximation of the Blackrock sales daily with no division required. At some later time the divide by 2 would come into view from a "macro level".

     

    Here's total volume and short sales starting with the 10th.
    1257.0 266.3K
    613.5K 83.4K
    89.7K 35.8K
    296.1K 44.0K

     

    I can go back through Feb 6 if you want a few more days.

     

    BTW, I'd be glad to provide my spreadsheets, or any portion, to you or anyone that might make use of them. I have your e-mail, but anyone else just send me a PM with your e-mail address, what spreadsheet you use and what data you want - whole thing or a subset (we might have to check that I can make it or already have it).

     

    NB: Some have sent initial replies to my offers for other things in the past and not specified the requested information and did not respond to requests for clarification. In these cases I let it slide.

     

    HardToLove
    15 Jul 2012, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    I would make me happy if BR was selling at lower prices and that both BR and Mega-C together are responsible for greater than 50% of sales volume.
    16 Jul 2012, 03:32 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Great. I just ran a bunch of numbers together and added them to the above post and it became too late to edit and so lost them. Too lazy to run them together again. We've been in the doldrums so long I'm almost into Qué Será Será mode. Don't know if have accents correct which compliments well the mood.
    16 Jul 2012, 04:00 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » metro: I wouldn't be surprised if they did account for more than 50%. I suspect this because I think most of the retail holders that wanted to exit based on 1) Feb share issues, 2) Knowing BR was selling, 3) hearing about the Mega-C shares, and 4) seeing price deteriorate, have made their exit. Add in the apparent exhaustion of "flippers", seemingly suggested by the charts' early February through early April price, short sales (flippers had certificates initially?) and volume action.

     

    Then it looks like BR may have entered (again?) around the first week in May, if the start of the increase in short sales (BR has certificates) is believable. Since the daily short sales, on average, has been and currently is well above what we saw mid-April going into mid-May, I think that strongly suggests BR is still in heavy, especially if we consider that apparently Mega-C shares, which are *not* certificates, have entered the market and would be "masking" the short sales strength because of the volume it added over and above BR volume.

     

    With this going on as price continued to deteriorate, until VWAP hit ~$0.30, I think the BR presence is stronger than we might suspect.

     

    All told, I wouldn't be surprised if 70%+ was the figure now.

     

    The Q going forward is at what price will current buyers start selling.

     

    Figuring those doing the buying (note the continued strength in buy:sell) as price deteriorates are likely to hold most of their shares for a longer term, I would guess they would take profits on only a small part of their shares when we start moving towards $0.4x again.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    16 Jul 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • carlosgaviria
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Metro:

     

    Que será (future).
    Saludos
    Carlos.
    16 Jul 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    Thanks for your thoughts, as usual thoughtful, based on facts, and well laid out.
    16 Jul 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    HTL,
    Thanks for your thoughts, as usual thoughtful, based on facts, and well laid out
    16 Jul 2012, 01:49 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    I'm starting to feel like our big volume seller plays a round of golf in the a.m., goes for lunch, and then shows up and sells. He should be here in 90 - 130 minutes...
    18 Jul 2012, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I've noticed that too. I figure they ease in the A.M. to see what they can get and then impatience (with some target date in mind by which time he wants to be done?) sets in later and he sells the rest of today's xxxK target quantity.

     

    SWAG, of course.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jul 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Astute observation that passed by me unnoticed. Was wondering what had happened this morning as was kind of expecting big day.
    18 Jul 2012, 11:58 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    I kind of like to envision our big seller looks dressed a bit like John Daly... keeps me laughing
    http://bit.ly/NWv0ez
    18 Jul 2012, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Obliviously (sic) a man with little concern for image - my kind of man!

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jul 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    His tailor (clothes sponsor) is Loudmouth:
    http://bit.ly/NXiTOj

     

    Check out their sports coats. I'm gonna have me one of those some day - the Pazeltine model. What a great jacket.

     

    I especially like the name of the "Shagedelic Black Sports Coat" Daly is wearing in link below.

     

    http://sbn.to/OaS9bh
    18 Jul 2012, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    I think his garb assimilates and therefore occludes the color of amber beer and pale ale, of which Daly has been known to drink copious amounts.
    18 Jul 2012, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    I'll wear Captain Thunderbolt's for a week if Axion hits $10
    18 Jul 2012, 05:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Metro: I notice he looks rather dour in the photo. Think the jacket is the cause?

     

    :-))

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jul 2012, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    Guess that the magic name for the jacket isn't working for him..
    19 Jul 2012, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    If Axion hits $10, I will wear Captain Thunderbolt's every day - not the same pair of course. After several months I would probably look as happy as John Daly, but at least it would make dressing easier. Imagine a closet full of those, with the appropriate clashing sports coats.

     

    Jon,
    I'm sure you've already named your baby, but rest assured you can change it later in court to Axion - just to provide you and especially your wife with a comforting thought.
    20 Jul 2012, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    The world's youngest Axionista's name is Leo at the moment. He's in the market for a stroller with stop-start technology. He also says he'll let me sleep through the nigt again when Axion hits $5.
    21 Jul 2012, 04:26 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    "He also says he'll let me sleep through the nigt again when Axion hits $5."

     

    :-) Looks like he is getting an early start on conditioning you, Jon.
    21 Jul 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Looks like a movie in the making, "Sleepless in Florida".

     

    HardToLove
    21 Jul 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (11197) | Send Message
     
    Actually, the S&P 500 and DOW are coincidently bouncing typically everyday around 2:00, on down days. I have noticed this pattern for several weeks.

     

    PPT?

     

    But I am paying attention this afternoon, to see if a big Axion "Power dump" happens again.
    18 Jul 2012, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well, a slight difference so far - bids came up closer to meet the ask starting shortly before 14:00. Not large volume in trading though, even though the spread is 1/10th cent.

     

    I *think* the rise in bid and the few trades are some folks cautiously dipping a toe in.

     

    With *presented* bid/ask $0.304/$0.305 10Kx5K, if the seller comes in it won't take much to collapse the price (HAH! Drops a ha-penny - some "collapse"). This fits better with my low downside risk... so far - time will tell.

     

    But there are reasonable *presented* bids lined up at $0.30/$0.301.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jul 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » CORRECTION: I erroneously stated 15K instead of 15.5K for the AH trade. Correcting that changes the possible adjusted short sales percentages to 54.91% and 63.4%.

     

    I'll correct the body text in the next update.

     

    HardToLove
    18 Jul 2012, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • pascquale
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    I like "unadulterated optimism", I hope it's contagious:)
    13 Aug 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LoL! I hope *more* that it's realistic! =>8-O

     

    HardToLove
    13 Aug 2012, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » This comment is in response to a question posed by Iindelco here.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I decided to put it here because my thoughts ran to around 3 pages (big surprise, huh?). Later I'll move it into the header and delete the comment.

     

    ======================...
    SUMMARY: The considerations below, in aggregate, make me think that Axionistas exiting are not a substantial part of the release of shares into the market. I think most of the selling came from “fence-sitters”, “momentum players” and possibly our ever-present “biggie sellers”..

     

    This is, of course, an incomplete picture (jeez - I get so tired of the word "incomplete" in this sort of context) since short sales will also occur on "buys", which would be preferable from the seller's POV.

     

    Warning: the following is based on incomplete information, guesses (SWAGs of course), assumptions, deductions, inductions, reductions, seductions (OOPS!), productions, subductions, ;-) and any other “uctions” we can think of.

     

    Somebody big may not yet be gone unless they "got gone" Friday. This possibility is based on daily short sale volume and other factors I get into later. However, there are some points that suggest the current active crop of big sellers are gone or at least an unusually small percentage of Friday’s action.

     

    But there is an alternate possibility that may account for part of the short sales percentage. To me, it doesn’t strongly point to “Axionistas” exiting.

     

    I believe that “fence-sitters” and/or momentum players combined with any dregs of “biggie sellers” account for the volume of short sales seen Friday.

     

    DETAIL CONSIDERATIONS: First, most Axionistas have shares in street name and *likely* most are with a broker. A fair number of these brokers have ready access to, or run, a market-maker, which may be (slightly, substantially?) less likely to cause short sales when their own clients sell, I think. There are some exceptions, of course.

     

    So my first assumption is that even if “Axionistas” were exiting, the degree of increase in short sales, and another ratio I touch upon later, suggests that much more than “Axionistas” would need to be involved. My guess is the actions of these others would far outweigh any small group of “Axionistas” that might be exiting.

     

    Second, Axionistas are well-versed in the company fundamentals, the potential for the company and markets, the "share overhang" from Mega-C, Special Situations (again!), Quercus, Blackrock (fairly recently) and *possibly* someone like Mannituck Hill. Would “Axionistas” have entered, knowing all this ,only to exit on a price drop from around $0.35-$0.32 to $0.29 (ignore Friday's $0.28 - three whole trades totaling 39,340 shares, 4.2% of volume, below $0.29)? And that’s longer-term – would any that added anywhere around $0.30 exit?

     

    Yes, we know some have dropped out before because they were gracious enough to let us know their thoughts and actions. Some were just not ready to endure the opportunity cost and risk they perceived. Some were acknowledged short-term oriented because of perceived general risk in the markets. With this quarterly report and conference call, I can’t see many “Axionistas” that were remaining from months back, with the new information in hand, exiting.

     

    For consideration of who, other than the biggies, might be selling, I direct your attention to my experimental charts for a couple days prior to the release of quarterly results with special note to the graphed behavior on the 14th and the subsequent days.

     

    Look at the volume that rose substantially in conjunction with a strong bump in trade size and buy:sell on August 14, the time of the quarterly release, and later. What I see suggests a possible combination of “players” entered or increased an Axion position.

     

    The first group includes fence-sitters hoping to break lucky with a good entry for either a short-term profit or a long-term investment along with Axionistas that recognized good value even if price didn’t rocket up.

     

    A second cadre could be momentum players. “What? At this price level you say?”. Yep. I don’t know how likely but we need to remember that Mercy Jimenez informed us some time back that Axion was on the radar of a very active momentum trader that communicated with others of his ilk. And we were informed of a couple of his moves as well.

     

    I believe the majority of those selling *may* include our “traditional” biggies and some from mostly the fence-sitters and/or some momentum players. Does data support this? If we go beyond just looking at the changes in my charts from 8/14 on and think of the player behavior and mechanics of the market, I think so.

     

    I’m surmising that most fence-sitters were likely to take smaller or medium sized positions to reduce risk. Momentum players, if any, would take larger positions, I think, to maximize gain. The average trade size suggests, even with some trades being “broken up” by the market-makers, that there were a lot of larger trades and my conclusion is we must have had some momentum players in. We could, of course, have larger trades from “Axionistas” and fence-sitters. But as I mentioned, I think the former unlikely to sell heavily and the latter to have less substantial positions to exit.

     

    Now, consider “settlement”. Normal is what’s termed “T+3”.. If a trade is made, “delivery” is expected to complete no later than EOD the third day after the trade. And most take this long because it is in the brokers’ interests to hang on to the shares as long as possible, as well as their clients’ cash. That’s the nub of what I think is the cause of the short sales.

     

    If a substantial portion of the shares purchased 8/14 and later (and possibly even a few stragglers purchased earlier, but it would be an inconsequential volume) were sold prior to EOD 8/17, they would be short sales because the purchased shares would not yet have “settled” and made it to the client portfolio, much less a market-maker portfolio.

     

    So, IMO, a “hefty” portion of the selling is from fence-sitters and momentum players and not from “Axionistas” (keeping in mind I don’t believe they would sell so easily).

     

    Your question prompted me to consider, in some detail, an aspect I had not heretofore considered.

     

    I believe sellers having a bias towards "just getting out" or “getting out quick”, for whatever reason, seem most likely to hit the bid much more often than patient folks just reducing risk a bit or taking some profit. These “bid hitters” would include our traditional “biggie sellers”, any momentum players (these types of traders should have tight stop limits to minimize losses) and, to a smaller degree(?), any exiting fence-sitters. And what I present below seems to suggest at least momentum players and maybe one or more of our “biggies”.

     

    There might be some value in considering the daily short sales as a percentage of “sells”. As it turns out, after generating some numbers, there does seem to be value, although I can’t assign a weight to it presently.

     

    Unfortunately, as usual, incomplete information precludes drawing a semi-firm conclusion about this hitting the bid vs. “sells” ratio.

     

    For context, the average daily short as a percentage of "sells" for the months since I started tracking follow. Keep in mind the data begins shortly after the share issuance in February and there was a long period where we were suspecting that “flippers” where in the market.

     

    Feb Avg: 54.68%, min: 0.35%, max: 200.89%
    Mar Avg: 49.86%, min: 0.70%, max: 252.30%
    Apr Avg: 31.50%, min: 0.00%, max: 74.35%
    May Avg: 62.73%, min: 0.00%, max: 398.94%

     

    Then the Mega-C shares entered market? Note the hefty change in both the averages and maximums.

     

    Jun Avg: Avg: 183.48%, min: 5.05%, max: 1607.50%
    Jul Avg: 176.07%, min: 7.75%, max: 1273.20%
    Aug (through 8/16) Avg: 30.32%, min: 0.00%, max: 73.89% (excludes Fri.)

     

    A point of note about August: the numbers seem to support two things that John has suggested – Quercus has stopped selling, for now, and the Mega-C shares may indeed be exhausted. This is supported by the change in August so far as compared to June and July. Moreover, a return to values in the ranges of February through May is seen. This might account for the general trend down in daily short sales which I’ve noted on previous occasions and which can be clearly seen on my experimental charts (eh, *excluding Friday 8/17, of course! :-)).

     

    Friday's relevant stuff was total volume of 935,726 and daily short sales of 582,984 (62.3% short, a *very* high number). This FINRA data does *not* include a pre-market sale (5K @ $0.30). Adding this to short volume, which we don't know is appropriate, would move short percentage to 62.8%.

     

    Anyway, going back to the main theme, Friday, 8/17, the percentage of shorts to "sells" was 393.87%.

     

    YOWZAH! That tells us something (Yep! Doctor, doctor! Help me! I feel another chart attack coming!). It’s more than double the highest monthly average, higher than the maximum of May (prior to the Mega-C shares hitting) and ~13 times the average in August through the 16th (extending context a bit, the last two weeks of July averaged 101.82%).

     

    I believe that “fence-sitters” and/or momentum players combined with any dregs of “biggie sellers” account for the volume of short sales seen Friday.
    ======================...

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2012, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • Jon Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (4073) | Send Message
     
    thanks HTL
    19 Aug 2012, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    Thanks as usual, HTL.

     

    Some WAGs crossing my mind re-Friday's short sales data. ISTM thursday's cc could have triggered a bifurcated market response. Clearly, some AXPW holders decided to bail, most likely in response to the "going concern statement" announcing need for new capital independent of any capacity expansion need. Prior "fence sitters" who have not followed AXPW as closely as axionistas could have easily been attracted to the upbeat thrust of reported increased Q2 sales of PbC's, addition of new auto and locomotive OEM customers, and optimistic outlook for PowerCube/HUB sales. If so, those prior "fence sitters" could well conduct their security transactions through brokers other than the major AXPW MMs.
    19 Aug 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • metroneanderthal
    , contributor
    Comments (1425) | Send Message
     
    According to my spreadsheet, since 10 July there have been 5,387,134 sales, and I already subtracted out Q sales of 720,000. If BR isn't or hasn't been selling, hard to imagine where this volume of sales is coming from. IMHO, just don't think there can be many sellers left at .30 - .35 range.
    19 Aug 2012, 10:39 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » D-Inv: "Clearly, some AXPW holders decided to bail, most likely in response to the "going concern statement" announcing need for new capital independent of any capacity expansion need".

     

    Except for the word "clearly", I agree. If I had to guess, these might be "holders", but unlikely "Axionistas"! :-))

     

    "Clearly", to me, would require either some data supporting that conclusion that is not contra-indicated by the data we do have, or lack of data supporting alternate conclusions.

     

    We don't have the first case (of course - how would we ever acquire it sans public disclosure?), and it *seems* to me that we don't have the second case either - we have some data which *seems* to be indicative of what I conclude.

     

    Of course, "you can't prove a negative" works against us in this case. And we can't prove a positive either here. :-((

     

    But we have an edge, I think, that allows us to place more or less weight on the data we have derived - historical expertise from JP that allows a little more illumination as to interpreting the effects we see. Add in all the thorough discussion, pro and con, and I believe we have a better chance of "getting it right" than most.

     

    The risk is that my interpretation might be biased by this availability. I've tried to avoid that here as you'll note very little reference to discussions of big seller past behavior and I've relied solely on the things I've mentioned combined with what the data presents.

     

    So, "some holders" selling - yes. "Axionistas" - not much. "Others" - a ton.

     

    The predominate factors in this conclusion are the volume & other things in my charts 8/14 and forward and application of my (believed) understanding of market operation and tendencies of various players in the market.

     

    We'll likely never know.

     

    HardToLove
    19 Aug 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4777) | Send Message
     
    "Except for the word "clearly", I agree. If I had to guess, these might be "holders", but unlikely "Axionistas"! :-))"

     

    :-) I don't think we disagree. In saying "some holders" I did not mean to imply some axionistas were sellers but had lurkers and mo-mo players in mind. In choosing "clearly" I meant to tip the hat to aggregate sales volume for the day.
    19 Aug 2012, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2410) | Send Message
     
    What's your take on On Balance Volume, Money Flow, or something similar?

     

    http://bit.ly/QX8M9y

     

    http://bit.ly/NYNgqy
    30 Aug 2012, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Wtb: My *standard* TA charts got so crowded I had to omit some potentially useful mechanically-generated oscillators, OBV being one.

     

    However, I sort of emulate this "manually" by combining accumulation/distribut... ADX and related, volume and averages, MFI.

     

    Those indicators, in aggregate, suggest to me that money is flowing in.

     

    Accum/distribution shows ~+3.74 as of yesterday and has been in a strong uptrend since 8/16 when it was ~2,19. That same date MFI was ~38.47 and is currently ~62.87. ADX is currently running pretty much neutral.

     

    I also check momentum, which was ~1.07 yesterday, up from ~0.938 8/16.

     

    With the nice move up we had from $0.28, these seem pretty decent as we should expect a pause, although I was hoping it wouldn't be seen until the $0.35-$0.37 range. But I guess the percentage gain from that recent low was too much for some to resist.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    30 Aug 2012, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (19388) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » **********************...
    **********************...
    New instablog here
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    The header contains a discussion of daily short sales that may be of interest. The 8/17 post notes some differences from past short spikes that may be of interest.
    **********************...
    **********************...
    10 Sep 2012, 06:17 AM Reply Like
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