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  • Capitulation In Apple -- When? 1 comment
    Nov 7, 2012 2:52 AM | about stocks: AAPL

    For those of you who are into counting periods of downdrafts and ascents in different stocks, here are a few measurements to help you decide if Apple could be near a turnaround a la 5/18/12 low of 522!

    On that occasion we witnessed a sustained trend down starting in April from a high of 644 to a low of 522 over a period of 28 business days, for a nice crush of 18.9%!

    Today we find ourselves in a similar trend starting with a high of 705 on 9/21/12 down to a low of ~575 reached on 11/2/12, and continuing - as of this writing - to 11/6/12 for a period of 30 business days, and who knows if it is stopping there? The drop is 2 days longer but the number is a mere 18.4% to the low of 575 just mentioned. To be almost completely parallel, an 18.9% drop from 705 would yield us 571.75 perhaps by this Friday for a period total of 33 days -- an extra week! Close enough considering the higher number we had to climb down from!

    Could we get the Sherpas to agree to make base camp there from which to attempt another push to the peak?

    PS. One caveat: the May low of 522 was at a p/e of 12.72; and that p/e applied to current earnings would be 561.71!

    Disclosure: I am long AAPL.

    Stocks: AAPL
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    Author’s reply » follow-up note: As of now, 11/9/12, a possible low has been put at 533.72, p/e of 12.08, and a period of 34 days after the September high mentioned above. Note that p/e wise we were more compressed at today's low versus the May 18 low by a factor of 5.04%.. To be followed..
    9 Nov 2012, 09:38 PM Reply Like
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