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The Complete Dividend Plan https://gumroad.com/l/tztM www.Compdivplan.com We do not manage money nor do I gather assets. We investigate and unearth investing opportunities that are outside the mainstream Wall Street universe of stock coverage. We feel investors are done a complete dis-service by... More
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  • 2010 predictions from an average American / Investor 3 comments
    Jan 1, 2010 11:46 AM
    Yes, thats me folks.

    I very much enjoyed reading all the predictions from the array of money managers, etc. that Seeking Alpha asked for submittals. But how about letting the average person submit? Like me? You would be surprised that quite a few average Americans know just as much, if not more, than all the so called "experts" out there, and perhaps may even be a bit less biased in their views simply because they have no conflict of interests (I.E. asset gathering, etc.)

    So without further delay here are an average Americans 10 predictions for 2010:

    1) The stock market trades in a +15%, -15% range all year, with quite a few harrowing months of large declines and large rises, simply because no one is sure if the economy is getting better or the problems are really just masked for now.

    However:

    2) The stock market ends down about 8-12% as the expected re-emergence the of the investor class never materializes. The Federal Reserve, while able to support the stock market in 2009 with the help of it's partner banks, decides in this area to start drastically shrinking it's balance sheet, thus draining liquidity from that part of the system that was used to put money to work in the stock market.
    Individual investors never materialize to pick up the slack. They are still much to shell shocked about this past decades stock performance.

    3) Corporate bonds remain somewhat stable, again because no one is sure what the economy is really doing. High yield and investment grade provide decent total return, while Treasuries end the year down, both in anticipation of the Fed tightening and the actual tightening of the Fed Funds Rate that occurs in late 2010.

    3) The housing market, after an initial 9 month swoon, finally begins to start healing as the final bulk of sub-prime and adjustable rate mortgages finally reset. All goes smoothly thanks to number four on my list. Foreclosures keep increasing at a fast clip, and banks finally decide to let houses go and absorb the losses once and for all.

    4) The Federal Reserve continues to buy MBS and other financial obligations in order to keep mortgage rates low until after the final big wave of sub-prime resets take place during the first half of the year. This is the one area of the Fed's balance sheet that grows through 2010.

    5) The Federal Reserve holds the Fed Funds Rate at its current level until the very end of 2010.

    6) The unemployment rate improves to about 8% unemployment, though most jobs "created" during 2010 are of the lowest quality. Those who have been out of work for 18 months or longer finally relent and accept a job anywhere, regardless if it means working at the nations already largest employer, WalMart for $8.50 an hour.

    7) The mood of the country remains very negative until a major event in the early fall awakens the people of this country from their slumber. One or more government agencies, either the F.B.I. or Justice Department, etc, finally steps forward and assumes a real leadership role in the country by announcing indictments of certain members of Congress for their flagrant abuse of power and under the table dealings. The indictment shocks the Congress and panics it's members, who then turn on each other in tandem. The end result will be multiple guilty pleas by 2011 (at least 15-20), and the beginning of the "righting of the ship" by where Congress for the first time in decades remembers that it was "hired" for the people, to serve the people.
    The people of America wake up and realize that after all these years, both the Republican and Democratic party have been engaged in a campaign of "hate the other party" in order to keep Americans distracted from the real problems facing the country. This results in the majority of the population retaining their allegiance to their party's but more importantly coming together and seeing through the hate constantly propagated by the main stream government controlled media. Employing a child, two years out of college, putting him/her on television and calling them a "strategist" for a party, no longer is in vogue.

    8) Emerging markets take a well needed breather and correction of 10-15% occurs in all the major emerging markets. 

    9) Emerging markets, even with a 10-15% correction continue to attract the most cash from smart investors as it becomes clear that the US., though beginning to see the light in terms of the mistakes it has made, will not be the driver of the world's growth going forward.
    Peter Schiff, though too extreme in many predictions he made leading up to 2008, will be right about one thing: The US. is, for the foreseeable future, is not the engine that will drive world growth, but the caboose.

    This scenario will change in the future, but in the near term decades, as the US.continues to work off the massive, irresponsible actions of the previous two decades, the US. will lag the rest of the world.

    10) With the continuing decline of the mom and pop investor class comes the final bell for CNBC. After two full decades of deception and promotion of stocks at the expense of average Americans, the network sees the lowest point it can possible see in terms of respect, ratings, and accountability. The new owners of CNBC, Comcast, decide it is time to clean up and bring accountability and respectability back to the network.

    The majority of anchors, and reporters who did nothing to warn investors about any of the two major catastrophes both in 2000 and 2008 are outright fired. The new CNBC / Comcast mantra will be "There will be no more flagrant stock market hyping or opinions from those who have no business, authority, nor money management experience to do so."

    Thus the Kudlow Report is the first show to be abruptly cancelled in the early spring and it is made clear to Mr. Kudlow by the new owners of CNBC that he is never welcome back, even as a guest.

    Programs such as Mad Money and Fast Money are both cancelled, as the network remakes its image away from an image of a gambling network masquerading as financial news programs, to an image of providing real financial news and asking the hard hitting questions that need to be asked. This turn around prompts even the most harsh critics to praise CNBC and with that viewership begins to improve before the end of 2010.

    Well folks those are my predictions from an average American.

    A happy, health and save New Year to all in 2010!!!


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    Disclosure: No disclosures
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Comments (3)
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  • ok.......December 2010 S&P 500 around 1000...and 8% unemployment....Iwe
    shall see....
    2 Jan 2010, 10:23 AM Reply Like
  • I wish #7 would occur but I doubt it. The banksters are in full control and actually seem more powerful than ever after the 2008 crisis. The only solution is to leave the country and escape police state America.
    7 Jan 2010, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • Where would you go?
    29 Aug 2010, 01:09 AM Reply Like
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