George Simone's  Instablog

George Simone
Send Message
I'm a long-time Market Participant who has criss-crossed the Market for more years than I care to remember, and a few years ago I got hooked on studying and trading ETFs, especially the leveraged kind. Charts, good charts are an absolute necessity in this field, so the Linchpin of my ETF Website... More
My company:
ETF Advantage Report
My blog:
ETF Advantage Report
  • IS IT CEILING OR FLOOR FOR THE MARKET? 0 comments
    May 5, 2014 11:30 AM

    Having gone up, down and sideways since early March, Wall Street remains stuck in neutral. Despite surges to the upside and selling squalls to the downside the benchmark DOW and S&P 500 remain little changed so far this year, even though the market has acted like a yoyo from one week to the next. That makes for a slow grind sideways within a trading range to nowhere.

    As ambivalent markets go, they don't come anymore inconclusive than this one, which begs the question "is this a ceiling or a floor" for the market? It sure looks like this market is coiled like a spring, ready to snap one way or another.

    As the bears in this game have it, this spring will snap to the downside someday soon and this is why to "sell this May and go away" is the appropriate strategy to use. They point to the S&P 500 index and claim that this thing shows similar moves as it did in 2011 when it corrected 20 points. Now the market finds itself in a similar scenario and that's why it is high time to get into cash and out of this game.

    The bulls, of course, see it differently. Sure, they are "mooing" the blues these days because the market is struggling to regain momentum to the upside, even though the economy is gearing up to a higher rate of growth as consumer spending and industrial production appear to be building a head of steam.

    This is wetting market participants' risk-appetite for the economic sensitive cyclical sectors of the market like consumer discretionary, energy and materials. Not only that, but for the first time in a long while corporate revenue is outpacing corporate profits which is a bullish development for the economy and the markets.

    In recent past, profit growth was achieved through cost cutting and down-sizing. But now corporate profits are coming back through investments in plants, mergers, acquisitions and general productivity incentives. The right kind of stuff that the market likes to feed on.

    O.K. - while things in the economy and the markets are shaping up to be bullish - where are the bulls? For this check this Troika and note that while the two bull-components [RSP] and [SOXL] have been moving sideways since early March, their respective Moving-Average configurations [green line below the red] remained bullish.

    But now it appears that the respective green MA lines are beginning to rise above the red lines, and that would be bearish for the market. But what makes it so confusing is that during the past two weeks the bulls as reflected by the MACD momentum bars are returning, while the their respective RSI strength indicators are back in bullish territories, and that of course is bullish for the market. So which is which?

    If the green MA lines continue to slide above the red, then even the return of the bulls won't prevent the market from taking a deep nosedive. But if these MA lines can manage a bullish configuration with the green below the red, count on the market to be up and away.

    Meanwhile the bear-component of this Troika [SPXS] still sports a negative MA lines configuration [green line above the red] while its MACD momentum bars and its RSI strength indicator remain somewhat in their respective bearish territories, which of course is bullish for the market. But note that the gap between the bear's green and red MA lines configuration is narrowing. Should the green line slip decisively below the red, expect the bear to come charging out of the pit and claw the market down. (click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)

    For an economic sensitive rally to succeed the cyclicals [CYC] have to be out front. Note that the MA lines configuration for the cyclicals [green line below the red] remains bullish and so is its RSI strength indicator. But where are the bulls or the bears, for that matter, as the MACD momentum bars have become totally neutral to either side.

    If there ever was a "nail-biting" decision time - this is it.

    (click to enlarge)

    The NASDAQ market [NDX] is also totally confusing. With its MACD momentum bars strongly in bullish territory it signals that the bulls are about to come charging in. But with its MA lines configuration exceedingly bearish [green line with a big gap above the red line] the bears are in a good position to claw the market down.

    So, which of these two will win this one?

    (click to enlarge)

    Even though this commodity market's index [CRB] is still in a funk, its MA lines configuration remains solidly bullish, which means that any sell-offs at this stage, are selective buying opportunities. Problem is that the MACD momentum bars have slipped south of the demarcation line, and that is bearish for the bulls.

    (click to enlarge)

    This market forecasting junk-bond canary is playing chicken. While its MA lines configuration [green line below the red] keeps projecting strongly bullish markets ahead and ditto for the RSI strength indicator, its MACD momentum bars are sitting totally neutral on the demarcation line. That means that neither bulls nor bears have the strength to push the market decisively in either direction, and so it will just keep on zigzagging sideways for a while longer.

    (click to enlarge)

    Gold [GOLD] appears to be consolidating while moving sideways. Its MACD momentum bars are totally neutral, which means that neither bulls nor bears are in control of the yellow metal, and Ditto for the RSI strength indicator. But when you check gold's MA lines configuration [green line above the red] you'll note that it remains extremely bearish. This adds to the confusion in all the markets, which makes the sidelines very attractive.

    (click to enlarge)

    Oil [WTIC] appears to be still in a selloff mode despite of its strongly bullish MA lines configuration [green line below the red.] But check the RSI strength indicator and note that it remains solidly in bearish territory. So are its MACD momentum bars, and for as long as that is the case, the price of crude will be biased to the downside.

    (click to enlarge)

    Put all of the above and recent blogs together, and it appears that selling this May and going away may not be such a bad idea. Wall Street has gone without a ten percent correction much longer than usual and therefore a decent size correction is overdue.

    And yet, with most of the major indexes confused and neither bullish nor bearish yes, sell this May, but to go away? No way!

    Because the odds are on the side of the bulls, smart money is sitting with cash at the sidelines, waiting for the best bullish set-ups to come their way.

    Meanwhile, keep track of these as well as previous blogs' ETFs in case the market comes your way.

    Leveraged Bull-ETFs:

    Energy 3x (NYSEARCA:ERX), Nat-Gas 3x (NYSEARCA:GASL), Oil & Gas 2x (NYSEARCA:DIG), Gold Miners 3x (NYSEARCA:NUGT), Jr. Gold Miners 3x (NYSEARCA:JNUG), S&P 500 3x (NYSEARCA:SPXL), Mid Caps 3x (NYSEARCA:MIDU), DOW 30, 2x (NYSEARCA:DDM), Financials 3x (NYSEARCA:FAS), NASDAQ 2x (NYSEARCA:QLD), Small Caps 3x (NYSEARCA:TNA), Developed Markets 3x (NYSEARCA:DZK), Semis 3x (NYSEARCA:SOXL).

    Non-Leveraged Long ETFs:

    Energy (NYSEARCA:XLE), Discretionary (NYSEARCA:VCR), Retail (NYSEARCA:XRT), Materials (NYSEARCA:XLB), Jr. Gold Miners (NYSEARCA:GDXJ), Industrials (NYSEARCA:IYJ), Semis (NASDAQ:SOXX), Financials (NYSEARCA:IYF), Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWN), NASDAQ (NASDAQ:QQQ), Transports (NYSEARCA:XTN), Oil Services (NYSEARCA:OIH), Regional Banking (NYSEARCA:KRE).

    Leveraged-Bear ETFs:

    Biotech 2x (NASDAQ:BIS), Health Care 2x (NYSEARCA:RXD), Russell 2x (NYSEARCA:SKK), Emerging Markets (3x EDZ), (Nat-Gas 3x (NYSEARCA:DGAZ), Mid Caps 2x (NYSEARCA:MZZ), Oil 2x (NYSEARCA:DTO), Small Caps 3x (NYSEARCA:TZA), NASDAQ 2x (NYSEARCA:QID), Technology 2x (NYSEARCA:REW), Financials 3x (NYSEARCA:FAZ), DOW 30, 2x (NYSEARCA:DXD), Mid Caps 3x (NYSEARCA:MIDZ), S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPXS), Energy 3x (NYSEARCA:ERY), Oil & Gas 2x (NYSEARCA:DUG), NASDAQ 2x (NASDAQ:SQQQ).

    Non-leveraged Short ETFs:

    Emerging Markets (NYSEARCA:EUM), Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:RWM), Financials (NYSEARCA:SEF), NASDAQ (NYSEARCA:PSQ), Mid Caps (NYSEARCA:MYY), S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SH), DOW 30 (NYSEARCA:DOG), Equity Bear (NYSEARCA:HDGE), Small Caps (NYSEARCA:SBB), Oil & Gas (NYSEARCA:DDG), EAFE (NYSEARCA:EFZ).

    GOOD LUCK!

Back To George Simone's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Most Commented
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.