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Bill James
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Bill received a BS in 1972 from West Point with concentrations in math, physics, chemistry, and engineering. He was an NCAA All American Wrestler and captain of the wrestling team. He is an eight-year infantry veteran, Airborne, Ranger, Arctic Light and Mechanized Infantry in the United States... More
My company:
JPods, Inc.
My blog:
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  • Job Recovery Prevented by Peak Oil 2 comments
    Dec 18, 2009 1:37 AM | about stocks: PKX
    Job recovery is prevented by Peak Oil but is possible if:
    • Transport is re-tooled so efficiencies approaches that of long haul freight rail, 400 ton-miles per gallon.
    • Power generation is re-tooled so net energy exceeds 25:1 (energy produced to energy required to get the energy)
    Disposable income per family can be increased by $5,000 per year if power and transport infrastructures are de-monopolized similar to how communications infrastructure was de-monopolized in 1984.  Innovation is needed.  Neither politicians nor bureaucrats file patents, yet they are designing and controlling innovation, or more correctly, the lack of it.

    Decay of Economic Momentum:
    Between 2002 and 2006 working class families in the US lost $2,000 of disposable income as the cost of energy increased:
    Loss of Disposable Income as Gasoline Prices Rise

    • Without disposable income, consumers cannot consume.  
    • Without disposable income, more and more families fail to maintain their mortgages; housing values and the banking system collapsed. 
    • Without disposable income, there are fewer and fewer customers forcing businesses to ratchet down employment. 
    If 1929 and 2008 are similar shocks, unemployment will continue to spiral downward:
    Unemployment Momentum

    Peak Oil is the Cause
    The economic paradigm of GDP growth based on Oil Production Growth is broken.
    Disposable Energy, disposable income

    GDP Growth and jobs growth will never again come from oil supply growth.

    In 2005 oil was $45 a barrel and world production was at 74 million barrels a day.  By 2008 oil was at $145 a barrel and production remained at 74 million barrels a day.  Oil suppliers did not increase production to take advantage of increased price because they could not, the world reached Peak Oil, the maximum rate that oil can be extracted.
    World Crude Production

    There still plenty of oil but the rate it can be extracted and new fields developed have fallen below the rate existing fields are depleting.  Peak Oil is not about the amount of oil but the size of the spigot.  The size of the spigot is shrinking. 

    Re-tooling Power Generation
    Net energy is also declining.  Jobs depend on a net energy of 25:1. Chris Martensen does a great job explaining net energy, these Energy Cliff graphs are from his presentation:
    Oil Energy Cliff

    This quality of output versus input will add to the crisis of oil supply and price.  In the following graph the Blue area identifies the total amount of oil available but the Gray area indicates the net oil energy available to power the economy.
    Net Oil to Power the Economy

    Both solar and wind have Net Energies sufficient to create a jobs recovery.  If biofuels can be improved to provide even 20:1 return on energy invested, they can be a major aid in transitioning to sustainable infrastructure. But at their current 1.1:1 or even 3:1 ratio, they just add to food prices.
    Energy Cliff, Renewables

    Re-tooling Transportation
    Most of us have ridden in an airplane, few of us purchased an airplane.  We enjoyed the service without a capital penalty at a low cost to use.  The same is true for ground transport in New York City where families have an extra $2,500 of disposable income because transportation is available as a service.  It is practical to deploy Personal Rapid Transit (PRT or PodCars) in most cities and towns.  It is practical to achieve twice the density of NYC or 70% access, resulting in an extra $5,000 per year per family of disposable income.
    Disposable Income Increase
    PRT is the solution to the 1973 Oil Embargo identified by the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, study PB-244854.  The PRT network built at Morgantown, WV has delivered 110 million injury-free passenger miles.  With capital costs of $4-30 million per mile and energy required to operate a 85% less than cars/trains/buses, modern versions of PRT are being deployed around the world: As these networks deploy, expect steel, copper, gold, silver, aluminum, plastics, wood and other commodities that can be applied to their construction to jump in price.  They will create demand for solar and wind collectors that exceeds current world capacity by at least an order of magnitude.

    JPods version of PRT operate at about 260 mpg and uses the distributed nature of the networks to harvest distributed energy sources.  Ten times transport efficiency gains are reinforced by 25:1 power collection (Disclosure, author is the founder of JPods, Inc.).
    JPods Networks combine energy collection with high efficiency transport.

    To understand the nature of this paradigm shift five books are recommended:
    • The Black Swan, uncertainty and rare events.
    • Nothing Like It in the World, how the transcontinental railroads were built.
    • The Tipping Point, how things cascade.
    • Outliers, who makes things cascade.
    • The Wisdom of Crowds, why free markets and democracies work.
    Disclosure: Author is the founder of JPods, Inc.
    Stocks: PKX
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Comments (2)
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  • Nicholas Pardini
    , contributor
    Comments (423) | Send Message
     
    PRT is an interesting concept, but unless there is vast movement of people back into inner cities from suburbs (and that the cost of housing downtown does rise proportionately with reduced energy costs), I do not see how this can work. Will a rail way be connected to every house or apt building?
    31 Jul 2011, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • Bill James
    , contributor
    Comments (256) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The Internet was not built everywhere at once, neither will JPods. JPods networks will start in niches where cars are inconvenient. Airport economic communities and similar areas where there are many shuttle vans have a 1 to 3 year payback. The ROI will drive expansion where profitable.
    1 Aug 2011, 08:37 AM Reply Like
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