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Josef Schuster
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Josef Schuster is the founder of IPOX Schuster LLC, a data driven financial technology firm specializing in Financial Products Design related to global IPOs and spin-offs (www.ipoxschuster.com). Our philosophy involves the classification of global IPOs ans spin-offs as a separate asset class.... More
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  • The IPOX Week (11/19/12): IPOX Outperformance Reaches Highest In 2012 !!! 0 comments
    Nov 26, 2012 4:35 PM

    Weekly Summary:

     

     

    ·
    · IPOX U.S. leads IPOX Global to massive weekly relative gain: Continued uncertainty regarding the U.S. Fiscal cliff, option expiration effects or continued relative weakness in U.S. technology pressured the main benchmarks for another week, with select IPOX Strategies seemingly insulated. On the global level, the IPOX Global 50 (IPGL50) fell just -0.19% to +15.37% YTD, with the YTD spreads vs. the MSCI World (MXWD) rising by +164 bps to +941 bps, the highest YTD 2012. Relative strength was driven a big week in U.S. social networker Facebook Inc. (FB: +22.65%) after fears of a meltdown in prices following the expiration of another massive lock-up met with hedge funds revealing large stakes in the company. On the global level, strength amongst other key IPOX holdings including energy firm USDbn 119.4 Ecopetrol (EC: +2.47%), Macau-domiciled casino operator Sands China (1928 HK: +2.82) and Japans Financial Dai-Ichi Life (8750 JT: +9.28%) supported. In the cross-section of the IPOX Strategies universe, the IPOX U.S. 30 (IPXT) and IPOX U.S. 100 (ETF: FPX) traded virtually uncorrelated to the major benchmarks: For example, the IPOX U.S. 30 (IPXT), which tracks the performance of the largest, best performing and most liquid U.S. IPOs and spin-offs over the past four years, rose +0.53% to +17.88% YTD, extending the relative YTD gains vs. the S&P 500 (SPX), Russell 2000 (RUT) or NASDAQ 100 (NDX) by a massive +198 bps to +975 bps. (SPX), +289 bps. to +1311 bps. (RUT) or +246 bps. to +663 bps. (NDX), all new highs. Apart from big action in IPOX top stock Facebook , S&P 500 candidate General Motors (GM: -4.75%) continued to lose momentum, US hospital operator HCA Holdings (HCA: -6.50%) slumped and discount retailer Dollar General (DG: +3.64%) rose despite weakness in behemoth USD 228.7bn Wal-Mart Stores (WMT: -5.92%).

    · IPOX Strategy Returns YTD 2012:

    Ticker (BBG/Reuters)WeekQ3 12YTD 12
    IPOX Global 50 (IPGL50) (USD)-0.19%+7.31%+15.37%
    MSCI World (MXWD)-1.83%+6.24%+5.96%
    IPOX U.S. 100 (IPXO)-0.15%+7.09%+18.58%
    IPOX U.S. 30 (IPXT)+0.53%+5.39%+17.88%
    S&P 500 (SPX)-1.45%+5.76%+8.13%
    IPOX Europe50 (IPXUJPEU) (EUR)-2.92%+11.75%+1.49%
    IPOX Europe30 (IXTE) (EUR)-3.14%+11.76%-3.13%
    STOXX 50 (SX5P) (EUR)-2.97%+5.76%+3.26%
    IPOX Asia-Pacific 30 (IPTA)-2.04%+6.82%+22.31%
    MSCI Asia-Pacific (MXPC)-0.68%+2.56%+3.08%
    IPOX China 20 (CNI)-2.05%-1.96%+4.28%
    IPOX China Cp. (IPXUCHCP)-1.12%+3.18%+8.07%
    Hang Seng Enprs. (HSCEI)-2.03%+2.68%+3.08%

     

    Why choose IPOX to close the IPO/spin-off asset allocation gap?
    § Proven: Real-time performance over market cycles

    § Scalable and Stable: Clearly defined Philosophy

    § Patented: Portfolio Construction Technology

    § Best in Practice: Investment Management Mandates

    All other IPOX Strategies (IPOX Europe, IPOX Asia-Pacific, IPOX China) traded lower or in line with the benchmarks: For example, the IPOX Asia-Pacific 30 (IPTA) fell by -136 bps. vs. the MSCI Asia-Pacific (MXPC). While the broad TOPIX (TPX: +2.82%) rose, select Japanese IPOX members including snack-food producer and MSCI Japan inclusion Calbee (2229 JT: -4.36%) or pharma stock Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP: -1.76%) weakened. The IPOX Europe (IXTE, IPXUJPEU) and IPOX China (CNI, IPXUCHCP) traded broadly in line with the benchmarks.

    · Upcoming global IPOs (Week: 11/19/2012):

    CompanyCodeDateLead
    Alon USA PartnersALDW US11/19CITI, CS
    Hudson's Bay CoHBC CN11/19BMO, ML
    YY IncYY US11/20CITI, DB
    CIFI Holdings Group884 HK11/23BOCOM, CITI

    Amid a shortened U.S. trading week, a number of IPOs are set to debut: Amongst the notable deals is dividend play Hudson's Bay Co. (HBC CN), the key Canadian/US department store operator which seeks to raise around USD 400m on the TSE, valuing the firm at USDbn 2.6. Chinese social media firm YY Inc. (YY US) is the first IPO of a Chinese firm in the U.S. since March 23 and seeks to raise up to USD 100m at a total firm value between USDm 559-665 or a steep 11-13 times 2012 expected revenue. The previous two Chinese IPOs in the U.S. have traded decidedly mixed over the short term: Since 10/1, e.g., while brand name China e-tailer VIP Shop (VIPS US) has surged by +52.13%, HK consultancy Acquity Group (AQ US) has slumped by -32.38%. Ahead of the expected IPO of PICC in December, Shanghai-based property developer CIFI Holdings (884 HK) followed many other 2012 HSE IPOs by pricing at the bottom of the indicative range: The company eventually raised USDm 215 for 21.75% of total equity.

    Despite U.S. holiday week, global IPOs set to price.

    IPOX Returns, IPOs Priced and Upcoming:

    · Key IPOX Strategies fall just slightly: IPOX U.S. 30 (IPXT) rises, IPOX U.S. and IPOX Global outperformance rises to highest YTD 2012.

    · IPOX heavyweight social networker Facebook (FB) reverses course again, surges.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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