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jackryanjr
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classic charts, momentum, and lover of the thrill. First introduced to equities trading the normal way - at the same time I was being taught to handicap horses. Although I liked horses, by the time I was old enough to see over the counter & buy a parlay, I wasn't at all interested. I learned... More
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  • Apple Is Pricing For Excitement With The Split! 2 comments
    Apr 23, 2014 11:57 PM | about stocks: AAPL

    How about at $565!

    Too many have made a living on the weekly short call for so long, the only way out was drastic action on Apples part. It wasn't another great product, which will come in droves over the next 24 months, rather it was the radical concept of returning Apple to the days when eager, hip, younger investors could buy a share of apple for less than $100.

    Don't underestimate the psychology of this move. It is brilliant. With the stock at hundreds for years, only the big players were able to play, and they held the stock price with option straddles, constant bear articles to help the options market, and eventually seemingly convinced smart people that Apple was doing nothing to innovate. (They were/are to a degree that is bewildering in the NOW climate - as some ideas like sapphire will only really become evocative in the future, and after lots of product use and refinement.)

    Now, we'll have anticipation of the split, a huge reveal of new products, US demand for iPhone 6, a paradigm shift in computational power in an iPad/tablet, and a stock price that seems so low that retail investors will jump on the bandwagon so fast it will feel like 2000-2012. I remember the days when I traded Apple between $80 & $130 multiple times over half a year. It feels as though one day it went for $180 and became too expensive for me at the time.

    I've owned Apple through both splits post Y2K. The after-effect of the second was enormous price growth. I'm guessing from memory that apple split 2 for 1 early in the 2005 at about $36 to double $18, and almost immediately was trading the split at $36. I doubled my money in a few weeks. $75-100 feels pretty close to the $36 of 2005, and I believe it is likely to produce the same exuberance for the same reasons in 2014.

    The split will come around the June Conference, followed by or including new product releases, followed by a "one more thing" announcement, followed by more of the same in September & October.

    You are going to see MANY MANY people turn back into the hated fanboys, with investors all too happy to iWatch the infused energy run the $90 split shares to $120 or $130 just because they feel so cheap.

    I honestly believe this is coming. Money is going to be more expensive per the FED departure from QE, and risk aversion to biotech and HFT will continue to push people to rock solid Apple - now with it's MOJO back in hand.

    Of course - If I am wrong - it will likely be that apple is at $200 post split based on the same newfound excitement and products - nothing more. If this seems ridiculous, it's just as ridiculous Apple has rotted for so long at an 8-12 PE.

    I'm not saying this is technically correct - but prices these days make no sense from GOOG to TSLA - so there's no reason Apple cannot trade healthily at the same 18-20 PE most of the sector does.

    Disclosure: I am long AAPL.

    Additional disclosure: I have owned AAPL from the beginning. Through the terrible years, my actual certificate sat in a drawer. Through the need to have professional design workstations for my business, I was convinced to buy a G3 tower. Next came the Grape iMac for desktops (which all still work), and the rest is history.

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Comments (2)
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  • synchrogeddon
    , contributor
    Comments (184) | Send Message
     
    We will see. 200$ post split sounds exciting, it would triple my investment at ~420$ :).
    24 Apr, 02:40 AM Reply Like
  • jackryanjr
    , contributor
    Comments (85) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Look back to the 2005 split and next 2 years of oscillation between $80 & $130. The price and new products will make it have the "cool factor" again. With prices in the multi-hundreds, considering the "fanboy" anger, retail investors look at apple as a snobby company. When it appears affordable, in any way, all the short noise will be shut out, as en equity play will be affordable vs. the only affordable trade to many today: options...

     

    Apple is to me what GE, T, & IBM were to my father. Meaning I have a nice base going back actual stock certificate days. I have traded it outside my base to great reward over the years.
    24 Apr, 05:48 PM Reply Like
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