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Overriding philosophy: My orientation is that of a swing trader, intent on converting perceptions to profit. 1.Over 3 decades as a market observer and and independent trader. 2.Trained in investment banking, currently a private investor 3. I believe market volume and price interact similar to... More
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  • Mannkind, A Study In Market Behavior 0 comments
    Jun 12, 2014 1:57 PM

    This a purely technical trader's comment on $MNKD's price action since April 2, 2014 to today June 11, 2014.

    Price range top at 11.13 on June 5, current price as I write this is 10.07.

    (I assume by now anyone interested in Mannkind has read over the history of written coverage of Alfred Mann and his historic diabetes related research work including the invention of the insulin pump, and the current coverage of the FDA pending approval of Afreeza --on April, 2, 2014 - MannKind Corp. MNKD said a Food and Drug Administration advisory committee recommended approval of the biopharmaceutical company's, and now the market awaits the July 15th scheduled approval of the FDA review committee).

    Technical charts can be likened to a form of Rorschach ink blot in that different observers interpret the same thing differently. (there are no 2 identical charts)

    A question I have regards Mannkind in particular: (some charts are more readable than others

    At the end of the day, the difference between a chart and an ink blot is the payoff.

    The question for me as a trader is can I discern a predictable pattern from the variety of technical indicators in order to execute a profitable trading plan?

    At present I have no position. I previously purchased and sold stock and options at a profit based on what I saw from both my readings of the current fundamental issues, and technical price action. In attempting to be empirical I am now on the sidelines.

    Here in summary is what I see:

    Since the price peak of 11.11 on June 5th, Thursday, I see gradual distribution and sell off of 10% on lighter volume. There is no hidden accumulation or underlying trend for the last 5 trading days that indicates that this distribution is tailing off. The slope (as measured by the rise and fall of the linear curve of the price over time during the last 6 days is exactly at -.046%. If you are mathematically inclined this is simply a mathematical verification of the price falling from 11.11 to 10.065 as I write this blog.

    A. It is the smoothed curve of the fall and in no way is an indication of the actual fall.

    B. The slope has no predictive value in and of itself.

    However, as an active observer I will be watching the slope, along with many other indicators, in the future, to try to get a reading on what I should do as a trader.

    Good Luck traders,


    Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in MNKD over the next 72 hours.

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