Richard Robinso...'s  Instablog

Richard Robinson, Ph.D.
Send Message
Drawing upon more than a quarter century of experience teaching economics and finance at several prestigious colleges and universities, Richard now shares his vast wealth of knowledge with our readers. Richard is an expert in the field of risk management and reinsurance, and he’s guided more... More
  • The Hidden Danger Of IPOs 2 comments
    Apr 24, 2014 1:41 PM

    In 1720, an English printer developed a prospectus for an IPO with no earnings.

    Blazoned across the prospectus was the company's mission statement, "A company for carrying on an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is."

    Crazy, right?

    The printer offered up 5,000 shares of his worthless company for 100 pounds each.

    By 3 PM the next day, the owner had sold the allotted shares. He then skipped town and was never heard from again.

    Nearly 300 years later, the IPO market is experiencing very similar problems…

    Earnings Take a Backseat

    The number of companies that IPO'd in Q1 was higher than any first quarter since 2000.

    A total of 64 companies went public - double the number of IPOs in Q1 2013.

    And much like the English printer above, nearly 70% of the companies had no earnings prior to their IPO.

    Don't expect the trend to reverse course, either. In fact, it's only getting worse…

    Historically, Q1 is the slowest quarter for IPOs - accounting for just 20% of IPO activity in any given year. So we should only see the number of offerings increase as the year continues.

    Sure enough, the IPO pipeline now stands at 122 companies, based on data from Renaissance Capital. And an additional 103 firms have recently submitted filings, resulting in a 186% increase in IPOs quarter over quarter.

    Of those companies, only 26% boast any profits at all.

    Essentially, these companies are staying afloat on momentum alone (i.e., investor hype), instead of actual revenue.

    How can this model be sustainable?

    Spoiler alert: It's not…

    IPOs Stuck in the Danger Zone

    The chart below shows how profitable companies that go public fare against firms with zero earnings…

    As you can see, unprofitable companies outperform in the first year of an IPO - due entirely to investor hype. By the third year, though, they're only up 36% - compared to 153% for profitable companies.

    What's more, analysis by SBA Research shows that fully one-third of unprofitable IPOs fail in three years. By year five, 55% hit the skids. And 61% are history by year 10.

    Bottom line: The IPO market is clearly full of landmines right now. And it's only going to get more chaotic, as we could see a total of 320 IPOs this year - the highest number since 1999.

    Ultimately, the safest bet is to avoid IPOs at all costs. If you can't stay away, however, be sure to cut through the hype and focus only on companies that sport actual profits.

    Ahead of the tape,

    Richard Robinson, Ph.D.

Back To Richard Robinson, Ph.D.'s Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (2)
Track new comments
  • Anyoption
    , contributor
    Comments (1367) | Send Message
    These are definitely precarious times with all of these worthless IPOs. But the "greed is good" mantra will always win when it comes to the owners, the investment bankers, and even the bankers. Sadly, it's just not sustainable.
    25 Apr 2014, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • Richard Robinson, Ph.D.
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » You're absolutely right... unfortunately we just don't seem to learn from the past.
    28 Apr 2014, 09:29 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.